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Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Key background
  • Hamas is an Islamist Palestinian nationalist movement which currently governs the Gaza Strip. It is proscribed by the UK and in the majority of western countries.
  • Its primary state backers are Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. It is also active in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon.
  • Since seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has continuously launched attacks against Israel and weaponised civilian infrastructure by embedding itself into schools, mosques, and hospitals.
  • Hamas’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel killed 1200, and over 250 hostages were subsequently taken to the Gaza Strip.

Updated September 16, 2024

Renewed efforts for a hostage deal to avert wider war

What’s happened: On Thursday night the leaders of the US, Qatar and Egypt issued a joint statement imploring the sides to finalise a deal.

  • According to their statement, “There is no more time to waste nor excuses from any party for further delay. It is time to release the hostages, begin the ceasefire, and implement this agreement.”
  • “As mediators, if necessary, we are prepared to present a final bridging proposal that resolves the remaining implementation issues in a manner that meets the expectations of all parties.”
  • Following the announcement Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office issued a statement that Israel would send the negotiating team on August 15th to finalise the details.
  • The Hostages and Missing Families Forum issued a statement thanking the leaders for their commitment to free the hostages.
  • Despite the cautious optimism, fighting has continued in the south and north.
  • Sirens were heard early this morning, in Ashkelon and Zikim, one rocket from Gaza was successfully intercepted.
  • Inside Gaza, the IDF continues to operate in the south and centre of the Strip. As part of their efforts to prevent Hamas from rebuilding its fighting capacity the IDF launched a new incursion into Khan Younis after calling Palestinian civilians to evacuate.
  • According to the IDF over the past day, the Israeli Air Force (IAF), “struck approximately 60 terror targets throughout the Gaza Strip, including military structures in which terrorists were operating, weaponry, and additional terrorist infrastructure.”
  • In Rafah, “troops located rocket launch pits along the Philadelphi Corridor that were situated a few dozen meters away from the Gaza Strip’s largest fuel storage facility for civilian use. Any damage to the facility – including rocket fire from these nearby launch pits – could endanger the lives of tens of thousands of Gazan citizens in the surrounding areas. The IDF did not damage the fuel storage facility while dismantling the launch pits.”
  • The IDF statement added this is, ”a further example of the systematic abuse of civilian and humanitarian infrastructure by the terror organisations in Gaza.”
  • In the north Hezbollah continues launching rockets, missiles, and attack drones into northern Israel. Over 50 rockets were fired yesterday towards Nahariya and Shlomi, some were intercepted while others landed in open areas.
  • This morning, more rockets were fired at Kiryat Shmona and Manara.
  • The IDF continues to target Hezbollah assets in response. Last night, “the IAF struck a Hezbollah command centre in the area of Hanaouay and terrorist infrastructure in the area of Ayta ash Shab in southern Lebanon. Additionally, the IAF struck a Hezbollah launcher in the area of Ayta ash Shab from which rockets were fired yesterday.”

Context: Israel remains on high alert for the anticipated revenge attack for the dual assassinations of Ismail Haniya in Tehran and Fuad Shukr in Lebanon a week ago.

  • According to Hezbollah leader Nasrallah the delay in the attack is part of a psychological strategy designed to keep the Israeli population under constant fear.
  • The IDF Chief of Staff Halevi described his forces being on “peak readiness, both in offense and in defence.” Adding, “We will know how to carry out a very rapid offensive anywhere in Lebanon, anywhere in Gaza, anywhere in the Middle East, above ground and below ground. We will send a very clear message to our enemies, those who attack us, those who in every speech talk about how they will destroy the state of Israel, we will harm them, and we will continue to grow stronger.”
  • Israel continues to receive the support and backing from key allies. Defence Minister Gallant has kept daily contact with senior US defence officials. Whilst the US has now deployed F-22 fighter jets to the region as part of their force projection.
  • The cautious optimism around the hostage talks is at least partly based on the latest assessment that Hamas leader Sinwar is now keen to reach a ceasefire as soon as possible and does want not to wait for the possibility of a clash between Israel and Hezbollah and Iran.
  • Sinwar is thought to be under renewed pressure from the remaining commanders of the military wing who have seen the devastation wrought upon them in 10 months of fighting.
  • It is thought up to 75 per cent of Hamas forces have now been destroyed. Sinwar is one of the only senior leaders that remains alive.
  • The Israeli assessment is that around 90 per cent of their rocket capacity has either been fired or destroyed. Yet as is evident from yesterday, they maintain a limited ability to still fire rockets into Israel.
  • The view remains that Hamas have held back some of the long-range rockets for symbolic use on special occasions, such as to respond to the assassination of senior Hamas officials.
  • Today marks the 308th day of the war, 115 hostages remain in Hamas captivity.
  • The parameters of the agreement are based on the principles as outlined by President Biden at the end of May, and endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 2735.
  • Earlier in the week  the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) held an emergency meeting in the Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah at the request of Iran and the Palestinians.
  • Acting Iranian Foreign Minister, Baqeri Ali Bagheri Kani told members, “it is expected that they support Iran’s response to the killing. Iran’s action is not only a defence of its own sovereignty and national security but also a defence of the stability and security of the entire region.”
  • It remains unclear whether Iran intends to execute its ‘revenge operation’ exclusively on its own, or whether it will also enlist its proxies. Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas and Islamic Jihad have all declared their desire to join an attack.

Looking ahead: Whist Israel remains on high alert for a potential multi front attack, there is hope that the prospect of reaching a hostage deal will avert an escalation.

  • Media reports have suggested that President Macron relayed messages to Lebanese officials asking Hezbollah to hold off any attack, so as not to detract attention from the Olympics
  • Others have suggested that they will attack on the symbolic date of Monday night / Tuesday which coincides with the Jewish fast day of national mourning – the 9th of Av.
  • Renewed hostage talks have been scheduled to be resumed next Thursday August 15th in either Doha or Cairo.

August 7, 2024

Sinwar replaces Haniyeh, as Israel braces for Iranian attack

What’s happened: Hamas announced that Yahya Sinwar, one of the masterminds behind the deadly October 7th  attack, was selected as the next leader of Hamas, replacing Ismail Haniyeh.

  • IDF operations inside Gaza remain ongoing. On Tuesday the IDF announced they killed the Hamas commander responsible for weapons smuggling. According to the IDF Mohammed Mahasneh, was “primarily involved in smuggling operations at sea, but also operated to smuggle equipment through tunnels and border crossings. His elimination significantly degrades the capabilities of the Hamas terrorist organisation to smuggle equipment into the Gaza Strip.”
  • Also in the Rafah area, the IDF said, “troops eliminated more than 25 terrorists. As part of IDF operational activity, the troops eliminated approximately ten terrorists who posed a threat to them, and the IAF struck multiple terror targets in the area. Additionally, an anti-tank missile was shot toward the troops.”
  • In one incident an anti-tank missiles was fired at IDF troops, injuring several soldiers. The incident took place in eastern Rafah, adjacent to the Humanitarian Route.
  • Despite IDF progress, rockets were once more launched from northern Gaza toward Sderot and Ashkelon.
  • President Herzog visited the Kerem Shalom Crossing on Tuesday that continues to serve as the main artery for supplies of humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza. Herzog noted, “We saw materials en-route to build one of 3 new field hospitals, in addition to the 11 already established all across the Gaza Strip – while Hamas used the previous hospitals as a base for terror, and to hold captive our hostages.”
  • He added, “The new medical facilities are part of a huge effort in conjunction with international NGOs and the Israeli authorities to bring this aid to the civilians in Gaza. It all depends now on the ability of international organizations to deliver the aid in Gaza itself, and of course to prevent looting by Hamas terrorists who are trying to stop these deliveries.”
  • A total of 274 trucks carrying humanitarian goods were transferred to Gaza on Tuesday. According to COGAT there are about 600 trucks worth waiting to be collected from the Gazan side of Kerem Shalom crossing.
  • In the north there have been ongoing alerts across northern Israel, with Hezbollah launching dozens of drones and rockets.
  • Although most were successfully intercepted one drone landed on a motorway in the Nahariya area, 18 people were injured, including one person in critical condition.
  • Hezbollah’s Secretary General Nasrallah spoke, last night, marking a week since Israel killed the senior Hezbollah commander Shukr in Beirut. Nasrallah claimed that, “Israel’s waiting is part of our response.”  He said the response to Shukr’s death would come “perhaps separately, or perhaps with the entire axis together.”
  • As part of ongoing psychological warfare Israeli Air Force jets carried out loud sonic booms over Beirut during Nasrallah’s speech.

Context: Tensions in Israel remain high ahead of anticipated attack by Iran, that could include Hezbollah and other Iranian regional proxies in Iraq,  Syria and Yemen.

  • Israel is making preparations for active defence but also to have an offensive plan in place.
  • There is a debate whether an offensive response should be immediate following the launch of an Iranian attack or whether it should be assessed and calibrate according to the damage caused.
  • Israel’s Defence Minister Gallant has continued to coordinate Israel’s defensive posture with allies including the US and UK, earlier this week he hosted US CENTCOM Commander Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, in Israel for his ninth visit since October.
  • Minister Gallant commented that the visit at this time, “is a direct translation of US support for Israel into action. The relationship between Israel and the United States is unshakeable.
  • On Friday Gallant hosted UK Secretary of Defence Healey visited Israel, according to the Israeli MOD, “they discussed the important defence ties between Israel and the UK, and their shared commitment to maintaining and further strengthening cooperation in a number of strategic and military areas, including the field of intelligence.”
  • They also discussed, “the IDF’s readiness and capabilities to defend Israel on all fronts, and emphasised the importance of establishing a coalition in Israel’s defence against Iran and its proxies.”
  • Sinwar’s appointment places the entire terror organisation under his leadership and is thought to reinforce Hamas’s connection with Iran and their axis. Whist other potential candidates were closer to Qatar.
  • The complexity and duplicity of the Qatari role is further highlighted this week. Whilst the head of US CENTCOM coordinates a united response to an attack from Iran on Israel from Qatar at the same time Qatar hosted the funeral of Hamas leader Haniyeh.

Looking ahead: Israel remains on a high state of alert ahead of an anticipated attack from Iran and its regional proxies.

  • Various local authorities, including in Haifa are implementing contingency plans to cope with the potential for a substantial attack.

August 5, 2024

Israel prepares for Iranian attack under fire from Gaza and Lebanon and stabbing in Holon

What’s happened: In the face of a potentially imminent Iranian attack in response to Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran, Israel continues to come under Hamas and Hezbollah fire from both the Gaza Strip and Lebanon.

  • Following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week, the US is said to believe that an Iranian response against Israel may be imminent. This would likely be similar to mid-April’s mass missile and drone launches against Israel, but on a larger scale and also supported by Iran’s proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.
  • The US and its regional allies are urging restraint and de-escalation, with Jordan’s Foreign Minister making a rare visit to Iran over the weekend in a last-ditch effort to prevent Iran retaliating against Haniyeh’s death.
  • According to a Wall Street Journal report from Sunday, Iran has rejected pleas for moderation and is determined to retaliate even if doing so sparks a regional war.
  • The US has also said that it will deploy additional military assets to the Middle East to defend Israel from an expected Iranian attack. These will likely include fighters jets and additional ballistic missile defence-capable cruisers and destroyers.
  • While several international airliners have cancelled flights to and from Israel, the country’s airspace remains open with no indications of imminent closure.
  • General Michael Kurilla, Commander of US CENTCOM, will arrive in Israel today to complete preparations with the IDF to defend against this likely attack.
  • Over the weekend, Hezbollah also fired dozens of drones and rockets at northern Israel. The majority were intercepted, but two Israeli soldiers were moderately wounded in a drone strike near Kibbutz Ayelet HaShahar earlier this morning. The IDF has responded with air and artillery strikes at Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon.
  • Yesterday, Hamas fired at least 19 rockets from the Gaza Strip in its largest barrage for weeks. While predominantly targeting the border community of Sufa, sirens were also triggered in Kiryat Malachi which is 40km away. No injuries were reported, and the IDF later said that it destroyed the rocket launchers used in the strikes.
  • Elsewhere in the Gaza Strip, the IDF continues its efforts to degrade and destroy Hamas’s terrorist infrastructure. A particularly large tunnel big enough to drive a vehicle through was uncovered in the Philadelphia Corridor, and is one of dozens that has been identified and destroyed. The IDF has also struck Hamas command and control centres embedded within the Hassan Salame and Nasser schools in Gaza City.
  • The IDF has conducted counter-terror operations in the West Bank city of Tulkarem, eliminating nine terrorists in two airstrikes that took place on Saturday. The terrorists killed were associated with Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and part of cells responsible for the deaths of Israeli soldiers and police officers earlier in the year.
  • Two Israelis were also killed in a stabbing attack in the Tel Aviv suburb of Holon on Sunday. A Palestinian terrorist from the West Bank was killed by responding Israeli police officers.

Context: Over 300 days into OPERATION SWORDS OF IRON, there is little prospect of hostilities abating in either the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, or further afield where Iran maintains a network of proxies as part of the “Axis of Resistance”.

  • Following Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran, Egypt and Qatar have both questioned the future of negotiations between Israel and Hamas intended to secure a ceasefire and the release of hostages held in the Gaza Strip. Haniyeh was a senior member of Hamas’s negotiating delegation, and President Biden has branded his assassination as “unhelpful”.
  • In the event that negotiations restart and then fail, the US has now guaranteed that Israel will be able to resume its military operations against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Looking ahead: Israel is preparing for Iran’s likely retaliation to Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran while the US works to revive April’s defensive coalition.

  • While the US has warned that Iran’s expected attack against Israel may come as early as today, it has also been suggested that it could take place on the fast of Tisha B’Av which begins next Monday evening and commemorates national disasters experienced by the Jewish people.
  • It is expected that this attack will be similar to April’s, but on a larger scale and involve hundreds or thousands of drones and missiles being fired at Israel from Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.
  • The US is currently working to reconstitute the international coalition which came together to defend Israel against Iran’s attack in April. Coordinated by CENTOM, it is hoped that this coalition will see the UK, US, France, UAE, Jordan, and other Sunni Arab states join forces and protect Israeli airspace against missiles and drones fired by Iran and its proxies.

August 2, 2024

Biden reaffirms commitment to Israel’s security

What’s happened: Last night Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke on the phone with President Biden and Vice President Harris.

  • According to the White House, “The President reaffirmed his commitment to Israel’s security against all threats from Iran, including its proxy terrorist groups Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. The President discussed efforts to support Israel’s defence against threats, including against ballistic missiles and drones, to include new defensive US military deployments.”
  • Today Defence Secretary, John Healey, who is visiting the region, is expected to arrive to Israel.
  • Earlier this week the UK Permanent Representative to the UN, Ambassador Barbara Woodward said, “The UK is resolute in our commitment to Israel’s security. We support Israel’s right to defend itself in the face of such aggression, in line with international humanitarian law.”
  • On the ground yesterday, Hezbollah resumed firing rockets into northern Israel aimed at several communities in the western Galilee.
  • In a speech on Thursday, Hezbollah leader Nasrallah warned of a harsh response following the assassination of his Chief of Staff. Nasrallah warned, “Because they have picked a fight with everyone, they don’t know where the response will come from … the response will come separately or coordinated.” Nasrallah also warned that the war had entered a “new phase”.
  • This morning, IDF announced that during a “targeted, intelligence-based operation, the IDF eliminated the terrorist Mohammed al-Jabari, who was deputy head of weapons manufacturing for the Islamic Jihad.”
  • In addition, “IDF troops eliminated approximately 30 terrorists in the area of Rafah.”
  • Separately, more details have emerged on Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran. According to the New York Times, he was killed by an explosive device that had been placed in his room more than a month in advance of his visit, and detonated once it was confirmed he was inside.

Context: Israel’s security forces remain on high alert as the country braces for a response to the assassinations this week of Shukr and Haniyeh.

  • The IDF has cancelled all leave to ensure they stand at maximum capability and readiness.
  • In addition to increased aerial patrols, dozens of Israeli Air Force fighter jets were waiting on tarmacs, ready to launch an attack or defend against one.
  • With the conversation with leading allies and the rare visit of a UK defence secretary Israel will be hoping that the international coalition that stood with Israel when Iran attacked on April 14 will be similarly effective.
  • On a recent visit to Israel Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, Commander, US Central Command met with the Minister of Defence Gallant, Chief of the General Staff Lt. Gen. Halevi, and other key security figures. The leaders shared intelligence assessments and discussed the security challenges faced in both the southern and northern arenas of Israel as well as broader regional security concerns. The discussions emphasised enhancing defence and technological cooperation to strengthen Israel’s security and bolster deterrence against regional threats.
  • Israel’s confirmation of Deif’s death yesterday is a significant moment in the war. He was directly involved in operational military decisions and led the coordination among the Hamas commanders.
  • However Haniyeh was seen as more of a symbolic figure. The Israeli assessment does not believe his assassination will hamper the hostage negotiations.
  • Due to the IDF’s campaign in Gaza, it seems Hamas’s capabilities have been significantly reduced. The group’s failure to respond forcefully to the assassination to the targeting of either Deif or Haniyeh is testament to this.
  • Haniyeh’s assassinated on Iranian soil, while there as an official guest of the regime is deeply humiliating for the Iran leadership and will therefore elicit a response.
  • In April, when Iran attacked Israel with over 300 missiles and drones, its proxies in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen were not directly involved.
  • The response this time may include a coordinated attack possibly from a range of Iranian proxies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen as well as Lebanon and Iran itself.

Looking ahead: Both the Hamas and Hezbollah leaders will be buried today in Qatar and Lebanon respectively.

  • Hamas has called for a ‘Day or Rage’ and for all mosques around the world to include a memorial prayer for Haniyeh.
  • After the funeral, the Iranian axis could launch an imminent attack on Israel, whilst it could be that they will wait for a few more days.
  • US officials have also raised a scenario in which attacks may take place on US forces in Iraq and Syria.

August 1, 2024

Israel on high alert following assassination of senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders

What’s happened: Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has issued an order for Iran to strike Israel directly, in retaliation for the killing in Tehran of Hamas’s leader, Ismail Haniyeh.

  • In his public statement, Iran’s supreme leader, said: “we see avenging his blood our duty,” because it happened on the territory of the Islamic Republic. He said Israel had set the stage for receiving “a severe punishment.”
  • In a memorial ceremony held in Tehran, the Ayatollah personally led the prayers, while also speaking at the ceremony, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said that the Israeli regime committed a ‘strategic mistake’.
  • In Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed the nation on Wednesday evening and described the current conflict as an “existential war against a stranglehold of terrorist armies and missiles that Iran would like to tighten around our neck.”
  • Speaking of Hezbollah’s number two Shukr, Netanyahu said that he “was directly responsible for the massacre of our dear boys and girls in Majdal Shams. He was responsible for the murder of many other Israeli citizens. He was responsible for the unceasing assault against our citizens in the northern communities over nine months of war.”
  • “He was one of the most wanted terrorists in the world. The US put a $5 million bounty on his head, and for good reason. He was involved in the murder of 241 American soldiers and 58 French soldiers in Beirut in 1983. He was the main liaison between Iran and Hezbollah and he was responsible for the organisation’s missiles,” Netanyahu added.
  • Defence Minister Gallant spoke to his counterpart US Secretary of State Austin who reassured him by saying, “We certainly will help defend Israel. You saw us do that April. You can expect to see us do that again.”
  • The US has also  now deployed at least 12 warships to the region, including the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, amphibious assault teams and over 4,000 Marines and sailors.
  • In a further unconfirmed attack, Syria sources are claiming that Brig Gen Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Forces, has been killed in a targeted attack close to Damascus. Hajizadeh is understood to have been the senior commander who oversaw the Iranian ballistic and cruise missile attack in April against Israel.

Context: While Israel has not formally taken responsibility for the strike in Tehran, the dual targets in Beirut and Tehran within a few hours appears to be an impressive intelligence and operational achievement for Israel.

  • Open speculation remains as to how Haniyeh was killed. Some reports suggest a missile was launched from outside Iran, while others believe the targeted killing was implemented from a closer proximity, implying operatives on the ground.
  • This is the latest targeted strike inside Iran, further exposing the gaps in the regime’s internal security.
  • As a formal guest of the Ayatollah, and staying in a ‘secure residence’ operated by the IRGC, Haniyeh’s death is seen in Iran as constituting a further psychological blow to the regime, which is likely also a factor in their consideration of response.
  • According to the Iranian warning, a response may come directly from Iran – similar to the attack in April in which 300+ drones and missiles were fired at the Israeli home front. Alternatively, the possibility exists that Iran will utilise all of the members of its Axis of Resistance – in Syria, Iraq and Yemen – to carry out an integrated multi-theatre response.
  • Israel will be partly reassured by US Secretary Austin’s support and will hope that the regional alliance between Israel, US and regional partners, known as Middle East Air Defence (MEAD), will be as effective as thwarting the Iranian attack in April.
  • The strikes on Haniyeh and Shukr are the latest example of an Israeli tactic to target the top leadership in Hamas and Hezbollah.
    • In early January, Saleh Al-Arouri, Haniyeh’s deputy and one of the founders of the armed wing of Hamas, was killed in Beirut (although Israel did not take formal responsibility).
    • In mid-July, a strike in Gaza killed Mohammed Deif, head of Hamas’ military wing.  The confirmation of his death was formally recognised by Israel this morning.
    • In March, Marwan Issa, Deif’s deputy was killed.
    • In April, an airstrike in Damascus killed a number of senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers, including its top officer in Syria, Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi.
  • Haniyeh, who has been Hamas’ political leader since 2017, is the highest -profile member of the group to be killed following the October 7 attack and Israel’s retaliatory offensive in Gaza.
  • On October 7th he was recorded praying in celebration of the attacks, and called on West Bank Palestinians to join the battle.
  • Today is the 300th day since October 7th, with 115 hostages remain in Hamas captivity. Inside Israel, hostage families and their supporters continue their campaign to pressure the government to move forward with the deal.
  • According to Prime Minister Netanyahu the extended military campaign serves to increase the pressure on Hamas and to support Israel in the negotiations. Others are concerned Haniyeh’s death makes a deal harder to conclude.
  • In parallel, IDF troops are continuing operational activity in Gaza.
    • In the Rafah area troops are currently operating in the area of Tel al-Sultan, where they dismantled a structure rigged with explosives that was used by Hamas terrorists.
    • In the area of Khan Yunis, launchers loaded with rockets and aimed toward Israeli territory were struck by the IDF.

Looking ahead: Following the memorial ceremony in Tehran, Haniyeh’s body will be flown to Doha for a formal burial.

  • An Iranian response is anticipated in the coming days with Israel on a peak state of alert preparing for any scenario. Israel’s air defences are on maximum alert, the air force jets patrolling the skies and ground forces on heightened vigilance along all the borders.
  • The head of Israeli Air Force, Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar said, “The Israeli Air Force defends and operates in all arenas of the war, enveloping the State of Israel with dozens of aircraft, manned and unmanned, ready and prepared within minutes for any scenario, in any arena. We will act against anyone planning to harm the citizens of the State of Israel, there Is nowhere that is too far for us to strike”
  • So far the Israel’s Home Front command has not yet given any further instructions to the Israeli civilian population.

August 1, 2024

Israel on high alert following assassination of senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders

Israel on high alert following assassination of senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders

What’s happened: Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has issued an order for Iran to strike Israel directly, in retaliation for the killing in Tehran of Hamas’s leader, Ismail Haniyeh.

  • In his public statement, Iran’s supreme leader, said: “we see avenging his blood our duty,” because it happened on the territory of the Islamic Republic. He said Israel had set the stage for receiving “a severe punishment.”
  • In a memorial ceremony held in Tehran, the Ayatollah personally led the prayers, while also speaking at the ceremony, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said that the Israeli regime committed a ‘strategic mistake’.
  • In Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed the nation on Wednesday evening and described the current conflict as an “existential war against a stranglehold of terrorist armies and missiles that Iran would like to tighten around our neck.”
  • Speaking of Hezbollah’s number two Shukr, Netanyahu said that he “was directly responsible for the massacre of our dear boys and girls in Majdal Shams. He was responsible for the murder of many other Israeli citizens. He was responsible for the unceasing assault against our citizens in the northern communities over nine months of war.”
  • “He was one of the most wanted terrorists in the world. The US put a $5 million bounty on his head, and for good reason. He was involved in the murder of 241 American soldiers and 58 French soldiers in Beirut in 1983. He was the main liaison between Iran and Hezbollah and he was responsible for the organisation’s missiles,” Netanyahu added.
  • Defence Minister Gallant spoke to his counterpart US Secretary of State Austin who reassured him by saying, “We certainly will help defend Israel. You saw us do that April. You can expect to see us do that again.”
  • The US has also  now deployed at least 12 warships to the region, including the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, amphibious assault teams and over 4,000 Marines and sailors.
  • In a further unconfirmed attack, Syria sources are claiming that Brig Gen Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Forces, has been killed in a targeted attack close to Damascus. Hajizadeh is understood to have been the senior commander who oversaw the Iranian ballistic and cruise missile attack in April against Israel.

Context: While Israel has not formally taken responsibility for the strike in Tehran, the dual targets in Beirut and Tehran within a few hours appears to be an impressive intelligence and operational achievement for Israel.

  • Open speculation remains as to how Haniyeh was killed. Some reports suggest a missile was launched from outside Iran, while others believe the targeted killing was implemented from a closer proximity, implying operatives on the ground.
  • This is the latest targeted strike inside Iran, further exposing the gaps in the regime’s internal security.
  • As a formal guest of the Ayatollah, and staying in a ‘secure residence’ operated by the IRGC, Haniyeh’s death is seen in Iran as constituting a further psychological blow to the regime, which is likely also a factor in their consideration of response.
  • According to the Iranian warning, a response may come directly from Iran – similar to the attack in April in which 300+ drones and missiles were fired at the Israeli home front. Alternatively, the possibility exists that Iran will utilise all of the members of its Axis of Resistance – in Syria, Iraq and Yemen – to carry out an integrated multi-theatre response.
  • Israel will be partly reassured by US Secretary Austin’s support and will hope that the regional alliance between Israel, US and regional partners, known as Middle East Air Defence (MEAD), will be as effective as thwarting the Iranian attack in April.
  • The strikes on Haniyeh and Shukr are the latest example of an Israeli tactic to target the top leadership in Hamas and Hezbollah.
    • In early January, Saleh Al-Arouri, Haniyeh’s deputy and one of the founders of the armed wing of Hamas, was killed in Beirut (although Israel did not take formal responsibility).
    • In mid-July, a strike in Gaza killed Mohammed Deif, head of Hamas’ military wing.  The confirmation of his death was formally recognised by Israel this morning.
    • In March, Marwan Issa, Deif’s deputy was killed.
    • In April, an airstrike in Damascus killed a number of senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers, including its top officer in Syria, Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi.
  • Haniyeh, who has been Hamas’ political leader since 2017, is the highest -profile member of the group to be killed following the October 7 attack and Israel’s retaliatory offensive in Gaza.
  • On October 7th he was recorded praying in celebration of the attacks, and called on West Bank Palestinians to join the battle.
  • Today is the 300th day since October 7th, with 115 hostages remain in Hamas captivity. Inside Israel, hostage families and their supporters continue their campaign to pressure the government to move forward with the deal.
  • According to Prime Minister Netanyahu the extended military campaign serves to increase the pressure on Hamas and to support Israel in the negotiations. Others are concerned Haniyeh’s death makes a deal harder to conclude.
  • In parallel, IDF troops are continuing operational activity in Gaza.
    • In the Rafah area troops are currently operating in the area of Tel al-Sultan, where they dismantled a structure rigged with explosives that was used by Hamas terrorists.
    • In the area of Khan Yunis, launchers loaded with rockets and aimed toward Israeli territory were struck by the IDF.

Looking ahead: Following the memorial ceremony in Tehran, Haniyeh’s body will be flown to Doha for a formal burial.

  • An Iranian response is anticipated in the coming days with Israel on a peak state of alert preparing for any scenario. Israel’s air defences are on maximum alert, the air force jets patrolling the skies and ground forces on heightened vigilance along all the borders.
  • The head of Israeli Air Force, Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar said, “The Israeli Air Force defends and operates in all arenas of the war, enveloping the State of Israel with dozens of aircraft, manned and unmanned, ready and prepared within minutes for any scenario, in any arena. We will act against anyone planning to harm the citizens of the State of Israel, there Is nowhere that is too far for us to strike”
  • So far the Israel’s Home Front command has not yet given any further instructions to the Israeli civilian population.

July 31, 2024

Senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders assassinated

What’s happened: The IDF has confirmed it conducted a strike on Hezbollah number two Fuad Shukr last night, while Hamas have confirmed that its overseas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in the early hours of this morning.

In Beirut: First, in southern Beirut at around 7.40pm yesterday, high-ranking Hezbollah official Shukr was killed in an air strike in the city’s Dahiya Quarter.

  • IDF Spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said: “This evening, the IDF carried out a pinpoint attack in Beirut and killed Fuad Shukr, also known as Said Mohsin, the most senior commander in the Hezbollah terrorist organisation and the head of its strategic array. Mohsin also served as the right-hand man and adviser on the planning and prosecution of the war to Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah.”
  • It is thought that the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate successfully located Shukr in an eight-story apartment building, advising the Israeli Air Force of his whereabouts and of the opportunity for a strike. Lebanese media reported three killed in the attack, including two children, and at least 74 injured.

In Tehran: Later, at 2.00am local time, the head of Hamas’s Political Bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in the Iranian capital, seemingly by a precision-guided missile fired directly through the window of the apartment in the military veterans building in which he was staying while attending the newly-elected Iranian president’s swearing-in ceremony.

  • Unlike the strike on Shukr, Israel is yet to comment on the assassination of Haniyeh. Hamas, confirming Haniyeh’s death, said he had been killed “in a treacherous Zionist strike…” The office of the Palestinian President Abbas, whose Fatah faction is a rival to Hamas, said he “strongly condemned the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, deeming it a cowardly act and a serious escalation.”
  • The New York Times reports this morning, citing two senior Iranian officials, that Iran was holding an emergency meeting of the Supreme National Security Council in response to Haniyeh’s assassination.
  • Iranian sources are also briefing that the missile which killed Haniyeh was fired from outside of Iran.

Context: Both assassinations are indicative of Israel’s ability to locate and strike Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. They testify to the sophistication of Israel’s intelligence and its ability to conduct precision strikes.

  • Shukr was targeted for being ultimately responsible for Saturday’s Hezbollah rocket strike on Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, which killed 12 children and injured 40 others. A Hezbollah veteran of over 40 years, Shukr was also thought to have played a key role in the 1983 bombing of the US Marine Corps Barracks in Beirut which killed 241 US military personnel and wounded 128 others.
  • In recent years, as head of Hezbollah’s Strategic Unit, Shukr had assumed responsibility for Hezbollah’s weapons programme, including the procurement of precise-guided missiles, cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles, long-range rockets, and UAVs.
  • Yediot Ahronot’s Ronen Bergman, quotes a high-ranking Israel official saying of Shukr, “He is Nasrallah’s secret-bearer and the person responsible for the organization’s military buildup. After Mustafa Badreddine’s death, he took some of his powers and his standing became stronger. He was considered to have very close relations with Quds Force officials in the Revolutionary Guard, and… will be perceived by the Iranians as a major loss. He is considered to be intelligent and judicious, a man in the shadows who operated professionally and over a very long period of time.”
  • Israeli media also quotes Muhammad Ali Al-Husseini, secretary-general of the Islamic Arab Council in Lebanon, saying that Fuad Shukr had been the most important operational figure in Hezbollah. He said that in terms of hierarchy, Fuad Shukr had been number one, even before Nasrallah, on the security and operational level.
  • During the over nine months of escalated conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, strikes on the Lebanese capital have been rare. The strike on the Shukr was the first since a January strike killed Hamas’s deputy leader abroad Saleh al-Arouri.
  • Earlier this week, the Israeli Security Cabinet empowered Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant to decide on Israel’s response to the Majdal Shams attack, enabling quick decision-making and maintaining the element of surprise.
  • Israel is thought to have advised Washington of the strike in advance. US State Department deputy spokesman Vedant Patel later said that “we’re continuing to work toward a diplomatic resolution that would allow Israeli and Lebanese civilians to return to their homes and live in peace and security. We certainly want to avoid any kind of escalation.”
  • Patel reiterated that US support for Israel remained “ironclad”, that “Israel has every right to defend itself”, and “certainly faces threats like no other country does in that region of the world.”
  • For fuller context and background on Hezbollah, the scale of the threat it poses, its ideology, history, and place within the Iranian axis, see BICOM’s recent briefing paper.
  • For Israel – in particular the Mossad – to have the local intelligence in Tehran to have been able to locate the exact room in which Haniyeh was staying represents a spectacular success. It speaks to the sophistication of Mossad’s penetration of Iran, while the precision required to target him through his apartment window speaks to the sophistication and precision Israel is able to call upon for such targeted assassinations.
  • It is also important that Israel chose to act in a relatively narrow moment of opportunity while Haniyeh was away from his Qatari base. It is to be assumed that Israel would also have possessed the intelligence and operational capacity to strike Haniyeh in Qatar. However, such an assassination would have been likely ruled out due to its likely impact on Israel-US relations, and to Qatar’s dual status as a backer and host of Hamas, on the one hand, and a mediator on the question of the hostages, on the other.
  • Haniyeh is the most senior Hamas official killed since the star of the war in Gaza. He had been based in Qatar since replacing Khaled Mashal (himself the previous subject of an unsuccessful Israeli assassination attempt) in 2017. There, Haniyeh had been the most senior of Hamas’s overseas leadership – distinct from the local Gazan leadership headed by October 7th mastermind Yahya Sinwar. Three of Haniyeh’s sons and four of his grandchildren were killed in Israeli strikes in Gaza in April.
  • Considered a relative pragmatist within Hamas, Haniyeh was a key figure in coordinating the Sunni Hamas’s relations with the Iranian Shiite axis.
  • The assassinations serve as a further warning to the rest of the Hezbollah and Hamas leaderships that they may well be future targets. Over the last nine months, Israel has conducted several targeted assassinations, including Hamas’s Gazan number two Mohamed Deif, al-Arouri, and senior IRGC officer Mohammad Reza Zahedi.

Looking ahead: While Israel will brace for a possible response from Hezbollah, the IDF confirmed that “there are no changes in the Home Front Command defensive guidelines. The IDF is currently conducting a situational assessment. If any changes will be made, an update will be released on the IDF and Home Front Command’s platforms.”

July 31, 2024

The Hezbollah Threat

Israel is weighing its response to Hezbollah’s August 27th rocket attack on Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, which claimed the lives of 12 children and wounded 40 others.

The attack was the deadliest in over nine months of escalated conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, since the Iran-backed terror group joined Hamas’s fight against Israel on October 8th, 2023.

This BICOM paper analyses the overall severity of the threat posed to Israel by Hezbollah, and provides essential context on its military capacity, ideology, history, and place within the Iranian ‘Axis of Resistance’.

July 29, 2024

Israel considers response to deadly Hezbollah attack on Golan Heights

What’s happened: Israelis are bracing for a significant escalation in the north, following Saturday’s deadly Hezbollah strike on a football field in the Golan Heights which killed 12 children.

  • The rocket attack, which also left 40 injured, targeted the Majdal Shams community late Saturday afternoon. Despite Hezbollah denials of responsibility, the IDF concluded that the attack was carried out by the Iranian-backed group, using an Iranian Falaq-1 rocket with a warhead of over 110 pounds of explosives, fired from southeastern Lebanon.
  • The US echoed Israel’s attribution of the attack to Hezbollah, National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson saying “it was their rocket, and launched from an area they control… Our support for Israel’s security is ironclad,” Watson added, “and unwavering against all Iran-backed threats, including Hezbollah,”  which, “started firing at Israel on October 8, claiming solidarity with Hamas, another terror organisation in Iran’s so-called ‘Axis of Resistance.’”
  • UK Ambassador to Israel Simon Walters wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that it was “especially horrific that the target was children playing football. Our hearts go to all the families of all of those who were killed or injured, and to the entire Druze population.” Condemnations of Hezbollah also followed from other western allies, including Germany, France, and Canada.
  • The 12 fatalities were all aged between 10 and 20 and all from the Druze community. They were: Ameer Rabeea Abu Saleh, 16, Iseel Nasha’at Ayoub, 12, Hazem Akram Abu Saleh, 15, Milad Muadad Alsha’ar, 10, Alma Ayman Fakher Eldin, 11, Naji Taher Alhalabi, 11, Johnny Wadeea Ibrahim, 13, Yazan Nayeif Abu Saleh, 12, Fajer Laith Abu Saleh, 16, Vinees Adham Alsafadi, 11 Nathem Fakher Saeb, 16, and Jifara Ibrahim, 11.
  • The Saleh family lost four brothers in the attack.
  • Of the injured, two children remain in critical condition, and one in moderate condition. All have sustained abdominal injuries, chest injuries, and limb fractures.
  • Israeli leaders swiftly promised a firm response. “I can say that the State of Israel will not allow this incident to pass quietly. We are not going to go about business as usual,” said Prime Minister Netanyahu.
  • IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said, “this incident will lead to a very, very significant response. We’re going to hit Hezbollah hard; we’re going to take Hezbollah back in time. We’re going to bring the families back to their homes in the north safely.”
  • The Foreign Ministry said Hezbollah had “crossed all red lines” with the attack. “This is not an army fighting another army, rather it is a terrorist organisation deliberately shooting at civilians.”
  • Netanyahu cut short his visit to the US to return to Israel. The security cabinet then met yesterday afternoon to discuss Israel’s response, and authorised Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant to decide on the “manner and timing” of Israel’s retaliation. Far-right ministers Ben Gvir and Smotrich, who have repeatedly and loudly called for tougher Israeli policy on all fronts, abstained from the vote.
  • Speaking in Tokyo, US Secretary of State Blinken “emphasize[d] (Israel’s) right to defend its citizens and our determination to make sure that they’re able to do that,” while adding that “we also don’t want to see the conflict escalate. We don’t want to see it spread. It’s so important that we help defuse that conflict, not only prevent it from escalating, prevent it from spreading, but to defuse it because you have so many people in both countries, in both Israel and Lebanon, who’ve been displaced from their homes.”
  • Limited Israeli responses against Hezbollah operatives have already begun. Reports this morning claim that two died and three were injured in an Israeli drone strike outside the southern Lebanese town of Shaqra. In a separate attack, one person was killed and four wounded in Israeli airstrikes on a car and motorcycle driving between the towns of Mays al-Jabal and Shaqra in southern Lebanon.
  • Lebanese and Palestinian sources also reported heavy shelling in the town of Houla this morning. The IDF also shot down a drone which crossed into the Western Galilee from Lebanon. The intrusion prompted alarms in Yaara and Adamit, Israeli towns near the Lebanese border.
  • In a further statement of intent, earlier on Saturday, Hezbollah also launched a drone towards Israel’s Karish offshore natural gas platforms. The drone was intercepted by the Israeli Navy’s Saar 6 missile boat, but the attack served as a warning that Hezbollah has the capacity to launch more precise weapons to target Israeli energy infrastructure.

Context: The attack on Saturday was the deadliest strike on civilians carried out by Hezbollah since the Second Lebanon War, and the greatest loss of civilians on the Israeli side since October 7th.

  • The initial Hezbollah denial is likely a result of their embarrassment at killing Druze children and an awareness that they have significantly escalated the simmering conflict by striking civilians. It appears likely that Hezbollah fired heavy but inaccurate rockets aimed at the IDF base on Mount Hermon, situated above Majdal Shams, and that one of the rockets overshot its intended target, causing devastation.
  • Sirens were sounded in the community, but due to the close proximity and a matter of seconds there was no time to reach a protected space.
  • The Druze of the Golan have a complicated relationship with the State of Israel. Taken over in the 1967 Six Day War, many held onto their Syrian identity despite Israel formally extending its laws, jurisdiction and administration to the Golan Heights in 1981.
  • Druze of the Golan have the option of applying for Israeli citizenship, many more have done so in the last decade and half after observing at close quarters the regime violence during the Syrian civil war.
  • The attack in Majdal Shams will also raise tension inside Lebanon and Syria, which both hold significant Druze communities and place Hezbollah in a difficult domestic predicament.
  • Druze are traditionally loyal to their home country, hence residual loyalty of some Golan Druze to Syria, whilst  many of their Druze brethren in the Galilee proudly serve in the IDF and are fully integrated into Israeli society.
  • The Israeli security cabinet decision to empower the prime minister and defence minister to decide on the Israeli response serves two purposes; it cuts the need to reconvene the cabinet, thereby adding to the element of surprise. Secondly, it excludes the more extreme government ministers from the decision-making process.
  • Despite significant damage, Hezbollah attacks and Israeli responses have been carefully weighted, with both sides understanding the ‘rules of the game’, whereby fatal strikes are reciprocated but with an emphasis on avoiding the escalation to all-out war.

Looking ahead: In calibrating its response, Israel will need to carefully calibrate between a forceful response which underlines that attacks of this kind cannot go unanswered, with a desire to prevent further escalation.

  • Among the possible responses being considered are:
    • Targeting a strategic Hezbollah site: a weapons depot or military infrastructure;
    • A strike on Lebanese civilian infrastructure, such as an energy depot or transport hub. An attack of this nature would serve the purpose of prompting the Lebanese government to act to restrain Hezbollah. However, it also runs the risk of uniting Lebanon’s various communities behind Hezbollah.
    • An attack on Hezbollah sites in Beirut which, with the exception of the targeted strike on Hamas leader al-Arouri in January, have largely been avoided.
    • Targeted assassinations of senior Hezbollah figures.

July 26, 2024

Hostage families more optimistic after meeting with Biden and Netanyahu

Hostage families more optimistic after meeting with Biden and Netanyahu

What’s happened: Following his speech to Congress on Wednesday evening, Prime Minister Netanyahu continued his US trip yesterday by meeting with President Biden, Vice-President Harris, and other US officials.

  • Biden and Netanyahu met for an hour and half, devoted largely to the hostage deal, before being joined by hostage families. Netanyahu then left to meet with Harris, while the families remained in conversation with Biden.
  • The White House said that Biden relayed to Netanyahu “the need to close the remaining gaps” on a hostage deal, in order to enable “a durable end to the war in Gaza”.
  • Biden also “reaffirmed the US ironclad commitment to Israel’s security against all threats from Iran and its proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis,” while expressing concern over “the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, the need to remove any obstacles to the flow of aid and restoring basic services for those in need and the critical importance of protecting civilian lives during military operations.”
  • Netanyahu and Harris then met for 40 minutes, after which Harris stated that they had had a “frank and constructive” discussion, and that “there has been hopeful movement” on a hostage deal.
  • Afterwards, Harris similarly reinforced her own “ironclad support” and “unwavering commitment” to Israel, before making clear her “serious concern about the dire humanitarian situation there with over two million people are facing high levels of food insecurity,” she said.
  • “What has happened in Gaza over the past nine months is devastating. The images of dead children and desperate hungry people fleeing for safety — sometimes displaced for the second, third or fourth time. We cannot look away in the face of these tragedies. We cannot allow ourselves to become numb to the suffering and I will not be silent.”
  • Hostage families emerged from their meetings with Biden and Netanyahu cautiously optimistic on the chances of a deal. “After asking a series of difficult questions and getting answers to all of them… we feel probably more optimistic than we have since the first round of releases in late November,” hostage Sagui Dekel-Chen’s father Jonathan said.
  • Adi Alexander, father of hostage Idan Alexander said the families had asked Netanyahu if he had added new conditions to the proposal to Hamas, to which the prime minister replied “no”.
  • Alexander also said that Biden had said “he will turn entirely over the next half-year to solving this problem, and that he is basically free of all political pressure. He feels great physically, and he’ll do all he can to make progress on this issue.”
  • In parallel to Netanyahu’s visit, IDF troops have continued operational activity in Gaza in the areas of Khan Younis, Rafah and the central Strip, where they targeted Hamas fighters and terrorist infrastructure.
  • Once again, the IDF presented further evidence of Hamas operating out of UNRWA facilities, even from inside the declared humanitarian zone. Yesterday, Hamas fired rockets which failed, resulting in two Palestinian deaths and multiple injuries. Following the recovery earlier this week of five hostage bodies, the IDF confirmed that they had been found in a tunnel, also in the humanitarian zone.

Context: Yesterday’s meetings followed Netanyahu’s speech to a joint session of Congress on Wednesday evening, in which the prime minister aimed to rebuild bipartisan support for the Israel-US relationship. (For more, see BICOM’s Morning Brief.)

  • As part of that charm offensive, Netanyahu was careful to express his appreciation of Biden’s steadfast support of Israel on October 7th; his moving of two US aircraft carriers into the Mediterranean as a force projection against Hezbollah intent; his powerful visit to Israel shortly after; and his leadership of a multi-force coalition – including British and Jordanian involvement – which protected Israel from direct Iranian attack on April 14th.
  • Netanyahu echoed this praise yesterday, saying “Mr. President, we’ve known each other for 40 years… I want to thank you for 50 years of public service and 50 years of support for the State of Israel. I look forward to discussing with you today and working with you in the months ahead on the great issues before us.”
  • Prior to her meeting with Netanyahu, Harris put out a strong statement condemning the actions of pro-Palestinian protesters in Washington the day before. Harris called them “despicable acts by unpatriotic protestors and dangerous hate-fuelled rhetoric,” and condemned “any individuals associating with the brutal terrorist organisation Hamas, which has vowed to annihilate the State of Israel and kill Jews. Pro-Hamas graffiti and rhetoric is abhorrent and we must not tolerate it in our nation.”
  • Harris’s unequivocal condemnation of Hamas echoed a statement earlier in the week from State Department official Matthew Miller, who said, “Hamas has not renounced terrorism; it has not renounced the use of violence to achieve its political aims… there’s no one that has brought more pain and suffering to the people in Gaza than Hamas through their decisions.”
  • Hostage negotiations have continued over recent weeks, under the broad framework of what became known as the “Biden proposal”, despite its originating in Israel. Some of the unresolved issues have included:
    • Hamas’s demands that Israel vacate the Philadelphia Corridor between Gaza and Egypt. Israel has maintained that some kind of presence in the corridor is essential to prevent the resumption of weapons smuggling into Gaza through Egypt.
    • Israel’s need for mechanisms to be in place to prevent Hamas fighters moving north along with the civilian population.
    • Israel’s insistence on a veto regarding the release of certain ‘heavyweight’ Palestinian prisoners.
    • Israel’s insistence on receiving a list of names of the hostages to be released by Hamas.
  • It is highly likely that Hamas will instinctively resist the solutions Israeli delegates will propose on these issues. However, there is hope that the combination of the pressure Israel has brought to bear on the organisation through its military campaign and diplomatic pressure led by the US, along with Qatar and Egypt will persuade Hamas leaders that this is the best deal it can expect.
  • Ahead of his meeting with Netanyahu later today, former President and current Republican candidate Trump spoke to Fox News yesterday. He said of the war that if he was elected he would want Netanyahu to “finish up, and get it done quickly.”
  • Jon Polin, father of hostage Hersh, pointed to the unanimity across the US political spectrum on the need to secure a deal now. “This is a special moment,” he said, “in which President Biden, Vice President Harris and Trump — anyone who could be president — are aligned in the statement that there must be a deal now.”

Looking ahead: Netanyahu is set to meet with former President and current Republican candidate Trump today.

  • Following the meeting between Netanyahu and Biden, a final text of the Israeli outline for a hostage deal is expected to be handed to Israeli negotiators. Mossad Director Barnea will then travel for talks aimed at finalising a deal, where it is anticipated he will be joined by CIA Director Burns.
  • Following recent reports of a China-brokered reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah, State Department official Miller also ruled out US support for Hamas playing any future role in Palestinian governance. “There can’t be a role for a terrorist organisation,” he said.

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