Iran and their Proxies 6

Updated March 4, 2026

Pressure on Iran mounts as a new Supreme Leader is anticipated

Key developments:

Since the start of Operation “Roaring Lion”, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) has successfully targeted approximately 300 Iranian missile launchers. So far they have made more than 1,600 sorties around-the-clock in order to locate and target launchers and missile stockpiles in order to reduce fire toward the Israeli home front. The IDF has also struck regime assets including dozens of command centres of Iranian Internal Security, and Basij command centres.
The IAF destroyed a secret underground facility in Tehran that was used to develop nuclear weapon components. IDF Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Defrin said last night, “In this compound, a group of nuclear scientists operated covertly. They advanced and developed capabilities and knowledge for the attainment of nuclear weapons. After we severely degraded the efforts to develop nuclear weapons in Operation Rising Lion, the regime relocated some of its capabilities to secret bunkers. The regime tried to renew its efforts and to conceal them, on the assumption that we would not detect that. They were wrong.”
In parallel, the IAF as struck approximately 60 targets belonging to Hezbollah, Including senior commanders, weapons storage facilities, command centres, missile launchers and additional terrorist infrastructure.
According to the anti-regime Iran International, Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the killed Iranian supreme leader, has been elected to succeed his father under pressure from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. However, the New York Times reports he has not yet been formally elected, but is the leading candidate to serve as the next supreme leader. Other potential candidates for the Supreme Leader position include:
- Hassan Khomeini – grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, often viewed as comparatively pragmatic,
- Sadeq Larijani – former judiciary chief and brother of Ali Larijani,
- Hassan Rouhani – former president and a leading figure of the regime’s more centrist camp, and
- Alireza Arafi – a senior cleric and member of the Assembly of Experts.
- More info about the succession question is available in our latest podcast.

Context: Israel and the US continue their pressure campaign to create the conditions for regime change.

Beyond the kinetic attacks the US have been holding talks with Kurdish leaders in northern Iran and Iraq, with Baloch militia leaders in southeastern Iran and with other minority groups. The aim is to help prepare for the day after once the fighting stops. They understand that one of the keys to success will be enlisting support from the regular Iranian army, among public Iranian officials and local leaders.
Under the leadership of US CENTCOM, Israel, regional Arab states and reportedly the RAF are assisting in intercepting Iranian missiles and drones. The Gulf Cooperation Council sent a message to the Iranians threatened to join the attack on Iran.
When Hezbollah chose to join the war overnight between Sunday and Monday, it did so with a very limited barrage. They felt compelled to act following the elimination of Khamanei, as he served as their highest religious authority as well as Iranian Supreme Leader, but fearful over the Israeli response. Israel had plans for several months to further downgrade their military capacity and appears to now be taking that opportunity.
Israel is hoping a decisive victory in Iran will have significant repercussions for Hezbollah, and alongside a more muscular approach by the Lebanese Army could lead to its defeat. Like with Iran, Israeli officials remain fully coordinated with the US over the Lebanese theatre.

March 2, 2026

Hezbollah attacks as nine Israeli killed by Iranian missile

What’s happening: Hezbollah launched a rocket and drone attack on northern Israel last night just before 1:00 am local time, effectively ending the ceasefire in place in Lebanon since its defeat in November 2024. The Lebanese terrorist group, funded and trained by Iran, said that its rocket attack on Israel was in response to Israel’s elimination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

Lebanese state media reported that the Lebanese Justice Minister ordered the arrest of those responsible for the rocket fire on Israel last night. In the November 2024 ceasefire, Lebanon committed itself to disarming Hezbollah, a process that had been underway, albeit not at a pace or thoroughness that was satisfactory to Israel and other parties to the ceasefire, including the United States.
Israel responded with a massive military operation against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, including in the Dahiya Quarter of Beirut, the Beqaa Valley, and southern Lebanon. “We are not only operating defensively – we are now going on the offensive as well,” Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir announced this morning.“ We must prepare for many prolonged days of combat ahead.” Lebanese officials reported 39 deaths and 149 injuries as a result of the Israeli air strikes this morning.
According to a Saudi media report, the head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc Mohammad Raad was eliminated earlier today.
The IDF’s Arabic-Language Spokesperson Lt. Col. Ella Waweya called on civilians to evacuate 53 Lebanese villages along the country’s southern border with Israel.
Prime Minister Starmer announced a partial reversal of his decision not to allow US forces to use British bases to conduct attacks on Iran, following the targeting by Iran of British bases in both Cyprus and the Gulf. He emphasised in his public statement that Britain would not be participating in offensive operations. “We were not involved in the initial strikes on Iran,” he said in a video released by Number 10, “and we will not join offensive action now.”
Nine Israelis were killed in Beit Shemesh yesterday when an Iranian missile slammed into a bomb shelter inside a synagogue. It is the deadliest single incident caused by any Iranian missile in Israel in either the current war or the one last June.

Context: The expansion of the war into Lebanon comes on a backdrop of Israeli operations in the weeks preceding the new war preparing for just such an eventuality. At least eight different reported air strikes took place between February 16 and February 22. Fourteen people were killed in these strikes, including two Hamas operative and ten members of a Hezbollah rocket cell. In the latter strike, which took place on February 20, much of Hezbollah’s long-rage rocket store was reportedly destroyed as well.

Lebanon was not the only country dragged into the Iranian regime’s struggle to survive the Israeli-American offensive. Iranian drones hit the RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, causing damages but no injuries. Meanwhile, Iranian rockets and drones have been launched at targets in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan, and Iraq, largely, but not entirely, at US facilities including airbases and embassies.
In Saudi Arabia, a major oil refinery in Ras Tanura, near the border with Bahrain, was hit by debris from intercepted drones. According to the Saudi Ministry of Energy, the fire at the refinery is now under control, no one was injured, and there should be no impact on supplies.
The air offensive in Iran took on a very different character yesterday.
- On Saturday morning, the war opened with Israeli-led targeted strikes on senior regime figures, including most notably the Supreme Leader Khamenei. Throughout the day, US and Israeli planes targeted missile launchers and other military facilities, with particular emphasis on suppression of enemy air defence (SEAD) operations.
- With air superiority achieved, a new wave of airstrikes were launched at regime targets, particularly those associated with the brutal crackdown on protestors in January. Command and control systems, bases, and headquarters of the Revolutionary Guards and the notorious Basij militia were the principal targets yesterday, with unconfirmed reports that hundreds and possibly more were killed in these operations.
- If protestors once more take to the streets, it will be Basij and Revolutionary Guard men who are tasked with once more putting them down by force.
The choice of targets would indicate that the US is keen to move on all four of the issues it had raised with Iranians in negotiations that took place before the onset of hostilities: the nuclear programme, the ballistic missile programme, regional proxies, and the violent crackdown.
It further indicates that American planners both see regime change as a real possibility and but do not believe that American forces should or could be the ones to bring it to fruition.
This operation appears intended not just to reduce Iran’s capability to threaten its neighbours, including close US allies, but also, when the day comes, to make it impossible for the Islamist regime to be able to protect itself from the wrath of its own public.
The IDF released figures from its own assessments of operations in the first two days of the war in Iran. According IDF estimates, hundreds of Iranian missile were destroyed along with 200 launchers, roughly 50% of Iran’s total before the onset of the current war. Iran’s central explosive production site was destroyed, as were multiple sites connected to missile production and the production of anti-tank weapons for shipment to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The reaction of UK politicians has been mixed. Keen to avoid comparisons to Tony Blair’s Iraq war, PM Kier Starmer has been quick to distance himself from the strikes, as some claim the war on Iran is illegal. By comparison, others claim the Prime Minister has embarrassed the UK, by leaving our key allies to fight a common enemy alone. With the recent by-election loss, and local elections coming in May 2026, the government are clearly nervous that this conflict will be used as a tool for opponents, such as the Green party, to defeat Labour.

Looking ahead: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz arrives in Washington today. His position on the war in Iran has been only slightly less ambiguous than Starmer’s and Macron’s. Yesterday he told reporters that “we share the US’ interest in seeing an end to this regime’s terror and a halt to dangerous nuclear and ballistic armament” and that “we are not lecturing our partners on their military strikes against Iran.” All this was said without actually endorsing the Israeli-American operation and explicitly casting doubt on whether it could achieve its stated goals.

IDF Spokesperson Effie Defrin said this morning that Israel was not planning a ground operation in Lebanon. He further said that the war in Iran “will last as long as it lasts.”

March 1, 2026

IAF eliminates Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei

What’s happening: On Saturday morning, Israel and the US launched a series of joint air strikes against Iran’s military capacity as well as targeting their military and political leadership.

According to Prime Minister Netanyahu, the operation’s intent was “to remove the existential threat posed to Israel by the regime of the Ayatollahs in Iran.”
One of these strikes by the Israeli Air Force (IAF) was a successful operation that eliminated the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.
The initial strikes simultaneously targeting three key hubs for military and political leadership. Among the reported targets were President Pezeshkian, the IRGC and conventional military’s leadership, and the Ministry of Intelligence and Security’s headquarters. The IDF has confirmed that senior Iranian fatalities included Ali Shamkani, the Supreme Leader’s Advisor for Security Affairs and Secretary of the Defence Council, Mohammad Pakpour, overall commander of the IRGC, and Aziz Nasirzadeh, Minister of Defence.
In addition, the IDF also targeted the ballistic missile infrastructure in order to limit retaliatory strikes against Israel.
The IDF has said that their jets “dropped hundreds of munitions targeting approximately 500 objectives, including aerial defence systems and missile launchers, in a number of locations in Iran…which allowed the expansion of the IAF’s aerial superiority over Iranian aerial territory, and severely degraded the offensive capabilities of the Iranian regime – the launch sites in western Iran.”
Iran retaliated within hours firing waves of missiles and drones at Israel and US military bases around the region in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar. A number of civilian facilities have been struck, including iconic Burj Al Arab hotel in Dubai, UAE.
Israeli casualties have been limited. A woman in her forties was killed when a missile directly struck a building in Tel Aviv. Twenty-five people were wounded in the strike, including one man who is hospitalised in serious condition. One man was reportedly killed by falling debris in the UAE.
Bahrain, home of the US 5th Fleet, has been targeted particularly heavily with large numbers of Shahed unmanned drone strikes in the Juffair district.
A number of Syrian nationals were also killed when a missile fell in the Druze city of Sweida, and an impact in the Jordanian city of Irbid caused limited damage.
The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait have all strongly condemned Iran’s strikes, with Abu Dhabi asserting its right to respond. Saudi Arabia has also said that “in light of this unjustified aggression, the Kingdom affirms that it will take all necessary measures to defend its security and protect its territory, citizens and residents, including with the option of responding to the aggression.”
Hezbollah and other regional proxies have condemned the operation, but so far refrained from involving themselves and firing on Israeli or US troops. The Houthis have threatened shipping in the Red Sea.

Context: The targeting of Khamenei marks the first time Israel has assassinated the leader of an enemy country.

His elimination in the opening strike, alongside the elimination of the defence minister, the chief of staff and the commander of the IRGC is viewed as another very impressive intelligence and operational achievement.
Relying on the element of surprise, the IDF first struck 40 senior Iranian officials at two sites within the first minute of the attack. This was achieved due to its advanced capabilities particularly in real time intelligence and subsequent speed of intelligence – air force coordination
In the second stage, IDF cleared the path by targeting what still remained of Iran’s air-defences, including its short-range systems, so as to prevent them from intercepting incoming US Tomahawk missiles.
Within the division of labour, the US prioritised infrastructure targets, primarily from the USS Abraham Lincoln and focused on southwestern Iran, the IRGCs’ naval forces and the Iran Navy, and the Bandar Abbas port, in an effort to prevent the Strait of Hormuz from being blocked. Whist Israel then prioritised neutralising the ballistic missiles and their launchers.
The whole operation had been planned and tightly coordinated for months between Israeli and US commanders. Unlike the attacks in June 2025 that was Israeli led with the US joining a few days later, this is viewed as a joint operation from the start.
This time Iran decided to respond by targeting not only Israel but also US bases and other assets in the Gulf. As a result of this approach (as well as Israeli success in striking the launchers) dozens, rather than hundreds, of missiles were fired at Israel. These arrived in an endless trickle as opposed to large barrages. This means that Israeli civilians are spending a longer time in bomb shelters, but more of the missiles and drones are being intercepted. The Israeli public is being urged to remain vigilant due to fallen shrapnel from intercepted missiles.
In parallel to the strike on Iran, the IDF deployed reinforcements along the land borders, particularly with Lebanon and Syria in case any terror groups tried to stage a surprise overland attack.
In the lead up to the strikes were three rounds of failed nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran which were mediated by Oman, and held in Muscat and Switzerland. Briefing journalists, US officials claimed that Iranian negotiators were offered “free nuclear fuel forever” in a bid to reduce the threat of it enriching uranium, but this was refused.
President Trump was reportedly “not thrilled” with Iran’s conduct during the most recent round of negotiations, and this likely pushed him to initiate a pre-planned operation against its leadership establishment and missile programmes.
In a joint statement with France and Germany, the UK explicitly stated “we did not participate in these attacks, ”whilst condemning “Iranian attacks in the region,” and called for “a resumption of negotiations.”
In a statement of his own later in the day, Prime Minister Starmer reasserted the UK’s abstention from involvement while criticising the Iranian regime, highlighting the threat it posed to dissidents and local Jewish communities, and condemning its attacks on regional allies.

Looking ahead: The Iranian regime will in the short term be led by a council of senior officials, with the big question of who will replace the Supreme Leader.

It remains unlikely that air strikes alone can lead to regime change. Conventional wisdom suggests that in the absence of troops on the ground, the Iranian people will need to return to the streets, but not until the air assault is completed.
The current assessment is that the air campaign will last several days before President Trump declares it is over.

February 25, 2026

Trump warns Iran as US aircraft deployed to Israel

What’s happening: In his State of the Union address last night before Congress, President Trump spoke at length about Iran, and reiterated that military action remains an option if Iran refuses a strict deal on its nuclear programme.

Calling Iran’s leaders “terrible people,” he claimed that they had killed 32,000 protesters in the recent crackdown, and that they were working on ballistic missile capacities that could put the United States within their missile’s range.
Regarding the ongoing negotiations, he said: “They want to make a deal, but we haven’t heard those secret words: ‘We will never have a nuclear weapon.’ My preference is to solve this problem through diplomacy, but one thing is certain, I will never allow the world’s number one sponsor of terror — which they are by far — to have a nuclear weapon. Can’t let that happen.”
CENTCOM confirmed yesterday that a group of the US’s most advanced fighter jet, the F-22 Raptor, had arrived in Israel. Planespotters in England reported twelve F-22s taking off from the RAF base Lakenheath, where they had been stationed. Only one returned. The F-22 is the most advanced stealth fighter in the world, with a shorter range and a much lower payload than the F-35. It would be unlikely to make a contribution to bombing strategic targets in Iran. Rather, its probable use would be to protect large bombers such as the B-2 or in an early suppression of enemy air defence (SEAD) at the beginning of an operation.
Additionally, US Air Force KC-135 Stratotanker aerial refuelling aircraft have been deployed to Ben Gurion International Airport.
After more than a month of reported quiet following the successful repression of anti-regime protests in Iran, renewed protests have begun at several Iranian universities and continued for four consecutive days.

Context: Even after the State of the Union speech, Israeli analysts and political leaders (at least those that are publicly quoted), do not have a firm grasp on President Trump’s intentions regarding Iran.

Most Israeli observers perceive Secretary of State Rubio and Secretary of War Hegseth as being the more hawkish members of the President’s inner circle, while negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are seen as the most committed to reaching an agreement that would stave off the need for a military operation.
Israeli officials continue to be concerned about the gaps between what are perceived as vital concerns for Israel and those of the United States. An imperfect agreement on the nuclear programme which leaves untouched the Iranian ballistic missile programme and Iranian support for its proxy armies of terrorist organisations is a terrible scenario for Israel.
It would see sanctions relief for the Islamic regime at precisely the regime’s greatest moment of weakness without addressing the core concerns of Israel regarding the regime’s conduct. Such a scenario would be a lifeline to a regime that is threatened internally as never before, while not addressing the threat it poses externally, including to Israel. For Israel, this is the worst of all possible outcomes.
To this end, the Israelis fear either a “bad deal” or a limited operation that could end in a bad deal. The Israeli preference is for either a deal that addresses all strategic concerns (nuclear, ballistic, proxies), or measures to continue to weaken the regime and edge it toward collapse. Such measures could include a decisive military operation (if one is possible) or just the maintenance of existing sanctions.
In the background of these concerns is the experience with Trump and the Houthis in 2025. There the President reached a ceasefire agreement with the terrorist who are in charge of half of Yemen and who have effectively closed Israel’s access to Red Sea shipping since 2023 that ended US involvement in the war but left Israel completely exposed, both to the Houthi blockade and even to continued Houthi rocket fire on Israel, which was not addressed at all by the US ceasefire agreement.
News of the mounting tension around Iran dominates headlines in Israel. There are reports of various hospitals preparing emergency facilities in reinforced underground bunkers, but for the time being there have been no special instructions from Home Front Command, and schools and businesses are all operating as normal.

Looking ahead: Indirect talks between the US and Iran continue, taking place in two sites.

On Thursday, the formal indirect negotiations are due to be renewed in Geneva, with Omani officials meeting with both sides separately.
In Muscat, Oman’s capital, the Iranians were due to present a detailed draft proposal for a nuclear agreement. No official word has been given on whether they have submitted the proposal, or what it contains. The only indication is that it was intended to be comprehensive, and not merely a declaration of principles.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives in Israel this afternoon. It is the second time an Indian Prime Minister has made an official visit to Israel. The first was also by Modi in 2017. He is due to address the Knesset in Jerusalem this afternoon.

February 19, 2026

Israel braces for Iran’s next move

What’s happening: Israel is on high alert for a dramatic escalation in Iran as the US continue to concentrate its forces in the region. However, schools remain open and citizens continue their daily routines.

Indirect talks in Geneva between the US and Iran continue to generate vastly contradictory assessments from named and unnamed officials from both countries.
Yesterday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told reporters that following talks in Geneva, there was agreement between the sides on a “set of guiding principles.” A statement from the Iranian Foreign Ministry reported that, in a call with IAEA chief Rafael Grossi, Araghchi “stressed the Islamic Republic of Iran’s focus on drafting an initial and coherent framework to advance future talks.”
Trump’s spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told reporters yesterday in the White House that “a little bit of progress” was made during the recent talks, but that the sides are “still very far apart on some issues.”
“The Iranians are expected to come back to us with some more detail in the next couple of weeks, so the president will continue to watch how this plays out” she added. “The president has been very clear with respect to Iran and any country around the world that diplomacy is always his first option and Iran would be very wise to make a deal.”
Reports in the US media indicate that the US could be ready to mount a massive aerial offensive in Iran by sometime this weekend.
Yesterday, the aircraft carrier USS Gerald Ford crossed the Straits of Gibraltar and is anticipated to reach the eastern Mediterranean within 48 hours.
Overnight, the IDF carried out multiple air strikes in Lebanon on Hezbollah targets, including weapons storage facilities, missile launchers and military installations being used to plan attacks against Israel.
The US is withdrawing all 1,000 of its troops from Syria, following the new Syrian regime’s consolidation of power, especially in the Kurdish regions of northeastern Syria. During the first Trump Administration, a similar decision by the President in 2018 led to an abrupt withdrawal of all 2,000 American troops then stationed in Syria as well.

Context: US demands centre on the Iranian nuclear programme and the ballistic missile programme, as well as ending support for its regional proxies and granting a measure of freedom to anti-regime protesters.

US officials in Geneva and Washington are quoted in various media outlets, usually anonymously, as being extremely sceptical about any agreement being reached, with many pointing out disputes even regarding which topics are on the table.
Israel’s Channel 12 quoted a senior US official as describing the talks in Geneva as a “nothing burger.” Another official quoted said Iran has until the end of the month to agree to a package of significant concessions on its nuclear program and that President Trump is “very close” to giving orders for a major strike.
A report in the Wall Street Journal described US military options for a weeks-long operation as including a campaign to eliminate dozens of Iranian political and military leaders in an effort to overthrow the government. Another option under consideration is a more limited air campaign targeting nuclear and ballistic-missile facilities.
The USS Gerald Ford will join the USS Abraham Lincoln, which is already positioned in the Persian Gulf region, as well as dozens of fuel tankers and more than 50 F-35, F-22 and F-16 fighter jets which have moved from various US bases to the region.
In the event of renewed fighting between Israel and Iran, Iran would likely wish to see Hezbollah use what is left of its missile capabilities against Israel, something Hezbollah refrained from doing during the Twelve Day War last June.
Israel believes that Iran has poured upwards of $1 billion worth of military aid to Hezbollah just over the last year, with the understanding that in a future war, Hezbollah would come to Iran’s side and attack Israel from Lebanon.
Israeli officials expect to receive some kind of short notice of an impending US operation, if one is ultimately ordered. There were reports in Israeli media that intelligence officials believe that Iran might refrain from attacking Israel if Israel is not involved in the US strike, largely out of fear of what an Israeli retaliation might look like. All sides consider it unlikely that US air strikes, however devastating, could on their own deliver regime change.

Looking ahead: Representatives of 45 nations will take part in the launch of President Trump’s Board of Peace today. The meeting will take place in the recently renamed Donald J. Trump US Institute of Peace on Constitution Avenue in Washington, DC. Trump is expected to announce $5 billion in pledges from donor nations for Gaza reconstruction, including $1.2 billion from each of two close US allies in the Gulf, Kuwait and the UAE.

The Board will likely make formal announcements of states participating in the planned International Stabilisation Force, but it is unclear for now if there will ever be a formal announcement of the ISF’s mandate or a detailed plan for the disarmament of Hamas.
A senior US official said that Secretary of State Rubio will visit Israel on February 28.

February 18, 2026

Ramadan begins amid disarmament disputes on every front

What’s happening: The beginning of Ramadan sees a tense quiet on all fronts.

In Jerusalem, thousands of police officers are in the streets as tens of thousands of worshippers are expected to make their way to the Al Aqsa Mosque in the Old City, especially on Fridays.
The Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) announced that Israel would grant permits to 10,000 West Bank Palestinians to enter Jerusalem for Friday prayers at the Al‑Aqsa Mosque compound. Similar to last year, only males aged 55 and above, women 50 and above, and children 12 and below when accompanied by a first-degree relative will be allowed entry.
In the West Bank, the IDF and Border Patrol have deployed special forces to deal with the increased tensions.
British Prime Minister Starmer spoke to US President Trump last night about negotiations between the US and Iran, as well as the situation in Gaza.
It comes as Iran claimed to have come to a “general understanding” with the US on the range of topics under negotiation, despite there being no confirmation of this from US officials. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who is leading the Iranian delegation in Geneva, told Iranian state media there had been “positive progress” in discussions on sanctions and nuclear programme.
On a Fox News interview yesterday, Vice President JD Vance described the recent talks with Iran as “in some ways… went well” but noted that the Islamic Republic remains unwilling to accept some of President Trump’s nuclear red lines. “Our primary interest here is we don’t want Iran to get a nuclear weapon. We don’t want nuclear proliferation,” Vance said, adding that the US would very much like to resolve this through a conversation and a diplomatic negotiation, but all options are on the table.
Also yesterday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei warned President Trump that the Islamic Republic cannot be overthrown.
Iran’s proxy force in Lebanon, Hezbollah, rejected the Lebanese government’s plan to continue the next stage of the disarmament which it accepted as a condition for the ceasefire that has been in place since November 2024.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem said in a speech on Monday that “what the Lebanese government is doing by focusing on disarmament is a major mistake because this issue serves the goals of Israeli aggression,” while Shia ministers walked out of Monday’s cabinet session in protest.

Context: All three ceasefires from the past year – in Lebanon, Iran, and Gaza – are stuck on one form or another on the issue of disarmament.

Despite public optimism from both Iranian and US officials about negotiations underway in Geneva, Israeli observers remain sceptical that any agreement can be reached and Israel continues to prepare for a US operation in Iran.
Iranian and US negotiators have not come to an agreement on shipping Iran’s stocks of enriched uranium out of the country, and the Iranians reject any limitations on the range of their ballistic missiles as “illogical,” in the words of the Supreme Leader Khamenei.
The Lebanese plan for disarming Hezbollah would see the Lebanese Armed Forces carry out a decommissioning of Hezbollah weapons in the area north of the Litani River and up to the Awali River, about 40 kilometres south of Beirut, over the next four months. This follows what the Lebanese claim is a successful decommissioning south of the Litani River and up to the border with Israel, though Israel disputes much of the Lebanese claim of successful disarmament there.
It is in Gaza, however, that the issue is most acute. Morocco, Albania, and Greece signalled yesterday that they could join Indonesia in contributing forces to the International Stabilisation Force, which is supposed to enforce the ceasefire in effect since October 2025. But none of these countries is preparing a force which can actively disarm Hamas.
With no path to Hamas disarmament, there is no guarantee that a renewal of combat is not in the offing. And as long as that is the case, it is unlikely any real investment in Gaza’s reconstruction will take place.

Looking ahead: Tomorrow in Washington the Board of Peace will hold its inaugural meeting with Israel represented by Foreign Minister Gideon Saar. The Board of Peace will have to formulate plans for reconstruction and disarmament, and it will have to lay out a mandate for the ISF. It will also likely formalise the role of the technocratic transitional government which has yet to enter Gaza.

The Iranian semi-official news agency Fars reported that Iran and Russia will conduct navy drills in the Sea of Oman and the northern Indian Ocean tomorrow.

February 17, 2026

Geneva talks begin as US forces mass in the Middle East

What’s happening: US and Iranian officials are set to begin a second round of talks today in Geneva in an effort to reach a deal that would avert a US military offensive on Iran. Geneva is also the site of US-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia, which are also set to begin today.

Both Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to take part in negotiations today.Yesterday, the Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi met in Geneva with the foreign minister of Oman, the country that hosted the previous round of talks.
President Trump said he would be indirectly involved in the negotiations. “and they’ll be very important” Trump called the Iranians “tough negotiators,” and said he hoped “they’re going to be more reasonable.” “I think they want to make a deal. I don’t think they want the consequences of not making a deal.”
Speaking at the Conference of Presidents of Major Jewish Organisations, Prime Minister Netanyahu said of his meetings with Trump days before, “I will not hide from you that I express my skepticism of any deal with Iran, because, frankly, Iran is reliable on one thing, they lie and they cheat.” He went on to say that Israel could support a potential deal as long as it met five conditions:
- All enriched material has to leave Iran.
- No enrichment capability in Iran, including the dismantling of existing equipment.
- A limitation on ballistic missile range to 300 kilometres, in line with the 1987 Missile Technology Control Regime.
- Dismantling Iran’s regional proxy network.
- A strict inspection regime.
Netanyahu did not indicate in his speech if President Trump agreed with him on the conditions for a deal with Iran and there were reports this morning that the Iranians had preconditioned their arrival in Geneva on the promise that the talks would focus only on the nuclear issue.

Context: If the reports on the Iranian conditions are true, it would leave at least two of Israel’s conditions for supporting a deal unanswered. Moreover, according to Iranian sources, the Iranians also insisted on a guarantee that they would retain some enrichment capability. If these Iranian claims are true, that would mean that three out of five of Israel’s minimal conditions for a deal are already off the table before the talks have even begun.

As talks renew, the US military presence in the region continues to increase. Media reports yesterday indicated that the USS Gerald Ford, the largest warship of any kind in the world, was on its way to the region from the Caribbean.
Once there, it will join the USS Abraham Lincoln, a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier already near Iran, and its entire strike group, including three guided missile destroyers. These were most recently spotted off the coast of Oman, some 700 km from Iran.
Closer still to Iran are two US destroyers and three smaller ships off the coast of Bahrain.
Meanwhile, the US has positioned F-15 and EA-18 jets in Muwaffaq Salti military base in Jordan, and a steady stream of refuelling jets have been moved to bases throughout the region over the course of the last few weeks.
The volume of hardware positioned around Iran far exceeds that which was arrayed around Venezuela before the US operation there earlier this winter, or, for that matter, what was positioned around Iran before Operation Midnight Hammer last June.
The Iranians, for their part, are also mobilising forces. Yesterday, the IRGC navy held war games exercises in the Straits of Hormuz. Analysts surmise that the intended audience of the exercise is not just the United States, whose attack would be unaffected by a successful Iranian blockade of the Straits, but rather US allies in the Gulf and elsewhere, whose economies and energy supply would be seriously harmed by such a move.

Looking ahead: US Senator Lindsey Graham, considered close to President Trump on foreign policy matters, said in Israel yesterday that the administration was “weeks, not months away from a decision on Iran.”

February 12, 2026

Trump and Netanyahu talk Iran strategy

What’s happening: President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu met for 2.5 hours yesterday in what was their seventh meeting since Trump returned to office in January 2025.

After the meeting, which lasted twice as long as was planned, Trump confirmed he had “insisted” negotiations with Iran would continue, but that “nothing definitive” had been agreed up to that point.
In a social media post, Trump expressed his preference to reach a negotiated settlement with Iran, but failing that “we will just have to see what the outcome will be”, invoking the US Air Force and Navy’s air strikes on Iranian nuclear targets on 22nd June 2025.
The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office wrote that Netanyahu had “emphasised the security needs of the State of Israel in the context of the negotiations, and the two leaders agreed on continued coordination and the close contact between them.”
Netanyahu also met with Secretary of State Rubio and signed on as a member of the Board of Peace for Gaza and signed another agreement stating that Israel accepts the terms of the charter of Trump’s board.
While there was no press conference after the meeting, reports in Jerusalem suggest the discussions touched on various scenarios in case the US negotiations with Iran collapse, or if a strike on Iran is launched whether the US would carry it alone.
Yesterday, Iran observed the 47th anniversary of the establishment of the Islamic Republic. It included mass parades in cities throughout Iran and displays of missiles, burning American and Israeli flags, throwing darts at Trump’s portrait and coffins with stickers showing the faces of American generals, including a picture of US CENTCOM Commander Cooper.
In his address, Iranian President Pezeshkian said that “wall of distrust” created by the West is hindering nuclear talks with the US, vowing that Iran will never surrender to excessive demands and aggression.
Also yesterday, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi told Russia Today that Iran will not negotiate on its missile programme or regional alliances but he believes the sides can strike a nuclear deal better than the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action signed in July 2015.

Context: The Trump-Netanyahu meeting follows US-Iranian nuclear negotiations resuming in Muscat on Friday where indirect talks were mediated by the Omani government. While the first round of negotiations yielded little beyond a mutual commitment from both the US and Iran to engage in further talks, no date for them has been set or announced.

Commenting on the negotiations, President Pezeshkian reasserted that Iran would not yield to “excessive” demands, but confirmed that it was ready for “any verification” of its nuclear programme in a seem willingness to engage with IAEA inspectors.
On Tuesday, Ali Larijani, Iran’s Secretary to the Supreme National Security Council, visited Oman to meet with Muscat’s Foreign Minister, Badr al-Busaidi who has served as the current round of talks’ main mediator. A photo released of the two men together shows al-Busaidi with a sheathed letter. Iran is known to communicate via mediators with written correspondence, and it is a realistic possibility that the letter contained a message intended for President Trump and his advisors.
While the US has entered negotiations with Iran insisting that its ballistic missile arsenal and regional proxies be addressed, Israel is concerned that these points may be conceded by Trump to achieve a nuclear deal.
Israel considers Iran’s missiles as a more imminent threat than that presented by Iran’s nuclear project. Officials in Jerusalem are also worried Israel might find itself hamstrung – as happened after the nuclear agreement that the Obama administration negotiated last decade.
While Iran has ostensibly indicated a level of willingness to engage with IAEA inspectors to ensure that its nuclear programme is only used for peaceful purposes, it has not demonstrated or indicated any flexibility on ceasing to enrich uranium on Iranian soil, nor on the issues of missiles or proxies. In fact, Tehran has gone as far as to specifically rule out negotiating on its missile stock, of which it is believed to possess 2000-3000.

Looking ahead: The Wall Street Journal has also reported that the US is currently preparing to deploy a second aircraft carrier group to the Middle East.

American officials said that the aircraft carrier USS George Washington, which is currently in Asia, and the carrier USS George H. W. Bush, which is off the East Coast of the United States, are presumably the candidates to head for the Middle East. That carrier would join the USS Abraham Lincoln which arrived in the region towards the end of January.
This deployment is likely intended to increase military pressure on Iran as negotiations potentially continue.

February 11, 2026

Netanyahu arrives to Washington

What’s happening: Prime Minister Netanyahu arrived in Washington for a working meeting with President Trump in what will be their seventh meeting since Trump’s second term began, barely one year ago.

Prior to his departure, Netanyahu said the focus would primarily be on Gaza and Iran. Netanyahu announced that he would “present our views regarding the principles in the negotiations to the president – the important principles – and in my view, they are important not only to Israel, but to anyone who wants peace and security in the Middle East.”
Netanyahu will also reportedly share with Trump intelligence regarding Iranian efforts to develop ballistic missiles capable of reaching Europe and the United States as well.
Trump continues to broadcast optimism at the prospect of reaching a deal with Iran that could avert an armed confrontation. “We can make a great deal with Iran,” he told an interviewer yesterday, while Netanyahu was en route. Of Netanyahu, he said, “He also wants a deal. He wants a good deal.”
The US is reportedly working on a proposal for the disarmament of Hamas in Gaza that would allow Hamas to keep the small arms it uses to maintain power in the Strip. The US proposal, details of which were leaked to the New York Times while Netanyahu was on his way to Washington, would only require Hamas to give up weapons that can be used to strike Israel, mainly rockets and launchers, in order for it be considered to have fulfilled its obligations in Phase Two of the Comprehensive Plan which ended the war last October.

Context: Leaks in the Israeli media indicate that senior Israeli officials were alarmed at the prospect of Trump securing a deal with Iran that would be far below Israel’s minimum needs.

Israeli officials believe that Trump is under enormous pressure from his allies in Turkey and Qatar to accede to a deal that leave Iran with some enrichment capabilities and that would not set back its ballistic missile programme, a cause of acute concern in Jerusalem.
Iranian ballistic missiles caused significant damage to the Israeli home front in the Twelve Day War, and Israel believes that Iran has at least 2000 of them in its current stock and is rapidly developing the capabilities to manufacture many more.
For all the Israeli concern about an unsatisfactory deal, the consensus among local analysts and officials remains that ultimately the US will attack Iran. The Iranians have not thus far signalled any willingness to compromise even on the enrichment issue, much less the other American priorities (missiles, regional proxies, and the protest crackdown).
Trump, for his part, reminisced about the Iranian miscalculation that led to Operation Midnight Hammer last June in the same interview where he spoke of the prospects for an agreement. “Last time they didn’t believe I would do it,” he said of the US airstrike on three nuclear facilities. “They overplayed their hand.”
If the scenario reported by the New York Times about Gaza were to happen, Israel would face pressure to undertake its own commitments in Phase Two, including a significant territorial withdrawal from the position it holds along the Yellow Line today to a narrow buffer zone around the old Gaza-Israel border from before the war.
The Israeli understanding of the disarmament clause of the Comprehensive Plan includes not just offensive weapons, but also small arms and the massive tunnel infrastructure in Gaza as well.
It is unclear whether Hamas accepts even the more lenient American proposal for disarmament. Absent any kind of disarmament, it is unlikely Israel will carry out any further territorial withdrawals in Gaza.
There is, in such a scenario, even the possibility that Israeli will launch a new military offensive into central Gaza to carry out a forceful disarmament of Hamas, this time unhindered by consideration for the fate of hostages.

Looking ahead: At their meeting, Netanyahu is expected to formally invite Trump to Israel for this year’s Independence Day Festivities, which are to be held on April 21-22. Trump is already due to receive the prestigious Israel Prize, normally awarded only to Israeli citizens, in a ceremony that traditionally closes out the day’s official festivities. Netanyahu may reportedly also ask Trump to light a torch on Mount Herzl in the ceremony that usually opens the official festivities.

The political calendar may also be a consideration for this. With no compromise in the offing on the ultra-orthodox conscription bill, it is increasingly likely that parliament will be dissolved and early elections called. Elections are currently scheduled for October, when discussion will likely be dominated by the third anniversary of the October 7 invasion and massacre. But an early election would put Independence Day, and Trump’s festive visit as the Prime Minister’s guest, right at the peak of campaign season.

February 9, 2026

Netanyahu to make surprise trip to Washington this week

What’s happening: Prime Minister Netanyahu will set out tomorrow for Washington to meet President Trump for discussions on the Iran negotiations and the possibility of US military action in Iran.

The announcement of a meeting between the two leaders this week came as a surprise, as Netanyahu was initially not expected in Washington until mid-February, when Trump will launch his Board of Peace. The earlier date is likely the reason that Israel’s security cabinet meeting was moved up from this Sunday to last Thursday.
Multiple reports in Israeli media noted that the Prime Minister would be accompanied by Brig. Gen. Omer Tischler, who is slated to be the next commander of the Israeli Air Force. This was interpreted by all observers as a sign of tight coordination in planning for a military operation against Iran, should the President ultimately decide that this is the course of action he prefers.
A round of talks held last Friday in Muscat, Oman, did not yield any agreement except to continue talks. Despite hints in the week before the Muscat talks that Iran was willing to make significant concessions on uranium enrichment as a means to bid off pressure on other issues seen as more crucial to regime survival, at the talks themselves, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi refused to accept any end to enrichment and refused as well to agree to the offshoring of Iran’s existing stock of enriched uranium.
The Muscat talks were the first meeting of any kind between US and Iranian officials since the Twelve Day War last June. And, in fact, they were not a direct meeting at all, with US and Iranian negotiators passing messages to each other via Omani diplomats.
While tensions escalate, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei continues to avoid making any public appearances that might make him a target for attack. An Iranian Air Force event held every year on February 8 and attended by the Supreme Leader every year for the last 37 years was held yesterday without him out of fears that it would be too tempting a target for Iran’s enemies.

Context: Four issues are at stake in the US-Iran standoff, though in many cases the pursuit of each is at cross purposes with that of the others. Those four issues are the Iranian nuclear programme, the ballistic missile programme, Iran’s regional proxies, and the regime’s brutal crackdown on protesters in December and January.

Iranian statements since the Muscat meeting have indicated that only the nuclear issue was discussed, and no US statements have directly contradicted that. Tump, for his part, called the talks “very good” and told reporters that Iran “wants to make a deal very badly.”
Reports in both US and Israeli media indicate a distinct lack of enthusiasm from the White House regarding a US strike against Iran, especially as it remains unclear if such an attack could really lead to the regime collapsing. The US is quite keen, however, to leverage the threat of a strike to yield concessions from the Iranians on other pressing issues.
The anti-regime protests and the regime’s brutal crackdown are what invested the recent US moves with a certain urgency. This urgency is decidedly attenuated in Israel, where Iran’s nuclear programme is still seen as crippled since the Twelve Day War, and its ballistic missile programme similarly understood to be set back.
Anonymous leaks in Israeli media suggest a general scepticism in Jerusalem regarding both Witkoff and Kushner, and a decided preference for Secretaries Rubio and Hegseth — both widely seen as Iran hawks and both sidelined for now as the US seeks the appearance of giving negotiations a chance.

Looking ahead: The deadliest night of the Iran uprising was January 8-9. This week will see the end of the traditional month-long mourning period for the dead, estimated in the tens of thousands.

Analysts expect that the end of the mourning period could herald a renewed period of protests in the country, with reports that merchants from the Grand Bazaar are organising a general strike to begin later this week.
More violence in Iran coming at a time when both the US and Iran are focusing negotiations on Iranian geostrategic issues rather than internal ones could potentially refocus the confrontation on the issue that brought Trump to threaten force to begin with — and to promise that “help is on its way.”

Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Hezbollah and Lebanon