What’s happened: The remains of the deceased hostage Staff Sgt. Itay Chen, were returned to Israel last night.

• As in the past, the identification process was first completed by the National Institute of Forensic Medicine before his family was notified.
• Itay Chen was killed while defending  Nahal Oz on October 7 and his body was taken into Gaza by Hamas. His death was announced five months later.
• In parallel, the IDF has continued to operate in the Gaza Strip in the Israeli controlled areas south and eastwards of the Yellow Line. The IDF Spokesperson’s office confirmed that, “an underground tunnel route spanning hundreds of meters long and tens of meters deep was located in the Jabaliya area and dismantled…The route was used by Hamas terrorists for prolonged stays and for organising terrorist activities against IDF troops.”
• Moreover, IDF soldiers have also identified a compound containing launchers, rockets, and launch positions belonging to Hamas…in the centre of the Shejaiya area in northern Gaza.”

Context: Itay Chen is the last kidnapped IDF soldier from this war. On October 7 he fought with his tank crew that included Sgt. Tomer Leibovitz, Captain Daniel Peretz and Staff Sgt Matan Angrest. The only survivor of the crew was Angrest, who was taken as hostage, while the bodies of Peretz and Chen were also taken to Gaza.

• Another seven deceased hostages still remain in the Gaza Strip  761 days since October 7.
• Included in these seven still held in Gaza are the remains of Hadar Goldin, who was killed during Operation Protective Edge in the summer of 2014.
• Israel is satisfied that the return of bodies has continued, but is keen to speed up the process and retrieve all the remaining hostages. The latest  estimations are  that Hamas knows the location of three or four remaining bodies. Even if Hamas does not know the whereabouts, it may be that allowing Hamas to search (within Israeli controlled areas) will be faster than the IDF doing it, as Hamas may have more precise information.
• The extensive Hamas tunnel network remains an ongoing operational challenge for the IDF. It is estimated to be over 550km in length, (and possibly longer) and according to the most recent assessment from the Ministry of Defence, only 40 per cent of the tunnels mapped have so far been destroyed. Operationally the IDF is now prioritising destroying the tunnels in the area it currently controls.
• Hamas claims that around 200 armed terrorists are trapped below ground in a network of tunnels within the Israeli controlled area. Hamas has asked (via mediators) to grant them safe passage out of the area which poses a dilemma for the IDF. On  one hand, their presence endangers troops, but Israel is also unwilling to grant these fighters amnesty. Israel is currently demanding the return of all the deceased hostages before a decision is made on the trapped Hamas operatives.  
• Since the demarcation of the Yellow Line there have been several incidents of Gazans trying to cross it. According to IDF rules of engagement, they are only targeted if they pose an immediate threat, and otherwise are arrested.  
• As part of the preparation for the next phase, Israeli and US teams now share a joint war room as part of the CMCC (Civilian-Military Coordination Center), which is primarily aimed to coordinate civilian projects. The mechanism also allows them to jointly monitor ongoing potential Hamas preparations to carry out future attacks.  
• Humanitarian aid continues to enter Gaza, at an average rate of approximately 600 trucks a day including food, fuel and gas. In contrast to the US and Israeli backed GHF that delivered over 185 million meals directly to the Gazan civilian population during the five months it operated up until the ceasefire, the current aid is being facilitated by the UN and other international organisations which allows Hamas to control the distribution once inside the Strip.
• According to a new report by UN Watch hundreds of UNRWA workers maintained ties with Hamas, and other terror groups. The study presents 490 verified cases of agency employees who praised massacres, incited violation or were personally active in the terror organisations.

Looking ahead: As winter approaches, hundreds of thousands of Gazans remain without a permanent home. With the ceasefire holding, and increased aid entering the Strip it is now Hamas’ responsibility to disarm to allow the reconstruction efforts to begin.

• The UN Security Council is expected to vote in the next two weeks to endorse the US plan to establish an International Stabilisation Force. However it currently appears that many Arab countries that are supposed to contribute soldiers are unwilling to do so until Hamas is disarmed.

What’s happened: Additional bodies have been returned for burial in Israel over the weekend.

• On Sunday night Hamas returned three bodies to Israel. They were later identified and named as:
  • Colonel Asaf Hamami, commander of the Southern Brigade of the Gaza Division. He was killed during the battle for Kibbutz Nirim and was kidnapped along with his troops, Staff Sergeant Tomer Yaakov Ahimas and Sergeant Kiril Brodsky.
  • Staff Sergeant Oz Daniel, a fighter in the 77th Armoured Brigade. On October 7th, he fought with his tank crew and was abducted along with his three tank crewmates: Nimrod Cohen, who was released after more than two years in captivity; Shaked Dahan, whose body was returned for burial; and Captain Omer Neutra.
  • Captain Omer Maxim Neutra was born and raised in Long Island, New York, and volunteered to enlist as a lone soldier in the Armoured Corps, subsequently completing officer training and becoming a tank platoon commander. He was abducted with his tank crew (along with while Oz Daniel) while commanding the team.

• On Sunday funerals were held for the two hostage bodies returned on Friday. Amiram Cooper, who was 85 at the time of his murder by Hamas, was laid to rest at Kibbutz Nir Oz, where he was one of the founding members. Sahar Baruch was killed at the age of 25 during a failed IDF rescue mission. He was buried in his kibbutz, Beeri.
• In an interview to 60 Minutes, President Trump said that the ceasefire in Gaza was not fragile, and repeated his threat that Hamas would be obliterated if it failed to behave decently. Trump said, “You hear about Hamas, but Hamas could be taken out immediately if they don’t behave. They know that. If they don’t behave, they’re going to be taken out immediately. If I want them to disarm, I’ll get them to disarm very quickly. They’ll be eliminated. They know that.”
• In Lebanon over the weekend Israel targeted a commander of Hezbollah’s Radwan Force, regarded as one of the most significant elimination of the past year. The senior commander had been responsible for the delivery of weapons for restoring Hezbollah’s military infrastructure in southern Lebanon. Three additional Radwan fighters were also eliminated travelling in the same vehicle.
• Outgoing Military Advocate General Yifat Tomer-Yerushalmi was found Sunday night after a search along Tel Aviv’s Cliff Beach that led to her being arrested. Earlier in the day, her car had been found empty at the site. Her phone is still missing.
• She stepped down as the IDF lead military prosecutor last week following her admission that she had leaked classified video footage from the Sde Teiman Base in southern Israel where alleged abuse of incarcerated Hamas terrorists had taken place. She is also accused of making a false affidavit to the High Court and covering up the subsequent probe.

Context: The return of the remaining hostages remains Israel’s top priority. Whilst Hamas remain in breach of the agreement, all the other stages of the deal are on hold.

• There is concern that Hamas is deliberately dragging its feet in order to squeeze further concessions.
• The second Hamas breach of the agreement are the continued efforts to attack IDF soldiers in areas still controlled by Israel inside Gaza.
• Mediators have raised the option for Israel to agree to allow Hamas terrorists safe passage out of Gazan territory that is under Israeli control. Some Hamas fighters are trapped inside tunnels. Israel is said to be studying the issue.
• Israeli media reports suggest the US will call for the International Stabilisation Force to be deployed along the yellow line, in an area that will keep the IDF and Hamas apart. This presumably will require a further Israeli withdrawal / redeployment.  
• Discussions continue about the composition of the International Stabilisation Force (ISF). The US is expected to submit a motion to the UN Security Council that will serve as the ISF’s mandate. Whilst the mission will be led by US CENTCOM and include British planners the bulk of the troops deployed are expected to be Muslim or Arab. Israel has vetoed Turkish and Qatari involvement and the countries touted as potentially sending troops are UAE, Jordan, Morocco, Pakistan, and Indonesia. Their role will be to maintain law and order while wider members of the international community will help set up civilian infrastructure like schools and health clinics, as well reestablishing infrastructure for the supply of electricity, water and sewage management.  
• In parallel, there is ongoing concern over how Hamas has been able to reassert control over many areas west of the yellow line.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu related to the threat from Hamas on Sunday, noting, that while the organisation suffered crushing blows, it is trying to recover. He added that “there are still Hamas pockets in the areas under our control in Gaza” including in Rafah and Khan Yunis which Israel plans to eliminate.
• Netanyahu also clarified that while Israel reports to the US, “we do not ask for their permission…. We maintain the supreme security responsibility, and we will not relinquish it.”
• Netanyahu warned that while Hezbollah was taking hits, it is also “trying to arm itself and recover.” He added that Israel expects the Lebanese government “to do what it committed to do, namely to disarm Hezbollah,” while clarifying that Israel would exercise its right to self-defence as stipulated in the ceasefire conditions. “We will not allow Lebanon to become a renewed front against us and will act as necessary.”
• The latest strikes against Hezbollah coincide with the first anniversary of the ceasefire. Israel has detected that that Hezbollah has stepped up their efforts to rebuild their military capabilities. Since the November 2024 ceasefire Israel has eliminated almost 340 Hezbollah fighters.

Looking ahead: The remains of eight hostages are still being held by Hamas. It is hoped that sustained pressure can bring more of them home.

• Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine arrived in Israel and visited the Civil-Military Coordination Center in Kiryat Gat, from which the US is overseeing its Gaza operations. The Americans announced that they would take full responsibility for the humanitarian issue in Gaza as of November 7.
• Hezbollah had been given a deadline of the end of 2025 in which to disarm. The US are expected to place further pressure on the Lebanese Government to deploy state forces and challenge Hezbollah’s supremacy in the south.

What’s happened: Following Israeli air strikes throughout the night and this morning, the IDF this morning announced that the ceasefire in Gaza is now back in effect.

• An Israeli reservist was killed in combat yesterday in Rafah in the southern part of the Gaza Strip. Sgt. Yona Feldbaum, 37, leaves behind a wife and five children. He is the third soldier killed since the ceasefire agreement was implemented.
• The incident yesterday took place east of the Yellow Line, in an area designated as under Israeli control by the ceasefire agreement. An IDF unit was conducting an operation in the Al-Jenina neighbourhood of Rafah to dismantle a large underground tunnel route prepared by Hamas. A terrorist squad hiding in the tunnel emerged and fired an anti-tank missile at the engineering vehicle carrying Sgt. Feldbaum. A few minutes later, they fired at another armoured vehicle, but no one was injured.

• Hamas has claimed that the unit which carried out the attack in Rafah yesterday was not under its command and that it remains committed to the ceasefire.
• Even before the deadly incident, Israeli patience with Hamas ceasefire violations was running thin. A full week has passed since the last time Hamas handed over a deceased hostage, something it was committed to doing as soon as possible under the terms of the agreement.
• Israeli officials released drone footage yesterday of a staged exhumation of a hostage body that Hamas had performed for the benefit of the Red Cross. Hamas operatives brought the remains to a pit they had dug, hastily buried it, and the summoned the Red Cross for the ‘discovery’ of a gravesite. The remains that were handed over to Israel were not even of one of the remaining hostages, but rather additional remains of a body of an Israeli hostage whose body had already been retrieved and buried. In Israel this was seen as further evidence of Hamas trying to engineer an image of difficulty in locating the remaining deceased bodies. Of 13 remaining deceased bodies, Israel believes Hamas can easily locate and hand over 10, despite the terror organisations protestations to the contrary.
• Following the deadly incident in Rafah and the ongoing impasse over the release of the remains of Israeli hostages, the IDF launched an air offensive yesterday evening, striking Hamas targets throughout the Gaza Strip. Hamas health authorities reported 60 Gazans killed in the new Israeli airstrikes.  According to the IDF they struck “over 30 terrorists holding command positions.” 

Context: The Israeli government continues to closely coordinate its decisions and actions with the Trump administration.

• US officials responded to yesterday’s developments with a double message, emphasising that the ceasefire was still in place while supporting Israel’s retaliatory actions.
• President Trump appeared to endorse Israel’s operation yesterday. “They killed an Israeli soldier, so the Israelis hit back, and they should hit back,” he told reporters yesterday aboard Air Force One. “Hamas is a very small part of peace in the Middle East and if they’re good, they’re going to be happy, and if they are not good they’re going to be terminated. Their lives will be terminated. And they understand that.” Vice President JD Vance told reporters yesterday that despite the fighting, he believed the ceasefire would hold.
• Israel is continuing to explore further options if Hamas remains in breach of the agreement by failing to return all the bodies of the remaining 13 hostages. One option is to expand the zone currently under its control.  Right now Israel holds 53% of the Strip’s territory, with a ‘yellow line’ delineating the temporary boundary between Israeli-held territory and Hamas-run territory. Further stages of the ceasefire – after all hostages are released – are supposed to bring about further Israeli territorial withdrawals as well as an International Stabilisation Force. But if the ceasefire does not advance, it is likely that Israel will stay in its current deployment, with a large buffer zone between the Israeli border communities attacked on October 7 and a shrunken Hamas-run Gaza Strip.
• In the meantime, the IDF continues to turn its attention to the northern border, where a tense ceasefire has held for exactly eleven months, punctuated with frequent Israeli enforcement operations targeting Hezbollah weapons production and smuggling. Both Israel and the US are waiting to see if the Lebanese Armed Forces can successfully disarm Hezbollah by the end of 2025.
• According to Israel media, the current assessment is that Hezbollah has 10,000 rockets in its arsenal, as opposed to the 120,000 it was estimated to possess before it began launching attacks on Israel on October 8, 2023. Hezbollah has not thus far responded to Israeli strikes since the ceasefire, nor did Hezbollah launch any rockets at Israel during the Twelve Day War with Iran. But Israel remains on the alert for a Hezbollah attack of some kind, especially as the organisation’s domestic status becomes increasingly desperate.
• The Houthis in Yemen have not launched any attacks on Israel since the Gaza ceasefire went into effect earlier this month, but Israel holds no illusions that their war against the Jewish state has been definitively concluded.

Looking ahead: With the renewal of the ceasefire this morning there is hope that more hostage bodies will be returned. Despite the air strikes last night Hamas announced they have recovered two more bodies that could be returned to Israel in the next 24 hours.  

What’s happened: Hamas fighters killed two IDF soldiers on Sunday morning and wounded several others in an attack in the Rafah area, which is under IDF control according to the ceasefire agreement.

• The IDF responded with artillery and air strikes across the Gaza Strip, including against a six-kilometre-long tunnel in the Khan Yunis area. According to Palestinian sources, as many as 45 people, including a Nukhba Force commander, were killed.
• By Sunday evening the IDF announced that the retaliatory strikes had concluded and that the IDF “had begun the renewed enforcement of the ceasefire.”
• The two soldiers killed were Maj. Yaniv Kula, 26, and Staff Sgt. Itay Yavetz, 21, both from Nahal Brigade and both from Modiin-Maccabim-Reut in central Israel.
• The incident in Rafah began when a Hamas cell emerged from a tunnel shaft in an area under IDF control. They fired a rocket-propelled grenade and light weapons at two IDF bulldozers and at the rescue forces.
• Following the incident IDF Chief of Staff Zamir said, “We are ready and alert for any scenario. This blatant violation of the agreement by Hamas will be met and is being met at this time with a strong and powerful response of ours, and we will continue to vigilantly protect the State of Israel’s security interests.”

Context: The Hamas attack was viewed in Israel as a double offence – both breaking the ceasefire and violating the Yellow Line endorsed by the US and the ceasefire signatories.      

• Israel remains closely coordinated with the US administration, informing them in advance of their plan to retaliate, reportedly without going into detail. Notably the IDF’s response did not involve a ground incursion, but consisted of a broad-scale artillery and aerial strikes.
• The tunnel struck was significant and had previously been avoided due to the presence of hostages in the vicinity (which is now no longer an issue.)
• According to Palestinian sources, one of the targets was Yahya Al-Mabhouh along with 5 other Nukhba operatives. He was the commander of the Nukhba company of the East Jabalia battalion in northern Gaza and commanded the Nukhba forces’ raid on Mefalsim on October 7.
• It is unclear whether the Hamas leadership ordered Sunday’s attack, or whether the cell found itself ‘trapped’ on the Israeli side of the ceasefire line. Other speculation suggests Iran remains in contact with Hamas field commanders and encouraged the attack in an effort to torpedo the ceasefire agreement. Either way Israel stays vigilant over the threat of future attacks.      
• Israel has insisted that its response must make clear to Hamas that it no longer resembles its pre-October 7 approach to rocket fire (which often targeted Hamas weapons facilities but not personnel) and that it remains prepared at all times to resume intense fighting.
• There is some hope that this violation was an isolated incident, but it underscores the fragility of the ceasefire and the risks involved. It also highlights Israeli concerns that two of the signatories to the agreement Qatar and Turkey have a vested interest in the perpetuation of Hamas rule.        
• Although the most serious incident since the ceasefire was declared, it was not an isolated incident. There have been several accounts of Hamas attacks against IDF soldiers manning outposts along the yellow line.
• Yesterday’s attack is being perceived as a warning. If Israel fails to establish tough and clear rules of engagement the situation could further deteriorate. Although substantially downgraded, the attack is another reminder that Hamas still has thousands of fighters and a large number of weapons, reinforcing the need to move to the next phase and disarm them.
• In parallel, Israel is working along the US, Egypt and the other mediators to secure the release of the remaining 16 hostage bodies still in Gaza. Over the weekend two more bodies were returned.
  • Ronen Engel was killed on October 7, 2023, when he went out to defend his family from terrorists and his body was abducted from his home in Kibbutz Nir Oz. Ronen was 54 at his death, which was declared on December 1, 2023. He is survived by his wife, Karina, and three children, two of whom, Mika and Yuval, were also abducted together with Karina and returned in November 2023.
  • A Thai citizen, Suntaya Oukarsri was murdered on October 7, 2023, from the orchards of Kibbutz Be’eri and his body taken to Gaza. He was 30 years old at the time of his death which was determined in May 2024.
• Seven former hostages were discharged yesterday from hospital.

Looking ahead: Following the attack, Israel will today renew the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza, but not open the Rafah border crossing.

• Vice President JD Vance is expected to visit Israel this week, joining envoys Witkoff and Kushner. High on the agenda will be how to secure the ceasefire and move on to the next phase of the Trump plan.    
• The Knesset formally reconvenes for the start of winter session later today.