What’s happened: Prime Minister Keir Starmer welcomed Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to No 10 Downing yesterday, ahead of the Government’s anticipated recognition of a Palestinian state. Abbas was recently denied a US visa to attend the United Nations General Assembly. According to a statement released by the Prime Minister’s Office, Starmer and Abbas “both agreed there will be absolutely no role for Hamas in the future governance of Palestine.”

• In a letter sent to Sarah Champion, chair of the international development committee, Foreign Secretary David Lammy wrote that the UK Government had determined that Israel was not committing genocide in Gaza.
• The letter was sent by Lammy just before he left the position of Foreign Secretary. Previously, Lammy and other British officials had taken the position that the Government could not make such a determination absent a judicial ruling from the ICJ. But in the letter, Lammy asserted that “the crime of genocide occurs only where there is specific ‘intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial or religious group’. The government has not concluded that Israel is acting with that intent.”
• Six people were killed and at least seven others seriously wounded in yesterday’s shooting attack in Jerusalem. The dead were named as Levi Yitzhak Pash, 57, Yaakov Pinto, 25, Yisrael Matzner, 28, Rabbi Yosef David, 43, Rabbi Mordechai Steintzag, 79, and Sarah Mendelson, 60. The Palestinian gunmen, men in their twenties from an area of the West Bank just northwest of Jerusalem, were killed by an off-duty soldier, ending the shooting rampage.
• Four IDF soldiers were killed yesterday when Hamas gunmen opened fire on an IDF Armored Corps position in Jabaliya in the northern Gaza Strip and hurled an explosive device into their tank. They were named as First Sgt. Uri Lamed, 20, Sgt. Gadi Kotal, 20, Lt. Matan Abramovitz, 21, and Sgt. Amit Aryeh Regev, 19. A fifth soldier was injured in the attack. 904 IDF soldiers have fallen since the war began on October 7, 2023, 54 of them since the last ceasefire ended in March of this year.
• This morning, the IDF’s Arabic-language spokesperson announced a broad evacuation order for Gaza City. “The IDF is determined to defeat Hamas and will operate in the Gaza City area with great force, just as it has throughout the strip,” the announcement said. It also contained a phone number to report any Hamas roadblocks preventing people from evacuating.

Context: The Israeli offensive into Gaza City has focused over the last two days on high-rise buildings used by Hamas. At least five have been destroyed after specific evacuation warnings by the IDF. There were no reports of casualties from the strikes, images of which were widely posted and shared.

• Referring to the downed towers yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “All this is just the prelude for the main intensive operation and that is a ground maneuver by our troops, who are now organising, for inside Gaza City. And that is why I am telling Gaza’s residents: I am using this opportunity and listen to me well. You have been warned. Leave.”
• Writing in Israel Hayom, Yoav Limor reports that thus far only about 10% of Gaza City’s residents have evacuated. He further notes that in the last major operation in Gaza City, in November 2023, the IDF lost 122 soldiers. This was in a less extensive battle than the one planned for now, and in a city that had been thoroughly evacuated in the first dramatic weeks of the war following the October 7 attacks.
• With an Israeli ground offensive imminent, a last-ditch effort to reach a diplomatic agreement is also underway. The Trump administration’s new proposal would see an immediate release of all remaining Israeli hostages on the first day in exchange for thousands of Palestinian security prisoners held by Israel. A ceasefire would be guaranteed by the United States for as long as negotiations were ongoing for an end to the war.
• President Trump posted on social media that “the Israelis have accepted my Terms. It is time for Hamas to accept as well.” He added,  “I have warned Hamas about the consequences of not accepting. This is my last warning, there will not be another one!”
• Hamas has not given a definitive response to the Trump proposal. Sources close to Hamas report that the organisation believes it is logistically impossible to free all hostages on the first day of the ceasefire, though it appears that much of the apparent difficulty relates to the challenge of extricating the bodies of dead hostages more than to liberating the living ones.
• Channel 12 news reports that Israel assesses that there will be internal disagreement among the Hamas leadership over the question of whether it can accept Trump’s conditions. Even if the answer is affirmative, the question is whether it can trust the American guarantees and to hold negotiations in practice on the basis of these principles.
• According to a report on Kan radio, officials in Jerusalem believe Hamas will likely reject the American proposal, and that this will pave the way for Israel’s anticipated operation in Gaza City.

Looking ahead: President Isaac Herzog will be in London this week to “show solidarity with the Jewish community, which is under severe attack and facing a wave of antisemitism.” He is scheduled to meet with Prime Minister Starmer on Wednesday and likely to meet Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper as well.

What’s happened: President Trump has reportedly passed a new proposal for a comprehensive hostage and ceasefire deal to Hamas’s leadership. 

• Trump wrote on Truth Social, “Everyone wants the Hostages HOME. Everyone wants this War to end! The Israelis have accepted my Terms. It is time for Hamas to accept as well. I have warned Hamas about the consequences of not accepting. This is my last warning, there will not be another one!”
• According to the new plan:
  • All 48 living and dead hostages are to be released on the first day of the deal, in return Israel will simultaneously release hundreds of terrorists and thousands of Palestinian detainees.
  • Israel will halt Operation Gideon’s Chariots II and the takeover over of Gaza City. 
  • Negotiations will begin immediately to end the war, personally overseen by President Trump. 
  • The fighting will not be renewed as long as the negotiations remain ongoing. 
• While according to Trump, Israel has accepted his terms, Hamas released a statement saying it, “received, through mediators, some ideas from the American side to reach a ceasefire agreement. Accordingly, Hamas welcomes any move that will assist in the efforts to halt the aggression against our people. Hamas affirms its readiness to immediately sit at the negotiating table to discuss the release of all prisoners in exchange for a clear declaration of an end to the war, a full withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, and the formation of a committee to administer the Gaza Strip from independent Palestinians, which will assume its duties immediately.”
• The Hostage and Missing Families Forum issued a statement noting, “The provision of the US president’s personal guarantee is an historic development of the utmost importance. We call on the Israeli government to announce its unreserved support for the emerging agreement.”

Context: The support from President Trump has been a crucial factor in Israel’s continued military campaign. His direct involvement in this latest proposal could force the hands of all parties and bring the war to an end. 

• Meanwhile the fighting in Gaza City intensified over the weekend with preliminary bombings of high-rise buildings. The airstrikes focused on hundreds of surveillance cameras and anti-tank firing positions, and sniping positions on the upper floors of high-rises of buildings in the centre and west of the city.
• As ever, the IDF highlighted, “Prior to the strike, steps were taken in order to mitigate harm to civilians, including advanced warnings to the population, the use of precise munitions, aerial surveillance, and additional intelligence.”
• Despite almost two years of fighting, it is understood that Hamas still possesses a variety of military surveillance technologies.
• A secondary objective of targeting the high rise buildings (deliberately in broad daylight), is to encourage the civilian population to leave the city. In line with this, according to the IDF they have now set up a new “displaced persons city” near Khan Yunis, with “water, food and medical infrastructure.” 
• In the latest assessment, the takeover of the city itself will not take more than a couple of weeks. However, the IDF has continued to warn that the whole operation could take a year. This is primarily due to the large network of tunnels remaining underneath Gaza City, as well as the presence of hostages who are still alive in them. 
• It is estimated that 10,000 armed operatives are currently inside Gaza City, but as in the past many or even most are expected to flee the area along with the civilian population.  Due to the scale, it is not feasible for the IDF to screen everyone leaving.
• In light of these challenges, military analysts suggest that Hamas cannot be destroyed in this operation, and the goal is to degrade the terrorist infrastructure used by the Gaza City Brigade.
• However, one of the IDF’s main targets will be Hamas’s current leader in Gaza City, Izz al-Din Haddad who commands the city’s brigade. According to military assessments, he has restored much of its command-and-control capabilities over the past year. Hamas’ centre of power consists of a network of tunnels is located in western Gaza City. It was partly damaged during the December 2023 ground operation, but has since been repaired.
• Whilst the IDF prepares to operate with a massive force deployment in to the city, there is concern that Hamas may choose to attack troops manning static positions along the recently established corridors in southern Gaza, as happened during Hamas’s multi-pronged attack two weeks ago. Similarly there could be attacks along the buffer zone set up adjacent to Israeli communities as there are likely still tunnels in the proximity. 
• According to reports out of Gaza, the terrorist Mahmoud Afana was eliminated in an IDF strike. Afana participated in the October 7 massacre and in a phone call he placed from Kibbutz Mefalsim boasted to his family that he had personally murdered ten Israelis. That call was recorded, and subsequently shared as evidence.    
• Israel maintains residual concern that whilst Hamas might accept a new technocratic leadership of the Strip, a scenario in which it is allowed to maintain its weapons and military wing, they will seek a Hezbollah style model of operating a terrorist army under a weak political framework.     
• Alongside the fighting, Israeli continues to facilitate aid into Gaza. According to the IDF, “Over the past week, close to 1,900 trucks were collected and distributed this week from the Gazan side of the Kerem Shalom and Zikim Crossings. Over 1,500 humanitarian aid trucks primarily containing food, entered through the crossings this week.” 

Looking ahead: President Herzog will arrive in London later this week to meet with senior representatives of the government. 

• The timing, ahead of the UN General Assembly, and the UK’s anticipated announcement to recognise a Palestinian state, is aimed at maintaining the close Britain – Israel relationship at this sensitive time.
• According to the President’s office, “The purpose of the visit is to show solidarity with the Jewish community, which is under severe attack and facing a wave of antisemitism.” 

What’s happened: Emergency call up orders began to go into effect yesterday with 40,000 reservist soldiers mobilised. This is taking place as the IDF prepares to embark on a broad offensive operation into Gaza City.

• Most reservists are not likely to enter Gaza. They are, rather, relieving soldiers in the West Bank and on the northern border who are slated to be a part of the upcoming operation, which will involve five divisions.
• The Israeli government’s public position remains that only a comprehensive deal that would release all hostages could avert the operation. A stormy cabinet session was held on Sunday regarding the war in Gaza. Ministers did not vote on the ceasefire deal on the table, though Hamas appears to have accepted it. This deal would include a 60-day ceasefire and a partial release of the remaining hostages.
• Belgium announced that it would recognise a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly later this month. Foreign Minister Maxime Prevot also announced 12 “firm sanctions” against Israel, including a ban on importing products from settlement. Prevot’s announcement stipulated that the “administrative formalisation of this recognition” would only take effect “when the last hostage is released.”
• Foreign Secretary David Lammy reiterated his commitment to recognise a Palestinian state “unless the Israeli Government takes substantive steps to end the appalling situation in Gaza and commits to a long-term sustainable peace.” He added, “To those who say recognition rewards Hamas or threatens Israeli security – it does neither,” without explaining how this was the case. 
• Alluding to the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, Lammy said that “words of condemnation… are not enough. But be in no doubt: we have acted, as a country, where we can.” He went on to list  actions taken by the Government: “We restored funding to UNRWA. We suspended arms exports that could be used in Gaza. We signed a landmark agreement with the Palestinian Authority. We stood up for the independence of international courts. We have delivered three sanctions packages, three, on violent settlers and far-right Israeli Ministers for incitement. We suspended trade negotiations with the Israeli Government. We are at the forefront of the international community’s work to plan for a stable, post-conflict peace. And we have provided nearly over £250m in development assistance over the past two years.”
• None of this actions mentioned by Lammy is putting any  pressure on Hamas to release the hostages  or  exerting diplomatic pressure for the October 7 attacks. Nor did he mention any action relating to states, allied with Britain, that harbour leading Hamas figures, such as Qatar or Turkey.
• Lammy also announced the triggering of the “snapback” procedure for sanctions against Iran. These will go into effect in 30 days barring some diplomatic breakthrough with Iran.
• 320 trucks of humanitarian aid crossed from Israel into Gaza yesterday through crossings at Kerem Shalom in the southern Gaza Strip and Zikim in the north. COGAT reports that 350 trucks were collected and distributed by aid organisations yesterday, as opposed to 170 the day before, with hundreds more still waiting on the Gaza side of the border for collection. 

Cabinet leaks: Multiple Israeli media outlets gave detailed reports of a stormy cabinet meeting on Sunday evening, all based on anonymous leaks.

• It is understood that the heads of the IDF, National Security Council, Mossad, and Shin Bet strongly support accepting the ceasefire deal which would see the release of 10 out of 20 living Israeli hostages and a 60 day pause in fighting. The Prime Minister and most of the cabinet oppose this. All four men are Netanyahu appointees. The security chiefs all expressed severe doubts about the planned military offensive into Gaza City.
• The IDF estimates around 100 fatalities to its forces in an operation to conquer Gaza City in an operation that could take as long as a year to complete successfully. Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir told the Government that such an operation would necessarily mean a military government in Gaza, with all the attendant legal and operational obligations that would entail. Israel would be directly responsible for the welfare of Gazans in territory its forces occupy in a way it has not been since 1994. And its soldiers would be constant targets of guerrilla attacks.
• Mossad Director David Barnea spoke out more forcefully than in the past in favour of the current ceasefire deal. He was quoted in television reports as saying, “That’s the proposal that is on the table, and we need to take it.”
• Most of the media attention, however, focused on Zamir, with many harsh and pointed statements attributed to him or to his critics. Orit Struck, one of the most far-right figures in the Cabinet, obliquely referred to Zamir with a Mishnaic reference to “the man who fears and is soft-hearted.” Zamir responded to her, “I came to carry out two of my life’s missions: to prevent nuclear [weapons] in Iran and to destroy Hamas. Every morning I approve attacks everywhere. No one is soft of heart. If you want blind obedience, get someone else.”
• Confronted by the Cabinet Secretary with Ministers’ demands to defeat Hamas, Zamir responded with a sarcastic Hebrew phrase that can be translated as “you don’t say?” or “good morning sunshine!” and added, “you were the security cabinet on October 7. Now you’ve remembered to talk about defeating Hamas?”
• Various reports in the Hebrew press referenced Cabinet ministers who dissented from the majority position and preferred taking the ceasefire deal and partial hostage release now rather than embarking on the new offensive into Gaza City. Most reports mentioned Foreign Minister Gidon Saar as one of the opponents of the new operation, with concerns about Israel’s diplomatic position at the upcoming UN General Assembly attributed to him. 

Looking ahead: In preparing a response to the upcoming announcements of recognition of a Palestinian state by France, Britain, Canada, and others, Prime Minister Netanyahu will convene a consultation on annexing parts of the West Bank.

• The cabinet are expected to explore various proposals, including annexation of settlement blocs, of Areas C, or of the Jordan Valley. An initiative to annex the Jordan Valley was stopped in its tracks in 2020 by the announcement of normalisation agreements with Bahrain and the UAE.
• The Jordan Valley stretches from the Sea of Galilee to the Dead Sea, forming a natural border between the West Bank and Jordan. It is sparsely populated and serves as a vital buffer zone and holds strategic significance for Israel’s security.

What’s happened: The UK Government announced that it will recognise a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly in September unless Israel fulfils a list of conditions to ameliorate the situation in Gaza. Malta joined the UK announcement, and several other states, including Australia and New Zealand, indicated they might be inclined to join the initiative.

• Speaking from Downing Street, Prime Minister Starmer said, “We are determined to protect the viability of the two-state solution, and so we will recognise the state of Palestine in September before UNGA; unless the Israeli government takes substantive steps to end the appalling situation in Gaza and commits to a long term sustainable peace, including through allowing the UN to restart without delay the supply of humanitarian support to the people of Gaza to end starvation, agreeing to a ceasefire, and making clear there will be no annexations in the West Bank. We will make an assessment ahead of UNGA on how far the parties have met these steps. No one side will have a veto on recognition through their actions or inactions.”
• At the United Nations, Foreign Secretary Lammy echoed the Prime Minister’s statement, including the conditions: “We will do it unless the Israeli government acts to end the appalling situation in Gaza, ends its military campaign and commits to a long-term sustainable peace based on a two-state solution.”
• Both Starmer and Lammy demanded that Hamas release hostages, cease fire, and have no role in the future governance of Gaza, but neither made acceding to these demands a condition for recognition or, for that matter, any British policy move.
• French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot praised the British announcement, saying “Together, through this momentous decision and our joint efforts, we are ending the infinite cycle of violence and re-opening the prospect of peace in the region.” It remains to be seen if indeed this decision has in fact ended the cycle of violence.
• The Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the decision “constitutes a reward for Hamas and harms efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza and a framework for the release of the hostages.” Prime Minister Netanyahu posted on social media that “Starmer rewards Hamas’s monstrous terrorism & punishes its victims,” adding that “A jihadist state on Israel’s border TODAY will threaten Britain TOMORROW.” 
• Opposition Leader Yair Lapid was more concerned with the lack of seriousness in the French and British recognition declarations. Recognising a Palestine state, he said, “won’t make it come into existence. The problem is that they don’t ask themselves the fundamental questions: Within what borders? What is its capital? What leadership does it have? What system of government? Is it a democracy? Does it support the right of return? Does it have the means to deal with an attempt by Hamas to take over right after it is established?”
• President Trump, for his part, said of the British decision, “If you do that, you really are rewarding Hamas, and I don’t think they should be rewarded.”
• The British announcement follows the French government’s pledge to recognise a Palestinian state at the UNGA in September, and a host of European initiatives designed to pressure Israel to halt the war in Gaza — even with Hamas still in power and the Israeli hostages still languishing in its tunnels. These include a possible move by the EU to suspend Israel from the Horizon Europe program, a large and generously funded development program for scientific and industrial research. 
• Yedioth Ahronot reported that Israel and Germany are conducting intensive negotiations for a compromise that would see the Germans blocking such initiatives in exchange for Israel agreeing to an EU task force that would oversee compliance with EU demands regarding humanitarian aid into Gaza. Such a task force would determine if Israel has, as apparently agreed, doubled the entry of aid into Gaza or not, and if the task force is satisfied that it has, the various sanctions bruited would be suspended.

Context: Despite protestations from both the Prime Minister and the Foreign Secretary that “no one side will have a veto on recognition through their actions or inactions,” the stipulation that unless a ceasefire is agreed to the recognition will go forward grants just such a veto. All Hamas needs to do to ensure Britain recognises a Palestinian state is refuse to release any hostages. In fact, if Starmer and Lammy are taken at their word, any Hamas agreement now to even a partial hostage release and ceasefire would actually stymie the recognition effort. 

• This isn’t just a theoretical argument, but a recapitulation writ large of the diplomatic developments of the last fortnight. On July 23, Hamas and Israel were to finally sign off on a ceasefire agreement which would have liberated ten of the twenty living Israeli hostages after months of painstaking negotiations. But on July 21, Lammy and 28 other Foreign Ministers issued a combative statement against Israel’s war effort essentially granting all of Hamas’ demands for free. Unsurprisingly, Hamas immediately scuppered the ceasefire talks, raising new demands on July 22, and the ceasefire and hostage release never came to pass.
• The recognition announcement follows weeks of intense pressure inside the Government and in Parliament for such a move, in both cases motivated more by anger at Israel than by any real assessment of the meaning of recognition or the dynamics of the conflict. States are normally recognised after they are founded. This recognition would be of a state that all acknowledge does not presently exist, even if many would very much like to see it come into being. For those so inclined, there is no reckoning with why exactly there isn’t a Palestinian state. Such a state could have been established at the end of the British Mandate following the UN partition resolution in 1947 or at any time during the Arab occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip between 1948 and 1967, but was not. It could have been established as a result of peace talks in 2000, 2001, 2008, 2014, but on each those occasions it was the Palestinians who rejected statehood because it could only be effected by a full reconciliation with a Jewish state next door.
• The Foreign Secretary’s statement at the UN yesterday included the sentence “Hamas must never be rewarded for its monstrous attack on October 7,” but there is no way of understanding the British policy as anything but such a reward, and indeed it was publicly welcomed by Hamas. What the Palestinians refused to accept in peace negotiations, the UK is endeavouring to grant them without peace and following the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust.

Looking ahead: Israel has not made any announcement of steps it might take in response to the French and British moves.

• Bezalel Smotrich, Finance Minister and leader of a far-right party in the Knesset pushed for a partial annexation of territory in Gaza. Even outside far-right and pro-settler circles in Israeli politics there have been voices calling for territorial losses to be used a lever to pressure Hamas.
• The thinking behind this is that Hamas is not moved by the difficult conditions of Gaza civilians — on the contrary, it sees only political gains when the humanitarian situation worsens — but that Hamas would be loath to loss territory.
• Sources in the Government poured cold water on the idea, with Shas leader Aryeh Deri reportedly saying in Cabinet yesterday that “We have nothing to look for in Gaza,” and another unnamed Minister telling Israeli media that the annexation idea is “not really on the table,” but rather just a threat to pressure Hamas.