SRAEL’S IDF ‘closes in’ on Hamas leaders but is time running out to eradicate terror group? Director, BICOM, Richard Pater speaks to The Sun about the situation on the ground right now, but warns the threat ‘won’t go away over night’.

Gaza Strip: Head of the IDF Southern Command Maj. Gen. Yaron Finkelman said Tuesday was the “most intense day of fighting so far in the ground manoeuvre in terms of the number of terrorists killed, the number of firefights and in the use of ground and air fire.”

• The IDF is engaged in fighting three Hamas strongholds simultaneously, in Jabalya and Shajaiya in the north and in the “heart” of Khan Yunis in the south.
• Speaking yesterday Prime Minister Netanyahu assessed, “so far, we’ve killed roughly half of Hamas’s battalion commanders. We’re setting accounts with everyone who murdered, raped and slaughtered our people. The ground shook in Khan Yunis and Jabalya. We are winning every battle, but that has a painful price.”
• Yesterday seven IDF soldiers were killed in combat, with the IDF announcing two more fatalities this morning.
• As part of the fighting, dozens of Hamas combatants were killed and infrastructure substantially damaged.
• The fighting has included troops entering buildings on foot, going house to house and engaging in combat in close quarters.

Home front: Despite the intense fighting, Hamas continues to launch rocket attacks against Israeli communities.

• Hamas fired two barrages of rockets at Israel on Tuesday, one at central Israel and the other at southern Israel. One of the rockets directly hit an apartment building in Ashkelon. Two elderly women sustained light injuries from shrapnel in that attack.
• At least 15 rockets were fired towards central Israel, with at least three rocket landing in the Tel Aviv area, including inside a school that was empty at the time. Footage showed a rocket landing very close to two youths on a street in Tel Aviv.
• Separately, the war cabinet ministers met with representatives of the hostage’s families and heard testimonies from some of the released hostages (more details below in the Israeli media summary).
• Facing harsh criticism Netanyahu said afterwards, “I fully share the deep concerns of the families whose loved ones are still being held in Gaza. I understand the uncertainty. I understand the intolerable difficulty. I told the families that we aren’t sparing any effort to get their loved ones back. Getting all of our hostages back home is one of the three supreme objectives that were set in the war, and those objectives serve one another.”

Lebanon: Hezbollah continues to fire rockets, mortars and anti-tank missiles towards northern Israel.

• In one barrage, around 20 rockets were fired towards Kiryat Shmona and Bet Hillel.
• In response, the IDF returned fired at the source and struck various Hezbollah positions.
• In an unusual statement, the IDF said it “regretted an incident” in which the Lebanese army suffered casualties. The IDF explained they had “acted in self-defence against a threat that was detected in a well-known launching ground and Hezbollah observation post.” It added that the incident was under review.

Context: On the 60^th day of the war Israel is simultaneously engaged in fighting in three critical areas within the Gaza Strip, both in the north and the south.

• The intensity of the fighting attests to their tactical ability and resoluteness, although it could still take weeks to subdue Hamas. There is ongoing concern that the diplomatic timeline may cut the fighting short.
• Israel has continued to call for civilian evacuations, to avoid civilian casualties. So far it is estimated about one third of the population has left Khan Yunis through a prescribed humanitarian corridor.
• In addition COGAT released a photo of the convoy of aids trucks queuing to enter Gaza, claiming the holdup was due to the UN.
• Despite hostage family calls to do a deal even at the price of releasing arch terrorists from Israeli prisons, a deal of that nature does not appear on the agenda. Instead the IDF believes that the fighting serves the goal of increasing the pressure on Hamas to free the hostages.
• Khan Yunis is now considered the most fortified concentration of Hamas’s miliary forces, including four of its 24 battalions. It could also be the current location of the senior Hamas leadership, though tunnels are thought to extend from Khan Yunis to Rafah. It could also be the location of the hostages, making the military operation even more complicated.
• The latest assessment from IDF Southern Command estimates that overall 6,000 Hamas fighters have been killed and several thousand more have been wounded.
• 84 IDF soldiers have been killed in the ground operation, many of them as a result of anti-tank missiles fired at very close range. Hamas fighters have been able to emerge from tunnels, attack and then disappear underground.
• Earlier in the week, the IDF said they uncovered over 800 tunnel shafts and destroyed 500 in northern Gaza. However, with hundred of kilometres of tunnel this could represent only a small fraction of the network.
• According to the Wall Street Journal, US officials saying that Israel is considering pumping seawater into the tunnels, in an effort to destroy the network and force concealed Hamas fighters to the surface.

Looking ahead: As part of the US administration’s close coordination with Israel, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan is expected to soon visit Israel. He will be particularly keen to discuss Israel’s future plan for Gaza.

• Beyond the advances so far, the final area that Israel will need to target will be the southern most city of Rafah. This is the main route of the smuggling tunnels that are used to import weapons. This will be crucial to ensure Hamas are not able to rearm in the future.
• Netanyahu also related to ‘the day after’, saying “Israel would have to guarantee that the Gaza Strip was demilitarised. Only one force can guarantee the Gaza Strip’s demilitarisation: the IDF. No international force can be responsible for that. I won’t shut my eyes and I won’t accept any other arrangement.”

Gaza Strip: The IDF is continuing to operate against Hamas strongholds in northern Gaza, notably in Jabaliya and Shajaiya.

• The IDF confirmed instances of “close-quarter combat” as they engaged Hamas fighters inside buildings.
• IDF infantry units exposed and decommissioned another 30 tunnel shafts.
• IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Hagari said, “IDF troops are expanding the ground operation towards Hamas’s centres of power in the Gaza Strip. Forces are going from building to building, from tunnel to tunnel, and there is also hand-to-hand combat.”
• Relating to the ongoing combat, IDF Spokesperson Hagari described operations as, “very significant, precise, and intelligence-based strikes.”
• Three more soldiers were confirmed to have been killed in combat, taking the total since the ground incursion to 78.
• In parallel, the IDF continued to make advances south into the outskirts of Khan Yunis.
• Operations in the south have so far focused primarily on heavy artillery shelling complimented by air strikes against Hamas military infrastructure.
• 137 hostages remain in Gaza. On Monday, Red Cross President Mirjana Spoljaric Egger visited the Gaza Strip. Israel appreciated her call for the release of hostages. However, she was unable to visit any hostages while in the Strip.
• Despite IDF advances, there has nevertheless been ongoing rocket fire out of Gaza. In late afternoon yesterday a barrage was directed towards Beer Sheva, launched from east of Khan Yunis. This is the area where IDF forces are approaching, adding to speculation that this may have been their last chance to release those rockets.

The north: Hezbollah yesterday claimed responsibility for at least nine attacks on northern Israel, including in Tel Hai, Shtula, and Kiryat Shmona.

• IAF combat jets attacked Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon last night in response to rocket fire targeted at the Zarit area in northern Israel. Hezbollah launching sites, terrorist infrastructure, and a military building were struck, while the IDF also fired artillery shells at other sites.
• As soon as Hamas broke the ceasefire last Friday, Hezbollah resumed its attacks on northern Israel. Amid multiple attacks, 12 people were wounded when an anti-tank missile hit the border town of Beit Hillel on Sunday.
• Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati met with US Ambassador Dorothy Shea in Beirut on Monday to discuss the situation in southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. Reports have suggested that the US and the French are offering financial incentives to the Lebanese government to act to remove Hezbollah terrorists from the border area. However, Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib yesterday made comments blaming Israel rather than Hezbollah for the post-October 7^th flare ups.
• Despite its constant targeting of Israel since October 7^th, Hezbollah has not expanded the conflict in the manner Hamas wished. The assessment remains that the group, and its Iranian paymaster, do not see it as in their interests to engage in all-out war with Israel at this time, and have therefore restricted their attacks so far to close proximity to the border.

Context: Jabaliya and Shajaiya have long been considered some of the strongest Hamas positions. Partly due to their close geographic location and dense urban concentration, close to the Israeli border.

• In 2014 Operation Protective Edge these were among the first areas attacked by the IDF.  This time the IDF initially circumvented these areas, going first for Gaza City and only afterwards approached these areas from the West.
• Defence Minister Gallant related to the previous fighting in Shajaiya in 2014 saying, “this time, they aren’t leaving until the complete elimination of all the terror infrastructure located there.”
• Despite the IDF’s achievements in northern Gaza prior to the temporary ceasefire, the army acknowledges that it will need time to complete the war’s objectives, especially since it is now operating in an already densely populated southern Gaza whose population has been swollen by over 1.5 million Gazans who moved from the north earlier in the war.
• However, international pressure is likely to grow incrementally for Israel to end its operations. Israel’s most important ally, the US, has continued to support its right to defend itself and to act to secure the total defeat of Hamas.
• Senior voices have repeatedly warned about the effects of civilian casualties on the sustainability of the operation. US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Sunday that “in this kind of a fight, the centre of gravity is the civilian population. And if you drive them into the arms of the enemy, you replace a tactical victory with a strategic defeat,” he said. “So I have repeatedly made clear to Israel’s leaders that protecting Palestinian civilians in Gaza is both a moral responsibility and strategic imperative.”
• There is growing concern, too, about the economic effects of a prolonged military campaign with mass mobilisation of Israeli reservists and the costs of war straining Israel’s economy. In that light, there is mounting criticism of Finance Minister Smotrich’s decision, acquiesced to by Netanyahu, to proceed with earmarked coalition funds for ultra-Orthodox education and settlements in the upcoming budget.
• In today’s Yediot Ahronot, a group of 167 former leaders of the defence establishment, chiefs of staff, police commissioners, Mossad and Shin Bet directors, generals, and commanders write an open letter calling the budget a threat to Israeli security, for diverting some of the funds to a sectoral agenda.

Looking ahead: Later today the war cabinet will meet with families of the hostages as they continue their campaign to pressure the government to reach further understandings and expediate their release. The government’s current approach sees the military campaign as the tool for increasing pressure on Hamas to reach better terms for a potential future deal.

• In Jabaliya, there is another hospital, like others suspected of doubling up as a Hamas command centre and thought to contain hundreds of Hamas fighters. This is expected to be see heavy fighting in the days ahead. As in similar cases, there is also thought to be a civilian population embedded with the fighters, further complicating IDF manoeuvres.

Gaza Strip: The IDF has continued to expand its ground operations, targeting Hamas strongholds.

• In northern Gaza, troops have continued their campaign against Hamas battalions in Jabalya and Shajaiya. They are considered large and powerful Hamas strongholds. In additions, hundreds of Hamas fighters fled there during the pause from other strongholds that the IDF had already conquered.
• Over Sunday night, the IDF attacked approximately 200 Hamas targets.
• The ground battles have also began on the outskirts of Khan Yunis in the south.
• In parallel, the IDF has continued to call on civilians to evacuate areas due to be targeted. The IDF has dropped leaflets, sent text messages  and even called residents’ phones. In addition, the IDF is using an interactive “evacuation map”, which divides the Strip into 2,300 zones, meant to help guide the civilian population to safety.
• It is unclear to what extent the residents are heeding these calls to evacuate. So far there has been only a slow flow of people leaving Khan Yunis
• Even in the north, despite significant IDF warning, there remains a civilian population that did not move to the south and stayed in both Jabalya and Shajaiya, posing further challenges.
• On Sunday night, the IDF announced that the commander of Hamas’s Shati Battalion, Haitham Khuwajari, had been killed. According to the IDF, he ordered Hamas terrorists into Israeli territory on October 7. Khuwajari was also in charge of Hamas’s security activity in Shifa Hospital and was in command of the fighting against IDF troops in the Shati camp.
• Also over the weekend, IDF combat jets killed the commander of Hamas’s Shajaiya battalion. Wassim Farhad was responsible for sending the Nukhba fighters who raided Kibbutz Nahal Oz and the nearby army outpost on October 7.
• Speaking on Sunday night, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi said, “as we fought hard and thoroughly in the northern Gaza Strip, so shall we now in the southern Gaza Strip. Yesterday, today, we killed battalion and company commanders, and many operatives, and yesterday morning we began the same course of action in the southern Gaza Strip. It will be just as powerful and will get just as many results, and Hamas’s commanders will find the IDF in a very powerful position everywhere.”
• This morning, the IDF announced three more soldiers have been killed, taking the total to 74 since the ground incursion began.

Context: The IDF campaign is continuing to target what remains of Hamas military positions in northern Gaza, but also in the south.

• There is now significant focus of air strikes on Khan Yunis, where it is thought the top Hamas leadership, including Yahya Sinwar, is located.
• This stage of the war is particularly complex due to the increased population density in Khan Yunis as a result of people having left the north.
• Khan Yunis is the second largest city in the Strip. Before this conflict it had a population of around 200,000 which is now thought to have doubled.
• It is further complicated due to the likely location of the remaining hostages.
• A significant part of the campaign has targeted Hamas’s network of tunnels. On Sunday, the IDF announced that since the beginning of ground operations they have located over “800 shafts.” Adding, “about 500 of the tunnel shafts have been destroyed using a variety of operational methods, including with explosives and blocks. Some of the tunnel shafts connected Hamas’ strategic assets via the underground tunnel network. In addition, many miles of the tunnel routes have been destroyed. The tunnel shafts were located in civilian areas, many of which were near or inside civilian buildings and structures, such as schools, kindergartens, mosques and playgrounds. IDF soldiers located large quantities of weapons inside some of the shafts. These findings are further proof of how Hamas deliberately uses the civilian population and infrastructure as a cover for its terrorist activity inside Gaza.”
• “After locating the shafts, IDF troops carry out thorough investigations in order to understand the characteristics of the tunnels and then prepare the underground route for its destruction.”
• Despite a total of 110 returned captives, there remain 137 hostages inside Gaza – two children, nine Thai nationals, 20 Israeli women and 106 men.
• Based on information garnered from those released, Israel has confirmed that six hostages are dead and their bodies are being held in Gaza. They include Col. Assaf Hamami, the commander of the southern brigade in the Gaza Division, who was killed on October 7 and his body taken to Gaza. He is the third division commander killed that day.
• During the pause, Israel facilitated the entrance of over 1,200 trucks of aid, around 200 day. Despite a resumption of fighting, 55 trucks of food and medical supplies entered on Sunday.
• Despite IDF advances, as a result of the pause Hamas were able to replenish rocket supplies and have continued to fire on the Israeli home front. Over 10,000 rockets have been fired out of Gaza since October 7.

Northern front:  As soon as Hamas broke the ceasefire in the south on Friday morning, so Hezbollah resumed their strikes in the north.

• On Sunday, there were several attacks including close to Bet Hillel about four km from the Lebanon border with 11 people reported injured.
• Again, there was sustained mortar fire towards Mount Dov and other areas close to the border. The IDF responded by attacking Hezbollah positions on the Lebanese side.
• There are continued diplomatic efforts led by the US and France to financially induce the Lebanese government to act to move Hezbollah fighters away from the border.

Looking ahead: The British Royal Air Force will soon begin to conduct surveillance flights over Gaza to help Israel locate hostages. According to the MOD, “surveillance aircraft will be unarmed, do not have a combat role, and will be tasked solely to locate hostages. Only information relating to hostage rescue will be passed to the relevant authorities responsible for hostage rescue.”

• The IDF estimates that it will take another 10 days to complete this second stage of the war in the northern Gaza Strip.
• The campaign in the south will take longer, but once the north is subdued it will free up additional forces.
• Kan News revealed a recording of Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar saying that Israel’s objective is to kill the Hamas leaders, even in “Lebanon, Qatar and in Turkey. It will take years, but it is our generation’s mission, our Munich.” (Munich is a reference of the killing of 11 Israeli athletes at the Munich Olympics in 1972. It took almost 20 years to target all the Palestinian terrorists responsible).

What’s happened: As of midday local time, thirty rockets have been fired – initially towards the Gaza periphery, before extending towards Ashkelon.

• In response, the IDF also renewed operations, both on the ground in northern Gaza and from the air, with strikes targeting Hamas positions in Khan Yunis and Rafah in the south.
• Palestinian sources are reporting fatalities including a cell firing anti-tank missiles on an IDF position in northern Gaza, and as a result of airstrikes in the south.
• Before the fighting resumed, eight hostages were released yesterday as part of the seventh round. In exchange, Israel released 30 prisoners.
• The eight hostages released were named, four were from Kibbutz Nir Oz; Shani Goren, 29, Nili Margalit 41, Ilana Gritzewsky Kimchi 30 and Sapir Cohen 29.
• Bilal Zaidna, 18, and her brother Aisha, 17, who were working in Kibbutz Holit’s cowshed when they were captured, were also released, though their father and brother are still missing.
• Also released earlier in the day were Mia Shem 21, from Modiin, kidnapped from the Nova festival, and Amit Soussana, 40, from Kibbutz Kfar Aza.
• According to the Qataris, the two hostages with dual Israeli-Russian citizenship that were released on Wednesday were considered part of the seventh phase, allowing Israel to insist on the equation of receiving at least 10 in each round.
• Yesterday US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in Israel, meeting the leadership and attending the security cabinet, reinforcing the US position that, “Hamas cannot remain in control of Gaza.  It cannot retain the capacity to repeat that carnage.”
• However, Channel 12 News reported on leaked transcripts from the security cabinet meeting, highlighting disagreements:
  • Blinken warned, “you can’t operate in southern Gaza in the way you did in the north… be more accurate in the attacks, not hit UN facilities, and ensure that there are enough protected areas.”
  • IDF Chief of Staff Halevi responded, “we follow a number of principles, proportionality, distinction, and the laws of war. There were instances where we attacked on the basis of those principles, and instances where we decided not to attack, because we waited for a better opportunity.”
  • Defence Minister Gallant added that, “the goal is dismantling Hamas, even if it takes months.”
  • Blinken replied, “I don’t think you have the credit for that.”
• At a later press conference Blinken elaborated on his expectations, “taking more effective steps to protect the lives of civilians, including by clearly and precisely designating areas and places in southern and central Gaza where they can be safe and out of the line of fire. It means avoiding further significant displacement of civilians inside of Gaza. It means avoiding damage to life-critical infrastructure, like hospitals, like power stations, like water facilities. And it means giving civilians who’ve been displaced to southern Gaza the choice to return to the north as soon as conditions permit. There must be no enduring internal displacement.”
• Earlier, in their meeting Defence Minister Gallant reaffirmed, “we are going to fight Hamas until we prevail, no matter how long it takes.”

Context: With the completion of the seventh day of a pause, Israel has managed to extract 104 hostages – 80 Israelis and 24 foreign nationals. However, 143 hostages remain in captivity.

• Talks broke down last night when Hamas claimed they only had 7 hostages and 3 bodies to exchange under the present deal. Israel had long anticipated Hamas was trying to buy more time and reduce the price. Israel has insisted it will not exchange live prisoners for hostages’ bodies.
• As part of Hamas’s ongoing psychological warfare, last night they released another hostage video. This time a recording of Yarden Beibas, who was told his wife and two children Ariel, 4, and Kfir, 9 months (when captured), were all dead. Their death has not been confirmed on the Israeli side.
• The Beibas mother and children, including the youngest hostage, who were pictured being kidnapped have become a symbol of the war, both in terms of the depth of the Israel’s failure to protect their citizens as well as the extent of Hamas’s brutality.
• The overwhelming majority of the remaining hostages are men, including injured and elderly, and male and female soldiers, for which Hamas are expected to demand a higher price for their return.
• As fighting resumes, there is heighted alert that Hamas used the pause to replenish munitions and other supplies, reorganise, as well as potentially lay traps and plant more explosives.
• The IDF were also able to give troops some leave and review their own battle plans.
• There is an expectation that Israel will need to launch a ground incursion into the south, particularly into Khan Yunis and Rafah. There is speculation that the Hamas senior leadership are in Khan Yunis, as well as significant remnants of their fighting force, making the city a crucial battleground. However they will need to employ different tactics due to the even higher population density.
• To compound this, Hamas have deliberately encouraged Gazans from the north to populate public buildings in Khan Yunis instead of the designated safe zone on the southern coast.
• An operation is Rafah is also viewed as militarily essential to prevent weapons smuggling routes being reopened after the war is over. Rafah is also a sensitive location, due to its proximity to Egypt.
• Blinken’s fourth visit to Israel and his attendance at the security cabinet attests to the continued close coordination between the US and Israel. However, there are clearly gaps in their views of how the war should be prosecuted.
• There was also discussion in the cabinet meeting about the day after. Blinken reportedly said, “you don’t want the Palestinian Authority on the day after. We understand that. The best way to kill an idea is to bring a better idea. The other states in the region need to know what you are planning.”
• Prime Minister Netanyahu responded, “as long as I’m sitting in this chair, the Palestinian Authority, which supports, educates and finances terror, will not rule Gaza on the day after Hamas.”
• On a visit to the UAE today, Israeli President Herzog met with King Charles and asked him “to use all his diplomatic clout to advance efforts to bring the kidnapped daughters and sons back home.”

Other fronts: There is ongoing concern over growing motivation to carry out terror attacks from other areas, as Hamas took responsibility for Thursday’s shooting attack at the entrance of Jerusalem.

• A fourth victim was announced as 38 year old Yuval Doron Kastelman. He was driving into Jerusalem, left his car and helped kill both terrorists, before then being mistakenly shot by soldiers. Video footage shows Kastelman kneeling after letting go of his pistol and raising his hands. The soldiers thought he was a terrorist and shot him. Six other people were wounded in the attack.
• Police forces raided the home of the two terrorists, brothers from Tzur Bahar in East Jerusalem, identified with Hamas, and who were previously imprisoned in Israel.
• Also on Thursday, two IDF reservists were lightly wounded in a car ramming attack in the Jordan Valley. The assailant was shot.
• Israel is also gearing up for the possible resumption of attacks from Hezbollah and Palestinian terror groups operating from southern Lebanon. That front remained quiet during the week long pause, with concern that attacks could now resume imminently.
• In the south, the Houthis did not abide by the pause. Again on Wednesday, A US navy vessel intercepted an Iranian drone in the Red Sea that took off from an area controlled by the Houthis in Yemen.

Looking ahead: Whilst the fighting has resumed, it is also anticipated that negotiations will continue in parallel in order to explore a new deal to release the remaining hostages. Israel hopes that a combination of military pressure and diplomacy will yield further results.

• A special investigations unit will begin collect testimonies, intelligence and forensic evidence from the hostage. The evidence will help Israel prosecute terrorists who participated in the massacre and the kidnappings and will provide further proof of Hamas’s war crimes.

What happened: On Tuesday night, nine Israeli women and one teenage girl, and two Thai nationals were freed from Hamas captivity.

• Those released included three members of the Leimberg family, Gabriela Leimberg (59), Mia Leimberg (17), Clara Marman (63).
• In addition, seven Israeli women – Tamar Metzger (78), Ditza Heiman (84), Noralin Babadila (60), Ada Sagi (75), Ofelia Adit Roitman (77), Rimon Kirsht (36), Meirav Tal (53).
• Images showed the Israeli captives escorted by terrorists from both Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad before they were handed over to the Red Cross.
• Similar to previous releases, those released were transferred to Israeli hospitals where they were evaluated physically and mentally and reunited with their families.
• Yesterday, Hamas breached the agreed ceasefire, according to the IDF: “three explosive devices were detonated adjacent to IDF troops in two different locations in the northern Gaza Strip, violating the framework of the operational pause. In one of the locations, terrorists also opened fire at the troops, who responded with fire. A number of soldiers were lightly injured during the incidents. In both incidents, the troops were located in positions as per the framework of the operational pause.”
• In parallel, negotiations resumed in Qatar to extend the current arrangement between Israel and Hamas. The director of Mossad David Barnea held talks alongside head of Egyptian intelligence Abbas Kamel, CIA Director William Burns, the Qatari prime minister and their head of intelligence.

Context: So far 61 Israelis and 20 foreign nationals have been released since last Friday. In addition, prior to the pause four were released and one was rescued. The bodies of two hostages were also recovered inside Gaza. There remain an estimated 146 in captivity, with a further ten expected to be released later today.

• According to Yediot Ahronot, and based on Israeli military intelligence, 5,300 Hamas operatives have been killed. This included three Hamas brigade commanders, 14 battalion commanders and dozens of company commanders. Overall, Israel estimate that around 15,000 Palestinians have been killed in total.
• In the latest rounds of negotiations, the Egyptian, Kamal Abbas, joined the US and Israeli officials in Qatar. It is hoped having them all in the room together (not Hamas) will facilitate a smoother, more efficient process.
• Part of the speculation around the talks includes the idea that the Qataris and Egyptians are proposing a deal that might end the war and free all of the remaining Israeli hostages. In exchange the Gaza Strip would be demilitarised and Israel will release thousands of Palestinian terrorists. Israel would also need to agree not to target senior Hamas officials. One option could see them leave Gaza, similar to Arafat leaving Lebanon in 1982.
• While more often it is the mediator that travels in order to facilitate dialogue, in this instance all the parties are prepared to travel to Qatar. This can partly be explained by the fact that Qatar is expected to pay a significant portion of the required funds to rehabilitate Gaza the day after. This also provides a major challenge, as Qatar still supports the continued rule of Hamas, placing them squarely at odds with the Israeli agenda, supported so far by the US.
• The Israel consensus remains that this is a pause and fighting will resume in order to end Hamas’s control of the Strip and their ability to launch attacks in the future.
• Last night, White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said the US would, “not be able to support further Israeli military operations in the southern Gaza Strip before Israel can guarantee that it would not displace civilians.”
• The IDF is using the pause in fighting to review operational performances and learn lessons ahead of the anticipated resumption of fighting.
• More details have emerged of the conditions in which the hostages were held. Some were treated reasonably, whilst others were subjected to extensive violence; tied up for hours and subjected to humiliation and beaten. They were denied food and water for long periods of time and they were not allowed to use the lavatory. (More details in Israeli media summary below).

Looking ahead: US sources suggest that there are still women and children held captive that could allow for an additional two day extension under the existing framework. AFP claim there is agreement for an additional four days.

• Both Prime Minister Netanyahu and Minister Benny Gantz have again publicly committed to renew the military campaign. Netanyahu said, “we are committed to completing our missions, freeing all the hostages, destroying that terror organisation above ground and below ground and, obviously, that Gaza not revert to what it was and that it not pose a threat to the State of Israel.”
• The security cabinet will convene this evening to discuss prolonging the pause by a number of days.

What happened: 11 Israeli hostages, all children and mothers, and 6 Thai nationals, were released yesterday in the fourth group of hostages released so far. They were taken to Ichilov Hospital in Tel Aviv, where doctors announced that all were in stable condition.

• The release comprised five families from Kibbutz Nir Oz, all of whose fathers remained held hostage in the Gaza Strip.
• In line with the deal reached with Hamas, 33 Palestinian prisoners were released by Israel yesterday.
• The hostage release was delayed due to Hamas breaking terms of the agreement by initially excluding two mothers from the list, despite commitments not to separate mothers and children. This included the exclusion of a mother of 3-year-old twins (whose father remains captive).
• Israel insisted the mothers return with the children, and with US pressure (reportedly from President Biden himself), and with backing from Qatar and Egypt who also supported the Israeli position, Hamas eventually relented.
• Before the release, the Israeli cabinet authorised an agreement between Israel and Hamas extending the pause in fighting for a further two days, starting tomorrow, with 10 Israeli hostages set to be released each day and 60 further Palestinian prisoners released.

Context: In the second round of releases, Hamas reneged on an agreement that all children released would be accompanied by their mothers. 12-year-old Hila Rotem was released without her mother Raya, despite saying after her release that she had been held alongside her mother throughout her period in captivity, and separated only two days before her scheduled release.

• The Bibas family – 9-month-old Kfir, his 4-year-old brother Ariel, and parents Yarden, 34, and Shiri, 32 – had been widely expected to be part of the release, but were not.
• The family is thought to have been kidnapped by Hamas on October 7th before being transferred to another group. They are currently being held in the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis.
• Hostage negotiations are complex and elongated due to the need to pass on messages through a series of mediators.
• On this occasion, Israel also held up the delivery of the daily entrance of 200 trucks of aid, only allowing it to enter in the evening, to correspond with the release.
• More details have emerged from some of the other captives. They include one woman who said that early on in the war she met Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar who told her in fluent Hebrew that they were in the safest place (in an underground tunnel) and would not be harmed.
• Sinwar learnt Hebrew while serving five life sentences in Israeli prison. He was one of the most prominent terrorists released in the deal to free Gilad Shalit in 2011.  This is being interpreted in Israel as the latest example of Sinwar’s sadism.
• In another instance, Hamas published a “thank you letter” written by Danielle Aloni to her captors, a day before she was released with her daughter. Hebrew readers were quick to notice clear language that native Israelis would never use, and seen as further proof of Hamas looking to cleanse its image.
• Roni Krivoi, a 25 year old dual Israeli-Russian citizen was released as part of a Hamas goodwill gesture towards President Putin. His family relayed that in one of the bombings, he managed to escape and survived for four days alone in Gaza, before he was captured by Gazans and returned to Hamas.
• Hamas is thought to be keen to prolong the ceasefire beyond the additional two days so far agreed and is reportedly prepared to discuss the release of men and soldiers, albeit under different equation to the women, children and elderly.
• This places Israel in a dilemma over the price of releasing terrorists and murders from prison in exchange.
• Divisions among the top Israeli echelons remain regarding the wisdom of agreeing to an extension to the pause in fighting. Defence Minister Gallant and some in the IDF leadership are known to favour a quicker return to the fighting. Gallant’s coalition partners Gantz and Eisenkot, along with the intelligence leadership, have favoured the pause to release hostages.
• Despite impressive IDF performance, Hamas remains in place in parts of the northern Gaza Strip such as Sajaiya, Jabalya and parts of Rimal. Israeli forces will have to clear these areas of Hamas forces, likely reinforced during the pause, before tackling the southern part of the Strip.
• Operations in the south are set to be complicated, involving dense urban warfare further compounded by the movement south of hundreds of thousands of northern Gazans escaping the earlier fighting in the north.
• Adding to the complex calculations of military planners, there still remains an estimated 163 hostages being held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Looking ahead: Israel has received the list of names for tomorrow’s scheduled release. The list is being reviewed and families of the hostages notified.

• US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is set to return to the region this week, in his third trip since October 7th, with the US thought to be keen to extend the pause even further.
• Despite concerns that it will be difficult to restart fighting after a pause set to last a minimum of four days, Israel insists it will resume its operation.