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The West Bank and Settlements

Key background
  • Israel took control of the West Bank from Jordan during the Six Day War of 1967. The West Bank refers to the west bank of the Jordan River, is also called by its biblical and geographic names of Judea and Samaria, or beyond the ‘Green Line’ that marked the boundary prior to 1967.
  • For Israel its significance is both religious and strategic. Often referred to as ‘the cradle of Jewish civilisation’, it is where the majority of biblical stories took place. It is also important strategically. Topographically, the mountain ridge overlooks Israel’s coastal plane. It also provides an element of strategic depth, without the West Bank Israel would be just 9 miles wide at its narrowest point.
  • Israeli settlements were first built in 1967 and gradually expanded across the West Bank with significant blocs east and south of Jerusalem. The population of the West Bank is estimated at just under 3 million, made up of around 500,000 Jews and 2.5million Palestinians.
  • According to the Oslo Accords of 1993 which were intended to act as the basis of a road map to a comprehensive peace between Israel and the Palestinians, the West Bank was divided into Areas A, B, and C. Area A is under full Palestinian security and civil rule, Area B is under joint Israeli security and Palestinian civil rule, and Area C is under full Israeli security and civil rule.
  • Israeli settlements are only present in Area C, and the major Palestinian cities (Nablus, Jenin, Tulkarem, Qalqilya, Ramallah, Bethlehem, Jericho and 80 percent of Hebron) as well as their surrounding areas fall under Area A which Israelis are forbidden to enter without special authorisation.

Updated October 21, 2024

Counter-terror arrests in Nablus and Jenin

  • There have been three separate terror attacks against Israeli citizens over the last three days.
  • On Tuesday morning, there was a shooting attack in Sheikh Jarrah in East Jerusalem. Two men, both ultra-Orthodox, were driving back from morning prayers at the Tomb of Simon the Just when they were shot at close range. They were taken to hospital in moderate condition.
  • The suspect fled the scene on foot, abandoning his Carlo gun. The attack was captured on CCTV that assisted in identifying the attacker.
  • Earlier this month, the head of the Shin Bet Security Service, Ronen Bar, revealed it had prevented more than 200 “significant” terrorist attacks since the beginning of the year. Bar said that the thwarted attacks included “about 150 shooting attacks, 20 bomb attacks, car-rammings, suicide bombings, kidnappings and more.”
  • On Monday, an Israeli man was wounded in a stabbing attack at the Gush Etzion Junction. IDF troops at the scene shot the assailant, a female Palestinian.
  • Also on Monday, there was shooting towards Kibbutz Meirav, adjacent to the West Bank. No-one was injured, but one home was damaged.
  • Yesterday, the IDF carried out a counter-terror operation in Jenin. The operation was based on intelligence that a Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) cell was planning to imminently launch a terror attack. Three PIJ operatives were arrested, two of whom were experts in assembling explosives. During the arrest armed gunmen fired and threw explosive devices at the forces, who responded with live fire. Palestinian sources reported five people were wounded, one in serious condition.

Context: The attacks coincide with the end of Ramadan, a period that saw two lethal terror attacks against Israeli citizens, including the shooting of three members of the British-Israeli Dee family.

  • This week, the police announced that they prevented eight terror attacks in the last few days.
  • Earlier this month, the head of the Shin Bet Security Service, Ronen Bar, revealed it had prevented more than 200 “significant” terrorist attacks since the beginning of the year. Bar said that “over 200 significant attacks have been thwarted, including about 150 shooting attacks, 20 bomb attacks, car-rammings, suicide bombings, kidnappings and more.”
  • Yesterday, the Shin Bet cleared for publication the revelation that Hezbollah and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps have tried again to recruit two West Bank Palestinians to carry out terror attacks in Israel. It revealed that the men had been approached on social media and had subsequently agreed to smuggle weapons into the West Bank. They also agreed, at the request of Hezbollah, to collect intelligence about IDF activities and to recruit additional operatives to carry out more terror attacks.
  • Meanwhile, the head of the Hamas political bureau Ismail Haniyeh led a delegation of senior Hamas officials to Saudi Arabia for the first time in eight years.
  • In parallel, Palestinian Authority Chairman Abbas is also visiting Saudi Arabia and met earlier with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman.

Looking ahead: Next week Israel marks both Memorial and Independence Day. Security forces remain on the highest level of alert across all sectors, with intelligence suggesting more attacks are being planned.

  • The manhunt continues for the terrorists who murdered Lucy, Rina and Maia Dee.

April 15, 2023

Israel on high security alert on all fronts

  • Today is the forth Friday of Ramadan, and also Iranian-led Quds (Jerusalem) Day.
  • Tens of thousands of Muslim worshippers are expected to attend services on the Temple Mount / al-Aqsa Mosque.
  • The Police in Jerusalem have augmented their forces with around 2,300 police officers, Border Police troops and reinforcements from across the country deployed throughout the capital, particularly in East Jerusalem and the Old City.
  • In the West Bank, the IDF remains on a heightened state of alert having also deployed reinforcements across the sector over the last few days.
  • The Israel Airports Authority announced that the airspace near the northern and southern borders has been closed to civilian flights.

Stoking the Fire: Since the Islamic Revolution, Iran has used Quds Day to rally against Israel.

  • This year Iran is promoting ‘resistance’ in the West Bank as a way to ‘protect’ Jerusalem.
  • Following Iran’s reconciliation with Saudi Arabia, Iran is encouraging all the Arab and Islamic countries (both Shia and Sunni) to act in unison against Israel.
  • Hamas has called for a large turnout of both Palestinians and Israeli Arabs to attend prayers today in al-Aqsa.
  • Ziyad al-Nakhlah, the leader of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), is visiting Iraq this week, he also called on the Arab world to unite against Israel, saying, “Positive steps are happening in the region. We will continue until we expel the Zionist invaders from our country.”
  • Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, is expected to make a live address later today and share a digital platform with Iran’s president, Ibrahim Raisi.
  • There has been growing cooperation among Iranian-supported terror organisations, including high level meetings of Hezbollah, Hamas and PIJ leaders in Beirut.

Context: As in previous years Prime Minister Netanyahu decided to prevent non-Muslims from visiting the Temple Mount until the end of Ramadan.

  • The decision had the unanimous backing of Defence Minister Gallant, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Halevi and Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar.
  • National Security Minister Ben Gvir described the decision as “capitulation to terrorism.” According to Ben Gvir, “The lack of Jews’ presence on the Temple Mount will automatically result in a depletion of the police force on the mount, which will create fertile ground for huge displays of incitement to murder Jews and even to a scenario of stone-throwing at Jewish worshippers at the Western Wall. When terrorism strikes at us, we need to strike back at it with tremendous force, not to capitulate to it and its whims.”
  • The Chief Rabbinate, as usual, supported the decision, as according to their interpretation of Jewish Law it is forbidden for Jews to ascend the Temple Mount.
  • Following last week’s rocket attacks from , Lebanon, Gaza Strip and two deadly terror attacks, this week has been relatively quiet. However, the IDF has continued to operate against terror cells in the West Bank. Five people were arrested in Jenin suspected of planning an imminent terror attack.
  • Earlier in the week two gunmen were killed in the Nablus area, after they shot at an IDF position.
  • The Israeli police entered the al-Aqsa mosque last Wednesday based on intelligence that a pre-planned attempt by hundreds of young men to bring rocks and explosives into the mosque was aimed start violence and unrest. No-one was killed, and there were no serious injuries, but footage of police violence contributed to the spike in attacks by Palestinian terror groups.
  • In Israel’s response to rockets from the Gaza Strip last week, the Air Force dropped 50 tons of explosives on Gaza, targeting Hamas military sites. No Gazans were killed in the strikes.
  • The response to the rockets from Lebanon was even lighter, so as not to risk further escalation. The Israeli assessment was that the rocket fire from southern Lebanon was a Hamas or an independent Palestinian initiative, with Hezbollah maintaining plausible deniability.  However, Iran is certainly encouraging a more coordinated effort and ratcheting up the pressure.

Looking ahead: The police are aware that Hamas will be looking to exploit any rioting or attacks as a propaganda success.

  • Iron Dome missile defence systems are on a high state of alert, deployed around the Gaza Strip and the northern borders.
  • The ban on civilian flights is expected to remain in place until Sunday evening.

April 14, 2023

British-Israeli mother succumbs to wounds from terror attack

  •  British mother Lucy Dee died of her wounds yesterday, three days after the deadly shooting attack that claimed the lives of her two daughters, Maia and Rina.
  • Her death is widely mourned across Israel, UK and the Jewish world. Both President Herzog and Prime Minister Netanyahu have issued condolences.
  • Her Husband, a former Rabbi in the UK, gave an impassioned plea to differentiate between good and evil.
  • Last night Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed the nation. He began by again offering condolences to the Dee family.
  • Relating to the recent wave of attacks, Netanyahu blamed the previous government for the loss of deterrence.
  • He warned that if there are further attacks from , President Assad will pay “a very heavy price,” adding that Israel will not allow Hamas to entrench itself in Lebanon.
  • Netanyahu also confirmed Defence Minister Gallant will remain in post, having put their past differences behind them.
  • In a rare move, he also answered questions from journalists. On the issue of judicial reforms, Netanyahu said that he was looking for a broad agreement, whist promising to protect minorities and women, LGBTQ people and the ultra-Orthodox.
  • Asked about the formation of a National Guard, Netanyahu said it “will not be anyone’s militia” and would fall under the command of one of the security forces.
  • Also yesterday – around 20,000 right wing Israelis including seven government ministers and 17 coalition MKs marched to the West Bank settler outpost of Evyatar in protest of recent terror attacks. Among the marchers were National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Betzalel Smotrich.

Tension remains high, but relative calm has been maintained over the last 48 hours, despite the previous few days marked by rocket fire from , Lebanon, Gaza Strip and two deadly terror attacks.

  • The right wing march was criticised by some on the right for diverting IDF troops to defend the marchers instead of participating in the manhunt for the terrorists that killed three members of the Dee family.
  • There was also criticism that Israel’s response to the recent attacks has been too feeble. Likud MK Danny Danon told Army Radio, “The containment approach isn’t working and has brought on further attacks. We have to pivot from containing to defeating. The current situation can’t go on. The effort to postpone the inevitable has only brought us to a multiple-theatre incident. We have all the capabilities and strength to pummel our enemies. Our region only understands force and the time has come for us to use it.”
  • However members of the security cabinet have maintained that Israel’s retaliatory strikes were proportionate and commensurate, given the circumstances.
  • The police released new intelligence that explained their decision to enter into the al Aqsa mosque last week. According to Police Commissioner Insp. Gen. Yaakov Shabtai, as well as rocks and fireworks, explosive devices were also smuggled into the Temple Mount last week with the intention of using them against the police.
  • Netanyahu’s comments blaming the outgoing government for the increased terror is the latest spat between government and opposition. On Sunday night, Netanyahu met with Leader of the Opposition Lapid and gave him a security update. Afterwards, Lapid said, “The opposition will support any action recommended by the security branches. I arrived at the briefing with Netanyahu worried, and I left even more worried.”
  • In response, the Likud accused Lapid of playing “petty politics instead of projecting a message of firm unity to our enemies.”
  • Latest opinion polling on Channel 13 News shows a massive surge for Benny Gantz’s, National Unity Party up to 29 seats (from 12) with Yesh Atid down slightly to 21. Whilst Likud slumps to 20 (currently with 32).  The Religious Zionist Party and Jewish Power are also sightly down 11 (now 14), with Shas polling 9; United Torah Judaism: 6; Hadash-Ta’al: 6; United Arab List: 5; Yisrael Beiteinu: 5; Labour Party: 4; Balad: 4.  This would give the current coalition parties: 46 seats (down from 64) and the former coalition parties: 64 seats with Hadash-Ta’al and Balad on 10 combined.
  • The same poll also shows both Lapid and Gantz receiving more support for being better suited to serve as prime minister, rather than Netanyahu.

The manhunt to apprehend the terrorists who murdered the three Dee family members is still ongoing after the terrorists’ vehicle was found by Palestinian Authority security forces in Nablus.

  • The organs of the late Lucy Dee were transplanted and have saved the lives of 5 people.
  • A decision is expected to be made soon on whether to allow or close the Temple Mount to Jewish visitors in the last week of Ramadan.
  • The security establishment has said there was no security reason for Jews not to visit the Temple Mount on the seventh day of Passover (tomorrow), but after that it could then be limited to Muslim worshippers for the duration of Ramadan.

April 13, 2023

Two British-Israeli sisters killed in terror attack

  • The victims of Friday’s shooting attack near Hamra in the West Bank have been named as sisters and British nationals Maia Esther Dee and Rina Miriam Dee, aged 20 and 15.
  • Their mother Lucy, 48, remains in critical condition at Hadassah Hospital Ein Kerem.
  • The three, residents of the Israeli settlement of Efrat, were travelling by car near Hamra when they came under fire, causing their vehicle to crash. Terrorists then opened fire on the stricken vehicle.
  • The victims’ father, Rabbi Leo Dee, a former senior rabbi at Radlett United Synagogue and assistant rabbi in Hendon, was travelling in a separate car.
  • While no group has claimed responsibility for the attack, Hamas praised it as “a natural response to the occupation’s ongoing crimes against Al-Aqsa Mosque and its barbaric aggression against Lebanon and the steadfast Gaza.”

Israel continues to face and respond to multi-dimensional, multi-front security situations:

Rockets from :

  • Overnight Saturday, wo salvos, of three rockets each, were fired at Israel from , triggering alarms in the Israeli Golan towns of Natur and Avnei Eitan.
  • Three of the rockets entered Israeli territory, one being intercepted by Iron Dome and two landing in open fields.
  • A Palestinian-Syrian militia calling itself the Al-Quds Brigade claimed responsibility for the first salvo.
  • In response, the Israeli Air Force struck sites in the Syrian areas from which the rockets emanated – said by Syrian sources to be Tel al-Jamuah, located between Tasil and Nawa – including military sites, radars and artillery positions. Earlier, IDF artillery shelled the attack area, while unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) targeted the rocket launchers.

Tel Aviv Attack:

  • In Tel Aviv on Friday, an Italian tourist was killed and seven others injured when a terrorist launched a car-ramming attack along several hundred metres of Kaufmann Street, near Charles Clore Park.
  • Alessandro Parini, a 35-year-old lawyer from Rome, died in the attack, while hospital officials have disclosed that British nationals are amongst the injured.
  • The perpetrator, killed at the scene, was later named as Yousef Abu Jaber, 45, an Israeli citizen and father of five from Kfar Qasim with no security record.
  • A police official said that “A terrorist with no history of security issues, and not a young man, who carries out an attack like this was almost certainly influenced by the incitement.”
  • Kfar Qasim Mayor Adel Badir said, “We denounce any attack against innocent people and call for all sides to show tolerance. This is not the way of Kfar Qasim residents. The city was and remains a place for coexistence and the pursuit of peace.”

Temple Mount:

  • Overnight, hundreds of Palestinians once more barricaded themselves inside al Aqsa Mosque, with the Jordanian Waqf refusing to remove them despite commitments not to allow overnight stays in the mosque during Ramadan.
  • While Defence Minister Yoav Gallant on Saturday took the unusual step of reinforcing the police in the Central District with troops from the IDF, Israeli forces declined to move to remove those inside on this occasion.
  • This morning, groups of around 20 Jews at a time are being permitted to enter the compound under guard.

Context: The latest fatalities as a result of Palestinian terrorism takes the death toll on the Israeli side to eighteen since the beginning of this year. Thirty-two people were killed in terror attacks in 2022.

  • Despite facing rockets attacks from , Lebanon and the Gaza Strip this week, none of these attacks have resulted in fatalities or injuries.
  • The responses by the IDF have been calibrated according to the sector, but have all been measured and restrained, with no reported loss of lives. However, the response in Syria – targeting the source of fire – has been more robust than the response in Lebanon, where concerns over further reprisal attacks and escalation from Hezbollah have inspired restraint.
  • Israel’s security establishment had anticipated that Ramadan would be the catalyst to spark attacks against Israel. Already a month ago, the explosion at the Megiddo Junction by a terrorist who managed to enter Israel from Lebanon with a heavy bomb raised alarm. The bomb which exploded prematurely was evidence of cooperation between Hezbollah and Palestinian terror groups. However at the time, Israel did not blame Hezbollah directly, again, partly to give them more scope to respond (or not) and avoid an escalation.
  • The working understanding from Israeli intelligence is that the rocket fire from Lebanon was not Hezbollah, which has denied responsibility, but Palestinian groups operating out of southern Lebanon.
  • However, cooperation and coordination between Hezbollah and Palestinian terror organisations, with the guidance of Iran has been growing.
  • Similarly, the working assessment remains that Hamas in Gaza does not want to see an escalation there, but prefers to incite and encourage terrorism in the West Bank.
  • To an extent, events around the Temple Mount influence all other theatres, due to the resonance of the site for Muslims and Jews.
  • A pattern has developed whereby young men armed with rocks and  fireworks lock themselves into al Aqsa mosque at night in order to provoke police and create disturbances. On Saturday night the police let them remain inside the mosque and did not confront them, whilst facilitating Jewish visitors to the site and allowing the traditional Passover priestly blessings to be conducted at the Western Wall below.
  • There is also concern that Iran is also trying to incite Israeli Arabs to join the attacks. The terror attack in Tel Aviv was committed by an Israeli Arab. Of significance, the leader of the Islamic Ra’am Party Mansour Abbas condemned the attack writing on twitter in Hebrew: “Especially during these difficult times, it is important for me to emphasise, as I have done many times in the past – as for the Tel Aviv terror attack, is not the way of the Arab society or Arab citizens in Israel. Arab leadership, particularly Ra’am and the Islamic Movement, will not condone any acts of violence against citizens, regardless of their religion, race, or ethnicity.”

Political context: Israel was already facing a severe domestic crisis, as a result of divisions caused by the government’s proposed judicial reforms.

  • The reforms and the make-up of hard right members in the coalition are also compounding the perception of a fissure in relations with the US. In this context the Iranians may believe this is an opportune moment to attack Israel.
  • This government is now marking its first 100 days in power. It is facing calls from within the right wing to act more robustly in responding to attacks. Yet for now a more considered approach, endorsed by the security establishment, to avoid escalation is being adopted.
  • The tenure of Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, remains in doubt. Two weeks ago he was fired after warning of “clear, immediate and palpable danger” to Israel’s security as a result of the proposed reforms. The firing appears suspended for now and he remains in his role.
  • Despite media speculation over a US-Israel rift, Gallant spoke with US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin and in a reassuring move the US announced that it was deploying a guided missile submarine to the Gulf and an aircraft carrier to the eastern Mediterranean.

Looking ahead: The manhunt in the West Bank for the terrorist who killed the Dee sisters is ongoing.

  • An Iranian militia has warned of more planned attacks against Israeli owned vessels in the Gulf.
  • Israel has called up Border Police reservists to augment their defensive posture particularly in Jerusalem.
  • If the attacks on Israel continue there could be a larger call up of reserves.

March 20, 2023

Talks in Sharm, another shooting in Hawara

Officials from Israel, Palestinian Authority (PA), Egypt, Jordan and the US met in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh on Sunday.

  • Israel was represented on a professional level by the Director of the Shin Bet Security Service Ronen Bar and on a political level by the head of the National Security Council Tzachi Hanegbi.
  • The Palestinian delegation was led by PA Civil Affairs Minister Hussein al-Sheikh and head of Intelligence Majed Faraj.
  • Middle East adviser Brett McGurk represented the US alongside the foreign ministers of Jordan and Egypt.
  • According to Israeli media reports the Israeli delegation stressed the need to take uncompromising action against terrorism in order to prevent any escalation during and after Ramadan.
  • Israel and the PA reaffirmed their shared commitment to immediately refrain from taking unilateral action for a period of between three and six months. That includes an Israeli commitment to stop any discussion about building new housing units in the settlements for a four-month period, and to stop recognising unauthorised outposts for six months.
  • Efforts were also made to find a mechanism for Israel and the PA to cooperate and avoid any further deterioration in security for both Israelis and Palestinians.
  • The sides also agreed to establish a forum that would discuss Palestinian demands to receive tax funds that Israel has withheld after deducting the equivalent of terrorists’ salaries.
  • Meanwhile yesterday in Hawara a terrorist opened fire from point blank range at an Israeli car and injured a 30-year-old Israeli man alongside his wife.
  • The driver, David Stern, a resident of nearby Itamar settlement, who trains the security teams in the area, is also a US citizen and an ex-Marine. He managed to return fire and injure the terrorist, who dropped his gun and fled.
  • The injured terrorist was later found by IDF forces and taken for questioning.
  • On Saturday night a single rocket was fired from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory. It fell in uninhabited territory close to the border and no one was injured. The IDF retaliated by shelling a Hamas military outpost.
  • Also over the weekend a senior member of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) was assassinated near his home in Damascus.  Ali Ramzi Al-Aswad was a senior engineer in the PIJ military wing. Israel was blamed for his death.

This meeting in Sharm was the second regional summit focusing on Israeli – Palestinian arena following Aqaba conference at the end of February.

  • There remains a shared Israeli – PA agenda to deescalate the situation in the West Bank and on the Israeli side.
  • From the Palestinian perspective the purpose of the summit was to address their security concerns particularly related to limiting IDF incursions into Palestinian cities during Ramadan.
  • The Israelis are keen to fully re-establish security coordination with the PA Security Forces (PASF) and for the PASF to reassert themselves as they have recently begun to do in Nablus.
  • The US are also keen to see calm in the West Bank and thought to encourage Israel to take confidence building measures to improve economic conditions in the West Bank.
  • It is possible that the PIJ operative targeted in Damascus built the bomb that exploded in Megiddo junction last week.
  • Meanwhile over the weekend PIJ leader Ziyad al-Nakhalah met with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.  This meeting suggests further evidence of Iranian support via Hezbollah for Palestinian terror groups.
  • The rocket fired on Saturday night was the first in eleven days.  Already this year thirty-six rockets have been fired from Gaza Strip towards Israel.  Most have occurred following Palestinian fatalities as a result of an Israeli counter-terror operation in the West Bank.
  • In parallel, the Jerusalem municipality announced steps to help East Jerusalemites celebrate Ramadan. Street decorations can already be seen in the eastern part of the city,  The municipality has also distributed food vouchers for the poor and deployed extra street cleaning. They are planning to hold several sporting and cultural activities to keep youngsters engaged over the holiday.

IDF troops in the West Bank have completed their training and preparation ahead of Ramadan.

  • They remain on high alert, particularly in Hawara so as to prevent any vigilante responses from settlers.
  • Whilst the IDF remain on alert for potential attacks they will also be taking measures to facilitate freedom of worship for Palestinians to visit Al-Aqsa on the Temple Mount.
  • The agreements reached in Sharm are aimed at securing quiet in the months ahead.

February 27, 2023

Deadly riot in Huwara follows killing of two Israelis

  • Two Israelis were killed in a shooting attack yesterday near Huwara in the northern West Bank.
  • The victims, brothers Hallel Yaniv, 21 and Yagel Yaniv, 19, were residents of the settlement of Har Bracha. They were traveling on Route 60 when a Palestinian gunman opened fire from close range at their car and then fled the scene. An initial probe suggested the gunman took advantage of traffic to carry out the attack.
  • In the aftermath of the shooting, a group of settlers rioted in Huwara and other villages near Nablus. Palestinian medics reported that one man was killed while thirty homes were set on fire. Nine Palestinian families were rescued from their burning homes by Israeli security forces. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas condemned what he termed “the terrorist acts carried out by settlers under the protection of the occupation forces.” Some Israeli journalists criticised the IDF for not being more prepared to prevent the violence in Huwara by beefing up their forces in the village to separate the sides and reduce the violence.
  • State Department spokesman Ned Price said the US condemns the West Bank violence, “including the terrorist attack that killed two Israelis and settler violence, which resulted in the killing of one Palestinian, injuries to over 100 others, and the destruction of extensive property.”
  • Both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Isaac Herzog criticised the settler response to the shooting. “I am asking, while blood is boiling and winds are high – don’t take the law into your hands,” Netanyahu wrote, adding “I ask that you allow the IDF and security forces to do their work.” Herzog expressed his “forceful condemnation” writing that “taking the law into one’s own hands, rioting, and committing violence against innocents – this is not our way.”

The attack took place during a summit in Aqaba to discuss calming tensions, especially ahead of Ramadan, which this year partially overlaps with Passover.

  • The summit, the first time such a forum of four states plus the Palestinians has been convened, was attended by Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar and National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi, PA intelligence chief Majed Faraj, U.S National Security Council officials, and Jordanian and Egyptian security personnel.
  • Its announced outcomes included commitments on:
    • Establishing a joint committee to review renewed security coordination between Israel and the PA.
    • No new Israeli decisions on settlement construction for the next 4 months (the recent announcement to legalise nine unauthorised outposts and to build 9,500 new housing units in the West Bank would not be changed.)
    • Forming a joint civilian committee to advance confidence-building economic measures.
    • Encouraging the PA to reassert its security control in the heart of Palestinian population centres.
  • US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan welcomed the “commitments by the Government of Israel and the PA to de-escalate and prevent further violence. The two sides also affirmed their commitment to all previous agreements between them, and to work towards a just and lasting peace.”
  • Jordan’s foreign ministry says the Israeli and Palestinian representatives at the Aqaba summit agreed to work toward a “just and lasting peace” and affirmed the need to “commit to de-escalation on the ground.
  • There was disagreement over what had been agreed regarding settlement construction. The State Department said that both sides had “confirmed their joint readiness and commitment to immediately work to end unilateral measures for a period of 3–6 months” adding that “this includes an Israeli commitment to stop discussion of any new settlement units for 4 months and to stop authorization of any outposts for 6 months.”
  • Israel denied there was a general commitment to halt settlement expansion. Prime Minister Netanyahu tweeted that “Contrary to the tweets, the construction and regulation in Judea and Samaria will continue according to the original schedule, with no changes. There is and there will be no freeze.” Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich had previously said that he didn’t “know what was or was not talked about in Jordan…there is one thing I do know: there will not be any freezing of building and developments in settlements for even one day (and it’s under my authority).”

The manhunt for yesterday’s shooter continues. The IDF, Israel Police and Israel Border Police forces are currently operating in the Shomron Regional Brigade.

  • The IDF announced that following a situational assessment, it was decided to reinforce the Judea and Samaria Division with two additional battalions. Furthermore, as part of the expanding security activity in the city of Nablus, it was decided to increase the security checks on routes leading in and out of the city.
  • Another Israeli-Jordanian-Egyptian meeting is scheduled before Ramadan in order, according to an Israeli official “to examine progress in the security arena.”

February 9, 2023

CIA Director meets Abbas

CIA Director William Burns, returning from a trip which included meetings with Israeli officials and with Palestinian Authority head Mahmoud Abbas, has said he fears that current Israeli-Palestinian violence echoes the pattern of the Second Intifada.

  • “I was a senior US diplomat 20 years ago during the Second Intifada,” said Burns, “and I’m concerned – as are my colleagues in the intelligence community – that a lot of what we’re seeing today has a very unhappy resemblance to some of those realities that we saw then too.”
  • Meanwhile, five terrorists were confirmed killed in an IDF raid targeting members of a cell affiliated with Hamas’s al-Qassam Brigades in the Aqabat Jaber refugee camp, near Jericho, on Monday.
  • Troops entered the camp in pursuit of cell members believed to have carried out an attempted attack in Vered Yeriho, near the Almog junction, on January 28th, following which Israeli forces tightened restrictions around Jericho.
  • The Shin Bet and IDF Intelligence Directorate discovered that those responsible were in an apartment in the camp and planning further attacks.
  • Having identified the apartment, troops came under fire and responded in kind, killing gunmen, all of whom are thought to have belonged to the cell.
  • Troops also discovered a significant and sophisticated arsenal of weapons, many of which – including rifles equipped with sniper scopes, Carlo submachine guns, and pistols – are comparable with the IDF’s own weapons.
  • The targets of the mission having been killed, forces then withdrew from the camp in the face of hundreds of locals, some of them armed.
  • No Israeli casualties were reported, while Palestinian media shared footage of a seemingly downed Israeli Sky Rider drone.
  • The raid also netted the arrest of senior Hamas official Shaker Amara, as well as relatives of the Vered Yeriho attackers.
  • Yesterday, Israeli officials indicated their belief that a car which exploded in Jenin in Monday evening was a prematurely detonated car bomb planned for use in an attack in revenge for the Jericho mission.
  • In separate incidents, a 17-year-old member of the Lion’s Den terrorist group was killed during clashes with Israeli forces in Nablus on Tuesday, while 22 Palestinians were also arrested in the village of Burkin, west of Jenin. This follows the arrest by Israeli forces on Sunday of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) leader Khader Adnan in the village of Arrabeh, near Jenin, on Sunday.
  • Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem predicted that the Jericho raid would “fuel a revolution” amongst Palestinians.

The Hamas Jericho cell, calling itself the Aqabat Jaber Battalion, is a new phenomenon, with the Vered Yeriho incident indicating an escalation in a city previously noted for its relative quiet.

  • Last Saturday, the Aqabat Jaber Battalion publicly announced itself with a local parade and public statement.
  • Monday’s IDF mission followed a previous raid targeting members of the cell last Saturday, in which at least 13 Palestinians were injured.
  • While several arrests of cell members were secured in that mission, those responsible for the Vered Yeriho attack were not among them.
  • In response to Saturday’s raid, the Aqabat Jaber Battalion announced a “days of rage” period, encouraging locals to initiate conflict with Israeli troops. “Let us all make them days of fire against the occupation,” a statement said, calling on Palestinians to “pour out their anger against the occupation.”
  • In the attempted attack on January 28th, four members of the cell travelling in two cars sought to open fire close to a restaurant but fled when one of their M-16 rifles jammed.
  • The gun failure averted what could have been a major terrorist attack, with over 30 people dining in the restaurant at the time.
  • While the past year has seen multiple Israeli raids into the West Bank, as part of Operation Breakwater, such operations have tended to target unaffiliated individual suspects or else localised militia independent (at least formally) from both the Palestinian Authority’s dominant Fatah faction and Hamas. An operation targeting such a well-resourced Hamas cell inside the West Bank is therefore unusual.
  • The location of the raid is also significant. Jericho, in the PA-run Area A has previously been considered a place of comparative quiet and relatively secure PA control. Such a significant Hamas base of operations, together with Israel’s assessment that its neutralising required a unilateral operation, provide further proof of the decline in the PA’s influence in the West Bank and its ability to be considered a reliable security partner.
  • The PA also opted to suspend formal security cooperation with Israel in the wake of the IDF’s raid in Jenin on January 27th, though informal cooperation is known to have been ongoing since then.
  • The operation was notable for being conducted not by one of the IDF units usually designated with such a mission, but by its gender-integrated Lions of the Jordan Valley Battalion, formed in 2014.
  • The chief of the military’s Central Command, Maj. Gen. Yehuda Fuchs, commended the “commanders and troops who led the battle” as “an example of professionalism and leadership.” The operation will doubtless signify an important endorsement of mixed battalions at a time when they are under fire from ultra-Orthodox political figures.
  • Egypt has continued mediation between Israel and the Palestinian factions. On Saturday, PIJ Secretary-General Ziyad al-Nakhaleh met in Cairo with Abbas Kamel, Director of the Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate to discuss recent violence, especially in the PIJ stronghold of Jenin, while Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh is due to arrive in Cairo shortly.

Israel is braced for a violent response from Hamas.

  • With several members of the cell killed or arrested, quiet from Jericho might reveal that Hamas’s presence in the city has been fatally degraded.

January 29, 2023

Attack in Neve Yaakov

Attack in Neve Yaakov: Seven people were killed and at least three others injured in a shooting attack near the Ateret Avraham synagogue in Jerusalem’s Neve Yaakov neighbourhood on Friday evening.

  • Five victims were declared dead at the scene and another two succumbed to injuries after reaching local hospitals.
  • The shooter was later named as Alqam Khayri, 21, an East Jerusalemite with no prior record of terror activity.
  • Khayri arrived at the busy synagogue, around the end of Shabbat evening prayers. He first shot an elderly woman in the street before beginning shooting at worshipers emerging from the Synagogue. He then fled the scene by car and headed for the nearby Arab neighbourhood of Beit Hanina. When faced with police officers, Khayri opened fire before being shot dead.
  • Security officials told the Walla news site that Khayri had displayed considerable skill with a weapon and that they were investigating the possibility that he had received training.

The aftermath: On Saturday, Israeli police arrested over 40 of Khayri’s friends, acquaintances, and family members.

  • Meanwhile, widespread celebrations were seen in the Gaza Strip and in several West Bank cities, including Ramallah, Nablus and Jenin.
  • A second shooting attack occurred on Saturday morning. An Israeli father and son, were said to be in a serious but stable condition after being shot near the Old City of Jerusalem.  The Palestinian attacker, who was shot and wounded was identified as a 13-year-old Muhammad Aliyat.
  • There were two more attempted shooting attacks later on Saturday: One at Almog junction close to Jericho, where the assailants gun jammed, and a second attack thwarted at the entrance to the settlement of Kedumim.
  • US President Joe Biden called Netanyahu on Friday night. “The president made clear that this was an attack against the civilised world,” and “stressed the ironclad US commitment to Israel’s security,” the White House revealed.
  • Statements of support were also forthcoming from other Israeli allies including the UK and the UAE. A Jordanian statement condemned the attack but also included a thinly-veiled criticism of the Jenin operation.
  • Organisers of the anti-government protests on Saturday night decided that the demonstrations would begin with a minute’s silence for the victims of the terror attacks and would avoid the playing of music.
  • The Security Cabinet convened on Saturday night and announced a series of measures including:
    • “National insurance rights and additional benefits for the families of terrorists that support terrorism will be revoked.”
    • “Legislation on the revocation of Israeli identity cards of the families of terrorists that support terrorism will be discussed at tomorrow’s Government meeting.”
    • “Firearm licensing will be expedited and expanded in order to enable thousands of additional citizens to carry weapons.”
    • “In response to the abhorrent attacks and the celebrations in their wake, Prime Minister Netanyahu has decided on steps to strengthen settlement that will be submitted this week.”
  • Police also fear potential price tag revenge attacks against Arab Israelis. Prime Minister Netanyahu appealed for restraint in his immediate comments. “Our hearts are with the families,” he said. “I commend the police officers who took action so quickly. We must act with determination and composure. I call on people not to take the law into their own hands.”
  • On Sunday morning the mapping and sealing of Khayri’s home was expediated ahead of its demolition.
  • Five people remain hospitalised but in stable condition following the two attacks in Jerusalem.

The death toll of seven makes the Neve Yaakov attack the deadliest suffered by Israel since 2011, and the costliest Palestinian-perpetrated attack since 2008, when an East Jerusalemite terrorist killed eight Israelis at the city’s Mercaz Harav yeshiva.

  • No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, though Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad praised it as a response to Friday’s IDF raid in Jenin in which nine Palestinians, including seven combatants, were killed.
  • The first intifada (late 1980s) was characterised as a popular uprising and the second (from 2000) was notable for being led by organised terror organisations. This latest period which began in March 2022 has neither of those features and is led by localised cells and ‘lone wolf’ attackers.
  • Security experts are divided over the effectiveness of swift demolitions of terrorist homes; whether this disincentives future attacks or encourages them.
  • Since last March there have been several deadly terror attacks that have resulted in 30 Israelis killed. In the same period 150 Palestinians have also been killed, though over 90% were engaged in some form of combat.
  • The second attack’s perpetrator being a thirteen-year-old child is particularly shocking, both as testimony to his exposure to incitement and indoctrination as well as his ease of access to an illegal weapon.

The immediate period following lone wolf attacks is one of the most tense, as in the past deadly attacks have served as increased motivation for copycat attacks.

  • Kobi Shabtai, Israel’s police commissioner, ordered officers from the elite Yamam counterterrorism unit to deploy to Jerusalem after the two attacks.
  • IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, meanwhile, ordered extra troops to be stationed in the West Bank and along its security fence.
  • US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is due to arrive in Israel on Monday. Yesterday he said, “We mourn those killed in the attack, and our thoughts are with the injured, including children. The notion of people being targeted as they leave a house of worship is abhorrent.”

December 16, 2022

300 Palestinians arrested over alleged Hamas affiliation

Reports suggest around 300 Palestinians with alleged Hamas affiliation were arrested in the West Bank this week .

  • The arrests have been interpreted both as a sign of the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) insecurity over its weakening authority in the West Bank and as an effort to persuade the US and international community that it still remains in control.
  • Senior Hamas official Hussam Badran called the arrests a “stab in the back of the Palestinian national unity.”
  • While according to Lior Ackerman, senior fellow at the Institute for Policy and Strategy, Reichman University, “The PA of the end of 2022 is an entity without governance, very weak and lacking any vision or leadership strategy.”
  • According to the Palestinian Lawyers for Justice group, PA security forces have arrested or summoned for interrogation more than 500 Palestinian activists since the beginning of the year.
  • Also this week, Relatives of the Palestinian activist Nizar Banat announced that they are to file a case against Mahmoud Abbas’s PA at the International Criminal Court (ICC) over his death.
  • Banat, a long-time critic of the PA and Abbas, died following his arrest by Palestinian forces in June 2021. An autopsy showed he had suffered extensive beating.
  • Fourteen members of the PA security services were arrested over the incident, before being released on bail earlier this year.
  • The family’s case – which the ICC is not obliged to agree to hear – accuses seven PA figures of responsibility for Banat’s death.
  • It represents the first time the court has been presented with a case filed by Palestinians against Palestinians.
  • Hamas marked its 35th anniversary celebrations. Addressing the crowd remotely, Hamas’ military commander Mohammed al-Deif criticised the PA’s policy of security cooperation with Israel and called instead for support for the Lions’ Den group in Nablus, the Balata Brigades, and militia in Jenin with which Israel has been engaged in regular operations.
  • Yehiyeh Sinwar, Hamas’ leader in Gaza  said, “We have to give the chance to ignite the resistance in the West Bank.”
  • At the same event, Hamas displayed what it claimed was the assault rifle of Hadar Goldin, the Givati Brigade soldier killed in Gaza, along with his colleague Oron Shaul, during Operation Protective Edge in 2014.
  • Hamas retains both soldiers’ bodies and is also believed to be holding captive two Israelis: Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, both missing since crossing the border into Gaza in 2014 and 2015 respectively.
  • Sinwar also used his remarks to warn Israel that the window was rapidly closing for it to negotiate the return of Goldin and Shaul’s bodies.
  • In parallel the IDF this week also disclosed evidence of three rocket sites close to schools in Gaza City. According to their intelligence, staff at the Mo’ath Bin Jabal, the Khalil Al Nobani Secondary Female, and the Al-Furqan Public Schools were working in collaboration with Hamas.
  • An IDF statement said that the revelation provided further proof that Hamas ” uses the residents of the Gaza Strip, and in these cases innocent children, as human protectors.”

The week’s events show remaining hostility between Fatah and Hamas.

  • The events call into question the October reconciliation agreement, signed in Algeria by both Hamas and Fatah, designed to lessen conflict between the PA and Hamas.
  • Some Palestinian analysts speculated that Abbas had deliberately sought to sabotage the reconciliation talks.
  • Whilst the last few months have seen an increase in Israeli operations in the West Bank, relative quiet has prevailed on the Gazan front. However, in early December the IDF hit Hamas sites in Gaza in response to a single rocket fire directed at Southern Israel.
  • Although the rockets were thought to have been fired not by Hamas but by Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), Israel followed its policy of holding Hamas responsible for all terror emanating from Gaza.
  • Latest polling from the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) showed declining support for Abbas, with his decree forming a high council for the judiciary under his own control proving particularly unpopular.
  • Palestinian satisfaction (both West Bank and Gaza) with Abbas’s leadership was at 23%.
  • Other headline numbers from the poll showed substantial support for armed factions rival to the PA – 72% were in favour of independent groups like Lion’s Den.

The further erosion of PA control, together with increasing local popularity and Iranian support could see West Bank militias continue operations against Israelis, leading in turn to further Israeli raids in the West Bank under “Operation Breakwater”.

  • With Palestinian elections remaining a distant prospect, and with no clear succession plan for the 87-year-old Abbas, political disunity amongst the Palestinians is likely to continue.
  • Hamas deputy chief Khalil al-Hayya recently suggested that Algeria was set to host another series of reconciliation talks at the end of December.
  • Hamas’s failure to return the bodies of Goldin and Shaul make it unlikely that Israel will relax the opening of Gaza to humanitarian supplies and other material.

December 9, 2022

Counter-terror raid in Jenin yesterday

What happened? Three suspected Palestinian militants were killed during an Israeli counter-terrorism raid in a refugee camp in the West Bank city of Jenin yesterday.

  • The IDF said that its forces entered the camp to arrest terrorist suspect Khaled a-Hija when its troops came under “accurate fire” and responded in kind.
  • The local wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) later claimed responsibility for engaging Israeli troops with gunfire and explosives.
  • The dead have been named as Sidqi Zakarneh and Tariq al-Damej, both 29, and Atta Shalabi, 46
  • Khaled a-Hija was apprehended, as were suspects Ahmad Jaradat and Daajef Bages in other raids in Jenin.
  • The IDF confirmed that forces also conducted separate counter-terrorism raids in Bethlehem and in the West Bank towns of Abu Dis, Bitut, Silwad, Anata, Ein, Nabi Saleh, and Bayt Rima.
  • Further suspects were arrested in Hebron, Ramallah, Mahafiaa, Jabal Shamali and Bayt Furik, and illegal vehicles confiscated in the towns of Yata and Khirbet Carme.
  • Near the West Bank village of Aboud, 16-year-old Diaa Muhammad Shafiq al-Rimawi died in an incident in which the IDF says its troops opened fire after stones and bottles of paint were thrown at them.
  • Elsewhere in Jenin, troops arrested the father of Moujahid Mahmoud Hamed, who died after firing on an IDF post near the settlement of Ofra on Wednesday.
  • The IDF reported that no injuries to its troops were sustained during the various operations.

Jenin, in the Palestinian Authority-controlled Area A, has long been regarded as a hotbed of militant activity and is a frequent flashpoint for clashes between militants and the IDF.

  • Yesterday’s events echo similar incidents last week in which troops returned fire after being fired upon during an arrest raid in the city. Members of both PIJ and the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade were killed.
  • These incidents follow further fatal West Bank clashes between Palestinians and the IDF in the last month, including in Beit Ummar near Hebron, and in Beit Rima and Al-Mughayyir, both near Ramallah.
  • The past year has seen a significant increase in both Palestinian terrorism and Israeli counter-terrorism operations in the West Bank.
  • The period has seen over 280 terror attacks (up from 91 in 2021), claiming the lives of 30 Israelis.
  • GazaHaving long armed and supported both Hamas and PIJ in Gaza, Iran has turned greater attention to growing the capacity and influence of proxies in the West Bank in the last 12 months.
  • PIJ in the West Bank has received significant funding from Tehran, which it has used to establish a series of local battalions whose personnel includes members of other, ostensibly rival, Palestinian factions.
  • Late November saw the first bomb attacks in Israel since 2016, with explosives in two locations near the entrance to Jerusalem claiming the lives of two Israelis.
  • In the face of this increase in what the IDF terms “popular terrorism” emanating from the territory, it has responded with “Operation Breakwater”.
  • 3,000 arrests have been carried out and over 500 attacks thwarted, according to Israeli Military Intelligence.
  • Analysts estimate that around half of the IDF’s troop resources are currently allocated to addressing West Bank threats.
  • Some 150 Palestinians have been killed, the majority during clashes with the IDF.
  • There has also been a significant rise in nationalist-motivated crime by right-wing Israelis against Palestinians.

Despite ongoing security coordination between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, the pattern of the past year points to the latter’s declining authority in the West Bank.

  • Its policies of formal opposition to armed resistance and cooperation with Israel security are said to be reducing the Authority’s already waning popular appeal.
  • On Wednesday Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas issued a statement affirming, though with caveats, his commitment to these policies.
  • “Security coordination is a part of the agreements. When it comes to security coordination our approach is to fight terrorism no matter where,” Abbas said. “I do not support armed Palestinian resistance, but that could change. It could change — tomorrow, the next day or some other time. Everything changes.”
  • The influence of Hamas, PIJ, and other armed groups, meanwhile, continues to grow.
  • The impact of the likely appointments of far-right figures Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir to portfolios with authority over civilian administration in the West Bank and the West Bank Border Police, respectively, remains to be seen. Outgoing Defence Minister Benny Gantz recently warned of the chances of an even greater escalation accompanying Ben Gvir’s appointment.

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