What’s happened: With the Gaza ceasefire holding and all the living hostages freed, the attention of the IDF has  shifted north to the Lebanese border.

• Over the last few days, Israel has conducted a number of operations in Lebanon to enforce the November 2024 ceasefire.
  • On Monday, the IDF carried out an air strike in the al-Biyad area of southern Lebanon that killed two Hezbollah operatives involved in restoring the terror group’s infrastructure in the area.
  • Last Thursday, an air strike destroyed a Hezbollah weapons depot in Nabatiyeh.
  • A wave of air strikes hit a Hezbollah training camp and a precision missile production site.
  • On Friday, two high profile Hezbollah commanders were killed in two separate drone strikes.
  • Senior Hezbollah military commanders were eliminated in two more air strikes on Saturday, including the commander of the elite Radwan Force’s Battalion B.
  • Another terror operative was eliminsated by the IDF on Sunday in Kabila in southern Lebanon in a motorcycle strike, a now familiar mode of operation in Lebanon.

Context: These operations follow an extensive division manoeuvre in the north that began on October 12 in order to counter the threat at the Israel’s northern border, where is Hezbollah systematically trying to attempting to re-establish their fighting presence within firing range of Israeli communities since the ceasefire came into effect a year ago.

• IDF operations in Lebanon since then have mostly focused either on destroying terrorist infrastructure – facilities for producing rockets – or eliminations of Hezbollah commanders. Among those were Ali Hussein Al-Mousawi, who, according to the IDF, was involved in smuggling rockets into Lebanon for use by Hezbollah.

• In parallel, Hezbollah continues to find itself isolated both politically and diplomatically. The Lebanese government, with US backing, continues to pursue a public line of wanting to decommission Hezbollah arms, though Israeli officials doubt very much this will be completed by the December 2025 deadline. And the loss of a state sponsor in Syria has cut off the direct land route from Lebanon to Iran.
• A report in Maariv detailing Hezbollah’s new weakness and isolation references unnamed Israeli officials as concerned that the Lebanese terrorist organisation may try to retake the initiative with an attack on Har Dov (also known as Shebaa Farms) or a rocket attack on northern Israel.
• On the one-year anniversary of his assumption of power, Hezbollah’s leader Naim Qassem gave an extensive interview to the terrorist group’s propaganda network al-Manar. He said, among other things, that the group has no intention of provoking a conflict with Israel right now. He claimed he could have sought refuge in Iran but preferred to stay in Lebanon. He reiterated his opposition to handing over Hezbollah weapons and also told his interviewer that he had no regrets about Hezbollah effectively joining Hamas’s war on Israel on October 8, 2023, one day after the Hamas attack on southern Israel.

Looking ahead: It has now been a week since Hamas last handed over any hostage. From Israel’s perspective, and especially with the passage of Trump’s deadline, this will constitute a severe violation of the ceasefire.

• Israel is considering range of responses including expanding the territory in the Strip under Israel’s control, retaking the Netzarim Corridor and restricting movement across it, and further delaying the reopening of the Rafah Crossing with Egypt.
• US envoy Mogran Ortagus arrived in Beirut for talks with Lebanese leaders to discuss the situation. She is due to meet with President Joseph Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri and PM Nawaf Salam today. 
• On Wednesday, she will preside over the “Mechanism” meeting (the name given for the monitoring committee for the 2024 ceasefire).
• Tom Barrack, another Trump administration envoy, is due in Lebanon in early November. He was quoted in Arabic press accounts as warning last week that Lebanon was heading to another confrontation with Israel if it did not act quickly to disarm the group in full.

What’s happened: In two fateful meetings last week, the Lebanese government agreed on a series of decisions that if successfully implemented will result in the decommissioning of Hezbollah’s weapons and the full implementation of Lebanese sovereignty over the southern portion of the country bordering Israel for the first time in more than fifty years.

• The decisions effectively commit Lebanon to the four-stage initiative of US special envoy Thomas Barrack for implementing the ceasefire that ended the Israeli-Lebanese war in November 2024. These stages include:
  • In the first stage, the LFA will take over 15 positions in southern Lebanon near the border with Israel, and Israel will cease offensive military actions without withdrawing from the strong points it has held onto since the war in 2024. The five-state monitoring committee, a relic from a previous ceasefire in 1996, will renew its operations. This stage is due to be completed by the end of 2025.
  • The second stage will last 45 days, during which the Lebanese will actively disarm non-state militias. Israel is expected to withdraw three of its five strongpoints.
  • In the third stage, Hezbollah is to be withdrawn entirely from southern Lebanon, and Israel is to leave its last two strongpoints. Lebanese civilians will be allowed to return to village and sites that were abandoned during the war. This stage is to last 30 days.
  • The fourth stage too will last 30 days. All heavy weapons are to be dismantled, and IDF and LFA deployments on each side of the border are to be certified, with all IDF forces south of the border and only LFA forces north of it.
• Hezbollah rejected the government’s decision, branding it a “grave sin.” Ministers affiliated with Hezbollah and Amal, the other major Shiite militia, left the meeting in protest. Hezbollah deputy political council chairman Mahmoud Qamati accused the government of surrendering to foreign pressure, adding that “no one can disarm the resistance.”
• Factions opposed to Hezbollah hailed the decision. Lebanon’s Foreign Minister called it “historic” and claimed it was irreversible. Justice Minister Adel Nassar noted that weapons in the hands of non-state militias hadn’t protected Lebanon in war, but rather caused wars.
• US Envoy Thomas Barrak praised the decision to implement “one people, one army” as “making the historic, bold, and correct decision to begin fully implementing the ceasefire agreement, Resolution 1701, and the Taif Agreement.”
• Following the Lebanese government decision to accede to the Barrack initiative, the Lebanese Armed Forces have reportedly dismissed a key intelligence chief known for his close ties to Hezbollah. This is interpreted in Lebanon as yet another sign that the government is serious about eventually decommissioning Hezbollah entirely and asserting its own monopoly on armed force inside the country.
• Concurrently, Israel and the United States are working behind the scenes at the United Nations to stop the automatic renewal of UNIFIL’s mandate. With the Lebanese state now poised to take responsibility for southern Lebanon, it is not clear what purpose UNIFIL might fill, and other countries are reportedly warming to the Israeli and American initiative.
• France has indicated that would support a resolution that only renews UNIFIL’s mandate for one year, during which an orderly transfer of its facilities to the Lebanese Armed Forces could take place.

Context: The war between Israel and Hezbollah war continued as a low intensity conflict from October 8, 2023 when Hezbollah began launching rockets on Israel in solidarity with Hamas the day after the latter launched its deadly massacre on Israel.

• It escalated into a full-scale war in September 2024 with a series of devastating Israeli attacks beginning with pager and radio detonations crippled the Shiite militia, destroyed most of its missile arsenal, and killed almost its entire leadership.
• Since the ceasefire went into effect, Israel has heldonto five strongpoints in southern Lebanon and regularly enforced its provisions with offensive military action. Just last week, for example, the IDF struck a Hezbollah weapons storage facility and missile launcher.
• UNIFIL was established in 1978 as an interim peacekeeping force in Southern Lebanon. Its mandate was expanded in UN Security Council resolution 1701, which ended the Second Lebanon War in 2006, to include responsibility to prevent an armed Hezbollah presence south of Litani River, a mission it never endeavoured to carry out.
• Since the 1969 Cairo Agreement, Lebanon has not operated as a state in control of its own foreign and defence policy. The agreement placed authority over UNRWA facilities in the hands of the PLO rather than the Lebanese state, and allowed the PLO to pursue armed conflict with Israe lwithout needing to coordinate with the Lebanese state.
• Since that time, southern Lebanon has been a staging ground for a variety of armed factions, including the Palestinian,Christian, and Shiite militias, and the IDF, which patrolled a “security zone” in southern Lebanon from 1985 until its full withdrawal in 2000.
• In that entire time, the Lebanon-Israel border has been either a primary or secondary front of the Arab-Israeli conflict, replacing Egypt (which made peace with Israel in 1979), Jordan (which did so in 1994), and Syria (where a cold truce held for decades).

Looking ahead: As Israel prepares for a renewed offensive in Gaza, Egypt is expected to present a new proposal for a ceasefire that would stop the Israeli operation before it gets underway.

• The Egyptian proposal, which will be presented to a Hamas delegation due to arrive in Cairo later this week, will for the first time incorporate Israel’s demand for some kind of Hamas disarmament.
• Hamas weapons will be “frozen” according to reports of the proposal, though it is unclear if they will be retained by Hamas or, as Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has suggested, they will be stored in warehouses under PA guard and supervision.
• The Egyptian proposal calls for a Palestinian police force to be deployed to Gaza following training by the US and Arab countries. Under the proposal, Hamas would release all the hostages it currently holds, and Israel would release thousands of Palestinian prisoners as well.
• Hamas would accept an Israeli redeployment in the Gaza Strip for a transitional period under Arab-American supervision. Neither Israel nor Hamas have given a response as of yet to the Egyptian proposal.

What’s happened: Eight months into the ceasefire with Lebanon, Israel launched a “focused” ground operation against a Hezbollah positions close to the border. 

• Based on intelligence, the IDF identified several areas of southern Lebanon where Hezbollah had re-established its military posts and launched special, targeted operations to dismantle them.
• According to the IDF, in one of the operations in the Jabal Blat ridge, which looks into the Israeli border community of Zarit, troops “located a compound containing weapons depots and firing positions belonging to Hezbollah” adding that reservist soldiers dismantled the terrorist infrastructure.
• In another operation, “reservist soldiers located weapons hidden in thicketed terrain in the Labbouneh area, including a multi-barrel launcher, a heavy machine gun, and dozens of explosive devices.” Labbouneh is less than 3km away from the Israeli town of Shlomi.     
• Troops also found an underground weapons storage facility which was also dismantled.
• The operation was deemed a necessary component in order to enforce the ceasefire. According to the ceasefire agreement, Israel can act to prevent Hezbollah re-entrenchment along the border. 

What’s happened: The Israeli Air Force (IAF) struck a Hezbollah storage facility containing precision guided missiles on Sunday.

• The warehouse was in the Dahiya neighbourhood, the key Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut.
• Prior to the strike, evacuation warnings were sent to the surrounding area, and the IDF also first dropped light munitions on the targeted building, the ‘knocks on the roof” signifying its imminent destruction. 
• The IDF stated that according to the provisions of the November 2024 ceasefire, the storage of missiles at the site “constitutes a blatant violation of the understandings between Israel and Lebanon, and poses a threat to the State of Israel and its civilians.”
• Following the strike a large fire broke out, caused by secondary explosions, demonstrating the building held highly explosive material.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Katz issued a joint statement noting, “Israel will not allow Hezbollah to strengthen and create any threat to it – anywhere in Lebanon. The Dahiya quarter in Beirut will not serve as a sanctuary for the Hezbollah terrorist organisation. The Government of Lebanon bears direct responsibility for preventing such threats. Israel will insist on its war objective of returning the residents of the north safely to their homes.”
• In response to the strike Lebanese President Aoun condemned the Israeli attack, “The US and France, as guarantors of the cessation of hostilities, must take their responsibility and oblige Israel to immediately cease its attacks. Israel’s continued destabilisation will exacerbate tensions and expose the region to real threats to its security and stability.”

Context: Israel continues to insist on freedom to act against perceived threats by Hezbollah in Lebanon. 

• According to analysis by the Alma research centre, in the six months since the ceasefire in the north, the IAF have carried out over 300 airstrikes.
  • 46 per cent occurred in the area south of the Litani River, where “Hezbollah continues to engage in significant activity, including reconstruction efforts, reorganisation, strengthening its capabilities, and renewing operation readiness against Israel” and where according to the ceasefire agreement, Hezbollah is not supposed to be present.
  • Approximately 53 per cent of the strikes were both north of Litani and in the Beqaa Valley area, to prevent weapons smuggling from Syria. 
  • Fewer than 1 per cent have targeted Beirut, making yesterday’s strike rare. 
• It is understood that prior to the Beirut strike Israel updated the US on its intentions.  

What’s happening: The IDF is due to complete its withdrawal from villages in southern Lebanon today.    

• However, the IDF is committed to remaining in five strategic locations:
  • Hasullam mountain range – overlooking Shlomi.
  • ⁠Jabal Blat – overlooking Zarit, Nurit and Shtula.
  • Hashaked mountain range – overlooking Avivim and Mallaqi’a.
  • ⁠Hatzivoni mountain range – overlooking Saluq, Margaliot and Manara.
  • Tel ⁠Hamamis – overlooking Har-Dov, Metula. ·  
• The IDF believes these areas are vital due to their topography. An IDF presence will ensure Hezbollah cannot approach the border area.  
• Following the withdrawal, the IDF will deploy a large number of troops along the ‘Blue Line’ border area. There will be around triple the amount of troops that there were prior to October 7^th. 
• The IDF is also in the process of establishing new positions protecting every Israeli community close to the border and is investing in advanced camera systems and sensors all along the fence.
• Up until this past weekend the IDF continued to expose and destroy Hezbollah military infrastructure, including tunnels, weapons caches, and rocket launchers.
• According to the IDF, on Sunday the Israeli Air Force (IAF) conducted “precision, intelligence-based strikes on a number of military sites in Lebanese territory containing rocket launchers and weapons, where Hezbollah activity had been identified.”
• On Saturday it struck a “central terrorist in Hezbollah’s aerial unit in the area of southern Lebanon. The terrorist was targeted after repeatedly violating the understandings between Israel and Lebanon over the past few weeks, including his role in leading the launch of UAVs toward Israeli territory.”
• Yesterday, IAF jets killed Muhammad Shaheen in the area of Sidon. Shaheen served as the head of Hamas’ Operations Department in Lebanon.

Context: Israel reached an understanding with the US to remain in those five outposts, despite the original ceasefire agreement calling for a complete withdrawal.

• Israel’s redeployment means the IDF has now left all Lebanese villages. The outposts lie outside populated areas, so there is little expectation of engagement or interaction with the local population.     
• Although the Lebanese government is yet to formally comment on the Israeli deployment, President Aoun has been quoted in Lebanese media saying, “the option of war is not helpful and we will act using diplomatic means.”
• Under the terms of the ceasefire agreement Israel can and will continue to monitor Hezbollah activity and maintain freedom to act if the threat is considered imminent.
• In other circumstances they will register any violations with the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the US led monitoring mechanism.
• Israeli military officials were hoping the LAF would have deployed faster, but are relatively satisfied with their performance so far. The LAF has successfully deployed in the south as well as along the Syria-Lebanon border.
• Prior to the withdrawal IDF troops scoured nearly every house in Lebanon within a strip of land 5-8 km from the Israeli border.  
• One key test will now be the return of Hezbollah operatives to the villages in the south along with the civilian population. Israeli intelligence is expected to monitor the situation closely to ensure no efforts are made to rebuild their military infrastructure.
• Israel is aware of continued efforts by Iran to support Hezbollah.  Last week Israel warned the control room at Beirut airport not to let an Iranian commercial airliner land as intelligence had identified it as transporting funds destined for Hezbollah.  
• The strike in Sidon that targeted Muhammad Shaheen is the latest example of Hamas – Hezbollah – Iranian cooperation inside Lebanon. He was targeted based on intelligence that he was planning terror attacks, directed and funded by Iran.  He had previously been involved in firing rockets into Israel.
• Shaheen was also considered a close ally of former Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri, (who was killed in January 2024) and part of the network directing terror attacks in the West Bank.

Hostage negotiations: Reported progress has been made in talks with Hamas to release the remaining six living hostages and eight bodies according to the terms of the first stage of the deal.

• In return, Israel is prepared to release all of the Palestinian prisoners slated for release in the first stage of the deal. Israel will also allow mobile homes, tents and bulldozers to be delivered into the Gaza Strip, that are currently waiting on the Egyptian side of the Rafah crossing.
• Four of the dead hostages could be released on Thursday.
• The handover of bodies will take a different format:
  • Mediators will be given the names of the four dead hostages on Thursday morning.
  • The Military Chaplain’s Office officials will receive the bodies, and will bring them to the National Centre for Forensic Medicine for identification.
  • Only once they have been positively identified will Israeli authorities inform the families and then the public.  
• The security cabinet met last night to formulate its position over the second stage of the ceasefire agreement.
• The two sides have contradictory demands. Hamas is expecting a declaration that the war is over and a full IDF withdrawal.
• Israel demands:
• The release of all hostages alive and dead.
• The demilitarisation of Gaza, with Hamas giving up its weapons.
• The exile of Hamas’ leadership.
• With all this extremely unlikely, it remains unclear where this will take us.
• Instead of a phase two, there could be efforts to extend the first stage, with Israel releasing more prisoners in return for remaining hostages.  
• Meanwhile, President Trump’s envoy Witkoff repeated yesterday that not a single hostage would be left behind in Gaza, adding that President Trump would make sure that all of the hostages would be freed.

 Looking ahead: From tomorrow, residents of the southern Lebanese villages close to the border with Israel are expected to return to their homes.

• The IDF is to remain vigilant and prevent anyone from approaching the proximity of the border area.
• Evacuated Israeli residents of the north are expected to return home from March 2^nd.  
• The IDF is expected to remain in those five outposts until it is reassured that the LAF has complete control and that the area is clear of Hezbollah

Israel’s Foreign Minister, Gideon Sa’ar, posted on X (formerly Twitter) today saying: “I congratulate Lebanon upon the election of a new President, following a lengthy political crisis. I hope that this choice will contribute towards stability, a better future for Lebanon and its people and to good neighborly relations.”