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Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Key background
  • Hamas is an Islamist Palestinian nationalist movement which currently governs the Gaza Strip. It is proscribed by the UK and in the majority of western countries.
  • Its primary state backers are Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. It is also active in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon.
  • Since seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has continuously launched attacks against Israel and weaponised civilian infrastructure by embedding itself into schools, mosques, and hospitals.
  • Hamas’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel killed 1200, and over 250 hostages were subsequently taken to the Gaza Strip.

Updated December 27, 2023

IDF expands fighting into central Gaza

Gaza Strip: The IDF is now operating in four central areas of Al-Boureij, Al-Maghazi, Nuseirat and Deir al-Balah.

  • All these areas include Hamas fighters with approximately 1000 Hamas operatives in Al-Boureij.
  • In addition, the IDF continues to operate in the north and south of the Gaza Strip.
  • IDF Chief of Staff Halevi gave an assessment on Tuesday that the IDF is close to concluding the: “dismantlement of Hamas’s battalions in the northern Gaza Strip. Now we are making a concerted effort in the southern Gaza Strip, Khan Yunis, the camps in the centre and so on. We are ratcheting up military pressure in various ways, with force and guile. That pressure will facilitate the attainment of the war’s objectives: dismantling Hamas and getting the hostages back.”
  • The fighting continues to exact a heavy cost. Four IDF soldiers were killed on Tuesday night, which follows several fatalities over the last few days. Overall since the ground offensive began 164 soldiers have fallen with over 870 injured.
  • The Palestinian fatalities have been far higher. According to Hamas figures, over 20,000 Gazans have been killed. The IDF estimates that this includes over 7,000 Hamas operatives. The Hamas Ministry of Health casualty number also does not distinguish between those killed by Israel and those by Hamas. Almost 2,000 Hamas fired rockets have fallen inside Gaza.
  • Despite IDF operations, Hamas are still able to launch rockets into Israel. On Tuesday a rocket struck the Synagogue in Kibbutz Saad.
  • This morning sirens sounded again in various communities in the Gaza periphery.

Iran: Iranian foreign minister threatens Israel following the assassination of a senior Revolutionary Guards officer in Damascus.

  • Razi Mousavi was an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) operative, with a rank of Brig. Gen. He was an important member of the Iranian military apparatus in and had been close to Qasem Soleimani before the latter’s assassination by the US in January 2020.
  • Mousavi was involved in arms smuggling operations from Iran, arms production in and channeling money to Hezbollah and other Shiite militias. His assassination suggests Israel has escalated its battle against Iranian proxies to also target Iranian operatives themselves.
  • Israel has been accused of killing Iranian officials in before, whether in targeted assassination operations or in attacks on weapons’ storehouses and other targets. Monday’s strike seems to have been aimed at killing Mousavi himself and sending a deterring message to Iran.
  • Separately, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Iran has returned to a rate of enriching to 60 per cent around 9 kg of uranium a month (previously 3 kg,). 60 per cent is close to weapons grade.

Lebanon: Hezbollah continues to launch rockets, mortars, drones and anti-tank missiles at both Israeli civilian and military targets.

  • On Tuesday 9 IDF troops were wounded while helping an Israeli civilian who had been previously wounded by an anti-tank missile that was fired at the St. Mary’s Greek-Orthodox Church in the northern village of Iqrit. The IDF killed the terrorist who fired the anti-tank missile.
  • Hezbollah attacks on Tuesday also included strikes on Moshav Dovev, Moshav Even Menachem and Kibbutz Adamit.
  • According to Lebanese reports, three people were killed last night in an Israeli Air Force strike on a house in Bint Jbeil, understood to be home of a Hezbollah commander.
  • Overall the Hezbollah have announced 129 fatalities of their operatives.
  • This morning 18 rockets were fired towards Rosh Hanikra with 6 intercepted. In addition, 10 mortars and rockets were fired at IDF positions on Mount Dov.

Context: Defence Minister Gallant said yesterday that Israel is under attack on seven fronts and has responded in no fewer than six. He was referring to Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, the West Bank, Yemen and Iran.

  • Iran is connected to all these fronts and although Israel has not formally claimed responsibility for the death of Mousavi, the targeted assassination of a senior IRGC has been perceived as a message to the Iranians.
  • In the Israeli government’s calculus all these fronts need to be considered.
  • Whilst the government’s priority remains dismantling Hamas inside Gaza, there are growing calls both internally and externally to address the day after fighting.  In the most recent war cabinet meeting earlier this week PM Netanyahu reportedly refused to discuss the plan to change the scope of IDF combat in the Gaza Strip.
  • The next stage of the war is supposed to reduce the number of IDF troops in the Gaza Strip.
  • Netanyahu’s top confidant Minister Dermer is in Washington to coordinate a plan for the next phase. The Biden administration favours a revitalised Palestinian Authority (PA), whilst Israel has rejected any possibility of Mahmoud Abbas’ PA being in charge of Gaza.
  • Dermer is expected to discuss Israel’s plans to transition to a low-intensity war, which is may happen towards the end of January, as well as questions pertaining to the civil administration of Gaza in the months ahead.
  • Dermer is also expected to raise Israel’s concerns about a shortfall in the supply of munitions for planes, and to ask the US to expedite arms shipments to Israel, especially so as to prepare for a possible escalation in hostilities along the northern border.
  • According to Yediot Ahronot, IDF officials say they estimate that 20 per cent of Hamas’s military troops have been killed so far. While the paper suggests others have a higher estimate, but none talk about complete decimation. Most of Hamas’s top military officials have survived and there is strong speculation that they have deliberately placed Israeli hostages in their close proximity, a move which further complicates IDF plans.
  • Although Hamas has lost most of its governmental strongholds, it hasn’t lost its control over the population. In a display of control earlier this week, Hamas policemen were seen on the streets of southern Gaza.
  • Despite IDF’s current deployment across Gaza, it is yet to operate in the area of the Philadelphi Corridor on the southern border. This area is seen as crucial for disabling Hamas smuggling tunnels, but is highly sensitive due to the proximity of Egypt.
  • The hostages issue remains prominent inside Israel. Relatives of the 129 people still in Hamas captivity continue to demonstrate and demand the government prioritises their release.
  • On Monday, Hamas rejected a proposed Egyptian plan that would involve a ceasefire in exchange for the release of more hostages, and lead to a broader agreement involving a permanent ceasefire along with an overhaul of leadership in Gaza.

Looking ahead: Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Halevi cautioned yesterday, that the war “will continue for many months more, and we will use different methods so that the achievement is maintained over time.”

  • In an effort to increase the supply of , Israel has reached agreement in principle with Cyprus and the UK to establish a maritime corridor for supplying goods and equipment to the Gaza Strip in the future.

December 21, 2023

IDF completes takeover of Hamas “Leaders’ Quarter”

  • IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari said: “From this infrastructure, they could move and spread out around the Strip. From the heart of Gaza City, they were able to go to Shifa Hospital, and from there to set out southward in ambulances and return to Shifa. [They were able to] enter the warren, head north and move around the area of Rantisi Hospital.”
  • “This completes our exposure of Hamas’ underground terror city in the north [of Gaza]. We’ll dismantle it, and target their strategic infrastructure. This operation extends to southern Gaza, reaching the subterranean hideouts of Hamas leaders in Khan Yunis,” he added.
  • “The ground operation will continue, aerial strikes persisting across the designated areas in Gaza. We’ve also engaged in Rafah. We will continue pursuing Hamas leadership throughout the Gaza Strip.”
  • Three IDF soldiers were killed in fighting in the Gaza Strip yesterday, and eight seriously wounded.
  • The dead were named as Sgt. Lavi Ghasi, 19; 1st Lt. Yaacov Elian, 20; and 1st Lt. Omri Shwartz, 21.
  • Hagari said “the IDF is intensifying the fighting” in Gaza. “We’ve transitioned to combat in Tuffah, adjacent to Shajaiya, completing our efforts in Jabalya, Beit Hanoun, Shajaiya, all facing Israeli Gaza border communities. Our aim is to shape security along the border, part of our fight against terror in these zones. We’re ensuring a changed security situation for Israeli residents when the time comes for their return”
  • Over the last 24 hours dozens of aircraft attacked about 230 Hamas targets in the Strip.
  • In Khan Yunis, the air force destroyed a rocket launcher and buildings in which terrorists were identified, as well as killing terrorists in the Shati area.
  • A rocket was fired from Gaza at Israel this morning, ending the longest lull in rocket fire since October 7th.
  • US Secretary of State Blinken spoke with UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron, French Foreign Minister Colonna and German Foreign Minister Baerbock about the “importance of urgently addressing humanitarian needs in Gaza, the imperative of minimizing civilian casualties, and the need to prevent the conflict’s further escalation.”
  • Reports have emerged that the three Israeli hostages accidentally killed by the IDF on Friday were caught on film by a camera mounted on a dog from an elite canine unit five days before their death. The footage was not monitored in real time, and only reviewed later, after the hostages had been killed.
  • There are reports of negotiations between Israel and Hamas for another pause in the fighting and a hostage release. White House National Security Council spokesperson Kirby said such discussions were “very serious.”

The north: Last night, a barrage of eight rockets was fired from Lebanon at Kiryat Shmona and the adjacent area. No injuries were reported. Four rocket launches at Israel from were detected with Hezbollah taking responsibility for the launch.

  • In response, Israeli forces returned fire and also attacked a Syrian Army position and IAF aircraft attacked a Hezbollah command centre inside Lebanese territory. Some of the Israeli strikes were as deep as 20 kilometres inside Lebanon.
  • In another incident, terrorists approached the border fence. Israeli troops fired on them and reported hits.
  • Gates to all civilian communities along the Israel-Lebanon border have been closed due to the threat of attack.

Context: The “Leaders’ Quarter” in Gaza City includes a network of intricate tunnels connecting apartments, offices, and hideouts. It is where Hamas’s governmental and military leadership including Ismail Haniyeh, Yayha Sinwar, and Mohammed Deif operated from.

  • The commander of the IDF’s 401st Brigade, Col. Benny Aharon, told Israeli media of the Leaders’ Quarter that: “Above ground is an entirely deceptive world. Entire clusters of houses that are designed  to look innocent and which supposedly belong to civilians, but which in reality serve as safe houses for terrorists or which, right beneath them, we found briefing rooms and meeting rooms where the Hamas government met. The above-ground world is connected to the underground world, and the underground world is connected to a world we call ‘the connected people.’ It is a long, large, intricate underground world they have built here over the course of decades.”
  • The underground city is fitted with blast doors and living quarters that make it possible for operatives to remain there for long periods.
  • Khan Yunis may constitute the last stage of the intensive part of the operation. The next stage of the IDF’s operation will likely focus on setting up a security zone that will act as a buffer between Gaza and the Israeli communities around it. The zone will be roughly a kilometre wide.
  • During this phase, IDF troops will redeploy inside Gaza, mainly in the north. A limited number of residents will likely begin to be allowed to return to specific neighbourhoods of Gaza City. The IDF will continue to carry out special raids and air strikes “until Hamas’s complete destruction,” as security cabinet ministers have put it.
  • Yesterday was the first day since October 7th that there were no rockets were fired from Gaza. Prior to the rocket launched this morning, the last rocket fired from Gaza was on Tuesday at 1600.
  • Talks over a potential new hostage deal involving the temporary suspension of hostilities continue, after Mossad chief Barnea met with the Qatari prime minister in Poland this week.
  • According to Israeli reports, Hamas has rejected an Israeli proposal for a week-long pause in exchange for the release of 40 hostages: women, children, and those elderly males requiring medical care.
  • At a press conference yesterday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said: “Israel has been very clear, including as recently as today, that it would welcome returning to a pause and the further release of hostages. The problem was, and has been, and remains Hamas.”
  • The humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip remains acute. The first stage of a water pipeline from Egypt to Gaza has been completed. The pipeline aims to provide clean water to 150,000 Gazans.
  • Israeli Foreign Minister Cohen was in Cyprus yesterday, where he toured the port of Larnaca and met with Cypriot Foreign Minister Kombos. Israel and Cyprus have been working on a Cyprus to Gaza maritime corridor for the transport of aid. The plan, which is thought to be able to begin effect in a month, will see international aid shipped to the port, checked by Israeli officials, and then boarded onto British, Greek, and Dutch ships for transport to Gaza.
  • “The Israeli DCO at the Erez crossing can be turned into a museum exhibit. We are disengaging entirely from Gaza,” Cohen said.

Looking ahead: After Arab efforts to draft a UN Security Council resolution yesterday failed due to US differences with the wording proposed, Blinken spoke with counterparts from Egypt and the UAE in an effort to find an alternative text.

  • Israeli media reports this morning that significant Arab states, the UAE and Saudi Arabia among them, are threatening to scale back their aid contributions unless the fighting in the Strip is ended in January.
  • Pressure from Israel’s allies to reduce the intensity of the fighting continues. Blinken said: “We continue to believe that Israel does not have to choose between removing the threat of Hamas and minimizing the toll on civilians in Gaza.  It has an obligation to do both and it has a strategic interest to do both.”
  • “The conflict will move and needs to move to a lower-intensity phase, and we expect to see and want to see a shift to more targeted operations with a smaller number of forces that’s really focused in on dealing with the leadership of Hamas, the tunnel network, and a few other critical things.”

December 20, 2023

IDF in control of Gaza City

Gaza Strip: Following weeks of intense fighting, military officials said yesterday that IDF forces now have complete freedom of operation inside Gaza City.

  • The neighbourhood of Jabalya has now been completely conquered, after around 1,000 combatants were killed and another 3,500 people were taken prisoner. Among the prisoners are around 500 suspected terrorists, some of whom participated in the October 7 massacre.
  • The IDF noted, “since the beginning of the ground operation in the Gaza Strip, IDF troops have identified about 1,500 tunnel shafts and underground passages belonging to Hamas. Most of these subterranean structures have been found beneath schools, hospitals, mosques, UN facilities and civilian institutions.”
  • Speaking on a tour of the Gaza border on Tuesday Defence Minister Gallant said, “in northern Gaza, operations are focused on completely purging the Gazan theatre and on-going underground, into the tunnels at enormous depths below ground.”
  • In the southern Gaza Strip, Gallant said, “Khan Yunis has become the new capital of terrorism. We are operating there; the operation will cross stages and will continue until we achieve our objectives. We will get to every place we need. We won’t relent from this place. We will put the senior members of this murderous organisation where they deserve to be: either in the cemetery or in prison.”

Lebanon border: Fighting continued to intensify along the northern border yesterday.

  • Air raid sirens were heard repeatedly throughout the day and several Hezbollah drones are thought to have crossed over Israeli airspace, which the IDF successfully intercepted.
  • In one incident near Yiftah, the IDF intercepted six launches from southern Lebanon.
  • In response, the Israeli Air Force continued to target Hezbollah cells responsible for attacks as well as Hezbollah infrastructure close to the border.

Context: In parallel to the fighting, renewed efforts to reach another deal to release more of the hostages continue.

  • There remain an estimated 129 Israelis still held captive by Hamas and other groups inside Gaza.
  • For the second time this week, as part of the pressure campaign, a new hostage video was released on Tuesday evening, this time by Palestinian Islamic Jihad. The recording is of two Israeli hostages: Gadi Mozes, 79, and Elad Katzir, 47, who were kidnapped from Kibbutz Nir Oz on October 7. Mozes’ wife, Efrat, was murdered that day. Katzir’s mother, Hannah was also kidnapped and was released last month. His father, Rami, was murdered.
  • It is estimated that some of the hostages may still be held underground in northern Gaza, further complicating military operations. The IDF are cognisant of their failure last week that led to the accidental killing of three hostages. It has since been revealed that the soldiers that killed them were unaware of the improvised signs for help written in Hebrew found by other troops in the vicinity.
  • Earlier this week, talks resumed between Mossad Director Barnea, CIA Director Burns and Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani in Poland.
  • Israel is prioritising the release of the women who were meant to be released in the last round, and then men over the age of 60 and those who are ill or with serious injuries.
  • In return, Israel is considering releasing Palestinian prisoners who were convicted of more serious acts of terrorism than in the previous deal.
  • According to Barak Ravid in Walla, Israel is prepared to agree to a one week pause in the fighting in exchange for the release of 40 Israeli hostages.
  • According to The Washington Post, as part of a hostage deal Israel would consider a two week ceasefire and would also gradually withdraw troops from northern Gaza.
  • Last time, Israel was able to secure the release of 80 hostages in the same timeline, but the ‘price’ for releasing men is considered higher.
  • Also on Tuesday, footage was released  of the director of the Kamal Adwan hospital in Jabaliya being interviewed by Shin Bet investigators. As part of his interrogation he revealed the duality of the hospital also serving as a base for Hamas to conduct operational activity. Among his revelations: 16 members of the hospital’s staff, including doctors and nurses also had roles in Hamas’s military wing. He also said that some of the hostages were held on site.
  • The IDF also conducted a review of shooting in the area of the Latin Church in Shajaiya on Sunday in which two women were killed. According to the IDF, the review found that “Hamas terrorists launched a Rocket Propelled Grenade at IDF troops from the vicinity of the church. The troops then identified three people in the vicinity, operating as spotters for Hamas by guiding their attacks in the direction of the IDF troops. In response, our troops fired towards the spotters and hits were identified. While this incident occurred in the area where the two women were reportedly killed, the reports received do not match the conclusion of our initial review which found that the IDF troops were targeting spotters in enemy lookouts. We are continuing our examination of the incident.”
  • They went on to note, “the IDF takes claims of strikes on sensitive sites very seriously, especially churches that are the holy sites for the Christian faith. The IDF directs its operations against the Hamas terrorist organisation and not against civilians, regardless of their religious affiliation. The IDF takes many measures to mitigate harm to civilians in the Gaza Strip. These efforts stand in contrast to Hamas that does everything in its power to endanger civilians and exploits them, as well as religious sites, as human shields for their terrorist activities.”

Looking ahead: Defence Minister Gallant confirmed that the “ground operation will be expanded to additional places.” There are several areas inside Gaza that the IDF has not yet entered including areas in central Gaza and Rafah in the south.

  • Due to the sensitivity and close proximity to Egypt, the security cabinet is expected to discuss the nature of operations in Rafah and along the border. An operation to some extent will be necessary to prevent Hamas replenishing arms though their smuggling routes in the future.
  • As Israel contemplates extending the fighting in the south, there is an understanding that they need to keep some infrastructure in place. In order for some entity to eventually take over, the water supply, some municipal services, schools must be protected. It is also likely that the displaced civilian population will need to remain in temporary accommodation for some time, and so (learning the lessons of other conflicts, such as Iraq) some infrastructure must be kept in place.
  • Foreign minister David Cameron will travel to Jordan and Egypt this week to push for a sustainable ceasefire and further humanitarian pauses in Gaza.

December 19, 2023

Hamas releases new hostage video

  • The men appeared gaunt, with their beards cropped deliberately Islamic style and read off a Hamas prepared message pleading for their release.
  • The video is the latest example of Hamas psychological warfare, with speculation that these three elderly men were chosen deliberately, to influence the next stage of a potential deal.
  • Meanwhile in Poland, Mossad Director David Barnea, Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani, and CIA Director Burns met to discuss a potential new hostage deal.
  • Israeli media reports suggest that the gaps between Israeli and Hamas expectations are large, with Israel prepared to offer a brief pause in fighting after the release of hostages, and Hamas insisting that a longer ceasefire be effected before any hostages are freed.
  • A new deal is thought to be the most immediate priority of the Biden Administration, and Burns instructed accordingly. US eagerness stems from a desire to both see Israeli hostages return home, and for the fighting in the Gaza Strip to be reduced in intensity.
  • Israel insists that any pause in fighting would be followed immediately by a return to intensive operations in pursuit of its war aims. Israel also argues that any Hamas concessions on hostages are due largely to military achievements, and that further progress will yield more hostage releases in the future.
  • The sense of national shock and anger prompted by last Friday’s friendly fire deaths of three hostages is also thought to have persuaded the Israeli government that the time is ripe for a fresh hostage negotiation.
  • Israel’s negotiating position is thought to be:
    • All negotiations with Hamas will be conducted under fire and there is to be no pause in the fighting until hostages are freed.
    • Second, the deal will resume from the point it broke off, meaning all the women still being held hostage should be freed first.
    • Third, Israel is insisting that the terms for the release of each category of hostage be clear, after the women, then the elderly and ill men.

US Secretary of Defence in Israel: Lloyd Austin arrived in Israel on Monday along with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Brown.

  • They met Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defence Minister Gallant and Minister Gantz and focused on a range of issues, including the Gaza offensive, the Houthis’ attacks on Israel and on international shipping and the ongoing tensions between Israel and Lebanon.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu highlighted the commonality in all those threats, saying, “this is a battle against the Iranian axis, the Iranian axis of terror.”
  • Secretary Austin noted this is his fourth visit to Israel as Secretary of Defence and his second since October 7th.  He said, “I’m here to underscore what President Biden has said again and again: our commitment to Israel is unshakeable.“
  • Austin added, “America’s commitment to Israel is unwavering and no individual, group or state should test our resolve.”
  • Austin announced, “in the Red Sea, we’re leading a multinational maritime taskforce to uphold the bedrock principle of freedom of navigation. Iran’s support for Houthi attacks on commercial vessels must stop. Now, we’ll continue to provide Israel with the equipment that you need to defend your country… including critical munitions, tactical vehicles and air defence systems.”
  • He also added, “we must get more humanitarian assistance in to the nearly two million displaced people in Gaza and we must distribute that aid better.
  • Later, in their joint press conference Defence Minister Gallant said, “our common enemies around the world are watching. They know that Israel’s victory is the victory of the free world, led by the United States. Our war is against the Hamas terrorist organisation, not the people of Gaza. We are fighting a brutal enemy that hides behind civilians.”
  • Gallant continued, “billions of dollars have been invested in Gaza, money that should have gone to civilian infrastructure, and instead, was used to build a network of tunnels, hundreds of kilometres long, equipped with military facilities.”
  • Gallant added, “in northern Gaza our troops have eliminated thousands of terrorists, destroyed military infrastructure, and dismantled most of the battalions operating in the area.”
  • “In southern Gaza, In Khan Younis, we are precise and focused on eliminating Hamas leadership and military infrastructure.”
  • Regarding IDF conduct, Gallant said, “unlike our enemies, we are defending our values, and we operate according to international law. The IDF is operating to minimise harm to the civilian population. We are also working with international partners, to facilitate the delivery of . Yet, anytime we discuss humanitarian issues, we must remember, the 129 hostages still held in Gaza. This is the most humanitarian issue.”

Gaza Strip: The IDF has today announced that Master Sgt. (res.) Daniel Yacov Ben Harosh, 31 and Cpt. (res.) Rotem Yosef Levy were killed fighting in the northern Gaza Strip yesterday. Yesterday, the deaths of seven other soldiers were announced, with the total casualties since the beginning of the ground operation now standing at 131.

  • Fighting continues throughout the Strip, with Israel saying it has now taken full control of Beit Hanoun in the north, and made key advances in Shajaiya.
  • In Beit Hanoun, “many terrorists” were eliminated, and weapons depots, rocket launchers, underground command centres, and “significant” tunnels destroyed.
  • The IDF also discovered the Beit Hanoun battalion’s main tunnel, which it says was sited deep within civilian infrastructure, including the city hall, a mosque, a football court, and a daycare centre.
  • The opening of the Kerem Shalom crossing to aid has already resulted in a significant increase in total aid arriving into the Strip. 200 trucks arrived on Sunday, the first time that total has been reached since the start of the war.

The north: Hezbollah continues its attacks across the northern border. On Monday a rocket landed in an open area inside the town of Kiryat Shmona. Israel has continued the retaliation.

  • Three rockets fired towards Israel from fell in open areas in the Golan Heights. Israel fired on the source in response, as well as at a Syrian military position.

Context: The visit of US Secretary of Defence and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff further underscores the close coordination between Israel and the US.

  • Austin also noted his visit included the opportunity for the head of the US army General Brown and the head of the Israeli army General Halevi to discuss, “the most sensitive issues on the agenda, in full transparency and trust.”
  • All the shared threats are orchestrated by Iran. The US and Israel remain highly concerned over Iran’s continued uranium enrichment. The prospect of Iran reaching the nuclear threshold would have a profound influence over Israel’s military decision making.
  • Whilst Hezbollah continues its attacks in the north, Israel is hoping that US diplomatic efforts bear fruit in negotiations with the Lebanese to remove Hezbollah forces from the border area. Gallant told Austin, “if such a process will not be implemented diplomatically, we will not hesitate to act.”
  • According to Channel 12 News, a small Foreign Ministry team has, at the request of Foreign Minister Cohen, drafted a secret policy document for the National Security Council that will be presented to the security cabinet in the future. The document deals with both security and civilian recommendations for Gaza. On security:
    • The IDF will retain full freedom of action.
    • The Gaza Strip will be fully demilitarised and action will be taken to prevent any military build-up.
    • A buffer zone will be established.
    • A mechanism will be created to prevent smuggling along the Egyptian border (Philadelphia corridor) and to allow oversight of the Rafah crossing into Egypt.
    • Israel will maintain the maritime security zone.
  • On the civilian front:
    • An international mechanism will be formed to provide .
    • Managing everyday life will be an integrated combination including:
      • Key international partners.
      • International organisations that already operate in Gaza.
      • Local elements not identified with Hamas.
  • Whilst this plan does not specifically mention the Palestinian Authority (PA), the final point could include them. This would appeal to the US and the international community who have explicitly called for the PA to be engaged, along with Saudi Arabia (considered the other key international partner cited above).
  • However, Netanyahu has repeatedly ruled out a role for the PA.

Looking ahead: There is hope that with head of the CIA Burns invested in the hostage negotiations, he is best placed to put pressure on Qatar that can in turn influence Hamas.

  • When asked about timeline at the press conference Austin said, I’m not here to dictate timelines or terms,” nevertheless the speculation in Israel suggests the US expects Israel to wrap up the ground offensive by the end of January.

December 18, 2023

IDF Chief of Staff reiterates rules of engagement  

Three hostages killed: IDF Chief of Staff Halevi visited troops inside Gaza and reflected on Friday’s incident where troops shot and killed three Israel hostages who managed to escape their captives.

  • The three hostages had stripped to their waist to prove they did not have an explosive belt and carried an improvised white flag (a white cloth on a poll). They came out speaking Hebrew and asking for help.
  • Two were shot by an IDF sniper, while the third was killed after he ran back inside a building.
  • Since the incident, it also became apparent they had made a banner and written, “three hostages, help” in Hebrew as well as other signs.
  • Halevi told the troops, “you see two people, they are with hands up and without shirts, take two seconds, and I want to tell you something just as important, and if it’s two Gazans with a white flag coming out to surrender why would we shoot at them? Absolutely not. Absolutely not. That’s not the IDF.”
  • “I’m telling you whoever got confused here, even those who fought and now lay down their arms and raise their hands, we arrest them, we don’t shoot them. We get a lot of intelligence from the captives we have, we already have over a thousand. We don’t shoot them because the IDF doesn’t shoot a person who raises their hands. That’s strength, not weakness.”

Largest tunnel exposed: The IDF exposed a Hamas tunnel system with its exit point in close vicinity (400 metres) of the Erez crossing, at the northern tip of the Strip.

  • According to the IDF, “this massive tunnel system, splits into branches of tunnels, spans well over four kilometres,” and reached 50 metres underground.
  • The IDF described this tunnel as a “strategic attack tunnel network,” noting it was “large enough to drive vehicles through, was spearheaded by Muhammad Sinwar (the brother of Hamas leader) and intentionally dug near a crossing dedicated to the movement of Gazans into Israel for work and medical care.”
  • Overall, the IDF has already exposed hundreds of tunnel shafts, but this one was significantly wider and more sophisticated than most. As with other tunnels, the IDF noted it was, “equipped with electricity, ventilation, sewage, communication networks and rails.”
  • Many of the tunnels were deliberately built under hospitals, mosques, schools, and kindergartens. This largely explains the significant damage caused during Israel’s operations, particularly in northern Gaza, due to the need to destroy this underground network.
  • It also speaks to the enormous investment, both financial and resources, that Hamas placed on this project though many years, with the sole objective of attacking Israel.
  • Prior to the war, the Erez Crossing was the main crossing for Gazan civilians to enter Israel for work and to receive treatment in Israeli hospitals. According to the IDF, “in 2022, over 800,000 Gazans crossed via Erez Crossing; in the first half of 2023, 550,000.”

Fighting continues: The IDF continues its campaign fighting in both northern and southern Gaza.

  • Over the weekend, troops continued to target Hamas fighters, including the latest example of Hamas combatants hiding in schools and hospitals.
  • For example, in the Kamal Adwan hospital in Jabalya, around 80 fighters were arrested, some of whom terrorists who took part in the October 7th massacre. In addition, according to the IDF, “troops destroyed terror infrastructure in the area and located numerous weapons including AK-47s, RPGs, explosive devices, Nukhba military equipment, technological equipment, and Hamas intelligence documents.”
  • They also questioned the hospital workers. “The workers confessed that weapons were hidden in incubators in the NICU, incubators that were supposed to be used to treat premature babies. Following the questioning, IDF troops located weapons, classified documents, and tactical communications equipment.”
  • In the south, IDF forces in Khan Yunis “eliminated numerous terrorists, located approximately 30 tunnel shafts, and destroyed numerous anti-tank and lookout posts in the area. They also confiscated grenades and RPGs, and found intelligence materials including phones, computers and Hamas guidebooks.”
  • Overall, the cost in terms of soldiers’ lives continues to rise, with three more soldiers’ deaths announced this morning, taking those killed since the ground incursion to 126.

Hostages: Despite numerous examples of tactical successes, the overall objectives of destroying Hamas and returning the remaining 129 hostages appear far from completion.

  • On Friday, the head of the Mossad met with the Qatari prime minister to revisit the possibility of another hostage deal.
  • At present, Israel is insisting that the first component includes the female captives that were supposed to be released as part of the first agreement.
  • After that, Israel is keen to see the release of wounded and elderly men, and there is speculation that Israel would be willing to be “more generous” when it come to releasing Palestinian security prisoners.
  • The head of Mossad is expected to travel to Europe later this week and again meet with Qatari prime minister to explore a new deal with Hamas.

Northern front: Hezbollah has kept up a persistent level of attacks across the length of the Israel-Lebanon border.

  • Alarms were sounded across northern Israel throughout the weekend. This morning six rockets landed in uninhabited areas.
  • Overall, hundreds of rockets and missiles have been fired from Lebanon. However, according to the IDF around 20 per cent of their rockets have landed inside Lebanon.
  • The IDF also claims overall to have struck 120 terrorist cells firing or preparing to launch attacks from southern Lebanon.
  • Syrian sources claimed that overnight Israeli air strikes targeted Hezbollah military sites inside along with Syrian army air defence batteries.

December 15, 2023

UK announces new sanctions on Iran and Palestinian terror groups

Sanctions against Iran: On Thursday, the UK government announced new sanctions on Iran have now come into force.

  • According to the government announcement, the new sanctions gives the UK “extensive new powers to disrupt Iran’s hostile activities in the UK and around the world.”
  • They target “Iran’s decision makers” and “the head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force and individuals linked to Iran’s relationship with Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).”
  • Part of the sanctions also focus specifically on Iran’s drone programme and naval activity.
  • Foreign Secretary David Cameron said, “the behaviour of the Iranian regime poses an unacceptable threat to the UK and our partners. It continues to threaten people on UK soil and uses its influence to destabilise the Middle East through its support to armed groups, including Hamas and PIJ.”
  • The UK also announced that in coordination with the US, “the first set of designations under this new regime, targeting Iran’s support for Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad… includes Esmail Qaani, who heads the IRGC Quds Force… A further seven individuals and one entity, all with links to Hamas and PIJ,” were also designated.
  • Sanctions include a travel ban on those designated, and “an asset freeze preventing any UK citizen, or any business in the UK, from dealing with any funds or economic resources which are owned, held or controlled by the designated person. It is also prevent[ing] funds or economic resources being provided to or for the benefit of the designated person.”

Sanctions against Hamas and PIJ: On Wednesday the UK, (also) in coordination with the US announced new sanctions “to isolate terror group[s]”.

  • The new sanctions aim to freeze assets and impose travel bans. The government explained, “the sanctions target key figures in the network that has financed Hamas, including individuals in Lebanon and Algeria. These stringent measures show that individuals linked to Hamas will not be able to escape accountability, even if they are operating from outside of Gaza.”
  • Foreign Secretary Cameron declared, “Hamas has no future in Gaza.”
  • The UK named seven individuals linked to Hamas to be sanctioned:
    • Mahmoud Zahar: a Gaza-based Hamas leader and co-founder.
    • Ali Baraka: the Lebanon-based Head of External Relations for Hamas.
    • Maher Obeid: a political leader who has held senior positions in Hamas.
    • Akram al-Ajouri: the -based Deputy Secretary General of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and Leader of the Al-Quds Brigades, PIJ’s military wing.
    • Khaled Chouman and Rida Ali Khamis: who have channelled funds to Hamas through their Lebanon-based currency exchanges.
    • Aiman Ahmad Al Duwaik: an Algeria-based financier for Hamas who has helped run the organisation’s overseas investment portfolio.” I think we can lose the quote marks here

 Context: The dual sanctioning of Iran and Palestinian terror groups, is a further indicator of the unity of the US-UK-Israel alliance and the shared threat assessment of Iran.

  • With so much world attention on Gaza, the sanctions against Iran come as a timely reminder that it was Iran that provides Hamas and PIJ with much of their weapons and technological military support.
  • Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen are also both supported by Iran, and Iranian drones are proliferated across the region as well as supplied to the Russian military.
  • The concern remains that with the spotlight away from Iran they could be making critical progress on their nuclear enrichment.
  • In its announcement, the UK government further noted, “the Iranian regime’s activities undermining peace, stability and security in the Middle East and internationally” include “the use and spread of weapons or weapons technologies from Iran.”
  • UK sanctions were developed in the summer, “to respond to unprecedented threats from the Iranian regime, including efforts to undermine peace and security across the Middle East and plots to kill individuals on UK soil.”
  • The government announcement noted, sSince the start of 2022, the UK has responded more than 15 credible threats and plots to kill British or UK-based individuals by the Iranian regime. The regime has publicly called for the killing of these individuals and in some cases detained and harassed the individual’s families in Iran.”
  • The UK proscribed Hamas’s military wing as a terrorist group in March 2001, and extended it to include the whole organisation in November 2021.
  • Although the UK abstained in both recent UN Security Council and General Assembly votes calling for immediate ceasefire, Simon Walters the UK Ambassador in Israel clarified in a recent interview, “we don’t use that term [ceasefire], we say that the sooner the war ends, the better, but we haven’t called for a ceasefire because we know that the task of destroying Hamas is still not over.”
  • The UK further declared that along with the US, they “stand united in their solidarity with Israel and its fight against Hamas, while being clear their actions must be in line with International Humanitarian Law. We continue to support efforts to prevent a regional escalation of the conflict and allow crucial access to Gaza.”
  • When Cameron visited last month, he announced the UK would give a further £30 million in to the UN. In addition the UK has already sent 51 tonnes of aid to the region.
  • This latest announcement builds on last month’s when the UK, “targeted Hamas’ political leader in Gaza, along with other top-ranking officials and financiers. Sanctions form part of a wider tranche of measures aimed at disrupting the group’s acts of terror, including the recently announced international taskforce set up to enable the UK and partners to share financial intelligence.”
  • In an apparent effort for balance, Cameron also announced measures to be taken against violent Jewish settlers in the West Bank. Similar to the US, the UK would also institute a travel ban against “those responsible for settler violence from entering the UK.” He wrote on X that, “extremist settlers, by targeting and killing Palestinian civilians, are undermining security and stability for both Israelis and Palestinians. Israel must take stronger action to stop settler violence and hold the perpetrators accountable.”
  • In parallel, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan was the latest senior US official to visit Israel and conduct close coordination meetings with the Israeli leadership. On Thursday night he met Mossad Director David Barnea, where they focused on the “triple-layered” strategic threat from Iran, nuclear, regional proxies and partners and their support for terrorism.
  • The UK’s Maritime Trade Operation (UKMTO) continues to note attacks by Iranian backed Houthis on cargo ships passing the Yemeni coastline. Israel has called for a combined international solution to the threats against the commercial shipping lanes.

Looking ahead: These new sanctions will give the UK government, “new powers to hold Iran and its decision makers to account.”

  • The government reiterated that, “membership and expressing support for Hamas is an illegal act in the UK, punishable by up to 14 years in prison.”
  • Despite both the UK and US’s desire to see an end of the fighting in Gaza, Defence Minister Gallant cautioned Sullivan that in order to dismantle Hamas, which had been built for years solely for terrorist goals, it would take more than a few months

December 14, 2023

Two people believed taken hostage confirmed killed

  • Joshua Loitu Mollel, a 21-year-old agriculture student from Tanzania who had worked in the cow shed at Nachal Oz and was abducted, is thought to have been killed in captivity, while Tal Haimi, a 41-year-old resident of Kibbutz Nir Yitzhak is thought to have been killed on October 7 and his body taken back to the Gaza Strip.
  • Elsewhere, First Sgt. (res.) Elisha Levinstern, a 38-year-old resident of Harish who served with the Armored Corps, was killed in action yesterday in the southern Gaza Strip. The IDF death toll stands at 116 since the start of the ground operation.
  • Fighting continued yesterday, overnight, and this morning in northern Gaza’s Shejaiya and Jabaliya and in Khan Younis in the south.
  • In the northern Strip, the IDF said it had killed “many terrorists”, including in a raid on a school from which Hamas gunmen had shot at them.
  • Speaking at a situation assessment meeting last night at Shin Bet headquarters, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Israel had no option but to destroy Hamas.
  • Netanyahu said, “I discern the start of Hamas breaking. I see the start, the start of their recognition that we are resolved and will continue to the end and will destroy them. I don’t think that we have any alternative.”
  • White House spokesman John Kirby said that Israel will soon approve the American request to allow to enter the Gaza Strip through the Kerem Shalom border crossing, which has been closed since October 7.
  • Kirby also suggested that some of the steps the Israeli military has taken to prevent civilian casualties in Gaza might go further than what the US would have done if it were in Israel’s place.
  • This appears to be an attempt to soften the critique by President Biden who said Israel was losing global support in the war against Hamas due to “indiscriminate bombing” in the Palestinian enclave.
  • In the West Bank, an IDF aircraft attacked a squad in Jenin that threw explosive devices and endangered the troops in the course of an operation to arrest wanted men. The Palestinian Red Crescent reported that three Palestinians were killed.
  • This was the second air attack in the course of the operation that began on Tuesday in Jenin and its refugee camp. The West Bank Health Ministry said that 11 Palestinians have been killed in the past three days as a result of the army’s operations.
  • Elsewhere, the US Navy destroyer USS Mason shot a drone launched from a Houthi-controlled area while responding to a call from a Marshall Islands-flagged tanker in the southern Red Sea on December 13, US Central Command said on early Thursday.

Context: According to reports, American officials believe that Israel needs to change the pace and intensity of its air campaign in Gaza before Christmas.

  • According to a decision of the Israeli security cabinet, the third stage of the war will entail operations to mop up pockets of resistance by means of raids that are to be conducted by IDF brigades and, if need be, by divisions as well (from the border area where the IDF will deploy).
  • These will be complemented by ongoing efforts to destroy Hamas infrastructure and to reach additional deals to free hostages. According to the security cabinet, in the fourth stage of the war, the IDF is to turn civilian control over Gaza to a third party. If that doesn’t happen, Israel will continue to hold onto the territory.
  • In an interview with Israeli radio, British Ambassador to Israel Simon Walters clarified the current UK position, saying, “we don’t use that term [ceasefire], we say that the sooner the war ends, the better, but we haven’t called for a ceasefire because we know that the task of destroying Hamas is still not over.”
  • Above tactical military decisions, the main disagreement between Israel and the US remains ‘the day after in Gaza’. The Biden administration has said that the Palestinian Authority (PA) should play a major role in the Strip, whereas Netanyahu has ruled that out. Arab allies of the US have said they’ll only get involved in post-war reconstruction if there’s a credible push toward a two-state solution.
  • The Israeli media quotes an unnamed senior US official saying that “if Netanyahu wants the Arabs to rebuild Gaza he is going to have to be flexible and agree to the PA’s entry, even if not in the immediate term, but in the longer term. If Netanyahu wants normalisation with Saudi Arabia he’s got to understand that without the PA in Gaza he won’t get anything.”
  • Reports suggest that Netanyahu is also coming under pressure from within the Israeli cabinet and security establishment to pay far greater attention to ‘the day after’.
  • In parallel, the scale of the PA’s unpopularity in its own West Bank was revealed in fresh polling this week, in which 92 percent called for the resignation of its President Mahmoud Abbas. The poll also showed widespread approval for Hamas’s October 7 attack: 57 percent in Gaza and 82 percent in the West Bank.
  • The Israeli government continues to weigh whether to allow entry to Israel of work permit holders from the West Bank. The security and defence establishments support the move, in a bid to prevent the West Bank spiralling into further violence.

Looking ahead: Several senior American officials are arriving in Israel. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan visited Saudi Arabia on Wednesday to meet with the Crown Prince to discuss the Gaza war and will hold meetings in Israel today and tomorrow.

  • On Friday, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Brown is scheduled to arrive, and Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin is due in Israel on Monday.
  • American officials will reportedly discuss the option of another deal to free hostages in exchange for a pause in fighting that would allow for more to enter Gaza.
  • The senior American officials visiting Israel are also expected to discuss the situation on the northern border. Israel believes there are three options: reaching an agreement that will force Hezbollah to redeploy roughly seven kilometres from the border, which will allow the residents of northern Israel to return to their homes; a war that is proactively launched by Israel; or an escalation in hostilities that devolves into full-scale war.

December 13, 2023

Eight Israeli soldiers killed fighting in Gaza

Gaza Strip: The IDF announced that eight soldiers were killed yesterday as fighting continues in north and south Gaza.

  • The soldiers were named as Lieutenant Colonel Tomer Grinberg, the commander of the Golani Brigade’s 13th Battalion; Major Roei Meldas; Major Moshe Avram Bar On; Major Ben Shelly; Captain Liel Hayo; Staff Sergeant Oriya Yaakov’ Sergeant First Class Rom Hecht; and Sergeant Achia Daskal.
  • Seven of the soldiers fell in battle in the Shajaiya neighbourhood in northern Gaza. Hamas terrorists opened fire at a Golani force that was operating in the area. When the soldiers approached the source of the shooting, an explosive device was detonated which wounded several soldiers. Israeli forces who arrived to rescue the soldiers, assisted by air force and artillery, were hit by another bomb that was detonated. A third force that tried to locate the disconnected soldiers was also injured in the fighting.
  • Prior to the incident in Shajaiya, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant held a situation assessment meeting at the 162nd Division’s forward command post. Gallant said at the meeting: “The operation is very serious, very resolute, and the results speak for themselves. Gaza City is gradually breaking, and we will shortly destroy Hamas’s entire infrastructure in Gaza City.”
  • The Wall Street Journal reported that Israel had recently begun pumping seawater into Hamas’ vast labyrinth of tunnels underneath Gaza, in a process that would likely take weeks.
  • Israel declared 19 of 135 hostages still in captivity in Gaza dead in absentia on Tuesday, after announcing its forces had recovered the bodies of two hostages.
  • The IDF said it has repatriated the bodies of Eden Zacharia, 28, and First Sergeant Ziv Dado, 36. Zacharia was kidnapped from the party near Re’im.
  • Egyptian sources told Sky News Arabia that Israel asked Egypt and Qatar to help mediate another cease-fire agreement with Hamas. There was no confirmation from Israel.

The West Bank: The Palestinian Health Ministry said seven Palestinians were killed in an IDF drone attack in the West Bank targeting members of Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, which is considered a part of the Palestinian Fatah organisation’s military wing.

  • This comes as the Israeli government continues to weigh whether to allow entry to Israel of work permit holders from the West Bank. The security and defence establishments support the move, in a bid to prevent the West Bank spiralling into further violence.
  • A “reformed” Palestinian Authority (PA) – of which Fatah is largest faction – remains the US’s preference for taking control of Gaza after the defeat of Hamas.

Israel-US: President Biden laid out his thoughts on the fighting in Gaza and the future for the Strip at a US fundraiser yesterday.

  • “We continue to provide military assistance to Israel as it goes after Hamas,” he said. “We’ll continue leading the world in delivering humanitarian assistance to the Palestinian civilians as well to emphasise to our friends in Israel the need to protect civilian life. And they understand it, the vast majority of the population.”
  • He later added what the US needs to do: “First and foremost, do everything in our power to hold Hamas accountable — every single thing in our power. They’re animals. They’re animals.”
  • “Secondly, we have to work toward bringing Israel together in a way that provides for the beginning of the option of… a two-state solution.”
  • Speaking of the current Netanyahu government’s position, President Biden said, “You cannot say there’s no Palestinian state at all in the future.” The president also warned that Israel was beginning to lose international support because of “indiscriminate” bombing.
  • US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Tuesday that he would soon be discussing with Israel officials their timetable for the war in Gaza.
  • With military officials estimating that achieving the operation’s goals in Gaza could take months, maintaining US support is crucial to Israel being able to withstand international pressure to cease its operation before then.
  • PM Netanyahu also clarified that Israel and the US “have differences regarding ‘the day after Hamas.'” Following Biden’s comments, Netanyahu posted a video in which he said, “I won’t allow Israel to repeat the mistake of Oslo. I won’t allow, after the immense sacrifice made by our citizens and fighters, for us to put [into power] in Gaza people who teach terrorism, support terrorism, finance terrorism. Gaza won’t be either Hamastan or Fatahstan.”
  • This is Netanyahu’s second reference to the Oslo process in the last few days. He made a similar connection to the US’s proposed steps towards a two state solution after the defeat of Hamas at a meeting of the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee on Monday.
  • Netanyahu has publicly confirmed that his government has no intention to reoccupy the Gaza Strip in the long term, nor to allow Israeli resettlement there. However, the prospect of a post-Hamas interim in which Israel retains a security presence in the Strip is likely to put the US and Israel at loggerheads.
  • Partially responding to Biden’s comments, Daniel Hagari said that the IDF makes every effort to prevent civilian casualties, adding: “Even when things get said, the right thing to do is to show and explain with facts. We know how to explain exactly how we act with precision, based on intelligence, even when we are operating on the ground against Hamas’s centres of gravity in a way to differentiate the civilians, who aren’t involved in terrorism, from the terrorist objectives.”
  • The IDF has opened the Nitzana and Kerem Shalom crossings to enable security screening of aid. This includes trucks containing water, food, medical supplies and shelter equipment that will then be forwarded to the international aid organisations. The goods will continue to enter via the Rafah crossing from Egypt.

The north: Following mortar and antitank fire against Israel, the IDF launched a series of attacks on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon.

  • The IDF also identified three launches from – two of which fell inside Syrian territory and one which landed in an open area in Israel.
  • According to a statement issued early Wednesday, Israeli tanks and attack helicopters targeted Hezbollah missile launching sites and other terrorist infrastructure in Lebanon, as well as military infrastructure and positions belonging to the Syrian army.
  • Israel maintains that the pre-October 7th status quo on the northern border cannot be returned to, and that that Hezbollah, and its elite Radwan force in particular, must be moved north of the Litani river, as called for by UN Resolution 1701.
  • The US and France have made efforts to induce the Lebanese government to act to remove Hezbollah fighters from the border area, but Israel has also affirmed that if diplomatic initiatives fail it will be forced to take military action to secure the north.

The international arena: The United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday demanded an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war. The resolution garnered 153 votes in favour, while 23 countries abstained from the vote. General Assembly resolutions are non-binding. This follows the US vetoing a Security Council vote, which would have been binding, on Friday calling for a ceasefire.

  • Israeli Ambassador to the UN Gilad Erdan said “not only does this resolution fail to condemn Hamas for crimes against humanity, it does not mention Hamas at all. This will only prolong the death and destruction in the region, that is precisely what a ceasefire means,” he said.
  • He added that the only intention of Hamas is to destroy Israel and that the group has declared that it will repeat its atrocities again and again until Israel ceases to exist. Erdan said that a ceasefire means one thing only – “the survival of Hamas.”
  • Both Austria and the US tabled amendments that failed to pass. Austria’s inserted the phrase, “held by Hamas and other groups” in relation to the hostages still being held in Gaza as well as inserting the word “immediate” in reference to ensuring humanitarian access. The US amendment called for wording to be inserted “unequivocally” rejecting and condemning “the heinous terrorist attacks by Hamas that took place in Israel starting October 7th 2023 and the taking of hostages” as the first operative paragraph. The Austrian draft amendment secured 89 for, 61 against and 20 abstentions while the US draft amendment saw 84 in favour, 62 against and 25 abstaining. Both failed under the two-thirds rule.
  • Hamas welcomed the UN vote and urged the international community to pressure Israel to abide by decision.

December 12, 2023

IDF captures over 500 terrorists

  • “Since the end of the operational pause, the IDF and Shin Bet apprehended approximately 140 Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists in the Gaza Strip.”
  • “In the past month, a total of over 350 Hamas terrorist operatives were apprehended by the IDF and Shin Bet. In addition, over 120 Islamic Jihad terrorist operatives were apprehended.”
  • Some of the detainees surrendered, whilst others were captured.
  • In addition to the 500, those that were identified as non-combatants were released to the safe zone in the south.
  • On Monday evening IDF Spokesperson Hagari said the IDF are “intensifying their combat in the main Hamas strongholds in the Gaza Strip.”
  • To emphasise their control on the ground, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi alongside head of the Shin Bet Bar held a situational assessment in the centre of Khan Yunis.
  • Halevi said, ״there is big pressure here. I think that the surrendering, the people coming out and raising their hands, is also a break in their spirit. It accelerates our accomplishments, in the end, we want to progress quickly. We are securing our accomplishments in the northern part of the Gaza Strip, the entrance in the southern part of the Strip, and also deep down into the ground – all of these places, all of these intensifications, are very important for our accomplishments.”
  • Defence Minister Gallant related to the fighting on Monday evening saying, “the Hamas battalions in Jabalia and Shajaiya in the north of the Gaza Strip are on the verge of being disbanded. Hundreds turn themselves in, including terrorists who participated in the massacre in the communities surrounding the Gaza Strip. The terrorists who turn themselves in tell of a lack of weapons and food and of the betrayal of their commanders and senior Hamas officials who took care of themselves and abandoned the military operatives to die in battle. The dismantling of Hamas will also continue in Khan Yunis. Terrorists have two choices: surrender or die.”
  • In northern Gaza, the IDF hit more sites where rockets had been launched. In Jabalya, they exposed a site that had been firing rockets toward Sderot. The IDF announced that following a raid they found, “approximately 250 rockets, shells, and RPGs that were ready for use, as well as other weapons and military equipment. IDF troops also struck a weapon production factory where they located hundreds of grenades, rockets, and M72 LAW rockets.”
  • In the southern Strip, four IDF reservists were killed when an explosive device was detonated during a raid on a “terror infrastructure sites” close to a school.
  • In parallel to the fighting, in an effort to increase into Gaza Strip the IDF opened the Nitzana and Kerem Shalom crossings to enable security screening of the aid. This includes trucks containing water, food, medical supplies and shelter equipment that will then be forwarded to the international aid organisations. The good will continue to enter via the Rafah crossing from Egypt.

Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee: Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke yesterday at a meeting of the Knesset committee, where he pushed back against demands from his left to pursue a two state solution, and from his right to reoccupy and resettle the Gaza Strip once Hamas has been defeated.

  • Labour leader Merav Michaeli asked Netanyahu about post-war planning and the need for a two-state vision, to which he replied, “Oslo was the original sin. After Oslo there was an identical number of people killed. The problem isn’t in the agreement but rather brought the most anti-Zionist and anti-Jewish element to the heart of the country.”
  • Far-right MK Limor Sonn Har Melech’s (Jewish Power) demanded that Israel reoccupy Gaza, to which Netanyahu said “we can occupy, we can annex—but at what cost? So we will have settled, let’s say. You’ve got to think of the cost.”
  • Netanyahu stated that his goal was for the military operation to defeat Hamas and disarm the Strip, and for the Arab world and Gulf states to take charge of Gazan rehabilitation. “I believe that the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia will support the rehabilitation of the Strip,” he said, despite neither state having given any public indication it will.
  • The humanitarian situation in the Strip was discussed, with MKs from the right taking a hard line. Tally Gotliv (Likud) criticised the Israeli acceptance of American demands. “Why isn’t there a siege on Gaza,” she asked. “Why are we such defeatists? Why do we take the United States into account?”
  • Likud MK Danny Danon once more raised the prospect of the international community re-homing Gazans who chose to leave.
  • The US has made repeatedly clear its insistence that a Palestinian entity assume control in Gaza after Hamas (its preference is for a “reformed” Palestinian Authority) and that reoccupation is unthinkable. There is international consensus that forcing or encouraging Gazans to leave the Strip is also unthinkable, and no Israeli moves have been made in this direction.

Lebanon border: There were further exchanges of fire in the north.

  • Shooting was reported towards the town of Ma’a lot, Metula and Shtula. The IDF responded with targeted fire to the source as well as striking Hezbollah infrastructure posts.
  • On Monday night Hagari warned, “terrorist organisations will pay a very heavy price in Lebanon for any attack on civilian communities. We will strike with force and determination and will not allow this firing to continue towards civilians. This is how we will continue to operate in the north and will exact a price from terrorist organizations, especially the Hezbollah terrorist organization, which bears responsibility for this.”
  • More than 100,000 Israelis have been forced to leave their homes in the north. Defence Minister Gallant recently made clear Israel’s refusal to return to the status quo, and that Hezbollah, and its elite Radwan force in particular, must be returned beyond the Litani river, as called for by UN Resolution 1701.
  • The US and France have made efforts to induce the Lebanese government to act to remove Hezbollah fighters from the border area, but Israel has also affirmed that if diplomatic initiatives fail it will be forced to take military action to secure the north.
  • Hezbollah is equipped with a rocket and missile arsenal of around 150,000, some ten times Hamas’s stockpile.

Israel-US: US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and War Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz spoke by phone yesterday, Gantz telling Blinken that “the international community must act against the state of Lebanon to stop the aggression in the border area.”

  • Gantz also conveyed to Blinken his “profound appreciation” over the US using its UN Security Council veto last week to defeat a resolution calling for a ceasefire.
  • According to the State Department, the two also discussed “ongoing efforts to facilitate the safe return of all remaining hostages, further increase levels of humanitarian assistance and prevent the conflict from expanding.”
  • Blinken also stressed “the urgent need for affirmative steps to de-escalate tensions in the West Bank and reiterated that Israel must take all possible measures to avoid civilian harm” and “emphasised that the United States remains committed to advancing tangible steps towards the realisation of a Palestinian state.”
  • It is the latest example of Blinken sidestepping his opposite number, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen, by choosing to deal with other senior government figures instead.
  • US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is expected to be the next senior US official to visit Israel.

December 11, 2023

IDF continues its ground offensive

Gaza Strip: Over the weekend, the fighting continued to focus on Shajaiya and Jabalya in the north as well as Khan Yunis in the south.

  • According to the IDF, they are conducting raids on “terrorist strongholds, eliminating terrorists, and locating and destroying terrorist infrastructure. In addition, IDF naval troops are operating off the coast of the Gaza Strip, supporting IDF ground troops and striking terror targets from the sea.”
  • The IDF announced last night that the new commander of the Shajaiya battalion was killed in an air strike, a few days after his predecessor was killed.
  • On Sunday night, IDF Spokesperson Hagari declared that the IDF had completed its takeover of Palestine Square in the heart of Gaza City. He said: “Palestine Square is where Yahya Sinwar’s office is located, it is where government offices are located, it is where senior Hamas leaders’ assets are located and that’s where a terrorist network of tunnels is located. These are strategic tunnels in the sense that they run from northern Gaza City to Shifa Hospital.”
  • Since the end of the operational pause, the Israeli Air Force has struck over 3,500 targets in the Gaza Strip and overall over 22,000 Hamas targets.
  • Despite IDF advances, Hamas are still firing rockets into southern Israel.

Lebanon border: Over the weekend, fighting has continued in a similar pattern, with Hezbollah firing rockets, anti-tank missiles and launching UAVs into northern Israel.

  • Yesterday IDF Chief of Staff visited the northern border and told troops, “for the return to all the communities, both in the south and in the north – first, we need to return to a different situation, and return to both safety and a sense of security. There is a military way to do this, the beginning of which is also what you are doing here, to damage, to deter, to kill Hezbollah operatives, to demonstrate our superiority.”
  • On Sunday night, Hezbollah launched several rockets. According to the IDF, “one of the rockets was launched from 20 metres away from a United Nations compound.”
  • “In doing so, the terrorist organisation endangers the lives of UNIFIL soldiers and continues to systematically violate UNSC Resolution 1701. The UNIFIL Head of Mission and Force Commander was notified of the incident.”
  • This morning eight rockets were launched into northern Israel, six were intercepted, two landed in open areas
  • The IDF continues to return fire to the source, and also target Hezbollah compounds from where their fighters emerge.
  • Hezbollah has publicly confirmed 100 of its fighters killed since October 7th, though the IDF believes the number could be higher.
  • Overall, six IDF soldiers and four Israeli civilians have been killed in the north.

Context: In Gaza, the IDF is making significant progress in its ground offensive but appears still far from achieving its two main objectives of removing Hamas from power and returning the remaining 137 hostages.

  • The latest estimate is that 7,000 Hamas fighters have been killed, including half of Hamas’s battalion and company commanders.
  • As a result of the intense fighting, the IDF announced the deaths of another four soldiers this morning, taking the total since the beginning of the land incursion to 101.
  • On Friday, the debate at the UN Security Council underlined once more how reliant Israel is on the US when they vetoed a motion demanding a ceasefire. The UK abstained, whilst all 13 other counties supported the motion.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu called on other countries to recognise that it is a contradiction in terms to support the destruction of Hamas while also calling for a ceasefire. He said Israel would continue its just war to eliminate Hamas and to achieve all the other war objectives.
  • Placing Israeli flags and other symbols inside Gaza serves a short term purpose for confirming the IDF are in control and is part of their psychological warfare against Hamas, but should not be construed as an Israeli statement to remain there in the long term.
  • There is also significant debate in Israel over the wisdom of releasing the images of Palestinian prisoners in their underwear.
  • Security officials have explained the operational necessity for them to remove their clothes to ensure none of them are wearing an explosive suicide vest, but that does not mean they need to be photographed at that moment, or that once checked they cannot put their clothes back on.
  • The arrested men were captured in northern Gaza, and once arrested they were questioned. So far around 40 per cent were found to be terrorists or members of Hamas. The remaining 60 per cent were released into the safe zones in southern Gaza.
  • Some of the arrested Hamas men are thought to hold valuable information.
  • The fighters who have surrendered attests to the erosion of Hamas’s fighting capabilities, however, there is still thought to be a vast network of fighters underground.
  • Another significant issue on the political agenda is whether to allow Palestinians from the West Bank with work permits to re-enter into Israel. It is understood that the prime minister and the security establishment support a limited return, primarily over concerns that exacerbating economic hardship that could lead to increased violence. However, there was almost no support for this in the socio-economic cabinet.
  • The issue will soon be discussed in the security cabinet.

Looking ahead: The IDF could complete the takeover of the Shajaiya and Jabalya strongholds in the next few days, but the operation in Khan Yunis could still last several weeks.

  • The timing will be determined both by operational considerations and the extent of the US providing diplomatic support.
  • Even if the operation in Khan Yunis is completed, it is currently unclear if the IDF will be able to extend the ground operation to other areas in central Gaza or Rafah in the south.
  • IDF Spokesperson Hagari maintains that the IDF will target all members of Hamas’s leadership. On Sunday night he said, “Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, Marwan Issa—that trio—we’ve got to reach them. That’s our job. And we intend to reach them. However long it takes, we will reach them. Them, and the other Hamas leaders.

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