17/12/24
What’s happening: An Israeli delegation left last night for Qatar suggesting progress has been made in the hostage deal negotiations.
- Speaking to the Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee in the Knesset yesterday Defence Minister Katz reportedly said, “Israel is closer than ever to another hostage deal.”
- Minister Katz is also quoted as saying, “The Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors won’t constitute an obstacle. Hamas is flexible on this issue…They understand that we aren’t going to end the war.”
- Katz anticipates a large majority in the cabinet and the security cabinet will vote in favour of a proposed deal, adding, “I have defined and instructed the security establishment to prioritise the release of the hostages.”
- Foreign Minister Saar also expressed his support for the current proposal saying, “I’m more optimistic than a month ago, but we have to remember that every sentence uttered affects the families.”
- Similarly the heads of Mossad and Shin Bet have reportedly told the security cabinet that Hamas is showing new willingness to reach a deal that didn’t exist before.
- Adam Boehler, President-elect Trump’s envoy for hostage affairs, met yesterday with Prime Minister and a range of other senior officials in the Knesset.
- Speaking at the White House’s Chanukah party President Biden said, “This is the second Chanukah since the horrors of October 7th. The trauma of that day and its aftermath is still raw and ongoing. I’ve gotten over 100 hostages out. I will not stop until I get every single one of them home.”
- Three rockets were fired out of the central Gaza Strip at Israel over the weekend. One landed in an open area, the others were intercepted. The launchers were positioned just a few dozen meters from warehouses that are used by international aid workers.
Contours of the deal: The current talks are understandably being conducted secretly, so as not to jeopardise their success. However Arab media have reported updated details of a potential deal:
- It will begin with a declared ceasefire ranging from six to eight weeks, which might start with an initial two-week pause in fighting that would be renewed for a month.
- In this period Hamas and Palestinian factions would release at least 20 Israeli hostages; women, children and the over 50’s plus possibly four or five with dual US citizenship.
- In exchange, Israel would release a group of Palestinian prisoners, including at least 100 convicted terrorists serving long sentences.
- Israel would gradually allow an increase in the number of Humanitarian Aid trucks entering the Gaza Strip to at least 400, including fuel for hospitals, bakeries, and water pumping stations.
- In the second stage, negotiations would begin regarding the remaining male captives in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners, and then negotiations would move to the exchange of corpses.
- Israeli troops are supposed to withdraw gradually from the population centres and cities along with the release of the first group of hostages.
- Israel will maintain a temporary presence on the Philadelphi Corridor (the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt) and the Netzarim Corridor (which partitions the Gaza Strip), and the border crossings, especially in the northern Gaza Strip.
Outstanding issues: There are numerous details still to be negotiated.
- The mechanism and details of any IDF redeployment and the freedom of action Israel will have following it. Despite Katz’ optimistic comments regarding the status of the Philadelphi and Netzarim Corridors, their status remains to be determined.
- Israel is still seeking clarification on the precise identities and number of hostages that remain alive and trying to ensure as many as possible are included in the first release stage.
- The ratio of hostage to prisoners to be released remains undetermined as well as the identities of the Palestinian prisoners, where they will be returned to (Gaza, West Bank or Turkey/Arab states), and what sort of veto Israel will have on the names of heavy weight prisoners demanded by Hamas.
- It is important for Hamas that displaced Gazans are able to return to northern Gaza. The sides will need to agree on this issue as well a screening mechanism for Gazan civilians who wish to return.
- Questions also remain about the future of Hamas leaders and fighters that remain in Gaza.
Context: The main drivers for the deal appear to be the Israeli military success’s against the Iranian camp in Lebanon and Syria and President-elect Trump’s threat. Both have further isolated Hamas to now seek a deal.
- Both the Biden and Trump teams are motivated to see a deal completed soon. Biden wants a deal for closure of the issue and as part of his legacy. Trump is keen to start his term with a clean slate.
- On the Israeli side there is still heavy scepticism that Hamas are truly prepared to do a deal. Largely due to the ideological extremism, but also that the hostages remain their greatest asset that they are reluctant to give up.
- The most controversial aspect will be the release of heavyweight terrorists in return for the hostages. There is lingering concern that just as Sinwar was released in the Shalit deal Israel could be releasing unrepentant murderers who are motivated to return to terrorism. This is particularly acute after all the effort of the war to destroy Hamas’s terror capacity.
- Despite political threats from hard right coalition partners, Ben Gvir and Smotrich who as a result may vote against the deal, it is thought Netanyahu will still have a majority in the cabinet and the security cabinet to secure a deal.
- There is also heightened concern from some of the hostage families that a partial deal will mean a death sentence for those not released. A statement issued by the hostages’ families in Tel Aviv demanded that the government refuse a “partial deal.”
- In London the Henry Jackson Society released a new report by Andrew Fox revealing that the number of civilians killed in Gaza has been inflated. According to the report, “The ministry of health, operating under Hamas, has systematically inflated the death toll by failing to distinguish between civilian and combatant deaths, over-reporting fatalities among women and children and even including individuals who died before the conflict began….This has led to a narrative where the Israel Defence Forces are portrayed as disproportionately targeting civilians, while the actual numbers suggest a significant proportion of the dead are combatants.”
- All of the rockets fired over the last few days have emanated from the camps in the central Gaza Strip, which is the only area in which the IDF has not yet operated on a full scale.
- Trump’s envoy Boehler is considered to hold a belligerent stance on Hamas, a week ago he was quoted saying that anyone who holds hostages needs to think carefully about what might happen to him.
- Boehler was Trump’s mediator in the talks that led to the Abraham Accords, and was appointed the president’s special envoy for American hostage affairs.
Looking ahead: US National Security Advisor Sullivan has suggested that a deal could be concluded by the end of December.
- While Trump has reissued his warning to Hamas that there will be “all hell to pay” if it does not release the hostages by the time he takes office.