As of 3.30pm BST. For Update No.1 click here and for No.2 click here.

What’s happened: The Israeli death toll from the surprise Hamas attack launched yesterday morning has today risen to over 600, including around 240 mostly young people massacred at a “Nature Party”. At least 2,048 Israelis are injured, including at least 20 in critical condition and at least 330 seriously wounded.

• The IDF has killed over 400 terrorists and has retaken some sites infiltrated by the terrorists. It remains locked in gun battles with Hamas terrorists in areas across the south. This morning, police neutralised a terrorist car heading from Gaza towards Ashdod.
• Rocket fire from Gaza into Israel also continues, with the total launched since yesterday morning now believed to exceed 4,000. This morning, four Israelis were injured – one critically – when a rocket hit Sderot.
• In response to the Hamas attack, Israel continues airstrikes against terrorist targets in the Gaza Strip. The IDF confirmed that it today hit three terror command centres associated with both Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).
• This morning, IDF naval commandos also intercepted and killed a five-person terror cell trying to infiltrate Israel via the Zikim beach.
• With Israeli family members beginning to publicly identify relatives kidnapped by Hamas from online videos, the number of Israelis taken hostage and transported to the Gaza Strip is still unknown. Unconfirmed reports suggest there could be up to 100, while an Egyptian mediator claimed today that there are at least “several dozen”.
• The IDF has established a situation room dedicated to the hostages, and reports suggest there has been at least one Brit kidnapped, with a second Brit named amongst those killed.
• The IDF has begun evacuating civilians from southern border towns.
• In parallel to the south, in the north this morning mortar shells were launched at Israeli military sites in the Mount Dov region on the Lebanon border. Israel responded with artillery fire towards the area of the launches.
• The IDF also confirmed that it had launched a drone strike against a Hezbollah tent constructed over the Blue Line, and that it then fired warning shots when Hezbollah operatives came to try to rebuild it.
• There have also been extensive troop reinforcements deployed to the northern border, with concern remaining that Hezbollah might extend its mortar fire and other provocation into more serious engagement with the fighting.
• Elsewhere, two Israelis and their Egyptian tour guide were shot dead in the Egyptian city of Alexandria.

Context: Yesterday was the single deadliest for Israeli civilians in the history of the country.

• Israel has received considerable support from international allies. Prime Minister Netanyahu has spoken to a range of world leaders today, including Prime Minister Sunak, who expressed unreserved support for Israel’s right to defend itself as necessary.
• However, questions are being asked about Israel’s lack of preparedness for such an attack; the apparent ease with which infiltrators breached the border fence; and the speed of the ground and airforce deployment.
• The military’s immediate focus remains securing all southern areas infiltrated by the terrorists, and on fully resealing the border to prevent further infiltration.
• Some had previously hoped that Hamas had displayed pragmatism, and that its priority remained solidifying its own power and improving the Gazan economy. In recent weeks the conversation has centred on increasing the number of worker permits, increasing imports and exports, and expanding the Gazan fishing zone. Hamas has been shown, instead, to be utterly committed to the merciless slaughter of Jews and to the goal of destroying the State of Israel.
• Military officials and analysts had warned for some time that Israel’s internal divisions – exposed most glaringly by the judicial reform – were being interpreted by its enemies as a sign of weakness ripe for exploiting. However, fear was most acute concerning Israel’s northern front, and the better armed and financed – and assumedly less pragmatic – Hezbollah.
• The nature of Hamas’s penetration is becoming clearer. Having first used drones to attack Israeli observation towers and weapons systems on the border, terrorists on paragliders then flew over the border in the wake of a massive bombardment of rockets into southern and central Israel. Finally, holes were blown in the fence, allowing the further infiltration of Hamas terrorists.
• Speculation over the level of involvement from Hamas’s Iranian patron is considerable, with the apparent sophistication of the explosives used to breach the fence an indication that materiel was smuggled via Iran.
• The attacks are also being interpreted, in part, as an Iranian response to Israel’s growing integration in the region, and as a message to states looking to follow Morocco, Bahrain, and the UAE’s lead in normalising relations with Israel – not least Saudi Arabia.
• Hezbollah today warned both Israel and the US of a potential escalation of the conflict. The Iranian-backed Lebanese terrorist organisation has a considerably larger and more sophisticated arsenal of rockets than Hamas, including the ability to turn rockets into precision-guided missiles.

Looking ahead: The scale of Israel’s response, once the immediate objectives of re-securing the south and border have been accomplished, remains to be seen, with troops deployed ready for a potential ground assault.

• The risks and benefits of a ground invasion will be carefully weighed and considered only if a ground invasion can accomplish necessary objectives which air strikes cannot.
• Alternatives may also be considered. Following Energy Minister Israel Katz’s cutting of electricity to Gaza yesterday, other non-kinetic options may be considered in a bid to force Hamas to release hostages. While Israel is always reluctant to pursue measures targeted at Gaza’s civilian population, it could be argued that the scale of yesterday’s attacks is such that the traditional rules of engagement have shifted.

This News Update was written at 6.30pm BST. For our earlier update, click here.

• The Israeli death toll from Hamas’s surprise attack has risen to over 200. At least 1,100 Israelis are known to have been injured.
• At this time, there is continued rocket fire from Gaza towards central and southern Israel, with over 3,000 launches.
• The IDF has are currently operating in 22 border communities, going house to house to ensure that all terrorists are cleared from the area.
• The IDF has also confirmed earlier reports that they are engaged in an ongoing hostage situation in Ofakim and Beeri.
• There have been numerous accounts of hostages, both military and civilian, taken back into Gaza by terrorists.
• The IDF has now confirmed that it has re-taken from Hamas the Re’im military base in southern Israel, home to its Gaza Division.
• As well as many breaches of the land border, there were also infiltration attempts by sea, with the IDF intercepting at least four boats, including two speedboats – in total dozens of terrorists onboard.
• 31 regular IDF battalions are already in operation in the area around the Gaza Strip and Southern Israel, with a further four reservist divisions en route.
• In response to the invasion, Israel is striking Hamas targets inside the Gaza Strip. The so-called “Palestine Tower” in Gaza City – a known Hamas base – was struck and destroyed earlier, after an Israeli warning had been given for civilians to clear the area.
• Due to the unprecedented nature of the attack, Energy Minister Israel Katz has made an unprecedented decision to cut the power supply to Gaza.
• According to Palestinian sources, over 160 Palestinians have been killed – the vast majority are presumed to be combatants.
• In parallel to launching the operation from Gaza, Hamas has called for West Bank Palestinians, Hezbollah, and Israeli Arabs to join the fighting.
• Meanwhile, on the Norther border, close to Metula, Hezbollah operatives were filmed in a motorcycle convey close to the border. Israeli forces fired warning shots. The Northern Command remains on high alert.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu has spoken with US President Biden and told him that a “prolonged and powerful campaign would be required in which Israel would win”.
• Defence Minister Yoav Gallant has also spoken with US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, who said that the Pentagon will work in the coming days “to ensure that Israel has what it needs to defend itself and protect civilians from indiscriminate violence and terrorism.”
• Israeli President Isaac Herzog released a statement saying: “Today we saw the true face of Hamas. A terrorist army whose only goal is the cold-blooded murder of innocent men, women, and children. Supported and directed by their proxy commanders in Iran, they carried out an unprovoked, heinous attack against the Jewish state on a Jewish holy day. Innocent civilians were massacred and wounded, and many are still under attack. The State of Israel will take all measures necessary to eliminate this clear and immediate danger to our citizens. Israel will overcome in the face of all challenges. I call upon the family of nations – this war waged against us marks a line in the sand. Now is the time to hear clear, unequivocal condemnation of Hamas, its allies, and its backers in Iran. Now is the time to stand firm with Israel in support of its just and moral battle in the face of an abhorrent enemy.”
• Opposition leader Yair Lapid, who earlier today joined other senior opposition figures in expressing full unity with the government, also made public an offer he apparently made to Netanyahu earlier today to form an “emergency, narrow, professional government” unity government for the duration of the conflict.
• A senior adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was earlier quoted by a news agency supporting the attacks, while at a parliamentary session Iranian lawmakers chanted “Down with Israel,” “Down with America,” and “Welcome Palestine,” according to a video published by Tasnim news agency.

• Prime Minister Netanyahu has confirmed that Israel is at war, with armed terrorists currently operating in various population centres across southern Israel after a surprise Hamas attack was launched this morning from the Gaza Strip.
• The terrorists have infiltrated Israel by breaching the Gaza barrier, amid the firing of at least 2,200 rockets into southern and central Israel – including towards Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.
• The Magen David Adom emergency service says at least 22 people have been killed, according to Hebrew-language media reports, and there are reports of hospitals across Israel receiving at least 545 patients.
• Hamas has issued videos purportedly showing its terrorists breaching barriers protecting Israeli border communities.
• Further, unconfirmed, reports have claimed that terrorists have taken hostages, both dead and alive.
• The attack occurred in the midst of Simchat Torah, when hundreds of thousands of Israelis were on their way to the synagogues to celebrate with their communities and families.
• In response, the IDF has launched “Operation Iron Swords” and has announced a widespread call up in all areas, expected to draft tens of thousands of Israelis. The Israeli Air Force has struck Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip, including 17 military compounds and four headquarters.
• Gun battles between IDF troops and Hamas terrorists have taken or are taking place in multiple locations near the border, including in Kfar Aza, Sderot, Sufa, Nahal Oz, Magen, Be’eri and the Re’im military base.
• Six and a half hours after the initial attack, Israeli forces’ priority is on engaging remaining terrorists in Israel and resealing the border to prevent further infiltrations.
• The IDF’s top spokesman, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said: “At this time, the IDF is reinforcing the south and the communities surrounding the Gaza Strip with several operational forces. Operational commanders are arriving to manage the combat in each location. In parallel to this, we have begun a wide mobilisation of reservists for all IDF units.”
• Israeli Police Commissioner Kobi Shabtai said that the police are managing “a number of war zones together with the IDF and with special units and all the additional forces that have been launched towards the Gaza Strip.” He urged all citizens to stay in their homes and that “we know about civilians who are barricaded in all kinds of places.”
• Five hours after the start of the attack, Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed Israelis in a televised statement, saying “citizens of Israel, we are at war.” He continued: “And we will win. The enemy will pay a price like they have never known before.” He then convened a meeting of Israel’s Security Cabinet early this afternoon.
• Israel has no interest in harming the civilian population of the Gaza Strip and has always made the distinction of only targeting combatants and terror infrastructure. However, the terrorist organisations also know this and deliberately embed themselves amongst the civilian population, shooting at Israel whilst using their own population as human shields.
• Opposition leaders expressed a commitment to an iron-clad united Israeli front. Yesh Atid head Yair Lapid, National Unity leader Benny Gantz, Yisrael Beitenu chief Avigdor Lieberman and Labour party head Merav Michaeli said in a joint statement: “In days like these there is no opposition and no coalition in Israel.” They “are united in the face of terrorism” and the need to respond with “a strong and determined fist. It is necessary to mobilise the international community against terrorism.”
• Hamas has labelled the coordinated attack “Operation Al-Aqsa Deluge”, and claimed it is in response to (non-existent) Israeli “desecration” of Jerusalem’s Al Aqsa Mosque.
• It comes only a week after calm appeared to have been restored to the Gazan border, following weeks of violent rioting.
• International mediation from the US, UN, and Qatar seemed to have helped to reach an understanding between Israel and Hamas, allowing the reopening of the Erez Crossing and the re-entry of 17,000 Gazan workers into Israel.
• Hezbollah has issued a statement praising the attacks and saying they are a lesson to those Arab states which would look to normalise relations with Israel.
• In Jerusalem, Shabbat prayers have been cancelled, as police and IDF troops clash with Palestinians in the East of the city.
• The Magen David Adom emergency service has called on Israelis to donate blood.
• All schools south of Netanya and north of the central Negev are to be closed and businesses can only be opened if there is ready access to bomb shelters, the military says. Gatherings are also restricted to 10 people outdoors and 50 people indoors in those areas, the IDF Home Front Command says.
• Condemnation of the attacks has come from across the UK political spectrum. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said Israel has “an absolute right to defend itself” and that he was “shocked by this morning’s attacks by Hamas terrorists against Israeli citizens.”
• Foreign Secretary James Cleverly wrote on social media: “The UK unequivocally condemns the horrific attacks by Hamas on Israeli civilians. The UK will always support Israel’s right to defend itself.”
• Opposition Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said: “I utterly condemn the ongoing attacks on Israel and her citizens. There is no justification for this act of terror which is being perpetrated by those who seek to undermine any chance for future peace in the region. Israel has a right to defend herself.”

What’s happened: Thousands of Jewish worshippers gathered at the Western Wall today for the traditional priestly blessing.

• Hundreds of Israeli police and border patrol have been deployed in the Old City and the Jerusalem seamline.
• In addition, 750 Jews visited the Temple Mount yesterday, to coincide with the Sukkot festival.
• Meanwhile, Israel has reopened the Erez crossing to allow 18,000 Gazans with work permits to enter into Israel.
• The decision followed two weeks of violent rioting on the Gaza border, which led to the closure.
• The understandings to reopen the crossing was achieved through Egypt and Qatari mediation.
• The rioting had been led by the “Rebel Youth” organisation, which has affiliations with both Hamas and Islamic Jihad. They confirmed ending the violent protests but added in their statement, “if the Qataris cut even one dollar, we will unsheathe our swords against the occupier.”
• Hamas and the Rebel Youth are also threatening a resumption of violence in connection with Jews visiting the Temple Mount in Jerusalem.
• In parallel, members of the Israeli Security Cabinet convened yesterday to discuss a range of security issues, including sensitivity over the Temple Mount. Notably, the meeting excluded Minister Ben Gvir.

Context: Sukkot is one of the three festivals connected with an ascent to Jerusalem. Jews traditionally pray at the Western Wall. Since 1967, the Status Quo agreement ensures that all non-Muslims are allowed to visit Temple Mount but not pray.

• Ben Gvir is part of the campaign to extend Jewish rights on the Temple Mount, whilst Netanyahu has vigorously defended the status quo.
• Although the Temple Mount falls under the purview of Ben Gvir, he was excluded from yesterday’s meeting, as the latest sign of the prime minister’s growing frustration with his contrarian approach.
• Last month Ben Gvir tried to restrict visitation rights of Palestinian security prisoners. Despite that also being part of his ministerial responsibility, he was overruled in the Security Cabinet by the IDF, Shin Bet and the National Security Council.
• The Israeli-Hamas understandings are not new and resemble the agreements reached after Operation Guardian of the Walls in 2021. Israel is prepared to facilitate economic relief measures as long as there is no violence.
• Over the summer the Israeli government approved the development of the Gaza Marine natural gas field off the Gaza coast.
• The Rebel Youth organisation is thought to take instructions from the Hamas leadership. In turn the Rebel Youth led the incitement to violence, which included the use of powerful explosive devices, attempts to damage the security fence and infiltrate into Israel, as well as instances of live fire. Protestors also launched incendiary balloons into southern Israel. In response, Israel struck Hamas military targets, deploying drones, helicopters, and tank fire.
• As well as demands on Israel, Hamas is demanding Qatar increase its donations to poor Gazan families and maintain its supply of fuel for the Gazan power station.
• There is also tension between Hamas leadership and the Qatari government, with the Qataris keen for Hamas to develop its own longer-term solutions and wean themselves off reliance on Qatari funds.
• Overall, Hamas use the Gazan protestors as a pressure lever, whilst continuing to encourage terror attacks emanating from the West Bank and using the issue of the Temple Mount/Al Aqsa as a motivation for attacks.

Looking ahead: Israeli security forces remain on high alert, particularly in the Jerusalem and the West Bank until the end of the Sukkot festival next weekend.

• Hundreds of Jews are expected in visit the Temple Mount in the next few days.
• If the Gaza Strip remains quiet Israel is expected to:
  • Increase the number of entry permits for Gazan workers.
  • Expand the fishing zone off the coast of the Gaza Strip.
  • Allow more goods to be exported out of Gaza and allow the import of more equipment.

What happened: Mossad Director David Barnea gave a rare speech yesterday at the Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) at Reichman University, where he focused on Iranian state-sponsored terrorism.

• Barnea listed five factors that have boosted Iranian self-confidence:
  • The assistance it has provided Russia, particularly selling them UAVs.
  • The understandings Iran has reached with Saudi Arabia. Though in Barnea’s view, “these are not strategic agreements. They constitute a marriage of convenience that will fall apart before too long.”
  • A year into the domestic “hijab protests”, the regime has survived.
  • Iran’s increased sale of oil, mainly to China, which is improving Iran’s balance of payments.
  • Iran’s success in hostage diplomacy.
• Barnea revealed that in the last year the Mossad has, alongside international partners, prevented 27 Iranian led attacks against Israel and Jewish targets worldwide. He later gave examples of foiled attacks in Tanzania, Greece, Cyprus and Georgia.
• Ahead of the Jewish High Holidays Barnea warned, “any harm done to any Israeli or Jew in any way whatsoever, and I mean in any way whatsoever, via proxy or Iranian alike, will elicit a response against the Iranians who dispatched the terrorists and the policy makers who authorised the terror units to carry out the plots, from the bottom all the way up to the top. I mean what I say. The price will be exacted… deep inside Iran, in the heart of Tehran.”
• He continued, “this is state-sponsored terror… We are talking about a political directive handed down by the Supreme Leader. The funding comes from the state coffers, and planning and execution are done by national security and intelligence bodies.”
• He further highlighted the regime’s “use of terror in four arenas: on the home front, on the regional and international stages, and on the seas.”
• Relating to “hostage diplomacy”, Barnea accused Iran of, “cynically exploiting the detention of innocent foreign citizens for political and financial extortion or to improve its bargaining position in negotiations with the international community.”
• He added: “history has shown the world that appeasing aggression encourages further aggression and indeed escalation. Increased Iranian self-confidence will lead to growing aggression and terror.”
• He also related to Iran’s nuclear programme, warning, “the international community must not accede to a situation in which what separates Iran from military-grade enrichment is a decision alone.”
• In his conclusion, he said, the “international community must stand firm against Iran, refuse to remain silent in the face of its negative conduct, and act to restrain it. We must use a variety of tools and methods against its nuclear programme, its regional policies, and its terror activity.”

Context: His two key messages, in light of the ongoing threat  of terrorism, were a warning to the Iranian leadership that if they dare to attack soft Israeli or Jewish targets abroad they will be held directly accountable and there will be a response “in the heart of Tehran.”

• Secondly, the concern over the Russian-Iranian axis. There is speculation that in the future Iran could benefit from advanced Russian weapons like hypersonic missiles or advance MiG-35 fighter jets – these would pose a new threat to Israel.
• Barnea’s reference to hostage diplomacy refers to the recent release of US citizens held in Iran which led to the unfreezing of $6 Billion of Iranian assets held by South Korea.
• On the nuclear front, this week the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is expected to release its latest report that Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched at 60 percent purity is continuing to expand.
• There is concern that as a result of Israel’s internal conflicts there has been an erosion of Israeli deterrence.
• At the end of his speech Barnea made a reference to the domestic divides in Israeli society. He said, “we are a covert intelligence organisation in the service of a Jewish democratic state that has operated since its inception according to a clear set of values, and will continue to do so.”
• Whilst Israeli deterrence is vital, only a united front with the US – including the tangible threat of US action – is likely to substantively change Iranian behaviour.

Looking ahead: The Mossad and the wider Israeli security establishment remain on high alert over terror warnings both inside Israel and around the world.

• Foreign Secretary James Cleverly is visiting Israel this week, where he is also expected to address the ICT conference and relate to the Iranian threat. He will also accuse Iran of “enabling terrorism” through its support of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
• In a statement ahead of the visit Cleverly said: “the UK and Israel work closely together to keep our people safe,” whilst committing, “to renew our close security partnership, in the face of unacceptable threats from the Iranian regime.”
• During the two-day visit, the Foreign Secretary will also meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu, Foreign Minister Eli Cohen, as well as Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh.
• Barnea also highlighted that next month the embargo preventing Iran from importing missiles comes to an end. He warned, “It is clear that Iran will take advantage of this to rapidly and inexpensively procure everything it needs to manufacture ever larger quantities of increasingly high quality missiles and UAVs.”

What happened: The UN Security Council (UNSC) has extended the UN’s Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) mandate in southern Lebanon for another year.

• The UNSC approved the decision with the support of 13 out of 15 members, with Russia and China abstaining.
• In a marked achievement for Israel, UNIFIL forces received backing to operate independently and do not need to coordinate their activity with the Lebanese army.
• In addition, the Lebanese government was mandated to facilitate UNIFIL’s access to any site they wish to visit. This includes “announced and unannounced patrols.”
• In parallel to the UN decision, on Friday Iran’s foreign minister met with Hezbollah leader Nasrallah in Lebanon, as well as senior officials from Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas.

Context: UNIFIL was first established in 1978, but further expanded in UN Resolution 1701 following the Second Lebanon War in 2006, which forbade Hezbollah from maintaining any presence south of the Litani River.

• Ahead of the vote Israeli diplomats worked intensively, highlighting the importance of UNIFIL’s peacekeeping role, in particular their independent freedom of movement.
• As part of the effort, Israel’s Defence Minister Gallant visited New York last week and told the UN Secretary-General that “the potential for escalation on the northern border has risen in the wake of serious violations of sovereignty by Lebanon. Iran is pushing Hezbollah to act.”
• Gallant presented intel including maps and photographs highlighting Hezbollah’s recently established lookouts and increased presence on the border and attempts to create friction with IDF forces.
• Gallant also spoke about how Iran has increased funding and training for both Hezbollah and Palestinian terror groups.
• The latest Israeli assessment is that Hezbollah now has more than 150,000 missiles and rockets, as well as unmanned aerial vehicles, including assault drones, and special forces that can launch raids on land and at sea.
• To circumvent UNIFIL and 1701, Hezbollah operates under the guise of an NGO, ‘Green Without Borders’, which has established over 30 outposts along the Israeli border.
• Over the summer, there have been several provocative incidents by Hezbollah on the border. In one case two men were filmed climbing the security barrier and stealing an IDF surveillance camera. In a separate incident several men with face masks and dressed in military camouflage fatigues walked along the border with Israel.
• In July, IDF soldiers fired warning shots and crowd dispersal measures to disperse at least 20 Lebanese citizens who crossed about 80 metres into Israeli territory in the Mount Dov region. This was after Hezbollah placed two tents south of the Blue Line (inside Israel) in the area. One of the tents has been dismantled, while one tent remains.
• Last December, an Irish UNIFIL peacekeeper was killed and several others wounded after their convoy was shot at whilst driving through the town of Al-Aqbiya in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah was blamed, but denied involvement.

Looking ahead: Despite the positive endorsement of the UNSC, Israel will be keenly watching to see how the renewed mandate will be implemented on the ground.

• The overall assessment remains that Hezbollah is not looking for a wider conflict but is keen to test Israel’s resolve. Hezbollah’s aggressive posture remains primarily as an Iranian insurance policy in case the Iranian regime or their nuclear project is targeted.
• However, concern remains that a localised incident or a miscalculation could quickly lead to a wider confrontation.
• In the event of an escalation, the Hezbollah outposts on the border could become overt military positions from which Hezbollah could launch attacks inside Israel.

What happened: The Security Cabinet met yesterday and resolved, “to strike at the terrorists and whoever dispatches them, and authorised the Prime Minister and the Defence Minister to act accordingly.”

• The Prime Minister’s Office added, “The Security Cabinet backs the commanders and soldiers of the IDF and the personnel of the security services in their actions against terrorist elements.”
• According to Israeli media accounts the meeting included angry exchanges, reflecting the alternate world views of the security establishment opposing the agenda of right wing minister Ben Gvir and Smotrich.
• One security official who attended the meeting told Channel 12 News, “The meeting was surreal and unprofessional. It featured disagreements between the ministers and wasn’t issue-oriented.”
• Defence Minister Gallant raised the issue of Jewish nationalist hate crimes that has forced the security forces to divert resources and increased tension among the Palestinians. Ben Gvir reportedly responded angrily, saying, “Have you lost your minds? Israelis are being murdered and you’re focusing on those issues?”
• Another issue raised was the recent campaign of incitement against IDF officers by some right wing settlers, with the support of right wing ministers. Gallant said, “The campaign of verbal attacks on the IDF needs to be stopped immediately, and that’s connected to you and your parties (addressing Ben Gvir and Smotrich)….The attacks are irresponsible and make us look weak to our enemies. This is a security danger.”
• Ben Gvir responded, “I love the officers. You’re to blame for the situation. I have a problem with your policies as defence minister.” Gallant said, “Focus the fire on me. Take me to task.”
• In the course of the meeting, Ben Gvir demanded that restrictions be imposed on the Palestinians in the form of checkpoints and closures, and to resume targeted assassinations. He also demanded that the conditions of security prisoners’ incarceration be downgraded, for example restricting the range of television stations they can watch and by ending the policy of housing them according to organisational affiliation.
• Ben Gvir continued, “People were murdered. A mother in front of her daughter. A few days ago a father and son. And you keep talking about the danger of friction, the danger of nationalist crime. Have we lost our minds? I’m starting to think that we’re in Switzerland, that that’s our only problem. The discussion here is about terrorism. We need to come up with operative steps against terrorism.”
• Meanwhile the security professionals support further strengthening the Palestinian Authority (PA), with economic relief measures and supporting their security apparatus inside Palestinian cities as the best way to restore quiet.
• Earlier yesterday security forces arrested two suspects in the murder of Bat Sheva Nigri, the Israeli woman who was killed in the drive-by shooting attack Monday in the southern Hebron hills.

Context: The meeting followed three Israelis killed in two deadly shooting attacks this week.

• The latest victim was Batsheva Nigri, a 42-year-old mother of three and Kindergarten teacher, killed near Hebron on Monday while driving in a car with her 12-year-old daughter, who witnessed her death. The male driver of the car is in serious condition.
• Since the start of the year 34 people (32 Israelis, an Italian tourist and one worker from Gaza) have been killed in terror attacks. This is now more than all of 2022, which was already the highest year of fatalities since Operation Protective Edge in 2014.
• According to a recent assessment of the Shin Bet security service, there are around 200 active intelligence warnings of potential attacks. The Shin Bet has prevented over 350 shooting attacks this year.
• So far this year 1,560 Palestinians have been arrested and 750 guns have been confiscated.
• Whilst the vast majority of attacks have emanated from Jenin and Nablus in the northern West Bank, the most recent attack occurred in the Hebron region in the south.
• There is concern that this represents a wider embrace of terror tactics; Hebron has been a hub for terror in the past and known to have an established Hamas infrastructure.
• The majority of attacks this year have not been led by traditional terror organisations, but rather by individuals with no terror background, or new locally organised groups.
• The latest phenomena of roadside shootings are difficult to prevent as Palestinians and Israeli settlers use the same roads. This compounds the challenge of the policy of distinction: how to maintain quality of life for the Palestinian civilian population whilst targeting the terrorists.
• Contributing factors behind the attacks continue to be:
  • Large proliferation of weapons available in the West Bank, primarily smuggled from Jordan.
  • Online incitement, filming and glorification of attacks, particularly engaging disenfranchised young men on TikTok.
  • Erosion of the legitimacy of the PA.

Looking ahead: At present, the policy remains the pinpointed targeting of terrorists and their infrastructure based on intelligence, whilst causing minimum interference with Palestinians civilians.

• However there are calls, particularly among the settler population who feel the most vulnerable, to reinstate internal checkpoints or to launch a larger scale operation to target terror cells, and their weapons.
• The manhunt continues for the terrorist responsible for the deadly shooting of the father and son in Huwara on Saturday.
• Whilst there is continued concern that these recent shootings will inspire copycat attacks.

What happened: This morning an Israeli woman has been killed and a second person seriously wounded, shot whilst driving in the south Hebron hills in the West Bank.

• On Saturday afternoon two Israeli men, a father and his adult son, were shot dead at a carwash in Huwara.
• The terrorist approached them and spoke to them briefly, presumably to confirm they were Israeli Jews, before revealing a pistol and shooting them at point-blank range. He discarded his weapon and fled the scene on foot.
• Shay Silas Nigrekar, 60, and his son, 28-year-old Aviad Nir, drove from Ashdod on Saturday morning to a car garage in Huwara that Shay had used before, and then went on to have the car cleaned.
• At the time, the IDF was not deployed in large numbers in the vicinity. Only later were additional troops sent in to Huwara in order to secure the main road that runs through the village, when religious Jewish travel resumed after the Sabbath ended on Saturday night.
• The IDF launched a manhunt and later on Saturday IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Halevi visited the site of the attack alongside senior commanders and deploying troops to ensure there would be no clashes between Palestinians and settlers.
• In a separate incident, last night an Israeli man accidentally drove into the village of Turmus Ayya, in area A of the West Bank. He was attacked with rocks and lightly wounded. Local residents assisted him and he was extricated by IDF soldiers who responded to the call very quickly. Rioters then set his car on fire.
• In addition, there have been two incidents in the last 24 hours where the IDF has downed unmanned aerial vehicles launched by Hamas from the Gaza Strip. Yesterday an Iron Dome battery fired two missiles at a drone, which did not cross into Israeli territory. A similar incident repeated itself this morning.

Israeli context: Since the beginning of the year, 34 people (32 Israelis, an Italian tourist and one worker from Gaza) have been killed in terror attacks, including seven members of the security forces. A further 110 people have been injured.

• The Palestinian village of Huwara sits on the main road used by both by Palestinians and Jews to access the northern West Bank. Part of the village is area C (full Israeli control), part area B (Palestinian civil authority, Israeli security). Unlike area A (full PA civil and security) it is not illegal for Israelis to enter Huwara, and the carwash had signs in Hebrew.
• In February this year two brothers – Hallel Yaniv, 21 and Yagel Yaniv, 19 – were killed driving through Huwara. This precipitated revenge attacks by dozens of Israeli settler youth who violently rioted, setting fire to Palestinian property and vehicles.
• Today’s attack was the fourth shooting attack in August after a Tel Aviv municipality patrolman Amit Chen was shot and killed two weeks ago while preventing a much larger attack.
• There was also a shooting attack in Mishur Adumim, east of Jerusalem at the beginning of the month that injured five people.
• The Israeli government remains divided on their approach to the Palestinians, with the security establishment advocating confidence building measures to support the Palestinian Authority (PA). Ministers Smotrich and Ben Gvir have advocated its collapse, and aspire to annexation. This split is one of the reasons why Prime Minister Netanyahu has rarely convened the security cabinet.
• However, last week, even Smotrich gave his consent for the settler outpost of Aira Shahar to be destroyed as it was built on private Palestinian land. He faced backlash from religious leaders from his own camp.

Palestinian context: Mahmoud Abbas, the Chairman of the PA who will soon turn 87, has had a relatively productive summer so far. Facing ongoing criticism for corruption and collaboration with Israel, he reasserted his internal control, held several diplomatic meetings and chaired a reconciliation conference with Hamas.

• At the end of July Abbas visiting Jenin for the time in over a decade, where he started to re-establish his authority arresting some members of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).
• Earlier in August he sacked a dozen regional governors, include the governors of Jenin, Nablus, Tulkarm, Qalqilya, Bethlehem, Hebron and Jericho. He also fired four governors on behalf of the PA in Gaza, but as Hamas are in control this was seen purely symbolic.
• On the diplomatic front Abbas has met with several regional leaders including Turkish President Erdogan. He also met Egyptian President Sisi and King Abdullah II of Jordan at a three-way summit in El-Alamein, Egypt.
• At the end of last week Abbas convened the latest attempt at Palestinian reconciliation, hosting a conference alongside Hamas leadership, also in El-Alamein.
• The prospect of Smotrich and Ben Gvir influencing West Bank policy, plus the possibility of Israel-Saudi Arabia normalisation, has triggered renewed activity to stay relevant, including efforts to once more try creating a mechanism for talks towards reconciliation.
• Hamas has maintained its balance of paying lip service to reconciliation, maintaining order in Gaza whist seeking to undermine stability in the West Bank and encourage terror attacks.

Looking ahead: The IDF manhunt continues. Based on previous attacks, intelligence services are usually able to locate and apprehend the assailants.

• The alert remains raised over concern of further potential copycat attacks.
• PA Chairman Abbas will head the committee to select the new regional governors.

What’s happening: President Herzog will leave tonight on a diplomatic mission to the US.

• Herzog has been invited by the former Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi and the current Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
• In a statement last night, President Herzog said, “I am very much looking forward to representing the entire nation of Israel as President of the State of Israel, before the elected representatives of the American people, to mark the 75th anniversary of the State of Israel. The United States is Israel’s closest and most important friend and partner. The relationship between our countries is unique in its strength, which has rightly made it an unassailable alliance.”
• According to Herzog, as part of his agenda he will, “emphasise the importance of expanding the circle of regional peace and stress the essential need to fight against the hatred and terrorism that Iran is spreading while it pursues nuclear weapons. In my speeches and meetings, I will relate to my hosts as close partners in all the issues at hand, including the internal challenges and opportunities facing Israeli society.”

Context: The main purpose of the visit is to strengthen the relations and the partnership between the US and Israel.

• Israel’s political leadership is united in its concern over the Iranian threat, both nuclear and conventional, whilst also keen for the US to help advance normalisation with Saudi Arabia. (For more on this see BICOM’s recent paper.)
• Also on the president’s agenda will be to strengthen relations between Israel and the US Jewish community.
• The timing of the visit is particularly significant, due to the unfavourable impression made by some members of the current Israeli government and the fact that Prime Minister Netanyahu has, unusually, not yet been invited to the White House since his re-election last November.
• The Biden administration has expressed growing concern over both the Israeli government’s planned moves on judicial reform and its West Bank policy, particularly regarding increasing construction in settlements and settler violence against Palestinians.
• Last week the New York Times ran an oped by Thomas Friedman that suggested the US administration was ‘re-assessing’ ties with Israel. The term ‘reassessment’ has a precedent going back to the 1970s when a Rabin-led Labour government pushed back on US terms of an agreement with Egypt.
• The US President is keen to embrace Herzog as a representative of the Israeli people, whilst continuing to distance himself from the prime minister.
• However, the US continues to support Israel militarily. Two weeks ago Israel’s Ministry of Defence announced the purchase of additional 25 F-35 aircraft from the US government. This will enable the Israeli Air Force to operate a third squadron of the world’s most advanced stealth aircraft ,with the deal worth around $3 billion.
• Last July President Biden visited Israel and alongside Prime Minister Lapid signed the ‘Jerusalem Declaration’, which stated, “The enduring commitment of the United States to Israel’s security. Our countries further reaffirm that the strategic US-Israel partnership is based on a bedrock of shared values, shared interests, and true friendship.” The document further underscored, “unshakeable US commitment to Israel’s security, and especially to the maintenance of its qualitative military edge, the United States reiterates its steadfast commitment to preserve and strengthen Israel’s capability to deter its enemies and to defend itself by itself against any threat or combination of threats.”
• This will be President Herzog’s second visit to the US since taking office, while his speech in Congress will be only the second time an Israeli president has spoken to a joint session of both Houses. The first was by President Herzog’s father, the sixth President of the State, Chaim Herzog, more than 35 years ago.

Looking ahead: President Herzog will address a special joint session of the US Congress being convened to mark the 75th year of the State of Israel’s independence.

• The President will meet with President of Biden in the White House.
• The President is also expected to meet with Vice President Harris, which will focus on promoting  joint initiatives to mitigate the impact of climate change.
• He will also meet with other senior officials including Secretary of State Blinken and US National Security Adviser Sullivan.
• After Washington, President Herzog will travel onto New York where he will visit the United Nations and meet with the UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres. Herzog has invited Leah Goldin to join that meeting. She is the mother of the late Lt. Hadar Goldin, who fell in combat in the Gaza Strip during Operation Protective edge in 2014, and whose body remains held captive by Hamas.
• He will also meet with Governor of New York Kathy Hochul, Mayor of New York City Eric Adams, and members of the Jewish community.