Inside Iran: Israel’s air supremacy over the skies of Iran allowed the IDF to continue to target a range of military and nuclear assets across the country. 

• In Tehran, Israel targeted the head of IRGC intelligence Mohammad Kazem and his deputy Hassan Mohaqiq, both were apparently buried under the rubble after their intelligence headquarters was struck. 
• As well as air strikes, there were reports of at least five car bombs detonated on the streets of Tehran, with the understanding that more nuclear scientists were targeted. 
• At least 14 Iranian nuclear scientists have been eliminated since Friday.
• Elsewhere the Israeli Air Force (IAF) continued to strike Iranian surface-to-surface missiles and their launchers as they prepared to fire more missiles at Israeli cities.
• In perhaps one of the IAF’s furthest ever strikes, fighter jets struck Mashad air force bases approximately 2,300km from Israel (close to the Iranian-Turkmenistani border).
• Israel also struck Iran’s fuel reserves, officials explained that they are used by the Iranian regime for military purposes and for attacks against Israel and its civilians.

Inside Israel: For a third consecutive night Israel was under heavy attack. Waves of missiles, sent Israelis across the country into their protective spaces. 

• Overnight, eight people were killed, while 287 were hospitalised with injuries.   

• Four people were killed in Petah Tikva by an Iranian missile early this morning.  Another 38 were taken to hospital, including two in serious condition. 
• In Haifa, three people were pronounced dead after their bodies were recovered from beneath the rubble. Rescue efforts were ongoing  this morning.
• One person was killed in Bnei Brak, just outside Tel Aviv.      
• As of 1015 local time this morning, there have been over 370 ballistic missiles launched, plus hundreds of drones, with 30 impact sites recorded.
• Since Friday, 24 people have died, 10 people are hospitalised in serious condition. 

Context: Three days into Operation Rising Lion, the IDF has struck over 170 individual targets and more than 720 military assets.

• The IDF announced that it “continues to intensify the blow to the Iranian nuclear threat, targeting its heart and depriving it of critical capabilities and components for weapon production.”
• Speaking on Sunday, IDF Chief of Staff Zamir said, “The IDF, through the Israeli Air Force, has paved the way to Tehran and is striking the regime’s infrastructure and nuclear programme with precision and scale beyond what the enemy had anticipated.”
• He added, “The offensive operations we are conducting in Iran are reshaping the strategic reality of the State of Israel. We are removing an existential threat and reinforcing our security.”
• The basis of Israel’s successful operation so far has been to establish the air corridor to Iran and air supremacy over Iran. This was achieved as a result of operations over the last year that saw the systematic destruction of Hezbollah’s advanced anti-aircraft batteries and similar capabilities in Syria after the Assad regime fell from power. These systems would have provided the Iranians with early-detection capabilities. 
• This in turn has created a new dynamic whereby the IAF no longer needs to rely on expensive weapons (that they have in smaller quantity) that are fired from a great distance (hundreds of kms). Over the last couple of day pilots are able to attack their targets from much closer, using cheaper more readily available munitions. The IAF has also deployed drones that can search for their targets over Tehran.  
• Although the Trump administration is not formally part of the offensive, their commitment to maintain the supply of munitions is an important factor in the Israeli calculus. 
• The US, through CENTCOM is also playing an important role behind the scenes, supporting Israel defensively, with intelligence gathering and crucially helping to  provide early warning of incoming Iranian launches. 
• As part of the IDF’s efforts to defend the home front they announced this morning that one third of Iran’s surface-to-surface missile launchers have been destroyed.

Looking ahead: Both Israel and Iran are threatening to intensify their attacks.  

• President Trump has committed to continue to support Israel in defending itself, though he has expressed hope that the war would end. Trump said that it was time for a deal but sometimes there was no choice but to fight.
• The US is also increasing diplomatic pressure on Iran by enhancing its military presence in locations from which it could strike Iran. This includes the Diego Garcia base on the Chagos Islands.

What’s happened: The Israeli Air Force (IAF) has continued their campaign again Iranian nuclear sites, missile launchers and infrastructure.

• Throughout Friday and Saturday night, Iran launched repeated waves of ballistic missiles towards Israel.       
• Of the over two hundred missiles fired the majority were intercepted, although several landed in residential areas. Eight Israelis were killed overnight Saturday night / Sunday morning bringing the total number of Israeli dead to 11.
• In the northern Arab town of Tamra four women from the Khatib family were killed. The victims are  Manar al-Qasssam Khatib and her two daughters, Hala and Shada, and another relative, Manal Diab Khatib. Fourteen people were wounded, one of whom is in critical condition. 
• In Bat Yam four people were killed by a missile that struck a 14-story building. The victims are an eight-year-old girl, a ten-year-old boy, a 60-year-old woman and an 80-year-old woman.
• Rescue workers are still scouring the destroyed building for victims and survivors. Thirty-five people are still defined as missing. 
• Another missile struck a building in Rehovot. Between Bat Yam and Rehovot a total of 207 people were wounded. Six have been hospitalised in serious condition; the others are listed as being in either moderate or light condition. 
• Impacts were also reported elsewhere with sirens sounding across much of central Israel, Ashdod, and parts of Jerusalem.
• According to an Iranian media outlet, 215 people have been killed so far in Israeli air strikes, and 650 have been wounded. 

Yemen: In support of Iran, on Friday evening, the Houthis fired a single ballistic missile from Yemen which impacted in the West Bank town of Sa’ir, injuring five Palestinians including three children. 

• Hours later, a number of drones were also launched at Israel from Yemen and intercepted in transit.
• Israel is also reported to have launched an airstrike on Yemen targeting Muhammad Al-Ghamari, who is the Houthis’ chief of staff. While it is unclear whether or not the assassination attempt was successful, it is the first time that any state has attempted to kill a senior member of the Houthis’ leadership, with previous operations instead focusing on degrading and destroying their military infrastructure. Israel is yet to formally comment on these reports. 

Context: The preliminary assessments suggest that Israel has made some remarkable achievements so far.

• In the opening strike, the IDF and Mossad inflicted heavy damage, killing an array of senior military commanders and senior nuclear scientists. The strikes caused severe damage to nuclear facilities in Natanz and Isfahan, as well as incapacitating numerous defence systems and ballistic missiles production sites.
• Israel has now established a flight corridor to Iran and air supremacy over western Iran and Tehran. 
• However, Israel has not yet completed its overarching objective, and hasn’t yet destroyed Iran’s nuclear programme and its missile capabilities. 
• The attacks on Israel’s home front reinforce the urgency of Israel’s campaign to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. Any of the hundreds of ballistic missiles launched at Israel could have been armed with a nuclear warhead, had Iran been allowed to achieve its goal.
• Although several nuclear sites have already been targeted, the Fordow site hasn’t yet been significantly damaged. The IAF does have some capabilities, but is limited in their ability to penetrate a site built under a mountain. The US are believed to be the only ones with the necessary capabilities, so Israel may well try to persuade the US to strike Fordow. Only a strike deep underground in Fordow will remove the nuclear threat for the foreseeable future.
• Although, so far Israel has acted independently, the assumption is that the US gave tacit consent. Officials in Jerusalem sense that Trump is pleased with the results of the strike on Iran so far, but has not yet decided whether to join. 
• With or without the US, Israel still has a full list of targets for the coming days and the fighting is expected to continue. 
• Prime Ministers Starmer and Netanyahu spoke with each other on Friday afternoon. A Downing Street read out says that “The Prime Minister was clear that Israel has a right to self-defence and set out the UK’s grave concerns about Iran’s nuclear programme. He reiterated the need for de-escalation and a diplomatic resolution, in the interests of stability in the region.”
• Prime Minister Starmer has also deployed additional British forces to the Middle East, including fighter jets while refusing to rule out the prospect of acting in defence of Israel as the UK previously did during Iran’s missile attacks of April and October 2024.
• Meanwhile, Iran has threatened to attack British, American, and French troops stationed in the region if they act to defend Israel.
• The initial successes is a form of a corrective experience, particularly for military intelligence and operations following the resounding failure around October 7. As veteran analyst Nahum Barnea wrote, “That may not be any consolation, but it is compensation.” 
• Even among some of his critics there is recognition that Netanyahu also deserves credit for making such a fateful and decisive decision.   

Looking ahead: Officials estimate that several more days of fighting lie ahead, and the Israeli public must prepare accordingly.

• Israel remains in lockdown, with the airport closed, only essential workplaces will be open today. Schools remain closed, with remote learning in place at least until the end of this week. 
• There is speculation whether Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is a target or not, with a senior defence official cryptically telling the Wall Street Journal that he is “not off limits.”

What’s happening: In the early hours of Friday morning Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, targeting the Iranian nuclear programme and significant military targets.

• The attack began with waves of Israel Air Force (IAF) strikes.
• The first wave targeted Iran’s General Staff and the headquarters of its intelligence service in Tehran. Immediately thereafter, the second wave struck some nuclear installations and missile facilities, including:
  • Nuclear site in Natanz, one of the central sites of the Iranian nuclear programme. 
  • The heavy water reactor in Arak
  • the Parchin military facility 
  • The Khondab nuclear reactor
  • Other targets in Kermanshah, Ilam, Qom, Hamadan, Khorramabad, Piranshahr, Tabriz and Qasr-e Shirin.
• The third aerial group targeted several dozen high-ranking Iranians military and government officials. 
• According to Iranian state TV the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander (IRGC) Hossein Salami was eliminated along with three of the organisation’s senior officers had been eliminated in the preliminary air strike. 
• Other high-ranking Iranians, including Iranian Chief of Staff Mohammed Bagheri, Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani and the head of the country’s air and space force, and nuclear scientists have also been successfully targeted. 
• It is understood that pre-deployed Mossad commando units operating on the ground in Iran were involved in launching precision-guided munitions that targeted Iranian surface-to-air missiles, other air defences, as well as ground-to-ground missiles that would have been used in a retaliatory strike against Israel.

Israel’s Home Front: This morning, the Israel’s home front was on highest state of alert as Iran launched their drone counter attack against Israel. 

• Later in the morning IDF announced that all drones have been intercepted and the immediate danger has passed. 
• According to Home Front Command directives, there will be no school activities and public gathering. The Pride Parade that was scheduled to take place today in Tel Aviv has been cancelled.
• Defence Minister Katz declared a special situation, “In wake of the State of Israel’s pre-emptive attack on Iran, a missile and drone attack against Israel and the civilian population is expected in the immediate timeframe.” 

Context: This operation has been planned for years, as the Iranian nuclear programme was perceived as the greatest existential threat to the State of Israel.

• It is understood the whole of the IAF was participating in the attack.       
• Operation Rising Lion is a reference to the biblical verse, “Behold, a people that rises like a lioness and raises itself like a lion.” Numbers 23:24.
• Israeli officials issued clarifications saying that the operation’s objective was not to topple the Iranian regime, but to remove existential threats to Israel.
• The air strikes began after Israel assessed that the Iranian regime had enriched fissile material for 15 nuclear bombs.
• In the last few months, Israeli intelligence reached an assessment that the Iranian’s were close to the point of nuclear no-return. 
• The IDF understood that for the first time that the Iranians were developing a secret plan to make technological progress on all aspects of developing nuclear weapons. According to the intelligence, this included efforts to manufacture thousands of kilograms of enriched uranium, spread out across the country in underground sites. 
• In addition, real progress was seen in the Iranian effort to manufacture all the parts of a nuclear bomb, included technological and operational components.
• As part of a diversion, Netanyahu announced yesterday that he and his family were going on vacation in northern Israel before the wedding of his son in order to signal to the Iranians that Israel did not intend to launch an attack.
• The elimination of Hossein Salami, along with the commander of Iran’s armed forces, Mohammad Bagheri, is highly significant. Salami was the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). He joined the IRGC when the Iran-Iraq War erupted in the early 1980s. In the past he commanded the air force and the navy of the Revolutionary Guard. He was appointed deputy commander of IRGC in 2009, and he was appointed the commander in April 2019. 
• Salami was known for his aggressive, violent and defiant speeches against the US, Israel and the Arab states. He espoused a hardline ideology and promoted the vision of “exporting the Islamic revolution” and expanding Iran’s influence in regional and international theatres. Under his command, they intensified its involvement in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen, and stressed the importance of “jihad” against Iran’s enemies. 
• Salami was very close to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and appeared by his side at many events. Together with Khamenei, Salami also led Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.  
• Salami’s elimination is being compared to that of other senior officials, such as Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah and top Hamas officials. Salami was one of the more prominent faces of Iran’s terrorist battle against Israel specifically and against the West in general. His elimination is likely to have a major impact on Iran’s security leadership in the immediate term.
• The IRGC, led by Salami, was a prime suspect in the recent attempted terrorist attack against the Israeli Embassy in London.

Looking ahead: Having launched the initial attacks, it is unclear how long the whole operation could take to destroy the entire nuclear programme. 

• Israel is bracing for the Iranian response, it could take a combination of three forms:
  • Ballistic missiles, in which case the Arrow 3 system will be activated. 
  • Another option are cruise missiles, which take two hours to reach Israel, against which Israel can use the Iron Dome and David’s Sling systems. 
  • Drones, which take nine hours and against which Israel can use the Patriot and Iron Dome systems.

What’s happened: The entire region was jolted by the American announcement that the US was withdrawing its diplomats from Iraq and authorising voluntary departures of military families from countries throughout the Persian Gulf. 

• The announcement appears to signal an imminent attack on Iran. It is not clear if the American action is in anticipation of an Israeli attack or an American one. Indeed, Citing five unnamed sources NBC News reported Israel was considering launching an attack on Iran within days. A senior Iranian official stated that the country had been alerted by a ‘friendly country in the region’ about a possible Israeli attack.
• Negotiations between the US and Iran in Oman have been at an impasse over the issue of uranium enrichment. The removal of non-essential American personnel from the region could be intended as a signal to Iran of the seriousness of the American position in the hope of moving the Iranians closer to a deal.
• In Vienna, the board of governors of the IAEA concluded this morning that Iran is in breach of its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The US, UK, France, and Germany, have introduced a motion of censure on the Iranian nuclear activity which was revealed last week. Such a censure motion, if passed, could force the implementation of so-called “snap-back” sanctions that were lifted as part of the 2015 nuclear deal signed by Iran and six major powers and grounded in a UN Security Council resolution. 
• Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Oren Marmorstein called on the international community to “respond decisively to Iran’s non-compliance and take measures to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.”
• Regarding the possible censure vote, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi posted a message on social media on Wednesday that censure “will compel Iran to react STRONGLY.”

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump spoke on the phone yesterday for 40 minutes, as the President appraised the prime minister on the latest developments in the US talks with Iran over their nuclear programme. 

• According to the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office, “President Trump told the Prime Minister that the United States has presented a reasonable proposal to Iran and is expected to receive its response in the coming days.” 
• In Washington, President Trump said it was a “very good” call, and also revealed that Iran is involved in the ceasefire negotiations with Hamas. Speaking at the White House, President Trump said, “Gaza right now is in the midst of a massive negotiation between us and Hamas and Israel, and Iran, actually, is involved and we’ll see what’s going to happen with Gaza. We want to get the hostages back. That’s all I can tell you.”
• Regarding the Iranian nuclear programme, the president said, “We are trying to do something with Iran. They are very good negotiators. They’re tough, sometimes too tough.”
• Following the call, Netanyahu convened his senior ministers and heads of the security establishment for a consultation focused on Iran.
• Meanwhile in Tehran, the Iranian National Security Council issued it latest threat against Israel saying, “If the Zionist regime wants to take action against our nuclear centres and facilities, it will definitely and surely face our reaction. For the counterattack, the nuclear facilities of the regime will be targeted and operated upon with advanced weaponry.” 
• The Iranians have also been claiming they will soon reveal, what they are describing as, “a national intelligence achievement,” which could include an expose on Israel’s alleged nuclear capacity as well as a potential database of targets inside Israel.
• In Vienna yesterday, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors convened to discuss a comprehensive report published in late May that found that Iran has conducted covert nuclear activities at three sites that have been under investigation for years, using materials it had not reported to the agency. 

Context: The call from Trump came as Prime Minister Netanyahu was facing cross-examination in his corruption trial. 

• At the same time Netanyahu is also facing a political crisis, with his ultra-Orthodox partners threatening to vote in a no-confidence motion to bring down the government over the absence of legislation to exempt ultra-Orthodox men from service in the military. 
• The call also coincides with suggestions that the US-Iran nuclear talks have reached a deadlock and could soon breakdown completely. The fundamental issue remains whether Iran will be allowed to enrich uranium on its own soil for what it defines as a civilian nuclear programme. The latest US proposal reportedly allows limited, low-level enrichment inside Iran for a time. The President recently stated, “They don’t want to give up what they have to give up. You know what that is: They seek enrichment….They have given us their thoughts on the deal, and I said it’s just not acceptable.” 
• Trump’s claim that Iran is also involved in the hostage negotiations comes as surprise, as Israel marks 613 days with 55 hostages still in captivity.
• Netanyahu and his Likud allies could well be using the crisis with Iran as a further reason to maintain the governing coalition and not go for early elections at this sensitive time. 
• In fact, Israeli media has reported that US Ambassador Mike Huckabee has been meeting ultra-Orthodox politicians claiming that “government stability is important for addressing the Iranian issue.”
• This in turn, led to Leader of the Opposition Lapid to state on X, “Since I have no doubt that Ambassador Huckabee respects Israel’s independence and its democracy, I hope and believe that the report that he is interfering in Israel’s internal politics and trying to help Netanyahu with the ultra-Orthodox in the military draft law crisis are not true. Israel is not a protectorate.”
• Netanyahu’s long held position has called for the full dismantlement of the Iranian nuclear programme (the so-called Libya option), but it is understood that he has assured the US administration that Israel won’t launch an attack while negotiations are ongoing. 

Latest strikes in Yemen: Following a warning last night, Israel Navy missile boats this morning attacked Houthi targets in the Hodeida port. 

• This follows persistent missile attacks towards Israel, but is the first time that Israel has deployed the navy rather than the Israeli Air Force to engage Houthi targets.    
• According to the IDF Spokesperson’s Office, “The attack was designed to entrench the damage to the military use made of the port, which was attacked by the IDF this past year and has continued to serve terrorist activity. The port that was attacked was used to transfer arms and is another example of the cynical use and exploitation of civilian infrastructure by the terrorist Houthi regime to facilitate terrorist operations. The attack was executed after numerous prior warnings by the IDF to minimise possible civilian casualties in the area.”

Looking ahead: Following the security consultation, it is anticipated that Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer and Mossad chief Barnea will once more travel to the US and meet special envoy Witkoff, who is leading the US-Iran nuclear talks (as well as the hostages portfolio).  

• The US and E3 countries (the UK, France and Germany) plan to submit a draft resolution to the IAEA board declaring Iran in violation of its commitments to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Such a resolution could pave the way to setting in motion the “snapback” mechanism, reinstating all UN Security Council sanctions on Iran that were lifted as part of the 2015 JCPOA.
• In the Knesset, the preliminary vote to disband the government will be held tomorrow, but this will still leave time for a compromise to be reached before three further readings and votes that will dissolve the Knesset and lead to elections.
• American and Iranian negotiators are due to meet for a sixth round of nuclear talks on Sunday in Oman.

What’s happened: The Israeli Air Force launched a series of strikes against Houthi targets in the Yemeni port city of Hodeidah. 

• Approximately twenty jets participated in the strikes which the IDF says targeted “terrorist infrastructure sites” used as a central supply source for the Houthis, as well as where Iranian weapons and military equipment were transferred to them.
• A concrete plant east of the city was also struck, with the IDF describing it as a “significant economic resource” for the group.
• Israeli officials have confirmed that although the strikes were closely coordinated with the US, they were not a joint operation.
• In response, the Houthis said they remain “undeterred,” and indicated their intent to escalate attacks on both Israel and international shipping operating in and around the Red Sea.
• The attack follows weeks of escalating missile and drone campaign against Israel since the breakdown of the Gaza ceasefire in March, and a missile striking the Ben Gurion Airport compound this Sunday. 
• Following a technical failure and unsuccessful interception, the missile landed in an open area, causing no direct damage to the airport, though eight people were injured by shrapnel and shockwaves caused by the blast. 
• Ben Gurion Airport was briefly closed, but operations resumed within approximately an hour.
• The majority of foreign airliners have suspended their flights to and from Israel, but Israeli carriers’ operations remain largely unaffected.
• The Houthis claimed the Ben Gurion strike as a victory, stating that air travel to and from Israel was no longer safe and they were imposing a comprehensive air blockade.
• Israel reacted angrily, with Prime Minister Netanyahu threatening both the Houthis and “their patron” Iran in the hours after the missile strike.
• Iran has denied ordering the attack, with its foreign ministry saying that “The actions of the Yemenis in support of the Palestinian people was an independent decision stemming from their feeling of solidarity.”
• President Trump responded by saying that “Every shot fired by the Houthis will be looked upon, from this point forward, as being a shot fired from the weapons and leadership of IRAN, and IRAN will be held responsible, and suffer the consequences, and those consequences will be dire!”

Context:  Despite the Houthis escalating attacks since March – having launched around 26 ballistic missiles attacks as well as UAV’s – these are the first air strikes Israel has carried out in Yemen since December 2024. 

• Since November 2023 the Houthis have launched around 370 missiles and drones towards Israel. Israel’s anti-missile defence system has around a 95 per cent successful interception rate. Israel says that most were intercepted outside of Israel’s airspace. 
• Due to the attacks on international shipping lanes, the Trump administration has taken the lead in responding to the Houthi threat, and has launched approximately a thousand retaliatory air strikes up, with some assistance from the RAF.
• Despite President Trump’s consistent threats to significantly degrade the group’s capabilities, American and British actions seems to have had limited to no deterring effect on the Houthis, with missile and drone attacks continuing and showing no sign of abatement. 
• However, the significance of a direct hit in the Ben Gurion area causing Israel’s national airport to close (albeit briefly) could not be ignored, and Israeli officials felt it demanded a direct Israeli military response.
• The IDF’s choice of targeting the port of Hodeidah is viewed as symbolic, targeting a port for a port. 
• It is probable that the US and UK will continue conducting the majority of air strikes against the Houthis, and Israel will only intervene again in the event of another major successful missile or drone attack, especially if it causes loss of life.