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Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Key background
  • Hamas is an Islamist Palestinian nationalist movement which currently governs the Gaza Strip. It is proscribed by the UK and in the majority of western countries.
  • Its primary state backers are Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. It is also active in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon.
  • Since seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has continuously launched attacks against Israel and weaponised civilian infrastructure by embedding itself into schools, mosques, and hospitals.
  • Hamas’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel killed 1200, and over 250 hostages were subsequently taken to the Gaza Strip.

Updated January 31, 2024

Hamas leaders head to Cairo for talks on hostage deal

Hostage deal: A Hamas delegation is set to meet with Egyptian intelligence head Abbas Kamel in Cairo today, to discuss the contours of a potential hostage deal.

  • The delegation is set to include Hamas’s overseas leader Ismail Haniyeh, with talks likely to feature Hamas’s response to the deal contours reach by Israeli, American, Qatari and Egyptian officials in Paris this week, which would see all remaining hostages released in a three-stage process, in exchange for a truce and the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu responded to speculation over talks yesterday by saying: “I’ve heard statements about all kinds of deals. So I wish to clarify: we will not end this war with anything less than the achievement of all its objectives… We will not withdraw the IDF from the Gaza Strip and we won’t release thousands of terrorists. None of that is going to happen. What is going to happen? Total victory.”
  • Gaza: The IDF has announced that three Israeli soldiers were killed in action in the Gaza Strip yesterday. 30-year-old Netzer Simhi was killed by a rocket-propelled grenade in the northern Strip, and 28-year-old Capt. (res.) Gavriel Shani and 43-year-old Warrant Officer (res.) Yuval Nir in exchanges of fire with terrorists in the southern Strip.
  • Three other soldiers sustained serious injuries in fighting in central and northern Gaza.
  • Israel has also announced that First Sgt. Ran Gvili, a 24-year-old who served with the Israel Police, was killed in action in the battle for Alumim on October 7 and that his body is being held by Hamas in Gaza.
  • The IDF has also confirmed weeks-long speculation that it is engaged in flooding parts of Gaza’s vast network of tunnels.
  • Heavy fighting continued yesterday in both the north and south of the Strip. A large number of terrorists were killed or captured, and the IDF announced that the rocket launchers in Khan Yunis  from which 11 rockets were fired at the greater Tel Aviv area the day before yesterday were destroyed.
  • Amid fallout from last week’s revelations that UNWRA staff members participated in October 7th, an Israeli official has suggested that Israel does not support the immediate suspension of UNWRA activity in the Gaza Strip.
  • “If UNRWA ceases operating on the ground, this could cause a humanitarian catastrophe that would force Israel to halt its fighting against Hamas,” a senior Israeli told The Times of Israel. “This would not be in Israel’s interest and it would not be in the interest of Israel’s allies either.”

The West Bank: Israeli forces conducted a raid in the northern West Bank city of Jenin yesterday morning, killing three suspected members of a Hamas cell in the city’s hospital.

  • Commandos went in undercover in disguise, with the IDF, Shin Bet, and Police saying in a joint statement that the cell headed by Muhammad Jalamneh, 27, had been plotting “a raid attack inspired by the events of October 7.”
  • Jalamneh was killed along with two other cell members, brothers Muhammad and Basel Ghazawi.
  • IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said, “we do not want to turn hospitals into combat zones, but we are even more determined not to allow hospitals in Gaza, Judea and Samaria, Lebanon, above ground and in shafts leading to tunnels below ground, to become a place that is a haven for terrorists.”

The north: Three rockets were fired out of Syrian territory last night into the southern Golan Heights. The IDF retaliated with artillery fire, reported by Syrian opposition sources as being aimed at the Daraa area, near the Jordanian border.

  • Two anti-tank missiles were also fired at Metulla from Lebanon last night, while earlier yesterday, a rocket landed in an open field near Arab al-Aramsha in the western Galilee. No injuries or damage were reported in either incident.
  • A rocket fired from Lebanon at the Yiftah area in the Upper Galilee was also reported this morning, with no injuries or damage reported. The IDF responded with artillery fire.

UK hints at recognition of Palestinian state: UK Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron has said that recognition is a possible step London might take in a bid to make the process towards statehood “irreversible”.

  • Speaking to the Conservative Middle East Council, Cameron echoed the US position in noting that a reformed Palestinian Authority was required to give the Palestinian people “technocratic and good leaders” able to govern Gaza.
  • “Together with that, almost most important of all,” he said, “is to give the Palestinian people a political horizon so that they can see that there is going to be irreversible progress to a two-state solution and crucially the establishment of a Palestinian state.”
  • “We have a responsibility there because we should be starting to set out what a Palestinian state would look like, what it would comprise, how it would work and crucially, looking at the issue, that as that happens, we with allies will look at the issue of recognising a Palestinian state, including at the United Nations. That could be one of the things that helps to make this process irreversible.”

Context: Haniyeh has not visited Egypt in over a month, with his presence interpreted as a signal of the seriousness of the negotiations.

  • Yesterday, he announced that Hamas was not rejecting the Paris proposals outright. The Washington Post has reported that the deal to be discussed would see three Palestinian prisoners, some in jail for violent attacks, released for each hostage.
  • Far-right elements within the Israeli coalition continue to oppose a hostage deal, especially Finance Minister Smotrich and National Security Minister Ben Gvir. Ben Gvir has made public threats to bring down the government rather than allow a deal.
  • Opposing this position are War Cabinet members Gantz and Eisenkot, who joined the government in the wake of October 7th. Opposition head Lapid pledged yesterday to provide Netanyahu with a “safety net for any deal that returns the hostages to their homes.”
  • In confirming the use of tunnel-flooding, the IDF clarified that the tactic was not suitable for all tunnel sections, and that it conducted “professional and comprehensive” assessments in advance, to ensure that groundwater is not contaminated.
  • The US and over a dozen other countries, including the UK, Germany, Italy, France, Australia, Japan, and Canada announced suspension of funding for UNWRA in light of the revelations supplied by Israel over its staffers’ involvement in October 7th.
  • Israel has further claimed that 10 percent of UNWRA’s 12,000-strong Gazan staff have ties to either Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
  • A delegation headed by Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) Maj. Gen. Ghassan Aliyan is in Washington for talks with US officials, with UNWRA featuring heavily. COGAT officials are thought to have told their hosts that alternative organisations needed to be found to act in the Strip instead of UNRWA.
  • Jalamana was seriously wounded a few months ago when a car bomb he was assembling exploded, prompting the Shin Bet to launch a manhunt for him. While injured, he was taken to a safe house, where he began to convalesce. Jalamana and his partners exploited the Israeli security forces’ sensitivity when dealing with humanitarian issues, and used ambulances to shuttle across the West Bank.
  • The UK has traditionally avoided pre-emptive recognition of Palestinian statehood, recognising that such a move surrenders valuable political capital required in encouraging Palestinians to end their intransigence in future negotiations.
  • Statehood has traditionally been understood as the end result of a negotiated agreement, not as a step towards one. Further, there have been fears that such moves risk provoking dangerous and potentially violent disappointment when they fail to shift on-the-ground realities.

Looking ahead: Further speculation is rife in Israel of a purported “secret” plan for a post-Hamas Gaza, involving a demilitarised Palestinian state and Israeli normalisation with Saudi Arabia. (For more details, see Israeli Media Summary below.)

  • In a bid to prevent Hamas from seizing aid intended for the Gazan people, the IDF is considering a plan which would see it, along with international aid organisations, distribute aid directly.

January 29, 2024

Constructive talks over hostages set to continue

Paris summit: Negotiators representing the US, Israel, Qatar, and Egypt held a summit meeting in Paris over the weekend.

  • The process is being led by CIA director Burns, alongside director of Egyptian Intelligence Kamel and the Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani.
  • Israel’s delegation is led by the Mossad director Barnea, the head of the Shin Bet Bar, and Maj. Gen (res.) Nitzan Alon.
  • The Prime Minister’s Office defined the talks as “constructive,” adding, “there are still significant gaps which the sides will continue to discuss at additional mutual meetings to be held this week.”
  • According to Israeli media reports, they discussed two draft proposals, from Egypt and Qatar respectively, and are looking to potentially merge the two plans.
  • Both plans look to release the hostages in stages, in exchange for Palestinians imprisoned for committing attacks.
  • Similarly, both plans call for a pause in the fighting.
  • Hamas is demanding international guarantees that the war will be ended, whereas Israel has refused this option. They are currently only willing to pause the fighting for up to a couple of month.
  • Furthermore, Hamas is calling for a complete withdrawal of all Israeli troops from Gaza and guarantees that Hamas will remain in power in Gaza.
  • Israel is prepared to withdraw a significant number of its troops, but has insisted that it will maintain a military presence inside the Gaza Strip
  • To move the deal forward, the negotiators will need to agree a ratio for the price of each hostage vs each prisoner. In the first deal, the formula was three prisoners per child or female hostage. This time it is understood Hamas is demanding 200-300 prisoners per hostage.

Context : Intense fighting continues, particularly in the southern city of Khan Yunis

  • The Hamas brigades that remain fighting in Khan Yunis have direct affinity with Hamas leaders Sinwar and Deif.
  • Israel estimates that in the last week more than 400 Hamas combatants were killed in western Khan Yunis and the surrounding area.
  • In that time, the IDF have also exposed a large weapons depot containing a significant amount of explosive devices intended for use against tanks and armoured vehicles.
  • This has been one of the most intense theatres of battle. Hamas had prepared in advance by planting explosives and preparing ambushes.
  • The complexity of the combat is compounded due to the anticipated presence of hostages.
  • In the northern Gaza Strip, around 200,000 Gazans remain there, including Hamas figures who are embedded within the civilian population.
  • Israel is facing pressure to allow others from the north to return home. However, it maintains that this is part of the condition in return for the release of hostages.
  • Despite progress above ground, the task of decommissioning the huge tunnels complex is much slower.

UNRWA: The UK along with the US, Australia, Canada and several other European countries announced that they were suspending funding for UNRWA following revelations that some of its employees took part in the October 7 massacre.

  • On Friday, UNRWA announced that it was launching an investigation.
  • On Sunday, the New York Times released more details, claiming 12 Palestinian UNRWA workers took part in the atrocities committed by Hamas on October 7, including a staffer who abducted a woman, a social worker who distributed ammunition, and a third who participated in the massacre in Kibbutz Be’eri where 97 people were murdered.
  • The report was based on Israeli and US intelligence, and included the tracking of their mobile phone locations, as well as intercepted phone conversations where they discussed their involvement in the massacre.
  • In addition three more UNRWA staffers were also members of the Hamas military wing and received instructions in text messages to report to specific locations. One was instructed to bring with him anti-tank missiles stored in his home.
  • It was also revealed that seven of the UNRWA workers were employed as maths and Arabic teachers at UN schools. Three others were a clerk, a social worker and the manager of the school’s storeroom.
  • Israel’s Foreign Minister Katz said, “We have been warning for years: UNRWA perpetuates the refugee issue, obstructs peace, and serves as a civilian arm of Hamas in Gaza.”

Looking ahead: The talks in Paris are set to continue later this week.

  • In parallel, Israel has accepted the US demand to allow a UN delegation to visit the northern Gaza Strip to study the situation there and assess public needs so as to eventually facilitate a return of residents to the area.
  • Israeli officials continue to insist that some form of operation will be needed in the Rafah and southern edge of the Strip to prevent Hamas with the capacity to continue smuggling and rearm. Due to proximity and sensitivity, this will require reaching an understanding with the Egyptians.

January 24, 2024

Four hostages’ families meet with Sunak and Cameron as UK imposes new sanctions on Hamas and PIJ

  • Albag told Israeli media, “we received a warm embrace from the prime minister and from David Cameron, and the understanding and action that they intend to take. Our message is to put pressure on everyone, on our own prime minister to reach a deal willingly and, on the other hand, we asked them to pressure the Qataris.”
  • Separately, the UK government announced that along with the US and Australia they have imposed “coordinated sanctions” on five key Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) figures to target their financial networks.
  • Foreign Secretary Cameron said, “These sanctions send a clear message to Hamas – the UK and our partners are committed to ensuring there is no hiding place for those financing terrorist activities. To reach a sustainable ceasefire in Gaza, Hamas can no longer be in power and able to threaten Israel. By disrupting the financial networks which sustain Hamas’ operation, including from Iran, these sanctions support that crucial aim.”
  • In Gaza, following manoeuvres over the last few weeks across Khan Yunis, the IDF advanced its operations in the western part of the city and completed its encirclement.
  • IDF Spokesperson Hagari described the combat in “very complex terrain, densely populated with many Hamas terrorists concealed in the area, including in sensitive facilities, trying to surprise our forces.”
  • He confirmed that over recent days the IDF “destroyed a tunnel network spanning a kilometre and a half as well as a rocket production facility. We eliminated over 100 terrorists in western Khan Yunis in the last day.”
  • The underground rocket manufacturing site was the largest one found in southern Gaza.

Context: In December 2023, alongside new sanctions on Iran, the UK imposed sanctions on seven Hamas-linked individuals – “key figures in the network that has financed Hamas, including individuals in Lebanon and Algeria. These stringent measures,” the government said, “show that individuals linked to Hamas will not be able to escape accountability, even if they are operating from outside of Gaza.”

  • The disaster on Monday where 21 IDF reservists were killed occurred as part of the operation to create a one-kilometre-deep “buffer zone” along the length of the Gaza Strip.
  • The attack took place just 600 metres inside the Strip, adjacent to Kibbutz Kissufim, one of the areas from which the terrorists entered Israel on October 7th.
  • The buffer zone aims to create a sterile zone without any buildings that could serve as a base from which to launch future attacks, and is seen as a vital component to reassure residents of the Gaza periphery to eventually return to their homes.
  • According to the IDF, there were 2,850 buildings in proximity to the fence, of which the IDF has already destroyed around 1,100.
  • Overall, the latest IDF assessment is that 17 of the original 24 Hamas battalions have been critically damaged and their command and control disrupted.
  • The remaining battalions are the focus of the fighting in Khan Yunis, plus in the areas of Rafah and in the southern edge close to the Egyptian border.
  • Despite losing their fighting formation, Hamas fighters have returned to their founding principles and remain able to operate as small cells, taking advantage of their remaining access to the tunnel shafts to attack IDF soldiers with anti-tank missiles and improvised explosive devices.
  • According to the latest IDF assessment, around 10,000 Hamas fighters have been killed. Hamas figures cite over 25,000 Gazans killed, without making a distinction between combatants and civilians.
  • IDF efforts to destroy Hamas’s overall control of the Strip are ongoing, with most senior Hamas leaders remaining at large.
  • There are reports in the international media that Israel and Hamas are close to reaching a new deal to release the hostages, again in stages in return for a pause in fighting and a higher ratio of Palestinian prisoners in return. There has been no official Israeli response to these reports.

Looking ahead: Foreign Secretary Cameron will visit Israel and the Palestinian Authority again this week. His trip will also include stops in Qatar and Turkey.

  • According to the FCDO, his focus will be to “get more aid into Gaza, hostages out and reach a sustainable, permanent ceasefire.”
  • The statement adds, “the Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary have set out the necessary elements for progress – Hamas must agree to the release of all hostages, they can no longer be in charge of Gaza and the threat from their terror and rocket attacks must end. An agreement must also be put in place for the Palestinian Authority to return to Gaza in order to provide governance and services and, increasingly, security.”

January 23, 2024

21 soldiers killed in worst incident since October 7th

Photo credit: IDF Spokesperson’s Office

What’s happened: On Monday, Israel suffered its heaviest loses since the beginning of the ground offensive.

  • The IDF Spokesperson’s Office announced this morning that 21 IDF reservists were killed in an incident inside the Gaza Strip yesterday.
  • According to initial reports, the IDF soldiers were in the process of destroying buildings using mines, together with engineering troops. Two rocket-propelled grenades were fired, the first towards a tank, as a result of which two soldiers were killed. The second RPG was fired at one of the buildings that already had explosives inside. These then detonated, leading to the buildings collapsing.
  • Through the night, rescue teams operated to extract injured soldiers and retrieve the bodies. In addition to the fatalities, seven soldiers were injured and transferred to hospital, two in serious condition, two moderate, and three light.
  • The incident took place just 600 metres from the border fence on the Gaza side. The buildings designated for demolition were part of the plan to create a buffer zone and restore a sense of security for when Israelis can return to their homes so close to the fence.
  • In a separate incident, three IDF officers were also killed yesterday in an intense fire fight between IDF troops and Hamas gunmen in Khan Yunis. Three more soldiers were seriously wounded.

: Sunday saw a record high 260 trucks enter the Gaza Strip, the most on any single day since the outset of the war. An additional 213 trucks went in yesterday.

  • According to data provided by the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories Office, 9,923 aid trucks have entered the Gaza Strip so far in the war, delivering 182,670 tonnes of . The total includes:
    • 5,586 trucks transporting 117,350 tonnes of food.
    • 1,440 trucks transporting 20,780 tonnes of shelter.
    • 1,143 trucks transporting 13,550 tonnes of medical supplies.
    • 947 trucks transporting 19,020 tonnes of water.
    • 807 trucks transporting 11,970 tonnes of other aid.
  • Nonetheless, Yediot Ahronot suggests that “most of the humanitarian aid being delivered to the Gaza Strip isn’t reaching its intended recipients and has done little to help the civilian population,” with “Hamas officials who control the aid coming into Gaza… unmoved by the sight of hungry and cold children.”

Context: In total, 221 IDF soldiers have been killed since the beginning of the ground operation inside Gaza and a total of 555 IDF soldiers have been killed since Hamas launched its attack on October 7th.

  • These announcements follow strict protocols. As with all fatalities, the immediate family members are notified before the deaths are made public. In addition, the immediate family notifies the wider family before the names are released to the media.
  • Reports claim that Israel has presented a new potential hostage deal to Egyptian and Qatari mediators.
  • The proposed deal would see Israel agree to pause fighting in the Gaza Strip for two months and to the release of a large number of Palestinian prisoners – including those sentenced for serious crimes – in exchange for the release of all of the hostages and the bodies of dead Israelis held in Gaza, with releases occurring in several stages.
  • The first stage would see the release of the remaining women hostages, alongside men over 60 and those in poor health. Female soldiers, male soldiers, and those hostages serving in civilian security squads would be released in later stages, as would the bodies of those who have died.
  • In total over 250 people were kidnapped on October 7th. 121 have so far been extricated, while 136 remain in captivity. Of those, it is estimated at least 27 are no longer alive.
  • Alongside the hostage releases, Israel would agree to a fighting pause which would see an IDF redeployment in Gaza, away from major population centres, and the monitored return to their homes of displaced residents of Gaza City and the northern Gaza Strip.
  • Meeting yesterday with hostages’ families, Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed that Israel had presented a deal and was awaiting Hamas’s response.
  • Netanyahu hinted that, in the meantime, the intensity of Israeli operations in Gaza would remain high, since his view is that the greater the military pressure on Hamas, the more likely it us that Hamas will accept the Israeli proposal.
  • Netanyahu also claimed that no military operation to free the remaining hostages was currently on the table, and that, contrary to reports, there was uniformity of opinion on the hostage question within the war cabinet.
  • Reports have recently claimed that Minister Gadi Eisenkot – who entered the War Cabinet alongside Minister Gantz – has advocated a greater priority placed on releasing hostages, even if it comes at the cost of limiting combat.
  • Elsewhere, a small group of hostages’ relatives burst into a meeting being held by the Knesset Finance Committee yesterday.
  • They held up placards addressed to MKs reading “You won’t sit here while they’re dying there,” and “You brought down a government over hametz, but not over this?” (The latter is a reference to the collapse of the Bennett-Lapid government in 2022.)
  • Last night, around 200 people, including released hostages and their families, demonstrated near the Prime Minister’s Residence on Azza Street in Jerusalem, some spending the whole night there.

Looking ahead: In the latest US diplomatic efforts, US National Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa Brett McGurk is in Cairo to advance a hostage deal. He is expected to proceed to Qatar.

  • President Biden supports a temporary pause in fighting to secure a hostage release and the delivery of more humanitarian aid to Gaza.
  • Israel’s war cabinet is expected to convene on Thursday to discuss this issue, with a delay caused by last night’s disaster in Gaza.

January 22, 2024

Government faces pressure as Gaza operation continues

What’s happened: The IDF continue to operate deep in Khan Yunis, and have made advances in the south and west of the city.

  • Defence Minister Gallant met with the families of hostages on Sunday and told them that as they advance in Khan Yunis, there are initial signs that reaching Hamas’s most sensitive areas is moving Israel closer to accomplishing the two supreme missions of the war.
  • On Sunday, the IDF released footage of a tunnel where hostages had been held underneath Khan Yunis.
  • In parallel, family members of the hostages set up a tent encampment outside the prime minister’s private home in Jerusalem. Gabriela Leimberg, who spent 53 days in captivity to Hamas, told the gathering, “Mr. Prime Minister, every day in captivity is hell. The soldiers and the hostages were abandoned on your watch. They are out of time. I ask you, rescue them and bring back all the bodies.”
  • On Sunday Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “We are continuing the war on all fronts and in all sectors. We are not giving immunity to any terrorist: Not in Gaza, not in Lebanon, not in and not anywhere. Whoever tries to harm us, we will harm him.”
  • “Regarding our hostages, we have returned home – as of today – 110 of our hostages and we are obligated to returning all of them. This is one of the goals of the war and the military pressure is a necessary condition to achieving it.”
  • “Hamas is demanding, in exchange for the release of our hostages, the end of the war, the withdrawal of our forces from Gaza, the release of the murders and rapists of the Nukhba and leaving Hamas in place. Were we to agree to this – our soldiers would have fallen in vain. Were we to agree to this – we would not be able to ensure the security of our citizens. We would be unable to safely restore the evacuees to their homes and the next October 7 would be only a question of time. I am not prepared to accept such a mortal blow to the security of Israel; therefore, we will not agree to this.”

Context: The Israeli government continues to insist that military pressure is the best way to secure the release of more hostages, but faces increased pressure from the family of the hostages, from the US, and from the political opposition.

  • The tents erected in Jerusalem are the latest efforts to ratchet up the pressure by the families of the hostages. After over 100 days the campaign is evolving. Over the weekend around 2,000 people protested outside the prime minister’s home in Caesaria.
  • On Thursday evening, seven protestors were detained after they blocked the main Tel Aviv highway – a tactic used by those campaigning against judicial reform last year.
  • Netanyahu and his government are also facing growing pressure from the US to present a diplomatic vision for the ‘day after’.
  • After three weeks of not speaking directly, Netanyahu said that he told President Biden over the weekend, “after we eliminate Hamas, there will no entity in Gaza that finances terrorism, educates for terrorism or sends terrorists. Gaza must be demilitarised, under Israel’s full security control. I will not compromise on full Israeli security control of all territory west of the Jordan River.”
  • Netanyahu also declared, “My insistence is what has prevented, over the years, the establishment of a Palestinian state that would have constituted an existential danger to Israel. As long as I am Prime Minister, I will continue to strongly insist on this.”
  • In the past, going back to his Bar Ilan speech in 2009, through to the Trump Peace Plan Netanyahu has cautiously accepted the principle of a demilitarised Palestinian State. Articulating such an acceptance now is harder due to the constraints of his hard right coalition partners.
  • Behind the scenes, it is thought that Israel could be prepared to make a deal that entails a diplomatic arrangement and the release of terrorists from prison, but not members of Hamas’s elite Nukhba force, members of which committed the October 7 massacre.
  • Despite international pressure, the IDF is not yet expected to withdraw from the Gaza Strip and will not let residents return to the northern Gaza Strip as long as the hostages are not returned.
  • Only then can reconstruction efforts begin, Israel says, led by the pro-stability Arab states.
  • Netanyahu’s reference to Lebanon and comes as further attacks have been reported. According to Arab media sources, over the weekend five Iranian military officials from the IRGC  were killed in Damascus, alongside six Syrians. One of the Iranians, nicknamed Haji Sadek, had served as senior intelligence officer and in the past had been involved in targeting US assets in .
  • In addition, Lebanese sources reported a strike on a car near Tyre. The targets were also thought to be connected to the IRGC.
  • Meanwhile, attacks from Lebanon into northern Israel have also continued, including an anti-tank missile that struck an empty home in Moshav Avivim, causing significant damage.
  • To date, approximately 80,000 Israelis from northern communities are internally displaced due to Hezbollah’s rocket, mortar, drone, and anti-tank missile attacks from Lebanon since 7th October. These attacks have killed six civilians and nine soldiers.
  • Similarly, the IDF have continued to attack Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, taking their overall casualties to 165 combatants.
  • Meanwhile, the Israeli government acquiesced to another US demand and approved releasing tax funds to the Palestinian Authority (PA).
  • However the security cabinet approved measures to ensure none of the money would reach Gaza. Instead, a new mechanism would see the money assigned to Gaza deposited in trust with a third country, Norway.  Both the US and Norway have committed not to pass it onto Gaza, nor via a loan. If the clause is broken, Finance Minister Smotrich has insisted that all money to the PA will be frozen.
  • The Shin Bet and Defence Ministry supported the release of the funds in order to maintain stability in the West Bank and ensure the PA can survive.
  • Despite last week’s agreement to allow medicine into Gaza, there is still no indication that the medicine reached the hostages.
  • At Israel’s request, at least 45 hostages who suffer from chronic diseases were supposed to receive various medicines, including insulin, asthma inhalers, medicine for high blood pressure and heart conditions. The French Foreign Ministry who facilitated the deal said yesterday that it had no information about where the medicines were, aside from the fact that they are in Gaza.
  • For the first time since the war began, the Labour Party will present a vote of no-confidence in the Knesset. Whilst it does not currently have the support even from all members of the opposition, it is a declaratory move indicating that, from the Labour Party’s perspective, the period of political grace is over.

Looking ahead: Mounting pressure from the US, Egypt and Qatar could result in a return to negotiations for a hostage release deal. However, it is difficult to see Israel accepting Hamas’s terms.

  • According to the New York Times the US, the UK, and European officials are pressuring Israel to send to Gaza via Israeli ports in order to alleviate the humanitarian crisis.

January 19, 2024

Latest US strike against Houthis

What’s happened: Yesterday, the US conducted its fifth strike in a week against Houthi-controlled sites in Yemen.

  • The latest attack was smaller than previous missions, targeting a “small number” of anti-ship missiles that the Houthis were about to launch against vessels in the Red Sea.
  • The US has also confirmed that yesterday the Houthis launched two anti-ship ballistic missiles on a US-owned tanker ship, Chem Ranger, in the Gulf of Aden. Although the Houthis claimed a “direct hit”, no damage or injuries were reported and the vessel continued on its way.
  • Overnight Wednesday, the US struck more than a dozen Houthi sites, following a Houthi drone attack on a US vessel, also in the Gulf of Aden.
  • Speaking yesterday, Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh said US strikes were purely defensive in nature and that the US was “not at war with the Houthis.” “The Houthis are the ones that continue to launch cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles at innocent mariners,” she continued. “What we are doing, with our partners, is self-defence.”
  • Adding to the tension in the Red Sea, the Iranian navy declared that its destroyer Alvarez was patrolling the Red Sea to protect Iranian vessels.

Context: According to the IDF, since October 7th, the Houthis have launched 34 ballistic missile and UAV attacks on Israel and at least 52 naval attacks on international vessels in the Red Sea.

  • The disruption to global trade caused by this Houthi aggression, has been significant, especially that between Europe and Asia.
  • In mid-December, in response, the US formed a multi-nation coalition, including the UK, dubbed Operation Prosperity Guardian. The first US military response came on December 31st, with operations ratcheted up beginning January 11th.
  • On 10 January 2024, the UN Security Council adopted resolution 2722 (2024) which condemned the Houthi attacks, demanded they stop, affirmed the right to freedom of navigation, and reaffirmed the arms embargo in place against the Houthis.
  • The Biden administration has also this week re-designated the Houthis as a terrorist organisation, having lifted the classification in February 2021 in order to ease the flow of aid into Yemen.
  • In a Yemen decimated by the impact of a brutal civil war, at least 75 percent of the population rely on aid for their survival.
  • Nevertheless, the Houthis have advanced missile and UAV capacity supplied by Iran, enabling them to attack Israel and target ships in the southern Red Sea.
  • Last weekend, Prime Minister Netanyahu described the conflict as “a war against the axis of evil that is led by Iran and its three proxies—the three Hs: Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis.”
  • In an interview published in Russian media this morning and cited by The Guardian, senior Houthi official Mohammed al-Bukhaiti said that Russian and Chinese vessels would be allowed free movement in the Red Sea, but that any vessel “in any way connected with Israel” would continue to be subject to attack.
  • The Guardian also quotes the Houthis leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi saying yesterday that it was a “great honour” to be in conflict with Israel, the US, and UK.

Context from the Podcast

  • ‘The Houthis are at their core a religious revival movement of Shia Zaydi Islam, which is a sect of Islam, different from what we know [of Shi’ism] in Iran and Lebanon. They started operating in the early 1990s from the northern province of Sadat, and they were helping to revive Zaydi Islam, as it was marginalised by the central government…’
  • ‘We saw a radicalisation of the Houthis after September 11 and then after the invasion by the US of Iraq in 2003… Yemen is very much divided, fragmented, fragile. We can see that since the beginning we had the Houthis on the one hand and the ousted central government on the other hand, with many other tribal forces and also the Southern Movement, which was calling for the independence of the south and also members of what we call the Muslim Brotherhood.’
  • ‘All of them were part of the coalition against the Houthis. And then at the beginning of 2015, we have Saudi Arabia joining and forming a coalition of other countries, mainly Arab countries, along with the United Arab States. All of them fight in order to what Saudis say, return the internationally recognized government and also to stop the Houthis from taking over all of Yemen as they see them as an Iranian proxy.’
  • ‘The Saudis want… out of Yemen completely. They are willing to give them many concessions in order to achieve that: in terms of changing the border line with Yemen, especially in the in the western part; in terms of allowing ships and flights to international Sanaa Airport to go in; and so many other concessions.’
  • ‘But though the Saudis claim to have almost a done deal with the Houthis, we did not see an agreement, a full agreement of ending the war between the two powers. The situation now is very fragile and is threatening to pull once again the Saudis into Yemeni territories and might even renew the war within Yemen…’
  • ‘And now what the Houthis are doing in relation to the war in Gaza would have implications potentially at home to renew the civil war with Saudi Arabia. And I think that as much as the Houthis don’t want that, the Saudis don’t want that even more.’
  • ‘Radicalisation after 2003 within Houthi ranks brings us to “God is great, death to America. Death to Israel, curse on the Jews, victory to Islam”… But also with that comes a pro-Palestinian sentiment.’
  • ‘We have to look at it not only through the eyes of their alliance with Iran… but also the gains for them within Yemen and the region and their Palestinian brothers. So you have, first of all, a lot of support that they’re gaining, both within Yemen, even from their biggest opponents, and outside in the Arab and Muslim world for helping the Palestinians.’
  • ‘For them, it is very embarrassing, maybe for Saudi Arabia, Egypt or other countries that they’re not doing enough for the Palestinians, but the Houthis do so and it helps them perhaps magnify their part in in in the Arab and Muslim world by doing that.’

Looking ahead: Despite the Houthis’ recent attacks, it has not yet been declared by Israel to be a terror organisation. Following the US announcement designating the Houthi as such, Israel is planning a similar action and this is now being reviewed by senior security officials.

  • While a UK government source told The Times this week that the “option is always available” for London to follow Washington in proscribing the Houthis as a terror group, there is no evidence that moves have been made in this direction

January 18, 2024

Medical aid enters Gaza

Medication deal: Trucks transporting medication have now entered the Gaza Strip, with some of it earmarked for the hostages.

  • The consignment was flown into Egypt by the Qataris yesterday, before proceeding to Kerem Shalom for security screening by Israel.
  • It is thought to include three months’ worth of medication for those 45 of the hostages with pre-existing medical conditions.
  • According to Hamas officials, the terms of the Qatari-French brokered deal include 1,000 boxes of medication for Gazans for every one provided for the hostages.
  • The question of who will deliver the medication to the hostages, or whether or not the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) will have access to them, is unclear.
  • There is further scepticism on the Israeli side as to whether the medication will actually be provided to the hostages. Israel has proposed three possible methods of verification:
    • Supervision by the ICRC.
    • Verified video footage of hostages being administered medication, which would also serve as proof of life.
    • Qatari envoys personally delivering the medication.
  • News of the arrival of the medication has become subsumed into the wider story of disfunction and miscommunication at the political level, after it appeared that Prime Minister Netanyahu had not kept Defence Minister Gallant and IDF Chief of Staff Halevi up to speed, prompting confusion and conflicting statements about the inspection mechanism.

Gaza Strip: The IDF continues to operate across the Strip while the most intense fighting remains in the Khan Yunis area.

  • Relating to fighting in Khan Yunis, the IDF said they “eliminated more than thirty terrorists in the area, just in the last day.” They also continue to operate underground in Khan Yunis, “scanning, locating, and destroying… the underground maze.”
  • IDF Spokesperson Hagari added, “the fighting in the tunnels and their destruction is challenging, combining new combat methods, some of which did not previously exist in the IDF, and even, If I can modestly say, not in other places in the world.”
  • In the central area, troops returned to the area they had previously vacated, from where Hamas launched a large barrage of rockets towards Netivot earlier in the week. Yesterday, troops located and destroyed thirty rocket launcher barrels that were hidden underground, loaded with additional rockets for further launch and ready to be fired.
  • According to the IDF, they also “completed the destruction of the weapon production infrastructure of Hamas’s Central Camps Brigade, a brigade that controlled the centre of the Gaza Strip. The infrastructure included workshops and factories above and below ground. These were central to Hamas’s empowerment capability, and from there, they transported the weapons and rockets to all areas of the Strip.”
  • “In the northern Gaza Strip, IDF troops killed two armed terrorists who planned to ambush IDF troops. Furthermore, a number of aerial strikes on armed terrorists that posed a threat to IDF troops were carried out, including against terrorists operating adjacent to a school.”

Northern border: The IDF continues to attack Hezbollah targets. On Wednesday, they struck a terrorist cell that fired rockets from Lebanon in the Mount Dov area. The IDF also confirmed they “eliminated a Hamas terrorist cell that carried out shooting from the Qlaileh area in southern Lebanon.”

  • Elsewhere too, several launches from Lebanon toward Israel were identified.
  • Around 20 rockets were launched towards the coastal Rosh Hanikara area, there were no casualties reported.
  • Two rockets were detected in Metula, one caused damage to infrastructure.
  • The IDF announced “one of the terrorist cells responsible for firing at Rosh HaNikra in northern Israel was immediately identified, tracked and struck by an IDF aircraft.”

Context: Israeli media is reporting that the impetus for a medication deal at this time came not from the government, nor from the IDF or the Defence Ministry, both of whom had been working on the medication issue for several weeks.

  • Instead, it appears that the Hostage and Missing Families Forum held direct talks with the French government, who began brokering the arrangement before Netanyahu then became personally involved and tasked the Mossad with facilitating the arrangement with the Qataris.
  • The French and Qataris had insisted on framing the deal as the initiative of a civilian body, and the public introduction of the prime minister to the equation is said to have caused its delay.
  • Israeli doctors have raised concerns about the hostages taking their medication without professional supervision and at the same dosage they received prior to their kidnap. “Restarting medications after such a long period of malnutrition, lack of sleep and sunlight could require dosage adjustments that only a qualified medical professional would be knowledgeable about and could guide a patient on,” Prof. Alon Hershko, a chair at Hadassah Medical Centre told the Times of Israel.
  • Since their capture on October 7, there has been much Israeli and international criticism of the ICRC for not gaining access to the hostages to assess their well-being.
  • The medication deal is not thought, at this stage, to be a precursor to a further hostage release deal. Publicly, Hamas continues to insist that further releases are contingent on a full cease-fire being declared, something Israel rejects.
  • The Israeli government continues to reinforce its dual objectives of destroying Hamas’s military capacity and bring about the release of the hostages.
  • IDF Spokesperson Hagari related to the hostages in his briefing on Wednesday evening saying, “we are making every effort to produce intelligence about the hostages and adjust the operational activity according to the intelligence available to us. It must be said to the public – there is no complete picture of the hostages. We are in a continuous intelligence effort to complete this picture, to build it, to achieve it all the time.”
  • In total over 250 people were kidnapped on October 7. 121 have so far been extricated, while 136 remain in captivity. Of those it is estimated at least 27 are no longer alive.
  • Today marks the first birthday of the youngest hostage, Kfir Bibas, taken along with his mother and four-year-old brother. In further torment for their extended family, it is unclear if they are still alive.
  • Although meeting the criteria of the women and children released in November, none of the Bibas family members were freed. Instead, Hamas forced the father Yarden Bibas (held separately) to appear in a propaganda video saying his wife and two young children had been killed in an airstrike. There is no evidence to ascertain if this is accurate.
  • As per yesterday’s BICOM briefing, the Israeli war cabinet is seemingly divided between those, like Benny Gantz and Gabi Eisenkot, who are prepared to consider ending the fighting if it means the return of the hostages, and others, such as Ron Dermer and Gallant who insist that the fighting must continue.
  • Gallant said yesterday, “we are continuing the fighting until victory. Until we pound the Hamas organisation, until we strip it of all its major military capabilities and remove them from power in Gaza. On the issue of hostages too, we have no right to stop the fighting as long as there are hostages in Gaza.”
  • Elsewhere, according to reports from US network NBC, US frustrations with Netanyahu have led the Biden Administration to begin to work together with a number of Israeli figures on the implementation of a Palestinian-Saudi plan for the post-Netanyahu era.
  • Netanyahu has reportedly rejected a proposal from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken which would see Saudi Arabia normalise relations with Israel in return for Israel’s cooperation with a pathway towards a two-state solution.
  • Blinken’s proposal is said to have come after Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and four other Arab leaders confirmed to him that they would also be prepared to fund Gazan reconstruction and support the return of a reformed Palestinian Authority to Gaza.
  • Prior to October 7, the Saudi normalisation deal was thought to be at a relatively advanced stage. The process had been a major priority of the Biden administration, and scuppering it a principle strategic goal of Hamas and its Iranian paymaster.

Looking ahead: Chief of Staff Halevi has said that war in the north is now a more likely proposition. “I don’t know when there will be war in the north,” he said. “I do know that I can tell you that the likelihood of this happening in the next few months is much higher than it was in the past. I can tell you that I think that we will be starting it with a lot more advantages, with a lot of experience and a lot of capabilities and with surprises, and when we have to, we will go forward with all our might.”

  • It is thought that even in the event of a ceasefire, Hamas would not agree to release all remaining hostages, and that it would keep at least some as an insurance policy against Israeli attempts to assassinate its top leaders.
  • This afternoon the extended Bibas family and supporters are gathering at Hostages Square in Tel Aviv  to further highlight the family’s ongoing trauma.

January 17, 2024

IDF destroys key strategic tunnel

Gaza: The IDF announced it had destroyed a strategic tunnel used for terrorist activity that connected between the north and south of the Gaza Strip.

  • The tunnel was reportedly hundreds of metres long, 90 metres deep, and had close to 5,700 shafts. It was used by Hamas for getting across the Strip.
  • The IDF said Hamas used over 6,000 tonnes of concrete and 1,800 tonnes of steel for its extensive tunnel network and had invested tens of millions of dollars in the project.
  • Elsewhere, a heavy barrage of rockets from Gaza included a hit on a civilian store in Netivot. The rockets were fired from an area in Gaza that the IDF had recently left.
  • Meanwhile, a delegation of Israeli security officials arrived in Cairo for meetings with senior Egyptian officials.
  • According to a statement issued by the Prime Minister’s Bureau (following a formal Qatari statement on the issue) hostages will begin to receive medication today.
  • The medication for the hostages, as well as that Israel agreed could be supplied to the Gaza Strip in exchange for said medication, will be delivered by two Qatari air force planes to El-Arish, and from there to the Gaza Strip.
  • The Shin Bet said that an Islamic Jihad commander, Bassel Mahdi, who was captured in Gaza, told of how members of his organisation were trained in Iran.
  • Two reservists were killed in fighting in northern Gaza, bringing the total death toll since the ground incursion to 192.

West Bank: A joint statement by the IDF and the Shin Bet announced three members of a terror cell were killed in Nablus by drone strike. The individuals who were killed were responsible for one of the main terror cells in the West Bank.

  • Abdallah Abu Shalal and his squad were responsible for a number of attacks in the past year, including the shooting attack in the Shimon HaTzadik neighbourhood of Jerusalem last April, where two Israeli civilians were injured.

The north: The IDF struck Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, on the Suluki valley more than 20 kilometres from the Israeli border. The IDF reported that it used Air Force and artillery, targeting dozens of Hezbollah “positions, military instillations and weapons production infrastructure.”

  • Lebanese security sources told Reuters there were at least 16 airstrikes in quick succession on the Valley, describing them as the “densest bombardment of a single location” since hostilities began.
  • The Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar reported that President Biden’s envoy, Amos Hochstein, proposed that Hezbollah be pushed back seven kilometres from the border with Israel and the Lebanese army be stationed in southern Lebanon. According to the report, Hochstein said that “there is no need for a withdrawal to the north of the Litani River.”

Red Sea: The Houthis targeted with naval missiles the Malta-flagged, Greek-owned carrier Zografia ship near the Yemeni port of Saleef. This resulted in a “direct hit,” according to the group. The ship, that was heading to Israel, sustained material damage but no injuries.

  • US Central Command conducted a strike in Yemen that destroyed four Houthi anti-ship ballistic missiles, in response for Houthi attacks on international shipping lanes in the Red Sea.

Davos: Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan told a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos that the Kingdom could normalise relations with Israel if a comprehensive deal were reached including Palestinian statehood. “We agree that regional peace includes peace for Israel, but that could only happen through peace for the Palestinians through a Palestinian state.”

  • Also at Davos, US Secretary of State Blinken said Arab countries claim that they do not “want to get into the business of rebuilding Gaza only to have it levelled again.”
  • US National Security Adviser Sullivan also spoke at Davos and explained the US’s strategy prior to October 7: “our approach was and remains focused on moving toward greater integration and stability in the region,” he said. “Long before October 7, the US was deeply engaged in an effort to secure a political horizon for the Palestinian people – with Israel’s security guaranteed as part of that.”
  • “We judged that direct negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians, which had fallen short so many times before, it was unlikely to succeed. We determined the best approach was to work toward a package deal that involved normalization between Israel and key Arab states, together with meaningful progress and a political horizon for the Palestinian people.”
  • “That was our goal before October 7, and it was our progress toward that goal that Hamas sought to destroy,” he said. He went on to say: “That is the reality Israel is contending with – a determined terrorist threat that chose as its battlefield the communities of innocent civilians, and still to this day holds more than 100 hostages in circumstances that are dire and deteriorating.”

Context: Divisions continue within the Israeli cabinet. Minister Gantz, who joined the Netanyahu coalition after October 7 in order to help prosecute the war, recently submitted a list of demands to Prime Minister Netanyahu and the National Security Council regarding seven issues that are critical for the ongoing war which need to be discussed and decisions made on them:

  • These include:
    • Reiterating the government’s war goals, especially as they pertain to the hostages.
    • The future of Philadelphi Road, which runs along the length of the Gaza-Egypt border, and the mechanism to prevent future smuggling operations.
    • The mechanism for distributing and administering civilian life in Gaza, either by means of an international mechanism or some other mechanism.
    • The timetable and conditions to allow the residents of the Gaza periphery and the northern communities to return to their communities.
    • A deadline for the diplomatic efforts to reach an arrangement for the northern border which pushes Hezbollah and its elite Radwan force away from the border.
  • Some of the above issues have not been discussed at all whereas others have only been discussed superficially. At all events, no decisions have been made on any of them.
  • Gantz and his political ally Eisenkot also endorsed the warnings that were issued by IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Halevi and Defense Minister Gallant, who said that the achievements that have been made in the war would be eroded unless complementary political decisions were made.
  • The US continues to try and exert pressure on Israel to strengthen the Palestinian Authority (PA). Officials recently told Israel that they expect to see the transfer of funds owed to the PA, as well as the entry of Palestinian labourers into Israel. Strong opposition exists within some elements of the cabinet to both of these steps (for more details on the debate over Palestinian labourers see Tuesday’s BICOM brief).
  • The fact that rockets have emanated from areas the IDF has recently left has led to debate about whether it needs to return (see Israeli Media Summary below).
  • Hochstein’s alleged suggestion that Hezbollah move north, but not beyond the Litani river, is a moderation of the demands of UN Resolution 1701, with which Hezbollah has continually refused to comply, and which calls for their withdrawal north of the river.
  • Hochstein’s mediation is part of wider US efforts to dampen tensions between Israel and Hezbollah on the norther border and prevent an escalation Washington fears could spread to a regional war.

January 16, 2024

Elderly Israeli woman killed in Raanana terror attack

Raanana attacks: Edna Bluestein, a 79-year-old Israeli woman, was killed, and 18 more people wounded in Raanana yesterday, in attacks by two Palestinian cousins from the Hebron area.

  • Seven children remain hospitalised with their injuries. Five of the injured are in serious condition and two – a 60-year-old and a 16-year-old boy – in critical condition.
  • First, Mahmoud Zidat, 44, and in Israel illegally, arrived in a stolen vehicle at the industrial area on Raanana’s Haroshet Street. He stabbed a woman, wounding her slightly, before stealing her vehicle and embarking out on a rampage, running down two pedestrians. When the vehicle became stuck, he first attempted to commandeer another vehicle, before setting out on foot, stabbing another individual.
  • Minutes later, on Ahuza Street, a few kilometers away, Zidat’s cousin Ahmad Zidat, 24, carried out a ramming attack at a bus stop, during which Bluestein was killed and 14 others injured. All of the wounded from both attacks were taken to Meir, Beilinson, Ichilov and Schneider hospitals.
  • Both terrorists were captured and handed to the Shin Bet for questioning. According to the Shin Bet, both terrorists had been blacklisted for entering Israel illegally numerous times in the past.
  • The Khalil a-Rahman group from Hebron, affiliated with Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, assumed responsibility for the terror attack.

Hostage video: Hamas yesterday released a propaganda video of the hostage Noa Argamani, claiming, under duress, that two other hostages Yossi Sharabi and Itay Svirsky were killed as a result of Israeli strikes.

  • A day earlier, Hamas had released a video of all three hostages pleading for their release. It is not clear when either of the videos were recorded. The first video ended with a taunting text, “Tomorrow we will inform you of their fate.”
  • In response to the recording, IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari denied Hamas’s allegation that Itai Svirsky had been killed by IDF fire. Hagari described that allegation as a lie.
  • Hagari added, “We did not know their exact location in real-time. We do not strike where we know there are hostages. In retrospect, we know that we attacked targets close to the location where they were held.”
  • The IDF Spokesperson’s office added, “Hamas is weaponizing social media as an instrument of war. Hamas wages psychological warfare to terrorise and torment. This is a new benchmark in barbarism set by Hamas.”
  • Itay Svirsky, 38, was kidnapped while he was visiting his mother on Kibbutz Be’eri. Both his parents, Orit and Rafi Svirsky, were murdered. His 96-year-old grandmother Aviva Sela managed to survive.
  • Yossi Sharabi, 53, was also taken from Kibbutz Be’eri, along with his brother, Eli Sharabi. Eli’s wife, Lianne and their two daughters, Noiya and Yahel, were killed on October 7.
  • Noa Argamani, 26, was abducted from the Supernova music festival. She was seen on video on the morning of October 7, being taken away on the back of a motorbike.

Gaza Strip: The IDF have continued to reduce their presence in northern Gaza Strip, as part of their gradual redeployment into phase three of the war.

  • There remains one IDF division, including seven brigades operating in southern Gaza in the Khan Yunis area.
  • Another IDF solider was killed in action yesterday, and two others seriously wounded, reflecting the continued fighting in southern Gaza. Since the beginning of the ground operation, 189 soldiers have fallen.
  • In Nuseirat, in central Gaza, the IDF announced they “located a compound used for manufacturing mortar shells, a rocket production factory and weapons hidden in the building of a humanitarian organisation.” In addition, forces “encountered 10 Hamas terrorists hiding in the school. The terrorists were apprehended and detained for further investigation.”
  • Additional troops remain deployed along the route that bisects the Strip into north and south.
  • In the northern Gaza section smaller forces remain focused on pin-point raids against remaining terror targets. For example, yesterday in the area of Beit Lahia, IDF troops located approximately 100 rocket set-installations and 60 ready-to-use rockets. The troops killed dozens of terrorists during the activity.
  • Despite the IDF presence, this morning a barrage of 50 rockets were fired towards southern Israel.  There were direct hits reported in Netivot and Moshav Givolim.

Context: Prior to the October 7 attacks, around 150,000 Palestinians from the West Bank held permits to work inside Israel or in Jewish settlements in the West Bank. In addition, 18,000 Gazans also held work permits.

  • Despite the fact that both terrorists were in Israel illegally, Defence Secretary Gallant faces political criticism for his plan to increase permits for West Bank Palestinian workers to work in Israel.
  • Work permits were cancelled by the government in the wake of October 7, and the tax revenues collected by Israel on behalf of the Palestinian Authority (PA) withheld.
  • Gallant has supported the Shin Bet and IDF leadership in pushing for the work permit policy to be reversed, in a bid to calm heightened tensions in the West Bank, and to ease the burden on the Israeli construction industry, which is currently short on manpower.
  • On Sunday, Gallant said that he “hope[d] that the government will accept the position of the IDF and the Shin Bet on everything that is connected to labourers and money. I will say this in the clearest way possible: A strong PA is in the best security interests of Israel.”
  • Over the weekend, Israeli media reported that the Shin Bet had written to Prime Minister Netanyahu urging him to allow the return of West Bank workers to Israel and the distribution of the funds to the PA.
  • The Israeli government faces a dilemma: on one hand it understands that Palestinian workers represent economic stability for the West Bank, bringing in crucial revenue, both for themselves and their families, and in tax revenues for the PA. Greater economic stability is thought to have security benefits, too, with those able to provide for their families generally less susceptible to Hamas’s and other groups’ incitement and recruitment. Palestinian labour is also important to the Israeli economy, especially the construction industry.
  • However, after October 7, allowing tens of thousands of Palestinians to enter Israel is regarded as a security risk, even though Palestinians with permits very rarely carry out attacks. Reports that Hamas was aided in its intelligence in planning October 7 by Gazans working in Israel only exacerbates these fears.
  • One of the terrorists had worked at a carwash on Haroshet Street. Detectives are now trying to determine whether the terrorists stole the vehicles they used from the carwash.
  • The IDF’s assessment is that several hundred Palestinians are currently in Israel illegally working for Israelis.
  • Since October 7, Israeli forces have arrested more than 2,650 wanted Palestinians across the West Bank, including more than 1,300 affiliated with Hamas. According to the Palestinian Authority health ministry, some 300 West Bank Palestinians have been killed in that time, the majority thought to have died in clashes with Israeli troops.
  • Security Cabinet minister and New Hope Party Chairman Gideon Saar said, “the painful terror attack in Raanana is further proof of the fact that it is impossible to distinguish, certainly in a time of war, when allowing labourers into Israel, between Palestinians from Gaza and Palestinians from Judea and Samaria. Age is no guarantee of anything, either. We must fight relentlessly against the entry of Palestinians: by means of prevention and severe punishment of people who drive, host and hire [them].”
  • Yisrael Beiteinu Chairman Avigdor Liberman said, “regrettably, the only uniting thing in this war cabinet is that same mistaken preconception that visited the October 7 disaster upon us. I can’t understand the defence minister, who is talking about how we need to strengthen the PA. Whom exactly do we want to strengthen? Abu Mazen [Mahmoud Abbas], the chronic Holocaust-denier who has refused to condemn the October 7 massacre? The person who is behind South Africa’s case and is inciting against the State of Israel—that’s who we want to strengthen?”

Looking ahead: Following the terror attacks, Israeli forces will be vigilant over the prospect of copycat attacks.

  • It is understood that as part of the ongoing talks between senior Israeli and US officials, the US is keen to further empower the PA, including by encouraging Israel to release the tax funds and renew permits for Palestinian workers.
  • The security establishment have been exploring a pilot programme to allow a limited return of West Bank Palestinian workers into Israel, with enhanced security provisions.

January 15, 2024

Two Israeli civilians killed in the north, as Israel marked 100 days since October 7th  

Northern border: Attacks have continued from Lebanon towards northern Israel.

  • Several anti-tank missiles were launched toward the areas of Zar’it, Shomera, and Kfar Yuval.
  • In Kfar Yuval, the missile hit a house, killing 76-year-old Mira Ayalon and her son, 45-year-old Barak. The father, Eliyahu was also injured.
  • The missiles are believed to have been fired from Adeisa, a Lebanese village that is six kilometers east of Kfar Yuval.
  • Rockets were also fired toward the communities of Misgav Am and Goren that mostly landed in open areas.
  • Earlier on Sunday there was an attempted infiltration in the Mount Dov area (where there is no fence). Three combatants were killed in the ensuing exchanges of fire. Kalashnikov rifles, magazines, hand grenades and anti-tank missiles were found in their possession. Three IDF soldiers were wounded in the incident.
  • In response to these attacks, the IDF struck Hezbollah targets, deep into Lebanon, as far as Jabal Safi, which is 35 kilometres from the Israeli border.

Tel Aviv: Over the weekend families of the hostages and their supporters held a 24-hour rally to mark 100 days in captivity.

  • President Herzog spoke in English with a message to the world. “From Hostage Square in Tel Aviv, a symbol of solidarity and humanity,” he said, “I call upon the entire family of nations to do your part. This isn’t just about our battle, it is a battle for the entire world. Stand with life and liberty against barbarism and hate. Stand with freedom and democracy, stand with our hostages, and help bring them back home. There is no ‘later’. The time to act is now.”
  • Shelly, the mother of Omer Shem Tov who is being held captive, said, “my husband and I were raised on mutual responsibility and that is how we raised our kids too. We raised them that we don’t leave anyone behind. Onehundred days in which I haven’t had air to breathe and Omer, who is in captivity without his ventilator, really doesn’t have air to breathe. One hundred days in which I’ve gone into Omer’s room and I’ve told him to be strong and have prayed. I’m asking Omer to wait a bit more, another drop. We’ll get you home.”
  • Simon Walters, the British Ambassador, delivered a personal message of support from Foreign Secretary Cameron.
  • The US Ambassador was also among the speakers, as well as a prerecorded speech by French President Emmanuel Macron.

Context: The IDF’s assessment is that Hezbollah has escalated its attacks in response to the death of senior Hezbollah commanders killed last week, including the commander of their Radwan commando unit, whose remit includes planning infiltration attempts, and the commander of their drone operations in southern Lebanon.

  • The infiltration attempt in Mount Dov was claimed by a Palestinian terror group in Lebanon, in response to the recent killing of Hamas leaders Salah al-Arouri and Samir Fendi in Beirut.
  • Overall, according to the IDF, around 2,000 rockets, mortars, anti-tank missiles and UAVs have been fired from Lebanon into Israel over the past 100 days.
  • Another 30 have been fired from .
  • The IDF has struck around 750 targets and has killed around 170 military combatants.
  • In the south, the IDF maintain that the military campaign to dismantle Hamas’s military infrastructure is the best method to secure the return the hostages.
  • However, there appear to be disagreements within the war cabinet. Minister Gantz and Eisenkot support the statements made by the hostages’ families, that everything must be done in order to reach a deal.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant have argued that only military pressure would be able to bring about a deal to free the hostages.
  • Despite withdrawing troops from northern Gaza, four divisions continue to operate inside Gaza. According to IDF Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, “the forces are advancing in the field according to plan, and adapting their operational methods to the tasks, the terrain, and the enemy.”
  • “We have moved the focus of our efforts to the centre and south of the Strip, where we exposed, including today, weapons manufacturing facilities above and below ground, including missiles intended for the Israeli home front, a real military industry. Destroying these is very important to prevent future strengthening, and it is important to understand, without manoeuvring in the field, it would not have been possible to do this. The forces are thoroughly and methodically dismantling infrastructure, and at the same time, the forces continue to eliminate terrorists from the air, sea, and in brave face-to-face combat on the ground in a very complex area.”
  • The IDF also announced that it has destroyed 700 rocket launchers since the operation begun, as well as seizing and destroying hundreds of rockets.
  • Nevertheless, Hamas is still able to launch rockets, including six M75 rockets launched yesterday towards Ashdod. One was intercepted, whilst the other five landed in open areas.
  • Marking 100 days since the October 7 massacre, the IDF released a range of statistics:
    • In Gaza, of the 23,000 fatalities, over 9,000 are combatants from Hamas and other terror organisations.
    • In terms of the Hamas military leadership, two of their five brigade commanders have been killed, as well as 19 Hamas battalion commanders and over 50 company commanders. These killings disrupt Hamas’s command and control.
    • In addition, around 2,300 suspected combatants have been arrested.
  • The IDF also revealed the extend of that has entered into Gaza Strip. This includes around 137,920 tons of aid:
    • 3,950 trucks, carrying 82,330 tons of food.
    • 1,151 trucks carrying 16,630 tons of tents and shelter equipment.
    • 1,007 trucks carrying 11,510 tons of medical equipment.
    • 863 trucks carrying 17,320 tons of water as well two pipelines delivering water from Israel into Gaza.

Looking ahead: The fate of the hostages held in Gaza looms large over Israeli society.

  • In particular, the remaining female hostages who, according to testimony from released hostages, have suffered sexual assaults and some of whom may have become pregnant as a result of being raped in captivity.
  • Israeli law allows a standard medical committee to authorise an abortion up to the 24th week of pregnancy. Beyond this, a special committee of senior doctors can authorise an abortion. In the hope that hostages will be released, a special committee will been formed to deal with this scenario.
  • Separately, on Sunday Hamas released their latest propaganda video showing three hostages: Noa Argamani, 26, Yossi Sharabi, 53, and Itay Svirsky, 38, identifying themselves and asking the Israeli government to bring them home. The short clip ended with the text: “Tomorrow we will inform you of their fate.

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