What’s happened: Hamas response causes Israel and American teams to leave Doha negotiations.

• Hamas is understood to have maintained a series of maximalist demands.
• An initial Hamas response earlier this week had been deemed so unreasonable that Qatari and Egyptian mediators refused to share them with the resident Israeli delegation. They reportedly included: the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation ceasing all aid distribution, a significantly narrower buffer zone between the Gaza and Israel border, the release of higher numbers of terrorists than had previously been expected, and Gazans being able to return to the Strip via the Rafah crossing.
• The ostensibly ‘softened’ Hamas response demanded – for the first time – the release of commandos from Hamas’s Nukhba force who participated in the 7th October 2023 attacks on southern Israel.
• The new Hamas demands prompted the US and Israeli delegations to withdraw from Doha and return home. Special Envoy Witkoff branded Hamas as “selfish” and suggested that the group “does not appear to be coordinated or acting in good faith”, specifically citing their “lack of desire to reach a ceasefire in Gaza” as a reason to recall the US negotiating delegation.
• Israeli officials have denied suggestions that this phase of negotiations has collapsed, and stated that while progress has been made gaps must still be closed before reaching the closing stage ahead of a potential deal.
• In related news, French President, Emmanuel Macron, has announced that France will recognise Palestinian statehood in September at the UN’s General Assembly making it the first G7 country to do so.
• In a post shared on X, Macron said “The urgent need today is for the war in Gaza to end and for the civilian population to be rescued. Peace is possible. We need an immediate ceasefire, the release of all hostages, and massive humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza.”
• It follows a symbolic, non-binding Knesset resolution that recognised the West Bank is “an inseparable part of the Land of Israel.
• While praised by Arab leaders, the US and Israel have condemned Macron’s announcement. Secretary of State Rubio branded it as “reckless”, while Prime Minister Netanyahu wrote that “A Palestinian state in these conditions would be a launch pad to annihilate Israel – not to live in peace beside it. Let’s be clear: the Palestinians do not seek a state alongside Israel; they seek a state instead of Israel.”
• Hamas praised France’s decision, referring to it as a “positive step in the right direction”.
• Prime Minister Starmer has again come under pressure to immediately recognise Palestinian statehood, this time following a report to that effect published by the Foreign Affairs Select Committee.
• All six voting Labour MPs who sat on the committee endorsed the relevant sections of the record along with two Liberal Democrats. The two Conservative members, Aphra Brandreth and Sir John Whittingdale, took a slightly different approach arguing that the UK should only back the move as part of a wider two-state solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict.
• Yesterday, Shabana Mahmood, the British Justice Secretary said that recognition would bring “multiple benefits” and “send a strong message to the Israeli government”. It is understood that several Cabinet ministers are now urging the Prime Minister to action and immediately recognise Palestinian statehood amongst increasing anger against Israel, especially over Gaza’s humanitarian situation. 
• Also yesterday, Starmer issued an unusually strong statement condemning the “unspeakable and indefensible” humanitarian conditions in Gaza which he branded as a “catastrophe” that had “reached new depths”.

Context: Hamas’ demands in Doha followed optimism of a breakthrough and an Israeli compromise on withdrawing troops from the Morag Corridor bisecting Rafah and Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip.

• Israel believes that the diplomatic international pressure on Israel – particularly over the humanitarian situation in Gaza – makes Hamas less likely to agree to a ceasefire arrangement.
• Opposition MK Benny Gantz pointed out that “International pressure on Israel, particularly by distorted claims of purposeful starvation or ‘genocide,’ is perceived, intentionally orchestrated, and peddled by Hamas as negotiation leverage. It significantly hampers the prospects of a ceasefire deal that would bring the hostages home & restore stability to Gaza. The world must stand united in demanding maximum pressure on the terrorists that initiated this war on Oct. 7. Misplaced pressure on Israel rather than Hamas only serves to embolden the group, and undermine efforts to end the conflict in Gaza.”
• Israel has blamed the UN for failing to cooperate effectively on aid provision within the Strip, and maintains that Hamas is confecting and exacerbating the humanitarian crisis to leverage famine claims during ceasefire negotiations.
• While the Gaza Humanitarian Fund has distributed an excess of 80 million meals since May, its existence and operations directly contradict Hamas’s interests, namely allowing starvation to take root and further delegitimising Israel. Israel claims that Hamas has continuously attacked GHF aid distribution centres and workers, yesterday launching a rocket at one of its sites which fell short in the Morag Corridor in the southern Gaza Strip.
• Hamas’s positive response to Macron’s announcement underscores the risks of recognising Palestinian statehood in a manner which effectively rewards Hamas and diminishes its incentives for agreeing to a ceasefire and releasing Israeli hostages.
• Unilateral recognition is seen by Israel as undercutting the prospect of future direct negotiations. It front loads the benefits and removes incentives for the Palestinians to one day return to the diplomatic track. It rewards their intransigence, raising expectations but changes nothing on the ground.

Looking ahead: PM Starmer is due to hold an “emergency call” on Gaza with France and Germany later today where they “will discuss what we can do urgently to stop the killing and get people the food they desperately need while pulling together all the steps necessary to build a lasting peace”.

• Special Envoy Witkoff, Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Dermer, and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani are also expected to meet in Sardinia to discuss ways to reach a ceasefire and hostage deal with Hamas, despite last night’s setbacks.
• Yesterday, Israeli and Syrian ministers also met for the first time since 2000 in Paris with American mediation from Special Envoy and Ambassador to Turkey, Tom Barrack. These talks are understood to have focused on de-escalating tensions in southern Syria.

What’s happened: Media reports indicate that a ceasefire deal is close to completion. White House Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff plans to travel to Rome and meet senior Qatari and Israeli officials on Thursday. If more progress is made, Witkoff will continue on to Doha towards the end of the week.

• Israeli officials expect Hamas to respond to the latest proposal sometime today.
• Amidst ongoing reports of hunger in Gaza, governments and aid agencies took an increasingly harsh tone against Israel yesterday. The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, spoke with Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar by phone yesterday, and then posted on social media that “all options remain on the table if Israel doesn’t deliver on its pledges.” This followed reports from the Hamas-controlled Healthy Ministry of at least 20 deaths from malnutrition. 
• While aid organisations condemned Israel for “blocking” aid, Israeli officials released video of 950 trucks of aid that Israel had let cross into Gaza at Kerem Shalom and Zikim for distribution by aid agencies (not the GHF) which had not been collected. “These trucks are just waiting there,” according to the official Israeli update, which again castigated the aid agencies for failing to distribute aid, for allowing aid to be siphoned off for the benefit of Hamas, and for lying about Israeli actions.
• Israeli military officials have said that, “There are diseases in the Gaza Strip, including among children, but not in the context of malnutrition. There may be problems with food accessibility, and we need to expand the aid operations to solve them.” According to the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, (COGAT), an average of 71 trucks transporting fuel, food, baby formula and medical equipment enter the Gaza Strip daily. Some 2,500 tons of baby formula have been delivered in the past number of weeks, and 1.5 million food packages have been distributed to the Gazan public. IDF officials said, “Roughly 950 trucks are waiting to enter at the crossings, but the international organizations have delayed the  process and have contributed to the problem of food security in Gaza. Hamas has been sowing chaos around the aid distribution centers, firing in the area and attacking aid distribution truck drivers.”
• Greece was the site of two incidents involving Israeli tourists and anti-Israel activists. On the Greek island of Syros an Israeli cruise ship was prevented from docking by a pro-Palestinian demonstration. And last night in Rhodes, a group of Israeli tourists were violently attacked by an anti-Israel mob.
• A report in the New York Times suggests that a series of mysterious fires and explosions at strategic sites in Iran over the last two weeks are coordinated acts of sabotage, with both Iranian officials and some European diplomats in Iran quoted anonymously as believing Israel is responsible. Publicly, the Iranians have downplayed the incidents, referring to one as “controlled burning of weeds” and to others as “gas leaks.”
• The Islamic Jihad terrorist group claimed yesterday that it had lost contact with the captors of Israeli hostage Rom Braslavski. This followed an incursion of Israeli ground forces into Deir el-Balah, a town in central Gaza largely untouched by Israeli military action that is believed to be where most of the living hostages are being held.

Context: The deal currently on the table calls for eight living hostages to be released on the first day of the ceasefire and two more on the fiftieth day. Eighteen bodies of deceased hostages are to be releaesed in three tranches over the sixty days of the ceasefire. On the tenth day, a full medical accounting of all living hostages is to be passed over to the Israelis.

• According to a report this morning in Ynet, remaining gaps between the sides are minor. For example, Israel proposed withdrawing up to 1000 to 1200 metres from the Philadelphi Corridor, while Hamas demands the withdrawal be to 800 metres; and the number of terrorists with life sentences to be released by Israel stands at 100 in the Israeli proposal and 150 in the Hamas one.
• Witkoff has previously emphasised that he will only travel to Doha if negotiations are close to coming to fruition.
• Since May, Israel has allowed aid into Gaza by two means: through the US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, mostly in the southern Gaza Strip, and through the UN-backed aid agencies that Israel has criticised for collaborating with Hamas, mostly in the north of the Strip. Official Hamas statistics report at least 1000 Palestinians killed in violence near aid distribution sites in this period, with 288 near the UN-backed facilities and 766 near GHF facilities. These numbers have not been independently verified.

Looking ahead: The Knesset will begin its summer recess this week which should lighten the pressure on the governing coalition.

• Netanyahu currently leads a minority Government following the departure of two ultra-orthodox parties from his government in the last two weeks.

War with Hamas: For the first time since the war began, on Sunday the IDF called on residents of southern Deir al-Balah to evacuate and move south to Al-Mawasi. 

• Deir al-Balah, located in central Gaza, is one of the only areas in which the IDF has not operated at any stage of the war, primarily due to the assessment that hostages were being held there.
• In response to the move, the Hostage and Missing Families Forum issued a statement saying, “The hostages’ families were filled with dread and were rattled by reports that the IDF intends to operate in areas in central Gaza in which it has not yet operated. Can anyone promise us that that decision won’t cost the price of the loss of our loved ones? We expect the prime minister, the defence minister and top IDF officials to urgently explain to the citizens of Israel and the families what the combat plan is and how exactly it protects the hostages who are still in Gaza.”
• The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation announced on Sunday that an additional two million meals were delivered yesterday. According to GHF Interim Executive Director, John Acree, “We’ve now delivered over 82 million meals in Gaza, a reflection of our team’s extraordinary commitment under tremendous pressure. But no milestone will ever be enough until every family in Gaza has reliable access to food. That’s why we continue to adapt our approach, improve communication about site openings, and prioritise safety at every distribution for civilians and our staff and partners. While all other aid groups have stopped delivering food reliably into Gaza, we continue to feed people. I once again call on the UN to work with us to deliver their stockpiles of aid sitting inside Gaza to those in need. We will do all we can to support their efforts.” 
• In parallel, there is a degree of optimism in negotiations in Doha and Israel expects Hamas to respond positively to the new proposal for the IDF’s redeployment in the Gaza Strip. 
• The ongoing talks are currently focused on reaching an agreement over the ratio of Palestinian prisoners to be released in exchange for the hostages.  
• In an interview on CNN US Envoy for Hostages Adam Boehler said he was “more optimistic” than he had been, and added that “there’s a new sense of ability to get something done.” Boehler added, “I really want to see Hamas take action. And if they don’t, I will tell you something, Israel’s going to have to take some kinetic action.”

Looking ahead: Several Israeli media outlets are reporting that there could be a breakthrough in the hostage talks in the next few days. 

• Everyone is still waiting for news that US Special Envoy Witkoff intends to travel to Doha, which should indicate an agreement is to be finalised. Similarly Israel is ready to send a senior delegation to Doha to expedite the talks.
• The hostage families reject a partial deal, and insist on securing the release of all the hostages dead and alive. Nevertheless the current deal seems focused on the release of ten living hostages and the remains of 18 deceased hostages in exchange for a ceasefire and the release of Palestinian prisoners.

What’s happened: In Doha, persistent gaps in the negotiations for a deal on hostages and a ceasefire appear to have closed slightly yesterday, with Israel agreeing to a much smaller territorial presence in Gaza during the ceasefire than what it had been demanding until now.

• The new Israeli proposal for a withdrawal during the ceasefire left Israel with a much smaller perimeter inside the Strip than previous proposals. This proposal apparently came following pressure on the Israeli delegation from US envoy Steve Witkoff. Multiple media reports indicate that Hamas accepted the new Israeli map.
• Regarding the negotiations, President Trump said yesterday, “We have some good news on Gaza and good news on a couple of things that we’re working on at a very high level.” Final details remain to be ironed out on the exact numbers of prisoners to be released in exchange for the Israeli hostages, as well as on the provisions of aid during the ceasefire. A senior Israeli official was quoted as saying that a deal now was “more likely than not.”
• The apparent breakthrough in hostage negotiations came after Israel submitted a new proposed map of its redeployment in a ceasefire. 
• In the updated map, Israel had dropped its demand to hold on to the so-called Morag Corridor. The importance of the Morag Corridor was in that it would leave the whole Rafah area in IDF hands. This was essential to any Israeli plan for a “humanitarian city” in Rafah.
• This plan, touted by Defence Minister Katz, was vociferously opposed internationally, and in recent days senior officials in Israel both inside the army and elsewhere raised doubts about its legality and feasibility. If it is the case that the plan has been dropped — no such announcement has been made — than an insistence on the Morag Corridor made no sense. And indeed, Israel has apparently dropped this insistence.
• This was not the only reported compromise to emerge from Doha. According to a report on Channel 12 News, Hamas will make do with an assurance from the Trump administration that he will do everything in his power to end the war, rather than a guarantee from Israel that the 60-day ceasefire will conclude the war entirely.

Context: The ultra-Orthodox Shas party announced that its ministers would be resigning from the Government over the Government’s failure to conclude legislation on draft exemptions for the Haredi public.

• Earlier this week, the other ultra-Orthodox party in the Knesset, United Torah Judaism, also quit the Government. UTJ, however, left the coalition entirely, including committee chairs in Parliament, while Shas is only withdrawing its ministers from Government.
• Neither move on its own can force early elections, but both are indication that the coalition in power since the last election in November 2022 may not make it all the way to the next scheduled election in October 2026. The Knesset will go into recess on July 27 and is unlikely to dissolve itself or move on early elections beforehand. It will reconvene on October 19.

What’s happened: Israel’s small war cabinet once more convened on Sunday night in response to pressure from the mediators to prevent the collapse of the talks in Doha. 

• The meeting addressed Hamas’s demand for an Israeli withdrawal from southern Gaza and the plan to build a humanitarian compound in Rafah. 
• The key issue remains the extent of the IDF withdrawal, specifically whether they can retain the Morag Corridor.
• During the meeting, the IDF presented an anticipated timetable for the construction of the “humanitarian city” in Rafah, to which Israel wants to move 600,000 residents of Gaza. The IDF estimates that the construction will take several months at least, and possibly up to a year. The prime minister reportedly responded that this timeframe was  not good enough and needed to be significantly shortened. 
• Over the weekend, the IDF said that the Israeli Air Force struck more than 150 targets throughout the Gaza Strip, “including terrorists, booby-trapped structures, weapons storage facilities, anti-tank missile and sniping posts and additional terrorist infrastructure sites.”
• In the northern Gaza Strip, IDF troops continue to operate in the area of Beit Hanoun, eliminating terrorists and dismantling terrorist infrastructure sites, weapons, and underground infrastructure. 
• Based on intelligence, over the last two weeks the IDF have continued to target  Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) commanders. The IDF released  names of several commanders, including those involved in weapons production, that were eliminated.     
• Also on Sunday, a strike near a water distribution point reportedly killed ten people including several children. The IDF referred to the accident as a “technical malfunction.” The IDF admitted it had erred while targeting an operative from the PIJ.

Context: The weekend did not bring with it the long-awaited breakthrough in hostage deal negotiations in Doha. 

• While talks have not (yet) collapsed, a hope remains that a deal can be reached, the optimism of last week appears to be dissipating.
• Israel argues that Hamas has rejected the latest Qatari offer, whilst Arab sources blame the deadlock on Israel’s demand that the IDF remain in large parts of the Gaza Strip even during the ceasefire. 
• As a result Trump’s envoy Witkoff has not yet travelled to Qatar.
• Within the Israeli leadership, the military is signalling that the risks inherent in the agreement can be taken in order to make progress on getting the hostages released.
• More broadly, the security establishment believes the war in its current form has run its course, whist Netanyahu’s position suggests that he intends to leave the option open to renew the fighting.   
• Proponents of the plan for the “humanitarian city” claim its establishment would be a first chance for a non-Hamas entity to take control of the area. The plan has been heavily criticised by former Prime Minister Olmert, who said it would be a “concentration camp” and that forced movement of the population would constitute ethnic cleansing. 
• Meanwhile, Ministers Ben Gvir and Smotrich demanded guarantees from the prime minister that the fighting would be resumed after the first stage of the deal. Netanyahu said that any promise of the kind would derail the negotiations. 
• Similar to earlier ceasefires, Netanyahu has a majority in the cabinet and in the security cabinet to approve the agreement when and if it is reached, but the scope of the deal that will be presented to the ministers remains unclear.  
• The working assumption is that Smotrich and Ben Gvir might quit the government over a deal, but they would not bring it down by voting in favour of a motion to dissolve the Knesset.  
• The continued air strikes in Bet Hanoun highlight the complexity of the ongoing war, where five soldiers were killed last week in an area held by the IDF since November 2023 and which is located fewer than 2.5 km from the town of Sderot. Despite the IDF presence above ground, and the evacuation of the civilian population last year, IDF intelligence estimates that 60-80 fighters remain in the underground tunnels network.      
• Some analysts have interpreted the intensity of these recent strikes as signalling that Operation Gideon’s Chariots is nearing to an end. It was initially designed to pressure Hamas  to bring about a hostage release. This pressure included degrading Hamas’s military capabilities, targeting its leaders, taking control of more territory and by undermining Hamas’s governance while agitating Gaza’s citizens against it. 

Looking ahead: On Sunday night, President Trump repeated that talks about Gaza are ongoing and expressed his hope that the issue would be concluded in the coming week.

• Israel’s Foreign Minister Saar is visiting Brussels today and meeting with various representatives of the European Union. In parallel, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani is also expected to be in Brussels. 
• On Tuesday the EU is due to discuss a proposal to remove Israel from the EU-Israel Association Agreement, however for this to pass the vote must be unanimous, which is highly unlikely. Saar is expected to highlight the increased supply of aid and fuel to counter allegations of starvation in Gaza.   
• A ministerial committee will convene on Monday afternoon to consider the removal of Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara. 
• In parallel, the trial of Prime Minister Netanyahu has resumed. The State Attorney’s Office representatives will continue today their cross-examination and will focus on Case 1,000 involving gifts received by the Netanyahu family.

What’s happened: Israel faces threats across multiple fronts with another soldier killed in Gaza, another Houthi missile intercepted, and the stabbing of a soldier in the West Bank, as well as continued efforts to reach a hostage deal.

• First Sgt. (res) Avraham Azulai, a 25-year-old resident of Yitzhar, was killed in action yesterday in the Gaza Strip. He served in the Southern Command’s engineering unit and was killed during an attempted abduction in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip. An initial investigation found that terrorists emerged from a tunnel shaft and attacked IDF troops who were operating in the sector. They tried to abduct Azulai, who was operating a bulldozer. He fought with them and they fatally shot him. Security forces on the scene opened fire on the Hamas operatives, hit some of them and thwarted the attempted abduction. 
• A Houthi missile was intercepted early Thursday morning with air raid sirens triggered in the area of Jerusalem, parts of the south, the greater Tel Aviv area and coastal area. No one was injured.
• A soldier was stabbed during an operation in the Jenin area. The rest of the troops opened fire and eliminated the assailant. The moderately injured soldier was sent to a hospital.

Context: Despite some degree of optimism, there has not yet been a breakthrough in the hostage talks. The latest optimism is based on reports that the remaining gaps are being closed.

• The major outstanding issue is understood to be the deployment of IDF troops specifically relating to the Morag Corridor. Officials on the negotiating team told Channel 13 News that Israel would agree to alter its troop deployment on the Morag Corridor and had made “substantial progress on the way to a deal.”
• The Morag Corridor is a 12km paved road – in some places 1.5km wide – which was only established three months ago and separates the Rafah border area from the city of Khan Yunis. The government sees the corridor’s importance as allowing for the establishment of a “humanitarian city” for refugees that would be beyond the jurisdiction of Hamas. For Hamas it is essential to regain full control over southern Gaza.
• One option for resolving the disagreement could include a redeployment that is larger than previously offered, but which would be carried out gradually, dependent on progress in the negotiations to end the war. 
• On another issue, Israel has reportedly agreed in principle that Qatar among other states would start to provide resources and funds to rebuild the Gaza Strip, possibly even during the ceasefire. Hamas has demanded this as a part of the guarantees that the intention to end the war is serious.
• Israel hopes that other Arab states will be involved in order to dilute Qatar’s influence. However, it is unlikely that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states will invest before Israel declares the war over.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu is still in Washington, whilst also engaged in maintaining his government. He is facing pressure from the right wing to oppose the proposed redeployments and calls to end the war. The ultra-Orthodox coalition partners meanwhile have threatened to leave the government over a bill for ultra-Orthodox males to serve in the military which includes personal sanctions against those who refuse. 

Looking ahead: Netanyahu might meet with Trump for a third time before his scheduled departure from Washington on Thursday evening. 

• President Trump has repeated that he is optimistic there will be a deal “this week or next.”