Hezbollah and Lebanon

Updated November 6, 2024

Seven killed in northern Israel

What’s happened: On Thursday, seven people were killed by Hezbollah rockets in two separate incidents.

Five agricultural workers were killed in an apple orchard close to Metula. Omer Weinstein, a 46 year old farmer, along with four Thai nationals, were killed when their tractor took a direct hit.
Shortly after the attack in Metula, Hezbollah fired missiles on Haifa bay area. A 60 year old woman, Mina Shafik Hason, and her 21 year old son, Karmi Raja Hason, from Shfar’am were killed whilst picking olives.
Overall, around 100 rockets were fired from Lebanon toward Israel on Thursday.
This morning, rockets attack continued, as around 20 rockets were fired at northern Israel.
In parallel, the IDF continues operations inside southern Lebanon, attacking dozens of Hezbollah targets.
Early this morning, the Israeli Air Force attacked Hezbollah targets in the Dahiya neighborhood in south Beirut for the first time in six days. Prior to the attacks, the IDF warned residents to leave the areas located close to the sites.
There were also reported strikes on weapons storage facilities and command centres used by Hezbollah’s Radwan Forces and its munitions unit in the area of Al-Qusayr, in Syria.
Meanwhile there are continued diplomatic efforts to reach a ceasefire. US special envoys Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk met PM Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Thursday. Netanyahu emphasised the importance of thwarting the Hezbollah threat to allow the return of citizens from northern Israel to their homes.

Context: One month since the ground incursion began, Israel is close to reaching its two main goals.

First – remove the threat posed by anti-tank missiles that directly threated Israeli communities within the line of sight (fire).
Second – removing Hezbollah’s huge military infrastructure embedded in close vicinity that could have served launch sites for attacks into Israel.
The ground campaign inside Lebanon has come at a cost. 33 soldiers have been killed inside Lebanon in the last month.
Overall, October was the most costly month so far, with 88 Israelis killed in the north and the south.
The civilian deaths yesterday proved Hezbollah maintains the ability to launch rockets and drones from further north. This is why, along with the ground offensive, Israel is keeping up its airstrikes against Hezbollah north of the Litani River, including in Beirut.
With the IDF’s success in the first line of contact, forces are moving further north amid efforts to reach a diplomatic solution.
From Israel’s perspective, the most important diplomatic achievement will be formal US approval to maintain freedom of action to target any Hezbollah violations after a ceasefire is agreed. To that end, Israel is seeking written confirmation from President Biden.
For the last month the Metula area has been a closed military zone. Last week, farmers were allowed to return in coordination with the army, after the direct threat (from anti-tank missiles) was perceived to have been removed.
Whilst Israel’s anti-missile defence has a success rate of over 90 per cent, it does not make interceptions when the rocket trajectory means it will land in open spaces (non-residential areas). This appears to be the case in both fatal incidents yesterday.

Iranian threat: The New York Times reported on Thursday that Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei has given the order to prepare another strike against Israel.

Speaking yesterday, PM Netanyahu related to Iran saying, “we struck its soft underbelly. The haughty words of the Iranian regime’s leaders cannot cover up the fact in Iran today, Israel has greater freedom of action than ever before. We can go anywhere that we need to in Iran.”
He added, “The supreme objective that I have set for the IDF and the security services is to prevent Iran from attaining nuclear weapons. Halting the nuclear program has been – and remains – our chief concern.”
Despite the rhetoric from Iran, they face a serious dilemma. Iran now knows the extent of the damage inflicted by Israel in the attack last week so feels compelled to respond. However, it also understands it is now exposed, and with Israel having established aerial domination, an Israeli counter-strike could do even more damage next time.

Looking ahead: Israel remains on high alert across multiple fronts.

Israeli defence officials assess that Iran could decide to attack via their proxies in Iraq with a combination of drones and ballistic missiles.
Any Israeli response will require close coordination with the US due to the presence of their personnel on the ground. However, regardless of from where it is launched from, Israel may also choose to respond to Iran directly.

November 1, 2024

IDF: Over 1,500 Hezbollah terrorists eliminated

The IDF today announced the following statistics, marking the one month recap of ground operations inside southern Lebanon:

Over 1,500 Hezbollah terrorists have been eliminated
3000+ explosive devices have been uncovered
4,400+ projectiles have been fired by Hezbollah towards Israel
2,500 anti-tank missiles, RPGs, launchers and kornet missiles have been found and dismantled

October 21, 2024

Israel targets Hezbollah financial infrastructure

Recent IDF airstrikes on Hezbollah targeted sites linked to the group’s financing in Beirut and south Lebanon.

The Al-Qard al-Hassan Association, directly funds Hezbollah’s terror activities, including the purchase weapons and payments to operatives in Hezbollah’s military wing.
These strikes follow an IDF warning on Sunday evening that “anyone located near sites used to fund Hezbollah’s terror activities must move away from these locations immediately.”
IDF spokesman, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, also said that “in the coming days, we will reveal how Iran funds Hezbollah’s terror activities by using civilian institutions, associations, and NGOs that act as fronts for terrorism”.
On Saturday, Hezbollah attempted to assassinate Prime Minister Netanyahu with a drone strike on his Caesarea.
While empty at the time, the residence only suffered “superficial” damage without causing any injuries, it is the first semi-successful targeting of the prime minister and his family since the outbreak of war last October.
Speaking after the strike, the prime minister said that “the agents of Iran who tried to assassinate me and my wife today made a bitter mistake” with Defence Minister Gallant adding that the attack was essentially on “the State of Israel and its government symbols.”
Iran has distanced itself from this attack, seeking to attribute responsibility to Hezbollah with Tehran’s permanent mission to the UN saying “the action in question has been carried out by Hezbollah in Lebanon.”
The attack received widespread condemnation with the Prime Minister Starmer, calling Prime Minister Netanyahu the same day to express his alarm about the attack. A readout of the call also says they discussed the death of Yahya Sinwar and the opportunity it presented to achieve a ceasefire and hostage release deal, the importance of getting more aid into Gaza, and reaching a political solution in Lebanon.
Fighting continues in Lebanon with the IDF’s Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi, telling troops that the IDF had killed an estimated 1500 Hezbollah operators and “taken out their entire command layer.”
Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s rocket and missile fire on Israel continues without abatement, with over 170 projectiles being fired yesterday.
In Gaza, the commander of the Israel’s 401^stArmoured Corps brigade, Colonel Ehsan Daqsa, has been killed in fighting in Jabaliya in the northern Gaza Strip. Daqsa, 41 and from the Druze town of Daliyat al-Karmel is one of six full colonels to fall during the war, four of whom were killed on 7^thOctober.
Colonel Daqsa’s death comes as the IDF intensifies its latest offensive on Jabaliya, saying that Hamas was attempting to re-establish itself there.

Whilst Israel remains in a multi front war, the security cabinet convened on Sunday night to review a variety of issues.

It is understood that preparations have been completed for an attack on Iran, however it remains unclear when and what the targets will be.
In anticipation of another Iranian counterstrike, the US have now deployed a THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defence) battery to help defend Israel. With Israel also requesting a second battery.
The second item at the security cabinet was the ongoing war in Lebanon. After the drone attack at prime minister’s house, Israel is expected to be preparing a tough response.
Israel’s latest targeting of Hezbollah’s financial institution is aimed in part to continue targeting their terror infrastructure. Secondly, it will limit their ability to pay their troops, further decreasing their motivation to fight.
Hezbollah terrorists captured in recent days as part of the IDF ground operation in southern Lebanon told interrogators that Hezbollah had paid money to UNIFIL personnel for use of their positions in southern Lebanon.
As a result of UNIFIL intransience to move north away from the fighting, it has been suggested that Israel will base any future arrangement on commitments made by the Lebanese Armed Forces and less on UNIFIL, as it turns out that the international force has been compromised.
Iranian made drones continue to pose a significant threat to Israel’s home front. Of over 10,000 projectiles launched by Hezbollah in the last year around 1,500 have been drones. Of these around 170 have evaded interception.
The most recently drone attacks struck an old age home in Herzliya on Yom Kippur, an army base near Binyamina last week (that killed four soldiers in the dining room) and now the strike in Caesarea.
The drones are small and hard for radars to detect, plus they are capable of frequently changing altitude. Their slow flight speed also makes them challenging for Israeli fighter jets to intercept. The effectiveness of the drones is increasing due to the fact that they are fired in salvos, together with rockets, attempting to overwhelm Israel’s defence system.
A third issue being explored is a plan to distribute Humanitarian Aid in the northern Gaza Strip by a private US initiative.
In the meantime, according to COGAT, 114 Humanitarian Aid trucks entered Gaza yesterday via the Kerem Shalom and Erez crossings.
As part of Israel’s preparations for the winter months and the efforts to find solutions in the field of sanitation, 3,000 tons of hygiene products, 15 garbage containers, and for the first time – a sewage suction truck entered Gaza yesterday.
8 tankers of fuel and 6 tankers of cooking gas were transferred into Gaza. 2 tankers of fuel were coordinated for humanitarian purposes in northern Gaza.
Today, between 10:00 and 14:00, the IDF will pause its operations in the Najar Arjalas neighbourhood in Khan Yunis to enable the movement of Humanitarian Aid.

With continued efforts to reach a ceasefire and diplomatic solution, US envoy Amos Hochstein will hold talks with Lebanese officials in Beirut later today.

According to latest reports the proposal would allow Israel to enforce the disarmament of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and maintain access to the country’s airspace.
Tomorrow, US Secretary of State Blinken is scheduled to arrive in Israel.

October 21, 2024

Hezbollah left with just 30% firepower

The IDF estimates Hezbollah has been left with only 30% of its firepower; over 2,000 Hezbollah terrorists have been killed in war so far, including more than 1,200 since start of ground operations.

October 20, 2024

Netanyahu gives Biden conditions for Lebanon diplomacy

The Israeli government has given the Biden administration its conditions for a diplomatic solution in Lebanon. Amos Hochstein is set to travel to Beirut this week to discuss with Lebanese officials.

Among Israel’s conditions, that the Israeli Air Force have freedom of operation in Lebanese air space and that Israel have enforcement rights in Southern Lebanon to make sure that Hezbollah does not build up its military infrastructure.

October 18, 2024

Five members of IDF’s Golani Brigade killed in south Lebanon

Five members of the Golani Brigade’s reconnaissance company were killed Wednesday during a firefight with Hezbollah in a village in south Lebanon.

The soldiers were operating in an area where heavy weapons and underground tunnel shafts had been discovered.
The soldiers opened fire at a building with tunnels shafts and continued firing while searching the premises. At one stage, four terrorists opened fire at the IDF force from a stairwell in the building and a face-to-face firefight ensued. Three IDF soldiers were killed on the spot; two more died of their wounds on the way to the hospital. Three more soldiers were critically wounded.
They were evacuated in three helicopters that were called to the site and landed at the hospital less than one hour after departing for the evacuation mission.
Separately, the IDF announced that the commander of Hezbollah’s Bint Jbeil battalion, Hussein Muhammed Auda had been killed. Auda was responsible for firing rockets at Israel from several towns in the Bint Jbeil district.
The IDF also killed the commander of Hezbollah’s Kana district. Jalal Mustafa Hariri had been responsible for planning and execution of many terror attacks against the Israeli home front from the Kafr Kana village.
The IDF also said dozens of terrorists were killed and more than 150 terror targets were destroyed.

October 16, 2024

UNIFIL and its problematic role in southern Lebanon

Background

The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) was established by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in March 1978. Its primary objective was to assist the Lebanese government in regaining control in southern Lebanon. In May 2000, Israel withdrew from the security zone it had held in southern Lebanon for eighteen years. In accordance with UNSC resolution 425, the UN recognised and confirmed Israel’s withdrawal and compliance. This UN endorsed boundary is referred to as “the Blue Line.”Following the Second Lebanon War of 2006, UN resolution 1701 expanded UNIFIL’s mandate to ensure that Hezbollah would not operate in the area south of the Litani River. Furthermore that area would serve as a buffer zone between Israel and Lebanon, free of armed personnel, assets, and weapons with the exception of UNIFIL and Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). As of September 2024, UNIFIL comprised approximately 10,000 peacekeepers from 50 countries. Indonesia is the biggest contributor with over 1,200 personnel, followed by India, Ghana, Nepal, Italy, Spain, France and Ireland. They are tasked with patrolling the region, facilitating Humanitarian Aid, and supporting local governance initiatives. Despite these efforts, its effectiveness has come under substantial criticism.Every year, UNIFIL’s mandate is renewed at the end of August. At this year’s meeting, Israel’s representative to the UN noted that Hezbollah has built a vast arsenal of rockets in southern Lebanon in UNIFIL’s area of operation. 90 per cent of the missiles fired at Israel that week were launched from civilian areas in their jurisdiction.

UNIFIL’s failures and Hezbollah violations since 2006

UNIFIL has struggled to fulfil its mandate due to significant operational constraints. For example it has been denied access to key areas misclassified as “private property” and over the years its personnel have encountered frequent threats and intimidation by Hezbollah. In 2009 the UN confirmed that Hezbollah violated UN resolution by stockpiling arms and ammunition south of the Litani River, following an explosion at an arms depot in the southern Lebanese village of Khirbet Silim. In 2015 Hezbollah launched a cross-border ambush, firing an anti-tank missile at an Israeli convoy. Two IDF soldiers were killed and seven injured. Since at least 2017, Hezbollah has circumvented UNIFIL and 1701, by operating under the guise of an NGO, “Green Without Borders”, which has established over 30 outposts along the Israeli border. In August 2023, the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, designated the Lebanon-based “Green Without Borders” and its leader, Zuhair Subhi Nahla, as affiliates to a terror organisation.

In August 2018 UNIFIL personnel tried to take photographs near Majdel Zoun. Hezbollah operatives seized UNIFIL peacekeepers’ weapons and set fire to their vehicles.In December 2018, the IDF exposed Hezbollah attack tunnels dug from southern Lebanon into northern Israel. One of the tunnels entered 40 metres in Israel. At Israel’s request UNIFIL carried out an independent assessment confirming the existence of four tunnels close to the Blue Line in northern Israel. UNIFIL said the tunnels constitute violations of resolution 1701.In 2019 a UNIFIL report stated that “Hezbollah activists in civilian clothes used force to prevent UNIFIL troops free movement, with roadblocks, harassment, threats, and theft of electronic equipment.” In December 2022, an Irish UNIFIL peacekeeper was killed and several others wounded after their convoy was shot at whilst driving through the town of Al-Aqbiya in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah was blamed but denied involvement.During the summer 2023, there were several provocative incidents by Hezbollah on the border. In one case two men were filmed climbing the security barrier and stealing an IDF surveillance camera. In a separate incident several men with face masks dressed in military camouflage fatigues walked along the border with Israel.In July 2023, 20 Lebanese figures, presumably Hezbollah members crossed about 80 metres into Israeli territory and placed two tents south of the Blue Line (inside Israel) in the of the Mount Dov region. In September 2023 Israel’s Defence Minister Gallant visited New York and told the UN Secretary-General that “the potential for escalation on the northern border has risen in the wake of serious violations of sovereignty by Lebanon. Iran is pushing Hezbollah to act.” At the time Gallant presented intelligence including maps and photographs highlighting Hezbollah’s recently established lookouts and increased presence on the border and attempts to create friction with IDF forces.On October 8^th 2023, a day after Hamas’s attacks on southern Israel, Hezbollah began to fire rockets, missiles and anti-tank weapons against both Israeli military and civilian targets. Prior to the IDF’s ground incursion earlier this month, Hezbollah fired over 9000 projectiles at Israel. The attacks since October 8^th 2023 have so far resulted in the deaths of 30 civilians (among them 12 children) and 43 soldiers, as well as the internal displacement of over 60,000 civilians.

IDF launches Operation Northern Arrows

On October 1^st 2024 the IDF launched a ground incursion targeting the Hezbollah infrastructure embedded close to the Israeli border, with the aim of allowing displaced Israeli residents of the north to safely return home. At that point UNIFIL were encouraged to leave their posts and retreat north for their own safety.In the first three weeks of the operation the IDF has uncovered and exposed the extent of Hezbollah force build-up of military infrastructure and hardware, some of which was found in close proximity to UNIFIL posts. According to IDF, Hezbollah had fired around 25 rockets and missiles in the last month close to UNIFIL sites. Since the ground operation has begun there have been two claims that Israel has violated UNIFIL’s mandate. In one incident an Israeli tank backed into the gates of a UNIFIL post. According to the IDF the incident took place as the tank, whilst under fire from Hezbollah, was evacuating injured soldiers. According to the IDF, they maintained lines of communication with UNIFIL throughout the incident, emphasising that at no point were UNIFIL personnel at risk. Speaking on October 14^th Prime Minster Netanyahu addressed these allegations saying, “The charge that Israel deliberately attacked UNIFIL personnel is completely false. It’s exactly the opposite. Israel repeatedly asked UNIFIL to get out of harm’s way. It repeatedly asked them to temporarily leave the combat zone, which is right next to Israel’s border with Lebanon.”Prime Minister Netanyahu further emphasised, “Israel is not fighting UNIFIL. It’s not fighting the people of Lebanon. It is fighting Iran’s proxy Hezbollah, which uses Lebanese territory to attack Israel… Hezbollah uses UNIFIL facilities and positions as cover while it attacks Israeli cities and communities. These attacks have claimed the lives of many Israelis.”

Conclusion

Hezbollah began violating the Resolution 1701 shortly after the Second Lebanon War ended, particularly in its effort to rebuild its military infrastructure embedded within Shiite villages in southern Lebanon. Within a decade, the number of violations had increased by 800 per cent and by the end of 2017, Hezbollah had committed around 13,000 violations of the agreement. In 2007, there were 410 violations. By 2017, according to the IDF, there were 3669 of these violations. Around two thirds of those were cases of armed combatants spotted south of the Litani River. Over the same period, Israel has also come under criticism for violating resolution 1701 by conducting intelligence gathering aerial sorties over southern Lebanon. Israel has argued these overflights were necessary given Hezbollah’s force build-up and the lack of accountability by the Lebanese government and UNIFIL. Hezbollah is currently firing missiles toward Israel from areas under the jurisdiction of LAF personnel and UNIFIL forces, the very entities tasked with enforcing the ban on Hezbollah or any other armed group’s presence in southern Lebanon. In efforts to bring the fighting to a conclusion, Israel will be demanding the removal of Hezbollah presence in the south and more vigorous implementation of resolution 1701 to permanently keep Hezbollah away.

October 15, 2024

Shooting attack in southern Israel, as rockets attacks continue

A police officer was killed and another person injured in an apparent terror shooting attack near Yavne, south of Tel Aviv.

According to initial assessments by emergency medical services, the shootings took place in two locations. The first, near the Yavne intersection, and the second in the Nir Galim junction.
Rocket sirens continue to be heard across northern and central Israel, yesterday and this morning.
As of last night, approximately 115 rockets were fired by Hezbollah into Israel. Sirens were heard across central Israel including Tel Aviv.
The IDF said that aerial defences intercepted several projectiles that crossed into Israeli territory, and there have not been any reports of casualties or damage.
Over the past day, in coordination with ground troops, the IAF struck more than 200 Hezbollah terrorist targets in southern Lebanon and deep within Lebanon, including terrorist cells, anti-tank missile posts, and surface-to-surface missile launchers.
In Gaza, IDF troops eliminated a terrorist cell in the Jabalya area that fired anti-tank missiles toward them. Additionally, the troops identified multiple armed terrorists that posed a threat.
According to COGAT data, Humanitarian Aid to Gaza continues with 83 trucks carrying humanitarian goods transferred to Gaza yesterday, via the Kerem Shalom Crossing.
Yesterday, the IDF announced that Sgt. Koren Bitan, 19, was killed in battle while fighting in the Gaza Strip. Overall, 740 soldiers have been killed since October 7th 2023.
On Monday the UK government announced that it has imposed new sanctions on Iranian military figures and organisations in response to Iran’s missile attack on Israel on 1st October.
The sanctions target senior leaders in the Iranian Army, Air Force, and IRGC Intelligence, as well as organisations like the Farzanegan Propulsion Systems Design Bureau (FPSDB) and the Iranian Space Agency, which are linked to missile development.
The measures include travel bans and asset freezes for individuals, and asset freezes for organisations involved in missile and military technology.

The IDF continues operational activity in southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, striking over 230 terrorist targets, as Hezbollah attacks continue.

The operation in southern Lebanon has now entered its third week. Alongside the standing IDF brigades, reservist brigades have also been given missions relatively deep inside Lebanon to remove the threat of an invasion of Israeli territory by the Radwan Force.
The IDF exposed an underground compound, 800 meters long and is fortified against air strikes, included living quarters, a fully-stocked kitchen, showers, motorbikes and other off-road vehicles, and hundreds of sophisticated weapons, including Kornet missiles and anti-aircraft missiles. The troops also found personal firearms and fresh food, which indicated that Radwan Force terrorists had been in the compound until very recently.
This week, IDF eliminated 11 senior Hezbollah commanders, including the head of Hezbollah’s logistics staff and a member of Hezbollah’s Jihad Council, the commander of the Radwan force’s attack area in Bint Jbeil, the artillery commander in Bint Jbeil, the commander of the Hajir sector, the outgoing commander of the Hajir sector, the commander of operations in the Hajir sector, the commander of the artillery in the Hajir sector, the commander of the Hula area, the commander of the anti-tank system in Mis al-Jabal, and the commander of Radwan’s anti-tank system in Mis al-Jabal.
IDF Northen Command Officials estimate that that in the ground manoeuvre in southern Lebanon 800 terrorists were killed.
The IDF are thought to be focusing on targeting Hezbollah’s drone units, following the drone attack on the military base on Sunday near Binyamina and the old age home in Herzliya a day earlier on Yom Kippur.
The operations in northern Gaza is focused on preventing Hamas reconstituting its power base there, including their ability to attack Israelis. Efforts have been made to evacuate Gazan civilians away from the combat zone, whilst Hamas are pressuring them to remain.
During the past week. the Islamic resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for 20 attacks against Israel.In five incidents, interception of aerial targets to Israel from Iraq was reported, and in another incident, a drone hit in an open area. The rest of the other incidents have no verification.
Since November 2023, the Islamic resistance in Iraq has begun to carry out attacks against Israel and by October 14, 2024, they have claimed responsibility for 208 attacks against Israel.
IDF continues its campaign to destroy Hezbollah’s arms smuggling from Syria and Lebanon. In the beginning of the month, IDF attacked underground infrastructure of Hezbollah’s Unit 4400, in northeastern Lebanon, which is responsible for transporting and smuggling Iranian weapons into Lebanon,
Following precise IDF and ISA intelligence, the IAF conducted a strike during the month of September 2024 and eliminated the terrorist Samer Abu Daqqa, Head of Hamas’ Aerial Unit. Abu Daqqa replaced the previous Head of Hamas’ Aerial Unit, who was eliminated in October 2023.
Samer Abu Daqqa was responsible for carrying out numerous terror attacks, including launching drones towards Israeli territory and IDF troops. He was among those responsible for the paraglider and drones’ infiltrations into Israeli territory during the October 7th Massacre.

October 14, 2024

Hezbollah drone kills four IDF soldiers 60km inside Israel

Four IDF soldiers were killed last night by a Hezbollah drone that exploded in a military training base near Binyamina.

The drone struck approximately 60km from the Lebanese border.
There was no siren, the drone directly struck the dining room, penetrating the roof and exploded during dinnertime.
Fifty-eight soldiers were wounded in the attack. Seven are in serious condition, nine are in moderate condition and the others are all in light condition.
According to the IDF’s preliminary inquiry, two drones were detected over the Mediterranean Sea. One was intercepted near Nahariya, but the second drone was lost for reasons that currently remain unclear.
In a sperate incident earlier on Sunday, 25 IDF soldiers were hospitalised after being wounded in combat in southern Lebanon. Two were described as seriously wounded, and 23 were moderately or lightly wounded.
During the evacuation of the injured soldiers an IDF tank backed into a United Nations Interim Force In Lebanon (UNIFL) post.
This was the second incident involving UNIFIL in recent days. The IDF admitted that on Friday six UNIFIL soldiers had been wounded by IDF fire, while the “troops were responding to a threat.” The IDF said that hours before the incident it had instructed UNIFIL forces to leave for safe civilian areas and to stay there.

Context: The IDF has now been operating on the ground in southern Lebanon for three weeks.

In that time they have uncovered the substantial military preparedness embedded within Lebanese villages close to the border including thousands of weapons and hundreds of tunnels.
In parallel Hezbollah have been consistently able to fire around 150 rockets, missiles and drones into northern Israel on a daily basis.
According to Defence Minister Gallant, his latest assessment is that, “only a third of short and medium-range missiles remain in Hezbollah’s possession.”
Several of the Hezbollah military outposts have been within close proximity of UNIFIL positions.
According to the IDF in the last month there has been approximately 25 rockets and missiles launched by Hezbollah from positions close to UNIFIL.
This has led to Prime Minister Netanyahu to release a video appealing directly to the UN Secretary General saying, “The time has come for you to withdraw UNIFIL from Hezbollah strongholds and from the combat zones. The IDF has requested this repeatedly and has met with repeated refusal, which has the effect of providing Hezbollah terrorists with human shields. Your refusal to evacuate UNIFIL soldiers has turned them into hostages of Hezbollah. This endangers both them and the lives of our soldiers. We regret the harm to UNIFIL soldiers and we are doing our utmost to prevent such harm. But the simplest and most obvious way to ensure this is simply to withdraw them from the danger zone.”
In addition the IDF has been keen to emphasise that during the incident yesterday all UNIFIL personnel were safe in their shelter and were in constant communication with the IDF.
The incident nevertheless drew criticism from Israel’s European allies and was also discussed on the latest call between Defence Minister Gallant and his US counterpart, Secretary of Defence Austin. According to a Department of Defence statement, Austin, “reinforced the importance of Israel taking all necessary measures to ensure the safety and security of UNIFIL forces and Lebanese Armed Forces, and the need to pivot from military operations in Lebanon to a diplomatic pathway to provide security for civilians on both sides of the border as soon as feasible.”
Gallant reportedly promised to continue to take all necessary measures to protect the peacekeeping force stationed in southern Lebanon, despite the operational challenge as a result of Hezbollah’s presence near UNIFIL positions.
The bitter irony is that UNIFIL was deployed in southern Lebanon as part of UN resolution 1701 to prevent the presence of armed Hezbollah fighters operating close to the Israeli border.
Israel does not yet have a holistic solution to the Iranian made drones deployed by Hezbollah. However, it is still estimated that more than half of the drones have been intercepted by a combination of IAF combat planes, or by the Iron Dome and David’s Sling systems.
The drones are small and hard to detect, plus they are capable of frequently changing altitude.
Israel’s ability to intercept rockets is far higher (over 90 per cent) but still could be overwhelmed by massive simultaneous barrages.

Looking ahead: Israel continues preparations and deliberations over the timing and nature of their response to the Iranian ballistic missile attack two week ago.

In an effort to help defend Israel from future Iranian attack, the Pentagon has confirmed that a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) battery will soon be deployed in Israel, controlled by US military personnel.
According to the Pentagon spokesperson, “The THAAD Battery will augment Israel’s integrated air defence system. This action underscores the United States’ ironclad commitment to the defence of Israel, and to defend Americans in Israel, from any further ballistic missile attacks by Iran. It is part of the broader adjustments the U.S. military has made in recent months, to support the defence of Israel and protect Americans from attacks by Iran and Iranian-aligned militias.”
Israel has developed a laser based interception system that will help combat the threat of drones, but it is only expected to be operational by the summer 2025.

October 10, 2024

Two killed in Kiryat Shmona as rocket attacks intensify

Attacks have intensified with Hezbollah firing around 220 rockets into northern Israel on Wednesday, with continued fire this morning.

In Kiryat Shmona, a couple in their mid-forties Revital Yehud and Dvir Sharvit, who had refused to be evacuated from their home, were killed by shrapnel while walking their dog.
Six people were wounded when 40 rockets hit Haifa and the nearby suburbs.
A building was damaged in Safed, and fires broke out in Hatzor Haglilit and the area surrounding the town.
Sirens sounded yesterday in Caesarea, Zichron Yaakov and other communities near the coast.
Six people were wounded in a terrorist stabbing attack in Hadera. Before being shot the assailant attacked people in four different locations across the city, wounding two in the first, a third in the second, two more in the third, and a sixth in the final location. He was later identified as Ahmad Jabarin, a 36-year-old Israeli citizen from Umm al-Fahm.
Two soldiers were killed, and two soldiers were wounded in the last two days. On Tuesday, Sgt. Noam Israel Abdu, was killed in a ground operation in the northern Gaza Strip. In the same operation, a soldier was severely injured. Another soldier was severely injured in southern Lebanon. This morning, Maj. (res) Ronny Gazinate, 36-years-old, was killed in combat in southern Lebanon.
The IDF continues its operational activity in southern Lebanon. Over the past day, IDF eliminated terrorists during close-quarter encounters and in aerial strikes, located and confiscated numerous weapons including anti-tank missiles. In addition, over 100 Hezbollah terror targets were destroyed.
Over the past day, the IAF struck approximately 185 Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, and in parallel approximately 45 Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip, including terrorist cells, infrastructure sites, military structures, observation posts, launchers, and weapons storage facilities.
The IDF announced it had assassinated two Hezbollah operatives, Ahmad Mustafa Al-Hajj Ali and Mohammad Ali Hamdan, who intended to carry out terrorist attacks in northern communities. The pair were responsible for launching hundreds of rockets and anti-tank missile toward the Kiryat Shmona area.
Last night, IDF intercepted a drone over the Red Sea, which was making its way toward Israel.
In an undercover operation in the West Bank city of Nablus, Israeli forces opened fire on a car in Nablus, killing four terror suspects.

Context: Despite the IDF offensive, Hezbollah is expanding its range and intensity of strikes against Israeli civilian communities .

According to the IDF Hezbollah actually fired over 350 rockets on Wednesday, with approximately 220 crossing over into Israel. Israel’s anti-missiles defences were able to intercept most of them, but the Hezbollah tactic is to try and overwhelm the system.
Wednesday’s attack on Kiryat Shmona was most sustained and heaviest barrage the city has faced since the war began.
In parallel the IDF appear satisfied with the progress they are making targeting Hezbollah’s military infrastructure. The IDF Chief of Staff struck a confident tone during the situational assessment yesterday saying, “Hezbollah is making efforts to conceal the significant damage we have inflicted…. They are experiencing command and control difficulties, leading to confusion at the decision-making level and challenges in their operational capabilities.”
The IDF are working off an orderly battle plan targeting hundreds of Hezbollah command centres, weapons storage facilities and military observation posts. In addition, whenever Hezbollah fires rockets the air force aims to destroy the launchers.
Along with the progress in southern Lebanon, the IDF again emphasised the importance of the attacking the Dahiya neighbourhood in Lebanon which they describe as, “a key terrorist stronghold for Hezbollah.” Adding, “this is where its decisions are made, and it manufactures and hides its strategic weapons – inside and below civilian buildings in Dahiya. Dahiya is not like the rest of Beirut.”
The latest messages from Hezbollah this week attests to their weakened condition and for first time in a year are no longer conditioning and connecting a ceasefire to the situation to Gaza.
At the same time reports are emerging of new approach led by the Mossad to try and reach an agreement to release the hostages. In a role reversal where before Hamas encouraged the Iranian proxies to join in attacking Israel and Hezbollah made any ceasefire conditional on the linkage. Now Israel is new reversing the equation and telling Iran if they want a ceasefire to save themselves and what’s left of Hezbollah they need to pressure Hamas to release the captives.
The three-way call yesterday between Prime Minister Netanyahu, US President Biden and Vice President Harris was their first call since the end of August.
Netanyahu’s insistence on the call as a perquisite for Gallant’s visit to the Pentagon was designed to ensure that Netanyahu remains personally engaged in the coordination with the US.
It is understood that the Biden administration has been working in recent days to moderate possible Israeli attacks and proposed a military-diplomatic “compensation package” instead.
The stabbing attack in Hadera is the third major terror attack in the last eight days, follows the attacks in Tel Aviv last Tuesday and Beer Sheva on Sunday. It was second attack committed by an Israeli-Arab citizen.
The mayor of Umm al-Fahm condemned the attack carried out by a resident of his city saying, “The fabric of common life must be preserved.”
There is heightened concern that in the immediate aftermath there is added motivation for copy-cat type attacks.

Looking ahead: IDF Chief of staff has committed to, “continue to strike Hezbollah with intensity, without allowing them any respite or recovery.”

The security cabinet is expected to meet this evening to discuss and approve the details of Israel’s response to Iran.
Defence Minister Gallant spoke about the anticipated response saying that, “Our attack will be lethal, precise and mainly surprising. They won’t understand what happened and how it happened; they’ll see the results.”
Part of the Israeli dilemma will be to calibrate a strike hard enough to end the cycle of attack and counter-attack.

LATEST

Key background

Seven killed in northern Israel

IDF: Over 1,500 Hezbollah terrorists eliminated

Israel targets Hezbollah financial infrastructure

Hezbollah left with just 30% firepower

Netanyahu gives Biden conditions for Lebanon diplomacy

Five members of IDF’s Golani Brigade killed in south Lebanon

UNIFIL and its problematic role in southern Lebanon

Shooting attack in southern Israel, as rockets attacks continue

Hezbollah drone kills four IDF soldiers 60km inside Israel

Two killed in Kiryat Shmona as rocket attacks intensify

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