The West Bank and Settlements 2

Updated September 4, 2025

Annexation removed from agenda

Exploring extending sovereignty: Prime Minister Netanyahu decided to remove the issue of extending Israeli sovereignty to parts of Judea and Samaria (West Bank) from the agenda of a meeting scheduled for later today.

The meeting had been called to discuss responses to the French, British and numerous other countries impending announcements to recognise a Palestinian state.
The meeting is now expected to focus on the security threats. There is concern that following unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly (UNGA) later this month there will be an eruption of violence in the West Bank.
This is partly anticipated due to the large discrepancy between symbolic diplomatic statements and the harsh reality on the ground that nothing has changed. Adding to this concern is the timing of UNGA coinciding with the Jewish High Holidays.
Security officials have continued to warn the political echelon of the weakness of the Palestinian Authority (PA), partly due to the economic measures taken by Israel.
Despite this, Palestinian sources reported that the PA’s security forces defused several roadside bombs in the Jenin area that had been placed in order to kill IDF troops.
As with all Israeli policy the position of the US administration is key. Their current posture is not against the principle of extending Israeli sovereignty, but over the timing. The Trump administration see this as part of their wider regional vision and as part of the day after once the Gaza war comes to an end. It is currently unclear to what extent the US will eventually back extending sovereignty.
The US currently supports Israel through backchannel diplomatic efforts to soften the French initiative. They are also preventing senior PA officials from attending the UNGA in New York.
A second crucial actor is the UAE. Emirati special envoy Lana Nusseibeh told the Times of Israel, “Annexation would be a red line for my government, and that means there can be no lasting peace. It would foreclose the idea of regional integration and be the death knell of the two-state solution.” The announcement of the Abraham Accords five years ago was predicated on Israel dropping its plans of annexation.
Inside Israel there are also a range of views over the extent that sovereignty should be extended. Some argue for a limited change, for example annexing the Etzion Bloc south of Jerusalem, which sits broadly as part of the Israeli consensus. Or the sparsely populated Jordan Valley, with important security ramifications.
With a more maximalist stance Finance Minister Smotrich declared in a press conference on Wednesday, “No to partial sovereignty. That will leave territory for the enemy and will allow it to establish a terrorist state—the 23rd Arab state that they want to establish here.” Adding, “The population in Judea and Samaria supports Hamas and the October 7 atrocities, with the aspiration to destroy the State of Israel. We have no desire to apply sovereignty over enemies. The principle in sovereignty is maximum territory and minimum population. Israeli sovereignty will be applied to 82 per cent of the territory.” Whilst the Palestinians in Area A will continue to administer themselves.
In an interview to a Belgian newspaper Foreign Minister Saar, spoke out against international recognition saying, “We have no intention of establishing a Palestinian state, that would clearly be a terrorist state. We already tried, by the way, 20 years ago, when we completely withdrew from the Gaza Strip, dismantling all our settlements, dismantling all our military bases, even the graves in the cemeteries. Afterwards, it clearly became the emergence of the most dangerous terrorist kingdom in the world. We will not do it again, we have learned the lesson.”

Latest Hamas statement dismissed as spin: On Wednesday Hamas released a statement saying, “We are ready to make a comprehensive deal, in the framework of which all of Israel’s hostages will be released in exchange for an agreed-upon number of Palestinian prisoners.”

Hamas conditions that demand a complete withdrawal of IDF troops from the Gaza Strip, the opening all the crossings and the start of reconstruction, are unacceptable to Israel.
At the same time Hamas did consent to “establish an independent national technocratic administration to run all the Gaza Strip’s affairs and to take immediate responsibility in all fields.”
Prime Minister Netanyahu said in response, “Unfortunately, this is more spin by Hamas and there’s nothing new about it. The war can end immediately under the terms set by the security cabinet.”
Those conditions are for all hostages to be released, Hamas is disarmed, the Strip is demilitarised, with Israel maintaining security control. Finally, “an alternative civil administration is established that does not educate for terrorism, dispatch terrorists or threaten Israel.”
Some Israeli analysts are interpreting the Hamas statement as a reflection of the pressure it is facing ahead of the IDF operation into Gaza City. However others have expressed concern that even the takeover over the capital city, however symbolic will not change the Hamas calculus.
There is also concern within the military that with the takeover of Gaza City the IDF that will have to take responsibility for civilian life.
The IDF continues to encourage Gazan civilians to leave the city for the humanitarian zone in the south, whilst Hamas continue to threaten and block their path. So far an estimated 80,000 people have left.
Humanitarian efforts continue, on Wednesday COGAT announced over 300 aid trucks entered Gaza. Additionally 380 were collected and distributed by the UN and international organisations.
In parallel families of hostages and activists have continued to protest the perceived reluctance of the Israeli government to pursue a deal. They have been calling to end the war and to bring back the 48 hostages who are still in Hamas captivity, twenty of whom are still thought to be alive.
The protest activity escalated significantly on Wednesday when a vehicle was torched in the heart of the upscale neighbourhood of Rehavia in Jerusalem.
Prime Minister Netanyahu issued a statement harshly condemning the protests, asserting that the demonstrators were paid and that they were threatening to murder him.

Houthis attacks persist: In the early hours of Thursday morning the Houthis launched another missile from Yemen. The missile fell in an uninhabited area outside Israeli territory.

On Wednesday, three missiles that were fired from Yemen, which were all intercepted. One of them carried multiple warheads.
Eight missiles have been fired from Yemen since Israel eliminated the Houthi prime minister and several of his cabinet ministers. Five of the missiles disintegrated en route and the rest were intercepted.

July 22, 2025

US Ambassador calls joint statement by foreign ministers ‘disgusting’

What’s happened: Foreign Ministers of 29 countries, including the UK, issued a joint statement yesterday on the situation in Gaza and the West Bank calling for an immediate end to the war and castigating Israel for the humanitarian situation in Gaza as well as for settlement activity in the West Bank.

Also yesterday, Foreign Secretary David Lammy spoke to Parliament about the situation in the Middle East, emphasising many of the same points made in the joint statement. In his comments, he referenced signing the statement with “31 Foreign Ministers,” a possible indication that some countries might have backed out at the last minute.
Lammy’s statement began with a short update on the situation in Syria, which condemned the violence in as-Suwayda this past week but studiously avoided taking sides.
The rest of his comments were devoted to the Israeli-Palestinian situation. Regarding the war in Gaza, Lammy’s position was clear: “The war in Gaza must end now. There is no military solution. Negotiations will secure the hostages. Further bloodshed serves no purpose. Hamas and Israel must both commit to a ceasefire now, and the next ceasefire must be the last ceasefire.”
The comments ended with a summary of actions taken by the Government on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in its year in office. Whether deliberately or not, the list of actions was decidedly unbalanced: restored UNRWA funding, suspended arms licences for Israel, humanitarian assistance for the Palestinians, sanctions packages on settlers, suspended trade negotiations with Israel, sanctions on far-right Israeli ministers, defences of international courts prosecuting Israel and Israeli leaders, and a “landmark agreement with the Palestinian Authority.”
Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement rejecting the joint statement, not just for its content but also for “sending the wrong message to Hamas” that international pressure on Israel could yield the benefits Hamas seeks more effectively than agreeing to release hostages. The joint statement, according to the Israeli MFA, “fails to focus the pressure on Hamas and fails to recognise Hamas’s role and responsibility for the situation. Hamas is the sole party responsible for the continuation of the war and the suffering on both sides.”
US Ambassador to Israel reacted to the joint statement on X stating: “Disgusting! 25 nations put pressure on Israel instead of savages of Hamas! Gaza suffers for 1 reason: Hamas rejects EVERY proposal. Blaming Israel is irrational.”

Context: Lammy told Parliament that “we are striving to keep open the prospects of a two-state solution,” and two sentences later boasted of restoring funding to UNRWA, seemingly without noticing the contradiction between the two positions. UNRWA is the agency that maintains the “refugee” status of Palestinians born in Palestinian territory living under Palestinian government.

Funding UNRWA doesn’t open the prospect of a two-state solution; it entrenches the Palestinian fantasy that justice can only be served when Palestinians can “return” to Israel and undo the existence of a Jewish state. The Palestinian demand for “return,” and not any Israeli insistence on settlements, was what torpedoed final status talks in all three rounds of negotiations that were held (2000-1, 2007-8, 2013-4).
Indeed, the gaps between the Israeli and Palestinian positions on which settlement areas would be evacuated and which annexed to Israel in territorial swaps were comparatively tiny and inconsequential to negotiations. But nothing in the joint statement nor in Lammy’s comments to Parliament yesterday addresses why there wasn’t a Palestinian state created in 2000 or 2008 (or for that matter 1948).
The claims about the controversial construction plan known as E1 are equally incoherent. The joint statement says that “the E1 settlement plan, if implemented, would divide a Palestinian state in two,” which is bad math and bad geography. A potential Palestinian state is already divided into two non-contiguous territories (Gaza Strip and West Bank).
Lammy’s statement is a bit clearer on the math, but just as muddled on the geography, claiming that E1 “would separate the West Bank’s north from its south,” but a glance at a map shows that this is entirely untrue, with the entire Jericho corridor still open (and the existing Israeli settlement of Maaleh Adumim still the easternmost area of Israeli settlement in the Jerusalem area).
If it were true that E1 could prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state, then it would behove supporters of such a state to press the Palestinians to act now and do what they refused to do in each previous round of negotiations, namely make peace with Israel. Nothing in either the joint statement or Lammy’s comments reckons with Palestinian decision making or preferences or even treats the Palestinian side of the conflict as an actor making decisions and shaping events.
Nowhere is this more apparent than in the discussion of the hostages. Both the joint statement and Lammy’s speech to Parliament address the continued captivity of Israelis abducted during the massacre of October 7 as something that can only be addressed by “negotiations,” a stark contrast to their claims regarding Israel’s supposed obligations on aid or territory.
“A negotiated ceasefire offers the best hope of bringing them home and ending the agony of their families,” is the way the joint statement addresses the issue, implying that Israel’s failure to meet the ransom demands of their captors is true moral failure, and not the abduction itself. Lammy goes even further in blaming Israel’s leader for the hostages’ plight: “This offensive puts them in grave danger, but still Netanyahu persists.”
In contrast, nothing in both statements implies that “negotiations” could secure aid for Gazans or stop Israel’s military offensive. These are presented as things that simply must happen without conditions and which the UK and other countries are prepared to take affirmative action to pressure Israel on.
If there is any action which the UK Government or Foreign Secretary Lammy have taken to put pressure on the hostage takers or the allied countries who host Hamas leaders, it went unmentioned in both statements. On the contrary, Qatar is singled out for praise in both statements, and Turkey is never referenced at all.
Another point that is missed in the calls for “negotiations” as the only means for liberating hostages is that negotiations are ongoing and have been ongoing for quite some time. As the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs response to the joint statement notes, “there is a concrete proposal for a ceasefire deal, and Israel has repeatedly said yes to this proposal, while Hamas stubbornly refuses to accept it.”
In every version of a proposed agreement, Israel has been willing to pay an exorbitant ransom — in released terrorists, territorial withdrawals, and more — for even partial hostage releases. And despite the implication of both statements that Israel’s position hasn’t allowed for an agreement, it is the Israeli position, not Hamas’, that has considerably moderated in recent weeks along several key points of dispute.
The statement also criticises the allegedly “dangerous” mechanism for aid delivery. However the work of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation is designed to circumvent Hamas expropriation of aid, that further perpetuates its control of the Strip. Earlier this week the GHF announced that it delivers around two million meals a day, and 82 million since it began.

Looking ahead: Lammy’s statement yesterday reaffirmed the UK’s commitment to a two-state solution without any reckoning with why that solution has not yet been effected on the ground. Moreover, it pledged the UK Government to a number of policies which make the establishment of Palestinian state next to Israel almost impossible.

“Hamas and Israel must both commit to a ceasefire now, and the next ceasefire must be the last ceasefire,” according to Lammy. This is a demand to end the war with Hamas still in control of the Gaza Strip. No path to statehood exists with the Palestinian Territories governed by two competing governments, one of them a jihadist terrorist organisation. And no path to peace exists with Hamas still standing, newly legitimised by the international community, and regrouping and mobilising for the next October 7.
Funding for UNRWA is not funding for a Palestinian state, but rather funding against one. An investment in the refugee status of Palestinians in Palestinian territory does nothing for the upbuilding of a future state; it only ensures another generation of irredentism, rejectionism, and war.

July 8, 2025

Netanyahu and Trump coordinate future moves

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu arrived in Washington and had dinner with President Trump in an event that was not open to media.

Before the meeting, Trump announced that talks on a new nuclear deal with Iran were scheduled and he once more pledged to do everything to ensure Iran would not acquire nuclear weapons. “We have scheduled Iran talks,” he said, “and they want to talk. They took a big drubbing, I think, when we hit the three sites, really, I would say the three sites, not just the one. The one was a big one.”
Israeli officials in Washington briefing journalists claimed that talks in Doha on a new hostage deal were reaching a conclusion. One much quoted anonymous source said that the deal was “80 to 90 percent agreed on.” In other places, the quote, attributed to a senior official briefing reporters on the flight to Washington, was that Israel had achieved “80 to 90 percent” of its goals in the negations in Doha.
Kan News’ diplomatic correspondent Suleiman Maswadeh reported from Washington that according to Israeli sources there it was possible that an agreement would not be signed this week but rather next. Maswadeh further reported that the delays last week were caused by Hamas rejecting the Witkoff framework, and that Hamas categorically rejected the conditions that might have led to an immediate release of all hostages, rather than the emerging framework for a partial release during the ceasefire.

Gaza: Five IDF soldiers were killed and fourteen others injured yesterday in an incident in Beit Hanoun, in the northern Gaza Strip.

All five served in the Netzah Yehuda Battalion of the Kfir Brigade. They were identified as Staff Sergeant Meir Shimon Amar, 20, from Jerusalem; Sergeant Moshe Nissim Frech, 20, from Jerusalem; Sergeant First Class (res.) Benyamin Asulin, 28, from Haifa; Staff Sergeant Noam Aharon Musgadian, 20, from Jerusalem; and Staff Sergeant Moshe Shmuel Noll, 21, from Beit Shemesh.
37 soldiers have been killed since the end of the ceasefire in March this year. 888 IDF soldiers have been killed in total since the war began on October 7, 2023.
The deadly incident in Beit Hanoun occurred roughly one kilometre from the border fence in an area that has been in full control of the IDF since the ground operation began in late October 2023 — including during the two ceasefires. Army Radio reports that it is still unclear how a terrorist squad was able to operate in the area, to plant at least four explosive devices that were remotely detonated.
In Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip, IDF Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir met with troops and reiterated his commitment to the war’s two principal objectives, defeating Hamas and liberating the hostages. “Alongside Iran, the central theatre is in Gaza. We are determined and we will lead here to victory… All roads lead to one place: hostages and victory.”

Context: The talks in Washington are focused on the hostage deal, the anticipated nuclear talks with Iran and wider regional moves towards normalisation between Israel and Sunni Arab states.

Talks in Doha dealt not just with the proposed 60-day ceasefire and partial hostage release, but with some general terms regarding the end of the war that would be negotiated during the ceasefire. Leaks to Israeli media suggest that the Israeli Government still rejects a role for the Palestinian Authority in the Strip after the war. “There will be another force in the Strip that will include Palestinians, for sure, but not the PA,” according to the senior Israeli official briefing reporters on the flight to Washington.
Israel Hayom claims that Prime Minister Netanyahu rejected proposals from Washington that would have included a rhetorical commitment to a Palestinian state as a way of securing a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia. According to the report, the Prime Minister’s position remains that Palestinian statehood “was permanently removed from the table in the wake of the October 7 massacre.”
The US lifted sanctions against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the organisation that was led by Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa until he seized power in the country. As of June 23, the organisation is no longer designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation by the US State Department.
On a visit to Damascus on Saturday, the Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, also announced that the UK would be resuming diplomatic ties with Syria. Despite this, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham remains a proscribed organisation.
American mediated talks seek to reach an agreement between Israel and Syria. US officials are reported to believe that an agreement with Syria will soften Netanyahu’s position on Gaza and allow him to make concessions during the negotiations to end the war during the ceasefire he might otherwise have struggled to push through politically.
Lebanon, too, is looking to reach an agreement with Israel. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam announced that he seeks a security arrangement with Israel which would see the latter fully withdraw from Lebanese territory and commit Lebanon to disarming Hezbollah.
Besides the regional peace initiatives, another goal of the Prime Minister’s visit in Washington is to secure US commitments on Israel’s interests in Iran. Specifically, the Prime Minister reportedly wants US support for a future attack on Iran should the Islamic regime either move its stockpile of highly enriched uranium or rebuild the core facilities damaged by Israeli and US air strikes in June, including not just those related to its nuclear programme but also its missile production sites.
Additionally, Israeli officials seek a US commitment to demand zero enrichment on Iranian soil as a condition for any future nuclear agreement, a position the Trump administration was deliberately ambiguous about in the earlier negotiations conducted in the spring of this year.

Looking ahead: Defence Minister Yisrael Katz has asked the IDF to prepare a “humanitarian city” to be built on the ruins of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip

A key indicator of progress in the hostage talks will be when US envoy Witkoff joins the talks in Doha.
Netanyahu will remain in Washington for at least two more day: Later today, he will meet Vice President JD Vance and Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson. Tomorrow, he is scheduled to meet with Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth and on Thursday with leaders of the Jewish community. Sources in the prime minister’s entourage said there is no intention of extending the visit to the US into the weekend this time.

June 11, 2025

Israel, US push back on UK announcement to sanction ministers

What’s happened: The UK announced sanctions against two far-right Israeli cabinet ministers, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.

The announcement was made in a joint statement by Foreign Secretary David Lammy and the foreign ministers of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Norway. The sanctions include an asset freeze and a travel ban.
The new joint statement justified the measures by alluding to acts of settler violence in the West Bank and accusing the two sanctioned ministers of directly inciting it. However, the ministers went on to confirm their commitment to Israel.
The move was condemned by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who wrote “We reject any notion of equivalence: Hamas is a terrorist organization that committed unspeakable atrocities, continues to hold innocent civilians hostage, and prevents the people of Gaza from living in peace. We remind our partners not to forget who the real enemy is. The United States urges the reversal of the sanctions and stands shoulder-to-shoulder with Israel.”
In Israel, the move was condemned by government ministers, and some opposition figures, including Benny Gantz, who wrote “I vehemently disagree with Ministers Smotrich & Ben-Gvir on a wide range of issues – but the imposition of British sanctions on Ministers in the one and only democracy in the Middle East the State of Israel is a profound moral mistake and sends a dangerous message to terrorists around the world. While the State of Israel defends itself as an outpost of the free world from murderous terror groups & regimes in the region – pressure should rather be directed at Hamas, Iran and its axis of evil.”
Foreign Minister Gideon Saar went further in his criticism, noting that this move, like various other gestures designed to pressure Israel, strengthen Hamas: “The political pressure on Israel, which manifests itself in various ways, has one goal: to bring about an end to the war without achieving its goals, while Hamas still controls Gaza and continues to endanger Israel’s security. This is pressure, well planned and timed, that includes a series of moves by various countries, decisions in international forums, and proceedings in the so-called ‘international courts.’ The actions and decisions against Israel also contribute to hardening Hamas’ stance in the negotiations for the hostage deal – and distance it and the ceasefire.”
This morning he reportedly refused to accept a phone call from his counterpart David Lammy.
The joint statement reiterates that the sanctions “do not deviate from our unwavering support for Israel’s security and we continue to condemn the horrific terror attacks of 7 October by Hamas.  Today’s measures are targeted towards individuals who in our view undermine Israel’s own security and its standing in the world. We continue to want a strong friendship with the people of Israel based on our shared ties, values and commitment to their security and future.”

Context: This latest announcement follows a series of actions by Lammy and Prime Minister Starmer indicating a harder line on Israel, including suspensions of some weapons exports, ending free trade talks, and a previous joint statement with Canada and France condemning Israeli actions in Gaza, which was praised the next day by Hamas.

Individual sanctions of this sort were previously announced for some Russian officials. It’s highly unusual for such action to be taken against ministers in an allied government, and no such action has been considered for officials from Turkey and Qatar, with regimes with close ties to the UK who openly back Hamas.
Though the announcement is billed as a direct response to Israeli actions on the West Bank, it is the war in Gaza, and frustration with Israel’s conduct of the war, that is largely driving the move. The joint statement mentions the war in Gaza only in the last paragraph and reiterates the three principles that have been largely in consensus among western governments regarding the war since it began: access to aid must be unfettered; displacement of population constitutes “unlawful transfer”; and no territorial loss for Gaza can be accepted.
Critics in Israel and elsewhere hold that all three principles are bespoke inventions for this war and exist nowhere in international law or practice — and that they remove any leverage Israel might have to pressure Hamas to release the hostages it took on October 7, while trapping civilians inside a war zone, making attacking Hamas targets more difficult and granting Hamas a propaganda victory when any attack is carried out.
Settlements and settlers are extremely unpopular in western diplomatic circles, and are widely viewed as Israel’s biggest contribution to the absence of peace in the region. The issue of settlements did not figure in the failure of final status talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority in the past 25 years. In all rounds, Israel agreed to evacuate most settlements in exchange for minor adjustments to the pre-1967 borders to accommodate three blocs of settlements built close to the line. Each round of talks collapsed when the Palestinians turned down offers of statehood conditioned on a full reconciliation and termination of claims, particularly on the refugee issue. Settlements were simply not the reason why peace talks failed or why a two-state solution was not effected.
Nor were settlements the reason for the October 7 attack and the subsequent war. There were no settlements in Gaza when Hamas launched its attack. All Gaza settlements were evacuated in 2005 when Israel withdrew from the 20% of the Strip still under its control under the terms of the Oslo Accords. And despite the war raging for 20 months now, and the IDF placing under its direct control large swathes of territory in the Gaza Strip, not a single settlement has been established anywhere in Gaza, not even in areas that were designated for Israeli control under the Oslo agreements.
Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich head two far-right religious nationalist parties which ran together on a joint list in the most recent elections and secured 14 seats in Israel’s 120-member Knesset. Recent polls show Ben-Gvir’s party at roughly nine seats and Smotrich’s failing to cross the electoral threshold, making their participation in the future government less likely.

Looking ahead: The Israeli government will soon convene to formulate a response.

Opposition parties announced this morning that they would table a motion to dissolve parliament and hold early elections. This comes on the backdrop of a crisis in the governing coalition around draft exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox community. The ultra-Orthodox parties have threatened to bolt the coalition if they are not granted significant concessions in a draft law, while one Likud lawmaker, Yuli Edelstein, has blocked the legislation that would open to the path allowing exemptions to continue.
For the opposition, the decision to bring the motion up for a vote now is a dilemma. If it fails, a new motion to dissolve the Knesset cannot be introduced for another six months.
For the ultra-Orthodox parties who are threatening the coalition, the stakes are just as high. If they carry out their threat and topple the government, they may very well find themselves in opposition in the next Knesset.

May 15, 2025

West Bank shooting kills heavily pregnant woman

What’s happened: A pregnant Israeli woman on her way to the hospital to deliver her baby was shot dead in a drive by terrorist attack outside Bruchin, a settlement in the northern West Bank located between Ariel and Petach Tikvah. Her husband was also wounded in the attack.

Tzeela Gez, a 30-year-old mother of three, was rushed to the hospital in critical condition. Doctors were able to deliver her fourth child in an emergency C-section. She died of her wounds this morning.
Following the attack the IDF launched an intensive manhunt for the perpetrators of the attack. This morning there are reports of heavy exchanges of gunfire in the Palestinian village of Tamoun, north east of Nablus.
Meital Ben Yosef, chairwoman of the Bruchin settlement, where Tzeela Gez lived until her murder, mourned her loss. “Our hearts are broken,” she said this morning. “The entire community of Bruchin is grieving and pained over the murder of our friend Tzeela in this horrific terror attack. We send our heartfelt condolences to the Gez family and pray for a full recovery for the father of the family. Once again, we are forced to pay a blood price simply for being Jews living in our land. But our brothers’ blood will not be forfeit—we will continue to build, to cling to the land and to increase light and life here in Bruchin and throughout the land.”
Reactions to the murder of a pregnant woman on her way to give birth have been, predictably, heated. Yossi Dagan, chairman of a regional council of West Bank settlements called for the IDF to destroy the villages where the terrorist had come from. “The IDF needs to go in, just like it goes into Deir al-Balah, just like it goes into Khan Younis. We need to flatten that area there.” Deir al-Balah and Khan Younis are cities in Gaza that have been scenes of destructive battles since the October 7 war began in 2023. Regarding the villages dotting the road where the shooting attack happened, Dagan said, “this area should be like Jabalya,” referencing another part of the Gaza Strip which has been the scene of intense fighting and destruction.
President Herzog released a statement referring to the murder as, “a spine-chilling, horrific act of terror that shakes us to the core. At the very moment life was about to begin, life was taken in the most brutal way.”

Context: Whilst Israel remains engaged in fighting on several fronts, this attack is a brutal reminder of the terror threat emanating from the West Bank.

On January 21^st, two days into the Gaza ceasefire, the IDF launched Operation Iron Wall in the West Bank, targeting terrorists in the northern West Bank, with a particular focus on Jenin and Tulkarem cities. This operation, and a similar but smaller one in 2024, constitute the most significant incursions of Israeli forces into Palestinian-controlled areas of the West Bank since the large operations 2002-2003 which successfully defeated the Second Intifada and brought to an end the campaign of Palestinian suicide bombings of the 1990s and early 2000s.
According to the Shin Bet, since October 7^th 2023, 64 Israelis have been killed in terror attacks emanating from the West Bank.
According to Palestinian sources, 102 Palestinian have been killed in the operation, over 80 of whom Israel assesses to be actively involved in terror activity. More than 6,000 Palestinians have been arrested in the West Bank over that same period.
Violence in the West Bank has been mostly contained since the October 7th massacre. No terror attack, no military operation, and no act of settler violence has (as of yet) been the spark that sent both sides spiralling into the kind of uncontrolled violence remembered by all from the Second Intifada years of the early 2000’s.
The ongoing security cooperation between the IDF and the Palestinian Authority (PA) has been a crucial part of that. At the same time, the release of so many Hamas prisoners back into the West Bank as part of the ceasefire deal which freed Israeli hostages in Gaza earlier this year has strengthened the hand of the jihadist groups who are interested in raising the temperature in the West Bank, if only to draw away some Israeli forces from the fighting in Gaza.
The murder of a pregnant woman is likely to provoke particularly strong emotional reactions, and it comes at particularly combustible time. Today, May 15th, is the day Palestinians mark the anniversary of the Nakba, the Arabic word for catastrophe which is conventionally used to describe Israel’s creation and the Arab defeat in the 1948 war.
The will be heightened concern over the prospect of revenge attacks by settlers that sometimes take the form of arson. Over Friday and Saturday, Israel is forecasted to experience a short but extreme bout of hot and dry weather, making the danger even greater than it would already be.
In parallel, President Trump continues his diplomatic push in the Gulf region. Bilateral agreements worth hundreds of billions of dollars have already been announced, and yesterday he met with Ahmed al-Sharaa, the leader of Syria. Breakthroughs on three multilateral efforts — a hostage and ceasefire deal on Gaza, a nuclear deal with Iran, and a regional normalisation deal with Saudi Arabia — continue to be hinted at by Trump’s entourage, though there is no public agreement on any of them yet.

Hostage negotiations: Prime Minister Netanyahu met with the president’s envoy Witkoff again yesterday, before Witkoff flew to Qatar to join President Trump.

According to an Egyptian report Witkoff met with a delegation of senior Hamas officials, including Muhammad Darwish, Khalil al-Hayya and Zaher Jabarin last night. If true, this would make Witkoff the most senior US official to have ever directly engaged with Hamas officials. This follows Adam Boehler, the US envoy for Hostage Response who also met Hamas leaders earlier this year.
Although it is not confirmed if Mohammad Sinwar was eliminated in an Israeli air strike on Tuesday, the attack could delay any immediate progress.
The potential deal being presented is based on the Witkoff proposal that has been circulating for over a month and appears to have the buy in from the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
The broad outline appears to be:
- Around half of the hostages are to be released within a few days and negotiations for the full end of the war will begin.
- During the negotiations, Hamas will release all of the Israeli hostages, including the bodies of those killed. In return, Israel will release Palestinian terrorists in keeping with the prisoners-for-hostages ratio that has been used to till now.
- The delivery of humanitarian aid to the civilian population in the Gaza Strip will be resumed, according to the US plan.
- Following the return of all the hostages, Israel will end its military operations.
- At this point Hamas should surrender its weapons, and senior military commanders will be exiled from the Strip. Reconstruction will begin (and along with Trump’s plans) Gazans will be given the opportunity to leave, with priority given the wounded and the ill.
- The reconstruction and management of Gaza will be led by an Arab regional coalition, alongside the US and European partners.
- Only once the Palestinian Authority has undergone substantive structural reforms will it be brought into the managing coalition.
- As an incentive, Saudi Arabia as well as other countries, possibly including Syria and Lebanon could normalise relations with Israel. Implementation of this deal might pave the way for a Nobel Peace Prize for Trump.

April 30, 2025

UK backs Palestinian Authority with MoU

What’s happened: In London, the UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy and the Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Strategic Cooperation.

The document outlines in very general terms the commitments of the two governments to cooperate on a range of issues, including climate change, gender, culture, and education.
It commits both sides to diplomatic solutions in line with UN Security Council resolutions without referencing any specific ones.
In the memorandum, the UK “reiterates the centrality of the Palestinian Authority as the only legitimate governing entity in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including in Gaza,” obliquely rejecting the status quo since 2007 of a separate Hamas-led government in Gaza.
The document makes repeated references to Palestinian statehood as a goal and to the 1967 lines as the basis for a future international border, and includes East Jerusalem as part of the West Bank.
The Memorandum includes a Palestinian commitment to hold Presidential and Parliamentary elections “within the shortest feasible timeframe,” and stipulates that such elections must include the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip, implicitly extending the feasible timeframe well into the distant future. No such election has been held in two decades. The last one was called in 2021, but it was cancelled by the Palestinian Authority (PA) itself. Mahmoud Abbas has ruled as President of the PA since the last elections in 2005, extending his mandate well beyond his original four-year term.
While the Palestinian Authority’s Prime Minister was in London, the newly appointed Vice President of the PLO, Hussein Al-Sheikh, travelled to Riyadh to meet top Saudi officials to discuss what is widely believed to be an upcoming American diplomatic initiative to be unveiled by President Trump during his scheduled trip to Saudi Arabia.

Context: Since the October 7^th massacre, there has been a campaign afoot in various European states to recognise Palestinian statehood unilaterally, without a peace agreement. This was done despite the fact that there are two competing governments in these territories: one led by Fatah from Ramallah and one by Hamas from Gaza. Norway, Spain, and Ireland have already carried out such a recognition, and France has indicated that it may do so as well this summer.

To that end, the MoU’s reference to the “importance of recognition as a contribution to the two-state solution” can be read as an indication that the UK Government is considering a similar move.
Signing MoU with the PA could be viewed as an attempt by the Labour government to solidify its position prior to the incoming local elections across England as they face opposition from pro-Gaza Independents in some areas.
A Palestinian state has not come into being in the various rounds of final status talks since the Oslo Accords (Camp-David / Clinton Parameters and Taba negotiations in 2000-1, the Annapolis talks in 2007-8, and the Kerry negotiations in 2013-4) not because Israel or the international community has refused one, but because each time the Palestinian side rejected the prospect of statehood if the price of statehood was full reconciliation with the presence of a neighbouring Jewish state and the termination of all claims and conflict.
In particular, the Palestinian side at these negotiations demanded a “right of return” for the descendants of refugees from the 1948 war.
Recognising a state now that has not been formed and does not in fact exist would not change the reality on the ground for the Palestinians; only a full peace agreement with Israel can do that. But it would set the stage for even more abuses of the international system, in particular international courts, for hostile actions against Israel.
Al-Sheikh’s appointment last week as a deputy to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas puts him in an advantageous, but far from guaranteed, position to succeed the ailing Palestinian President. He is seen as close to the Saudis and someone both Israeli and Western officials have worked well with in the past.
Abbas’ appointment of a deputy and, by implication, a favoured candidate for succession comes a week after his much reported condemnation of Hamas and his demand that they release the hostages and end Gaza’s suffering.

Looking ahead: In any negotiated settlement for an Israeli-Palestinian peace, the two sides will have to come to an agreement on the well-known list of final status issues: sovereignty, borders, Jerusalem, security, refugees, and settlements.

It is notable that the UK position as expressed in this memorandum predetermines the outcome of the first three, and all in line with the Palestinian and not the Israeli position.
In Israel it is widely believed that a Palestinian state on the West Bank, especially one proclaimed and recognised without a peace agreement with Israel, will quickly become a Hamas stronghold, rendering all of Israel’s population centres threatened with rocket attacks and October 7-style rampages, as happened following Israel’s withdrawal of settlers and soldiers from Gaza. Moreover, the dangling of a symbolic gesture such as recognition as a reward not for peacemaking but for an enormity like October 7^th incentivises more violence, more rejectionism, and more war.

January 22, 2025

Israel launches major counter-terror operation in Jenin

What’s happened: An operation involving the IDF and the Shin Bet began yesterday in Jenin with coordinated drone strikes on terrorist infrastructure. The IDF said that the operation, named “Iron Wall,” will continue “as long as necessary.”

Prime Minister Netanyahu said the operation constitutes “a further step toward achieving the goal we set – strengthening security in Judea and Samaria…Israel is acting systematically and decisively against the Iranian Axis wherever it extends its reach – in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Judea and Samaria.”
Defence Minister Katz said that the operation reflects the “first lesson” learned from the IDF’s repeated raids in the Gaza Strip: the importance of eliminating terrorists and destroying terror infrastructure in Jenin “without the recurrence of terrorism within the city…We will not allow the Iranian octopus arms or radical Sunni Islam to jeopardise the lives of the settlers [in the West Bank] or to establish a terror front to the east of Israel.”
Palestinian sources report ten killed and 40 wounded.
Last night, a lone wolf terrorist carried out a stabbing attack on a crowded Tel Aviv street. The assailant, a Moroccan citizen with permanent residency in the United States, was shot to death after stabbing four Israeli civilians. This came only days after a similar stabbing attack nearby.
Also yesterday, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi announced his resignation. Taking full responsibility for the IDF’s operational failures on October 7th, Halevi joins a number of senior security officials who have either resigned or announced their intention to resign following the Hamas attacks. In a public statement, Halevi said “I will carry the responsibility for the terrible failure with me for the rest of my life.”

Context: Israel has launched at least ten offensive operations in Jenin over the course of 2024. In recent weeks, however, the IDF largely held back as the Palestinian Authority (PA) itself mounted an unusually large operation against terror organisations in the city.

The return of the IDF, publicly condemned by the PA, could be interpreted as a tacit division of labour between Israeli and the PA, or a signal of frustration on the part of the Israelis with the Palestinian operation.
Israeli sources reported that the operation was launched to deal with an imminent threat. The frequency and increasing sophistication of attacks against Israelis in the northern West Bank around both Jenin and Nablus have been a cause for concern for Israel. Last week an IED on a roadside between Jenin and Nablus killed an Israeli reservist and wounded four other soldiers, including a senior officer.
Monday saw violence involving radical settlers, ostensibly in protest of the Gaza ceasefire with attacks targeting a Palestinian village which had been the scene of a fatal shooting attack in early January which killed 3 Israelis.
Hamas is keen to see a new front opened in the West Bank, which is not covered by the ceasefire, in order to weaken the Palestinian Authority and draw Israeli forces and attention away from Gaza.
One aspect of the Gaza ceasefire that strengthens Hamas in the West Bank is the release of Hamas terrorists into the West Bank as part of the hostage deal. One explanation for the timing of this operation is to eradicate terrorist infrastructure ahead of their release.
The attack in Tel Aviv by a tourist is a rare example of ‘tourist terrorism.’ Border inspectors at Ben Gurion Airport suspected him, sent him to be questioned to security officials, who ultimately approved his entry. The Shin Bet said that it decided that there was no reason to ban his entry into the country and that the matter would be investigated. In April 2003, two British tourists, Asif Muhammad Hanif and Omar Khan Sharif, carried out a suicide bombing a bar in Tel Aviv, which killed three civilians and wounded 50.

Looking ahead: The West Bank is the one arena of conflict where violence has been relatively contained since October 2023, but the potential for a full-scare eruption remains. Both the IDF and PA have every interest in keeping a lid on violence, and they have just barely succeeded in doing so over the past 14 months. There is no guarantee that they will continue to do so indefinitely.

As Hamas has seen its allies weakened in Lebanon, Iran, Syria, and as its own forces have been decimated in Gaza, the West Bank remains its most untapped source of firepower on Israel. “That’s the only front where they see a potential,” the long-time observer of Palestinian affairs Ehud Yaari told the New York Times

January 6, 2025

Three killed in West Bank terror attacks

West Bank shooting: Three people were killed and six wounded in a shooting attack this morning near Kedumim, after shots were fired at private vehicles and a bus.

The attack occurred in the village Funduk when two terrorists armed with rifles shot at two private Israeli vehicles and a bus.
Magen David Adom ambulance service pronounced three of the victims dead. Two of the victims are women in their sixties who were traveling in one car, and the third is a man on board the bus.
Video footage shows a gunman firing at the bus from inside a car, allowing the terrorists to flee the scene.
The IDF has launched a manhunt, with the assumption that they fled to one of the neighbouring Palestinian villages in the area. As such roadblocks have been placed in the area to prevent their escape.

November 12, 2024

Israelis injured in al-Khader

Two Israelis were injured during an IDF counterterrorism activity in the area of al-Khader when a Palestinian vehicle drove into a checkpoint and carried out a ramming attack.

Following the US election, some on the Israeli right view it as an opportunity to revisit annexation of the West Bank. Finance Minister Smotrich commented yesterday saying, “Trump’s victory brings with it an important opportunity for the State of Israel. We were but a pace’s distance from applying sovereignty to the settlements in Judea and Samaria, and now the time has arrived to do that. 2025 is the year of sovereignty in Judea and Samaria. That is our answer to Sinwar, may his name and memory be obliterated. The new Nazis need to pay a price in territory that will be taken from them forever both in Gaza and in Judea and Samaria.”
Others, even within the settler movement, criticised these comments as being divisive among Israelis. Instead, better to focus first on returning Israelis to their homes in the north and south.

October 7, 2024

One year on and Iranian proxies continue to attack Israel

Israel has commemorated the one-year anniversary of Hamas’s October 7^th attacks, as it continues military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, while coming under rocket and missile fire from Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.

Sirens sound this morning in Haifa, Acre and several surrounding towns and villages after a barrage of around 100 rockets were fired from Lebanon so far this morning.
Hezbollah launched 190 projectiles yesterday, including at civilian population centres in Tel Aviv and Haifa. Hezbollah claimed that it targeted the Glilot army base where the IDF’s 8200 signals intelligence unit is headquartered. The IDF says that five rockets were launched in the attack, some of which were intercepted and the rest struck open areas, causing no injuries or major damage.
Military operations against Hezbollah are continuing, with focus on southern Lebanon, and the Dahiya suburb of Beirut. A fourth army division has been deployed to southern Lebanon with the IDF stating it is conducting “limited, localised and targeted operations” in the area.
The IDF announced that it killed the head of Hezbollah’s logistical headquarters, Suhail Hussein Husseini in an airstrike on Beirut. Husseini, a member of Hezbollah’s Jihad Council, participated in weapon transfers between Hezbollah and Iran and was responsible for distributing the advanced weaponry among Hezbollah’s units. Further airstrikes were also conducted on Hezbollah targets in the more northern Beqaa Valley.
The Iranian foreign minister warned Israel against retaliating for its attack against Israel last week adding that any attack on Iran’s infrastructure would be met with a stronger response.
The IDF successfully intercepted a surface to surface ballistic missile fired at central Israel from Yemen. Sirens sounded across the centre of the country, but no injuries or damage was reported.
The Houthis claimed responsibility for this attack, saying that two missiles were fired at Israel as well as numerous drones targeting Eilat and Jaffa.
One Israeli soldier has been killed in the IDF’s latest operations in the northern Gaza Strip with another soldier suffering serious injuries in the same incident. His death marks the IDF’s 350^th fatality since launching the ground operation last October.
The IDF said that 20 Hamas operatives were killed in the past day during a new IDF operation in northern Gaza’s Jabaliya.
Hamas also targeted central Israel with a barrage of rocket fire while October 7^th commemorations took place. While mostly intercepted, shrapnel falling caused some damage to a property in Kfar Chabad where it also lightly wounded two women.
After weeks of silence, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has reestablished contact with hostage-ceasefire deal mediators in Qatar while former Hamas politburo chief, Khaled Mashaal told Reuters that the group would rise “like a Phoenix”, and that it continues to recruit fighters and manufacture weapons.

Context: Israel marked the anniversary of the October 7^th attack in two separate national ceremonies last night.

The first was held in Hayarkon Park in Tel Aviv, crowd-funded and organised by some of the victims’ families. It was originally expected to host 40,000 spectators, but due to the expanded range of recent rocket attacks, the capacity was reduced to fewer than 2,000.
The second, formal government-organised commemoration was held in an amphitheatre in Ofakim and pre-recorded several days ago. It was broadcast immediately after the first ceremony ended.
Both ceremonies included survivors’ testimony and musical accompaniment as well as reflecting a full range of Israeli society with messages of solidarity and unity. However the fact that two ceremonies were deemed necessary speaks largely to the continued anger and resentment felt my many over the government’s failure to take full responsibility into the disaster and its foot dragging in launching a state commission of enquiry into the disaster.
There is growing concern for the 101 hostages in Gaza. The latest intelligence assessment made public includes:
- Most of the hostages are being held in tunnels, likely narrow passageways with very little food, without electricity, without showers and without bathrooms, and with almost no air.
- The terrorist captors holding them have become more violent toward the hostages the more the IDF intensified its attacks. One official reportedly told the families that the terrorists’ finger on the trigger had become lighter. He said that the terrorists had been given a direct order to execute hostages if they felt in danger or if they heard soldiers approaching.
- The assessment is that most have lost 20% of their weight and some are most likely are suffering from severe medical issues that have not been treated.
- In such difficult conditions the hostages will not be able to survive for an extended period of time.
Despite the resumption of communication with Sinwar and the pressure from the families to reach a deal, the chances are not considered to be high. This is due to Sinwar’s continued intransigence and Israel’s formal demand to retain its position on the Philadelphi Corridor.
There had been efforts to reinvigorate a plan that would see all of the hostages released and allow Sinwar and the remaining Hamas leadership safe passage out of Gaza.
It remains unclear how much the US administration can invest in this process as the election draws nearer.
In parallel Israel is looking to increase the humanitarian aid into Gaza. The estimated cost is $5.4 billion (£4.12bn) per year for food alone. There are also suggestions that the Israeli Government is pushing to have IDF take over the distribution of all aid to Gaza. The IDF would take responsibility for every stage of the process – purchasing the aid, transporting it, securing it and distributing it to Gaza’s residents.
In the UK, Prime Minister Starmer made a statement to the House of Commons yesterday paying tribute to the victims of October 7th, including 15 British citizens who were slain, and another victim who has since died in captivity. He also talked about the Palestinians death toll, and the humanitarian crisis in Lebanon.
The Prime Minister said he supports Israel’s right to defend herself against Iran’s aggression in line with international law.

Looking ahead: The head of IDF Northern Command has told local leaders of northern communities that they could begin to make plans for the return of their residents after the Succot holiday, at the end of the month. The prevailing assessment is that the communities in question are ones that are at a distance from the border and leaders of these communities will await government endorsement of endorse this plan.

Consultations between Israel and the US continue over a response to Iran for firing 181 ballistic missiles at Israel last week. There are a number of attack options: from military installations to symbols of government, energy infrastructure and the Iranian nuclear programme.
The Israeli government has declared that going forward an additional – ‘Iron Sword War Memorial Day’ will be marked every year on October 7th.

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