What’s happened: The IDF has launched a major ground offensive into Gaza City. Two divisions have entered the city from two different directions, and a third is expected to join them in the coming days. 

• Eyal Zamir, Chief of General Staff of the IDF, accompanied troops from the 98th Division into Gaza City. Addressing soldiers he said, “In the time since October 7, the day when we were brutally attacked, our operational doctrine has completely changed. In cooperation with the range of security organisations, we eliminated most of Hamas’s leadership, we degraded the entire Iranian axis of evil and we removed existential threats in the context of Operation Rising Lion. Those results, which were achieved through the sacrifice and courage of our brave soldiers in the air, sea and land, have created a new security reality and opportunities that might improve the State of Israel’s strategic situation and the reality in the Middle East to our benefit.”
• UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper condemned the new IDF offensive, calling it “utterly reckless and appalling” and warning that “it will only bring more bloodshed, kill more innocent civilians & endanger the remaining hostages.” She was joined in her condemnations by foreign ministers from Germany, the Netherlands, and other countries. The Canadian Foreign Ministry’s statement expressed concern that the Israeli operation “jeopardises the release of hostages” without mentioning the party that abducted and holds the hostages, and further said that “Israel must adhere to international law” without pointing to any international law that the Israeli offensive supposedly violated.
• Responding to reports that Hamas was moving Israeli hostages into Gaza City and placing them above ground in places likely to be sites of intense combat, President Trump said, “I hear Hamas is trying to use the old human shield deal, and if they do that they’re going to be in big trouble.” 
• Prime Minister Netanyahu also reacted to Hamas threats to harm the hostages, saying, “If they harm a hair on the head of even one hostage, we will hunt them down with greater force until the end of their lives — and that end will come much faster than they think.”
• Israel ramped up its attacks on the Houthis in Yemen yesterday with a strike on the port facilities in Hodeida. Previous attacks have only focused on oil facilities at the port; yesterday’s strike was much broader and, if successful, puts the Houthis in a much more severe economic blockade than before.
• Two British MPs were denied entry into Israel. Peter Prinsley and Simon Opher, both of the Labour Party, were due to visit the West Bank on a trip organised by the Council for Arab-British Understanding (CAABU) and Medical Aid for Palestinians (MAP).

Context: At least 350,000 Gazans have heeded the IDF’s call to evacuate the city and have moved to points further south. The army expects many more to do so now that the operation has begun, and it has announced a second evacuation route to be opened today at noon. This route, along the inland Salah a-Din road, will remain open until noon on Friday. Evacuations until now have taken place along the coastal route. The IDF estimates that even after this evacuation period, between 100,000 and 300,000 civilians will remain in Gaza City.

• Israel Hayom reports that on the eve of the new operation, the IDF was already in control of roughly 40% of Gaza City, following operations in neighbourhoods on the outskirts of the city in Jabaliya, Sheikh Radwan, and Zeitoun.
• In the week leading up to the new ground offensive, the Israeli Air Force struck 850 targets, with approximately 50 targets struck in Gaza City last night. The IDF estimated that Gaza City had around 2,500 Hamas fighters in it before its forces surrounded the city. Current assessments are that that number increased somewhat in the last week as Hamas fighters streamed in from other sectors in preparation for the IDF’s move into the city centre.
• Opposition MKs have criticised the government’s priorities. “Conquering Gaza City yet another time on its own won’t deliver the goods,” said Benny Gantz, a former IDF chief of staff and defence minister, “Operation Gideon’s Chariots II, like the first, needs to be utilised to free our hostages, to destroy Hamas and to ensure a governmental alternative that isn’t Israel, and that is something Netanyahu hasn’t done until now for political reasons. Two years after the war began, Hamas is still administering the population, and we have to change that.”
• In Haaretz, Amos Harel writes, “Military forces are advancing relatively slowly at this stage and are doing so very cautiously. By comparison, when the IDF entered the Gaza Strip at the end of October 2023 following the massacre in Israeli border communities, the units moved quickly, deep on the ground, even though Hamas’ defensive preparations at the time were more difficult to crack and penetrate than they are now.” Noting the lack of enthusiasm among top security officials for the operation, Harel describes Netanyahu’s decision to go ahead with the operation as “perhaps his biggest gamble since the beginning of the war nearly two years ago.” 

Looking ahead: Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that President Trump has invited him to come to the White House on September 29. This will be three days after Netanyahu is expected to address the UN General Assembly. 

• The European Commission is expected to vote today to recommend a series of measures to be taken against Israel, including the suspension of a trade agreement and a renewal of import duties on Israeli products entering the European Union. In order to go into effect, the measures would need the approval of a qualified majority of European governments. Currently, opposition to the measures by Italy and Germany blocks such a majority, but speculation is rife that Italy could be persuaded to drop its opposition, especially if Israel takes retaliatory moves against the expected recognition of a Palestinian state next week, for example by shutting the French Consulate in Jerusalem. 
• The Israeli security cabinet is scheduled to meet tomorrow evening.

What’s happened: The IDF has indicated that it has now “begun destroying Hamas infrastructure in Gaza City”, suggesting that its promised offensive has now begun earlier than anticipated. Israeli tanks were reported in Gaza City, and it is estimated that approximately 350,000 have evacuated to different parts of the Gaza Strip.

• Objectives remain unchanged, namely dismantling Hamas and bringing the hostages home.
• Two divisions are operating, and more will join them in due course. The IDF is working to set the conditions for civilians to distance themselves from combat zones and move into humanitarian areas.
• Now that this offensive has begun, its priorities will be encircling and operating deeper within Gaza City. It follows close to two years of war since Hamas’s attacks on southern Israel on 7th October 2023, and is hoped to dismantle the terrorist group in its final bastion in the Gaza Strip.
• Approximately 60,000 reservists were called up for this operation, augmenting the 70,000 already in reserve service.
• Following Israel’s air strikes on Doha last week, Arab and Islamic leaders have met at an emergency summit convened in the Qatari capital. A joint Arab League and Organisation of Islamic Cooperation session, it included close to sixty countries including both Iran, all three Arab Abraham Accords signatories (the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco), as well as Egypt and Jordan.
• The summit was concluded with a joint statement calling for “all states to take all possible legal and effective measures to prevent Israel from continuing its actions against the Palestinian people…[including] reviewing diplomatic and economic relations with it, and initiating legal proceedings against it”, though it is unclear what practical steps will be taken in its aftermath, if any.
• Commenting at the summit, the Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian, alleged that last week’s airstrike amounted to “pure terrorism”, and that no Arab or Muslim capital was safe from similar strikes. This condemnation comes despite Iran themselves also firing a ballistic missile at US bases in Qatar in June.
• Qatar’s Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, accused Israel of having no genuine interest in peace, attempting “to thwart negotiations”, and pledged to “do whatever is necessary to preserve our sovereignty and confront Israeli aggression.”
• It is unclear how Qatar may do this, especially given its post-strike statements that it will continue to mediate ceasefire and hostage release negotiations between Israel and Hamas.
• Egypt has also reportedly called for the establishment of a Cairo-based joint Arab military command that would operate in a similar manner to NATO, providing assurances of mutual defence against external aggression and attacks.
• Despite their attendance at the Doha summit and prior statements condemning Israel’s air strikes, none of the Abraham Accords signatory countries sent heads of state, instead being represented by senior officials.

Context: US Secretary of State Rubio is partway through a regional trip to visit both Israel and Qatar. He is now due to visit the UK for meetings with the Foreign Secretary, Yvette Cooper, and “to join President Trump’s delegation for his unprecedented second State Visit.”

• While in Israel, Rubio reaffirmed that Washington’s priorities were the release of Israeli hostages and the destruction of Hamas, and refrained from directly criticising the Doha air strike in his public comments alongside Netanyahu.
• Earlier this morning while travelling to Doha, Rubio also warned of a “short window” in which to secure a ceasefire in Gaza while praising Qatar for its ongoing mediation of negotiations between Israel and Hamas.
• In a speech on Monday, Prime Minister Netanyahu also admitted that Israel was becoming increasingly isolated at a conference hosted by the Finance Ministry, specifically blaming Muslim immigration within the EU and online Qatari and Chinese propaganda.
• Netanyahu said part of this isolation was economic, with Israel needing to become more self-reliant. The Prime Minister singled out the arms industry as one where Israel would come to rely more on domestic production than on trade, expressing out loud what has been a growing consensus in Israel since the war began nearly two years ago.
• In the part of the speech that was most quoted, especially by critics of the Prime Minister, he said, “We are Athens and Sparta. But we’re going to be Athens and super-Sparta.”
• Leader of the Opposition Yair Lapid responded that “isolation isn’t fate, it’s the product of the wrong and failing policies of Netanyahu and his government,” while former Prime Minister Ehud Barak said, “’Super Sparta’ is the end of the country: economically, politically and militarily.”

Looking ahead: Last night, Canada, France, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar and UK held a call to discuss “advancing peace”. Chaired by President Macron of France, a subsequent readout said that “all leaders agreed that the focus must remain on advancing peace and security, including reaching a lasting ceasefire, securing the release of all hostages and the disarmament of Hamas, and scaling up flows of life-saving assistance for Palestinian civilians.”

• Ahead of President Trump and Secretary Rubio’s visit to London, it is likely that Prime Minister Starmer will raise these points, and attempt to further align the UK and US in calling for and advancing an immediate ceasefire and the release of hostages in Gaza, as well as increased aid provision.

What’s happened: IDF preparations for a major ground offensive into Gaza City continue apace. Four high-rise towers in the city that the army claims were being used by Hamas were destroyed yesterday following evacuation orders. Similar tower strikes have been happening over the course of the last week as the IDF moves forces into the outskirts of the city.

• According to IDF estimates, up to 300,000 people of the nearly one million who were sheltering in Gaza have already evacuated. The IDF believes that most of the rest will leave only when a major ground incursion begins. 
• Haaretz reports that reconstruction work is underway on the European Hospital in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip, and that two additional field hospitals are being set up, also in the southern part of the Strip. A new water pipeline connecting the humanitarian zone in al-Muwasi was connected to Egypt, and another power line was connected to an existing desalination facility.
• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Israel yesterday and traveled to the Western Wall in Jerusalem, accompanied by Prime Minister Netanyahu. Today he is meeting with Prime Minster and other top officials to discuss the war in Gaza and other topics. He told journalists that the US was “not happy” with the Israeli air strike in Qatar last week.
• Yesterday, Trump said Israel must “be very careful” and take action against Hamas, but emphasised Qatar’s importance. “Qatar has been a great ally to the U.S. A lot of people don’t know that. The emir is a wonderful person, actually.” Trump described Qatar as “a great ally.”
• According to media reports, Israeli officials are expected to raise with Rubio the possibility of Israel annexing some of the West Bank in response to the planned recognition of a Palestinian state later this week by a number of countries, including France and the UK.
• Foreign Minister Gideon Saar briefed diplomats in Jerusalem yesterday on Israel’s moves in Gaza and the West Bank.
  • Regarding the West Bank and the possibility of some kind of limited annexation, he said that no decision had been made yet.
  • Regarding a Palestinian state, he reiterated his opposition, and added that this was the overwhelming position of both Israeli officials and the Israeli public. Such a state, he said, would have as its “sole objective” the destruction of Israel.
  • On Gaza, he said that Israel had no interest in “controlling Palestinian’s lives there,” and spoke instead of a transitional period, possibly under an international mandate, as part of a comprehensive plan for the “day after” which was being worked out with the Americans.
• It was reported yesterday the Royal College of Defence Studies had decided to exclude Israeli participants from its programs in the next academic year. Critics of the move compared this exclusion unfavourably with the open door the College maintains to non-allied non-democratic countries, such as China. Amir Baram, Director General of the Israeli Ministry of Defence and himself an alumnus of the Royal College, called the decision “a profoundly dishonourable act of disloyalty to an ally at war.”

Context: The Security Cabinet met last night to discuss the hostage crisis. Maariv reports that the meeting ran for more than three hours and covered a long list of scenarios, including that Hamas might harm the hostages as the IDF moved into  its last redoubts in Gaza City. The Israeli television station Channel 12 reported that Israel had formulated measures to be carried out in response to any Hamas move to harm the hostages, but did not specific what those measures might be.

• IDF Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir spoke with MKs in the Knesset Committee for Intelligence Affairs, a subcommittee of the Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee and a rare forum outside the Government where officials have access to highly classified briefings and intelligence. Multiple leaks from the committee meeting indicate Zamir’s dissatisfaction with the Government’s decisions on the Gaza offensive due to begin soon.
• Zamir was quoted as not knowing what the Government’s goals in the operation were, including if the end result would be a full military administration of the territory, something the IDF has sought to avoid. Such direct military rule existed in Gaza from 1967 to 1994 and is expected to be a much more onerous task now than it was 31 years ago when it came to an end.
• Zamir was widely quoted in the press as saying that even a successful operation in Gaza City would not defeat Hamas, and ultimately Israel would be pushed to mounting another offensive in the refugee camps in the central region of the Gaza Strip. 
• Yedioth Ahronoth reports that Zamir specifically criticised the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, the aid mechanism that was established to bypass the UN and Hamas. He also told the Knesset committee that even in a siege, the IDF would continue to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza.
• Zamir told MKs that the Government’s plan put hostages at risk, put soldiers at risk, and did not have sufficient international legitimacy.
• There are also reports that Hamas has moved living hostages above ground into homes and tents in Gaza in an effort to make them into human shields. A video released this week of one hostage, Guy Gilboa-Dalal, showed him in the back seat of a car above ground.

Looking ahead: Qatar will host an “emergency summit” today in Doha of Arab and Muslim countries to formulate a response to Israel’s attack on Hamas leaders in its capital last week. Despite reports of Egyptian attempts to create a formal military alliance, the draft resolution circulated before the summit includes strong condemnatory language but no practical measures. 

• The Israeli public broadcaster’s Kan radio news bulletin reports that Israeli officials are bracing themselves for a wave of public condemnations once the IDF’s operation in Gaza City gets underway. 

What’s happened: The IDF and Shin Bet launched an attack on the Qatari capital of Doha yesterday in what is being described as “a precise strike targeting the senior leadership of the Hamas terrorist organisation.” The mission was led by the Israeli Air Force, with ten to fifteen jets participating and firing ten munitions at a single target. The US were informed of the operation as it was underway.

• It is understood that the Hamas ceasefire negotiation delegation was targeted including the Hamas leader in Gaza, Khalil al-Hayya, Zaher Jabarin, who leads Hamas in the West Bank, Muhammad Darwish, head of Hamas’s Shura Council, and Khaled Mashaal, head of Hamas abroad.
• While six individuals are reported to have been killed, five of those named were more junior Hamas members and one Qatari police officer. Thus far, there is no confirmation that the senior leaders have been killed while Hamas claims that they survived. Israeli defence officials are increasingly pessimistic that the intended targets were eliminated.
• The international community has almost universally condemned the strike. Prime Minister Starmer said that it was a violation of Qatar’s sovereignty, and risked further escalation across the region while reiterating his calls for an “immediate ceasefire, the release of hostages, and a huge surge in aid into Gaza.”
• President Trump said that “we are not thrilled about the way that went down today” while conceding that eliminating Hamas was a “worthy goal”, while the UAE condemned the attack “in the strongest terms,” while its Foreign Minister said the country was in “full solidarity with dear Qatar.” Saudi Arabia offered its “full support for the sisterly State of Qatar, and its condemnation of the blatant Israeli attack on the sisterly State of Qatar.”
• The incoming UN General Assembly’s President, Annalena Baerbock, branded the strikes “concerning” adding that “sovereignty and territorial integrity of all member states must be respected and not violated.”
• Prime Minister Netanyahu said yesterday of the operation in Doha that “the days are over when terror leaders will enjoy immunity in a particular place.”
• The IDF has issued an evacuation order for the whole of Gaza City ahead of its anticipated offensive which will begin in approximately a month. Approximately a million Palestinians are impacted by this order, and are being encouraged to evacuate to a humanitarian zone in al-Mawasi in the southern Gaza Strip.
• Elizabeth Tsurkov, a dual Israeli-Russian national who was being held hostage by Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq has been released to the US Embassy in Baghdad. An academic at Princeton University in the US, she was abducted while undertaking research in Iraq in 2023. While the circumstances surrounding her release are unclear, her cause was championed by the US and President Trump’s Special Envoy for Hostage Affairs, Adam Boehler.

Context: Israel’s strike on Doha follows the latest US ceasefire proposal. While Hamas indicated that it was willing to continue negotiations, it refused to accept the terms that were put to them. Shortly after, President Trump issued a “last warning” to the group, indicating there would be “consequences” unless they accepted a ceasefire.

• For some Israeli analysts, the yesterday’s strike underscored the importance of ending perceptions of Qatar’s immunity given that it had long sheltered and supported Hamas.
• One of the principal targets of the strike was Ghazi Hamad, who was quoted in the aftermath of the October 7 attack as saying, “Israel is a country that has no place on our land. We must remove it because it constitutes a security, military and political catastrophe to the Arab and Islamic nation… We must teach Israel a lesson, and we will do it twice and three times. The Al-Aqsa flood is just the first time, and there will be a second, a third, a fourth. Will we have to pay a price? Yes, and we are ready to pay it.”
• Ahead of the operation, there was reportedly a concern in the defence establishment about the high stakes of the operation, particularly about its impact on the negotiations for the release of Israeli hostages.
• Israel has not commented on its jets’ flight paths, with Israeli media reports indicating that the airplanes never entered Qatari airspace or, for that matter, the airspace of Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates. Given Israel’s swiftness in issuing a statement after the strikes took place and before the jets would have been able to return to Israel, this suggests little concern on their part.
• Since 7th October 2023, the Israeli Air Force has successfully operating in or over Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Yemen, and Qatar with no losses.

Looking ahead: The Hostages and Missing Families Forum has issued a statement indicating serious concerns about the Doha strike saying that a “grave fear now hangs over the price that the hostages may pay…[and that] we know from the survivors who have returned that the revenge directed at the hostages is brutal.”

• Despite attacking and criticising Netanyahu and Israel, the Qatari Prime Minister has indicated that Doha is still willing to continue mediating ceasefire talks.
• Later today, the United Nations Security Council will hold an emergency meeting in response to Israel’s Doha air strike. It is expected that Israel will be strongly condemned against the background of UNGA which began yesterday.