Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Updated December 19, 2024

Efforts intensify to reach hostage deal

17/12/24

What’s happening: An Israeli delegation left last night for Qatar suggesting progress has been made in the hostage deal negotiations.

Speaking to the Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee in the Knesset yesterday Defence Minister Katz reportedly said, “Israel is closer than ever to another hostage deal.”
Minister Katz is also quoted as saying, “The Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors won’t constitute an obstacle. Hamas is flexible on this issue…They understand that we aren’t going to end the war.”
Katz anticipates a large majority in the cabinet and the security cabinet will vote in favour of a proposed deal, adding, “I have defined and instructed the security establishment to prioritise the release of the hostages.”
Foreign Minister Saar also expressed his support for the current proposal saying, “I’m more optimistic than a month ago, but we have to remember that every sentence uttered affects the families.”
Similarly the heads of Mossad and Shin Bet have reportedly told the security cabinet that Hamas is showing new willingness to reach a deal that didn’t exist before.
Adam Boehler, President-elect Trump’s envoy for hostage affairs, met yesterday with Prime Minister and a range of other senior officials in the Knesset.
Speaking at the White House’s Chanukah party President Biden said, “This is the second Chanukah since the horrors of October 7^th. The trauma of that day and its aftermath is still raw and ongoing. I’ve gotten over 100 hostages out. I will not stop until I get every single one of them home.”
Three rockets were fired out of the central Gaza Strip at Israel over the weekend. One landed in an open area, the others were intercepted. The launchers were positioned just a few dozen meters from warehouses that are used by international aid workers.

Contours of the deal: The current talks are understandably being conducted secretly, so as not to jeopardise their success. However Arab media have reported updated details of a potential deal:

It will begin with a declared ceasefire ranging from six to eight weeks, which might start with an initial two-week pause in fighting that would be renewed for a month.
In this period Hamas and Palestinian factions would release at least 20 Israeli hostages; women, children and the over 50’s plus possibly four or five with dual US citizenship.
In exchange, Israel would release a group of Palestinian prisoners, including at least 100 convicted terrorists serving long sentences.
Israel would gradually allow an increase in the number of Humanitarian Aid trucks entering the Gaza Strip to at least 400, including fuel for hospitals, bakeries, and water pumping stations.
In the second stage, negotiations would begin regarding the remaining male captives in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners, and then negotiations would move to the exchange of corpses.
Israeli troops are supposed to withdraw gradually from the population centres and cities along with the release of the first group of hostages.
Israel will maintain a temporary presence on the Philadelphi Corridor (the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt) and the Netzarim Corridor (which partitions the Gaza Strip), and the border crossings, especially in the northern Gaza Strip.

Outstanding issues: There are numerous details still to be negotiated.

The mechanism and details of any IDF redeployment and the freedom of action Israel will have following it. Despite Katz’ optimistic comments regarding the status of the Philadelphi and Netzarim Corridors, their status remains to be determined.
Israel is still seeking clarification on the precise identities and number of hostages that remain alive and trying to ensure as many as possible are included in the first release stage.
The ratio of hostage to prisoners to be released remains undetermined as well as the identities of the Palestinian prisoners, where they will be returned to (Gaza, West Bank or Turkey/Arab states), and what sort of veto Israel will have on the names of heavy weight prisoners demanded by Hamas.
It is important for Hamas that displaced Gazans are able to return to northern Gaza. The sides will need to agree on this issue as well a screening mechanism for Gazan civilians who wish to return.
Questions also remain about the future of Hamas leaders and fighters that remain in Gaza.

Context: The main drivers for the deal appear to be the Israeli military success’s against the Iranian camp in Lebanon and Syria and President-elect Trump’s threat. Both have further isolated Hamas to now seek a deal.

Both the Biden and Trump teams are motivated to see a deal completed soon. Biden wants a deal for closure of the issue and as part of his legacy. Trump is keen to start his term with a clean slate.
On the Israeli side there is still heavy scepticism that Hamas are truly prepared to do a deal. Largely due to the ideological extremism, but also that the hostages remain their greatest asset that they are reluctant to give up.
The most controversial aspect will be the release of heavyweight terrorists in return for the hostages. There is lingering concern that just as Sinwar was released in the Shalit deal Israel could be releasing unrepentant murderers who are motivated to return to terrorism. This is particularly acute after all the effort of the war to destroy Hamas’s terror capacity.
Despite political threats from hard right coalition partners, Ben Gvir and Smotrich who as a result may vote against the deal, it is thought Netanyahu will still have a majority in the cabinet and the security cabinet to secure a deal.
There is also heightened concern from some of the hostage families that a partial deal will mean a death sentence for those not released. A statement issued by the hostages’ families in Tel Aviv demanded that the government refuse a “partial deal.”
In London the Henry Jackson Society released a new report by Andrew Fox revealing that the number of civilians killed in Gaza has been inflated. According to the report, “The ministry of health, operating under Hamas, has systematically inflated the death toll by failing to distinguish between civilian and combatant deaths, over-reporting fatalities among women and children and even including individuals who died before the conflict began….This has led to a narrative where the Israel Defence Forces are portrayed as disproportionately targeting civilians, while the actual numbers suggest a significant proportion of the dead are combatants.”
All of the rockets fired over the last few days have emanated from the camps in the central Gaza Strip, which is the only area in which the IDF has not yet operated on a full scale.
Trump’s envoy Boehler is considered to hold a belligerent stance on Hamas, a week ago he was quoted saying that anyone who holds hostages needs to think carefully about what might happen to him.
Boehler was Trump’s mediator in the talks that led to the Abraham Accords, and was appointed the president’s special envoy for American hostage affairs.

Looking ahead: US National Security Advisor Sullivan has suggested that a deal could be concluded by the end of December.

While Trump has reissued his warning to Hamas that there will be “all hell to pay” if it does not release the hostages by the time he takes office.

December 12, 2024

Efforts continue to reach a hostage deal

12/12/24

What’s happening: Intensive efforts are currently underway to reach a deal for the release of the hostages.

The latest push is being led by Mossad Director Barnea with Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani. The pair spoke in Doha yesterday, having also met in Vienna two weeks ago, as Qatar resumed its role as a mediator.
In the US, the families of Israeli-American hostage met with Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives. The US official expressed his solidarity and said that the current US administration is committed to releasing the hostages. Johnson acknowledged the urgency to “take the hostages out from Hamas’s tunnels of death as quickly as possible.”
Defence Minister Katz spoke with his US counterpart Austin and said that renewed negotiations can pave the way to release all the hostages who are being held by Hamas, including those with American citizenship.
The IDF announced that over 350 trucks of Humanitarian Aid entered Gaza yesterday. An additional 269 trucks distributed aid with the Strip. The trucks included food, water, medicine, medical equipment, and sheltering equipment.
Last night a terrorist opened fire on a bus just south of Jerusalem. Joshua Aharon Tuvia, a 12-year-old child was murdered, 3 people were wounded, and two other people were lightly hurt.
Following a manhunt in the Bethlehem area, the terrorist surrendered himself to the IDF this morning.
In the south, two drones launched from Yemen were intercepted this morning, including one near Eilat. No injuries or property damage were reported.
Yesterday, two rockets fired from central Gaza were also intercepted.
The IDF announced a targeted strike on Fehmni Salmi, a Nukhba Company Commander, who led the October 7th attack on the IDF ‘Paga’ Outpost near Kibbutz Beeri in southern Israel.
The IDF also struck and eliminated Salah Dahham, the head of Hamas’s Paragliding Unit, in the Jabaliya area. On October 7th, Dahham led Hamas’ aerial infiltration into communities in southern Israel, a key part of Hamas’s opening attack.
Meanwhile Prime Minister Starmer met with the head of UNRWA and pledged an additional $16.5 million.

Context: The resumption of the hostage negotiations after several months is due to several factors. Most significant is the isolation of Hamas and the end of linkage with the war in Lebanon following Israel’s successful end of the campaign against Hezbollah.

The deal currently under discussion is defined as being a “limited deal,” in which over 50’s, women and children and those with medical conditions would be released, leaving the male hostages and soldiers in captivity.
Due to US pressure it is also possible that the dual Israeli- American men will also be included in the first phase.
Efforts are being made to keep the details of the current talks secret and avoid leaks to ensure their success.
The prospect of a limited deal has caused disagreements amongst some hostage families, specifically what it means for the fate of those not included.
Israel is ensuring that both the Biden and Trump teams are involved in the current process.
Similar to the arrangement in Lebanon, one option thought to be being explored is another side deal with the US to ensure Israel maintains freedom of action to respond to Hamas threats.
Otherwise it remains unclear how the sides can bridge the large gap that has persisted through numerous rounds of failed negotiations; Hamas demands an end to the war, while Israel says the war will not end before Hamas no longer rules Gaza.
Hamas also continues to insist that the IDF fully withdraws from the Strip. While this seems unlikely, the Egyptians are exploring options for a redeployment or a gradual withdrawal that will satisfy both sides.
An Israeli official said that the proposal is not for an end to the war, but an extended ceasefire that will allow the elderly, children, women, ill, and badly wounded hostages to be released. The number of living hostages in these groups is today understood to be fewer than the 33 that was previously discussed in talks over past months.
Asharq Al-Awsat reports that Hamas is contacting other terror groups holding hostages for updates on the number and conditions of living captives. Hamas has told factions including Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front, and the Popular Resistance Committees to prepare information such as whether their hostages are alive or dead.

Looking ahead: US National Security Adviser Sullivan is scheduled to arrive in the region today and is expected to visit Israel, Egypt and Qatar.

Despite progress, no imminent breakthrough is expected. However there is hope a deal can be concluded before Trump’s inauguration on January 20th.

December 11, 2024

Israel claims 80% of Syrian military’s equipment destroyed

11/12/24

What’s happened: in the past 48 hours, Israeli strikes across Syria have destroyed up to 80% of the country’s strategic military equipment in a bid to prevent it from falling into hostile hands.

In a statement yesterday, the IDF confirmed that it had conducted over 350 strikes in Syria against what it is describing as “strategic targets” in Operation Bashan Arrow.
These targets included two Syrian naval ports at Latakia and Al-Bayda, sea-to-sea missiles with ranges of 80-190km, anti-aircraft batteries, weapons production sites, Scud missiles, cruise missiles, surface-to-sea, surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missiles, UAVs, fighter jets, attack helicopters, radars, tanks, electronic warfare systems, intelligence bases and hangars. The Israel Navy also destroyed approximately 15 missile boats and approximately 20 coast guard vessels, minelayers and landing ships that were in Syrian possession.
The Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Centre in Damascus, which was considered a cover for the development and production of chemical weapons, missiles and rockets – and which more recently helped Hezbollah to improve the precision of its rockets – was also destroyed.
Speaking after the attacks, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that while Israel would seek to establish relations with the post-Assad regime Syria and not interfere in its internal affairs, “we certainly do intend to do what is necessary to ensure our security” in a confirmation that it would not hesitate to defend itself.
The Prime Minister added “if this regime allows Iran to reestablish itself in Syria, or allows the transfer of Iranian weapons or any other weapons to Hezbollah, or attacks us, we will respond forcefully and we will exact a heavy price from it…What happened to the previous regime will also happen to this regime.”
While Bashan Arrow was being completed, the Israeli Army continued its takeover of the 1974 Syrian buffer zone and now controls the entirety of Mount Hermon.
The UN has criticised Israel’s actions in the buffer zone, and accused it of violating the 1974 Syria disengagement deal.
Syrian sources have alleged that Israeli forces are operating outside of the buffer zone and approaching Damascus, which the IDF has strenuously denied. Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, and the Arab League also criticised the Israeli move.
Following the collapse of the Assad regime, Mohammed al-Bashir who previously led Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) de facto rebel government in Idlib province, has been appointed as Syria’s caretaker Prime Minister until 1st March 2025.
Speaking to Al Jazeera afterwards, al-Bashir confirmed that efforts were being made include previous government members in any transition arrangements “in order to facilitate all the necessary works for the next two months until we have a constitutional system to be able to serve the Syrian people.”
Prime Minister Starmer has confirmed that no decision has been made yet on whether or not HTS will be removed from the Home Office’s list of banned organisations, and that it was “far too early” to consider a policy change, despite one of his Cabinet members earlier telling the BBC that this was a possibility.
The UN and US are also both reportedly considering delisting HTS as a terrorist group on the condition that it renounces terror, takes meaningful steps towards forming an inclusive government, and protects minorities.

Context: The destruction of the Syrian army’s main capabilities is the largest military operation the IDF has ever undertaken, and one the IDF had not prepared in advance.

It was based on the logic that Syria possessed significant capabilities that could pose a threat were they to fall into irresponsible hands.
Destroying the Syrian army’s capabilities was not previously carried out during the civil war so as to not be seen as Israel declaring war on the Assad regime, as well as due to the fear upsetting the Russians.
Before Assad’s fall, the Syrian military possessed 30 MiG 29 fighter jets, about 150 MiG 21, MiG 23 and Sukhoi 22 fighter jets, as well as 18 mid-range Sukhoi 24 bomber aircraft, half of which were thought to be still usable. The Syrian regime also possessed about 50 Mi-17 troop transportation aircraft, about 30 Mi-24 helicopter gunships and French-made Gazelle helicopters.
Of bigger concern to Israel was Syria’s air defence systems. These included more than 100 SA-5 and S300 long range batteries, mobile BUK-M1/2 and Pantsir missiles and other models. In 2021, one of the SA-5F batteries successfully downed an IAF F-16.
The collapse of the Assad regime is widely understood in Israel as a second order effect of the catastrophic weakening of Iran’s Axis of Resistance following Hezbollah’s recent defeat in southern Lebanon and Russia’s preoccupation with war in Ukraine.
Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria 2011-2015, before the Russian intervention – had acted as a regime survival guarantor. Yet following the recent war with Israel, Hezbollah was in no position to deploy to Syria and hold off the recent rebel offensive in any meaningful way.
Similarly, Russia also lacked the resources to significantly support Assad as it did from 2015 until its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
While Yahya Sinwar had hoped that last year’s 7th October attacks would catalyse a regional upheaval against Israel, the opposite has in fact proven true: Hamas has functionally been removed from governing the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah has been decimated with much of its leadership assassinated and weaponry destroyed; Iran’s client regime in Syria has been overthrown; and almost the entirety of Iran’s air defence systems has been neutralised.
The 235-square-kilometre demilitarised buffer zone was established as part of the 1974 Agreement on Disengagement between Israel and Syria. Since then it has been by UN peacekeepers, UNDOF. Israel argues that following the fall of the Assad regime, it considers the agreement void.

Hostage negotiations: The IDF and Shin Bet’s leadership have joined discussions in Cairo aimed at securing a ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza that would ultimately lead to the release of hostages captured on 7th October 2023.

Ronen Bar and Herzi Halevi met with senior Egyptian officials following an assessment that the chances of reaching an agreement with Hamas had increased.
Although Hamas has not given any publication indication as to its current views on whether or not it is open to a ceasefire and releasing hostages, Israeli officials believe this may be the case and there may be a chance to reach a deal in the month-long run up before President-elect Trump’s inauguration.

December 10, 2024

Progress reported on Gaza hostage deal

10/12/24

What’s happened: Recent reports indicate that conditions may have ripened for a deal to free hostages being held by Hamas, and drafts for such a deal have been exchanged between the sides. Lebanese Al-Akhbar newspaper reporting that the talks to reach a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip were at an advanced stage thanks to “larger areas of agreement” between the sides.

In a sign of progress, Hamas has reportedly begun to look for living hostages in the Gaza Strip ahead of such an agreement.
Hamas confirmed that its delegation met with Egyptian intelligence chief in Cairo. A report in Qatari newspaper The New Arab stated that Hamas submitted a list of hostages to mediators, with Egyptian intelligence receiving names of hostages with medical conditions and elderly captives, as well as Palestinian prisoners to be freed from Israeli jails.
Hamas also reportedly asked other Palestinian groups, including Islamic Jihad, to compile details on the hostages that they hold. Such ‘files’ were to include both medical conditions and locations.
Prime Minister Netanyahu told hostages’ families that an opportunity was at hand to soon conclude an agreement, adding that he supports a ceasefire that would allow for hostages to be released.
Foreign Minister Saar also struck a cautiously optimistic note about a possible deal. “We aren’t there yet, but I hope we will be,” he said.
The Qatari newspaper report also claimed that four hostages with US citizenship who would not meet the specific humanitarian conditions of the first phase, would be included.
Over the weekend, a sign of life was released of Matan Zangauker, in which he addressed his mother, Einav: “Mum, I watch and hear you a lot. And I understand the activities you do. And I am very happy that you are well. And I hope to see you soon and sit with you at the same table to eat and drink and talk to you.”
In related news, three soldiers were killed and another 12 wounded (three hospitalised in serious condition) in Gaza by an anti-tank missile that was fired at them. The troops were preparing to board an armoured truck that was to transport them out of Gaza when a Hamas squad that was positioned near the fortified outpost fired an anti-tank missile and light weapons.
Four IDF reservists were killed in Lebanon for the first time since the ceasefire went into effect. The troops were searching for Hezbollah arms in the Lebanese village Labouna when an explosion took place in an underground chamber they were searching. A preliminary investigation found that the bomb had been planted by another IDF unit.

Context: Following Israel’s success in disrupting the linkage between the Gazan and Lebanese fronts with Hamas and Hezbollah as well as President-elect Trump’s interventions, Qatari mediators have rejoined efforts to broker a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

The deal currently under discussion is defined as being a “limited deal,” in which elderly, women and children and those with medical conditions would be released, leaving the male hostages in captivity.
The defence establishment believes that the release of videos of Matan Zangauker (whose mother Einav is one of the leaders of the fight to bring the hostages home) as well as of Israeli-American citizen Edan Alexander last week was meant to pressure Israel into making progress towards a larger deal. “The release of the video of Alexander, who has American citizenship, was meant to pressure President-elect Trump. The release of the Zangauker video was based on the understanding that his mother is a central figure among the hostages’ families and could exert heavy pressure on Netanyahu,” said a security official.
Neither Zangauker nor Alexander would ostensibly be part of such a limited deal (although if US citizens were included Alexander might be on the list).
Other Americans among the 100 hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza include Keith Siegel, Sagui Dekel-Chen, Omer Neutra, Itay Chen, Judi Weinstein Haggai and her husband Gadi Haggai, although some are no longer thought to be alive. One British hostage, Emily Damari, remains in captivity.
There remains a level of disagreement amongst some hostage families as to whether a ‘limited’ deal is in Israel’s interest. Zvika Mor the leader of the Tikva Forum, whose son Eitan is being held in Gaza, told Kan Radio that “If we’re only currently talking about the girls and the women and the elderly—and we obviously want them all—we are liable to sentence the young men to who knows how many years, when it’s clear to us that Hamas will want to keep hostages for itself as bargaining chips.”
Many of the finer details are still unclear and some still need to be negotiated, but these appear to be the contours of a new agreement:
- The deal will begin with a temporary ceasefire that will last between 45 and 60 days.
- In that time, there will be a gradual / staged release of living hostages. Earlier deals spoke of the 33 hostages. It is not clear if it will reach that figure.
- In return, Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. The ratio still needs to be negotiated.
- One of the most dramatic clauses appears to be the opening of the Rafah crossing (between Egypt and Gaza) that will be placed under the control of the Palestinian Authority (PA).
- The Qatari newspaper reported that IDF troops will withdraw from the Rafah border crossing and the city centres between the sixth and eighth week of the ceasefire, after which negotiations will be held about a permanent ceasefire and the release of the male and female soldiers who are being held hostage.
- It also includes a substantial increase in the supply of Humanitarian Aid into the Gaza Strip, thought to be up to 350 trucks a day.
The issue of the Israeli military presence in the Gaza Strip remains at the centre of talks between senior Israeli and Egyptian officials. An Egyptian official said that the parties remained at odds about “the day after,” particularly because of the delay – despite Egyptian pressure – in an announcement by PA Chairman Abu Mazen on the establishment of the “social aid committee” that is to administer Gaza.
Hamas has continued to insist that any deal signals the end of the war. Israel is not prepared to give that guarantee. The temporary ceasefire could be temporary solution.
Hamas also continues to insist that the IDF fully withdraws from the Strip. While this seems unlikely, the Egyptians are exploring options for a redeployment or a gradual withdrawal that will satisfy both sides.
Looking ahead: US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan is expected to arrive in Israel later this week to discuss the ceasefire in Lebanon, the dramatic developments in Syria and the negotiations for a hostage deal in the Gaza.

December 5, 2024

Renewed cautious optimism for a hostage deal

05/12/24

What’s happened: More details have emerged of the new Egyptian proposal to reach a deal to release the hostages.

Many of the finer details are still unclear and some still need to be negotiated, but these appear to be the contours of a new agreement:
- The deal will begin with a temporary ceasefire that will last between 45 and 60 days.
- In that time, there will be a gradual / staged release of living hostages. Earlier deals spoke of the 33 hostages. It is not clear if it will reach that figure.
- In return, Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. The ratio still needs to be negotiated.
- One of the most dramatic clauses appears to be the opening of the Rafah crossing (between Egypt and Gaza) that will be placed under the control of the Palestinian Authority (PA).
- It also includes a substantial increase in the supply of Humanitarian Aid into the Gaza Strip, thought to be up to 350 trucks a day.
In light of these developments, Qatar has announced that it is also ready to resume its mediation role.
The announcement came as the Amir of Qatar Tamim Bin in Hamad Al Thani continued his state visit to the UK and met with Prime Minister Starmer. As part of their conversation Starmer “commended Qatar’s leadership in mediation…. Including their role in securing the release of hostages.”
The prime minister added, “we must continue to push for all hostages to be released, including British national Emily Damari.”
In a joint IDF-Shin Bet operation, the body of Itai Svirsky a 38 year old hostage was recovered inside Gaza and has been brought back to Israel.
Also yesterday, the IDF released details of the inquiry into the death of six hostages whose bodies were found in a tunnel in Khan Yunis in August. According to their findings, they were all executed by gunshot in February following an Israeli airstrike in their close vicinity. It is thought their captors were then killed, possibly as a result of toxic fumes from the strike. Prior to the public release, the IDF presented the findings of the inquiry to the families of the six hostages—Alex Dancyg, Yagev Buchshtav, Chaim Peri, Yoram Metzger, Nadav Popplewell and Avraham Munder.
In the US, President-elect Trump announced that he would appoint Adam Boehler as special presidential envoy for hostage affairs.

Context: Despite the cautious optimism, there remains more questions than answers, particularly how to square the circle of fundamental disagreements between Israel and Hamas.

Hamas has continued to insist that any deal signals the end of the war. Israel is not prepared to give that guarantee. The temporary ceasefire could be temporary solution.
Hamas also continues to insist that the IDF fully withdraws from the Strip. While this seems unlikely, the Egyptians are exploring options for a redeployment or a gradual withdrawal that will satisfy both sides.
If Israel were to allow the PA control and authority over the Rafah crossing, that would be a significant concession and would mark a dramatic reintegration of the PA into Gaza. The control of crossing has significance regarding sovereignty of the Strip and the large financial implications (denying Hamas crucial future income) and could be a significant feature for post war rehabilitation.
If Prime Minister Netanyahu agrees to this, it will mark a sharp change in policy. It remains unclear how his right wing coalition partners will respond.
Hamas has also long objected to the PA reinserting itself into such an important symbolic and practical role.
There is concern amid the visit of the Qatari leader that they continue to play a duplicitous role having hosted and funded Hamas for many years and have not done enough to exert requisite pressure on Hamas to release the hostages.
Itai Svirsky was kidnapped from Kibbutz Beeri on October 7th. He was there visiting his parents on the Jewish festival of Simchat Torah. Both his parents were killed on the 7th. It is believed Svirsky was taken alive and murdered after about four months in captivity.
The recovery of his body now leaves exactly 100 hostages in Hamas captivity.
Trump’s appointment of Boehler follows his threat that there would be “all hell to pay” if the hostages were not released by the time he enters office.
Boehler served in Trump’s first term and was one of the lead negotiators of the Abraham Accords and the Taliban.

Looking ahead: Israel’s security cabinet is due to convene this evening with the meeting expected to be focused on these developments.

The next stage of the feasibility test of this new proposal will be when Israel sends a senior delegation to Cairo to explore these issues in more detail. The delegation is expected to be led by head of the Shin Bet Ronen Bar.
In parallel it is expected that Hamas’s negotiating team will retune to Doha to resume the talks.
The optimistic scenario is to have a deal before President-elect Trump enters office on January 20th

November 21, 2024

ICC issues arrest warrants against Israeli leaders

ICC: The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for Prime Minister Netanyahu and former defence minister Gallant.

This is the first time the court has ever issued warrants against leaders of a democratic country
The announcement has been met with shock and astonishment in Israel, compounded by the fact that since October 202 Israel has been responding to attacks orchestrated by Hamas, Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies.
Three judges of the ICC have issued the warrants on charges of crimes against humanity and war crimes committed during the current war against Hamas in Gaza.
In parallel the court also issued a warrant for Hamas military leader Mohammed Deif, however Israel is confident he was killed earlier this year.
Both Netanyahu and Gallant will be liable for arrest if they travel to any country that are party to the ICC.
The decision will prevent them from travelling to many countries, including in Europe, but not to the US that is not a signatory of the court.
Beyond that its effect will be significant reputational damage.
The ICC was established in 2002 following the entry into force of the Rome Statute (1998). It has the mandate to prosecute individuals (rather than groups or States) responsible for the crimes of genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and also the crime of aggression (a crime which came into force in 2017).
Responding to the announcement, President Herzog said, “This is a dark day for justice. A dark day for humanity…It ignores the plight of the 101 Israeli hostages held in brutal captivity by Hamas in Gaza. It ignores Hamas’ cynical use of its own people as human shields. It ignores the basic fact that Israel was barbarically attacked and has the duty and right to defend its people. It ignores the fact that Israel is a vibrant democracy, acting under international humanitarian law, and going to great lengths to provide for the humanitarian needs of the civilian population…This cynical exploitation of the international legal institutions reminds us once again of the need for true moral clarity in the face of an Iranian empire of evil that seeks to destabilise our region and the world, and destroy the very institutions of the free world.”
Currently, the Court has 123 state parties (including Palestine whose status and membership is contested by many states), although the US, Russia, China and most Asian states are not currently members of the Court.

Northern Gaza: After two and half months the IDF is wrapping up its offensive operations against Hamas fighters and military infrastructure in the northern Gaza city of Jabalya.

It currently appears that the IDF will remain deployed in the area to prevent lest Hamas once again tries to reconstitute itself militarily.
Humanitarian efforts in Gaza continue, with the IDF confirming the transfer of 1,000 blood units into northern Gaza.
The IDF also announced that since the outbreak of the war, 14 field hospitals have been established in coordination with international organisations, alongside the entry of over 2,800 trucks carrying 28,000 tons of medical equipment and hygiene products.
Earlier this week Prime Minister Netanyahu along with the new Defence Minister Israel Katz visited the Netzarim Corridor in the central Gaza Strip. Netanyahu commended the IDF for achieving “excellent results toward our important objective,” adding “Hamas will not rule in Gaza. We are eliminating its military capabilities in very impressive fashion. We are moving on to its governing abilities, and we are not yet done. Hamas will not be in Gaza.”
Netanyahu also related to Israeli efforts to bring back all the hostages, promising monetary reward for anyone freeing them. “Whoever brings us a hostage, will find a safe way out for himself and his family. We will also give $5 million for every hostage. Choose, the choice is yours but the result will be the same. We will bring them all back.”
Yesterday, Israel once again relied on a US veto at the UN Security Council, as they rejected the call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. The US opposed the wording as it made no correlation between ending the war and releasing the hostages.

Context: The fighting in both Lebanon and Gaza appear to be drawing to an end. There are two other similarities between the fronts:

Israel is wary that any withdrawal will create a vacuum that will be subsequently filled by terror organisations. In Lebanon Israel hopes that a reconstituted UNIFIL and Lebanese Army will fill the void. In Gaza no solution has yet been found.
Secondly, the IDF is insisting the right to respond to future efforts to reconstitute fighting capacity. In Lebanon, Israel is hoping for US backing for this, whist in Gaza this has remained a stumbling block in ceasefire talks.
The major difference between Lebanon and Gaza are the 101 hostages. Despite the IDF’s military progress, they are severely restricting their own movement and deliberately not operating in areas where the remaining hostages could be held.
Following the killing of the six hostages at the end of August the IDF now realises that any manoeuvres in close proximity to the remaining hostages will endanger their lives.
This in turn has enabled Hamas to reestablish its partial governance in some parts of the Strip.
It is thought that the IDF has a fair degree of intelligence on the situation of the hostages, primarily based on information from captured terrorists, and other evidence they have found during their operations. However it is still thought that Hamas is sometimes still able to move them from place to place, making any rescue mission even harder.
An IDF commander told Yediot Ahronot, “The overwhelming majority of Gazans have not seen IDF soldiers for most of the long 14 months of fighting, which is why Hamas is still deeply rooted in government, because it has no rival… The public in Gaza is not close to rebelling against Hamas, there is no energy for this and no alternative.”
The IDF has expanded the territory it controls in Gaza, and has paved new roads to serve to more efficiently manoeuvre troops and to facilitate the increased delivery of Humanitarian Aid.
The IDF is reportedly considering taking over the full process of delivering aid. Unlike the current arrangement whereby the IDF facilitates only the entry of aid, it would also take responsibility for the delivery too.
The recently fired defence minister Gallant said that Israel’s taking security responsibility for the distribution of Humanitarian Aid in the Gaza Strip would set it down the path of military governance, at an unacceptable cost to the lives of soldiers. Gallant wrote on X, “The discussion about distributing food to residents of Gaza by private companies with IDF security is a euphemism for the start of a military government.”
During the two and half months of fighting in Jabalya the IDF assess over 1,000 Hamas terrorists were either killed or arrested, while the IDF lost 28 soldiers.
The IDF ordered the evacuation of Jabalya and surrounding towns in northern Gaza, but many Palestinians remained there, either because they are unwilling or unable to evacuate.
Yesterday Israel crossed an unwanted milestone. Since the beginning of the war, 803 Israeli soldiers and officers have been killed. Among them are 272 reservists. 385 soldiers are under the age of 22.
The relative security of Netzarim corridor that enabled the prime minister’s visit reflects the current pace of Israel’s operations, which have transitioned to a low-intensity conflict recently in most of Gaza.
Despite the IDF’S success, Hamas are still able to launch sporadic rocket attacks, including this morning when one rocket launched from the southern Gaza Strip towards Kerem Shalom.

Looking ahead: US envoy Hochstein arrived in Israel last night and met with Minister Dermer. He is set to meet with Netanyahu today.

The Security Cabinet are also due to convene this evening to discuss the talks.
Senior diplomats say that they are closer than ever to reaching a ceasefire deal in Lebanon, but there are remaining gaps, particularly over monitoring mechanism. There is an understanding that the engagement of the US, France, and the UK could be significant

November 15, 2024

Fighting continues as expanded delivery of aid arrives in Gaza

What’s happening: In parallel to ongoing fighting in Lebanon, the IDF continues to operate in northern and southern Gaza.

The operation in northern Gaza has been expanded beyond Jabalya to include the other northern towns of Bet Lahia and Beit Hanoun, where the IDF continues to thwart Hamas efforts to reconstitute their fighting infrastructure.
According to the IDF, during a recent operation, “the troops located and dismantled several rocket launcher sites aimed at firing toward the communities near the Gaza Strip. The troops also located Hamas uniforms, military equipment, AK-47 rifles, and weapon components.”
Earlier this week, the IDF opened the Kissufim Crossing for the transfer of Humanitarian Aid trucks and the IDF facilitated hundreds of food and water packages to be delivered to Jabaliya and Beit Hanoun
On Wednesday Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) released a video of the hostage Alexander Troufanov, which his family consented to make public. This is the first video of a living captive for several months.
In the video, Troufanov says that he and the other remaining hostages are running out of food and water. He also pleads for the Israeli public to continue to push for a hostage deal.

Context: The 101 remaining hostages have now been held in captivity for 404 days. Compounding the desperation, there are no negotiations for their release on the horizon.

Hamas has continued to demand a ceasefire as a prerequisite, whist Israel is insisting on the release of hostages without a commitment to end the war.
Last week Qatar’s Foreign Ministry announced it would suspend its mediation role due to continuing deadlock.
The US appears to back the Israeli stance of blaming Hamas. State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller said, “it’s time for Hamas to accept the proposal and alleviate the suffering of the Palestinian people.”
The hostages remain a crucial issue on the world stage, and it was also raised in the meeting between President Biden and President-elect Trump.
Biden also met the families of the seven remaining American-Israeli hostages. Following the meeting, the families said that Biden discussed a few initiatives that his administration is pursuing to try and reach a deal.
The IDF continues to face the challenge of distinction between Hamas and PIJ fighters on the one hand, and non-combatant Gazans on the other. In recent weeks, tens of thousands of Gazans have finally left the north for the expanded humanitarian zone.
Israeli media has highlighted many of those fleeing severely criticised Hamas saying that the group stole aid and that they were happy with Israel killed Sinwar.
The opening of Kissufim, which is directly adjacent to the expanded humanitarian zone, means it will take around 10 minutes to drive to the zone from the crossing. The route has also been paved by the IDF to allow speedy, safer delivery and avoid the risk of looting on the way.
According to the IDF, over the last month, 741 aid trucks have been delivered to northern Gaza, while 50,000 litres of fuel, 180 blood units, and hundreds of boxes of medical supplies and food have been delivered to support critical hospital infrastructure in northern Gaza.
In addition, in coordination with the World Health Organisation, 244 patients and their companions have been evacuated from hospitals in northern Gaza over the past month.
The IDF insists that the main problem in delivering the aid is the collection and distribution mechanism of the international NGOs, adding that 800 trucks are currently waiting on the Gazan side of Kerem Shalom awaiting collection.
Compounding the problem are efforts to smuggle weapons though arms convoys. On Sunday the IDF said it spotted “unusual movement” in one of the aid trucks, whereupon inspection, “troops discovered a bag containing ammunition for firearms.”
The US had threatened a partial embargo on weapons transfers if they did not increase the flow of aid. This week the 30 day deadline expired with the US appearing satisfied that Israel had at least met some of their criteria to improved provisions for aid.
The release by PIJ confirms that it is not only Hamas that holds hostages. It has been speculated that others could be held by other small terror groups or even crime organisations, making it even harder to negotiate and secure their release.
A medical report which was published by the Missing Families Forum this week, indicates that the 101 hostages who remain in Hamas captivity are in life-threatening condition.
According to expert estimates, some hostages have lost up to 50% of their body weight due to prolonged starvation. As the winter approaches, this severe physical degradation, combined with existing malnutrition, puts them at high risk for cold-related injuries such as frostbite and hypothermia.

Looking ahead: There is hope that, in what remains of the President Biden’s term in office, his team will place further pressure on Qatar and Hamas to renew talks for a hostage deal. The outgoing administration is prepared to collaborate with Trump to secure a hostage deal.

November 12, 2024

Fighting continues in Gaza, with five Israeli soldiers killed in the northern part of the Strip

The soldiers were named as staff Sergeant Orr Katz, Staff Sergeant Nave Yair Asulin, Staff Sergeant Gary Lalhruaikima Zolat, and Staff Sergeant Ofir Eliyahu. All four were under 21 years old.
The fifth was a 34 year old reservist, Major Itamar Levin Fridman, from Eilat, was killed by an anti-tank missile in Jabaliya.
The IDF launched airstrikes on several buildings in the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, as well as in Gaza City in the northern strip.
On Sunday, unusual movement was detected during the passage of a convoy between northern and southern Gaza that had been coordinated with the international community and monitored by the IDF. When the convoy was stopped for a security check along the humanitarian route, IDF troops discovered a bag containing ammunition for firearms.
On Sunday evening, Channel 12 News reporter Ohad Hemo spoke to Gazans who severely criticised Hamas saying that the group stole aid and that they were happy with Israel killed Sinwar.
Yesterday, the IDF announced it had expanded the humanitarian zone which now includes: field hospitals established since the start of the war, tent compounds, shelter supplies, and provisions of food, water, medicine, and medical equipment. This was coordinated by the Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) in cooperation with the international community.
The IDF also announced that it is preparing to open the Kissufim Crossing, which is located across from the humanitarian area. It is hoped that his will enable aid to reach the area within minutes and prevents Hamas from stealing it.

October 31, 2024

Herzog meets British hostage mother

President Herzog: Amanda Damari, mother of Emily, who was abducted and taken hostage from the youth neighborhood in Kibbutz Kfar Aza, told me in our meeting about her daughter, a truly remarkable young woman; strong, intelligent, with a love for life, and loved by all who know her. Emily, who holds British citizenship, has been brutally held by Hamas terrorists for over a year. We must continue to do everything to bring her back to her family, along with all our loved ones held hostage.

October 30, 2024

Cabinet to vote on budget today

What’s happening: Finance Minister Smotrich yesterday sent an outline of the 2025 budget ahead of a government meeting today to approve the budget.

The cabinet is expected to vote on the state budget today, however substantial disagreements remain, particularly over the size of next year’s defence budget.
The Ministry of Defence says it needs NIS 160 billion (£33.1bn), whereas the Finance Ministry says the defence needs can be met with NIS 110 billion (£22.76bn).
Part of this large discrepancy is based on different assessments over when the fighting will end in the north and south as well as the Iranian threat.
In general, the budget focuses on economic recovery from the war. According to the Finance Ministry, the direct cost of funding the war in Gaza from October 2023 through August 2024 was 100 billion shekels (approximately £20.7 billion).
The Bank of Israel estimates the total could rise to NIS 250 billion (£51.72bn) by the end of 2025, but that was before Israel’s incursion into Lebanon, which will add to this amount.
As a result, several ministries are facing substantial cuts including NIS 100 million (£20.70m) off the welfare ministry and NIS 133 million (£27.50m) off the education ministry.
The budget also includes cuts to the Transport and Road Safety Ministry’s development budget and Health Ministry budgets.
Smotrich is reportedly trying to cut NIS 40 billion (£8.27 billion). There could also be changes in the income tax brackets and tax credit points, and some national insurance payments will be frozen.
Responding to concerns that some of the cuts will harm Israel’s most vulnerable, Smotrich said that the ministry will identify those who are significantly harmed by the stipend freezes.
Ultra-Orthodox parties have, until recently, insisted on a bill to exempt full-time Yeshiva (religious seminary) students from military service before supporting the budget.
However, facing widespread anger and resentment both from the secular public and parts of the national-religious community (which has lost a disproportionate number of soldiers over the course of the war) ultra-Orthodox leaders in the Knesset agreed to delay their demand for a new conscription law until after this week’s budget vote.
Instead, by way of compensation, the United Torah Judaism party submitted a bill to ease the criteria for daycare subsidies for ultra-Orthodox children. The bill seeks to circumvent a decision earlier in the year by the attorney-general to block subsidies for children of yeshiva students where the father has refused to serve in the military.
Addressing the budgetary issue that affects the ultra-Orthodox community, Smotrich acknowledged that there are social implications but refrained from committing to supporting financial sanctions to discourage this situation from continuing.

Context: The discussions over the budget and the ultra-Orthodox demand for a formal exemption from army service comes as the IDF predicts it needs greater manpower. Over the next two years, IDF reservists will continue to serve for longer periods of time.

Some 300,000 reservists have been called up since the Hamas attack of October 7th 2023, 18 percent of whom were men over 40 who should have been exempted.
The IDF plans to increase the number of soldiers who will protect the north and the south from Hamas or Hezbollah in a scenario where they try to attack these areas in the future and to provide a better sense of security for the civilian residents.
The IDF is also preparing for a scenario that, even if a ceasefire is agreed, the IDF will seek to maintain their freedom to respond to anticipated Hezbollah violations of any agreement.
A group of reservists recently sent a letter to IDF Chief of Staff Halevi asking to share the burden with members of the ultra-Orthodox community.
In a hospital visit to an ultra-orthodox wounded soldier, Halevi talked about the important of ultra-Orthodox Jews serving, saying, “This is what’s right socially, and I think that when we manage to grow from this… from realising the need for a larger IDF, it could also bring a very positive social change.”
Halevi added that, “more soldiers are needed for the conscripted army and IDF reserves.”

Looking ahead: Once the cabinet approves the budget, it is then voted on in the Knesset.

Netanyahu and Smotrich have stated their intention to pass the budget by the end of 2024. With the coalition now with 68 seats, as long as the ultra-Orthodox parties are on board there is no reason why the budget should encounter difficulties. The final deadline to pass the budget is March 31st, which would result in the government’s collapse and early elections.

IDF Recruitment – Background

In 1948, David Ben Gurion struck a deal with the ultra-Orthodox community to exempt from service a capped number whose full-time occupation was Torah study. At the time, the principle that ‘Torah study is a vocation’ was never enshrined in law, but rather in a Defence Ministry regulation. Given the much smaller ultra-Orthodox population, the exemption applied only to 400 Yeshiva students.
With the election of Menachem Begin as Prime Minister in 1977, the cap was removed and all Yeshiva students were able to avail themselves of the exemption.
In the late 1990s, the Supreme Court began a series of interventions on the issue. In a 1998 ruling Rubinstein v. The Minister of Defence, the court, under the leadership of Aharon Barak, ruled that exemption was discriminatory and violated the principle of equality. It subsequently ordered that suitable legislation be explored to remedy the status quo. In 2012, the Court similarly ruled unconstitutional the Tal Law, the first attempt at a legislative solution which, although designed to encourage greater ultra-Orthodox participation, left the process largely voluntary, resulting in ongoing low rates of service.
The 2013 Netanyahu government – which did not comprise ultra-Orthodox parties – passed legislation requiring an annually increasing percentage of ultra-Orthodox men to be drafted. This was encouraged by coalition partners Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. Between 2012-14, partly as a result of reduced budgets, the amount of ultra-Orthodox students studying in Yeshiva declined by 8 per cent.
The 2015 ultra-Orthodox parties return to power led to new legislation undercutting the previous policy, which in turn was once again struck down by the court. An increase in budgets for yeshiva students led to 10 per cent increase in the number of students. In 2017, the court ruled the new legislation unconstitutional and demanded the government make changes that respect the principle of equality.
During the Bennett-Lapid government, Defence Minister Gantz succeeded in passing, on a first reading, a bill lowering the age of exemption to 21. The bill, whose progress collapsed along with the government, also provided for the eventual drafting of the majority of the ultra-Orthodox into the IDF, with the quota for those obliged to serve rising each year.
In 2022, when the coalition was formed, Netanyahu agreed to pass a new law on conscription that would have met ultra-Orthodox demands, but it has been repeatedly delayed, first in a battle over the justice system and later over the war.
In June 2024, the High Court ruled the state must begin drafting ultra-Orthodox Jewish seminary students, and the military said it would recruit about 3,000 ultra-Orthodox a year

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Key background

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Efforts continue to reach a hostage deal

Israel claims 80% of Syrian military’s equipment destroyed

Progress reported on Gaza hostage deal

Renewed cautious optimism for a hostage deal

ICC issues arrest warrants against Israeli leaders

Fighting continues as expanded delivery of aid arrives in Gaza

Fighting continues in Gaza, with five Israeli soldiers killed in the northern part of the Strip

Herzog meets British hostage mother

Cabinet to vote on budget today

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