Israel, the UK and the world

Updated March 27, 2025

International efforts to support hostage deal

What’s happened: Yesterday President Herzog hosted an international task force focused on the issue of the hostages.

The task force included representatives from the US, UK, Canada, Germany and Austria, and was convened by Israel’s Coordinator for the Hostages and the Missing Brig. Gen. (Res.) Gal Hirsch.
At the start of the meeting, President Herzog said,: “There is a major scar on our nation. There is a major scar on the face of the earth: the issue of the hostages.” He called, “on all parties to the negotiations in Qatar to move forward as much as possible and end this huge tragedy.”
He added, “This is something that should not be acceptable anywhere in the world, in modern day affairs, in human lives, in the international arena. The fact that you’re here on behalf of such important nations is another example of how this issue is on the top of the agenda. It is the key to the door to moving forward for a better future.”
Foreign Minister Saar met yesterday in Abu Dhabi with UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed. The two men discussed regional developments and the bilateral relations between the countries.
In the US, President-elect Trump held a press conference alongside his new envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff.
Relating to the talks in Qatar, Witkoff struck an optimistic note. “I think that we’ve had some really great progress, and I’m really hopeful that by the inaugural, we’ll have some good things to announce on behalf of the president.”

Context: Efforts continue in Qatar to reach a deal, however it remains unclear if the gaps can be breached.

Kan News revealed an internal Israel government document that states that the goal of the agreement is the release of all the Israeli hostages, civilians and soldiers, living and dead, in exchange for an agreed upon number of Palestinian prisoners in Israel, the restoration of a sustainable quiet that will bring about a permanent ceasefire and the Gaza Strip’s reconstruction.
According to a Reuters report the UAE have been holding behind the scenes talks with Israel and the US to explore the formation of a provisional administration for post-war Gaza. According to that report, the parties discussed “the possibility of the UAE and the US, along with other nations, temporarily overseeing the governance, security and reconstruction of Gaza after the Israeli military withdraws and until a Palestinian administration is able to take over.”
An Emirati official is quoted as saying, “The UAE will not participate in any plan that fails to include significant reform of the Palestinian Authority, its empowerment, and the establishment of a credible roadmap toward a Palestinian state.”
In parallel to the diplomatic efforts the fighting in Gaza continues, with IDF forces operating in the north, centre and south of the Strip. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Halevi visited troops in Jabalya saying, “I am looking at the situation that Hamas is in. They see, every single day, what you are doing to them, and they understand that this is becoming unbearable. And I’m telling you, we won’t stop. We will bring them to the point where they understand that they must return all the hostages.”
However inside Israel there is also criticism for the ongoing war, Channel 13 News quoted a high ranking IDF officer saying, “The ground operation has run its course. In the absence of a deal we’re going to return to the same places.”
The cost in human lives continues to rise, three more IDF soldiers all in their 20s have been killed in Gaza in the last two days.
Last night the Israeli Air Force carried out another air strike in Khan Yunis targeting terrorists who took part in the October 7^th massacre. Arab media reported that 18 people were killed. The IDF Spokesperson’s Office said that several steps were taken before the strike to minimise the risk of civilian casualties.
Meanwhile, senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan held a press conference in Algeria. Referring to Trump’s threats, he said, “You don’t threaten hell to the Palestinians, they are already in hell….I don’t believe Blinken’s statements that an agreement can be reached within two weeks.”
While Trump and his team are not formally part of the ongoing negotiations, it is understood that they have been cooperating with the outgoing Biden administration, and Witkoff has travelled to the region several times since his appointment in November.
Amid the fighting and the talk, Israel continues to facilitate the entry of Humanitarian Aid. In the past week, COGAT oversaw over 1,000 trucks entering the Strip. This included over 900 tonnes of equipment for winter – blankets, tarps, coats, and winter clothing. 600 tonnes of hygiene products, 370 tonnes of medical equipment including medication, blood units, and plasma. In addition, medical equipment and medical supplies were coordinated to hospitals in northern Gaza. COGAT also notes, “Hundreds of trucks are currently waiting for collection and distribution on the Gazan side of Kerem Shalom.”
The UAE also continues to play an important humanitarian role. This week Israel facilitated 127 patients to leave Gaza, primarily children, along with their escorts, to receive medical treatment in the UAE.

Looking ahead: The international task force is expected to meet with representatives of the hostages family forum later today.

US envoy Witkoff is expected to join the negotiations in Qatar later this week.
Trump once again warned “all hell will break loose” in the region if an agreement between Israel and Hamas is not reached by his inauguration on January 20^th

December 18, 2024

Netanyahu visits Syrian Hermon

18/12/24

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu has visited the Syrian side of Mount Hermon with the Defence Minister, IDF Chief of Staff and other senior defence officials.

Standing on the mountain, Netanyahu reiterated the importance of staying there “until another arrangement can be found that guarantees Israel’s security,” while invoking his last visit there 53 years earlier as a young special-forces officer.
Defence Minister Katz said that Israel “will remain here for as long as it is needed…Our presence here at the peak of the Hermon strengthens security and adds a dimension of both observation and deterrence to Hezbollah’s strongholds in the Beqaa Valley in Lebanon and deterrence against the rebels in Damascus, who pretend to present a moderate image, but belong to the most extreme Islamic sects.”
In an interview with The Times published on Monday, Ahmed al-Sharaa (better known as Abu Muhammad al-Julani) stressed his commitment to the 1974 agreement with Israel that established a demilitarised zone on Syrian territory after the Yom Kippur War, stated that he did not want a conflict with Israel or anyone else, and would not allow Syria to be used as a “launchpad for attacks.”
However, he also called for Israel to withdraw from the buffer zone and criticised its recent airstrikes on former Syrian regime military hardware, suggesting that while it previously had a right to target Iranian backed militias, it no longer had any legitimacy to operate within Syria.
Despite appearing not to directly threaten Israel at this point, the rebels remain a significant cause of concern in Jerusalem given their historic extremism and links to Al Qaeda.

Context: Given the speed of the rebel takeover, it remains unclear how Syria‘s future may evolve and how this will impact on Israel.

The IDF entered the high ground in the 155-square-mile buffer zone in Syria just over a week ago, after the Assad regime collapsed to ensure rebels did not take over the area that offers a commanding view of strategically sensitive territory and is in close proximity to Israeli communities.
That buffer zone was created in the aftermath of the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the 1974 disengagement agreement between Israel and Syria. Since then, it has been Israel’s quietest border.
While it is almost certainly too early for the post-Assad Syria to formulate a cogent policy towards Israel, early indications suggest a pragmatic and non-confrontational approach is being taken.
Israel’s response to developments in Syria is indicative of a position that views Islamists (both Sunni and Shia) on Israel’s borders as a potential serious security threat.
While the mainstream view in Israel is that the collapse of the Assad regime was precipitated by Israel’s defeat of Hezbollah and the weakening of Iran’s Axis of Resistance, it nevertheless empowered Islamist Turkey which will likely have increased influence in the post-Assad Syria.
Last month Shin Bet Chief, Ronen Bar visited Turkey, Israeli media reports have suggested the visit was prompted by concerns about Turkish weaponry being smuggled into the West Bank, and a significant network of pro-Hamas charities freely able to fundraise for the terrorist group.
Israel is also aware of fears among Syria’s Kurdish and Druze minority populations for their own future in a post-Assad Syria, and is closely monitoring the situation. Shortly before taking office, Israel’s new Foreign Minister, Gideon Saar, had indicated that alliances with Middle Eastern minorities including Druze and Kurds should be formed, and that these efforts should be pursued alongside a normalisation deal with Saudi Arabia.
One Likud MK has proposed an international conference “to rearrange the international borders in Syria with its neighbours” and requested that Prime Minister Netanyahu considers dividing the country into a number of cantons. Such a proposal does not represent Israeli government policy.
Last week, Israel estimated that they had destroyed 80 per cent of the Syrian military in the largest operation the IDF had even launched. Most of what remains is considered obsolete and not worth wasting munitions in destroying.

Looking ahead: Israel will continue to closely monitor the developing situation in Syria, primarily with a view towards guaranteeing its own security, preventing a build-up of adjacent hostile forces, and ensuring the protection of communities in the Golan Heights and adjoining Galilee.

December 17, 2024

Efforts intensify to reach hostage deal

17/12/24

What’s happening: An Israeli delegation left last night for Qatar suggesting progress has been made in the hostage deal negotiations.

Speaking to the Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee in the Knesset yesterday Defence Minister Katz reportedly said, “Israel is closer than ever to another hostage deal.”
Minister Katz is also quoted as saying, “The Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors won’t constitute an obstacle. Hamas is flexible on this issue…They understand that we aren’t going to end the war.”
Katz anticipates a large majority in the cabinet and the security cabinet will vote in favour of a proposed deal, adding, “I have defined and instructed the security establishment to prioritise the release of the hostages.”
Foreign Minister Saar also expressed his support for the current proposal saying, “I’m more optimistic than a month ago, but we have to remember that every sentence uttered affects the families.”
Similarly the heads of Mossad and Shin Bet have reportedly told the security cabinet that Hamas is showing new willingness to reach a deal that didn’t exist before.
Adam Boehler, President-elect Trump’s envoy for hostage affairs, met yesterday with Prime Minister and a range of other senior officials in the Knesset.
Speaking at the White House’s Chanukah party President Biden said, “This is the second Chanukah since the horrors of October 7^th. The trauma of that day and its aftermath is still raw and ongoing. I’ve gotten over 100 hostages out. I will not stop until I get every single one of them home.”
Three rockets were fired out of the central Gaza Strip at Israel over the weekend. One landed in an open area, the others were intercepted. The launchers were positioned just a few dozen meters from warehouses that are used by international aid workers.

Contours of the deal: The current talks are understandably being conducted secretly, so as not to jeopardise their success. However Arab media have reported updated details of a potential deal:

It will begin with a declared ceasefire ranging from six to eight weeks, which might start with an initial two-week pause in fighting that would be renewed for a month.
In this period Hamas and Palestinian factions would release at least 20 Israeli hostages; women, children and the over 50’s plus possibly four or five with dual US citizenship.
In exchange, Israel would release a group of Palestinian prisoners, including at least 100 convicted terrorists serving long sentences.
Israel would gradually allow an increase in the number of Humanitarian Aid trucks entering the Gaza Strip to at least 400, including fuel for hospitals, bakeries, and water pumping stations.
In the second stage, negotiations would begin regarding the remaining male captives in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners, and then negotiations would move to the exchange of corpses.
Israeli troops are supposed to withdraw gradually from the population centres and cities along with the release of the first group of hostages.
Israel will maintain a temporary presence on the Philadelphi Corridor (the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt) and the Netzarim Corridor (which partitions the Gaza Strip), and the border crossings, especially in the northern Gaza Strip.

Outstanding issues: There are numerous details still to be negotiated.

The mechanism and details of any IDF redeployment and the freedom of action Israel will have following it. Despite Katz’ optimistic comments regarding the status of the Philadelphi and Netzarim Corridors, their status remains to be determined.
Israel is still seeking clarification on the precise identities and number of hostages that remain alive and trying to ensure as many as possible are included in the first release stage.
The ratio of hostage to prisoners to be released remains undetermined as well as the identities of the Palestinian prisoners, where they will be returned to (Gaza, West Bank or Turkey/Arab states), and what sort of veto Israel will have on the names of heavy weight prisoners demanded by Hamas.
It is important for Hamas that displaced Gazans are able to return to northern Gaza. The sides will need to agree on this issue as well a screening mechanism for Gazan civilians who wish to return.
Questions also remain about the future of Hamas leaders and fighters that remain in Gaza.

Context: The main drivers for the deal appear to be the Israeli military success’s against the Iranian camp in Lebanon and Syria and President-elect Trump’s threat. Both have further isolated Hamas to now seek a deal.

Both the Biden and Trump teams are motivated to see a deal completed soon. Biden wants a deal for closure of the issue and as part of his legacy. Trump is keen to start his term with a clean slate.
On the Israeli side there is still heavy scepticism that Hamas are truly prepared to do a deal. Largely due to the ideological extremism, but also that the hostages remain their greatest asset that they are reluctant to give up.
The most controversial aspect will be the release of heavyweight terrorists in return for the hostages. There is lingering concern that just as Sinwar was released in the Shalit deal Israel could be releasing unrepentant murderers who are motivated to return to terrorism. This is particularly acute after all the effort of the war to destroy Hamas’s terror capacity.
Despite political threats from hard right coalition partners, Ben Gvir and Smotrich who as a result may vote against the deal, it is thought Netanyahu will still have a majority in the cabinet and the security cabinet to secure a deal.
There is also heightened concern from some of the hostage families that a partial deal will mean a death sentence for those not released. A statement issued by the hostages’ families in Tel Aviv demanded that the government refuse a “partial deal.”
In London the Henry Jackson Society released a new report by Andrew Fox revealing that the number of civilians killed in Gaza has been inflated. According to the report, “The ministry of health, operating under Hamas, has systematically inflated the death toll by failing to distinguish between civilian and combatant deaths, over-reporting fatalities among women and children and even including individuals who died before the conflict began….This has led to a narrative where the Israel Defence Forces are portrayed as disproportionately targeting civilians, while the actual numbers suggest a significant proportion of the dead are combatants.”
All of the rockets fired over the last few days have emanated from the camps in the central Gaza Strip, which is the only area in which the IDF has not yet operated on a full scale.
Trump’s envoy Boehler is considered to hold a belligerent stance on Hamas, a week ago he was quoted saying that anyone who holds hostages needs to think carefully about what might happen to him.
Boehler was Trump’s mediator in the talks that led to the Abraham Accords, and was appointed the president’s special envoy for American hostage affairs.

Looking ahead: US National Security Advisor Sullivan has suggested that a deal could be concluded by the end of December.

While Trump has reissued his warning to Hamas that there will be “all hell to pay” if it does not release the hostages by the time he takes office.

December 16, 2024

Israel clarifies position on Syria

16/12/24

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke to President-elect Trump on Sunday. Following the call he issued a statement noting, “We have no interest in a conflict with Syria. We will determine Israeli policy regarding Syria according to the reality on the ground.”

IDF Chief of Staff Halevi struck a similar tone when he visited Northern Command saying, “We are here to defend along the border in the Golan Heights, northern Golan Heights, and Mount Hermon. There was a country here that was an enemy state, its army collapsed, and there is a threat that terrorist elements could reach here. We moved forward so that these terrorist elements will not establish themselves… right next to the border. We are not intervening in what is happening in Syria. We have no intention of managing Syria. We are unequivocally intervening in what determines the security of Israeli citizens here, behind us in the communities of the Golan Heights, and we are doing that professionally and correctly, and we are doing it with determination.”
The statement followed comments over the weekend by the Syrian rebel leader, Jolani, who recognised that Israel formerly had the excuse of Iran’s presence in Syria to attack it, but that reason was “now over,” adding: “After the Iranian’s departure, there isn’t any reason for any intervention in Syria. In Syria’s condition, we aren’t about to enter into any conflict, and we are in contact with the international community.”
Jolani added, “There are a lot of things behind the scenes of the war that will be revealed in the future. What happened wasn’t a coincidence; rather, we had planned for that for years. We have a plan for dealing with all the crises in Syria. We are at the information-collecting stage, and we have plans and readiness for Syria’s construction and development.”
Meanwhile, over the weekend Israel continued to destroy what was left of advanced Syrian military hardware. Arab media reported a series of attacks against military targets, including military headquarters, radars, and weapons storage sites.
Syrian media reported that the IDF attacked outside Tartus on the Mediterranean coast. The attack appears to have targeted arms storerooms, and produced a powerful explosion.
According to the Russian news agency, Sputnik, the Israeli Air Force carried out 52 sorties on Saturday night across Syria within the space of four hours.

Context: The sudden fall of Assad’s regime has Syria has dramatically changed the strategic position between Israel and Iran, with significant repercussions felt across the region.

Last week, Israel estimated that they had destroyed 80 per cent of the Syrian military in the largest operation the IDF had even launched. Most of what remains is considered obsolete and not worth wasting munitions in destroying.
With Hezbollah defeated, Assad toppled, the Iranian doctrine of surrounding Israel with a ring of fire has collapsed.
The Iranians now face a choice if they wish to retain a belligerent and aggressive posture. They could choose to ramp up their efforts to obtain nuclear weapons. Or they could seek to reach an agreement with the US over limiting their enrichment or face further economic sanctions.
Hezbollah leader Qassem also admitted over the weekend that they have now lost their supply line from Iran.
Following the success of the rebels in Syria there is concern that it could spread, both to Jordan and the West Bank.
Over the weekend head of the Shin Bet Bar and head of IDF Intelligence Maj. Gen. Binder visited Jordan and met with senior officials, presumably amid concerns that the unrest in Syria might produce similar developments in Jordan.
Israel is concerned both for Jordan’s stability and the potential for Iran to increase efforts to smuggle weapons via Jordan into the West Bank.
In parallel the Palestinian Authority (PA) Security Forces have stepped up operations against terror infrastructure in Jenin. This is understood at both curbing any moves that could challenge the PA and also position them as potential partners in governing Gaza after the war is over.
Jolani’s comments (above) can be interpreted two ways. They could be a warning to Israel that they will seek to open hostilities in the future or an informal understanding of non-belligerence.
Israel reports suggest the latest call between Netanyahu and Trump was particularly warm and friendly, as Netanyahu hopes they will be closely coordinated on the Iranian threat and a potential hostage deal.
Netanyahu apparently appealed to Trump to increase the pressure so that more hostages will be included in the deal.
The call further highlighted the importance of coordination and continuity. Any potential agreement secured by the Biden team will need to be implemented by Trump’s.
In line with the understandings reached with President Biden, the IDF continues its low intensity campaign to challenge Hezbollah violations in southern Lebanon.

Looking ahead: The losses of Iranian axis has also isolated Hamas making them potentially more susceptible to agree a deal to release the hostages.

While the details have not been revealed, there remains hope that an agreement including a temporary ceasefire can be reached in the weeks ahead.

December 11, 2024

Israel claims 80% of Syrian military’s equipment destroyed

11/12/24

What’s happened: in the past 48 hours, Israeli strikes across Syria have destroyed up to 80% of the country’s strategic military equipment in a bid to prevent it from falling into hostile hands.

In a statement yesterday, the IDF confirmed that it had conducted over 350 strikes in Syria against what it is describing as “strategic targets” in Operation Bashan Arrow.
These targets included two Syrian naval ports at Latakia and Al-Bayda, sea-to-sea missiles with ranges of 80-190km, anti-aircraft batteries, weapons production sites, Scud missiles, cruise missiles, surface-to-sea, surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missiles, UAVs, fighter jets, attack helicopters, radars, tanks, electronic warfare systems, intelligence bases and hangars. The Israel Navy also destroyed approximately 15 missile boats and approximately 20 coast guard vessels, minelayers and landing ships that were in Syrian possession.
The Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Centre in Damascus, which was considered a cover for the development and production of chemical weapons, missiles and rockets – and which more recently helped Hezbollah to improve the precision of its rockets – was also destroyed.
Speaking after the attacks, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that while Israel would seek to establish relations with the post-Assad regime Syria and not interfere in its internal affairs, “we certainly do intend to do what is necessary to ensure our security” in a confirmation that it would not hesitate to defend itself.
The Prime Minister added “if this regime allows Iran to reestablish itself in Syria, or allows the transfer of Iranian weapons or any other weapons to Hezbollah, or attacks us, we will respond forcefully and we will exact a heavy price from it…What happened to the previous regime will also happen to this regime.”
While Bashan Arrow was being completed, the Israeli Army continued its takeover of the 1974 Syrian buffer zone and now controls the entirety of Mount Hermon.
The UN has criticised Israel’s actions in the buffer zone, and accused it of violating the 1974 Syria disengagement deal.
Syrian sources have alleged that Israeli forces are operating outside of the buffer zone and approaching Damascus, which the IDF has strenuously denied. Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, and the Arab League also criticised the Israeli move.
Following the collapse of the Assad regime, Mohammed al-Bashir who previously led Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) de facto rebel government in Idlib province, has been appointed as Syria’s caretaker Prime Minister until 1st March 2025.
Speaking to Al Jazeera afterwards, al-Bashir confirmed that efforts were being made include previous government members in any transition arrangements “in order to facilitate all the necessary works for the next two months until we have a constitutional system to be able to serve the Syrian people.”
Prime Minister Starmer has confirmed that no decision has been made yet on whether or not HTS will be removed from the Home Office’s list of banned organisations, and that it was “far too early” to consider a policy change, despite one of his Cabinet members earlier telling the BBC that this was a possibility.
The UN and US are also both reportedly considering delisting HTS as a terrorist group on the condition that it renounces terror, takes meaningful steps towards forming an inclusive government, and protects minorities.

Context: The destruction of the Syrian army’s main capabilities is the largest military operation the IDF has ever undertaken, and one the IDF had not prepared in advance.

It was based on the logic that Syria possessed significant capabilities that could pose a threat were they to fall into irresponsible hands.
Destroying the Syrian army’s capabilities was not previously carried out during the civil war so as to not be seen as Israel declaring war on the Assad regime, as well as due to the fear upsetting the Russians.
Before Assad’s fall, the Syrian military possessed 30 MiG 29 fighter jets, about 150 MiG 21, MiG 23 and Sukhoi 22 fighter jets, as well as 18 mid-range Sukhoi 24 bomber aircraft, half of which were thought to be still usable. The Syrian regime also possessed about 50 Mi-17 troop transportation aircraft, about 30 Mi-24 helicopter gunships and French-made Gazelle helicopters.
Of bigger concern to Israel was Syria’s air defence systems. These included more than 100 SA-5 and S300 long range batteries, mobile BUK-M1/2 and Pantsir missiles and other models. In 2021, one of the SA-5F batteries successfully downed an IAF F-16.
The collapse of the Assad regime is widely understood in Israel as a second order effect of the catastrophic weakening of Iran’s Axis of Resistance following Hezbollah’s recent defeat in southern Lebanon and Russia’s preoccupation with war in Ukraine.
Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria 2011-2015, before the Russian intervention – had acted as a regime survival guarantor. Yet following the recent war with Israel, Hezbollah was in no position to deploy to Syria and hold off the recent rebel offensive in any meaningful way.
Similarly, Russia also lacked the resources to significantly support Assad as it did from 2015 until its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
While Yahya Sinwar had hoped that last year’s 7th October attacks would catalyse a regional upheaval against Israel, the opposite has in fact proven true: Hamas has functionally been removed from governing the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah has been decimated with much of its leadership assassinated and weaponry destroyed; Iran’s client regime in Syria has been overthrown; and almost the entirety of Iran’s air defence systems has been neutralised.
The 235-square-kilometre demilitarised buffer zone was established as part of the 1974 Agreement on Disengagement between Israel and Syria. Since then it has been by UN peacekeepers, UNDOF. Israel argues that following the fall of the Assad regime, it considers the agreement void.

Hostage negotiations: The IDF and Shin Bet’s leadership have joined discussions in Cairo aimed at securing a ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza that would ultimately lead to the release of hostages captured on 7th October 2023.

Ronen Bar and Herzi Halevi met with senior Egyptian officials following an assessment that the chances of reaching an agreement with Hamas had increased.
Although Hamas has not given any publication indication as to its current views on whether or not it is open to a ceasefire and releasing hostages, Israeli officials believe this may be the case and there may be a chance to reach a deal in the month-long run up before President-elect Trump’s inauguration.

December 9, 2024

Israel moves into demilitarised zone on Golan as Assad regime collapses

09/12/24

What’s happened: Syrian rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and backed by Turkey announced that they had captured Damascus and the Baathist regime led by Bashar al-Assad had fallen.

Assad is reported to have fled Syria with his family, and is understood to have been granted asylum in Russia.
The former Syrian Prime Minister, Mohammed Ghazi Jalali, has said that the government was ready to “extend its hand” and turn its functions over to a transitionary administration. He has also called for free elections and confirmed he is in contact with rebel leaders.
In a statement read out on TV, the head of HTS and the de-facto leader of the rebel forces, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, declared “the future is ours” and said “there is no room for turning back”. The Syrian opposition coalition has also confirmed that it is working towards forming a transitional governing body with full executive powers, and has ambitions to form both global and regional partnerships.
President Biden said the fall of the Assad’s regime “is a direct result of the blows that Ukraine and Israel have delivered against Russia, Hamas, and Hezbollah with unflagging support from the United States.” Biden added that there was a historic opportunity to build a better future in Syria, but cautioned it was also a moment of risk and uncertainty in the region. US Central Command said the US military had struck more than 75 ISIS targets in the country to prevent the terrorist group from taking advantage of the situation there.
Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the Separation of Forces Agreement between Israel and Syria – signed after the Yom Kippur War – had collapsed, and Israel deployed troops to the buffer zone on the Syrian border to guarantee the security of communities in the Golan Heights. Israel also conducted several airstrikes on ammunition and weapons depots across Syria – including those connected to chemical weapons – to destroy equipment it fears may fall into hostile hands.
Referring to the collapse of the Assad regime, Netanyahu said: “This is a historic day in the history of the Middle East. The Assad regime – a central link in Iran’s axis of evil – has fallen.”
Prime Minister Starmer, has welcomed the collapse of the regime while calling for “peace and stability” in the country and rejecting terrorism. The PM said the collapse of Assad’s regime marked a positive change for the Syrian people and that the way of tackling problems of terrorism and restoring security is through a political solution which the UK will be engaged with. Foreign Secretary Lammy also called for the protection of minorities while reiterating how “Syrians deserve an inclusive political transition and a pathway to peace and security.”
Despite being a longstanding patron of the Assad regime, Iran has responded cooly with a statement from their foreign ministry saying “the relations between the two nations of Iran and Syria have a long history and have always been friendly, and it is expected that these relations will continue”.

Context: The Assad family has been in control of Syria for over half a century and has been in a perpetual state of conflict with Israel. However, since the cessation of the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the armistice agreement the following year it has been one of Israel’s quietest borders.

In recent years, Syria has been a central component of Iran’s circle of fire, surrounding Israel with hostile entities and crucially serving as an overland link to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Iran has also used Syrian territory to develop and store advanced weapons systems destined both for Hezbollah but Iranian militias inside Syria.
The timing of the rebel offensive and the speed of the Syrian army collapse has been widely credited to Israel’s success in dismantling Hezbollah’s military capacity. With Russia predisposed with its war in Ukraine, the Syrian army was left isolated with the rebels taking full advantage.
This marks the first time since the 1974 Agreement on Disengagement was signed that Israeli forces have taken up positions inside the buffer zone between Israel and Syria, albeit having briefly entered on several other occasions.
Israel’s top priority is to defend civilian communities living on the Golan Heights in close vicinity to the border and to prevent rebels from threatening the Israeli border. The first area the troops entered on Saturday was around the Druze village of Hader in an effort to assist UN forces to repel an attack.
Hader is considered the sister village of Majdal Shams (which is located on the Israeli side of the Golan) with close familial bonds between the two.
In recent months Israel has dug deep anti-tank ditches along the Syrian border to prevent an invasion by pick-up trucks similar to those used by Hamas on October 7th.
Israel’s second priority is to prevent advanced weapons systems from falling into the hands of the rebels. Since the middle of last week, Israel has been carrying out a series of strikes against strategic weapons facilities held by the Assad regime.
Syria formerly possessed the largest arsenal of chemical weapons in the world. While most of that arsenal was removed from Syrian territory, it is thought likely to still possess capabilities (and know-how).
Despite disaffiliating from Al Qaeda, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham remains proscribed in the UK with Home Office guidance stipulating that it “should be treated as alternative names for the organisation which is already proscribed under the name Al Qa’ida” (sic). This will likely pose significant challenges to the Labour government given HTS’s leading role in the current rebel coalition.

Looking ahead: Prime Minister Starmer visits the Gulf countries this week, aiming to strengthen the trade and defence partnerships between the UK and the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which are the ‘most vital modern-day partners’. He will also be discussing the new leadership in Syria and the opportunity to create change.

With Iran reeling from the collapse of its regional proxies there is heightened concern that Iran could increase its efforts to develop nuclear weapons.

December 6, 2024

Israeli concerns as Syrian rebels push south

06/12/24

What’s happened: Turkish-backed Syrian rebels have continued their advance and captured the city of Hama following the withdrawal of the regime’s troops.

Hama is the second major city taken by the rebels, and its fall marks another major setback for President Assad.
Regime forces withdrew following rebels breaking through their defensive lines to the north of the city, despite being reinforced by Russian air support and the local redeployment of Iranian supported militias.
Hama has approximately a million inhabitants, and is located around 70 miles south of Aleppo. It is just under 30 miles north of Homs, which is now also being threatened by the rebels.
Hezbollah’s Secretary General, Naim Qassem yesterday confirmed that the organisation would support Syrian government forces against the advance of what it referred to as “terrorist groups”, also blaming Israel and the US for the rebels’ recent successes.
Earlier this week, the IDF confirmed that it had killed Hezbollah’s main liaison with the Syrian army in an airstrike on Damascus.
Syrian sources have claimed that Israel also carried out extensive strikes on weapons storage facilities in the Damascus area.
Iraq’s Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, has also commented on the escalating Syrian situation, confirming on Tuesday that his country would not be a “bystander” where it feared that ethnic groups and sects could be victims of ethnic cleansing. “What is happening in Syria today is in the interest of the Zionist entity [Israel], which deliberately bombed Syrian army sites in a way that paved the way for terrorist groups to control additional areas in Syria”, the Iraqi Prime Minister’s office quoted Sudani as saying.

Context: These developments are highly concerning for Israel given the risk of advanced “strategic” weapons falling into the hands of hostile rebel groups, the prospect of Iran-backed Shia fighters moving into Syria in support of the regime, and a failed state sitting on its northern border.

Writing for Yediot Ahronot, Ron Ben Yishai suggests that “missiles and perhaps chemical weapons that are in northern and central Syria are liable to fall within days, perhaps even hours, into the hands of the jihadist rebels, and perhaps already have.”
Of particular concern is the Syrian military-industrial complex in the area of As-Safira southeast of Aleppo where precision guided missiles were manufactured, despite it recently being attacked by the Israeli Air Force.
Irrespective of ideology, Israel is almost certainly prioritising preventing any of its adversaries from obtaining new strategic capabilities, and is likely to continue striking any such weaponry held by the regime to prevent it from falling into rebel hands.
Others have argued that Israel’s interests are best served by severing the Assad regime from the Iranians. Amos Yadlin, a former head of military intelligence has argued that, in this case, Israel would be better off with the “devil we don’t know.” He believes Sunni rebel groups are not expected to turn their weapons against Israel, certainly not in the short and medium term.
Following the seeming failure of Russian aid as a guarantor for the regime’s survival, Iranian-backed Shia militias are now coming to its aid causing significant concern to the Israeli government. It is feared that these groups could constitute the beginning of a new Iranian entrenchment in Syria which may in turn move south to the Israeli border.
If the rebels take Homs, it would mark a major strategic blow for the regime. Its fall would extend rebel control through a corridor from the Turkish border in the north to just short of the Lebanese border in south, almost bisecting the country and denying regime forces the ability to move between their coastal strongholds and capital of Damascus.
The prospect of sharing a border with a failed state where Iran may fund and raise proxies to attack Israel with is also a major threat, and not one the Israeli government will tolerate.
Earlier this week, a second Israeli government delegation visited Moscow in the space of less than a month, reportedly to discuss developments in Syria. Israel and Russia have previously worked closely to deconflict air force activities.
The Israeli government is preparing for the eventuality that the Syrian army may collapse altogether, while Prime Minister Netanyahu and security chiefs are holding regular meetings on the subject.

Looking ahead: Israel will continue to closely monitor the situation as well as staying coordinated with the US, while stressing that it is not supporting either side.

December 5, 2024

Renewed cautious optimism for a hostage deal

05/12/24

What’s happened: More details have emerged of the new Egyptian proposal to reach a deal to release the hostages.

Many of the finer details are still unclear and some still need to be negotiated, but these appear to be the contours of a new agreement:
- The deal will begin with a temporary ceasefire that will last between 45 and 60 days.
- In that time, there will be a gradual / staged release of living hostages. Earlier deals spoke of the 33 hostages. It is not clear if it will reach that figure.
- In return, Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. The ratio still needs to be negotiated.
- One of the most dramatic clauses appears to be the opening of the Rafah crossing (between Egypt and Gaza) that will be placed under the control of the Palestinian Authority (PA).
- It also includes a substantial increase in the supply of Humanitarian Aid into the Gaza Strip, thought to be up to 350 trucks a day.
In light of these developments, Qatar has announced that it is also ready to resume its mediation role.
The announcement came as the Amir of Qatar Tamim Bin in Hamad Al Thani continued his state visit to the UK and met with Prime Minister Starmer. As part of their conversation Starmer “commended Qatar’s leadership in mediation…. Including their role in securing the release of hostages.”
The prime minister added, “we must continue to push for all hostages to be released, including British national Emily Damari.”
In a joint IDF-Shin Bet operation, the body of Itai Svirsky a 38 year old hostage was recovered inside Gaza and has been brought back to Israel.
Also yesterday, the IDF released details of the inquiry into the death of six hostages whose bodies were found in a tunnel in Khan Yunis in August. According to their findings, they were all executed by gunshot in February following an Israeli airstrike in their close vicinity. It is thought their captors were then killed, possibly as a result of toxic fumes from the strike. Prior to the public release, the IDF presented the findings of the inquiry to the families of the six hostages—Alex Dancyg, Yagev Buchshtav, Chaim Peri, Yoram Metzger, Nadav Popplewell and Avraham Munder.
In the US, President-elect Trump announced that he would appoint Adam Boehler as special presidential envoy for hostage affairs.

Context: Despite the cautious optimism, there remains more questions than answers, particularly how to square the circle of fundamental disagreements between Israel and Hamas.

Hamas has continued to insist that any deal signals the end of the war. Israel is not prepared to give that guarantee. The temporary ceasefire could be temporary solution.
Hamas also continues to insist that the IDF fully withdraws from the Strip. While this seems unlikely, the Egyptians are exploring options for a redeployment or a gradual withdrawal that will satisfy both sides.
If Israel were to allow the PA control and authority over the Rafah crossing, that would be a significant concession and would mark a dramatic reintegration of the PA into Gaza. The control of crossing has significance regarding sovereignty of the Strip and the large financial implications (denying Hamas crucial future income) and could be a significant feature for post war rehabilitation.
If Prime Minister Netanyahu agrees to this, it will mark a sharp change in policy. It remains unclear how his right wing coalition partners will respond.
Hamas has also long objected to the PA reinserting itself into such an important symbolic and practical role.
There is concern amid the visit of the Qatari leader that they continue to play a duplicitous role having hosted and funded Hamas for many years and have not done enough to exert requisite pressure on Hamas to release the hostages.
Itai Svirsky was kidnapped from Kibbutz Beeri on October 7th. He was there visiting his parents on the Jewish festival of Simchat Torah. Both his parents were killed on the 7th. It is believed Svirsky was taken alive and murdered after about four months in captivity.
The recovery of his body now leaves exactly 100 hostages in Hamas captivity.
Trump’s appointment of Boehler follows his threat that there would be “all hell to pay” if the hostages were not released by the time he enters office.
Boehler served in Trump’s first term and was one of the lead negotiators of the Abraham Accords and the Taliban.

Looking ahead: Israel’s security cabinet is due to convene this evening with the meeting expected to be focused on these developments.

The next stage of the feasibility test of this new proposal will be when Israel sends a senior delegation to Cairo to explore these issues in more detail. The delegation is expected to be led by head of the Shin Bet Ronen Bar.
In parallel it is expected that Hamas’s negotiating team will retune to Doha to resume the talks.
The optimistic scenario is to have a deal before President-elect Trump enters office on January 20th

December 3, 2024

“Starmer: Iran is a state sponsor of terror”

03/12/12

What happened: Prime Minister Starmer yesterday laid out the UK government’s views on Israel and the wider region.

In a speech at Labour Friends of Israel (LFI) calling for a “better future for the next generation,” Starmer reiterated the position of the government on Israel and the wider region. He called for a lasting ceasefire in Gaza, the return of the hostages and a two-state solution emphasising that there “is no place for Hamas.” Starmer voiced his support for the expansion of the Abraham Accords, criticised BDS, and described violence by pro-Palestinian protesters as antisemitism.
Starmer announced that the foreign secretary will convene an inaugural meeting of international partners to discuss support for civil society in the region. This concerns LFI’s longstanding campaign for an ‘International Fund for Israeli-Palestinian Peace.’
Starmer vowed not to turn a “blind eye as Iran seeks to destabilise the Middle East.” “We have imposed tough sanctions on the IRGC and we unreservedly condemn Iran’s attacks,” he said. He described the Islamic Republic as “a country which is repressing its own citizens, coordinating proxy armies and terrorist groups, intimidating the region with the veiled menace of its nuclear programme, and even seeking to incite violence and extremism here in the UK.”
Starmer also said: “Make no mistake – Iran is a state sponsor of terror. Whether that’s through their funding, training, and support for Hamas –making the October 7 attack possible. Or the Houthis who have attacked Israel and caused chaos to international shipping or for Hezbollah in Lebanon.”
The PM said that the UK “respect the independence of the ICC. We are signatories to the Rome Statute.” He added that he would “never accept any equivalence between Israel – a democracy, and Hamas – a terrorist organisation.”
Starmer reiterated the UK government’s support for the return of the hostages, “There is no ceasefire worthy of the name, which does not, as item number one include the return of all the hostages.”
Starmer also said violence from pro-Palestinian protesters is antisemitism: “Violence, harassment, and intimidation of British Jews on our streets – and online. Let me be clear – that behaviour is not – and can never be called – pro-Palestinian…Let’s call it what it is – it is antisemitism, through and through.”
The PM also criticised settler extremism and violence, saying expansionism in the West Bank will “not help Israel’s position.”
On the rebuilding of Palestine, Starmer said that “there is no place for Hamas”, and that Israel cannot have a safe future without a “viable Palestinian state.” He added that “antisemitic incitement in Palestinian media, violence against Jews and glorifying terrorism in schools, will only weaken Palestinian security in the long term.”
Also speaking at the lunch, Ambassador Hotovely pushed for tougher action against Iran. She also said that Israel would “never forget the moment when in April, Royal Air Force fighter pilots took action to defend Israel from attack by Iran: the world’s oldest democracy standing by the Middle East’s only democracy.”
LFI Chair Jon Pearce MP also addressed the lunch saying: “this wasn’t a war of Israel’s choice or making. It was a war inflicted on Israelis and Palestinians by Iran and its proxies. They launched this war for one reason: to murder as many Jews as possible to further their mission to wipe Israel from the map. From that clarity must come action. Israel is on the frontline of a wider battle: one between democracy and autocracy. This isn’t just Israel’s fight: it is ours too.”
Mandy Damari, the mother of Emily, the only remaining British hostage, also addressed the lunch. She said the fact that the UK’s vote at the UN in November for an unconditional ceasefire in Gaza wasn’t tied to the release of hostages “broke her heart.”
After her speech on the importance of bringing Emily home to safety, Mandy Damari called for action from the Prime Minister, saying: “From the United Nations and the Red Cross to the Qatari Government, I have been calling for Humanitarian Aid to be delivered immediately to all the hostages. Today I asked Keir Starmer and the British government to lead this effort on the international stage, to secure urgent medical visits to Emily and the other 100 hostages, before it is too late and to keep them all alive, while the campaign to bring them home continues.”

Context: This is the first speech Starmer has made to LFI supporters since he became Prime Minister.

Over 100 parliamentarians, including cabinet ministers Peter Kyle, David Lammy, Pat McFadden, Lucy Powell, Steve Reed, Ellie Reeves, Rachel Reeves, and Jonathan Reynolds attended the lunch and speech.
While his speech referred to previous Labour governments proscribing Hamas, Hezbollah and the PIJ, it did not mention proscribing Iran’s IRGC.
In April, after Iran fired over 300 missiles and drones towards Israel, the UK sanctioned a further 7 individuals and 6 entities who it said “have enabled Iran to conduct destabilising regional activity, including its direct attack on Israel.” It followed a decision in January 2024, in which the UK imposed sanctions on individual members of the IRGC’s Unit 840 over plots to assassinate two television presenters from the news channel Iran International on British soil.
The government said at the time that the plot was “just the latest credible reporting of the regime’s attempt to intimidate or kill British nationals or UK-linked individuals, with at least 15 such threats taking place since January 2022.”
It remains to be seen if the government will proscribe the IRGC. Before he became Defence Secretary, John Healey was supportive, arguing that proscribing the IRGC was “the leading edge of the threat that Iran poses not just to Israel, but to Arab countries and western interests right across the region. It’s the way that the Iranians sponsor and support violent military militia groups that destabilise the region and threaten other countries as well.”
Last week ex-British Army signaller, Daniel Khalife, was found guilty of spying for Iran. While the information Khalife was passing to Iran was largely trivial – with some having been faked – it nevertheless indicates Iran’s intentions towards the UK and serves as evidence of the espionage they are conducting in the country.
In November 2022, the head of MI5 Ken McCallum publicly revealed that foiling Iranian assassination attempts had formed much of the security services’ work in the past year. “Iran projects a threat to the UK directly, through its aggressive intelligence services”, said McCallum. “At its sharpest this includes ambitions to kidnap or even kill British or UK-based individuals perceived as enemies of the regime. We have seen at least ten such potential threats since January alone.”
The UK’s National Cyber Security Centre has also reported Iranian attacks on British infrastructure.

Looking ahead: The UK government’s position on the ICC arrest warrants – and whether they would support the arrest of Prime Minister Netanyahu if he stood on British soil – remains to be clarified.

Mandy Damari will be speaking directly with press for the first time in London this Thursday. She will also be meeting the Prime Minister of Qatar, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Bin Jassim Al Thanias, as part of his forthcoming state visit to the UK.

December 2, 2024

Israel closely monitoring developments in Syria as rebels make gains

02/12/2024

What’s happened: The Israeli government has held high-level consultations with senior defence officials after a coalition of Turkish-backed Sunni Arab Syrian rebel groups launched their first offensive against pro-government forces since 2020 leading to the shock capture of Aleppo.

In an offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) several towns in the Aleppo and Idlib provinces have now fallen under rebel control while Hama is also reportedly under threat. HTS now control significant amounts of territory in northwest Syria.
According to the UK based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, rebel forces also captured the strategically located town of Tal Rifaat which was jointly controlled by the regime and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. The Kurdish-led Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria declared a general mobilisation in the area it controls in anticipation of further clashes rebel groups.
In his first comments since the offensive commenced, President Assad said the country would “defend its stability and territorial integrity…[and defeat] terrorists and their supporters”.
Russian and Syrian jets have responded by bombing rebel positions.
Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi visited Damascus for talks with senior Syrian government officials and told journalists that Tehran would continue supporting President Assad. Assad also received calls of solidarity from King Abdullah II of Jordan and Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan of the United Arab Emirates.
Dozens of Iranian linked and backed Iraqi militia members from Kataib Hezbollah have reportedly crossed into Syria to fight in support of the regime. While currently small in number, a larger deployment of Iraqi forces is probable and would mirror their earlier involvement in the Syrian Civil War.
In a statement released yesterday, a FCDO spokesperson said “We reiterate our call for a Syrian-led political solution to the conflict. The Assad regime has created the conditions for the current escalation through its ongoing refusal to engage in a political process and its reliance on Russia and Iran. The regime and all actors in Syria’s conflict must support and engage with negotiations as called for in UNSCR 2254.”
That Security Council resolution endorsed a 2015 roadmap for peace in Syria which aspires to see free and fair elections for the Syrian people under UN supervision.

Context: The Syrian Civil War has largely been dormant since a Russian and Turkish brokered ceasefire took hold 2020. Although small-scale clashes have taken place on a regular basis, they have fallen short of any kind of major offensive up until now.

Overall, there are mixed feelings within the Israeli leadership. On the one hand, any weakening of the Syrian regime – that is heavily backed by Hezbollah and Iran – is a positive outcome. However concern exists that the Sunni extremists that threaten the regime could one day also pose a threat to the Israeli border.
With Hezbollah forces now being deployed into Syria to support Assad, this could help preserve the Israeli-Hezbollah ceasefire as it makes Hezbollah less likely to attack Israel. Israeli media quoted intelligence sources saying that “freedom of military operation will apparently widen” as Israel continues to prioritise preventing the transfer of weaponry to Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies from Syria into Lebanon.
However, it also appears that Iran is sending more Shiite proxy fighters to help defend the Syrian regime, giving Israel a dilemma of whether to attack them or not.
There is heightened concern over sensitive sites in the Aleppo area, including chemical weapons, that Israel considers a strategic threat if they were to fall into the hands of Jihadis.
In an interview Israeli Channel 12 News, a senior Syrian rebel officer confirmed that the offensive coincided with last week’s Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire after it was assessed likely that members of the Iran-backed terror group were likely to flee across the border from Lebanon into Syria.
Hezbollah’s significantly weakened state was also likely part of the factoring which resulted in this offensive’s launch.
When the Syrian regime was most threatened by rebel forces during the country’s civil war, a combination of Russian, Iranian, and Hezbollah support effectively guaranteed its survival. However, their positions have been greatly weakened by years of war in Ukraine and recent Israeli military action to the extent they can no longer reliably viewed as the regime’s guarantors.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s successes are also causing a degree of concern given its previous identity as Al Qaeda’s Syrian franchise. Formerly known as “Jabhat al-Nusra” and designated as a terrorist organisation by the United Nations Security Council and Five Eyes intelligence alliance (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States), it is widely viewed as an extremist organisation despite its 2016 demerger from Al Qaeda.
The offensive comes at a time when Assad had slowly begun his rehabilitation and reintegration into the wider Arab world after years of isolation, most notably during a May 2023 Arab League summit in Riyadh where he delivered a much publicised speech.
Syrian-Emirati relations had also been warming since 2018, with Saudi Arabia seemingly at the cusp of reopening their Damascus embassy earlier this year. Whether these attempts will succeed has now been called into question, and will likely largely depend on the Syrian regime’s response to the recent rebel offensive.

Looking ahead: The Iranian Foreign Minister will visit Turkey today for further consultations.

Israel, the UK, and US continue to closely monitor the developing situation.

LATEST

Key background

International efforts to support hostage deal

Netanyahu visits Syrian Hermon

Efforts intensify to reach hostage deal

Israel clarifies position on Syria

Israel claims 80% of Syrian military’s equipment destroyed

Israel moves into demilitarised zone on Golan as Assad regime collapses ​

Israeli concerns as Syrian rebels push south

Renewed cautious optimism for a hostage deal

“Starmer: Iran is a state sponsor of terror”

Israel closely monitoring developments in Syria as rebels make gains

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Israel moves into demilitarised zone on Golan as Assad regime collapses