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Updated September 17, 2024

Gallant: only ‘military’ action can bring displaced northern Israelis home

What’s happened: Israel’s Security Cabinet has designated the return of internally displaced northern residents an official war goal as Gallant tells special US envoy only “military” action can allow them to return home.

  • The Prime Minister’s Office has released a statement confirming that the Security Cabinet has updated its war goals for Operation Swords of Iron to include a fourth objective: “The safe return of the residents of the north to their homes”.
  • Thus far, Israel’s stated war aims have been to eliminate Hamas’s military and governing capabilities, return all hostages, and ensure that the Gaza Strip no longer poses a threat to Israel. This statement marks their first delineation of a strategic goal in the northern theatre.
  • This announcement comes following a meeting between Israeli Defence Minister Gallant and US Envoy Hochstein. While the Biden Administration and Hochstein have consistently advocated for a diplomatic solution to de-escalate tensions with Hezbollah, Gallant confirmed to Hochstein that time had run out for negotiations and that a military operation was the only remaining option.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu echoed this view in a subsequent meeting with Hochstein making it very clear that “that it will not be possible to return our residents without a fundamental change in the security situation in the north”.

Context: Since 8th October, Hezbollah has launched near daily attacks on northern Israel with drones, rockets, and anti-tank guided missiles.

  • These attacks have killed 26 civilians, 20 soldiers, and forced the displacement of 80,000 residents living living in 28 evacuated localities and the city of Kiryat Shmona close to the Lebanese border.
  • Data from mid-May showed that approximately 930 homes within a 9 kilometre range from the border have been damaged. Israel’s Nature and Parks Authority estimates that approximately 140,000 dunams have been damaged by fires from Hezbollah missiles since the beginning of 2024.
  • The IDF has sought to downgrade Hezbollah’s military capacity and its rocket and missile-firing capabilities. In this context, it has carried out airstrikes along the Iraqi-Syrian border and the Syrian-Lebanese border to destroy Hezbollah air defence systems. However, while Israel has pushed most of Hezbollah’s special operations forces away from the border, they have ultimately failed to prevent it from continuing to fire on Israel.
  • With little to no sign of these attacks abating, the prospect of an Israeli ground incursion into Lebanon is becoming increasingly likely. It has also been reported that the IDF is considering establishing and occupying a buffer zone in southern Lebanon.
  • In November 2023, Hezbollah unilaterally honoured a brief ceasefire agreed between Israel and Hamas and subsequently indicated that it would do so again if another deal was reached.
  • In February, France submitted a proposal to Lebanon to secure a ceasefire and resolve Lebanon’s border disputes with Israel. The proposal would see Hezbollah withdraw roughly ten kilometres from the Israeli border (less than it is commanded to do by UN Resolution 1701), and to dismantle its military infrastructure within that zone. Some 15,000 Lebanese army troops would be deployed in the area to ensure future compliance with the buffer zone. In response, Hezbollah said it would not comment until a ceasefire had been achieved in Gaza.
  • However, with an Israel-Hamas ceasefire becoming ever more elusive, so too is the prospect of a de-escalation with Hezbollah despite France and the US’s efforts to encourage a diplomatic solution.

Looking ahead: Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly intends to fire Defence Minister Gallant and replace him with former Likud ally and current Chair of the New Hope party, Gideon Saar.

  • Rumours of Gallant’s impending dismissal have circulated for months. While Saar initially rejected rumours he would consider joining the Netanyahu government – he has campaigned against Netanyahu since forming his own right wing party in December 2020 – he is now thought to be open to joining the coalition and being appointed Defence Minister.
  • Gallant and Netanyahu’s relationship has been tense since March 2023 when Gallant urged a slow down of the government’s judicial reform and Netanyahu fired him (and intense public pressure led to Netanyahu backtracking).
  • More recent differences between the two men have included opposing a bill aimed at enlisting ultra-Orthodox men, the necessity of a ceasefire deal with Hamas, and the importance of the Philadelphi Corridor on the Gaza-Egypt border

September 13, 2024

IDF declares Hamas military defeated in Rafah

What’s happened: The IDF has announced that the four Hamas battalions in Rafah have been operationally dismantled.

  • Over the last few months more than 2,000 terrorists have been killed. The IDF have destroyed approximately 13 km of underground tunnel, constituting 80% of the smuggling routes underneath the Philadelphi Corridor on the Egyptian border.
  • Combat engineers are expected to continue their work to find and destroy any remaining tunnels.
  • In the north, Hezbollah have continued to fires rockets into northern Israel.  Last night around 20 rockets were fired toward Safed. No injuries have been reported, but the fire service worked through the night extinguishing flames.
  • Sirens were again sounded across areas in northern Israel in close proximity to the border with Lebanon, as Israeli Air Force jets carried out counter strikes on Hezbollah military sites southern Lebanon.
  • According to Syrian opposition sources, more details have emerged of the alleged Israeli strike on the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) facility in the Masyaf area in earlier this week.
  • According to their report the attack consisted of three phases:
    • Israeli fighter jets struck all the approach roads preventing access to the site. According to eye witnesses this also included striking vehicles in the vicinity that tried to reach the facility.
    • Israeli commandos dropped from their helicopter and entered the facility which Israel suspected was used by the IRGC to develop advanced weapons to Hezbollah. According to the report, the IDF commandos were on the ground for an hour and collected documents and other intelligence material
    • Once the troops left, the site was destroyed.
  • There were further suggestions that Iranian personnel were also captured, but the Iranians have denied this. The Syrian government has denied the attack took place and Israeli officials have remained silent.
  • Israel has targeted Iranian assets in hundreds of times over the last few years, but an operation of this type, involving Israeli troops on the ground, if true, would be represent a significant and unique accomplishment.

Context: The completion of operations in Rafah seems to mark the end of Phase 2 of the war, with the conquering of the command and control capabilities of the Hamas battalions that operated in Gaza a year ago.

  • Over the last few months the army had already begun transitioning to Phase 3, which is characterised by smaller targeted counter-insurgency operations (across the Strip) while forces hold the two key corridors – Netzarim that bisects the strip in the centre, and Philadelphi in the south.
  • The ground operation in Rafah lasted around four months. It was considered extremely sensitive and caused friction with Israel’s allies over the concern for the civilian population, which had swelled to 1.4 million on due to Gazans fleeing from other areas of Gaza.
  • However ahead of the operation the IDF cleared a humanitarian corridor north to Khan Yunis and the al-Mawasi safe zone.
  • Israel had always cited the importance of taking over Rafah as it functioned as the main smuggling route for Hamas over many years and significantly enhanced their ability to import weapons and explosives into the Strip, largely from Iran.
  • Rafah was also thought to be the hiding place of Hamas’s remaining leadership including Yahya Sinwar. Despite the IDF successfully targeting numerous senior Hamas figures, Sinwar and his brother Mohammad remain at large.
  • The third motivation of the Rafah operation was to free hostages. Here there was limited success, with two successful operations that saw the release of four hostages alive.
  • Two weeks ago the IDF recovered the bodies of six hostages, who were tragically assassinated days earlier, having survived in horrific conditions in a dark, humid tunnel, unable to stand up straight for over 10 months.
  • The death of the six hostages and the exposure of the conditions in which they were held has led to further intensify the public protests to reach a deal for the release of the remaining 101 hostages.

Looking ahead: Israeli media reports are suggesting that IDF Chief of Staff Halevi is making preparations to resign at the end of the year.

  • The end of Rafah operation adds further speculation as to whether the IDF will now pivot attention into a more offensive posture in the north.
  • Around 80,000 residents of the north remain internally displaced, with growing pressure on the government to reach a solution either diplomatic or military to allow them to return home in peace and security

August 1, 2024

Israel on high alert following assassination of senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders

What’s happened: Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has issued an order for Iran to strike Israel directly, in retaliation for the killing in Tehran of Hamas’s leader, Ismail Haniyeh.

  • In his public statement, Iran’s supreme leader, said: “we see avenging his blood our duty,” because it happened on the territory of the Islamic Republic. He said Israel had set the stage for receiving “a severe punishment.”
  • In a memorial ceremony held in Tehran, the Ayatollah personally led the prayers, while also speaking at the ceremony, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said that the Israeli regime committed a ‘strategic mistake’.
  • In Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed the nation on Wednesday evening and described the current conflict as an “existential war against a stranglehold of terrorist armies and missiles that Iran would like to tighten around our neck.”
  • Speaking of Hezbollah’s number two Shukr, Netanyahu said that he “was directly responsible for the massacre of our dear boys and girls in Majdal Shams. He was responsible for the murder of many other Israeli citizens. He was responsible for the unceasing assault against our citizens in the northern communities over nine months of war.”
  • “He was one of the most wanted terrorists in the world. The US put a $5 million bounty on his head, and for good reason. He was involved in the murder of 241 American soldiers and 58 French soldiers in Beirut in 1983. He was the main liaison between Iran and Hezbollah and he was responsible for the organisation’s missiles,” Netanyahu added.
  • Defence Minister Gallant spoke to his counterpart US Secretary of State Austin who reassured him by saying, “We certainly will help defend Israel. You saw us do that April. You can expect to see us do that again.”
  • The US has also  now deployed at least 12 warships to the region, including the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, amphibious assault teams and over 4,000 Marines and sailors.
  • In a further unconfirmed attack, sources are claiming that Brig Gen Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Forces, has been killed in a targeted attack close to Damascus. Hajizadeh is understood to have been the senior commander who oversaw the Iranian ballistic and cruise missile attack in April against Israel.

Context: While Israel has not formally taken responsibility for the strike in Tehran, the dual targets in Beirut and Tehran within a few hours appears to be an impressive intelligence and operational achievement for Israel.

  • Open speculation remains as to how Haniyeh was killed. Some reports suggest a missile was launched from outside Iran, while others believe the targeted killing was implemented from a closer proximity, implying operatives on the ground.
  • This is the latest targeted strike inside Iran, further exposing the gaps in the regime’s internal security.
  • As a formal guest of the Ayatollah, and staying in a ‘secure residence’ operated by the IRGC, Haniyeh’s death is seen in Iran as constituting a further psychological blow to the regime, which is likely also a factor in their consideration of response.
  • According to the Iranian warning, a response may come directly from Iran – similar to the attack in April in which 300+ drones and missiles were fired at the Israeli home front. Alternatively, the possibility exists that Iran will utilise all of the members of its Axis of Resistance – in , Iraq and Yemen – to carry out an integrated multi-theatre response.
  • Israel will be partly reassured by US Secretary Austin’s support and will hope that the regional alliance between Israel, US and regional partners, known as Middle East Air Defence (MEAD), will be as effective as thwarting the Iranian attack in April.
  • The strikes on Haniyeh and Shukr are the latest example of an Israeli tactic to target the top leadership in Hamas and Hezbollah.
    • In early January, Saleh Al-Arouri, Haniyeh’s deputy and one of the founders of the armed wing of Hamas, was killed in Beirut (although Israel did not take formal responsibility).
    • In mid-July, a strike in Gaza killed Mohammed Deif, head of Hamas’ military wing.  The confirmation of his death was formally recognised by Israel this morning.
    • In March, Marwan Issa, Deif’s deputy was killed.
    • In April, an airstrike in Damascus killed a number of senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers, including its top officer in , Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi.
  • Haniyeh, who has been Hamas’ political leader since 2017, is the highest -profile member of the group to be killed following the October 7 attack and Israel’s retaliatory offensive in Gaza.
  • On October 7th he was recorded praying in celebration of the attacks, and called on West Bank Palestinians to join the battle.
  • Today is the 300th day since October 7th, with 115 hostages remain in Hamas captivity. Inside Israel, hostage families and their supporters continue their campaign to pressure the government to move forward with the deal.
  • According to Prime Minister Netanyahu the extended military campaign serves to increase the pressure on Hamas and to support Israel in the negotiations. Others are concerned Haniyeh’s death makes a deal harder to conclude.
  • In parallel, IDF troops are continuing operational activity in Gaza.
    • In the Rafah area troops are currently operating in the area of Tel al-Sultan, where they dismantled a structure rigged with explosives that was used by Hamas terrorists.
    • In the area of Khan Yunis, launchers loaded with rockets and aimed toward Israeli territory were struck by the IDF.

Looking ahead: Following the memorial ceremony in Tehran, Haniyeh’s body will be flown to Doha for a formal burial.

  • An Iranian response is anticipated in the coming days with Israel on a peak state of alert preparing for any scenario. Israel’s air defences are on maximum alert, the air force jets patrolling the skies and ground forces on heightened vigilance along all the borders.
  • The head of Israeli Air Force, Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar said, “The Israeli Air Force defends and operates in all arenas of the war, enveloping the State of Israel with dozens of aircraft, manned and unmanned, ready and prepared within minutes for any scenario, in any arena. We will act against anyone planning to harm the citizens of the State of Israel, there Is nowhere that is too far for us to strike”
  • So far the Israel’s Home Front command has not yet given any further instructions to the Israeli civilian population.

July 29, 2024

Israel considers response to deadly Hezbollah attack on Golan Heights

What’s happened: Israelis are bracing for a significant escalation in the north, following Saturday’s deadly Hezbollah strike on a football field in the Golan Heights which killed 12 children.

  • The rocket attack, which also left 40 injured, targeted the Majdal Shams community late Saturday afternoon. Despite Hezbollah denials of responsibility, the IDF concluded that the attack was carried out by the Iranian-backed group, using an Iranian Falaq-1 rocket with a warhead of over 110 pounds of explosives, fired from southeastern Lebanon.
  • The US echoed Israel’s attribution of the attack to Hezbollah, National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson saying “it was their rocket, and launched from an area they control… Our support for Israel’s security is ironclad,” Watson added, “and unwavering against all Iran-backed threats, including Hezbollah,”  which, “started firing at Israel on October 8, claiming solidarity with Hamas, another terror organisation in Iran’s so-called ‘Axis of Resistance.’”
  • UK Ambassador to Israel Simon Walters wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that it was “especially horrific that the target was children playing football. Our hearts go to all the families of all of those who were killed or injured, and to the entire Druze population.” Condemnations of Hezbollah also followed from other western allies, including Germany, France, and Canada.
  • The 12 fatalities were all aged between 10 and 20 and all from the Druze community. They were: Ameer Rabeea Abu Saleh, 16, Iseel Nasha’at Ayoub, 12, Hazem Akram Abu Saleh, 15, Milad Muadad Alsha’ar, 10, Alma Ayman Fakher Eldin, 11, Naji Taher Alhalabi, 11, Johnny Wadeea Ibrahim, 13, Yazan Nayeif Abu Saleh, 12, Fajer Laith Abu Saleh, 16, Vinees Adham Alsafadi, 11 Nathem Fakher Saeb, 16, and Jifara Ibrahim, 11.
  • The Saleh family lost four brothers in the attack.
  • Of the injured, two children remain in critical condition, and one in moderate condition. All have sustained abdominal injuries, chest injuries, and limb fractures.
  • Israeli leaders swiftly promised a firm response. “I can say that the State of Israel will not allow this incident to pass quietly. We are not going to go about business as usual,” said Prime Minister Netanyahu.
  • IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said, “this incident will lead to a very, very significant response. We’re going to hit Hezbollah hard; we’re going to take Hezbollah back in time. We’re going to bring the families back to their homes in the north safely.”
  • The Foreign Ministry said Hezbollah had “crossed all red lines” with the attack. “This is not an army fighting another army, rather it is a terrorist organisation deliberately shooting at civilians.”
  • Netanyahu cut short his visit to the US to return to Israel. The security cabinet then met yesterday afternoon to discuss Israel’s response, and authorised Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant to decide on the “manner and timing” of Israel’s retaliation. Far-right ministers Ben Gvir and Smotrich, who have repeatedly and loudly called for tougher Israeli policy on all fronts, abstained from the vote.
  • Speaking in Tokyo, US Secretary of State Blinken “emphasize[d] (Israel’s) right to defend its citizens and our determination to make sure that they’re able to do that,” while adding that “we also don’t want to see the conflict escalate. We don’t want to see it spread. It’s so important that we help defuse that conflict, not only prevent it from escalating, prevent it from spreading, but to defuse it because you have so many people in both countries, in both Israel and Lebanon, who’ve been displaced from their homes.”
  • Limited Israeli responses against Hezbollah operatives have already begun. Reports this morning claim that two died and three were injured in an Israeli drone strike outside the southern Lebanese town of Shaqra. In a separate attack, one person was killed and four wounded in Israeli airstrikes on a car and motorcycle driving between the towns of Mays al-Jabal and Shaqra in southern Lebanon.
  • Lebanese and Palestinian sources also reported heavy shelling in the town of Houla this morning. The IDF also shot down a drone which crossed into the Western Galilee from Lebanon. The intrusion prompted alarms in Yaara and Adamit, Israeli towns near the Lebanese border.
  • In a further statement of intent, earlier on Saturday, Hezbollah also launched a drone towards Israel’s Karish offshore natural gas platforms. The drone was intercepted by the Israeli Navy’s Saar 6 missile boat, but the attack served as a warning that Hezbollah has the capacity to launch more precise weapons to target Israeli energy infrastructure.

Context: The attack on Saturday was the deadliest strike on civilians carried out by Hezbollah since the Second Lebanon War, and the greatest loss of civilians on the Israeli side since October 7th.

  • The initial Hezbollah denial is likely a result of their embarrassment at killing Druze children and an awareness that they have significantly escalated the simmering conflict by striking civilians. It appears likely that Hezbollah fired heavy but inaccurate rockets aimed at the IDF base on Mount Hermon, situated above Majdal Shams, and that one of the rockets overshot its intended target, causing devastation.
  • Sirens were sounded in the community, but due to the close proximity and a matter of seconds there was no time to reach a protected space.
  • The Druze of the Golan have a complicated relationship with the State of Israel. Taken over in the 1967 Six Day War, many held onto their Syrian identity despite Israel formally extending its laws, jurisdiction and administration to the Golan Heights in 1981.
  • Druze of the Golan have the option of applying for Israeli citizenship, many more have done so in the last decade and half after observing at close quarters the regime violence during the Syrian civil war.
  • The attack in Majdal Shams will also raise tension inside Lebanon and , which both hold significant Druze communities and place Hezbollah in a difficult domestic predicament.
  • Druze are traditionally loyal to their home country, hence residual loyalty of some Golan Druze to , whilst  many of their Druze brethren in the Galilee proudly serve in the IDF and are fully integrated into Israeli society.
  • The Israeli security cabinet decision to empower the prime minister and defence minister to decide on the Israeli response serves two purposes; it cuts the need to reconvene the cabinet, thereby adding to the element of surprise. Secondly, it excludes the more extreme government ministers from the decision-making process.
  • Despite significant damage, Hezbollah attacks and Israeli responses have been carefully weighted, with both sides understanding the ‘rules of the game’, whereby fatal strikes are reciprocated but with an emphasis on avoiding the escalation to all-out war.

Looking ahead: In calibrating its response, Israel will need to carefully calibrate between a forceful response which underlines that attacks of this kind cannot go unanswered, with a desire to prevent further escalation.

  • Among the possible responses being considered are:
    • Targeting a strategic Hezbollah site: a weapons depot or military infrastructure;
    • A strike on Lebanese civilian infrastructure, such as an energy depot or transport hub. An attack of this nature would serve the purpose of prompting the Lebanese government to act to restrain Hezbollah. However, it also runs the risk of uniting Lebanon’s various communities behind Hezbollah.
    • An attack on Hezbollah sites in Beirut which, with the exception of the targeted strike on Hamas leader al-Arouri in January, have largely been avoided.
    • Targeted assassinations of senior Hezbollah figures.

July 26, 2023

Economic repercussions of judicial reform

What happened: Two days after the government unilaterally cancelled the reasonability clause, three international financial institutions – Moody’s, Morgan Stanley and Citibank – released statements yesterday.

  • Credit rating agency Moody’s issued an unscheduled report that warned about “negative consequences” and “significant risk” for Israel’s economy and the security situation.
  • Specifically they warned, “Venture capital investments in Israeli high-tech firms have declined materially, with the sector raising $3.7 billion in the first six months of the year, the lowest figure since 2019. While the slowdown reflects global trends… there are also signs that Israel is decoupling from global trends.”
  • Morgan Stanley released its report recommending against investing in Israeli bonds. “We see increased uncertainty about the economic outlook in the coming months and risks becoming skewed to our adverse scenario.”
  • Citibank recommended investors wait for a calmer or more certain market.
  • Citibank also related to attacks by government ministers on Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara. “The Attorney General has been a focal point for harsh criticism from many coalition members, painting her as blocking many of the government’s agendas. Local speculation is that the PM could fire her, thereby removing another obstacle and with the reasonableness bill now passed, the court would not be able to intervene. This however would be a dangerous move given the fierce reactions from markets as well as international voices, most probably rating agencies.”

Government’s response: Prime Minister Netanyahu and Finance Minister Smotrich issued a joint statement in response to Moody’s: “This is a momentary response; when the dust clears, it will be clear that the Israeli economy is very strong.”

  • “The security industries are bursting with orders. The gas industry is increasing exports to Europe and seven companies are now competing for tenders to explore for gas in Israel at an investment worth billions. Intel is planning its largest investment outside of the US ever and will invest $25 billion in Israel. NVIDIA is building a supercomputer in Israel and we are moving forward in AI, cyber and the manufacture of chips in Israel. Growth is increasing and inflation has been blocked. Regulation is being lifted and free market competition is increasing.”
  • They concluded, “The Israeli economy is based on strong fundamentals and will continue to grow under experienced leadership that is enacting a responsible economic policy.”

Context: Moody’s did not plan to release a report but made the decision following the passing of the law.

  • Back in April, Moody’s downgraded Israel’s credit rating outlook but kept the actual rating at A1.
  • At the time Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke with Moody’s representatives and reassured them that the reforms would only be advanced with a consensus.
  • The credit agency had recommended three criteria:
    • Broad agreement.
    • Measured reforms.
    • Slower pace.
  • In parallel yesterday, Israeli stock markets continued to fall and the shekel further weakened.
  • As well as the economic repercussions, there was also political fallout (see polling below).
  • In the security domain there is ongoing concern over the army’s cohesion and readiness. IDF Chief of Staff Halevi released a statement yesterday noting, “Days of dispute and crisis require an emphasis on what we have in common and what unites us: the mission of defending the State of Israel, which is our foremost obligation. The IDF is ready for any challenge, which is imperative to ensuring the existence of the State of Israel.”

Looking ahead: Israelis are now waiting to see if after the summer break the government will continue to advance other aspects of the reform or not.

  • Moody’s is not expected to release its full credit rating for Israel until the autumn.
  • However other international credit agencies could downgrade Israel’s credit rating earlier. For example Fitch is expected to release its report on Israel in the first half of August.
  • Meanwhile, Moody’s still expects the country’s economy to grow at a rate of 3% both this year and in 2024, but cautioned that the projection does not “incorporate a negative effect from a prolonged period of social and political tensions.”

July 7, 2023

Anti-government protests intensify

What happened: Over the last two nights protestors have gathered across the country in continued opposition to the planned judicial reforms.

  • Last night hundreds of activists gathered outside the homes of several government ministers loudly protesting against the reforms.
  • Several people were arrested for disturbing the peace and allegedly assaulting police officers.
  • For a second evening in a row, protestors also blocked the main Ayalon motorway through Tel Aviv.
  • On Wednesday night tens of thousands of people joined spontaneous protest across the country, with the most significant taking place in Tel Aviv.
  • The protests were triggered by two events:
    • Tel Aviv District Police Commander Ami Eshed, made a public statement claiming he had been fired for “political reasons.”
    • Earlier in the day the Knesset’s Constitution, Law and Justice Committee approved the bill to reduce the Supreme Court’s ability to intervene on the grounds of reasonability. The bill will now go the Knesset for the first reading.
  • As a result, on Wednesday night thousands of people blocked the motorway in Tel Aviv. Some lit bonfires, spray-painted slogans on the asphalt, set off fireworks, while many carried the Israeli flag and placards. The demonstrators defied the police’s orders to leave and sang a song that was directed at the police officers: “How did you sell out Ami Eshed? He’s a hero.”
  • On Wednesday, twenty-five people were arrested, but released the next day. Fourteen people were hospitalised.
  • Shikma Bressler, one of the leaders of the protest movement warned, “The dictatorship laws are here, political impeachments are carried out by the Israel Police day and night, the Israeli economy is collapsing, the glue that bound Israeli society together is deliberately burned every day by people like Ben-Gvir, Rothman, and Levin, whose ideology they share is foreign to the Zionist vision.”

Context: In parallel to the multi-theatre security challenges, the government is also advancing its scaled back version of the judicial reform.

  • Due to the protests, the perceived damage to the economy and international criticism the government has withdrawn the most controversial aspects.
  • However, Deputy Attorney General Gil Limon warned that, “In the absence of the grounds of reasonability, elected officials’ obligation to act reasonably will disappear, creating a possible black hole and a serious blow to the basic values of Israeli democracy.”
  • One of the government’s main objectives in removing reasonability is to allow the reappointment of Shas leader Aryeh Deri to the cabinet.
  • His appointment was cancelled by the court as “unreasonable in the extreme,” as he has been repeatedly convicted of criminal offences. However, in their ruling other judges cited ‘estoppel’ as another breach, implying that even if reasonability was overturned it would still be difficult to reappoint him. Ironically, despite being found guilty of corruption, in most policy matters he is considered a moderating influence.
  • It’s rare for protests to come out in support of a senior police officer, but Ami Eshed has received significant public support over the last few months due to his tolerant approach to the demonstrators, particularly allowing then to temporarily close main traffic arteries.  As such, Minister Ben Gvir, with responsibility over the police, has been trying to remove him for several months.

Looking ahead: For the 27th consecutive week large protests are expected across the county on Saturday night.

  • The legality of the continued protests will be discussed at the cabinet meeting on Sunday. Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara is expected to be intensively questioned as she defends the independence of the police and the public’s right to protest.
  • The government want the ability to increase enforcement against demonstrations that block roads and disrupt Israel’s ports, public transportation, and Ben Gurion Airport.
  • On Tuesday the Knesset is expected to vote on the first reading of the bill to reduce the grounds of reasonability.
  • The protest movement is calling for people to take the day off work and demonstrate, a “protest never before seen in Israel.”
  • The government hopes to pass the three readings on reasonability by the end of the month, when the Knesset goes into summer recess.

May 31, 2023

Efforts resume to reach compromise on judicial reform

  • The representatives of the coalition and opposition resumed their dialogue yesterday under the auspice of the President’s office.
  • President Herzog left yesterday on a diplomatic mission to meet the President of Azerbaijan, but before leaving related to the compromise talks saying, “We can reach understandings. It takes effort, goodwill, and leadership, and I say: Ignore the background noise and think about the goal…No one will violate our values or basic principles.”
  • Last night the two leading opposition party leaders, Lapid and Gantz put out a joint statement: “We are continuing all the time in a true attempt to reach broad agreements, and are committed to keeping Israel democratic and stable. We are attentive to the voices and know that most of the public want dialogue over leaving the room.”
  • “Dialogue at the President’s Residence is the only possibility to find a joint solution. Nonetheless, we clarified that the continuation of the talks are contingent on the chance to reach an advancement, on the commitment to the process in the room and outside of it, and on stopping the sword of the judicial overhaul with a clear commitment that there will be no legislation that will lead to a change in Israel’s system of government.”
  • However, also yesterday, Religious Zionist Party MK Rothman, chairman of the Knesset Constitution, Law and Justice Committee, and one of the drivers of the reforms (and not part of the compromise talks) told Kan Radio that the talks were “meaningless,” and that “if the president had wanted to lead to agreements, he had thousands of opportunities… I do not intend to waste my precious time on futile discussions.”
  • Context: The compromise talks resumed yesterday following a break that saw the government successfully pass a two-year budget that gives it relative stability.
  • There are contradictory voices from with the ruling Likud Party on whether the issue of judicial reform will return to the legislative agenda.
  • Earlier in the week Yediot Ahronot anonymously quoted several senior Likud figures who said the judicial reform is dead. They argued that given the overall circumstances, including the political and economic challenges and the social divides within society, Netanyahu has come to recognise that there is no real option of advancing the reform.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu has denied those claims, emphasising the importance of the talks at the President’s Residence. At the weekly Likud Knesset faction meeting Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “the reform is not dead, but we are making every effort at dialogue in order to reach a broad consensus. Don’t believe what you read… Not even in Yediot Ahronot. There are a lot of things going on, many processes; I don’t want to go into all of them. The people who are ‘inside’ the issues are inside; others will be soon. I understand that this is causing a certain frustration and a situation that we are not sharing things at any given moment, but the intentions are good.”
  • There is continued speculation over gaps within the Likud, with Justice Minister Levin remaining hawkish in his reform agenda, whist Netanyahu appears invested in the compromise talks being led by his close confidant Minister Dermer.
  • Meanwhile protests against the judicial reform have continued, on Saturday night for the 21st consecutive week, tens of thousands demonstrated in Tel Aviv, where former Defence Minister Yaalon called on Lapid and Gantz to “stop acting as fig leaves for the prime minister” and “leave the negotiations.”
  • Whilst both sides currently remain committed to dialogue, the reform of the judges selection committee bill remains frozen, but can be return to the Knesset agenda to be passed into law with a day’s notice.
  • Looking ahead: The next deadline is the election of the Knesset representatives for the judges selection committee, scheduled for June 14.
  • In the current format the committee includes two members of Knesset, one from the government and one from the opposition. (The rest of the nine person committee includes two government ministers, three Supreme Court justices and two members of the Israel Bar Association. Also, one each of the Knesset members, ministers, judges and Bar Association members must be a woman).
  • There is concern whether the government will keep with this convention, or deny an opposition a place on the committee.
  • The nominees need to be presented a week earlier, by that point it will be clear if the coalition will respect the existing makeup – by only presenting one candidates.
  • Even if the Knesset selects one coalition and one opposition, it is still at Justice Minister Levin’s discretion whether to convene the committee.
  • Two justices for the Supreme Court, including President Hayut are due to retire at the end of October.

May 25, 2023

Israel passes 2023/24 budget

Overnight the Knesset passed the budget and affiliated arrangements law.

  • All sixty-four members of the governing coalition voted in favour, ensuring a comfortable majority.
  • In a stormy parliamentary session, Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “We are passing a responsible, excellent budget that will faithfully serve the citizens of Israel and lead to an improvement in their quality of life.”
  • Netanyahu continued, “The budget promotes great revolutions, in personal safety, in education, in transportation and in the fight against the cost of living.”
  • During his speech, he was heckled by opposition members, who called him a “dictator,” whilst thousands protested against the budget outside the Knesset.
  • The budget was criticised by leader of the National Unity Party Benny Gantz who said, “The cost of living is rising and the coalition has not introduced a single serious reform to deal with it. People are sitting in traffic jams, and the coalition has nothing to say about national infrastructure. People are being murdered in the streets in huge numbers and are afraid to leave their homes—and the coalition is busy talking about budgets and jobs that have no bearing on reality. Netanyahu, the responsibility is on you.”
  • Leader of the Opposition Lapid wrote on Twitter this morning, “While you were sleeping, the worst and most destructive budget in the country’s history was passed. This budget is a violation of the contract with Israel’s citizens, which all of us, and our children and our children’s children, will pay for.”

Context: Passing the budget is a crucial milestone, that now gives the government some stability. Had the budget not passed by the end of the month the government would automatically have fallen, precipitating new elections.

  • The budget for 2023 will be 484 billion shekels (£105bn) and in 2024 it will be 514 billion shekel, (£112bn) the largest in the country’s history.
  • In order to pass this budget, the ruling Likud Party held negotiations and eventually reached understandings with Jewish Power and the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism (UTJ).
  • Jewish Power received an additional allocation of 250 million shekels (£54m) to the Negev, Galilee and National Resilience Ministry’s budget. This extra funding will come from budget surpluses from other ministries. Minister Ben Gvir, the leader of Jewish Power, had initially sought an additional 850 million shekels (£184m).
  • Meanwhile, the leader of UTJ, Housing Minister Goldknopf, will also receive an additional 250 million shekels (£54m) for retroactive payments for yeshiva students that had been cut by the previous government.
  • This decision will award a one-time pay out of 2,500 shekels (£543) to every yeshiva student.
  • This was not part of the formal budget and will be allocated out of budget surpluses from other ultra-Orthodox controlled ministries.
  • Overall, fourteen billion shekels (£3bn) were allocated to meet commitments made in the coalition agreements, which includes increased funding for ultra-Orthodox education; double the amount of previous years.
  • Earlier in the week 280 economists, including the former director general of the Finance Ministry, Avi Ben Bassat, and the former director of the Budgets Department, Udi Nisan, published a letter stating, “The money transfers being made in keeping with the coalition agreements… are likely to cause significant and long-term damage to the Israeli economy and to its future as a prosperous country. This is because of the unprecedented increase in allocating resources to ultra-Orthodox institutions that are unofficial, without making this conditional on supervision and on full core curriculum studies…These measures will deny children in ultra-Orthodox  schools the option of acquiring the vital basic skills for being integrated as adults into the job market in an advanced economy and…it will lower the chances of ultra-Orthodox adults to earn a dignified living and it will increase poverty.”
  • The budget coincides with growing concern over increasing cost of living, from basic food products to rent and mortgage repayments. Earlier this week the Bank of Israel raised the interest rate for the tenth time in one year, to now stand at 4.75 per cent.

Looking ahead: The implementation of the budget and monitoring of ministerial surpluses will be overseen by the Knesset Finance Committee, led by MK Moshe Gafni (UTJ).

  • With the budget now passed, attention will return to the issue of judicial reform. The government and opposition will return to negotiations facilitated by President Herzog in an effort to reach a compromise.
  • The other major agenda item that will be legislating is the ultra-Orthodox exemptions from military service, where the High Court set a deadline for the end of July.

May 25, 2023

Israel’s government passes budget for 2023/24

What happened: Overnight the Knesset passed the budget and affiliated arrangements law.

  • All sixty-four members of the governing coalition voted in favour, ensuring a comfortable majority.
  • In a stormy parliamentary session, Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “We are passing a responsible, excellent budget that will faithfully serve the citizens of Israel and lead to an improvement in their quality of life.”
  • Netanyahu continued, “The budget promotes great revolutions, in personal safety, in education, in transportation and in the fight against the cost of living.”
  • During his speech, he was heckled by opposition members, who called him a “dictator,” whilst thousands protested against the budget outside the Knesset.
  • The budget was criticised by leader of the National Unity Party Benny Gantz who said, “The cost of living is rising and the coalition has not introduced a single serious reform to deal with it. People are sitting in traffic jams, and the coalition has nothing to say about national infrastructure. People are being murdered in the streets in huge numbers and are afraid to leave their homes—and the coalition is busy talking about budgets and jobs that have no bearing on reality. Netanyahu, the responsibility is on you.”
  • Leader of the Opposition Lapid wrote on Twitter this morning, “While you were sleeping, the worst and most destructive budget in the country’s history was passed. This budget is a violation of the contract with Israel’s citizens, which all of us, and our children and our children’s children, will pay for.”

Context: Passing the budget is a crucial milestone, that now gives the government some stability. Had the budget not passed by the end of the month the government would automatically have fallen, precipitating new elections.

  • The budget for 2023 will be 484 billion shekels (£105bn) and in 2024 it will be 514 billion shekel, (£112bn) the largest in the country’s history.
  • In order to pass this budget, the ruling Likud Party held negotiations and eventually reached understandings with Jewish Power and the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism (UTJ).
  • Jewish Power received an additional allocation of 250 million shekels (£54m) to the Negev, Galilee and National Resilience Ministry’s budget. This extra funding will come from budget surpluses from other ministries. Minister Ben Gvir, the leader of Jewish Power, had initially sought an additional 850 million shekels (£184m).
  • Meanwhile, the leader of UTJ, Housing Minister Goldknopf, will also receive an additional 250 million shekels (£54m) for retroactive payments for yeshiva students that had been cut by the previous government.
  • This decision will award a one-time pay out of 2,500 shekels (£543) to every yeshiva student.
  • This was not part of the formal budget and will be allocated out of budget surpluses from other ultra-Orthodox controlled ministries.
  • Overall, fourteen billion shekels (£3bn) were allocated to meet commitments made in the coalition agreements, which includes increased funding for ultra-Orthodox education; double the amount of previous years.
  • Earlier in the week 280 economists, including the former director general of the Finance Ministry, Avi Ben Bassat, and the former director of the Budgets Department, Udi Nisan, published a letter stating, “The money transfers being made in keeping with the coalition agreements… are likely to cause significant and long-term damage to the Israeli economy and to its future as a prosperous country. This is because of the unprecedented increase in allocating resources to ultra-Orthodox institutions that are unofficial, without making this conditional on supervision and on full core curriculum studies…These measures will deny children in ultra-Orthodox  schools the option of acquiring the vital basic skills for being integrated as adults into the job market in an advanced economy and…it will lower the chances of ultra-Orthodox adults to earn a dignified living and it will increase poverty.”
  • The budget coincides with growing concern over increasing cost of living, from basic food products to rent and mortgage repayments. Earlier this week the Bank of Israel raised the interest rate for the tenth time in one year, to now stand at 4.75 per cent.

Looking ahead: The implementation of the budget and monitoring of ministerial surpluses will be overseen by the Knesset Finance Committee, led by MK Moshe Gafni (UTJ).

  • With the budget now passed, attention will return to the issue of judicial reform. The government and opposition will return to negotiations facilitated by President Herzog in an effort to reach a compromise.
  • The other major agenda item that will be legislating is the ultra-Orthodox exemptions from military service, where the High Court set a deadline for the end of July. For more detailed analysis see our recent paper.

May 22, 2023

Three Palestinians killed in IDF raid

Overnight the IDF operated simultaneously in Balata refugee camp (in the Nablus area) and in Jenin.

  • In Balata, three Palestinians were killed and nine wounded during an exchange of fire that lasted several hours.
  • Palestinian sources identified the three dead as belonging to Fatah’s al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, including the Commander Fathi Rizk, 30; Abdullah Abu Hamdan, 24; and Muhammad Zaytoun, 32.
  • During the counter-terror raid IDF troops also arrested three wanted men and confiscated weapons including three M-16 rifles, ammunition, military equipment and weapon parts.
  • Based on intelligence from the Shin Bet, the IDF also exposed an explosives manufacturing site containing, according to the IDF, “dozens of kilograms of explosives designated for carrying out attacks. The manufacturing site was detonated by the forces.”
  • In parallel in Jenin, the IDF arrested three men and also confiscated military equipment.
  • The Palestinian Authority Spokesperson Nabil Abu Rudeineh described the operation as “a veritable massacre” adding, it is “the continuation of the full-scale war that is being waged against the Palestinian people. The ongoing aggression in Nablus is a war crime that must be ended. The Israeli government bears responsibility for this dangerous and ongoing escalation.”
  • Yesterday there was a car ramming attack in the village of Huwara south of Nablus. An IDF soldier was wounded and taken to hospital in moderate condition. The driver of the car drove onto the sidewalk, accelerated, hit the soldier and fled the scene.  A second soldier opened fire, but apparently missed and the vehicle fled towards Nablus.

Context: These targeted IDF operations in Palestinian West Bank cities are once again carried out by IDF elite ground forces, as opposed to the air force strikes carried out in the Gaza Strip earlier this month.

  • For the IDF this is reinforcing their intelligence and operational capabilities to act against terror targets deep in Palestinian built up areas. It also attests to their ability to act precisely against armed targets whilst avoiding collateral damage as much as possible.
  • Prior to the car-ramming in Huwara, there had been two weeks of quiet in the West Bank, that also saw a decrease in planned attacks against Israelis.
  • However the car-ramming in Huwara is the fourth terror attack in the village in the last two months.
  • Ahead of the weekly Israeli cabinet meeting which was held in the Western Wall tunnels, Minister Ben Gvir visited the Temple Mount, for the second time this year.
  • Whilst his visit was criticised as provocative by some, others noted the fact that he delayed his visit, and did not go up last week on Jerusalem Day.
  • Meanwhile in the northern West Bank,  head of IDF Central Command Maj. Gen. Yehuda Fuchs signed an order allowing Israelis to re-enter the former settlement of Homesh.
  • Homesh was one of four West Bank settlements evacuated in 2005 during the disengagement (removal of all the settlements from Gaza Strip).
  • The military order follows the Knesset decision from two months ago that rescinded the application of the disengagement law in the West Bank.
  • The move will add to tension between Israel and the US with the move criticised by US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller as “deeply troubling.”

Looking ahead: The IDF will continue its manhunt for the driver of the car-ramming attack in Huwara yesterday.

  • Now that Fuchs has signed the order, Israeli civilians will be permitted to return to the demolished settlement and to stay there.
  • However, the future of the site and specifically the yeshiva, remains unclear, as it was built on private Palestinian land and therefore still needs to be relocated.

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