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Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Key background
  • Hamas is an Islamist Palestinian nationalist movement which currently governs the Gaza Strip. It is proscribed by the UK and in the majority of western countries.
  • Its primary state backers are Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. It is also active in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon.
  • Since seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has continuously launched attacks against Israel and weaponised civilian infrastructure by embedding itself into schools, mosques, and hospitals.
  • Hamas’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel killed 1200, and over 250 hostages were subsequently taken to the Gaza Strip.
Shira Albag, mother of hostage Liri Albag speaks during a rally calling for the release of Israelis held hostage by Hamas terrorists in Gaza, at "Hostage Square" in Tel Aviv, January 11, 2025. Photo by Avshalom Sassoni/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** שירה לירי אלבג מלחמה חטופים משפחות תל אביב חרבות עצרת ברזל מלחמה

Updated March 27, 2025

Hamas releases propaganda video

Hostage negotiations: A Saudi newspaper has published a list of 34 hostages to be released in the first stage of a potential deal.

  • The list includes the two Bibas family children, 10 women including the five IDF spotters and the dual British-Israeli Emily Damari, 11 older men and 11 men aged under 50.
  • However, Hamas has refused to say who on the list is alive. Instead they are claiming it will take a week or so to determine the condition of each of the hostages.
  • Hamas continues to insist that any deal must include an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and a permanent ceasefire. 
  • Israeli negotiators have been in Qatar since Friday, but there has not yet been a breakthrough.
  • The Prime Minister’s Office released a statement this morning, “The list of hostages that has been published in the media was not provided to Israel by Hamas but was originally given by Israel to the mediators in July 2024. As yet, Israel has not received any confirmation or comment by Hamas regarding the status of the hostages appearing on the list. Israel will continue to act relentlessly for the return of all of our hostages.”
  • A senior Israeli official told Israel Hayomnewspaper, “The negotiations have continued to advance the entire time, and we have very wisely chosen not to share every detail because that is damaging and is painful for the hostages’ families.”
  • Several outstanding issues remains: Israel has continued to insist on receiving a definitive list of living hostages to be release in the first stage. The sides then need to agree on the number and identity of Palestinian prisoners whom Israel will release in exchange for them, and where the prisoners will be released to. 
  • A second obstacle is Hamas’s demand to receive guarantees that the first stage will lead to a second and third stage, in which the war will end. 
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu has continued to insist that the fighting will be resumed.  
  • According to Yediot Ahronot, the sections of the agreement that address a formal end to the war have been worded vaguely. Hamas’s working assumption is that Trump might not allow Israel to renew the war in full force if a ceasefire agreement does go into effect. 

Hamas’s psychological warfare: On Saturday, Hamas released another propaganda video showing signs of life from hostage Liri Albag, 19. Her family has asked that people do not share the video or photos from it.

  • Albag was kidnapped on October 7th 2023 from the Nahal Oz military outpost.
  • The Albag family released a statement after watching the video, “We watched today in horror the video that Hamas released, and we can’t breathe. That isn’t the Liri we know—that is a shadow of Liri. Albeit, [the video is] a sign of life from her, but this wasn’t the video that we had prayed for and it certainly isn’t an insurance policy. The perennially strong Liri appears broken and crushed. She says the words that they forced her to say and sent a lot of messages beyond that, pessimistic and survival.” 
  • Following the release of the film Liri’s parents received a call from both President Herzog and Prime Minister Netanyahu. Herzog told them that the “Israeli delegation that is holding the negotiations has to remain in the negotiating room until all 100 hostages return home.”
  • Her mother Shira Albag said, “We demanded from the prime minister and defence minister that the negotiating team should not return without an agreement. We understood from their remarks that they are prepared and willing to reach an agreement and to get all of the hostages back home.”

January 2, 2025

Hostage deal negotiations progress

Hostage deal negotiations: There are mixed reports over the prospects of reaching a deal.

  • Gaps remain between the Israeli and Hamas negotiating positions but talks are ongoing. 
  • One issue still to be resolved are the number of hostages who are to be released. Hamas is thought to be prepared to free a double-digit number of living hostages, but Israel is pushing for Hamas to agree to a higher number. Hamas has said it is prepared to make up the difference by releasing dead bodies in the first stage of the deal. 
  • According to an Egyptian report, five female soldiers are to be released in the first stage in exchange for 250 terrorists. 
  • Though Hamas has not provided a list of hostages to be released, it has passed to Israel via the mediators a specific list of over 200 heavy-weight terrorists whom it insists will be released in any deal that is reached. Israel has demanded the right to veto the release of many of the people who are on the list. 
  • The parties also remain at odds over the ongoing IDF presence along the Philadelphi Corridor and the Netzarim Corridor. Hamas has insisted on a large IDF troop withdrawal in the first stage of the deal. Israel is willing to consider a withdrawal only in the subsequent stages. 
  • A third issue in contention is Hamas’s demand to end the war, whereas Prime Minister Netanyahu insists on returning to fighting.
  • According to Kan News, an agreement has almost been concluded and that the remaining obstacles could be overcome. Israel and Hamas have agreed that any issue about which the parties disagree will be deferred to the second stage of the deal.
  • It has also been revealed that Hamas has presented a new proposal in the negotiations: A one-week ceasefire in which no hostages would be released. According to the proposal, Hamas will submit a list of hostages it is capable of releasing after the fourth day of the ceasefire, and Israel will decide at the end of the seventh day whether it is prepared to accept that list or, instead, whether its choice is to resume fighting.

January 2, 2025

IDF concludes in Jabalya

Earlier this week the IDF concluded its operation in the northern Gaza city of Jabalya.  

  • The final part of the operation was to dismantle Hamas’s stronghold in the Kamal Adwan Hospital, where 250 terrorists were captured and another 106 were killed within less than two hours. 
  • Realising that they were about to be captured, many terrorists stopped fighting and surrendered. Hundreds tried to disguise themselves as ill or wounded hospital patients. 
  • According to the IDF fifteen of the terrorists who were captured in the operation had participated in the October 7th massacre.

January 2, 2025

Rocket fire and fighting continue in Gaza

What’s happened: Overnight, the commander of the Hamas police in Gaza Muhammad Saleh and Hussam Shahwan, head of Hamas Internal Security Forces in Khan Yunis, were killed in an air strike in Khan Yunis. Nine others were reportedly killed in the attack.

  • Saleh held a rank equivalent to major-general while Shahwan held a rank equivalent to brigadier-general.
  • Earlier this week, an IDF drone targeted and killed Abed Al-Hadi, a Hamas Nukhba squad commander of Khan Yunis that had led the 7th Octobermassacre in Kibbutz Nir Oz.
  • Rockets continue to be fired at Israel from Gaza. At midnight on Tuesday, as the new-year began, two rockets were fired from the central Gaza Strip towards Netivot. One rocket was intercepted and the other landed in an open area. No one was injured. 
  • The IDF has also continued to operate in the Rafah area of southern Gaza. During a recent raid soldiers located and dismantled a rocket and weapons manufacturing facility containing medium to long-range rockets.

December 17, 2024

Efforts intensify to reach hostage deal

Relatives of Israelis held hostage by Hamas terrorists in Gaza and supporters protest for their release, outside the Likud headquarters in Tel Aviv, December 17, 2024. Photo by Tomer Neuberg/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** תל אביב מצודת זאב חטופים ליכוד חרבות ברזל נשים שחקנים פעילים הפגנה שחרור חטופים עזה חטופות

17/12/24

What’s happening: An Israeli delegation left last night for Qatar suggesting progress has been made in the hostage deal negotiations. 

  • Speaking to the Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee in the Knesset yesterday Defence Minister Katz reportedly said, “Israel is closer than ever to another hostage deal.”
  • Minister Katz is also quoted as saying, “The Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors won’t constitute an obstacle. Hamas is flexible on this issue…They understand that we aren’t going to end the war.”
  • Katz anticipates a large majority in the cabinet and the security cabinet will vote in favour of a proposed deal, adding, “I have defined and instructed the security establishment to prioritise the release of the hostages.” 
  • Foreign Minister Saar also expressed his support for the current proposal saying, “I’m more optimistic than a month ago, but we have to remember that every sentence uttered affects the families.”
  • Similarly the heads of Mossad and Shin Bet have reportedly told the security cabinet that Hamas is showing new willingness to reach a deal that didn’t exist before. 
  • Adam Boehler, President-elect Trump’s envoy for hostage affairs, met yesterday with Prime Minister and a range of other senior officials in the Knesset.
  • Speaking at the White House’s Chanukah party President Biden said, “This is the second Chanukah since the horrors of October 7th. The trauma of that day and its aftermath is still raw and ongoing. I’ve gotten over 100 hostages out. I will not stop until I get every single one of them home.”  
  • Three rockets were fired out of the central Gaza Strip at Israel over the weekend. One landed in an open area, the others were intercepted. The launchers were positioned just a few dozen meters from warehouses that are used by international aid workers.

Contours of the deal: The current talks are understandably being conducted secretly, so as not to jeopardise their success. However Arab media have reported updated details of a potential deal:  

  • It will begin with a declared ceasefire ranging from six to eight weeks, which might start with an initial two-week pause in fighting that would be renewed for a month.
  • In this period Hamas and Palestinian factions would release at least 20 Israeli hostages; women, children and the over 50’s plus possibly four or five with dual US citizenship.
  • In exchange, Israel would release a group of Palestinian prisoners, including at least 100 convicted terrorists serving long sentences.
  • Israel would gradually allow an increase in the number of trucks entering the Gaza Strip to at least 400, including fuel for hospitals, bakeries, and water pumping stations.
  • In the second stage, negotiations would begin regarding the remaining male captives in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners, and then negotiations would move to the exchange of corpses.
  • Israeli troops are supposed to withdraw gradually from the population centres and cities along with the release of the first group of hostages. 
  • Israel will maintain a temporary presence on the Philadelphi Corridor (the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt) and the Netzarim Corridor (which partitions the Gaza Strip), and the border crossings, especially in the northern Gaza Strip. 

Outstanding issues: There are numerous details still to be negotiated.

  • The mechanism and details of any IDF redeployment and the freedom of action Israel will have following it. Despite Katz’ optimistic comments regarding the status of the Philadelphi and Netzarim Corridors, their status remains to be determined.
  • Israel is still seeking clarification on the precise identities and number of hostages that remain alive and trying to ensure as many as possible are included in the first release stage.
  • The ratio of hostage to prisoners to be released remains undetermined as well as the identities of the Palestinian prisoners, where they will be returned to (Gaza, West Bank or Turkey/Arab states), and what sort of veto Israel will have on the names of heavy weight prisoners demanded by Hamas.
  • It is important for Hamas that displaced Gazans are able to return to northern Gaza. The sides will need to agree on this issue as well a screening mechanism for Gazan civilians who wish to return. 
  • Questions also remain about the future of Hamas leaders and fighters that remain in Gaza.

Context: The main drivers for the deal appear to be the Israeli military success’s against the Iranian camp in Lebanon and and President-elect Trump’s threat. Both have further isolated Hamas to now seek a deal.       

  • Both the Biden and Trump teams are motivated to see a deal completed soon. Biden wants a deal for closure of the issue and as part of his legacy. Trump is keen to start his term with a clean slate.
  • On the Israeli side there is still heavy scepticism that Hamas are truly prepared to do a deal. Largely due to the ideological extremism, but also that the hostages remain their greatest asset that they are reluctant to give up. 
  • The most controversial aspect will be the release of heavyweight terrorists in return for the hostages. There is lingering concern that just as Sinwar was released in the Shalit deal Israel could be releasing unrepentant murderers who are motivated to return to terrorism. This is particularly acute after all the effort of the war to destroy Hamas’s terror capacity.
  • Despite political threats from hard right coalition partners, Ben Gvir and Smotrich who as a result may vote against the deal, it is thought Netanyahu will still have a majority in the cabinet and the security cabinet to secure a deal.
  • There is also heightened concern from some of the hostage families that a partial deal will mean a death sentence for those not released.  A statement issued by the hostages’ families in Tel Aviv demanded that the government refuse a “partial deal.” 
  • In London the Henry Jackson Society released a new report by Andrew Fox revealing that the number of civilians killed in Gaza has been inflated. According to the report, “The ministry of health, operating under Hamas, has systematically inflated the death toll by failing to distinguish between civilian and combatant deaths, over-reporting fatalities among women and children and even including individuals who died before the conflict began….This has led to a narrative where the Israel Defence Forces are portrayed as disproportionately targeting civilians, while the actual numbers suggest a significant proportion of the dead are combatants.”
  • All of the rockets fired over the last few days have emanated from the camps in the central Gaza Strip, which is the only area in which the IDF has not yet operated on a full scale.
  • Trump’s envoy Boehler is considered to hold a belligerent stance on Hamas, a week ago he was quoted saying that anyone who holds hostages needs to think carefully about what might happen to him.
  • Boehler was Trump’s mediator in the talks that led to the Abraham Accords, and was appointed the president’s special envoy for American hostage affairs.

Looking ahead: US National Security Advisor Sullivan has suggested that a deal could be concluded by the end of December.

  • While Trump has reissued his warning to Hamas that there will be “all hell to pay” if it does not release the hostages by the time he takes office.

December 12, 2024

Efforts continue to reach a hostage deal

A picture of slain Israeli-American hostage Hersh Goldberg Polin hang on a building in Jerusalem, December 3, 2024. Photo by Chaim Goldberg/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** מלחמה חטופים הרש גולדברג פולין ירושלים

12/12/24

What’s happening: Intensive efforts are currently underway to reach a deal for the release of the hostages. 

  • The latest push is being led by Mossad Director Barnea with Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani. The pair spoke in Doha yesterday, having also met in Vienna two weeks ago, as Qatar resumed its role as a mediator.
  • In the US, the families of Israeli-American hostage met with Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives. The US official expressed his solidarity and said that the current US administration is committed to releasing the hostages. Johnson acknowledged the urgency to “take the hostages out from Hamas’s tunnels of death as quickly as possible.”
  • Defence Minister Katz spoke with his US counterpart Austin and said that renewed negotiations can pave the way to release all the hostages who are being held by Hamas, including those with American citizenship.
  • The IDF announced that over 350 trucks of entered Gaza yesterday. An additional 269 trucks distributed aid with the Strip. The trucks included food, water, medicine, medical equipment, and sheltering equipment.     
  • Last night a terrorist opened fire on a bus just south of Jerusalem.  Joshua Aharon Tuvia, a 12-year-old child was murdered, 3 people were wounded, and two other people were lightly hurt.
  • Following a manhunt in the Bethlehem area, the terrorist surrendered himself to the IDF this morning.  
  • In the south, two drones launched from Yemen were intercepted this morning, including one near Eilat. No injuries or property damage were reported.
  • Yesterday, two rockets fired from central Gaza were also intercepted.
  • The IDF announced a targeted strike on Fehmni Salmi, a Nukhba Company Commander, who led the October 7th attack on the IDF ‘Paga’ Outpost near Kibbutz Beeri in southern Israel.
  • The IDF also struck and eliminated Salah Dahham, the head of Hamas’s Paragliding Unit, in the Jabaliya area. On October 7th, Dahham led Hamas’ aerial infiltration into communities in southern Israel, a key part of Hamas’s opening attack.
  • Meanwhile Prime Minister Starmer met with the head of UNRWA and pledged an additional $16.5 million.

Context: The resumption of the hostage negotiations after several months is due to several factors. Most significant is the isolation of Hamas and the end of linkage with the war in Lebanon following Israel’s successful end of the campaign against Hezbollah.   

  • The deal currently under discussion is defined as being a “limited deal,” in which over 50’s, women and children and those with medical conditions would be released, leaving the male hostages and soldiers in captivity.
  • Due to US pressure it is also possible that the dual Israeli- American men will also be included in the first phase.
  • Efforts are being made to keep the details of the current talks secret and avoid leaks to ensure their success.   
  • The prospect of a limited deal has caused disagreements amongst some hostage families, specifically what it means for the fate of those not included.  
  • Israel is ensuring that both the Biden and Trump teams are involved in the current process.
  • Similar to the arrangement in Lebanon, one option thought to be being explored is another side deal with the US to ensure Israel maintains freedom of action to respond to Hamas threats.        
  • Otherwise it remains unclear how the sides can bridge the large gap that has persisted through numerous rounds of failed negotiations; Hamas demands an end to the war, while Israel says the war will not end before Hamas no longer rules Gaza.
  • Hamas also continues to insist that the IDF fully withdraws from the Strip. While this seems unlikely, the Egyptians are exploring options for a redeployment or a gradual withdrawal that will satisfy both sides.
  • An Israeli official said that the proposal is not for an end to the war, but an extended ceasefire that will allow the elderly, children, women, ill, and badly wounded hostages to be released. The number of living hostages in these groups is today understood to be fewer than the 33 that was previously discussed in talks over past months.
  • Asharq Al-Awsat reports that Hamas is contacting other terror groups holding hostages for updates on the number and conditions of living captives. Hamas has told factions including Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front, and the Popular Resistance Committees to prepare information such as whether their hostages are alive or dead.

Looking ahead: US National Security Adviser Sullivan is scheduled to arrive in the region today and is expected to visit Israel, Egypt and Qatar.

  • Despite progress, no imminent breakthrough is expected. However there is hope a deal can be concluded before Trump’s inauguration on January 20th. 

December 11, 2024

Israel claims 80% of Syrian military’s equipment destroyed

11/12/24

What’s happened: in the past 48 hours, Israeli strikes across have destroyed up to 80% of the country’s strategic military equipment in a bid to prevent it from falling into hostile hands.

  • In a statement yesterday, the IDF confirmed that it had conducted over 350 strikes in against what it is describing as “strategic targets” in Operation Bashan Arrow. 
  • These targets included two Syrian naval ports at Latakia and Al-Bayda, sea-to-sea missiles with ranges of 80-190km, anti-aircraft batteries, weapons production sites, Scud missiles, cruise missiles, surface-to-sea, surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missiles, UAVs, fighter jets, attack helicopters, radars, tanks, electronic warfare systems, intelligence bases and hangars. The Israel Navy also destroyed approximately 15 missile boats and approximately 20 coast guard vessels, minelayers and landing ships that were in Syrian possession.
  • The Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Centre in Damascus, which was considered a cover for the development and production of chemical weapons, missiles and rockets – and which more recently helped Hezbollah to improve the precision of its rockets – was also destroyed.
  • Speaking after the attacks, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that while Israel would seek to establish relations with the post-Assad regime and not interfere in its internal affairs, “we certainly do intend to do what is necessary to ensure our security” in a confirmation that it would not hesitate to defend itself.
  • The Prime Minister added “if this regime allows Iran to reestablish itself in Syria, or allows the transfer of Iranian weapons or any other weapons to Hezbollah, or attacks us, we will respond forcefully and we will exact a heavy price from it…What happened to the previous regime will also happen to this regime.”
  • While Bashan Arrow was being completed, the Israeli Army continued its takeover of the 1974 Syrian buffer zone and now controls the entirety of Mount Hermon.
  • The UN has criticised Israel’s actions in the buffer zone, and accused it of violating the 1974 Syria disengagement deal.
  • Syrian sources have alleged that Israeli forces are operating outside of the buffer zone and approaching Damascus, which the IDF has strenuously denied. Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, and the Arab League also criticised the Israeli move.
  • Following the collapse of the Assad regime, Mohammed al-Bashir who previously led Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) de facto rebel government in Idlib province, has been appointed as Syria’s caretaker Prime Minister until 1st March 2025. 
  • Speaking to Al Jazeera afterwards, al-Bashir confirmed that efforts were being made include previous government members in any transition arrangements “in order to facilitate all the necessary works for the next two months until we have a constitutional system to be able to serve the Syrian people.”
  • Prime Minister Starmer has confirmed that no decision has been made yet on whether or not HTS will be removed from the Home Office’s list of banned organisations, and that it was “far too early” to consider a policy change, despite one of his Cabinet members earlier telling the BBC that this was a possibility.
  • The UN and US are also both reportedly considering delisting HTS as a terrorist group on the condition that it renounces terror, takes meaningful steps towards forming an inclusive government, and protects minorities.

Context: The destruction of the Syrian army’s main capabilities is the largest military operation the IDF has ever undertaken, and one the IDF had not prepared in advance.

  • It was based on the logic that Syria possessed significant capabilities that could pose a threat were they to fall into irresponsible hands.
  • Destroying the Syrian army’s capabilities was not previously carried out during the civil war so as to not be seen as Israel declaring war on the Assad regime, as well as due to the fear upsetting the Russians. 
  • Before Assad’s fall, the Syrian military possessed 30 MiG 29 fighter jets, about 150 MiG 21, MiG 23 and Sukhoi 22 fighter jets, as well as 18 mid-range Sukhoi 24 bomber aircraft, half of which were thought to be still usable. The Syrian regime also possessed about 50 Mi-17 troop transportation aircraft, about 30 Mi-24 helicopter gunships and French-made Gazelle helicopters. 
  • Of bigger concern to Israel was Syria’s air defence systems. These included more than 100 SA-5 and S300 long range batteries, mobile BUK-M1/2 and Pantsir missiles and other models. In 2021, one of the SA-5F batteries successfully downed an IAF F-16. 
  • The collapse of the Assad regime is widely understood in Israel as a second order effect of the catastrophic weakening of Iran’s Axis of Resistance following Hezbollah’s recent defeat in southern Lebanon and Russia’s preoccupation with war in Ukraine.
  • Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria 2011-2015, before the Russian intervention – had acted as a regime survival guarantor. Yet following the recent war with Israel, Hezbollah was in no position to deploy to Syria and hold off the recent rebel offensive in any meaningful way.
  • Similarly, Russia also lacked the resources to significantly support Assad as it did from 2015 until its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
  • While Yahya Sinwar had hoped that last year’s 7th October attacks would catalyse a regional upheaval against Israel, the opposite has in fact proven true: Hamas has functionally been removed from governing the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah has been decimated with much of its leadership assassinated and weaponry destroyed; Iran’s client regime in Syria has been overthrown; and almost the entirety of Iran’s air defence systems has been neutralised.
  • The 235-square-kilometre demilitarised buffer zone was established as part of the 1974 Agreement on Disengagement between Israel and Syria. Since then it has been by UN peacekeepers, UNDOF. Israel argues that following the fall of the Assad regime, it considers the agreement void.

Hostage negotiations: The IDF and Shin Bet’s leadership have joined discussions in Cairo aimed at securing a ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza that would ultimately lead to the release of hostages captured on 7th October 2023.

  • Ronen Bar and Herzi Halevi met with senior Egyptian officials following an assessment that the chances of reaching an agreement with Hamas had increased.
  • Although Hamas has not given any publication indication as to its current views on whether or not it is open to a ceasefire and releasing hostages, Israeli officials believe this may be the case and there may be a chance to reach a deal in the month-long run up before President-elect Trump’s inauguration.

December 10, 2024

Progress reported on Gaza hostage deal

Photographs of the victims killed and held hostage by Hamas terrorists in Gaza since the October 7 massacre, on Dizengoff Square in Tel Aviv. December 12, 2024. Photo by Miriam Alster/FLASH90 *** Local Caption *** מלחמה חטופים כיכר דיזנגוף תל אביב

10/12/24

What’s happened: Recent reports indicate that conditions may have ripened for a deal to free hostages being held by Hamas, and drafts for such a deal have been exchanged between the sides. Lebanese Al-Akhbar newspaper reporting that the talks to reach a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip were at an advanced stage thanks to “larger areas of agreement” between the sides.

  • In a sign of progress, Hamas has reportedly begun to look for living hostages in the Gaza Strip ahead of such an agreement.
  • Hamas confirmed that its delegation met with Egyptian intelligence chief in Cairo. A report in Qatari newspaper The New Arab stated that Hamas submitted a list of hostages to mediators, with Egyptian intelligence receiving names of hostages with medical conditions and elderly captives, as well as Palestinian prisoners to be freed from Israeli jails.
  • Hamas also reportedly asked other Palestinian groups, including Islamic Jihad, to compile details on the hostages that they hold. Such ‘files’ were to include both medical conditions and locations.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu told hostages’ families that an opportunity was at hand to soon conclude an agreement, adding that he supports a ceasefire that would allow for hostages to be released.
  • Foreign Minister Saar also struck a cautiously optimistic note about a possible deal. “We aren’t there yet, but I hope we will be,” he said.
  • The Qatari newspaper report also claimed that four hostages with US citizenship who would not meet the specific humanitarian conditions of the first phase, would be included.
  • Over the weekend, a sign of life was released of Matan Zangauker, in which he addressed his mother, Einav: “Mum, I watch and hear you a lot. And I understand the activities you do. And I am very happy that you are well. And I hope to see you soon and sit with you at the same table to eat and drink and talk to you.”
  • In related news, three soldiers were killed and another 12 wounded (three hospitalised in serious condition) in Gaza by an anti-tank missile that was fired at them. The troops were preparing to board an armoured truck that was to transport them out of Gaza when a Hamas squad that was positioned near the fortified outpost fired an anti-tank missile and light weapons.
  • Four IDF reservists were killed in Lebanon for the first time since the ceasefire went into effect. The troops were searching for Hezbollah arms in the Lebanese village Labouna when an explosion took place in an underground chamber they were searching. A preliminary investigation found that the bomb had been planted by another IDF unit.

Context: Following Israel’s success in disrupting the linkage between the Gazan and Lebanese fronts with Hamas and Hezbollah as well as President-elect Trump’s interventions, Qatari mediators have rejoined efforts to broker a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

  • The deal currently under discussion is defined as being a “limited deal,” in which elderly, women and children and those with medical conditions would be released, leaving the male hostages in captivity.
  • The defence establishment believes that the release of videos of Matan Zangauker (whose mother Einav is one of the leaders of the fight to bring the hostages home) as well as of Israeli-American citizen Edan Alexander last week was meant to pressure Israel into making progress towards a larger deal. “The release of the video of Alexander, who has American citizenship, was meant to pressure President-elect Trump. The release of the Zangauker video was based on the understanding that his mother is a central figure among the hostages’ families and  could exert heavy pressure on Netanyahu,” said a security official.
  • Neither Zangauker nor Alexander would ostensibly be part of such a limited deal (although if US citizens were included Alexander might be on the list).
  • Other Americans among the 100 hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza include Keith Siegel, Sagui Dekel-Chen, Omer Neutra, Itay Chen, Judi Weinstein Haggai and her husband Gadi Haggai, although some are no longer thought to be alive. One British hostage, Emily Damari, remains in captivity.
  • There remains a level of disagreement amongst some hostage families as to whether a ‘limited’ deal is in Israel’s interest. Zvika Mor the leader of the Tikva Forum, whose son Eitan is being held in Gaza, told Kan Radio that “If we’re only currently talking about the girls and the women and the elderly—and we obviously want them all—we are liable to sentence the young men to who knows how many years, when it’s clear to us that Hamas will want to keep hostages for itself as bargaining chips.”
  • Many of the finer details are still unclear and some still need to be negotiated, but these appear to be the contours of a new agreement:
    • The deal will begin with a temporary ceasefire that will last between 45 and 60 days.
    • In that time, there will be a gradual / staged release of living hostages. Earlier deals spoke of the 33 hostages. It is not clear if it will reach that figure.
    • In return, Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. The ratio still needs to be negotiated.
    • One of the most dramatic clauses appears to be the opening of the Rafah crossing (between Egypt and Gaza) that will be placed under the control of the Palestinian Authority (PA).
    • The Qatari newspaper reported that IDF troops will withdraw from the Rafah border crossing and the city centres between the sixth and eighth week of the ceasefire, after which negotiations will be held about a permanent ceasefire and the release of the male and female soldiers who are being held hostage.
    • It also includes a substantial increase in the supply of into the Gaza Strip, thought to be up to 350 trucks a day.
  • The issue of the Israeli military presence in the Gaza Strip remains at the centre of talks between senior Israeli and Egyptian officials.  An Egyptian official said that the parties remained at odds about “the day after,” particularly because of the delay – despite Egyptian pressure – in an announcement by PA Chairman Abu Mazen on the establishment of the “social aid committee” that is to administer Gaza.
  • Hamas has continued to insist that any deal signals the end of the war. Israel is not prepared to give that guarantee. The temporary ceasefire could be temporary solution.  
  • Hamas also continues to insist that the IDF fully withdraws from the Strip. While this seems unlikely, the Egyptians are exploring options for a redeployment or a gradual withdrawal that will satisfy both sides.
  • Looking ahead: US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan is expected to arrive in Israel later this week to discuss the ceasefire in Lebanon, the dramatic developments in and the negotiations for a hostage deal in the Gaza.

December 5, 2024

Renewed cautious optimism for a hostage deal

A picture of slain Israeli-American hostage Hersh Goldberg Polin hang on a building in Jerusalem, December 3, 2024. Photo by Chaim Goldberg/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** מלחמה חטופים הרש גולדברג פולין ירושלים

05/12/24

What’s happened: More details have emerged of the new Egyptian proposal to reach a deal to release the hostages.

  • Many of the finer details are still unclear and some still need to be negotiated, but these appear to be the contours of a new agreement:
    • The deal will begin with a temporary ceasefire that will last between 45 and 60 days. 
    • In that time, there will be a gradual / staged release of living hostages. Earlier deals spoke of the 33 hostages. It is not clear if it will reach that figure.
    • In return, Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. The ratio still needs to be negotiated.
    • One of the most dramatic clauses appears to be the opening of the Rafah crossing (between Egypt and Gaza) that will be placed under the control of the Palestinian Authority (PA). 
    • It also includes a substantial increase in the supply of into the Gaza Strip, thought to be up to 350 trucks a day.
  • In light of these developments, Qatar has announced that it is also ready to resume its mediation role.
  • The announcement came as the Amir of Qatar Tamim Bin in Hamad Al Thani continued his state visit to the UK and met with Prime Minister Starmer. As part of their conversation Starmer “commended Qatar’s leadership in mediation…. Including their role in securing the release of hostages.”
  • The prime minister added, “we must continue to push for all hostages to be released, including British national Emily Damari.”      
  • In a joint IDF-Shin Bet operation, the body of Itai Svirsky a 38 year old hostage was recovered inside Gaza and has been brought back to Israel. 
  • Also yesterday, the IDF released details of the inquiry into the death of six hostages whose bodies were found in a tunnel in Khan Yunis in August. According to their findings, they were all executed by gunshot in February following an Israeli airstrike in their close vicinity.  It is thought their captors were then killed, possibly as a result of toxic fumes from the strike. Prior to the public release, the IDF presented the findings of the inquiry to the families of the six hostages—Alex Dancyg, Yagev Buchshtav, Chaim Peri, Yoram Metzger, Nadav Popplewell and Avraham Munder. 
  • In the US, President-elect Trump announced that he would appoint Adam Boehler as special presidential envoy for hostage affairs.

Context: Despite the cautious optimism, there remains more questions than answers, particularly how to square the circle of fundamental disagreements between Israel and Hamas.

  • Hamas has continued to insist that any deal signals the end of the war. Israel is not prepared to give that guarantee. The temporary ceasefire could be temporary solution.  
  • Hamas also continues to insist that the IDF fully withdraws from the Strip. While this seems unlikely, the Egyptians are exploring options for a redeployment or a gradual withdrawal that will satisfy both sides. 
  • If Israel were to allow the PA control and authority over the Rafah crossing, that would be a significant concession and would mark a dramatic reintegration of the PA into Gaza. The control of crossing has significance regarding sovereignty of the Strip and the large financial implications (denying Hamas crucial future income) and could be a significant feature for post war rehabilitation. 
  • If Prime Minister Netanyahu agrees to this, it will mark a sharp change in policy. It remains unclear how his right wing coalition partners will respond.
  • Hamas has also long objected to the PA reinserting itself into such an important symbolic and practical role.    
  • There is concern amid the visit of the Qatari leader that they continue to play a duplicitous role having hosted and funded Hamas for many years and have not done enough to exert requisite pressure on Hamas to release the hostages.       
  • Itai Svirsky was kidnapped from Kibbutz Beeri on October 7th.  He was there visiting his parents on the Jewish festival of Simchat Torah. Both his parents were killed on the 7th. It is believed Svirsky was taken alive and murdered after about four months in  captivity. 
  • The recovery of his body now leaves exactly 100 hostages in Hamas captivity.              
  • Trump’s appointment of Boehler follows his threat that there would be “all hell to pay” if the hostages were not released by the time he enters office. 
  • Boehler served in Trump’s first term and was one of the lead negotiators of the Abraham Accords and the Taliban.

Looking ahead: Israel’s security cabinet is due to convene this evening with the meeting expected to be focused on these developments. 

  • The next stage of the feasibility test of this new proposal will be when Israel sends a senior delegation to Cairo to explore these issues in more detail. The delegation is expected to be led by head of the Shin Bet Ronen Bar.
  • In parallel it is expected that Hamas’s negotiating team will retune to Doha to resume the talks.
  • The optimistic scenario is to have a deal before President-elect Trump enters office on January 20th

November 21, 2024

ICC issues arrest warrants against Israeli leaders

ICC: The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for Prime Minister Netanyahu and former defence minister Gallant.

  • This is the first time the court has ever issued warrants against leaders of a democratic country
  • The announcement has been met with shock and astonishment in Israel, compounded by the fact that since October 202 Israel has been responding to attacks orchestrated by Hamas, Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies. 
  • Three judges of the ICC have issued the warrants on charges of crimes against humanity and war crimes committed during the current war against Hamas in Gaza.
  • In parallel the court also issued a warrant for Hamas military leader Mohammed Deif, however Israel is confident he was killed earlier this year.
  • Both Netanyahu and Gallant will be liable for arrest if they travel to any country that are party to the ICC.
  • The decision will prevent them from travelling to many countries, including in Europe, but not to the US that is not a signatory of the court.
  • Beyond that its effect will be significant reputational damage.
  • The ICC was established in 2002 following the entry into force of the Rome Statute (1998). It has the mandate to prosecute individuals (rather than groups or States) responsible for the crimes of genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and also the crime of aggression (a crime which came into force in 2017).
  • Responding to the announcement, President Herzog said, “This is a dark day for justice. A dark day for humanity…It ignores the plight of the 101 Israeli hostages held in brutal captivity by Hamas in Gaza. It ignores Hamas’ cynical use of its own people as human shields. It ignores the basic fact that Israel was barbarically attacked and has the duty and right to defend its people. It ignores the fact that Israel is a vibrant democracy, acting under international humanitarian law, and going to great lengths to provide for the humanitarian needs of the civilian population…This cynical exploitation of the international legal institutions reminds us once again of the need for true moral clarity in the face of an Iranian empire of evil that seeks to destabilise our region and the world, and destroy the very institutions of the free world.”
  • Currently, the Court has 123 state parties (including Palestine whose status and membership is contested by many states), although the US, Russia, China and most Asian states are not currently members of the Court.

Northern Gaza: After two and half months the IDF is wrapping up its offensive operations against Hamas fighters and military infrastructure in the northern Gaza city of Jabalya.   

  • It currently appears that the IDF will remain deployed in the area to prevent lest Hamas once again tries to reconstitute itself militarily.
  • Humanitarian efforts in Gaza continue, with the IDF confirming the transfer of 1,000 blood units into northern Gaza.
  • The IDF also announced that since the outbreak of the war, 14 field hospitals have been established in coordination with international organisations, alongside the entry of over 2,800 trucks carrying 28,000 tons of medical equipment and hygiene products.
  • Earlier this week Prime Minister Netanyahu along with the new Defence Minister Israel Katz visited the Netzarim Corridor in the central Gaza Strip. Netanyahu commended the IDF for achieving “excellent results toward our important objective,” adding “Hamas will not rule in Gaza. We are eliminating its military capabilities in very impressive fashion. We are moving on to its governing abilities, and we are not yet done. Hamas will not be in Gaza.”
  • Netanyahu also related to Israeli efforts to bring back all the hostages, promising monetary reward for anyone freeing them. “Whoever brings us a hostage, will find a safe way out for himself and his family. We will also give $5 million for every hostage. Choose, the choice is yours but the result will be the same. We will bring them all back.”
  • Yesterday, Israel once again relied on a US veto at the UN Security Council, as they rejected the call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. The US opposed the wording as it made no correlation between ending the war and releasing the hostages. 

Context: The fighting in both Lebanon and Gaza appear to be drawing to an end. There are two other similarities between the fronts: 

  • Israel is wary that any withdrawal will create a vacuum that will be subsequently filled by terror organisations. In Lebanon Israel hopes that a reconstituted UNIFIL and Lebanese Army will fill the void. In Gaza no solution has yet been found.
  • Secondly, the IDF is insisting the right to respond to future efforts to reconstitute fighting capacity. In Lebanon, Israel is hoping for US backing for this, whist in Gaza this has remained a stumbling block in ceasefire talks.                 
  • The major difference between Lebanon and Gaza are the 101 hostages. Despite the IDF’s military progress, they are severely restricting their own movement and deliberately not operating in areas where the remaining hostages could be held.
  • Following the killing of the six hostages at the end of August the IDF now realises that any manoeuvres in close proximity to the remaining hostages will endanger their lives.
  • This in turn has enabled Hamas to reestablish its partial governance in some parts of the Strip. 
  • It is thought that the IDF has a fair degree of intelligence on the situation of the hostages, primarily based on information from captured terrorists, and other evidence they have found during their operations. However it is still thought that Hamas is sometimes still able to move them from place to place, making any rescue mission even harder.
  • An IDF commander told Yediot Ahronot, “The overwhelming majority of Gazans have not seen IDF soldiers for most of the long 14 months of fighting, which is why Hamas is still deeply rooted in government, because it has no rival… The public in Gaza is not close to rebelling against Hamas, there is no energy for this and no alternative.” 
  • The IDF has expanded the territory it controls in Gaza, and has paved new roads to serve to more efficiently manoeuvre troops and to facilitate the increased delivery of .
  • The IDF is reportedly considering taking over the full process of delivering aid. Unlike the current arrangement whereby the IDF facilitates only the entry of aid, it would also take responsibility for the delivery too. 
  • The recently fired defence minister Gallant said that Israel’s taking security responsibility for the distribution of in the Gaza Strip would set it down the path of military governance, at an unacceptable cost to the lives of soldiers. Gallant wrote on X, “The discussion about distributing food to residents of Gaza by private companies with IDF security is a euphemism for the start of a military government.”
  • During the two and half months of fighting in Jabalya the IDF assess over 1,000 Hamas terrorists were either killed or arrested, while the IDF lost 28 soldiers.
  • The IDF ordered the evacuation of Jabalya and surrounding towns in northern Gaza, but many Palestinians remained there, either because they are unwilling or unable to evacuate. 
  • Yesterday Israel crossed an unwanted milestone. Since the beginning of the war, 803 Israeli soldiers and officers have been killed. Among them are 272 reservists. 385 soldiers are under the age of 22. 
  • The relative security of Netzarim corridor that enabled the prime minister’s visit reflects the current pace of Israel’s operations, which have transitioned to a low-intensity conflict recently in most of Gaza. 
  • Despite the IDF’S success, Hamas are still able to launch sporadic rocket attacks, including this morning  when one rocket launched from the southern Gaza Strip towards Kerem Shalom.

Looking ahead: US envoy Hochstein arrived in Israel last night and met with Minister Dermer. He is set to meet with Netanyahu today. 

  • The Security Cabinet are also due to convene this evening to discuss the talks.
  • Senior diplomats say that they are closer than ever to reaching a ceasefire deal in Lebanon, but there are remaining gaps, particularly over monitoring mechanism. There is an understanding that the engagement of the US, France, and the UK could be significant

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