LATEST

Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Key background
  • Hamas is an Islamist Palestinian nationalist movement which currently governs the Gaza Strip. It is proscribed by the UK and in the majority of western countries.
  • Its primary state backers are Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. It is also active in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon.
  • Since seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has continuously launched attacks against Israel and weaponised civilian infrastructure by embedding itself into schools, mosques, and hospitals.
  • Hamas’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel killed 1200, and over 250 hostages were subsequently taken to the Gaza Strip.

Updated February 19, 2024

IDF claims victory in Khan Yunis

What happened: 18 of Hamas’s 24 battalions have been defeated and the Khan Yunis Brigade is now no longer effectively operating.

  • 200 terrorists have surrendered at the city’s Nasser Hospital, alongside dozens at Al Amal Hospital.
  • The IDF says troops have detained hundreds of terror operatives — some of whom were dressed up as hospital staff — and other suspects who were holed up at the hospital, including many who participated in the October 7th massacre.
  • Troops also found links to the hostages held by the terror group as well as unopened boxes of medications bearing the names of hostages.
  • Defence Minister Yoav Gallant described Hamas’ military capacity as remaining on the fringes of central Gazan camps and within Rafah, and vowed to disband Hamas’ remaining six battalions. “Nobody is coming to help them – not the Iranians, not international aid” he added.
  • Gallant also said that Hamas is looking for a replacement for its Gazan leader Yahya Sinwar: “there is a bid for who will be the ruling actor… the external leadership is looking for internal leadership.”

Palestinian Statehood?: Israel’s cabinet pushed back against reported plans within the international community to unilaterally recognise a Palestinian state.

  • A unanimously agreed statement read “a settlement, if it is to be reached, will come about solely through direct negotiations between the parties, without preconditions” and called unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state “a massive and unprecedented reward to terrorism and would foil any future peace settlement.”
  • Minister Gantz later emphasised the importance of cooperation with the US, adding that victory in Gaza “goes hand in hand with our will to expand the circle of peace and form a united regional axis facing Iran. For that reason, the normalisation process with Saudi Arabia is an important endeavour we must pursue – and I am personally working toward it… It is through facilitating long-term processes that will consolidate a regional architecture facing the Iranian axis of terror, and by advancing international arrangements that will improve the lives of people throughout the region and promote stability and peace,” he says.
  • Gantz also warned about “one-sided actions”. “After October 7, the pathway to regional stability and peace is not through one-sided actions like recognition of a Palestinian state.”

Context: Israel has historically rejected unilateral recognition, but this latest statement by this right-wing government leaves open the opportunity for a two-state solution.

  • Israel was supported in this position by US Ambassador to Israel Lew, who said “We have never said there should be a unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state but rather an “over-the-horizon process that includes a vision for a demilitarised Palestinian state.”
  • Despite accusations, the IDF is insisting that the Nasser hospital is able to continue its operations and that it has acted “without harming the patients and medical staff and in accordance with the values of the IDF and international law.
  • As part of its vision for two states, the Biden Administration is making moves to support the ailing Palestinian Authority (PA) in the West Bank.
  • The US has repeatedly indicated a preference for having the PA assume a central role in a post-Hamas Gaza, and is reacting to news that Mahmoud Abbas’s government is fast running out of money.
  • A senior Palestinian official claimed that US reduction in aid and the suspension of Israeli tax revenues after the Hamas-led October 7 attack has put the PA ‘on the verge of financial collapse.’ Approximately 90,000 West Bank PA employees – including members of the security services and police – as well as 30,000 PA employees who live in Gaza have not received their salaries since November.
  • The PA has also suffered from the loss of taxes from Palestinian labourers who since October 7 are no longer entering Israel and West Bank settlements. These labourers used to earn a relatively high salary and bring in over 1bn USD into PA territory annually, an amount constituting slightly more than a quarter of the West Bank’s GDP.
  • To support the PA, the Biden administration would need to circumvent a US law that prevents it from contributing directly to the PA, due to Ramallah’s pay-for-slay policy which provides stipends for terrorists and their families.
  • Yesterday the Norwegian government announced it had agreed to assist in the transfer of frozen tax funds earmarked for the PA that were collected by Israel.

Looking ahead: Contrary to prior statements made by Israeli officials, a ground operation in Rafah is not thought to be imminent.

  • Before undertaking an operation in Rafah, the IDF will need to move the civilian population. Khan Yunis and other places are options.
  • Israel is hoping that continued military advancements will create pressure to renew hostage negotiations on more favourable terms. There is hope that any ground operation could be completed before Ramadan, but that remains an optimistic time frame.
  • The IDF will also likely operate against two Hamas battalions in the refugee camps in the central Gaza Strip before turning its attention to Rafah.
  • Gantz also warned that Israel would carry out a ground operation in Rafah unless the hostages were freed before Ramadan, on 10 March.

February 14, 2024

One dead, at least seven wounded in rocket attacks on Safed

The north: One Israeli was killed and at least seven wounded in the northern city of Safed following a rocket barrage fired from Lebanon this morning.

  • Reports claim at least eight rockets were fired at the city, with the IDF confirming that the launches on Safed targeted the Northern Command headquarters.
  • Rocket sirens sounded in the Galilee for the third time in under 15 minutes this morning in what appeared to be one of the heaviest barrages on northern Israel since fighting began.
  • The Israeli military said Tuesday night that the Air Force had attacked two Hezbollah military installations in southern Lebanon.
  • According to the statement, one of the positions had been used to fire missiles at Israel. The army also said that it identified two rocket launches from Lebanese territory earlier Tuesday and that the missiles fell in unpopulated areas.

Hostage deal talks: An Israeli delegation was in Cairo yesterday to discuss a possible ceasefire and hostage release deal with Hamas.

  • Talks were attended by Mossad Director Barnea, Shin Bet Director Bar, the prime minister’s political adviser Falk, CIA Director Burns, Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani and Director of the Egyptian General Intelligence Kamel.
  • A senior Egyptian source said that the atmosphere at the summit had been positive. Yet while some progress was reported in the talks, no “breakthrough” is said to have been achieved.
  • A source in Cairo that Israel and Hamas remain deeply divided over several issues.
  • The meeting reportedly focused on formulating a “final draft” of an agreement that would include a six-week ceasefire with a promise that during this time the sides would continue to hold negotiations on a permanent ceasefire.
  • The most problematic issue was the number of terrorists who would be released in exchange for each hostage.
  • A high-ranking source in Cairo said that Egypt had prepared a draft for a hostage deal but Israel did not agree to the list of Palestinian prisoners who would be released in exchange for the hostages, in keeping with the ratio of three prisoners per hostage.
  • A few hours after the Israeli delegation left the Cairo conference, a Hamas delegation arrived, including Hamas representative Khalil al-Hayya.
  • Hamas Political Bureau Head Haniyeh met with Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian in Doha yesterday. Haniyeh said that any agreement between Hamas and Israel must include a cease-fire and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, in addition to a prisoner and hostage exchange deal.

Gaza Strip: IDF Chief of Staff Halevi said yesterday “In the northern Gaza Strip, we are returning to every place where there is terrorism, we kill more enemies and destroy more terrorist infrastructure. In the southern Gaza Strip, in Khan Yunis, we are reaching places that the enemy never imagined that we would reach. We have so far killed more than 10,000 terrorists, among them many commanders. This is what it means to dismantle Hamas.”

  • Five Israeli soldiers have been killed this week – a reserve battalion commander, an officer and a soldier, as well as two soldiers from the elite Maglan Unit. The reservists were killed in an explosion in a booby-trapped house; the Maglan troops were hit by anti-tank missiles. Every day Hamas is losing dozens of fighters in battles.
  • The IDF has released footage purporting to show Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in a tunnel in the aftermath of October 7th. For more details, see Israeli Media Summary below.

Context: This morning’s rockets come after a 15-year-old boy was seriously wounded and his mother moderately wounded by rockets fired from Lebanon towards Kiryat Shmona in northern Israel yesterday.

  • Yesterday, France submitted a proposal to Lebanon to secure a ceasefire and resolve Lebanon’s border disputes with Israel. The proposal would see Hezbollah withdraw roughly ten kilometres from the Israeli border (less than it is commanded to do by UN Resolution 1701), and to dismantle its military infrastructure within that zone. Some 15,000 Lebanese army troops would be deployed in the area to ensure future compliance with the buffer zone. In response, Hezbollah said it would not comment until a ceasefire had been effected in Gaza.
  • The Qatari newspaper Al-Araby Al-Jadeed citied an Egyptian source saying that the Israeli delegation arrived in Cairo with a decision to invade Rafah if no agreement with Hamas were to be reached. The source said that the main point of contention was about a permanent ceasefire.
  • The Israeli delegation left for Cairo after extensive deliberation on whether to attend, after Hamas had previously presented demands that Netanyahu described as delusional.
  • Kan News reported that Prime Minister Netanyahu rejected a new plan for a hostage deal drafted by Mossad Director Barnea, Shin Bet Director Bar and Maj. Gen. (res.) Alon. Netanyahu decided that the three of them would go to Cairo mainly in order to listen. As a result, Maj. Gen. Alon decided to remain in Israel.
  • For the first time, Netanyahu’s adviser was sent to the talks, most likely because of other subjects that would be raised in the talks, such as Rafah and the Philadelphi Corridor.
  • The IDF has yet to destroy dozens of kilometres of tunnels in the Khan Yunis area, but the so-called strategic compounds, local headquarters and underground residences have apparently been largely mapped, and the army is preparing for their systematic destruction.

Looking ahead: Talks in Cairo are expected to continue in the days ahead, involving lower-level officials who will continue discussing a new framework for a potential hostage deal.

  • It appears that Khan Yunis will remain the centre of operations for another few weeks. At the same time, Israel is preparing for an assault on Rafah and has been issuing threats and declarations to that effect. The US is not trying to impose a veto on an operation, but wants to ensure Israel upholds its promise that the majority of the civilian population will be safely evacuated in advance.
  • The talk about a seemingly imminent offensive is designed mainly to put pressure on Arab countries in hopes that they can convince Hamas to start looking for a way to end the war.

February 13, 2024

February 13th – Day 130 of the war: News in Brief

* This is a trial of a new BICOM News in Brief format. We welcome feedback to: [email protected].

1. Two people were injured by rocket fire from Lebanon this morning. Several rockets were fired into the Upper Galilee, including at Kiryat Shmona, where a 15-year-old boy was seriously wounded. His 47-year-old mother is injured in moderate to serious condition. As usual, the IDF returned fire to the sources of fire. Since October 7th, Hezbollah has launched over 2,000 attempted attacks on Israel. 15 Israelis have been killed and around 80,000 who live closest to the border have been internally displaced. A similar number of Lebanese have been displaced, while Hezbollah has lost 193 combatants since the war began.

2. France has submitted a fresh proposal to Lebanon to secure a ceasefire and resolve Lebanon’s border disputes with Israel. The proposal would see Hezbollah withdraw roughly ten kilometres from the Israeli border (less than it is commanded to do by UN Resolution 1701), and to dismantle its military infrastructure within that zone. Some 15,000 Lebanese army troops would be deployed in the area to ensure future compliance with the buffer zone. In response, Hezbollah said it would not comment until a ceasefire had been effected in Gaza.

3. Fighting continues in Khan Yunis. According to the IDF, “troops killed over 30 terrorists and strengthened operational control of the area with targeted raids on terrorist infrastructure, sniper ambushes and patrols.” In another incident, troops identified a number of Hamas operatives transferring explosive devices on a motorcycle, that were subsequently targeted by an aircraft.  In central Gaza, IDF troops killed approximately ten fighters over the past day. Overall the IDF says it has killed over 10,000 combatants in Gaza, in addition to around 1,000 terrorists inside Israel on October 7th.

4. Three IDF reservists were killed in action on Monday fighting in the southern Gaza Strip. The soldiers were killed by an explosive device that had been planted inside a booby-trapped building. Several other soldiers were wounded in the incident as well, two of whom are hospitalised in serious condition. Since the IDF launched their ground offensive 232 IDF soldiers have been killed. According to the Hamas controlled health ministry in Gaza, over 27,000 Palestinians have been killed. However these figures do not distinguish between civilians and combatants and cannot be independently verified.

5. Diplomatic efforts continue to release the hostages. 134 hostages remain in captivity, now for 130 days. A delegation led by Mossad Director David Barnea will visit Cairo today in an attempt to advance negotiations over a hostage deal. They are expected to meet with the director of the American CIA, the Qatari prime minister and the director of Egyptian intelligence. For more details on the parameters of the talk click here.

6. Israeli forces are preparing to expand their offensive into Rafah. The move is deemed necessary in order to destroy and dismantle the remaining four (out of 24) Hamas brigades, to block the smuggling routes from Egypt, and to continue to hunt down the Hamas leadership. Palestinian sources have reported on civilian convoys beginning to leave Rafah heading north. For more details, see yesterday’s BICOM Morning Brief.

7. Earlier this morning rocket sirens were heard in the community of Netiv Ha’asara on the Gaza border. Over 11,000 rockets have been fired out of Gaza since October, with an estimated 10-20 percent falling short and landing inside Gaza  .

8. Israel faces further international pressure to end its operations in Gaza. China today called for Israel to “stop its military operation as soon as possible, make every effort to avoid innocent civilian casualties… to prevent a more serious humanitarian disaster in the Rafah area.” EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell, meanwhile, called for Israel’s allies to reduce arms supplies to Israel. “If you believe that too many people are being killed, maybe you should provide less arms in order to prevent so many people being killed,” he told a Brussels press conference.

9. Yesterday morning’s successful mission to rescue two Israeli hostages in Gaza is being hailed as an extraordinary tactical achievement. “The A+ grade fails to describe the level of precision and polished performance by all the forces involved,” says Yediot Ahronot’s Yossi Yehoshua. Hamas, meanwhile, tried to minimise the achievement by saying that the hostages were held by civilians and that a successful rescue could never have been accomplished had they been held by Hamas fighters.

10. The Israeli Foreign Ministry will be holding consultations following the US and the UK announcement to impose sanctions against four West Bank settlers. According to a statement by the British embassy in Israel, the sanctions include economic and travel restrictions, and are designed to fight the ongoing violence by settlers that threatens stability in the West Bank. Prime Minister Netanyahu related to the issue in his meeting last week with US Secretary of State Blinken. He said in a statement that the “order is very grave. If they were to use that order equally, they would have to use it against thousands of Palestinians.”

11. This morning, a terrorist attempted a car ramming attack on civilians at the Gush Etzion Junction. Israeli troops fired on and pursued the assailant, who was apprehended and taken for questioning. A knife was found in the vehicle. No injuries were reported. On Sunday there was an attempted stabbing attack in the same area. For more West Bank analysis click here.

12. The Houthis yesterday fired two missiles at a vessel in the Red Sea. The Greek-owned, Iran-bound vessel sustained minor damage and no injuries to the crew, said US CENTCOM. This incident marks the first time the Houthis have targeted a vessel headed for Iran, with some analysts briefing that it could be a show of independence from their Iranian patron from the group. Overall there have been over 70 maritime attacks from Yemen since October 7th.

** If you are a journalist and would like more details, please contact Richard Pater on [email protected].

February 12, 2024

Two hostages freed and reunited with families

Photo credit: IDF Spokesperson’s Office

What happened: Overnight, Israeli security forces carried out a successful rescue of the 61-year-old Fernando Simon Marman and 70-year-old Louis Har, both taken from their homes on Kibbutz Nir Yitzhak on October 7th.

  • Both men are in good condition and were taken by helicopter to hospital, where they were reunited with their families
  • According to the IDF and Shin Bet, the operation was planned for some time, based on precise intelligence that was cleared operationally “once conditions permitted.”
  • The operation was led by special forces who used a bomb to enter a second floor apartment in the southern Gaza city of Rafah. They killed armed guards inside and outside the building, extracting the hostages safely under heavy fire.

Context: The successful operation to rescue two hostages is being celebrated in Israel. However, 134 hostages remain in Hamas captivity, now for 128 days.

  • The rescue operation was based on such detailed intelligence that they knew by which door to enter in order to kill the armed guards and not harm the hostages.
  • Forces entered Rafah undercover, in an area not yet under Israeli control.
  • Israeli forces are prepared for wider manoeuvre into Rafah. On Friday, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced a plan to evacuate civilians in the city.
  • The Israeli government sees a ground operation in Rafah as a vital step to achieve four of the war’s objectives:
    • Engage destroy and dismantle the remaining four (out of 24) of the Hamas brigades, thereby remove the last bastions of Hamas military structure.
    • To block the smuggling routes from Egypt, which is crucial to preventing the re-armament of the Strip.
    • To continue to hunt down the Hamas leadership which, having evaded Israeli forces elsewhere, are now seemingly underneath Rafah.
    • According to the Israeli doctrine, this final operation will pressure Hamas to soften their demands over the hostages negotiations. There is also a chance that the operation could allow for further rescue missions.
  • Prior to the war, Rafah had a population of around 250,000 people. It has now swelled to an estimated 1.4 million Gazans, who have fled the fighting elsewhere.
  • Before Israel can start a ground offensive, they will need to establish another humanitarian corridor, probably back into Khan Yunis, once the ground operation there is completed.
  • Operations along the Egyptian border, referred to as the Philadelphi Corridor, is particularly sensitive for Egypt, who are concerned that pressure will increase to open their border to allow Palestinians to enter into the Egyptian half of Rafah.
  • The Egyptians are anxious and have also placed tanks and infantry troops on the border, as well as covering the border wall with heavy layers of barbed wire.
  • An Egyptian delegation met with Israeli security officials in Tel Aviv on Friday to reach understandings around Rafah.
  • Over the weekend, a senior Israeli official described Israel’s relations with Egypt as, “strategic, long-term and important for the continued prosecution of the war and a hostage deal. Relations between us are excellent and the operation will be coordinated.”
  • The US is also concerned for Gazan civilians and continues to insist that Israel:
    • Operates in coordination with the international community, and according to international law.
    • Avoids noncombatant casualties as much as possible.
    • Allows more into the Gaza Strip.
  • Some of the aid into Gaza is being held up on the Israel side, due to pressure by some families of the hostages and their supporters, who believe aid into Gaza should be contingent on their release.
  • Currently, Egypt allows all the aid entering to undergo Israeli security inspection, to ensure against weapon smuggling. However, these protests could  lead Egypt  to deliver aid to Gaza directly via Rafah without Israeli inspection.
  • Over the weekend, Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron wrote on X, that he is “deeply concerned about the prospect of a military offensive in Rafah… the priority must be an immediate pause in the fighting to get aid in and hostages out, then progress towards a sustainable, permanent ceasefire.”

Looking ahead: The IDF needs to complete operations in Khan Yunis, before the security cabinet can approve the plan to evacuate the civilian population from Rafah.

  • The IDF is hoping to have the operation in Rafah finished by the start of Ramadan, in a month’s time.
  • More shuttle diplomacy is likely before an operation is launched, to ensure at least a degree of coordination with the US and Egypt.
  • CIA chief William Burns is expected to visit Cairo in the days ahead as he looks to press forward with a deal to release the hostages and agree a ceasefire.
  • Israeli officials are also being encouraged to join the talks too.

February 8, 2024

Netanyahu dismisses “delusional” Hamas proposal

Netanyahu dismisses “delusional” Hamas proposalHostage deal: Israeli and US officials have commented publicly on Hamas’s counter-proposal to the latest hostage deal.

  • Prime Minister Netanyahu described Hamas’s demands as “delusional”. He added that “ongoing military pressure is a necessary condition for freeing the hostages.”
  • “Surrender to the… demands made by Hamas, which we’ve now heard, not only won’t bring about the hostages’ release, it will only invite another massacre; it will invite a terrible disaster on the State of Israel that not a single one of our citizens is prepared to accept.”
  • Defence Minister Gallant said that Hamas’s position would “lead to an extension of the war, and our troops to additional places in Gaza, soon.”
  • US Secretary of State Blinken, on a visit to Israel, was more circumspect, saying that “while there are some clear nonstarters in Hamas response, we think it creates space for an agreement to be reached and we’ll work at that relentlessly till we get there.”
  • Blinken “made clear that Israel is fully justified in confronting Hamas and other terrorist organisations – that’s why the US has done more than any other country to support Israel right to ensure October 7 doesn’t happen again,” he said.
  • Blinken also said that during his discussions with Netanyahu he raised “profound concerns about actions and rhetoric, including from government officials, that inflame tension and undercut international support and place greater strains on Israel’s security.”
  • The “hostages have been dehumanised every day since,” their capture, he said, “but that’s not a license to dehumanise others.”
  • On aid, while recognising that Israel has acted so that “more assistance today than ever is moving into Gaza from more places than any time since October 7,” Blinken also said that the US “calls on Israel to open Erez crossing in northern Gaza, expedite flow of aid from Jordan, strengthen de-confliction and improve coordination with humanitarian providers, and must ensure delivery of life-saving assistance is not blocked for any reason by anyone.”

Gaza: Israeli troops have captured dozens of suspected terrorists in western Khan Yunis over the past 24 hours, including two who took part in the October 7th massacre.

  • Elsewhere in the city, 20 Hamas members were killed in an Israeli offensive against a Hamas site.

West Bank: A wanted Palestinian was killed during a military operation in the Nur al-Shams refugee camp in the West Bank. According to the IDF, the casualty is Muazzam Ali, a “senior activist” in the camp, who was suspected of shooting at Israeli forces and involvement in terrorist activity.

  • A Palestinian gunmen was also shot dead after opening fire at Israeli troops near the West Bank town of Dayr Sharaf.
  • Two more Palestinians were injured, potentially by the assailant’s gunfire. No troops were injured, though one was hit on the helmet by a bullet.

Context: According to Reuters and Israeli media reports, Hamas proposed a three-stage ceasefire/hostage release plan, each stage lasting 45 days (for more details on the Hamas response, see yesterday’s BICOM Morning Brief):

  • Haaretz reports today that Hamas is also seeking to link the hostage release to demands over the protocol for Jewish entry to Jerusalem’s Temple Mount complex.
  • Hamas’s proposed amendments to the hostage deal proposal also aim to provide explicitly for the end of the war.
  • According to a draft document seen by Reuters¸ implementation of the second phase of hostage releases would not happen until “indirect talks over the requirements needed to end the mutual military operations and return to complete calm” had been held.
  • With Israel continuing to insist that no deal will be reached that provides explicitly for the end of the war before the defeat of Hamas, the US and Qatar are now expected to apply pressure to Hamas in a bid to force it to scale back its demands.
  • Israel maintains that the best way to force Hamas to do this is through maintaining the military pressure in Gaza.
  • Despite differences within the security cabinet, if a reasonable deal is ultimately agreed, it is thought that a majority of the ministers will vote in favour of it, including the prime minister.
  • Blinken’s remarks, during a press conference in Tel Aviv, were perhaps the most publicly critical of Israel he has been since October 7.
  • This morning, Blinken met with war cabinet ministers Gantz and Eisenkot and separately with Opposition Chair Yair Lapid. The Biden Administration has maintained close connections with both Gantz’s National Unity Party and Lapid’s Yesh Atid – a response, some argue, to their frustrations with Netanyahu.
  • Blinken also met with Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas, the two discussing, said Blinken, “the benefits of revitalising the Palestinian Authority.” The US has long maintained its preference for a technocratic and reformed PA playing a major role in a post-Hamas Gaza.
  • Israel is concerned about escalation in West Bank, especially in the lead up to Ramadan.
  • On Tuesday, Israeli National Security Council chairman Hanegbi, Shin Bet head Ronen Bar, and COGAT chief Alian met with PA intelligence head Majed Faraj and Civil Affairs Minister Hussein al-Sheikh.
  • Although ostensibly a secret meeting, details have emerged of their discussion. The military and intelligence echelons argue that economic instability is degrading the authority of the PA and increasing the security risks emanating from the West Bank. Therefore, The Times of Israel quotes a senior diplomat saying that the Israelis said “they would take a number of steps to address the situation, including reducing the number of checkpoints, reducing the number of arrest raids, allowing a subset of several thousand workers above the age of 45 to return to their jobs in Israel and reopening several Palestinian cities to Arab Israelis.”
  • While Gallant is thought to concur with the military, security, and intelligence heads, support for the PA has been opposed by some in the political echelon, who point to the PA’s refusal to formally condemn October 7th and its continued incitement of terror. (For a full analysis of the range of Israeli thinking on this issue, see BICOM’s recent research paper “The West Bank in the Shadow of October 7”.)

Looking ahead: Egyptian reports suggest that a new round of talks will begin today, as part of the negotiation efforts towards a hostage release deal.

  • An Israeli offensive in Rafah remains likely, Netanyahu confirming that “we’ve instructed the IDF to prepare also to operate in Rafah and in two camps in the centre, the last strongholds Hamas has left. Here too, when the time comes, the IDF will act in compliance with international law and will allow the [civilian] population safe passage out of the war zones.”
  • Saudi Arabia will today host a summit of foreign ministers from Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, in a bid to craft a unified Arab position on the war and the post-war situation in Gaza.

February 7, 2024

Hamas responds to proposed hostage deal

What’s happened: After a nearly two-week delay, Hamas has finally responded to the latest proposed hostage deal.

  • According to Reuters and Israeli media reports Hamas has proposed a three-stage ceasefire plan, each lasting 45 days:
    • Stage one would see all Israeli female hostages, males under 19, the elderly and sick released in exchange for Palestinian women and minors still held in Israeli prisons. Israel would allow for the reconstruction of hospitals, with the IDF withdrawing from populated areas of the Strip.
    • In the second phase, all Israeli male hostages would be released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
    • In the third stage, Hamas would release the bodies and remains, presumably in exchange for more prisoners.
  • According to Reuters, Hamas added “an addendum to the proposal that it wished for the release of 1500 prisoners, a third of whom it wanted to select from the a list of Palestinians handed life sentences by Israel.”
  • Israel’s Prime Minister Office confirmed that the Mossad had received Hamas’s response through Qatari mediators and was reviewing the proposal.
  • US President Joe Biden responded by calling Hamas’s answer “a little over the top.”
  • According to the latest IDF assessment, at least 31 of the 136 hostages held in Gaza are no longer alive. According to the New York Times, another 20 have also been killed.
  • Inside Gaza, the IDF continues to operate in Khan Yunis in the south as well as in the north of the Strip.
  • On Tuesday, the IDF Spokesperson Hagari gave a progress report on the subterranean operations underneath Khan Yunis, declaring,  “there are not many compounds left and we have reached most of them.”
  • He also revealed that IDF forces found intelligence material, “indicating a direct ‘connection’ from Iran to Hamas and more so – to Yahya Sinwar. We found official Hamas documents from 2020 detailing the funds transferred by Iran between the years 2014 and 2020 to Hamas and to Sinwar. More than one hundred and fifty million dollars were transferred from Iran to Hamas. This is another example of how Iran exports terror across the Middle East.”
  • He added, “In the same subterranean space, we also found a safe with banknotes and bags containing more than twenty million shekels in cash.”

Context: It took Hamas almost two weeks to respond to the proposal reached under the auspices of the director of the CIA, alongside the head of the Mossad, the head of Egyptian intelligence and the Qatari prime minister in Paris at the end of January.  (Read more details of the original proposed deal here).

  • As anticipated, Hamas is looking to secure the release of heavyweight Palestinian terrorists responsible for the murder of Israelis. Whilst the hostage families and their supporters demand a deal at any price, others in Israel are concerned for the longer term effect of releasing unrepentant murders. Families of victims are likely to raise an appeal against their release.
  • With no agreement on the hostage deal, Prime Minister Netanyahu continues to reinforce his message that the war will not end until Israel achieves “total victory.”
  • As the combat continues, earlier this week Netanyahu said that 18 out of 24 Hamas battalions have been destroyed.
  • Similarly, Defence Minister Gallant shared his assessment that “about half” of the Hamas fighting corps have been killed or seriously wounded.
  • Although precise numbers are unclear, it is estimated that there were between 25,000-30,000 Hamas fighters before October 7th.
  • According to the Hamas controlled health ministry in Gaza, over 27,000 Palestinians have been killed. However these figures do not distinguish between civilians and combatants and cannot be independently verified. Furthermore, the circumstances of the deaths of all those killed are not clear, with some thought to have died when Hamas rockets misfired and landed inside Gaza.
  • The IDF announced another officer was killed in combat on Tuesday, taking the toll since the launch of the ground operation to 226 IDF personnel.
  • There are calls among Israeli leaders to change the mechanism for delivering aid into Gaza, as more evidence suggests Hamas maintains the ability to controls the aid and its distribution.
  • US Secretary of State arrived in Israel on Tuesday night and is expected to hold meetings over the next couple of days with Israeli leaders as well as visit the West Bank.
  • Following his visit to Saudi Arabia, Blinken said, “the Saudi Crown Prince once again announced Saudi Arabia’s great interest in continuing the normalisation process with Israel”.

Looking ahead: Blinken will meet today with Prime Minister Netanyahu, President Herzog, Defence Minister Gallant and other senior Israeli officials.

  • Following Gallant’s announcement, there is anticipation that the IDF would extend the ground operations to the southern most town of Rafah on the Egyptian border.
  • However, it is possible that this was more of a threat to induce Hamas to accept the terms of the prisoner deal.
  • There is speculation that the senior Hamas leadership is hiding out in the Rafah area, but any ground operation would require the movement of over a million Gazans who have fled south and risk fracturing Israeli-Egyptian ties.

February 6, 2024

Gallant announces ground operation forthcoming in Rafah

What’s happened: Israel’s Defence Minister said yesterday evening that the IDF would soon begin a ground operation in the southern Gaza city of Rafah.

  • “The ground manoeuvre is the way to defeat Hamas,” he said. “We are continuing with that operation and we will also reach the places in which we haven’t fought yet, and especially the last centre of gravity that remains in Hamas’s hands, Rafah. Every terrorist who is hiding in Rafah needs to know that his end will be either surrender or death. There isn’t a third option.”
  • Gallant also claimed that Hamas was close to full defeat in Khan Yunis, the southern city which has seen intense fighting for several weeks.
  • “Hamas’s leadership, and Yahya Sinwar at its head, is in flight,” he said. “Sinwar has been moving from one hideout to another hideout. He has been unable to communicate with his surroundings and in the past number of days IDF troops have found significant material in places in which he had recently been and, thanks to which, we are improving our operation, [and] are deepening our hold on Hamas’s plans.”
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu also told a Likud faction meeting yesterday that “our objective is total victory over Hamas. We will kill Hamas’s leadership. Therefore, we need to continue to act in all parts of the Gaza Strip. The war must not be ended before that. This will take time—months, and not years.”
  • In pointed comments, Gallant also pressed for clarity on the ‘day after’ in Gaza. “The military act is bound up with the political act,” he said. “Only advancing a political alternative will guarantee the end of Hamas’s rule. No Israeli civilian control in the Gaza Strip will exist. Now is the time to make the correct decisions so that we might achieve the political objectives that we set and to allow [us] to emerge into a new space, in the course of which the circle of peace can be expanded at the expense of the circle of terrorism.”
  • An airstrike on central Gaza’s Deir al-Balah overnight killed a Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorist who participated in the attack on Nir Oz on October 7. The IDF said that during its operations in Khan Yunis over the last few days, 80 terrorists were captured, including several who had also participated on October 7.
  • Four terrorists were also killed in Beit Hanoun, in the northern Gaza Strip, while trying to rebuild Hamas’s observation and intelligence-collecting capabilities in the area.
  • Israeli officials have continued talks with Qatari and Egyptian counterparts in an effort to reach a hostage deal with Hamas. Hamas have still not formally responded to the proposals forged during the recent Paris negotiations, but is thought unlikely to reject the terms outright, but to demand significant amendments.
  • Israeli media reports this morning suggest that ministers Gantz and Eisenkot have proposed that Israel temporarily suspend allowing into the Gaza Strip until a new mechanism is set up to distribute aid to the population. The proposal came after the two were presented with information claiming that 60 percent of the aid currently entering the Strip – and all of the aid in Rafah – ends up Hamas’s hands.
  • “Ten percent of the making its way into the hands of Hamas is bad enough, so 60 percent truly is very bad,” said a senior Israeli official. “It means that over half of Gaza’s population is receiving its food from Hamas. This threatens all our military achievements and the objective of topping Hamas.”
  • The IDF, however, distanced itself from the 60 percent statistic, a spokesperson saying that it “was not provided by IDF officers, and it is one [that is] unfamiliar [to the IDF] since it isn’t borne out by either intelligence or operational information.”

Context: Egypt has previously urged Israel not to conduct operations in Rafah, where four Hamas battalions are tasked with maintaining Hamas’s control over an area in which there are also significant smuggling routes.

  • Egypt is fearful that fighting there could cause many of the 1.4 million Gazans sheltering in the city to flee over the border to the Egyptian Sinai.
  • Cairo recently relayed very stern messages to Israel warning that any movement of Palestinian refugees into the Peninsula would jeopardise the peace treaty between the two countries.
  • Israel is said to have informed Cairo that before commencing operations in Rafah, civilians will be evacuated to other parts of the Strip. According to the UN, Israeli evacuation orders in Gaza now extend to two thirds of the Strip, previously home to some 77 percent of its residents.
  • Both countries have also reportedly considered the option of relocating the border crossing in Rafah to the Kerem Shalom area, placing it near the three-way Israel-Gaza-Egypt border.
  • In another aspect of Israeli-Egyptian relations, Israeli media reports today that Egypt recently told Israel that it would be prepared to send police troops into Gaza after the war. According to that report, the Egyptians said they would only be willing to do so if asked by a Palestinian Authority (PA) it expects to control the Strip, and not by Israel.
  • The US has long urged the Israeli political echelon to be clearer about its ‘day after’ plans, and has been explicit in favouring a “reformed” and technocratic PA assuming control.
  • Israel, however, has not publicly supported such a role for Mahmoud Abbas’s government, and is wary of enabling an organisation which has not formally condemned the Hamas massacres and which continues to incite terror against Israelis through its ‘pay for slay’ policies.
  • Hamas’s delayed response to the latest hostage proposal is thought to be caused partly by differences of opinion between its overseas political bureau and the Gazan leadership, with the latter thought to be more ready to accept a deal.
  • It is anticipated that Hamas’s demanded amendments will include both a permanent ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a much more imbalanced ratio of hostages freed to Palestinian security prisoners in Israeli jails released.
  • Relating to this, Netanyahu said that “Hamas has demands that we won’t agree to” and that the ratio needed “to be similar to the previous agreement,” which saw three prisoners released for each hostage freed.
  • With Netanyahu under pressure from far-right elements in his government not to conclude a hostage deal under such imbalanced terms, Opposition Chairman Yair Lapid once more reiterated his offer to temporarily support a Netanyahu government if Finance Minister Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party and National Security Minister Ben Gvir’s Jewish Power were to be removed.
  • After a two-hour meeting with Netanyahu yesterday, Lapid said “I told the prime minister… if he needs a safety net of any kind from me—for us to join the government, from outside, in any way—he just needs to say so. Because the most important thing is to get the hostages back.”

Looking ahead: While Israel and the Paris negotiators await a formal Hamas response to the latest hostage proposal, US Secretary of State Blinken has begun his fifth regional visit since October 7.

  • Yesterday, he visited Riyadh for talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. He will arrive in Cairo today seeking “an enduring end” to the war, and will conclude the trip with visits to both Qatar, Israel, and the West Bank.

February 5, 2024

Hamas still deliberating hostage deal

Hostage/Prisoner exchange: Hamas sources said over the weekend the group was still debating the cease-fire and hostage-release deal proposal.

  • According to the Hamas-affiliated Al-Aqsa channel, Hamas is deliberating with “all the representatives from the different factions and organisations in the Palestinian sphere” to promote Palestinian national interests, the first of which is “stopping the [Israeli] aggression, rehabilitating the Gaza Strip, and releasing the prisoners.”
  • The Saudi network Al-Arabiya, however, reported that Hamas has rejected the Israeli proposal for a hostage deal and is demanding that the number of Palestinian prisoners Israel releases be increased. According to the report, Israel is opposed to the demand.
  • When asked about progress on potential hostage deals, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on ABC’s This Week programme that “I can’t say it’s imminent, but ultimately these kinds of negotiations unfold somewhat slowly until they unfold very quickly. And so it’s difficult to put a precise timetable on when something might come together or frankly if something might come together. But sitting here today I cannot tell you it’s right around the corner.”
  • In an interview on NBC’s Meet the Press programme, he said: “At this point, it’s up to Hamas to come forward and respond to a serious proposal, and we will continue to press Qatar and Egypt to try and generate a positive response,” he said. “What we’re pushing for is an outcome where every hostage returns home and Hamas in no longer in charge of Gaza… Everybody wants an end to the war, no one wants the war to continue. But for this to happen, all the hostages need to come home and Hamas needs to no longer pose a threat to Israel.”
  • On CBS’ Face the Nation, Sullivan said the US “has been clear that we have to look out for and respond to the immense and terrible suffering of the Palestinian people. And that means pressing Israel on issues related to the humanitarian assistance that we have helped unlock and get into the Gaza Strip and there needs to be much more of it.” 

Gaza Strip: The IDF said it raided a central command centre of Hamas’ Khan Younis division where it located the office Mohammad Sinwar, brother of Hamas leader in Gaza.

  • IDF forces also raided a central outpost of the division, which was used to train terrorists that participated in the October 7 attacks. The outpost had models of Kibbutz entrances, IDF bases and armed vehicles.
  • Troops found storerooms housing rockets, shafts that led to underground facilities, equipment that was used to manufacture guns, as well as a large cache of weapons that included anti-tank missiles, rocket-propelled grenades, machineguns, explosive devices, hand grenades, rifle magazines and more.
  • On Sunday, 24-year-old IDF soldier Shimon Yehoshua Asulin was killed in action in the southern Gaza Strip.
  • During a visit to the Tel Nof Air Base Israeli Defence Minister Gallant said that “every airstrike in Gaza brings us closer to achieving our goals and returning the hostages. The pressure on Hamas is working, they are in a bad condition, and we are hitting them. In the north, the reality is similar – as we deepen our military achievements, the chance of not having to go to war grows.”

The north: At least eight rockets were fired this morning from Lebanon at the Upper Galilee. No injuries were sustained.

  • An anti-tank missile that was shot from Lebanon into northern Israel Saturday evening hit a garage in Kibbutz Yir’on and caused damage, according to the IDF. No casualties were reported.
  • The IDF says it carried out new airstrikes on in the southern Lebanese village of Yaroun, including on a Hezbollah command centre and another building used by the terror group. The IDF says it also struck a Hezbollah observation post in Maroun al-Ras.
  • IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said yesterday evening that the IDF has attacked more than 3,400 Hezbollah targets so far in the war. He went on to say that Israel has killed more than 200 terrorists, has destroyed roughly 40 arms storerooms that were hidden in the area of the Israeli border, and has destroyed roughly 120 Hezbollah observation posts.
  • “The security reality in the north is already being remoulded now and will continue to be remoulded moving ahead. We won’t revert to the security reality as existed on October 6,” Hagari said. “The State of Israel is a different country. Hezbollah won’t threaten the residents of the north and deceive the world.”
  • Gallant met with Biden’s Special Adviser to the Middle East Amos Hochstein and said that Israel is willing to solve the crisis with Lebanon through diplomacy, but is prepared for any other scenario.

Red Sea: Over the weekend, the US, UK and other allies conducted strikes against 36 Houthi targets at 13 locations, in what was their third round of joint military action.

  • According to US Central Command (CENTCOM), US forces “conducted a strike in self-defence against a Houthi… land attack cruise missile,” and later struck “four anti-ship cruise missiles, all of which were prepared to launch against ships in the Red Sea”.
  • American forces “identified the missiles in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and determined they presented an imminent threat to US Navy ships and merchant vessels in the region.”
  • In a statement on Sunday, Houthi spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam said that continued US-British ‘aggression’ in Yemen will not achieve any goal for the aggressors and will not affect Yemen’s decision to show its support for Gaza.
  • Iran has issued a warning to the US over potentially targeting two cargo ships in the Mideast suspected of serving as a forwarding operating base for Iranian commandos.

Context: Some Israeli officials believe the delay in Hamas responding is technical in nature; others believe it stems from deep differences of opinion within Hamas over substantive issues.

  • Reports emerged over the weekend about differences of opinion between Hamas’s Gaza leadership, headed by Yahya Sinwar, and Hamas’s overseas leadership, headed by Ismail Haniya. Those in Gaza allegedly want a deal now while Hamas officials based overseas insist that any deal be contingent upon a complete end to the war.
  • It appears Hamas is demanding the right to draw up the list of Palestinian prisoners to be freed from Israeli jails. These include Marwan Barghouti, long considered to be an important “symbol” of Palestinian resistance; Ahmad Sadaat, serving a 30-year sentence for the murder of Transportation Minister Rehavam Zeevi in 2001; and Abdullah Barghouti, a Hamas member who served as commander of Hamas’ West Bank military wing and was sentenced to 67 life-term sentences.
  • The Israeli cabinet has discussed a 142-day ceasefire. The proposal that has been made calls for 35 hostages to be released in the first round during a 42-day pause in the fighting—one day of paused fighting for each freed hostage and another seven days of negotiations to conclude the next round. After that round, there will be 100 hostages remaining in captivity, meaning the pause is likely to last 100 more days.
  • Israeli security cabinet members disagree on the length of the ceasefire.
  • There are 136 hostages, alive and dead, who have now been held in Gaza for 122 days.
  • The area of Rafah remains a challenge for the IDF. Four Hamas battalions are tasked with maintaining Hamas’s control over the area in which there are also significant smuggling routes. Approximately 1.4 million Palestinians are in Rafah. Some Israeli officials believe that with an orderly plan to move them, the conditions can be created for a manoeuvre. Such a step would constitute a de facto defeat of Hamas’s military wing even without reaching its leadership.
  • Egypt is concerned that if the fighting is extended to Rafah, many of these 1.4 million Palestinians will be forced to flee over the border into the Egyptian Sinai. It recently relayed very stern messages to Israel warning that any movement of Palestinian refugees into the Peninsula would jeopardise the peace treaty between the two countries.
  • Israel and Egypt are reportedly considering the option of relocating the border crossing in Rafah to the Kerem Shalom area, placing it near the three-way Israel-Gaza-Egypt border. According to Channel 13 the goal is to facilitate ongoing Egyptian involvement at the crossing so as to avoid clashing with it over that issue, on the one hand, while simultaneously allowing for the crossing to be on the Israeli border as well as to facilitate Israeli security inspections, on the other.

Looking ahead: During his current trip to the region, Blinken will visit Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Israel and the Palestinian Authority. He is due to continue the diplomatic efforts to reach an agreement that will free all of the remaining hostages in Gaza.

  • The newly appointed French foreign minister, Stéphane Séjourné, is slated to begin a first round of visits to the Middle East today. He will travel to Egypt, then Jordan, Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Séjourné’s last stop will be Lebanon.

February 2, 2024

Hamas yet to respond to hostage deal proposal, Biden talks Palestinian statehood

Potential hostage deal: Hamas announced last night that it had received the latest proposal for a ceasefire and hostage release, but did not relay its response to any of the sides involved in the negotiations.

  • A spokesman for the Qatari Foreign Ministry said that Israel had agreed to the proposal and that they also received initial agreement from Hamas, though no formal Hamas acceptance of the terms has happened yet.
  • The Israeli Security Cabinet met last night to discuss the proposed deal, with a senior Israeli official estimating its chances of success at 50 percent.
  • The Wall Street Journal reports that the proposal on the table would involve a three-stage process to return all 136 hostages, both living and dead, in exchange for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. The ratio of hostages freed to Palestinian prisoners released remains contentious, with Hamas said to be holding out for 150 prisoners released for each female soldier being held.
    • Stage one would see a six-week ceasefire observed in Gaza, during which Hamas would round up the hostages ready for release. It is expected that elderly and sick will be released in this round. Gazan residents will also be allowed to move freely around the Strip.
    • Stage two would witness the release of female soldiers held hostage, as well as an increase in into Gaza and guarantees that hospitals, bakeries and water services will retain the ability to function.
    • Stage three would see the release of male soldiers and the bodies of dead hostages.

Israel-Egypt: Talks are ongoing between the two countries concerning the Philadelphi Corridor, the narrow strip running the full length of the Egypt-Gaza border.

  • In a bid to prevent the smuggling of weapons from Egypt to terror groups in the Strip, Israel has proposed to secure the corridor with IDF troops, a move previously opposed by Egypt.
  • Now, however, Israeli officials are briefing that the two sides are “nearing consent” on a “certain Israeli presence” in the corridor. This follows a meeting held this week between Shin Bet Director Bar and IDF Intelligence Director Maj. Gen. Haliva at Egyptian intelligence headquarters in Cairo, in which an alternative to troops on the ground was discussed, which would see “technological” measures installed above the Philadelphi Corridor on the Israeli side that would detect the presence of Palestinians or attempts to approach the corridor in order to reach Sinai or to smuggle weapons and military equipment to Gaza through tunnels.
  • Israel is also understood to have held talks with a Persian Gulf state in a bid to persuade it to finance the construction of an underground barrier that would completely disconnect Gaza from Sinai.
  • Agreement also seems to have been reached to allay Egyptian fears that fighting in the Rafah area, close to the Egypt-Gaza border, would prompt some of the million-odd Palestinian refugees in the area to flee into Egyptian territory. Israel is thought to have committed, for now, to avoiding military action there.

Context: A hostage deal of the type described continues to be vehemently opposed by elements within the Israeli coalition, most especially Finance Minister Smotrich and National Security Minister Ben Gvir. (For more details on the political manoeuvring see Israeli Media Summary below.)

  • Hostage families have maintained a campaign to prioritise the captives’ release for several months. Yesterday, hundreds of protesters blocked Begin Boulevard in Tel Aviv, calling for their release. The protest saw clashes with police.
  • In parallel, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met with Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer after having first met with representatives of the hostages’ families and speaking with Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu and other senior ministers maintain that a hostage deal will not signal the end of Israel’s campaign in Gaza, and that Israel will not stop short of its stated war aim of the total defeat of Hamas. There are fears, however, that it will be difficult to resume intense fighting after a protracted ceasefire.
  • Nonetheless, Israeli forces in the Strip have already been gradually reduced. At the height of the ground operation there were four divisions in the Gaza Strip. Six brigades now remain – two in the north and four in the south in Khan Yunis.

The Biden Doctrine?: The New York Times‘ Thomas Friedman – a journalist close to the Biden Administration –  wrote yesterday that the president is considering “some form of US recognition of a demilitarised Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip that would come into being only once Palestinians had developed a set of defined, credible institutions and security capabilities to ensure that this state was viable and that it could never threaten Israel.”

  • Biden also yesterday signed an executive order imposing sanctions on Israeli West Bank settlers involved in violence against Palestinians.
  • Four individuals have been targeted in the first round of sanctions, which include bans on entry to the US and on property and financial access in the country.
  • In the order, Biden said: “The situation in the West Bank — in particular high levels of extremist settler violence, forced displacement of people and villages, and property destruction — has reached intolerable levels and constitutes a serious threat to the peace, security and stability.”
  • In response, Netanyahu said that “the vast majority of residents of Judea and Samaria are law-abiding citizens, many of whom are fighting right now in active and reserve duty to protect Israel. Israel acts against all violators of the law in all places… and therefore there is no place for drastic steps on this matter.”
  • The US previously imposed visa restrictions on those settlers proven to have engaged in violence in December 2023, but yesterday’s measures are the furthest any US president has gone in this regard.

Context: Earlier this week, US State Department spokesman Matt Miller confirmed that the administration is “actively pursuing the establishment of an independent Palestinian state – with real security guarantees for Israel, because we do believe that is the best way to bring about lasting peace and security for Israel, for Palestinians, and for the region.”

  • “There has been no policy shift in the administration. We have made quite clear publicly that we support the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. That has been the policy of the United States for some time. It has been the policy of this administration.”
  • “There are any number of sequencing of events that you could carry out to accomplish that objective… We look at any number of options. That’s part of the normal planning process. The vast majority of options never usually get implemented.”
  • UK Foreign Secretary Cameron also hinted at potential UK recognition of Palestinian statehood earlier this week, saying “we have a responsibility there because we should be starting to set out what a Palestinian state would look like, what it would comprise, how it would work and crucially, looking at the issue, that as that happens, we with allies will look at the issue of recognising a Palestinian state, including at the United Nations. That could be one of the things that helps to make this process irreversible.”
  • The recognition of Palestinian statehood prior to a negotiated agreement being reached between Israel and the Palestinians would upend a decades-long consensus amongst Israel’s allies that recognition is the culmination of a process, not a step along its way.
  • It has generally been held that such moves surrender valuable political capital required in encouraging Palestinians to end their intransigence in future negotiations.
  • Further, there have been fears that pre-emptive recognition risks provoking dangerous and potentially violent disappointment when they fail to shift on-the-ground realities.
  • Prior to October 7, moves towards normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia were thought have been close to fruition, having been a major priority both of the Biden administration and the Netanyahu government. Part of the motivation of Hamas and its Iranian patron on October 7 was to scupper the process.
  • Riyadh reportedly had significant demands of Washington to proceed with the deal, including assistance with a (purportedly civilian) nuclear programme, sales of advanced weapons, and closer ties between the two countries whose relations had grown frostier. Biden assumed office promising to ‘get tough’ with Saudi Arabia in the wake of the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi.

Looking ahead: A delegation representing Palestinian Islamic Jihad is also due to visit Cairo shortly to join the talks on a hostage release.

February 1, 2024

The West Bank in the Shadow of October 7

Part of Hamas’ strategy on October 7 was to provoke violence to spread elsewhere. Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar explained his plan that following the murderous attack, unrest would spread to the West Bank (as well as in the north and in mixed cities within sovereign Israel).

Even before October 7, the West Bank was close to explosion. Between January and October 2023, over 30 Israelis were killed in terror attacks in the West Bank, making it the deadliest year since the Second Intifada. Over the summer, Palestinian organisations made at least three (failed) attempts to launch rockets at Israeli communities and population centres from the West Bank. Since October 7, violence has continued in the West Bank but without (yet) spiraling out of control.

This BICOM research paper identifies these dangerous trends in the West Bank, and maps Israel’s challenges in this arena in the post-October 7 context.

Newsletter sign-up

Please enter your information below to subscribe to our weekly newsletter and stay updated and informed.

Donate to BICOM

At BICOM, we rely on the generosity of people like you to keep our website and services running. Your donation, no matter the size, makes a real difference. Please consider supporting us today.