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Israel, the UK and the world

Key background
  • The UK and Israel share a strong relationship, built on historical, economic, and diplomatic ties. Both nations collaborate closely in trade, science, technology, and defence, with the UK being a key partner to Israel. The UK supports Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state. Scientific progress, academic partnerships, and shared values of democracy further strengthen the bond.
  • Israel maintains diplomatic ties with 165 of the other 192 UN member states.
  • Israel maintains full diplomatic relations with two of its Arab neighbours, Egypt and Jordan, after signing peace treaties with the former in 1979, and the latter, 1994.
  • In 2020, supported by the US, Israel signed the Abraham Accords agreements establishing diplomatic relations with Bahrain, the UAE and Morocco.
Dan Jarvis MBE MP
Photo credit: gov.uk, under Open Government Licence v3.0.

Updated March 27, 2025

UK to require Iranian agents to register under new security scheme

What’s happened: The UK’s Security Minister, Dan Jarvis has announced that Iranian state agents and their proxies must register themselves with a new scheme intended to curtail covert foreign influence in the UK, or face up to five years in prison.

  • The Foreign Influence Registration Scheme (FIRS) will launch in the summer, and is described by the Home Office as a “two-tier scheme which strengthens the resilience of the UK political system against covert foreign influence and provides greater assurance around the activities of certain foreign powers or entities that are a national security risk.”
  • While both Russia and China have been mooted as potential FIRS candidates, Iran is the first state to be explicitly named as requiring its agents to register with the Home Office under an “enhanced tier.”
  • This tier would “specify a foreign power, part of a foreign power, or an entity subject to foreign power control, where the Secretary of State considers it necessary to protect the safety or interests of the UK”, and intended to promote transparency around those engaging with MPs, ministers, and senior civil servants.
  • Under FIRS, all Iranian state agents would be required to register, including members or associates of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS). 
  • FIRS does fall short of the long called for IRGC proscription Labour committed to pre-general election, but does match its manifesto pledge to “take the approach used for dealing with non-state terrorism and adapt it to deal with state based domestic security threats.”
  • Jonathan Hall KC, the UK’s independent state threat and terrorism legislation reviewer, has also been instructed to review the sections of the UK’s counter-terrorism legislation that could be applied to “modern day state threats, such as those in Iran.”

Context: Iran is now recognised as one of the hostile states posing the greatest threat to UK national security and interests, both abroad and at home.

  • In October, MI5 confirmed that Iran was responsible for 20 foiled assassination and abduction plots in the UK since 2022. While announcing FIRS’s focus on Iran, Jarvis also said that Iran’s main targets in the UK were British Jews, Israelis, and anti-regime Farsi-language media outlets.
  • During the trial of convicted Iranian spy, Daniel Khalife, last year, it was found that in addition to targeting sensitive military units and attempting to gather intelligence on the identities of special forces operators, Iran was also prioritising targeting Israelis and dissidents.
  • Iran and its UK proxies are also recognised as playing a major role in attempts to radicalise local Muslim communities, especially Shiites. In his speech yesterday, Jarvis specifically mentioned both the Islamic Centre of England and the Al-Tawheed Charitable Trust, welcoming the Charity Commission’s statutory enquiry into them.
  • The Islamic Centre of England is often referred to as the IRGC’s “London office”, held events commemorating the death of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, and had its trustees stripped of their powers by the Charity Commission.
  • In September 2024, GCHQ’s National Cyber Security Centre issued a joint warning with the FBI and Treasury indicating that “Attackers working on behalf of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps use social engineering to gain access to victims’ online accounts,” and that “malicious activity is targeted against individuals with a nexus to Iranian and Middle Eastern affairs, such as current and former senior government officials, senior think tank personnel, journalists, activists and lobbyists.”
  • While the Home Office is understood to have consistently recognised the scale of the Iranian threat and supported IRGC proscription, the FCDO is widely reported as having opposed the proposal due to fears of prejudicing Anglo-Iranian relations.
  • Unlike the US who proscribed the IRGC in its entirety as a terrorist organisation in 2019, the UK maintains an embassy in and full diplomatic relations with Iran. In the event of IRGC proscription, Tehran may respond by breaking off diplomatic relations which the FCDO believes directly undermine the UK’s interests and priorities.
  • Instead of proscription, the UK has instead preferred responding to Iran with a regime of sanctions jointly administer by the FCDO and Treasury. The Iran (Sanctions) Regulations 2023 were intended to “deter the Government of Iran or an armed group backed by the Government of Iran from conducting hostile activity against the United Kingdom or any other country and to encourage the Government of Iran to comply with international human rights law and to respect human rights.” 
  • In addition to these concerns about Iran’s malicious role in the UK, there are increasing international fears about continued uranium enrichment as part of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear project. 
  • According to the latest assessment of the IAEA, Iran continues to enrich its stockpiled uranium, and is believed to have done so up to 60% in the past quarter increasing its weight from 182kg to 275kg.
  • While Tehran maintains that its conduct is fully compliant with IAEA stipulations, a number of concerns remain outstanding.  
  • The UK also maintains a separate anti-nuclear sanction regime which “is aimed at encouraging the Iranian Government to comply with relevant UN obligations and abandon nuclear weapons programmes; and at restricting the ability of Iran to develop nuclear weapons delivery systems.”

Looking ahead: FIRS is due to come into effect in the summer of 2025, after which point relevant subjects will be legally required to register with the Home Office. It is likely that early compliance will also be encouraged before it is fully required.

  • Less than a week ago, Brigadier General Ali Fazli of the IRGC threatened a third strike against Israel, similar to those which were conducted in April and October 2024. Fazli asserted that Operation True Promise III will be carried out “on schedule” without specifying when that may be, and previous similar threats have been fully acted on.

March 3, 2025

Israel accepts, Hamas rejects US proposal to extend the ceasefire

Israelis attend a rally calling for the release of Israelis held hostage by Hamas terrorists in Gaza, at "Hostage Square" in Tel Aviv, March 1, 2025.
Israelis attend a rally calling for the release of Israelis held hostage by Hamas terrorists in Gaza, at "Hostage Square" in Tel Aviv, March 1, 2025. Photo by Avshalom Sassoni/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** מלחמה חטופים משפחות תל אביב חרבות עצרת ברזל מלחמה

What’s happened: Over the weekend US envoy Witkoff proposed to extend the ceasefire for the next 50 days to include Ramadan and Passover. 

  • Witkoff proposed an extension of the first stage that would see half of the living and dead hostages released on the first day, with the rest released at the end if an agreement about a permanent ceasefire were to be reached. 
  • Hamas is opposed to the proposal, whilst Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) said that if Hamas were to change its mind, Israel would immediately commence negotiations about all the details. 
  • According to the PMO, Witkoff put forward his proposal after he received the impression that it would be impossible at the current stage to bridge the gaps between the sides to end the war, and that more time would be needed to discuss a permanent ceasefire. 
  • The PMO statement added, “While Hamas has repeatedly violated the agreement, Israel has not been found in violation. According to the agreement, Israel could return to fighting after the 42nd day if it gains the impression that the negotiations have been ineffective. This article is supported in a side letter by the previous US administration and has also received the support of the Trump administration.”
  • Following Hamas’ rejection of the US offer, Israel announced that it would halt the entry of goods and supplies into Gaza. 
  • A stabbing attack took place in Haifa this morning. Initial reports that a 70 year old man was murdered and at least four others hurt, three of them in serious condition. The terrorist was shot and killed at the scene.
  • On Sunday, the funeral for Shlomo Mantzur, who was murdered and kidnapped on October 7th, was held on Kibbutz Kissufim. Speaking at the funeral, President Herzog asked for forgiveness. “Forgiveness for our failure to protect you in the very place that was meant to be your fortress. Forgiveness from you, from your family, from the members of Kissufim, and from all the residents of the western Negev—for not saving you on that bitter, terrible day.”
  • On Saturday, Hamas released their latest propaganda video documenting the moment when the brothers Iair and Eitan Horn said goodbye to one another shortly before Iair’s release from captivity.
  • Once more thousands of people attended the rally in Hostages’ Square in Tel Aviv on Saturday night. 
  • On Sunday night thousands demonstrated outside the Prime Minister Netanyahu’s private residence on Azza Street in Jerusalem, demanding that he not derail the hostage deal. 

Context: With the formal end of the first stage of the ceasefire agreement, Israel is preparing to ratchet up the pressure on Hamas to secure the release of the remaining hostages.

  • In the Israeli assessment, of the 59 remaining captives – now held for 514 days – 24 are alive, whilst 35 have been killed by Hamas. 
  • The first step of the pressure campaign was to stop the transfer of aid that had formed part of Israel’s commitment in the first stage of the deal. 
  • Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs noted, “The goods transferred to Gaza have become the number one source of income for Hamas. The goods have been exploited by Hamas for the reconstruction of its terror infrastructure, Hamas is now running a billion-dollar aid industry that is being used for terrorist purposes.”
  • During the 42 day ceasefire more than 25,200 trucks of goods entered Gaza, which is estimated to be enough to sustain the entire population for four months.
  • Israel is hoping the threat of the resumption of fighting will motivate Hamas to agree to an extension of a deal that will see more of their prisoners released in return for the remaining hostages.  As part of the threat, the military has warned that a return to fighting will be more aggressive and could include a resumption of targeting killings as well as threatening to cut off supplies of water and electricity.
  • To compound the pressure on Hamas, Israel is hoping that the US will increase the diplomatic pressure on Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt to release all of the hostages. 
  • Israel has also announced that it will not begin withdrawing troops from the Philadelphi Corridor, which as part of the first stage, it was due to begin on Day 42, and complete the process on Day 50. 
  • At this point Prime Minister Netanyahu is looking to explore all possibilities to extend the deal in order to free more hostages before returning to war, even at the heavy price of continuing to release Palestinian prisoners. However he is also facing pressure from his right wing coalition partners in the Religious Zionist party to renew the fighting.       
  • There remains some hope that the sides can reach an understanding.  Hamas spokesperson Hazem Qassem said they rejected a continuation of the first stage in the “Israeli format,” which does not lead to negotiations on the second stage of the ceasefire agreement, but it would not rule out a different proposal. 
  • Arab media has reported an Egyptian plan to extend the first stage by two weeks, during which negotiations on the second stage are to begin and Hamas will commit to releasing two groups of two living hostages and four murdered hostages each.
  • Meanwhile the US State Department announced the expedited delivery of $4 billion in military aid to Israel.
  • Ramadan began this weekend and lasts until March 29th. Passover ends on April 19th.

Looking ahead: Three of the recently freed hostages, Eli Sharabi, Omer Shem Tov, and Keith Siegel, will travel to Washington later today and meet President Trump tomorrow in order to underscore the importance of releasing all the remaining hostages.      

  • At the Arab League summit in Cairo tomorrow, Egypt is expected to present its own plan for rebuilding the Gaza Strip without displacing the residents.  
  • Witkoff is due to return to the region once more this week in an effort to reach an agreement. Israel is expected to give the diplomatic efforts one week before a decision is made to resume the fighting.

February 7, 2025

Trump announces sanctions on the ICC

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Minister of Defense Yoav Galant, and head of the National Unity party Benny Gantz (not seen) hold a joint press conference at the Ministry of Defense, in Tel Aviv. October 28, 2023. Photo by Dana Kopel/POOL***POOL PICTURE, EDITORIAL USE ONLY/NO SALES, PLEASE CREDIT THE PHOTOGRAPHER AS WRITTEN - DANA KOPEL/POOL*** *** Local Caption *** מלחמה מסיבת עיתונאים קירייה קריה קרייה ביבי נתניהו גלנט מלחמה קסינט

What’s happened: Yesterday, President Trump signed an executive order imposing sanctions on the International Criminal Court and its leaders as Israel withdrew from the United Nations Human Rights Council.

  • The executive order states that President Trump found that the “International Criminal Court (ICC), as established by the Rome Statute, has engaged in illegitimate and baseless actions targeting America and our close ally Israel” while asserting that it had “without a legitimate basis, asserted jurisdiction over and opened preliminary investigations concerning personnel of the United States and certain of its allies, including Israel, and has further abused its power by issuing baseless arrest warrants targeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Former Minister of Defence Yoav Gallant.”
  • The White House has also condemned the ICC for drawing a false equivalence between Israel and Hamas for issuing arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant at the same time as the terrorist group’s leaders (who were already dead). It warned that a dangerous precedent had been set which could endanger Americans by exposing them to “harassment, abuse and possible arrest.”
  • The ICC’s insistence on undertaking investigations against Israel and the US, despite lacking jurisdiction over those countries as they never joined the Rome Statute, are democracies, and strictly adhere to the laws of war is the main reason for these sanctions being applied.
  • President Trump’s executive order mentions ‘lack of jurisdiction’ no fewer than six times.  
  • These sanctions have the effect of freezing ICC officials’ assets and preventing them from visiting the US. Given how widely expected it was, the ICC has now begun paying staff salaries three months in advance.
  • Israel responded warmly, with Foreign Minister Saar tweeting that he strongly commended the sanctions. Saar wrote that the “ICC aggressively pursues the elected leaders of Israel, the only democracy in the Middle East”, its actions “are immoral and have no legal basis”, and court undermines rather than promotes international law.
  • The ICC has condemned the sanctions, accusing the US of seeking to harm its “independent and impartial judicial work” while standing by its personnel and pledging “to continue providing justice and hope to millions of innocent victims of atrocities across the world, in all Situations before it.”
  • Concurrently, Israel joined the US in withdrawing from the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC), confirming that it “will not participate” in its activities” after Foreign Minister Saar accused it of antisemitism. Saar also said that the decision “was reached in light of the ongoing and unrelenting institutional bias against Israel in the Human Rights Council, which has been persistent since its inception in 2006”.

Context: Israel and the US have long had an antagonistic relationship with the ICC, and President Trump’s announcement is neither surprising nor unprecedented.

  • The ICC was established in 2002 following the entry into force of the Rome Statute (1998). It has the mandate to prosecute individuals (rather than groups or States) responsible for the crimes of genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and also the crime of aggression (a crime which came into force in 2017).
  • The ICC’s decision against Netanyahu and Gallant in November 2024 marked the first time that arrest warrants were issued for the elected leaders of a democratic state. It meant that Netanyahu and Gallant are functionally unable to travel to over 120 countries which are signatories of the Rome Statute, including the UK, without fear of arrest by local authorities.
  • The Rome Statute’s preamble states that the ICC “shall be complementary to national criminal jurisdictions”, and under the principle of complementarity only has distinction if a state is “unwilling or unable to genuinely carry out the investigation or prosecution.” Israel argues that its independent court system means this is not the case. 
  • The US signed the Rome Statute under President Clinton’s administration, but never submitted the treaty to the Senate for ratification. In 2002 President Bush effectively reversed this decision by advising the United Nations he no longer intended to do so and had no obligations towards it.
  • In March 2020, the ICC announced that prosecutors had been given the green light to investigate alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Afghanistan linked to Afghan, Taliban and US troops (notwithstanding that the US is not a state party). Following this decision, President Trump also issued an executive order sanctioning the ICC and its officials.
  • In March 2021, the court announced it would be investigating Israeli conduct in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip since 2014 (suggesting in-build prejudice, the date of the investigation was chosen to explicitly exclude the Hamas kidnapping and murder of three teenagers but notably didinclude the ensuing war between Israel and the group in Gaza). 
  • In a 2-1 ruling, a Pre-Trial Chamber at the ICC ruled on Friday 5th February 2021 that the court has territorial jurisdiction in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza. Two of the judges, Marc Perrin de Brichambaut of France and Reine Adélaïde Sophie Alapini-Gansou of Benin, accepted the premise that since the Palestinian Authority (PA) joined the Rome Statute, it should be treated as a state. The dissenting judge, Péter Kovács, rejected the argument that the PA is a state and that it therefore does not constitute the required “state inside whose territory the said actions took place.” Kovács wrote that he “felt neither the Majority’s approach nor its reasoning appropriate in answering the question before the Chamber” adding that in his opinion “they have no legal basis in the Rome Statute, and even less so, in public international law.”
  • As part of a policy of ‘internationalisation,’ the PA has long sought to involve the ICC in its dispute with Israel. As the weaker party in the conflict, the PA has attempted to change the “balance of power” by moving the playing field from bilateral negotiations mediated by the US into the multilateral legal realm where it feels it has a greater advantage.
  • Israel had the status of an observer on the Human Rights Council. It previously withdrew from the Council in 2012 and returned in 2015. 

Looking ahead: These sanctions are unlikely to immediately prevent or deter the ICC from continuing its investigations into Israel. However, it has been warned by former employees that they may have a significant impact on the court’s ability to operate effectively

February 6, 2025

Responses to Trump’s plan for Gaza

What happened: Leaders from around the world responded to President Trump’s proposal to evacuate Gaza and redevelop it. 

  • Middle Eastern states closely allied with the US were quick to distance themselves from Trump’s ideas. 
  • Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Ministry did not even wait until morning to reiterate the Kingdom’s “unwavering” stance on Palestinian statehood. 
  • Turkey’s foreign minister said it was “wrong to even discuss” moving Palestinians out of Gaza. 
  • Egypt’s foreign minister said that Egypt was looking at plans to clear debris and begin reconstruction in Gaza “without the Palestinians leaving.”
  • In response to a question at PMQs, Prime Minister Starmer said: “they [Palestinians in Gaza] must be allowed home. They must be allowed to rebuild, and we should be with them in that rebuild on the way to a two-state solution”
  • In Israel, reactions were mixed but cautious. Voices allied to Netanyahu were quick to praise Trump for his support for Israel while mostly not addressing the headline generating details of his comments at the White House. 
  • Whilst member of the government gave backing to the plan, members of the opposition were more circumspect. Leader of the Opposition Lapid said that “one needs to see details before commenting on plans.” 
  • Leader of the Democrats party, Yair Golan, told Army Radio, “In tandem with encouraging emigration – which I don’t know if that is going to happen at all – we have to build a regional alliance here because Israel has successfully weakened the Iranian axis, and paid a very high price for that. And if in the future 100,000, 200,000, 300,000, 500,000 Palestinians emigrate from the Gaza Strip to anywhere in the world, excellent.”
  • Golan also called on Israel to work with the US and the moderate Arab states to construct a realistic plan for the reconstruction of Gaza and an alternative to Hamas rule, rather than focus on “fantasies.” He reiterated that Israel’s first priority right now was to free the remaining hostages.
  • Meanwhile Prime Minister Netanyahu continued his US trip, meeting with the Secretary of Defence and the Vice President. He also gave an interview to Fox News where he praised Trump, but refrained from referencing any specific details of Trump’s proposal. His only reference to evacuation of civilians referred to allowing those who want to leave to leave: “The actual idea of allowing first Gazans who want to leave, to leave, what’s wrong with that?”
  • US officials began downplaying some aspects of Trump’s proposal. Secretary of State Rubio declared that the US is only interested in rebuilding Gaza, not in taking possession of the territory. 
  • Trump’s special envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff reportedly told US senators that Trump “doesn’t want to put any US troops on the ground.”

Context: The response of Israeli politicians from across the political spectrum should primarily be seen through the prism of wanting to maintain close relations with the Trump administration.    

  • At this early juncture in the presidency, the Israelis are looking for US leadership to counter the Iranian threat, expand the circle of peace with Arab and Muslim countries, and secure the release of all the hostages.      
  • Less noted than Trump’s Gaza comments were his comments on West Bank settlements, though these have fateful implications on Israel’s coalition at precisely the delicate moment when the second stage of the ceasefire is due to get underway. Netanyahu’s far-right partners have threatened to bolt from the coalition if he moves ahead from the first to the second stage. Trump did not make any pronouncement on annexation at the press conference, nor did Netanyahu, but Trump promised to make some sort of statement in another four weeks. Presumably this would be geared to keeping the far-right inside the government for just long enough for the second stage negotiations to be completed and for the full hostage deal to be agreed to. At a minimum, it indicates that the American administration is invested in seeing the ceasefire deal through to the end and is keen to remove domestic political pressures from the parties that might interfere.
  • Although US allied Arab states were vocal and harsh in their condemnation of Trump’s proposal, Qatar was notably restrained and moderate in its reaction. This is another indication of a party that wants to see the ceasefire deal move to the next stage and is wary of anything that could serves as an excuse to blow it up prematurely.
  • Leading Israeli commentators and security experts were markedly sceptical of Trump’s plan. In Yediot Ahronot, Avi Issacharoff wrote, “Admittedly, certainly after October 7th, many Israelis would like to see Gaza flattened, the Palestinians who live there vanish, and the Gaza Strip, which has been enemy territory for decades, turned into a thriving American Riviera.  That would be a dream come true. But there is just one problem: It isn’t realistic, doable or feasible.” 
  • He concluded, “As long as there is no governmental alternative to Hamas, military action, no matter how aggressive, will probably lead to more devastation and death in the Gaza Strip, but not Hamas’s capitulation. Nor will it topple it from power. It will lead to more dead Israeli soldiers who will continue to fight the war with no realistic horizon. Flattening Gaza and the departure of its residents is not a realistic goal. It is a cute gimmick from an American president who wants to prove how different he is from his predecessor and from everyone else, but it is a gimmick that is not doable.”
  • In Maariv Ben Caspit speculated on three theories behind Trump’s announcement.
    • Another example of a Trump fantasy that will never come to fruition.
    • Part of a negotiating tactic, to plant an idea only to retract it and give the Saudis a win (for ‘preventing’ it). This would be similar to the UAE ‘preventing’ annexation of the West Bank in return for the Abraham Accords.    
    • This move was coordinated with Netanyahu in order to keep the right-wing partners on board for the second phase of the hostage deal. 

Looking ahead: Israel expects Qatar to tomorrow announce the names of the next three hostages to be released on Saturday.     

  • Also this weekend an Israeli delegation will leave for Doha for further talks about the hostage release agreement. 
  • In response to Trump, Defence Minister Katz has instructed the IDF to draft a plan to facilitate the departure of any resident of Gaza who wish to leave the Strip.

January 21, 2025

Israeli leaders congratulate President Trump

Pepole walk next to a sign congratulating U.S. President Donald Trump for his victory in the US presidential election in central Jerusalem, January 20, 2025. Photo by Yonatan Sindel/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** בחירות תמיכה דונלד טראמפ בחירות ארצות הברית שלט ניצחון

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Herzog sent their congratulations to President Trump following his inauguration.

  • Netanyahu noted, “Your first term as President was filled with groundbreaking moments in the history of the great alliance between our two countries. You withdrew from the dangerous Iran nuclear deal, you recognised Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, you moved the American embassy to Jerusalem and you recognised Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights. You brokered the historic Abraham Accords in which Israel made peace with four Arab countries.”
  • Looking ahead, Netanyahu said, “I’m confident that we will complete the defeat of Iran’s terror axis and usher in a new era of peace and prosperity for our region.” Adding, “I look forward to working with you to return the remaining hostages, to destroy Hamas’ military capabilities and end its political rule in Gaza, and to ensure that Gaza never again poses a threat to Israel.”
  • President Herzog called Trump “a true friend of Israel” and thanked him for his “unwavering commitment to Israel’s security and to building a better future for our region.”  
  • Trump invited two freed hostages to his inaugural ceremony. Noa Argamani, who was freed in an IDF operation, and Shoshan Haran who was released during November 2023 deal. They were also joined by families of current hostages, wearing yellow scarves symbolising the ongoing campaign for their release.
  • Trump also mentioned the hostages in his inaugural address noting, “I’m pleased to say that as of yesterday, one day before I assumed office, the hostages in the Middle East are coming back home to their families.”  
  • Following the ceremony, Trump was asked about Israel-Hamas ceasefire prospects, Trump said “he was not sure”, adding, “This isn’t our war – it’s their war…Gaza needs to be rebuilt differently. It’s remarkable, really, a phenomenal location on the coastline with spectacular weather. The potential for beautiful development is there.” 
  • He was asked if he’ll help rebuild Gaza, to which the president responded, “I might.”
  • Later, Trump revoked multiple orders from the Biden administration:
    • Cancelling sanctions imposed on dozens of Israeli settlers over the past year who were accused of disturbing public order or engaging in violence against Palestinians. This action restores full banking privileges to the account holders. The decision was warmly welcomed by right-wing Israeli politicians. Finance Minister Smotrich noted, “These sanctions were a serious act of gross foreign intervention in Israel’s internal affairs.” 
    • Reversing a Biden decision that had removed sanctions imposed against the International Criminal Court in Trump’s first term.
    • Signing an executive order temporarily suspending all US foreign assistance programmes, thought to include UN agencies like UNRWA.
  • When Trump was asked when he thinks a normalisation deal might be signed between Israel and Saudi Arabia, he responded, “soon.”

Context: The return of Trump to the White House is being greeted with great optimism in Israel. 

  • Although the parameters of the hostage deal were crafted by the Biden administration, it is widely acknowledged that it was the threats from Trump (to both Israel and the Palestinians) that brought the deal to fruition. 
  • Israel has a range of substantive issues that it seeks to receive backing and support from the Trump administration. These include the Iranian nuclear programme and normalisation with Saudi Arabia.   
  • There is also hope that Trump will give Israel full backing – including the supply of powerful munitions – that it is alleged Biden held back from delivering. 
  • However, the first test is likely to come next Monday when the 60 day ceasefire in Lebanon expires by which time the IDF is expected to completely withdraw from southern Lebanon. Israeli officials have expressed concern that the Lebanese Armed Forces have not deployed sufficiently or as efficiently as expected and so the IDF may need to remain in certain strategic locations. 
  • The second test will be the negotiations over the second stage of the hostage deal. Netanyahu has said that he received assurances from Trump that the president would support an Israeli resumption of the war if negotiations over the second stage were to fail, but that cannot be guaranteed. 
  • The decision to revoke the sanctions against Israeli settlers come in the context of growing tension in the West Bank.
  • A violent incident took place yesterday in the Palestinian village Funduk, after dozens of masked settlers entered the village and set fire to three vehicles and a number of shops. Clashes erupted between the rioters and the Israeli security forces. Following a chase, a police officer and soldier shot and seriously wounding two of the rioters. 
  • The IDF see this latest example of a small minority of radical settlers evoking violence as a serious incident which might provoke further Palestinian attacks. It also distracts security forces away from counterterrorism operations. 
  • The incident adds to growing concern that Hamas is gaining popularity as a result of released prisoners returning to the West Bank.       
  • The IDF was disturbed by the celebrations on Sunday when the first tranche of prisoners were released and were greeted by Hamas flags and flags of other terror organisations.

Looking ahead: Israel is making preparations for the release of the second group of four hostages who are due to be released on Saturday. Hamas is supposed to submit the names of the four hostages on Friday,. Israel is anticipating one female civilian plus three female IDF spotters who were kidnapped from the Nahal Oz outpost on October 7th.

  • Similar to the first release, the four are expected to be handed over by Hamas in the late afternoon to Red Cross representatives, who will then deliver them to IDF troops inside the Gaza Strip. The freed hostages will then be transported into Israeli territory to meet their families, after which they will be hospitalised. 
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu is expected to form a negotiating team to begin work on the second stage of the hostage deal scheduled to begin on February 4th.

January 8, 2025

International efforts to support hostage deal

Photo credit: Koby Gideon (GPO)

What’s happened: Yesterday President Herzog hosted an international task force focused on the issue of the hostages.

  • The task force included representatives from the US, UK, Canada, Germany and Austria, and was convened by Israel’s Coordinator for the Hostages and the Missing Brig. Gen. (Res.) Gal Hirsch.
  • At the start of the meeting, President Herzog said,: “There is a major scar on our nation. There is a major scar on the face of the earth: the issue of the hostages.” He called, “on all parties to the negotiations in Qatar to move forward as much as possible and end this huge tragedy.”
  • He added, “This is something that should not be acceptable anywhere in the world, in modern day affairs, in human lives, in the international arena. The fact that you’re here on behalf of such important nations is another example of how this issue is on the top of the agenda. It is the key to the door to moving forward for a better future.”
  • Foreign Minister Saar met yesterday in Abu Dhabi with UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed. The two men discussed regional developments and the bilateral relations between the countries.
  • In the US, President-elect Trump held a press conference alongside his new envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff.  
  • Relating to the talks in Qatar, Witkoff struck an optimistic note. “I think that we’ve had some really great progress, and I’m really hopeful that by the inaugural, we’ll have some good things to announce on behalf of the president.” 

Context: Efforts continue in Qatar to reach a deal, however it remains unclear if the gaps can be breached.

  • Kan News revealed an internal Israel government document that states that the goal of the agreement is the release of all the Israeli hostages, civilians and soldiers, living and dead, in exchange for an agreed upon number of Palestinian prisoners in Israel, the restoration of a sustainable quiet that will bring about a permanent ceasefire and the Gaza Strip’s reconstruction. 
  • According to a Reuters report the UAE have been holding behind the scenes talks with Israel and the US to explore the formation of a provisional administration for post-war Gaza.  According to that report, the parties discussed “the possibility of the UAE and the US, along with other nations, temporarily overseeing the governance, security and reconstruction of Gaza after the Israeli military withdraws and until a Palestinian administration is able to take over.”
  • An Emirati official is quoted as saying, “The UAE will not participate in any plan that fails to include significant reform of the Palestinian Authority, its empowerment, and the establishment of a credible roadmap toward a Palestinian state.” 
  • In parallel to the diplomatic efforts the fighting in Gaza continues, with IDF forces operating in the north, centre and south of the Strip. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Halevi visited troops in Jabalya saying, “I am looking at the situation that Hamas is in. They see, every single day, what you are doing to them, and they understand that this is becoming unbearable. And I’m telling you, we won’t stop. We will bring them to the point where they understand that they must return all the hostages.” 
  • However inside Israel there is also criticism for the ongoing war, Channel 13 News quoted a high ranking IDF officer saying, “The ground operation has run its course. In the absence of a deal we’re going to return to the same places.” 
  • The cost in human lives continues to rise, three more IDF soldiers all in their 20s have been killed in Gaza in the last two days. 
  • Last night the Israeli Air Force carried out another air strike in Khan Yunis targeting terrorists who took part in the October 7th massacre. Arab media reported that 18 people were killed. The IDF Spokesperson’s Office said that several steps were taken before the strike to minimise the risk of civilian casualties.
  • Meanwhile, senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan held a press conference in Algeria. Referring to Trump’s threats, he said, “You don’t threaten hell to the Palestinians, they are already in hell….I don’t believe Blinken’s statements that an agreement can be reached within two weeks.” 
  • While Trump and his team are not formally part of the ongoing negotiations, it is understood that they have been cooperating with the outgoing Biden administration, and Witkoff has travelled to the region several times since his appointment in November.
  • Amid the fighting and the talk, Israel continues to facilitate the entry of . In the past week, COGAT oversaw over 1,000 trucks entering the Strip. This included over 900 tonnes of equipment for winter – blankets, tarps, coats, and winter clothing. 600 tonnes of hygiene products, 370 tonnes of medical equipment including medication, blood units, and plasma. In addition, medical equipment and medical supplies were coordinated to hospitals in northern Gaza. COGAT also notes, “Hundreds of trucks are currently waiting for collection and distribution on the Gazan side of Kerem Shalom.”
  • The UAE also continues to play an important humanitarian role. This week Israel facilitated 127 patients to leave Gaza, primarily children, along with their escorts, to receive medical treatment in the UAE.

Looking ahead: The international task force is expected to meet with representatives of the hostages family forum later today.  

  • US envoy Witkoff is expected to join the negotiations in Qatar later this week.
  • Trump once again warned “all hell will break loose” in the region if an agreement between Israel and Hamas is not reached by his inauguration on January 20th

December 18, 2024

Netanyahu visits Syrian Hermon

Photo credit: Ma'yan Toaf (GPO).

18/12/24

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu has visited the Syrian side of Mount Hermon with the Defence Minister, IDF Chief of Staff and other senior defence officials. 

  • Standing on the mountain, Netanyahu reiterated the importance of staying there “until another arrangement can be found that guarantees Israel’s security,” while invoking his last visit there 53 years earlier as a young special-forces officer.
  • Defence Minister Katz said that Israel “will remain here for as long as it is needed…Our presence here at the peak of the Hermon strengthens security and adds a dimension of both observation and deterrence to Hezbollah’s strongholds in the Beqaa Valley in Lebanon and deterrence against the rebels in Damascus, who pretend to present a moderate image, but belong to the most extreme Islamic sects.”
  • In an interview with The Times published on Monday, Ahmed al-Sharaa (better known as Abu Muhammad al-Julani) stressed his commitment to the 1974 agreement with Israel that established a demilitarised zone on Syrian territory after the Yom Kippur War, stated that he did not want a conflict with Israel or anyone else, and would not allow to be used as a “launchpad for attacks.”
  • However, he also called for Israel to withdraw from the buffer zone and criticised its recent airstrikes on former Syrian regime military hardware, suggesting that while it previously had a right to target Iranian backed militias, it no longer had any legitimacy to operate within .
  • Despite appearing not to directly threaten Israel at this point, the rebels remain a significant cause of concern in Jerusalem given their historic extremism and links to Al Qaeda.

Context: Given the speed of the rebel takeover, it remains unclear how ‘s future may evolve and how this will impact on Israel. 

  • The IDF entered the high ground in the 155-square-mile buffer zone in Syria just over a week ago, after the Assad regime collapsed to ensure rebels did not take over the area that offers a commanding view of strategically sensitive territory and is in close proximity to Israeli communities.
  • That buffer zone was created in the aftermath of the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the 1974 disengagement agreement between Israel and Syria. Since then, it has been Israel’s quietest border.
  • While it is almost certainly too early for the post-Assad Syria to formulate a cogent policy towards Israel, early indications suggest a pragmatic and non-confrontational approach is being taken.
  • Israel’s response to developments in Syria is indicative of a position that views Islamists (both Sunni and Shia) on Israel’s borders as a potential serious security threat.
  • While the mainstream view in Israel is that the collapse of the Assad regime was precipitated by Israel’s defeat of Hezbollah and the weakening of Iran’s Axis of Resistance, it nevertheless empowered Islamist Turkey which will likely have increased influence in the post-Assad Syria. 
  • Last month Shin Bet Chief, Ronen Bar visited Turkey, Israeli media reports have suggested the visit  was prompted by concerns about Turkish weaponry being smuggled into the West Bank, and a significant network of pro-Hamas charities freely able to fundraise for the terrorist group.
  • Israel is also aware of fears among Syria’s Kurdish and Druze minority populations for their own future in a post-Assad Syria, and is closely monitoring the situation. Shortly before taking office, Israel’s new Foreign Minister, Gideon Saar, had indicated that alliances with Middle Eastern minorities including Druze and Kurds should be formed, and that these efforts should be pursued alongside a normalisation deal with Saudi Arabia.
  • One Likud MK has proposed an international conference “to rearrange the international borders in Syria with its neighbours” and requested that Prime Minister Netanyahu considers dividing the country into a number of cantons. Such a proposal does not represent Israeli government policy.
  • Last week, Israel estimated that they had destroyed 80 per cent of the Syrian military in the largest operation the IDF had even launched. Most of what remains is considered obsolete and not worth wasting munitions in destroying. 

Looking ahead: Israel will continue to closely monitor the developing situation in Syria, primarily with a view towards guaranteeing its own security, preventing a build-up of adjacent hostile forces, and ensuring the protection of communities in the Golan Heights and adjoining Galilee.

December 17, 2024

Efforts intensify to reach hostage deal

Relatives of Israelis held hostage by Hamas terrorists in Gaza and supporters protest for their release, outside the Likud headquarters in Tel Aviv, December 17, 2024. Photo by Tomer Neuberg/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** תל אביב מצודת זאב חטופים ליכוד חרבות ברזל נשים שחקנים פעילים הפגנה שחרור חטופים עזה חטופות

17/12/24

What’s happening: An Israeli delegation left last night for Qatar suggesting progress has been made in the hostage deal negotiations. 

  • Speaking to the Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee in the Knesset yesterday Defence Minister Katz reportedly said, “Israel is closer than ever to another hostage deal.”
  • Minister Katz is also quoted as saying, “The Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors won’t constitute an obstacle. Hamas is flexible on this issue…They understand that we aren’t going to end the war.”
  • Katz anticipates a large majority in the cabinet and the security cabinet will vote in favour of a proposed deal, adding, “I have defined and instructed the security establishment to prioritise the release of the hostages.” 
  • Foreign Minister Saar also expressed his support for the current proposal saying, “I’m more optimistic than a month ago, but we have to remember that every sentence uttered affects the families.”
  • Similarly the heads of Mossad and Shin Bet have reportedly told the security cabinet that Hamas is showing new willingness to reach a deal that didn’t exist before. 
  • Adam Boehler, President-elect Trump’s envoy for hostage affairs, met yesterday with Prime Minister and a range of other senior officials in the Knesset.
  • Speaking at the White House’s Chanukah party President Biden said, “This is the second Chanukah since the horrors of October 7th. The trauma of that day and its aftermath is still raw and ongoing. I’ve gotten over 100 hostages out. I will not stop until I get every single one of them home.”  
  • Three rockets were fired out of the central Gaza Strip at Israel over the weekend. One landed in an open area, the others were intercepted. The launchers were positioned just a few dozen meters from warehouses that are used by international aid workers.

Contours of the deal: The current talks are understandably being conducted secretly, so as not to jeopardise their success. However Arab media have reported updated details of a potential deal:  

  • It will begin with a declared ceasefire ranging from six to eight weeks, which might start with an initial two-week pause in fighting that would be renewed for a month.
  • In this period Hamas and Palestinian factions would release at least 20 Israeli hostages; women, children and the over 50’s plus possibly four or five with dual US citizenship.
  • In exchange, Israel would release a group of Palestinian prisoners, including at least 100 convicted terrorists serving long sentences.
  • Israel would gradually allow an increase in the number of trucks entering the Gaza Strip to at least 400, including fuel for hospitals, bakeries, and water pumping stations.
  • In the second stage, negotiations would begin regarding the remaining male captives in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners, and then negotiations would move to the exchange of corpses.
  • Israeli troops are supposed to withdraw gradually from the population centres and cities along with the release of the first group of hostages. 
  • Israel will maintain a temporary presence on the Philadelphi Corridor (the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt) and the Netzarim Corridor (which partitions the Gaza Strip), and the border crossings, especially in the northern Gaza Strip. 

Outstanding issues: There are numerous details still to be negotiated.

  • The mechanism and details of any IDF redeployment and the freedom of action Israel will have following it. Despite Katz’ optimistic comments regarding the status of the Philadelphi and Netzarim Corridors, their status remains to be determined.
  • Israel is still seeking clarification on the precise identities and number of hostages that remain alive and trying to ensure as many as possible are included in the first release stage.
  • The ratio of hostage to prisoners to be released remains undetermined as well as the identities of the Palestinian prisoners, where they will be returned to (Gaza, West Bank or Turkey/Arab states), and what sort of veto Israel will have on the names of heavy weight prisoners demanded by Hamas.
  • It is important for Hamas that displaced Gazans are able to return to northern Gaza. The sides will need to agree on this issue as well a screening mechanism for Gazan civilians who wish to return. 
  • Questions also remain about the future of Hamas leaders and fighters that remain in Gaza.

Context: The main drivers for the deal appear to be the Israeli military success’s against the Iranian camp in Lebanon and and President-elect Trump’s threat. Both have further isolated Hamas to now seek a deal.       

  • Both the Biden and Trump teams are motivated to see a deal completed soon. Biden wants a deal for closure of the issue and as part of his legacy. Trump is keen to start his term with a clean slate.
  • On the Israeli side there is still heavy scepticism that Hamas are truly prepared to do a deal. Largely due to the ideological extremism, but also that the hostages remain their greatest asset that they are reluctant to give up. 
  • The most controversial aspect will be the release of heavyweight terrorists in return for the hostages. There is lingering concern that just as Sinwar was released in the Shalit deal Israel could be releasing unrepentant murderers who are motivated to return to terrorism. This is particularly acute after all the effort of the war to destroy Hamas’s terror capacity.
  • Despite political threats from hard right coalition partners, Ben Gvir and Smotrich who as a result may vote against the deal, it is thought Netanyahu will still have a majority in the cabinet and the security cabinet to secure a deal.
  • There is also heightened concern from some of the hostage families that a partial deal will mean a death sentence for those not released.  A statement issued by the hostages’ families in Tel Aviv demanded that the government refuse a “partial deal.” 
  • In London the Henry Jackson Society released a new report by Andrew Fox revealing that the number of civilians killed in Gaza has been inflated. According to the report, “The ministry of health, operating under Hamas, has systematically inflated the death toll by failing to distinguish between civilian and combatant deaths, over-reporting fatalities among women and children and even including individuals who died before the conflict began….This has led to a narrative where the Israel Defence Forces are portrayed as disproportionately targeting civilians, while the actual numbers suggest a significant proportion of the dead are combatants.”
  • All of the rockets fired over the last few days have emanated from the camps in the central Gaza Strip, which is the only area in which the IDF has not yet operated on a full scale.
  • Trump’s envoy Boehler is considered to hold a belligerent stance on Hamas, a week ago he was quoted saying that anyone who holds hostages needs to think carefully about what might happen to him.
  • Boehler was Trump’s mediator in the talks that led to the Abraham Accords, and was appointed the president’s special envoy for American hostage affairs.

Looking ahead: US National Security Advisor Sullivan has suggested that a deal could be concluded by the end of December.

  • While Trump has reissued his warning to Hamas that there will be “all hell to pay” if it does not release the hostages by the time he takes office.

December 16, 2024

Israel clarifies position on Syria

16/12/24

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke to President-elect Trump on Sunday. Following the call he issued a statement noting, “We have no interest in a conflict with . We will determine Israeli policy regarding according to the reality on the ground.” 

  • IDF Chief of Staff Halevi struck a similar tone when he visited Northern Command saying, “We are here to defend along the border in the Golan Heights, northern Golan Heights, and Mount Hermon. There was a country here that was an enemy state, its army collapsed, and there is a threat that terrorist elements could reach here. We moved forward so that these terrorist elements will not establish themselves… right next to the border. We are not intervening in what is happening in . We have no intention of managing Syria. We are unequivocally intervening in what determines the security of Israeli citizens here, behind us in the communities of the Golan Heights, and we are doing that professionally and correctly, and we are doing it with determination.” 
  • The statement followed comments over the weekend by the Syrian rebel leader, Jolani, who recognised that Israel formerly had the excuse of Iran’s presence in Syria to attack it, but that reason was “now over,” adding: “After the Iranian’s departure, there isn’t any reason for any intervention in Syria. In Syria’s condition, we aren’t about to enter into any conflict, and we are in contact with the international community.” 
  • Jolani added, “There are a lot of things behind the scenes of the war that will be revealed in the future. What happened wasn’t a coincidence; rather, we had planned for that for years. We have a plan for dealing with all the crises in Syria. We are at the information-collecting stage, and we have plans and readiness for Syria’s construction and development.”
  • Meanwhile, over the weekend Israel continued to destroy what was left of advanced Syrian military hardware. Arab media reported a series of attacks against military targets, including military headquarters, radars, and weapons storage sites. 
  • Syrian media reported that the IDF attacked outside Tartus on the Mediterranean coast. The attack appears to have targeted arms storerooms, and produced a powerful explosion. 
  • According to the Russian news agency, Sputnik, the Israeli Air Force carried out 52 sorties on Saturday  night across Syria within the space of four hours. 

Context: The sudden fall of Assad’s regime has Syria has dramatically changed the strategic position between Israel and Iran, with significant repercussions felt across the region.

  • Last week, Israel estimated that they had destroyed 80 per cent of the Syrian military in the largest operation the IDF had even launched. Most of what remains is considered obsolete and not worth wasting munitions in destroying.     
  • With Hezbollah defeated, Assad toppled, the Iranian doctrine of surrounding Israel with a ring of fire has collapsed. 
  • The Iranians now face a choice if they wish to retain a belligerent and aggressive posture. They could choose to ramp up their efforts to obtain nuclear weapons. Or they could seek to reach an agreement with the US over limiting their enrichment or face further economic sanctions. 
  • Hezbollah leader Qassem also admitted over the weekend that they have now lost their supply line from Iran.
  • Following the success of the rebels in Syria there is concern that it could spread, both to Jordan and the West Bank.
  • Over the weekend head of the Shin Bet Bar and head of IDF Intelligence Maj. Gen. Binder visited Jordan and met with senior officials, presumably amid concerns that the unrest in Syria might produce similar developments in Jordan. 
  • Israel is concerned both for Jordan’s stability and the potential for Iran to increase efforts to smuggle weapons via Jordan into the West Bank.  
  • In parallel the Palestinian Authority (PA) Security Forces have stepped up operations against terror infrastructure in Jenin. This is understood at both curbing any moves that could challenge the PA and also position them as potential partners in governing Gaza after the war is over.     
  • Jolani’s comments (above) can be interpreted two ways.  They could be a warning to Israel that they will seek to open hostilities in the future or an informal understanding of non-belligerence.  
  • Israel reports suggest the latest call between Netanyahu and Trump was particularly  warm and friendly, as Netanyahu hopes they will be closely coordinated on the Iranian threat and a potential hostage deal.       
  • Netanyahu apparently appealed to Trump to increase the pressure so that more hostages will be included in the deal.
  • The call further highlighted the importance of coordination and continuity. Any potential agreement secured by the Biden team will need to be implemented by Trump’s.  
  • In line with the understandings reached with President Biden, the IDF continues its low intensity campaign to challenge Hezbollah violations in southern Lebanon.       

Looking ahead: The losses of Iranian axis has also isolated Hamas making them potentially more susceptible to agree a deal to release the hostages.   

  • While the details have not been revealed, there remains hope that an agreement including a temporary ceasefire can be reached in the weeks ahead.    

December 11, 2024

Israel claims 80% of Syrian military’s equipment destroyed

11/12/24

What’s happened: in the past 48 hours, Israeli strikes across have destroyed up to 80% of the country’s strategic military equipment in a bid to prevent it from falling into hostile hands.

  • In a statement yesterday, the IDF confirmed that it had conducted over 350 strikes in against what it is describing as “strategic targets” in Operation Bashan Arrow. 
  • These targets included two Syrian naval ports at Latakia and Al-Bayda, sea-to-sea missiles with ranges of 80-190km, anti-aircraft batteries, weapons production sites, Scud missiles, cruise missiles, surface-to-sea, surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missiles, UAVs, fighter jets, attack helicopters, radars, tanks, electronic warfare systems, intelligence bases and hangars. The Israel Navy also destroyed approximately 15 missile boats and approximately 20 coast guard vessels, minelayers and landing ships that were in Syrian possession.
  • The Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Centre in Damascus, which was considered a cover for the development and production of chemical weapons, missiles and rockets – and which more recently helped Hezbollah to improve the precision of its rockets – was also destroyed.
  • Speaking after the attacks, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that while Israel would seek to establish relations with the post-Assad regime and not interfere in its internal affairs, “we certainly do intend to do what is necessary to ensure our security” in a confirmation that it would not hesitate to defend itself.
  • The Prime Minister added “if this regime allows Iran to reestablish itself in Syria, or allows the transfer of Iranian weapons or any other weapons to Hezbollah, or attacks us, we will respond forcefully and we will exact a heavy price from it…What happened to the previous regime will also happen to this regime.”
  • While Bashan Arrow was being completed, the Israeli Army continued its takeover of the 1974 Syrian buffer zone and now controls the entirety of Mount Hermon.
  • The UN has criticised Israel’s actions in the buffer zone, and accused it of violating the 1974 Syria disengagement deal.
  • Syrian sources have alleged that Israeli forces are operating outside of the buffer zone and approaching Damascus, which the IDF has strenuously denied. Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, and the Arab League also criticised the Israeli move.
  • Following the collapse of the Assad regime, Mohammed al-Bashir who previously led Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) de facto rebel government in Idlib province, has been appointed as Syria’s caretaker Prime Minister until 1st March 2025. 
  • Speaking to Al Jazeera afterwards, al-Bashir confirmed that efforts were being made include previous government members in any transition arrangements “in order to facilitate all the necessary works for the next two months until we have a constitutional system to be able to serve the Syrian people.”
  • Prime Minister Starmer has confirmed that no decision has been made yet on whether or not HTS will be removed from the Home Office’s list of banned organisations, and that it was “far too early” to consider a policy change, despite one of his Cabinet members earlier telling the BBC that this was a possibility.
  • The UN and US are also both reportedly considering delisting HTS as a terrorist group on the condition that it renounces terror, takes meaningful steps towards forming an inclusive government, and protects minorities.

Context: The destruction of the Syrian army’s main capabilities is the largest military operation the IDF has ever undertaken, and one the IDF had not prepared in advance.

  • It was based on the logic that Syria possessed significant capabilities that could pose a threat were they to fall into irresponsible hands.
  • Destroying the Syrian army’s capabilities was not previously carried out during the civil war so as to not be seen as Israel declaring war on the Assad regime, as well as due to the fear upsetting the Russians. 
  • Before Assad’s fall, the Syrian military possessed 30 MiG 29 fighter jets, about 150 MiG 21, MiG 23 and Sukhoi 22 fighter jets, as well as 18 mid-range Sukhoi 24 bomber aircraft, half of which were thought to be still usable. The Syrian regime also possessed about 50 Mi-17 troop transportation aircraft, about 30 Mi-24 helicopter gunships and French-made Gazelle helicopters. 
  • Of bigger concern to Israel was Syria’s air defence systems. These included more than 100 SA-5 and S300 long range batteries, mobile BUK-M1/2 and Pantsir missiles and other models. In 2021, one of the SA-5F batteries successfully downed an IAF F-16. 
  • The collapse of the Assad regime is widely understood in Israel as a second order effect of the catastrophic weakening of Iran’s Axis of Resistance following Hezbollah’s recent defeat in southern Lebanon and Russia’s preoccupation with war in Ukraine.
  • Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria 2011-2015, before the Russian intervention – had acted as a regime survival guarantor. Yet following the recent war with Israel, Hezbollah was in no position to deploy to Syria and hold off the recent rebel offensive in any meaningful way.
  • Similarly, Russia also lacked the resources to significantly support Assad as it did from 2015 until its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
  • While Yahya Sinwar had hoped that last year’s 7th October attacks would catalyse a regional upheaval against Israel, the opposite has in fact proven true: Hamas has functionally been removed from governing the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah has been decimated with much of its leadership assassinated and weaponry destroyed; Iran’s client regime in Syria has been overthrown; and almost the entirety of Iran’s air defence systems has been neutralised.
  • The 235-square-kilometre demilitarised buffer zone was established as part of the 1974 Agreement on Disengagement between Israel and Syria. Since then it has been by UN peacekeepers, UNDOF. Israel argues that following the fall of the Assad regime, it considers the agreement void.

Hostage negotiations: The IDF and Shin Bet’s leadership have joined discussions in Cairo aimed at securing a ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza that would ultimately lead to the release of hostages captured on 7th October 2023.

  • Ronen Bar and Herzi Halevi met with senior Egyptian officials following an assessment that the chances of reaching an agreement with Hamas had increased.
  • Although Hamas has not given any publication indication as to its current views on whether or not it is open to a ceasefire and releasing hostages, Israeli officials believe this may be the case and there may be a chance to reach a deal in the month-long run up before President-elect Trump’s inauguration.

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