Israel, the UK and the world

Updated December 19, 2024

Israel moves into demilitarised zone on Golan as Assad regime collapses

09/12/24

What’s happened: Syrian rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and backed by Turkey announced that they had captured Damascus and the Baathist regime led by Bashar al-Assad had fallen.

Assad is reported to have fled Syria with his family, and is understood to have been granted asylum in Russia.
The former Syrian Prime Minister, Mohammed Ghazi Jalali, has said that the government was ready to “extend its hand” and turn its functions over to a transitionary administration. He has also called for free elections and confirmed he is in contact with rebel leaders.
In a statement read out on TV, the head of HTS and the de-facto leader of the rebel forces, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, declared “the future is ours” and said “there is no room for turning back”. The Syrian opposition coalition has also confirmed that it is working towards forming a transitional governing body with full executive powers, and has ambitions to form both global and regional partnerships.
President Biden said the fall of the Assad’s regime “is a direct result of the blows that Ukraine and Israel have delivered against Russia, Hamas, and Hezbollah with unflagging support from the United States.” Biden added that there was a historic opportunity to build a better future in Syria, but cautioned it was also a moment of risk and uncertainty in the region. US Central Command said the US military had struck more than 75 ISIS targets in the country to prevent the terrorist group from taking advantage of the situation there.
Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the Separation of Forces Agreement between Israel and Syria – signed after the Yom Kippur War – had collapsed, and Israel deployed troops to the buffer zone on the Syrian border to guarantee the security of communities in the Golan Heights. Israel also conducted several airstrikes on ammunition and weapons depots across Syria – including those connected to chemical weapons – to destroy equipment it fears may fall into hostile hands.
Referring to the collapse of the Assad regime, Netanyahu said: “This is a historic day in the history of the Middle East. The Assad regime – a central link in Iran’s axis of evil – has fallen.”
Prime Minister Starmer, has welcomed the collapse of the regime while calling for “peace and stability” in the country and rejecting terrorism. The PM said the collapse of Assad’s regime marked a positive change for the Syrian people and that the way of tackling problems of terrorism and restoring security is through a political solution which the UK will be engaged with. Foreign Secretary Lammy also called for the protection of minorities while reiterating how “Syrians deserve an inclusive political transition and a pathway to peace and security.”
Despite being a longstanding patron of the Assad regime, Iran has responded cooly with a statement from their foreign ministry saying “the relations between the two nations of Iran and Syria have a long history and have always been friendly, and it is expected that these relations will continue”.

Context: The Assad family has been in control of Syria for over half a century and has been in a perpetual state of conflict with Israel. However, since the cessation of the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the armistice agreement the following year it has been one of Israel’s quietest borders.

In recent years, Syria has been a central component of Iran’s circle of fire, surrounding Israel with hostile entities and crucially serving as an overland link to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Iran has also used Syrian territory to develop and store advanced weapons systems destined both for Hezbollah but Iranian militias inside Syria.
The timing of the rebel offensive and the speed of the Syrian army collapse has been widely credited to Israel’s success in dismantling Hezbollah’s military capacity. With Russia predisposed with its war in Ukraine, the Syrian army was left isolated with the rebels taking full advantage.
This marks the first time since the 1974 Agreement on Disengagement was signed that Israeli forces have taken up positions inside the buffer zone between Israel and Syria, albeit having briefly entered on several other occasions.
Israel’s top priority is to defend civilian communities living on the Golan Heights in close vicinity to the border and to prevent rebels from threatening the Israeli border. The first area the troops entered on Saturday was around the Druze village of Hader in an effort to assist UN forces to repel an attack.
Hader is considered the sister village of Majdal Shams (which is located on the Israeli side of the Golan) with close familial bonds between the two.
In recent months Israel has dug deep anti-tank ditches along the Syrian border to prevent an invasion by pick-up trucks similar to those used by Hamas on October 7th.
Israel’s second priority is to prevent advanced weapons systems from falling into the hands of the rebels. Since the middle of last week, Israel has been carrying out a series of strikes against strategic weapons facilities held by the Assad regime.
Syria formerly possessed the largest arsenal of chemical weapons in the world. While most of that arsenal was removed from Syrian territory, it is thought likely to still possess capabilities (and know-how).
Despite disaffiliating from Al Qaeda, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham remains proscribed in the UK with Home Office guidance stipulating that it “should be treated as alternative names for the organisation which is already proscribed under the name Al Qa’ida” (sic). This will likely pose significant challenges to the Labour government given HTS’s leading role in the current rebel coalition.

Looking ahead: Prime Minister Starmer visits the Gulf countries this week, aiming to strengthen the trade and defence partnerships between the UK and the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which are the ‘most vital modern-day partners’. He will also be discussing the new leadership in Syria and the opportunity to create change.

With Iran reeling from the collapse of its regional proxies there is heightened concern that Iran could increase its efforts to develop nuclear weapons.

December 6, 2024

Israeli concerns as Syrian rebels push south

06/12/24

What’s happened: Turkish-backed Syrian rebels have continued their advance and captured the city of Hama following the withdrawal of the regime’s troops.

Hama is the second major city taken by the rebels, and its fall marks another major setback for President Assad.
Regime forces withdrew following rebels breaking through their defensive lines to the north of the city, despite being reinforced by Russian air support and the local redeployment of Iranian supported militias.
Hama has approximately a million inhabitants, and is located around 70 miles south of Aleppo. It is just under 30 miles north of Homs, which is now also being threatened by the rebels.
Hezbollah’s Secretary General, Naim Qassem yesterday confirmed that the organisation would support Syrian government forces against the advance of what it referred to as “terrorist groups”, also blaming Israel and the US for the rebels’ recent successes.
Earlier this week, the IDF confirmed that it had killed Hezbollah’s main liaison with the Syrian army in an airstrike on Damascus.
Syrian sources have claimed that Israel also carried out extensive strikes on weapons storage facilities in the Damascus area.
Iraq’s Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, has also commented on the escalating Syrian situation, confirming on Tuesday that his country would not be a “bystander” where it feared that ethnic groups and sects could be victims of ethnic cleansing. “What is happening in Syria today is in the interest of the Zionist entity [Israel], which deliberately bombed Syrian army sites in a way that paved the way for terrorist groups to control additional areas in Syria”, the Iraqi Prime Minister’s office quoted Sudani as saying.

Context: These developments are highly concerning for Israel given the risk of advanced “strategic” weapons falling into the hands of hostile rebel groups, the prospect of Iran-backed Shia fighters moving into Syria in support of the regime, and a failed state sitting on its northern border.

Writing for Yediot Ahronot, Ron Ben Yishai suggests that “missiles and perhaps chemical weapons that are in northern and central Syria are liable to fall within days, perhaps even hours, into the hands of the jihadist rebels, and perhaps already have.”
Of particular concern is the Syrian military-industrial complex in the area of As-Safira southeast of Aleppo where precision guided missiles were manufactured, despite it recently being attacked by the Israeli Air Force.
Irrespective of ideology, Israel is almost certainly prioritising preventing any of its adversaries from obtaining new strategic capabilities, and is likely to continue striking any such weaponry held by the regime to prevent it from falling into rebel hands.
Others have argued that Israel’s interests are best served by severing the Assad regime from the Iranians. Amos Yadlin, a former head of military intelligence has argued that, in this case, Israel would be better off with the “devil we don’t know.” He believes Sunni rebel groups are not expected to turn their weapons against Israel, certainly not in the short and medium term.
Following the seeming failure of Russian aid as a guarantor for the regime’s survival, Iranian-backed Shia militias are now coming to its aid causing significant concern to the Israeli government. It is feared that these groups could constitute the beginning of a new Iranian entrenchment in Syria which may in turn move south to the Israeli border.
If the rebels take Homs, it would mark a major strategic blow for the regime. Its fall would extend rebel control through a corridor from the Turkish border in the north to just short of the Lebanese border in south, almost bisecting the country and denying regime forces the ability to move between their coastal strongholds and capital of Damascus.
The prospect of sharing a border with a failed state where Iran may fund and raise proxies to attack Israel with is also a major threat, and not one the Israeli government will tolerate.
Earlier this week, a second Israeli government delegation visited Moscow in the space of less than a month, reportedly to discuss developments in Syria. Israel and Russia have previously worked closely to deconflict air force activities.
The Israeli government is preparing for the eventuality that the Syrian army may collapse altogether, while Prime Minister Netanyahu and security chiefs are holding regular meetings on the subject.

Looking ahead: Israel will continue to closely monitor the situation as well as staying coordinated with the US, while stressing that it is not supporting either side.

December 5, 2024

Renewed cautious optimism for a hostage deal

05/12/24

What’s happened: More details have emerged of the new Egyptian proposal to reach a deal to release the hostages.

Many of the finer details are still unclear and some still need to be negotiated, but these appear to be the contours of a new agreement:
- The deal will begin with a temporary ceasefire that will last between 45 and 60 days.
- In that time, there will be a gradual / staged release of living hostages. Earlier deals spoke of the 33 hostages. It is not clear if it will reach that figure.
- In return, Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. The ratio still needs to be negotiated.
- One of the most dramatic clauses appears to be the opening of the Rafah crossing (between Egypt and Gaza) that will be placed under the control of the Palestinian Authority (PA).
- It also includes a substantial increase in the supply of Humanitarian Aid into the Gaza Strip, thought to be up to 350 trucks a day.
In light of these developments, Qatar has announced that it is also ready to resume its mediation role.
The announcement came as the Amir of Qatar Tamim Bin in Hamad Al Thani continued his state visit to the UK and met with Prime Minister Starmer. As part of their conversation Starmer “commended Qatar’s leadership in mediation…. Including their role in securing the release of hostages.”
The prime minister added, “we must continue to push for all hostages to be released, including British national Emily Damari.”
In a joint IDF-Shin Bet operation, the body of Itai Svirsky a 38 year old hostage was recovered inside Gaza and has been brought back to Israel.
Also yesterday, the IDF released details of the inquiry into the death of six hostages whose bodies were found in a tunnel in Khan Yunis in August. According to their findings, they were all executed by gunshot in February following an Israeli airstrike in their close vicinity. It is thought their captors were then killed, possibly as a result of toxic fumes from the strike. Prior to the public release, the IDF presented the findings of the inquiry to the families of the six hostages—Alex Dancyg, Yagev Buchshtav, Chaim Peri, Yoram Metzger, Nadav Popplewell and Avraham Munder.
In the US, President-elect Trump announced that he would appoint Adam Boehler as special presidential envoy for hostage affairs.

Context: Despite the cautious optimism, there remains more questions than answers, particularly how to square the circle of fundamental disagreements between Israel and Hamas.

Hamas has continued to insist that any deal signals the end of the war. Israel is not prepared to give that guarantee. The temporary ceasefire could be temporary solution.
Hamas also continues to insist that the IDF fully withdraws from the Strip. While this seems unlikely, the Egyptians are exploring options for a redeployment or a gradual withdrawal that will satisfy both sides.
If Israel were to allow the PA control and authority over the Rafah crossing, that would be a significant concession and would mark a dramatic reintegration of the PA into Gaza. The control of crossing has significance regarding sovereignty of the Strip and the large financial implications (denying Hamas crucial future income) and could be a significant feature for post war rehabilitation.
If Prime Minister Netanyahu agrees to this, it will mark a sharp change in policy. It remains unclear how his right wing coalition partners will respond.
Hamas has also long objected to the PA reinserting itself into such an important symbolic and practical role.
There is concern amid the visit of the Qatari leader that they continue to play a duplicitous role having hosted and funded Hamas for many years and have not done enough to exert requisite pressure on Hamas to release the hostages.
Itai Svirsky was kidnapped from Kibbutz Beeri on October 7th. He was there visiting his parents on the Jewish festival of Simchat Torah. Both his parents were killed on the 7th. It is believed Svirsky was taken alive and murdered after about four months in captivity.
The recovery of his body now leaves exactly 100 hostages in Hamas captivity.
Trump’s appointment of Boehler follows his threat that there would be “all hell to pay” if the hostages were not released by the time he enters office.
Boehler served in Trump’s first term and was one of the lead negotiators of the Abraham Accords and the Taliban.

Looking ahead: Israel’s security cabinet is due to convene this evening with the meeting expected to be focused on these developments.

The next stage of the feasibility test of this new proposal will be when Israel sends a senior delegation to Cairo to explore these issues in more detail. The delegation is expected to be led by head of the Shin Bet Ronen Bar.
In parallel it is expected that Hamas’s negotiating team will retune to Doha to resume the talks.
The optimistic scenario is to have a deal before President-elect Trump enters office on January 20th

December 3, 2024

“Starmer: Iran is a state sponsor of terror”

03/12/12

What happened: Prime Minister Starmer yesterday laid out the UK government’s views on Israel and the wider region.

In a speech at Labour Friends of Israel (LFI) calling for a “better future for the next generation,” Starmer reiterated the position of the government on Israel and the wider region. He called for a lasting ceasefire in Gaza, the return of the hostages and a two-state solution emphasising that there “is no place for Hamas.” Starmer voiced his support for the expansion of the Abraham Accords, criticised BDS, and described violence by pro-Palestinian protesters as antisemitism.
Starmer announced that the foreign secretary will convene an inaugural meeting of international partners to discuss support for civil society in the region. This concerns LFI’s longstanding campaign for an ‘International Fund for Israeli-Palestinian Peace.’
Starmer vowed not to turn a “blind eye as Iran seeks to destabilise the Middle East.” “We have imposed tough sanctions on the IRGC and we unreservedly condemn Iran’s attacks,” he said. He described the Islamic Republic as “a country which is repressing its own citizens, coordinating proxy armies and terrorist groups, intimidating the region with the veiled menace of its nuclear programme, and even seeking to incite violence and extremism here in the UK.”
Starmer also said: “Make no mistake – Iran is a state sponsor of terror. Whether that’s through their funding, training, and support for Hamas –making the October 7 attack possible. Or the Houthis who have attacked Israel and caused chaos to international shipping or for Hezbollah in Lebanon.”
The PM said that the UK “respect the independence of the ICC. We are signatories to the Rome Statute.” He added that he would “never accept any equivalence between Israel – a democracy, and Hamas – a terrorist organisation.”
Starmer reiterated the UK government’s support for the return of the hostages, “There is no ceasefire worthy of the name, which does not, as item number one include the return of all the hostages.”
Starmer also said violence from pro-Palestinian protesters is antisemitism: “Violence, harassment, and intimidation of British Jews on our streets – and online. Let me be clear – that behaviour is not – and can never be called – pro-Palestinian…Let’s call it what it is – it is antisemitism, through and through.”
The PM also criticised settler extremism and violence, saying expansionism in the West Bank will “not help Israel’s position.”
On the rebuilding of Palestine, Starmer said that “there is no place for Hamas”, and that Israel cannot have a safe future without a “viable Palestinian state.” He added that “antisemitic incitement in Palestinian media, violence against Jews and glorifying terrorism in schools, will only weaken Palestinian security in the long term.”
Also speaking at the lunch, Ambassador Hotovely pushed for tougher action against Iran. She also said that Israel would “never forget the moment when in April, Royal Air Force fighter pilots took action to defend Israel from attack by Iran: the world’s oldest democracy standing by the Middle East’s only democracy.”
LFI Chair Jon Pearce MP also addressed the lunch saying: “this wasn’t a war of Israel’s choice or making. It was a war inflicted on Israelis and Palestinians by Iran and its proxies. They launched this war for one reason: to murder as many Jews as possible to further their mission to wipe Israel from the map. From that clarity must come action. Israel is on the frontline of a wider battle: one between democracy and autocracy. This isn’t just Israel’s fight: it is ours too.”
Mandy Damari, the mother of Emily, the only remaining British hostage, also addressed the lunch. She said the fact that the UK’s vote at the UN in November for an unconditional ceasefire in Gaza wasn’t tied to the release of hostages “broke her heart.”
After her speech on the importance of bringing Emily home to safety, Mandy Damari called for action from the Prime Minister, saying: “From the United Nations and the Red Cross to the Qatari Government, I have been calling for Humanitarian Aid to be delivered immediately to all the hostages. Today I asked Keir Starmer and the British government to lead this effort on the international stage, to secure urgent medical visits to Emily and the other 100 hostages, before it is too late and to keep them all alive, while the campaign to bring them home continues.”

Context: This is the first speech Starmer has made to LFI supporters since he became Prime Minister.

Over 100 parliamentarians, including cabinet ministers Peter Kyle, David Lammy, Pat McFadden, Lucy Powell, Steve Reed, Ellie Reeves, Rachel Reeves, and Jonathan Reynolds attended the lunch and speech.
While his speech referred to previous Labour governments proscribing Hamas, Hezbollah and the PIJ, it did not mention proscribing Iran’s IRGC.
In April, after Iran fired over 300 missiles and drones towards Israel, the UK sanctioned a further 7 individuals and 6 entities who it said “have enabled Iran to conduct destabilising regional activity, including its direct attack on Israel.” It followed a decision in January 2024, in which the UK imposed sanctions on individual members of the IRGC’s Unit 840 over plots to assassinate two television presenters from the news channel Iran International on British soil.
The government said at the time that the plot was “just the latest credible reporting of the regime’s attempt to intimidate or kill British nationals or UK-linked individuals, with at least 15 such threats taking place since January 2022.”
It remains to be seen if the government will proscribe the IRGC. Before he became Defence Secretary, John Healey was supportive, arguing that proscribing the IRGC was “the leading edge of the threat that Iran poses not just to Israel, but to Arab countries and western interests right across the region. It’s the way that the Iranians sponsor and support violent military militia groups that destabilise the region and threaten other countries as well.”
Last week ex-British Army signaller, Daniel Khalife, was found guilty of spying for Iran. While the information Khalife was passing to Iran was largely trivial – with some having been faked – it nevertheless indicates Iran’s intentions towards the UK and serves as evidence of the espionage they are conducting in the country.
In November 2022, the head of MI5 Ken McCallum publicly revealed that foiling Iranian assassination attempts had formed much of the security services’ work in the past year. “Iran projects a threat to the UK directly, through its aggressive intelligence services”, said McCallum. “At its sharpest this includes ambitions to kidnap or even kill British or UK-based individuals perceived as enemies of the regime. We have seen at least ten such potential threats since January alone.”
The UK’s National Cyber Security Centre has also reported Iranian attacks on British infrastructure.

Looking ahead: The UK government’s position on the ICC arrest warrants – and whether they would support the arrest of Prime Minister Netanyahu if he stood on British soil – remains to be clarified.

Mandy Damari will be speaking directly with press for the first time in London this Thursday. She will also be meeting the Prime Minister of Qatar, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Bin Jassim Al Thanias, as part of his forthcoming state visit to the UK.

December 2, 2024

Israel closely monitoring developments in Syria as rebels make gains

02/12/2024

What’s happened: The Israeli government has held high-level consultations with senior defence officials after a coalition of Turkish-backed Sunni Arab Syrian rebel groups launched their first offensive against pro-government forces since 2020 leading to the shock capture of Aleppo.

In an offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) several towns in the Aleppo and Idlib provinces have now fallen under rebel control while Hama is also reportedly under threat. HTS now control significant amounts of territory in northwest Syria.
According to the UK based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, rebel forces also captured the strategically located town of Tal Rifaat which was jointly controlled by the regime and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. The Kurdish-led Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria declared a general mobilisation in the area it controls in anticipation of further clashes rebel groups.
In his first comments since the offensive commenced, President Assad said the country would “defend its stability and territorial integrity…[and defeat] terrorists and their supporters”.
Russian and Syrian jets have responded by bombing rebel positions.
Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi visited Damascus for talks with senior Syrian government officials and told journalists that Tehran would continue supporting President Assad. Assad also received calls of solidarity from King Abdullah II of Jordan and Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan of the United Arab Emirates.
Dozens of Iranian linked and backed Iraqi militia members from Kataib Hezbollah have reportedly crossed into Syria to fight in support of the regime. While currently small in number, a larger deployment of Iraqi forces is probable and would mirror their earlier involvement in the Syrian Civil War.
In a statement released yesterday, a FCDO spokesperson said “We reiterate our call for a Syrian-led political solution to the conflict. The Assad regime has created the conditions for the current escalation through its ongoing refusal to engage in a political process and its reliance on Russia and Iran. The regime and all actors in Syria’s conflict must support and engage with negotiations as called for in UNSCR 2254.”
That Security Council resolution endorsed a 2015 roadmap for peace in Syria which aspires to see free and fair elections for the Syrian people under UN supervision.

Context: The Syrian Civil War has largely been dormant since a Russian and Turkish brokered ceasefire took hold 2020. Although small-scale clashes have taken place on a regular basis, they have fallen short of any kind of major offensive up until now.

Overall, there are mixed feelings within the Israeli leadership. On the one hand, any weakening of the Syrian regime – that is heavily backed by Hezbollah and Iran – is a positive outcome. However concern exists that the Sunni extremists that threaten the regime could one day also pose a threat to the Israeli border.
With Hezbollah forces now being deployed into Syria to support Assad, this could help preserve the Israeli-Hezbollah ceasefire as it makes Hezbollah less likely to attack Israel. Israeli media quoted intelligence sources saying that “freedom of military operation will apparently widen” as Israel continues to prioritise preventing the transfer of weaponry to Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies from Syria into Lebanon.
However, it also appears that Iran is sending more Shiite proxy fighters to help defend the Syrian regime, giving Israel a dilemma of whether to attack them or not.
There is heightened concern over sensitive sites in the Aleppo area, including chemical weapons, that Israel considers a strategic threat if they were to fall into the hands of Jihadis.
In an interview Israeli Channel 12 News, a senior Syrian rebel officer confirmed that the offensive coincided with last week’s Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire after it was assessed likely that members of the Iran-backed terror group were likely to flee across the border from Lebanon into Syria.
Hezbollah’s significantly weakened state was also likely part of the factoring which resulted in this offensive’s launch.
When the Syrian regime was most threatened by rebel forces during the country’s civil war, a combination of Russian, Iranian, and Hezbollah support effectively guaranteed its survival. However, their positions have been greatly weakened by years of war in Ukraine and recent Israeli military action to the extent they can no longer reliably viewed as the regime’s guarantors.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s successes are also causing a degree of concern given its previous identity as Al Qaeda’s Syrian franchise. Formerly known as “Jabhat al-Nusra” and designated as a terrorist organisation by the United Nations Security Council and Five Eyes intelligence alliance (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States), it is widely viewed as an extremist organisation despite its 2016 demerger from Al Qaeda.
The offensive comes at a time when Assad had slowly begun his rehabilitation and reintegration into the wider Arab world after years of isolation, most notably during a May 2023 Arab League summit in Riyadh where he delivered a much publicised speech.
Syrian-Emirati relations had also been warming since 2018, with Saudi Arabia seemingly at the cusp of reopening their Damascus embassy earlier this year. Whether these attempts will succeed has now been called into question, and will likely largely depend on the Syrian regime’s response to the recent rebel offensive.

Looking ahead: The Iranian Foreign Minister will visit Turkey today for further consultations.

Israel, the UK, and US continue to closely monitor the developing situation.

November 21, 2024

ICC issues arrest warrants against Israeli leaders

ICC: The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for Prime Minister Netanyahu and former defence minister Gallant.

This is the first time the court has ever issued warrants against leaders of a democratic country
The announcement has been met with shock and astonishment in Israel, compounded by the fact that since October 202 Israel has been responding to attacks orchestrated by Hamas, Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies.
Three judges of the ICC have issued the warrants on charges of crimes against humanity and war crimes committed during the current war against Hamas in Gaza.
In parallel the court also issued a warrant for Hamas military leader Mohammed Deif, however Israel is confident he was killed earlier this year.
Both Netanyahu and Gallant will be liable for arrest if they travel to any country that are party to the ICC.
The decision will prevent them from travelling to many countries, including in Europe, but not to the US that is not a signatory of the court.
Beyond that its effect will be significant reputational damage.
The ICC was established in 2002 following the entry into force of the Rome Statute (1998). It has the mandate to prosecute individuals (rather than groups or States) responsible for the crimes of genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and also the crime of aggression (a crime which came into force in 2017).
Responding to the announcement, President Herzog said, “This is a dark day for justice. A dark day for humanity…It ignores the plight of the 101 Israeli hostages held in brutal captivity by Hamas in Gaza. It ignores Hamas’ cynical use of its own people as human shields. It ignores the basic fact that Israel was barbarically attacked and has the duty and right to defend its people. It ignores the fact that Israel is a vibrant democracy, acting under international humanitarian law, and going to great lengths to provide for the humanitarian needs of the civilian population…This cynical exploitation of the international legal institutions reminds us once again of the need for true moral clarity in the face of an Iranian empire of evil that seeks to destabilise our region and the world, and destroy the very institutions of the free world.”
Currently, the Court has 123 state parties (including Palestine whose status and membership is contested by many states), although the US, Russia, China and most Asian states are not currently members of the Court.

Northern Gaza: After two and half months the IDF is wrapping up its offensive operations against Hamas fighters and military infrastructure in the northern Gaza city of Jabalya.

It currently appears that the IDF will remain deployed in the area to prevent lest Hamas once again tries to reconstitute itself militarily.
Humanitarian efforts in Gaza continue, with the IDF confirming the transfer of 1,000 blood units into northern Gaza.
The IDF also announced that since the outbreak of the war, 14 field hospitals have been established in coordination with international organisations, alongside the entry of over 2,800 trucks carrying 28,000 tons of medical equipment and hygiene products.
Earlier this week Prime Minister Netanyahu along with the new Defence Minister Israel Katz visited the Netzarim Corridor in the central Gaza Strip. Netanyahu commended the IDF for achieving “excellent results toward our important objective,” adding “Hamas will not rule in Gaza. We are eliminating its military capabilities in very impressive fashion. We are moving on to its governing abilities, and we are not yet done. Hamas will not be in Gaza.”
Netanyahu also related to Israeli efforts to bring back all the hostages, promising monetary reward for anyone freeing them. “Whoever brings us a hostage, will find a safe way out for himself and his family. We will also give $5 million for every hostage. Choose, the choice is yours but the result will be the same. We will bring them all back.”
Yesterday, Israel once again relied on a US veto at the UN Security Council, as they rejected the call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. The US opposed the wording as it made no correlation between ending the war and releasing the hostages.

Context: The fighting in both Lebanon and Gaza appear to be drawing to an end. There are two other similarities between the fronts:

Israel is wary that any withdrawal will create a vacuum that will be subsequently filled by terror organisations. In Lebanon Israel hopes that a reconstituted UNIFIL and Lebanese Army will fill the void. In Gaza no solution has yet been found.
Secondly, the IDF is insisting the right to respond to future efforts to reconstitute fighting capacity. In Lebanon, Israel is hoping for US backing for this, whist in Gaza this has remained a stumbling block in ceasefire talks.
The major difference between Lebanon and Gaza are the 101 hostages. Despite the IDF’s military progress, they are severely restricting their own movement and deliberately not operating in areas where the remaining hostages could be held.
Following the killing of the six hostages at the end of August the IDF now realises that any manoeuvres in close proximity to the remaining hostages will endanger their lives.
This in turn has enabled Hamas to reestablish its partial governance in some parts of the Strip.
It is thought that the IDF has a fair degree of intelligence on the situation of the hostages, primarily based on information from captured terrorists, and other evidence they have found during their operations. However it is still thought that Hamas is sometimes still able to move them from place to place, making any rescue mission even harder.
An IDF commander told Yediot Ahronot, “The overwhelming majority of Gazans have not seen IDF soldiers for most of the long 14 months of fighting, which is why Hamas is still deeply rooted in government, because it has no rival… The public in Gaza is not close to rebelling against Hamas, there is no energy for this and no alternative.”
The IDF has expanded the territory it controls in Gaza, and has paved new roads to serve to more efficiently manoeuvre troops and to facilitate the increased delivery of Humanitarian Aid.
The IDF is reportedly considering taking over the full process of delivering aid. Unlike the current arrangement whereby the IDF facilitates only the entry of aid, it would also take responsibility for the delivery too.
The recently fired defence minister Gallant said that Israel’s taking security responsibility for the distribution of Humanitarian Aid in the Gaza Strip would set it down the path of military governance, at an unacceptable cost to the lives of soldiers. Gallant wrote on X, “The discussion about distributing food to residents of Gaza by private companies with IDF security is a euphemism for the start of a military government.”
During the two and half months of fighting in Jabalya the IDF assess over 1,000 Hamas terrorists were either killed or arrested, while the IDF lost 28 soldiers.
The IDF ordered the evacuation of Jabalya and surrounding towns in northern Gaza, but many Palestinians remained there, either because they are unwilling or unable to evacuate.
Yesterday Israel crossed an unwanted milestone. Since the beginning of the war, 803 Israeli soldiers and officers have been killed. Among them are 272 reservists. 385 soldiers are under the age of 22.
The relative security of Netzarim corridor that enabled the prime minister’s visit reflects the current pace of Israel’s operations, which have transitioned to a low-intensity conflict recently in most of Gaza.
Despite the IDF’S success, Hamas are still able to launch sporadic rocket attacks, including this morning when one rocket launched from the southern Gaza Strip towards Kerem Shalom.

Looking ahead: US envoy Hochstein arrived in Israel last night and met with Minister Dermer. He is set to meet with Netanyahu today.

The Security Cabinet are also due to convene this evening to discuss the talks.
Senior diplomats say that they are closer than ever to reaching a ceasefire deal in Lebanon, but there are remaining gaps, particularly over monitoring mechanism. There is an understanding that the engagement of the US, France, and the UK could be significant

November 20, 2024

US optimistic for ceasefire in Lebanon

What happened: White House senior advisor Amos Hochstein has met several Lebanese officials to try and advance a ceasefire agreement.

After meeting with Shia Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who is considered the interlocutor between the Lebanese government and Hezbollah, Hochstein said he felt there was a “real opportunity to bring this conflict to an end… It is now within our grasp.” He added that he hoped the coming days would yield a “resolute decision.”
Hochstein also met with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and the Commander of the Lebanese Army Joseph Aoun.
Berri said negotiations were going “good in principle” and that “only a few more technical details remain to be concluded.”
An Israeli official made clear that while Israel was preparing to implement the deal and to withdraw forces, “We will increase the firepower as long as there is no official signature on the agreement.”
Hezbollah continues to fire missiles and drones towards Israel with sirens sounding in Kiryat Shmona, Manara, and areas in the Western Galilee this morning. An IDF reservist, Omer Moshe Gaeldor (30), was killed and three others were seriously wounded in a Hezbollah drone attack in southern Lebanon.
UNIFIL said peacekeepers and facilities had been targeted in three separate incidents on Tuesday, and that four Ghanaian peacekeepers were wounded when a rocket hit their base in southern Lebanon. UNIFIL mentioned it was fired by ‘non state actors’, while the IDF explicitly named Hezbollah, saying they had fired the rockets from the areas of Maaliyeh and Deir Aames in southern Lebanon.
In response to the attack, Argentina announced it was pulling its troops from a peacekeeping force.
On Monday, the IAF struck and eliminated Hezbollah operative Ali Tawfiq Dweiq, the commander of Hezbollah’s medium-range rocket array. Dweiq commanded the medium-range rocket array since September 2024, and was responsible for the launch of over 300 projectiles toward Israel, including towards Haifa and central Israel.
The IDF has also begun conducting targeted raids against a central Hezbollah stronghold in southern Lebanon. In coordination with the IAF, the troops struck dozens of targets in the stronghold that were used to fire rockets into Israel as well as command centres, weapons storage facilities, and observation posts.
The Wall Street Journal reported that, as the IDF continues to advance in southern Lebanon, it has found large troves of Russian weapons, including some manufactured as recently as 2020. “The [Russian-made] weapons Israel is finding now are newer, more advanced, and present in larger numbers than expected by military analysts,” the report notes.

Context: In parallel to the diplomatic process both Israel and Hezbollah are looking for final military gains ahead of any ceasefire.

Although the Americans are confident that a deal can be concluded, Israel is keen for the US to add more diplomatic pressure on the Lebanese to improve the terms of the deal. With limited diplomatic leverage, Israel is using its military clout to add pressure on Hezbollah to end the fighting.
Part of this pressure includes advances to the ‘second row’ of villages in the south, as well as strikes on Hezbollah assets in Beirut and elsewhere.
Despite the US optimism, several issues remain unresolved:
- The most important issue for Israel is to retain freedom of action to thwart any attempts by Hezbollah to violate the agreement, both in terms of returning fighters in close proximity to the Israeli border and Hezbollah efforts to rearm and rebuild their military capacity. This is likely to come in the form of separate document from the US president offering those guarantees. The Lebanese say that such a letter is unnecessary.
- The extent to which Israel will be able to independently monitor Hezbollah activities through overflights and other technology.
- The augmentation and upgrading of UNIFIL. Israel is keen to see more peacekeepers from European states whilst Lebanon prefers Arab forces.
- Clarification of the division and distinction of roles for both UNIFIL and the LAF operating south of the Litani River.
- The composition of the international monitoring mechanism. Prior to the war, there was a trilateral forum consisting of the IDF, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and UNIFIL. The new proposal is for there to be a four way committee. This would be chaired (crucially from Israel’s perspective) by a US official (possibly CENTCOM commander), and also include France, the UN and (an as yet unnamed) Arab country. Israel was keen for the UK and Germany to play a role, but that currently seems less likely.
- Confirmation of the process for when Israel reports a violation and the protocol of the oversight committee encouraging LAF or UNIFIL to deal with the issue before the IDF would respond.
- An agreed-upon mechanism for dealing with other disputes, primarily, the ‘Blue Line’ border markings, on which Israel reached agreement with the UN in 2000, but which Hezbollah do not accept and have used as a pretext for continued hostilities.
- Whether the limits on Hezbollah’s presence can – in some places – extend to areas north of the Litani River in areas where, due to the line of the river (relative to the border), there are areas in the Upper Galilee that could still face direct threats from anti-tank missiles.
As part of the ceasefire, Israel may also be seeking some commitment from Iran to restrain their proxies from attacking Israel from Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
Once the principles of a ceasefire are agreed, some of these issues will be resolved during the initial 60 days of the ceasefire, after which the IDF will then redeploy to the Israeli border.

Looking ahead: US envoy Hochstein is expected to remain in Lebanon today and try and resolve some of the outstanding issues.

If there is sufficient progress, Hochstein is then expected to travel to Israel to update the Israeli government on the prospects and timetable for the deal.
Once a ceasefire is agreed,’the repairs and reconstruction of the northern communities can begin – before the eventual return of the residents. This will also allow Lebanese citizens to return home and similarly rebuild.
Israel will then also expedite the building of a new barrier along the border, along with a more substantial redeployment of troops.

November 12, 2024

Minister Dermer meets with Trump and Biden officials

Israel-US: Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer met with US President-elect Trump. The meeting aimed to pass along messages regarding Israel’s plans for Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran over the next two months.

Dermer also met with US Secretary of State Blinken, National Security Adviser Sullivan, White House Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa McGurk, and special envoy for Lebanon Hochstein.
Context: Israel is standing at a multilayered crossroads, as Minister Dermer’s trip illustrates, Israel needs to remain coordinated with the Biden administration, whilst preparing for Trump across a range of fronts and issues.
Dermer’s meetings with US officials discussed the Wednesday deadline set by the Biden administration to dramatically improve the humanitarian crisis in Gaza at the risk of a partial arms embargo. They also discussed efforts to secure ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon.
On October 13, The Biden administration sent a letter to the Israeli government demanding it act to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza within the next 30 days or risk violating US laws governing foreign military assistance.
White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said that the letter was not intended as a threat, but “was simply meant to reiterate the sense of urgency we feel and the seriousness with which we feel it, about the need for an increase, a dramatic increase in humanitarian assistance.”
The letter also says that failure to demonstrate a sustained commitment to implementing and maintaining these measures may have implications for US policy under NSM-20 and relevant US law.” This refers to a memorandum issued by the White House National Security Council, which allows for ‘appropriate next steps’ if a country receiving US military aid is deemed by the State Department or the Pentagon not to be meeting prior assurances of allowing the delivery of humanitarian assistance.
Dermer was expected to present Secretary of State Blinken with a letter that details all the measures Israel has taken to increase the Humanitarian Aid across Gaza, especially in the northern part. The letter is thought to include a breakdown of the new border crossings that have been opened, the expansion of humanitarian zones and the increased volume of aid.
Israel claims that whereas it has worked to meet the pace of aid demanded by the Biden administration, UN aid organisations have failed to deliver the goods. While Israel has been unable to meet an American demand for 350 aid trucks daily to be transferred into Gaza, it has dramatically increased numbers since the American ultimatum letter was sent, and 250 trucks now crossing into Gaza each day.
The IDF announced that since the beginning of last month, more than 700 aid trucks have entered northern Gaza through the Erez West crossing. However, a significant challenge remains in the collection and distribution of this aid, there are approximately 700 trucks worth of aid waiting for collection by international organisations on the Gazan side of the various crossings.
The Biden administration is also reportedly considering harsh moves against Israel during the transition period, including tighter restrictions on arms supplies and a possible failure to veto anti-Israel resolutions at the UN Security Council.
Senior security officials reportedly criticised Katz for his comments over the weekend that Israel had defeated Hezbollah. They argued that his ‘declaration of victory’ and statements about Israeli freedom of action caused the other side to climb out on a high tree, adding “It would be best first to finalise an agreement and then to sell it to the public, and not the other way around.”
Looking ahead: US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein is expected to return to the region in order to advance an agreement to end the war with Hezbollah. He will travel first to Lebanon, after which he will see whether he has anything he can take to Israel.
Israel has demanded that the new agreement include clear terms, including IDF freedom to act in response to threats. Ultimately, that might not be a formal part of the agreement, and might only be an annex.

November 7, 2024

PM Starmer discusses Middle East with President-elect Trump

PM Starmer raised the Middle East in a call with President-elect Trump on Wednesday night.

According to a No 10 spokesperson Starmer: “reflected on the situation in the Middle East and underscored the importance of regional stability” in their first phone call since Donald Trump was elected on Tuesday.

November 7, 2024

Israeli leaders congratulate Trump

Congratulations: Even prior to the formal announcement of the President-elect’s victory, Prime Minister Netanyahu sent a congratulatory message, saying that Trump’s “historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America.”

Last night, Trump and Netanyahu spoke over the phone. The two leaders agreed to work together for Israel’s security and discussed the Iranian threat.
Leader of the Opposition Lapid congratulated Trump on X writing, “You have shown yourself time and again to be a true friend of Israel. I know that with your leadership we will continue to strengthen and deepen the unique bond that exists between our two countries and expand the circle of peace in the Middle East. These are challenging times for Israel but with the ironclad support of the United States and strong leadership we can overcome them all. For the people of Israel there is no task more urgent than bringing our hostages home from Gaza.”
President Herzog said, “You are a true and dear friend of Israel, and a champion of peace and cooperation in our region. I look forward to working with you to strengthen the ironclad bond between our peoples, to build a future of peace and security for the Middle East, and to uphold our shared values.”
National Unity Party leader MK Benny Gantz, noted Trump’s past achievements and added, “Against the backdrop of emboldened Iranian aggression in this region, its race to nuclear capabilities, and the paramount efforts to return the hostages home, President Trump’s leadership will not only ensure the US continues to be a special friend and ally to the State of Israel but a vital beacon of moral clarity to the Middle East and the world.”
Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas also congratulated Trump on his victory, expressing confidence he will support Palestinian’s aspirations for statehood.

Trump’s recent comments: President Elect Trump has consistently claimed to be a great friend of Israel.

On September 5^th he posted on his social media Truth 4.83 million followers that (in caps) “NO PRESIDENT HAS DEFENDED ISRAEL AND JEWISH AMERICANS MORE THAN DONALD J. TRUMP.”
In a short clip summarising his achievements, Trump mentioned:
- Declaring Jerusalem as the true capital of Israel;
- The US leaving the JCPOA nuclear accords with Iran;
- Imposing sanctions on Iran aimed at curbing their nuclear ambitions;
- Brokering and signing of the Abraham Accords.
At the same time, foreign policy including the Middle East is not a leading issue in American politics and the official 2024 Republican Party Platform says little about the region aside from “standing with Israel” and “restoring peace in the Middle East.”
Speaking at the Republican Jewish Coalition on September 5^th, Trump asserted that the Biden-Harris administration “sought to cast blame for these [Palestinian] deaths on Israel,” and that “the October 7^th attack on Israel would never have happened if he was President”. That sentiment was repeated during his September 10^th presidential debate against Harris.
In July 2024, Trump reportedly told Netanyahu “do what you have to do” and “finish up the war” but warned Netanyahu that Israel’s public relations have taken a hit due to the graphic videos of death and destruction that have come out of Gaza.

Israeli media initial assessments: Writing in Yediot Ahronot, Ron Ben Yishai recommends caution about the Trump administration. He highlights the fact that Trump’s son in law Jared Kushner will not be joining Trump in the White House, adding that that should concern Israel.

Israeli officials say that Netanyahu has been asked to leave Trump with a “clean” slate before he enters the Oval Office. To accomplish that, Netanyahu is going to have to learn how to make decisions at “Trump” speed, instead of continuing to juggle balls in the air.
On Channel 12 News, Ofer Hadad argues that while Biden or the Democratic Party didn’t like to break the rules, Trump doesn’t have any rules. For example, if Trump decides to stop the war or take any other step as part of his foreign policy, he will run over anyone who stands in his way, including Israel.
In an interview to Maariv today, Dr. Shay Har-Zvi from Reichman University, says that despite Trump’s policy of ‘America First’, the US would not be able to disengage from the Middle East and Israel could be under pressure to bring the war to an end.
He explains that Trump wishes that the war in the Middle East would come to an end before he enters the White House on January 20^th. In his victory speech Trump declared that he doesn’t wish to start wars. His main motivation is to focus on the significant challenge of the US in the international arena, as far as he concerned – the Chinese threat on the US dominancy and economy.
Har- Zvi emphasises the three main targets on Trump’s likely Middle East agenda: ending the war in Gaza and Lebanon which will secure the return of the hostages, advancing normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia, and dealing with Iran’s nuclear threat. To enhance the normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia, Netanyahu will have to show that he is willing to give the Palestinian diplomatic horizon.
Relating to Iran, Iranian expert Beni Sabti told Maariv that Trump will not continue working on Iran nuclear deal as it is now. The new administration might present new demands in three areas: the level of uranium enrichment, inspection on nuclear facilities and limitations on Iran’s nuclear programme.
Meanwhile Iranian government spokesperson, Fatemeh Mohajerani, said that the result would have little impact on Iran as “more than five decades of sanctions have toughened Iran.”
Maariv reports that Saudi Arabia has proposed opening an Israeli liaison office in Riyadh. The proposal was presented on the heels of the Euro-Muslim conference that was recently held to discuss the issue with the formal purpose of the office to coordinate the establishment of a Palestinian state.

LATEST

Key background

Israel moves into demilitarised zone on Golan as Assad regime collapses ​

Israeli concerns as Syrian rebels push south

Renewed cautious optimism for a hostage deal

“Starmer: Iran is a state sponsor of terror”

Israel closely monitoring developments in Syria as rebels make gains

ICC issues arrest warrants against Israeli leaders

US optimistic for ceasefire in Lebanon

Minister Dermer meets with Trump and Biden officials

PM Starmer discusses Middle East with President-elect Trump

Israeli leaders congratulate Trump

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Israel moves into demilitarised zone on Golan as Assad regime collapses