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Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Key background
  • Hamas is an Islamist Palestinian nationalist movement which currently governs the Gaza Strip. It is proscribed by the UK and in the majority of western countries.
  • Its primary state backers are Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. It is also active in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon.
  • Since seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has continuously launched attacks against Israel and weaponised civilian infrastructure by embedding itself into schools, mosques, and hospitals.
  • Hamas’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel killed 1200, and over 250 hostages were subsequently taken to the Gaza Strip.

Updated January 8, 2024

Iranian-backed guided missile equipment found in Gaza

Gaza: Israel announced its soldiers had uncovered equipment used by Hamas to develop precision-guided missiles under Iranian tutelage.

  • The guided-missile programme was discovered during a raid of a Hamas site near Gaza City’s Daraj and Tuffah neighbourhoods, which led to an underground weapons manufacturing plant.
  • The IDF said it discovered “components proving terrorists of the Hamas terror organisation studied under Iranian guidance how to operate and build precision components and strategic weapons.”
  • Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said the IDF has dismantled Hamas military units in northern Gaza and was now focused on the southern part of Gaza.
  • “We will continue to deepen the accomplishment, to bolster the obstacle and the defensive elements along the border,” Hagari said. “At the moment, we are focusing on dismantling Hamas in the central Gaza Strip and in the southern Gaza Strip. We will do so in other ways, on a fundamental level, based on the lessons we’ve gleaned from the fighting so far.”
  • Hagari added that the refugee camps in central Gaza are crowded and full of terrorists, and that an underground city of tunnels runs beneath Khan Yunis.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu said to ministers that “the war must not be stopped until we complete all of its goals – the elimination of Hamas, the return of all our hostages, and a promise that Gaza will no longer pose a threat to Israel… I say this to both our enemies and our friends. This is our responsibility and this is the commitment from all of us.”
  • The IDF and Shin Bet successfully assassinated the commander of Hamas’s Nuseirat battalion, Ismail Siraj, and his deputy, Ahmed Wahaba, in an airstrike in Gaza on Saturday evening.
  • Also on Saturday, the IDF announced the death of 31-year-old Lt. Col. Roie Yosef Mordechai of Tel Aviv.
  • An airstrike yesterday in Rafah killed Hamza Wael Dahdouh, the son of Al Jazeera’s Gaza correspondent Wael Al-Dahdouh, and Mustafa Thuria, a video stringer for AFP who was also working for the Qatar-based TV outlet. The IDF Spokesperson’s Unit said that a military aircraft “identified and struck a terrorist who operated an aircraft in a way that put IDF forces at risk.”

The north: Hezbollah said it fired more than 60 rockets at the Mount Meron base as an initial response to the killing of Hamas official Saleh al-Aruri in Beirut last week. The IDF confirmed that the attack caused significant damage to a sensitive strategic air traffic control base.

  • IAF jets attacked Hezbollah targets, including an armaments warehouse, rocket firing installations, infrastructure to direct terror operations and technology sites. It also hit several targets in villages close to the Israel-Lebanon border.
  • The IDF said two of the compounds targeted were “significant assets” of Hezbollah, one of which had housed a surface-to-air missile squad.
  • Five Hezbollah fighters were killed, bringing the total number to over 150 since October 7th.
  • Minister Benny Gantz said, “The situation in which residents of the northern border can’t return to their homes needs an urgent solution. The world needs to remember that it was the Hezbollah terrorist organisation that started this escalation. Israel wants a political solution. If that doesn’t happen, the State of Israel and the IDF will remove the threat. All of the war cabinet ministers share that position. The only consideration is Israel’s security. That is the duty of every country towards its citizens.”

East Jerusalem & West Bank: Several border policemen were seriously wounded and one killed during an IDF operation in the Jenin refugee camp overnight on Saturday. The Palestinians reported six dead.

  • IAF aircraft eliminated a terror cell that had thrown IEDs. Combat helicopters provided cover from the air to allow for the wounded to be evacuated.
  • An East Jerusalem man was also shot dead in a terror shooting north of Ramallah.
  • A Palestinian child was mistakenly killed by security forces and a Border Police officer was lightly injured during a car-ramming attack at a checkpoint in East Jerusalem.

Context: Hamas’s possession of precision guided technology would represent a dangerous upgrade to the terror group’s weapons capabilities.

  • Hagari explained why the below-ground challenge, which suffers from a lack of intelligence at its core, requires slow, complex fighting. At the same time, Khan Yunis has been bearing the brunt of the IDF’s pressure as it tries to get to Yahya Sinwar.
  • After completing the task of destroying the command and control capabilities of Hamas’s battalions in the area in northern Gaza, the IDF has de-facto transitioned to the third phase of the war. It primarily features the use of intelligence-guided pinpoint raids, while reserving the option of operating freely if need be.
  • According to the IDF, all 12 Hamas battalions in northern Gaza, which represent half of its manpower in all of Gaza, have been destroyed. Remaining are four battalions in central Gaza, four in Khan Yunis and four in Rafah, although a military operation there seems unlikely due to Egyptian concerns.
  • During a situational assessment held at IDF Central Command, Chief of Staff Halevi said that 2024 will be a challenging year and that the army will be “fighting in Gaza all year round.”
  • Israel assesses that Hezbollah used a Kornet Russian anti-tank missile in its attack against the base on Mount Meron. An advanced Kornet missile has a range of up to 10 kilometres.
  • Violence in the West Bank has continued since the beginning of Operation Guardian of the Walls. In that period, troops have arrested more than 2,550 wanted Palestinians across the West Bank, including more than 1,300 affiliated with Hamas. Palestinian Authority (PA) health ministry data states that approximately 300 West Bank Palestinians have been killed – including more than 100 members of the various PA security organisations, most of them armed men involved in clashes with the IDF.

Looking ahead: US Secretary of State Blinken is due to visit this week. Blinken has also stressed the importance of defusing the situation in the north.

  • “We are looking at ways diplomatically to try to defuse that challenge, that tension,” Blinken said, “so that people can return to their homes, that they can live in peace and security, and this is something that we’re very actively working on.  It’s going to be part of the discussions we have over the coming days not just in Israel but some of the other countries concerned.”
  • Israeli officials are increasingly pessimistic regarding achieving a diplomatic solution in the north. Israel believes Amos Hochstein’s attempt at forging a political arrangement will likely fail, and that a war with Hezbollah may become inevitable. Both Chief of Staff Halevi and Minister Benny Gantz emphasised the importance of residents being able to return to their homes and stressed that if this couldn’t be achieved via pressure, Israel would act to remove the threat.

January 5, 2024

Gallant presents plan for ‘the day after’

What happened: Defence Minister Yoav Gallant yesterday presented a plan to reporters about the ‘day after’ in Gaza.

  • “Hamas will not rule Gaza, and Israel will not exercise civil control over Gaza,” Gallant said. “It’s Palestinians who live in the Gaza Strip, which is why Palestinian players will be responsible for it, on the condition that they are not hostile toward Israel and will not operate against it.”
  • “There will be no civil presence by Israel in the Gaza Strip after the war’s goals are achieved. Israel will not be responsible for civil life in the Gaza Strip.”
  • Gallant presented a four-part mechanism for the situation in Gaza.
    • Israel will supervise the entry of goods into the Gaza Strip.
    • A multi-national force, led by the US, Western European countries and moderate Arab states which will be responsible for rebuilding Gaza.
    • A civil Palestinian apparatus, which already exists in Gaza, comprised of clans, local bureaucrats, government officials
    • Egypt, together with Israel and the US, are working on creating a way to secure the border between Egypt and Gaza.
  • Yesterday evening in the security cabinet meeting, ministers were shown a plan whereby the residents of the northern Gaza Strip will return in a few months to facilities that will be established with donations by Western countries.
  • Security officials believe that the right thing is to allow the residents of the northern Gaza Strip to return only after the hostages are returned to Israel.
  • Right wing ministers criticised Gallant’s plan: “Gallant’s ‘day after’ plan is a re-run of the ‘day before’ October 7,” Finance Minister Smotrich said, adding, “the solution for Gaza requires out-of-the-box thinking and a changed conception [which includes] encouraging voluntary emigration [of Gazans] and full [Israeli] security control including renewed settlement.”
  • Minister Ben Gvir showed the security cabinet his own plan for the ‘day after,’ which consisted of building Israeli settlements and military positions throughout Gaza.
  • Also yesterday, Chief of Staff Halevi announced the composition of the team that will investigate the circumstances leading to October 7th and the war.
  • Four right-wing ministers lambasted Halevi because the team leader is to be former defence minister and chief of staff Shaul Mofaz, who endorsed disengagement from Gaza in 2005.
  • Gallant and former defence minister Gantz defended the Chief of Staff. The prime minister told the chief of staff that sometimes the ministers had to be listened to and then ended the discussion.
  • The number of hostages in Gaza was revised and raised to 136 last night. Three civilians who had been declared missing are now said to be hostages.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu met with the Biden Administration envoy Amos Hochstein and told him that Israel has an obligation to bring about a fundamental change on its border with Lebanon.

Context: Yesterday’s cabinet meeting is the first time a discussion on the ‘day after’ in Gaza took place since the war began.

  • Netanyahu has insisted that the PA in its current form cannot be tasked with taking over Gaza after the war.
  • According to reports, Israel and Egypt, partnering with the United States, will cooperate in using technological and physical measures above and below ground to effectively isolate the Gaza Strip’s border with Egypt.
  • The team appointed by the chief of staff will be led by Mofaz and major generals in reserves Yoav Har-Even, Aharon Farkash and Sami Turgeman. Their investigation will be in parallel to an inquiry by the IDF General Staff, which is currently underway and led by Maj. Gen. Moti Baruch, into operational events in the Gaza theatre.
  • The IDF has effectively begun to transition to phase 3 of the Gaza operation, which includes a gradual reduction of forces and a focus on the arenas of activity.
  • Israel will likely switch to a new mode of fighting that will include aerial strikes and raids on land, the destruction of underground tunnels and special operations.
  • The army needs to discharge reserve forces to reduce the damage to the economy, and wants to prepare units for the possibility of a serious escalation in Lebanon down the road.
  • In the southern part of Gaza, no changes are expected in the nature of combat where high-intensity combat is ongoing. It is thought this will continue at least until the end of January.
  • An Israeli official denied that Israel was engaged in negotiations with any country about the possibility of taking in Gazan residents. “That’s fake [news]…let’s say that Smotrich would like to carry that out. What can he do? The report as if the former British prime minister, Tony Blair, has been engaged on the issue is fake [news]. That never happened.”

Looking ahead: US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is scheduled to visit Israel on Monday, his fifth visit since the war began. He will also visit other Middle Eastern countries.  Once in Israel, Blinken will meet with senior officials to discuss Israel’s vision for the day after the war.

  • The US administration continues to emphasise that Israel must transfer tax revenues to the PA, otherwise the authority will collapse. The Netanyahu coalition includes members who are adamantly opposed to this.
  • Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah is expected to deliver a second speech within three days later today.

January 4, 2024

Nasrallah’s threats heighten tensions in the North

Northern front: Hezbollah Secretary General Nasrallah gave a speech yesterday on the 4th anniversary of the US assassination of Qassem Soleimani.

  • “In one fell swoop an active ‘resistance’ front arose against Israel, but all the organisations on the ‘front’ are working by themselves, at their own paces, with their own priorities, without receiving operational instructions from Iran. Iran’s role is simply to provide weapons, ammunition, military equipment, training and operational instructors, not to give operational orders.”
  • Nasrallah also touched on the domestic situation in Israel. “You hear voices against the government inside Israel. You see political camps speaking out even against the Israeli air force. This is the first time a real war has been going on inside Israel. Even outside Israel, there is an ‘anti’ atmosphere. Only the United States and Great Britain are cooperating, while 153 countries around the world come out against Israel and call on it to stop murdering innocent Palestinians in the Gaza Strip…Everything Israel has touched since October 7 is doomed to failure. They have no security, and if there is no security, Israel will lose its right to exist. I call on the Zionists—pack your bags and go somewhere else that will agree to take you. After all, every Israeli has a passport from another country.”
  • “We will not take this contemptible assassination lying down. I promise that Hezbollah’s response will come. Naturally, I’m not going to reveal what we are planning, but Israel will regret this assassination.”
  • At least 95 people have been killed by two bomb explosions near Soleimani’s tomb yesterday. Iran blamed Israel but it is considered most likely the work of Sunni jihadists.
  • The IDF attacked a Hezbollah command post last night, killing four Hezbollah operatives, including the commander of the Naqoura District, Hussein Yazbak. Yesterday was one of the deadliest days for Hezbollah, with 9 of their operatives killed. A total 149 Hezbollah fighters have been killed since the start of hostilities in October.
  • IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Halevi visited the northern border and held a situation assessment meeting “We are very strongly prepared here in the north,” said Halevi. “We are very well prepared in all the theaters; at the moment we are focusing on the war against Hamas.” He added that despite the dififcult circumstances, the war has produced an opportunity to change the situation very significantly in the south and in the north and as a whole in the regional posture.”
  • IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said yesterday that Israel has thwarted Hezbollah’s operations along the border and has dealt with other challenges in the Red Sea and . He added that the IDF was prepared on all fronts.
  • US President Joe Biden spoke to Prime Minister Netanyahu and told him that the United States would continue to maintain a “significant presence” in the region. The conversation took place following reports that the Americans were planning to redeploy one of the two aircraft carriers, the USS Gerald R. Ford and the battleships that accompany it, from the Red Sea.

Gaza Strip: The IDF continues to operate across the Gaza Strip including deep inside the southern city of Khan Yunis.

  • The IDF has also made further advances in the central areas of the Strip including in Nuseirat, al-Ma’azi and Bureij.
  • As a result of the operations, more Gazan civilians are being encouraged to move south.
  • According to Palestinian sources, the current population in Rafah, which was 250,000 before the war, now exceeds 1.2 million people.
  • IDF Spokesperson Hagari said that, “in Khan Yunis, our forces continue to operate underground. This operation takes time, both for our forces’ safety and because we use classified and new methods. We do not want to reveal our combat methods to the enemy.”
  • “In the central camps, we continue to strike. There is a significant operation there and terrorists are killed daily. This is alongside our forces locating and identifying production sites. These sites, where Hamas produces and assembles rockets, some are located underground with significant manufacturing machinery, including some from other countries, including Iran.”
  • IDF troops destroyed a 250 metre long tunnel that was discovered beneath the Shifa Hospital compound in Gaza City. According to the IDF the tunnel led to a number of major Hamas command posts.
  • The hospital itself was not damaged and it has continued to operate normally.
  • Despite intensive IDF operations, Hamas are still launching rockets into southern Israel. This morning sirens once again sounded in Ashkelon, and two rockets intercepted.
  • The IDF has informed the family of Sahar Baruch, who was kidnapped from Kibbutz Beeri, that he was killed during an IDF special forces operation in the northern Gaza Strip to free him on December 8. The IDF is unable to say definitively whether Sahar was murdered by Hamas or whether he was killed by Israeli gunfire. In addition, two IDF special forces soldiers sustained serious injuries in the operation.
  • A senior Israeli official has briefed Israeli media that the comments of right wing politicians encouraging Gazans to leave Gaza does not represent Israeli government policy.      

Context: As planned, Nasrallah dedicated his speech to head of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Qassem Soleimani.

  • Soleimani’s strategy was to surround Israel with a ‘ring of fire’ – Iranian proxies in Iran, , Yemen and Lebanon possessing significant missile capability that could attack and deter Israel.
  • The speech came a day after a drone fired two missiles that struck a third floor apartment in the Dahiya neighbourhood of Beirut killing the number two in Hamas’s external leadership Salah al-Arouri. Nasrallah had previously promised that any Israeli action on Lebanese soil that killed a senior Lebanese, Palestinian, Iranian or Syrian official would lead to a powerful reaction.”
  • Despite the rhetoric, analysts believe Nasrallah’s speech signals Hezbollah is unlikely to carry out a significant response to Arouri’s killing (which would then require a strong Israeli response which could lead to a serious risk of war). It also suggests that Hezbollah is deterred and prepared to tolerate a blow even in the heart of the Dahiya district of Beirut.
  • The group will likely seek to carry out a ‘proportionate’ response which may involve trying to kill a senior Israeli official along the northern border or abroad.
  • There is ongoing concern in Israel over the plight of the estimated 133 hostages still held inside Gaza. Following the assassination of Arouri, the negotiations are currently halted.
  • As part of the coalition agreement, a year after the government was formed Foreign Minister Cohen, and Energy Minister Katz switched roles.  On his first day as the new foreign minister (a role he has held in the past) Katz spoke to Foreign Secretary Cameron. Katz expressed, “deep appreciation for Britain’s unwavering support for Israel after the Hamas October 7th terrorist attack.”  He also highlighted the importance of opposing South Africa’s motion against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) at The Hague.
  • The US announced that it has carried out its own investigation, which supported the IDF finding regarding Hamas infrastructure underneath the Shifa Hospital in Gaza City.

Looking ahead: US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein will visit Israel today and meet with senior officials to try and prevent escalation in the north. Hochstein, who previously brokered the Israeli Lebanon maritime border, is reportedly trying to mediate an agreement on the ground border between the two countries.

  • Israel maintains that the pre-October 7th status quo on the northern border cannot be returned to, and that that Hezbollah, and its elite Radwan force in particular, must be moved north of the Litani river, as called for by UN Resolution 1701.
  • The US and France have made efforts to induce the Lebanese government to act to remove Hezbollah fighters from the border area, but Israel has also affirmed that if diplomatic initiatives fail it will be forced to take military action to secure the north. Secretary of State Blinken will visit Beirut on Tuesday, after pushing off the visit that had been planned for tomorrow following the assassination of al-Arouri.
  • Following a delay, the security cabinet is expected to convene this evening and discuss the ‘day after’. Ministers are expected to be shown the plan that was drafted by the National Security Council and Minister Ron Dermer.
  • Next week the ICJ will hold two open hearings related to the South African allegations that Israel’s operations in the Gaza Strip constitute genocide. Unlike in the past, Israel intends to challenge these allegations in the court. From Israel’s perspective all of its military operations are carried out in compliance with the international laws of war.

January 3, 2024

Surgical strike in Beirut targets Hamas number two

Strike in Beirut: Early yesterday evening a drone fired two missiles that struck a third floor apartment in the Dahiya neighbourhood of Beirut.

  • Inside the apartment was a meeting of Palestinian leaders, among them Salah al-Arouri, the number two in Hamas’s external leadership, and Ismail Haniyah’s deputy.
  • According to Lebanese media, 6 other people were killed in the strike. Three were identified as Samir Pandi, the commander of Al-Qassam Brigades in Lebanon, Azzam al-Aqra and Khalil al-Hayya, two more senior Hamas officials.
  • Israel has not taken formal responsibility, neither confirming or denying the strike, but Prime Minister Netanyahu recently warned and gave his consent to pursue all the Hamas leaders and those responsible for the October 7 massacre.
  • The responsible party combined precision munitions with accurate and timely intelligence to ensure that only Hamas leaders were targeted while minimising collateral damage.”

Context: Arouri is the most senior figure killed so far in response to the October 7 attack.

  • Originally from a village in the Ramallah area, he was a founding member of Hamas’s military wing.” He was released from Israeli prison in 2010 and exiled to , several months before the Shalit prisoner deal, but in hindsight was considered as part of the process that lead to the deal.
  • After Hamas fell out with Assad’s indiscriminate killing during the Syrian civil war, he relocated to Turkey and then to Beirut.
  • He remotely oversaw recruitment, funding and arming of terror cells in the West Bank and was considered to have been behind many attacks in recent years.
  • In that capacity he took responsibility for the kidnapping and murder of three teenagers in 2014 that precipitated the Operation Protective Edge that summer.
  • Prior to October 7 he was at the top of Israel’s wanted list due to his dual role as the Hamas interface with Iran and Hezbollah and his overall responsibility for West Bank terror attacks.
  • Whilst in Lebanon he was the main Hamas figure that coordinated with Hezbollah, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Iran. He was the leading figure ensuring Hamas was part of Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ and was reportedly disappointed that Hezbollah and Iran have not (until now), joined the fighting in more strident manner.
  • He also led the phenomena of the last couple of years of Palestinians firing rockets from southern Lebanon into Israel (alongside Hezbollah).
  • He is the most senior Hamas figure to be assassinated since Ahmed Jabari was killed in 2012.
  • Within Hamas he was a considered a political rival to both Sinwar and Haniyah. He saw himself as future leader, based on his close ties with Iran and operational responsibility for terror attacks emanating from the West Bank.
  • The attack took place in Dahiya neighbourhood, long considered the Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut. This fact places Hezbollah in a dilemma: on one hand this is an attack literally in their backyard, yet on the other, the precision strike meant no Lebanese were harmed. There are voices inside Lebanon appealing to Hezbollah leader Nasrallah not to drag Lebanon into war as a result.
  • Last summer Nasrallah said, “any assassination on Lebanese soil of a senior Lebanese, Palestinian, Iranian or Syrian official will certainly have a powerful reaction. We won’t be able to be silent in the face of an act of that kind and we won’t allow Lebanon to become a front for assassinations.” While October 7 changed Israel’s calculations, the current assessment suggests Hezbollah will keep its response under the threshold of all-out war.
  • Israel has not taken formal responsibility for the strike. In his regular evening briefing IDF Spokesperson Hagari did not relate to Arouri’s assassination. However, other officials have spoken out. Likud MK Danny Danon wrote on X, “I congratulate the IDF, the Shin Bet, the Mossad and the security forces for killing senior Hamas official Salah al-Arouri in Beirut. Anyone who was involved in the 7.10 massacre should know that we will reach out to them and close an account with them.”
  • It is still unclear to what extent Arouri was involved in the direct planning of October 7. Some analysts saw him as a key figure in all of Hamas military plans, while others suggest he was only made aware of the attacks the morning they started, at which point he then updated Nasrallah.

Looking ahead: Today marks the 4th anniversary of the US assassination of IRGC Commander Qassam Soleimani and Nasrallah was due to give a memorial speech tonight. Analysts are waiting to see if he will still speak, whether he will stick to his original script, and how he will respond to Arouri’s death.

  • Israel is on a heightened level of alert, moving more Iron Dome missile defence systems to the north and waiting to see how Hamas and Hezbollah will respond.
  • The strike appears to have put any hostage negotiations on hold for now.
  • The Israeli security cabinet had been expected to begin to debate plans for ‘day after the fighting’ this discussion was also postponed to a later date.

January 2, 2024

High Court dramatically overrules key judicial reform

The High Court of Justice: On Monday evening the court announced its ruling on petitions challenging the amendment to Basic Law: The Judiciary that was passed into law in July. The court ruled in an 8:7 majority vote to strike down the amendment in its entirety.

  • Twelve of the fifteen justices ruled that the Supreme Court possesses the authority to exercise judicial review of Israel’s basic laws, and to intervene in exceptional and extreme cases in which the Knesset has exceeded its authority as the branch of government empowered to legislate the provisions of the constitution through the passage of basic laws.
  • Former Supreme Court President Esther Hayut who is about to retire wrote: “In my view, it is not possible to square the amendment to the Basic Law on the Judiciary and the principle of the separation of powers and the principle of the rule of law, which are two of the most important characteristics of our democratic system. Such a violation at the very heart of our founding narrative cannot stand.”
  • Justice Isaac Amit wrote that “the State of Israel is in need of additional engines to strengthen democratic government. But the amendment to the basic law that eliminated reasonableness grounds with respect to anything related to decisions of the cabinet and its ministers moves in the opposite direction and further strengthens the power of the executive branch.”
  • Justices Noam Sohlberg and David Mintz dissented from the majority on the issue of the court’s jurisdiction to exercise judicial review of basic laws and of the court’s jurisdiction to rule on the issue. They argued that there is no source of authority under Israeli law for such judicial review. They added that even if such authority exists, the court should not have overturned the reasonableness amendment to the basic law because the case does not meet the criteria that the majority laid down for disqualification of a basic law.
  • The ruling was criticised by the government. Justice Minister Yariv Levin said “The judges’ decision to publish the decision during a war is the opposite of the spirit of unity needed at this time for the success of our fighters on the front.” He described the ruling as creating a “situation in which it is even impossible for the Knesset and the government to legislate basic laws or to make decisions without the judges’ approval.” The Likud party said that the Supreme Court’s decision “opposes the will of the people for unity, especially during wartime.”
  • Leader of  the Opposition Lapid praised the ruling. “The Supreme Court fulfilled its duty today in safeguarding Israeli citizens, and we give it full backing.” Minister Gantz called for broad agreement. “After the war, we will have to formalise the relationship between the powers and legislate a Basic Law: Legislation that will anchor the standing of basic laws. We will do that with broad agreement, with open discussion, thoroughly and with stateliness while maintaining respect between all citizens of Israel.”

Context: The Knesset’s decision to cancel the ‘reasonability standard’ in July was the first of the government’s planned judicial reforms to actually be passed into law.

  • The amendment to Basic Law: The Judiciary sought to cancel the court’s ability to use reasonability as grounds for striking down government decisions and appointments.
  • The government argued that the court possessed no legal or constitutional basis to review Basic Laws, seeing as they have quasi-constitutional status. During the hearing, the Likud  party stated that “The Knesset receives its authority from the people. The government receives its authority from the Knesset. The court receives its authority from the Basic Laws enacted by the Knesset.”
  • Opponents argued that Israel’s democratic culture is unique – the country possesses no second chamber, nor a written constitution, and the list system (which concentrates power over MKs to party leaders, as opposed to their being parliamentarians answerable to their constituency) ensures that the executive is generally able to exercise de facto control over a majority of the Knesset.
  • In this context, the existing system provides a vital separation of powers and an independent judiciary – with partial capacity for overruling the legislature and executive – provides a crucial brake on executive power and functions as an essential guarantor of liberal democratic norms and minority rights.
  • There is currently no distinction between the way the Knesset passes a Basic Law and a regular law (both require only a basic majority), leaving the special status of Basic Laws open to different interpretations and legal ambiguity.
  • Following the court’s announcement, the IDF Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Hagari was asked how Israel’s internal divisions could have influenced Hamas’s decision to launch its attack on October 7. Hagari said, “things will be clarified in the in-depth inquiry,” he added. “presumably the feature of a rift, the military’s readiness, maybe in its perception that is one of the features that is linked to this.”
  • He added that contrary to Hamas’s assumptions, the IDF was now fighting with full unity in its ranks, which he said reflected the strength of Israeli society.

Gaza Strip: The IDF continues its operations against Hamas military targets in the south, centre and north of the Gaza Strip.

  • On Monday the IDF announced another reservist killed in action, by an explosive device in the northern Gaza Strip. Another 11 soldiers were wounded in the incident, two of whom are hospitalised in serious condition.
  • The IDF also revealed that 29 of the 170 soldiers killed in the ground operation, were killed either in accidents or as a result of friendly fire. Eighteen were killed by friendly fire as a result of misidentification; two were killed by friendly fire in incidents in which troops fired in excess of restrictions; and nine were killed in other accidents.
  • On Sunday the IDF confirmed that another Hamas Nukhba commander was killed in an airstrike.  Adel Mesmah was the commander of the forces that targeted Kibbutz Kissufim on October 7. He also sent terrorists into other kibbutzim, including Beeri and Nirim. He then went on to command Hamas forces inside the Gaza Strip until his death.
  • Also in northern Gaza, the IDF located and destroyed the tunnels of Hamas’ general headquarters. According to the IDF Spokesperson, “in the tunnels was an electricity network, ventilation and sewage infrastructure, prayer rooms and resting rooms.” The tunnel was connected to an apartment used by Hamas leader Sinwar. The IDF added they, “discovered that a strategic tunnel shaft was located on the basement floor… apparently used by the senior officials of Hamas’ Military and Political Wing. The apartment is part of a long and branching tunnel network…The tunnel was built so that it would be possible to stay inside it and conduct combat from it for long periods of time.” Footage of the tunnel can be seen here.
  • Despite the continued fighting, the IDF has begun to reduce the number of troops deployed inside the Strip. Two reservist brigades have been discharged, and three standing army brigades have been sent back into training.
  • In parallel, Hamas continue to fire rockets into Israel. At midnight, as 2024 began they fired at least 20 rockets towards central Israel, at least 10 were intercepted.
  • The head of Southern Command Maj. Gen. Yaron Finkelman met with the troops in central Gaza, and said, “The combat will continue in a range of methods, a range of intensities and shifting forms.”

Northern border: Hezbollah continues its attacks on military and civilian targets close the northern border.

  • In response the IDF have continued to target the cells that launch the attacks as well as Hezbollah infrastructure.
  • In one incident five soldiers sustained light injuries after coming under fire from Lebanon.
  • Hezbollah announced that another fighter was killed last night, taking their total to 138.
  • In addition, five rockets were fired into Israeli yesterday from , they all landed in open areas on the Golan.
  • Syrian sources accused the IDF of attacking targets in in retaliation. According to Syrian media, the IDF attacked a number of targets in the suburbs of Damascus early this morning.
  • Israel has not officially commented, but this is thought to be the sixth attack inside , ascribed to Israel in the past week.

Looking ahead: Israeli media report that the IDF has drafted a plan to empower local clans in Gaza to  distribute . The plan, which will be presented today to the security cabinet, would divide Gaza into regions and sub-regions, each one of which is to be governed by a clan. In addition to distributing entering from Egypt and from Israel, the clans will be tasked with overseeing civilian affairs in Gaza for an interim period.

  • Prime Minister Netanyahu told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee that if the Palestinian Authority wants to participate in governing the Gaza Strip on the day after, it must undergo fundamental change and to prove it has done so in the way it governs in the West Bank.
  • Minister of Defence Gallant has suggested the displaced communities, within a range of four to seven km north of the Gaza strip, will soon be able to return home.
  • In an unprecedented move, Israel intends to send a representative to the International Court of Justice at The Hague and to demand that the court dismiss the motion that was filed by South Africa asking the court to issue an interim injunction instructing Israel to desist from all military action in the Gaza Strip.
  • National Security Council Director Tzahi Hanegbi told Yediot Ahronot, “The State of Israel has been a signatory of the Genocide Convention for the past six decades, and we certainly won’t boycott the hearing. We will be there and will repel the absurd suit, which constitutes a blood libel. The Jewish people has experienced on its own flesh more than any other nation what genocide is. Six million of our people were slaughtered with boundless brutality. Similar brutality was used against the citizens of Israel in the October 7 massacre, but this time we have the ability to defend ourselves against those who rise up to annihilate us. The absurd suit against  the victim’s right to self-defence is a disgrace, and our expectation from all civilized countries is to show solidarity with that assertion.

December 29, 2023

UK and allies condemn Iran

UK and allies condemn Iran

Iranian threat: The UK along with France, Germany, and the US condemned Iran for its latest nuclear steps that were reported earlier this week by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

  • The IAEA report stated Iran had reversed a months-long slowdown in the production rate of highly enriched uranium up to 60 percent purity at its Natanz and Fordow nuclear plants.
  • In the joint statement, the countries described the IAEA findings as representing “a backwards step by Iran and will result in Iran tripling its monthly production rate of uranium enriched up to 60 percent” and that they “add to the unabated escalation of Iran’s nuclear programme.”
  • Iranian decisions demonstrate the country’s “lack of good will towards de-escalation and represent reckless behaviour in a tense regional context.”
  • The countries concluded that they “remain committed to a diplomatic solution and reaffirm our determination that Iran must never develop a nuclear weapon.”
  • The IAEA report raises fears that the Islamic Republic is slowly advancing towards achieving nuclear weapons capacity. In June, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini said, “the West could not stop Iran from building nuclear weapons if Tehran wanted a pursue a nuclear arms programme.”
  • The joint statement by Western powers emphasised that “the production of high-enriched uranium by Iran has no credible civilian justification.”
  • Foreign Secretary David Cameron described Iran as a “thoroughly malign influence in the region and in the world” and that the Iranian leadership and its proxies needed to be sent an “incredibly clear message that this escalation will not be tolerated”.

Lebanon: Hezbollah launched around 50 rockets and missiles as well as two drones at Israel yesterday.

  • Repeated drone infiltration and rocket alert sirens sounded throughout the day including in Haifa, Acre, Kiryat Shmona and other towns in the Upper Galilee. One drone was intercepted near Haifa that entered from Lebanon.
  • The IDF carried out widespread strikes in southern Lebanon in response.
  • sources have claimed that Israel attacked several targets from the air in the area of Damascus and southern . Among the targets was the Damascus Airport that has claimed had been struck on numerous occasions. Israel sees the airport as a significant hub of Iranian efforts to transport advanced weapons to Hezbollah and their Syrian proxies.
  • In an unusual incident, late Wednesday evening a suspected explosive-laden drone crashed in the southern Golan Heights, with an Iran-backed Iraqi militia taken credit for launching the attack.
  • Attacks along the northern border from Lebanon since October 8 have caused the death of four civilian deaths and nine IDF soldiers. Israeli responses in Lebanon and Syria have killed 129 members of Hezbollah, 16 Palestinian terror operatives, a Lebanese soldier, and at least 19 civilians.
  • Also Wednesday, an Israeli strike in Syria killed Razi Mousavi, an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) operative, with a rank of Brig. Gen who was involved in arms smuggling operations from Iran, arms production in Syria and channeling money to Hezbollah and other Shiite militias.
  • His assassination suggests Israel has escalated its battle against Iranian proxies to also target Iranian operatives themselves.
  • Earlier this week, Defence Minister Gallant, speaking at meeting of the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee, said Israel was in a seven front war and had acted in six of them. “We are being attacked from seven different arenas: Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, [the West Bank], Iraq, Yemen, and Iran.” He added that “We have already responded and acted in six of these areas [not Iran], and I say here in the clearest way: Anyone who acts against us is a potential target, there is no immunity for anyone.”
  • The IDF remains in active manoeuvres in three areas:
    • Completing their takeover of the final two neighbourhoods (Darj and Tifah) in Gaza City.
    • Extending into the Bureij area in the centre of the Gaza Strip.
    • Targeted operations in the southern city of Khan Yunis.
  • In all these areas, whilst encountering difficult combat above ground, thousands of tunnel shafts have been exposed, many in Mosques, schools and UN facilities. These will require several more weeks or even months to completely decommission.
  • The only remaining area that the ground troops have not yet reached is the southern most area of Rafah and the Philadelphia Corridor along the Egyptian border.

Rafah and the Philadelphia Corridor: Prior to October 7, Rafah had a population of about a quarter of a million people. There are now 1.25 million people in Rafah.

  • The corridor is 13km long and runs from the sea to Kerem Shalom and bisects the city of Rafah into two; a Gazan and an Egyptian town.
  • Rafah and the corridor have long been the main smuggling route for Hamas and it is considered essential to disrupt this channel in order to prevent further rearmament in the future.
  • So far the Israeli Air Force has carried out targeted strikes, but no ground forces have operated in the area.
  •  The high population density and the close proximity and sensitivity of Egypt further complicates any prospective military action.
  • The Egyptians are wary that any IDF ground incursion could create more pressure of Gazans looking to flee into Egypt.
  • One idea, thought to have been explored with Egyptian and US officials, is to build a deep underground barrier along the Egyptian side of the border fitted with technological devices similar to those that were installed on the Israel – Gaza border.
  • Unlike the overground wall that was breached so significantly on October 7, the underground barrier has so far been fully effective. The technology included the ability to provide indication as to whether any digging is being done in the vicinity.
  • A new barrier could be built on the Egyptian side, which would help avoid direct IDF confrontations with Hamas.
  • The new proposal would see the establishment of a joint Israel – Egyptian control room to monitor any future digging attempts.
  • Israel is also keen to establish a monitoring mechanism to inspect legal above ground aid and goods entering Gaza from Egypt.
  • In parallel, Israel along with Cyprus and the UK are exploring the establishment of a sea corridor for the efficient entry of and supplies.

December 27, 2023

IDF expands fighting into central Gaza

Gaza Strip: The IDF is now operating in four central areas of Al-Boureij, Al-Maghazi, Nuseirat and Deir al-Balah.

  • All these areas include Hamas fighters with approximately 1000 Hamas operatives in Al-Boureij.
  • In addition, the IDF continues to operate in the north and south of the Gaza Strip.
  • IDF Chief of Staff Halevi gave an assessment on Tuesday that the IDF is close to concluding the: “dismantlement of Hamas’s battalions in the northern Gaza Strip. Now we are making a concerted effort in the southern Gaza Strip, Khan Yunis, the camps in the centre and so on. We are ratcheting up military pressure in various ways, with force and guile. That pressure will facilitate the attainment of the war’s objectives: dismantling Hamas and getting the hostages back.”
  • The fighting continues to exact a heavy cost. Four IDF soldiers were killed on Tuesday night, which follows several fatalities over the last few days. Overall since the ground offensive began 164 soldiers have fallen with over 870 injured.
  • The Palestinian fatalities have been far higher. According to Hamas figures, over 20,000 Gazans have been killed. The IDF estimates that this includes over 7,000 Hamas operatives. The Hamas Ministry of Health casualty number also does not distinguish between those killed by Israel and those by Hamas. Almost 2,000 Hamas fired rockets have fallen inside Gaza.
  • Despite IDF operations, Hamas are still able to launch rockets into Israel. On Tuesday a rocket struck the Synagogue in Kibbutz Saad.
  • This morning sirens sounded again in various communities in the Gaza periphery.

Iran: Iranian foreign minister threatens Israel following the assassination of a senior Revolutionary Guards officer in Damascus.

  • Razi Mousavi was an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) operative, with a rank of Brig. Gen. He was an important member of the Iranian military apparatus in and had been close to Qasem Soleimani before the latter’s assassination by the US in January 2020.
  • Mousavi was involved in arms smuggling operations from Iran, arms production in and channeling money to Hezbollah and other Shiite militias. His assassination suggests Israel has escalated its battle against Iranian proxies to also target Iranian operatives themselves.
  • Israel has been accused of killing Iranian officials in before, whether in targeted assassination operations or in attacks on weapons’ storehouses and other targets. Monday’s strike seems to have been aimed at killing Mousavi himself and sending a deterring message to Iran.
  • Separately, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Iran has returned to a rate of enriching to 60 per cent around 9 kg of uranium a month (previously 3 kg,). 60 per cent is close to weapons grade.

Lebanon: Hezbollah continues to launch rockets, mortars, drones and anti-tank missiles at both Israeli civilian and military targets.

  • On Tuesday 9 IDF troops were wounded while helping an Israeli civilian who had been previously wounded by an anti-tank missile that was fired at the St. Mary’s Greek-Orthodox Church in the northern village of Iqrit. The IDF killed the terrorist who fired the anti-tank missile.
  • Hezbollah attacks on Tuesday also included strikes on Moshav Dovev, Moshav Even Menachem and Kibbutz Adamit.
  • According to Lebanese reports, three people were killed last night in an Israeli Air Force strike on a house in Bint Jbeil, understood to be home of a Hezbollah commander.
  • Overall the Hezbollah have announced 129 fatalities of their operatives.
  • This morning 18 rockets were fired towards Rosh Hanikra with 6 intercepted. In addition, 10 mortars and rockets were fired at IDF positions on Mount Dov.

Context: Defence Minister Gallant said yesterday that Israel is under attack on seven fronts and has responded in no fewer than six. He was referring to Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, the West Bank, Yemen and Iran.

  • Iran is connected to all these fronts and although Israel has not formally claimed responsibility for the death of Mousavi, the targeted assassination of a senior IRGC has been perceived as a message to the Iranians.
  • In the Israeli government’s calculus all these fronts need to be considered.
  • Whilst the government’s priority remains dismantling Hamas inside Gaza, there are growing calls both internally and externally to address the day after fighting.  In the most recent war cabinet meeting earlier this week PM Netanyahu reportedly refused to discuss the plan to change the scope of IDF combat in the Gaza Strip.
  • The next stage of the war is supposed to reduce the number of IDF troops in the Gaza Strip.
  • Netanyahu’s top confidant Minister Dermer is in Washington to coordinate a plan for the next phase. The Biden administration favours a revitalised Palestinian Authority (PA), whilst Israel has rejected any possibility of Mahmoud Abbas’ PA being in charge of Gaza.
  • Dermer is expected to discuss Israel’s plans to transition to a low-intensity war, which is may happen towards the end of January, as well as questions pertaining to the civil administration of Gaza in the months ahead.
  • Dermer is also expected to raise Israel’s concerns about a shortfall in the supply of munitions for planes, and to ask the US to expedite arms shipments to Israel, especially so as to prepare for a possible escalation in hostilities along the northern border.
  • According to Yediot Ahronot, IDF officials say they estimate that 20 per cent of Hamas’s military troops have been killed so far. While the paper suggests others have a higher estimate, but none talk about complete decimation. Most of Hamas’s top military officials have survived and there is strong speculation that they have deliberately placed Israeli hostages in their close proximity, a move which further complicates IDF plans.
  • Although Hamas has lost most of its governmental strongholds, it hasn’t lost its control over the population. In a display of control earlier this week, Hamas policemen were seen on the streets of southern Gaza.
  • Despite IDF’s current deployment across Gaza, it is yet to operate in the area of the Philadelphi Corridor on the southern border. This area is seen as crucial for disabling Hamas smuggling tunnels, but is highly sensitive due to the proximity of Egypt.
  • The hostages issue remains prominent inside Israel. Relatives of the 129 people still in Hamas captivity continue to demonstrate and demand the government prioritises their release.
  • On Monday, Hamas rejected a proposed Egyptian plan that would involve a ceasefire in exchange for the release of more hostages, and lead to a broader agreement involving a permanent ceasefire along with an overhaul of leadership in Gaza.

Looking ahead: Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Halevi cautioned yesterday, that the war “will continue for many months more, and we will use different methods so that the achievement is maintained over time.”

  • In an effort to increase the supply of , Israel has reached agreement in principle with Cyprus and the UK to establish a maritime corridor for supplying goods and equipment to the Gaza Strip in the future.

December 21, 2023

IDF completes takeover of Hamas “Leaders’ Quarter”

  • IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari said: “From this infrastructure, they could move and spread out around the Strip. From the heart of Gaza City, they were able to go to Shifa Hospital, and from there to set out southward in ambulances and return to Shifa. [They were able to] enter the warren, head north and move around the area of Rantisi Hospital.”
  • “This completes our exposure of Hamas’ underground terror city in the north [of Gaza]. We’ll dismantle it, and target their strategic infrastructure. This operation extends to southern Gaza, reaching the subterranean hideouts of Hamas leaders in Khan Yunis,” he added.
  • “The ground operation will continue, aerial strikes persisting across the designated areas in Gaza. We’ve also engaged in Rafah. We will continue pursuing Hamas leadership throughout the Gaza Strip.”
  • Three IDF soldiers were killed in fighting in the Gaza Strip yesterday, and eight seriously wounded.
  • The dead were named as Sgt. Lavi Ghasi, 19; 1st Lt. Yaacov Elian, 20; and 1st Lt. Omri Shwartz, 21.
  • Hagari said “the IDF is intensifying the fighting” in Gaza. “We’ve transitioned to combat in Tuffah, adjacent to Shajaiya, completing our efforts in Jabalya, Beit Hanoun, Shajaiya, all facing Israeli Gaza border communities. Our aim is to shape security along the border, part of our fight against terror in these zones. We’re ensuring a changed security situation for Israeli residents when the time comes for their return”
  • Over the last 24 hours dozens of aircraft attacked about 230 Hamas targets in the Strip.
  • In Khan Yunis, the air force destroyed a rocket launcher and buildings in which terrorists were identified, as well as killing terrorists in the Shati area.
  • A rocket was fired from Gaza at Israel this morning, ending the longest lull in rocket fire since October 7th.
  • US Secretary of State Blinken spoke with UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron, French Foreign Minister Colonna and German Foreign Minister Baerbock about the “importance of urgently addressing humanitarian needs in Gaza, the imperative of minimizing civilian casualties, and the need to prevent the conflict’s further escalation.”
  • Reports have emerged that the three Israeli hostages accidentally killed by the IDF on Friday were caught on film by a camera mounted on a dog from an elite canine unit five days before their death. The footage was not monitored in real time, and only reviewed later, after the hostages had been killed.
  • There are reports of negotiations between Israel and Hamas for another pause in the fighting and a hostage release. White House National Security Council spokesperson Kirby said such discussions were “very serious.”

The north: Last night, a barrage of eight rockets was fired from Lebanon at Kiryat Shmona and the adjacent area. No injuries were reported. Four rocket launches at Israel from were detected with Hezbollah taking responsibility for the launch.

  • In response, Israeli forces returned fire and also attacked a Syrian Army position and IAF aircraft attacked a Hezbollah command centre inside Lebanese territory. Some of the Israeli strikes were as deep as 20 kilometres inside Lebanon.
  • In another incident, terrorists approached the border fence. Israeli troops fired on them and reported hits.
  • Gates to all civilian communities along the Israel-Lebanon border have been closed due to the threat of attack.

Context: The “Leaders’ Quarter” in Gaza City includes a network of intricate tunnels connecting apartments, offices, and hideouts. It is where Hamas’s governmental and military leadership including Ismail Haniyeh, Yayha Sinwar, and Mohammed Deif operated from.

  • The commander of the IDF’s 401st Brigade, Col. Benny Aharon, told Israeli media of the Leaders’ Quarter that: “Above ground is an entirely deceptive world. Entire clusters of houses that are designed  to look innocent and which supposedly belong to civilians, but which in reality serve as safe houses for terrorists or which, right beneath them, we found briefing rooms and meeting rooms where the Hamas government met. The above-ground world is connected to the underground world, and the underground world is connected to a world we call ‘the connected people.’ It is a long, large, intricate underground world they have built here over the course of decades.”
  • The underground city is fitted with blast doors and living quarters that make it possible for operatives to remain there for long periods.
  • Khan Yunis may constitute the last stage of the intensive part of the operation. The next stage of the IDF’s operation will likely focus on setting up a security zone that will act as a buffer between Gaza and the Israeli communities around it. The zone will be roughly a kilometre wide.
  • During this phase, IDF troops will redeploy inside Gaza, mainly in the north. A limited number of residents will likely begin to be allowed to return to specific neighbourhoods of Gaza City. The IDF will continue to carry out special raids and air strikes “until Hamas’s complete destruction,” as security cabinet ministers have put it.
  • Yesterday was the first day since October 7th that there were no rockets were fired from Gaza. Prior to the rocket launched this morning, the last rocket fired from Gaza was on Tuesday at 1600.
  • Talks over a potential new hostage deal involving the temporary suspension of hostilities continue, after Mossad chief Barnea met with the Qatari prime minister in Poland this week.
  • According to Israeli reports, Hamas has rejected an Israeli proposal for a week-long pause in exchange for the release of 40 hostages: women, children, and those elderly males requiring medical care.
  • At a press conference yesterday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said: “Israel has been very clear, including as recently as today, that it would welcome returning to a pause and the further release of hostages. The problem was, and has been, and remains Hamas.”
  • The humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip remains acute. The first stage of a water pipeline from Egypt to Gaza has been completed. The pipeline aims to provide clean water to 150,000 Gazans.
  • Israeli Foreign Minister Cohen was in Cyprus yesterday, where he toured the port of Larnaca and met with Cypriot Foreign Minister Kombos. Israel and Cyprus have been working on a Cyprus to Gaza maritime corridor for the transport of aid. The plan, which is thought to be able to begin effect in a month, will see international aid shipped to the port, checked by Israeli officials, and then boarded onto British, Greek, and Dutch ships for transport to Gaza.
  • “The Israeli DCO at the Erez crossing can be turned into a museum exhibit. We are disengaging entirely from Gaza,” Cohen said.

Looking ahead: After Arab efforts to draft a UN Security Council resolution yesterday failed due to US differences with the wording proposed, Blinken spoke with counterparts from Egypt and the UAE in an effort to find an alternative text.

  • Israeli media reports this morning that significant Arab states, the UAE and Saudi Arabia among them, are threatening to scale back their aid contributions unless the fighting in the Strip is ended in January.
  • Pressure from Israel’s allies to reduce the intensity of the fighting continues. Blinken said: “We continue to believe that Israel does not have to choose between removing the threat of Hamas and minimizing the toll on civilians in Gaza.  It has an obligation to do both and it has a strategic interest to do both.”
  • “The conflict will move and needs to move to a lower-intensity phase, and we expect to see and want to see a shift to more targeted operations with a smaller number of forces that’s really focused in on dealing with the leadership of Hamas, the tunnel network, and a few other critical things.”

December 20, 2023

IDF in control of Gaza City

Gaza Strip: Following weeks of intense fighting, military officials said yesterday that IDF forces now have complete freedom of operation inside Gaza City.

  • The neighbourhood of Jabalya has now been completely conquered, after around 1,000 combatants were killed and another 3,500 people were taken prisoner. Among the prisoners are around 500 suspected terrorists, some of whom participated in the October 7 massacre.
  • The IDF noted, “since the beginning of the ground operation in the Gaza Strip, IDF troops have identified about 1,500 tunnel shafts and underground passages belonging to Hamas. Most of these subterranean structures have been found beneath schools, hospitals, mosques, UN facilities and civilian institutions.”
  • Speaking on a tour of the Gaza border on Tuesday Defence Minister Gallant said, “in northern Gaza, operations are focused on completely purging the Gazan theatre and on-going underground, into the tunnels at enormous depths below ground.”
  • In the southern Gaza Strip, Gallant said, “Khan Yunis has become the new capital of terrorism. We are operating there; the operation will cross stages and will continue until we achieve our objectives. We will get to every place we need. We won’t relent from this place. We will put the senior members of this murderous organisation where they deserve to be: either in the cemetery or in prison.”

Lebanon border: Fighting continued to intensify along the northern border yesterday.

  • Air raid sirens were heard repeatedly throughout the day and several Hezbollah drones are thought to have crossed over Israeli airspace, which the IDF successfully intercepted.
  • In one incident near Yiftah, the IDF intercepted six launches from southern Lebanon.
  • In response, the Israeli Air Force continued to target Hezbollah cells responsible for attacks as well as Hezbollah infrastructure close to the border.

Context: In parallel to the fighting, renewed efforts to reach another deal to release more of the hostages continue.

  • There remain an estimated 129 Israelis still held captive by Hamas and other groups inside Gaza.
  • For the second time this week, as part of the pressure campaign, a new hostage video was released on Tuesday evening, this time by Palestinian Islamic Jihad. The recording is of two Israeli hostages: Gadi Mozes, 79, and Elad Katzir, 47, who were kidnapped from Kibbutz Nir Oz on October 7. Mozes’ wife, Efrat, was murdered that day. Katzir’s mother, Hannah was also kidnapped and was released last month. His father, Rami, was murdered.
  • It is estimated that some of the hostages may still be held underground in northern Gaza, further complicating military operations. The IDF are cognisant of their failure last week that led to the accidental killing of three hostages. It has since been revealed that the soldiers that killed them were unaware of the improvised signs for help written in Hebrew found by other troops in the vicinity.
  • Earlier this week, talks resumed between Mossad Director Barnea, CIA Director Burns and Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani in Poland.
  • Israel is prioritising the release of the women who were meant to be released in the last round, and then men over the age of 60 and those who are ill or with serious injuries.
  • In return, Israel is considering releasing Palestinian prisoners who were convicted of more serious acts of terrorism than in the previous deal.
  • According to Barak Ravid in Walla, Israel is prepared to agree to a one week pause in the fighting in exchange for the release of 40 Israeli hostages.
  • According to The Washington Post, as part of a hostage deal Israel would consider a two week ceasefire and would also gradually withdraw troops from northern Gaza.
  • Last time, Israel was able to secure the release of 80 hostages in the same timeline, but the ‘price’ for releasing men is considered higher.
  • Also on Tuesday, footage was released  of the director of the Kamal Adwan hospital in Jabaliya being interviewed by Shin Bet investigators. As part of his interrogation he revealed the duality of the hospital also serving as a base for Hamas to conduct operational activity. Among his revelations: 16 members of the hospital’s staff, including doctors and nurses also had roles in Hamas’s military wing. He also said that some of the hostages were held on site.
  • The IDF also conducted a review of shooting in the area of the Latin Church in Shajaiya on Sunday in which two women were killed. According to the IDF, the review found that “Hamas terrorists launched a Rocket Propelled Grenade at IDF troops from the vicinity of the church. The troops then identified three people in the vicinity, operating as spotters for Hamas by guiding their attacks in the direction of the IDF troops. In response, our troops fired towards the spotters and hits were identified. While this incident occurred in the area where the two women were reportedly killed, the reports received do not match the conclusion of our initial review which found that the IDF troops were targeting spotters in enemy lookouts. We are continuing our examination of the incident.”
  • They went on to note, “the IDF takes claims of strikes on sensitive sites very seriously, especially churches that are the holy sites for the Christian faith. The IDF directs its operations against the Hamas terrorist organisation and not against civilians, regardless of their religious affiliation. The IDF takes many measures to mitigate harm to civilians in the Gaza Strip. These efforts stand in contrast to Hamas that does everything in its power to endanger civilians and exploits them, as well as religious sites, as human shields for their terrorist activities.”

Looking ahead: Defence Minister Gallant confirmed that the “ground operation will be expanded to additional places.” There are several areas inside Gaza that the IDF has not yet entered including areas in central Gaza and Rafah in the south.

  • Due to the sensitivity and close proximity to Egypt, the security cabinet is expected to discuss the nature of operations in Rafah and along the border. An operation to some extent will be necessary to prevent Hamas replenishing arms though their smuggling routes in the future.
  • As Israel contemplates extending the fighting in the south, there is an understanding that they need to keep some infrastructure in place. In order for some entity to eventually take over, the water supply, some municipal services, schools must be protected. It is also likely that the displaced civilian population will need to remain in temporary accommodation for some time, and so (learning the lessons of other conflicts, such as Iraq) some infrastructure must be kept in place.
  • Foreign minister David Cameron will travel to Jordan and Egypt this week to push for a sustainable ceasefire and further humanitarian pauses in Gaza.

December 19, 2023

Hamas releases new hostage video

  • The men appeared gaunt, with their beards cropped deliberately Islamic style and read off a Hamas prepared message pleading for their release.
  • The video is the latest example of Hamas psychological warfare, with speculation that these three elderly men were chosen deliberately, to influence the next stage of a potential deal.
  • Meanwhile in Poland, Mossad Director David Barnea, Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani, and CIA Director Burns met to discuss a potential new hostage deal.
  • Israeli media reports suggest that the gaps between Israeli and Hamas expectations are large, with Israel prepared to offer a brief pause in fighting after the release of hostages, and Hamas insisting that a longer ceasefire be effected before any hostages are freed.
  • A new deal is thought to be the most immediate priority of the Biden Administration, and Burns instructed accordingly. US eagerness stems from a desire to both see Israeli hostages return home, and for the fighting in the Gaza Strip to be reduced in intensity.
  • Israel insists that any pause in fighting would be followed immediately by a return to intensive operations in pursuit of its war aims. Israel also argues that any Hamas concessions on hostages are due largely to military achievements, and that further progress will yield more hostage releases in the future.
  • The sense of national shock and anger prompted by last Friday’s friendly fire deaths of three hostages is also thought to have persuaded the Israeli government that the time is ripe for a fresh hostage negotiation.
  • Israel’s negotiating position is thought to be:
    • All negotiations with Hamas will be conducted under fire and there is to be no pause in the fighting until hostages are freed.
    • Second, the deal will resume from the point it broke off, meaning all the women still being held hostage should be freed first.
    • Third, Israel is insisting that the terms for the release of each category of hostage be clear, after the women, then the elderly and ill men.

US Secretary of Defence in Israel: Lloyd Austin arrived in Israel on Monday along with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Brown.

  • They met Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defence Minister Gallant and Minister Gantz and focused on a range of issues, including the Gaza offensive, the Houthis’ attacks on Israel and on international shipping and the ongoing tensions between Israel and Lebanon.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu highlighted the commonality in all those threats, saying, “this is a battle against the Iranian axis, the Iranian axis of terror.”
  • Secretary Austin noted this is his fourth visit to Israel as Secretary of Defence and his second since October 7th.  He said, “I’m here to underscore what President Biden has said again and again: our commitment to Israel is unshakeable.“
  • Austin added, “America’s commitment to Israel is unwavering and no individual, group or state should test our resolve.”
  • Austin announced, “in the Red Sea, we’re leading a multinational maritime taskforce to uphold the bedrock principle of freedom of navigation. Iran’s support for Houthi attacks on commercial vessels must stop. Now, we’ll continue to provide Israel with the equipment that you need to defend your country… including critical munitions, tactical vehicles and air defence systems.”
  • He also added, “we must get more humanitarian assistance in to the nearly two million displaced people in Gaza and we must distribute that aid better.
  • Later, in their joint press conference Defence Minister Gallant said, “our common enemies around the world are watching. They know that Israel’s victory is the victory of the free world, led by the United States. Our war is against the Hamas terrorist organisation, not the people of Gaza. We are fighting a brutal enemy that hides behind civilians.”
  • Gallant continued, “billions of dollars have been invested in Gaza, money that should have gone to civilian infrastructure, and instead, was used to build a network of tunnels, hundreds of kilometres long, equipped with military facilities.”
  • Gallant added, “in northern Gaza our troops have eliminated thousands of terrorists, destroyed military infrastructure, and dismantled most of the battalions operating in the area.”
  • “In southern Gaza, In Khan Younis, we are precise and focused on eliminating Hamas leadership and military infrastructure.”
  • Regarding IDF conduct, Gallant said, “unlike our enemies, we are defending our values, and we operate according to international law. The IDF is operating to minimise harm to the civilian population. We are also working with international partners, to facilitate the delivery of . Yet, anytime we discuss humanitarian issues, we must remember, the 129 hostages still held in Gaza. This is the most humanitarian issue.”

Gaza Strip: The IDF has today announced that Master Sgt. (res.) Daniel Yacov Ben Harosh, 31 and Cpt. (res.) Rotem Yosef Levy were killed fighting in the northern Gaza Strip yesterday. Yesterday, the deaths of seven other soldiers were announced, with the total casualties since the beginning of the ground operation now standing at 131.

  • Fighting continues throughout the Strip, with Israel saying it has now taken full control of Beit Hanoun in the north, and made key advances in Shajaiya.
  • In Beit Hanoun, “many terrorists” were eliminated, and weapons depots, rocket launchers, underground command centres, and “significant” tunnels destroyed.
  • The IDF also discovered the Beit Hanoun battalion’s main tunnel, which it says was sited deep within civilian infrastructure, including the city hall, a mosque, a football court, and a daycare centre.
  • The opening of the Kerem Shalom crossing to aid has already resulted in a significant increase in total aid arriving into the Strip. 200 trucks arrived on Sunday, the first time that total has been reached since the start of the war.

The north: Hezbollah continues its attacks across the northern border. On Monday a rocket landed in an open area inside the town of Kiryat Shmona. Israel has continued the retaliation.

  • Three rockets fired towards Israel from fell in open areas in the Golan Heights. Israel fired on the source in response, as well as at a Syrian military position.

Context: The visit of US Secretary of Defence and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff further underscores the close coordination between Israel and the US.

  • Austin also noted his visit included the opportunity for the head of the US army General Brown and the head of the Israeli army General Halevi to discuss, “the most sensitive issues on the agenda, in full transparency and trust.”
  • All the shared threats are orchestrated by Iran. The US and Israel remain highly concerned over Iran’s continued uranium enrichment. The prospect of Iran reaching the nuclear threshold would have a profound influence over Israel’s military decision making.
  • Whilst Hezbollah continues its attacks in the north, Israel is hoping that US diplomatic efforts bear fruit in negotiations with the Lebanese to remove Hezbollah forces from the border area. Gallant told Austin, “if such a process will not be implemented diplomatically, we will not hesitate to act.”
  • According to Channel 12 News, a small Foreign Ministry team has, at the request of Foreign Minister Cohen, drafted a secret policy document for the National Security Council that will be presented to the security cabinet in the future. The document deals with both security and civilian recommendations for Gaza. On security:
    • The IDF will retain full freedom of action.
    • The Gaza Strip will be fully demilitarised and action will be taken to prevent any military build-up.
    • A buffer zone will be established.
    • A mechanism will be created to prevent smuggling along the Egyptian border (Philadelphia corridor) and to allow oversight of the Rafah crossing into Egypt.
    • Israel will maintain the maritime security zone.
  • On the civilian front:
    • An international mechanism will be formed to provide .
    • Managing everyday life will be an integrated combination including:
      • Key international partners.
      • International organisations that already operate in Gaza.
      • Local elements not identified with Hamas.
  • Whilst this plan does not specifically mention the Palestinian Authority (PA), the final point could include them. This would appeal to the US and the international community who have explicitly called for the PA to be engaged, along with Saudi Arabia (considered the other key international partner cited above).
  • However, Netanyahu has repeatedly ruled out a role for the PA.

Looking ahead: There is hope that with head of the CIA Burns invested in the hostage negotiations, he is best placed to put pressure on Qatar that can in turn influence Hamas.

  • When asked about timeline at the press conference Austin said, I’m not here to dictate timelines or terms,” nevertheless the speculation in Israel suggests the US expects Israel to wrap up the ground offensive by the end of January.

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