Israel, the UK and the world

October 27, 2024

Blinken in Israel

Blinken visit: US Secretary of State Blinken was in Israel on Tuesday. He met with Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defence Minister Gantz, President Herzog and families of hostages held in Gaza.

His meeting in Jerusalem with Netanyahu lasted for around two and a half hours, including a one-on-one meeting and a broader conversation with their respective teams. Netanyahu’s office described the meeting as “friendly and productive.”
For Israel the top agenda item remains the ongoing Iranian threat: “The prime minister thanked the American secretary of state for the support of the US in the fight against Iran’s axis of evil and terrorism.”
Regarding Lebanon, Prime Minister Netanyahu highlighted the “need to effect a security and diplomatic change in the north that will enable Israel to return its residents safely to their homes.”
Also yesterday, Hezbollah formally took responsibility for the drone strike on Netanyahu’s home in Caesarea last weekend.
According to the Prime Minister’s Office, “The American Secretary of State expressed the US’s deep shock over the Iranian attempt, via Hezbollah, to eliminate the Prime Minister of Israel, and made it clear that this was an exceptionally extreme incident. The Prime Minister thanked the Secretary of State and said that this is a dramatically significant issue that must not be ignored.”
The pair also discussed the ongoing fighting in Gaza, efforts to reach a hostage deal as the “two sides discussed the issue of the governing framework in Gaza on the day after the war.”
According to the State Department, Blinken spoke of the, “importance of charting a new path forward in the post-conflict period that allows Palestinians to rebuild their lives and provides governance, security, and reconstruction for Gaza. The Secretary emphasised the need for Israel to take additional steps to increase and sustain the flow of humanitarian assistance into Gaza and ensure that assistance reaches civilians throughout Gaza.”
Once more, “The Secretary reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to Israel’s security.”
Later in Tel Aviv, Blinken met with representatives of the seven families of hostages that remain in Gaza with dual US citizenship. According to the families they asked him to, “Apply more pressure on the mediating countries, especially Qatar, to restart negotiations and leverage Sinwar’s elimination into a deal for releasing all hostages.”

Context: This was Blinken’s 11th visit To Israel since the war began and a further example that despite disagreements, the two allies remain closely coordinated on all the major issues on the security and diplomatic agenda.

Regarding the Iran threat, Israeli leaders thanked Secretary Blinken for his support – in particular the deployment of US THAAD missile defence system recently installed in Israel for the first time.
In his meeting with President Herzog, Herzog stressed the northern arena where, “we’ve been constantly attacked for a year already, and definitely in the last few weeks, constantly attacked from Lebanon”, is “why we have to take all the steps possible to eradicate the capabilities of Hezbollah, to move forward in preventing the onslaught against the citizens of Israel, and the cities and towns, their attacks with drones, missiles, rockets, their attack on the private home of the Prime Minister – it’s all part of a major campaign which, at the end of it all is led and commanded in Tehran. And that is why, of course, a major answer has to be made towards Tehran.”
On Gaza, the US sees a new window of opportunity following the death of Hamas leader Sinwar to pursue a hostage deal.
In tandem, the US are keen to increase Humanitarian Aid to assist the civilian population of Gaza.
As part of this effort (and partly in response to the joint letter last week from Secretaries Blinken and Austin), Israel has facilitated the entrance of 237 Humanitarian Aid trucks into northern Gaza in last 9 days.
The decision was apparently criticised by head of the Shin Bet who argued aid should be kept at a level consistent with international law but not beyond that. The concession for increasing aid should be part of the levers used to induce a hostage deal.
There is also ongoing concern that Hamas is still able to take over the aid, syphoning it off to their fighters at the expense of the general population.
Another important component of the conversations are ongoing diplomatic efforts, along with regional Arab allies, for a plan for future governance of the Gaza Strip. Although details have not been released, part of Blinken’s plan is place Gaza under the authority of a temporary caretaker – an international mission. Their role would be to deliver Humanitarian Aid, establish law and order, and lay the groundwork for future governance.

October 18, 2024

PM Starmer – UK ‘will not mourn death of Sinwar’

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has said that the UK would not mourn the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.

In a statement he said that: “As the leader of the terrorist group Hamas, Yahya Sinwar was the mastermind behind the deadliest day in Jewish history since the Holocaust, as 1200 people were slaughtered in Israel.”

The Prime Minister went on to say that his “thoughts are with the families of those victims. The UK will not mourn his death.” PM Starmer then repeated calls for the “release of all hostages, an immediate ceasefire and an increase in Humanitarian Aid are long overdue so we can move towards a long-term, sustainable peace in the Middle East.”

April 21, 2023

Israel deepens ties with two of Iran’s neighbours

Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen visited both Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan this week, in a move to deepen Israel’s growing ties with the Caucasus and Central Asian regions.

Cohen went first to Azerbaijan, where he was accompanied by 20 representatives of the Israeli cyber, defence, homeland security, water management, and agriculture sectors. The delegation met with representatives of both the private and governmental Azeri sectors.
Discussions were also held on connecting Israel’s natural gas deposits to Azerbaijan’s pipeline, increasing the potential for delivery of Israeli gas to Europe.
Azeri officials told Cohen of the country’s desire to expand Israeli imports to include the cyber and solar energy fields. Agreements were also reached which will see the two countries cooperate on space exploration.
After their meeting, Cohen thanked President Ilham Aliyev for the opening of the Azeri embassy in Tel Aviv last month and confirmed that they had discussed “our shared strategic regional challenges, especially regional security and the fight against terrorism.”
Cohen then proceeded to Turkmenistan, becoming the first Israeli Foreign Minister to visit the Central Asian state in 29 years.
Yesterday Cohen formally opened Israel’s first permanent embassy in the capital of Ashgabat, also meeting with President Serdar Berdimuhamedow.
According to the Foreign Ministry, they also discussed expanding cooperation in cyber-tech, agriculture, and water technology.
“Turkmenistan is an extremely important country in Central Asia and an energy powerhouse in a strategic location,” said Cohen. “The opening of our permanent embassy today strengthens the relationship between the two countries.”

Context: Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are of high strategic importance, both for their location and energy resources.

Israeli-Azeri ties have been deepening for some years, Cohen’s visit following the trip made by then Defence Minister Benny Gantz last October.
Azerbaijan has become more publicly open about its ties with Israel in recent years, breaking a tradition of opacity based on a reluctance to antagonise its Iranian neighbour.
In opening its Tel Aviv embassy, and recently appointing its first permanent ambassador, it became the first majority Shiite Muslim state to do so.
Commercial ties between the two countries are mutually significant. Israel imports 30% of its oil from Azerbaijan, while Israel provided 69% of Baku’s major arms imports from 2016-2020: 17% of Israel’s arms exports over the period.
Israel also provided valuable support to the Azeris during the 2020 Second Nagorno-Karabakh War with Armenia, after which Azeri-Iranian tensions increased, with Tehran carrying out provocative military exercises on the Azeri border.
Multiple reports have suggested that the Azeris grant Israel use of its territory for the launching of reconnaissance missions into Iran, and that any future Israeli strike on the Iranian nuclear programme could benefit from a similar Azeri base.
Israel has operated a temporary embassy facility in Turkmenistan for the past ten years.
“This is a visit to the lion’s maw, a country that is between Russia and Iran, and everything that that implies,” said one member of Cohen’s diplomatic party.
Moscow’s influence in Central Asia, which continued to be considerable even following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, has shown signs of decreasing in the last year to eighteen months.
None of the Republics have backed its invasion of Ukraine and all have complied with sanctions on the Putin government.
Turkey, with whom Israel has a complex relationship, is another key regional player, enjoying close linguistic-cultural and political ties with the Central Asian states, coordinating relations through the five-member Organization of Turkic States.
With Europe eager to divest from Russian energy, Turkey is also seen as a key gateway to supplying the continent with both oil and natural gas from alternative sources, including both Israel and Central Asian and Caucus states like Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Any advances to access to the gas pipeline must go through Turkey.
Israel’s desire to supply Europe has been hampered by technical and diplomatic hurdles since the discovery of Israeli gas fields in the Mediterranean
Israel and Turkmenistan established diplomatic relations 30 years ago, and the new embassy is now Israel’s third in Central Asia, joining those in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
The opening of a permanent embassy in Ashgabat is of symbolic importance. Located a mere 15 kilometres from the Iranian border, the new embassy becomes Israel’s closest diplomatic mission to the Islamic Republic.
Notably, ambassadors from other states united by concern over Iran, such as the United Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan and the US, were present at the embassy opening.
Although ties remain stronger with Tehran than they do in Azerbaijan, the last few years have seen Turkmenistan pivot more towards Iran’s rivals in the Gulf States, with several of whom Israel enjoys increasingly close relations.
Turkmenistan is a virtually closed state, regarded by human rights observers as a repressive dictatorship and notable for widescale abuses and corruption.
Like the other Central Asian states, it continues to face the effects of Islamist terror, with a number of its citizens joining both al-Qaeda and Islamic State in recent years.
The return of the Taliban to neighbouring Afghanistan has only heightened concerns about the Jihadi influence, and in December 2022 Israel hosted a delegation from the Central Asian states to share knowledge on border and cyber security.

Looking ahead: In a sign of the high value placed on the Azeri relationship, Israeli President Isaac Herzog is likely to visit Azerbaijan by the end of May, with the Azeri Foreign Minister also likely to make a return visit to Israel soon.

Berdimuhamedov indicated that he was considering following Azerbaijan in ordering the opening of a Turkmenistan embassy in Israel soon.

March 31, 2023

Syria blames Israel for second night of airstrikes

Syrian officials claim that Israeli aircraft attacked a military position just outside Damascus last night.
According to the Syrian military, they responded with anti-aircraft fire that intercepted some of the missiles, fired from the area of the Golan Heights just after midnight.
This is the second night in a row in which there was an attack in the Damascus area.
According to the UK based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the strikes targeted an arms depots for government forces and Iran-backed groups just south of Damascus.
According to Syrian opposition sources, last night’s attack first targeted a radar station and an air defence system in the Damascus area, before striking a “moving target” that was part of a convoy that was travelling towards the “security complex” in Kafr Sousa.
The Syrian foreign ministry condemned the attack and claimed this was Israel’s “attempt to escape internal fragmentation.”

According to Syrian sources this was the sixth Israeli strike on Syria this month.

As usual, Israel has not commented on these attacks. Israel does not formally claim every alleged strike but has acknowledged in the past that it carried out hundreds of strikes on military targets over the last few years in Syria.
On March 22, an Israeli strike targeted the airport in Aleppo, thought to have been used by Iran for storing weapons.
In response Iranian backed militias fired rockets at a base hosting US forces in northeast Syria, killing one American contractor. The US responded with air strikes on installations in eastern Syria that it said were affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The Kafr Sousa security complex was also targeted last month. It is considered an Iranian hub that serves as an Iranian barracks and headquarters.
In December 2022, then IDF Chief of Staff Kochavi revealed details of an Israeli strike on a specific truck in a convoy that was smuggling weapons and was targeted near the Iraq-Syria border.

Broader context: These strikes are the latest example of Israel’s continued doctrine of the ‘campaign between the wars’ aimed at thwarting Iranian weapons transfers and the entrenchment of pro-Iranian militias in Syria.

These operations are usually approved by the defence minister, who currently continues to serve under a cloud of ambiguity. Defence Minister Gallant was fired by Prime Minister Netanyahu at the beginning of the week, however was never sent a formal dismissal letter in writing, so continues to serve. There are suggestions that he will apologise to the prime minister for calling for a halt on the judicial reform at a time when the prime minister was abroad, and will then have his dismissal revoked.
Gallant, a former Maj. Gen., enjoys the support not only of the senior military commanders, but was also regarded as a trusted figure by the US administration.
The continued Israeli air force operations over the skies of Syria further highlight the crucial role of pilots, amid some of their vocal concerns over judicial reform.
Israel–US ties have been in focus the last couple of days following comments by President Biden who expressed his displeasure at the proposed judicial reforms.
Nevertheless, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen spoke on the phone last night. Among the issues discussed was the Iranian threat.
Blinken also “reiterated the continued US commitment to a two-state solution, welcomed recent efforts to de-escalate tensions between Israelis and Palestinians through meetings in Aqaba and Sharm el-Sheikh.”

Israeli targeting of Iranian assets in Syria is likely to continue, according to military intelligence’s risk assessment.

Today is the second Friday of Ramadan, which has so far been relatively quiet, but Israeli security forces remain on high alert over warnings of potential attacks.

March 22, 2023

Uk and Israel sign new 7 year agreement

Israel’s Foreign Minister Eli Cohen visited London yesterday and alongside Foreign Secretary James Cleverly they signed, “the 2030 Roadmap for Israel-UK Bilateral Relations.”

According to the UK government, “the Roadmap contains detailed commitments for deepening cooperation across the breadth of the Israel-UK relationship, including on trade, cyber, science and tech, research and development, security, health, climate and gender.”
The agreement also includes around £20millon of joint funding commitments on technology and innovation.
The UK also “committed to working closely with Israel to tackle the scourge of antisemitism. As chair for the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance in 2024, the UK will promote fact-based knowledge of the Holocaust and strengthen media and information literacy.”
Ahead of the visit Foreign Secretary Cleverly said, “The UK-Israel relationship has already delivered huge benefits to both economies. Our trade relationship is worth around £7 billion, and there are more than 400 Israeli tech firms operating in the UK. Israeli investment into the UK drives growth and jobs, adding around £1 billion gross value to the UK economy and creating about 16,000 jobs in the last 8 years.”
In their private meeting the pair discussed the dual threats of Iran’s nuclear programme and their destabilising regional aggression. According to the UK government, “On Iran, the Foreign Ministers discussed deepening our security and defence co-operation to counter the threat posed by the regime.”
Ahead of Ramadan, and regarding Jerusalem, “the Foreign Ministers agreed on the importance of upholding the historic Status Quo of the holy sites in Jerusalem.”
Regarding Russia, Cleverly “stressed the importance of accelerating efforts to ensure Ukraine wins this war and secures a lasting peace.”
Minister Cohen said, “the international community must unite against the Iranian threat, increase sanctions, and present a viable military threat.”
Cohen also participated in a memorial ceremony alongside Lord Tariq Ahmed, the Minister for Middle East Affairs to mark the 20th anniversary of the death of the late Ambassador Shlomo Argov. He was seriously injured in a terrorist attack while serving as Israel’s ambassador to the UK in 1982.
The genesis of the roadmap was in November 2021 when Foreign Minister Lapid visited London and met with Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Foreign Minister Liz Truss.
At the time Foreign Ministers Lapid and Truss co-wrote an op-ed in The Telegraph where they declared that Israel and the UK would sign a major new agreement, “transforming our close friendship into an even closer partnership by formally agreeing a new strategic plan for the next decade spanning cyber, tech, trade and defence”. In addition, “Israel will officially become a Tier One cyber partner for the UK, recognising how much more we can achieve together as tech leaders with world-class cybersecurity expertise.”
With regard to Iran, the pair wrote: “We will also work night and day to prevent the Iranian regime from ever becoming a nuclear power. The clock is ticking, which heightens the need for close cooperation with our partners and friends to thwart Tehran’s ambitions.”
Israel and the UK had already planned to host reciprocal prime ministerial visits to mark Israel’s 75^th anniversary. Prime Minister Netanyahu is also due to visit London and meet Prime Minister Sunak this week.
Netanyahu’s visit to London will complete a series of European capitals having visited Paris, Berlin and Italy in the last month, with the Iranian threat being his top priority.
In parallel to the visit the UK yesterday announced sanctions on seven senior officials of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Five responsible for managing the IRGC’s investments and two senior commanders.
The UK government confirmed it has “sanctions in place on the IRGC in its entirety. Since October, the UK has imposed new sanctions on more than a dozen senior IRGC officials under our Iran human rights regime, most recently on a number of senior commanders on 20 February.”
Foreign Secretary Cleverly explained, they were “responsible for funding militant groups associated with the IRGC’s external operations arm, the IRGC-Quds Force. The Quds force is responsible for carrying out lethal activities outside of Iran by, for example, providing training, funding and weapons to groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas. It has been accused of setting up fake companies in Syria to support the development of Quds Force activities in Syria.”
In light of the domestic turbulence, it is expected that Netanyahu will be greeted by protestors against the judicial reform.
In the months ahead Prime Minister Sunak it is anticipated to make a reciprocal visit to Israel.
Later this year Israel and the UK are expected to conclude a new upgraded free trade agreement, focus on tech and innovation. Cleverly said yesterday, “The new trade deal, by lowering barriers and championing free trade, is a key priority for both governments.”

March 20, 2023

Talks in Sharm, another shooting in Hawara

Officials from Israel, Palestinian Authority (PA), Egypt, Jordan and the US met in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh on Sunday.

Israel was represented on a professional level by the Director of the Shin Bet Security Service Ronen Bar and on a political level by the head of the National Security Council Tzachi Hanegbi.
The Palestinian delegation was led by PA Civil Affairs Minister Hussein al-Sheikh and head of Intelligence Majed Faraj.
Middle East adviser Brett McGurk represented the US alongside the foreign ministers of Jordan and Egypt.
According to Israeli media reports the Israeli delegation stressed the need to take uncompromising action against terrorism in order to prevent any escalation during and after Ramadan.
Israel and the PA reaffirmed their shared commitment to immediately refrain from taking unilateral action for a period of between three and six months. That includes an Israeli commitment to stop any discussion about building new housing units in the settlements for a four-month period, and to stop recognising unauthorised outposts for six months.
Efforts were also made to find a mechanism for Israel and the PA to cooperate and avoid any further deterioration in security for both Israelis and Palestinians.
The sides also agreed to establish a forum that would discuss Palestinian demands to receive tax funds that Israel has withheld after deducting the equivalent of terrorists’ salaries.
Meanwhile yesterday in Hawara a terrorist opened fire from point blank range at an Israeli car and injured a 30-year-old Israeli man alongside his wife.
The driver, David Stern, a resident of nearby Itamar settlement, who trains the security teams in the area, is also a US citizen and an ex-Marine. He managed to return fire and injure the terrorist, who dropped his gun and fled.
The injured terrorist was later found by IDF forces and taken for questioning.
On Saturday night a single rocket was fired from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory. It fell in uninhabited territory close to the border and no one was injured. The IDF retaliated by shelling a Hamas military outpost.
Also over the weekend a senior member of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) was assassinated near his home in Damascus. Ali Ramzi Al-Aswad was a senior engineer in the PIJ military wing. Israel was blamed for his death.

This meeting in Sharm was the second regional summit focusing on Israeli – Palestinian arena following Aqaba conference at the end of February.

There remains a shared Israeli – PA agenda to deescalate the situation in the West Bank and on the Israeli side.
From the Palestinian perspective the purpose of the summit was to address their security concerns particularly related to limiting IDF incursions into Palestinian cities during Ramadan.
The Israelis are keen to fully re-establish security coordination with the PA Security Forces (PASF) and for the PASF to reassert themselves as they have recently begun to do in Nablus.
The US are also keen to see calm in the West Bank and thought to encourage Israel to take confidence building measures to improve economic conditions in the West Bank.
It is possible that the PIJ operative targeted in Damascus built the bomb that exploded in Megiddo junction last week.
Meanwhile over the weekend PIJ leader Ziyad al-Nakhalah met with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut. This meeting suggests further evidence of Iranian support via Hezbollah for Palestinian terror groups.
The rocket fired on Saturday night was the first in eleven days. Already this year thirty-six rockets have been fired from Gaza Strip towards Israel. Most have occurred following Palestinian fatalities as a result of an Israeli counter-terror operation in the West Bank.
In parallel, the Jerusalem municipality announced steps to help East Jerusalemites celebrate Ramadan. Street decorations can already be seen in the eastern part of the city, The municipality has also distributed food vouchers for the poor and deployed extra street cleaning. They are planning to hold several sporting and cultural activities to keep youngsters engaged over the holiday.

IDF troops in the West Bank have completed their training and preparation ahead of Ramadan.

They remain on high alert, particularly in Hawara so as to prevent any vigilante responses from settlers.
Whilst the IDF remain on alert for potential attacks they will also be taking measures to facilitate freedom of worship for Palestinians to visit Al-Aqsa on the Temple Mount.
The agreements reached in Sharm are aimed at securing quiet in the months ahead.

February 17, 2023

Israeli Foreign Minister visits Ukraine

Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen pledged Israeli loan guarantees and defence assistance to Ukraine during a visit to Kyiv yesterday.

Cohen met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba before later meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky.
In remarks delivered alongside Kuleba, Cohen said “Israel, as stated in the past, stands firmly in solidarity with the people of Ukraine.”
Cohen promised to “assist Ukraine with developing a smart early warning system” similar to that which warns Israelis of incoming rocket fire.
He also pledged $200 million in loan guarantees for healthcare and civilian infrastructure projects in Ukraine.
In his remarks, Kuleba struck a cautious tone, saying “Israel knows perfectly about our list of security and defence needs. We will be waiting for decisions to be taken.”
In their meeting, Zelensky told Cohen that Iran was a “common enemy”, while Cohen assured the Ukrainian President that Israel “supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.”
Together with Israel’s ambassador to Ukraine Michael Brodksy, Cohen also reopened the Israeli embassy in Kyiv.
Having left a one-day visit to earthquake-hit Turkey, Cohen travelled to Poland, before taking an overnight train from the border city of Przemysl to Kyiv.
He began his Ukrainian itinerary in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha, the site of extensive civilian deaths from Russian shelling, where he said “We can say clearly, it is impossible to remain indifferent to the scenes and mass grave that we have seen.”
Cohen then proceeded to Babyn Yar, the ravine outside Kyiv where the Nazis and Ukrainian collaborators murdered over 30,000 across several days in 1941. Kaddish was recited and Hatikvah was sung.
Cohen is the first Israeli government minister to visit Ukraine since the Russian invasion.
For security reasons, his visit was not announced in advance, though it has been known for several weeks that such a trip was planned. He was joined in Ukraine by Foreign Ministry Director General Ronen Levy (formerly codenamed “Maoz”) and Simona Halperin, head of the ministry’s Eurasia desk.
Cohen’s warning system pledge is the clearest commitment yet from Israel that it will publicly move towards security assistance to Ukraine.
Despite condemning Russian aggression, Israel has been reluctant to accede to requests for military support from Ukraine and its Western allies.
To do so would risk damaging the deconfliction status quo that exists with Russia, with tacit Russian agreement essential in maintaining Israel’s ability to strike Iranian-sponsored terrorist targets in Syria.
On assuming office in January, Cohen angered Ukrainians and some allies by promising to “speak less” about the Russian invasion than the previous Bennett-Lapid government had done, and by holding a discussion with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov before speaking with any Ukrainian officials.
In recent weeks, reports anticipating Cohen’s visit have suggested that Zelensky had sought assurances that practical assistance would be forthcoming before agreeing to receive the Israeli Foreign Minister.
In addition to a request for $500 million in loans and its oft-repeated requests for missile defence sharing, Kyiv was said to be seeking public support for Zelensky’s November 2022 Peace Plan, including its demand for full Russian withdrawal, and an Israeli commitment to receive increased numbers of Ukrainian injured for medical treatment in Israel.
On Twitter, Cohen indicated that Israel would support Ukrainian UN peace proposals designed to ensure Ukraine’s “sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity.”
Washington has been encouraging Israel to step up its involvement. During his visit to Israel in early February, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken urged greater Israeli security assistance to Ukraine.
In remarks to CNN immediately after Blinken’s departure, Netanyahu claimed to be “certainly looking into” military support, and highlighted Israeli cooperation in transferring what will eventually total 300,000 US 155-millimeter shells long stored in Israel to Ukraine.
Reports on Netanyahu’s meeting with French President Macron in Paris in early February 2023 then indicated that the Israeli Prime Minister had hinted at a willingness to expand Israel’s aid to Ukraine to include “military things”.
Hundreds of Iranian drones, including both Mohajer-6 and Shahed-series, have been deployed against Ukraine since Iranian transfers to Russia began last summer.
In November, Israel shared with NATO an intelligence dossier on Iranian drones.
Further, while Israeli sources were quick to separate last month’s Mossad deployment of quadcopter drones against the Iranian weapons facility in Isfahan from the Russia-Ukraine context, Kyiv might benefit from any reduction in Iranian capacity.
Israel, with its line of communication to both Kyiv and Moscow, has previously played the role of intermediary passing on messages between the leaders in full coordination with the US.
At the onset of the conflict, then-Prime Minister Naftali Bennett engaged in discussion with both Putin and Zelensky including, he claimed recently, receiving Putin’s assurances that he would not order the killing of Zelensky.
Netanyahu recently declared himself open to playing an intermediary role but suggested that the time was not right at present.

With Russian-Iranian cooperation expected to grow, Israel will be further incentivised to assist Ukraine.

The extent to which Cohen’s commitments represent a shift in the Israeli calculus, though, remains to be seen. The promise of an early warning system is still short of the Israeli missile defence technology Ukraine covets.
Cohen also pledged Israeli assistance in post-war reconstruction.

February 3, 2023

Netanyahu meets Chad President

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met yesterday with the visiting President Mahamat Déby of Chad to formalise the two countries’ official relations by consecrating the African state’s new Ramat Gan-based embassy.

Netanyahu welcomed Déby by hailing the process as part of “Israel’s return to Africa and Africa’s return to Israel”. He noted: “We see these relations as extremely important—with a large country in the heart of Africa” and that “we have common goals of security, prosperity, and stability.”
On arrival in Israel on Tuesday night, Déby was met by Mossad chief David Barnea. The two went on to a celebratory meeting at Mossad headquarters.
In his own meeting with Déby, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant “raised the importance of narrowing the influence of Iran and Hezbollah in the Sahel region, as a key to ensuring stability, and thwarting the export of terrorism.”
Déby also met with Foreign Minister Eli Cohen, with the two discussing Israel’s humanitarian work in Chad, including the Mashav programme which trains Chadian medics in emergency and trauma care.
In a further step towards normalisation with a Muslim-majority African state, Foreign Minister Eli Cohen met with Sudanese leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in Khartoum yesterday, and confirmed on his return that a full peace treaty was scheduled to be signed by the end of the year, once Sudan has transitioned from a military to a civilian regime.
“Today’s visit… lays the foundations for a historic peace agreement with a strategic Arab and Muslim country” and “will promote regional stability and contribute to the national security of the State of Israel,” Cohen said.

The Chadian and Sudanese moves represent a success for Netanyahu’s longstanding campaign for improved relations with both Muslim-majority and African states.

In 2016, Netanyahu became the first Israeli Prime Minister to make a diplomatic trip to Africa in decades, as he visited Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda and Ethiopia. Later that year, Israel hosted senior ministers and officials from 13 West African states for a conference on agriculture.
In July 2021, former Chadian Prime Minister Moussa Faki Mahamat invited Israel to hold member status at the African Union, a move later revoked in a campaign led by Algeria and South Africa.
Both Netanyahu and Déby paid tribute to the latter’s father, Idriss Déby Into, who ruled Chad for more than thirty years before being killed fighting rebels in 2021.
The elder Déby had initiated the move to fully normalise Chadian relations with Israel in 2019, following decades of clandestine cooperation but official distance. In November 2018, he paid a surprise visit to Israel.
As one of the more militarily powerful members of the G5S states (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger), Chad bears much of the burden in stemming terrorism in the sub-Saharan Sahel region- a role for which it has sought Israeli support.
In 2018, Morocco (which normalised relations with Israel with the Abraham Accords in 2020) cut diplomatic ties with Iran, accusing it of using Hezbollah forces in the Sahel to support the Polisario Front group which fights an armed struggle for an independent Western Sahara.
Israel has no embassy in Chad, and it remains to seen if this will change or if relations will continue to be handled by Ben Bourgel, Israel’s ambassador in Senegal, who presented his diplomatic credentials to Déby last year and whose brief also includes Guinea and The Gambia.
In addition to cooperation on security, trade, and agriculture, as well as support in international bodies, normalisation with Chad would provide the potential for use of its airspace and ground facilities. This would allow flight times between Israel and South America to be reduced by several hours.
Channel 12, meanwhile, reports a likely connection between the Chadian and Sudanese processes, with al-Burhan and his deputy, Mohamed Hamdan Daklo, having visited Chad earlier this week.
The Sudanese move to resume the normalisation process follows its suspension after a military coup removed the previous regime in 2021.
Sudan became the fourth state to sign normalisation agreements with Israel in October 2020, as part of the Abraham Accords and in return for removal from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism.
In May 2022, in the wake of the coup, the Biden Administration announced that it was cancelling aid to Sudan, including that related to the Abraham Accords.
Despite this move, the current process to finalise normalisation upon Sudan’s transition to a civilian regime appears to have been encouraged by the US, and a subject of discussion during Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s recent visit to Israel.
Cohen previously visited Sudan in January 2021, when intelligence minister in the Netanyahu-Gantz government, while Israeli-Sudanese relations has been a key project for Ronen Levy (codenamed Maoz), the new Director General of the Foreign Ministry.
Cohen noted that the peace deal with Sudan would allows Sudanese residents of Israel to return to the country.
Sudan was, for decades, a key part of the wider Muslim world’s hostility to Israel. In 1967, it hosted the Arab League’s notorious Khartoum Conference at which the “three nos” – to peace, to recognition, and to negotiation – were adopted.
From the late 1970s, it became a refuge for Palestinian militants and a sponsor of Palestinian terror, particularly Hamas. In 2012, Israel carried out a missile strike on a Khartoum weapons factory it alleged was supplying Palestinian groups.
Between the late 1980s and the mid 2010s, Sudan also enjoyed warm relations with Iran. From 2014, however, it moved away from Tehran’s orbit and towards that of Iran’s enemy in Saudi Arabia.
The fall of its long-time dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019 saw fears that Iran might exploit the vacuum to reintroduce partnership, but such proved not to be the case, and normalisation will see Sudan join Chad in seeking mutual anti-terror cooperation with Israel.
Both Chad and Sudan continue to face criticism for their human rights records.

Israeli officials are briefing that the Chadian and Sudanese agreements might soon be followed by other normalisation deals with Mauritania and Indonesia.

Netanyahu is likely to pursue the extension of the Abraham Accords to include other Middle Eastern states, with Saudi Arabia representing the ultimate prize.

LATEST

Key background

Netanyahu congratulates Trump on election

Herzog meets British hostage mother

Blinken in Israel

PM Starmer – UK ‘will not mourn death of Sinwar’

Israel deepens ties with two of Iran’s neighbours

Syria blames Israel for second night of airstrikes

Uk and Israel sign new 7 year agreement

Talks in Sharm, another shooting in Hawara

Israeli Foreign Minister visits Ukraine

Netanyahu meets Chad President

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