What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu convened the inner security cabinet yesterday to discuss the tension on the Lebanese border.
- In attendance were Defence Minister Gallant, Minister for Strategic Affairs Dermer, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Halevi and the heads of the Mossad, the Shin Bet Security Service, IDF Intelligence and the Operations Directorate.
- At the conclusion of the meeting Netanyahu released a statement, “With respect to the threats emanating from [Hezbollah leader] Nasrallah’s bunker—we aren’t very impressed by them. On test day, he will find us standing together, shoulder-to-shoulder. Even Nasrallah knows it is not a good idea for him or for Lebanon to test us.”
- Meanwhile, Nasrallah once again gave a speech and threatened Israel. “Hezbollah will not hesitate and will not abandon its duty to defend, to liberate and to deter, and will not keep its head down in the face of the defeated entity. The organisation will be ready for Israel and will deal with any mistake it makes. Israel occupies parts of Lebanese territory and has the gall to speak about Hezbollah provocations on the border when it itself is the side that engages in provocations.”
- Earlier in the day, young men with Hezbollah flags vandalised the border fence and entered the village of Ghajar, under Israeli control.
Context: Over the last month, there have been at least four separate incidents on the border, including crossing the internationally recognised Blue Line, that are being interpreted as Hezbollah testing Israel’s resolve.
- In one incident two men were filmed climbing the security barrier and stealing an IDF surveillance camera.
- In a separate incident several men approached the security fence in the area near Metulla. They threw rocks and started a fire adjacent (on the Lebanese side) to the security fence. IDF soldiers fired warning shots into the air, and the suspects withdrew.
- Last week there was a recorded incident showing Hezbollah activists with face masks and dressed in military camouflage fatigues walking along the border with Israel. Following that incident, the IDF clarified, “The operatives did not cross the Blue Line and were under full surveillance by our forces at all times. There was no danger, either to our forces or to residents of the north.”
- Earlier this month, IDF soldiers fired warning shots and crowd dispersal measures to disperse at least 20 Lebanese citizens who crossed about 80 meters into Israeli territory in the Mount Dov region.
- Tension has been growing, since Hezbollah placed two tents south of the Blue Line (inside Israel) in the Mount Dov / Sheba farms area. Israel has used diplomatic channels (with the US, UN and France) which led to one of the tents being dismantled, while one tent remains.
- Early this month an anti-tank missile was fired towards the town of Ghajar on the Lebanese border. Israel responded with fire to the source.
- Ghajar is an Alawite village, captured by Israel from Syria in 1967. In 1981 it was annexed by Israel and its residents offered full Israeli citizenship. The village’s northern neighbourhood has since expanded into Lebanon. The UN recognises the Blue Line runs through the village, but Israel has built the fence around the northern perimeter to ensure security.
- Israel has been criticised for not responding more forcefully to these border provocations, but it is understood that Israel makes a qualitative distinction between Hezbollah provocations and more substantial operations that carry a more potent threat.
- For example, in March, a terrorist infiltrated Israel from Lebanon, made his way almost 45 miles into Israel and detonated a bomb at Megiddo junction. The powerful explosion demonstrated a more sophisticated bomb, beyond the capacity of the Palestinian terror groups sparking alarm over the potential Lebanonisation of the West Bank.
- There is concern that Hezbollah estimates that the domestic turmoil inside Israel has weakened resolve and made it more vulnerable to attack.
- The warning over the loss of Israeli deterrence was echoed last week. The theory is that Israeli deterrence is based on four principles: a powerful IDF, close ties with the US, a strong economy and strong social cohesion. There is a perception that all of these have been weakened as a result of the government’s focus on judicial reform. However, the assessment inside Israel, that if Hezbollah were to launch an attack the country would reunite.
Looking ahead: Israel will be reinforcing the Lebanon border with additional troops to prevent any further attempts at infiltration.
- The IDF are considering their response to remove the remaining tent, if their diplomatic efforts do not succeed.
- Overall, there is growing concern that under Iranian patronage Hezbollah and the Palestinian terror groups are increasing their cooperation and coordination.
