What’s happened: The British Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary have made highly critical statements of the Israeli government’s policy in Gaza.

• Speaking in parliament, Keir Starmer said, “We’re horrified by the escalation from Israel. We repeat our demand for a ceasefire as the only way to free the hostages.”
• David Lammy meanwhile accused the current Israeli government of “isolating Israel from its friends and partners around the world” in what is arguably the UK’s strongest recent condemnation of Israel.
• Lammy specifically referenced and condemned recent comments from Israel’s Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, who “even spoke of Israeli forces cleansing Gaza, destroying what’s left of residents, Palestinians being relocated, he said, to third countries.” 
• Lammy branded these comments as dangerous extremism, adding that he condemned it “in the strongest possible terms”.
• The British government also announced that it was suspending free trade negotiations with Israel, effective immediately, and that planned cooperation under the 2020 Bilateral Roadmap would be reviewed.
• Writing on X (formerly known as Twitter), Minister for the Middle East and North Africa Falconer said he had summoned Israel’s Ambassador and “made clear the UK’s opposition to expanded military operations in Gaza and rising violence & intimidation by Israeli settlers against Palestinian communities in the West Bank. The UK will not stand by as this happens.”
• The Israeli Foreign Ministry accused the British government of not advancing the free trade negotiations at all event prior to the announcement and suggested that “If, due to anti-Israel obsession and domestic political considerations, the British government is willing to harm the British economy — that is its own prerogative.” 
• The statement also argued that the sanctions were unjustified and regrettable, especially as they came days after an Israeli woman was murdered in a recent West Bank shooting attack.
• Conservative Shadow Trade Minister Greg Smith condemned the UK government’s decision, telling The Telegraph: “It is an absurdity that the UK Government have taken a new stance which has won the support of Hamas – an organisation we proscribe as a terrorist organisation – and is the aggressor in the war with Israel.”
• Several EU Foreign Ministers, including those of France and the Netherlands, have demanded a review of the EU-Israel Association Agreement, the treaty governing Israel-EU relations which has been in effect for 25 years. Yesterday EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas said that EU has decided to review the EU-Israel Association Agreement. 
• A total of 93 trucks entered the Gaza Strip yesterday through the Kerem Shalom crossing. They transported flour, baby food, medical equipment and medicine.

Context: Starmer and Lammy’s comments followed Monday’s joint statement by the British, French, and Canadian governments opposing Israel’s renewed military operations in Gaza.

• That statement called for increased aid provision, and condemned settlement in expansion in the West Bank. It also ominously stated that “will not hesitate to take further action, including targeted sanctions.” It also referred to the current Israeli government’s actions as “egregious”, and claimed that its “escalation is wholly disproportionate.”
• Hamas praised the joint statement, saying that it reflected a “principled stance” and was a “significant step in the right direction”.
• Media reports throughout the day yesterday were dominated by the claim by UN humanitarian chief on BBC Radio 4 that “there are 14,000 babies that will die in the next 48 hours unless we can reach them.” This headline featured prominently next to media reports of the joint UK-France-Canada announcement as well as Lammy and Starmer’s comments. 
• This claim about 14,000 babies facing imminent death appeared to originate in an IPC report estimating that by March 2026 14,000 children under the age of 6 could be facing malnutrition. It is worth noting that even the IPC estimates of imminent famine in Gaza, which Fletcher’s claim grossly exaggerated, have been consistently wrong over the entire year and a half of the current war
• It is notable that while the joint statement calls on Hamas “to release immediately the remaining hostages they have so cruelly held since 7 October 2023,” Starmer’s statement in parliament regarding the hostages employed an entirely different formulation: “We’re horrified by the escalation from Israel. We repeat our demand for a ceasefire as the only way to free the hostages.”
• The joint statement criticised Israel directly and repeatedly. It singled out for praise (in the same sentence) the United States, Egypt, and Qatar. It described ending Hamas control of Gaza as a long-term goal, but did not offer any method of achieving that goal. 
• Any change in the EU-Israel Association Agreement is unlikely due to an anticipated veto by Hungary and the Czech Republic.
• With US backing, Israel has endeavoured to establish the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, a mechanism for the distribution of Humanitarian Aid to Gazan civilians that would ensure that aid does not fall into Hamas hands. The Foundation is directed by the American social entrepreneur with a record of humanitarian work in conflict zones named Jake Wood.
• Major international aid agencies have largely refused to work with the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, insisting that aid can only come through the same channels that were used before, and which have been repeatedly commandeered and exploited by Hamas.
• The emergency aid which Israel let through this week was not directed by the Foundation.
• The sanctions announced targeted three settler leaders, two outposts in the West Bank, and two organisations the FCDO alleges supports violence against local Palestinian communities. One of these settler leaders is Daniella Weiss, who the British government says “has been involved in threatening, perpetrating, promoting and supporting, acts of aggression and violence against Palestinian individuals”. Weiss is often known as the “Godmother” of the settler movement, and has been a leading figure in post-October 7 attempts by an extreme fringe of Israelis to resettle the Gaza Strip.

Looking Ahead: Negotiations are still ongoing in Qatar for a ceasefire that would include a release of hostages.

• Despite some optimism over the past week, reports from the past two days indicate an impasse, and Israel has recalled its high-level negotiators, leaving behind more junior representatives with a narrower mandate to negotiate.
• Talks had earlier focused on versions of the Witkoff initiative, which would have seen the release of up to ten of the twenty living hostages and a ceasefire of roughly two months.
• There were also reports of newer initiatives involving a full hostage release and end to the war, but the gaps between the sides on the conditions for an end to the war — on issues like reconstruction, Hamas disarmament, and future governance of the Strip — are even larger.

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu has responded to a joint statement from the UK, France, and Canada condemning Israeli conduct in the West Bank and Gaza Strip which also threatened sanctions in the event of settlement growth.

• In a statement released last night, Netanyahu said “By asking Israel to end a defensive war for our survival before Hamas terrorists on our border are destroyed and by demanding a Palestinian state, the leaders in London, Ottawa and Paris are offering a huge prize for the genocidal attack on Israel on October 7 while inviting more such atrocities.”
• Netanyahu also reiterated that “Israel accepts President Trump’s vision and urges all European leaders to do the same”, and that in the event of Hamas releasing the remaining hostages, its leaders being exiled, and Gaza demilitarising, the war could “end tomorrow.”
• The joint British, French, and Canadian statement opened by condemning Israel’s expansion of operations in the Gaza Strip, branded the recently announced aid provision expansion as “wholly inadequate”, and threatened “further concrete actions in response” unless Israel ceased its military options and lifted restrictions on Humanitarian Aid.
• West Bank settlement expansion was specifically highlighted as another area of concern, which the statement said “undermined…the security of both Israelis and Palestinians” while threatening “targeted sanctions.”
• The statement also condemned Hamas’s  October 7 attacks against Israel while branding its response as “wholly disproportionate” and “egregious”, reiterating support for an immediate ceasefire and eventual implementation of a two-state solution, and a commitment to “work with the Palestinian Authority, regional partners, Israel and the United States to finalise consensus on arrangements for Gaza’s future, building on the Arab plan.”

Context: The UK, France, and Canada’s statement almost immediately followed Israel increasing its aid provision based on the US-led plan. 

• Yesterday, the first aid entered the Gaza Strip in eleven weeks, amounting to a total of five UN food lorries. This follows Prime Minister Netanyahu agreeing to allow a “minimal” amount of food into the coastal enclave to prevent famine.
• While the UN’s humanitarian chief, Tom Fletcher, welcomed this development, he also described it as a “drop in the ocean” and said that “significantly more aid must be allowed into Gaza, starting tomorrow morning”.
• Israel emphasises that it monitors the level of essential goods in Gaza daily via COGAT and that aid is to supplied based on actual need.
• Previously, during a 42-day ceasefire starting in January, Israel facilitated 25,000 aid trucks into Gaza — creating a surplus of food and goods.
• There is renewed concern in Israel that while the aid delivery mechanism remains unchanged the trucks will be susceptible to being taken over by Hamas.     
• Concurrently, Israeli negotiators were also instructed to remain in Doha despite the apparent lack of a breakthrough which could lead to a ceasefire and the release of the remaining 58 hostages, held in brutal captivity now for 592 days.   
• Adam Boehler, the US special envoy for hostage response, also said that “we’re closer than we ever were” to reaching an agreement without providing further details.
• Some in Israel have criticised the government’s current policy. In Yediot Ahronot, Nadav Eyal writes that “Had the government presented a realistic plan for Gaza’s future, and had it genuinely engaged in dialogue with Canada, France, Britain…. Israel might have been able to exert the necessary pressure on Hamas.” He adds that such pressure “without doubt, is very justified. For real security to prevail, Hamas has to truly give up power and disarm, to make way for an alternative administration. But for Israel to have a functioning society that is able to fight, we have to recover our hostages from the burning agonies of the fire in Gaza.”
• The IDF is continuing its operations across the Gaza Strip as part of Operation Gideon’s Chariots, striking over 160 targets and dismantling a tunnel previously used to attack Israeli troops in the southern Gaza Strip.
• There are also unconfirmed reports that an undercover Israeli special forces unit infiltrated Khan Yunis and eliminated Ahmad Sarhan, a senior member of the Popular Resistance Committees. The PRC is a small but aggressive group which is best known for abducting Gilad Shalit in 2006. The Israeli government has not commented on this story, but the PRC have announced Sarhan’s death, referring to him as a “special operations officer.”
• The IDF has also confirmed that it conducted an air strike in Lebanon yesterday, targeting and killing a member of Hezbollah’s special operations Radwan Force in the Houla area.

Looking ahead: It is expected that US and Israel supported aid distribution hubs operated by US security contractors will open in the southern Gaza Strip next week. This will be a new mechanism, aimed at delivering aid more efficiently to the civilian population and circumventing Hamas. However, the UN and other  agencies have indicated they will not co-operate with these plans, arguing they contradict fundamental humanitarian principles of impartiality, independence, and neutrality.

• The Houthis have claimed that they will now enforce a naval blockade on the northern Israeli port city of Haifa, and that ships heading there would be targeted. 
• The UN has also set a date for a French and Saudi sponsored conference on the two state solution which is due to take place from June 17 to 20 at the UN headquarters in New York. Its intentions is to set the conditions for more states to formally recognise Palestine.

What’s happened: The kidnapped soldier was released yesterday evening after 584 days in captivity. 

• He is now recovering in hospital in Tel Aviv, having been reunited with his parents and siblings at an IDF base in the Gaza envelope. 
• Dr. Hagar Mizrahi, the director of the Health Ministry’s General Medicine Division, told Kan News, “Edan appears to be all right and is able to stand on his own two feet. He will need to be put through extensive tests to determine his true physical and emotional condition.”  Mizrachi added that, “He’s independent, is speaking and appears to all of us to be okay. Having said that, we know  that a lot of things can remain hidden behind that ‘okay.’”
• Upon his release Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “This was achieved thanks to our military pressure, and the political pressure that was exerted by President Trump. That is a winning combination.” 
• Netanyahu added, that he had spoken with President Trump who expressed his commitment to Israel and “continuing to work with you in close cooperation in order to achieve all of our war objectives. To free all of the hostages and to defeat Hamas. They go together; they are intertwined with one another.”
• Later last night the IDF announced that it attacked a number of prominent Hamas terrorists in a command and control compound that Hamas had established in Nasser Hospital in Khan Yunis.

Context: Though every hostage released is seen as a blessing, 58 hostages remain in captivity. Thirty five are understood to be dead. Twenty are alive, whilst the status of three is unclear.    

• Edan Alexander’s release was unlike all the others that have taken place until now, as this was a US led initiative that circumvented Israel. 
• Unlike in the past, Hamas held no release ceremony (reportedly at Trump’s specific demand) and nothing was given in exchange. 
• Also unlike the past, it was Steve Witkoff, the US Special Envoy (rather than an Israeli official) who was the person to receive the call from Alexander once Hamas handed him over to Red Cross officials.
• Israel’s role was limited to agreeing to pause aerial intelligence gathering over Gaza and the facilitation of an access corridor in the Khan Yunis area to allow the Red Cross in and out. 
• There is speculation over the motives of Hamas to agree to this release without receiving something in return. Was it simply a good will gesture to curry favour with Trump during future talks, or was it part of a wider Qatari strategy (which along with the gift of a $400m luxury plane) meant to secure US support for ending the war on their terms. 
• This release is the first one since January 22^nd, and there is renewed hope that this will reinvigorate efforts to reach a new deal. Israel had already given their consent to Witkoff’s most recent proposal that reportedly includes the release of around half of the living hostages over a 40-day ceasefire, during which time intensive negotiations will look to release all the remaining captives and end the war.
• Israel has continued to insist that Hamas cannot remain in power in Gaza on the day after the war, whist Qatar, perceived as Hamas’s main backer, have a vested interest in them remaining in situ.
• Concerns remain over humanitarian conditions inside the Strip, although Israeli officials continuing to insist there are currently still enough supplies.
• In parallel, the US is working on a new mechanism to allow aid to reach the Gazan civilian population whilst circumventing Hamas. Israel is keen to support any initiative that will deprive Hamas of its governing capabilities. 
• Born to Israeli parents, Alexander grew up in the US, moved to Israel after high school and joined the Golani infantry brigade.  
• Israeli media reported that upon his release, he described to his family being outnumbered 30 – 1 when he was captured on his Kissufim base on the Gaza border on October 7^th. 
• The fact that Trump was able to extract him – due to his dual nationality – has caused some disquiet in Israel and among other hostage families that have sadly concluded that holding US citizenship is worth more than just being Israeli.     

Looking ahead: There is speculation as to whether Alexander might fly to Doha and meet President Trump. Although his medical condition is stable, he is likely to remain in hospital and not travel at this point. 

• Israeli negotiators led by the former Shin Bet deputy, and including the Coordinator for the Hostages and the Missing Persons Gal Hirsch, the prime minister’s foreign policy adviser, Ophir Falk, and Mossad and IDF Military Intelligence Directorate representatives, will travel to Doha today and are expected to remain there at least until Thursday to see if a new deal can be reached. 
• Meanwhile, the IDF has continued to prepare for a potential large-scale ground manoeuvre.

Edan Alexander is free. What comes next? Richard Pater, Director of BICOM, spoke with LBC on 12 May 2025 about the release of Edan and President Trump’s upcoming trip to the Middle East.

What’s happened: US envoy Steve Witkoff unveiled an American aid initiative for Gaza at the UN yesterday. 

• The US is looking to establish a Gaza Humanitarian Foundation which would operate four distribution sites in the Gaza Strip, serving 1.2 million people initially. 
• The Foundation would not be operated by the US government personnel, but rather private contractors and would not involve the IDF in its operations, instead relying on its own private security. 
• It would endeavour to distribute aid in a way that circumvents Hamas control and prevents out the possibility of Hamas profiting from it. 
• This proposal would be more in line with the IDF’s preference for aid to be distributed by a private international organisation not affiliated with Hamas or UNRWA. Top brass in the IDF have resisted calls by some ministers in government for the IDF to be directly responsible for distributing aid.
• Fighting continued in the Gaza Strip yesterday. Two Israeli soldiers, Sergeant Yishai Elyakim Urbach, 20, from Zichron Yaakov and Staff Sergeant Yam Frid, 21, from Slait died in two separate incidents in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. Two other soldiers were seriously wounded in the same attacks. 
• Israel announced that of  the 24 hostages officially presumed to be alive, there are grave concerns about three, two foreign hostages and one Israeli. Families of all three have been informed. This follows days of rumours on the heels of President Trump’s references to 21 living hostages, rather than the official number of 24. 

Context: In parallel with the IDF’s resumption of fighting in Gaza since mid-March, no aid has been allowed into the Strip.

• During the last hostage deal around 600 trucks of aid entered the strip every day which allowed Hamas to replenish and stockpile goods, but those could run out in the next few weeks.
• Earlier this week, there was a clash between the IDF Chief of Staff Zamir and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, after the minister declared it was unnecessary to allow Humanitarian Aid into Gaza. Zamir reportedly responded, “You don’t understand what you are saying. You are endangering us all. There is international law and we are committed to it. We cannot starve the Strip, your statements are dangerous.”  
• Israel had hoped that the temporary block on aid would create internal pressure on Hamas to agree to a new hostage deal, but this has not transpired. 
• Ahead of Trump’s visit to the region next week there was some hope that his presence would serve as a catalyst for the sides to reach an understanding around the Witkoff / Egyptian parameters31(12.7%). 
• Meanwhile, it is now being reported that the US is pursuing a broad defence deal with the Saudis and no longer conditioning it on normalisation of ties with Israel. If true, this would be a dramatic reversal of a longstanding US policy, and significant shift in a major policy priority of both the Biden administration and the first Trump administration.
• This would be the third time in recent weeks that the US appears to have distanced itself from Israeli policy positions. The first was when Trump announced the resumption of talks with Iran, whilst sitting alongside Prime Minister Netanyahu. The second  was earlier this week, when the US announced it was ending its bombing campaign against the Houthis, on the same day Israel attacked Yemen in response to the missile attack on Ben Gurion Airport. 
• In addition, President Trump’s flattering remarks about Turkish President Erdogan and the announced withdrawal of US forces from Syria have also raised concerns in Jerusalem.   
• The new US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, known both for his strong pro-Israel views and his loyalty to Trump, defended the US ceasefire with the Houthis in an interview with Israel’s Channel 12 News in unusually blunt language, saying, “The United States isn’t required to get permission from Israel to make some type of arrangement that would get the Houthis from firing on our ships.”
• Since the renewal of hostilities in March, eight Israeli soldiers have fallen in combat in Gaza and one died in an accident near the Strip. The latest deaths take the number of troops killed since the start of the war to 856, including 414 since the launch of the ground operation inside Gaza in November 2023.
• As well as the fighting in Gaza, the IDF remains active across other fronts including the West Bank and Lebanon. Most recently, the Israel Air Force carried a significant air strike in southern Lebanon yesterday, reportedly against a large Hezbollah tunnelling project near the Israeli border.

Looking Ahead: The IDF continues its preparations for a major offensive  in Gaza. Thousands of reserve soldiers have already been called up. Speaking to reservists yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “to Hamas I say one thing: The rules are about to change very soon.”

• It is widely believed that a major military operation will not get underway until after President Trump’s Middle East visit next week.
• The very public nature of the preparations, while obviously eliminating the element of surprise, are understood to be a means of pressuring Hamas to agree to a hostage deal and ceasefire on terms that are more agreeable to Israel.