What happened: In a presidential address, President Biden, flanked by his vice president and secretary of state, reassured Israel of their strong support.

• Biden spoke of Hamas as a “pure, unadulterated evil… unleashed on this world.” “The brutality of Hamas — this bloodthirstiness,” he said later, “brings to mind the worst rampages of ISIS.”
• He made explicit the US’s unequivocal backing of Israel in its response. “We must be crystal clear,” he said: “we stand with Israel.  We stand with Israel.  And we will make sure Israel has what it needs to take care of its citizens, defend itself, and respond to this attack.”
• In materialising this support, Biden confirmed that the US was “surging additional military assistance, including ammunition and interceptors to replenish Iron Dome. We’re going to make sure that Israel does not run out of these critical assets to defend its cities and its citizens.” He continued: “The United States has also enhanced our military force posture in the region to strengthen our deterrence.”
• In a thinly-veiled warning to Iran and its other proxies such as Hezbollah, Biden said: “to any country, any organisation, anyone thinking of taking advantage of this situation, I have one word: Don’t.”

On the Gaza Strip border: The Israeli death toll from the weekend attacks rose to over 1,200, with an additional estimated 150 hostages captive inside Gaza, and with 500 of the over 3,000 Israelis injured still hospitalised – 28 in critical and 345 in serious condition.

• Hamas rockets continue to strike at central and southern Israel, now exceeding 5,000 since Saturday morning.
• Four buildings in Sderot were hit this morning, and a 40-year-old man moderately wounded by shrapnel.
• Despite previous assurances that the terror threat inside Israel was neutralised there were still terror cells operating inside Israel.
• According to the IDF 18 Palestinian terrorists in seven separate incidents were killed inside Israeli in the last day.
• Among the incidents, on Tuesday night, troops killed three Palestinian terrorists in the Ashkelon industrial zone.
• Hamas have again sent frogman to infiltrate from the sea in Zikim, which were again successfully repelled.
• Over 1,000 bodies of terrorists have been found in the Gaza border area.
• As Israeli forces enter Israeli border communities, the scale of the atrocities are being further exposed. These include in Be’eri, where 100 Israelis are though to have been murdered, and in Kfar Aza, where Major General Itai Veruv said: “I’ve served as a combat soldier and officer for 39 years… I’ve never seen anything that comes close to this. It’s not even something that our parents knew. This is something out of the world of our grandfathers back in Europe, from the pogroms and the Holocaust.”

Inside Gaza: The Israeli Air Force is conducting an intensive bombing campaign and has struck over 2,500 Hamas targets.

• Overnight, it launched 200 attacks on the Al-Furqan neighbourhood in Gaza City which is a known Hamas hub.
• Over 70 Hamas targets in the Gaza City district of at-Tuffah were struck, as well as a military structure operated by Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
• Over 80 Hamas infrastructure targets were hit in norther Gaza’s Beit Hanoun, including two bank branches used by Hamas, an underground tunnel, several war rooms, and other military installations.
• Another target hit included the Khan Younis home of the father of Mohammad Deif, the senior Hamas military commander. The home of Hamas’s military wing spokesman, known as Abu Obeida, was also hit.
• According to Palestinian sources 950 Gazans have been killed, with 5,000 injured.

Northern front: Missiles were launched at northern Israel from Lebanon last night. 15 rockets were launched from Lebanon – 4 were intercepted by Iron Dome with the rest landing in open areas. Though Hamas claimed responsibility, Hezbollah is considered responsible for any fire emanating from southern Lebanon, and IDF tanks shelled two Hezbollah posts in response.

• An anti-tank guided missile was later launched from Lebanon at an armoured vehicle near the northern town of Avivim. It was claimed by Hezbollah and an Israeli helicopter struck a third Hezbollah site in response.
• Mortar fire was also incoming from Syria, with several crossing into Israeli territory. They landed in open areas, causing no damage. The IDF carried out artillery strikes on the mortars’ source in Syria in response.
• This morning there were more sirens in northern Israel.

Context: The Israeli government has set as its objective to completely destroy all of Hamas’s military capabilities.

• With 300,000 reservists called up – deployed both in the north and the south – the IDF is poised to intensify its engagement. The intensive air force bombing campaign is also understood to be part of the preparation to allow for a ground incursion, by targeting Hamas’s preparations.
• Biden’s warning is being interpreted as a direct threat to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah that if Iran’s Lebanese proxy attempts to intervene in the fighting, it will be met with the might of the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group recently moved to the Eastern Mediterranean along with a bolstered US fighter aircraft presence.
• Israeli commentators have interpreted Biden’s backing as the most significant support a US president has ever given Israel.
• In adding that “this is not about party or politics; this is about the security of our world, the security of the United States of America,” Biden underscored that Israel’s security is intertwined with that of the free world.
• Biden also confirmed he had spoken yesterday with the leaders of the UK, France, Germany, and Italy to discuss “coordinat[ing] our united response”.
• Similarly, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak told Sky News that “we stand in solidarity with Israel and the people of Israel in the face of these barbaric acts of terrorism”.
• Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, has also indicated that the US is in negotiations to try to create a safe passage for Gaza’s civilians to leave the Strip.

Looking ahead: As part of the pressure tactic on Hamas, Israel has temporarily blocked all supplies into Gaza.

• According to sources inside Gaza, their power plant only has enough fuel for another 10-12 hours. The main Shifa hospital in Gaza City has enough diesel to power generators for another four days.
• The bombing campaign is seen to be a precursor to a ground operation, that will further target Hamas and possibly include attempts to free the hostages.
• On the Israeli internal political front, negotiations are ongoing to bring Benny Gantz’s National Unity Party into the government.

On 9th October 2023, BICOM Director Richard Pater appeared on BBC News’ “The Context” to discuss the latest developments following Hamas’s attack on Israel.

Following his appearance on Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy’s LBC programme on Sunday, BICOM Director Richard Pater was interviewed again on the station yesterday. He spoke about Israel’s response to Hamas’s surprise attack over the weekend, and efforts to resolve the plight of the Israeli hostages kidnapped by Hamas.

• Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed the nation last night saying, “We didn’t want this war. It was forced upon us in the most brutal and savage way.”
• “The savage attacks that Hamas perpetrated against innocent Israelis are mindboggling: slaughtering families in their homes, massacring hundreds of young people at an outdoor festival, kidnapping scores of women, children and elderly, even Holocaust survivors. Hamas terrorists bound, burned and executed children.”
• Adding: “Hamas is ISIS and just as the forces of civilization united to defeat ISIS, the forces of civilization must support Israel in defeating Hamas.”
• Israel has now confirmed the death toll has risen to 900, with over 2,600 injured.
• The Israeli Airforce has continued its bombing campaign, striking 1,290 Hamas targets inside the Gaza Strip. The strikes have focused on Hamas’s capacity to fire rockets and other military assets.
• Nevertheless, rockets have continued to be fired into Israel, though since last night at a less intense rate. Overall, there have now been over 4,500 incoming rockets directed at Israel.
• Meanwhile, a Hamas military spokesman yesterday warned that “any targeting of civilian homes without advanced warning will be met regrettably with the execution of one of the enemy civilian hostages we hold, and we will be forced to broadcast this.”
• IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi spoke last night with his US counterpart, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Brown. They agreed to fully coordinate and to prepare for severe scenarios in the event of a multiple-theatre war. A US Aircraft Carrier is expected to arrive in support soon.

Northern front: Hezbollah fired mortars on Israeli border positions yesterday morning, while in the afternoon four armed men infiltrated Israeli territory and killed two Israelis troops, one of whom was Lt. Col. Alim Abdullah, 40, the deputy commander of the 300th “Baram” Regional Brigade and from the northern Druze village of Yanuh-Jat.

• Two of the infiltrators were killed while the other two fled to Lebanon.
• The IDF responded by bombing positions in southern Lebanon, reportedly killing three Hezbollah operatives. Hezbollah retaliated with an anti-tank missile fired at an IDF vehicle and with more mortar fire on Israel. No further Israeli casualties were reported.
• The direct source of the attacks out of Lebanon is thought to be Palestinian – Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). However, their moves will have needed to be authorised by Hezbollah.
• By engaging Hezbollah operatives on Lebanese soil, Israel is departing from a tradition which has lasted since the end of the 2006 Lebanon War.

Context: The Israel government has articulated its goals as “stripping Hamas of its capabilities”, with Minister Avi Dichter telling Army Radio that the aim was “denying or destroying the military terrorist infrastructure used by Hamas and Islamic Jihad and damaging Hamas’s governance in Gaza.”

• Dichter added: “Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza as governmental organisations and mainly as military organisations won’t remain after this war.”
• The IDF has called up 300,000 reserves who await their deployment.
• Israel has now confirmed it is in full control of the border area, with growing anticipation that there will be a ground incursion into the Gaza Strip. However, its scale and depth are unclear, with plans being formulated by the head of the Southern Command.
• A ground offensive in Gaza has not been launched since Operation Protective Edge nearly ten years ago.
• While IDF doctrine has always provided for the prospect of a multi-front war, an escalation of the conflict with Hezbollah presents a task of an altogether different magnitude than fighting Hamas. The Lebanese group is considerably better trained, equipped, and resourced.
• As a further element of Israel’s response, Defence Minister Yoav Gallant yesterday said of Gaza that “there will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed.”
• Dealing with a massacre and mass casualties on such a scale, it was untenable for Israel to continue supplies as normal into the Gaza Strip.
• It is hoped that pressure will be brought to bear on Hamas to release the hostages.

International support: Israel continues to receive wide and unequivocal backing from its international allies. In a joint statement yesterday, the US, UK, France, Germany, and Italy said that “our countries will support Israel in its efforts to defend itself and its people against such atrocities. We further emphasise that this is not a moment for any party hostile to Israel to exploit these attacks to seek advantage.”

• The Palace of Westminster was last night lit with the colours of the Israeli flag. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak also attended a service at Finchley United Synagogue last night, where he said “I am unequivocal… there are not two sides to these events. There is no question of balance. I stand with Israel. We stand with Israel. The United Kingdom stands with Israel.”
• Ten British Jews are believed to be among the dead and missing.
• Around 5,000 people attended a vigil for Israel near Downing Street last night. Senior members of all three main UK political parties were present, along with the Chief Rabbi.

Looking ahead: Efforts are underway within the international community to resolve the hostage situation. A spokesman for the Qatar foreign ministry said his country has been holding talks with all sides and has suggested a proposal for a first step: female Palestinian prisoners in Israel for female Israeli prisoners in Gaza.

• Meanwhile, sources involved in talks between Prime Minister Netanyahu and National Unity Party Chairman MK Benny Gantz have talked up the prospects of the forming of a national unity government, with a final decision expected this afternoon following coalition meetings. Maariv polling shows 80 percent of Israelis in favour of a unity government.

On 9th October 2023, BICOM Director Richard Pater spoke with Naga Munchetty on BBC Radio 5 Live about the latest developments following Hamas’s attack on Israel.

BICOM has released multiple briefings since Hamas’s surprise attack began on Saturday morning. To track developments as they emerged, see our updates 1, 2, and 3.

What happened: Two days after the initial breach, the IDF has announced that it has regained control of all towns on the Gazan border, but that terrorist cells may remain inside southern Israel.

• This morning, residents of Sderot, Kibbutz Nirim and Kibbutz Alumim were being instructed to remain locked in their homes.
• In Sha’ar Hanegev four armed terrorists were killed in a gunfight with Israeli troops.
• Due to remaining breaches in the border fence, Hamas terrorists are still able to enter into Israel, with the group claiming a cell kidnapped more Israeli civilians yesterday.
• Overall the Israel death toll stands at at least 700, of which around 260 mostly young people were massacred at a music festival. There are around 2,300 people injured.
• There is still continued rocket fire – over 3,300 rockets have so far been fired from the Gaza Strip towards southern Israel.
• According to the terrorist factions, they are holding 130 Israelis as hostages inside the Gaza Strip.
• Yesterday the government appointed Brig. Gen. (res.) Gal Hirsch to be the coordinator for the return of the captives and the missing. He has been given a list of more than 350 names of missing people.
• The Israel Air Force have continued to bomb military targets, conducting over 500 strikes overnight inside the Gaza Strip. According to reports from Gaza, 460 Palestinians have been killed so far in IDF strikes. With another 400 terrorists killed inside Israeli territory.
• The Israeli Navy Commandos yesterday captured a senior member of Hamas’s naval unit in Gaza, Muhammad Abu Ghali.
• IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi made his first statement last night. “We can expect long and complex days of fighting,” he said. “We will maintain our state of readiness in all of the theatres and everyone, in their theatre, will do their best. We will continue to attack in all of Gaza, broadly, particularly in those places from where the attacks on our territory originate. The IDF is strong and will operate with strength and will win.”

Context: The attack began early Saturday morning, timed to coincide with the Jewish holiday of Simchat Torah in Israel. The well planned sophisticated attack included air, land and sea invasions.

• The attack began with drone strikes against Israeli monitoring equipment on the border fence; both cameras and communication antennae.
• It also included armed terrorists on motorised paragliders. These can be seen on video footage arriving to attack the music festival.
• Heavy explosives were detonated against the security barrier creating around 80 breaches in the concrete fence. According to the IDF assessment, around 800 to 1,000 terrorists infiltrated into Israel through those breaches. They attacked 20 communities and 11 IDF bases.
• In addition, several boats with dozens of armed terrorists attempted to infiltrate into Israel via the sea, but were thwarted by the Israeli navy.
• Military officials believe that Hamas planned the operation for more than a year and had kept it secret even from Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), which joined after it began. Until this weekend the most recent rounds of fighting were between Israel and PIJ, with Hamas remaining on the sidelines.
• According to the Wall Street Journal senior officers from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August in order to plan out the invasion into Israeli territory.
• It is thought, given the quality of the powerful explosive material used to detonate the fence, that this was smuggled in under the guidance from Iran.  In addition, the swarm tactics, preparations and  execution suggest Iranian influence.
• Yesterday, the Iranian President spoke with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’s political bureau, based in Qatar.

For further context on the attacks and their possible repercussions, see our update from yesterday afternoon.

Looking ahead: There remain concerns that Hezbollah in Lebanon could open a second front against Israel, with reports of Hezbollah fighters spread out across the border with Israel.

• As part of support from the US, the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier and its accompanying warships are on their way to into Israeli waters in the Mediterranean.
• Talks are expected to take place later today to bring in Benny Gantz and his party into an emergency unity government.

As of 3.30pm BST. For Update No.1 click here and for No.2 click here.

What’s happened: The Israeli death toll from the surprise Hamas attack launched yesterday morning has today risen to over 600, including around 240 mostly young people massacred at a “Nature Party”. At least 2,048 Israelis are injured, including at least 20 in critical condition and at least 330 seriously wounded.

• The IDF has killed over 400 terrorists and has retaken some sites infiltrated by the terrorists. It remains locked in gun battles with Hamas terrorists in areas across the south. This morning, police neutralised a terrorist car heading from Gaza towards Ashdod.
• Rocket fire from Gaza into Israel also continues, with the total launched since yesterday morning now believed to exceed 4,000. This morning, four Israelis were injured – one critically – when a rocket hit Sderot.
• In response to the Hamas attack, Israel continues airstrikes against terrorist targets in the Gaza Strip. The IDF confirmed that it today hit three terror command centres associated with both Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).
• This morning, IDF naval commandos also intercepted and killed a five-person terror cell trying to infiltrate Israel via the Zikim beach.
• With Israeli family members beginning to publicly identify relatives kidnapped by Hamas from online videos, the number of Israelis taken hostage and transported to the Gaza Strip is still unknown. Unconfirmed reports suggest there could be up to 100, while an Egyptian mediator claimed today that there are at least “several dozen”.
• The IDF has established a situation room dedicated to the hostages, and reports suggest there has been at least one Brit kidnapped, with a second Brit named amongst those killed.
• The IDF has begun evacuating civilians from southern border towns.
• In parallel to the south, in the north this morning mortar shells were launched at Israeli military sites in the Mount Dov region on the Lebanon border. Israel responded with artillery fire towards the area of the launches.
• The IDF also confirmed that it had launched a drone strike against a Hezbollah tent constructed over the Blue Line, and that it then fired warning shots when Hezbollah operatives came to try to rebuild it.
• There have also been extensive troop reinforcements deployed to the northern border, with concern remaining that Hezbollah might extend its mortar fire and other provocation into more serious engagement with the fighting.
• Elsewhere, two Israelis and their Egyptian tour guide were shot dead in the Egyptian city of Alexandria.

Context: Yesterday was the single deadliest for Israeli civilians in the history of the country.

• Israel has received considerable support from international allies. Prime Minister Netanyahu has spoken to a range of world leaders today, including Prime Minister Sunak, who expressed unreserved support for Israel’s right to defend itself as necessary.
• However, questions are being asked about Israel’s lack of preparedness for such an attack; the apparent ease with which infiltrators breached the border fence; and the speed of the ground and airforce deployment.
• The military’s immediate focus remains securing all southern areas infiltrated by the terrorists, and on fully resealing the border to prevent further infiltration.
• Some had previously hoped that Hamas had displayed pragmatism, and that its priority remained solidifying its own power and improving the Gazan economy. In recent weeks the conversation has centred on increasing the number of worker permits, increasing imports and exports, and expanding the Gazan fishing zone. Hamas has been shown, instead, to be utterly committed to the merciless slaughter of Jews and to the goal of destroying the State of Israel.
• Military officials and analysts had warned for some time that Israel’s internal divisions – exposed most glaringly by the judicial reform – were being interpreted by its enemies as a sign of weakness ripe for exploiting. However, fear was most acute concerning Israel’s northern front, and the better armed and financed – and assumedly less pragmatic – Hezbollah.
• The nature of Hamas’s penetration is becoming clearer. Having first used drones to attack Israeli observation towers and weapons systems on the border, terrorists on paragliders then flew over the border in the wake of a massive bombardment of rockets into southern and central Israel. Finally, holes were blown in the fence, allowing the further infiltration of Hamas terrorists.
• Speculation over the level of involvement from Hamas’s Iranian patron is considerable, with the apparent sophistication of the explosives used to breach the fence an indication that materiel was smuggled via Iran.
• The attacks are also being interpreted, in part, as an Iranian response to Israel’s growing integration in the region, and as a message to states looking to follow Morocco, Bahrain, and the UAE’s lead in normalising relations with Israel – not least Saudi Arabia.
• Hezbollah today warned both Israel and the US of a potential escalation of the conflict. The Iranian-backed Lebanese terrorist organisation has a considerably larger and more sophisticated arsenal of rockets than Hamas, including the ability to turn rockets into precision-guided missiles.

Looking ahead: The scale of Israel’s response, once the immediate objectives of re-securing the south and border have been accomplished, remains to be seen, with troops deployed ready for a potential ground assault.

• The risks and benefits of a ground invasion will be carefully weighed and considered only if a ground invasion can accomplish necessary objectives which air strikes cannot.
• Alternatives may also be considered. Following Energy Minister Israel Katz’s cutting of electricity to Gaza yesterday, other non-kinetic options may be considered in a bid to force Hamas to release hostages. While Israel is always reluctant to pursue measures targeted at Gaza’s civilian population, it could be argued that the scale of yesterday’s attacks is such that the traditional rules of engagement have shifted.

This News Update was written at 6.30pm BST. For our earlier update, click here.

• The Israeli death toll from Hamas’s surprise attack has risen to over 200. At least 1,100 Israelis are known to have been injured.
• At this time, there is continued rocket fire from Gaza towards central and southern Israel, with over 3,000 launches.
• The IDF has are currently operating in 22 border communities, going house to house to ensure that all terrorists are cleared from the area.
• The IDF has also confirmed earlier reports that they are engaged in an ongoing hostage situation in Ofakim and Beeri.
• There have been numerous accounts of hostages, both military and civilian, taken back into Gaza by terrorists.
• The IDF has now confirmed that it has re-taken from Hamas the Re’im military base in southern Israel, home to its Gaza Division.
• As well as many breaches of the land border, there were also infiltration attempts by sea, with the IDF intercepting at least four boats, including two speedboats – in total dozens of terrorists onboard.
• 31 regular IDF battalions are already in operation in the area around the Gaza Strip and Southern Israel, with a further four reservist divisions en route.
• In response to the invasion, Israel is striking Hamas targets inside the Gaza Strip. The so-called “Palestine Tower” in Gaza City – a known Hamas base – was struck and destroyed earlier, after an Israeli warning had been given for civilians to clear the area.
• Due to the unprecedented nature of the attack, Energy Minister Israel Katz has made an unprecedented decision to cut the power supply to Gaza.
• According to Palestinian sources, over 160 Palestinians have been killed – the vast majority are presumed to be combatants.
• In parallel to launching the operation from Gaza, Hamas has called for West Bank Palestinians, Hezbollah, and Israeli Arabs to join the fighting.
• Meanwhile, on the Norther border, close to Metula, Hezbollah operatives were filmed in a motorcycle convey close to the border. Israeli forces fired warning shots. The Northern Command remains on high alert.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu has spoken with US President Biden and told him that a “prolonged and powerful campaign would be required in which Israel would win”.
• Defence Minister Yoav Gallant has also spoken with US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, who said that the Pentagon will work in the coming days “to ensure that Israel has what it needs to defend itself and protect civilians from indiscriminate violence and terrorism.”
• Israeli President Isaac Herzog released a statement saying: “Today we saw the true face of Hamas. A terrorist army whose only goal is the cold-blooded murder of innocent men, women, and children. Supported and directed by their proxy commanders in Iran, they carried out an unprovoked, heinous attack against the Jewish state on a Jewish holy day. Innocent civilians were massacred and wounded, and many are still under attack. The State of Israel will take all measures necessary to eliminate this clear and immediate danger to our citizens. Israel will overcome in the face of all challenges. I call upon the family of nations – this war waged against us marks a line in the sand. Now is the time to hear clear, unequivocal condemnation of Hamas, its allies, and its backers in Iran. Now is the time to stand firm with Israel in support of its just and moral battle in the face of an abhorrent enemy.”
• Opposition leader Yair Lapid, who earlier today joined other senior opposition figures in expressing full unity with the government, also made public an offer he apparently made to Netanyahu earlier today to form an “emergency, narrow, professional government” unity government for the duration of the conflict.
• A senior adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was earlier quoted by a news agency supporting the attacks, while at a parliamentary session Iranian lawmakers chanted “Down with Israel,” “Down with America,” and “Welcome Palestine,” according to a video published by Tasnim news agency.