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Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Key background
  • Hamas is an Islamist Palestinian nationalist movement which currently governs the Gaza Strip. It is proscribed by the UK and in the majority of western countries.
  • Its primary state backers are Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. It is also active in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon.
  • Since seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has continuously launched attacks against Israel and weaponised civilian infrastructure by embedding itself into schools, mosques, and hospitals.
  • Hamas’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel killed 1200, and over 250 hostages were subsequently taken to the Gaza Strip.

Updated December 18, 2023

IDF Chief of Staff reiterates rules of engagement  

Three hostages killed: IDF Chief of Staff Halevi visited troops inside Gaza and reflected on Friday’s incident where troops shot and killed three Israel hostages who managed to escape their captives.

  • The three hostages had stripped to their waist to prove they did not have an explosive belt and carried an improvised white flag (a white cloth on a poll). They came out speaking Hebrew and asking for help.
  • Two were shot by an IDF sniper, while the third was killed after he ran back inside a building.
  • Since the incident, it also became apparent they had made a banner and written, “three hostages, help” in Hebrew as well as other signs.
  • Halevi told the troops, “you see two people, they are with hands up and without shirts, take two seconds, and I want to tell you something just as important, and if it’s two Gazans with a white flag coming out to surrender why would we shoot at them? Absolutely not. Absolutely not. That’s not the IDF.”
  • “I’m telling you whoever got confused here, even those who fought and now lay down their arms and raise their hands, we arrest them, we don’t shoot them. We get a lot of intelligence from the captives we have, we already have over a thousand. We don’t shoot them because the IDF doesn’t shoot a person who raises their hands. That’s strength, not weakness.”

Largest tunnel exposed: The IDF exposed a Hamas tunnel system with its exit point in close vicinity (400 metres) of the Erez crossing, at the northern tip of the Strip.

  • According to the IDF, “this massive tunnel system, splits into branches of tunnels, spans well over four kilometres,” and reached 50 metres underground.
  • The IDF described this tunnel as a “strategic attack tunnel network,” noting it was “large enough to drive vehicles through, was spearheaded by Muhammad Sinwar (the brother of Hamas leader) and intentionally dug near a crossing dedicated to the movement of Gazans into Israel for work and medical care.”
  • Overall, the IDF has already exposed hundreds of tunnel shafts, but this one was significantly wider and more sophisticated than most. As with other tunnels, the IDF noted it was, “equipped with electricity, ventilation, sewage, communication networks and rails.”
  • Many of the tunnels were deliberately built under hospitals, mosques, schools, and kindergartens. This largely explains the significant damage caused during Israel’s operations, particularly in northern Gaza, due to the need to destroy this underground network.
  • It also speaks to the enormous investment, both financial and resources, that Hamas placed on this project though many years, with the sole objective of attacking Israel.
  • Prior to the war, the Erez Crossing was the main crossing for Gazan civilians to enter Israel for work and to receive treatment in Israeli hospitals. According to the IDF, “in 2022, over 800,000 Gazans crossed via Erez Crossing; in the first half of 2023, 550,000.”

Fighting continues: The IDF continues its campaign fighting in both northern and southern Gaza.

  • Over the weekend, troops continued to target Hamas fighters, including the latest example of Hamas combatants hiding in schools and hospitals.
  • For example, in the Kamal Adwan hospital in Jabalya, around 80 fighters were arrested, some of whom terrorists who took part in the October 7th massacre. In addition, according to the IDF, “troops destroyed terror infrastructure in the area and located numerous weapons including AK-47s, RPGs, explosive devices, Nukhba military equipment, technological equipment, and Hamas intelligence documents.”
  • They also questioned the hospital workers. “The workers confessed that weapons were hidden in incubators in the NICU, incubators that were supposed to be used to treat premature babies. Following the questioning, IDF troops located weapons, classified documents, and tactical communications equipment.”
  • In the south, IDF forces in Khan Yunis “eliminated numerous terrorists, located approximately 30 tunnel shafts, and destroyed numerous anti-tank and lookout posts in the area. They also confiscated grenades and RPGs, and found intelligence materials including phones, computers and Hamas guidebooks.”
  • Overall, the cost in terms of soldiers’ lives continues to rise, with three more soldiers’ deaths announced this morning, taking those killed since the ground incursion to 126.

Hostages: Despite numerous examples of tactical successes, the overall objectives of destroying Hamas and returning the remaining 129 hostages appear far from completion.

  • On Friday, the head of the Mossad met with the Qatari prime minister to revisit the possibility of another hostage deal.
  • At present, Israel is insisting that the first component includes the female captives that were supposed to be released as part of the first agreement.
  • After that, Israel is keen to see the release of wounded and elderly men, and there is speculation that Israel would be willing to be “more generous” when it come to releasing Palestinian security prisoners.
  • The head of Mossad is expected to travel to Europe later this week and again meet with Qatari prime minister to explore a new deal with Hamas.

Northern front: Hezbollah has kept up a persistent level of attacks across the length of the Israel-Lebanon border.

  • Alarms were sounded across northern Israel throughout the weekend. This morning six rockets landed in uninhabited areas.
  • Overall, hundreds of rockets and missiles have been fired from Lebanon. However, according to the IDF around 20 per cent of their rockets have landed inside Lebanon.
  • The IDF also claims overall to have struck 120 terrorist cells firing or preparing to launch attacks from southern Lebanon.
  • Syrian sources claimed that overnight Israeli air strikes targeted Hezbollah military sites inside along with Syrian army air defence batteries.

December 15, 2023

UK announces new sanctions on Iran and Palestinian terror groups

Sanctions against Iran: On Thursday, the UK government announced new sanctions on Iran have now come into force.

  • According to the government announcement, the new sanctions gives the UK “extensive new powers to disrupt Iran’s hostile activities in the UK and around the world.”
  • They target “Iran’s decision makers” and “the head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force and individuals linked to Iran’s relationship with Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).”
  • Part of the sanctions also focus specifically on Iran’s drone programme and naval activity.
  • Foreign Secretary David Cameron said, “the behaviour of the Iranian regime poses an unacceptable threat to the UK and our partners. It continues to threaten people on UK soil and uses its influence to destabilise the Middle East through its support to armed groups, including Hamas and PIJ.”
  • The UK also announced that in coordination with the US, “the first set of designations under this new regime, targeting Iran’s support for Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad… includes Esmail Qaani, who heads the IRGC Quds Force… A further seven individuals and one entity, all with links to Hamas and PIJ,” were also designated.
  • Sanctions include a travel ban on those designated, and “an asset freeze preventing any UK citizen, or any business in the UK, from dealing with any funds or economic resources which are owned, held or controlled by the designated person. It is also prevent[ing] funds or economic resources being provided to or for the benefit of the designated person.”

Sanctions against Hamas and PIJ: On Wednesday the UK, (also) in coordination with the US announced new sanctions “to isolate terror group[s]”.

  • The new sanctions aim to freeze assets and impose travel bans. The government explained, “the sanctions target key figures in the network that has financed Hamas, including individuals in Lebanon and Algeria. These stringent measures show that individuals linked to Hamas will not be able to escape accountability, even if they are operating from outside of Gaza.”
  • Foreign Secretary Cameron declared, “Hamas has no future in Gaza.”
  • The UK named seven individuals linked to Hamas to be sanctioned:
    • Mahmoud Zahar: a Gaza-based Hamas leader and co-founder.
    • Ali Baraka: the Lebanon-based Head of External Relations for Hamas.
    • Maher Obeid: a political leader who has held senior positions in Hamas.
    • Akram al-Ajouri: the -based Deputy Secretary General of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and Leader of the Al-Quds Brigades, PIJ’s military wing.
    • Khaled Chouman and Rida Ali Khamis: who have channelled funds to Hamas through their Lebanon-based currency exchanges.
    • Aiman Ahmad Al Duwaik: an Algeria-based financier for Hamas who has helped run the organisation’s overseas investment portfolio.” I think we can lose the quote marks here

 Context: The dual sanctioning of Iran and Palestinian terror groups, is a further indicator of the unity of the US-UK-Israel alliance and the shared threat assessment of Iran.

  • With so much world attention on Gaza, the sanctions against Iran come as a timely reminder that it was Iran that provides Hamas and PIJ with much of their weapons and technological military support.
  • Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen are also both supported by Iran, and Iranian drones are proliferated across the region as well as supplied to the Russian military.
  • The concern remains that with the spotlight away from Iran they could be making critical progress on their nuclear enrichment.
  • In its announcement, the UK government further noted, “the Iranian regime’s activities undermining peace, stability and security in the Middle East and internationally” include “the use and spread of weapons or weapons technologies from Iran.”
  • UK sanctions were developed in the summer, “to respond to unprecedented threats from the Iranian regime, including efforts to undermine peace and security across the Middle East and plots to kill individuals on UK soil.”
  • The government announcement noted, sSince the start of 2022, the UK has responded more than 15 credible threats and plots to kill British or UK-based individuals by the Iranian regime. The regime has publicly called for the killing of these individuals and in some cases detained and harassed the individual’s families in Iran.”
  • The UK proscribed Hamas’s military wing as a terrorist group in March 2001, and extended it to include the whole organisation in November 2021.
  • Although the UK abstained in both recent UN Security Council and General Assembly votes calling for immediate ceasefire, Simon Walters the UK Ambassador in Israel clarified in a recent interview, “we don’t use that term [ceasefire], we say that the sooner the war ends, the better, but we haven’t called for a ceasefire because we know that the task of destroying Hamas is still not over.”
  • The UK further declared that along with the US, they “stand united in their solidarity with Israel and its fight against Hamas, while being clear their actions must be in line with International Humanitarian Law. We continue to support efforts to prevent a regional escalation of the conflict and allow crucial access to Gaza.”
  • When Cameron visited last month, he announced the UK would give a further £30 million in to the UN. In addition the UK has already sent 51 tonnes of aid to the region.
  • This latest announcement builds on last month’s when the UK, “targeted Hamas’ political leader in Gaza, along with other top-ranking officials and financiers. Sanctions form part of a wider tranche of measures aimed at disrupting the group’s acts of terror, including the recently announced international taskforce set up to enable the UK and partners to share financial intelligence.”
  • In an apparent effort for balance, Cameron also announced measures to be taken against violent Jewish settlers in the West Bank. Similar to the US, the UK would also institute a travel ban against “those responsible for settler violence from entering the UK.” He wrote on X that, “extremist settlers, by targeting and killing Palestinian civilians, are undermining security and stability for both Israelis and Palestinians. Israel must take stronger action to stop settler violence and hold the perpetrators accountable.”
  • In parallel, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan was the latest senior US official to visit Israel and conduct close coordination meetings with the Israeli leadership. On Thursday night he met Mossad Director David Barnea, where they focused on the “triple-layered” strategic threat from Iran, nuclear, regional proxies and partners and their support for terrorism.
  • The UK’s Maritime Trade Operation (UKMTO) continues to note attacks by Iranian backed Houthis on cargo ships passing the Yemeni coastline. Israel has called for a combined international solution to the threats against the commercial shipping lanes.

Looking ahead: These new sanctions will give the UK government, “new powers to hold Iran and its decision makers to account.”

  • The government reiterated that, “membership and expressing support for Hamas is an illegal act in the UK, punishable by up to 14 years in prison.”
  • Despite both the UK and US’s desire to see an end of the fighting in Gaza, Defence Minister Gallant cautioned Sullivan that in order to dismantle Hamas, which had been built for years solely for terrorist goals, it would take more than a few months

December 14, 2023

Two people believed taken hostage confirmed killed

  • Joshua Loitu Mollel, a 21-year-old agriculture student from Tanzania who had worked in the cow shed at Nachal Oz and was abducted, is thought to have been killed in captivity, while Tal Haimi, a 41-year-old resident of Kibbutz Nir Yitzhak is thought to have been killed on October 7 and his body taken back to the Gaza Strip.
  • Elsewhere, First Sgt. (res.) Elisha Levinstern, a 38-year-old resident of Harish who served with the Armored Corps, was killed in action yesterday in the southern Gaza Strip. The IDF death toll stands at 116 since the start of the ground operation.
  • Fighting continued yesterday, overnight, and this morning in northern Gaza’s Shejaiya and Jabaliya and in Khan Younis in the south.
  • In the northern Strip, the IDF said it had killed “many terrorists”, including in a raid on a school from which Hamas gunmen had shot at them.
  • Speaking at a situation assessment meeting last night at Shin Bet headquarters, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Israel had no option but to destroy Hamas.
  • Netanyahu said, “I discern the start of Hamas breaking. I see the start, the start of their recognition that we are resolved and will continue to the end and will destroy them. I don’t think that we have any alternative.”
  • White House spokesman John Kirby said that Israel will soon approve the American request to allow to enter the Gaza Strip through the Kerem Shalom border crossing, which has been closed since October 7.
  • Kirby also suggested that some of the steps the Israeli military has taken to prevent civilian casualties in Gaza might go further than what the US would have done if it were in Israel’s place.
  • This appears to be an attempt to soften the critique by President Biden who said Israel was losing global support in the war against Hamas due to “indiscriminate bombing” in the Palestinian enclave.
  • In the West Bank, an IDF aircraft attacked a squad in Jenin that threw explosive devices and endangered the troops in the course of an operation to arrest wanted men. The Palestinian Red Crescent reported that three Palestinians were killed.
  • This was the second air attack in the course of the operation that began on Tuesday in Jenin and its refugee camp. The West Bank Health Ministry said that 11 Palestinians have been killed in the past three days as a result of the army’s operations.
  • Elsewhere, the US Navy destroyer USS Mason shot a drone launched from a Houthi-controlled area while responding to a call from a Marshall Islands-flagged tanker in the southern Red Sea on December 13, US Central Command said on early Thursday.

Context: According to reports, American officials believe that Israel needs to change the pace and intensity of its air campaign in Gaza before Christmas.

  • According to a decision of the Israeli security cabinet, the third stage of the war will entail operations to mop up pockets of resistance by means of raids that are to be conducted by IDF brigades and, if need be, by divisions as well (from the border area where the IDF will deploy).
  • These will be complemented by ongoing efforts to destroy Hamas infrastructure and to reach additional deals to free hostages. According to the security cabinet, in the fourth stage of the war, the IDF is to turn civilian control over Gaza to a third party. If that doesn’t happen, Israel will continue to hold onto the territory.
  • In an interview with Israeli radio, British Ambassador to Israel Simon Walters clarified the current UK position, saying, “we don’t use that term [ceasefire], we say that the sooner the war ends, the better, but we haven’t called for a ceasefire because we know that the task of destroying Hamas is still not over.”
  • Above tactical military decisions, the main disagreement between Israel and the US remains ‘the day after in Gaza’. The Biden administration has said that the Palestinian Authority (PA) should play a major role in the Strip, whereas Netanyahu has ruled that out. Arab allies of the US have said they’ll only get involved in post-war reconstruction if there’s a credible push toward a two-state solution.
  • The Israeli media quotes an unnamed senior US official saying that “if Netanyahu wants the Arabs to rebuild Gaza he is going to have to be flexible and agree to the PA’s entry, even if not in the immediate term, but in the longer term. If Netanyahu wants normalisation with Saudi Arabia he’s got to understand that without the PA in Gaza he won’t get anything.”
  • Reports suggest that Netanyahu is also coming under pressure from within the Israeli cabinet and security establishment to pay far greater attention to ‘the day after’.
  • In parallel, the scale of the PA’s unpopularity in its own West Bank was revealed in fresh polling this week, in which 92 percent called for the resignation of its President Mahmoud Abbas. The poll also showed widespread approval for Hamas’s October 7 attack: 57 percent in Gaza and 82 percent in the West Bank.
  • The Israeli government continues to weigh whether to allow entry to Israel of work permit holders from the West Bank. The security and defence establishments support the move, in a bid to prevent the West Bank spiralling into further violence.

Looking ahead: Several senior American officials are arriving in Israel. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan visited Saudi Arabia on Wednesday to meet with the Crown Prince to discuss the Gaza war and will hold meetings in Israel today and tomorrow.

  • On Friday, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Brown is scheduled to arrive, and Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin is due in Israel on Monday.
  • American officials will reportedly discuss the option of another deal to free hostages in exchange for a pause in fighting that would allow for more to enter Gaza.
  • The senior American officials visiting Israel are also expected to discuss the situation on the northern border. Israel believes there are three options: reaching an agreement that will force Hezbollah to redeploy roughly seven kilometres from the border, which will allow the residents of northern Israel to return to their homes; a war that is proactively launched by Israel; or an escalation in hostilities that devolves into full-scale war.

December 13, 2023

Eight Israeli soldiers killed fighting in Gaza

Gaza Strip: The IDF announced that eight soldiers were killed yesterday as fighting continues in north and south Gaza.

  • The soldiers were named as Lieutenant Colonel Tomer Grinberg, the commander of the Golani Brigade’s 13th Battalion; Major Roei Meldas; Major Moshe Avram Bar On; Major Ben Shelly; Captain Liel Hayo; Staff Sergeant Oriya Yaakov’ Sergeant First Class Rom Hecht; and Sergeant Achia Daskal.
  • Seven of the soldiers fell in battle in the Shajaiya neighbourhood in northern Gaza. Hamas terrorists opened fire at a Golani force that was operating in the area. When the soldiers approached the source of the shooting, an explosive device was detonated which wounded several soldiers. Israeli forces who arrived to rescue the soldiers, assisted by air force and artillery, were hit by another bomb that was detonated. A third force that tried to locate the disconnected soldiers was also injured in the fighting.
  • Prior to the incident in Shajaiya, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant held a situation assessment meeting at the 162nd Division’s forward command post. Gallant said at the meeting: “The operation is very serious, very resolute, and the results speak for themselves. Gaza City is gradually breaking, and we will shortly destroy Hamas’s entire infrastructure in Gaza City.”
  • The Wall Street Journal reported that Israel had recently begun pumping seawater into Hamas’ vast labyrinth of tunnels underneath Gaza, in a process that would likely take weeks.
  • Israel declared 19 of 135 hostages still in captivity in Gaza dead in absentia on Tuesday, after announcing its forces had recovered the bodies of two hostages.
  • The IDF said it has repatriated the bodies of Eden Zacharia, 28, and First Sergeant Ziv Dado, 36. Zacharia was kidnapped from the party near Re’im.
  • Egyptian sources told Sky News Arabia that Israel asked Egypt and Qatar to help mediate another cease-fire agreement with Hamas. There was no confirmation from Israel.

The West Bank: The Palestinian Health Ministry said seven Palestinians were killed in an IDF drone attack in the West Bank targeting members of Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, which is considered a part of the Palestinian Fatah organisation’s military wing.

  • This comes as the Israeli government continues to weigh whether to allow entry to Israel of work permit holders from the West Bank. The security and defence establishments support the move, in a bid to prevent the West Bank spiralling into further violence.
  • A “reformed” Palestinian Authority (PA) – of which Fatah is largest faction – remains the US’s preference for taking control of Gaza after the defeat of Hamas.

Israel-US: President Biden laid out his thoughts on the fighting in Gaza and the future for the Strip at a US fundraiser yesterday.

  • “We continue to provide military assistance to Israel as it goes after Hamas,” he said. “We’ll continue leading the world in delivering humanitarian assistance to the Palestinian civilians as well to emphasise to our friends in Israel the need to protect civilian life. And they understand it, the vast majority of the population.”
  • He later added what the US needs to do: “First and foremost, do everything in our power to hold Hamas accountable — every single thing in our power. They’re animals. They’re animals.”
  • “Secondly, we have to work toward bringing Israel together in a way that provides for the beginning of the option of… a two-state solution.”
  • Speaking of the current Netanyahu government’s position, President Biden said, “You cannot say there’s no Palestinian state at all in the future.” The president also warned that Israel was beginning to lose international support because of “indiscriminate” bombing.
  • US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Tuesday that he would soon be discussing with Israel officials their timetable for the war in Gaza.
  • With military officials estimating that achieving the operation’s goals in Gaza could take months, maintaining US support is crucial to Israel being able to withstand international pressure to cease its operation before then.
  • PM Netanyahu also clarified that Israel and the US “have differences regarding ‘the day after Hamas.'” Following Biden’s comments, Netanyahu posted a video in which he said, “I won’t allow Israel to repeat the mistake of Oslo. I won’t allow, after the immense sacrifice made by our citizens and fighters, for us to put [into power] in Gaza people who teach terrorism, support terrorism, finance terrorism. Gaza won’t be either Hamastan or Fatahstan.”
  • This is Netanyahu’s second reference to the Oslo process in the last few days. He made a similar connection to the US’s proposed steps towards a two state solution after the defeat of Hamas at a meeting of the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee on Monday.
  • Netanyahu has publicly confirmed that his government has no intention to reoccupy the Gaza Strip in the long term, nor to allow Israeli resettlement there. However, the prospect of a post-Hamas interim in which Israel retains a security presence in the Strip is likely to put the US and Israel at loggerheads.
  • Partially responding to Biden’s comments, Daniel Hagari said that the IDF makes every effort to prevent civilian casualties, adding: “Even when things get said, the right thing to do is to show and explain with facts. We know how to explain exactly how we act with precision, based on intelligence, even when we are operating on the ground against Hamas’s centres of gravity in a way to differentiate the civilians, who aren’t involved in terrorism, from the terrorist objectives.”
  • The IDF has opened the Nitzana and Kerem Shalom crossings to enable security screening of aid. This includes trucks containing water, food, medical supplies and shelter equipment that will then be forwarded to the international aid organisations. The goods will continue to enter via the Rafah crossing from Egypt.

The north: Following mortar and antitank fire against Israel, the IDF launched a series of attacks on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon.

  • The IDF also identified three launches from – two of which fell inside Syrian territory and one which landed in an open area in Israel.
  • According to a statement issued early Wednesday, Israeli tanks and attack helicopters targeted Hezbollah missile launching sites and other terrorist infrastructure in Lebanon, as well as military infrastructure and positions belonging to the Syrian army.
  • Israel maintains that the pre-October 7th status quo on the northern border cannot be returned to, and that that Hezbollah, and its elite Radwan force in particular, must be moved north of the Litani river, as called for by UN Resolution 1701.
  • The US and France have made efforts to induce the Lebanese government to act to remove Hezbollah fighters from the border area, but Israel has also affirmed that if diplomatic initiatives fail it will be forced to take military action to secure the north.

The international arena: The United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday demanded an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war. The resolution garnered 153 votes in favour, while 23 countries abstained from the vote. General Assembly resolutions are non-binding. This follows the US vetoing a Security Council vote, which would have been binding, on Friday calling for a ceasefire.

  • Israeli Ambassador to the UN Gilad Erdan said “not only does this resolution fail to condemn Hamas for crimes against humanity, it does not mention Hamas at all. This will only prolong the death and destruction in the region, that is precisely what a ceasefire means,” he said.
  • He added that the only intention of Hamas is to destroy Israel and that the group has declared that it will repeat its atrocities again and again until Israel ceases to exist. Erdan said that a ceasefire means one thing only – “the survival of Hamas.”
  • Both Austria and the US tabled amendments that failed to pass. Austria’s inserted the phrase, “held by Hamas and other groups” in relation to the hostages still being held in Gaza as well as inserting the word “immediate” in reference to ensuring humanitarian access. The US amendment called for wording to be inserted “unequivocally” rejecting and condemning “the heinous terrorist attacks by Hamas that took place in Israel starting October 7th 2023 and the taking of hostages” as the first operative paragraph. The Austrian draft amendment secured 89 for, 61 against and 20 abstentions while the US draft amendment saw 84 in favour, 62 against and 25 abstaining. Both failed under the two-thirds rule.
  • Hamas welcomed the UN vote and urged the international community to pressure Israel to abide by decision.

December 12, 2023

IDF captures over 500 terrorists

  • “Since the end of the operational pause, the IDF and Shin Bet apprehended approximately 140 Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists in the Gaza Strip.”
  • “In the past month, a total of over 350 Hamas terrorist operatives were apprehended by the IDF and Shin Bet. In addition, over 120 Islamic Jihad terrorist operatives were apprehended.”
  • Some of the detainees surrendered, whilst others were captured.
  • In addition to the 500, those that were identified as non-combatants were released to the safe zone in the south.
  • On Monday evening IDF Spokesperson Hagari said the IDF are “intensifying their combat in the main Hamas strongholds in the Gaza Strip.”
  • To emphasise their control on the ground, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi alongside head of the Shin Bet Bar held a situational assessment in the centre of Khan Yunis.
  • Halevi said, ״there is big pressure here. I think that the surrendering, the people coming out and raising their hands, is also a break in their spirit. It accelerates our accomplishments, in the end, we want to progress quickly. We are securing our accomplishments in the northern part of the Gaza Strip, the entrance in the southern part of the Strip, and also deep down into the ground – all of these places, all of these intensifications, are very important for our accomplishments.”
  • Defence Minister Gallant related to the fighting on Monday evening saying, “the Hamas battalions in Jabalia and Shajaiya in the north of the Gaza Strip are on the verge of being disbanded. Hundreds turn themselves in, including terrorists who participated in the massacre in the communities surrounding the Gaza Strip. The terrorists who turn themselves in tell of a lack of weapons and food and of the betrayal of their commanders and senior Hamas officials who took care of themselves and abandoned the military operatives to die in battle. The dismantling of Hamas will also continue in Khan Yunis. Terrorists have two choices: surrender or die.”
  • In northern Gaza, the IDF hit more sites where rockets had been launched. In Jabalya, they exposed a site that had been firing rockets toward Sderot. The IDF announced that following a raid they found, “approximately 250 rockets, shells, and RPGs that were ready for use, as well as other weapons and military equipment. IDF troops also struck a weapon production factory where they located hundreds of grenades, rockets, and M72 LAW rockets.”
  • In the southern Strip, four IDF reservists were killed when an explosive device was detonated during a raid on a “terror infrastructure sites” close to a school.
  • In parallel to the fighting, in an effort to increase into Gaza Strip the IDF opened the Nitzana and Kerem Shalom crossings to enable security screening of the aid. This includes trucks containing water, food, medical supplies and shelter equipment that will then be forwarded to the international aid organisations. The good will continue to enter via the Rafah crossing from Egypt.

Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee: Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke yesterday at a meeting of the Knesset committee, where he pushed back against demands from his left to pursue a two state solution, and from his right to reoccupy and resettle the Gaza Strip once Hamas has been defeated.

  • Labour leader Merav Michaeli asked Netanyahu about post-war planning and the need for a two-state vision, to which he replied, “Oslo was the original sin. After Oslo there was an identical number of people killed. The problem isn’t in the agreement but rather brought the most anti-Zionist and anti-Jewish element to the heart of the country.”
  • Far-right MK Limor Sonn Har Melech’s (Jewish Power) demanded that Israel reoccupy Gaza, to which Netanyahu said “we can occupy, we can annex—but at what cost? So we will have settled, let’s say. You’ve got to think of the cost.”
  • Netanyahu stated that his goal was for the military operation to defeat Hamas and disarm the Strip, and for the Arab world and Gulf states to take charge of Gazan rehabilitation. “I believe that the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia will support the rehabilitation of the Strip,” he said, despite neither state having given any public indication it will.
  • The humanitarian situation in the Strip was discussed, with MKs from the right taking a hard line. Tally Gotliv (Likud) criticised the Israeli acceptance of American demands. “Why isn’t there a siege on Gaza,” she asked. “Why are we such defeatists? Why do we take the United States into account?”
  • Likud MK Danny Danon once more raised the prospect of the international community re-homing Gazans who chose to leave.
  • The US has made repeatedly clear its insistence that a Palestinian entity assume control in Gaza after Hamas (its preference is for a “reformed” Palestinian Authority) and that reoccupation is unthinkable. There is international consensus that forcing or encouraging Gazans to leave the Strip is also unthinkable, and no Israeli moves have been made in this direction.

Lebanon border: There were further exchanges of fire in the north.

  • Shooting was reported towards the town of Ma’a lot, Metula and Shtula. The IDF responded with targeted fire to the source as well as striking Hezbollah infrastructure posts.
  • On Monday night Hagari warned, “terrorist organisations will pay a very heavy price in Lebanon for any attack on civilian communities. We will strike with force and determination and will not allow this firing to continue towards civilians. This is how we will continue to operate in the north and will exact a price from terrorist organizations, especially the Hezbollah terrorist organization, which bears responsibility for this.”
  • More than 100,000 Israelis have been forced to leave their homes in the north. Defence Minister Gallant recently made clear Israel’s refusal to return to the status quo, and that Hezbollah, and its elite Radwan force in particular, must be returned beyond the Litani river, as called for by UN Resolution 1701.
  • The US and France have made efforts to induce the Lebanese government to act to remove Hezbollah fighters from the border area, but Israel has also affirmed that if diplomatic initiatives fail it will be forced to take military action to secure the north.
  • Hezbollah is equipped with a rocket and missile arsenal of around 150,000, some ten times Hamas’s stockpile.

Israel-US: US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and War Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz spoke by phone yesterday, Gantz telling Blinken that “the international community must act against the state of Lebanon to stop the aggression in the border area.”

  • Gantz also conveyed to Blinken his “profound appreciation” over the US using its UN Security Council veto last week to defeat a resolution calling for a ceasefire.
  • According to the State Department, the two also discussed “ongoing efforts to facilitate the safe return of all remaining hostages, further increase levels of humanitarian assistance and prevent the conflict from expanding.”
  • Blinken also stressed “the urgent need for affirmative steps to de-escalate tensions in the West Bank and reiterated that Israel must take all possible measures to avoid civilian harm” and “emphasised that the United States remains committed to advancing tangible steps towards the realisation of a Palestinian state.”
  • It is the latest example of Blinken sidestepping his opposite number, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen, by choosing to deal with other senior government figures instead.
  • US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is expected to be the next senior US official to visit Israel.

December 11, 2023

IDF continues its ground offensive

Gaza Strip: Over the weekend, the fighting continued to focus on Shajaiya and Jabalya in the north as well as Khan Yunis in the south.

  • According to the IDF, they are conducting raids on “terrorist strongholds, eliminating terrorists, and locating and destroying terrorist infrastructure. In addition, IDF naval troops are operating off the coast of the Gaza Strip, supporting IDF ground troops and striking terror targets from the sea.”
  • The IDF announced last night that the new commander of the Shajaiya battalion was killed in an air strike, a few days after his predecessor was killed.
  • On Sunday night, IDF Spokesperson Hagari declared that the IDF had completed its takeover of Palestine Square in the heart of Gaza City. He said: “Palestine Square is where Yahya Sinwar’s office is located, it is where government offices are located, it is where senior Hamas leaders’ assets are located and that’s where a terrorist network of tunnels is located. These are strategic tunnels in the sense that they run from northern Gaza City to Shifa Hospital.”
  • Since the end of the operational pause, the Israeli Air Force has struck over 3,500 targets in the Gaza Strip and overall over 22,000 Hamas targets.
  • Despite IDF advances, Hamas are still firing rockets into southern Israel.

Lebanon border: Over the weekend, fighting has continued in a similar pattern, with Hezbollah firing rockets, anti-tank missiles and launching UAVs into northern Israel.

  • Yesterday IDF Chief of Staff visited the northern border and told troops, “for the return to all the communities, both in the south and in the north – first, we need to return to a different situation, and return to both safety and a sense of security. There is a military way to do this, the beginning of which is also what you are doing here, to damage, to deter, to kill Hezbollah operatives, to demonstrate our superiority.”
  • On Sunday night, Hezbollah launched several rockets. According to the IDF, “one of the rockets was launched from 20 metres away from a United Nations compound.”
  • “In doing so, the terrorist organisation endangers the lives of UNIFIL soldiers and continues to systematically violate UNSC Resolution 1701. The UNIFIL Head of Mission and Force Commander was notified of the incident.”
  • This morning eight rockets were launched into northern Israel, six were intercepted, two landed in open areas
  • The IDF continues to return fire to the source, and also target Hezbollah compounds from where their fighters emerge.
  • Hezbollah has publicly confirmed 100 of its fighters killed since October 7th, though the IDF believes the number could be higher.
  • Overall, six IDF soldiers and four Israeli civilians have been killed in the north.

Context: In Gaza, the IDF is making significant progress in its ground offensive but appears still far from achieving its two main objectives of removing Hamas from power and returning the remaining 137 hostages.

  • The latest estimate is that 7,000 Hamas fighters have been killed, including half of Hamas’s battalion and company commanders.
  • As a result of the intense fighting, the IDF announced the deaths of another four soldiers this morning, taking the total since the beginning of the land incursion to 101.
  • On Friday, the debate at the UN Security Council underlined once more how reliant Israel is on the US when they vetoed a motion demanding a ceasefire. The UK abstained, whilst all 13 other counties supported the motion.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu called on other countries to recognise that it is a contradiction in terms to support the destruction of Hamas while also calling for a ceasefire. He said Israel would continue its just war to eliminate Hamas and to achieve all the other war objectives.
  • Placing Israeli flags and other symbols inside Gaza serves a short term purpose for confirming the IDF are in control and is part of their psychological warfare against Hamas, but should not be construed as an Israeli statement to remain there in the long term.
  • There is also significant debate in Israel over the wisdom of releasing the images of Palestinian prisoners in their underwear.
  • Security officials have explained the operational necessity for them to remove their clothes to ensure none of them are wearing an explosive suicide vest, but that does not mean they need to be photographed at that moment, or that once checked they cannot put their clothes back on.
  • The arrested men were captured in northern Gaza, and once arrested they were questioned. So far around 40 per cent were found to be terrorists or members of Hamas. The remaining 60 per cent were released into the safe zones in southern Gaza.
  • Some of the arrested Hamas men are thought to hold valuable information.
  • The fighters who have surrendered attests to the erosion of Hamas’s fighting capabilities, however, there is still thought to be a vast network of fighters underground.
  • Another significant issue on the political agenda is whether to allow Palestinians from the West Bank with work permits to re-enter into Israel. It is understood that the prime minister and the security establishment support a limited return, primarily over concerns that exacerbating economic hardship that could lead to increased violence. However, there was almost no support for this in the socio-economic cabinet.
  • The issue will soon be discussed in the security cabinet.

Looking ahead: The IDF could complete the takeover of the Shajaiya and Jabalya strongholds in the next few days, but the operation in Khan Yunis could still last several weeks.

  • The timing will be determined both by operational considerations and the extent of the US providing diplomatic support.
  • Even if the operation in Khan Yunis is completed, it is currently unclear if the IDF will be able to extend the ground operation to other areas in central Gaza or Rafah in the south.
  • IDF Spokesperson Hagari maintains that the IDF will target all members of Hamas’s leadership. On Sunday night he said, “Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, Marwan Issa—that trio—we’ve got to reach them. That’s our job. And we intend to reach them. However long it takes, we will reach them. Them, and the other Hamas leaders.

December 8, 2023

Intense fighting continues across the Gaza Strip

Gaza Strip: The IDF continues to operate across the Gaza Strip, engaging in battles in five separates locations; in northern Gaza the IDF is fighting in Jabalya, Shajaiya, Bet Hanoun and Shita; in the south it is now in the heart of Khan Yunis.

  • Overall the IDF confirmed they have struck 450 targets in the last day, killing “numerous terrorists”.
  • The IDF, “struck from the air, sea, and ground as IDF troops operating in the Gaza Strip continued extensive battles with terrorists. The troops continue to operate to locate and destroy underground tunnel shafts, weapons, and additional terror infrastructure.”
  • In addition, “Israeli Navy forces used precise ammunition to strike dozens of terror infrastructure sites used by the Hamas naval forces in the central and southern Gaza Strip…included observation posts, and storage compounds containing weapons.”
  • For the first time footage emerged of dozens of men stripped down to their underwear, handcuffed and blindfolded, having surrendered inside Jabaliya.
  • There was also more “close-quarter combat” in Shajaiya. Forces continued to expose tunnel shafts, including inside a school, and rocket launchers in the area.
  • During the day an additional seven tunnel shafts were found, and troops “eliminated dozens of terrorists and located a large amount of ammunition, explosives and weapons.”
  • The IDF released body camera footage they found on a combatant having eliminated the cell armed with RPGs and AK-47s.
  • Hamas continues to launch rockets into Israel, some launched from within the declared humanitarian safe zone in the south. According to the IDF 12 rockets were fired from there towards Beer Sheva.
  • The IDF also revealed that earlier in the week, the Air Force “eliminated Abdel Aziz Rantisi, a senior terrorist operative from Hamas’ military intelligence unit. Rantisi had been responsible for field intelligence in the Gaza Strip and participated in the planning of the October 7th massacre.”
  • Five more IDF soldiers have been killed in action over the last day. This included the son of former IDF Chief of Staff and current minister in the war cabinet Gadi Eisenkot. 91 IDF personnel have fallen since the ground incursion began.

Northern front: Hezbollah continues its same pattern of attacks across the northern border.

  • On Thursday Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 12 separate attacks.
  • A 60 year old farmer was killed in Matat by an anti-tank missile. Four Israeli civilians have been killed in the north since the war began.
  • In another attack two IDF soldiers were wounded near Shtula.
  • The IDF continues to respond and strike Hezbollah positions. Overall atleast 93 Hezbollah fighters have been killed so far.  In addition, Islamic Jihad confirmed two of their operatives were also killed yesterday in southern Lebanon.
  • There were also three rockets fired from , landing in open areas in the Golan Heights.

Context: Israel has now been at war for two months during which the IDF have hit over 20,000 targets inside the Gaza Strip.

  • The IDF has killed an estimated 6,000 combatants, also injuring several thousand. The overall Palestinian death toll is estimated at over 15,000. Whilst the Israeli public is less exposed to the suffering of the Palestinians, there is sympathy for the plight of Gazan civilians, as most see Hamas to blame for having initiated the war.
  • Channel 12 News included the assessment that the IDF have killed 2 out of the 5 Hamas division commanders, 20 of the 24 battalion commanders and almost 50 per cent of junior field commanders. Approximately 70 per cent of the buildings in northern Gaza are estimated to be uninhabitable.
  • On Arab media there are growing examples of Gazans blaming Hamas for initiating this disaster on their own people, whist their leaders continue to hide underground. Hamas operatives have also been accused of diverting the , earmarked for the civilian population.
  • The surrender of around 150 men in Jabalya is an important development. Most of them are thought to be combatants, but that will be confirmed as they are processed. Although this is  just the first instance, it’s a significant indicator of breaking Hamas’s fighting spirit.
  • The fighting in Khan Yunis is now considered a decisive battle, central to the war aim of defeating Hamas. On a tactical level, an IDF victory would leave the rest of the southern Hamas battalions isolated.

Looking ahead: The Israeli leadership has not set any time limit on the operation, with fighting in Khan Yunis expected to continue till the end of the year and possibly beyond.

  • While Israel has retained the support of key allies including the US and UK, it is not considered to be indefinite, with speculation that the IDF will have until the end of 2023. The international community is particularly troubled by the conditions of Gaza’s civilian population, which has led to Israel allowing in more fuel, despite concern that some will be taken by Hamas to support their fighting capacity.
  • Israel is still waiting for the Red Cross to be allowed access to visit the remaining 138 Israeli hostages, still captive inside Gaza.

December 7, 2023

IDF advances in Jabalya in the north, and Khan Yunis in the south

  • In parallel, intense fighting continues in the south, especially in the key city of Khan Yunis, where Israel believes the Hamas leadership is now located, along with four of Hamas’s 24 battalions.
  • By last night, troops had surrounded Khan Yunis and began to operate in its centre. The IDF said it had “launched a combined attack on the area of ​​the city of Khan Yunis, against the ‘centres of gravity’ of the Hamas terror organisation.”
  • Troops captured Hamas strongholds, finding weapons and intelligence materials, and located around 30 tunnel shafts which were then destroyed during the ongoing battles, as well as a weapons depot inside a mosque.
  • IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said last night: “In the last 48 hours, in Jabalya, Shajaiya, and Khan Yunis, we breached the defence lines. The terrorists are coming out from underground and fighting our forces. And our forces are winning in close-quarters combat. They have the upper hand.”
  • The IDF has announced the deaths in action of Staff Sgt. Amit Bonzel, 22, and Staff Sgt. Alemnew Emanuel Feleke, also 22. Their deaths bring the total suffered in the ground operation to 86.
  • Amid dire humanitarian conditions in the Strip, thousands of Gazans fled Khan Yunis and headed for the Rafah area, some accusing Hamas of stealing civilian aid.
  • Last night, the wider security cabinet endorsed the war cabinet’s recommendation to double the quantity of fuel allowed into the Gaza Strip daily to 120,000 litres. Finance Minister Smotrich and National Security Minister Ben Gvir voted against the motion.
  • Also last night, Israel reacted angrily to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres invoking Article 99 of the UN Charter to convene the UN Security Council in a bid to call for a ceasefire.
  • Israeli Ambassador to the UN Gilad Erdan called Guterres’s action a “a new moral low,” while Foreign Minister Cohen wrote on X: “Guterres’ tenure is a danger to world peace. His request… constitutes support of the Hamas terrorist organisation and an endorsement of the murder of the elderly, the abduction of babies and the rape of women. Anyone who supports world peace must support the liberation of Gaza from Hamas.”

The north: Defence Minister Gallant met local leaders of northern border towns yesterday and presented two options for the estimated 80,000 displaced northern Israelis being able to return home.

  • “There’s the option that we [Israel and Lebanon] come to a different agreement,” he said, “which might resemble Resolution 1701, through mediation by international actors. Our presence, our existence and our security  will be respected, and we will respect the other side.”
  • “The second option is that we’ll be forced to do that by force. We don’t want war, but if we reach a situation in which we need to entrench security here, we won’t hesitate, just like we didn’t hesitate in the south.”
  • An air raid siren sounded in Moshav Margaliot on the Lebanese border this morning.

Context: As fighting resumed after Hamas broke the ceasefire, Jabalya and Shajaiya remained the last Hamas strongholds to be suppressed in northern Gaza. They have long been considered some of the strongest Hamas positions, partly due to their close geographic location and dense urban concentration, close to the Israeli border.

  • In Khan Yunis, the IDF is fighting close to the home of Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar, though he is thought to be hiding elsewhere – likely along with the rest of Hamas’s Gazan leadership somewhere in the Strip’s vast network of tunnels.
  • Many of the 86 IDF casualties killed so far appear to have been attacked at close range, as Hamas fighters emerge from below ground to deploy rocket-propelled grenades and sniper fire before retreating below again.
  • As it continues fighting in the south, Israel faces competing dilemmas. Operationally, achieving the war’s aims of the total defeat of Hamas in the whole Strip and rendering Gaza free from terrorist threat will take time.
  • Against this, Israel is operating against the international diplomatic clock. As Israel Hayom‘s Yoav Limor reports this morning: “Israeli officials realise that for a host of reasons—international pressure, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, the state of Israel’s economy—Israel has about two or three weeks to complete the current intensive operation in Gaza before being forced to move on to another modus operandi.”
  • The decision to allow more fuel into Gaza should be seen in this context, with the US thought to be linking support for continued Israeli action to the greater flow of .
  • US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters yesterday that “we have talked to Israel “about timetables. I don’t want to share that because Israel has already kind of telegraphed precisely the location of its ground operation and I don’t want to be the one telegraphing timetables.”
  • UN Resolution 1701 was passed in 2006 following the Second Lebanon War. It called for “the deployment of Lebanese forces to Southern Lebanon, parallel withdrawal of Israeli forces behind the Blue Line, strengthening the UN force (UNIFIL) to facilitate the entry of Lebanese Forces in the region and the establishment of a demilitarised zone between the Blue Line and the Litani River.”
  • It has been widely breached by Hezbollah, which continues to deploy beyond the Litani and its elite Radwan forces have established bases along the border.
  • Reports have suggested that the US and the French have offered financial incentives to the Lebanese government to act to remove Hezbollah terrorists from the border area, while Amos Hochstein, the US official who brokered the 2022 Israel-Lebanon maritime agreement, is thought to be looking to pursue a similar deal on the land border.
  • As soon as Hamas broke the ceasefire last Friday, Hezbollah resumed its attacks on northern Israel. Amid multiple attacks, 12 people were wounded when an anti-tank missile hit the border town of Beit Hillel on Sunday. Tuesday saw Hezbollah claim responsibility for at least nine attacks on northern Israel, including in Tel Hai, Shtula, and Kiryat Shmona.
  • Despite its constant targeting of Israel since October 7th, Hezbollah has not expanded the conflict in the manner Hamas wished. The assessment remains that the group, and its Iranian paymaster, do not see it as in their interests to engage in all-out war with Israel at this time, and have therefore restricted their attacks so far to close proximity to the border.
  • On Tuesday, Israel took the unusual step of publicly saying it “regretted an incident” in which the Lebanese army suffered casualties. The IDF explained they had “acted in self-defence against a threat that was detected in a well-known launching ground and Hezbollah observation post.”

Looking ahead: UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps has announced he is set to visit the region this week.

  • His office said he would meet with Gallant to “address the current security situation and Israel’s next steps” and with Palestinian Authority Minister General Ziad Hab Al-Reeh, “to address the urgent need for measures to improve security for Palestinians in the West Bank.”
  • “The UK has made clear,” a statement said, “that Israel has the right to defend itself against terror, restore its security and bring the hostages home, but it must abide by international humanitarian law and take all possible measures to protect civilians.”
  • Sullivan is also set to arrive in the region this week, while it is also thought that a delegation of French political and security officials is expected to visit Israel in the coming days to discuss the Lebanese border issue.

December 7, 2023

BICOM Director Richard Pater speaks to The Sun

SRAEL’S IDF ‘closes in’ on Hamas leaders but is time running out to eradicate terror group? Director, BICOM, Richard Pater speaks to The Sun about the situation on the ground right now, but warns the threat ‘won’t go away over night’.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

December 6, 2023

IDF: “Most intense day of fighting so far”

Gaza Strip: Head of the IDF Southern Command Maj. Gen. Yaron Finkelman said Tuesday was the “most intense day of fighting so far in the ground manoeuvre in terms of the number of terrorists killed, the number of firefights and in the use of ground and air fire.”

  • The IDF is engaged in fighting three Hamas strongholds simultaneously, in Jabalya and Shajaiya in the north and in the “heart” of Khan Yunis in the south.
  • Speaking yesterday Prime Minister Netanyahu assessed, “so far, we’ve killed roughly half of Hamas’s battalion commanders. We’re setting accounts with everyone who murdered, raped and slaughtered our people. The ground shook in Khan Yunis and Jabalya. We are winning every battle, but that has a painful price.”
  • Yesterday seven IDF soldiers were killed in combat, with the IDF announcing two more fatalities this morning.
  • As part of the fighting, dozens of Hamas combatants were killed and infrastructure substantially damaged.
  • The fighting has included troops entering buildings on foot, going house to house and engaging in combat in close quarters.

Home front: Despite the intense fighting, Hamas continues to launch rocket attacks against Israeli communities.

  • Hamas fired two barrages of rockets at Israel on Tuesday, one at central Israel and the other at southern Israel. One of the rockets directly hit an apartment building in Ashkelon. Two elderly women sustained light injuries from shrapnel in that attack.
  • At least 15 rockets were fired towards central Israel, with at least three rocket landing in the Tel Aviv area, including inside a school that was empty at the time. Footage showed a rocket landing very close to two youths on a street in Tel Aviv.
  • Separately, the war cabinet ministers met with representatives of the hostage’s families and heard testimonies from some of the released hostages (more details below in the Israeli media summary).
  • Facing harsh criticism Netanyahu said afterwards, “I fully share the deep concerns of the families whose loved ones are still being held in Gaza. I understand the uncertainty. I understand the intolerable difficulty. I told the families that we aren’t sparing any effort to get their loved ones back. Getting all of our hostages back home is one of the three supreme objectives that were set in the war, and those objectives serve one another.”

Lebanon: Hezbollah continues to fire rockets, mortars and anti-tank missiles towards northern Israel.

  • In one barrage, around 20 rockets were fired towards Kiryat Shmona and Bet Hillel.
  • In response, the IDF returned fired at the source and struck various Hezbollah positions.
  • In an unusual statement, the IDF said it “regretted an incident” in which the Lebanese army suffered casualties. The IDF explained they had “acted in self-defence against a threat that was detected in a well-known launching ground and Hezbollah observation post.” It added that the incident was under review.

Context: On the 60th day of the war Israel is simultaneously engaged in fighting in three critical areas within the Gaza Strip, both in the north and the south.

  • The intensity of the fighting attests to their tactical ability and resoluteness, although it could still take weeks to subdue Hamas. There is ongoing concern that the diplomatic timeline may cut the fighting short.
  • Israel has continued to call for civilian evacuations, to avoid civilian casualties. So far it is estimated about one third of the population has left Khan Yunis through a prescribed humanitarian corridor.
  • In addition COGAT released a photo of the convoy of aids trucks queuing to enter Gaza, claiming the holdup was due to the UN.
  • Despite hostage family calls to do a deal even at the price of releasing arch terrorists from Israeli prisons, a deal of that nature does not appear on the agenda. Instead the IDF believes that the fighting serves the goal of increasing the pressure on Hamas to free the hostages.
  • Khan Yunis is now considered the most fortified concentration of Hamas’s miliary forces, including four of its 24 battalions. It could also be the current location of the senior Hamas leadership, though tunnels are thought to extend from Khan Yunis to Rafah. It could also be the location of the hostages, making the military operation even more complicated.
  • The latest assessment from IDF Southern Command estimates that overall 6,000 Hamas fighters have been killed and several thousand more have been wounded.
  • 84 IDF soldiers have been killed in the ground operation, many of them as a result of anti-tank missiles fired at very close range. Hamas fighters have been able to emerge from tunnels, attack and then disappear underground.
  • Earlier in the week, the IDF said they uncovered over 800 tunnel shafts and destroyed 500 in northern Gaza. However, with hundred of kilometres of tunnel this could represent only a small fraction of the network.
  • According to the Wall Street Journal, US officials saying that Israel is considering pumping seawater into the tunnels, in an effort to destroy the network and force concealed Hamas fighters to the surface.

Looking ahead: As part of the US administration’s close coordination with Israel, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan is expected to soon visit Israel. He will be particularly keen to discuss Israel’s future plan for Gaza.

  • Beyond the advances so far, the final area that Israel will need to target will be the southern most city of Rafah. This is the main route of the smuggling tunnels that are used to import weapons. This will be crucial to ensure Hamas are not able to rearm in the future.
  • Netanyahu also related to ‘the day after’, saying “Israel would have to guarantee that the Gaza Strip was demilitarised. Only one force can guarantee the Gaza Strip’s demilitarisation: the IDF. No international force can be responsible for that. I won’t shut my eyes and I won’t accept any other arrangement.”

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