The north: One Israeli was killed and at least seven wounded in the northern city of Safed following a rocket barrage fired from Lebanon this morning.

• Reports claim at least eight rockets were fired at the city, with the IDF confirming that the launches on Safed targeted the Northern Command headquarters.
• Rocket sirens sounded in the Galilee for the third time in under 15 minutes this morning in what appeared to be one of the heaviest barrages on northern Israel since fighting began.
• The Israeli military said Tuesday night that the Air Force had attacked two Hezbollah military installations in southern Lebanon.
• According to the statement, one of the positions had been used to fire missiles at Israel. The army also said that it identified two rocket launches from Lebanese territory earlier Tuesday and that the missiles fell in unpopulated areas.

Hostage deal talks: An Israeli delegation was in Cairo yesterday to discuss a possible ceasefire and hostage release deal with Hamas.

• Talks were attended by Mossad Director Barnea, Shin Bet Director Bar, the prime minister’s political adviser Falk, CIA Director Burns, Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani and Director of the Egyptian General Intelligence Kamel.
• A senior Egyptian source said that the atmosphere at the summit had been positive. Yet while some progress was reported in the talks, no “breakthrough” is said to have been achieved.
• A source in Cairo that Israel and Hamas remain deeply divided over several issues.
• The meeting reportedly focused on formulating a “final draft” of an agreement that would include a six-week ceasefire with a promise that during this time the sides would continue to hold negotiations on a permanent ceasefire.
• The most problematic issue was the number of terrorists who would be released in exchange for each hostage.
• A high-ranking source in Cairo said that Egypt had prepared a draft for a hostage deal but Israel did not agree to the list of Palestinian prisoners who would be released in exchange for the hostages, in keeping with the ratio of three prisoners per hostage.
• A few hours after the Israeli delegation left the Cairo conference, a Hamas delegation arrived, including Hamas representative Khalil al-Hayya.
• Hamas Political Bureau Head Haniyeh met with Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian in Doha yesterday. Haniyeh said that any agreement between Hamas and Israel must include a cease-fire and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, in addition to a prisoner and hostage exchange deal.

Gaza Strip: IDF Chief of Staff Halevi said yesterday “In the northern Gaza Strip, we are returning to every place where there is terrorism, we kill more enemies and destroy more terrorist infrastructure. In the southern Gaza Strip, in Khan Yunis, we are reaching places that the enemy never imagined that we would reach. We have so far killed more than 10,000 terrorists, among them many commanders. This is what it means to dismantle Hamas.”

• Five Israeli soldiers have been killed this week – a reserve battalion commander, an officer and a soldier, as well as two soldiers from the elite Maglan Unit. The reservists were killed in an explosion in a booby-trapped house; the Maglan troops were hit by anti-tank missiles. Every day Hamas is losing dozens of fighters in battles.
• The IDF has released footage purporting to show Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in a tunnel in the aftermath of October 7th. For more details, see Israeli Media Summary below.

Context: This morning’s rockets come after a 15-year-old boy was seriously wounded and his mother moderately wounded by rockets fired from Lebanon towards Kiryat Shmona in northern Israel yesterday.

• Yesterday, France submitted a proposal to Lebanon to secure a ceasefire and resolve Lebanon’s border disputes with Israel. The proposal would see Hezbollah withdraw roughly ten kilometres from the Israeli border (less than it is commanded to do by UN Resolution 1701), and to dismantle its military infrastructure within that zone. Some 15,000 Lebanese army troops would be deployed in the area to ensure future compliance with the buffer zone. In response, Hezbollah said it would not comment until a ceasefire had been effected in Gaza.
• The Qatari newspaper Al-Araby Al-Jadeed citied an Egyptian source saying that the Israeli delegation arrived in Cairo with a decision to invade Rafah if no agreement with Hamas were to be reached. The source said that the main point of contention was about a permanent ceasefire.
• The Israeli delegation left for Cairo after extensive deliberation on whether to attend, after Hamas had previously presented demands that Netanyahu described as delusional.
• Kan News reported that Prime Minister Netanyahu rejected a new plan for a hostage deal drafted by Mossad Director Barnea, Shin Bet Director Bar and Maj. Gen. (res.) Alon. Netanyahu decided that the three of them would go to Cairo mainly in order to listen. As a result, Maj. Gen. Alon decided to remain in Israel.
• For the first time, Netanyahu’s adviser was sent to the talks, most likely because of other subjects that would be raised in the talks, such as Rafah and the Philadelphi Corridor.
• The IDF has yet to destroy dozens of kilometres of tunnels in the Khan Yunis area, but the so-called strategic compounds, local headquarters and underground residences have apparently been largely mapped, and the army is preparing for their systematic destruction.

Looking ahead: Talks in Cairo are expected to continue in the days ahead, involving lower-level officials who will continue discussing a new framework for a potential hostage deal.

• It appears that Khan Yunis will remain the centre of operations for another few weeks. At the same time, Israel is preparing for an assault on Rafah and has been issuing threats and declarations to that effect. The US is not trying to impose a veto on an operation, but wants to ensure Israel upholds its promise that the majority of the civilian population will be safely evacuated in advance.
• The talk about a seemingly imminent offensive is designed mainly to put pressure on Arab countries in hopes that they can convince Hamas to start looking for a way to end the war.

* This is a trial of a new BICOM News in Brief format. We welcome feedback to: [email protected].

1. Two people were injured by rocket fire from Lebanon this morning. Several rockets were fired into the Upper Galilee, including at Kiryat Shmona, where a 15-year-old boy was seriously wounded. His 47-year-old mother is injured in moderate to serious condition. As usual, the IDF returned fire to the sources of fire. Since October 7th, Hezbollah has launched over 2,000 attempted attacks on Israel. 15 Israelis have been killed and around 80,000 who live closest to the border have been internally displaced. A similar number of Lebanese have been displaced, while Hezbollah has lost 193 combatants since the war began.

2. France has submitted a fresh proposal to Lebanon to secure a ceasefire and resolve Lebanon’s border disputes with Israel. The proposal would see Hezbollah withdraw roughly ten kilometres from the Israeli border (less than it is commanded to do by UN Resolution 1701), and to dismantle its military infrastructure within that zone. Some 15,000 Lebanese army troops would be deployed in the area to ensure future compliance with the buffer zone. In response, Hezbollah said it would not comment until a ceasefire had been effected in Gaza.

3. Fighting continues in Khan Yunis. According to the IDF, “troops killed over 30 terrorists and strengthened operational control of the area with targeted raids on terrorist infrastructure, sniper ambushes and patrols.” In another incident, troops identified a number of Hamas operatives transferring explosive devices on a motorcycle, that were subsequently targeted by an aircraft.  In central Gaza, IDF troops killed approximately ten fighters over the past day. Overall the IDF says it has killed over 10,000 combatants in Gaza, in addition to around 1,000 terrorists inside Israel on October 7th.

4. Three IDF reservists were killed in action on Monday fighting in the southern Gaza Strip. The soldiers were killed by an explosive device that had been planted inside a booby-trapped building. Several other soldiers were wounded in the incident as well, two of whom are hospitalised in serious condition. Since the IDF launched their ground offensive 232 IDF soldiers have been killed. According to the Hamas controlled health ministry in Gaza, over 27,000 Palestinians have been killed. However these figures do not distinguish between civilians and combatants and cannot be independently verified.

5. Diplomatic efforts continue to release the hostages. 134 hostages remain in captivity, now for 130 days. A delegation led by Mossad Director David Barnea will visit Cairo today in an attempt to advance negotiations over a hostage deal. They are expected to meet with the director of the American CIA, the Qatari prime minister and the director of Egyptian intelligence. For more details on the parameters of the talk click here.

6. Israeli forces are preparing to expand their offensive into Rafah. The move is deemed necessary in order to destroy and dismantle the remaining four (out of 24) Hamas brigades, to block the smuggling routes from Egypt, and to continue to hunt down the Hamas leadership. Palestinian sources have reported on civilian convoys beginning to leave Rafah heading north. For more details, see yesterday’s BICOM Morning Brief.

7. Earlier this morning rocket sirens were heard in the community of Netiv Ha’asara on the Gaza border. Over 11,000 rockets have been fired out of Gaza since October, with an estimated 10-20 percent falling short and landing inside Gaza  .

8. Israel faces further international pressure to end its operations in Gaza. China today called for Israel to “stop its military operation as soon as possible, make every effort to avoid innocent civilian casualties… to prevent a more serious humanitarian disaster in the Rafah area.” EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell, meanwhile, called for Israel’s allies to reduce arms supplies to Israel. “If you believe that too many people are being killed, maybe you should provide less arms in order to prevent so many people being killed,” he told a Brussels press conference.

9. Yesterday morning’s successful mission to rescue two Israeli hostages in Gaza is being hailed as an extraordinary tactical achievement. “The A+ grade fails to describe the level of precision and polished performance by all the forces involved,” says Yediot Ahronot’s Yossi Yehoshua. Hamas, meanwhile, tried to minimise the achievement by saying that the hostages were held by civilians and that a successful rescue could never have been accomplished had they been held by Hamas fighters.

10. The Israeli Foreign Ministry will be holding consultations following the US and the UK announcement to impose sanctions against four West Bank settlers. According to a statement by the British embassy in Israel, the sanctions include economic and travel restrictions, and are designed to fight the ongoing violence by settlers that threatens stability in the West Bank. Prime Minister Netanyahu related to the issue in his meeting last week with US Secretary of State Blinken. He said in a statement that the “order is very grave. If they were to use that order equally, they would have to use it against thousands of Palestinians.”

11. This morning, a terrorist attempted a car ramming attack on civilians at the Gush Etzion Junction. Israeli troops fired on and pursued the assailant, who was apprehended and taken for questioning. A knife was found in the vehicle. No injuries were reported. On Sunday there was an attempted stabbing attack in the same area. For more West Bank analysis click here.

12. The Houthis yesterday fired two missiles at a vessel in the Red Sea. The Greek-owned, Iran-bound vessel sustained minor damage and no injuries to the crew, said US CENTCOM. This incident marks the first time the Houthis have targeted a vessel headed for Iran, with some analysts briefing that it could be a show of independence from their Iranian patron from the group. Overall there have been over 70 maritime attacks from Yemen since October 7th.

** If you are a journalist and would like more details, please contact Richard Pater on [email protected].

Netanyahu dismisses “delusional” Hamas proposal

Hostage deal: Israeli and US officials have commented publicly on Hamas’s counter-proposal to the latest hostage deal.

• Prime Minister Netanyahu described Hamas’s demands as “delusional”. He added that “ongoing military pressure is a necessary condition for freeing the hostages.”
• “Surrender to the… demands made by Hamas, which we’ve now heard, not only won’t bring about the hostages’ release, it will only invite another massacre; it will invite a terrible disaster on the State of Israel that not a single one of our citizens is prepared to accept.”
• Defence Minister Gallant said that Hamas’s position would “lead to an extension of the war, and our troops to additional places in Gaza, soon.”
• US Secretary of State Blinken, on a visit to Israel, was more circumspect, saying that “while there are some clear nonstarters in Hamas response, we think it creates space for an agreement to be reached and we’ll work at that relentlessly till we get there.”
• Blinken “made clear that Israel is fully justified in confronting Hamas and other terrorist organisations – that’s why the US has done more than any other country to support Israel right to ensure October 7 doesn’t happen again,” he said.
• Blinken also said that during his discussions with Netanyahu he raised “profound concerns about actions and rhetoric, including from government officials, that inflame tension and undercut international support and place greater strains on Israel’s security.”
• The “hostages have been dehumanised every day since,” their capture, he said, “but that’s not a license to dehumanise others.”
• On aid, while recognising that Israel has acted so that “more assistance today than ever is moving into Gaza from more places than any time since October 7,” Blinken also said that the US “calls on Israel to open Erez crossing in northern Gaza, expedite flow of aid from Jordan, strengthen de-confliction and improve coordination with humanitarian providers, and must ensure delivery of life-saving assistance is not blocked for any reason by anyone.”

Gaza: Israeli troops have captured dozens of suspected terrorists in western Khan Yunis over the past 24 hours, including two who took part in the October 7^th massacre.

• Elsewhere in the city, 20 Hamas members were killed in an Israeli offensive against a Hamas site.

West Bank: A wanted Palestinian was killed during a military operation in the Nur al-Shams refugee camp in the West Bank. According to the IDF, the casualty is Muazzam Ali, a “senior activist” in the camp, who was suspected of shooting at Israeli forces and involvement in terrorist activity.

• A Palestinian gunmen was also shot dead after opening fire at Israeli troops near the West Bank town of Dayr Sharaf.
• Two more Palestinians were injured, potentially by the assailant’s gunfire. No troops were injured, though one was hit on the helmet by a bullet.

Context: According to Reuters and Israeli media reports, Hamas proposed a three-stage ceasefire/hostage release plan, each stage lasting 45 days (for more details on the Hamas response, see yesterday’s BICOM Morning Brief):

• Haaretz reports today that Hamas is also seeking to link the hostage release to demands over the protocol for Jewish entry to Jerusalem’s Temple Mount complex.
• Hamas’s proposed amendments to the hostage deal proposal also aim to provide explicitly for the end of the war.
• According to a draft document seen by Reuters¸ implementation of the second phase of hostage releases would not happen until “indirect talks over the requirements needed to end the mutual military operations and return to complete calm” had been held.
• With Israel continuing to insist that no deal will be reached that provides explicitly for the end of the war before the defeat of Hamas, the US and Qatar are now expected to apply pressure to Hamas in a bid to force it to scale back its demands.
• Israel maintains that the best way to force Hamas to do this is through maintaining the military pressure in Gaza.
• Despite differences within the security cabinet, if a reasonable deal is ultimately agreed, it is thought that a majority of the ministers will vote in favour of it, including the prime minister.
• Blinken’s remarks, during a press conference in Tel Aviv, were perhaps the most publicly critical of Israel he has been since October 7.
• This morning, Blinken met with war cabinet ministers Gantz and Eisenkot and separately with Opposition Chair Yair Lapid. The Biden Administration has maintained close connections with both Gantz’s National Unity Party and Lapid’s Yesh Atid – a response, some argue, to their frustrations with Netanyahu.
• Blinken also met with Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas, the two discussing, said Blinken, “the benefits of revitalising the Palestinian Authority.” The US has long maintained its preference for a technocratic and reformed PA playing a major role in a post-Hamas Gaza.
• Israel is concerned about escalation in West Bank, especially in the lead up to Ramadan.
• On Tuesday, Israeli National Security Council chairman Hanegbi, Shin Bet head Ronen Bar, and COGAT chief Alian met with PA intelligence head Majed Faraj and Civil Affairs Minister Hussein al-Sheikh.
• Although ostensibly a secret meeting, details have emerged of their discussion. The military and intelligence echelons argue that economic instability is degrading the authority of the PA and increasing the security risks emanating from the West Bank. Therefore, The Times of Israel quotes a senior diplomat saying that the Israelis said “they would take a number of steps to address the situation, including reducing the number of checkpoints, reducing the number of arrest raids, allowing a subset of several thousand workers above the age of 45 to return to their jobs in Israel and reopening several Palestinian cities to Arab Israelis.”
• While Gallant is thought to concur with the military, security, and intelligence heads, support for the PA has been opposed by some in the political echelon, who point to the PA’s refusal to formally condemn October 7^th and its continued incitement of terror. (For a full analysis of the range of Israeli thinking on this issue, see BICOM’s recent research paper “The West Bank in the Shadow of October 7”.)

Looking ahead: Egyptian reports suggest that a new round of talks will begin today, as part of the negotiation efforts towards a hostage release deal.

• An Israeli offensive in Rafah remains likely, Netanyahu confirming that “we’ve instructed the IDF to prepare also to operate in Rafah and in two camps in the centre, the last strongholds Hamas has left. Here too, when the time comes, the IDF will act in compliance with international law and will allow the [civilian] population safe passage out of the war zones.”
• Saudi Arabia will today host a summit of foreign ministers from Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, in a bid to craft a unified Arab position on the war and the post-war situation in Gaza.

What’s happened: After a nearly two-week delay, Hamas has finally responded to the latest proposed hostage deal.

• According to Reuters and Israeli media reports Hamas has proposed a three-stage ceasefire plan, each lasting 45 days:
  • Stage one would see all Israeli female hostages, males under 19, the elderly and sick released in exchange for Palestinian women and minors still held in Israeli prisons. Israel would allow for the reconstruction of hospitals, with the IDF withdrawing from populated areas of the Strip.
  • In the second phase, all Israeli male hostages would be released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
  • In the third stage, Hamas would release the bodies and remains, presumably in exchange for more prisoners.
• According to Reuters, Hamas added “an addendum to the proposal that it wished for the release of 1500 prisoners, a third of whom it wanted to select from the a list of Palestinians handed life sentences by Israel.”
• Israel’s Prime Minister Office confirmed that the Mossad had received Hamas’s response through Qatari mediators and was reviewing the proposal.
• US President Joe Biden responded by calling Hamas’s answer “a little over the top.”
• According to the latest IDF assessment, at least 31 of the 136 hostages held in Gaza are no longer alive. According to the New York Times, another 20 have also been killed.
• Inside Gaza, the IDF continues to operate in Khan Yunis in the south as well as in the north of the Strip.
• On Tuesday, the IDF Spokesperson Hagari gave a progress report on the subterranean operations underneath Khan Yunis, declaring,  “there are not many compounds left and we have reached most of them.”
• He also revealed that IDF forces found intelligence material, “indicating a direct ‘connection’ from Iran to Hamas and more so – to Yahya Sinwar. We found official Hamas documents from 2020 detailing the funds transferred by Iran between the years 2014 and 2020 to Hamas and to Sinwar. More than one hundred and fifty million dollars were transferred from Iran to Hamas. This is another example of how Iran exports terror across the Middle East.”
• He added, “In the same subterranean space, we also found a safe with banknotes and bags containing more than twenty million shekels in cash.”

Context: It took Hamas almost two weeks to respond to the proposal reached under the auspices of the director of the CIA, alongside the head of the Mossad, the head of Egyptian intelligence and the Qatari prime minister in Paris at the end of January.  (Read more details of the original proposed deal here).

• As anticipated, Hamas is looking to secure the release of heavyweight Palestinian terrorists responsible for the murder of Israelis. Whilst the hostage families and their supporters demand a deal at any price, others in Israel are concerned for the longer term effect of releasing unrepentant murders. Families of victims are likely to raise an appeal against their release.
• With no agreement on the hostage deal, Prime Minister Netanyahu continues to reinforce his message that the war will not end until Israel achieves “total victory.”
• As the combat continues, earlier this week Netanyahu said that 18 out of 24 Hamas battalions have been destroyed.
• Similarly, Defence Minister Gallant shared his assessment that “about half” of the Hamas fighting corps have been killed or seriously wounded.
• Although precise numbers are unclear, it is estimated that there were between 25,000-30,000 Hamas fighters before October 7^th.
• According to the Hamas controlled health ministry in Gaza, over 27,000 Palestinians have been killed. However these figures do not distinguish between civilians and combatants and cannot be independently verified. Furthermore, the circumstances of the deaths of all those killed are not clear, with some thought to have died when Hamas rockets misfired and landed inside Gaza.
• The IDF announced another officer was killed in combat on Tuesday, taking the toll since the launch of the ground operation to 226 IDF personnel.
• There are calls among Israeli leaders to change the mechanism for delivering aid into Gaza, as more evidence suggests Hamas maintains the ability to controls the aid and its distribution.
• US Secretary of State arrived in Israel on Tuesday night and is expected to hold meetings over the next couple of days with Israeli leaders as well as visit the West Bank.
• Following his visit to Saudi Arabia, Blinken said, “the Saudi Crown Prince once again announced Saudi Arabia’s great interest in continuing the normalisation process with Israel”.

Looking ahead: Blinken will meet today with Prime Minister Netanyahu, President Herzog, Defence Minister Gallant and other senior Israeli officials.

• Following Gallant’s announcement, there is anticipation that the IDF would extend the ground operations to the southern most town of Rafah on the Egyptian border.
• However, it is possible that this was more of a threat to induce Hamas to accept the terms of the prisoner deal.
• There is speculation that the senior Hamas leadership is hiding out in the Rafah area, but any ground operation would require the movement of over a million Gazans who have fled south and risk fracturing Israeli-Egyptian ties.

Hostage/Prisoner exchange: Hamas sources said over the weekend the group was still debating the cease-fire and hostage-release deal proposal.

• According to the Hamas-affiliated Al-Aqsa channel, Hamas is deliberating with “all the representatives from the different factions and organisations in the Palestinian sphere” to promote Palestinian national interests, the first of which is “stopping the [Israeli] aggression, rehabilitating the Gaza Strip, and releasing the prisoners.”
• The Saudi network Al-Arabiya, however, reported that Hamas has rejected the Israeli proposal for a hostage deal and is demanding that the number of Palestinian prisoners Israel releases be increased. According to the report, Israel is opposed to the demand.
• When asked about progress on potential hostage deals, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on ABC’s This Week programme that “I can’t say it’s imminent, but ultimately these kinds of negotiations unfold somewhat slowly until they unfold very quickly. And so it’s difficult to put a precise timetable on when something might come together or frankly if something might come together. But sitting here today I cannot tell you it’s right around the corner.”
• In an interview on NBC’s Meet the Press programme, he said: “At this point, it’s up to Hamas to come forward and respond to a serious proposal, and we will continue to press Qatar and Egypt to try and generate a positive response,” he said. “What we’re pushing for is an outcome where every hostage returns home and Hamas in no longer in charge of Gaza… Everybody wants an end to the war, no one wants the war to continue. But for this to happen, all the hostages need to come home and Hamas needs to no longer pose a threat to Israel.”
• On CBS’ Face the Nation, Sullivan said the US “has been clear that we have to look out for and respond to the immense and terrible suffering of the Palestinian people. And that means pressing Israel on issues related to the humanitarian assistance that we have helped unlock and get into the Gaza Strip and there needs to be much more of it.” 

Gaza Strip: The IDF said it raided a central command centre of Hamas’ Khan Younis division where it located the office Mohammad Sinwar, brother of Hamas leader in Gaza.

• IDF forces also raided a central outpost of the division, which was used to train terrorists that participated in the October 7 attacks. The outpost had models of Kibbutz entrances, IDF bases and armed vehicles.
• Troops found storerooms housing rockets, shafts that led to underground facilities, equipment that was used to manufacture guns, as well as a large cache of weapons that included anti-tank missiles, rocket-propelled grenades, machineguns, explosive devices, hand grenades, rifle magazines and more.
• On Sunday, 24-year-old IDF soldier Shimon Yehoshua Asulin was killed in action in the southern Gaza Strip.
• During a visit to the Tel Nof Air Base Israeli Defence Minister Gallant said that “every airstrike in Gaza brings us closer to achieving our goals and returning the hostages. The pressure on Hamas is working, they are in a bad condition, and we are hitting them. In the north, the reality is similar – as we deepen our military achievements, the chance of not having to go to war grows.”

The north: At least eight rockets were fired this morning from Lebanon at the Upper Galilee. No injuries were sustained.

• An anti-tank missile that was shot from Lebanon into northern Israel Saturday evening hit a garage in Kibbutz Yir’on and caused damage, according to the IDF. No casualties were reported.
• The IDF says it carried out new airstrikes on in the southern Lebanese village of Yaroun, including on a Hezbollah command centre and another building used by the terror group. The IDF says it also struck a Hezbollah observation post in Maroun al-Ras.
• IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said yesterday evening that the IDF has attacked more than 3,400 Hezbollah targets so far in the war. He went on to say that Israel has killed more than 200 terrorists, has destroyed roughly 40 arms storerooms that were hidden in the area of the Israeli border, and has destroyed roughly 120 Hezbollah observation posts.
• “The security reality in the north is already being remoulded now and will continue to be remoulded moving ahead. We won’t revert to the security reality as existed on October 6,” Hagari said. “The State of Israel is a different country. Hezbollah won’t threaten the residents of the north and deceive the world.”
• Gallant met with Biden’s Special Adviser to the Middle East Amos Hochstein and said that Israel is willing to solve the crisis with Lebanon through diplomacy, but is prepared for any other scenario.

Red Sea: Over the weekend, the US, UK and other allies conducted strikes against 36 Houthi targets at 13 locations, in what was their third round of joint military action.

• According to US Central Command (CENTCOM), US forces “conducted a strike in self-defence against a Houthi… land attack cruise missile,” and later struck “four anti-ship cruise missiles, all of which were prepared to launch against ships in the Red Sea”.
• American forces “identified the missiles in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and determined they presented an imminent threat to US Navy ships and merchant vessels in the region.”
• In a statement on Sunday, Houthi spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam said that continued US-British ‘aggression’ in Yemen will not achieve any goal for the aggressors and will not affect Yemen’s decision to show its support for Gaza.
• Iran has issued a warning to the US over potentially targeting two cargo ships in the Mideast suspected of serving as a forwarding operating base for Iranian commandos.

Context: Some Israeli officials believe the delay in Hamas responding is technical in nature; others believe it stems from deep differences of opinion within Hamas over substantive issues.

• Reports emerged over the weekend about differences of opinion between Hamas’s Gaza leadership, headed by Yahya Sinwar, and Hamas’s overseas leadership, headed by Ismail Haniya. Those in Gaza allegedly want a deal now while Hamas officials based overseas insist that any deal be contingent upon a complete end to the war.
• It appears Hamas is demanding the right to draw up the list of Palestinian prisoners to be freed from Israeli jails. These include Marwan Barghouti, long considered to be an important “symbol” of Palestinian resistance; Ahmad Sadaat, serving a 30-year sentence for the murder of Transportation Minister Rehavam Zeevi in 2001; and Abdullah Barghouti, a Hamas member who served as commander of Hamas’ West Bank military wing and was sentenced to 67 life-term sentences.
• The Israeli cabinet has discussed a 142-day ceasefire. The proposal that has been made calls for 35 hostages to be released in the first round during a 42-day pause in the fighting—one day of paused fighting for each freed hostage and another seven days of negotiations to conclude the next round. After that round, there will be 100 hostages remaining in captivity, meaning the pause is likely to last 100 more days.
• Israeli security cabinet members disagree on the length of the ceasefire.
• There are 136 hostages, alive and dead, who have now been held in Gaza for 122 days.
• The area of Rafah remains a challenge for the IDF. Four Hamas battalions are tasked with maintaining Hamas’s control over the area in which there are also significant smuggling routes. Approximately 1.4 million Palestinians are in Rafah. Some Israeli officials believe that with an orderly plan to move them, the conditions can be created for a manoeuvre. Such a step would constitute a de facto defeat of Hamas’s military wing even without reaching its leadership.
• Egypt is concerned that if the fighting is extended to Rafah, many of these 1.4 million Palestinians will be forced to flee over the border into the Egyptian Sinai. It recently relayed very stern messages to Israel warning that any movement of Palestinian refugees into the Peninsula would jeopardise the peace treaty between the two countries.
• Israel and Egypt are reportedly considering the option of relocating the border crossing in Rafah to the Kerem Shalom area, placing it near the three-way Israel-Gaza-Egypt border. According to Channel 13 the goal is to facilitate ongoing Egyptian involvement at the crossing so as to avoid clashing with it over that issue, on the one hand, while simultaneously allowing for the crossing to be on the Israeli border as well as to facilitate Israeli security inspections, on the other.

Looking ahead: During his current trip to the region, Blinken will visit Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Israel and the Palestinian Authority. He is due to continue the diplomatic efforts to reach an agreement that will free all of the remaining hostages in Gaza.

• The newly appointed French foreign minister, Stéphane Séjourné, is slated to begin a first round of visits to the Middle East today. He will travel to Egypt, then Jordan, Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Séjourné’s last stop will be Lebanon.