What’s happened: The International Court of Justice in the Hague issued an advisory opinion asserting that Israel is legally obligated to allow UN agencies to provide aid to Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem.

• The Court said that Israel “is under the obligation to agree to and facilitate relief schemes provided by the United Nations and its entities, including Unrwa.”
• The Israeli Ministry for Foreign Affairs called the decision “entirely predictable from the outset” and “yet another political attempt to impose political measures against Israel under the guise of ‘International Law.’”
• The Knesset yesterday voted on two preliminary readings of bills which would apply Israel “sovereignty” on part or all of the West Bank. The Government opposed both bills, but an unusual mixed-motive alliance of right-wing rebels from within the governing coalition and opposition MKs seeking to embarrass the Government saw both preliminary readings pass.
• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, due to arrive in Israel today, told reporters just before boarding his flight that any move on West Bank annexation would be “threatening for the peace deal.” Regarding yesterday’s Knesset vote, he said, “They’re a democracy, they’re going to have their votes, and people are going to take these positions. But at this time, it’s something that we … think might be counterproductive.”
• Rubio’s visit continues an uninterrupted chain of high-profile American officials in Israel coming to monitor and assist implementation of the ceasefire, which has now been in effect for two weeks. Yesterday, Vice President JD Vance arrived in Israel, joining Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

Context: The ICJ, also called the World Court, is a body of the United Nations tasked with setting disputes between states. It is the same court that will rule on South Africa’s case against Israel, which alleges that Israel is committing “genocide.” It is a separate court from the International Criminal Court (ICC), which has issued arrest warrants for Prime Minister Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant.

• Israel vehemently denies the “genocide” charge, pointing out that the numbers of deaths include over 20,000 Hamas combatants. In addition, Israel argues that the nature of the fight against Hamas – which began after the massacres on October 7 – which is embedded in a densely populated civilian population and uses hospitals, schools, and mosques – in addition to hundreds of kilometres of tunnels – is inherently complicated and difficult.
• The case regarding Israel’s obligations to facilitate aid was referred to the Court by a vote of the United Nations General Assembly in December 2024 at the instigation of the Norwegian delegation. This followed the passing of a new law in Israel in October 2024 which banned UNRWA in Israel limiting greatly Israel’s cooperation with it in Gaza and the West Bank.
• According to Israeli law, East Jerusalem is part of Israel and not part of the West Bank, so the law has already led to the closure of UNRWA facilities there.
• Israel has not objected to aid coming into Gaza, especially not during the ceasefire. It objects to the role of UNRWA, an organisation it charges with fueling the conflict rather than mitigating it.
• Besides the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, which Israel has been heavily involved with, Israel also facilitates aid coming in through the World Food Program, World Central Kitchen, and other humanitarian organisations. COGAT reports nearly 6,000 tons of aid entering Gaza since the ceasefire went into effect on October 10.
• The Court’s decision stated that Israel had not substantiated its charge that UNRWA violated its neutrality obligations. The rejection of the Israeli claim came in two parts.
  • First, the Court argued that neutrality applies to UNRWA’s obligations to the population it was serving and, implicitly, not to its stance on the conflict.
  • Second, the Court said that Israel had not provided sufficient evidence that a significant number of UNRWA employees were members of terrorist organisations.
• Israel’s Court submission documented widespread Hamas infiltration of UNRWA, including Hamas use of at least 32 of its facilities. It also provided evidence of UNRWA employees taking part in the October 7 massacre and alleged that some 1400 of UNRWA’s 13,000 Gaza employees were members of Hamas.
• The advisory opinion is non-binding, and Israel has made clear that it will not be changing its stance on UNRWA. A report on Israel’s Kan radio quotes an unnamed Israeli official saying that UNRWA “will not set foot in Gaza again.”
• The US State Department condemned “this so-called ‘court’” for issuing “a nakedly politicised non-binding ‘advisory opinion’ [that] unfairly bashes Israel and gives UNRWA a free pass for its deep entanglement with and material support for Hamas terrorism.”
• One of the Knesset bills that was passed yesterday was tabled by Avigdor Liberman, and would see the effective annexation of Maaleh Adumim, a West Bank city adjacent to Jerusalem which has been slated for annexation in every peace proposal since 2000. Thirty one members voted in favour, and nine voted against. The other bill, tabled by far-right MK Avi Maoz, would effectively annex the entire West Bank.
• Neither measure has a realistic path to passing into law. 25 members voted in favour and 24 against. The timing is not coincidental – opponents of the government are looking to embarrass it during the visits of senior US officials. The government has made assurances to both the US and some of the moderate Arab states backing the ceasefire that annexation is not presently on the agenda.  

Looking ahead: Conflicting media reports give various hints as to American plans for Gaza reconstruction.

• From the new Civil-Military Coordination Centre in Kiryat Gat, where a multinational team led by 200 American officers, with contributions from Britain, Denmark, Jordan, the UAE and others, is operating, there are reports of a technocratic government for Gaza being established, composed of Palestinian and international experts.
• Yediot Ahronot reports that Hamas will select some of its members, though Israel says it will not allow any Hamas involvement.
• A report in the Wall Street Journal suggests American officials are considering a de facto partition of Gaza, at least as a temporary measure, until Hamas is disarmed.
• According to this idea, investment and reconstruction would be focused on areas of the Strip that are free of Hamas control. For now, that would mean the 53% of the territory on the Israeli side of the so-called “yellow line.”

What’s happened: US Vice President JD Vance arrived in Israel yesterday. Echoing President Trump’s threat of a “fast, furious and brutal force” if Hamas does not abide by terms of the ceasefire. He said “If Hamas doesn’t cooperate, as the president of the United States has said, Hamas is going to be obliterated.”

• He is due to meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu today to discuss next steps in the ceasefire.
• According to Arab media reports, Hamas has indicated to the US administration that it would halt public executions of its rivals. Videos of Hamas firing squads reasserting control over Gaza had been circulating on social media, provoking outrage, but also seen as an indicator that Hamas remained firmly in control of whatever territory lay beyond the presence of the IDF. Currently, the IDF holds about 53% of the Strip’s territory.
• Hamas handed over two more bodies of Israeli hostages. They were identified by the Israeli Institute for Forensic Medicine as Tamir Adar and Arie Zalmanowicz, both of Kibbutz Nir Oz.
• Adar was 38 when he was killed on October 7, 2023, while battling the terrorists who invaded the kibbutz, and his body was taken into Gaza. It was not at the time known that he had fallen defending the kibbutz, and for months his family held out hope that he might be alive. His 85-year-old grandmother, Yaffa Adar, was also abducted that morning. She was released in the first ceasefire.
• Arie Zalmanovicz was 85 years old when he was kidnapped alive during the October 7 attack. He was one of the founders of the kibbutz, along with Amiram Cooper and Oded Lifshitz who were also kidnapped that morning and murdered in captivity. Zalmanovicz is believed to have died in November 2023 due to malnutrition and a lack of treatment for his diabetes.
• The bodies of 13 hostages remain in Gaza.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu dismissed the National Security Council Director Tzachi Hanegbi following months of longstanding disagreements between the two. Hanegbi was known to have opposed the expanded military offensive in Gaza that began just before a ceasefire agreement was reached. In his announcement regarding his departure, Hanegbi wrote “The terrible failure of October 7, to which I was party, must be investigated thoroughly to ensure that the correct lessons are learned and in order to help restore the trust that cracked.”

Context: With Vance’s arrival in Israel, he joins Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner who arrived earlier this week.

• The talks in Israel are focused on two issues. The first is stabilising the ceasefire and efforts to prevent it from collapsing, which emerged following the Hamas attack in southern Gaza on Sunday. The second is laying the groundwork for the second stage of the agreement.
• The Director of the General Intelligence Directorate of Egypt Hassan Rashad was also in Jerusalem yesterday, meeting Netanyahu in his office in Jerusalem. Rashad, who has been Egypt’s intelligence chief since 2024, played a key role in mediating the talks which led to a ceasefire. The meeting reportedly focused on the next stages of the ceasefire, with particular focus on the reopening of the Rafah crossing. Rashad’s visit marks the first visit of any senior Egyptian official in Israel since the war began on October 7, 2023.
• A crucial component of phase two will be deployment of a multinational force. There is grave concern that as signatories of the agreement Turkish soldiers could be deployed into Gaza, a move that Israel vehemently opposes.
• Similarly, both the UAE and Saudi Arabia are concerned about the outsized role that Qatar has been given in the future rehabilitation of the Strip.        
• The two US envoys visited the Civil-Military Coordination Centre for implementing the ceasefire in Kiryat Gat in southern Israel. Israeli media  noted the presence of flags from Denmark, German, and Jordan there, but not those of Turkey and Qatar.
• Military personnel at the site reportedly included soldiers from the US, UK, Jordan and the UAE. Regarding the participation of a “small number of British officers,” the a UK Ministry of Defence spokesperson said, “The UK continues to work with international partners to support the ceasefire in Gaza and identify where it can best contribute to the peace process.”
• The Coordination Centre is seen as testament to the seriousness of the US administration’s commitment to the implementation of Trump’s plan.
• It is still unclear when and how the International Stabilisation Force called for in the 20-point plan which ended the war in Gaza will be deployed. The New York Times reports that countries that were expected to contribute troops to the ISF are skittish about entering Gaza and being seen there as fighting Hamas or as a kind of foreign occupying force. Unnamed diplomatic sources refer to discussions involving Indonesia, Egypt, Turkey and Azerbaijan.
• Israeli security officials have also expressed misgivings about the international forces that are to be deployed in Gaza, whose presence will severely limit the IDF’s freedom of action. Far from disarming Hamas, they could, unwittingly or not, serve as a shield for the terrorist organisation.
• During his meeting with Netanyahu, Vance is expected to also discuss the expansion of the Abraham Accords, the anticipated economic impact of the expanded accords and policies regarding Iran.

Looking forward: Secretary of State Marco Rubio is also due to visit Israel in the next few days  to oversee next steps in the implementation of the ceasefire.

• It was announced yesterday that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will visit the White House on November 18. The agenda will likely include new US security guarantees for Saudi Arabia.
• The US is keen to advance an agreement that would lead a normalisation of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia, something the Biden administration was pushing for in the months preceding the October 7 attack and which has been on hold as the ensuing war raged for the two years since.

What’s happening: This morning, after two years of angst and anticipation all twenty of the living hostages have been released from Hamas captivity.

• Prime Minister Netanyahu said in a recorded statement released last night, “This is a historic event that blends sorrow over the release of murderers – and joy over the return of hostages. This is a historic event that some did not believe would happen. But our fighters believed. Many among the people believed. And I believed.”
• The hostages were released in two batches, seven hostages initially with another thirteen being released 2 hours later. As the hostages were transferred to the Red Cross, armed Hamas men in the uniforms of the group’s military wing could be seen at the scene.
• The bodies of 18 dead hostages  are expected to be released in the afternoon.
• Short bios of the freed hostages are available here.
• In exchange for the freed hostages, Israel is releasing nearly 2,000 terrorists from prison, including 191 serving life sentences. Of those serving life terms, 150 are members of Fatah, 23 belong to the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and Islamic Jihad, and only 18 are affiliated with Hamas.

Context: After 738 days, many Israelis did not believe this day would come.  President Trump is receiving most of the credit for delivering the deal.

• The release of the hostages also marks one of the highest points of diplomatic coordination between the White House and the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office.
• That coordination filters down through other government offices and also includes military cooperation. On Sunday, IDF Chief of Staff Zamir along with other senior commanders conducted a field tour in Gaza for US envoy Witkoff, senior adviser Kushner, and CENTCOM Commander Admiral Cooper. Zamir and Cooper are working to ensure the smooth implementation of the ceasefire framework and overall reinforce the close strategic and operational ties.  
• The IDF have stressed that they “maintain operational readiness” as forces remain deployed in their defence posture inside Gaza, in accordance with the agreement.
• Over the weekend, various Palestinian media sources reported on inter-Palestinian violence, as approximately 7000 Hamas operatives sought to quickly reestablish control of the areas ceded by the IDF, clashing with rival clans. This further complicates the next phase of the agreement that is supposed to include the disarmament of Hamas. For Israel this is a crucial litmus test as to whether the international community is able to disarm Hamas and prevent their rearmament without the Israeli military.    
• There is growing fear that amidst the euphoria of receiving the living hostages, not all of the bodies of dead hostages will be located. Messages were delivered to some of the hostage families that their loved ones’ bodies will not be returned in the first stage of the deal.
• Israel is concerned that Hamas is deliberately hiding some of the bodies in order to keep them as bargaining chips. As such, an international task force will attempt to locate any bodies that are not returned. Israel is expected to supply the task force with precise reference points where the remains are likely buried. The task force will include the US, Egypt, Turkey, Qatar and Israel.
• The bodies that are returned will undergo forensic tests to identify them, before the families can bury them.      
• Ambiguity exists around many aspects of the remaining points of the Trump plan. Chief among the concerns are the prominent roles given to both Turkey and Qatar. Both seem to have a vested interest in perpetuating Hamas rule, which is at odds with the rest of the Arab states. Donor countries will be wary of committing to the rebuilding of Gaza if Hamas retain a presence. One Israeli official was quoted as saying that “Turkey can’t be part of a body whose purpose is to disarm Hamas” adding that “Turkey’s presence will disrupt the entire process.”

Summit in Sinai: Following his short visit to Israel in which he will and meet some hostage families, President Trump will arrive in Sharm Sharm el-Sheikh later this afternoon, where he will co-chair a regional summit alongside Egyptian President Sisi.

• The summit will be attended by leaders from over 20 counties from across the Arab and Muslim world and beyond.
• According to the Egypt host, the summit aims “to end the war in the Gaza Strip, enhance efforts to bring peace and stability to the Middle East, and usher in a new phase of regional security and stability.”
• It is thought the focus will be on the second phase of Trump’ plan which includes a new governing body in Gaza without Hamas, the formation of a multinational force, and Hamas’ disarmament.
• The wealthy Arab states will bankroll most of this, but the summit will also secure contributions from other countries too.
• In this context Prime Minister Starmer has pledged £20m for immediate humanitarian aid and a commitment of an additional £160m as part of a broader longer term commitment.
• There has been continued criticism of the British government after their decision to unilaterally recognise a Palestinian state was perceived as a reward to Hamas terrorism. The original announcement in the summer caused Hamas to raise the raise their price at a crucial point in the negotiations. On Sunday Education Secretary Phillipson claimed the UK, “played a key role behind the scenes” to reach the ceasefire. US Ambassador to Israel Huckabee described her comment as “delusional.”
• This morning though, Witkoff tweeted that he wanted to acknowledge what he called the “vital role” of the United Kingdom “in assisting and coordinating efforts that have led us to this historic day in Israel.” In particular Witkoff mentioned the “incredible input and tireless efforts of National Security Advisor Jonathan Powell.”

What’s happened: The IDF Chief of Staff Zamir tour southern Gaza on Wednesday. He reiterated the dual objectives, “to create conditions for the release of the hostages and for Hamas’ decisive defeat.” 

• He was careful to note that the IDF strikes “powerfully and precisely,” whilst “ensuring compliance with all security rules.”
• The IDF’s assessment is that most of the civilian population has now left Gaza City
• Zamir also called upon Gazan residents to, “rise up and break away from Hamas – it is responsible for your suffering. The war and the suffering will end if Hamas releases the hostages and relinquishes its weapons.”
• The Chief of the Staff noted the bravery of Maj. Shahar Netanel Bozaglo, who was killed on the eve of the Jewish New Year, “Shahar left his home on October 7th, took command of a tank and fought in the communities near the Gaza Strip. From then until his death he fought bravely and with dedication for the security of the Israeli communities in the south and the entire State of Israel.”
• This morning it was reported that another soldier, Staff Sergeant Chalachew Shimon Demalash, 21, from Beer Sheva, was killed in combat in the northern Gaza Strip yesterday. 
• A total of 912 IDF soldiers have fallen since the beginning of the war on October 7, 2023.

• A drone launched by the Houthis in Yemen hit a crowded commercial centre in Eilat yesterday during the Rosh Hashana holiday, injuring at least 50 people. Three people are still in hospital including one in a serious condition. The Port of Eilat has been effectively closed for two years due to Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.
• As the holiday was beginning, Hamas released a video of Alon Ohel, who it has been holding hostage since abducting him from the Nova Music Festival on October 7, where nearly 400 festival-goers were murdered. The family has not approved the video for release and asked instead for only one still frame to be shared. In the video, Alon is clearly seen to be blind in one eye and in a poor state of health overall. Alon’s father Kobi said, “To my Alon, my dear boy, be strong. You are strong. We saw that you are strong. Believe in yourself and believe in this moment that is almost here.”

Context: Israel marked the Jewish New Year on the cusp of the Gaza war entering a third year. Beyond Gaza, the overall regional strategic picture is much improved for Israel specifically following the operations in Lebanon, Iran and Syria. At the same time however, Israel faces increasing diplomatic international isolation.

• News from the UN General Assembly was dominated by the states extending recognition to a Palestinian State, an initiative pushed over the last few months by French President Macron.
• On the sidelines of the UNGA, Macron met with Turkish President Erdoğan and Iranian President Pezeshkian. Regarding negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme, Macron said after the meeting, “An agreement remains possible. Only a few hours are left. It is up to Iran to respond to the legitimate conditions we have set.”
• In a speech before the General Assembly, Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto, whose country does not recognise Israel, said, “We must also recognise, we must also respect, and we must also guarantee the safety and security of Israel. Only then we can have real peace.” He vowed that once Israel recognised a Palestinian State, Indonesia, the world’s largest Muslim country, would recognise Israel. He also pledged 20,000 Indonesian soldiers to any future UN-led force that might be deployed in a postwar Gaza.
• Other notable speeches were much more hostile. Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani said that “Israel is not a democratic country surrounded by enemies, but in fact it is an enemy to its surrounding neighbours.” 
• Jordan’s King Abdullah said, “The current Israeli government’s provocative call for a so-called Greater Israel can only be realised through the blatant violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of its neighbours. And there is nothing great about that.” 
• On the sidelines of the UN, President Trump met with several Arab and Muslim leaders. Reports suggest that Trump presented the latest framework principles for ending the war in Gaza, which includes:
  • Release of all the hostages.
  • A permanent ceasefire. 
  • Gradual Israeli pull-back and redeployment of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip.
  • Developing plans for a day after including a mechanism for running Gaza without Hamas. 
  • Deployment of an international force that will include Muslim and Arab troops.
  • Arab states financial backing for the government and rehabilitation of the Strip.
  • A mechanism to integrate the Palestinian Authority into the new leadership.
• Reportedly the Arab states agreed to this formulation but add their own conditions:
  • Israel will not annex parts of the West Bank or Gaza
  • Israel will not occupy parts of Gaza and establish settlements.
  • Israel will stop undermining the status-quo agreement on the Temple Mount. 
  • Immediately increase humanitarian aid into Gaza.

Looking ahead: Prime Minister Netanyahu departed last night for the US and is due to address the UN General Assembly on Friday morning New York time.

• Netanyahu will meet President Trump to discuss several pressing issues including:
  • Coordinating Israel’s response to the wave of recognising a Palestinian State by Britain, France, and others. 
  • US led efforts to reach an agreement between Israel and the new Syrian government.
  • Iran’s ongoing efforts to reconstitute its nuclear programme and the continued attacks by the Houthis on Israel.