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Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Key background
  • Hamas is an Islamist Palestinian nationalist movement which currently governs the Gaza Strip. It is proscribed by the UK and in the majority of western countries.
  • Its primary state backers are Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. It is also active in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon.
  • Since seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has continuously launched attacks against Israel and weaponised civilian infrastructure by embedding itself into schools, mosques, and hospitals.
  • Hamas’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel killed 1200, and over 250 hostages were subsequently taken to the Gaza Strip.

Updated January 12, 2024

UK backs Israel in the Hague

What’s happening: South Africa presented their case to the International Court of Justice on Thursday, accusing Israel of committing genocide against the Palestinians in Gaza.

  • Their claim appeared to be based partly on bellicose rhetoric, including from extremist, peripheral members of the Israeli government that the South African lawyers argued are key figures in determining Israeli policy.
  • Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s spokesman condemned South Africa’s initiative as “completely unjustified and wrong….legal action does not serve the cause of peace. The UK government stands by Israel’s clear right to defend itself within the framework of international law.”
  • Similarly, the US has said there were no grounds to accuse Israel of committing genocide in Gaza. US State Department spokesman Matt Miller said that “allegations that Israel is committing genocide are unfounded. In fact, it is those who are violently attacking Israel who continue to openly call for the annihilation of Israel and the mass murder of Jews… Genocide is one of the most heinous acts any entity or individual can commit, and such allegations should only be made with the greatest of care. Israel has the right to defend itself against Hamas’ terrorist acts — acts that Hamas has vowed to repeat again and again until Israel is completely destroyed. Israel is operating in an exceptionally challenging environment in Gaza, an urban battlespace where Hamas intentionally embeds itself with and hides behind civilians.”
  • This morning Israel will make the case for the defence.
    • They will explain that Israel is a fighting a defensive war, after Hamas initiated their brutal massacre on October 7.
    • Since then Israel has conducted their military campaign in line with international law.
    • IDF’s air strikes in the Gaza Strip are based on accurate intelligence information targeting legitimate military targets.
    • Israel operates a policy of distinction and avoids harming Gazan civilians as much as possible.
    • As part of the campaign, Israel made significant efforts to encourage civilians to leave the war zone, so as not to be caught in the fighting.
    • The defence will also emphasise that Israel allows supplies of water, food, and medicine into the Gaza Strip based on the capacity of the border crossings.
  • Israel’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lior Haiat described the hearing as “one of the greatest shows of hypocrisy in history, compounded by a series of false and baseless claims.”

Context: The charge of genocide is offensive and inaccurate. Israel perceives this as a political trial with South Africa serving as a proxy for Hamas.

  • In a bitter irony, it was Hamas who acted with clear intent to commit genocide on October 7, had they not been stopped by the IDF.
  • Inside Gaza, they continue to use their civilian population as human shields and operate military infrastructure from within hospitals, schools, UN shelters, mosques and churches.
  • Almost 100 days since the war began, 136 hostages remain in Hamas captivity, denied access to Red Cross representatives and medical care.
  • According to Hamas, over 23,000 Palestinians have been killed. Whilst Israel regrets innocent deaths, the death toll alone as part of an intense and complex war does not equate to genocide. Furthermore, Israel’s current assessment is that out of these fatalities at least 8,000 were combatants.
  • The ICJ was set up after the Holocaust. Genocide is defined in Article II of the Genocide Convention of 1948 as committing various acts with intent to destroy a national, ethnic, racial or religious group, in whole or in part. The Israeli government has repeatedly stated that its objective is to destroy Hamas.
  • The ICJ is the United Nation’s highest court, its rulings are theoretically legally binding, but not enforceable.
  • Unlike the International Criminal Court (ICC), the ICJ cannot prosecute individuals for genocide, but its opinions could influence foreign governments policy and international institutions.
  • The panel of judges selected by the UN General Assembly includes judges from France, Germany, Australia, India, Slovakia, Jamaica, Japan, Brazil, Russia, China, Morocco, Somalia, Lebanon and Uganda.
  • As part of the protocol, both South Africa and Israel also have a representative on the panel of judges. Israel sent former Supreme Court president Aharon Barak.
  • Barak, a child survivor of the Holocaust, escaped the Kovno ghetto in a sack of hay, before becoming a world renowned jurist. In Israel there is hope that his influence among the other judges during the consultation process will limit the damage.
  • Jeremy Corbyn, the former leader of the Labour party was in the Hague yesterday, supporting the South African and Palestinian case.
  • Although the South African claims appear unfounded, Israel faces internal criticism over the government’s message discipline, with the prime minister accused of not having reigned in extremist ministers and for failure to articulate a diplomatic vision for Gaza.

Looking ahead: In the first instance South Africa is appealing for the court to issues an injunction demanding the end of the war.

  • The court could declare a whole range of options:
    • It could absolve Israel of guilt.
    • It could also side with South Africa and issue an immediate call to end the war.
    • It could also include recommendation for range of actions.
    • A call to expand , (Israel already appears open to this).
    • Insisting Gazans should be allowed return to their homes in north Gaza. Israel has so far conditioned their return on the release of hostages.
    • Support for more international organisations to enter Gaza

January 11, 2024

ICJ hears first arguments in “genocide” case, as war cabinet discusses new hostage proposal

 

ICJ: The International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague will today hear arguments alleging that Israel has violated the Genocide Convention, to which it is a signatory.

  • The hearings are a result of an urgent appeal, lodged by South Africa, designed to have the court force Israel to “immediately suspend” its military operations in Gaza.
  • The hearings will focus on the request to issue a provisional order against Israel, while Israel’s arguments will be heard tomorrow.
  • South Africa’s application alleges that Israel has violated several articles of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide during the war, including committing genocide, incitement to genocide, attempted genocide, and failure to punish incitement to genocide.
  • The president of the court is Judge Joan Donoghue from the United States. Other judges are from France, Germany, Australia, India, Slovakia, Jamaica, Japan, Brazil, Russia, China, Morocco, Somalia, Lebanon and Uganda.
  • Both South Africa and Israel have sent judges who were nominated as ad hoc members of the panel. Israel’s judge will be former Supreme Court president Aharon Barak. Israel’s principle legal representative in the court will be British attorney Malcom Shaw.
  • Isaac Herzog yesterday dismissed the case as “atrocious” and “preposterous.” Visiting US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in Tel Aviv on Tuesday that the charge of genocide brought by South Africa in the ICJ is “meritless,” and called it “particularly galling” because “Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and their supporter Iran continue to openly call for the annihilation of Israel and the mass murder of Jews.”
  • US State Department spokesman Matt Miller also said in a statement that “allegations that Israel is committing genocide are unfounded. In fact, it is those who are violently attacking Israel who continue to openly call for the annihilation of Israel and the mass murder of Jews… Genocide is one of the most heinous acts any entity or individual can commit, and such allegations should only be made with the greatest of care. Israel has the right to defend itself against Hamas’ terrorist acts — acts that Hamas has vowed to repeat again and again until Israel is completely destroyed. Israel is operating in an exceptionally challenging environment in Gaza, an urban battlespace where Hamas intentionally embeds itself with and hides behind civilians.”

Hostages: After a delegation of the hostages’ families returned from Qatar, a new Qatari proposal for a deal was put to Israel which the war cabinet discussed.

  • Mossad Director David Barnea, who recently spoke with the Qatari prime minister, shared that information with the security cabinet. The deal reportedly calls for the release of all the hostages in a number of stages, in exchange for the IDF’s complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and the exile of the Hamas leaders.
  • Israeli officials told Kan Radio that it was their understanding that the Qatari proposal, had not been coordinated with the Hamas leadership.
  • Hamas leader Ismail Haniya in Qatar said that Israel will never get its hostages back unless it releases all the prisoners who are in jail, which also appears to be Yahya Sinwar’s position.
  • President Joe Biden sent his envoy Brett McGurk, who played a major role in reaching the last hostage deal, to Qatar.
  • Minister Benny Gantz said yesterday: “The most urgent thing is the hostages’ return. That has priority over any course of action in the fighting. If there are any hostages who are watching us now, it is important that you know—we are doing everything for you to return to your loved ones, who have never stopped fighting for you. There is no channel that they are not working on, there is no path that they haven’t trod for this to happen. Be strong.”
  • IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said the army had located a tunnel in Khan Yunis in which hostages had been held. “The troops located a tunnel in which hostages were held in harsh difficult conditions below ground. We brought international correspondents into them today for them to reveal to the world the crimes that Hamas commits against humanity. The hostages are the supreme effort. In the past too, there were quite a few operations that we did not report [to rescue them]. There were also operations that we stopped.”

Jerusalem/West Bank: The police and Shin Bet announced that they had arrested two individuals suspected of belonging to ISIS and of planning to carry out an attack against security forces. The two were allegedly planning to make explosive devices, inspired by videos published by the Islamic State which they watched online. The suspects, aged 21 and 23, are residents of Jabel Mukaber in East Jerusalem. The police said they found paedophilia material on one of the individual’s mobile phones, initiating an investigation into the matter.Context: The South African case rests on the large number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza, its allegations that food, water, and medical care available to the Gazan population has been restricted, and statements by Israeli government ministers about Palestinians in Gaza it alleges amount to incitement to genocide.

  • Israeli Justice Ministry officials believe there is a real chance the ICJ will agree to South Africa’s demands and will issue some kind of injunction against Israel.
  • At the same time, it is not expected to call for a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip,
  • The court can also instruct Israel to allow in the Strip, to establish an independent inquiry, or to allow displaced Palestinians to return to northern Gaza.
  • Such provisional instructions do not rely on the court concluding that the case brought has been proven, only that it is plausible. The bar to establish plausibility of genocidal actions is much lower than a final definitive determination.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu, meanwhile, made it clear yesterday that “Israel has no intention of permanently occupying Gaza or displacing its civilian population. Israel is fighting Hamas terrorists, not the Palestinian population. And we’re doing so in full compliance with international law.”
  • Senior Israeli officials reiterated yesterday that any proposal to free the hostages that includes a demand to end the war and to withdraw IDF troops as a precondition for negotiations is unacceptable and would not be given positive consideration. Yahya Sinwar does also not appear to be prepared to go into exile.
  • The mediators hold their talks with Hamas’s political leadership, which is not based in the Gaza Strip. That leadership is headed by Ismail Haniya, who lives in Qatar. The degree of influence he has over Sinwar is uncertain.
  • Hamas’s overseas leadership did not formally respond to the idea of exiling Hamas’s [Gaza] leadership, but did say that Yahya Sinwar and his brother Muhammad and Mohammed Deif and Marwan Issa would “scornfully dismiss the idea of leaving the Gaza Strip.”
  • The United States has been exerting massive pressure on Qatar to advance a deal: one channel with Qatar is being run by CIA Director William Burns, whereas Biden personally dispatched his envoy Bret McGurk. An Israeli delegation is also scheduled to leave for Cairo in the next few days to continue the talks.
  • Hamas had previously rejected similar proposals and had insisted that any release of Israeli hostages must be met with the release of Palestinian prisoners.

Looking ahead: Initial ICJ rulings are expected in the next few weeks with a final ruling likely to take years.

  • Israel is due to approve in the next few days the entry of 400 trucks carrying into Gaza every day, instead of the 200 that enter today. Reports suggest that a promise was made to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in meetings in Israel yesterday that this number would increase further.
  • Amos Hochstein will meet with officials in Beirut later “in an effort to advance discussions to restore calm” along the border between Lebanon and Israel. A US National Security Council spokesperson said: “The United States has made clear it does not support the ongoing conflict spreading into Lebanon and continues to exhaust all diplomatic options to see Israeli and Lebanese civilians return to their homes and live in security and stability.”

January 10, 2024

Escalation on the northern border

What’s happened: Both Israel and Hezbollah have stepped up their attacks and counter-strikes in southern Lebanon and northern Israel.

  • On Monday, Israel carried out a targeted assassination of the commander of Hezbollah’s elite commando Radwan Force, Wissam al-Tawil.
  • On Tuesday Hezbollah retaliated with extensive attacks across northern Israel using missiles, rockets, and UAVs.
  • As a result, air raid sirens sounded in 26 northern communities.
  • One of Hezbollah’s attacks targeted the IDF’s Northern Command’s main headquarters in Safed. Whilst some were shot down, two UAVs evaded interception and exploded in the base causing no injuries and only minimal damage. According to Hezbollah, this attack was in revenge for the killings of al-Tawil and Hamas commander al-Arouri.
  • In response, the IDF struck and killed the squad that launched the UAV.
  • In addition, the IDF also targeted and killed Ali Hussein Burji, who served as the Hezbollah commander of their aerial unit in southern Lebanon and was responsible for the UAVs targeting the northern command. Lebanese sources claimed he was killed by a missile striking his vehicle close to the site of al-Tawil’s funeral.
  • This morning, the IDF renewed their strikes in southern Lebanon.

Context: Since the war began, 14 Israelis have been killed in northern Israel, whilst 158 Hezbollah operatives have been killed by the IDF.

  • In total, Hezbollah has carried out over 600 attacks. The damage would have been far higher on the Israeli side, if not for 42 communities that been evacuated, which includes 60,000 Israelis. In addition, over 20,000 have voluntarily left their homes in the north.
  • Although the evacuations have saved lives, it poses a complex set of dilemmas as to when they will feel safe to return home.
  • Hezbollah has demonstrated an array of methods to attack, including anti-tank missiles with a high degree of accuracy, and sophisticated UAVs. There is also concern that these UAVs could in the future be deployed en masse, with a swarming effect that could overwhelm Israeli defences.
  • The attack on the northern command HQ was Hezbollah’s second attempt to strike a strategic site in the north, following the attack on the Mount Meron air control base.
  • It appears the IDF has changed its approach and is now focusing on targeted killing operations against senior Hezbollah commanders.
  • Israel’s objective remains to remove the elite Radwan Force commandos from close proximity to the border area, but without crossing the threshold that would start a full-scale war. The IDF is managing the northern arena, whilst the campaign in Gaza remains the main focus.
  • Hezbollah’s agenda is complicated: on one hand it creates the linkage within the Iranian backed axis and the war in Gaza (they began their assault on October 8th.  When there was a temporary ceasefire, during the release of hostages Hezbollah also held fire, even though not part of the agreement). On the other hand, Hezbollah leader Nasrallah has stated that his calculations are independent of Hamas and based on pre-existing claims against Israel.
  • The Iranian agenda supports Hezbollah’s continued attacks against Israel, to keep it in a perpetual state of conflict but below the threshold of all out war. The assumption remains that Iran seeks to keep Hezbollah’s most lethal capacity as an insurance policy against any future attack against the Iranian regime.
  • Israel strives to restore its deterrence, based on strikes against Hezbollah and the damage inflicted in Gaza, to create pressure inside Lebanon to restrain Hezbollah.
  • In the last three months, the IDF has claimed a series of achievements in the north:
    • They have displayed an impressive intelligence and operational capability to target cells and individual commanders.
    • To a degree, some of the Radwan Force has been pushed away from the border fence, though not as far north as the Litani River.
    • There has been extensive damage to Hezbollah’s infrastructure and command posts.
    • All this whilst keeping civilian casualties to a minimum.
  • Both sides appear to be reliant on their advanced UAV capabilities, both for attacks and intelligence gathering.
  • US Secretary of State Blinken related to the challenges in northern Israel, saying yesterday, “the United States stands with Israel in ensuring its northern border is secure. We’re fully committed to working with Israel to find a diplomatic solution that avoids escalation and allows families to return to their homes, to live securely in northern Israel and also in southern Lebanon.”

Looking ahead: The calculations for both sides to keep this conflict relatively contained remain precarious.

  • There is still hope that the US’s diplomatic efforts to end the fighting in the north will prevail.
  • Hezbollah still has a significant stock of precision guided missiles, along with an array of long range missiles with large warheads, that could inflict heavy damage on Israel’s home front, far from the northern border.
  • Any subsequent ground operation could also be on a substantially larger scale than that seen in Gaza.

January 9, 2024

Successful strikes in the north, as Israel suffers more loses in Gaza

The north: Hezbollah has confirmed that the commander of its Radwan force was killed yesterday morning in a strike attributed to Israel.

  • Wissam al-Tawil’s (also known as Jawad) car was attacked in the village of Khirbet Selm, about 15 kilometres from the Israeli border in southern Lebanon.
  • Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said that Israel “took responsibility for the operation, it is part of our war,” while Hezbollah said that al-Tawil had died a “martyr on the path to Jerusalem”.
  • Al-Tawil was responsible for the for the ambush in 2000 in which the soldiers Adi Avitan, Benny Avraham and Omar Suwayed were killed and kidnapped, and for the 2006 kidnapping and killing of Israeli soldiers Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser, a precipitating factor in the start of the Second Lebanon War. He was also behind last year’s explosive attack near Megiddo in northern Israel, and planned an invasion of northern border communities.
  • The IAF also attacked a military compound, infrastructure and rocket launchers in the northern Lebanese villages of Marwahin and Aita-al Shaab last night.
  • Tawil’s killing takes the number of Hezbollah fighters killed since October 7th to at least 151, while reports this morning suggest that three Hezbollah members have been killed in a targeted strike on their vehicle in the town of Ghandouriyeh.
  • Israel announced yesterday that it had also killed Hassan Hakashah, the central figure behind Hamas rocket attacks from in a strike on Beit Jinn.
  • “We will not allow terrorism from Syrian territory and hold responsible for all activity emanating from its territory,” the military said.
  • Air raid sirens sounded this morning across northern Israel, and rockets were fired into the Ramat Naftali area. Safed residents have been told to remain in safe rooms after an Israeli interceptor was fired at a suspicious target that apparently infiltrated from Lebanon.

Gaza Strip: This morning it was announced that four more IDF soldiers were killed in action yesterday in the Gaza Strip, taking the total to 180 since the start of the ground campaign.  In addition, six more soldiers were hospitalised in serious condition.

  • In southern Gaza, the IDF is expanding its operations inside Khan Yunis. According to the IDF Spokesperson’s office over the last day, “approximately 40 terrorists were killed. In addition, significant terror tunnel shafts were located, as well as a variety of weapons, including twelve AK-47 rifles, four loaded RPG launchers, dozens of grenades, cartridges, and military vests.”
  • Also in Khan Yunis the IDF exposed another tunnel shaft near a school and found evidence of students training with weapons.  They also found, “explosives, weapons, grenades, communications devices and large quantities of intelligence documents.”
  • The IDF added, that during the operations, “several RPG missiles were shot at the forces. The forces engaged in close-quarters combat and eliminated the terrorist cell that carried out the shooting with both tank fire and airstrikes.”
  • In central Gaza yesterday troops uncovered, “the largest weapons production site found since the beginning of the war.” According to the IDF, they found:
    • Components for long-range rockets capable of reaching northern Israel.
    • Underground long-range rockets manufacturing facilities.
    • Explosives and mortar shells accuracy enhancers.
    • Tunnel shafts reaching approximately 30 metres underground.
    • Light weapons and UAVs.
  • Despite IDF advances, Hamas continue to fire rockets out of Gaza into Israel. 14 rockets were fired towards southern Israel early Monday evening. In total Hamas and other terror organisations have launched over 13,000 rockets and mortars since the war began.

Context: Al-Tawil is thought to have been a close associate of Qasem Soleimani, the former commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force killed in a US strike in early 2020.

  • Al-Tawil’s death comes as Hezbollah has intensified attacks on northern Israel in the wake of last week’s assassination of Hamas official Saleh al-Aruri in Beirut.
  • Hezbollah fired more than 60 rockets at the Mount Meron base as an initial response to the killing, causing significant damage to a sensitive strategic air traffic control base.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu met yesterday with soldiers on the northern border, pledging to do anything to “restore security to the north and to let Hezbollah “know that we cannot be messed with.”
  • “Hezbollah made a big mistake with us in 2006 and is making a big mistake with us now. They thought we were cobwebs, and suddenly they see we are a spider… We showed the organisation what’s happening to its friends in the south, and that’s what’s going to happen here in the north. We will do everything we can to restore security.”
  • Merom Galil Regional Council Chairperson Amit Sofer warned Kan Radio this morning that Israel was not prepared for an escalation in fighting in the northern theatre. “Precious time is being wasted [that could be used] to prepare for the major scenario of missile fire,” he said. “I think we have use this time to prepare. There are huge fortification gaps [shortfalls] here in the area of shelters. We aren’t talking about some huge project. With a few million, we could save lives.”
  • The US fears that all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah could trigger a wider regional conflagration, and is determined to see a diplomatic solution which would ensure that Hezbollah personnel and infrastructure are moved sufficiently north of the Litani river to allow for the safe return home of Israel’s evacuated northern residents.
  • Both Secretary of State Blinken and Amos Hockstein, the diplomat who brokered the 2022 maritime deal between Israel and Lebanon are working to this effect. The French have also been involved in trying to prevail on the Lebanese government to act to move Hezbollah north beyond the Litani.
  • Israeli officials are increasingly pessimistic about the chances of success of these diplomatic moves, and fear that only a military solution can restore security to the northern envelope.
  • The conventional wisdom was that Hezbollah, too, wished to avoid all-out war, and that its Iranian patron was holding the organisation’s extensive 150,000 missile and rockets arsenal back for use should Israel mount an attack on Tehran’s nuclear programme.
  • US Secretary of State Blinken arrived in Israel last night, for his fifth visit since the war began.
  • For the US benefit and in an effort to maintain international legitimacy, Israel declared that it was transitioning to the third stage of its war in the Gaza Strip.
  • The third stage currently seems to apply to the northern part of the Gaza, where the IDF is reducing its heavy concentration of troops. This next stage is expected to feature pinpoint raids and strikes on Hamas targets that would be carried out from Israeli territory.
  • There is criticism in Israel that the announcement of the transition to the third phase appeared first in English, in the US media and not to the Israeli public.
  • Secretary Blinken is expected to press Israel to allow Gazans from the north to return to their homes, however Israel is looking to condition their return for progress in the release of the remaining hostages.
  • These events are being interpreted in Israel as the coming to fruition of the conflicting timetable which have been identified for some time: between Israeli military estimates of a total defeat of Hamas which might be very bloody and take many months, and of US expectations for a much swifter end to intense fighting in Gaza.
  • The IDF remains convinced that strong military pressure on the southern Gazan city of Khan Yunis remains crucial to the release of more Israeli hostages held by Hamas.

Looking ahead: The IDF has still not conducted any ground operations along the Egyptian border.  The vast amount of weapons that Hamas has attests to the scale of the ability to smuggle in weapons though this route and makes it a key issue to end the war and ensure Hamas cannot rearm.

  • Families of the hostages are planning to protest at Kerem Shalom, the entry point of into Gaza.
  • In parallel, Arabic media sources are reporting an Israeli delegation is in Cairo for indirect talks to renew negotiations for the release of hostages.

January 8, 2024

Iranian-backed guided missile equipment found in Gaza

Gaza: Israel announced its soldiers had uncovered equipment used by Hamas to develop precision-guided missiles under Iranian tutelage.

  • The guided-missile programme was discovered during a raid of a Hamas site near Gaza City’s Daraj and Tuffah neighbourhoods, which led to an underground weapons manufacturing plant.
  • The IDF said it discovered “components proving terrorists of the Hamas terror organisation studied under Iranian guidance how to operate and build precision components and strategic weapons.”
  • Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said the IDF has dismantled Hamas military units in northern Gaza and was now focused on the southern part of Gaza.
  • “We will continue to deepen the accomplishment, to bolster the obstacle and the defensive elements along the border,” Hagari said. “At the moment, we are focusing on dismantling Hamas in the central Gaza Strip and in the southern Gaza Strip. We will do so in other ways, on a fundamental level, based on the lessons we’ve gleaned from the fighting so far.”
  • Hagari added that the refugee camps in central Gaza are crowded and full of terrorists, and that an underground city of tunnels runs beneath Khan Yunis.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu said to ministers that “the war must not be stopped until we complete all of its goals – the elimination of Hamas, the return of all our hostages, and a promise that Gaza will no longer pose a threat to Israel… I say this to both our enemies and our friends. This is our responsibility and this is the commitment from all of us.”
  • The IDF and Shin Bet successfully assassinated the commander of Hamas’s Nuseirat battalion, Ismail Siraj, and his deputy, Ahmed Wahaba, in an airstrike in Gaza on Saturday evening.
  • Also on Saturday, the IDF announced the death of 31-year-old Lt. Col. Roie Yosef Mordechai of Tel Aviv.
  • An airstrike yesterday in Rafah killed Hamza Wael Dahdouh, the son of Al Jazeera’s Gaza correspondent Wael Al-Dahdouh, and Mustafa Thuria, a video stringer for AFP who was also working for the Qatar-based TV outlet. The IDF Spokesperson’s Unit said that a military aircraft “identified and struck a terrorist who operated an aircraft in a way that put IDF forces at risk.”

The north: Hezbollah said it fired more than 60 rockets at the Mount Meron base as an initial response to the killing of Hamas official Saleh al-Aruri in Beirut last week. The IDF confirmed that the attack caused significant damage to a sensitive strategic air traffic control base.

  • IAF jets attacked Hezbollah targets, including an armaments warehouse, rocket firing installations, infrastructure to direct terror operations and technology sites. It also hit several targets in villages close to the Israel-Lebanon border.
  • The IDF said two of the compounds targeted were “significant assets” of Hezbollah, one of which had housed a surface-to-air missile squad.
  • Five Hezbollah fighters were killed, bringing the total number to over 150 since October 7th.
  • Minister Benny Gantz said, “The situation in which residents of the northern border can’t return to their homes needs an urgent solution. The world needs to remember that it was the Hezbollah terrorist organisation that started this escalation. Israel wants a political solution. If that doesn’t happen, the State of Israel and the IDF will remove the threat. All of the war cabinet ministers share that position. The only consideration is Israel’s security. That is the duty of every country towards its citizens.”

East Jerusalem & West Bank: Several border policemen were seriously wounded and one killed during an IDF operation in the Jenin refugee camp overnight on Saturday. The Palestinians reported six dead.

  • IAF aircraft eliminated a terror cell that had thrown IEDs. Combat helicopters provided cover from the air to allow for the wounded to be evacuated.
  • An East Jerusalem man was also shot dead in a terror shooting north of Ramallah.
  • A Palestinian child was mistakenly killed by security forces and a Border Police officer was lightly injured during a car-ramming attack at a checkpoint in East Jerusalem.

Context: Hamas’s possession of precision guided technology would represent a dangerous upgrade to the terror group’s weapons capabilities.

  • Hagari explained why the below-ground challenge, which suffers from a lack of intelligence at its core, requires slow, complex fighting. At the same time, Khan Yunis has been bearing the brunt of the IDF’s pressure as it tries to get to Yahya Sinwar.
  • After completing the task of destroying the command and control capabilities of Hamas’s battalions in the area in northern Gaza, the IDF has de-facto transitioned to the third phase of the war. It primarily features the use of intelligence-guided pinpoint raids, while reserving the option of operating freely if need be.
  • According to the IDF, all 12 Hamas battalions in northern Gaza, which represent half of its manpower in all of Gaza, have been destroyed. Remaining are four battalions in central Gaza, four in Khan Yunis and four in Rafah, although a military operation there seems unlikely due to Egyptian concerns.
  • During a situational assessment held at IDF Central Command, Chief of Staff Halevi said that 2024 will be a challenging year and that the army will be “fighting in Gaza all year round.”
  • Israel assesses that Hezbollah used a Kornet Russian anti-tank missile in its attack against the base on Mount Meron. An advanced Kornet missile has a range of up to 10 kilometres.
  • Violence in the West Bank has continued since the beginning of Operation Guardian of the Walls. In that period, troops have arrested more than 2,550 wanted Palestinians across the West Bank, including more than 1,300 affiliated with Hamas. Palestinian Authority (PA) health ministry data states that approximately 300 West Bank Palestinians have been killed – including more than 100 members of the various PA security organisations, most of them armed men involved in clashes with the IDF.

Looking ahead: US Secretary of State Blinken is due to visit this week. Blinken has also stressed the importance of defusing the situation in the north.

  • “We are looking at ways diplomatically to try to defuse that challenge, that tension,” Blinken said, “so that people can return to their homes, that they can live in peace and security, and this is something that we’re very actively working on.  It’s going to be part of the discussions we have over the coming days not just in Israel but some of the other countries concerned.”
  • Israeli officials are increasingly pessimistic regarding achieving a diplomatic solution in the north. Israel believes Amos Hochstein’s attempt at forging a political arrangement will likely fail, and that a war with Hezbollah may become inevitable. Both Chief of Staff Halevi and Minister Benny Gantz emphasised the importance of residents being able to return to their homes and stressed that if this couldn’t be achieved via pressure, Israel would act to remove the threat.

January 5, 2024

Gallant presents plan for ‘the day after’

What happened: Defence Minister Yoav Gallant yesterday presented a plan to reporters about the ‘day after’ in Gaza.

  • “Hamas will not rule Gaza, and Israel will not exercise civil control over Gaza,” Gallant said. “It’s Palestinians who live in the Gaza Strip, which is why Palestinian players will be responsible for it, on the condition that they are not hostile toward Israel and will not operate against it.”
  • “There will be no civil presence by Israel in the Gaza Strip after the war’s goals are achieved. Israel will not be responsible for civil life in the Gaza Strip.”
  • Gallant presented a four-part mechanism for the situation in Gaza.
    • Israel will supervise the entry of goods into the Gaza Strip.
    • A multi-national force, led by the US, Western European countries and moderate Arab states which will be responsible for rebuilding Gaza.
    • A civil Palestinian apparatus, which already exists in Gaza, comprised of clans, local bureaucrats, government officials
    • Egypt, together with Israel and the US, are working on creating a way to secure the border between Egypt and Gaza.
  • Yesterday evening in the security cabinet meeting, ministers were shown a plan whereby the residents of the northern Gaza Strip will return in a few months to facilities that will be established with donations by Western countries.
  • Security officials believe that the right thing is to allow the residents of the northern Gaza Strip to return only after the hostages are returned to Israel.
  • Right wing ministers criticised Gallant’s plan: “Gallant’s ‘day after’ plan is a re-run of the ‘day before’ October 7,” Finance Minister Smotrich said, adding, “the solution for Gaza requires out-of-the-box thinking and a changed conception [which includes] encouraging voluntary emigration [of Gazans] and full [Israeli] security control including renewed settlement.”
  • Minister Ben Gvir showed the security cabinet his own plan for the ‘day after,’ which consisted of building Israeli settlements and military positions throughout Gaza.
  • Also yesterday, Chief of Staff Halevi announced the composition of the team that will investigate the circumstances leading to October 7th and the war.
  • Four right-wing ministers lambasted Halevi because the team leader is to be former defence minister and chief of staff Shaul Mofaz, who endorsed disengagement from Gaza in 2005.
  • Gallant and former defence minister Gantz defended the Chief of Staff. The prime minister told the chief of staff that sometimes the ministers had to be listened to and then ended the discussion.
  • The number of hostages in Gaza was revised and raised to 136 last night. Three civilians who had been declared missing are now said to be hostages.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu met with the Biden Administration envoy Amos Hochstein and told him that Israel has an obligation to bring about a fundamental change on its border with Lebanon.

Context: Yesterday’s cabinet meeting is the first time a discussion on the ‘day after’ in Gaza took place since the war began.

  • Netanyahu has insisted that the PA in its current form cannot be tasked with taking over Gaza after the war.
  • According to reports, Israel and Egypt, partnering with the United States, will cooperate in using technological and physical measures above and below ground to effectively isolate the Gaza Strip’s border with Egypt.
  • The team appointed by the chief of staff will be led by Mofaz and major generals in reserves Yoav Har-Even, Aharon Farkash and Sami Turgeman. Their investigation will be in parallel to an inquiry by the IDF General Staff, which is currently underway and led by Maj. Gen. Moti Baruch, into operational events in the Gaza theatre.
  • The IDF has effectively begun to transition to phase 3 of the Gaza operation, which includes a gradual reduction of forces and a focus on the arenas of activity.
  • Israel will likely switch to a new mode of fighting that will include aerial strikes and raids on land, the destruction of underground tunnels and special operations.
  • The army needs to discharge reserve forces to reduce the damage to the economy, and wants to prepare units for the possibility of a serious escalation in Lebanon down the road.
  • In the southern part of Gaza, no changes are expected in the nature of combat where high-intensity combat is ongoing. It is thought this will continue at least until the end of January.
  • An Israeli official denied that Israel was engaged in negotiations with any country about the possibility of taking in Gazan residents. “That’s fake [news]…let’s say that Smotrich would like to carry that out. What can he do? The report as if the former British prime minister, Tony Blair, has been engaged on the issue is fake [news]. That never happened.”

Looking ahead: US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is scheduled to visit Israel on Monday, his fifth visit since the war began. He will also visit other Middle Eastern countries.  Once in Israel, Blinken will meet with senior officials to discuss Israel’s vision for the day after the war.

  • The US administration continues to emphasise that Israel must transfer tax revenues to the PA, otherwise the authority will collapse. The Netanyahu coalition includes members who are adamantly opposed to this.
  • Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah is expected to deliver a second speech within three days later today.

January 4, 2024

Nasrallah’s threats heighten tensions in the North

Northern front: Hezbollah Secretary General Nasrallah gave a speech yesterday on the 4th anniversary of the US assassination of Qassem Soleimani.

  • “In one fell swoop an active ‘resistance’ front arose against Israel, but all the organisations on the ‘front’ are working by themselves, at their own paces, with their own priorities, without receiving operational instructions from Iran. Iran’s role is simply to provide weapons, ammunition, military equipment, training and operational instructors, not to give operational orders.”
  • Nasrallah also touched on the domestic situation in Israel. “You hear voices against the government inside Israel. You see political camps speaking out even against the Israeli air force. This is the first time a real war has been going on inside Israel. Even outside Israel, there is an ‘anti’ atmosphere. Only the United States and Great Britain are cooperating, while 153 countries around the world come out against Israel and call on it to stop murdering innocent Palestinians in the Gaza Strip…Everything Israel has touched since October 7 is doomed to failure. They have no security, and if there is no security, Israel will lose its right to exist. I call on the Zionists—pack your bags and go somewhere else that will agree to take you. After all, every Israeli has a passport from another country.”
  • “We will not take this contemptible assassination lying down. I promise that Hezbollah’s response will come. Naturally, I’m not going to reveal what we are planning, but Israel will regret this assassination.”
  • At least 95 people have been killed by two bomb explosions near Soleimani’s tomb yesterday. Iran blamed Israel but it is considered most likely the work of Sunni jihadists.
  • The IDF attacked a Hezbollah command post last night, killing four Hezbollah operatives, including the commander of the Naqoura District, Hussein Yazbak. Yesterday was one of the deadliest days for Hezbollah, with 9 of their operatives killed. A total 149 Hezbollah fighters have been killed since the start of hostilities in October.
  • IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Halevi visited the northern border and held a situation assessment meeting “We are very strongly prepared here in the north,” said Halevi. “We are very well prepared in all the theaters; at the moment we are focusing on the war against Hamas.” He added that despite the dififcult circumstances, the war has produced an opportunity to change the situation very significantly in the south and in the north and as a whole in the regional posture.”
  • IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said yesterday that Israel has thwarted Hezbollah’s operations along the border and has dealt with other challenges in the Red Sea and . He added that the IDF was prepared on all fronts.
  • US President Joe Biden spoke to Prime Minister Netanyahu and told him that the United States would continue to maintain a “significant presence” in the region. The conversation took place following reports that the Americans were planning to redeploy one of the two aircraft carriers, the USS Gerald R. Ford and the battleships that accompany it, from the Red Sea.

Gaza Strip: The IDF continues to operate across the Gaza Strip including deep inside the southern city of Khan Yunis.

  • The IDF has also made further advances in the central areas of the Strip including in Nuseirat, al-Ma’azi and Bureij.
  • As a result of the operations, more Gazan civilians are being encouraged to move south.
  • According to Palestinian sources, the current population in Rafah, which was 250,000 before the war, now exceeds 1.2 million people.
  • IDF Spokesperson Hagari said that, “in Khan Yunis, our forces continue to operate underground. This operation takes time, both for our forces’ safety and because we use classified and new methods. We do not want to reveal our combat methods to the enemy.”
  • “In the central camps, we continue to strike. There is a significant operation there and terrorists are killed daily. This is alongside our forces locating and identifying production sites. These sites, where Hamas produces and assembles rockets, some are located underground with significant manufacturing machinery, including some from other countries, including Iran.”
  • IDF troops destroyed a 250 metre long tunnel that was discovered beneath the Shifa Hospital compound in Gaza City. According to the IDF the tunnel led to a number of major Hamas command posts.
  • The hospital itself was not damaged and it has continued to operate normally.
  • Despite intensive IDF operations, Hamas are still launching rockets into southern Israel. This morning sirens once again sounded in Ashkelon, and two rockets intercepted.
  • The IDF has informed the family of Sahar Baruch, who was kidnapped from Kibbutz Beeri, that he was killed during an IDF special forces operation in the northern Gaza Strip to free him on December 8. The IDF is unable to say definitively whether Sahar was murdered by Hamas or whether he was killed by Israeli gunfire. In addition, two IDF special forces soldiers sustained serious injuries in the operation.
  • A senior Israeli official has briefed Israeli media that the comments of right wing politicians encouraging Gazans to leave Gaza does not represent Israeli government policy.      

Context: As planned, Nasrallah dedicated his speech to head of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Qassem Soleimani.

  • Soleimani’s strategy was to surround Israel with a ‘ring of fire’ – Iranian proxies in Iran, , Yemen and Lebanon possessing significant missile capability that could attack and deter Israel.
  • The speech came a day after a drone fired two missiles that struck a third floor apartment in the Dahiya neighbourhood of Beirut killing the number two in Hamas’s external leadership Salah al-Arouri. Nasrallah had previously promised that any Israeli action on Lebanese soil that killed a senior Lebanese, Palestinian, Iranian or Syrian official would lead to a powerful reaction.”
  • Despite the rhetoric, analysts believe Nasrallah’s speech signals Hezbollah is unlikely to carry out a significant response to Arouri’s killing (which would then require a strong Israeli response which could lead to a serious risk of war). It also suggests that Hezbollah is deterred and prepared to tolerate a blow even in the heart of the Dahiya district of Beirut.
  • The group will likely seek to carry out a ‘proportionate’ response which may involve trying to kill a senior Israeli official along the northern border or abroad.
  • There is ongoing concern in Israel over the plight of the estimated 133 hostages still held inside Gaza. Following the assassination of Arouri, the negotiations are currently halted.
  • As part of the coalition agreement, a year after the government was formed Foreign Minister Cohen, and Energy Minister Katz switched roles.  On his first day as the new foreign minister (a role he has held in the past) Katz spoke to Foreign Secretary Cameron. Katz expressed, “deep appreciation for Britain’s unwavering support for Israel after the Hamas October 7th terrorist attack.”  He also highlighted the importance of opposing South Africa’s motion against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) at The Hague.
  • The US announced that it has carried out its own investigation, which supported the IDF finding regarding Hamas infrastructure underneath the Shifa Hospital in Gaza City.

Looking ahead: US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein will visit Israel today and meet with senior officials to try and prevent escalation in the north. Hochstein, who previously brokered the Israeli Lebanon maritime border, is reportedly trying to mediate an agreement on the ground border between the two countries.

  • Israel maintains that the pre-October 7th status quo on the northern border cannot be returned to, and that that Hezbollah, and its elite Radwan force in particular, must be moved north of the Litani river, as called for by UN Resolution 1701.
  • The US and France have made efforts to induce the Lebanese government to act to remove Hezbollah fighters from the border area, but Israel has also affirmed that if diplomatic initiatives fail it will be forced to take military action to secure the north. Secretary of State Blinken will visit Beirut on Tuesday, after pushing off the visit that had been planned for tomorrow following the assassination of al-Arouri.
  • Following a delay, the security cabinet is expected to convene this evening and discuss the ‘day after’. Ministers are expected to be shown the plan that was drafted by the National Security Council and Minister Ron Dermer.
  • Next week the ICJ will hold two open hearings related to the South African allegations that Israel’s operations in the Gaza Strip constitute genocide. Unlike in the past, Israel intends to challenge these allegations in the court. From Israel’s perspective all of its military operations are carried out in compliance with the international laws of war.

January 3, 2024

Surgical strike in Beirut targets Hamas number two

Strike in Beirut: Early yesterday evening a drone fired two missiles that struck a third floor apartment in the Dahiya neighbourhood of Beirut.

  • Inside the apartment was a meeting of Palestinian leaders, among them Salah al-Arouri, the number two in Hamas’s external leadership, and Ismail Haniyah’s deputy.
  • According to Lebanese media, 6 other people were killed in the strike. Three were identified as Samir Pandi, the commander of Al-Qassam Brigades in Lebanon, Azzam al-Aqra and Khalil al-Hayya, two more senior Hamas officials.
  • Israel has not taken formal responsibility, neither confirming or denying the strike, but Prime Minister Netanyahu recently warned and gave his consent to pursue all the Hamas leaders and those responsible for the October 7 massacre.
  • The responsible party combined precision munitions with accurate and timely intelligence to ensure that only Hamas leaders were targeted while minimising collateral damage.”

Context: Arouri is the most senior figure killed so far in response to the October 7 attack.

  • Originally from a village in the Ramallah area, he was a founding member of Hamas’s military wing.” He was released from Israeli prison in 2010 and exiled to , several months before the Shalit prisoner deal, but in hindsight was considered as part of the process that lead to the deal.
  • After Hamas fell out with Assad’s indiscriminate killing during the Syrian civil war, he relocated to Turkey and then to Beirut.
  • He remotely oversaw recruitment, funding and arming of terror cells in the West Bank and was considered to have been behind many attacks in recent years.
  • In that capacity he took responsibility for the kidnapping and murder of three teenagers in 2014 that precipitated the Operation Protective Edge that summer.
  • Prior to October 7 he was at the top of Israel’s wanted list due to his dual role as the Hamas interface with Iran and Hezbollah and his overall responsibility for West Bank terror attacks.
  • Whilst in Lebanon he was the main Hamas figure that coordinated with Hezbollah, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Iran. He was the leading figure ensuring Hamas was part of Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ and was reportedly disappointed that Hezbollah and Iran have not (until now), joined the fighting in more strident manner.
  • He also led the phenomena of the last couple of years of Palestinians firing rockets from southern Lebanon into Israel (alongside Hezbollah).
  • He is the most senior Hamas figure to be assassinated since Ahmed Jabari was killed in 2012.
  • Within Hamas he was a considered a political rival to both Sinwar and Haniyah. He saw himself as future leader, based on his close ties with Iran and operational responsibility for terror attacks emanating from the West Bank.
  • The attack took place in Dahiya neighbourhood, long considered the Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut. This fact places Hezbollah in a dilemma: on one hand this is an attack literally in their backyard, yet on the other, the precision strike meant no Lebanese were harmed. There are voices inside Lebanon appealing to Hezbollah leader Nasrallah not to drag Lebanon into war as a result.
  • Last summer Nasrallah said, “any assassination on Lebanese soil of a senior Lebanese, Palestinian, Iranian or Syrian official will certainly have a powerful reaction. We won’t be able to be silent in the face of an act of that kind and we won’t allow Lebanon to become a front for assassinations.” While October 7 changed Israel’s calculations, the current assessment suggests Hezbollah will keep its response under the threshold of all-out war.
  • Israel has not taken formal responsibility for the strike. In his regular evening briefing IDF Spokesperson Hagari did not relate to Arouri’s assassination. However, other officials have spoken out. Likud MK Danny Danon wrote on X, “I congratulate the IDF, the Shin Bet, the Mossad and the security forces for killing senior Hamas official Salah al-Arouri in Beirut. Anyone who was involved in the 7.10 massacre should know that we will reach out to them and close an account with them.”
  • It is still unclear to what extent Arouri was involved in the direct planning of October 7. Some analysts saw him as a key figure in all of Hamas military plans, while others suggest he was only made aware of the attacks the morning they started, at which point he then updated Nasrallah.

Looking ahead: Today marks the 4th anniversary of the US assassination of IRGC Commander Qassam Soleimani and Nasrallah was due to give a memorial speech tonight. Analysts are waiting to see if he will still speak, whether he will stick to his original script, and how he will respond to Arouri’s death.

  • Israel is on a heightened level of alert, moving more Iron Dome missile defence systems to the north and waiting to see how Hamas and Hezbollah will respond.
  • The strike appears to have put any hostage negotiations on hold for now.
  • The Israeli security cabinet had been expected to begin to debate plans for ‘day after the fighting’ this discussion was also postponed to a later date.

January 2, 2024

High Court dramatically overrules key judicial reform

The High Court of Justice: On Monday evening the court announced its ruling on petitions challenging the amendment to Basic Law: The Judiciary that was passed into law in July. The court ruled in an 8:7 majority vote to strike down the amendment in its entirety.

  • Twelve of the fifteen justices ruled that the Supreme Court possesses the authority to exercise judicial review of Israel’s basic laws, and to intervene in exceptional and extreme cases in which the Knesset has exceeded its authority as the branch of government empowered to legislate the provisions of the constitution through the passage of basic laws.
  • Former Supreme Court President Esther Hayut who is about to retire wrote: “In my view, it is not possible to square the amendment to the Basic Law on the Judiciary and the principle of the separation of powers and the principle of the rule of law, which are two of the most important characteristics of our democratic system. Such a violation at the very heart of our founding narrative cannot stand.”
  • Justice Isaac Amit wrote that “the State of Israel is in need of additional engines to strengthen democratic government. But the amendment to the basic law that eliminated reasonableness grounds with respect to anything related to decisions of the cabinet and its ministers moves in the opposite direction and further strengthens the power of the executive branch.”
  • Justices Noam Sohlberg and David Mintz dissented from the majority on the issue of the court’s jurisdiction to exercise judicial review of basic laws and of the court’s jurisdiction to rule on the issue. They argued that there is no source of authority under Israeli law for such judicial review. They added that even if such authority exists, the court should not have overturned the reasonableness amendment to the basic law because the case does not meet the criteria that the majority laid down for disqualification of a basic law.
  • The ruling was criticised by the government. Justice Minister Yariv Levin said “The judges’ decision to publish the decision during a war is the opposite of the spirit of unity needed at this time for the success of our fighters on the front.” He described the ruling as creating a “situation in which it is even impossible for the Knesset and the government to legislate basic laws or to make decisions without the judges’ approval.” The Likud party said that the Supreme Court’s decision “opposes the will of the people for unity, especially during wartime.”
  • Leader of  the Opposition Lapid praised the ruling. “The Supreme Court fulfilled its duty today in safeguarding Israeli citizens, and we give it full backing.” Minister Gantz called for broad agreement. “After the war, we will have to formalise the relationship between the powers and legislate a Basic Law: Legislation that will anchor the standing of basic laws. We will do that with broad agreement, with open discussion, thoroughly and with stateliness while maintaining respect between all citizens of Israel.”

Context: The Knesset’s decision to cancel the ‘reasonability standard’ in July was the first of the government’s planned judicial reforms to actually be passed into law.

  • The amendment to Basic Law: The Judiciary sought to cancel the court’s ability to use reasonability as grounds for striking down government decisions and appointments.
  • The government argued that the court possessed no legal or constitutional basis to review Basic Laws, seeing as they have quasi-constitutional status. During the hearing, the Likud  party stated that “The Knesset receives its authority from the people. The government receives its authority from the Knesset. The court receives its authority from the Basic Laws enacted by the Knesset.”
  • Opponents argued that Israel’s democratic culture is unique – the country possesses no second chamber, nor a written constitution, and the list system (which concentrates power over MKs to party leaders, as opposed to their being parliamentarians answerable to their constituency) ensures that the executive is generally able to exercise de facto control over a majority of the Knesset.
  • In this context, the existing system provides a vital separation of powers and an independent judiciary – with partial capacity for overruling the legislature and executive – provides a crucial brake on executive power and functions as an essential guarantor of liberal democratic norms and minority rights.
  • There is currently no distinction between the way the Knesset passes a Basic Law and a regular law (both require only a basic majority), leaving the special status of Basic Laws open to different interpretations and legal ambiguity.
  • Following the court’s announcement, the IDF Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Hagari was asked how Israel’s internal divisions could have influenced Hamas’s decision to launch its attack on October 7. Hagari said, “things will be clarified in the in-depth inquiry,” he added. “presumably the feature of a rift, the military’s readiness, maybe in its perception that is one of the features that is linked to this.”
  • He added that contrary to Hamas’s assumptions, the IDF was now fighting with full unity in its ranks, which he said reflected the strength of Israeli society.

Gaza Strip: The IDF continues its operations against Hamas military targets in the south, centre and north of the Gaza Strip.

  • On Monday the IDF announced another reservist killed in action, by an explosive device in the northern Gaza Strip. Another 11 soldiers were wounded in the incident, two of whom are hospitalised in serious condition.
  • The IDF also revealed that 29 of the 170 soldiers killed in the ground operation, were killed either in accidents or as a result of friendly fire. Eighteen were killed by friendly fire as a result of misidentification; two were killed by friendly fire in incidents in which troops fired in excess of restrictions; and nine were killed in other accidents.
  • On Sunday the IDF confirmed that another Hamas Nukhba commander was killed in an airstrike.  Adel Mesmah was the commander of the forces that targeted Kibbutz Kissufim on October 7. He also sent terrorists into other kibbutzim, including Beeri and Nirim. He then went on to command Hamas forces inside the Gaza Strip until his death.
  • Also in northern Gaza, the IDF located and destroyed the tunnels of Hamas’ general headquarters. According to the IDF Spokesperson, “in the tunnels was an electricity network, ventilation and sewage infrastructure, prayer rooms and resting rooms.” The tunnel was connected to an apartment used by Hamas leader Sinwar. The IDF added they, “discovered that a strategic tunnel shaft was located on the basement floor… apparently used by the senior officials of Hamas’ Military and Political Wing. The apartment is part of a long and branching tunnel network…The tunnel was built so that it would be possible to stay inside it and conduct combat from it for long periods of time.” Footage of the tunnel can be seen here.
  • Despite the continued fighting, the IDF has begun to reduce the number of troops deployed inside the Strip. Two reservist brigades have been discharged, and three standing army brigades have been sent back into training.
  • In parallel, Hamas continue to fire rockets into Israel. At midnight, as 2024 began they fired at least 20 rockets towards central Israel, at least 10 were intercepted.
  • The head of Southern Command Maj. Gen. Yaron Finkelman met with the troops in central Gaza, and said, “The combat will continue in a range of methods, a range of intensities and shifting forms.”

Northern border: Hezbollah continues its attacks on military and civilian targets close the northern border.

  • In response the IDF have continued to target the cells that launch the attacks as well as Hezbollah infrastructure.
  • In one incident five soldiers sustained light injuries after coming under fire from Lebanon.
  • Hezbollah announced that another fighter was killed last night, taking their total to 138.
  • In addition, five rockets were fired into Israeli yesterday from , they all landed in open areas on the Golan.
  • Syrian sources accused the IDF of attacking targets in in retaliation. According to Syrian media, the IDF attacked a number of targets in the suburbs of Damascus early this morning.
  • Israel has not officially commented, but this is thought to be the sixth attack inside , ascribed to Israel in the past week.

Looking ahead: Israeli media report that the IDF has drafted a plan to empower local clans in Gaza to  distribute . The plan, which will be presented today to the security cabinet, would divide Gaza into regions and sub-regions, each one of which is to be governed by a clan. In addition to distributing entering from Egypt and from Israel, the clans will be tasked with overseeing civilian affairs in Gaza for an interim period.

  • Prime Minister Netanyahu told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee that if the Palestinian Authority wants to participate in governing the Gaza Strip on the day after, it must undergo fundamental change and to prove it has done so in the way it governs in the West Bank.
  • Minister of Defence Gallant has suggested the displaced communities, within a range of four to seven km north of the Gaza strip, will soon be able to return home.
  • In an unprecedented move, Israel intends to send a representative to the International Court of Justice at The Hague and to demand that the court dismiss the motion that was filed by South Africa asking the court to issue an interim injunction instructing Israel to desist from all military action in the Gaza Strip.
  • National Security Council Director Tzahi Hanegbi told Yediot Ahronot, “The State of Israel has been a signatory of the Genocide Convention for the past six decades, and we certainly won’t boycott the hearing. We will be there and will repel the absurd suit, which constitutes a blood libel. The Jewish people has experienced on its own flesh more than any other nation what genocide is. Six million of our people were slaughtered with boundless brutality. Similar brutality was used against the citizens of Israel in the October 7 massacre, but this time we have the ability to defend ourselves against those who rise up to annihilate us. The absurd suit against  the victim’s right to self-defence is a disgrace, and our expectation from all civilized countries is to show solidarity with that assertion.

December 29, 2023

UK and allies condemn Iran

UK and allies condemn Iran

Iranian threat: The UK along with France, Germany, and the US condemned Iran for its latest nuclear steps that were reported earlier this week by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

  • The IAEA report stated Iran had reversed a months-long slowdown in the production rate of highly enriched uranium up to 60 percent purity at its Natanz and Fordow nuclear plants.
  • In the joint statement, the countries described the IAEA findings as representing “a backwards step by Iran and will result in Iran tripling its monthly production rate of uranium enriched up to 60 percent” and that they “add to the unabated escalation of Iran’s nuclear programme.”
  • Iranian decisions demonstrate the country’s “lack of good will towards de-escalation and represent reckless behaviour in a tense regional context.”
  • The countries concluded that they “remain committed to a diplomatic solution and reaffirm our determination that Iran must never develop a nuclear weapon.”
  • The IAEA report raises fears that the Islamic Republic is slowly advancing towards achieving nuclear weapons capacity. In June, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini said, “the West could not stop Iran from building nuclear weapons if Tehran wanted a pursue a nuclear arms programme.”
  • The joint statement by Western powers emphasised that “the production of high-enriched uranium by Iran has no credible civilian justification.”
  • Foreign Secretary David Cameron described Iran as a “thoroughly malign influence in the region and in the world” and that the Iranian leadership and its proxies needed to be sent an “incredibly clear message that this escalation will not be tolerated”.

Lebanon: Hezbollah launched around 50 rockets and missiles as well as two drones at Israel yesterday.

  • Repeated drone infiltration and rocket alert sirens sounded throughout the day including in Haifa, Acre, Kiryat Shmona and other towns in the Upper Galilee. One drone was intercepted near Haifa that entered from Lebanon.
  • The IDF carried out widespread strikes in southern Lebanon in response.
  • sources have claimed that Israel attacked several targets from the air in the area of Damascus and southern . Among the targets was the Damascus Airport that has claimed had been struck on numerous occasions. Israel sees the airport as a significant hub of Iranian efforts to transport advanced weapons to Hezbollah and their Syrian proxies.
  • In an unusual incident, late Wednesday evening a suspected explosive-laden drone crashed in the southern Golan Heights, with an Iran-backed Iraqi militia taken credit for launching the attack.
  • Attacks along the northern border from Lebanon since October 8 have caused the death of four civilian deaths and nine IDF soldiers. Israeli responses in Lebanon and Syria have killed 129 members of Hezbollah, 16 Palestinian terror operatives, a Lebanese soldier, and at least 19 civilians.
  • Also Wednesday, an Israeli strike in Syria killed Razi Mousavi, an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) operative, with a rank of Brig. Gen who was involved in arms smuggling operations from Iran, arms production in Syria and channeling money to Hezbollah and other Shiite militias.
  • His assassination suggests Israel has escalated its battle against Iranian proxies to also target Iranian operatives themselves.
  • Earlier this week, Defence Minister Gallant, speaking at meeting of the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee, said Israel was in a seven front war and had acted in six of them. “We are being attacked from seven different arenas: Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, [the West Bank], Iraq, Yemen, and Iran.” He added that “We have already responded and acted in six of these areas [not Iran], and I say here in the clearest way: Anyone who acts against us is a potential target, there is no immunity for anyone.”
  • The IDF remains in active manoeuvres in three areas:
    • Completing their takeover of the final two neighbourhoods (Darj and Tifah) in Gaza City.
    • Extending into the Bureij area in the centre of the Gaza Strip.
    • Targeted operations in the southern city of Khan Yunis.
  • In all these areas, whilst encountering difficult combat above ground, thousands of tunnel shafts have been exposed, many in Mosques, schools and UN facilities. These will require several more weeks or even months to completely decommission.
  • The only remaining area that the ground troops have not yet reached is the southern most area of Rafah and the Philadelphia Corridor along the Egyptian border.

Rafah and the Philadelphia Corridor: Prior to October 7, Rafah had a population of about a quarter of a million people. There are now 1.25 million people in Rafah.

  • The corridor is 13km long and runs from the sea to Kerem Shalom and bisects the city of Rafah into two; a Gazan and an Egyptian town.
  • Rafah and the corridor have long been the main smuggling route for Hamas and it is considered essential to disrupt this channel in order to prevent further rearmament in the future.
  • So far the Israeli Air Force has carried out targeted strikes, but no ground forces have operated in the area.
  •  The high population density and the close proximity and sensitivity of Egypt further complicates any prospective military action.
  • The Egyptians are wary that any IDF ground incursion could create more pressure of Gazans looking to flee into Egypt.
  • One idea, thought to have been explored with Egyptian and US officials, is to build a deep underground barrier along the Egyptian side of the border fitted with technological devices similar to those that were installed on the Israel – Gaza border.
  • Unlike the overground wall that was breached so significantly on October 7, the underground barrier has so far been fully effective. The technology included the ability to provide indication as to whether any digging is being done in the vicinity.
  • A new barrier could be built on the Egyptian side, which would help avoid direct IDF confrontations with Hamas.
  • The new proposal would see the establishment of a joint Israel – Egyptian control room to monitor any future digging attempts.
  • Israel is also keen to establish a monitoring mechanism to inspect legal above ground aid and goods entering Gaza from Egypt.
  • In parallel, Israel along with Cyprus and the UK are exploring the establishment of a sea corridor for the efficient entry of and supplies.

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