Israel, the UK and the world

Updated May 21, 2025

UK escalates criticism of Israel

What’s happened: The British Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary have made highly critical statements of the Israeli government’s policy in Gaza.

Speaking in parliament, Keir Starmer said, “We’re horrified by the escalation from Israel. We repeat our demand for a ceasefire as the only way to free the hostages.”
David Lammy meanwhile accused the current Israeli government of “isolating Israel from its friends and partners around the world” in what is arguably the UK’s strongest recent condemnation of Israel.
Lammy specifically referenced and condemned recent comments from Israel’s Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, who “even spoke of Israeli forces cleansing Gaza, destroying what’s left of residents, Palestinians being relocated, he said, to third countries.”
Lammy branded these comments as dangerous extremism, adding that he condemned it “in the strongest possible terms”.
The British government also announced that it was suspending free trade negotiations with Israel, effective immediately, and that planned cooperation under the 2020 Bilateral Roadmap would be reviewed.
Writing on X (formerly known as Twitter), Minister for the Middle East and North Africa Falconer said he had summoned Israel’s Ambassador and “made clear the UK’s opposition to expanded military operations in Gaza and rising violence & intimidation by Israeli settlers against Palestinian communities in the West Bank. The UK will not stand by as this happens.”
The Israeli Foreign Ministry accused the British government of not advancing the free trade negotiations at all event prior to the announcement and suggested that “If, due to anti-Israel obsession and domestic political considerations, the British government is willing to harm the British economy — that is its own prerogative.”
The statement also argued that the sanctions were unjustified and regrettable, especially as they came days after an Israeli woman was murdered in a recent West Bank shooting attack.
Conservative Shadow Trade Minister Greg Smith condemned the UK government’s decision, telling The Telegraph: “It is an absurdity that the UK Government have taken a new stance which has won the support of Hamas – an organisation we proscribe as a terrorist organisation – and is the aggressor in the war with Israel.”
Several EU Foreign Ministers, including those of France and the Netherlands, have demanded a review of the EU-Israel Association Agreement, the treaty governing Israel-EU relations which has been in effect for 25 years. Yesterday EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas said that EU has decided to review the EU-Israel Association Agreement.
A total of 93 trucks entered the Gaza Strip yesterday through the Kerem Shalom crossing. They transported flour, baby food, medical equipment and medicine.

Context: Starmer and Lammy’s comments followed Monday’s joint statement by the British, French, and Canadian governments opposing Israel’s renewed military operations in Gaza.

That statement called for increased aid provision, and condemned settlement in expansion in the West Bank. It also ominously stated that “will not hesitate to take further action, including targeted sanctions.” It also referred to the current Israeli government’s actions as “egregious”, and claimed that its “escalation is wholly disproportionate.”
Hamas praised the joint statement, saying that it reflected a “principled stance” and was a “significant step in the right direction”.
Media reports throughout the day yesterday were dominated by the claim by UN humanitarian chief on BBC Radio 4 that “there are 14,000 babies that will die in the next 48 hours unless we can reach them.” This headline featured prominently next to media reports of the joint UK-France-Canada announcement as well as Lammy and Starmer’s comments.
This claim about 14,000 babies facing imminent death appeared to originate in an IPC report estimating that by March 2026 14,000 children under the age of 6 could be facing malnutrition. It is worth noting that even the IPC estimates of imminent famine in Gaza, which Fletcher’s claim grossly exaggerated, have been consistently wrong over the entire year and a half of the current war
It is notable that while the joint statement calls on Hamas “to release immediately the remaining hostages they have so cruelly held since 7 October 2023,” Starmer’s statement in parliament regarding the hostages employed an entirely different formulation: “We’re horrified by the escalation from Israel. We repeat our demand for a ceasefire as the only way to free the hostages.”
The joint statement criticised Israel directly and repeatedly. It singled out for praise (in the same sentence) the United States, Egypt, and Qatar. It described ending Hamas control of Gaza as a long-term goal, but did not offer any method of achieving that goal.
Any change in the EU-Israel Association Agreement is unlikely due to an anticipated veto by Hungary and the Czech Republic.
With US backing, Israel has endeavoured to establish the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, a mechanism for the distribution of humanitarian aid to Gazan civilians that would ensure that aid does not fall into Hamas hands. The Foundation is directed by the American social entrepreneur with a record of humanitarian work in conflict zones named Jake Wood.
Major international aid agencies have largely refused to work with the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, insisting that aid can only come through the same channels that were used before, and which have been repeatedly commandeered and exploited by Hamas.
The emergency aid which Israel let through this week was not directed by the Foundation.
The sanctions announced targeted three settler leaders, two outposts in the West Bank, and two organisations the FCDO alleges supports violence against local Palestinian communities. One of these settler leaders is Daniella Weiss, who the British government says “has been involved in threatening, perpetrating, promoting and supporting, acts of aggression and violence against Palestinian individuals”. Weiss is often known as the “Godmother” of the settler movement, and has been a leading figure in post-October 7 attempts by an extreme fringe of Israelis to resettle the Gaza Strip.

Looking Ahead: Negotiations are still ongoing in Qatar for a ceasefire that would include a release of hostages.

Despite some optimism over the past week, reports from the past two days indicate an impasse, and Israel has recalled its high-level negotiators, leaving behind more junior representatives with a narrower mandate to negotiate.
Talks had earlier focused on versions of the Witkoff initiative, which would have seen the release of up to ten of the twenty living hostages and a ceasefire of roughly two months.
There were also reports of newer initiatives involving a full hostage release and end to the war, but the gaps between the sides on the conditions for an end to the war — on issues like reconstruction, Hamas disarmament, and future governance of the Strip — are even larger.

May 20, 2025

Netanyahu pushes back on international criticism, as aid enters Gaza

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu has responded to a joint statement from the UK, France, and Canada condemning Israeli conduct in the West Bank and Gaza Strip which also threatened sanctions in the event of settlement growth.

In a statement released last night, Netanyahu said “By asking Israel to end a defensive war for our survival before Hamas terrorists on our border are destroyed and by demanding a Palestinian state, the leaders in London, Ottawa and Paris are offering a huge prize for the genocidal attack on Israel on October 7 while inviting more such atrocities.”
Netanyahu also reiterated that “Israel accepts President Trump’s vision and urges all European leaders to do the same”, and that in the event of Hamas releasing the remaining hostages, its leaders being exiled, and Gaza demilitarising, the war could “end tomorrow.”
The joint British, French, and Canadian statement opened by condemning Israel’s expansion of operations in the Gaza Strip, branded the recently announced aid provision expansion as “wholly inadequate”, and threatened “further concrete actions in response” unless Israel ceased its military options and lifted restrictions on humanitarian aid.
West Bank settlement expansion was specifically highlighted as another area of concern, which the statement said “undermined…the security of both Israelis and Palestinians” while threatening “targeted sanctions.”
The statement also condemned Hamas’sOctober 7 attacks against Israel while branding its response as “wholly disproportionate” and “egregious”, reiterating support for an immediate ceasefire and eventual implementation of a two-state solution, and a commitment to “work with the Palestinian Authority, regional partners, Israel and the United States to finalise consensus on arrangements for Gaza’s future, building on the Arab plan.”

Context: The UK, France, and Canada’s statement almost immediately followed Israel increasing its aid provision based on the US-led plan.

Yesterday, the first aid entered the Gaza Strip in eleven weeks, amounting to a total of five UN food lorries. This follows Prime Minister Netanyahu agreeing to allow a “minimal” amount of food into the coastal enclave to prevent famine.
While the UN’s humanitarian chief, Tom Fletcher, welcomed this development, he also described it as a “drop in the ocean” and said that “significantly more aid must be allowed into Gaza, starting tomorrow morning”.
Israel emphasises that it monitors the level of essential goods in Gaza daily via COGAT and that aid is to supplied based on actual need.
Previously, during a 42-day ceasefire starting in January, Israel facilitated 25,000 aid trucks into Gaza — creating a surplus of food and goods.
There is renewed concern in Israel that while the aid delivery mechanism remains unchanged the trucks will be susceptible to being taken over by Hamas.
Concurrently, Israeli negotiators were also instructed to remain in Doha despite the apparent lack of a breakthrough which could lead to a ceasefire and the release of the remaining 58 hostages, held in brutal captivity now for 592 days.
Adam Boehler, the US special envoy for hostage response, also said that “we’re closer than we ever were” to reaching an agreement without providing further details.
Some in Israel have criticised the government’s current policy. In Yediot Ahronot, Nadav Eyal writes that “Had the government presented a realistic plan for Gaza’s future, and had it genuinely engaged in dialogue with Canada, France, Britain…. Israel might have been able to exert the necessary pressure on Hamas.” He adds that such pressure “without doubt, is very justified. For real security to prevail, Hamas has to truly give up power and disarm, to make way for an alternative administration. But for Israel to have a functioning society that is able to fight, we have to recover our hostages from the burning agonies of the fire in Gaza.”
The IDF is continuing its operations across the Gaza Strip as part of Operation Gideon’s Chariots, striking over 160 targets and dismantling a tunnel previously used to attack Israeli troops in the southern Gaza Strip.
There are also unconfirmed reports that an undercover Israeli special forces unit infiltrated Khan Yunis and eliminated Ahmad Sarhan, a senior member of the Popular Resistance Committees. The PRC is a small but aggressive group which is best known for abducting Gilad Shalit in 2006. The Israeli government has not commented on this story, but the PRC have announced Sarhan’s death, referring to him as a “special operations officer.”
The IDF has also confirmed that it conducted an air strike in Lebanon yesterday, targeting and killing a member of Hezbollah’s special operations Radwan Force in the Houla area.

Looking ahead: It is expected that US and Israel supported aid distribution hubs operated by US security contractors will open in the southern Gaza Strip next week. This will be a new mechanism, aimed at delivering aid more efficiently to the civilian population and circumventing Hamas. However, the UN and other agencies have indicated they will not co-operate with these plans, arguing they contradict fundamental humanitarian principles of impartiality, independence, and neutrality.

The Houthis have claimed that they will now enforce a naval blockade on the northern Israeli port city of Haifa, and that ships heading there would be targeted.
The UN has also set a date for a French and Saudi sponsored conference on the two state solution which is due to take place from June 17 to 20 at the UN headquarters in New York. Its intentions is to set the conditions for more states to formally recognise Palestine.

May 19, 2025

Yuval Raphael wins Eurovision popular vote

Yuval Raphael, representing Israel, won the public vote this weekend at the Eurovision Song Contest, topping viewer polls across Europe, including in the UK.

Raphael is a survivor of the Nova music festival massacre on 7 October, having survived by playing dead beneath the bodies of others as Hamas gunmen stormed the event in southern Israel.

In the run-up to the contest, she faced significant abuse, including a foiled attempt to disrupt her performance during the final night.

Alongside the UK, Raphael won the public vote in 11 other countries, including host nation Switzerland, and finished second overall after the jury vote was factored in.

May 13, 2025

Edan Alexander reunited with his family

What’s happened: The kidnapped soldier was released yesterday evening after 584 days in captivity.

He is now recovering in hospital in Tel Aviv, having been reunited with his parents and siblings at an IDF base in the Gaza envelope.
Dr. Hagar Mizrahi, the director of the Health Ministry’s General Medicine Division, told Kan News, “Edan appears to be all right and is able to stand on his own two feet. He will need to be put through extensive tests to determine his true physical and emotional condition.” Mizrachi added that, “He’s independent, is speaking and appears to all of us to be okay. Having said that, we know that a lot of things can remain hidden behind that ‘okay.’”
Upon his release Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “This was achieved thanks to our military pressure, and the political pressure that was exerted by President Trump. That is a winning combination.”
Netanyahu added, that he had spoken with President Trump who expressed his commitment to Israel and “continuing to work with you in close cooperation in order to achieve all of our war objectives. To free all of the hostages and to defeat Hamas. They go together; they are intertwined with one another.”
Later last night the IDF announced that it attacked a number of prominent Hamas terrorists in a command and control compound that Hamas had established in Nasser Hospital in Khan Yunis.

Context: Though every hostage released is seen as a blessing, 58 hostages remain in captivity. Thirty five are understood to be dead. Twenty are alive, whilst the status of three is unclear.

Edan Alexander’s release was unlike all the others that have taken place until now, as this was a US led initiative that circumvented Israel.
Unlike in the past, Hamas held no release ceremony (reportedly at Trump’s specific demand) and nothing was given in exchange.
Also unlike the past, it was Steve Witkoff, the US Special Envoy (rather than an Israeli official) who was the person to receive the call from Alexander once Hamas handed him over to Red Cross officials.
Israel’s role was limited to agreeing to pause aerial intelligence gathering over Gaza and the facilitation of an access corridor in the Khan Yunis area to allow the Red Cross in and out.
There is speculation over the motives of Hamas to agree to this release without receiving something in return. Was it simply a good will gesture to curry favour with Trump during future talks, or was it part of a wider Qatari strategy (which along with the gift of a $400m luxury plane) meant to secure US support for ending the war on their terms.
This release is the first one since January 22^nd, and there is renewed hope that this will reinvigorate efforts to reach a new deal. Israel had already given their consent to Witkoff’s most recent proposal that reportedly includes the release of around half of the living hostages over a 40-day ceasefire, during which time intensive negotiations will look to release all the remaining captives and end the war.
Israel has continued to insist that Hamas cannot remain in power in Gaza on the day after the war, whist Qatar, perceived as Hamas’s main backer, have a vested interest in them remaining in situ.
Concerns remain over humanitarian conditions inside the Strip, although Israeli officials continuing to insist there are currently still enough supplies.
In parallel, the US is working on a new mechanism to allow aid to reach the Gazan civilian population whilst circumventing Hamas. Israel is keen to support any initiative that will deprive Hamas of its governing capabilities.
Born to Israeli parents, Alexander grew up in the US, moved to Israel after high school and joined the Golani infantry brigade.
Israeli media reported that upon his release, he described to his family being outnumbered 30 – 1 when he was captured on his Kissufim base on the Gaza border on October 7^th.
The fact that Trump was able to extract him – due to his dual nationality – has caused some disquiet in Israel and among other hostage families that have sadly concluded that holding US citizenship is worth more than just being Israeli.

Looking ahead: There is speculation as to whether Alexander might fly to Doha and meet President Trump. Although his medical condition is stable, he is likely to remain in hospital and not travel at this point.

Israeli negotiators led by the former Shin Bet deputy, and including the Coordinator for the Hostages and the Missing Persons Gal Hirsch, the prime minister’s foreign policy adviser, Ophir Falk, and Mossad and IDF Military Intelligence Directorate representatives, will travel to Doha today and are expected to remain there at least until Thursday to see if a new deal can be reached.
Meanwhile, the IDF has continued to prepare for a potential large-scale ground manoeuvre.

Edan Alexander is free. What comes next? Richard Pater, Director of BICOM, spoke with LBC on 12 May 2025 about the release of Edan and President Trump’s upcoming trip to the Middle East.

Listen now

May 9, 2025

US unveils Gaza aid plan

What’s happened: US envoy Steve Witkoff unveiled an American aid initiative for Gaza at the UN yesterday.

The US is looking to establish a Gaza Humanitarian Foundation which would operate four distribution sites in the Gaza Strip, serving 1.2 million people initially.
The Foundation would not be operated by the US government personnel, but rather private contractors and would not involve the IDF in its operations, instead relying on its own private security.
It would endeavour to distribute aid in a way that circumvents Hamas control and prevents out the possibility of Hamas profiting from it.
This proposal would be more in line with the IDF’s preference for aid to be distributed by a private international organisation not affiliated with Hamas or UNRWA. Top brass in the IDF have resisted calls by some ministers in government for the IDF to be directly responsible for distributing aid.
Fighting continued in the Gaza Strip yesterday. Two Israeli soldiers, Sergeant Yishai Elyakim Urbach, 20, from Zichron Yaakov and Staff Sergeant Yam Frid, 21, from Slait died in two separate incidents in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. Two other soldiers were seriously wounded in the same attacks.
Israel announced that of the 24 hostages officially presumed to be alive, there are grave concerns about three, two foreign hostages and one Israeli. Families of all three have been informed. This follows days of rumours on the heels of President Trump’s references to 21 living hostages, rather than the official number of 24.

Context: In parallel with the IDF’s resumption of fighting in Gaza since mid-March, no aid has been allowed into the Strip.

During the last hostage deal around 600 trucks of aid entered the strip every day which allowed Hamas to replenish and stockpile goods, but those could run out in the next few weeks.
Earlier this week, there was a clash between the IDF Chief of Staff Zamir and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, after the minister declared it was unnecessary to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza. Zamir reportedly responded, “You don’t understand what you are saying. You are endangering us all. There is international law and we are committed to it. We cannot starve the Strip, your statements are dangerous.”
Israel had hoped that the temporary block on aid would create internal pressure on Hamas to agree to a new hostage deal, but this has not transpired.
Ahead of Trump’s visit to the region next week there was some hope that his presence would serve as a catalyst for the sides to reach an understanding around the Witkoff / Egyptian parameters31(12.7%).
Meanwhile, it is now being reported that the US is pursuing a broad defence deal with the Saudis and no longer conditioning it on normalisation of ties with Israel. If true, this would be a dramatic reversal of a longstanding US policy, and significant shift in a major policy priority of both the Biden administration and the first Trump administration.
This would be the third time in recent weeks that the US appears to have distanced itself from Israeli policy positions. The first was when Trump announced the resumption of talks with Iran, whilst sitting alongside Prime Minister Netanyahu. The second was earlier this week, when the US announced it was ending its bombing campaign against the Houthis, on the same day Israel attacked Yemen in response to the missile attack on Ben Gurion Airport.
In addition, President Trump’s flattering remarks about Turkish President Erdogan and the announced withdrawal of US forces from Syria have also raised concerns in Jerusalem.
The new US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, known both for his strong pro-Israel views and his loyalty to Trump, defended the US ceasefire with the Houthis in an interview with Israel’s Channel 12 News in unusually blunt language, saying, “The United States isn’t required to get permission from Israel to make some type of arrangement that would get the Houthis from firing on our ships.”
Since the renewal of hostilities in March, eight Israeli soldiers have fallen in combat in Gaza and one died in an accident near the Strip. The latest deaths take the number of troops killed since the start of the war to 856, including 414 since the launch of the ground operation inside Gaza in November 2023.
As well as the fighting in Gaza, the IDF remains active across other fronts including the West Bank and Lebanon. Most recently, the Israel Air Force carried a significant air strike in southern Lebanon yesterday, reportedly against a large Hezbollah tunnelling project near the Israeli border.

Looking Ahead: The IDF continues its preparations for a major offensive in Gaza. Thousands of reserve soldiers have already been called up. Speaking to reservists yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “to Hamas I say one thing: The rules are about to change very soon.”

It is widely believed that a major military operation will not get underway until after President Trump’s Middle East visit next week.
The very public nature of the preparations, while obviously eliminating the element of surprise, are understood to be a means of pressuring Hamas to agree to a hostage deal and ceasefire on terms that are more agreeable to Israel.

May 7, 2025

Israel strikes Yemen again, as Trump announces end of US offensive

What’s happened: For a second time within 24 hours the Israeli Air Force (IAF) jets struck strategic targets in Houthi-controlled Yemen.

Among the targets struck were runways, aircraft, and infrastructure at Sanaa International Airport which put it out of commission and disrupted three scheduled flights.
The IDF said that the airport was used “for transferring weapons and operatives, and is regularly operated by the Houthi regime for terror purposes.”
Prime Minister Netanyahu commented that Israeli planes “attacked the airport in Sanaa, an airport that enables the terrorist army and allows for the entry by air to the terrorist state, which enables the firing of missiles at us.”
Prior to the strike, the IDF issued an “urgent” warning to civilians to evacuate the airport area immediately.
IAF jets also hit several power stations near Sanaa and a cement factory north of the city, which the IDF said, “constitutes a blow to the regime’s economy and its military buildup.”
The strikes came in response to repeated Houthis missiles targeting Israel, one of which landed inside the perimeter of Ben Gurion Airport on Sunday.
Dozens of IAF aircraft once again took part in the operation, including fighter jets, refuelers and intelligence gathering planes. The IDF said the fighter jets dropped 50 munitions on the targets.
This morning the IDF said they shot down a UAV launched from Yemen, before it entered Israeli airspace. As such no sirens were sounded.

Trump announcement: In a move that surprised Israel officials, President Trump declared that the US is ending its (almost) two month bombing campaign targeting the Houthis.

Trump said the Houthis approached the administration on Monday night indicating “they want to stop the fighting.”
Trump added, “It’s not a deal….They said, ‘Please don’t bomb us anymore and we’re not going to attack your ships.’”
The Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi confirmed on X that his country mediated talks between the Houthis and the US, adding “in the future, neither side will target the other, including American vessels, in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait, ensuring freedom of navigation and the smooth flow of international commercial shipping.”

For context on the strikes on Yemen – see yesterday’s briefing

Context: Trump’s announcement was the second time in recent weeks that he surprised Israel officials, after he announced that the US would hold talks with Iran while Prime Minister Netanyahu was sat next to him in the White House.

Israeli officials were initially disappointed by the announcement. Despite the US attacks, the Houthis still maintain capacity to launch missiles and drones.
However the initial assessment in Jerusalem is that Trump’s announcement would not affect Israel nor restrict its freedom of action against the Houthis.
Earlier this week, the Israeli security cabinet approved Operation Gideon’s Chariots, which involves intensifying the military activity in Gaza. It is only expected to begin after Trump’s visit, and only if no hostage deal can be reached.
President Trump said last night that only 21 hostages in Gaza are still alive. The Hostage and Missing Families Forum issued a statement this morning saying that the number of living hostages, as they had been officially informed, was 24. The forum added that if there was any new information that they have not been given, they wanted to receive it immediately. It echoed a comment made last week by the Prime Minister’s wife Sara that there were fewer than 24 hostages still alive.
Ahead of Trump’s arrival, mediators have reportedly increased the pressure on Hamas in an effort to reach a new hostage deal.
The US are apparently encouraging Hamas’s two biggest supporters – Turkey and Qatar to reduce their support for Hamas, and to induce them to compromise.
In addition, Hamas claims that Egypt has begun to pressure it to agree to dismantle its military wing.

Looking ahead: It is anticipated that the Houthis will continue to try and attack Israel. President of the Houthis Supreme Political Council, Mahdi al-Mashat, warned in response, “To all Zionists, from now on, stay in shelters or leave to your homelands immediately, for your failed government will no longer be able to protect you.”

Relating to the strikes in Yemen, Defence Minister Katz said that this also constituted a “warning to the head of the Iranian octopus: You bear direct responsibility for the attack by the Houthi tentacle against the State of Israel, and you will also be held accountable for the results.”
Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer is in Washington and is expected to meet US officials in the White House today and coordinate positions ahead of Trump’s visit to the region next week.
At present Trump is not scheduled to stop in Israel during his visit, but there are several weighty issues that do affect Israel, including the talks with Iran, hopes for another hostage deal and a potential defence agreement between US and Saudi Arabia.

May 7, 2025

Next Pope from Israel? Meet Cardinal Pizzaballa

As the conclave to elect a new pope begins today, one name stands out among Vatican watchers and Middle East experts alike: Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa. The Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem is widely seen as papabile – a potential future pope.

Pizzaballa, a Franciscan friar who has spent most of his priestly life on the ground in the Holy Land, has been leading the Catholic Church across Israel, Jordan, the Palestinian territories, and Cyprus since 2020. Apart from his native Italian, he speaks English, Hebrew, and Arabic.

He enjoyed a close relationship with the late Pope Francis, who valued his deep knowledge of the region and commitment to interfaith dialogue. Francis regularly turned to him for advice on navigating the complexities of the Middle East — entrusting him with sensitive missions and consultations that helped shape Vatican policy toward the region.

Notably, in June 2014, Pope Francis entrusted Pizzaballa with organizing a historic peace prayer at the Vatican Gardens, bringing together Israeli President Shimon Peres and Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas.

Throughout his career, he has not hesitated to voice his opinions on sensitive issues. He criticized Israel’s construction of the barrier between the West Bank and Jerusalem and participated in protests against it in 2015.

At the same time, before becoming a bishop, he criticized Palestinian leaders for blaming all problems solely on the Israeli occupation of Gaza and the West Bank, reflecting his nuanced view of the region’s conflicts.

His moral credibility was powerfully underscored in October 2023, when he offered himself to Hamas in exchange for Israeli children taken hostage during the October 7 attacks. Though the exchange never took place, the gesture resonated in Israel and attracted attention, especially from the Catholic community around the world.

In the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict, Pizzaballa has advocated for an end to the war and called for humanitarian access to Gaza. He was a signatory to the “Statement on the Escalating Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza,” which called for de-escalation.

On Christmas Eve 2023, visiting Bethlehem, Pizzaballa donned a Palestinian keffiyeh and called for peace in the region. In solidarity with those affected by the war, he co-signed the Christmas message by the Patriarchs and Heads of Churches in Jerusalem, urging Christians to refrain from public celebrations.

If elected, Pizzaballa would not only be a historic choice — the first pope with deep roots in modern Israel.

Learn more about the late Pope Francis and his relationship with Israel and the Middle East in the latest episode of our podcast, featuring veteran journalist and Middle East expert Henrique Cymerman.

Listen now

April 30, 2025

UK backs Palestinian Authority with MoU

What’s happened: In London, the UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy and the Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Strategic Cooperation.

The document outlines in very general terms the commitments of the two governments to cooperate on a range of issues, including climate change, gender, culture, and education.
It commits both sides to diplomatic solutions in line with UN Security Council resolutions without referencing any specific ones.
In the memorandum, the UK “reiterates the centrality of the Palestinian Authority as the only legitimate governing entity in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including in Gaza,” obliquely rejecting the status quo since 2007 of a separate Hamas-led government in Gaza.
The document makes repeated references to Palestinian statehood as a goal and to the 1967 lines as the basis for a future international border, and includes East Jerusalem as part of the West Bank.
The Memorandum includes a Palestinian commitment to hold Presidential and Parliamentary elections “within the shortest feasible timeframe,” and stipulates that such elections must include the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip, implicitly extending the feasible timeframe well into the distant future. No such election has been held in two decades. The last one was called in 2021, but it was cancelled by the Palestinian Authority (PA) itself. Mahmoud Abbas has ruled as President of the PA since the last elections in 2005, extending his mandate well beyond his original four-year term.
While the Palestinian Authority’s Prime Minister was in London, the newly appointed Vice President of the PLO, Hussein Al-Sheikh, travelled to Riyadh to meet top Saudi officials to discuss what is widely believed to be an upcoming American diplomatic initiative to be unveiled by President Trump during his scheduled trip to Saudi Arabia.

Context: Since the October 7^th massacre, there has been a campaign afoot in various European states to recognise Palestinian statehood unilaterally, without a peace agreement. This was done despite the fact that there are two competing governments in these territories: one led by Fatah from Ramallah and one by Hamas from Gaza. Norway, Spain, and Ireland have already carried out such a recognition, and France has indicated that it may do so as well this summer.

To that end, the MoU’s reference to the “importance of recognition as a contribution to the two-state solution” can be read as an indication that the UK Government is considering a similar move.
Signing MoU with the PA could be viewed as an attempt by the Labour government to solidify its position prior to the incoming local elections across England as they face opposition from pro-Gaza Independents in some areas.
A Palestinian state has not come into being in the various rounds of final status talks since the Oslo Accords (Camp-David / Clinton Parameters and Taba negotiations in 2000-1, the Annapolis talks in 2007-8, and the Kerry negotiations in 2013-4) not because Israel or the international community has refused one, but because each time the Palestinian side rejected the prospect of statehood if the price of statehood was full reconciliation with the presence of a neighbouring Jewish state and the termination of all claims and conflict.
In particular, the Palestinian side at these negotiations demanded a “right of return” for the descendants of refugees from the 1948 war.
Recognising a state now that has not been formed and does not in fact exist would not change the reality on the ground for the Palestinians; only a full peace agreement with Israel can do that. But it would set the stage for even more abuses of the international system, in particular international courts, for hostile actions against Israel.
Al-Sheikh’s appointment last week as a deputy to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas puts him in an advantageous, but far from guaranteed, position to succeed the ailing Palestinian President. He is seen as close to the Saudis and someone both Israeli and Western officials have worked well with in the past.
Abbas’ appointment of a deputy and, by implication, a favoured candidate for succession comes a week after his much reported condemnation of Hamas and his demand that they release the hostages and end Gaza’s suffering.

Looking ahead: In any negotiated settlement for an Israeli-Palestinian peace, the two sides will have to come to an agreement on the well-known list of final status issues: sovereignty, borders, Jerusalem, security, refugees, and settlements.

It is notable that the UK position as expressed in this memorandum predetermines the outcome of the first three, and all in line with the Palestinian and not the Israeli position.
In Israel it is widely believed that a Palestinian state on the West Bank, especially one proclaimed and recognised without a peace agreement with Israel, will quickly become a Hamas stronghold, rendering all of Israel’s population centres threatened with rocket attacks and October 7-style rampages, as happened following Israel’s withdrawal of settlers and soldiers from Gaza. Moreover, the dangling of a symbolic gesture such as recognition as a reward not for peacemaking but for an enormity like October 7^th incentivises more violence, more rejectionism, and more war.

April 24, 2025

US Secretary of State Rubio reiterates Iran cannot enrich uranium

What’s happened: US Secretary of State Rubio said yesterday that Iran could be allowed a civil nuclear programme but emphasised that it must refrain from enriching uranium.

In an interview on Bari Weiss’s podcast Rubio said, “If Iran wants a civil nuclear programme, they can have one just like many other countries in the world have one. That is, they import enriched material.”
Rubio also reiterated President Trump’s longstanding position that diplomacy was preferable to military action, while praising Special Envoy Witkoff’s efforts in negotiating with Iran.
With US-Iranian talks ongoing, President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke by phone on Tuesday, with Trump later saying that they were “on the same side of every issue.”
The call follows a second round of talks between the US and Iran hosted at the Omani Embassy in Rome where the Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, said that he and Witkoff had “managed to reach a better understanding on a series of principles and goals.”
Witkoff had previously stated that the US would accept a cap on Iranian nuclear enrichment. However, a day later, he U-turned and asserted that all enrichment would have to end.
In parallel, Mohammed Eslami, the Head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation, has confirmed that Iran has begun fortifying tunnel systems linked to its nuclear project, explaining that “efforts are ongoing…[to] expand protective facilities.”

Context: While the US seemingly open to Iran developing and maintaining a civil nuclear energy programme if it refrains from enriching its own uranium, Israel is taking a less compromising position.

In parallel to the negotiations Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei laid out his country’s red lines for negotiations that include:
- Not dismantling any of their centrifuges.
- Not lowering uranium enrichment below 3.67% (the level agreed in the JCPOA 2015 nuclear agreement).
- Not ceasing missile programmes (that currently remain outside the scope of the JCPOA).
- Guarantees that the US will not withdraw from a future deal (as President Trump did in 2018).
Prime Minister Netanyahu has said that the only diplomatic solution to the nuclear crisis with Iran is the ‘Libya option’ in which all existing infrastructure in Iran will be dismantled or is shipped out of the country.
A recent New York Times article claimed Trump had blocked an Israeli military attack on nuclear facilities, with the administration wanting to give more time for diplomacy.
In the context of these military threats, evidence that Tehran has begun fortifying tunnel systems linked to its main nuclear facility – that could potentially store highly enriched uranium, and other undeclared nuclear materials, or advanced centrifuges – is pertinent.
The evidence was taken from commercial satellite imagery taken over Iran at the end of March 2025, and published in a report by the Institute for Science and International Security. The Institute’s President, David Albright, has suggested that the new tunnels could become operational relatively soon, and that it was highly unlikely that UN nuclear inspectors would be granted access to them.
Israel has long attempted to undermine and weaken Iran’s nuclear programme, primarily through covert and deniable means including cyber-attacks, sabotaging facilities, and targeted assassinations of nuclear scientists and officials.
All these efforts are assumed to be paused while Israel closely follows US efforts to reach a diplomatic solution.
Although not party to the talks, Israel will be hoping that Netanyahu’s personal ties – along with those of Minister Dermer – will be able to influence the US position.

Looking ahead: A third round of US-Iran nuclear talks will take place on Saturday, this time returning to Muscat in Oman.

This upcoming round has been described as both “technical” and “high-level”, and is understood to focus on agreeing a framework for a potential nuclear deal which would not be dissimilar to the JCPOA.

April 17, 2025

Trump and the Iranian nuclear project

New BICOM research: Ahead of the highly anticipated second round of US–Iran talks in Rome this Saturday, BICOM’s latest paper examines the US position and the strategic implications of a potential deal for Israel and the wider Middle East.

Key points:

For the first time in a decade, the US has opened direct talks with Iran over its nuclear programme, while simultaneously threatening military action if an agreement acceptable to the Trump administration is not reached within sixty days.
In parallel, American military action in Yemen – together with the ostentatious forward deployment of naval assets in striking distance of Iran – is intended to signal that the US will not hesitate to use force if negotiations over a nuclear deal with Iran fail to achieve an agreement.
The US is demanding improvements over the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) on four major issues of contention:
- time limits on nuclear activities,
- weaponisation capabilities,
- international inspections,
- ballistic missile programme.
While the basic points of contention between the sides remain unchanged from a decade ago, the larger geostrategic environment is dramatically different. So too is Iran’s bargaining position. On the one hand, it is at a far more advanced stage in its nuclear development. At the same time, it has seen its proxy forces in the region degraded and under pressure in Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, and Yemen. And it has seen its own air defences largely rendered useless by Israeli strikes.
President Trump seems determined to reach a deal, one that he can convince himself and his constituents is better than the one achieved by President Obama signed in 2015. His choice of real estate mogul Steve Witkoff, a trusted non-ideological dealmaker that he has relied on in other foreign policy crises, as his envoy is further evidence that Trump is keen to make a deal, even – as seen in discussions over the future of Ukraine – at the cost of alienating allies or sacrificing long-held principles.
Israel is most directly affected by the outcome of these negotiations, but not a part of them. While Israeli action against Iranian capabilities and proxies has been leveraged to bolster the American negotiating position, it will ultimately be American, not Israeli, interests that determine the talks’ outcome.

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