Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Updated January 22, 2024

Government faces pressure as Gaza operation continues

What’s happened: The IDF continue to operate deep in Khan Yunis, and have made advances in the south and west of the city.

Defence Minister Gallant met with the families of hostages on Sunday and told them that as they advance in Khan Yunis, there are initial signs that reaching Hamas’s most sensitive areas is moving Israel closer to accomplishing the two supreme missions of the war.
On Sunday, the IDF released footage of a tunnel where hostages had been held underneath Khan Yunis.
In parallel, family members of the hostages set up a tent encampment outside the prime minister’s private home in Jerusalem. Gabriela Leimberg, who spent 53 days in captivity to Hamas, told the gathering, “Mr. Prime Minister, every day in captivity is hell. The soldiers and the hostages were abandoned on your watch. They are out of time. I ask you, rescue them and bring back all the bodies.”
On Sunday Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “We are continuing the war on all fronts and in all sectors. We are not giving immunity to any terrorist: Not in Gaza, not in Lebanon, not in Syria and not anywhere. Whoever tries to harm us, we will harm him.”
“Regarding our hostages, we have returned home – as of today – 110 of our hostages and we are obligated to returning all of them. This is one of the goals of the war and the military pressure is a necessary condition to achieving it.”
“Hamas is demanding, in exchange for the release of our hostages, the end of the war, the withdrawal of our forces from Gaza, the release of the murders and rapists of the Nukhba and leaving Hamas in place. Were we to agree to this – our soldiers would have fallen in vain. Were we to agree to this – we would not be able to ensure the security of our citizens. We would be unable to safely restore the evacuees to their homes and the next October 7 would be only a question of time. I am not prepared to accept such a mortal blow to the security of Israel; therefore, we will not agree to this.”

Context: The Israeli government continues to insist that military pressure is the best way to secure the release of more hostages, but faces increased pressure from the family of the hostages, from the US, and from the political opposition.

The tents erected in Jerusalem are the latest efforts to ratchet up the pressure by the families of the hostages. After over 100 days the campaign is evolving. Over the weekend around 2,000 people protested outside the prime minister’s home in Caesaria.
On Thursday evening, seven protestors were detained after they blocked the main Tel Aviv highway – a tactic used by those campaigning against judicial reform last year.
Netanyahu and his government are also facing growing pressure from the US to present a diplomatic vision for the ‘day after’.
After three weeks of not speaking directly, Netanyahu said that he told President Biden over the weekend, “after we eliminate Hamas, there will no entity in Gaza that finances terrorism, educates for terrorism or sends terrorists. Gaza must be demilitarised, under Israel’s full security control. I will not compromise on full Israeli security control of all territory west of the Jordan River.”
Netanyahu also declared, “My insistence is what has prevented, over the years, the establishment of a Palestinian state that would have constituted an existential danger to Israel. As long as I am Prime Minister, I will continue to strongly insist on this.”
In the past, going back to his Bar Ilan speech in 2009, through to the Trump Peace Plan Netanyahu has cautiously accepted the principle of a demilitarised Palestinian State. Articulating such an acceptance now is harder due to the constraints of his hard right coalition partners.
Behind the scenes, it is thought that Israel could be prepared to make a deal that entails a diplomatic arrangement and the release of terrorists from prison, but not members of Hamas’s elite Nukhba force, members of which committed the October 7 massacre.
Despite international pressure, the IDF is not yet expected to withdraw from the Gaza Strip and will not let residents return to the northern Gaza Strip as long as the hostages are not returned.
Only then can reconstruction efforts begin, Israel says, led by the pro-stability Arab states.
Netanyahu’s reference to Lebanon and Syria comes as further attacks have been reported. According to Arab media sources, over the weekend five Iranian military officials from the IRGC were killed in Damascus, alongside six Syrians. One of the Iranians, nicknamed Haji Sadek, had served as senior intelligence officer and in the past had been involved in targeting US assets in Syria.
In addition, Lebanese sources reported a strike on a car near Tyre. The targets were also thought to be connected to the IRGC.
Meanwhile, attacks from Lebanon into northern Israel have also continued, including an anti-tank missile that struck an empty home in Moshav Avivim, causing significant damage.
To date, approximately 80,000 Israelis from northern communities are internally displaced due to Hezbollah’s rocket, mortar, drone, and anti-tank missile attacks from Lebanon since 7^th October. These attacks have killed six civilians and nine soldiers.
Similarly, the IDF have continued to attack Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, taking their overall casualties to 165 combatants.
Meanwhile, the Israeli government acquiesced to another US demand and approved releasing tax funds to the Palestinian Authority (PA).
However the security cabinet approved measures to ensure none of the money would reach Gaza. Instead, a new mechanism would see the money assigned to Gaza deposited in trust with a third country, Norway. Both the US and Norway have committed not to pass it onto Gaza, nor via a loan. If the clause is broken, Finance Minister Smotrich has insisted that all money to the PA will be frozen.
The Shin Bet and Defence Ministry supported the release of the funds in order to maintain stability in the West Bank and ensure the PA can survive.
Despite last week’s agreement to allow medicine into Gaza, there is still no indication that the medicine reached the hostages.
At Israel’s request, at least 45 hostages who suffer from chronic diseases were supposed to receive various medicines, including insulin, asthma inhalers, medicine for high blood pressure and heart conditions. The French Foreign Ministry who facilitated the deal said yesterday that it had no information about where the medicines were, aside from the fact that they are in Gaza.
For the first time since the war began, the Labour Party will present a vote of no-confidence in the Knesset. Whilst it does not currently have the support even from all members of the opposition, it is a declaratory move indicating that, from the Labour Party’s perspective, the period of political grace is over.

Looking ahead: Mounting pressure from the US, Egypt and Qatar could result in a return to negotiations for a hostage release deal. However, it is difficult to see Israel accepting Hamas’s terms.

According to the New York Times the US, the UK, and European officials are pressuring Israel to send Humanitarian Aid to Gaza via Israeli ports in order to alleviate the humanitarian crisis.

January 19, 2024

Latest US strike against Houthis

What’s happened: Yesterday, the US conducted its fifth strike in a week against Houthi-controlled sites in Yemen.

The latest attack was smaller than previous missions, targeting a “small number” of anti-ship missiles that the Houthis were about to launch against vessels in the Red Sea.
The US has also confirmed that yesterday the Houthis launched two anti-ship ballistic missiles on a US-owned tanker ship, Chem Ranger, in the Gulf of Aden. Although the Houthis claimed a “direct hit”, no damage or injuries were reported and the vessel continued on its way.
Overnight Wednesday, the US struck more than a dozen Houthi sites, following a Houthi drone attack on a US vessel, also in the Gulf of Aden.
Speaking yesterday, Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh said US strikes were purely defensive in nature and that the US was “not at war with the Houthis.” “The Houthis are the ones that continue to launch cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles at innocent mariners,” she continued. “What we are doing, with our partners, is self-defence.”
Adding to the tension in the Red Sea, the Iranian navy declared that its destroyer Alvarez was patrolling the Red Sea to protect Iranian vessels.

Context: According to the IDF, since October 7th, the Houthis have launched 34 ballistic missile and UAV attacks on Israel and at least 52 naval attacks on international vessels in the Red Sea.

The disruption to global trade caused by this Houthi aggression, has been significant, especially that between Europe and Asia.
In mid-December, in response, the US formed a multi-nation coalition, including the UK, dubbed Operation Prosperity Guardian. The first US military response came on December 31st, with operations ratcheted up beginning January 11th.
On 10 January 2024, the UN Security Council adopted resolution 2722 (2024) which condemned the Houthi attacks, demanded they stop, affirmed the right to freedom of navigation, and reaffirmed the arms embargo in place against the Houthis.
The Biden administration has also this week re-designated the Houthis as a terrorist organisation, having lifted the classification in February 2021 in order to ease the flow of aid into Yemen.
In a Yemen decimated by the impact of a brutal civil war, at least 75 percent of the population rely on aid for their survival.
Nevertheless, the Houthis have advanced missile and UAV capacity supplied by Iran, enabling them to attack Israel and target ships in the southern Red Sea.
Last weekend, Prime Minister Netanyahu described the conflict as “a war against the axis of evil that is led by Iran and its three proxies—the three Hs: Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis.”
In an interview published in Russian media this morning and cited by The Guardian, senior Houthi official Mohammed al-Bukhaiti said that Russian and Chinese vessels would be allowed free movement in the Red Sea, but that any vessel “in any way connected with Israel” would continue to be subject to attack.
The Guardian also quotes the Houthis leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi saying yesterday that it was a “great honour” to be in conflict with Israel, the US, and UK.

Context from the Podcast

‘The Houthis are at their core a religious revival movement of Shia Zaydi Islam, which is a sect of Islam, different from what we know [of Shi’ism] in Iran and Lebanon. They started operating in the early 1990s from the northern province of Sadat, and they were helping to revive Zaydi Islam, as it was marginalised by the central government…’
‘We saw a radicalisation of the Houthis after September 11 and then after the invasion by the US of Iraq in 2003… Yemen is very much divided, fragmented, fragile. We can see that since the beginning we had the Houthis on the one hand and the ousted central government on the other hand, with many other tribal forces and also the Southern Movement, which was calling for the independence of the south and also members of what we call the Muslim Brotherhood.’
‘All of them were part of the coalition against the Houthis. And then at the beginning of 2015, we have Saudi Arabia joining and forming a coalition of other countries, mainly Arab countries, along with the United Arab States. All of them fight in order to what Saudis say, return the internationally recognized government and also to stop the Houthis from taking over all of Yemen as they see them as an Iranian proxy.’
‘The Saudis want… out of Yemen completely. They are willing to give them many concessions in order to achieve that: in terms of changing the border line with Yemen, especially in the in the western part; in terms of allowing ships and flights to international Sanaa Airport to go in; and so many other concessions.’
‘But though the Saudis claim to have almost a done deal with the Houthis, we did not see an agreement, a full agreement of ending the war between the two powers. The situation now is very fragile and is threatening to pull once again the Saudis into Yemeni territories and might even renew the war within Yemen…’
‘And now what the Houthis are doing in relation to the war in Gaza would have implications potentially at home to renew the civil war with Saudi Arabia. And I think that as much as the Houthis don’t want that, the Saudis don’t want that even more.’
‘Radicalisation after 2003 within Houthi ranks brings us to “God is great, death to America. Death to Israel, curse on the Jews, victory to Islam”… But also with that comes a pro-Palestinian sentiment.’
‘We have to look at it not only through the eyes of their alliance with Iran… but also the gains for them within Yemen and the region and their Palestinian brothers. So you have, first of all, a lot of support that they’re gaining, both within Yemen, even from their biggest opponents, and outside in the Arab and Muslim world for helping the Palestinians.’
‘For them, it is very embarrassing, maybe for Saudi Arabia, Egypt or other countries that they’re not doing enough for the Palestinians, but the Houthis do so and it helps them perhaps magnify their part in in in the Arab and Muslim world by doing that.’

Looking ahead: Despite the Houthis’ recent attacks, it has not yet been declared by Israel to be a terror organisation. Following the US announcement designating the Houthi as such, Israel is planning a similar action and this is now being reviewed by senior security officials.

While a UK government source told The Times this week that the “option is always available” for London to follow Washington in proscribing the Houthis as a terror group, there is no evidence that moves have been made in this direction

January 18, 2024

Medical aid enters Gaza

Medication deal: Trucks transporting medication have now entered the Gaza Strip, with some of it earmarked for the hostages.

The consignment was flown into Egypt by the Qataris yesterday, before proceeding to Kerem Shalom for security screening by Israel.
It is thought to include three months’ worth of medication for those 45 of the hostages with pre-existing medical conditions.
According to Hamas officials, the terms of the Qatari-French brokered deal include 1,000 boxes of medication for Gazans for every one provided for the hostages.
The question of who will deliver the medication to the hostages, or whether or not the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) will have access to them, is unclear.
There is further scepticism on the Israeli side as to whether the medication will actually be provided to the hostages. Israel has proposed three possible methods of verification:
- Supervision by the ICRC.
- Verified video footage of hostages being administered medication, which would also serve as proof of life.
- Qatari envoys personally delivering the medication.
News of the arrival of the medication has become subsumed into the wider story of disfunction and miscommunication at the political level, after it appeared that Prime Minister Netanyahu had not kept Defence Minister Gallant and IDF Chief of Staff Halevi up to speed, prompting confusion and conflicting statements about the inspection mechanism.

Gaza Strip: The IDF continues to operate across the Strip while the most intense fighting remains in the Khan Yunis area.

Relating to fighting in Khan Yunis, the IDF said they “eliminated more than thirty terrorists in the area, just in the last day.” They also continue to operate underground in Khan Yunis, “scanning, locating, and destroying… the underground maze.”
IDF Spokesperson Hagari added, “the fighting in the tunnels and their destruction is challenging, combining new combat methods, some of which did not previously exist in the IDF, and even, If I can modestly say, not in other places in the world.”
In the central area, troops returned to the area they had previously vacated, from where Hamas launched a large barrage of rockets towards Netivot earlier in the week. Yesterday, troops located and destroyed thirty rocket launcher barrels that were hidden underground, loaded with additional rockets for further launch and ready to be fired.
According to the IDF, they also “completed the destruction of the weapon production infrastructure of Hamas’s Central Camps Brigade, a brigade that controlled the centre of the Gaza Strip. The infrastructure included workshops and factories above and below ground. These were central to Hamas’s empowerment capability, and from there, they transported the weapons and rockets to all areas of the Strip.”
“In the northern Gaza Strip, IDF troops killed two armed terrorists who planned to ambush IDF troops. Furthermore, a number of aerial strikes on armed terrorists that posed a threat to IDF troops were carried out, including against terrorists operating adjacent to a school.”

Northern border: The IDF continues to attack Hezbollah targets. On Wednesday, they struck a terrorist cell that fired rockets from Lebanon in the Mount Dov area. The IDF also confirmed they “eliminated a Hamas terrorist cell that carried out shooting from the Qlaileh area in southern Lebanon.”

Elsewhere too, several launches from Lebanon toward Israel were identified.
Around 20 rockets were launched towards the coastal Rosh Hanikara area, there were no casualties reported.
Two rockets were detected in Metula, one caused damage to infrastructure.
The IDF announced “one of the terrorist cells responsible for firing at Rosh HaNikra in northern Israel was immediately identified, tracked and struck by an IDF aircraft.”

Context: Israeli media is reporting that the impetus for a medication deal at this time came not from the government, nor from the IDF or the Defence Ministry, both of whom had been working on the medication issue for several weeks.

Instead, it appears that the Hostage and Missing Families Forum held direct talks with the French government, who began brokering the arrangement before Netanyahu then became personally involved and tasked the Mossad with facilitating the arrangement with the Qataris.
The French and Qataris had insisted on framing the deal as the initiative of a civilian body, and the public introduction of the prime minister to the equation is said to have caused its delay.
Israeli doctors have raised concerns about the hostages taking their medication without professional supervision and at the same dosage they received prior to their kidnap. “Restarting medications after such a long period of malnutrition, lack of sleep and sunlight could require dosage adjustments that only a qualified medical professional would be knowledgeable about and could guide a patient on,” Prof. Alon Hershko, a chair at Hadassah Medical Centre told the Times of Israel.
Since their capture on October 7, there has been much Israeli and international criticism of the ICRC for not gaining access to the hostages to assess their well-being.
The medication deal is not thought, at this stage, to be a precursor to a further hostage release deal. Publicly, Hamas continues to insist that further releases are contingent on a full cease-fire being declared, something Israel rejects.
The Israeli government continues to reinforce its dual objectives of destroying Hamas’s military capacity and bring about the release of the hostages.
IDF Spokesperson Hagari related to the hostages in his briefing on Wednesday evening saying, “we are making every effort to produce intelligence about the hostages and adjust the operational activity according to the intelligence available to us. It must be said to the public – there is no complete picture of the hostages. We are in a continuous intelligence effort to complete this picture, to build it, to achieve it all the time.”
In total over 250 people were kidnapped on October 7. 121 have so far been extricated, while 136 remain in captivity. Of those it is estimated at least 27 are no longer alive.
Today marks the first birthday of the youngest hostage, Kfir Bibas, taken along with his mother and four-year-old brother. In further torment for their extended family, it is unclear if they are still alive.
Although meeting the criteria of the women and children released in November, none of the Bibas family members were freed. Instead, Hamas forced the father Yarden Bibas (held separately) to appear in a propaganda video saying his wife and two young children had been killed in an airstrike. There is no evidence to ascertain if this is accurate.
As per yesterday’s BICOM briefing, the Israeli war cabinet is seemingly divided between those, like Benny Gantz and Gabi Eisenkot, who are prepared to consider ending the fighting if it means the return of the hostages, and others, such as Ron Dermer and Gallant who insist that the fighting must continue.
Gallant said yesterday, “we are continuing the fighting until victory. Until we pound the Hamas organisation, until we strip it of all its major military capabilities and remove them from power in Gaza. On the issue of hostages too, we have no right to stop the fighting as long as there are hostages in Gaza.”
Elsewhere, according to reports from US network NBC, US frustrations with Netanyahu have led the Biden Administration to begin to work together with a number of Israeli figures on the implementation of a Palestinian-Saudi plan for the post-Netanyahu era.
Netanyahu has reportedly rejected a proposal from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken which would see Saudi Arabia normalise relations with Israel in return for Israel’s cooperation with a pathway towards a two-state solution.
Blinken’s proposal is said to have come after Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and four other Arab leaders confirmed to him that they would also be prepared to fund Gazan reconstruction and support the return of a reformed Palestinian Authority to Gaza.
Prior to October 7, the Saudi normalisation deal was thought to be at a relatively advanced stage. The process had been a major priority of the Biden administration, and scuppering it a principle strategic goal of Hamas and its Iranian paymaster.

Looking ahead: Chief of Staff Halevi has said that war in the north is now a more likely proposition. “I don’t know when there will be war in the north,” he said. “I do know that I can tell you that the likelihood of this happening in the next few months is much higher than it was in the past. I can tell you that I think that we will be starting it with a lot more advantages, with a lot of experience and a lot of capabilities and with surprises, and when we have to, we will go forward with all our might.”

It is thought that even in the event of a ceasefire, Hamas would not agree to release all remaining hostages, and that it would keep at least some as an insurance policy against Israeli attempts to assassinate its top leaders.
This afternoon the extended Bibas family and supporters are gathering at Hostages Square in Tel Aviv to further highlight the family’s ongoing trauma.

January 17, 2024

IDF destroys key strategic tunnel

Gaza: The IDF announced it had destroyed a strategic tunnel used for terrorist activity that connected between the north and south of the Gaza Strip.

The tunnel was reportedly hundreds of metres long, 90 metres deep, and had close to 5,700 shafts. It was used by Hamas for getting across the Strip.
The IDF said Hamas used over 6,000 tonnes of concrete and 1,800 tonnes of steel for its extensive tunnel network and had invested tens of millions of dollars in the project.
Elsewhere, a heavy barrage of rockets from Gaza included a hit on a civilian store in Netivot. The rockets were fired from an area in Gaza that the IDF had recently left.
Meanwhile, a delegation of Israeli security officials arrived in Cairo for meetings with senior Egyptian officials.
According to a statement issued by the Prime Minister’s Bureau (following a formal Qatari statement on the issue) hostages will begin to receive medication today.
The medication for the hostages, as well as Humanitarian Aid that Israel agreed could be supplied to the Gaza Strip in exchange for said medication, will be delivered by two Qatari air force planes to El-Arish, and from there to the Gaza Strip.
The Shin Bet said that an Islamic Jihad commander, Bassel Mahdi, who was captured in Gaza, told of how members of his organisation were trained in Iran.
Two reservists were killed in fighting in northern Gaza, bringing the total death toll since the ground incursion to 192.

West Bank: A joint statement by the IDF and the Shin Bet announced three members of a terror cell were killed in Nablus by drone strike. The individuals who were killed were responsible for one of the main terror cells in the West Bank.

Abdallah Abu Shalal and his squad were responsible for a number of attacks in the past year, including the shooting attack in the Shimon HaTzadik neighbourhood of Jerusalem last April, where two Israeli civilians were injured.

The north: The IDF struck Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, on the Suluki valley more than 20 kilometres from the Israeli border. The IDF reported that it used Air Force and artillery, targeting dozens of Hezbollah “positions, military instillations and weapons production infrastructure.”

Lebanese security sources told Reuters there were at least 16 airstrikes in quick succession on the Valley, describing them as the “densest bombardment of a single location” since hostilities began.
The Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar reported that President Biden’s envoy, Amos Hochstein, proposed that Hezbollah be pushed back seven kilometres from the border with Israel and the Lebanese army be stationed in southern Lebanon. According to the report, Hochstein said that “there is no need for a withdrawal to the north of the Litani River.”

Red Sea: The Houthis targeted with naval missiles the Malta-flagged, Greek-owned carrier Zografia ship near the Yemeni port of Saleef. This resulted in a “direct hit,” according to the group. The ship, that was heading to Israel, sustained material damage but no injuries.

US Central Command conducted a strike in Yemen that destroyed four Houthi anti-ship ballistic missiles, in response for Houthi attacks on international shipping lanes in the Red Sea.

Davos: Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan told a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos that the Kingdom could normalise relations with Israel if a comprehensive deal were reached including Palestinian statehood. “We agree that regional peace includes peace for Israel, but that could only happen through peace for the Palestinians through a Palestinian state.”

Also at Davos, US Secretary of State Blinken said Arab countries claim that they do not “want to get into the business of rebuilding Gaza only to have it levelled again.”
US National Security Adviser Sullivan also spoke at Davos and explained the US’s strategy prior to October 7: “our approach was and remains focused on moving toward greater integration and stability in the region,” he said. “Long before October 7, the US was deeply engaged in an effort to secure a political horizon for the Palestinian people – with Israel’s security guaranteed as part of that.”
“We judged that direct negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians, which had fallen short so many times before, it was unlikely to succeed. We determined the best approach was to work toward a package deal that involved normalization between Israel and key Arab states, together with meaningful progress and a political horizon for the Palestinian people.”
“That was our goal before October 7, and it was our progress toward that goal that Hamas sought to destroy,” he said. He went on to say: “That is the reality Israel is contending with – a determined terrorist threat that chose as its battlefield the communities of innocent civilians, and still to this day holds more than 100 hostages in circumstances that are dire and deteriorating.”

Context: Divisions continue within the Israeli cabinet. Minister Gantz, who joined the Netanyahu coalition after October 7 in order to help prosecute the war, recently submitted a list of demands to Prime Minister Netanyahu and the National Security Council regarding seven issues that are critical for the ongoing war which need to be discussed and decisions made on them:

These include:
- Reiterating the government’s war goals, especially as they pertain to the hostages.
- The future of Philadelphi Road, which runs along the length of the Gaza-Egypt border, and the mechanism to prevent future smuggling operations.
- The mechanism for distributing Humanitarian Aid and administering civilian life in Gaza, either by means of an international mechanism or some other mechanism.
- The timetable and conditions to allow the residents of the Gaza periphery and the northern communities to return to their communities.
- A deadline for the diplomatic efforts to reach an arrangement for the northern border which pushes Hezbollah and its elite Radwan force away from the border.
Some of the above issues have not been discussed at all whereas others have only been discussed superficially. At all events, no decisions have been made on any of them.
Gantz and his political ally Eisenkot also endorsed the warnings that were issued by IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Halevi and Defense Minister Gallant, who said that the achievements that have been made in the war would be eroded unless complementary political decisions were made.
The US continues to try and exert pressure on Israel to strengthen the Palestinian Authority (PA). Officials recently told Israel that they expect to see the transfer of funds owed to the PA, as well as the entry of Palestinian labourers into Israel. Strong opposition exists within some elements of the cabinet to both of these steps (for more details on the debate over Palestinian labourers see Tuesday’s BICOM brief).
The fact that rockets have emanated from areas the IDF has recently left has led to debate about whether it needs to return (see Israeli Media Summary below).
Hochstein’s alleged suggestion that Hezbollah move north, but not beyond the Litani river, is a moderation of the demands of UN Resolution 1701, with which Hezbollah has continually refused to comply, and which calls for their withdrawal north of the river.
Hochstein’s mediation is part of wider US efforts to dampen tensions between Israel and Hezbollah on the norther border and prevent an escalation Washington fears could spread to a regional war.

January 16, 2024

Elderly Israeli woman killed in Raanana terror attack

Raanana attacks: Edna Bluestein, a 79-year-old Israeli woman, was killed, and 18 more people wounded in Raanana yesterday, in attacks by two Palestinian cousins from the Hebron area.

Seven children remain hospitalised with their injuries. Five of the injured are in serious condition and two – a 60-year-old and a 16-year-old boy – in critical condition.
First, Mahmoud Zidat, 44, and in Israel illegally, arrived in a stolen vehicle at the industrial area on Raanana’s Haroshet Street. He stabbed a woman, wounding her slightly, before stealing her vehicle and embarking out on a rampage, running down two pedestrians. When the vehicle became stuck, he first attempted to commandeer another vehicle, before setting out on foot, stabbing another individual.
Minutes later, on Ahuza Street, a few kilometers away, Zidat’s cousin Ahmad Zidat, 24, carried out a ramming attack at a bus stop, during which Bluestein was killed and 14 others injured. All of the wounded from both attacks were taken to Meir, Beilinson, Ichilov and Schneider hospitals.
Both terrorists were captured and handed to the Shin Bet for questioning. According to the Shin Bet, both terrorists had been blacklisted for entering Israel illegally numerous times in the past.
The Khalil a-Rahman group from Hebron, affiliated with Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, assumed responsibility for the terror attack.

Hostage video: Hamas yesterday released a propaganda video of the hostage Noa Argamani, claiming, under duress, that two other hostages Yossi Sharabi and Itay Svirsky were killed as a result of Israeli strikes.

A day earlier, Hamas had released a video of all three hostages pleading for their release. It is not clear when either of the videos were recorded. The first video ended with a taunting text, “Tomorrow we will inform you of their fate.”
In response to the recording, IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari denied Hamas’s allegation that Itai Svirsky had been killed by IDF fire. Hagari described that allegation as a lie.
Hagari added, “We did not know their exact location in real-time. We do not strike where we know there are hostages. In retrospect, we know that we attacked targets close to the location where they were held.”
The IDF Spokesperson’s office added, “Hamas is weaponizing social media as an instrument of war. Hamas wages psychological warfare to terrorise and torment. This is a new benchmark in barbarism set by Hamas.”
Itay Svirsky, 38, was kidnapped while he was visiting his mother on Kibbutz Be’eri. Both his parents, Orit and Rafi Svirsky, were murdered. His 96-year-old grandmother Aviva Sela managed to survive.
Yossi Sharabi, 53, was also taken from Kibbutz Be’eri, along with his brother, Eli Sharabi. Eli’s wife, Lianne and their two daughters, Noiya and Yahel, were killed on October 7.
Noa Argamani, 26, was abducted from the Supernova music festival. She was seen on video on the morning of October 7, being taken away on the back of a motorbike.

Gaza Strip: The IDF have continued to reduce their presence in northern Gaza Strip, as part of their gradual redeployment into phase three of the war.

There remains one IDF division, including seven brigades operating in southern Gaza in the Khan Yunis area.
Another IDF solider was killed in action yesterday, and two others seriously wounded, reflecting the continued fighting in southern Gaza. Since the beginning of the ground operation, 189 soldiers have fallen.
In Nuseirat, in central Gaza, the IDF announced they “located a compound used for manufacturing mortar shells, a rocket production factory and weapons hidden in the building of a humanitarian organisation.” In addition, forces “encountered 10 Hamas terrorists hiding in the school. The terrorists were apprehended and detained for further investigation.”
Additional troops remain deployed along the route that bisects the Strip into north and south.
In the northern Gaza section smaller forces remain focused on pin-point raids against remaining terror targets. For example, yesterday in the area of Beit Lahia, IDF troops located approximately 100 rocket set-installations and 60 ready-to-use rockets. The troops killed dozens of terrorists during the activity.
Despite the IDF presence, this morning a barrage of 50 rockets were fired towards southern Israel. There were direct hits reported in Netivot and Moshav Givolim.

Context: Prior to the October 7 attacks, around 150,000 Palestinians from the West Bank held permits to work inside Israel or in Jewish settlements in the West Bank. In addition, 18,000 Gazans also held work permits.

Despite the fact that both terrorists were in Israel illegally, Defence Secretary Gallant faces political criticism for his plan to increase permits for West Bank Palestinian workers to work in Israel.
Work permits were cancelled by the government in the wake of October 7, and the tax revenues collected by Israel on behalf of the Palestinian Authority (PA) withheld.
Gallant has supported the Shin Bet and IDF leadership in pushing for the work permit policy to be reversed, in a bid to calm heightened tensions in the West Bank, and to ease the burden on the Israeli construction industry, which is currently short on manpower.
On Sunday, Gallant said that he “hope[d] that the government will accept the position of the IDF and the Shin Bet on everything that is connected to labourers and money. I will say this in the clearest way possible: A strong PA is in the best security interests of Israel.”
Over the weekend, Israeli media reported that the Shin Bet had written to Prime Minister Netanyahu urging him to allow the return of West Bank workers to Israel and the distribution of the funds to the PA.
The Israeli government faces a dilemma: on one hand it understands that Palestinian workers represent economic stability for the West Bank, bringing in crucial revenue, both for themselves and their families, and in tax revenues for the PA. Greater economic stability is thought to have security benefits, too, with those able to provide for their families generally less susceptible to Hamas’s and other groups’ incitement and recruitment. Palestinian labour is also important to the Israeli economy, especially the construction industry.
However, after October 7, allowing tens of thousands of Palestinians to enter Israel is regarded as a security risk, even though Palestinians with permits very rarely carry out attacks. Reports that Hamas was aided in its intelligence in planning October 7 by Gazans working in Israel only exacerbates these fears.
One of the terrorists had worked at a carwash on Haroshet Street. Detectives are now trying to determine whether the terrorists stole the vehicles they used from the carwash.
The IDF’s assessment is that several hundred Palestinians are currently in Israel illegally working for Israelis.
Since October 7, Israeli forces have arrested more than 2,650 wanted Palestinians across the West Bank, including more than 1,300 affiliated with Hamas. According to the Palestinian Authority health ministry, some 300 West Bank Palestinians have been killed in that time, the majority thought to have died in clashes with Israeli troops.
Security Cabinet minister and New Hope Party Chairman Gideon Saar said, “the painful terror attack in Raanana is further proof of the fact that it is impossible to distinguish, certainly in a time of war, when allowing labourers into Israel, between Palestinians from Gaza and Palestinians from Judea and Samaria. Age is no guarantee of anything, either. We must fight relentlessly against the entry of Palestinians: by means of prevention and severe punishment of people who drive, host and hire [them].”
Yisrael Beiteinu Chairman Avigdor Liberman said, “regrettably, the only uniting thing in this war cabinet is that same mistaken preconception that visited the October 7 disaster upon us. I can’t understand the defence minister, who is talking about how we need to strengthen the PA. Whom exactly do we want to strengthen? Abu Mazen [Mahmoud Abbas], the chronic Holocaust-denier who has refused to condemn the October 7 massacre? The person who is behind South Africa’s case and is inciting against the State of Israel—that’s who we want to strengthen?”

Looking ahead: Following the terror attacks, Israeli forces will be vigilant over the prospect of copycat attacks.

It is understood that as part of the ongoing talks between senior Israeli and US officials, the US is keen to further empower the PA, including by encouraging Israel to release the tax funds and renew permits for Palestinian workers.
The security establishment have been exploring a pilot programme to allow a limited return of West Bank Palestinian workers into Israel, with enhanced security provisions.

January 15, 2024

Two Israeli civilians killed in the north, as Israel marked 100 days since October 7th

Northern border: Attacks have continued from Lebanon towards northern Israel.

Several anti-tank missiles were launched toward the areas of Zar’it, Shomera, and Kfar Yuval.
In Kfar Yuval, the missile hit a house, killing 76-year-old Mira Ayalon and her son, 45-year-old Barak. The father, Eliyahu was also injured.
The missiles are believed to have been fired from Adeisa, a Lebanese village that is six kilometers east of Kfar Yuval.
Rockets were also fired toward the communities of Misgav Am and Goren that mostly landed in open areas.
Earlier on Sunday there was an attempted infiltration in the Mount Dov area (where there is no fence). Three combatants were killed in the ensuing exchanges of fire. Kalashnikov rifles, magazines, hand grenades and anti-tank missiles were found in their possession. Three IDF soldiers were wounded in the incident.
In response to these attacks, the IDF struck Hezbollah targets, deep into Lebanon, as far as Jabal Safi, which is 35 kilometres from the Israeli border.

Tel Aviv: Over the weekend families of the hostages and their supporters held a 24-hour rally to mark 100 days in captivity.

President Herzog spoke in English with a message to the world. “From Hostage Square in Tel Aviv, a symbol of solidarity and humanity,” he said, “I call upon the entire family of nations to do your part. This isn’t just about our battle, it is a battle for the entire world. Stand with life and liberty against barbarism and hate. Stand with freedom and democracy, stand with our hostages, and help bring them back home. There is no ‘later’. The time to act is now.”
Shelly, the mother of Omer Shem Tov who is being held captive, said, “my husband and I were raised on mutual responsibility and that is how we raised our kids too. We raised them that we don’t leave anyone behind. Onehundred days in which I haven’t had air to breathe and Omer, who is in captivity without his ventilator, really doesn’t have air to breathe. One hundred days in which I’ve gone into Omer’s room and I’ve told him to be strong and have prayed. I’m asking Omer to wait a bit more, another drop. We’ll get you home.”
Simon Walters, the British Ambassador, delivered a personal message of support from Foreign Secretary Cameron.
The US Ambassador was also among the speakers, as well as a prerecorded speech by French President Emmanuel Macron.

Context: The IDF’s assessment is that Hezbollah has escalated its attacks in response to the death of senior Hezbollah commanders killed last week, including the commander of their Radwan commando unit, whose remit includes planning infiltration attempts, and the commander of their drone operations in southern Lebanon.

The infiltration attempt in Mount Dov was claimed by a Palestinian terror group in Lebanon, in response to the recent killing of Hamas leaders Salah al-Arouri and Samir Fendi in Beirut.
Overall, according to the IDF, around 2,000 rockets, mortars, anti-tank missiles and UAVs have been fired from Lebanon into Israel over the past 100 days.
Another 30 have been fired from Syria.
The IDF has struck around 750 targets and has killed around 170 military combatants.
In the south, the IDF maintain that the military campaign to dismantle Hamas’s military infrastructure is the best method to secure the return the hostages.
However, there appear to be disagreements within the war cabinet. Minister Gantz and Eisenkot support the statements made by the hostages’ families, that everything must be done in order to reach a deal.
Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant have argued that only military pressure would be able to bring about a deal to free the hostages.
Despite withdrawing troops from northern Gaza, four divisions continue to operate inside Gaza. According to IDF Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, “the forces are advancing in the field according to plan, and adapting their operational methods to the tasks, the terrain, and the enemy.”
“We have moved the focus of our efforts to the centre and south of the Strip, where we exposed, including today, weapons manufacturing facilities above and below ground, including missiles intended for the Israeli home front, a real military industry. Destroying these is very important to prevent future strengthening, and it is important to understand, without manoeuvring in the field, it would not have been possible to do this. The forces are thoroughly and methodically dismantling infrastructure, and at the same time, the forces continue to eliminate terrorists from the air, sea, and in brave face-to-face combat on the ground in a very complex area.”
The IDF also announced that it has destroyed 700 rocket launchers since the operation begun, as well as seizing and destroying hundreds of rockets.
Nevertheless, Hamas is still able to launch rockets, including six M75 rockets launched yesterday towards Ashdod. One was intercepted, whilst the other five landed in open areas.
Marking 100 days since the October 7 massacre, the IDF released a range of statistics:
- In Gaza, of the 23,000 fatalities, over 9,000 are combatants from Hamas and other terror organisations.
- In terms of the Hamas military leadership, two of their five brigade commanders have been killed, as well as 19 Hamas battalion commanders and over 50 company commanders. These killings disrupt Hamas’s command and control.
- In addition, around 2,300 suspected combatants have been arrested.
The IDF also revealed the extend of Humanitarian Aid that has entered into Gaza Strip. This includes around 137,920 tons of aid:
- 3,950 trucks, carrying 82,330 tons of food.
- 1,151 trucks carrying 16,630 tons of tents and shelter equipment.
- 1,007 trucks carrying 11,510 tons of medical equipment.
- 863 trucks carrying 17,320 tons of water as well two pipelines delivering water from Israel into Gaza.

Looking ahead: The fate of the hostages held in Gaza looms large over Israeli society.

In particular, the remaining female hostages who, according to testimony from released hostages, have suffered sexual assaults and some of whom may have become pregnant as a result of being raped in captivity.
Israeli law allows a standard medical committee to authorise an abortion up to the 24th week of pregnancy. Beyond this, a special committee of senior doctors can authorise an abortion. In the hope that hostages will be released, a special committee will been formed to deal with this scenario.
Separately, on Sunday Hamas released their latest propaganda video showing three hostages: Noa Argamani, 26, Yossi Sharabi, 53, and Itay Svirsky, 38, identifying themselves and asking the Israeli government to bring them home. The short clip ended with the text: “Tomorrow we will inform you of their fate.

January 12, 2024

UK backs Israel in the Hague

What’s happening: South Africa presented their case to the International Court of Justice on Thursday, accusing Israel of committing genocide against the Palestinians in Gaza.

Their claim appeared to be based partly on bellicose rhetoric, including from extremist, peripheral members of the Israeli government that the South African lawyers argued are key figures in determining Israeli policy.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s spokesman condemned South Africa’s initiative as “completely unjustified and wrong….legal action does not serve the cause of peace. The UK government stands by Israel’s clear right to defend itself within the framework of international law.”
Similarly, the US has said there were no grounds to accuse Israel of committing genocide in Gaza. US State Department spokesman Matt Miller said that “allegations that Israel is committing genocide are unfounded. In fact, it is those who are violently attacking Israel who continue to openly call for the annihilation of Israel and the mass murder of Jews… Genocide is one of the most heinous acts any entity or individual can commit, and such allegations should only be made with the greatest of care. Israel has the right to defend itself against Hamas’ terrorist acts — acts that Hamas has vowed to repeat again and again until Israel is completely destroyed. Israel is operating in an exceptionally challenging environment in Gaza, an urban battlespace where Hamas intentionally embeds itself with and hides behind civilians.”
This morning Israel will make the case for the defence.
- They will explain that Israel is a fighting a defensive war, after Hamas initiated their brutal massacre on October 7.
- Since then Israel has conducted their military campaign in line with international law.
- IDF’s air strikes in the Gaza Strip are based on accurate intelligence information targeting legitimate military targets.
- Israel operates a policy of distinction and avoids harming Gazan civilians as much as possible.
- As part of the campaign, Israel made significant efforts to encourage civilians to leave the war zone, so as not to be caught in the fighting.
- The defence will also emphasise that Israel allows supplies of water, food, and medicine into the Gaza Strip based on the capacity of the border crossings.
Israel’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lior Haiat described the hearing as “one of the greatest shows of hypocrisy in history, compounded by a series of false and baseless claims.”

Context: The charge of genocide is offensive and inaccurate. Israel perceives this as a political trial with South Africa serving as a proxy for Hamas.

In a bitter irony, it was Hamas who acted with clear intent to commit genocide on October 7, had they not been stopped by the IDF.
Inside Gaza, they continue to use their civilian population as human shields and operate military infrastructure from within hospitals, schools, UN shelters, mosques and churches.
Almost 100 days since the war began, 136 hostages remain in Hamas captivity, denied access to Red Cross representatives and medical care.
According to Hamas, over 23,000 Palestinians have been killed. Whilst Israel regrets innocent deaths, the death toll alone as part of an intense and complex war does not equate to genocide. Furthermore, Israel’s current assessment is that out of these fatalities at least 8,000 were combatants.
The ICJ was set up after the Holocaust. Genocide is defined in Article II of the Genocide Convention of 1948 as committing various acts with intent to destroy a national, ethnic, racial or religious group, in whole or in part. The Israeli government has repeatedly stated that its objective is to destroy Hamas.
The ICJ is the United Nation’s highest court, its rulings are theoretically legally binding, but not enforceable.
Unlike the International Criminal Court (ICC), the ICJ cannot prosecute individuals for genocide, but its opinions could influence foreign governments policy and international institutions.
The panel of judges selected by the UN General Assembly includes judges from France, Germany, Australia, India, Slovakia, Jamaica, Japan, Brazil, Russia, China, Morocco, Somalia, Lebanon and Uganda.
As part of the protocol, both South Africa and Israel also have a representative on the panel of judges. Israel sent former Supreme Court president Aharon Barak.
Barak, a child survivor of the Holocaust, escaped the Kovno ghetto in a sack of hay, before becoming a world renowned jurist. In Israel there is hope that his influence among the other judges during the consultation process will limit the damage.
Jeremy Corbyn, the former leader of the Labour party was in the Hague yesterday, supporting the South African and Palestinian case.
Although the South African claims appear unfounded, Israel faces internal criticism over the government’s message discipline, with the prime minister accused of not having reigned in extremist ministers and for failure to articulate a diplomatic vision for Gaza.

Looking ahead: In the first instance South Africa is appealing for the court to issues an injunction demanding the end of the war.

The court could declare a whole range of options:
- It could absolve Israel of guilt.
- It could also side with South Africa and issue an immediate call to end the war.
- It could also include recommendation for range of actions.
- A call to expand Humanitarian Aid, (Israel already appears open to this).
- Insisting Gazans should be allowed return to their homes in north Gaza. Israel has so far conditioned their return on the release of hostages.
- Support for more international organisations to enter Gaza

January 11, 2024

ICJ hears first arguments in “genocide” case, as war cabinet discusses new hostage proposal

ICJ: The International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague will today hear arguments alleging that Israel has violated the Genocide Convention, to which it is a signatory.

The hearings are a result of an urgent appeal, lodged by South Africa, designed to have the court force Israel to “immediately suspend” its military operations in Gaza.
The hearings will focus on the request to issue a provisional order against Israel, while Israel’s arguments will be heard tomorrow.
South Africa’s application alleges that Israel has violated several articles of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide during the war, including committing genocide, incitement to genocide, attempted genocide, and failure to punish incitement to genocide.
The president of the court is Judge Joan Donoghue from the United States. Other judges are from France, Germany, Australia, India, Slovakia, Jamaica, Japan, Brazil, Russia, China, Morocco, Somalia, Lebanon and Uganda.
Both South Africa and Israel have sent judges who were nominated as ad hoc members of the panel. Israel’s judge will be former Supreme Court president Aharon Barak. Israel’s principle legal representative in the court will be British attorney Malcom Shaw.
Isaac Herzog yesterday dismissed the case as “atrocious” and “preposterous.” Visiting US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in Tel Aviv on Tuesday that the charge of genocide brought by South Africa in the ICJ is “meritless,” and called it “particularly galling” because “Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and their supporter Iran continue to openly call for the annihilation of Israel and the mass murder of Jews.”
US State Department spokesman Matt Miller also said in a statement that “allegations that Israel is committing genocide are unfounded. In fact, it is those who are violently attacking Israel who continue to openly call for the annihilation of Israel and the mass murder of Jews… Genocide is one of the most heinous acts any entity or individual can commit, and such allegations should only be made with the greatest of care. Israel has the right to defend itself against Hamas’ terrorist acts — acts that Hamas has vowed to repeat again and again until Israel is completely destroyed. Israel is operating in an exceptionally challenging environment in Gaza, an urban battlespace where Hamas intentionally embeds itself with and hides behind civilians.”

Hostages: After a delegation of the hostages’ families returned from Qatar, a new Qatari proposal for a deal was put to Israel which the war cabinet discussed.

Mossad Director David Barnea, who recently spoke with the Qatari prime minister, shared that information with the security cabinet. The deal reportedly calls for the release of all the hostages in a number of stages, in exchange for the IDF’s complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and the exile of the Hamas leaders.
Israeli officials told Kan Radio that it was their understanding that the Qatari proposal, had not been coordinated with the Hamas leadership.
Hamas leader Ismail Haniya in Qatar said that Israel will never get its hostages back unless it releases all the prisoners who are in jail, which also appears to be Yahya Sinwar’s position.
President Joe Biden sent his envoy Brett McGurk, who played a major role in reaching the last hostage deal, to Qatar.
Minister Benny Gantz said yesterday: “The most urgent thing is the hostages’ return. That has priority over any course of action in the fighting. If there are any hostages who are watching us now, it is important that you know—we are doing everything for you to return to your loved ones, who have never stopped fighting for you. There is no channel that they are not working on, there is no path that they haven’t trod for this to happen. Be strong.”
IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said the army had located a tunnel in Khan Yunis in which hostages had been held. “The troops located a tunnel in which hostages were held in harsh difficult conditions below ground. We brought international correspondents into them today for them to reveal to the world the crimes that Hamas commits against humanity. The hostages are the supreme effort. In the past too, there were quite a few operations that we did not report [to rescue them]. There were also operations that we stopped.”

Jerusalem/West Bank: The police and Shin Bet announced that they had arrested two individuals suspected of belonging to ISIS and of planning to carry out an attack against security forces. The two were allegedly planning to make explosive devices, inspired by videos published by the Islamic State which they watched online. The suspects, aged 21 and 23, are residents of Jabel Mukaber in East Jerusalem. The police said they found paedophilia material on one of the individual’s mobile phones, initiating an investigation into the matter.Context: The South African case rests on the large number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza, its allegations that food, water, and medical care available to the Gazan population has been restricted, and statements by Israeli government ministers about Palestinians in Gaza it alleges amount to incitement to genocide.

Israeli Justice Ministry officials believe there is a real chance the ICJ will agree to South Africa’s demands and will issue some kind of injunction against Israel.
At the same time, it is not expected to call for a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip,
The court can also instruct Israel to allow Humanitarian Aid in the Strip, to establish an independent inquiry, or to allow displaced Palestinians to return to northern Gaza.
Such provisional instructions do not rely on the court concluding that the case brought has been proven, only that it is plausible. The bar to establish plausibility of genocidal actions is much lower than a final definitive determination.
Prime Minister Netanyahu, meanwhile, made it clear yesterday that “Israel has no intention of permanently occupying Gaza or displacing its civilian population. Israel is fighting Hamas terrorists, not the Palestinian population. And we’re doing so in full compliance with international law.”
Senior Israeli officials reiterated yesterday that any proposal to free the hostages that includes a demand to end the war and to withdraw IDF troops as a precondition for negotiations is unacceptable and would not be given positive consideration. Yahya Sinwar does also not appear to be prepared to go into exile.
The mediators hold their talks with Hamas’s political leadership, which is not based in the Gaza Strip. That leadership is headed by Ismail Haniya, who lives in Qatar. The degree of influence he has over Sinwar is uncertain.
Hamas’s overseas leadership did not formally respond to the idea of exiling Hamas’s [Gaza] leadership, but did say that Yahya Sinwar and his brother Muhammad and Mohammed Deif and Marwan Issa would “scornfully dismiss the idea of leaving the Gaza Strip.”
The United States has been exerting massive pressure on Qatar to advance a deal: one channel with Qatar is being run by CIA Director William Burns, whereas Biden personally dispatched his envoy Bret McGurk. An Israeli delegation is also scheduled to leave for Cairo in the next few days to continue the talks.
Hamas had previously rejected similar proposals and had insisted that any release of Israeli hostages must be met with the release of Palestinian prisoners.

Looking ahead: Initial ICJ rulings are expected in the next few weeks with a final ruling likely to take years.

Israel is due to approve in the next few days the entry of 400 trucks carrying Humanitarian Aid into Gaza every day, instead of the 200 that enter today. Reports suggest that a promise was made to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in meetings in Israel yesterday that this number would increase further.
Amos Hochstein will meet with officials in Beirut later “in an effort to advance discussions to restore calm” along the border between Lebanon and Israel. A US National Security Council spokesperson said: “The United States has made clear it does not support the ongoing conflict spreading into Lebanon and continues to exhaust all diplomatic options to see Israeli and Lebanese civilians return to their homes and live in security and stability.”

January 10, 2024

Escalation on the northern border

What’s happened: Both Israel and Hezbollah have stepped up their attacks and counter-strikes in southern Lebanon and northern Israel.

On Monday, Israel carried out a targeted assassination of the commander of Hezbollah’s elite commando Radwan Force, Wissam al-Tawil.
On Tuesday Hezbollah retaliated with extensive attacks across northern Israel using missiles, rockets, and UAVs.
As a result, air raid sirens sounded in 26 northern communities.
One of Hezbollah’s attacks targeted the IDF’s Northern Command’s main headquarters in Safed. Whilst some were shot down, two UAVs evaded interception and exploded in the base causing no injuries and only minimal damage. According to Hezbollah, this attack was in revenge for the killings of al-Tawil and Hamas commander al-Arouri.
In response, the IDF struck and killed the squad that launched the UAV.
In addition, the IDF also targeted and killed Ali Hussein Burji, who served as the Hezbollah commander of their aerial unit in southern Lebanon and was responsible for the UAVs targeting the northern command. Lebanese sources claimed he was killed by a missile striking his vehicle close to the site of al-Tawil’s funeral.
This morning, the IDF renewed their strikes in southern Lebanon.

Context: Since the war began, 14 Israelis have been killed in northern Israel, whilst 158 Hezbollah operatives have been killed by the IDF.

In total, Hezbollah has carried out over 600 attacks. The damage would have been far higher on the Israeli side, if not for 42 communities that been evacuated, which includes 60,000 Israelis. In addition, over 20,000 have voluntarily left their homes in the north.
Although the evacuations have saved lives, it poses a complex set of dilemmas as to when they will feel safe to return home.
Hezbollah has demonstrated an array of methods to attack, including anti-tank missiles with a high degree of accuracy, and sophisticated UAVs. There is also concern that these UAVs could in the future be deployed en masse, with a swarming effect that could overwhelm Israeli defences.
The attack on the northern command HQ was Hezbollah’s second attempt to strike a strategic site in the north, following the attack on the Mount Meron air control base.
It appears the IDF has changed its approach and is now focusing on targeted killing operations against senior Hezbollah commanders.
Israel’s objective remains to remove the elite Radwan Force commandos from close proximity to the border area, but without crossing the threshold that would start a full-scale war. The IDF is managing the northern arena, whilst the campaign in Gaza remains the main focus.
Hezbollah’s agenda is complicated: on one hand it creates the linkage within the Iranian backed axis and the war in Gaza (they began their assault on October 8^th. When there was a temporary ceasefire, during the release of hostages Hezbollah also held fire, even though not part of the agreement). On the other hand, Hezbollah leader Nasrallah has stated that his calculations are independent of Hamas and based on pre-existing claims against Israel.
The Iranian agenda supports Hezbollah’s continued attacks against Israel, to keep it in a perpetual state of conflict but below the threshold of all out war. The assumption remains that Iran seeks to keep Hezbollah’s most lethal capacity as an insurance policy against any future attack against the Iranian regime.
Israel strives to restore its deterrence, based on strikes against Hezbollah and the damage inflicted in Gaza, to create pressure inside Lebanon to restrain Hezbollah.
In the last three months, the IDF has claimed a series of achievements in the north:
- They have displayed an impressive intelligence and operational capability to target cells and individual commanders.
- To a degree, some of the Radwan Force has been pushed away from the border fence, though not as far north as the Litani River.
- There has been extensive damage to Hezbollah’s infrastructure and command posts.
- All this whilst keeping civilian casualties to a minimum.
Both sides appear to be reliant on their advanced UAV capabilities, both for attacks and intelligence gathering.
US Secretary of State Blinken related to the challenges in northern Israel, saying yesterday, “the United States stands with Israel in ensuring its northern border is secure. We’re fully committed to working with Israel to find a diplomatic solution that avoids escalation and allows families to return to their homes, to live securely in northern Israel and also in southern Lebanon.”

Looking ahead: The calculations for both sides to keep this conflict relatively contained remain precarious.

There is still hope that the US’s diplomatic efforts to end the fighting in the north will prevail.
Hezbollah still has a significant stock of precision guided missiles, along with an array of long range missiles with large warheads, that could inflict heavy damage on Israel’s home front, far from the northern border.
Any subsequent ground operation could also be on a substantially larger scale than that seen in Gaza.

January 9, 2024

Successful strikes in the north, as Israel suffers more loses in Gaza

The north: Hezbollah has confirmed that the commander of its Radwan force was killed yesterday morning in a strike attributed to Israel.

Wissam al-Tawil’s (also known as Jawad) car was attacked in the village of Khirbet Selm, about 15 kilometres from the Israeli border in southern Lebanon.
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said that Israel “took responsibility for the operation, it is part of our war,” while Hezbollah said that al-Tawil had died a “martyr on the path to Jerusalem”.
Al-Tawil was responsible for the for the ambush in 2000 in which the soldiers Adi Avitan, Benny Avraham and Omar Suwayed were killed and kidnapped, and for the 2006 kidnapping and killing of Israeli soldiers Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser, a precipitating factor in the start of the Second Lebanon War. He was also behind last year’s explosive attack near Megiddo in northern Israel, and planned an invasion of northern border communities.
The IAF also attacked a military compound, infrastructure and rocket launchers in the northern Lebanese villages of Marwahin and Aita-al Shaab last night.
Tawil’s killing takes the number of Hezbollah fighters killed since October 7^th to at least 151, while reports this morning suggest that three Hezbollah members have been killed in a targeted strike on their vehicle in the town of Ghandouriyeh.
Israel announced yesterday that it had also killed Hassan Hakashah, the central figure behind Hamas rocket attacks from Syria in a strike on Beit Jinn.
“We will not allow terrorism from Syrian territory and hold Syria responsible for all activity emanating from its territory,” the military said.
Air raid sirens sounded this morning across northern Israel, and rockets were fired into the Ramat Naftali area. Safed residents have been told to remain in safe rooms after an Israeli interceptor was fired at a suspicious target that apparently infiltrated from Lebanon.

Gaza Strip: This morning it was announced that four more IDF soldiers were killed in action yesterday in the Gaza Strip, taking the total to 180 since the start of the ground campaign. In addition, six more soldiers were hospitalised in serious condition.

In southern Gaza, the IDF is expanding its operations inside Khan Yunis. According to the IDF Spokesperson’s office over the last day, “approximately 40 terrorists were killed. In addition, significant terror tunnel shafts were located, as well as a variety of weapons, including twelve AK-47 rifles, four loaded RPG launchers, dozens of grenades, cartridges, and military vests.”
Also in Khan Yunis the IDF exposed another tunnel shaft near a school and found evidence of students training with weapons. They also found, “explosives, weapons, grenades, communications devices and large quantities of intelligence documents.”
The IDF added, that during the operations, “several RPG missiles were shot at the forces. The forces engaged in close-quarters combat and eliminated the terrorist cell that carried out the shooting with both tank fire and airstrikes.”
In central Gaza yesterday troops uncovered, “the largest weapons production site found since the beginning of the war.” According to the IDF, they found:
- Components for long-range rockets capable of reaching northern Israel.
- Underground long-range rockets manufacturing facilities.
- Explosives and mortar shells accuracy enhancers.
- Tunnel shafts reaching approximately 30 metres underground.
- Light weapons and UAVs.
Despite IDF advances, Hamas continue to fire rockets out of Gaza into Israel. 14 rockets were fired towards southern Israel early Monday evening. In total Hamas and other terror organisations have launched over 13,000 rockets and mortars since the war began.

Context: Al-Tawil is thought to have been a close associate of Qasem Soleimani, the former commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force killed in a US strike in early 2020.

Al-Tawil’s death comes as Hezbollah has intensified attacks on northern Israel in the wake of last week’s assassination of Hamas official Saleh al-Aruri in Beirut.
Hezbollah fired more than 60 rockets at the Mount Meron base as an initial response to the killing, causing significant damage to a sensitive strategic air traffic control base.
Prime Minister Netanyahu met yesterday with soldiers on the northern border, pledging to do anything to “restore security to the north and to let Hezbollah “know that we cannot be messed with.”
“Hezbollah made a big mistake with us in 2006 and is making a big mistake with us now. They thought we were cobwebs, and suddenly they see we are a spider… We showed the organisation what’s happening to its friends in the south, and that’s what’s going to happen here in the north. We will do everything we can to restore security.”
Merom Galil Regional Council Chairperson Amit Sofer warned Kan Radio this morning that Israel was not prepared for an escalation in fighting in the northern theatre. “Precious time is being wasted [that could be used] to prepare for the major scenario of missile fire,” he said. “I think we have use this time to prepare. There are huge fortification gaps [shortfalls] here in the area of shelters. We aren’t talking about some huge project. With a few million, we could save lives.”
The US fears that all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah could trigger a wider regional conflagration, and is determined to see a diplomatic solution which would ensure that Hezbollah personnel and infrastructure are moved sufficiently north of the Litani river to allow for the safe return home of Israel’s evacuated northern residents.
Both Secretary of State Blinken and Amos Hockstein, the diplomat who brokered the 2022 maritime deal between Israel and Lebanon are working to this effect. The French have also been involved in trying to prevail on the Lebanese government to act to move Hezbollah north beyond the Litani.
Israeli officials are increasingly pessimistic about the chances of success of these diplomatic moves, and fear that only a military solution can restore security to the northern envelope.
The conventional wisdom was that Hezbollah, too, wished to avoid all-out war, and that its Iranian patron was holding the organisation’s extensive 150,000 missile and rockets arsenal back for use should Israel mount an attack on Tehran’s nuclear programme.
US Secretary of State Blinken arrived in Israel last night, for his fifth visit since the war began.
For the US benefit and in an effort to maintain international legitimacy, Israel declared that it was transitioning to the third stage of its war in the Gaza Strip.
The third stage currently seems to apply to the northern part of the Gaza, where the IDF is reducing its heavy concentration of troops. This next stage is expected to feature pinpoint raids and strikes on Hamas targets that would be carried out from Israeli territory.
There is criticism in Israel that the announcement of the transition to the third phase appeared first in English, in the US media and not to the Israeli public.
Secretary Blinken is expected to press Israel to allow Gazans from the north to return to their homes, however Israel is looking to condition their return for progress in the release of the remaining hostages.
These events are being interpreted in Israel as the coming to fruition of the conflicting timetable which have been identified for some time: between Israeli military estimates of a total defeat of Hamas which might be very bloody and take many months, and of US expectations for a much swifter end to intense fighting in Gaza.
The IDF remains convinced that strong military pressure on the southern Gazan city of Khan Yunis remains crucial to the release of more Israeli hostages held by Hamas.

Looking ahead: The IDF has still not conducted any ground operations along the Egyptian border. The vast amount of weapons that Hamas has attests to the scale of the ability to smuggle in weapons though this route and makes it a key issue to end the war and ensure Hamas cannot rearm.

Families of the hostages are planning to protest at Kerem Shalom, the entry point of Humanitarian Aid into Gaza.
In parallel, Arabic media sources are reporting an Israeli delegation is in Cairo for indirect talks to renew negotiations for the release of hostages.

LATEST

Key background

Government faces pressure as Gaza operation continues

Latest US strike against Houthis

Medical aid enters Gaza

IDF destroys key strategic tunnel

Elderly Israeli woman killed in Raanana terror attack

Two Israeli civilians killed in the north, as Israel marked 100 days since October 7th

UK backs Israel in the Hague

ICJ hears first arguments in “genocide” case, as war cabinet discusses new hostage proposal

Escalation on the northern border

Successful strikes in the north, as Israel suffers more loses in Gaza

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