What happened: Instructions remain in place for Israeli communities within 40km of the Gaza Strip border to stay in close proximity to bomb shelters following the assassination of three senior commanders of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).

• Following the Israeli strikes, yesterday Prime Minister Netanyahu held a press conference alongside Defence Minister Gallant, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi and Director of the Shin Bet Security Service Ronen Bar.  Prime Minister Netanyahu said that he and Defence Minister Gallant have instructed security forces to prepare for all escalation scenarios, including the possibility of more than one front.
• Ronen Bar revealed that one of the targets assassinated yesterday, Tarek Az Aldin, had been working on creating a rocket-launching apparatus in the West Bank city of Jenin and had taught a cell how to build and fire rockets.
• Following the earlier strikes, yesterday afternoon an IDF aircraft targeted a PIJ squad travelling by car, killing two operatives whist transporting anti-tank guided missiles to a launch pad in the southern Gaza Strip.
• Last night IDF soldiers killed two armed gunmen near Jenin, after troops came under fire from a passing car.

Operation Shield and Arrow: The operation launched early Tuesday morning caught the PIJ completely by surprise.

• It included 40 aircraft, that struck the three senior PIJ targets in their homes simultaneously.
  • Khalil Bahatini – PIJ Commander of the Northern Gaza Strip.
  • Jihad Ahnam – Secretary of the PIJ Military Council (released in the Shalit deal).
  • Tariq Az Aldin – Senior member of PIJ military leadership, responsible for military activities in the West Bank.
• Images of the strikes show the targeting of their apartments without causing extensive damage to the rest of the building.
• However, alongside the three senior commanders, 10 non-combatant Palestinians were killed, including four women and four children. Twenty others were injured.
• In addition to the three assassinations, several other PIJ military sites were also targeted.

Context: The decision to target the three senior PIJ commanders was made last week after over 100 rockets were fired towards southern Israel.

• One of the key indicators for this round of fighting will be whether Hamas also takes part in the fighting, and to what extent. Last August when Israeli launched Operation Breaking Dawn, which also targeted senior PIJ commanders, Hamas did not get involved.
• There is pressure from Iran (the main backer of PIJ) on Hamas to be part of the response.
• Khaled Mashal, the leader of Hamas outside the Gaza Strip threatened yesterday, “The blood-stained, vile assassination of three of the best of our nation in Gaza is a treacherous crime. There will be a strong response from the unified resistance forces.”
• As ever Egypt plays a critical role in the indirect mediation between the sides. Israel has reportedly sent a message via Egyptian mediators warning Hamas not to respond, saying that if Hamas were to join the fighting, its senior leadership would also be considered targets for assassination.
• If Hamas does choose to engage, this could lead to expansion of the operation, possibly beyond the Gaza Strip.
• One of the primary motivations of launching the operation was to restore deterrence. In particular following the rocket fire over Passover from not only the Gaza Strip but also from Lebanon and Syria.
• There were insinuations that the strike had a political dimension, due to pressure from Minister Ben Gvir. However, this has been stringently rejected, Yediot Ahronot quotes a source close to the prime minster clarifying, “The State of Israel’s security actions are not linked in any way to the steps taken by one party or another in the coalition and are taken only on the basis of security and state considerations.”
• Notably, Ben Gvir was not part of the security consultations, partly over fears of leaks, despite his role as Minister for National Security.
• Chief of Staff Halevi related to the deaths of the non-combatants, that Israel goes to lengths to avoid. However, he noted that the terrorists systematically operate from within the civilian population and, by so doing, placed their lives in jeopardy.

Looking ahead: Israel’s security establishment is on its highest level of alert ahead of possible retaliatory attacks.

• PIJ has warned that they would respond at a time, place and manner that would surprise Israel.

What happened: Around 200 Israeli troops took part in a counter-terror raid yesterday morning, targeting the terrorists who killed three members of the Dee family.

• The raid deep into the casbah of Nablus was partially captured in Palestinian CCTV and appeared to show the lead IDF soldiers in disguise, including some dressed as women, others as labourers.
• Troops surrounded the building and following a short gun fight, the IDF announced that they killed the two Hamas terrorist operatives Hassan Ktnani and Maed Mitsri along with third Hamas operative Ibrahim Hura, who had helped them hide.
• The IDF also found two M-16 rifles and an AK-47 in the apartment used in the attack against the Dee family three weeks ago.

Responses: Following the operation, Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “This morning we settled the score with the murderers of Lucy, Maia, and Rina Dee. Our message to those who harm us, and to those who try to harm us, is that it may take a day, a week, or a month – be assured that we will come for you. It doesn’t matter where you try to hide, we will find you. Whoever harms us – their blood is on their own heads.”

• Rabbi Leo Dee told Ynet, “The world will be able to sleep better when these terrorists are no longer alive. I am very happy to hear that no soldier or civilian was hurt or affected in the event. It is a mission that only the IDF and the Shin Bet can do.”
• Curiously, the Governor of Nablus Ibrahim Ramadan released a statement saying, “The killing of the young men in Nablus this morning is a natural result of their non-compliance with the Palestinian security services and their refusal to surrender their weapons.”
• Chairman of Palestinian Authority (PA) Mahmud Abbas said, “We strongly condemn the aggression against Nablus and call on the American administration to act to stop it.”
• Hamas claimed all three men were members of their military wing and said the attack in the Jordan Valley was in response to the Israeli aggression against worshipers in al-Aqsa during the month of Ramadan.

Context: Intelligence sources have revealed that the security establishment knew the identity of the terrorists hours after the attack and assumed that they were hiding in the casbah in Nablus.

• They waited until they had the precise location of their hideout.
• The entire raid was completed in an hour, no other Palestinians were killed and no IDF forces were injured, though an IDF dog was killed whilst protecting a soldier.
• The raid is another intelligence coup for Israel, as well as a complex operation in the heart of a Palestinian city in broad daylight.
• The raid comes days after the latest flare-up when over a hundred rockets were fired from Gaza on Tuesday.
• The IDF responded with airstrikes against sixteen military targets, with one Palestinian reportedly killed.
• The relatively subdued response caused anger among some right wing members of the government. This anger was compounded when it was revealed that the prime minister did not invite Public Security Minister Ben Gvir to the security consultation. This is turn led Ben Gvir and his five members of Knesset to boycott parliamentary votes on Wednesday, with threats to resigns, and counter threats from the Likud telling him to quit.
• The cell, with its affiliation to Hamas, attests to a rise in Hamas involvement in West Bank terror. In addition one of the men killed yesterday was a close family relation of Husam Badran, a senior Hamas official released as part of the Gilad Shalit prisoner exchange, who now lives in Qatar.
• The third man killed was also a member of the Lion’s Den group, further proof of their coordination with Hamas.

• Overall there is growing concern over the terror infrastructure in the West Bank, particularly the phenomena of small cells armed with automatic weapons who are planning further attacks. There is increased speculation whether it will be necessary to conduct a wider scale military operation. Currently there are four possible scenarios:
  • A large scale operation across the West Bank: the logic being it is better to strike before there is a major terror attack and take the initiative.
  • Others have suggested a more gradual approach: instead of one large operation, a series of localised ones.
  • A third option is to continue the current practice of targeted operations that focus on specific intelligence against wanted suspects or ‘ticking bombs’ where an attack is imminent.
  • A fourth option is to empower PA security forces to operate against these threats.
  • A fifth option could be a combination of the last three options.

• Meanwhile, in Damascus yesterday, as part of his historic visit, Iranian President Raisi met with Palestinian leaders including the head of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Ziyad al-Nakhalah as the latest indicator of closer Iranian ties to Palestinian terror groups.

Looking ahead: Large deployments of IDF troops remain in place across the West Bank, with Hamas threatening to launch revenge attacks for yesterday’s killing.

• In the next couple of weeks, the Palestinians will mark the Nakba Day (catastrophe) on May 15, the English anniversary of Israel’s independence. Later that week, Israel marks Jerusalem Day, the anniversary of reunifying the city. Both dates have in the past seen a spike in hostilities.

What’s happened: A ceasefire is currently in place, following extensive rocket fire at southern Israel over the last 24 hours.

• The rockets came in several waves, beginning yesterday morning with three rockets fired towards Kibbutz Saad.
• The rockets came in response to the death of Khader Adnan, a 45-year-old member of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) who had been on hunger strike for the last three months whilst imprisoned. He had refused medical assistance and was found unconscious in his cell yesterday morning.
• Yesterday afternoon, (coinciding with end of the school day) 30 rockets were fired, including an intense barrage of 22 rockets in just five minutes. Of the 22, 16 fell in open areas, 4 were intercepted by the Iron Dome missile defence system, whilst 2 landed in Sderot. Three men were injured on a construction site, including one in a serious condition. He was hospitalised and is now stable.
• The IDF responded with air strikes targeting sixteen Hamas military sites, including weapon manufacturing facilities, military posts, and an underground terror tunnel.
• According to Palestinian sources, one Gazan was killed and five injured in a strike on a Hamas military post.
• Around 70 rockets were fired throughout the night, with warnings sounded beyond the Gaza Strip periphery to Ashkelon.
• Overall, of 104 rockets fired into Israel it is estimated that 59 landed in uninhabited areas (including at least 11 in the Mediterranean Sea). 24 were intercepted by the Iron Dome, whilst 14 failed to cross the border and landed inside the Gaza Strip. 7 rockets remain unaccounted for. The Iron Dome recorded 90% successful interceptions.

Context: Despite this latest round of fighting, the overall logic remains that both Israel and Hamas prefer a return to quiet and do not want a further escalation of fighting in the south.

• Unlike last August when Israel clashed with the PIJ and Hamas stayed out, yesterday Hamas gave its consent for PIJ to carry out the rocket attacks, but did not directly participate.
• There is concern in Israel that Hamas and PIJ are taking advantage of the perceived weakening of Israel due to the domestic unrest, including the economic fallout and perceived deterioration in ties with the US.
• There is also concern over the growing coordination and ties between the Palestinian terror groups and Iran. Last month saw Israel attacked from various fronts including rocket fire from Lebanon and Syria.
• Now that Ramadan has finished and the sensitive holiday period in Israel is over, there are some in the Israeli government calling for a harsher response to the rocket fire.
• Similarly, some residents of the south that have born the brunt of rocket attacks for close to two decades expect this right-wing government to respond more robustly.
• Some are calling for a return to targeted assassinations of senior terrorists in order to restore deterrence.
• Prior to his death Khader Adnan was not considered a senior PIJ figures, but had an enhanced reputation as he had been in and out of administrative detention and conducted numerous hunger strikes. He was considered one of the movement’s ‘spiritual leaders’, continuously advocating for terror attacks against Israel (hence his continued arrests).
• Adnan came from Jenin, raising concerns of possible revenge attacks emanating from there.

Looking ahead: Following the ceasefire brokered by Egypt and the UN, the IDF announced this morning a full return to normal in the Gaza Strip periphery, including schools which will be open as usual.

• Despite the declared ceasefire, Israeli officials have said they are prepared for ongoing hostilities, including heightened alerts in the West Bank.

What happened: Jordanian politician Imad Al-Adwan was arrested after he was caught smuggling almost 200 handguns and rifles at the Allenby Crossing on the Jordan River, from Jordan into the West Bank.

• He initially raised suspicions after he arrived by car at the border crossing on Saturday night with three large heavy suitcases.
• When taken for questioning he claimed that he was transferring gold, and that his parliamentary immunity would suffice.
• Following inspection of the bags, he was found to be smuggling 160 handguns and 17 M16 rifles, individually wrapped in cellophane.
• There are contradictory reports over whether he was also transferring any gold.
• He was taken for questioning by the Shin Bet Security Service where they will try and ascertain who gave him the guns and who was meant to be the recipient.

Context: There has been a significant increase of smuggling weapons from Jordan into the West Bank over the last year.

• However this appears to be the first instance of a Jordanian official involved.  Though there is speculation that this was not the first time Al-Adwan had smuggled in weapons.
• Al-Adwan is a member of the Jordanian parliament’s Palestine committee. He is known as a strong supporter of the Palestinians and Hamas. He is 35 years old, from one of the Jordanian tribes in the south (not a Palestinian).
• The recent heavy proliferation of automatic weapons among Palestinian militias has increased the intensity of gun fights between Palestinians and the IDF (during IDF counter-terror operations).  This has resulted in the deaths of dozens of young Palestinian combatants over the last year.
• This incident follows Ramadan that saw increased tension, particularly over the Jordan’s traditional custodial role over Muslim prayer on the Temple Mount.
• Israel and Jordan have been formally at peace since 1994, in that time there have been several security related incidents that have caused embarrassment and a rise in tension. This includes Israeli Mossad attempts to poison Hamas leader Khaled Mashal in 1997. In 2017 an Israeli Embassy security guard accidentally killed his Jordanian landlord with a stray bullet, following an alteration after he was stabbed by a young Palestinian. In this latest incident it’s the Jordanian side that may need to come up with some compensation.
• However, overall Israel and Jordanian security forces work in close cooperation on a range of shared security issues, including the threat from ISIS and other extremist groups and the integrity of their shared border.
• In the lead up to Ramadan Jordan hosted a summit in Aqaba, including senior Israeli, Palestinian, Jordanian, Egyptian and US officials, among a range of issues was improving security coordination.

Looking ahead: Jordanian diplomats are engaging with Israeli officials to try and secure his release.

• Israeli estimates believe he will be released after he has been questioned, with speculation over the terms and conditions that the Jordanians will pay in return.
• As in previous years, a general closure will be imposed upon the West Bank and the Gaza Strip from today until the end of Independence Day on Wednesday night.
• There remains a heightened state of alert with concerns over further attempted terror attacks.

What happened: There have been three separate terror attacks against Israeli citizens over the last three days.

• On Tuesday morning, there was a shooting attack in Sheikh Jarrah in East Jerusalem. Two men, both ultra-Orthodox, were driving back from morning prayers at the Tomb of Simon the Just when they were shot at close range. They were taken to hospital in moderate condition.
• The suspect fled the scene on foot, abandoning his Carlo gun. The attack was captured on CCTV that assisted in identifying the attacker.
• Earlier this month, the head of the Shin Bet Security Service, Ronen Bar, revealed it had prevented more than 200 “significant” terrorist attacks since the beginning of the year. Bar said that the thwarted attacks included “about 150 shooting attacks, 20 bomb attacks, car-rammings, suicide bombings, kidnappings and more.”
• On Monday, an Israeli man was wounded in a stabbing attack at the Gush Etzion Junction. IDF troops at the scene shot the assailant, a female Palestinian.
• Also on Monday, there was shooting towards Kibbutz Meirav, adjacent to the West Bank. No-one was injured, but one home was damaged.
• Yesterday, the IDF carried out a counter-terror operation in Jenin. The operation was based on intelligence that a Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) cell was planning to imminently launch a terror attack. Three PIJ operatives were arrested, two of whom were experts in assembling explosives. During the arrest armed gunmen fired and threw explosive devices at the forces, who responded with live fire. Palestinian sources reported five people were wounded, one in serious condition.

Context: The attacks coincide with the end of Ramadan, a period that saw two lethal terror attacks against Israeli citizens, including the shooting of three members of the British-Israeli Dee family.

• This week, the police announced that they prevented eight terror attacks in the last few days.
• Earlier this month, the head of the Shin Bet Security Service, Ronen Bar, revealed it had prevented more than 200 “significant” terrorist attacks since the beginning of the year. Bar said that “over 200 significant attacks have been thwarted, including about 150 shooting attacks, 20 bomb attacks, car-rammings, suicide bombings, kidnappings and more.”
• Yesterday, the Shin Bet cleared for publication the revelation that Hezbollah and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps have tried again to recruit two West Bank Palestinians to carry out terror attacks in Israel. It revealed that the men had been approached on social media and had subsequently agreed to smuggle weapons into the West Bank. They also agreed, at the request of Hezbollah, to collect intelligence about IDF activities and to recruit additional operatives to carry out more terror attacks.
• Meanwhile, the head of the Hamas political bureau Ismail Haniyeh led a delegation of senior Hamas officials to Saudi Arabia for the first time in eight years.
• In parallel, Palestinian Authority Chairman Abbas is also visiting Saudi Arabia and met earlier with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman.

Looking ahead: Next week Israel marks both Memorial and Independence Day. Security forces remain on the highest level of alert across all sectors, with intelligence suggesting more attacks are being planned.

• The manhunt continues for the terrorists who murdered Lucy, Rina and Maia Dee.