Gaza: During Yom Kippur Hamas were able to launch five rockets towards Ashdod, four were intercepted whilst one landed in an open area.

• On Wednesday several projectiles were launched from the Khan Yunis area and landed in the aid distribution site in Rafah, but did not cause any damage. 
• According to the IDF, “Despite the projectile launches fired, the aid distribution site opened yesterday, and thousands of weekly food packages were distributed to Gazan residents, without Hamas’ involvement.” 
• According to COGAT over the last week, 1,517 aid trucks entered Gaza, whist 2,14 trucks were able to distribute aid, with an additional 404 awaiting collection inside Gaza.  
• In addition the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation has distributed more than 175 million meals since their operations began at the end of May. 
• The IDF has continued to expand its incursion and is now operating in the heart of Gaza City, an estimated 1.5 km from the coast. It has also created an additional divide south of the Capital, including security checks on those leaving to the south.  
• Off the coast the Israeli navy took control of more than 40 vessels that participated in the “Gaza Freedom Flotilla.” Over 400 flotilla participants were arrested and brought to Ashdod Port ahead of their deportation from the country, no casualties were reported. 

Waiting on Hamas: Three days after US President Trump presented his peace plan for ending the war in Gaza, (giving Hamas a deadline of three or four days to respond), there has so far been no formal answer. 

• It is understood there is an internal disagreement within the organisation between those who want to reject the plan and those who would prefer to consider it in depth, on condition that significant changes are made. 
• Hamas appears to have several demands:
  • A clear timeline for the IDF to withdraw from the Gaza Strip.
  • Assurances that there will be internal Palestinian rule that isn’t dictated to by external parties. 
  • A refusal to fully disarm.
• Hamas is also looking to coordinate their position with other Palestinian factions. 
• According to the assessments, Hamas will likely choose the “yes, but” option, willingness to continue talks alongside presenting new demands.
• 48 hostages remain in Gaza, including 20 who are still alive. The Trump plan would require Hamas to release all of them within 72 hours of the start of the ceasefire. Hamas has claimed that this deadline might be difficult to deliver, particularly as some are held by different factions.
• Some senior Hamas members are also opposed to the deployment of “a temporary international stabilising force” in Gaza, to be operated by the US and Arab countries which Hamas sees as a new type of occupation.

What’s happened: President Trump unveiled his 20-point plan for ending the war at a White House press conference with Prime Minister Netanyahu, who accepted the plan on Israel’s behalf. The plan has also been endorsed by foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the UAE, Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt.

• Speaking after President Trump, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the new plan “will bring back to Israel all our hostages, dismantle Hamas’ military capabilities, end its political rule, and ensure that Gaza never again poses a threat to Israel.” (More details below.)
• Prime Minister Starmer announced his “strong support” for the plan to end the war, saying, “the new US initiative to deliver an end to the war in Gaza is profoundly welcome and I am grateful for President Trumps’ leadership.” French President Macron also endorsed the plan, adding that “Hamas has no choice but to immediately release all hostages and follow this plan.”
• Before the announcement, Netanyahu called the Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani to apologise for the Israeli air strike on Doha on September 9. Specifically, the Prime Minister expressed regret that a Qatari citizen had been killed in the strike (which also eliminated five Hamas officials) and committed not to violate Qatari sovereignty again in the future. Netanyahu also told his Qatari counterpart, “I know your leadership has grievances against Israel and Israel has grievances against Qatar, from support for the Muslim Brotherhood to how Israel is portrayed on Al Jazeera to support for anti-Israel sentiment on college campuses.”

Trump plan in detail: The terms of the Trump plan would see Israel achieving nearly all the goals it set for itself at the war’s outset, but not those of some of the far-right coalition partners.

• All Israeli hostages, living and dead, held by Hamas are to be released in the first 72 hours of the implementation of the agreement, before any changes are undertaken in IDF deployments. In exchange, Israel will release 250 Palestinians serving life sentences for terror offences and 1700 Gazans detained since the war began two years ago, including all women and children. For every dead hostage released by Hamas, Israel will hand over 15 bodies of Palestinians.
• The agreement stipulates a staged withdrawal process of Israeli forces that does not end at the pre-war boundary. Each of three withdrawals is conditioned on benchmarks of Hamas disarmament and the entry of an International Stabilisation Force (ISF) manned by Arab and Muslim countries. The last stage in the agreement will still see Israel hold on to a narrow buffer zone on the border of the Gaza Strip.
• Amnesty will be offered to Hamas members who “commit to peaceful coexistence” and “decommission their weapons.” Presumably allowing Israel to continue to act against those that do neither.    
• An international “Board of Peace” headed by Trump and former Prime Minister Tony Blair will oversee the governance of the Gaza Strip by means of a “technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee” not answerable, initially at least, to the Palestinian Authority (PA).
• The re-entry of the PA into Gaza is conditioned on a set of reform’s in line with Trump’s 2020 Peace Plan. The reforms include provisions for rule of law, financial reform, an end to incitement and changes in school textbooks, and a monopoly of arms in the PA’s civilian law enforcement agencies that decommissioned arms from various militias and terrorist organisations.
• The plan recognises the Palestinian “aspiration” for statehood, but nowhere guarantees it as an outcome. Palestinian self-determination is conditioned on the American demands for a reformed PA. 
• There will be no mass expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza, no American suzerainty, and no “riviera.” The plan guarantees that “no one will be forced to leave Gaza, and those who wish to leave will be free to do so and free to return.” There is no provision anywhere in the plan for Israeli settlement of any part of the Strip or any Israeli annexation of territory.
• The plan includes a massive ramping up of aid. It does not eliminate UNRWA, nor does it eliminate the US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation.
• The endorsements of countries such as Saudi Arabia and France are notable as Trump’s plan places conditions on the Palestinians to meet in order to move forward on the long-term aspiration for statehood rather than promising it to them at the outset or, as in Starmer’s initiative, offering recognition as a punishment for Israel. 
• The new plan differs from previous ceasefire initiatives in that it ends the war right away, has all hostages released immediately, and does not involve a full Israeli withdrawal from all territory in the Gaza Strip.
• It is also significant that along with Israel’s Arab allies, this plan is also endorsed by those countries that support Hamas, primarily Turkey and Qatar. 

Looking ahead: Hamas has not publicly stated whether it accepts Trump’s plan. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s envoy to the region, told US media that Hamas had indicted to him that they would “study the plan in good faith and provide an answer.”  He praised this response as “a very positive initial reaction for a group that hasn’t yet had time to fully review our proposal.”

• Besides Trump and Blair, it is not yet known who will sit on the “Board of Peace.” The White House is expected to begin announcing the Board’s membership in the coming days.
• At the press conference, Trump said that if Hamas did not agree to his plan, the US will let Israel “do what you would have to do.” In such a situation, he said, “Israel would have my full backing to finish the job of destroying the threat of Hamas.”
• As part of Netanyahu’s apology to Qatar it was agreed that a trilateral (Israel, Qatar, US)   forum will be convened to work through areas of disagreement.

What’s happened: The IDF has launched a major ground offensive into Gaza City. Two divisions have entered the city from two different directions, and a third is expected to join them in the coming days. 

• Eyal Zamir, Chief of General Staff of the IDF, accompanied troops from the 98th Division into Gaza City. Addressing soldiers he said, “In the time since October 7, the day when we were brutally attacked, our operational doctrine has completely changed. In cooperation with the range of security organisations, we eliminated most of Hamas’s leadership, we degraded the entire Iranian axis of evil and we removed existential threats in the context of Operation Rising Lion. Those results, which were achieved through the sacrifice and courage of our brave soldiers in the air, sea and land, have created a new security reality and opportunities that might improve the State of Israel’s strategic situation and the reality in the Middle East to our benefit.”
• UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper condemned the new IDF offensive, calling it “utterly reckless and appalling” and warning that “it will only bring more bloodshed, kill more innocent civilians & endanger the remaining hostages.” She was joined in her condemnations by foreign ministers from Germany, the Netherlands, and other countries. The Canadian Foreign Ministry’s statement expressed concern that the Israeli operation “jeopardises the release of hostages” without mentioning the party that abducted and holds the hostages, and further said that “Israel must adhere to international law” without pointing to any international law that the Israeli offensive supposedly violated.
• Responding to reports that Hamas was moving Israeli hostages into Gaza City and placing them above ground in places likely to be sites of intense combat, President Trump said, “I hear Hamas is trying to use the old human shield deal, and if they do that they’re going to be in big trouble.” 
• Prime Minister Netanyahu also reacted to Hamas threats to harm the hostages, saying, “If they harm a hair on the head of even one hostage, we will hunt them down with greater force until the end of their lives — and that end will come much faster than they think.”
• Israel ramped up its attacks on the Houthis in Yemen yesterday with a strike on the port facilities in Hodeida. Previous attacks have only focused on oil facilities at the port; yesterday’s strike was much broader and, if successful, puts the Houthis in a much more severe economic blockade than before.
• Two British MPs were denied entry into Israel. Peter Prinsley and Simon Opher, both of the Labour Party, were due to visit the West Bank on a trip organised by the Council for Arab-British Understanding (CAABU) and Medical Aid for Palestinians (MAP).

Context: At least 350,000 Gazans have heeded the IDF’s call to evacuate the city and have moved to points further south. The army expects many more to do so now that the operation has begun, and it has announced a second evacuation route to be opened today at noon. This route, along the inland Salah a-Din road, will remain open until noon on Friday. Evacuations until now have taken place along the coastal route. The IDF estimates that even after this evacuation period, between 100,000 and 300,000 civilians will remain in Gaza City.

• Israel Hayom reports that on the eve of the new operation, the IDF was already in control of roughly 40% of Gaza City, following operations in neighbourhoods on the outskirts of the city in Jabaliya, Sheikh Radwan, and Zeitoun.
• In the week leading up to the new ground offensive, the Israeli Air Force struck 850 targets, with approximately 50 targets struck in Gaza City last night. The IDF estimated that Gaza City had around 2,500 Hamas fighters in it before its forces surrounded the city. Current assessments are that that number increased somewhat in the last week as Hamas fighters streamed in from other sectors in preparation for the IDF’s move into the city centre.
• Opposition MKs have criticised the government’s priorities. “Conquering Gaza City yet another time on its own won’t deliver the goods,” said Benny Gantz, a former IDF chief of staff and defence minister, “Operation Gideon’s Chariots II, like the first, needs to be utilised to free our hostages, to destroy Hamas and to ensure a governmental alternative that isn’t Israel, and that is something Netanyahu hasn’t done until now for political reasons. Two years after the war began, Hamas is still administering the population, and we have to change that.”
• In Haaretz, Amos Harel writes, “Military forces are advancing relatively slowly at this stage and are doing so very cautiously. By comparison, when the IDF entered the Gaza Strip at the end of October 2023 following the massacre in Israeli border communities, the units moved quickly, deep on the ground, even though Hamas’ defensive preparations at the time were more difficult to crack and penetrate than they are now.” Noting the lack of enthusiasm among top security officials for the operation, Harel describes Netanyahu’s decision to go ahead with the operation as “perhaps his biggest gamble since the beginning of the war nearly two years ago.” 

Looking ahead: Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that President Trump has invited him to come to the White House on September 29. This will be three days after Netanyahu is expected to address the UN General Assembly. 

• The European Commission is expected to vote today to recommend a series of measures to be taken against Israel, including the suspension of a trade agreement and a renewal of import duties on Israeli products entering the European Union. In order to go into effect, the measures would need the approval of a qualified majority of European governments. Currently, opposition to the measures by Italy and Germany blocks such a majority, but speculation is rife that Italy could be persuaded to drop its opposition, especially if Israel takes retaliatory moves against the expected recognition of a Palestinian state next week, for example by shutting the French Consulate in Jerusalem. 
• The Israeli security cabinet is scheduled to meet tomorrow evening.

What’s happened: The IDF has indicated that it has now “begun destroying Hamas infrastructure in Gaza City”, suggesting that its promised offensive has now begun earlier than anticipated. Israeli tanks were reported in Gaza City, and it is estimated that approximately 350,000 have evacuated to different parts of the Gaza Strip.

• Objectives remain unchanged, namely dismantling Hamas and bringing the hostages home.
• Two divisions are operating, and more will join them in due course. The IDF is working to set the conditions for civilians to distance themselves from combat zones and move into humanitarian areas.
• Now that this offensive has begun, its priorities will be encircling and operating deeper within Gaza City. It follows close to two years of war since Hamas’s attacks on southern Israel on 7th October 2023, and is hoped to dismantle the terrorist group in its final bastion in the Gaza Strip.
• Approximately 60,000 reservists were called up for this operation, augmenting the 70,000 already in reserve service.
• Following Israel’s air strikes on Doha last week, Arab and Islamic leaders have met at an emergency summit convened in the Qatari capital. A joint Arab League and Organisation of Islamic Cooperation session, it included close to sixty countries including both Iran, all three Arab Abraham Accords signatories (the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco), as well as Egypt and Jordan.
• The summit was concluded with a joint statement calling for “all states to take all possible legal and effective measures to prevent Israel from continuing its actions against the Palestinian people…[including] reviewing diplomatic and economic relations with it, and initiating legal proceedings against it”, though it is unclear what practical steps will be taken in its aftermath, if any.
• Commenting at the summit, the Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian, alleged that last week’s airstrike amounted to “pure terrorism”, and that no Arab or Muslim capital was safe from similar strikes. This condemnation comes despite Iran themselves also firing a ballistic missile at US bases in Qatar in June.
• Qatar’s Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, accused Israel of having no genuine interest in peace, attempting “to thwart negotiations”, and pledged to “do whatever is necessary to preserve our sovereignty and confront Israeli aggression.”
• It is unclear how Qatar may do this, especially given its post-strike statements that it will continue to mediate ceasefire and hostage release negotiations between Israel and Hamas.
• Egypt has also reportedly called for the establishment of a Cairo-based joint Arab military command that would operate in a similar manner to NATO, providing assurances of mutual defence against external aggression and attacks.
• Despite their attendance at the Doha summit and prior statements condemning Israel’s air strikes, none of the Abraham Accords signatory countries sent heads of state, instead being represented by senior officials.

Context: US Secretary of State Rubio is partway through a regional trip to visit both Israel and Qatar. He is now due to visit the UK for meetings with the Foreign Secretary, Yvette Cooper, and “to join President Trump’s delegation for his unprecedented second State Visit.”

• While in Israel, Rubio reaffirmed that Washington’s priorities were the release of Israeli hostages and the destruction of Hamas, and refrained from directly criticising the Doha air strike in his public comments alongside Netanyahu.
• Earlier this morning while travelling to Doha, Rubio also warned of a “short window” in which to secure a ceasefire in Gaza while praising Qatar for its ongoing mediation of negotiations between Israel and Hamas.
• In a speech on Monday, Prime Minister Netanyahu also admitted that Israel was becoming increasingly isolated at a conference hosted by the Finance Ministry, specifically blaming Muslim immigration within the EU and online Qatari and Chinese propaganda.
• Netanyahu said part of this isolation was economic, with Israel needing to become more self-reliant. The Prime Minister singled out the arms industry as one where Israel would come to rely more on domestic production than on trade, expressing out loud what has been a growing consensus in Israel since the war began nearly two years ago.
• In the part of the speech that was most quoted, especially by critics of the Prime Minister, he said, “We are Athens and Sparta. But we’re going to be Athens and super-Sparta.”
• Leader of the Opposition Yair Lapid responded that “isolation isn’t fate, it’s the product of the wrong and failing policies of Netanyahu and his government,” while former Prime Minister Ehud Barak said, “’Super Sparta’ is the end of the country: economically, politically and militarily.”

Looking ahead: Last night, Canada, France, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar and UK held a call to discuss “advancing peace”. Chaired by President Macron of France, a subsequent readout said that “all leaders agreed that the focus must remain on advancing peace and security, including reaching a lasting ceasefire, securing the release of all hostages and the disarmament of Hamas, and scaling up flows of life-saving assistance for Palestinian civilians.”

• Ahead of President Trump and Secretary Rubio’s visit to London, it is likely that Prime Minister Starmer will raise these points, and attempt to further align the UK and US in calling for and advancing an immediate ceasefire and the release of hostages in Gaza, as well as increased aid provision.

What’s happened: IDF preparations for a major ground offensive into Gaza City continue apace. Four high-rise towers in the city that the army claims were being used by Hamas were destroyed yesterday following evacuation orders. Similar tower strikes have been happening over the course of the last week as the IDF moves forces into the outskirts of the city.

• According to IDF estimates, up to 300,000 people of the nearly one million who were sheltering in Gaza have already evacuated. The IDF believes that most of the rest will leave only when a major ground incursion begins. 
• Haaretz reports that reconstruction work is underway on the European Hospital in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip, and that two additional field hospitals are being set up, also in the southern part of the Strip. A new water pipeline connecting the humanitarian zone in al-Muwasi was connected to Egypt, and another power line was connected to an existing desalination facility.
• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Israel yesterday and traveled to the Western Wall in Jerusalem, accompanied by Prime Minister Netanyahu. Today he is meeting with Prime Minster and other top officials to discuss the war in Gaza and other topics. He told journalists that the US was “not happy” with the Israeli air strike in Qatar last week.
• Yesterday, Trump said Israel must “be very careful” and take action against Hamas, but emphasised Qatar’s importance. “Qatar has been a great ally to the U.S. A lot of people don’t know that. The emir is a wonderful person, actually.” Trump described Qatar as “a great ally.”
• According to media reports, Israeli officials are expected to raise with Rubio the possibility of Israel annexing some of the West Bank in response to the planned recognition of a Palestinian state later this week by a number of countries, including France and the UK.
• Foreign Minister Gideon Saar briefed diplomats in Jerusalem yesterday on Israel’s moves in Gaza and the West Bank.
  • Regarding the West Bank and the possibility of some kind of limited annexation, he said that no decision had been made yet.
  • Regarding a Palestinian state, he reiterated his opposition, and added that this was the overwhelming position of both Israeli officials and the Israeli public. Such a state, he said, would have as its “sole objective” the destruction of Israel.
  • On Gaza, he said that Israel had no interest in “controlling Palestinian’s lives there,” and spoke instead of a transitional period, possibly under an international mandate, as part of a comprehensive plan for the “day after” which was being worked out with the Americans.
• It was reported yesterday the Royal College of Defence Studies had decided to exclude Israeli participants from its programs in the next academic year. Critics of the move compared this exclusion unfavourably with the open door the College maintains to non-allied non-democratic countries, such as China. Amir Baram, Director General of the Israeli Ministry of Defence and himself an alumnus of the Royal College, called the decision “a profoundly dishonourable act of disloyalty to an ally at war.”

Context: The Security Cabinet met last night to discuss the hostage crisis. Maariv reports that the meeting ran for more than three hours and covered a long list of scenarios, including that Hamas might harm the hostages as the IDF moved into  its last redoubts in Gaza City. The Israeli television station Channel 12 reported that Israel had formulated measures to be carried out in response to any Hamas move to harm the hostages, but did not specific what those measures might be.

• IDF Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir spoke with MKs in the Knesset Committee for Intelligence Affairs, a subcommittee of the Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee and a rare forum outside the Government where officials have access to highly classified briefings and intelligence. Multiple leaks from the committee meeting indicate Zamir’s dissatisfaction with the Government’s decisions on the Gaza offensive due to begin soon.
• Zamir was quoted as not knowing what the Government’s goals in the operation were, including if the end result would be a full military administration of the territory, something the IDF has sought to avoid. Such direct military rule existed in Gaza from 1967 to 1994 and is expected to be a much more onerous task now than it was 31 years ago when it came to an end.
• Zamir was widely quoted in the press as saying that even a successful operation in Gaza City would not defeat Hamas, and ultimately Israel would be pushed to mounting another offensive in the refugee camps in the central region of the Gaza Strip. 
• Yedioth Ahronoth reports that Zamir specifically criticised the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, the aid mechanism that was established to bypass the UN and Hamas. He also told the Knesset committee that even in a siege, the IDF would continue to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza.
• Zamir told MKs that the Government’s plan put hostages at risk, put soldiers at risk, and did not have sufficient international legitimacy.
• There are also reports that Hamas has moved living hostages above ground into homes and tents in Gaza in an effort to make them into human shields. A video released this week of one hostage, Guy Gilboa-Dalal, showed him in the back seat of a car above ground.

Looking ahead: Qatar will host an “emergency summit” today in Doha of Arab and Muslim countries to formulate a response to Israel’s attack on Hamas leaders in its capital last week. Despite reports of Egyptian attempts to create a formal military alliance, the draft resolution circulated before the summit includes strong condemnatory language but no practical measures. 

• The Israeli public broadcaster’s Kan radio news bulletin reports that Israeli officials are bracing themselves for a wave of public condemnations once the IDF’s operation in Gaza City gets underway.