12/12/24

What’s happening: Intensive efforts are currently underway to reach a deal for the release of the hostages. 

• The latest push is being led by Mossad Director Barnea with Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani. The pair spoke in Doha yesterday, having also met in Vienna two weeks ago, as Qatar resumed its role as a mediator.
• In the US, the families of Israeli-American hostage met with Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives. The US official expressed his solidarity and said that the current US administration is committed to releasing the hostages. Johnson acknowledged the urgency to “take the hostages out from Hamas’s tunnels of death as quickly as possible.”
• Defence Minister Katz spoke with his US counterpart Austin and said that renewed negotiations can pave the way to release all the hostages who are being held by Hamas, including those with American citizenship.
• The IDF announced that over 350 trucks of Humanitarian Aid entered Gaza yesterday. An additional 269 trucks distributed aid with the Strip. The trucks included food, water, medicine, medical equipment, and sheltering equipment.     
• Last night a terrorist opened fire on a bus just south of Jerusalem.  Joshua Aharon Tuvia, a 12-year-old child was murdered, 3 people were wounded, and two other people were lightly hurt.
• Following a manhunt in the Bethlehem area, the terrorist surrendered himself to the IDF this morning.  
• In the south, two drones launched from Yemen were intercepted this morning, including one near Eilat. No injuries or property damage were reported.
• Yesterday, two rockets fired from central Gaza were also intercepted.
• The IDF announced a targeted strike on Fehmni Salmi, a Nukhba Company Commander, who led the October 7th attack on the IDF ‘Paga’ Outpost near Kibbutz Beeri in southern Israel.
• The IDF also struck and eliminated Salah Dahham, the head of Hamas’s Paragliding Unit, in the Jabaliya area. On October 7th, Dahham led Hamas’ aerial infiltration into communities in southern Israel, a key part of Hamas’s opening attack.
• Meanwhile Prime Minister Starmer met with the head of UNRWA and pledged an additional $16.5 million.

Context: The resumption of the hostage negotiations after several months is due to several factors. Most significant is the isolation of Hamas and the end of linkage with the war in Lebanon following Israel’s successful end of the campaign against Hezbollah.   

• The deal currently under discussion is defined as being a “limited deal,” in which over 50’s, women and children and those with medical conditions would be released, leaving the male hostages and soldiers in captivity.
• Due to US pressure it is also possible that the dual Israeli- American men will also be included in the first phase.
• Efforts are being made to keep the details of the current talks secret and avoid leaks to ensure their success.   
• The prospect of a limited deal has caused disagreements amongst some hostage families, specifically what it means for the fate of those not included.  
• Israel is ensuring that both the Biden and Trump teams are involved in the current process.
• Similar to the arrangement in Lebanon, one option thought to be being explored is another side deal with the US to ensure Israel maintains freedom of action to respond to Hamas threats.        
• Otherwise it remains unclear how the sides can bridge the large gap that has persisted through numerous rounds of failed negotiations; Hamas demands an end to the war, while Israel says the war will not end before Hamas no longer rules Gaza.
• Hamas also continues to insist that the IDF fully withdraws from the Strip. While this seems unlikely, the Egyptians are exploring options for a redeployment or a gradual withdrawal that will satisfy both sides.
• An Israeli official said that the proposal is not for an end to the war, but an extended ceasefire that will allow the elderly, children, women, ill, and badly wounded hostages to be released. The number of living hostages in these groups is today understood to be fewer than the 33 that was previously discussed in talks over past months.
• Asharq Al-Awsat reports that Hamas is contacting other terror groups holding hostages for updates on the number and conditions of living captives. Hamas has told factions including Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front, and the Popular Resistance Committees to prepare information such as whether their hostages are alive or dead.

Looking ahead: US National Security Adviser Sullivan is scheduled to arrive in the region today and is expected to visit Israel, Egypt and Qatar.

• Despite progress, no imminent breakthrough is expected. However there is hope a deal can be concluded before Trump’s inauguration on January 20th. 

10/12/24

What’s happened: Recent reports indicate that conditions may have ripened for a deal to free hostages being held by Hamas, and drafts for such a deal have been exchanged between the sides. Lebanese Al-Akhbar newspaper reporting that the talks to reach a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip were at an advanced stage thanks to “larger areas of agreement” between the sides.

• In a sign of progress, Hamas has reportedly begun to look for living hostages in the Gaza Strip ahead of such an agreement.
• Hamas confirmed that its delegation met with Egyptian intelligence chief in Cairo. A report in Qatari newspaper The New Arab stated that Hamas submitted a list of hostages to mediators, with Egyptian intelligence receiving names of hostages with medical conditions and elderly captives, as well as Palestinian prisoners to be freed from Israeli jails.
• Hamas also reportedly asked other Palestinian groups, including Islamic Jihad, to compile details on the hostages that they hold. Such ‘files’ were to include both medical conditions and locations.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu told hostages’ families that an opportunity was at hand to soon conclude an agreement, adding that he supports a ceasefire that would allow for hostages to be released.
• Foreign Minister Saar also struck a cautiously optimistic note about a possible deal. “We aren’t there yet, but I hope we will be,” he said.
• The Qatari newspaper report also claimed that four hostages with US citizenship who would not meet the specific humanitarian conditions of the first phase, would be included.
• Over the weekend, a sign of life was released of Matan Zangauker, in which he addressed his mother, Einav: “Mum, I watch and hear you a lot. And I understand the activities you do. And I am very happy that you are well. And I hope to see you soon and sit with you at the same table to eat and drink and talk to you.”
• In related news, three soldiers were killed and another 12 wounded (three hospitalised in serious condition) in Gaza by an anti-tank missile that was fired at them. The troops were preparing to board an armoured truck that was to transport them out of Gaza when a Hamas squad that was positioned near the fortified outpost fired an anti-tank missile and light weapons.
• Four IDF reservists were killed in Lebanon for the first time since the ceasefire went into effect. The troops were searching for Hezbollah arms in the Lebanese village Labouna when an explosion took place in an underground chamber they were searching. A preliminary investigation found that the bomb had been planted by another IDF unit.

Context: Following Israel’s success in disrupting the linkage between the Gazan and Lebanese fronts with Hamas and Hezbollah as well as President-elect Trump’s interventions, Qatari mediators have rejoined efforts to broker a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

• The deal currently under discussion is defined as being a “limited deal,” in which elderly, women and children and those with medical conditions would be released, leaving the male hostages in captivity.
• The defence establishment believes that the release of videos of Matan Zangauker (whose mother Einav is one of the leaders of the fight to bring the hostages home) as well as of Israeli-American citizen Edan Alexander last week was meant to pressure Israel into making progress towards a larger deal. “The release of the video of Alexander, who has American citizenship, was meant to pressure President-elect Trump. The release of the Zangauker video was based on the understanding that his mother is a central figure among the hostages’ families and  could exert heavy pressure on Netanyahu,” said a security official.
• Neither Zangauker nor Alexander would ostensibly be part of such a limited deal (although if US citizens were included Alexander might be on the list).
• Other Americans among the 100 hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza include Keith Siegel, Sagui Dekel-Chen, Omer Neutra, Itay Chen, Judi Weinstein Haggai and her husband Gadi Haggai, although some are no longer thought to be alive. One British hostage, Emily Damari, remains in captivity.
• There remains a level of disagreement amongst some hostage families as to whether a ‘limited’ deal is in Israel’s interest. Zvika Mor the leader of the Tikva Forum, whose son Eitan is being held in Gaza, told Kan Radio that “If we’re only currently talking about the girls and the women and the elderly—and we obviously want them all—we are liable to sentence the young men to who knows how many years, when it’s clear to us that Hamas will want to keep hostages for itself as bargaining chips.”
• Many of the finer details are still unclear and some still need to be negotiated, but these appear to be the contours of a new agreement:
  • The deal will begin with a temporary ceasefire that will last between 45 and 60 days.
  • In that time, there will be a gradual / staged release of living hostages. Earlier deals spoke of the 33 hostages. It is not clear if it will reach that figure.
  • In return, Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. The ratio still needs to be negotiated.
  • One of the most dramatic clauses appears to be the opening of the Rafah crossing (between Egypt and Gaza) that will be placed under the control of the Palestinian Authority (PA).
  • The Qatari newspaper reported that IDF troops will withdraw from the Rafah border crossing and the city centres between the sixth and eighth week of the ceasefire, after which negotiations will be held about a permanent ceasefire and the release of the male and female soldiers who are being held hostage.
  • It also includes a substantial increase in the supply of Humanitarian Aid into the Gaza Strip, thought to be up to 350 trucks a day.
• The issue of the Israeli military presence in the Gaza Strip remains at the centre of talks between senior Israeli and Egyptian officials.  An Egyptian official said that the parties remained at odds about “the day after,” particularly because of the delay – despite Egyptian pressure – in an announcement by PA Chairman Abu Mazen on the establishment of the “social aid committee” that is to administer Gaza.
• Hamas has continued to insist that any deal signals the end of the war. Israel is not prepared to give that guarantee. The temporary ceasefire could be temporary solution.  
• Hamas also continues to insist that the IDF fully withdraws from the Strip. While this seems unlikely, the Egyptians are exploring options for a redeployment or a gradual withdrawal that will satisfy both sides.
• Looking ahead: US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan is expected to arrive in Israel later this week to discuss the ceasefire in Lebanon, the dramatic developments in Syria and the negotiations for a hostage deal in the Gaza.