LATEST
Former head of Shin Bet joins Eisenkot’s party
Israel helps defend UAE
Israel condemns London terror attack
Latest Gaza bound flotilla intercepted
Hezbollah drone attacks expose limits of Lebanon ceasefire
IDF chief criticises unethical behaviour

Other

Key background

Updated October 21, 2024

Egyptian brokered ceasefire comes into effect

The Ceasefire

  • An Egyptian-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) went into effect from 10.00pm last night.
  • Rocket fire emanated from the Gaza Strip around an hour after, followed by Israeli strikes in response, but as of this morning the truce seems to be holding.
  • Text of the ceasefire reads: “The two sides will abide by… an end to targeting civilians, house demolition, an end to targeting individuals immediately…”
  • Israeli National Security Council Director Tzachi Hanegbi “thanked Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and expressed the appreciation of the State of Israel for Egypt’s intensive efforts to secure a ceasefire. The NSC Director made it clear that Israel’s acceptance of the Egyptian initiative means that ‘quiet will be met with quiet’, and that if Israel is attacked or threatened, it will continue to do everything that it needs to in order to defend itself.”
  • PIJ spokesman Dawoud Shehab, meanwhile, announced that the group “declare our acceptance of the Egyptian announcement and we will abide by it as long as the occupation (Israel) abides by it.”
  • Meanwhile, in a televised press statement, PIJ leader Ziyad al-Nakhalah thanked Iran, Hezbollah, Qatar, and Egypt for their support during the conflict.
  • Hamas, which although keen to avoid direct entanglement in the conflict has played a more collaborative role with PIJ then in previous recent campaigns, praised the “Palestinian Resistance Factions for defending the Palestinian people against the most recent Israeli aggression against the Gaza Strip.” Tellingly, it referenced explicitly the Joint Operations Room it operated alongside PIJ.
  • PIJ, for its part, praised the solidarity of all wings of the Palestinian movement, but did not name Hamas.
  • UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said: “I welcome the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and militant factions in Gaza, brokered by Egypt. The ceasefire must now be honoured to prevent the loss of further civilian life. The UK will support all efforts to promote dialogue and create a pathway towards sustainable peace.”
  • News of the ceasefire was also welcomed by both White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Tor Wennesland.
  • Hamas has announced a full return to normal in the Gaza Strip, while Israel will gradually relax restrictions imposed on the strip today. The Erez crossing reopened at 8:00 and Kerem Shalom 11:00, enabling the return to work in Israel of the 18,000 Gazans in possession of work permits. Coastal waters have also been reopened.
  • Domestically, closed Israeli roads have reopened this morning, though schools will remain shut today in Ashkelon and on the Gaza periphery.

Operation Shield and Arrow in summary

  • According to IDF figures, some 1234 rockets were launched at Israel from Gaza during the last week.
    • 976 crossed over into Israel.
    • 221 landed in Gaza.
    • 373 were intercepted by Iron Dome.
  • The rocket fire caused two civilian deaths in Israel:
    • 80-year-old Inga Avramyan was killed when the ceiling of her Rehovot apartment collapsed following a direct hit last Thursday. According to Avramyan’s grandson, she was killed trying to help her paralysed husband reach shelter.
    • A Gazan construction worker was killed yesterday when a rocket hit the border moshav of Shokeda where he was working. A fellow Palestinian construction worker and an Israeli Bedouin were also injured, the former seriously.
  • Israel struck 371 terrorist targets, including targeted assassinations of senior PIJ leaders, PIJ command posts, rocket facilities, and attack tunnels.
  • On Friday, a sixth senior PIJ leader was killed by a targeted Israeli strike. Iyad al-Hassani, PIJ’s director of operations, a veteran of the al-Quds Brigades, and a prominent figure in attacks on Israelis during the Second Intifada, died alongside his assistant in a strike on the Nasser neighbourhood of Gaza City.
  • Al-Hassani is the latest and perhaps final senior PIJ figure to be killed in Operation Arrow and Shield, joining Jahed Ahnam (Military Council Secretary), Khalil Bahitini (Senior Operational Officer in Gaza), Tarek Az Aldin (Senior Operative and Coordinator of Terrorism in Gaza and the West Bank), Ali Ghassan Ghali (PIJ Rocket Unit Commander), and Ahmad Abu Deka (PIJ Rocket Unit Deputy Commander)
  • Overall, 33 Palestinians have died during the fighting over the past week: 10 were civilians, most of whom were family members of the three senior PIJ figures killed in the operation’s opening stages.
  • IDF data suggests that a further four civilians were killed by misfiring PIJ rockets, which also caused at least 23 injuries.
  • According to Palestinian media, a child, Tamim Daud, died from a heart attack brought on by the fighting.

From the commentators

  • Yossi Yehoshua in Yediot Ahronot: “If [the ceasefire holds] … one can say that Operation Shield and Arrow was one of the most successful IDF and GSS operations to have been carried out in the Gaza Strip. Islamic Jihad was dealt a painful blow, possibly the most painful it has been dealt by Israel to date. It lost most of its top commanders in precision targeted killing operations that were carried out in the opening strike last week, and it continued to lose more top commanders amid the ongoing fighting. Islamic Jihad also found itself hard put to launch significant barrages of rocket fire on Israel that caused extensive damage… The way in which the operation ended can also be chalked up as a partial Israeli achievement. The IDF wanted to conclude this round of fighting as quickly as possible, as did the Israeli political leadership, and to capitalise on the fact that Egypt and Hamas were in favour of a ceasefire. Iran pressured Islamic Jihad into continuing the fight for as long as possible, and that pressure yielded results for five days—but not more than that. Islamic Jihad has emerged from this operation battered and bruised. Furthermore, taking a broader view of things, its patrons in Tehran also suffered a blow, one that arrived at a good time from Israel’s perspective given the Iranians recent brazenness.”
  • Yoav Limor in Israel Hayom: “Israel would have run the risk of eroding [its] achievements as the operation ran longer. The number of high-quality targets would have grown smaller, and the chances of making a mistake would have risen (as would the chances of Islamic Jihad chalking up an operational success either by means of high trajectory rocket fire or anti-tank rocket fire at a chance target). With the passage of more time, Hamas also could have found itself painted into a corner. Currently, it enjoys the fact that Islamic Jihad’s capabilities have been eroded—namely, the group that poses a domestic challenge to it has been made weaker—but the closed border crossings and the subsequent fuel shortage and ongoing suspension of Gazans’ access to their jobs in Israel would have produced public pressure on it to solve the suffocating situation. To avert that, Hamas acted behind the scenes to advance a ceasefire agreement.”
  • Amos Harel in Haaretz: “the key to a cease-fire wasn’t necessarily in Israel’s hands. It’s possible that Islamic Jihad learned from the previous round, which lasted three days in August of last year during Operation Breaking Dawn, and decided it was worthwhile to continue the clash for a bit longer. Even if it failed to cause multiple Israeli casualties, the fact that it was able to continue and hold out for a while in a confrontation with the IDF could be considered an achievement… What Islamic Jihad wasn’t able to do was to drag other organizations into the scuffle or to bring about clashes in other arenas around Israel. Hamas was comfortable, at least to a certain degree, that Islamic Jihad clashed with Israel and exacted a toll on it. Until Saturday, there weren’t any signs that the larger organisation intended to take an active part in the fighting. This could have happened, especially if many Palestinian civilians became casualties as the operation continued. There were no signs of a violent escalation in Jerusalem, the West Bank, near the borders of Lebanon and Syria or in areas near the Green Line.”

May 12, 2023

Rehovot apartment hit

What Happened: A night of quiet followed a further day of mass rocket barrages on Israel from Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in the Gaza Strip.

  • The day’s rocket fire ended at around 10.00pm last night, a last barrage fired at the Western Negev following some directed at the greater Tel Aviv area an hour or so earlier.
  • Following Wednesday’s direct hits on homes in Sderot and Ashkelon, yesterday’s most damaging impact came in the central Israeli town of Rehovot, where an elderly civilian was killed, and 12 others suffered injury or shock when a rocket hit an apartment complex.
  • Yesterday’s events bring the total this week, as of this morning, to 866 rockets fired from Gaza towards Israel.
  • Of these, 672 crossed into Israeli territory, with 194 falling either in Gaza or the Mediterranean Sea.
  • The Iron Dome defence system has intercepted 260 rockets whose trajectory showed a likely hit on populated areas, for a success rate of 91%. Its failure to intercept the crudely manufactured rocket which hit Rehovot has been blamed on a technical malfunction.

Israel continues targeting of PIJ figures

  • Late Thursday and early Friday, Israel continued its targeted attacks on PIJ facilities and senior figures in Gaza in Operation Shield and Arrow.
  • Following the killing of commander of PIJ rocket units Ali Ghassan Ghali in an apartment in Khan Yunis in the early hours of Thursday morning, his deputy, Ahmad Abu Deka, was killed in an airstrike in the southern Gaza town of Bani Suheila, near Khan Younis, yesterday afternoon.
  • In a statement, the IDF stressed Abu Deka’s direct responsibility for recent rocket fire, particularly that targeted at Sderot, and also recalled his crucial involvement in civilian-targeting campaigns during Operation Guardian of the Walls and Operation Breaking Dawn.
  • IDF spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagarai confirmed that Abu Deka’s location had been known for two days before he was targeted, as the military waited for him to be separated from his family.
  • Also on Thursday, the IDF struck a PIJ attack tunnel dug up to Israel’s security barrier with the Gaza Strip. The tunnel was, until August 2022, operated by senior PIJ figure Khaled Mansour, killed during Operation Breaking Dawn.
  • Also on Thursday, the IDF struck PIJ rocket launchers, and a mortar launcher in Rafah, shortly after their use for the launching of attacks on Israel.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu and Israel’s security chiefs held a security briefing Thursday night at the IDF’s Kirya military headquarters in Tel Aviv. Israeli media cited a message from the Prime Minister’s office that that Israel would “continue to exact a heavy price from Islamic Jihad for its aggression against Israel’s citizens.” 

Context: the death of the Israeli civilian in Rehovot is the first during Operation Shield and Arrow.

  • Israel has struck 170 terrorist targets, killing 16 terrorists in the process.
  • The IDF is following a similar strategic policy seen in last August’s Operation Breaking Dawn: striking at meticulously verified PIJ targets in Gaza whilst seeking to avoid an escalation with Hamas.
  • Similarities are also evident with November 2019’s Operation Black Belt and May 2021’s Operation Guardian of the Walls, with Yediot Ahronot commentator Yossi Yehoshua this morning noting that the success of these previous operations can be seen in PIJ’s decreased steep-trajectory rocket capability this time.
  • While Hamas is known to have provided cooperation and approval for the PIJ rocket campaign greater than that seen during Operation Breaking Dawn, Israel has continued a policy of distinction between the two terror groups.
  • Hamas personnel and facilities have not been targeted, and the Gazan terrorist organisation is unlikely to seek to provoke a protracted escalation of hostilities with Israel at this time. As the Strip’s governing authority, it fears the economic impact of the isolation a longer conflict would impose on the enclave, while 18,000 Gazans rely on working in Israel, a right suspended during conflict.
  • Israel has also sought to contain hostilities to the Gaza Strip, and not to allow spill over to the West Bank. In parallel with the Gazan front, therefore, Israel has in recent days arrested some 25 PIJ terrorist operatives in the West Bank. Among them are several associates of Tarek Az Aldin, PIJ’s terror coordinator for the West Bank, who was killed in a strike on Tuesday.
  • There are concerns over Iron Dome’s ability to cope with so sustained a demand. Despite its impressive interception rate, the failure to intercept the rocket in Rehovot follows a similar technical malfunction last week which saw rockets hit in Sderot, wounding three foreign nationals.

Who is PIJ: Established in the Gaza Strip in the 1980s PIJ’s aim is the annihilation of the State of Israel by force and the imposition of Islamic law.

  • As their aims conform to Iranian goals, they receive most of their funding from Tehran.
  • When Hamas took over the Gaza Strip in 2007, PIJ enjoyed almost complete freedom of action, and managed to grow in size to some 20,000 operatives.
  • In addition to their Gazan operations, they have cells and infrastructure in the West Bank, particularly in the Jenin area, as seen with the arrests of the 25 operatives.
  • Iran supplies the organisation with both financial support and weapons and training.
  • Following the US killing of IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani, then leader of PIJ Ramadan Shalah visited Iran to pledge allegiance.
  • Among its senior operatives killed in strikes this week have been:
    • Jahed Ahnam – Military Council Secretary
    • Khalil Bahitini – Senior Operational Officer of the Islamic Jihad in Gaza
    • Tarek Az Aldin – Senior Operative and Coordinator of Terrorism in Gaza and the West Bank
    • Ali Ghassan Ghali – PIJ Rocket Unit Commander
    • Ahmad Abu Deka – PIJ Rocket Unit Deputy Commander

Prospects for a ceasefire: a night of quiet has increased optimism for the chances of an Egyptian-brokered ceasefire.

  • Israeli reports overnight indicated that negotiations had been resumed and Egyptian mediators were said to be optimistic about the chances of achieving a truce.
  • While some reports have suggested that PIJ is eager for a ceasefire, its previous modus operandi is to have inflicted greater civilian suffering before agreeing to a truce.
  • Israel, meanwhile, is likely to want to have sufficiently degraded PIJ capabilities before agreeing to a ceasefire.

May 11, 2023

Operation Shield and Arrow enters day three

  • After waiting 35 hours to respond to the targeting of three senior Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) commanders, PIJ have fired over 500 rockets towards southern Israel in the last 24 hours.
  • As of this morning of the 500+ rockets, 368 crossed into Israel, of those 150 were intercepted by the Iron Dome anti-missile defence system while more than 100 fell short and landed inside the Gaza Strip.
  • With the Iron Dome achieving 96 per cent success rate, no Israelis have been killed or seriously wounded. There were several direct hits on property in Sderot, Ashkelon and Netivot
  • So far Hamas has approved and aided PIJ (including the operation of a join war room) but have not taken an active role in firing rockets, therefore the IDF has stuck to targeting PIJ assets.
  • The IDF responded by attacking 158 PIJ targets inside the Gaza Strip including launch sites and launchers, rocket manufacturing facilities and other military targets
  • In the early hours the Israeli Air Force targeted a fourth senior PIJ commander Ali Ghassan Ghali. He was the commander of their rocket units and was killed while hiding in an apartment in Khan Yunis. Two other PIJ operatives were killed alongside him.
  • In an operational first, a missile directed at Tel Aviv was successfully intercepted by the David’s Sling system.  This system is the second rung of Israel’s multiple layered defence between the Iron Dome and the Arrow system.
  • According to Palestinian sources 25 Gazans have been killed, of those four were senior PIJ commanders, and at least a further 6 PIJ combatants. Four others were armed combatants affiliated with the PFLP and involved in firing rockets.  There were 10 non-combatants killed in the initial surprise strike (see below). Another Gazan died from what appeared to be a PIJ rocket failing to cross the border.

Talk of ceasefire:

  • The indirect talks are once again being led by Egypt.
  • Yesterday there was already speculation that PIJ was ready for a ceasefire.
  • However others cautioned that they would not stop without inflicting more serious damage.
  • Reports suggest that Israel would not commit to terms restricting them from carrying out more targeted assassinations in the future.
  • IDF Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Daniel Hagari said that the IDF would not address a ceasefire until it went into effect. He said that the Home Front Command’s guidelines for communities in 40kn range would remain in effect at least until tomorrow.
  • Egyptian officials conveyed messages to Israel that PIJ did not want to escalate the fighting and that the current round of violence could be ended within a matter of hours.

Leaders’ comments:

  • Prime Minister Netanyahu said last night in a public statement that the development of advanced intelligence and operational capabilities has made it possible for Israel to attack the leaders of the terror organisations at any given moment.
  • Netanyahu said: “Our message to the terrorist leaders is clear: a new equation has been created. We see you wherever you are, and you can’t hide. We will choose where and when to attack you.”
  • The UK’s Minister for the Middle East, Lord Tariq Ahmad said: “All countries, including Israel have a legitimate right to self-defence”, adding: ”where there is evidence of excessive force we advocate for swift and transparent investigations”, before stressing that along with foreign secretary James Cleverly, “want to see a de-escalation and a willingness for dialogue from all sides.”

Key indicators to look out for:

  • If Hamas decide to join fray, this could extend the fighting.
  • Without inflicting harm (fatalities) PIJ do not want to stop.
  • Israel hopes to keep the focus on the Gaza Strip, whist PIJ (and Hamas) may try to extend the remit to the West Bank and Jerusalem, possibly even among Israeli Arabs and rocket fire from Lebanon.

From the Commentators:

In Yediot Ahronot, Avi Issacharoff comments that “it hardly came as a surprise that Hamas decided not to join the fighting against Israel and left Islamic Jihad to wallow on its own in its blood and rockets in yet another limited battle against the Zionist enemy…. It is almost a win-win situation: Islamic Jihad fired hundreds of rockets yesterday at Israel with Hamas’s permission and encouragement via what is dubbed their “joint operations room.” Hamas was thus able to partially pay lip service and to prevent it from being cast as a collaborator or a traitor, which is what would have happened had it clashed directly with Islamic Jihad and stopped it from firing at Israel. At the same time, the IDF, Shin Bet and the entire State of Israel focused in the last few days on one enemy only, an enemy that is Hamas’s political rival—Islamic Jihad. In other words, Israel is weakening an organization that challenges the ruling organization in the Gaza Strip and is in competition with it. Israel on the one side and Islamic Jihad on the other fought one another while Hamas remained unscathed and out of the fray, even though it had permitted—and not by merely looking the other way—rocket fire at Israel. Nevertheless, Hamas will pay a certain price for its decision to abstain from fighting. Hamas’s image as a “resistance” movement has been somewhat eroded. The majority of the Palestinian public recognizes that Hamas would prefer quiet in Gaza over another round of fighting that would produce nothing….The strike on Islamic Jihad’s leaders, without the operation devolving into full-scale war, will be viewed by the majority of the Israeli public as an Israeli victory, and rightfully so. The only side that will emerge defeated and humiliated, if the fighting ends now, will be Islamic Jihad.”

In Haaretz, Amos Harel writes, “the lack of any real casualties has provided Israel with an opportunity to end this round of fighting on a high note. Because the Palestinians haven’t succeeded in inflicting any real damage so far, they probably won’t agree to a speedy ceasefire…The Palestinian organizations adopted their own version of “We’ll respond when and where we see fit,” the famous promise of Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir after Iraqi Scud missiles landed in central Israel during the First Gulf War in 1991. By mistake, the Palestinians discovered a kind of: How to make the Israelis anxious without pulling the trigger…. Clearly, if Palestinian casualties continue to rise and Israel’s bombing campaign is prolonged, Hamas could be pushed to participate in the rocket onslaught itself. The bottom line is that Israel’s strategy has remained more or less the same since the end of Operation Guardian of the Walls, which began exactly two years ago. Despite the many changes in government, it has remained almost unchanged: Israel prefers to clash with Islamic Jihad rather than to confront Hamas directly. To ensure that the larger and more dangerous organization remains relatively quiet, Israel is willing to ignore the times when it contributes to the fighting in a limited way, enables the entry of Qatari money to the Gaza Strip (about $30 million a month), and permits 17,000 laborers from Gaza to enter Israel, bringing in almost another $40 million into the Strip).”

In Israel Hayom, Yoav Limor comments that “a quick review of Operation Shield and Arrow yields three immediate conclusions. The first is that Islamic Jihad was dealt a serious blow once again with the assassination of its top officials and the damage to its operational and arms production capabilities. The second is that Islamic Jihad failed to exact a price from Israel either in the Gaza periphery or by means of rocket fire deep into Israeli territory. The third is that Hamas stayed out of the fighting and effectively prevented it from expanding further, leaving Islamic Jihad to cope on its own with the repercussions of the bonfire that it lit, and allowed for the current round of fighting to be concluded relatively quickly. That organization [PIJ] tried to create linkage between Judea and Samaria and Gaza, translating every death in the West Bank into immediate revenge rocket fire from the Gaza Strip. Israel has made it clear to Islamic Jihad the price that it will pay for trying to do that…By the bye, Israel exhausted its bank of Islamic Jihad targets in terms of senior operatives who can be marked for assassination and other objectives (ranging from arms production sites to launching pits), while executing precise attacks and refraining from killing either Hamas operatives or civilians (except in the opening strike), so as not to draw the largest organization in the Gaza Strip into a fight that was liable then to escalate… Hamas does not want to join the war at present or, more accurately, it does not want Islamic Jihad to draw it into fighting a war. Hamas will fight (if at all) for its own reasons, and at a timing that works for it.”

Recap:  

  • Israel felt it had unfinished business, most recently on May 2nd when over 100 rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip toward Israel.
  • On May 9 At 02:00, three simultaneous strikes; two in Gaza City, the third in the Rafah on the Egyptian border.
  • Two bombs hit the fifth and sixth floors of a six-story building in the Ramal neighbourhood of Gaza City. On the sixth floor, Dr. Jamal Khaswan, 52, his wife Mirfat, 44, and their son Yusef, 18, were killed. On the fifth floor, senior Islamic Jihad leader Tarek Izz a-Din, 51, and his two children, Ali, 5, and Mayar, 7, were killed.
  • At the same time, Israeli warplanes dropped two bombs on a two-story building in the a-Shaaf neighbourhood in Gaza City (the home of the al-Bahatini family), resulting in the deaths of Khalil al-Bahtini, a senior member of the Islamic Jihad, 44, his wife Lila al-Bahatini, 42, and their daughter Hajar, 4. Also killed in this attack were 19-year-old Dania Ades and her 17-year-old sister Iman, who lived the adjacent apartment.
  • At the same time, the house of the al-Ghanam family in the Janina neighborhood of Rafah was attacked with three GBU39 type bombs, which caused the death of the senior Islamic Jihad leader Jihad al-Ghanam, 62, and his wife Wafa al-Ghanam, also 62 years old. In this attack, six others were injured, including al-Ghanam’s son.

The three commanders killed:

Khalil Bahitini – Senior Operational Officer of the Islamic Jihad in Gaza

  • Responsible for the rocket fire towards Israel from Gaza last month.
  • Responsible for approving and carrying out terrorist actions from Northern Gaza into Israel.
  • Member of the PIJ’s military council in Gaza and in direct contact with the PIJ’s political bureau.

Tarek Az Aldin – Senior Operative and Coordinator of Terrorism in Gaza and the West Bank

  • In charge of the coordination between Islamic Jihad in Gaza and Islamic Jihad in the West Bank.
  • Arranged money transfers for planning and carrying out terrorist acts and coordinated terrorist acts on Israeli civilians.
  • Was planning and coordinating multiple future attacks on Israeli civilians.

Jahed Ahnam – Military Council Secretary

  • One of the most senior members of the PIJ.
  • Previously served as Commanding Officer of Islamic Jihad’s Southern Gaza division and Head of the Military Council.
  • Coordinated weapons and money transfers between the PIJ and Hamas .
  • Worked largely in promoting destructive terrorism in Gaza, the West Bank and around the world.

May 10, 2023

Israel braced for retaliatory attacks

Instructions remain in place for Israeli communities within 40km of the Gaza Strip border to stay in close proximity to bomb shelters following the assassination of three senior commanders of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).

  • Following the Israeli strikes, yesterday Prime Minister Netanyahu held a press conference alongside Defence Minister Gallant, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi and Director of the Shin Bet Security Service Ronen Bar.  Prime Minister Netanyahu said that he and Defence Minister Gallant have instructed security forces to prepare for all escalation scenarios, including the possibility of more than one front.
  • Ronen Bar revealed that one of the targets assassinated yesterday, Tarek Az Aldin, had been working on creating a rocket-launching apparatus in the West Bank city of Jenin and had taught a cell how to build and fire rockets.
  • Following the earlier strikes, yesterday afternoon an IDF aircraft targeted a PIJ squad travelling by car, killing two operatives whist transporting anti-tank guided missiles to a launch pad in the southern Gaza Strip.
  • Last night IDF soldiers killed two armed gunmen near Jenin, after troops came under fire from a passing car.

Operation Shield and Arrow: The operation launched early Tuesday morning caught the PIJ completely by surprise.

  • It included 40 aircraft, that struck the three senior PIJ targets in their homes simultaneously.
    • Khalil Bahatini – PIJ Commander of the Northern Gaza Strip.
    • Jihad Ahnam – Secretary of the PIJ Military Council (released in the Shalit deal).
    • Tariq Az Aldin – Senior member of PIJ military leadership, responsible for military activities in the West Bank.
  • Images of the strikes show the targeting of their apartments without causing extensive damage to the rest of the building.
  • However, alongside the three senior commanders, 10 non-combatant Palestinians were killed, including four women and four children. Twenty others were injured.
  • In addition to the three assassinations, several other PIJ military sites were also targeted.

Context: The decision to target the three senior PIJ commanders was made last week after over 100 rockets were fired towards southern Israel.

  • One of the key indicators for this round of fighting will be whether Hamas also takes part in the fighting, and to what extent. Last August when Israeli launched Operation Breaking Dawn, which also targeted senior PIJ commanders, Hamas did not get involved.
  • There is pressure from Iran (the main backer of PIJ) on Hamas to be part of the response.
  • Khaled Mashal, the leader of Hamas outside the Gaza Strip threatened yesterday, “The blood-stained, vile assassination of three of the best of our nation in Gaza is a treacherous crime. There will be a strong response from the unified resistance forces.”
  • As ever Egypt plays a critical role in the indirect mediation between the sides. Israel has reportedly sent a message via Egyptian mediators warning Hamas not to respond, saying that if Hamas were to join the fighting, its senior leadership would also be considered targets for assassination.
  • If Hamas does choose to engage, this could lead to expansion of the operation, possibly beyond the Gaza Strip.
  • One of the primary motivations of launching the operation was to restore deterrence. In particular following the rocket fire over Passover from not only the Gaza Strip but also from Lebanon and Syria.
  • There were insinuations that the strike had a political dimension, due to pressure from Minister Ben Gvir. However, this has been stringently rejected, Yediot Ahronot quotes a source close to the prime minster clarifying, “The State of Israel’s security actions are not linked in any way to the steps taken by one party or another in the coalition and are taken only on the basis of security and state considerations.”
  • Notably, Ben Gvir was not part of the security consultations, partly over fears of leaks, despite his role as Minister for National Security.
  • Chief of Staff Halevi related to the deaths of the non-combatants, that Israel goes to lengths to avoid. However, he noted that the terrorists systematically operate from within the civilian population and, by so doing, placed their lives in jeopardy.

Looking ahead: Israel’s security establishment is on its highest level of alert ahead of possible retaliatory attacks.

  • PIJ has warned that they would respond at a time, place and manner that would surprise Israel.

May 5, 2023

Israel strikes Dee killers in Nablus

What happened: Around 200 Israeli troops took part in a counter-terror raid yesterday morning, targeting the terrorists who killed three members of the Dee family.

  • The raid deep into the casbah of Nablus was partially captured in Palestinian CCTV and appeared to show the lead IDF soldiers in disguise, including some dressed as women, others as labourers.
  • Troops surrounded the building and following a short gun fight, the IDF announced that they killed the two Hamas terrorist operatives Hassan Ktnani and Maed Mitsri along with third Hamas operative Ibrahim Hura, who had helped them hide.
  • The IDF also found two M-16 rifles and an AK-47 in the apartment used in the attack against the Dee family three weeks ago.

Responses: Following the operation, Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “This morning we settled the score with the murderers of Lucy, Maia, and Rina Dee. Our message to those who harm us, and to those who try to harm us, is that it may take a day, a week, or a month – be assured that we will come for you. It doesn’t matter where you try to hide, we will find you. Whoever harms us – their blood is on their own heads.”

  • Rabbi Leo Dee told Ynet, “The world will be able to sleep better when these terrorists are no longer alive. I am very happy to hear that no soldier or civilian was hurt or affected in the event. It is a mission that only the IDF and the Shin Bet can do.”
  • Curiously, the Governor of Nablus Ibrahim Ramadan released a statement saying, “The killing of the young men in Nablus this morning is a natural result of their non-compliance with the Palestinian security services and their refusal to surrender their weapons.”
  • Chairman of Palestinian Authority (PA) Mahmud Abbas said, “We strongly condemn the aggression against Nablus and call on the American administration to act to stop it.”
  • Hamas claimed all three men were members of their military wing and said the attack in the Jordan Valley was in response to the Israeli aggression against worshipers in al-Aqsa during the month of Ramadan.

Context: Intelligence sources have revealed that the security establishment knew the identity of the terrorists hours after the attack and assumed that they were hiding in the casbah in Nablus.

  • They waited until they had the precise location of their hideout.
  • The entire raid was completed in an hour, no other Palestinians were killed and no IDF forces were injured, though an IDF dog was killed whilst protecting a soldier.
  • The raid is another intelligence coup for Israel, as well as a complex operation in the heart of a Palestinian city in broad daylight.
  • The raid comes days after the latest flare-up when over a hundred rockets were fired from Gaza on Tuesday.
  • The IDF responded with airstrikes against sixteen military targets, with one Palestinian reportedly killed.
  • The relatively subdued response caused anger among some right wing members of the government. This anger was compounded when it was revealed that the prime minister did not invite Public Security Minister Ben Gvir to the security consultation. This is turn led Ben Gvir and his five members of Knesset to boycott parliamentary votes on Wednesday, with threats to resigns, and counter threats from the Likud telling him to quit.
  • The cell, with its affiliation to Hamas, attests to a rise in Hamas involvement in West Bank terror. In addition one of the men killed yesterday was a close family relation of Husam Badran, a senior Hamas official released as part of the Gilad Shalit prisoner exchange, who now lives in Qatar.
  • The third man killed was also a member of the Lion’s Den group, further proof of their coordination with Hamas.
  • Overall there is growing concern over the terror infrastructure in the West Bank, particularly the phenomena of small cells armed with automatic weapons who are planning further attacks. There is increased speculation whether it will be necessary to conduct a wider scale military operation. Currently there are four possible scenarios:
    • A large scale operation across the West Bank: the logic being it is better to strike before there is a major terror attack and take the initiative.
    • Others have suggested a more gradual approach: instead of one large operation, a series of localised ones.
    • A third option is to continue the current practice of targeted operations that focus on specific intelligence against wanted suspects or ‘ticking bombs’ where an attack is imminent.
    • A fourth option is to empower PA security forces to operate against these threats.
    • A fifth option could be a combination of the last three options.
  • Meanwhile, in Damascus yesterday, as part of his historic visit, Iranian President Raisi met with Palestinian leaders including the head of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Ziyad al-Nakhalah as the latest indicator of closer Iranian ties to Palestinian terror groups.

Looking ahead: Large deployments of IDF troops remain in place across the West Bank, with Hamas threatening to launch revenge attacks for yesterday’s killing.

  • In the next couple of weeks, the Palestinians will mark the Nakba Day (catastrophe) on May 15, the English anniversary of Israel’s independence. Later that week, Israel marks Jerusalem Day, the anniversary of reunifying the city. Both dates have in the past seen a spike in hostilities.

April 24, 2023

Jordanian parliamentarian caught smuggling weapons

  • Jordanian politician Imad Al-Adwan was arrested after he was caught smuggling almost 200 handguns and rifles at the Allenby Crossing on the Jordan River, from Jordan into the West Bank.
  • He initially raised suspicions after he arrived by car at the border crossing on Saturday night with three large heavy suitcases.
  • When taken for questioning he claimed that he was transferring gold, and that his parliamentary immunity would suffice.
  • Following inspection of the bags, he was found to be smuggling 160 handguns and 17 M16 rifles, individually wrapped in cellophane.
  • There are contradictory reports over whether he was also transferring any gold.
  • He was taken for questioning by the Shin Bet Security Service where they will try and ascertain who gave him the guns and who was meant to be the recipient.

Context: There has been a significant increase of smuggling weapons from Jordan into the West Bank over the last year.

  • However this appears to be the first instance of a Jordanian official involved.  Though there is speculation that this was not the first time Al-Adwan had smuggled in weapons.
  • Al-Adwan is a member of the Jordanian parliament’s Palestine committee. He is known as a strong supporter of the Palestinians and Hamas. He is 35 years old, from one of the Jordanian tribes in the south (not a Palestinian).
  • The recent heavy proliferation of automatic weapons among Palestinian militias has increased the intensity of gun fights between Palestinians and the IDF (during IDF counter-terror operations).  This has resulted in the deaths of dozens of young Palestinian combatants over the last year.
  • This incident follows Ramadan that saw increased tension, particularly over the Jordan’s traditional custodial role over Muslim prayer on the Temple Mount.
  • Israel and Jordan have been formally at peace since 1994, in that time there have been several security related incidents that have caused embarrassment and a rise in tension. This includes Israeli Mossad attempts to poison Hamas leader Khaled Mashal in 1997. In 2017 an Israeli Embassy security guard accidentally killed his Jordanian landlord with a stray bullet, following an alteration after he was stabbed by a young Palestinian. In this latest incident it’s the Jordanian side that may need to come up with some compensation.
  • However, overall Israel and Jordanian security forces work in close cooperation on a range of shared security issues, including the threat from ISIS and other extremist groups and the integrity of their shared border.
  • In the lead up to Ramadan Jordan hosted a summit in Aqaba, including senior Israeli, Palestinian, Jordanian, Egyptian and US officials, among a range of issues was improving security coordination.

Looking ahead: Jordanian diplomats are engaging with Israeli officials to try and secure his release.

  • Israeli estimates believe he will be released after he has been questioned, with speculation over the terms and conditions that the Jordanians will pay in return.
  • As in previous years, a general closure will be imposed upon the West Bank and the Gaza Strip from today until the end of Independence Day on Wednesday night.
  • There remains a heightened state of alert with concerns over further attempted terror attacks.

April 21, 2023

Israel deepens ties with two of Iran’s neighbours

Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen visited both Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan this week, in a move to deepen Israel’s growing ties with the Caucasus and Central Asian regions.

  • Cohen went first to Azerbaijan, where he was accompanied by 20 representatives of the Israeli cyber, defence, homeland security, water management, and agriculture sectors. The delegation met with representatives of both the private and governmental Azeri sectors.
  • Discussions were also held on connecting Israel’s natural gas deposits to Azerbaijan’s pipeline, increasing the potential for delivery of Israeli gas to Europe.
  • Azeri officials told Cohen of the country’s desire to expand Israeli imports to include the cyber and solar energy fields. Agreements were also reached which will see the two countries cooperate on space exploration.
  • After their meeting, Cohen thanked President Ilham Aliyev for the opening of the Azeri embassy in Tel Aviv last month and confirmed that they had discussed “our shared strategic regional challenges, especially regional security and the fight against terrorism.”
  • Cohen then proceeded to Turkmenistan, becoming the first Israeli Foreign Minister to visit the Central Asian state in 29 years.
  • Yesterday Cohen formally opened Israel’s first permanent embassy in the capital of Ashgabat, also meeting with President Serdar Berdimuhamedow.
  • According to the Foreign Ministry, they also discussed expanding cooperation in cyber-tech, agriculture, and water technology.
  • “Turkmenistan is an extremely important country in Central Asia and an energy powerhouse in a strategic location,” said Cohen. “The opening of our permanent embassy today strengthens the relationship between the two countries.”

Context: Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are of high strategic importance, both for their location and energy resources.

  • Israeli-Azeri ties have been deepening for some years, Cohen’s visit following the trip made by then Defence Minister Benny Gantz last October.
  • Azerbaijan has become more publicly open about its ties with Israel in recent years, breaking a tradition of opacity based on a reluctance to antagonise its Iranian neighbour.
  • In opening its Tel Aviv embassy, and recently appointing its first permanent ambassador, it became the first majority Shiite Muslim state to do so.
  • Commercial ties between the two countries are mutually significant. Israel imports 30% of its oil from Azerbaijan, while Israel provided 69% of Baku’s major arms imports from 2016-2020: 17% of Israel’s arms exports over the period.
  • Israel also provided valuable support to the Azeris during the 2020 Second Nagorno-Karabakh War with Armenia, after which Azeri-Iranian tensions increased, with Tehran carrying out provocative military exercises on the Azeri border.
  • Multiple reports have suggested that the Azeris grant Israel use of its territory for the launching of reconnaissance missions into Iran, and that any future Israeli strike on the Iranian nuclear programme could benefit from a similar Azeri base.
  • Israel has operated a temporary embassy facility in Turkmenistan for the past ten years.
  • “This is a visit to the lion’s maw, a country that is between Russia and Iran, and everything that that implies,” said one member of Cohen’s diplomatic party.
  • Moscow’s influence in Central Asia, which continued to be considerable even following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, has shown signs of decreasing in the last year to eighteen months.
  • None of the Republics have backed its invasion of Ukraine and all have complied with sanctions on the Putin government.
  • Turkey, with whom Israel has a complex relationship, is another key regional player, enjoying close linguistic-cultural and political ties with the Central Asian states, coordinating relations through the five-member Organization of Turkic States.
  • With Europe eager to divest from Russian energy, Turkey is also seen as a key gateway to supplying the continent with both oil and natural gas from alternative sources, including both Israel and Central Asian and Caucus states like Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Any advances to access to the gas pipeline must go through Turkey.
  • Israel’s desire to supply Europe has been hampered by technical and diplomatic hurdles since the discovery of Israeli gas fields in the Mediterranean
  • Israel and Turkmenistan established diplomatic relations 30 years ago, and the new embassy is now Israel’s third in Central Asia, joining those in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
  • The opening of a permanent embassy in Ashgabat is of symbolic importance. Located a mere 15 kilometres from the Iranian border, the new embassy becomes Israel’s closest diplomatic mission to the Islamic Republic.
  • Notably, ambassadors from other states united by concern over Iran, such as the United Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan and the US, were present at the embassy opening.
  • Although ties remain stronger with Tehran than they do in Azerbaijan, the last few years have seen Turkmenistan pivot more towards Iran’s rivals in the Gulf States, with several of whom Israel enjoys increasingly close relations.
  • Turkmenistan is a virtually closed state, regarded by human rights observers as a repressive dictatorship and notable for widescale abuses and corruption.
  • Like the other Central Asian states, it continues to face the effects of Islamist terror, with a number of its citizens joining both al-Qaeda and Islamic State in recent years.
  • The return of the Taliban to neighbouring Afghanistan has only heightened concerns about the Jihadi influence, and in December 2022 Israel hosted a delegation from the Central Asian states to share knowledge on border and cyber security.

Looking ahead: In a sign of the high value placed on the Azeri relationship, Israeli President Isaac Herzog is likely to visit Azerbaijan by the end of May, with the Azeri Foreign Minister also likely to make a return visit to Israel soon.

  • Berdimuhamedov indicated that he was considering following Azerbaijan in ordering the opening of a Turkmenistan embassy in Israel soon.

April 14, 2023

British-Israeli mother succumbs to wounds from terror attack

  •  British mother Lucy Dee died of her wounds yesterday, three days after the deadly shooting attack that claimed the lives of her two daughters, Maia and Rina.
  • Her death is widely mourned across Israel, UK and the Jewish world. Both President Herzog and Prime Minister Netanyahu have issued condolences.
  • Her Husband, a former Rabbi in the UK, gave an impassioned plea to differentiate between good and evil.
  • Last night Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed the nation. He began by again offering condolences to the Dee family.
  • Relating to the recent wave of attacks, Netanyahu blamed the previous government for the loss of deterrence.
  • He warned that if there are further attacks from Syria, President Assad will pay “a very heavy price,” adding that Israel will not allow Hamas to entrench itself in Lebanon.
  • Netanyahu also confirmed Defence Minister Gallant will remain in post, having put their past differences behind them.
  • In a rare move, he also answered questions from journalists. On the issue of judicial reforms, Netanyahu said that he was looking for a broad agreement, whist promising to protect minorities and women, LGBTQ people and the ultra-Orthodox.
  • Asked about the formation of a National Guard, Netanyahu said it “will not be anyone’s militia” and would fall under the command of one of the security forces.
  • Also yesterday – around 20,000 right wing Israelis including seven government ministers and 17 coalition MKs marched to the West Bank settler outpost of Evyatar in protest of recent terror attacks. Among the marchers were National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Betzalel Smotrich.

Tension remains high, but relative calm has been maintained over the last 48 hours, despite the previous few days marked by rocket fire from Syria, Lebanon, Gaza Strip and two deadly terror attacks.

  • The right wing march was criticised by some on the right for diverting IDF troops to defend the marchers instead of participating in the manhunt for the terrorists that killed three members of the Dee family.
  • There was also criticism that Israel’s response to the recent attacks has been too feeble. Likud MK Danny Danon told Army Radio, “The containment approach isn’t working and has brought on further attacks. We have to pivot from containing to defeating. The current situation can’t go on. The effort to postpone the inevitable has only brought us to a multiple-theatre incident. We have all the capabilities and strength to pummel our enemies. Our region only understands force and the time has come for us to use it.”
  • However members of the security cabinet have maintained that Israel’s retaliatory strikes were proportionate and commensurate, given the circumstances.
  • The police released new intelligence that explained their decision to enter into the al Aqsa mosque last week. According to Police Commissioner Insp. Gen. Yaakov Shabtai, as well as rocks and fireworks, explosive devices were also smuggled into the Temple Mount last week with the intention of using them against the police.
  • Netanyahu’s comments blaming the outgoing government for the increased terror is the latest spat between government and opposition. On Sunday night, Netanyahu met with Leader of the Opposition Lapid and gave him a security update. Afterwards, Lapid said, “The opposition will support any action recommended by the security branches. I arrived at the briefing with Netanyahu worried, and I left even more worried.”
  • In response, the Likud accused Lapid of playing “petty politics instead of projecting a message of firm unity to our enemies.”
  • Latest opinion polling on Channel 13 News shows a massive surge for Benny Gantz’s, National Unity Party up to 29 seats (from 12) with Yesh Atid down slightly to 21. Whilst Likud slumps to 20 (currently with 32).  The Religious Zionist Party and Jewish Power are also sightly down 11 (now 14), with Shas polling 9; United Torah Judaism: 6; Hadash-Ta’al: 6; United Arab List: 5; Yisrael Beiteinu: 5; Labour Party: 4; Balad: 4.  This would give the current coalition parties: 46 seats (down from 64) and the former coalition parties: 64 seats with Hadash-Ta’al and Balad on 10 combined.
  • The same poll also shows both Lapid and Gantz receiving more support for being better suited to serve as prime minister, rather than Netanyahu.

The manhunt to apprehend the terrorists who murdered the three Dee family members is still ongoing after the terrorists’ vehicle was found by Palestinian Authority security forces in Nablus.

  • The organs of the late Lucy Dee were transplanted and have saved the lives of 5 people.
  • A decision is expected to be made soon on whether to allow or close the Temple Mount to Jewish visitors in the last week of Ramadan.
  • The security establishment has said there was no security reason for Jews not to visit the Temple Mount on the seventh day of Passover (tomorrow), but after that it could then be limited to Muslim worshippers for the duration of Ramadan.

April 13, 2023

Two British-Israeli sisters killed in terror attack

  • The victims of Friday’s shooting attack near Hamra in the West Bank have been named as sisters and British nationals Maia Esther Dee and Rina Miriam Dee, aged 20 and 15.
  • Their mother Lucy, 48, remains in critical condition at Hadassah Hospital Ein Kerem.
  • The three, residents of the Israeli settlement of Efrat, were travelling by car near Hamra when they came under fire, causing their vehicle to crash. Terrorists then opened fire on the stricken vehicle.
  • The victims’ father, Rabbi Leo Dee, a former senior rabbi at Radlett United Synagogue and assistant rabbi in Hendon, was travelling in a separate car.
  • While no group has claimed responsibility for the attack, Hamas praised it as “a natural response to the occupation’s ongoing crimes against Al-Aqsa Mosque and its barbaric aggression against Lebanon and the steadfast Gaza.”

Israel continues to face and respond to multi-dimensional, multi-front security situations:

Rockets from Syria:

  • Overnight Saturday, wo salvos, of three rockets each, were fired at Israel from Syria, triggering alarms in the Israeli Golan towns of Natur and Avnei Eitan.
  • Three of the rockets entered Israeli territory, one being intercepted by Iron Dome and two landing in open fields.
  • A Palestinian-Syrian militia calling itself the Al-Quds Brigade claimed responsibility for the first salvo.
  • In response, the Israeli Air Force struck sites in the Syrian areas from which the rockets emanated – said by Syrian sources to be Tel al-Jamuah, located between Tasil and Nawa – including military sites, radars and artillery positions. Earlier, IDF artillery shelled the attack area, while unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) targeted the rocket launchers.

Tel Aviv Attack:

  • In Tel Aviv on Friday, an Italian tourist was killed and seven others injured when a terrorist launched a car-ramming attack along several hundred metres of Kaufmann Street, near Charles Clore Park.
  • Alessandro Parini, a 35-year-old lawyer from Rome, died in the attack, while hospital officials have disclosed that British nationals are amongst the injured.
  • The perpetrator, killed at the scene, was later named as Yousef Abu Jaber, 45, an Israeli citizen and father of five from Kfar Qasim with no security record.
  • A police official said that “A terrorist with no history of security issues, and not a young man, who carries out an attack like this was almost certainly influenced by the incitement.”
  • Kfar Qasim Mayor Adel Badir said, “We denounce any attack against innocent people and call for all sides to show tolerance. This is not the way of Kfar Qasim residents. The city was and remains a place for coexistence and the pursuit of peace.”

Temple Mount:

  • Overnight, hundreds of Palestinians once more barricaded themselves inside al Aqsa Mosque, with the Jordanian Waqf refusing to remove them despite commitments not to allow overnight stays in the mosque during Ramadan.
  • While Defence Minister Yoav Gallant on Saturday took the unusual step of reinforcing the police in the Central District with troops from the IDF, Israeli forces declined to move to remove those inside on this occasion.
  • This morning, groups of around 20 Jews at a time are being permitted to enter the compound under guard.

Context: The latest fatalities as a result of Palestinian terrorism takes the death toll on the Israeli side to eighteen since the beginning of this year. Thirty-two people were killed in terror attacks in 2022.

  • Despite facing rockets attacks from Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip this week, none of these attacks have resulted in fatalities or injuries.
  • The responses by the IDF have been calibrated according to the sector, but have all been measured and restrained, with no reported loss of lives. However, the response in Syria – targeting the source of fire – has been more robust than the response in Lebanon, where concerns over further reprisal attacks and escalation from Hezbollah have inspired restraint.
  • Israel’s security establishment had anticipated that Ramadan would be the catalyst to spark attacks against Israel. Already a month ago, the explosion at the Megiddo Junction by a terrorist who managed to enter Israel from Lebanon with a heavy bomb raised alarm. The bomb which exploded prematurely was evidence of cooperation between Hezbollah and Palestinian terror groups. However at the time, Israel did not blame Hezbollah directly, again, partly to give them more scope to respond (or not) and avoid an escalation.
  • The working understanding from Israeli intelligence is that the rocket fire from Lebanon was not Hezbollah, which has denied responsibility, but Palestinian groups operating out of southern Lebanon.
  • However, cooperation and coordination between Hezbollah and Palestinian terror organisations, with the guidance of Iran has been growing.
  • Similarly, the working assessment remains that Hamas in Gaza does not want to see an escalation there, but prefers to incite and encourage terrorism in the West Bank.
  • To an extent, events around the Temple Mount influence all other theatres, due to the resonance of the site for Muslims and Jews.
  • A pattern has developed whereby young men armed with rocks and  fireworks lock themselves into al Aqsa mosque at night in order to provoke police and create disturbances. On Saturday night the police let them remain inside the mosque and did not confront them, whilst facilitating Jewish visitors to the site and allowing the traditional Passover priestly blessings to be conducted at the Western Wall below.
  • There is also concern that Iran is also trying to incite Israeli Arabs to join the attacks. The terror attack in Tel Aviv was committed by an Israeli Arab. Of significance, the leader of the Islamic Ra’am Party Mansour Abbas condemned the attack writing on twitter in Hebrew: “Especially during these difficult times, it is important for me to emphasise, as I have done many times in the past – as for the Tel Aviv terror attack, is not the way of the Arab society or Arab citizens in Israel. Arab leadership, particularly Ra’am and the Islamic Movement, will not condone any acts of violence against citizens, regardless of their religion, race, or ethnicity.”

Political context: Israel was already facing a severe domestic crisis, as a result of divisions caused by the government’s proposed judicial reforms.

  • The reforms and the make-up of hard right members in the coalition are also compounding the perception of a fissure in relations with the US. In this context the Iranians may believe this is an opportune moment to attack Israel.
  • This government is now marking its first 100 days in power. It is facing calls from within the right wing to act more robustly in responding to attacks. Yet for now a more considered approach, endorsed by the security establishment, to avoid escalation is being adopted.
  • The tenure of Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, remains in doubt. Two weeks ago he was fired after warning of “clear, immediate and palpable danger” to Israel’s security as a result of the proposed reforms. The firing appears suspended for now and he remains in his role.
  • Despite media speculation over a US-Israel rift, Gallant spoke with US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin and in a reassuring move the US announced that it was deploying a guided missile submarine to the Gulf and an aircraft carrier to the eastern Mediterranean.

Looking ahead: The manhunt in the West Bank for the terrorist who killed the Dee sisters is ongoing.

  • An Iranian militia has warned of more planned attacks against Israeli owned vessels in the Gulf.
  • Israel has called up Border Police reservists to augment their defensive posture particularly in Jerusalem.
  • If the attacks on Israel continue there could be a larger call up of reserves.

April 5, 2023

Aircraft downed on Israel’s northern border

  • On Sunday Israeli Air Force (IAF) helicopters and jets were scrambled after an unidentified aircraft crossed from Syria into Israeli airspace.
  • The aircraft was tracked by the IAF throughout the incident and was shot down in an open area over the Hula valley. The IDF spokesperson’s office confirmed the aircraft “posed no threat” and no alarm was activated.
  • The incident followed a report on Friday of another IAF strike inside Syria. This time the attack was in Homs in western Syria. According to Syrian reports, the attack focused on the Dabaa military airport and weapons storehouses in Qusayr, which primarily serve Hezbollah.
  • Syrian military officials reported that five Syrian army troops were injured in the attack and that some of the missiles were intercepted.
  • A Syrian military official warned Israel: “The recurring attacks point to Israel’s weakness and the inability of the treacherous army to engage on the ground. This won’t pass quietly.”
  • Defence Minister Yoav Gallant visited the Etzion Regional Brigade yesterday, but related remarks to the northern sector, warning, “We won’t allow the Iranians and Hezbollah to attack us. We haven’t allowed that in the past, we aren’t allowing that in the present and we won’t allow that in the future. We will push them out of Syria to the place they ought to be, and that is Iran.”

 The latest attack ascribed to Israel was the third attack in four days in Syria.

  • More details have emerged from the strike near Damascus on Thursday night, where an Iranian military adviser was killed. According to Arab media reports, Captain Milad Haydari helped train pro-Iranian militias on fitting inaccurate rockets with precision-guiding systems. (See here for a previous BICOM paper on these).
  • In addition, a second Iranian official who was wounded in the previous Israeli air strike reportedly died of his injuries.
  • The Iranian Foreign Ministry issued a statement accusing Israel of using the attacks in Damascus to try to distract public attention away from its domestic crisis.
  • There are suggestions that Iran sees Israel as ripe for attack as it is perceived to be preoccupied with the domestic political turbulence. However, Israel has kept up its counterterrorism operations uninterrupted and despite the fractures inside Israeli society, the country always unites when faced with an external threat.
  • The UAV into Israel and the latest strikes inside Syria can be seen through the prism of the wider Israel-Iran conflict. Just in the last month.
    • Iran has continued transferring weapons to Syria.
    • Iran also planned a terror attack in Athens targeting Israelis and Jews.
    •  Iran is also looking to increase support to Palestinian terrorist groups, as seen in the explosion at Megiddo junction last month.
  • In parallel, Syria is continuing to rehabilitate its relations with the Arab world. In the latest rapprochement, the Syrian Foreign Minister Faisel Mekdad visited Cairo and met his Egyptian counterpart Sameh Shoukry.

Other security incidents: This morning the IDF entered Nablus to arrest two men suspected of involvement in the shooting attack in Huwara a week ago in which three IDF soldiers were injured.

  • In the course of the operation and the exchanges of fire that lasted more than two hours, two Palestinians were killed after shooting at the Israeli troops, and several others were injured.
  • Also over the weekend three Israeli soldiers were injured, one in critical condition, following a car-ramming attack in Gush Etzion.
  • Palestinian sources identified the attacker, who was shot at and killed, as 23-year-old Muhammad Baradiya, an officer in the Palestinian Authority’s security forces. Shortly before the attack, he posted photographs of al-Aqsa Mosque with the caption, “We’ve asked for Paradise.”
  • In a separate incident, Muhammad Al-Osaibi, an Israeli-Arab from Hura, was shot and killed by police in the Old City of Jerusalem. According to the police Al-Osaibi snatched one of the policemen’s guns and fired it without hitting anyone.
  • Hura’s Mayor Habas al-Atawneh strongly rejected the police statement that framed the incident as a terror attack, claiming Al-Osaibi had never handled a weapon, and was a medical student who wanted to help his family.
  • The police commanders have given backing to their forces. This morning the police said Al-Osaibi’s DNA was found on the gun.
  • Unusually for the Old City, the incident occurred in a cctv blind spot, with no footage available.

 IDF troops are looking for parts of the downed aircraft. Only when it’s found will they be able to confirm if it was Iranian.

  • Ahead of Passover, a general closure will be imposed on the West Bank and crossings from the Gaza Strip suspended, but only for the first day of the festival and it will be lifted for the intermediary days.
  • In consideration of Ramadan and the desire to allow freedom of worship, Palestinian worshipers will be allowed to enter Jerusalem Friday to attend services on the Temple Mount.
  • A second closure will be imposed on the territories on the eve of the last day of Passover. However, the crossings would be opened for humanitarian and medical cases as well as for other extenuating circumstances.

Make a media enquiry

Enquire now

Related Content


Will Trump bring peace to Gaza?
Why were two Labour MPs not allowed into Israel?
Why recognition of a Palestinian state rewards terror?

Newsletter sign-up

Please enter your information below to subscribe to our daily newsletter and stay updated and informed.

Donate to BICOM

At BICOM, we rely on the generosity of people like you to keep our website and services running. Your donation, no matter the size, makes a real difference. Please consider supporting us today. For further information please email: [email protected]