What happened: At 0400 this morning, 27th November, the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon came into effect.

• Last night Israel’s security cabinet voted in favour of the ceasefire agreement, 10 – 1. Only National Security Minister Ben Gvir voted against.
• During the meeting, the Prime Minister’s Office released a pre-recorded speech by the prime minister highlighting the benefits of the agreement saying, “With a full understanding with the United States, we retain full military freedom of action. If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to rearm, we will attack. If it tries to renew its terrorist infrastructure near the border, we will attack. If it fires a rocket, if it digs a tunnel, if it brings in trucks with missiles, we will attack.”
• In his speech Netanyahu highlighted three reasons for the ceasefire now:
  • “To focus on the Iranian threat.”
  • “To give our forces a breather and replenish stocks. And I say it openly, it is no secret that there have been big delays in weapons and munitions deliveries. These delays will be resolved soon. We will receive supplies of advanced weaponry that will keep our soldiers safe and give us more strike force to complete our mission.”
  • “And the third reason for having a ceasefire is to separate the fronts and isolate Hamas. From day two of the war, Hamas was counting on Hezbollah to fight by its side. With Hezbollah out of the picture, Hamas is left on its own. We will increase our pressure on Hamas and that will help us in our sacred mission of releasing our hostages.”
• Later in the evening, Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke to US President Biden and thanked him for the US involvement in achieving the ceasefire and for the understanding that Israel maintains freedom of action in enforcing it.
• In the lead up to the agreement, both sides continued to attack each other yesterday. Sirens were heard all over central and northern Israel.
• The last air raid siren warning about incoming rocket fire sounded at 10:30 last night when a number of rockets landed in Kiryat Shmona.
• The IDF also continued its offensive strikes on Hezbollah targets throughout Lebanon including 20 sites in Beirut. 13 were in the Hezbollah dominated Dahiya neighbourhood. According to the IDF, “Among the targets struck were a Hezbollah aerial defence unit centre, an intelligence centre, command centres, weapons storage facilities, an operations room, an artillery storage facility, and terrorist infrastructure sites.”
• “Seven other targets struck were components of Hezbollah’s financial system, including headquarters, storage facilities, and branches of the Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association, which are used by Hezbollah to collect and store its terrorist funds.”
• According to Lebanese media the Israeli Air Force also targeted the border crossings with Syria. According to one report, all of the border crossings were knocked out of commission by those attacks.
• In the first test of the ceasefire, a convoy of eight cars and a motorcycle thought to include around 12 Hezbollah fighters approached IDF troops in a Lebanese village close to the Israeli border. The IDF troops fired warning shots.

For further details of  the agreement – read our briefing from Tuesday.

Context: The agreement ends 14 months of attacks that began when Hezbollah started launching rockets, missiles and drones into northern Israel on October 8^th, the day after Hamas’s attack out of Gaza.

• Since then, Hezbollah has launched over 14,000 attacks against Israel. Israel’s anti-missile defence systems are thought to have achieved a success rate of interceptions of around 90 per cent.
• However on the Israeli side 42 civilians and 67 soldiers were killed. Whilst in Lebanon over 3,500 Lebanese were killed, the vast majority were affiliated to Hezbollah.
• Netanyahu also took the opportunity to highlight achievements across other fronts in the war:
  • On Iran, “We destroyed major parts of Iran’s air defence system and missile-manufacturing capabilities, and we demolished a significant component of their nuclear programme.”
  • “In Gaza, we dismantled the Hamas battalions and killed close to 20,000 terrorists. We killed Sinwar, we killed Deif, we killed senior Hamas officials and we brought 154 hostages back.”
  • Relating to the West Bank, “we are taking out terrorists, we are destroying terrorist infrastructure and we are operating in all of the terror strongholds. There is no place out of our reach.”
  • “In Yemen, we attacked the Houthis’ port of Hodeida forcibly, which the international coalition had not done.”
  • “In Iraq, we successfully thwarted, and are still thwarting, many drone attacks, and we have many challenges ahead.”
  • In Syria, we are systematically blocking attempts by Iran, Hezbollah and the Syrian army to transfer weapons to Lebanon. Assad must understand that he is playing with fire.”
• The agreement between Israel and Lebanon will be accompanied by a US letter of guarantee. The US assurances include:
  • Sharing sensitive intelligence regarding violations, including any infiltration by Hezbollah into the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF).
  • A US commitment to cooperate with Israel to deter Iran’s destabilising activities in Lebanon, including preventing the transfer of weapons.
  • The US recognises Israel’s right to respond to threats emanating from Lebanese territory in accordance with international law.
  • This right expands beyond southern Lebanon. Israel reserves the right to act against the development of threats directed against it, if Lebanon is unable or unwilling to thwart such threats: including the illegal entry of weapons into Lebanon through borders and crossings.
• Leader of the Opposition Lapid responding to Netanyahu’s statement, saying, “The biggest disaster in our history occurred on Netanyahu’s watch. No agreement with Hezbollah will erase the irresponsibility; no statement to the media will change history. In the meantime, the communities in the north have been devastated, the lives of the residents have been destroyed, the military has been worn down, while they are advancing draft-dodging legislation.”
• There is also considerable anger from the leaders of northern Israeli communities. The Mayor of Metulla David Azulai told Army Radio this morning, “The agreement that our country reached is a disgraceful agreement. They want to annihilate us and that is precisely what is going to happen if they find the right time for them, and what happened in the south on October 7 will happen here in the north on a far more powerful scale.”

Looking ahead: The initial stage of the ceasefire is due to last for the next 60 days. In this period, the IDF will gradually redeploy to the internationally recognised border as UNIFIL and LAF will enter the areas vacated.

• Netanyahu has cautioned the leaders of local communities from northern Israel that no one would be returning to their home yet. Israel will wait to see whether the other side will honour the agreement.
• With this deal completed the focus will return to Gaza, and efforts to secure the release of the 101 hostages, now held for 418 days.

What’s happening: The prospects for a possible ceasefire in Lebanon are gaining momentum.

• A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon is expected to be formally declared today, with PM Netanyahu due to convene the security cabinet this afternoon to discuss and vote on the agreement.
• The New York Times reports that Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, has said that the Islamic Republic approves the proposal.
• The agreement is broadly based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which brought to an end the Second Lebanon War in 2006 and will reportedly include two main components:
  • The gradual withdrawal of IDF forces and the deployment of the Lebanese Armed Forces with an international supervisory mechanism – headed by an American general from CENTCOM – to deal with future issues that may arise.
  • A side letter from American which guarantees that Israel will retain freedom of action to respond if and when Hezbollah breaches the agreement.
• Israeli officials said that no Hezbollah prisoners would be released as part of the deal and that no Israeli assurances would be given to stop assassinations of senior Hezbollah officials in the event the agreement is violated.
• Israeli security cabinet ministers have expressed support for ending the war. They believe there is a need to separate between the front in Gaza and that in Lebanon, which they hope will increase international pressure on Hamas that will enable progress towards a deal in the south.
• There is concern that the United Nations Security Council could pass an anti-Israel resolution before Trump takes office and Israeli political officials hope that a ceasefire in the north would reduce international pressure on Israel.
• Residents and local leaders of Northern Israel are concerned that the emerging arrangement would leave northern Israel communities vulnerable to future attacks. The mayor of Hatzor Haglilit, Michael Kabesa, called the emerging deal a ‘surrender agreement’ adding that it was “a disgrace on an historic scale. This isn’t victory; this forsakes the residents of the Galilee. This is a failure to seize an historic opportunity to change reality for decades into the future. Instead of capitalising on success, as usual, they are braking in the middle. The bill is going to be paid by our children and grandchildren.”
• Ben Caspit in Ma’ariv described the deal as the ‘least bad option’ that Israel has to choose from. Caspit argus that strategically the agreement is vital, adding that Israel’s achievements in the war are significant and without an agreement the situation could deteriorate. He also argues that Israel should prioritise focusing on the Iranian threat and the need to return the hostages, rather than continue fighting in Lebanon.
• Opposition within the government has been raised by National Security Minister, Ben-Gvir who argues that a cease fire in Lebanon would be a missed opportunity to destroy Hezbollah completely at a time when the organisation is weak.
• National Unity party leader Gantz also criticised the proposal and Hezbollah as being “half the job. The idea that we will report to the committee and only then take action is fundamentally flawed, as Hezbollah can burn our intelligence sources and move the means of warfare”
• Yesterday, around 40 rockets were launched from Lebanon at Israel. Some were intercepted, while others fell in the Western Galilee. Last night Hezbollah fired around 20 rockets toward Nahariya which left two wounded, including one woman in her 70’s who was seriously injured by shrapnel.
• An IDF soldier was seriously wounded in a Hezbollah drone attack on the Mount Hermon area this morning. The IDF also intercepted a drone in the Golan Heights, which was launched toward Israel from Iraq.
• Yesterday, the IDF attacked around 25 command centres in Lebanon that are associated with Hezbollah’s Executive Council, the organisation’s highest governing body. The IDF also targeted 20 Hezbollah military headquarters in three waves of focused strikes in the Dahiyeh neighbourhood of Beirut and targeted the capabilities of Hezbollah’s Unit 4400, which is responsible for smuggling weapons to the organisation.

Context: The deal appears leaves Israel with several advantages.

• These are as follows:
  • It will mark the end of the fighting that has seen Hezbollah’s senior military leadership decimated. In additions, over 3,000 Hezbollah fighters were killed, including dozens of commanders and more were injured.
  • The IDF has destroyed the enormous military infrastructure that was built directly across from the border.  This also includes Hezbollah’s tunnels network that housed sophisticated weapons and was in place for an invasion of northern Israel.
  • Similarly, Israel has dealt with the direct threat of anti- tank guided missiles that were aimed directly at Israeli civilian homes and vehicles.
  • The IDF believes it has severely downgraded Hezbollah’s stock of missiles, rockets, drones and their launch capacity.      
  • The deal will allow the IDF to redeploy and rest some forces, allow reservists to return home.
  • It will also allow the military to save munitions and focus on the Iranian threat and Gaza.      
  • The new deal removes the UN from their oversight role and instead places a US military commander at the head of the monitoring committee.    
• There are ongoing signs of concern too:
  •  The agreement leaves Hezbollah with at least some of its capacity in place, including the ability to launch missiles, rockets and drones.
  • It provides Hezbollah with an opportunity to rebuild and re-arm.     
  •  Violations, even if the IDF does act, could still lead to the renewal of rocket attacks etc.
•  Some on the Israeli side had hoped for a buffer zone (similar to the arrangement with Syria after the 1973 Yom Kippur War). That would prevent Lebanese civilians (and presumably Hezbollah) from returning directly to the border and once again look into the northern communities.         
• To counter the latter point the IDF are expected to redeploy significantly along the border to ensure Israeli civilians have security and the perception of security to allow them to return to their homes.    
• Israel has reiterated that the deal must guarantee future freedom of action in the case in which weapons are delivered to Hezbollah from Syria; preparations are made to launch a terror attack or fire rockets; and Hezbollah operatives move back to southern Lebanon under the cover of being civilians.
• As part of Israel’s coordination with allies, IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi visited the UK on Monday and met with his counterparts from the UK and NATO partners. They discussed strengthening the coalition against Iran and the developments in Gaza and Lebanon. 

Looking ahead: If the security cabinet approves the agreement, it is expected that Biden and Macron will declare a 60-day ceasefire today, at which point the full details of the agreement will be published.

• There is hope that the ceasefire will act as a catalyst to change internal Lebanese politics, including reducing the power of Hezbollah and limiting Iranian influence in the country.
• Similarly, it is hoped the deal will renew efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and see the release of hostages.