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What happened: Instructions remain in place for Israeli communities within 40km of the Gaza Strip border to stay in close proximity to bomb shelters following the assassination of three senior commanders of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).

• Following the Israeli strikes, yesterday Prime Minister Netanyahu held a press conference alongside Defence Minister Gallant, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi and Director of the Shin Bet Security Service Ronen Bar.  Prime Minister Netanyahu said that he and Defence Minister Gallant have instructed security forces to prepare for all escalation scenarios, including the possibility of more than one front.
• Ronen Bar revealed that one of the targets assassinated yesterday, Tarek Az Aldin, had been working on creating a rocket-launching apparatus in the West Bank city of Jenin and had taught a cell how to build and fire rockets.
• Following the earlier strikes, yesterday afternoon an IDF aircraft targeted a PIJ squad travelling by car, killing two operatives whist transporting anti-tank guided missiles to a launch pad in the southern Gaza Strip.
• Last night IDF soldiers killed two armed gunmen near Jenin, after troops came under fire from a passing car.

Operation Shield and Arrow: The operation launched early Tuesday morning caught the PIJ completely by surprise.

• It included 40 aircraft, that struck the three senior PIJ targets in their homes simultaneously.
  • Khalil Bahatini – PIJ Commander of the Northern Gaza Strip.
  • Jihad Ahnam – Secretary of the PIJ Military Council (released in the Shalit deal).
  • Tariq Az Aldin – Senior member of PIJ military leadership, responsible for military activities in the West Bank.
• Images of the strikes show the targeting of their apartments without causing extensive damage to the rest of the building.
• However, alongside the three senior commanders, 10 non-combatant Palestinians were killed, including four women and four children. Twenty others were injured.
• In addition to the three assassinations, several other PIJ military sites were also targeted.

Context: The decision to target the three senior PIJ commanders was made last week after over 100 rockets were fired towards southern Israel.

• One of the key indicators for this round of fighting will be whether Hamas also takes part in the fighting, and to what extent. Last August when Israeli launched Operation Breaking Dawn, which also targeted senior PIJ commanders, Hamas did not get involved.
• There is pressure from Iran (the main backer of PIJ) on Hamas to be part of the response.
• Khaled Mashal, the leader of Hamas outside the Gaza Strip threatened yesterday, “The blood-stained, vile assassination of three of the best of our nation in Gaza is a treacherous crime. There will be a strong response from the unified resistance forces.”
• As ever Egypt plays a critical role in the indirect mediation between the sides. Israel has reportedly sent a message via Egyptian mediators warning Hamas not to respond, saying that if Hamas were to join the fighting, its senior leadership would also be considered targets for assassination.
• If Hamas does choose to engage, this could lead to expansion of the operation, possibly beyond the Gaza Strip.
• One of the primary motivations of launching the operation was to restore deterrence. In particular following the rocket fire over Passover from not only the Gaza Strip but also from Lebanon and Syria.
• There were insinuations that the strike had a political dimension, due to pressure from Minister Ben Gvir. However, this has been stringently rejected, Yediot Ahronot quotes a source close to the prime minster clarifying, “The State of Israel’s security actions are not linked in any way to the steps taken by one party or another in the coalition and are taken only on the basis of security and state considerations.”
• Notably, Ben Gvir was not part of the security consultations, partly over fears of leaks, despite his role as Minister for National Security.
• Chief of Staff Halevi related to the deaths of the non-combatants, that Israel goes to lengths to avoid. However, he noted that the terrorists systematically operate from within the civilian population and, by so doing, placed their lives in jeopardy.

Looking ahead: Israel’s security establishment is on its highest level of alert ahead of possible retaliatory attacks.

• PIJ has warned that they would respond at a time, place and manner that would surprise Israel.