LATEST

Other

Key background

Updated November 6, 2024

Israel legislates to restrict UNRWA 

What happened: On Monday, the Israeli parliament passed two bills against UNRWA (the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East). One bill bans them from operating from inside Israel (East Jerusalem). The second prevents Israel authorities from engaging with the agency and their work in Gaza and the West Bank.A majority of 92-10 MKs voted in support of the bill effectively banning the agency, with 87-9 doing so against another bill which statutorily prevents state authorities from being in contact with it.The legal mechanism for implementing this bill will be the revoking of a 1967 exchange of notes which provide UNRWA with the basis to conduct its activities.Unless challenged in Israel’s courts, the legislation will take effect in 90 days from now. The case against UNRWA: Israel and UNRWA’s relationship has long been difficult, with tensions coming to a head in the aftermath of last year’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel.The Israeli government has alleged that at least 19 UNRWA employees participated in these attacks, prompting an investigation by the UN’s own watchdog (the Office of Internal Oversight Services). In August, it was deemed that there was enough evidence to dismiss nine employees based on Israel’s allegations.In July, Israel wrote to UNRWA listing 100 staff members it further alleged were members of terrorist organisations in the Gaza Strip, including Hamas.According to the Israeli Ministry of Defence the picture is even more severe, suggesting 1,500 UNRWA workers, (more than 10 per cent of UNRWA’s staff in Gaza) have active ties to terrorist organisations.One of those named was Muhammad Abu Attawi who has since been identified as a commander in Hamas’s special operations division and lead the killing of Israelis fleeing the Nova Festival on the morning of 7th October. In the past week, UNRWA has confirmed he was employed by the agency as a driver since 2022 and that no action was taken against him, despite warnings about his terrorist affiliations.Last month, it also emerged that Hamas’s designated leader in Lebanon, Fateh Sherif Abu el-Amin, was the head teacher of an UNRWA school in al-Bass, after his assassination in an airstrike. UNRWA confirmed that although he was an agency employee, he had been “put on administrative leave without pay in March, and was undergoing an investigation following allegations that UNRWA received about his political activities.”The IDF has also uncovered extensive Hamas military infrastructure adjacent to and underneath UNRWA’s Gaza Strip sites, including a significant tunnel network and data centre under the agency’s local headquarters in February 2024. Israel has further claimed that it is inconceivable that UNRWA officials were unaware of Hamas’s military presence in such close proximity.    UNRWA has long been criticised for its failure to remove inciteful content which glorifies terrorism and demonises Israel and Jews from educational materials used in its schools. Additionally, UNRWA educators have also been identified as sharing hateful and inciteful content on social media.UNRWA is also the only UN agency dedicated to supporting refugees from a specific region impacted by one conflict, and works separately from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. It has also been criticised for perpetuating Palestinians’ refugee status which is inherited, thus undermining the prospects of finding a positive and lasting resolution.Speaking during the debate, one of the bill’s sponsors Likud MK Bismuth said, “UNRWA is not a refugee aid organisation, it is a Hamas aid organisation. UNRWA employees were full partners in the brutal, incomprehensible massacre committed against us.” International pressure: Israeli diplomats had warned, that even among their closest allies there was strong pressure not to pass these bills.  However the momentum and support from both government and opposition helped them pass with substantial majorities.  The UK and US along with Germany, France, Australia, Canada, Japan, and South Korea have all condemned the passing of yesterday’s bill, warning that it could have “devastating consequences” in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.In a statement released yesterday, Prime Minister Starmer said “The UK is gravely concerned at the UNRWA bills that Israel’s Knesset has passed. This legislation risks making UNRWA‘s essential work for Palestinians impossible, jeopardising the entire international humanitarian response in Gaza and delivery of essential health and education services in the West Bank…We urge Israeli lawmakers to ensure that UNRWA can continue to deliver its essential work.” Looking ahead / implementation: The legislation goes into effect in 90 days. In that time Israel will need to present working solutions to replace UNRWA.     The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office issued a statement asserting that Israel is prepared to work with international partners to ensure that humanitarian aid can still reach Gazan civilians in the 90 days before the law is implemented.It also said “In the 90 days before this legislation takes effect – and after – we stand ready to work with our international partners to ensure Israel continues to facilitate humanitarian aid to civilians in Gaza in a way that does not threaten Israel’s security.”It is expected that Israel will be looking to work closely with other international aid organisations like the World Food Program or UNICEF to fill the gap.    Regarding UNRWA’s role inside Israel (primarily related to health provisions and education in East Jerusalem) the sponsors of the legislation insist that the state can take over these responsibilities

October 27, 2024

Blinken in Israel

United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with Israelis during a protest calling for the release of Israelis held kidnapped by Hamas terrorists in Gaza, in Tel Aviv on May 1, 2024. Photo by Avshalom Sassoni/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** ארצות הברית אנתוני בלינקן שר החוץ האמריקאי מלחמת חרבות ברזל הפגנה מפגינים שבויים חטופים

Blinken visit: US Secretary of State Blinken was in Israel on Tuesday. He met with Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defence Minister Gantz, President Herzog and families of hostages held in Gaza. 

  • His meeting in Jerusalem with Netanyahu lasted for around two and a half hours, including a one-on-one meeting and a broader conversation with their respective teams. Netanyahu’s office described the meeting as “friendly and productive.” 
  • For Israel the top agenda item remains the ongoing Iranian threat: “The prime minister thanked the American secretary of state for the support of the US in the fight against Iran’s axis of evil and terrorism.”
  • Regarding Lebanon, Prime Minister Netanyahu highlighted the “need to effect a security and diplomatic change in the north that will enable Israel to return its residents safely to their homes.”
  • Also yesterday, Hezbollah formally took responsibility for the drone strike on Netanyahu’s home in Caesarea last weekend.
  • According to the Prime Minister’s Office, “The American Secretary of State expressed the US’s deep shock over the Iranian attempt, via Hezbollah, to eliminate the Prime Minister of Israel, and made it clear that this was an exceptionally extreme incident. The Prime Minister thanked the Secretary of State and said that this is a dramatically significant issue that must not be ignored.”
  • The pair also discussed the ongoing fighting in Gaza, efforts to reach a hostage deal as the “two sides discussed the issue of the governing framework in Gaza on the day after the war.” 
  • According to the State Department, Blinken spoke of the, “importance of charting a new path forward in the post-conflict period that allows Palestinians to rebuild their lives and provides governance, security, and reconstruction for Gaza. The Secretary emphasised the need for Israel to take additional steps to increase and sustain the flow of humanitarian assistance into Gaza and ensure that assistance reaches civilians throughout Gaza.”
  • Once more, “The Secretary reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to Israel’s security.”
  • Later in Tel Aviv, Blinken met with representatives of the seven families of hostages that remain in Gaza with dual US citizenship. According to the families they asked him to, “Apply more pressure on the mediating countries, especially Qatar, to restart negotiations and leverage Sinwar’s elimination into a deal for releasing all hostages.” 

Context: This was Blinken’s 11th visit To Israel since the war began and a further example that despite disagreements, the two allies remain closely coordinated on all the major issues on the security and diplomatic agenda. 

  • Regarding the Iran threat, Israeli leaders thanked Secretary Blinken for his support – in particular the deployment of US THAAD missile defence system recently installed in Israel for the first time. 
  • In his meeting with President Herzog, Herzog stressed the northern arena where, “we’ve been constantly attacked for a year already, and definitely in the last few weeks, constantly attacked from Lebanon”, is “why we have to take all the steps possible to eradicate the capabilities of Hezbollah, to move forward in preventing the onslaught against the citizens of Israel, and the cities and towns, their attacks with drones, missiles, rockets, their attack on the private home of the Prime Minister – it’s all part of a major campaign which, at the end of it all is led and commanded in Tehran. And that is why, of course, a major answer has to be made towards Tehran.”
  • On Gaza, the US sees a new window of opportunity following the death of Hamas leader Sinwar to pursue a hostage deal.
  • In tandem, the US are keen to increase humanitarian aid to assist the civilian population of Gaza.
  • As part of this effort (and partly in response to the joint letter last week from Secretaries Blinken and Austin), Israel has facilitated the entrance of  237 humanitarian aid trucks into northern Gaza in last 9 days.  
  • The decision was apparently criticised by head of the Shin Bet who argued aid should be kept at a level consistent with international law but not beyond that. The concession for increasing aid should be part of the levers used to induce a hostage deal.  
  • There is also ongoing concern that Hamas is still able to take over the aid, syphoning it off to their fighters at the expense of the general population.  
  • Another important component of the conversations are ongoing diplomatic efforts, along with regional Arab allies, for a plan for future governance of the Gaza Strip. Although details have not been released, part of Blinken’s plan is place Gaza under the authority of a temporary caretaker – an international mission. Their role would be to deliver humanitarian aid, establish law and order, and lay the groundwork for future governance.

October 26, 2024

Israel launches retaliatory strikes on Iran

  • Overnight, Israel conducted a significant number of airstrikes against military targets across Iran in a long awaited reprisal for the missile and drone attacks in April and earlier this month. Strikes were reported in the Tehran, Karaj, Isfahan and Shiraz areas.
  • Tehran has said that it has a “duty” to defend itself, with Iranian news sources reporting that two soldiers were killed with no further details being offered.
  • It is understood that Israel provided Tehran with advance warning of the attack through several third parties, including Russia according to Sky News Arabia.
  • According to Axios, the strikes occurred in three waves. The first wave focused on degrading and destroying Iran’s aerial defence system, with the second and third targeting missile and drone bases as well as weapon production sites.
  • It was also reported that Israeli planes struck Iran-backed targets in Syria. 
  • In a statement released this morning, the IDF’s Spokesman, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said: “The retaliatory strike has been completed, and its objectives have been achieved…[targets] included missile manufacturing facilities used by Iran in its attacks on the State of Israel over the past year. Simultaneously, we targeted Iran’s surface-to-air missile arrays and Iranian aerial capabilities that were intended to restrict Israel’s aerial freedom of operation in Iran. Israel now has broader aerial freedom of operation in Iran”.
  • The IDF has confirmed that there have been no changes to Home Front Command guidelines to civilians.
  • The Times of Israel is reporting that “Iran confirmed an Israeli attack had targeted military sites in the capital Tehran and other parts of the country, but said it had caused limited damage and that air defence systems had successfully countered much of the attacks”.
  • Commenting on the strikes, Prime Minister Starmer has said “I am clear that Israel has the right to defend itself against Iranian aggression. I’m equally clear that we need to avoid further regional escalation and urge all sides to show restraint. Iran should not respond.”
  • The Biden administration has confirmed that it was notified about these strikes in advance, but did not participate in them in any way. A US official has said that if Iran retaliates, the US would be ready to again defend Israel against any attacks.
  • Speaking on the record, US National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett told reporters that “We urge Iran to cease its attacks on Israel so that this cycle of fighting can end without further escalation…Their response was an exercise in self-defense and specifically avoided populated areas and focused solely on military targets, contrary to Iran’s attack against Israel that targeted Israel’s most populous city”.
  • Saudi Arabia and the UAE have both condemned these strikes, albeit with Abu Dhabi not explicitly naming Israel in its statement. Jordan has also confirmed that no jets were allowed to use the country’s airspace during the strikes.
  • Observers are now considering what Iran does next. A limited response would effectively allow for de-escalation, thus ending the tit-for-tat cycle of violence. However, anything that endangers Israeli citizens, would elicit another significant response

October 21, 2024

Israel targets Hezbollah financial infrastructure  

An anti-missile system fires interception missiles as rockets fired from Lebanon, as it seen from the northern Israeli city of Kiryat Shmona, October 20, 2024. Photo by Ayal Margolin/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** כיפת ברזל מערכת יירוט לבנונים גבול הצפון יירוטים

Recent IDF airstrikes on Hezbollah targeted sites linked to the group’s financing in Beirut and south Lebanon.

  • The Al-Qard al-Hassan Association, directly funds Hezbollah’s terror activities, including the purchase weapons and payments to operatives in Hezbollah’s military wing.
  • These strikes follow an IDF warning on Sunday evening that “anyone located near sites used to fund Hezbollah’s terror activities must move away from these locations immediately.”
  • IDF spokesman, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, also said that “in the coming days, we will reveal how Iran funds Hezbollah’s terror activities by using civilian institutions, associations, and NGOs that act as fronts for terrorism”.
  • On Saturday, Hezbollah attempted to assassinate Prime Minister Netanyahu with a drone strike on his Caesarea.
  • While empty at the time, the residence only suffered “superficial” damage without causing any injuries, it is the first semi-successful targeting of the prime minister and his family since the outbreak of war last October.
  • Speaking after the strike, the prime minister said that “the agents of Iran who tried to assassinate me and my wife today made a bitter mistake” with Defence Minister Gallant adding that the attack was essentially on “the State of Israel and its government symbols.”
  • Iran has distanced itself from this attack, seeking to attribute responsibility to Hezbollah with Tehran’s permanent mission to the UN saying “the action in question has been carried out by Hezbollah in Lebanon.”
  • The attack received widespread condemnation with the Prime Minister Starmer, calling Prime Minister Netanyahu the same day to express his alarm about the attack. A readout of the call also says they discussed the death of Yahya Sinwar and the opportunity it presented to achieve a ceasefire and hostage release deal, the importance of getting more aid into Gaza, and reaching a political solution in Lebanon.
  • Fighting continues in Lebanon with the IDF’s Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi, telling troops that the IDF had killed an estimated 1500 Hezbollah operators and “taken out their entire command layer.”
  • Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s rocket and missile fire on Israel continues without abatement, with over 170 projectiles being fired yesterday.
  • In Gaza, the commander of the Israel’s 401stArmoured Corps brigade, Colonel Ehsan Daqsa, has been killed in fighting in Jabaliya in the northern Gaza Strip. Daqsa, 41 and from the Druze town of Daliyat al-Karmel is one of six full colonels to fall during the war, four of whom were killed on 7th October.
  • Colonel Daqsa’s death comes as the IDF intensifies its latest offensive on Jabaliya, saying that Hamas was attempting to re-establish itself there.

Whilst Israel remains in a multi front war, the security cabinet convened on Sunday night to review a variety of issues.

  • It is understood that preparations have been completed for an attack on Iran, however it remains unclear when and what the targets will be.
  • In anticipation of another Iranian counterstrike, the US have now deployed a THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defence) battery to help defend Israel. With Israel also requesting a second battery.
  • The second item at the security cabinet was the ongoing war in Lebanon. After the drone attack at prime minister’s house, Israel is expected to be preparing a tough response.
  • Israel’s latest targeting of Hezbollah’s financial institution is aimed in part to continue targeting their terror infrastructure. Secondly, it will limit their ability to pay their troops, further decreasing their motivation to fight.
  • Hezbollah terrorists captured in recent days as part of the IDF ground operation in southern Lebanon told interrogators that Hezbollah had paid money to UNIFIL personnel for use of their positions in southern Lebanon.
  • As a result of UNIFIL intransience to move north away from the fighting, it has been suggested that Israel will base any future arrangement on commitments made by the Lebanese Armed Forces and less on UNIFIL, as it turns out that the international force has been compromised.
  • Iranian made drones continue to pose a significant threat to Israel’s home front.  Of over 10,000 projectiles launched by Hezbollah in the last year around 1,500 have been drones. Of these around 170 have evaded interception.
  • The most recently drone attacks struck an old age home in Herzliya on Yom Kippur, an army base near Binyamina last week (that killed four soldiers in the dining room) and now the strike in Caesarea.
  • The drones are small and hard for radars to detect, plus they are capable of frequently changing altitude. Their slow flight speed also makes them challenging for Israeli fighter jets to intercept. The effectiveness of the drones is increasing due to the fact that they are fired in salvos, together with rockets, attempting to overwhelm Israel’s defence system.
  • A third issue being explored is a plan to distribute humanitarian aid in the northern Gaza Strip by a private US initiative.
  • In the meantime, according to COGAT, 114 humanitarian aid trucks entered Gaza yesterday via the Kerem Shalom and Erez crossings.
  • As part of Israel’s preparations for the winter months and the efforts to find solutions in the field of sanitation, 3,000 tons of hygiene products, 15 garbage containers, and for the first time – a sewage suction truck entered Gaza yesterday.
  • 8 tankers of fuel and 6 tankers of cooking gas were transferred into Gaza. 2 tankers of fuel were coordinated for humanitarian purposes in northern Gaza.
  • Today, between 10:00 and 14:00, the IDF will pause its operations in the Najar Arjalas neighbourhood in Khan Yunis to enable the movement of humanitarian aid.

With continued efforts to reach a ceasefire and diplomatic solution, US envoy Amos Hochstein will hold talks with Lebanese officials in Beirut later today.

  • According to latest reports the proposal would allow Israel to enforce the disarmament of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and maintain access to the country’s airspace.
  • Tomorrow, US Secretary of State Blinken is scheduled to arrive in Israel.

October 18, 2024

Hamas leader Sinwar killed in Rafah

Image credit: IDF Spokesperson

Yesterday, Israel confirmed that it killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, mastermind of the 7th October attacks, in the southern Gaza Strip on Wednesday.

  • During a routine operation, soldiers were clearing booby trapped buildings in the Tel al-Sultan area of Rafah when they became engaged in a firefight with three terrorists.
  • His final moments alive were captured on an IDF drone, injured in one hand, he throws a stick at the recording drone.   
  • Following his death in the gunfight, troops were able to enter the building and retrieve his body. 
  • Although a number of reports and photos of the body leaked throughout the day yesterday, Sinwar’s death was only confirmed in the evening following the results of DNA tests.

Responses: Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “While this is not the end of the war in Gaza, it’s the beginning of the end. To the people of Gaza, I have a simple message: This war can end tomorrow. It can end if Hamas lays down its arms and returns our hostages.”

  • He added, “a message of hope to the peoples of the region: The axis of terror that was built by Iran is collapsing before our eyes. Nasrallah is gone. His deputy Mohsen is gone. Haniyeh is gone. Deif is gone. Sinwar is gone. The reign of terror that the Iranian regime has imposed on its own people and on the peoples of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen – this too will come to an end. All those who seek a future of prosperity and peace in the Middle East should unite to build a better future.”   
  • Prime Minister Starmer said, “As the leader of the terrorist group Hamas, Yahya Sinwar was the mastermind behind the deadliest day in Jewish history since the Holocaust, as 1,200 people were slaughtered in Israel. Today my thoughts are with the families of those victims. The UK will not mourn his death.”
  • Starmer called for, “the release of all hostages, an immediate ceasefire and an increase in humanitarian aid are long overdue so we can move towards a long-term, sustainable peace in the Middle East.”
  • The White House issued a statement from President Biden saying: “This is a good day for Israel, for the United States, and for the world…Israel has had every right to eliminate the leadership and military structure of Hamas. Hamas is no longer capable of carrying out another October 7…There is now the opportunity for a “day after” in Gaza without Hamas in power, and for a political settlement that provides a better future for Israelis and Palestinians alike. Yahya Sinwar was an insurmountable obstacle to achieving all of those goals. That obstacle no longer exists. But much work remains before us.”
  • IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Hagari noted, “For the past year, Sinwar tried to escape justice. He failed. We said we would find him and bring him to justice, and we did. It was Yahya Sinwar who decided to wage war with Israel while hiding behind civilians in Gaza. Since the beginning of this war that Sinwar started on October 7th we’ve said: Our war is with Hamas, not the people of Gaza. We mean it. We are working to increase the amount of humanitarian aid including food, water and medicine that goes into Gaza – to the people of Gaza who are suffering because of Yahya Sinwar.”
  • Michael Herzog, Israel’s Ambassador to the US, wrote on X, “Today, the world is a safer place. Yahya Sinwar, the sadistic mastermind behind the heinous Hamas terror attack of October 7, has finally faced justice. Like the elimination of Osama Bin Laden and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, taking out Hassan Nasrallah and Yahya Sinwar opens up significant opportunities for a better and more secure region.

Sinwar’s death could be a decisive turning point in this war, that he ruthlessly planned and led.

  • His death is a crushing blow to Hamas and its leadership already decimated, with most of the senior commanders now dead.
  • It was Sinwar’s extremist stance that was considered a major impediment to securing a hostage deal. It is too soon to predict who may replace him and what stance they will take. 
  • The highest profile Hamas leader in Gaza is Sinwar’s brother and senior military commander Mohammad.  
  • The rest of the senor leadership are based in Qatar and include Khaled Meshaal, Mousa Abu Marzouk and Osama Hamdan.
  • Earlier this year, Sinwar was appointed Hamas’s politburo chief, having served as its leader in the Gaza Strip since 2017 when he replaced Ismail Haniyeh. Even within Hamas, he was known for his radical views.
  • Born in the Gaza Strip in 1962, he became involved with the Muslim Brotherhood in his youth and developed a close relationship with Hamas’s founder, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin in the 1980s. He established the group’s internal security organisation in 1987 and became known for his brutality towards those he suspected of collaborating with Israel.
  • He was arrested in 1988 and convicted by Israel of the murder of 12 Palestinians, receiving four life sentences. However, he only served 22 years before being released in 2011 as part of the Shalit deal.
  • Two years after returning to the Gaza Strip, he was elected a member of Hamas’s Political Bureau and became its head in 2017.
  • During his leadership tenure, Sinwar prioritised developing Hamas’s military strength and capabilities as well as consolidating relations with Tehran. 
  • He also succeeded in deceiving the Israeli government into believing Hamas wanted calm and to prove its ability to govern Gaza. This misconception was shattered by the 7th October attacks.
  • In reality, the result of his decisions brought disaster to his own people.
  • Meanwhile counter-insurgency operations have continued in northern Gaza.  The IDF released the names of 12 known Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad operatives who were targeted  inside a command and control centre embedded inside the ‘Abu Hassan’ School. According to the IDF, “These terrorists were involved in rocket attacks against Israeli territory, as well as in planning and committing terrorist attacks against IDF troops and the State of Israel in recent days.”
  • The IDF further noted, “prior to the strike, numerous steps were taken to mitigate the risk of harming civilians, including the use of precise munitions, aerial surveillance, and additional intelligence.”  Inside the school the IDF also discovered, “dozens of weapons, explosives, ammunition, explosive bricks, and mortars.”

Sinwar left no obvious successor, it remains to be seen who will now step up.  

  • There is already renewed hope that Sinwar’s death may now present an opportunity to open a substantive diplomatic effort. Speaking last night, President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed that there was now an opportunity to move towards a ceasefire and hostage agreement deal, and that Israel and the US would work together to achieve one.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu has also said that those holding hostages would be spared if they released their captives and laid down their weapons.

October 16, 2024

UNIFIL and its problematic role in southern Lebanon

Background

The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) was established by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in March 1978. Its primary objective was to assist the Lebanese government in regaining control in southern Lebanon. In May 2000, Israel withdrew from the security zone it had held in southern Lebanon for eighteen years. In accordance with UNSC resolution 425, the UN recognised and confirmed Israel’s withdrawal and compliance. This UN endorsed boundary is referred to as “the Blue Line.”Following the Second Lebanon War of 2006, UN resolution 1701 expanded UNIFIL’s mandate to ensure that Hezbollah would not operate in the area south of the Litani River. Furthermore that area would serve as a buffer zone between Israel and Lebanon, free of armed personnel, assets, and weapons with the exception of UNIFIL and Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). As of September 2024, UNIFIL comprised approximately 10,000 peacekeepers from 50 countries. Indonesia is the biggest contributor with over 1,200 personnel, followed by India, Ghana, Nepal, Italy, Spain, France and Ireland. They are tasked with patrolling the region, facilitating humanitarian aid, and supporting local governance initiatives. Despite these efforts, its effectiveness has come under substantial criticism.Every year, UNIFIL’s mandate is renewed at the end of August. At this year’s meeting, Israel’s representative to the UN noted that Hezbollah has built a vast arsenal of rockets in southern Lebanon in UNIFIL’s area of operation. 90 per cent of the missiles fired at Israel that week were launched from civilian areas in their jurisdiction.
UNIFIL’s failures and Hezbollah violations since 2006

UNIFIL has struggled to fulfil its mandate due to significant operational constraints. For example it has been denied access to key areas misclassified as “private property” and over the years its personnel have encountered frequent threats and intimidation by Hezbollah. In 2009 the UN confirmed that Hezbollah violated UN resolution by stockpiling arms and ammunition south of the Litani River, following an explosion at an arms depot in the southern Lebanese village of Khirbet Silim. In 2015 Hezbollah launched a cross-border ambush, firing an anti-tank missile at an Israeli convoy. Two IDF soldiers were killed and seven injured. Since at least 2017, Hezbollah has circumvented UNIFIL and 1701, by operating under the guise of an NGO, “Green Without Borders”, which has established over 30 outposts along the Israeli border. In August 2023, the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, designated the Lebanon-based “Green Without Borders” and its leader, Zuhair Subhi Nahla, as affiliates to a terror organisation.

In August 2018 UNIFIL personnel tried to take photographs near Majdel Zoun. Hezbollah operatives seized UNIFIL peacekeepers’ weapons and set fire to their vehicles.In December 2018, the IDF exposed Hezbollah attack tunnels dug from southern Lebanon into northern Israel. One of the tunnels entered 40 metres in Israel. At Israel’s request UNIFIL carried out an independent assessment confirming the existence of four tunnels close to the Blue Line in northern Israel. UNIFIL said the tunnels constitute violations of resolution 1701.In 2019 a UNIFIL report stated that “Hezbollah activists in civilian clothes used force to prevent UNIFIL troops free movement, with roadblocks, harassment, threats, and theft of electronic equipment.” In December 2022, an Irish UNIFIL peacekeeper was killed and several others wounded after their convoy was shot at whilst driving through the town of Al-Aqbiya in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah was blamed but denied involvement.During the summer 2023, there were several provocative incidents by Hezbollah on the border. In one case two men were filmed climbing the security barrier and stealing an IDF surveillance camera. In a separate incident several men with face masks dressed in military camouflage fatigues walked along the border with Israel.In July 2023, 20 Lebanese figures, presumably Hezbollah members crossed about 80 metres into Israeli territory and placed two tents south of the Blue Line (inside Israel) in the of the Mount Dov region. In September 2023 Israel’s Defence Minister Gallant visited New York and told the UN Secretary-General that “the potential for escalation on the northern border has risen in the wake of serious violations of sovereignty by Lebanon. Iran is pushing Hezbollah to act.” At the time Gallant presented intelligence including maps and photographs highlighting Hezbollah’s recently established lookouts and increased presence on the border and attempts to create friction with IDF forces.On October 8th 2023, a day after Hamas’s attacks on southern Israel, Hezbollah began to fire rockets, missiles and anti-tank weapons against both Israeli military and civilian targets. Prior to the IDF’s ground incursion earlier this month, Hezbollah fired over 9000 projectiles at Israel. The attacks since October 8th 2023 have so far resulted in the deaths of 30 civilians (among them 12 children) and 43 soldiers, as well as the internal displacement of over 60,000 civilians.

IDF launches Operation Northern Arrows

On October 1st 2024 the IDF launched a ground incursion targeting the Hezbollah infrastructure embedded close to the Israeli border, with the aim of allowing displaced Israeli residents of the north to safely return home. At that point UNIFIL were encouraged to leave their posts and retreat north for their own safety.In the first three weeks of the operation the IDF has uncovered and exposed the extent of Hezbollah force build-up of military infrastructure and hardware, some of which was found in close proximity to UNIFIL posts. According to IDF, Hezbollah had fired around 25 rockets and missiles in the last month close to UNIFIL sites. Since the ground operation has begun there have been two claims that Israel has violated UNIFIL’s mandate. In one incident an Israeli tank backed into the gates of a UNIFIL post. According to the IDF the incident took place as the tank, whilst under fire from Hezbollah, was evacuating injured soldiers. According to the IDF, they maintained lines of communication with UNIFIL throughout the incident, emphasising that at no point were UNIFIL personnel at risk. Speaking on October 14th Prime Minster Netanyahu addressed these allegations saying, “The charge that Israel deliberately attacked UNIFIL personnel is completely false. It’s exactly the opposite. Israel repeatedly asked UNIFIL to get out of harm’s way. It repeatedly asked them to temporarily leave the combat zone, which is right next to Israel’s border with Lebanon.”Prime Minister Netanyahu further emphasised, “Israel is not fighting UNIFIL. It’s not fighting the people of Lebanon. It is fighting Iran’s proxy Hezbollah, which uses Lebanese territory to attack Israel… Hezbollah uses UNIFIL facilities and positions as cover while it attacks Israeli cities and communities. These attacks have claimed the lives of many Israelis.”

Conclusion

Hezbollah began violating the Resolution 1701 shortly after the Second Lebanon War ended, particularly in its effort to rebuild its military infrastructure embedded within Shiite villages in southern Lebanon. Within a decade, the number of violations had increased by 800 per cent and by the end of 2017, Hezbollah had committed around 13,000 violations of the agreement. In 2007, there were 410 violations. By 2017, according to the IDF, there were 3669 of these violations. Around two thirds of those were cases of armed combatants spotted south of the Litani River. Over the same period, Israel has also come under criticism for violating resolution 1701 by conducting intelligence gathering aerial sorties over southern Lebanon. Israel has argued these overflights were necessary given Hezbollah’s force build-up and the lack of accountability by the Lebanese government and UNIFIL. Hezbollah is currently firing missiles toward Israel from areas under the jurisdiction of LAF personnel and UNIFIL forces, the very entities tasked with enforcing the ban on Hezbollah or any other armed group’s presence in southern Lebanon. In efforts to bring the fighting to a conclusion, Israel will be demanding the removal of Hezbollah presence in the south and more vigorous implementation of resolution 1701 to permanently keep Hezbollah away.

October 15, 2024

Shooting attack in southern Israel, as rockets attacks continue 

A police officer was killed and another person injured in an apparent terror shooting attack near Yavne, south of Tel Aviv.

  • According to initial assessments by emergency medical services, the shootings took place in two locations. The first, near the Yavne intersection, and the second in the Nir Galim junction. 
  • Rocket sirens continue to be heard across northern and central Israel, yesterday and this morning. 
  • As of last night, approximately 115 rockets were fired by Hezbollah into Israel. Sirens were heard across central Israel including Tel Aviv.
  • The IDF said that aerial defences intercepted several projectiles that crossed into Israeli territory, and there have not been any reports of casualties or damage.
  • Over the past day, in coordination with ground troops, the IAF struck more than 200 Hezbollah terrorist targets in southern Lebanon and deep within Lebanon, including terrorist cells, anti-tank missile posts, and surface-to-surface missile launchers.
  • In Gaza, IDF troops eliminated a terrorist cell in the Jabalya area that fired anti-tank missiles toward them. Additionally, the troops identified multiple armed terrorists that posed a threat.
  • According to COGAT data, humanitarian aid to Gaza continues with 83 trucks carrying humanitarian goods transferred to Gaza yesterday, via the Kerem Shalom Crossing.
  • Yesterday, the IDF announced that Sgt. Koren Bitan, 19, was killed in battle while fighting in the Gaza Strip. Overall, 740 soldiers have been killed since October 7th 2023.
  • On Monday the UK government announced that it has imposed new sanctions on Iranian military figures and organisations in response to Iran’s missile attack on Israel on 1st October.
  • The sanctions target senior leaders in the Iranian Army, Air Force, and IRGC Intelligence, as well as organisations like the Farzanegan Propulsion Systems Design Bureau (FPSDB) and the Iranian Space Agency, which are linked to missile development.
  • The measures include travel bans and asset freezes for individuals, and asset freezes for organisations involved in missile and military technology.

The IDF continues operational activity in southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, striking over 230 terrorist targets, as Hezbollah attacks continue.

  • The operation in southern Lebanon has now entered its third week. Alongside the standing IDF brigades, reservist brigades have also been given missions relatively deep inside Lebanon to remove the threat of an invasion of Israeli territory by the Radwan Force.
  • The IDF exposed an underground compound, 800 meters long and is fortified against air strikes, included living quarters, a fully-stocked kitchen, showers, motorbikes and other off-road vehicles, and hundreds of sophisticated weapons, including Kornet missiles and anti-aircraft missiles. The troops also found personal firearms and fresh food, which indicated that Radwan Force terrorists had been in the compound until very recently.
  • This week, IDF eliminated 11 senior Hezbollah commanders, including the head of Hezbollah’s logistics staff and a member of Hezbollah’s Jihad Council, the commander of the Radwan force’s attack area in Bint Jbeil, the artillery commander in Bint Jbeil, the commander of the Hajir sector, the outgoing commander of the Hajir sector, the commander of operations in the Hajir sector, the commander of the artillery in the Hajir sector, the commander of the Hula area, the commander of the anti-tank system in Mis al-Jabal, and the commander of Radwan’s anti-tank system in Mis al-Jabal.
  • IDF Northen Command Officials estimate that that in the ground manoeuvre in southern Lebanon 800 terrorists were killed.
  • The IDF are thought to be focusing on targeting Hezbollah’s drone units, following the drone attack on the military base on Sunday near Binyamina and the old age home in Herzliya a day earlier on Yom Kippur.  
  • The operations in northern Gaza is focused on preventing Hamas reconstituting its power base there, including their ability to attack Israelis. Efforts have been made to evacuate Gazan civilians away from the combat zone, whilst Hamas are pressuring them to remain.   
  • During the past week. the Islamic resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for 20 attacks against Israel.In five incidents, interception of aerial targets to Israel from Iraq was reported, and in another incident, a drone hit in an open area. The rest of the other incidents have no verification.
  • Since November 2023, the Islamic resistance in Iraq has begun to carry out attacks against Israel and by October 14, 2024, they have claimed responsibility for 208 attacks against Israel.
  • IDF continues its campaign to destroy Hezbollah’s arms smuggling from Syria and Lebanon. In the beginning of the month, IDF attacked underground infrastructure of Hezbollah’s Unit 4400, in northeastern Lebanon, which is responsible for transporting and smuggling Iranian weapons into Lebanon, 
  • Following precise IDF and ISA intelligence, the IAF conducted a strike during the month of September 2024 and eliminated the terrorist Samer Abu Daqqa, Head of Hamas’ Aerial Unit. Abu Daqqa replaced the previous Head of Hamas’ Aerial Unit, who was eliminated in October 2023.
  • Samer Abu Daqqa was responsible for carrying out numerous terror attacks, including launching drones towards Israeli territory and IDF troops. He was among those responsible for the paraglider and drones’ infiltrations into Israeli territory during the October 7th Massacre.

October 14, 2024

Hezbollah drone kills four IDF soldiers 60km inside Israel

Four IDF soldiers were killed last night by a Hezbollah drone that exploded in a military training base near Binyamina. 

  • The drone struck approximately 60km from the Lebanese border.
  • There was no siren, the drone directly struck the dining room, penetrating the roof and exploded during dinnertime. 
  • Fifty-eight soldiers were wounded in the attack. Seven are in serious condition, nine are in moderate condition and the others are all in light condition. 
  • According to the IDF’s preliminary inquiry, two drones were detected over the Mediterranean Sea. One was intercepted near Nahariya, but the second drone was lost for reasons that currently remain unclear.
  • In a sperate incident earlier on Sunday, 25 IDF soldiers were hospitalised after being wounded in combat in southern Lebanon. Two were described as seriously wounded, and 23 were moderately or lightly wounded.
  • During the evacuation of the injured soldiers an IDF tank backed into a United Nations Interim Force In Lebanon (UNIFL) post.
  • This was the second incident involving UNIFIL in recent days. The IDF admitted that on Friday six UNIFIL soldiers had been wounded by IDF fire, while the “troops were responding to a threat.” The IDF said that hours before the incident it had instructed UNIFIL forces to leave for safe civilian areas and to stay there.

Context: The IDF has now been operating on the ground in southern Lebanon for three weeks.

  • In that time they have uncovered the substantial military preparedness embedded within Lebanese villages close to the border including thousands of weapons and hundreds of tunnels.
  • In parallel Hezbollah have been consistently able to fire around 150 rockets, missiles and drones into northern Israel on a daily basis.       
  • According to Defence Minister Gallant, his latest assessment is that, “only a third of short and medium-range missiles remain in Hezbollah’s possession.”
  • Several of the Hezbollah military outposts have been within close proximity of UNIFIL positions. 
  • According to the IDF in the last month there has been approximately 25 rockets and missiles launched by Hezbollah from positions close to UNIFIL.    
  • This has led to Prime Minister Netanyahu to release a video appealing directly to the UN Secretary General saying, “The time has come for you to withdraw UNIFIL from Hezbollah strongholds and from the combat zones. The IDF has requested this repeatedly and has met with repeated refusal, which has the effect of providing Hezbollah terrorists with human shields. Your refusal to evacuate UNIFIL soldiers has turned them into hostages of Hezbollah. This endangers both them and the lives of our soldiers. We regret the harm to UNIFIL soldiers and we are doing our utmost to prevent such harm. But the simplest and most obvious way to ensure this is simply to withdraw them from the danger zone.”
  • In addition the IDF has been keen to emphasise that during the incident yesterday all UNIFIL personnel were safe in their shelter and were in constant communication with the IDF.    
  • The incident nevertheless drew criticism from Israel’s European allies and was also discussed on the latest call between Defence Minister Gallant and his US counterpart, Secretary of Defence Austin. According to a Department of Defence statement, Austin, “reinforced the importance of Israel taking all necessary measures to ensure the safety and security of UNIFIL forces and Lebanese Armed Forces, and the need to pivot from military operations in Lebanon to a diplomatic pathway to provide security for civilians on both sides of the border as soon as feasible.”
  • Gallant reportedly promised to continue to take all necessary measures to protect the peacekeeping force stationed in southern Lebanon, despite the operational challenge as a result of Hezbollah’s presence near UNIFIL positions.
  • The bitter irony is that UNIFIL was deployed in southern Lebanon as part of UN resolution 1701 to prevent the presence of armed Hezbollah fighters operating close to the Israeli border.
  • Israel does not yet have a holistic solution to the Iranian made drones deployed by Hezbollah. However, it is still estimated that more than half of the drones have been intercepted by a combination of IAF combat planes, or by the Iron Dome and David’s Sling systems.
  • The drones are small and hard to detect, plus they are capable of frequently changing altitude.
  • Israel’s ability to intercept rockets is far higher (over 90 per cent) but still could be overwhelmed by massive simultaneous barrages.

Looking ahead: Israel continues preparations and deliberations over the timing and nature of their response to the Iranian ballistic missile attack two week ago.

  • In an effort to help defend Israel from future Iranian attack, the Pentagon has confirmed that a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) battery will soon be deployed in Israel, controlled by US military personnel.
  • According to the Pentagon spokesperson, “The THAAD Battery will augment Israel’s integrated air defence system. This action underscores the United States’ ironclad commitment to the defence of Israel, and to defend Americans in Israel, from any further ballistic missile attacks by Iran. It is part of the broader adjustments the U.S. military has made in recent months, to support the defence of Israel and protect Americans from attacks by Iran and Iranian-aligned militias.” 
  • Israel has developed a laser based interception system that will help combat the threat of drones, but it is only expected to be operational by the summer 2025.

October 10, 2024

Two killed in Kiryat Shmona as rocket attacks intensify 

View of wildfires following a missile attack from Lebanon near Korazim, northern Israel, on October 9, 2024. Photo by Michael Giladi/Flash90

Attacks have intensified with Hezbollah firing around 220 rockets into northern Israel on Wednesday, with continued fire this morning. 

  • In Kiryat Shmona, a couple in their mid-forties Revital Yehud and Dvir Sharvit, who had refused to be evacuated from their home, were killed by shrapnel while walking their dog.
  • Six people were wounded when 40 rockets hit Haifa and the nearby suburbs.
  • A building was damaged in Safed, and fires broke out in Hatzor Haglilit and the area surrounding the town.
  • Sirens sounded yesterday in Caesarea, Zichron Yaakov and other communities near the coast.
  • Six people were wounded in a terrorist stabbing attack in Hadera.  Before being shot the assailant attacked people in four different locations across the city, wounding two in the first, a third in the second, two more in the third, and a sixth in the final location. He was later identified as Ahmad Jabarin, a 36-year-old Israeli citizen from Umm al-Fahm.
  • Two soldiers were killed, and two soldiers were wounded in the last two days. On Tuesday, Sgt. Noam Israel Abdu, was killed in a ground operation in the northern Gaza Strip. In the same operation, a soldier was severely injured. Another soldier was severely injured in southern Lebanon. This morning, Maj. (res) Ronny Gazinate, 36-years-old, was killed in combat in southern Lebanon.
  • The IDF continues its operational activity in southern Lebanon. Over the past day, IDF eliminated terrorists during close-quarter encounters and in aerial strikes, located and confiscated numerous weapons including anti-tank missiles. In addition, over 100 Hezbollah terror targets were destroyed.
  • Over the past day, the IAF struck approximately 185 Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, and in parallel approximately 45 Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip, including terrorist cells, infrastructure sites, military structures, observation posts, launchers, and weapons storage facilities. 
  • The IDF announced it had assassinated two Hezbollah operatives, Ahmad Mustafa Al-Hajj Ali and Mohammad Ali Hamdan, who intended to carry out terrorist attacks in northern communities. The pair were responsible for launching hundreds of rockets and anti-tank missile toward the Kiryat Shmona area. 
  • Last night, IDF intercepted a drone over the Red Sea, which was making its way toward Israel.
  • In an undercover operation in the West Bank city of Nablus, Israeli forces opened fire on a car in Nablus, killing four terror suspects.

Context: Despite the IDF offensive, Hezbollah is expanding its range and intensity of strikes against Israeli civilian communities . 

  • According to the IDF Hezbollah actually fired over 350 rockets on Wednesday, with approximately 220 crossing over into Israel. Israel’s anti-missiles defences were able to intercept most of them, but the Hezbollah tactic is to try and overwhelm the system.      
  • Wednesday’s attack on Kiryat Shmona was most sustained and heaviest barrage the city has faced since the war began. 
  • In parallel the IDF appear satisfied with the progress they are making targeting Hezbollah’s military infrastructure. The IDF Chief of Staff  struck a confident tone during the situational assessment yesterday saying, “Hezbollah is making efforts to conceal the significant damage we have inflicted…. They are experiencing command and control difficulties, leading to confusion at the decision-making level and challenges in their operational capabilities.”  
  • The IDF are working off an orderly battle plan targeting hundreds of Hezbollah command centres, weapons storage facilities and military observation posts. In addition, whenever Hezbollah fires rockets the air force aims to destroy the launchers. 
  • Along with the progress in southern Lebanon, the IDF again emphasised the importance of the attacking the Dahiya neighbourhood in Lebanon which they describe as, “a key terrorist stronghold for Hezbollah.” Adding, “this is where its decisions are made, and it manufactures and hides its strategic weapons – inside and below civilian buildings in Dahiya. Dahiya is not like the rest of Beirut.”
  • The latest messages from Hezbollah this week attests to their weakened condition and for first time in a year are no longer conditioning and connecting a ceasefire to the situation to Gaza. 
  • At the same time reports are emerging of new approach led by the Mossad to try and reach an agreement to release the hostages.  In a role reversal where before Hamas encouraged the Iranian proxies to join in attacking Israel and Hezbollah made any ceasefire conditional on the linkage. Now Israel is new reversing the equation and telling Iran if they want a ceasefire to save themselves and what’s left of Hezbollah they need to pressure Hamas to release the captives. 
  • The three-way call yesterday between Prime Minister Netanyahu, US President Biden and Vice President Harris was their first call since the end of August. 
  • Netanyahu’s insistence on the call as a perquisite for Gallant’s visit to the Pentagon was designed to ensure that Netanyahu remains personally engaged in the coordination with the US. 
  • It is  understood that the Biden administration has been working in recent days to moderate possible Israeli attacks and proposed a military-diplomatic “compensation package” instead. 
  • The stabbing attack in Hadera is the third major terror attack in the last eight days, follows the attacks in Tel Aviv last Tuesday and Beer Sheva on Sunday. It was second attack committed by an Israeli-Arab citizen.
  • The mayor of Umm al-Fahm condemned the attack carried out by a resident of his city saying, “The fabric of common life must be preserved.”
  • There is heightened concern that in the immediate aftermath there is added motivation for copy-cat type attacks. 

Looking ahead: IDF Chief of staff has committed to, “continue to strike Hezbollah with intensity, without allowing them any respite or recovery.”

  • The security cabinet is expected to meet this evening to discuss and approve the details of Israel’s response to Iran. 
  • Defence Minister Gallant spoke about the anticipated response saying that, “Our attack will be lethal, precise and mainly surprising. They won’t understand what happened and how it happened; they’ll see the results.”
  • Part of the Israeli dilemma will be to calibrate a strike hard enough to end the cycle of attack and counter-attack.

October 7, 2024

One year on and Iranian proxies continue to attack Israel

Pictures of Israelis held hostage in the Gaza Strip are screened on the walls of Jerusalem's Old City, as Israel will mark tomorrow one-year anniversary of the October 7 massacre, on November 6, 2023. Photo by Yonatan Sindel/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** ירושלים חומות העיר העתיקה הקרנה מלחמה חרבות ברזל חטופים תמונות ישראלים

Israel has commemorated the one-year anniversary of Hamas’s October 7th attacks, as it continues military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, while coming under rocket and missile fire from Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.

  • Sirens sound this morning in Haifa, Acre and several surrounding towns and villages after a barrage of around 100 rockets were fired from Lebanon so far this morning.
  • Hezbollah launched 190 projectiles yesterday, including at civilian population centres in Tel Aviv and Haifa. Hezbollah claimed that it targeted the Glilot army base where the IDF’s 8200 signals intelligence unit is headquartered. The IDF says that five rockets were launched in the attack, some of which were intercepted and the rest struck open areas, causing no injuries or major damage.
  • Military operations against Hezbollah are continuing, with focus on southern Lebanon, and the Dahiya suburb of Beirut. A fourth army division has been deployed to southern Lebanon with the IDF stating it is conducting “limited, localised and targeted operations” in the area.
  • The IDF announced that it killed the head of Hezbollah’s logistical headquarters, Suhail Hussein Husseini in an airstrike on Beirut. Husseini, a member of Hezbollah’s Jihad Council, participated in weapon transfers between Hezbollah and Iran and was responsible for distributing the advanced weaponry among Hezbollah’s units. Further airstrikes were also conducted on Hezbollah targets in the more northern Beqaa Valley.
  • The Iranian foreign minister warned Israel against retaliating for its attack against Israel last week adding that any attack on Iran’s infrastructure would be met with a stronger response.
  • The IDF successfully intercepted a surface to surface ballistic missile fired at central Israel from Yemen. Sirens sounded across the centre of the country, but no injuries or damage was reported.
  • The Houthis claimed responsibility for this attack, saying that two missiles were fired at Israel as well as numerous drones targeting Eilat and Jaffa.
  • One Israeli soldier has been killed in the IDF’s latest operations in the northern Gaza Strip with another soldier suffering serious injuries in the same incident. His death marks the IDF’s 350th fatality since launching the ground operation last October.
  • The IDF said that 20 Hamas operatives were killed in the past day during a new IDF operation in northern Gaza’s Jabaliya.
  • Hamas also targeted central Israel with a barrage of rocket fire while October 7th commemorations took place. While mostly intercepted, shrapnel falling caused some damage to a property in Kfar Chabad where it also lightly wounded two women.
  • After weeks of silence, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has reestablished contact with hostage-ceasefire deal mediators in Qatar while former Hamas politburo chief, Khaled Mashaal told Reuters that the group would rise “like a Phoenix”, and that it continues to recruit fighters and manufacture weapons.

Context:  Israel marked the anniversary of the October 7th attack in two separate national ceremonies last night.

  • The first was held in Hayarkon Park in Tel Aviv, crowd-funded and organised by some of the victims’ families.  It was originally expected to host 40,000 spectators, but due to the expanded range of recent rocket attacks, the capacity was reduced to fewer than 2,000.
  • The second, formal government-organised commemoration was held in an amphitheatre in Ofakim and pre-recorded several days ago. It was broadcast immediately after the first ceremony ended.
  • Both ceremonies included survivors’ testimony and musical accompaniment as well as reflecting a full range of Israeli society with messages of solidarity and unity. However the fact that two ceremonies were deemed necessary speaks largely to the continued anger and resentment felt my many over the government’s failure to take full responsibility into the disaster and its foot dragging in launching a state commission of enquiry into the disaster.
  • There is growing concern for the 101 hostages in Gaza. The latest intelligence assessment made public includes:
    • Most of the hostages are being held in tunnels, likely narrow passageways with very little food, without electricity, without showers and without bathrooms, and with almost no air.  
    • The terrorist captors holding them have become more violent toward the hostages the more the IDF intensified its attacks. One official reportedly told the families that the  terrorists’ finger on the trigger had become lighter. He said that the terrorists had been given a direct order to execute hostages if they felt in danger or if they heard soldiers approaching.
    • The assessment is that most have lost 20% of their weight and some are most likely are suffering from severe medical issues that have not been treated.
    • In such difficult conditions the hostages will not be able to survive for an extended period of time.
  • Despite the resumption of communication with Sinwar and the pressure from the families to reach a deal, the chances are not considered to be high. This is due to Sinwar’s continued intransigence and Israel’s formal demand to retain its position on the Philadelphi Corridor.
  • There had been efforts to reinvigorate a plan that would see all of the hostages released and allow Sinwar and the remaining Hamas leadership safe passage out of Gaza.
  • It remains unclear how much the US administration can invest in this process as the election draws nearer.       
  • In parallel Israel is looking to increase the humanitarian aid into Gaza. The estimated cost is $5.4 billion (£4.12bn) per year for food alone. There are also suggestions that the Israeli Government is pushing to have IDF take over the distribution of all aid to Gaza. The IDF would take responsibility for every stage of the process – purchasing the aid, transporting it, securing it and distributing it to Gaza’s residents.
  • In the UK, Prime Minister Starmer made a statement to the House of Commons yesterday paying tribute to the victims of October 7th, including 15 British citizens who were slain, and another victim who has since died in captivity. He also talked about the Palestinians death toll, and the humanitarian crisis in Lebanon.
  • The Prime Minister said he supports Israel’s right to defend herself against Iran’s aggression in line with international law.

Looking ahead: The head of IDF Northern Command has told local leaders of northern communities that they could begin to make plans for the return of their residents after the Succot holiday, at the end of the month. The prevailing assessment is that the communities in question are ones that are at a distance from the border and leaders of these communities will await government endorsement of endorse this plan.

  • Consultations between Israel and the US continue over a response to Iran for firing 181 ballistic missiles at Israel last week. There are a number of attack options: from military installations to symbols of government, energy infrastructure and the Iranian nuclear programme.
  • The Israeli government has declared that going forward an additional – ‘Iron Sword War Memorial Day’ will be marked every year on October 7th.

Newsletter sign-up

Please enter your information below to subscribe to our daily newsletter and stay updated and informed.

Donate to BICOM

At BICOM, we rely on the generosity of people like you to keep our website and services running. Your donation, no matter the size, makes a real difference. Please consider supporting us today. For further information please email: [email protected]