The West Bank and Settlements

Updated May 16, 2025

West Bank shooting kills heavily pregnant woman

What’s happened: A pregnant Israeli woman on her way to the hospital to deliver her baby was shot dead in a drive by terrorist attack outside Bruchin, a settlement in the northern West Bank located between Ariel and Petach Tikvah. Her husband was also wounded in the attack.

Tzeela Gez, a 30-year-old mother of three, was rushed to the hospital in critical condition. Doctors were able to deliver her fourth child in an emergency C-section. She died of her wounds this morning.
Following the attack the IDF launched an intensive manhunt for the perpetrators of the attack. This morning there are reports of heavy exchanges of gunfire in the Palestinian village of Tamoun, north east of Nablus.
Meital Ben Yosef, chairwoman of the Bruchin settlement, where Tzeela Gez lived until her murder, mourned her loss. “Our hearts are broken,” she said this morning. “The entire community of Bruchin is grieving and pained over the murder of our friend Tzeela in this horrific terror attack. We send our heartfelt condolences to the Gez family and pray for a full recovery for the father of the family. Once again, we are forced to pay a blood price simply for being Jews living in our land. But our brothers’ blood will not be forfeit—we will continue to build, to cling to the land and to increase light and life here in Bruchin and throughout the land.”
Reactions to the murder of a pregnant woman on her way to give birth have been, predictably, heated. Yossi Dagan, chairman of a regional council of West Bank settlements called for the IDF to destroy the villages where the terrorist had come from. “The IDF needs to go in, just like it goes into Deir al-Balah, just like it goes into Khan Younis. We need to flatten that area there.” Deir al-Balah and Khan Younis are cities in Gaza that have been scenes of destructive battles since the October 7 war began in 2023. Regarding the villages dotting the road where the shooting attack happened, Dagan said, “this area should be like Jabalya,” referencing another part of the Gaza Strip which has been the scene of intense fighting and destruction.
President Herzog released a statement referring to the murder as, “a spine-chilling, horrific act of terror that shakes us to the core. At the very moment life was about to begin, life was taken in the most brutal way.”

Context: Whilst Israel remains engaged in fighting on several fronts, this attack is a brutal reminder of the terror threat emanating from the West Bank.

On January 21^st, two days into the Gaza ceasefire, the IDF launched Operation Iron Wall in the West Bank, targeting terrorists in the northern West Bank, with a particular focus on Jenin and Tulkarem cities. This operation, and a similar but smaller one in 2024, constitute the most significant incursions of Israeli forces into Palestinian-controlled areas of the West Bank since the large operations 2002-2003 which successfully defeated the Second Intifada and brought to an end the campaign of Palestinian suicide bombings of the 1990s and early 2000s.
According to the Shin Bet, since October 7^th 2023, 64 Israelis have been killed in terror attacks emanating from the West Bank.
According to Palestinian sources, 102 Palestinian have been killed in the operation, over 80 of whom Israel assesses to be actively involved in terror activity. More than 6,000 Palestinians have been arrested in the West Bank over that same period.
Violence in the West Bank has been mostly contained since the October 7th massacre. No terror attack, no military operation, and no act of settler violence has (as of yet) been the spark that sent both sides spiralling into the kind of uncontrolled violence remembered by all from the Second Intifada years of the early 2000’s.
The ongoing security cooperation between the IDF and the Palestinian Authority (PA) has been a crucial part of that. At the same time, the release of so many Hamas prisoners back into the West Bank as part of the ceasefire deal which freed Israeli hostages in Gaza earlier this year has strengthened the hand of the jihadist groups who are interested in raising the temperature in the West Bank, if only to draw away some Israeli forces from the fighting in Gaza.
The murder of a pregnant woman is likely to provoke particularly strong emotional reactions, and it comes at particularly combustible time. Today, May 15th, is the day Palestinians mark the anniversary of the Nakba, the Arabic word for catastrophe which is conventionally used to describe Israel’s creation and the Arab defeat in the 1948 war.
The will be heightened concern over the prospect of revenge attacks by settlers that sometimes take the form of arson. Over Friday and Saturday, Israel is forecasted to experience a short but extreme bout of hot and dry weather, making the danger even greater than it would already be.
In parallel, President Trump continues his diplomatic push in the Gulf region. Bilateral agreements worth hundreds of billions of dollars have already been announced, and yesterday he met with Ahmed al-Sharaa, the leader of Syria. Breakthroughs on three multilateral efforts — a hostage and ceasefire deal on Gaza, a nuclear deal with Iran, and a regional normalisation deal with Saudi Arabia — continue to be hinted at by Trump’s entourage, though there is no public agreement on any of them yet.

Hostage negotiations: Prime Minister Netanyahu met with the president’s envoy Witkoff again yesterday, before Witkoff flew to Qatar to join President Trump.

According to an Egyptian report Witkoff met with a delegation of senior Hamas officials, including Muhammad Darwish, Khalil al-Hayya and Zaher Jabarin last night. If true, this would make Witkoff the most senior US official to have ever directly engaged with Hamas officials. This follows Adam Boehler, the US envoy for Hostage Response who also met Hamas leaders earlier this year.
Although it is not confirmed if Mohammad Sinwar was eliminated in an Israeli air strike on Tuesday, the attack could delay any immediate progress.
The potential deal being presented is based on the Witkoff proposal that has been circulating for over a month and appears to have the buy in from the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
The broad outline appears to be:
- Around half of the hostages are to be released within a few days and negotiations for the full end of the war will begin.
- During the negotiations, Hamas will release all of the Israeli hostages, including the bodies of those killed. In return, Israel will release Palestinian terrorists in keeping with the prisoners-for-hostages ratio that has been used to till now.
- The delivery of Humanitarian Aid to the civilian population in the Gaza Strip will be resumed, according to the US plan.
- Following the return of all the hostages, Israel will end its military operations.
- At this point Hamas should surrender its weapons, and senior military commanders will be exiled from the Strip. Reconstruction will begin (and along with Trump’s plans) Gazans will be given the opportunity to leave, with priority given the wounded and the ill.
- The reconstruction and management of Gaza will be led by an Arab regional coalition, alongside the US and European partners.
- Only once the Palestinian Authority has undergone substantive structural reforms will it be brought into the managing coalition.
- As an incentive, Saudi Arabia as well as other countries, possibly including Syria and Lebanon could normalise relations with Israel. Implementation of this deal might pave the way for a Nobel Peace Prize for Trump.

April 30, 2025

UK backs Palestinian Authority with MoU

What’s happened: In London, the UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy and the Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Strategic Cooperation.

The document outlines in very general terms the commitments of the two governments to cooperate on a range of issues, including climate change, gender, culture, and education.
It commits both sides to diplomatic solutions in line with UN Security Council resolutions without referencing any specific ones.
In the memorandum, the UK “reiterates the centrality of the Palestinian Authority as the only legitimate governing entity in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including in Gaza,” obliquely rejecting the status quo since 2007 of a separate Hamas-led government in Gaza.
The document makes repeated references to Palestinian statehood as a goal and to the 1967 lines as the basis for a future international border, and includes East Jerusalem as part of the West Bank.
The Memorandum includes a Palestinian commitment to hold Presidential and Parliamentary elections “within the shortest feasible timeframe,” and stipulates that such elections must include the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip, implicitly extending the feasible timeframe well into the distant future. No such election has been held in two decades. The last one was called in 2021, but it was cancelled by the Palestinian Authority (PA) itself. Mahmoud Abbas has ruled as President of the PA since the last elections in 2005, extending his mandate well beyond his original four-year term.
While the Palestinian Authority’s Prime Minister was in London, the newly appointed Vice President of the PLO, Hussein Al-Sheikh, travelled to Riyadh to meet top Saudi officials to discuss what is widely believed to be an upcoming American diplomatic initiative to be unveiled by President Trump during his scheduled trip to Saudi Arabia.

Context: Since the October 7^th massacre, there has been a campaign afoot in various European states to recognise Palestinian statehood unilaterally, without a peace agreement. This was done despite the fact that there are two competing governments in these territories: one led by Fatah from Ramallah and one by Hamas from Gaza. Norway, Spain, and Ireland have already carried out such a recognition, and France has indicated that it may do so as well this summer.

To that end, the MoU’s reference to the “importance of recognition as a contribution to the two-state solution” can be read as an indication that the UK Government is considering a similar move.
Signing MoU with the PA could be viewed as an attempt by the Labour government to solidify its position prior to the incoming local elections across England as they face opposition from pro-Gaza Independents in some areas.
A Palestinian state has not come into being in the various rounds of final status talks since the Oslo Accords (Camp-David / Clinton Parameters and Taba negotiations in 2000-1, the Annapolis talks in 2007-8, and the Kerry negotiations in 2013-4) not because Israel or the international community has refused one, but because each time the Palestinian side rejected the prospect of statehood if the price of statehood was full reconciliation with the presence of a neighbouring Jewish state and the termination of all claims and conflict.
In particular, the Palestinian side at these negotiations demanded a “right of return” for the descendants of refugees from the 1948 war.
Recognising a state now that has not been formed and does not in fact exist would not change the reality on the ground for the Palestinians; only a full peace agreement with Israel can do that. But it would set the stage for even more abuses of the international system, in particular international courts, for hostile actions against Israel.
Al-Sheikh’s appointment last week as a deputy to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas puts him in an advantageous, but far from guaranteed, position to succeed the ailing Palestinian President. He is seen as close to the Saudis and someone both Israeli and Western officials have worked well with in the past.
Abbas’ appointment of a deputy and, by implication, a favoured candidate for succession comes a week after his much reported condemnation of Hamas and his demand that they release the hostages and end Gaza’s suffering.

Looking ahead: In any negotiated settlement for an Israeli-Palestinian peace, the two sides will have to come to an agreement on the well-known list of final status issues: sovereignty, borders, Jerusalem, security, refugees, and settlements.

It is notable that the UK position as expressed in this memorandum predetermines the outcome of the first three, and all in line with the Palestinian and not the Israeli position.
In Israel it is widely believed that a Palestinian state on the West Bank, especially one proclaimed and recognised without a peace agreement with Israel, will quickly become a Hamas stronghold, rendering all of Israel’s population centres threatened with rocket attacks and October 7-style rampages, as happened following Israel’s withdrawal of settlers and soldiers from Gaza. Moreover, the dangling of a symbolic gesture such as recognition as a reward not for peacemaking but for an enormity like October 7^th incentivises more violence, more rejectionism, and more war.

January 22, 2025

Israel launches major counter-terror operation in Jenin

What’s happened: An operation involving the IDF and the Shin Bet began yesterday in Jenin with coordinated drone strikes on terrorist infrastructure. The IDF said that the operation, named “Iron Wall,” will continue “as long as necessary.”

Prime Minister Netanyahu said the operation constitutes “a further step toward achieving the goal we set – strengthening security in Judea and Samaria…Israel is acting systematically and decisively against the Iranian Axis wherever it extends its reach – in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Judea and Samaria.”
Defence Minister Katz said that the operation reflects the “first lesson” learned from the IDF’s repeated raids in the Gaza Strip: the importance of eliminating terrorists and destroying terror infrastructure in Jenin “without the recurrence of terrorism within the city…We will not allow the Iranian octopus arms or radical Sunni Islam to jeopardise the lives of the settlers [in the West Bank] or to establish a terror front to the east of Israel.”
Palestinian sources report ten killed and 40 wounded.
Last night, a lone wolf terrorist carried out a stabbing attack on a crowded Tel Aviv street. The assailant, a Moroccan citizen with permanent residency in the United States, was shot to death after stabbing four Israeli civilians. This came only days after a similar stabbing attack nearby.
Also yesterday, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi announced his resignation. Taking full responsibility for the IDF’s operational failures on October 7th, Halevi joins a number of senior security officials who have either resigned or announced their intention to resign following the Hamas attacks. In a public statement, Halevi said “I will carry the responsibility for the terrible failure with me for the rest of my life.”

Context: Israel has launched at least ten offensive operations in Jenin over the course of 2024. In recent weeks, however, the IDF largely held back as the Palestinian Authority (PA) itself mounted an unusually large operation against terror organisations in the city.

The return of the IDF, publicly condemned by the PA, could be interpreted as a tacit division of labour between Israeli and the PA, or a signal of frustration on the part of the Israelis with the Palestinian operation.
Israeli sources reported that the operation was launched to deal with an imminent threat. The frequency and increasing sophistication of attacks against Israelis in the northern West Bank around both Jenin and Nablus have been a cause for concern for Israel. Last week an IED on a roadside between Jenin and Nablus killed an Israeli reservist and wounded four other soldiers, including a senior officer.
Monday saw violence involving radical settlers, ostensibly in protest of the Gaza ceasefire with attacks targeting a Palestinian village which had been the scene of a fatal shooting attack in early January which killed 3 Israelis.
Hamas is keen to see a new front opened in the West Bank, which is not covered by the ceasefire, in order to weaken the Palestinian Authority and draw Israeli forces and attention away from Gaza.
One aspect of the Gaza ceasefire that strengthens Hamas in the West Bank is the release of Hamas terrorists into the West Bank as part of the hostage deal. One explanation for the timing of this operation is to eradicate terrorist infrastructure ahead of their release.
The attack in Tel Aviv by a tourist is a rare example of ‘tourist terrorism.’ Border inspectors at Ben Gurion Airport suspected him, sent him to be questioned to security officials, who ultimately approved his entry. The Shin Bet said that it decided that there was no reason to ban his entry into the country and that the matter would be investigated. In April 2003, two British tourists, Asif Muhammad Hanif and Omar Khan Sharif, carried out a suicide bombing a bar in Tel Aviv, which killed three civilians and wounded 50.

Looking ahead: The West Bank is the one arena of conflict where violence has been relatively contained since October 2023, but the potential for a full-scare eruption remains. Both the IDF and PA have every interest in keeping a lid on violence, and they have just barely succeeded in doing so over the past 14 months. There is no guarantee that they will continue to do so indefinitely.

As Hamas has seen its allies weakened in Lebanon, Iran, Syria, and as its own forces have been decimated in Gaza, the West Bank remains its most untapped source of firepower on Israel. “That’s the only front where they see a potential,” the long-time observer of Palestinian affairs Ehud Yaari told the New York Times

January 6, 2025

Three killed in West Bank terror attacks

West Bank shooting: Three people were killed and six wounded in a shooting attack this morning near Kedumim, after shots were fired at private vehicles and a bus.

The attack occurred in the village Funduk when two terrorists armed with rifles shot at two private Israeli vehicles and a bus.
Magen David Adom ambulance service pronounced three of the victims dead. Two of the victims are women in their sixties who were traveling in one car, and the third is a man on board the bus.
Video footage shows a gunman firing at the bus from inside a car, allowing the terrorists to flee the scene.
The IDF has launched a manhunt, with the assumption that they fled to one of the neighbouring Palestinian villages in the area. As such roadblocks have been placed in the area to prevent their escape.

November 12, 2024

Israelis injured in al-Khader

Two Israelis were injured during an IDF counterterrorism activity in the area of al-Khader when a Palestinian vehicle drove into a checkpoint and carried out a ramming attack.

Following the US election, some on the Israeli right view it as an opportunity to revisit annexation of the West Bank. Finance Minister Smotrich commented yesterday saying, “Trump’s victory brings with it an important opportunity for the State of Israel. We were but a pace’s distance from applying sovereignty to the settlements in Judea and Samaria, and now the time has arrived to do that. 2025 is the year of sovereignty in Judea and Samaria. That is our answer to Sinwar, may his name and memory be obliterated. The new Nazis need to pay a price in territory that will be taken from them forever both in Gaza and in Judea and Samaria.”
Others, even within the settler movement, criticised these comments as being divisive among Israelis. Instead, better to focus first on returning Israelis to their homes in the north and south.

October 7, 2024

One year on and Iranian proxies continue to attack Israel

Israel has commemorated the one-year anniversary of Hamas’s October 7^th attacks, as it continues military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, while coming under rocket and missile fire from Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.

Sirens sound this morning in Haifa, Acre and several surrounding towns and villages after a barrage of around 100 rockets were fired from Lebanon so far this morning.
Hezbollah launched 190 projectiles yesterday, including at civilian population centres in Tel Aviv and Haifa. Hezbollah claimed that it targeted the Glilot army base where the IDF’s 8200 signals intelligence unit is headquartered. The IDF says that five rockets were launched in the attack, some of which were intercepted and the rest struck open areas, causing no injuries or major damage.
Military operations against Hezbollah are continuing, with focus on southern Lebanon, and the Dahiya suburb of Beirut. A fourth army division has been deployed to southern Lebanon with the IDF stating it is conducting “limited, localised and targeted operations” in the area.
The IDF announced that it killed the head of Hezbollah’s logistical headquarters, Suhail Hussein Husseini in an airstrike on Beirut. Husseini, a member of Hezbollah’s Jihad Council, participated in weapon transfers between Hezbollah and Iran and was responsible for distributing the advanced weaponry among Hezbollah’s units. Further airstrikes were also conducted on Hezbollah targets in the more northern Beqaa Valley.
The Iranian foreign minister warned Israel against retaliating for its attack against Israel last week adding that any attack on Iran’s infrastructure would be met with a stronger response.
The IDF successfully intercepted a surface to surface ballistic missile fired at central Israel from Yemen. Sirens sounded across the centre of the country, but no injuries or damage was reported.
The Houthis claimed responsibility for this attack, saying that two missiles were fired at Israel as well as numerous drones targeting Eilat and Jaffa.
One Israeli soldier has been killed in the IDF’s latest operations in the northern Gaza Strip with another soldier suffering serious injuries in the same incident. His death marks the IDF’s 350^th fatality since launching the ground operation last October.
The IDF said that 20 Hamas operatives were killed in the past day during a new IDF operation in northern Gaza’s Jabaliya.
Hamas also targeted central Israel with a barrage of rocket fire while October 7^th commemorations took place. While mostly intercepted, shrapnel falling caused some damage to a property in Kfar Chabad where it also lightly wounded two women.
After weeks of silence, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has reestablished contact with hostage-ceasefire deal mediators in Qatar while former Hamas politburo chief, Khaled Mashaal told Reuters that the group would rise “like a Phoenix”, and that it continues to recruit fighters and manufacture weapons.

Context: Israel marked the anniversary of the October 7^th attack in two separate national ceremonies last night.

The first was held in Hayarkon Park in Tel Aviv, crowd-funded and organised by some of the victims’ families. It was originally expected to host 40,000 spectators, but due to the expanded range of recent rocket attacks, the capacity was reduced to fewer than 2,000.
The second, formal government-organised commemoration was held in an amphitheatre in Ofakim and pre-recorded several days ago. It was broadcast immediately after the first ceremony ended.
Both ceremonies included survivors’ testimony and musical accompaniment as well as reflecting a full range of Israeli society with messages of solidarity and unity. However the fact that two ceremonies were deemed necessary speaks largely to the continued anger and resentment felt my many over the government’s failure to take full responsibility into the disaster and its foot dragging in launching a state commission of enquiry into the disaster.
There is growing concern for the 101 hostages in Gaza. The latest intelligence assessment made public includes:
- Most of the hostages are being held in tunnels, likely narrow passageways with very little food, without electricity, without showers and without bathrooms, and with almost no air.
- The terrorist captors holding them have become more violent toward the hostages the more the IDF intensified its attacks. One official reportedly told the families that the terrorists’ finger on the trigger had become lighter. He said that the terrorists had been given a direct order to execute hostages if they felt in danger or if they heard soldiers approaching.
- The assessment is that most have lost 20% of their weight and some are most likely are suffering from severe medical issues that have not been treated.
- In such difficult conditions the hostages will not be able to survive for an extended period of time.
Despite the resumption of communication with Sinwar and the pressure from the families to reach a deal, the chances are not considered to be high. This is due to Sinwar’s continued intransigence and Israel’s formal demand to retain its position on the Philadelphi Corridor.
There had been efforts to reinvigorate a plan that would see all of the hostages released and allow Sinwar and the remaining Hamas leadership safe passage out of Gaza.
It remains unclear how much the US administration can invest in this process as the election draws nearer.
In parallel Israel is looking to increase the Humanitarian Aid into Gaza. The estimated cost is $5.4 billion (£4.12bn) per year for food alone. There are also suggestions that the Israeli Government is pushing to have IDF take over the distribution of all aid to Gaza. The IDF would take responsibility for every stage of the process – purchasing the aid, transporting it, securing it and distributing it to Gaza’s residents.
In the UK, Prime Minister Starmer made a statement to the House of Commons yesterday paying tribute to the victims of October 7th, including 15 British citizens who were slain, and another victim who has since died in captivity. He also talked about the Palestinians death toll, and the humanitarian crisis in Lebanon.
The Prime Minister said he supports Israel’s right to defend herself against Iran’s aggression in line with international law.

Looking ahead: The head of IDF Northern Command has told local leaders of northern communities that they could begin to make plans for the return of their residents after the Succot holiday, at the end of the month. The prevailing assessment is that the communities in question are ones that are at a distance from the border and leaders of these communities will await government endorsement of endorse this plan.

Consultations between Israel and the US continue over a response to Iran for firing 181 ballistic missiles at Israel last week. There are a number of attack options: from military installations to symbols of government, energy infrastructure and the Iranian nuclear programme.
The Israeli government has declared that going forward an additional – ‘Iron Sword War Memorial Day’ will be marked every year on October 7th.

May 22, 2023

Three Palestinians killed in IDF raid

Overnight the IDF operated simultaneously in Balata refugee camp (in the Nablus area) and in Jenin.

In Balata, three Palestinians were killed and nine wounded during an exchange of fire that lasted several hours.
Palestinian sources identified the three dead as belonging to Fatah’s al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, including the Commander Fathi Rizk, 30; Abdullah Abu Hamdan, 24; and Muhammad Zaytoun, 32.
During the counter-terror raid IDF troops also arrested three wanted men and confiscated weapons including three M-16 rifles, ammunition, military equipment and weapon parts.
Based on intelligence from the Shin Bet, the IDF also exposed an explosives manufacturing site containing, according to the IDF, “dozens of kilograms of explosives designated for carrying out attacks. The manufacturing site was detonated by the forces.”
In parallel in Jenin, the IDF arrested three men and also confiscated military equipment.
The Palestinian Authority Spokesperson Nabil Abu Rudeineh described the operation as “a veritable massacre” adding, it is “the continuation of the full-scale war that is being waged against the Palestinian people. The ongoing aggression in Nablus is a war crime that must be ended. The Israeli government bears responsibility for this dangerous and ongoing escalation.”
Yesterday there was a car ramming attack in the village of Huwara south of Nablus. An IDF soldier was wounded and taken to hospital in moderate condition. The driver of the car drove onto the sidewalk, accelerated, hit the soldier and fled the scene. A second soldier opened fire, but apparently missed and the vehicle fled towards Nablus.

Context: These targeted IDF operations in Palestinian West Bank cities are once again carried out by IDF elite ground forces, as opposed to the air force strikes carried out in the Gaza Strip earlier this month.

For the IDF this is reinforcing their intelligence and operational capabilities to act against terror targets deep in Palestinian built up areas. It also attests to their ability to act precisely against armed targets whilst avoiding collateral damage as much as possible.
Prior to the car-ramming in Huwara, there had been two weeks of quiet in the West Bank, that also saw a decrease in planned attacks against Israelis.
However the car-ramming in Huwara is the fourth terror attack in the village in the last two months.
Ahead of the weekly Israeli cabinet meeting which was held in the Western Wall tunnels, Minister Ben Gvir visited the Temple Mount, for the second time this year.
Whilst his visit was criticised as provocative by some, others noted the fact that he delayed his visit, and did not go up last week on Jerusalem Day.
Meanwhile in the northern West Bank, head of IDF Central Command Maj. Gen. Yehuda Fuchs signed an order allowing Israelis to re-enter the former settlement of Homesh.
Homesh was one of four West Bank settlements evacuated in 2005 during the disengagement (removal of all the settlements from Gaza Strip).
The military order follows the Knesset decision from two months ago that rescinded the application of the disengagement law in the West Bank.
The move will add to tension between Israel and the US with the move criticised by US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller as “deeply troubling.”

Looking ahead: The IDF will continue its manhunt for the driver of the car-ramming attack in Huwara yesterday.

Now that Fuchs has signed the order, Israeli civilians will be permitted to return to the demolished settlement and to stay there.
However, the future of the site and specifically the yeshiva, remains unclear, as it was built on private Palestinian land and therefore still needs to be relocated.

May 10, 2023

Israel braced for retaliatory attacks

Instructions remain in place for Israeli communities within 40km of the Gaza Strip border to stay in close proximity to bomb shelters following the assassination of three senior commanders of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).

Following the Israeli strikes, yesterday Prime Minister Netanyahu held a press conference alongside Defence Minister Gallant, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi and Director of the Shin Bet Security Service Ronen Bar. Prime Minister Netanyahu said that he and Defence Minister Gallant have instructed security forces to prepare for all escalation scenarios, including the possibility of more than one front.
Ronen Bar revealed that one of the targets assassinated yesterday, Tarek Az Aldin, had been working on creating a rocket-launching apparatus in the West Bank city of Jenin and had taught a cell how to build and fire rockets.
Following the earlier strikes, yesterday afternoon an IDF aircraft targeted a PIJ squad travelling by car, killing two operatives whist transporting anti-tank guided missiles to a launch pad in the southern Gaza Strip.
Last night IDF soldiers killed two armed gunmen near Jenin, after troops came under fire from a passing car.

Operation Shield and Arrow: The operation launched early Tuesday morning caught the PIJ completely by surprise.

It included 40 aircraft, that struck the three senior PIJ targets in their homes simultaneously.
- Khalil Bahatini – PIJ Commander of the Northern Gaza Strip.
- Jihad Ahnam – Secretary of the PIJ Military Council (released in the Shalit deal).
- Tariq Az Aldin – Senior member of PIJ military leadership, responsible for military activities in the West Bank.
Images of the strikes show the targeting of their apartments without causing extensive damage to the rest of the building.
However, alongside the three senior commanders, 10 non-combatant Palestinians were killed, including four women and four children. Twenty others were injured.
In addition to the three assassinations, several other PIJ military sites were also targeted.

Context: The decision to target the three senior PIJ commanders was made last week after over 100 rockets were fired towards southern Israel.

One of the key indicators for this round of fighting will be whether Hamas also takes part in the fighting, and to what extent. Last August when Israeli launched Operation Breaking Dawn, which also targeted senior PIJ commanders, Hamas did not get involved.
There is pressure from Iran (the main backer of PIJ) on Hamas to be part of the response.
Khaled Mashal, the leader of Hamas outside the Gaza Strip threatened yesterday, “The blood-stained, vile assassination of three of the best of our nation in Gaza is a treacherous crime. There will be a strong response from the unified resistance forces.”
As ever Egypt plays a critical role in the indirect mediation between the sides. Israel has reportedly sent a message via Egyptian mediators warning Hamas not to respond, saying that if Hamas were to join the fighting, its senior leadership would also be considered targets for assassination.
If Hamas does choose to engage, this could lead to expansion of the operation, possibly beyond the Gaza Strip.
One of the primary motivations of launching the operation was to restore deterrence. In particular following the rocket fire over Passover from not only the Gaza Strip but also from Lebanon and Syria.
There were insinuations that the strike had a political dimension, due to pressure from Minister Ben Gvir. However, this has been stringently rejected, Yediot Ahronot quotes a source close to the prime minster clarifying, “The State of Israel’s security actions are not linked in any way to the steps taken by one party or another in the coalition and are taken only on the basis of security and state considerations.”
Notably, Ben Gvir was not part of the security consultations, partly over fears of leaks, despite his role as Minister for National Security.
Chief of Staff Halevi related to the deaths of the non-combatants, that Israel goes to lengths to avoid. However, he noted that the terrorists systematically operate from within the civilian population and, by so doing, placed their lives in jeopardy.

Looking ahead: Israel’s security establishment is on its highest level of alert ahead of possible retaliatory attacks.

PIJ has warned that they would respond at a time, place and manner that would surprise Israel.

May 5, 2023

Israel strikes Dee killers in Nablus

What happened: Around 200 Israeli troops took part in a counter-terror raid yesterday morning, targeting the terrorists who killed three members of the Dee family.

The raid deep into the casbah of Nablus was partially captured in Palestinian CCTV and appeared to show the lead IDF soldiers in disguise, including some dressed as women, others as labourers.
Troops surrounded the building and following a short gun fight, the IDF announced that they killed the two Hamas terrorist operatives Hassan Ktnani and Maed Mitsri along with third Hamas operative Ibrahim Hura, who had helped them hide.
The IDF also found two M-16 rifles and an AK-47 in the apartment used in the attack against the Dee family three weeks ago.

Responses: Following the operation, Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “This morning we settled the score with the murderers of Lucy, Maia, and Rina Dee. Our message to those who harm us, and to those who try to harm us, is that it may take a day, a week, or a month – be assured that we will come for you. It doesn’t matter where you try to hide, we will find you. Whoever harms us – their blood is on their own heads.”

Rabbi Leo Dee told Ynet, “The world will be able to sleep better when these terrorists are no longer alive. I am very happy to hear that no soldier or civilian was hurt or affected in the event. It is a mission that only the IDF and the Shin Bet can do.”
Curiously, the Governor of Nablus Ibrahim Ramadan released a statement saying, “The killing of the young men in Nablus this morning is a natural result of their non-compliance with the Palestinian security services and their refusal to surrender their weapons.”
Chairman of Palestinian Authority (PA) Mahmud Abbas said, “We strongly condemn the aggression against Nablus and call on the American administration to act to stop it.”
Hamas claimed all three men were members of their military wing and said the attack in the Jordan Valley was in response to the Israeli aggression against worshipers in al-Aqsa during the month of Ramadan.

Context: Intelligence sources have revealed that the security establishment knew the identity of the terrorists hours after the attack and assumed that they were hiding in the casbah in Nablus.

They waited until they had the precise location of their hideout.
The entire raid was completed in an hour, no other Palestinians were killed and no IDF forces were injured, though an IDF dog was killed whilst protecting a soldier.
The raid is another intelligence coup for Israel, as well as a complex operation in the heart of a Palestinian city in broad daylight.
The raid comes days after the latest flare-up when over a hundred rockets were fired from Gaza on Tuesday.
The IDF responded with airstrikes against sixteen military targets, with one Palestinian reportedly killed.
The relatively subdued response caused anger among some right wing members of the government. This anger was compounded when it was revealed that the prime minister did not invite Public Security Minister Ben Gvir to the security consultation. This is turn led Ben Gvir and his five members of Knesset to boycott parliamentary votes on Wednesday, with threats to resigns, and counter threats from the Likud telling him to quit.
The cell, with its affiliation to Hamas, attests to a rise in Hamas involvement in West Bank terror. In addition one of the men killed yesterday was a close family relation of Husam Badran, a senior Hamas official released as part of the Gilad Shalit prisoner exchange, who now lives in Qatar.
The third man killed was also a member of the Lion’s Den group, further proof of their coordination with Hamas.
Overall there is growing concern over the terror infrastructure in the West Bank, particularly the phenomena of small cells armed with automatic weapons who are planning further attacks. There is increased speculation whether it will be necessary to conduct a wider scale military operation. Currently there are four possible scenarios:
- A large scale operation across the West Bank: the logic being it is better to strike before there is a major terror attack and take the initiative.
- Others have suggested a more gradual approach: instead of one large operation, a series of localised ones.
- A third option is to continue the current practice of targeted operations that focus on specific intelligence against wanted suspects or ‘ticking bombs’ where an attack is imminent.
- A fourth option is to empower PA security forces to operate against these threats.
- A fifth option could be a combination of the last three options.
Meanwhile, in Damascus yesterday, as part of his historic visit, Iranian President Raisi met with Palestinian leaders including the head of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Ziyad al-Nakhalah as the latest indicator of closer Iranian ties to Palestinian terror groups.

Looking ahead: Large deployments of IDF troops remain in place across the West Bank, with Hamas threatening to launch revenge attacks for yesterday’s killing.

In the next couple of weeks, the Palestinians will mark the Nakba Day (catastrophe) on May 15, the English anniversary of Israel’s independence. Later that week, Israel marks Jerusalem Day, the anniversary of reunifying the city. Both dates have in the past seen a spike in hostilities.

April 24, 2023

Jordanian parliamentarian caught smuggling weapons

Jordanian politician Imad Al-Adwan was arrested after he was caught smuggling almost 200 handguns and rifles at the Allenby Crossing on the Jordan River, from Jordan into the West Bank.
He initially raised suspicions after he arrived by car at the border crossing on Saturday night with three large heavy suitcases.
When taken for questioning he claimed that he was transferring gold, and that his parliamentary immunity would suffice.
Following inspection of the bags, he was found to be smuggling 160 handguns and 17 M16 rifles, individually wrapped in cellophane.
There are contradictory reports over whether he was also transferring any gold.
He was taken for questioning by the Shin Bet Security Service where they will try and ascertain who gave him the guns and who was meant to be the recipient.

Context: There has been a significant increase of smuggling weapons from Jordan into the West Bank over the last year.

However this appears to be the first instance of a Jordanian official involved. Though there is speculation that this was not the first time Al-Adwan had smuggled in weapons.
Al-Adwan is a member of the Jordanian parliament’s Palestine committee. He is known as a strong supporter of the Palestinians and Hamas. He is 35 years old, from one of the Jordanian tribes in the south (not a Palestinian).
The recent heavy proliferation of automatic weapons among Palestinian militias has increased the intensity of gun fights between Palestinians and the IDF (during IDF counter-terror operations). This has resulted in the deaths of dozens of young Palestinian combatants over the last year.
This incident follows Ramadan that saw increased tension, particularly over the Jordan’s traditional custodial role over Muslim prayer on the Temple Mount.
Israel and Jordan have been formally at peace since 1994, in that time there have been several security related incidents that have caused embarrassment and a rise in tension. This includes Israeli Mossad attempts to poison Hamas leader Khaled Mashal in 1997. In 2017 an Israeli Embassy security guard accidentally killed his Jordanian landlord with a stray bullet, following an alteration after he was stabbed by a young Palestinian. In this latest incident it’s the Jordanian side that may need to come up with some compensation.
However, overall Israel and Jordanian security forces work in close cooperation on a range of shared security issues, including the threat from ISIS and other extremist groups and the integrity of their shared border.
In the lead up to Ramadan Jordan hosted a summit in Aqaba, including senior Israeli, Palestinian, Jordanian, Egyptian and US officials, among a range of issues was improving security coordination.

Looking ahead: Jordanian diplomats are engaging with Israeli officials to try and secure his release.

Israeli estimates believe he will be released after he has been questioned, with speculation over the terms and conditions that the Jordanians will pay in return.
As in previous years, a general closure will be imposed upon the West Bank and the Gaza Strip from today until the end of Independence Day on Wednesday night.
There remains a heightened state of alert with concerns over further attempted terror attacks.

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