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Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Key background
  • Hamas is an Islamist Palestinian nationalist movement which currently governs the Gaza Strip. It is proscribed by the UK and in the majority of western countries.
  • Its primary state backers are Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. It is also active in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon.
  • Since seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has continuously launched attacks against Israel and weaponised civilian infrastructure by embedding itself into schools, mosques, and hospitals.
  • Hamas’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel killed 1200, and over 250 hostages were subsequently taken to the Gaza Strip.

Updated December 5, 2023

IDF continues fighting in northern Gaza and advances on Khan Yunis in the south

Gaza Strip: The IDF is continuing to operate against Hamas strongholds in northern Gaza, notably in Jabaliya and Shajaiya.

  • The IDF confirmed instances of “close-quarter combat” as they engaged Hamas fighters inside buildings.
  • IDF infantry units exposed and decommissioned another 30 tunnel shafts.
  • IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Hagari said, “IDF troops are expanding the ground operation towards Hamas’s centres of power in the Gaza Strip. Forces are going from building to building, from tunnel to tunnel, and there is also hand-to-hand combat.”
  • Relating to the ongoing combat, IDF Spokesperson Hagari described operations as, “very significant, precise, and intelligence-based strikes.”
  • Three more soldiers were confirmed to have been killed in combat, taking the total since the ground incursion to 78.
  • In parallel, the IDF continued to make advances south into the outskirts of Khan Yunis.
  • Operations in the south have so far focused primarily on heavy artillery shelling complimented by air strikes against Hamas military infrastructure.
  • 137 hostages remain in Gaza. On Monday, Red Cross President Mirjana Spoljaric Egger visited the Gaza Strip. Israel appreciated her call for the release of hostages. However, she was unable to visit any hostages while in the Strip.
  • Despite IDF advances, there has nevertheless been ongoing rocket fire out of Gaza. In late afternoon yesterday a barrage was directed towards Beer Sheva, launched from east of Khan Yunis. This is the area where IDF forces are approaching, adding to speculation that this may have been their last chance to release those rockets.

The north: Hezbollah yesterday claimed responsibility for at least nine attacks on northern Israel, including in Tel Hai, Shtula, and Kiryat Shmona.

  • IAF combat jets attacked Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon last night in response to rocket fire targeted at the Zarit area in northern Israel. Hezbollah launching sites, terrorist infrastructure, and a military building were struck, while the IDF also fired artillery shells at other sites.
  • As soon as Hamas broke the ceasefire last Friday, Hezbollah resumed its attacks on northern Israel. Amid multiple attacks, 12 people were wounded when an anti-tank missile hit the border town of Beit Hillel on Sunday.
  • Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati met with US Ambassador Dorothy Shea in Beirut on Monday to discuss the situation in southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. Reports have suggested that the US and the French are offering financial incentives to the Lebanese government to act to remove Hezbollah terrorists from the border area. However, Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib yesterday made comments blaming Israel rather than Hezbollah for the post-October 7th flare ups.
  • Despite its constant targeting of Israel since October 7th, Hezbollah has not expanded the conflict in the manner Hamas wished. The assessment remains that the group, and its Iranian paymaster, do not see it as in their interests to engage in all-out war with Israel at this time, and have therefore restricted their attacks so far to close proximity to the border.

Context: Jabaliya and Shajaiya have long been considered some of the strongest Hamas positions. Partly due to their close geographic location and dense urban concentration, close to the Israeli border.

  • In 2014 Operation Protective Edge these were among the first areas attacked by the IDF.  This time the IDF initially circumvented these areas, going first for Gaza City and only afterwards approached these areas from the West.
  • Defence Minister Gallant related to the previous fighting in Shajaiya in 2014 saying, “this time, they aren’t leaving until the complete elimination of all the terror infrastructure located there.”
  • Despite the IDF’s achievements in northern Gaza prior to the temporary ceasefire, the army acknowledges that it will need time to complete the war’s objectives, especially since it is now operating in an already densely populated southern Gaza whose population has been swollen by over 1.5 million Gazans who moved from the north earlier in the war.
  • However, international pressure is likely to grow incrementally for Israel to end its operations. Israel’s most important ally, the US, has continued to support its right to defend itself and to act to secure the total defeat of Hamas.
  • Senior voices have repeatedly warned about the effects of civilian casualties on the sustainability of the operation. US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Sunday that “in this kind of a fight, the centre of gravity is the civilian population. And if you drive them into the arms of the enemy, you replace a tactical victory with a strategic defeat,” he said. “So I have repeatedly made clear to Israel’s leaders that protecting Palestinian civilians in Gaza is both a moral responsibility and strategic imperative.”
  • There is growing concern, too, about the economic effects of a prolonged military campaign with mass mobilisation of Israeli reservists and the costs of war straining Israel’s economy. In that light, there is mounting criticism of Finance Minister Smotrich’s decision, acquiesced to by Netanyahu, to proceed with earmarked coalition funds for ultra-Orthodox education and settlements in the upcoming budget.
  • In today’s Yediot Ahronot, a group of 167 former leaders of the defence establishment, chiefs of staff, police commissioners, Mossad and Shin Bet directors, generals, and commanders write an open letter calling the budget a threat to Israeli security, for diverting some of the funds to a sectoral agenda.

Looking ahead: Later today the war cabinet will meet with families of the hostages as they continue their campaign to pressure the government to reach further understandings and expediate their release. The government’s current approach sees the military campaign as the tool for increasing pressure on Hamas to reach better terms for a potential future deal.

  • In Jabaliya, there is another hospital, like others suspected of doubling up as a Hamas command centre and thought to contain hundreds of Hamas fighters. This is expected to be see heavy fighting in the days ahead. As in similar cases, there is also thought to be a civilian population embedded with the fighters, further complicating IDF manoeuvres.

December 4, 2023

IDF operating across Gaza Strip, RAF to help in search for hostages

Gaza Strip: The IDF has continued to expand its ground operations, targeting Hamas strongholds.

  • In northern Gaza, troops have continued their campaign against Hamas battalions in Jabalya and Shajaiya. They are considered large and powerful Hamas strongholds. In additions, hundreds of Hamas fighters fled there during the pause from other strongholds that the IDF had already conquered.
  • Over Sunday night, the IDF attacked approximately 200 Hamas targets.
  • The ground battles have also began on the outskirts of Khan Yunis in the south.
  • In parallel, the IDF has continued to call on civilians to evacuate areas due to be targeted. The IDF has dropped leaflets, sent text messages  and even called residents’ phones. In addition, the IDF is using an interactive “evacuation map”, which divides the Strip into 2,300 zones, meant to help guide the civilian population to safety.
  • It is unclear to what extent the residents are heeding these calls to evacuate. So far there has been only a slow flow of people leaving Khan Yunis
  • Even in the north, despite significant IDF warning, there remains a civilian population that did not move to the south and stayed in both Jabalya and Shajaiya, posing further challenges.
  • On Sunday night, the IDF announced that the commander of Hamas’s Shati Battalion, Haitham Khuwajari, had been killed. According to the IDF, he ordered Hamas terrorists into Israeli territory on October 7. Khuwajari was also in charge of Hamas’s security activity in Shifa Hospital and was in command of the fighting against IDF troops in the Shati camp.
  • Also over the weekend, IDF combat jets killed the commander of Hamas’s Shajaiya battalion. Wassim Farhad was responsible for sending the Nukhba fighters who raided Kibbutz Nahal Oz and the nearby army outpost on October 7.
  • Speaking on Sunday night, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi said, “as we fought hard and thoroughly in the northern Gaza Strip, so shall we now in the southern Gaza Strip. Yesterday, today, we killed battalion and company commanders, and many operatives, and yesterday morning we began the same course of action in the southern Gaza Strip. It will be just as powerful and will get just as many results, and Hamas’s commanders will find the IDF in a very powerful position everywhere.”
  • This morning, the IDF announced three more soldiers have been killed, taking the total to 74 since the ground incursion began.

Context: The IDF campaign is continuing to target what remains of Hamas military positions in northern Gaza, but also in the south.

  • There is now significant focus of air strikes on Khan Yunis, where it is thought the top Hamas leadership, including Yahya Sinwar, is located.
  • This stage of the war is particularly complex due to the increased population density in Khan Yunis as a result of people having left the north.
  • Khan Yunis is the second largest city in the Strip. Before this conflict it had a population of around 200,000 which is now thought to have doubled.
  • It is further complicated due to the likely location of the remaining hostages.
  • A significant part of the campaign has targeted Hamas’s network of tunnels. On Sunday, the IDF announced that since the beginning of ground operations they have located over “800 shafts.” Adding, “about 500 of the tunnel shafts have been destroyed using a variety of operational methods, including with explosives and blocks. Some of the tunnel shafts connected Hamas’ strategic assets via the underground tunnel network. In addition, many miles of the tunnel routes have been destroyed. The tunnel shafts were located in civilian areas, many of which were near or inside civilian buildings and structures, such as schools, kindergartens, mosques and playgrounds. IDF soldiers located large quantities of weapons inside some of the shafts. These findings are further proof of how Hamas deliberately uses the civilian population and infrastructure as a cover for its terrorist activity inside Gaza.”
  • “After locating the shafts, IDF troops carry out thorough investigations in order to understand the characteristics of the tunnels and then prepare the underground route for its destruction.”
  • Despite a total of 110 returned captives, there remain 137 hostages inside Gaza – two children, nine Thai nationals, 20 Israeli women and 106 men.
  • Based on information garnered from those released, Israel has confirmed that six hostages are dead and their bodies are being held in Gaza. They include Col. Assaf Hamami, the commander of the southern brigade in the Gaza Division, who was killed on October 7 and his body taken to Gaza. He is the third division commander killed that day.
  • During the pause, Israel facilitated the entrance of over 1,200 trucks of aid, around 200 day. Despite a resumption of fighting, 55 trucks of food and medical supplies entered on Sunday.
  • Despite IDF advances, as a result of the pause Hamas were able to replenish rocket supplies and have continued to fire on the Israeli home front. Over 10,000 rockets have been fired out of Gaza since October 7.

Northern front:  As soon as Hamas broke the ceasefire in the south on Friday morning, so Hezbollah resumed their strikes in the north.

  • On Sunday, there were several attacks including close to Bet Hillel about four km from the Lebanon border with 11 people reported injured.
  • Again, there was sustained mortar fire towards Mount Dov and other areas close to the border. The IDF responded by attacking Hezbollah positions on the Lebanese side.
  • There are continued diplomatic efforts led by the US and France to financially induce the Lebanese government to act to move Hezbollah fighters away from the border.

Looking ahead: The British Royal Air Force will soon begin to conduct surveillance flights over Gaza to help Israel locate hostages. According to the MOD, “surveillance aircraft will be unarmed, do not have a combat role, and will be tasked solely to locate hostages. Only information relating to hostage rescue will be passed to the relevant authorities responsible for hostage rescue.”

  • The IDF estimates that it will take another 10 days to complete this second stage of the war in the northern Gaza Strip.
  • The campaign in the south will take longer, but once the north is subdued it will free up additional forces.
  • Kan News revealed a recording of Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar saying that Israel’s objective is to kill the Hamas leaders, even in “Lebanon, Qatar and in Turkey. It will take years, but it is our generation’s mission, our Munich.” (Munich is a reference of the killing of 11 Israeli athletes at the Munich Olympics in 1972. It took almost 20 years to target all the Palestinian terrorists responsible).

December 1, 2023

Hamas rocket fire resumes, ending seven day pause

What’s happened: As of midday local time, thirty rockets have been fired – initially towards the Gaza periphery, before extending towards Ashkelon.

  • In response, the IDF also renewed operations, both on the ground in northern Gaza and from the air, with strikes targeting Hamas positions in Khan Yunis and Rafah in the south.
  • Palestinian sources are reporting fatalities including a cell firing anti-tank missiles on an IDF position in northern Gaza, and as a result of airstrikes in the south.
  • Before the fighting resumed, eight hostages were released yesterday as part of the seventh round. In exchange, Israel released 30 prisoners.
  • The eight hostages released were named, four were from Kibbutz Nir Oz; Shani Goren, 29, Nili Margalit 41, Ilana Gritzewsky Kimchi 30 and Sapir Cohen 29.
  • Bilal Zaidna, 18, and her brother Aisha, 17, who were working in Kibbutz Holit’s cowshed when they were captured, were also released, though their father and brother are still missing.
  • Also released earlier in the day were Mia Shem 21, from Modiin, kidnapped from the Nova festival, and Amit Soussana, 40, from Kibbutz Kfar Aza.
  • According to the Qataris, the two hostages with dual Israeli-Russian citizenship that were released on Wednesday were considered part of the seventh phase, allowing Israel to insist on the equation of receiving at least 10 in each round.
  • Yesterday US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in Israel, meeting the leadership and attending the security cabinet, reinforcing the US position that, “Hamas cannot remain in control of Gaza.  It cannot retain the capacity to repeat that carnage.”
  • However, Channel 12 News reported on leaked transcripts from the security cabinet meeting, highlighting disagreements:
    • Blinken warned, “you can’t operate in southern Gaza in the way you did in the north… be more accurate in the attacks, not hit UN facilities, and ensure that there are enough protected areas.”
    • IDF Chief of Staff Halevi responded, “we follow a number of principles, proportionality, distinction, and the laws of war. There were instances where we attacked on the basis of those principles, and instances where we decided not to attack, because we waited for a better opportunity.”
    • Defence Minister Gallant added that, “the goal is dismantling Hamas, even if it takes months.”
    • Blinken replied, “I don’t think you have the credit for that.”
  • At a later press conference Blinken elaborated on his expectations, “taking more effective steps to protect the lives of civilians, including by clearly and precisely designating areas and places in southern and central Gaza where they can be safe and out of the line of fire. It means avoiding further significant displacement of civilians inside of Gaza. It means avoiding damage to life-critical infrastructure, like hospitals, like power stations, like water facilities. And it means giving civilians who’ve been displaced to southern Gaza the choice to return to the north as soon as conditions permit. There must be no enduring internal displacement.”
  • Earlier, in their meeting Defence Minister Gallant reaffirmed, “we are going to fight Hamas until we prevail, no matter how long it takes.”

Context: With the completion of the seventh day of a pause, Israel has managed to extract 104 hostages – 80 Israelis and 24 foreign nationals. However, 143 hostages remain in captivity.

  • Talks broke down last night when Hamas claimed they only had 7 hostages and 3 bodies to exchange under the present deal. Israel had long anticipated Hamas was trying to buy more time and reduce the price. Israel has insisted it will not exchange live prisoners for hostages’ bodies.
  • As part of Hamas’s ongoing psychological warfare, last night they released another hostage video. This time a recording of Yarden Beibas, who was told his wife and two children Ariel, 4, and Kfir, 9 months (when captured), were all dead. Their death has not been confirmed on the Israeli side.
  • The Beibas mother and children, including the youngest hostage, who were pictured being kidnapped have become a symbol of the war, both in terms of the depth of the Israel’s failure to protect their citizens as well as the extent of Hamas’s brutality.
  • The overwhelming majority of the remaining hostages are men, including injured and elderly, and male and female soldiers, for which Hamas are expected to demand a higher price for their return.
  • As fighting resumes, there is heighted alert that Hamas used the pause to replenish munitions and other supplies, reorganise, as well as potentially lay traps and plant more explosives.
  • The IDF were also able to give troops some leave and review their own battle plans.
  • There is an expectation that Israel will need to launch a ground incursion into the south, particularly into Khan Yunis and Rafah. There is speculation that the Hamas senior leadership are in Khan Yunis, as well as significant remnants of their fighting force, making the city a crucial battleground. However they will need to employ different tactics due to the even higher population density.
  • To compound this, Hamas have deliberately encouraged Gazans from the north to populate public buildings in Khan Yunis instead of the designated safe zone on the southern coast.
  • An operation is Rafah is also viewed as militarily essential to prevent weapons smuggling routes being reopened after the war is over. Rafah is also a sensitive location, due to its proximity to Egypt.
  • Blinken’s fourth visit to Israel and his attendance at the security cabinet attests to the continued close coordination between the US and Israel. However, there are clearly gaps in their views of how the war should be prosecuted.
  • There was also discussion in the cabinet meeting about the day after. Blinken reportedly said, “you don’t want the Palestinian Authority on the day after. We understand that. The best way to kill an idea is to bring a better idea. The other states in the region need to know what you are planning.”
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu responded, “as long as I’m sitting in this chair, the Palestinian Authority, which supports, educates and finances terror, will not rule Gaza on the day after Hamas.”
  • On a visit to the UAE today, Israeli President Herzog met with King Charles and asked him “to use all his diplomatic clout to advance efforts to bring the kidnapped daughters and sons back home.”

Other fronts: There is ongoing concern over growing motivation to carry out terror attacks from other areas, as Hamas took responsibility for Thursday’s shooting attack at the entrance of Jerusalem.

  • A fourth victim was announced as 38 year old Yuval Doron Kastelman. He was driving into Jerusalem, left his car and helped kill both terrorists, before then being mistakenly shot by soldiers. Video footage shows Kastelman kneeling after letting go of his pistol and raising his hands. The soldiers thought he was a terrorist and shot him. Six other people were wounded in the attack.
  • Police forces raided the home of the two terrorists, brothers from Tzur Bahar in East Jerusalem, identified with Hamas, and who were previously imprisoned in Israel.
  • Also on Thursday, two IDF reservists were lightly wounded in a car ramming attack in the Jordan Valley. The assailant was shot.
  • Israel is also gearing up for the possible resumption of attacks from Hezbollah and Palestinian terror groups operating from southern Lebanon. That front remained quiet during the week long pause, with concern that attacks could now resume imminently.
  • In the south, the Houthis did not abide by the pause. Again on Wednesday, A US navy vessel intercepted an Iranian drone in the Red Sea that took off from an area controlled by the Houthis in Yemen.

Looking ahead: Whilst the fighting has resumed, it is also anticipated that negotiations will continue in parallel in order to explore a new deal to release the remaining hostages. Israel hopes that a combination of military pressure and diplomacy will yield further results.

  • A special investigations unit will begin collect testimonies, intelligence and forensic evidence from the hostage. The evidence will help Israel prosecute terrorists who participated in the massacre and the kidnappings and will provide further proof of Hamas’s war crimes.

November 30, 2023

Three killed in Jerusalem terror attack as hostage releases continue

Jerusalem terror attack: Three people were killed, including a 24-year-old woman, a 60-year-old woman, and a 73-year-old man in a deadly shooting attack this morning at a bus stop at the entrance to Jerusalem. Six further people were injured, two of whom are in serious condition.

  • One of the victims was named by both Israeli chief rabbis as Ashdod rabbinical judge Elimelech Wasserman.
  • Two terrorists, one with an M-16, the second a handgun, opened fire towards civilians at the bus station. Both were swiftly killed by security forces and an armed civilian who were close by, preventing further victims.
  • The attackers were named as brothers Murad Namr, 38, and Ibrahim Namr, 30, from East Jerusalem. According to the Shin Bet, both were Hamas members and previously jailed for terror activity. Murad was in prison from 2010 to 2020 for planning terror attacks and Ibrahim was jailed in 2014 for undisclosed terror activity.
  • CCTV footage (here) captured the terrorists arrived by car from East Jerusalem and police are checking the area to see if anyone else was involved. Searches of the terrorists’ vehicle revealed large amounts of ammunition.
  • Minister Gantz said: “this terror attack is further proof of our obligation to continue to fight with strength and determination against murderous terrorism, which threatens our citizens. In Jerusalem, Gaza, in Judea and Samaria, and everywhere.”

Pause in fighting extended againThe truce between Israel and Hamas in Gaza was set to expire at 7am this morning, but was extended by a day when an updated list of hostages set to be freed today was accepted by Israel.

  • It reportedly comprised only eight hostages — six women and two children. Other reports suggest that three bodies of Israeli abductees will also be returned.
  • An initial list given by Hamas including seven women and children, as well as three bodies, was rejected by Israel rejected as insufficient.
  • An IDF statement said that “in light of the mediators’ efforts to continue the process of releasing the hostages and subject to the terms of the agreement, the ceasefire will continue.”
  • Sixteen people were released by Hamas on Wednesday night. These included 12 Israelis — five of them teens — and four Thais. Two Israeli-Russian women were released as a “gesture” to Russian President Putin.
  • US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Israel last night for his third visit since Hamas’s October 7 attack.
  • Blinken is also expected to visit the West Bank and the United Arab Emirates, according to a State Department statement on Monday. Washington is pushing to allow further into the Gaza Strip and to secure the release of all the hostages being held captive by Hamas.
  • Israeli troops killed two senior terror operatives in the Jenin refugee camp yesterday. Muhammad Zubeidi was a senior Palestinian Islamic Jihad operative in the Jenin camp while Hussam Hanoun was a local operative. The Shin Bet said that Zubeida had been involved in a terror attack near the West Bank settlement of Hermesh in which an Israeli, Meir Tamari, was killed.

Context: The police will be concerned that with the release of over 200 Palestinian prisoners, including unrepentant terrorists, there could come an increase of terror attacks.

  • The same bus stop was the scene of a devastating terror attack almost exactly a year ago.
  • CIA chief Bill Burns and head of the Mossad David Barnea have held meetings with senior officials in Qatar to expand the pool of hostages eligible for release in conjunction with further extending the pause.
  • The number of hostages freed over the last week is 97 — 73 Israelis and 24 foreign nationals, mostly Thai agricultural workers. The IDF estimates 159 hostages remain in Gaza, including baby Kfir and toddler Ariel Bibas, 10-months and  4-years-old, as well as siblings Aisha and Bilal Ziyadne.
  • On Wednesday Hamas said that Kfir, Ariel and their mother Shiri, had been killed, a claim that the IDF is currently investigating.
  • Further details have emerged of the violent treatment to which some of the hostages have been subjected by their captors. “I was with Israelis, and there were guards all the time. The Jews who were with me were treated more harshly. Sometimes they were beaten with electrical cables,” said a recently released Thai worker.
  • The Israeli Defence Ministry this morning announced that the total number of military and security personnel injured since the beginning of the war stands at 2,005. 287 are currently hospitalsied, 28 in serious condition.
  • Since October 7, Israeli troops have arrested approximately 2,000 wanted Palestinians across the West Bank, including more than 1,100 affiliated with Hamas. The Palestinian Authority health ministry has said that around 200 West Bank Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces, most of them armed men involved in clashes with the IDF.

Looking ahead: The extension to the pause in fighting will last through the day.

  • Israel continues to emphasise that the war will continue. At a meeting with communities from the Gaza envelope yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu said: “We saw that the ground maneuver and the diplomatic pressure were yielding us the outcome [we wanted], but we won’t concede the objective of destroying them…We’ve got a major struggle here. We won’t let it (the PA) return. We have a sacred duty to restore security. Everything is meaningless unless we restore security. We’ll destroy Hamas, and there won’t be any option for any other actor of that kind to rule Gaza. We’ll have security control in the Gaza Strip.”
  • During a meeting with President Herzog, Blinken said he “looked forward to detailed conversations with the government of Israel about the way ahead in Gaza.” American pressure on Israel has been mounting with a senior American official telling Israeli officials: “You’ve displaced a million Gazans. How are you making sure you don’t kill them?”

November 29, 2023

More hostages released, negotiations to extend deal

  • Those released included three members of the Leimberg family, Gabriela Leimberg (59), Mia Leimberg (17), Clara Marman (63).
  • In addition, seven Israeli women – Tamar Metzger (78), Ditza Heiman (84), Noralin Babadila (60), Ada Sagi (75), Ofelia Adit Roitman (77), Rimon Kirsht (36), Meirav Tal (53).
  • Images showed the Israeli captives escorted by terrorists from both Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad before they were handed over to the Red Cross.
  • Similar to previous releases, those released were transferred to Israeli hospitals where they were evaluated physically and mentally and reunited with their families.
  • Yesterday, Hamas breached the agreed ceasefire, according to the IDF: “three explosive devices were detonated adjacent to IDF troops in two different locations in the northern Gaza Strip, violating the framework of the operational pause. In one of the locations, terrorists also opened fire at the troops, who responded with fire. A number of soldiers were lightly injured during the incidents. In both incidents, the troops were located in positions as per the framework of the operational pause.”
  • In parallel, negotiations resumed in Qatar to extend the current arrangement between Israel and Hamas. The director of Mossad David Barnea held talks alongside head of Egyptian intelligence Abbas Kamel, CIA Director William Burns, the Qatari prime minister and their head of intelligence.

Context: So far 61 Israelis and 20 foreign nationals have been released since last Friday. In addition, prior to the pause four were released and one was rescued. The bodies of two hostages were also recovered inside Gaza. There remain an estimated 146 in captivity, with a further ten expected to be released later today.

  • According to Yediot Ahronot, and based on Israeli military intelligence, 5,300 Hamas operatives have been killed. This included three Hamas brigade commanders, 14 battalion commanders and dozens of company commanders. Overall, Israel estimate that around 15,000 Palestinians have been killed in total.
  • In the latest rounds of negotiations, the Egyptian, Kamal Abbas, joined the US and Israeli officials in Qatar. It is hoped having them all in the room together (not Hamas) will facilitate a smoother, more efficient process.
  • Part of the speculation around the talks includes the idea that the Qataris and Egyptians are proposing a deal that might end the war and free all of the remaining Israeli hostages. In exchange the Gaza Strip would be demilitarised and Israel will release thousands of Palestinian terrorists. Israel would also need to agree not to target senior Hamas officials. One option could see them leave Gaza, similar to Arafat leaving Lebanon in 1982.
  • While more often it is the mediator that travels in order to facilitate dialogue, in this instance all the parties are prepared to travel to Qatar. This can partly be explained by the fact that Qatar is expected to pay a significant portion of the required funds to rehabilitate Gaza the day after. This also provides a major challenge, as Qatar still supports the continued rule of Hamas, placing them squarely at odds with the Israeli agenda, supported so far by the US.
  • The Israel consensus remains that this is a pause and fighting will resume in order to end Hamas’s control of the Strip and their ability to launch attacks in the future.
  • Last night, White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said the US would, “not be able to support further Israeli military operations in the southern Gaza Strip before Israel can guarantee that it would not displace civilians.”
  • The IDF is using the pause in fighting to review operational performances and learn lessons ahead of the anticipated resumption of fighting.
  • More details have emerged of the conditions in which the hostages were held. Some were treated reasonably, whilst others were subjected to extensive violence; tied up for hours and subjected to humiliation and beaten. They were denied food and water for long periods of time and they were not allowed to use the lavatory. (More details in Israeli media summary below).

Looking ahead: US sources suggest that there are still women and children held captive that could allow for an additional two day extension under the existing framework. AFP claim there is agreement for an additional four days.

  • Both Prime Minister Netanyahu and Minister Benny Gantz have again publicly committed to renew the military campaign. Netanyahu said, “we are committed to completing our missions, freeing all the hostages, destroying that terror organisation above ground and below ground and, obviously, that Gaza not revert to what it was and that it not pose a threat to the State of Israel.”
  • The security cabinet will convene this evening to discuss prolonging the pause by a number of days.

November 28, 2023

Pause in fighting extended, as fourth group of hostages released     

What happened: 11 Israeli hostages, all children and mothers, and 6 Thai nationals, were released yesterday in the fourth group of hostages released so far. They were taken to Ichilov Hospital in Tel Aviv, where doctors announced that all were in stable condition.

  • The release comprised five families from Kibbutz Nir Oz, all of whose fathers remained held hostage in the Gaza Strip.
  • In line with the deal reached with Hamas, 33 Palestinian prisoners were released by Israel yesterday.
  • The hostage release was delayed due to Hamas breaking terms of the agreement by initially excluding two mothers from the list, despite commitments not to separate mothers and children. This included the exclusion of a mother of 3-year-old twins (whose father remains captive).
  • Israel insisted the mothers return with the children, and with US pressure (reportedly from President Biden himself), and with backing from Qatar and Egypt who also supported the Israeli position, Hamas eventually relented.
  • Before the release, the Israeli cabinet authorised an agreement between Israel and Hamas extending the pause in fighting for a further two days, starting tomorrow, with 10 Israeli hostages set to be released each day and 60 further Palestinian prisoners released.

Context: In the second round of releases, Hamas reneged on an agreement that all children released would be accompanied by their mothers. 12-year-old Hila Rotem was released without her mother Raya, despite saying after her release that she had been held alongside her mother throughout her period in captivity, and separated only two days before her scheduled release.

  • The Bibas family – 9-month-old Kfir, his 4-year-old brother Ariel, and parents Yarden, 34, and Shiri, 32 – had been widely expected to be part of the release, but were not.
  • The family is thought to have been kidnapped by Hamas on October 7th before being transferred to another group. They are currently being held in the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis.
  • Hostage negotiations are complex and elongated due to the need to pass on messages through a series of mediators.
  • On this occasion, Israel also held up the delivery of the daily entrance of 200 trucks of aid, only allowing it to enter in the evening, to correspond with the release.
  • More details have emerged from some of the other captives. They include one woman who said that early on in the war she met Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar who told her in fluent Hebrew that they were in the safest place (in an underground tunnel) and would not be harmed.
  • Sinwar learnt Hebrew while serving five life sentences in Israeli prison. He was one of the most prominent terrorists released in the deal to free Gilad Shalit in 2011.  This is being interpreted in Israel as the latest example of Sinwar’s sadism.
  • In another instance, Hamas published a “thank you letter” written by Danielle Aloni to her captors, a day before she was released with her daughter. Hebrew readers were quick to notice clear language that native Israelis would never use, and seen as further proof of Hamas looking to cleanse its image.
  • Roni Krivoi, a 25 year old dual Israeli-Russian citizen was released as part of a Hamas goodwill gesture towards President Putin. His family relayed that in one of the bombings, he managed to escape and survived for four days alone in Gaza, before he was captured by Gazans and returned to Hamas.
  • Hamas is thought to be keen to prolong the ceasefire beyond the additional two days so far agreed and is reportedly prepared to discuss the release of men and soldiers, albeit under different equation to the women, children and elderly.
  • This places Israel in a dilemma over the price of releasing terrorists and murders from prison in exchange.
  • Divisions among the top Israeli echelons remain regarding the wisdom of agreeing to an extension to the pause in fighting. Defence Minister Gallant and some in the IDF leadership are known to favour a quicker return to the fighting. Gallant’s coalition partners Gantz and Eisenkot, along with the intelligence leadership, have favoured the pause to release hostages.
  • Despite impressive IDF performance, Hamas remains in place in parts of the northern Gaza Strip such as Sajaiya, Jabalya and parts of Rimal. Israeli forces will have to clear these areas of Hamas forces, likely reinforced during the pause, before tackling the southern part of the Strip.
  • Operations in the south are set to be complicated, involving dense urban warfare further compounded by the movement south of hundreds of thousands of northern Gazans escaping the earlier fighting in the north.
  • Adding to the complex calculations of military planners, there still remains an estimated 163 hostages being held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Looking ahead: Israel has received the list of names for tomorrow’s scheduled release. The list is being reviewed and families of the hostages notified.

  • US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is set to return to the region this week, in his third trip since October 7th, with the US thought to be keen to extend the pause even further.
  • Despite concerns that it will be difficult to restart fighting after a pause set to last a minimum of four days, Israel insists it will resume its operation.

November 27, 2023

Third group of hostages released as potential ceasefire extension discussed

What happened: A third group of hostages, comprising 14 Israelis and three Thai nationals were freed from Hamas captivity in the Gaza Strip yesterday evening.

  • The Israelis included nine children, two mothers, two more women, and one man, Roni Krivoi, with Russian-Israeli citizenship. Ten of those freed were from Kfar Aza.
  • One of the Israelis, 84-year-old Elma Avraham, is unconscious and on a respirator with her condition termed “unstable”. Avraham was evacuated directly from Gaza to Soroka by helicopter.
  • Another Israeli released is Avigail Idan, the 4-year-old American-Israeli citizen from Kibbutz Kfar Aza whose parents were murdered on October 7th.
  • Israel released 39 convicted Palestinian women and minors from prison and allowed 200 trucks to transport into the Gaza Strip.
  • Discussions continue over the possibility of extending the agreement to free more Israeli hostages. After speaking with US President Biden, PM Netanyahu said “there is a plan that says it is possible to free, every extra day, another ten hostages. That is welcome. In the same breath, I also told the president, we will return, with our full might, to achieve our objectives: Hamas’s annihilation, and ensure that Gaza not revert to being what it was, and of course, to free all of our hostages.”
  • US President Biden expressed his support for extending the pause.  “That’s my goal, that’s our goal,” he said, “to keep this pause going beyond tomorrow so that we can continue to see more hostages come out and surge more humanitarian relief to those in need in Gaza.”
  • Hamas confirmed the deaths of five senior commanders who were targeted by Israel during the fighting in Gaza. These include: Ahmed Ghandour, the commander of its northern Gaza brigade; Ayman Siam, the head of Hamas’s rocket firing array; and Wael Rajab and Raafat Salman. Ghandour had previously survived several assassination attempts and was designated as an international terrorist by the US State Department in 2017 and also involved in the abduction of Gilad Shalit in 2006.
  • An American warship freed the tanker owned by Eyal Ofer that was boarded by five Houthi terrorists off the coast of Yemen. Fox News reported that the tanker crew locked themselves in a safe room and the terrorists were unable to break into it. American troops seized control of the tanker and arrested the terrorists.
  • The US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced early on Monday that two ballistic missiles had been launched from areas in Yemen controlled by Houthi rebels towards an American destroyer in the Gulf of Aden.
  • Syrian media report Israeli airstrikes against Damascus International Airport and other targets near the capital. The pro-government Sham FM radio says the runway at the airport was hit, among other targets.

Context: As part of the agreement with Hamas, Israel agreed to release 150 Palestinian women and minors who were sentenced to prison terms, and allow hundreds of trucks to transport and fuel into the Gaza Strip. In exchange Hamas undertook to release 30 children and 20 women.

  • Following the release of this third group of hostages, there are believed to be approximately 180 hostages held by Hamas, including 18 children (eight girls and 10 boys) and 43 women.
  • Intensive talks have taken place in an effort to extend the deal by another few days, facilitated by the US, Egypt, and Qatar, attended by Mossad Director David Barnea, Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar and Maj. Gen. (res.) Nitzan Alon, who is tasked with overseeing Israel’s hostage release efforts.
  • The original agreement stipulated that it could be extended under the following terms: for every ten Israeli hostages released by Hamas, Israel would pause its fighting for an additional 24 hours; an additional three Palestinian prisoners would be released for every one freed Israeli hostage, and will continue to be allowed to flow into Gaza.
  • The Israeli cabinet approved in advance potentially releasing 300 Palestinian security prisoners so as to facilitate the smooth extension of the current arrangement, effectively allowing for a five-day extension of the pause in fighting without having to convene the cabinet to approve an additional prisoner release.
  • While Israel is discussing extending the agreement, officials have emphasised that the war against Hamas will continue once the pause is over.
  • On Saturday, Defence Minister Gallant, visiting troops in Gaza, vowed that Israel would not leave Gaza until all the captives are returned and confirmed additional attack plans in the days following the ceasefire.
  • IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said the current pause was being used to study adding that the IDF would “revert immediately upon the end of the ceasefire to attacking Gaza, to manoeuvring in Gaza. We’ll do that both in order to dismantle Hamas and to create very great pressure to bring home as quickly as possible as many hostages as possible.”
  • With the IDF having made substantial gains in northern Gaza, before the truce began on Friday, it had surrounded Jabalya, a remaining northern Hamas stronghold, but hadn’t yet entered it. They are widely expected to do so as soon as the truce ends. The army is determined to eventually begin operations in southern Gaza as well.
  • Israel’s assessment is that senior Hamas officials still control the group’s military operations and haven’t lost contact with their troops in the field.

Looking ahead: A fourth and final (unless the agreement is extended) group of hostages are set to be released today.

  • The Prime Minister’s Office says “discussions” are ongoing regarding a list of Gaza hostages to be released today that was received overnight and is being “evaluated.”
  • Israeli security officials are optimistic about the possibility that the pause in fighting might be extended by a number of days so as to facilitate the release of additional hostages being held by Hamas, potentially including older Israeli men.
  • Israel is prioritising freeing as many hostages as possible in the current round, on the working assumption that it will be hard to stop the war again within a short amount of time.

November 26, 2023

Second batch of hostages released

Hostages deal: After several tense hours, the second batch of hostages were eventually released late Saturday night.

  • 13 Israeli citizens and four Thai nationals were released.
  • Of the Israelis, eight were children. 12 of the hostages were from Kibbutz Be’eri and one was kidnapped from the Nova music festival.
  • On Friday afternoon, the first batch of 13 Israelis (12 of them from Kibbutz Nir Oz) were released along with 11 foreigners, ten Thai citizens that worked in the Kibbutzim and one hostage from the Philippines who was a carer for an elderly man on Kibbutz Nir Oz, killed by Hamas terrorists on October 7.
  • Last night, the hostages were handed over to the Red Cross who took them into Egypt and then handed them over to Israeli officials. They were then taken to the Kerem Shalom crossing into Israel, and onto to an Air Force base to undergo a short medical checkup. They were then flown to other medical facilities in the centre of country and reunited with their families.
  • In parallel, Israel has released two batches of Palestinian prisoners, 39 each day. All the released prisoners were female or juvenile offenders, imprisoned on terror offences, and charges of attempted murder.

West Bank: Reports from the West Bank say that five Palestinians have been killed in a strike by an IDF unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) in Jenin. A sixth Palestinian was killed in the Nablus area.

  • In the ongoing operations in Jenin, troops arrested Osama Bani Fadl, the terrorist who murdered Shai Nigaker and his son Aviad Nir in a shooting attack in Huwara three months ago.
  • A senior Israeli security official said, “we are applying intense pressure with a series of operations not seen in the region for years. The armed terror group in the Jenin refugee camp will disband and be neutralised.”
  • Elsewhere in the West Bank, Palestinian militants affiliated with Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade executed two men accused of collaborating with Israel in the city of Tulkarem on Friday night. The men were identified as Hamza Mubarak, 31, and Azam Juabra, 29.
  • Crowds stomped on their bodies and the militants attempted to hang them from an electrical tower before ultimately throwing them over the walls of a UN school.

Threat from Yemen: There were reports early evening yesterday of aerial explosions and air defence activity over Eilat, in southern Israel.

  • The IDF confirmed that two “suspicious aerial targets” were intercepted over the Red Sea, and that “the possibility that this is a false identification is being investigated.”
  • Eilat has come under attempted rocket fire from the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and from on multiple occasions since October 7th.

Context: The delay in the release of the second batch has largely been interpreted as a Hamas power play, and proof that they are still in control in Gaza.

  • That Hamas would jeopardise the pause in the fighting by failing to bide by the terms of the hostage release is being interpreted by some as an indication that its state of desperation has been exaggerated.
  • During the afternoon, Hamas had claimed that Israel had not allowed the agreed amount of aid trucks to enter into Gaza, this claim was rejected by the Egyptians and the Red Cross that monitored their entry.
  • Hamas also claimed that a proportion of the trucks must also reach the northern part of the Strip. International mediators acknowledged that this happened, though it should be noted that Israel is not present in the southern half, so not in control of truck movements there.
  • Hamas also disputed the priority order of the prisoners released, claiming they had expected the longest serving prisoners to be released first.
  • Hamas flags were prominently seen in celebrations of the release of the Palestinian prisoners, despite Hamas being outlawed in the West Bank as opponents of the ruling Palestinian Authority.
  • On the Israeli side, one of the children was released, but without her mother. This is a breach of the agreement, that Israel had insisted mothers and their children would not be separated.
  • There remains concern that Hamas will try further attempts to manipulate the agreements.
  • One of the released hostages, 9-year-old Emily Hand, has dual Israeli-Irish citizenship. Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar has been widely criticised in Israel for his comment that “an innocent child who was lost has now been found and returned, and we breathe a massive sigh of relief.”
  • Although Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that the deal would also include Red Cross representatives visiting all those that remain in captivity, this has not yet happened. Israeli commentators are speculating whether this had been agreed by Hamas or is just wishful thinking on the Israeli side.
  • If the Red Cross were to be given access, this would potentially provide valuable intel on the hostages’ condition and locations.

Looking ahead: The third batch of released hostages are expected to be released this afternoon.

  • Negotiators are still working to see if more hostages can be released beyond the forth batch and if the pause in fighting can be extended for another day or two.
  • Amid concerns that it will be difficult to restart fighting after a pause which is set to last a minimum of four days but which could last much longer if more hostages are released, Israel insists it will resume its operation.
  • IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said “the pause we have now—we’re using it to study, we’re using it to better prepare our capabilities and also to rest a bit. And we’ll revert immediately upon the end of the ceasefire to attacking Gaza, to manoeuvring in Gaza. We’ll do that both in order to dismantle Hamas and to create very great pressure to bring home as quickly as possible as many hostages as possible.”

November 24, 2023

Temporary ceasefire begins, as Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron shows solidarity     

What’s happened: The temporary ceasefire came into effect at 0500 UK time this morning.

  • Fifteen minutes in, a single rocket was fired out of Gaza, which was intercepted by the Iron Dome missile defence. Israel has not responded and since then there has been quiet.
  • Foreign Secretary Lord David Cameron was in Israel yesterday. In his meeting with President Herzog, Cameron explained his motivation behind the visit, “I wanted to come, and I wanted to go to the south of the country to see for myself some of the horrific acts that were carried out by Hamas, by these terrorists when they came into your country. I went to Kibbutz Be’eri and I won’t forget what I saw. It makes a very deep impression, and it’s important that people know that.”
  • Cameron added, “you have our support. We stand with the people of Israel at this difficult time.”
  • He continued, “of course, all hostages must come out because hostage taking is immoral, and wrong and a terrorist tactic. And some of them are British hostages – so we have a strong interest with you. But I think this humanitarian pause is also an opportunity to get aid into Gaza. And we want to help you with that by increasing the aid we send by helping with the logistics, by helping in any way that we can. I think it is vitally important that we demonstrate to the Palestinian people, to the world, that we want to help. Those people need food, they need water, they need medicine. They need fuel, because it’s essential to be able to get the aid around Gaza to work desalination plants, to make sure that hospitals can run. So I think there’s a real opportunity to use this pause to help deliver that, and I hope that can go ahead.”
  • Herzog also related to the humanitarian situation in Gaza, noting, “we are very much aware… we are taking major steps in order to alleviate, to increase the support and the assistance that goes to the citizens of Gaza. Rest assured that we are committed to whatever is necessary, according to the basic rules of international humanitarian law.”
  • Cameron also met Prime Minister Netanyahu who told him that after the ceasefire, Israel would continue to “eradicate Hamas,” explaining, “because Hamas has already promised that they will do this again and again and again. They’re a genocidal terrorist cult. There’s no hope for peace between Israel and the Palestinians, between Israel and the Arab states, if we don’t eradicate this murderous movement that threatens the future of all of us.”
  • Netanyahu continued “it’s a larger battle of civilisation against barbarism… Israel sustained proportionately twenty 9/11s. It’s as though 50,000 Americans were slaughtered in a single day and 10,000 were held hostage, including a nine-month-old baby. He can’t walk, he can’t talk, he’s a hostage. What kind of people do this? The answer is these are not people; these are monsters. These monsters have to go. They’ll go. We’ll pursue the battle until that goal is achieved, and we give a different future for Gaza and for us.”
  • Earlier in the day, whilst accompanying Cameron in Kibbutz Be’eri, Foreign Minister Eli Cohen asked him, as a member of the UN Security Council, “to act on the implementation of Resolution 1701 in order to prevent the expansion of the war to the northern region.”
  • This morning, as part of the humanitarian pause, 200 trucks are entering Gaza, including four diesel tanks (130,000 litres of fuel) and four with cooking gas.

Context: The next few hours will be fraught as Israel waits to see if Hamas will honour its commitment to release the first batch of 13 hostages, children and mothers, at 1400 UK time.

  • Yesterday, the IDF ground operation continued in northern Gaza. Fighting focused on the remaining pockets of Hamas military forces in Jabalya, Nusseirat and Beit Lahiya.
  • In Jabalya, troops exposed more examples of terror infrastructure embedded within civilian population, including large quantities of weapons found under children’s beds and six more tunnel shafts, including one inside a Mosque.
  • Shortly before the ceasefire came into effect the IDF destroyed the section of tunnel found underneath Shifa hospital.
  • Israel will try to extract as many hostages as possible through the current mechanism, but sees it as essential to then return to fighting so as to complete the mission and remove Hamas from power. It will be impossible to do this without an operation in southern Gaza.
  • Last night, the Israeli Air Force carried out a significant airstrike in southern Gaza, killing the commander of Hamas’s naval force in Khan Yunis, Amir Abu Jalala, along with another fighter from the naval force. Jalala was responsible for numerous infiltration attempts via the sea.
  • The IDF also targeted Hamas weapons warehouses, tunnels, training areas and lookout positions.
  • In the north, yesterday saw particularly heavy fire from Hezbollah, with over 50 rockets fired into northern Israel.
  • The IDF retaliated by attacking numerous Hezbollah targets, including two cells responsible for the rocket fire.
  • Lebanese sources have claimed that Hezbollah will also abide by the ceasefire, and so far this morning the north has remained quiet. However, Israel has not committed to a cessation in the north.

Looking ahead: At 1400 UK time today, the first 13 hostages are expected to be handed over to the IDF via the Red Cross.

  • They will be taken to an isolated medical compound, to be reunited with their family and medically assessed.
  • If the deal goes to plan, 50 hostages are due to be released over the next four days, whilst Israel will release 150 female and teenage Palestinian prisoners.
  • Israel expects every day to receive a list of those to be released the following day.
  • The talks via US and Qatari mediation are expected to continue, with the aim of extending the pause in fighting for an extra day for each additional 10 hostages released

November 23, 2023

Hostage release delayed, heavy rocket fire from the north

Hostages: The anticipated ceasefire to allow for the release of Israeli hostages has been delayed until tomorrow morning at the earliest.

  • National Security Council Director Tzahi Hanegbi announced the holdup shortly after midnight last night, with Israeli officials briefing that “the delay isn’t substantive, but technical… We expect that the deal will be implemented and that this is a last-minute delay.”
  • Mossad Director David Barnea and Maj. Gen. (res.) Nitzan Alon, in Qatar to finalise the agreement, discovered “holes” in a few of the clauses.
  • According to Israeli sources, although a list of names has been submitted, the delay is because Hamas has not confirmed their health status. In addition, according to the terms of agreement, Hamas is expected to release the names of each batch to be freed the night before.
  • Qatari officials said that talks were “progressing positively” and to expect an announcement on timings in the next hours.
  • Diego Engelbert, whose sister Karina, brother-in-law Ronen and their daughters Mika and Yuval are hostages in Gaza said of the delay: “These ups and downs are killing us. We were holding onto a ray of hope and once again it’s gone — this is part of the psychological terror we go through on a daily basis.”

Palestinian Prisoners: In return for 50 hostages Israel has agreed to release 150 Palestinian prisoners.

  • According to the provisions of the agreement. Hamas can extend the pause in fighting by a an extra day for every additional 10 hostages released, beyond the initial 50. In that scenario, Israeli will in turn release an additional 30 prisoners.
  • Therefore Israel has released a list of 300 prisoners eligible for the release, that meet the agreed criteria, male prisoners under the age of 18 and female prisoners, all of whom have not committed murder. Although many faced charges of attempted murder.
  • Many of the prisoner committed stabbing attacks, or attempted stabbings. Others carried out car-ramming attacks or helped prepare explosive devises. One 15 year old boy shot and injured two Israelis with an improvised submachine in East Jerusalem.
  • The youngest on the list includes five 14 years old boys, the oldest is a 59-year-old woman.
  • The prisoners are mostly from the West Bank with a few who infiltrated from Gaza and 74 from East Jerusalem.
  • The list includes multi affiliated prisoners, including from Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Fatah, and other smaller terror organisations. Some of them have no affiliation.
  • Many of the youths are in prison under administrative detention as their trial has not yet taken place, with the majority of the list male teenagers arrested in the past two years.

Gaza Strip: The IDF this morning announced it had struck some 300 sites over the last day, including command centres, tunnels, weapons depots, weapon manufacturing sites and anti-tank missile launch positions.

  • IDF continue to make advances in Jabaliya, while combat engineers found and destroyed a Hamas tunnel shaft in Beit Hanoun.
  • The IDF yesterday announced the deaths of two soldiers in northern Gaza, taking the death toll since the beginning of ground operations to 70.
  • Meanwhile, the IDF yesterday confirmed it had destroyed some 400 terror tunnel shafts in the Strip since the start of the ground incursion.
  • This morning, sirens warned of incoming rocket fire in both Kerem Shalom, on the Israel-Gaza border, and in Ashkelon in southern Israel. Despite advances, Hamas are still able to launch rockets, now almost exclusively from the southern Gaza. Overall, the have fired over 10,000 rockets.

The north: This morning, air raid sirens sounded across the north as around 50 rockets fired from Lebanon towards northern Israel.

  • This is the most intense barrage of rockets fired from the north in the last few years.
  • Hezbollah claimed early this morning that five of its terrorists, including Abbas Raad, son of the head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc Mohammed Raad, had been killed in clashes on the northern border.
  • Lebanese sources further claimed that the five had been killed in an Israeli strike yesterday on a house in Beit Yahun, southern Lebanon.
  • Hezbollah also announced yesterday that it would respect any ceasefire agreed between Israel and Hamas, despite not being a party to the negotiations.

Context: Prime Minister Netanyahu yesterday said that he believed that the first hostage release would lead to others. “The combined military and diplomatic effort led to the ripe conditions for the return of our hostages. I believe this combination will also facilitate the release of additional hostages in the next stages,” he said.

  • Netanyahu emphasised, “the outline that has been achieved does not include the release of murderers. It does include visits by Red Cross representatives to the hostages and the delivery of medicines to them. I heard that there is someone denying this. The Red Cross says that it has not heard; then here is the explicit clause: ‘The Red Cross will be allowed to visit the remaining hostages and provide them with needed medicine.’ I expect the Red Cross to do its work.”
  • In a further example of support from the British Government, Foreign Minister Lord Cameron is visiting Israel today. He spent this morning visiting Kibbutz Be’eri and witnessing firsthand the destruction caused by Hamas on October 7th.
  • The IDF has completed its encirclement of Jabaliya, one the last remaining Hamas strongholds in the north of the Gaza Strip.
  • White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby last night told a US Jewish event that he expects the war to continue after the pause to release the hostages. “The fight is not over. The war is not over. The threat that Hamas poses is still real and still viable to the Israeli people,” he said, adding that the US would “continue to make sure that we’re giving [Israel] the tools the capabilities the weapons systems that they need to continue to go after Hamas.”
  • There is grave concern over this morning’s escalation in the north. Despite regular clashes on Israel’s northern border, until now Hezbollah has not previously escalated the conflict to the extent feared. The assessment has been that neither it, nor its Iranian patron, see it as in their interest to provoke a full-scale war at this time.
  • Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen yesterday warned the UN Security Council that Hezbollah must be disarmed if the risk of a regional war is to be avoided.“For the good of regional stability and to avoid further escalation, the next session of the UN Security Council must adopt a totally different approach in order to end the dangerous violations by Hezbollah and other terrorist groups on the border,” he wrote.
  • UN Security Council Resolution 1701 calls the disarming of non-state forces in Lebanon, but this has never been implemented.
  • Lebanese sources have suggested the temporary ceasefire also relates to  the north, but Israel officials have not confirmed this
  • The IDF said yesterday that one of its fighter jets had shot down an incoming cruise missile over the Red Sea, close to Eilat, believed to have been fired by the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.
  • Since the beginning of Israel’s operation in the Gaza Strip, the US and Saudi Arabia have shot down multiple missiles fired by the Houthis towards Eilat.

Looking ahead: If there are no more delays the temporary ceasefire could be announced today and go into effect tomorrow morning, with the first tranche of hostages to be freed later in the day.

  • For the duration of the pause, IDF soldiers are expected to remain in battle positions inside northern Gaza, ever vigilant that Hamas has broken ceasefire agreements in the past.
  • With the pause agreed and hostages released, significant , including fuel is expected to enter into Gaza from Egypt

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