Iran and their Proxies 9

Updated June 18, 2025

Israeli strikes continue as speculation over US role grows

War Update: Earlier this morning, the IAF mounted a large operation involving at least 50 fighter jets attacking 20 targets in Iran.

According to the IDF, the principal target in Tehran was a factory producing centrifuges for Iran’s nuclear programme. Other targets included factories for the assembly of surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles.
Overnight the Iranians sent two barrages of missiles at Israeli cities resulting in some damage but no casualties. Twenty-five missiles and two drones were fired in total, fewer than in any night since the outbreak of hostilities. In five nights of Iranian attacks, 24 Israelis have been killed.
The Iranians claimed to have fired a hypersonic missile at Israel last night, but this did not change the result which, from the Iranian perspective, was an increasingly ineffective pattern of attacks.
Before the missile launches, Iranian state media claimed there would be a “surprise” overnight that “the world will remember for centuries.” It is not clear if this was a reference to later claim of a hypersonic missile. But the Iranian attacks have, over five nights, gradually shrunk in scope as the IAF continues to strike missile launchers and munitions.
Writing in Maariv, Ben Caspit notes that, “The Iranians had planned to fire 500 missiles in their first barrage, but only managed to fire off 50. The following day they were down to 20-30 per barrage, and now they’re down to two-to-three. The IAF has forced the Iranian missile launchers to flee from western Iran, which is relatively closer to Israel, to the Isfahan district. Now, the IAF is hunting them down there as well. I find it hard to believe the words that I’m writing. The Iranians are being hunted in their own country. And they’re fleeing.”
The Wall Street Journal reports that U.S. officials believe that Israel’s Arrow interceptor missiles are beginning to run low and that Iran has more missiles than Israel has interceptors. The report also speculated that the number of American THAAD interceptors was also limited and could not sustain a long campaign.

International context: President Trump left the G7 summit in Kananaskis in the Canadian Rockies early yesterday, ostensibly to deal with the situation in Iran. At the summit, leaders of the G7 nations issued a statement calling for a “de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, including a ceasefire in Gaza,” pointedly not calling for a ceasefire in the Iran-Israel war.

Trump’s social media posts and public statements continued to raise speculations about possible American involvement in the war in Iran. Yesterday he demanded an “unconditional surrender” from Iran. He also boasted, “We have complete and total control of the skies of Iran,” though there is no evidence that any American forces have been involved in the Israeli offensive in Iran.
The focus of speculation on American involvement is the Fordow facility, Iran’s most protected uranium enrichment site, located deep inside a mountain about 20 kilometres from the holy city of Qom. Thus far, Israel has not attacked the site. It is widely believed that the only kind of munition that could destroy the facility is the 14-ton GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) which only the US possesses and which it has never agreed to sell to Israel. Moreover, the only plan capable of delivering such a bomb is the American B-2, which Israel does not possess. An American attack on Fordow could damage the facility beyond repair at the risk of an Iranian retaliation against American assets in the region.
The amount of attention focused on American action at one specific site with one specific weapon is unusual, and possibly distracting. There may very well be other means of decommissioning the facility, and it would be odd for Israel to launch a war that can only be brought to a conclusion by a weapon it does not possess used by a country uncommitted to the war effort.
Also at Kananaskis, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz gave a long interview to German network ZDF about the International situation. He referred to the Israeli offensive in Iran as “the dirty work that Israel does for all of us.” He accused the Iranian regime of having brought “death and destruction to the entire world,” and added, “I can only say, I have the utmost respect for the Israeli army, the Israeli government, having the courage to do this.”

Looking Ahead: As speculation mounts of a possible US involvement in the war on Iran, the US shifted assets to the region. At least 30 U.S. military tanker planes, used to refuel fighter and bombers in midair, moved from bases in the U.S. to Europe. According to a report in Reuters, the US also concentrated several F-16, F-22 and F-35 fighter aircraft at bases in the Gulf region.

Today Israeli airlines will begin repatriation flights to bring home to Israel the tens of thousands of Israelis who were stranded abroad when Israeli airspace abruptly closed to commercial traffic at the beginning of the war.

June 17, 2025

IDF eliminates new Iran’s chief of staff

Latest update: Sirens were triggered three times over night in different areas by limited-scale missile fire.

Two barrages consisted of a few missiles each, the third alert was for a single missile filed in the north. No missile strikes or injuries were reported in any of the incidents.
This morning during a fourth barrage Iran fired a barrage of 20 missiles on central Israel. Five missiles are thought to have landed in the greater Tel Aviv area. Five people suffered from minor injuries.
For the second time in five days, the IDF has eliminated Iran’s Chief of Staff. Ali Shadmani, Iran’s most senior military official and Khamenei’s closest military adviser, was eliminated in an IAF precision strike guided by intelligence in central Tehran.
The IDF continues their aerial campaign, among the substantial achievements so far:
- The nuclear sites in Natanz and Isfahan have been degraded.
- The scope of missile fire on Israel has been reduced, with 120 of the launchers destroyed representing around a third of Iran’s launchers capacity.
- Senior Iranian military leaders have been eliminated, as well as scientists who worked for the Iranian nuclear programme.
- The Israeli Air Force (IAF) has secured freedom of action over Iranian airspace.
So far Iran has fired around 390 surface-to-surface missiles and hundreds of attack drones. Most barrages have included between 30 and 60 missiles. Between five and ten per cent of the missiles fired in those barrages successfully evaded Israel’s missile defence systems, killing 24 civilians, with additional one woman, in Bat Yam, missing, feared to be dead.
Iran still retains capacity to fire more missiles. The IAF are expected to continue to degrade their missile capacity and target the nuclear infrastructure.

June 16, 2025

Israel continues to strike target across Iran, 8 killed overnight in Israel

Inside Iran: Israel’s air supremacy over the skies of Iran allowed the IDF to continue to target a range of military and nuclear assets across the country.

In Tehran, Israel targeted the head of IRGC intelligence Mohammad Kazem and his deputy Hassan Mohaqiq, both were apparently buried under the rubble after their intelligence headquarters was struck.
As well as air strikes, there were reports of at least five car bombs detonated on the streets of Tehran, with the understanding that more nuclear scientists were targeted.
At least 14 Iranian nuclear scientists have been eliminated since Friday.
Elsewhere the Israeli Air Force (IAF) continued to strike Iranian surface-to-surface missiles and their launchers as they prepared to fire more missiles at Israeli cities.
In perhaps one of the IAF’s furthest ever strikes, fighter jets struck Mashad air force bases approximately 2,300km from Israel (close to the Iranian-Turkmenistani border).
Israel also struck Iran’s fuel reserves, officials explained that they are used by the Iranian regime for military purposes and for attacks against Israel and its civilians.

Inside Israel: For a third consecutive night Israel was under heavy attack. Waves of missiles, sent Israelis across the country into their protective spaces.

Overnight, eight people were killed, while 287 were hospitalised with injuries.

Four people were killed in Petah Tikva by an Iranian missile early this morning. Another 38 were taken to hospital, including two in serious condition.
In Haifa, three people were pronounced dead after their bodies were recovered from beneath the rubble. Rescue efforts were ongoing this morning.
One person was killed in Bnei Brak, just outside Tel Aviv.
As of 1015 local time this morning, there have been over 370 ballistic missiles launched, plus hundreds of drones, with 30 impact sites recorded.
Since Friday, 24 people have died, 10 people are hospitalised in serious condition.

Context: Three days into Operation Rising Lion, the IDF has struck over 170 individual targets and more than 720 military assets.

The IDF announced that it “continues to intensify the blow to the Iranian nuclear threat, targeting its heart and depriving it of critical capabilities and components for weapon production.”
Speaking on Sunday, IDF Chief of Staff Zamir said, “The IDF, through the Israeli Air Force, has paved the way to Tehran and is striking the regime’s infrastructure and nuclear programme with precision and scale beyond what the enemy had anticipated.”
He added, “The offensive operations we are conducting in Iran are reshaping the strategic reality of the State of Israel. We are removing an existential threat and reinforcing our security.”
The basis of Israel’s successful operation so far has been to establish the air corridor to Iran and air supremacy over Iran. This was achieved as a result of operations over the last year that saw the systematic destruction of Hezbollah’s advanced anti-aircraft batteries and similar capabilities in Syria after the Assad regime fell from power. These systems would have provided the Iranians with early-detection capabilities.
This in turn has created a new dynamic whereby the IAF no longer needs to rely on expensive weapons (that they have in smaller quantity) that are fired from a great distance (hundreds of kms). Over the last couple of day pilots are able to attack their targets from much closer, using cheaper more readily available munitions. The IAF has also deployed drones that can search for their targets over Tehran.
Although the Trump administration is not formally part of the offensive, their commitment to maintain the supply of munitions is an important factor in the Israeli calculus.
The US, through CENTCOM is also playing an important role behind the scenes, supporting Israel defensively, with intelligence gathering and crucially helping to provide early warning of incoming Iranian launches.
As part of the IDF’s efforts to defend the home front they announced this morning that one third of Iran’s surface-to-surface missile launchers have been destroyed.

Looking ahead: Both Israel and Iran are threatening to intensify their attacks.

President Trump has committed to continue to support Israel in defending itself, though he has expressed hope that the war would end. Trump said that it was time for a deal but sometimes there was no choice but to fight.
The US is also increasing diplomatic pressure on Iran by enhancing its military presence in locations from which it could strike Iran. This includes the Diego Garcia base on the Chagos Islands.

June 15, 2025

Israel keeps up offensive, as Iranian missiles kill Israeli civilians

What’s happened: The Israeli Air Force (IAF) has continued their campaign again Iranian nuclear sites, missile launchers and infrastructure.

Throughout Friday and Saturday night, Iran launched repeated waves of ballistic missiles towards Israel.
Of the over two hundred missiles fired the majority were intercepted, although several landed in residential areas. Eight Israelis were killed overnight Saturday night / Sunday morning bringing the total number of Israeli dead to 11.
In the northern Arab town of Tamra four women from the Khatib family were killed. The victims are Manar al-Qasssam Khatib and her two daughters, Hala and Shada, and another relative, Manal Diab Khatib. Fourteen people were wounded, one of whom is in critical condition.
In Bat Yam four people were killed by a missile that struck a 14-story building. The victims are an eight-year-old girl, a ten-year-old boy, a 60-year-old woman and an 80-year-old woman.
Rescue workers are still scouring the destroyed building for victims and survivors. Thirty-five people are still defined as missing.
Another missile struck a building in Rehovot. Between Bat Yam and Rehovot a total of 207 people were wounded. Six have been hospitalised in serious condition; the others are listed as being in either moderate or light condition.
Impacts were also reported elsewhere with sirens sounding across much of central Israel, Ashdod, and parts of Jerusalem.
According to an Iranian media outlet, 215 people have been killed so far in Israeli air strikes, and 650 have been wounded.

Yemen: In support of Iran, on Friday evening, the Houthis fired a single ballistic missile from Yemen which impacted in the West Bank town of Sa’ir, injuring five Palestinians including three children.

Hours later, a number of drones were also launched at Israel from Yemen and intercepted in transit.
Israel is also reported to have launched an airstrike on Yemen targeting Muhammad Al-Ghamari, who is the Houthis’ chief of staff. While it is unclear whether or not the assassination attempt was successful, it is the first time that any state has attempted to kill a senior member of the Houthis’ leadership, with previous operations instead focusing on degrading and destroying their military infrastructure. Israel is yet to formally comment on these reports.

Context: The preliminary assessments suggest that Israel has made some remarkable achievements so far.

In the opening strike, the IDF and Mossad inflicted heavy damage, killing an array of senior military commanders and senior nuclear scientists. The strikes caused severe damage to nuclear facilities in Natanz and Isfahan, as well as incapacitating numerous defence systems and ballistic missiles production sites.
Israel has now established a flight corridor to Iran and air supremacy over western Iran and Tehran.
However, Israel has not yet completed its overarching objective, and hasn’t yet destroyed Iran’s nuclear programme and its missile capabilities.
The attacks on Israel’s home front reinforce the urgency of Israel’s campaign to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. Any of the hundreds of ballistic missiles launched at Israel could have been armed with a nuclear warhead, had Iran been allowed to achieve its goal.
Although several nuclear sites have already been targeted, the Fordow site hasn’t yet been significantly damaged. The IAF does have some capabilities, but is limited in their ability to penetrate a site built under a mountain. The US are believed to be the only ones with the necessary capabilities, so Israel may well try to persuade the US to strike Fordow. Only a strike deep underground in Fordow will remove the nuclear threat for the foreseeable future.
Although, so far Israel has acted independently, the assumption is that the US gave tacit consent. Officials in Jerusalem sense that Trump is pleased with the results of the strike on Iran so far, but has not yet decided whether to join.
With or without the US, Israel still has a full list of targets for the coming days and the fighting is expected to continue.
Prime Ministers Starmer and Netanyahu spoke with each other on Friday afternoon. A Downing Street read out says that “The Prime Minister was clear that Israel has a right to self-defence and set out the UK’s grave concerns about Iran’s nuclear programme. He reiterated the need for de-escalation and a diplomatic resolution, in the interests of stability in the region.”
Prime Minister Starmer has also deployed additional British forces to the Middle East, including fighter jets while refusing to rule out the prospect of acting in defence of Israel as the UK previously did during Iran’s missile attacks of April and October 2024.
Meanwhile, Iran has threatened to attack British, American, and French troops stationed in the region if they act to defend Israel.
The initial successes is a form of a corrective experience, particularly for military intelligence and operations following the resounding failure around October 7. As veteran analyst Nahum Barnea wrote, “That may not be any consolation, but it is compensation.”
Even among some of his critics there is recognition that Netanyahu also deserves credit for making such a fateful and decisive decision.

Looking ahead: Officials estimate that several more days of fighting lie ahead, and the Israeli public must prepare accordingly.

Israel remains in lockdown, with the airport closed, only essential workplaces will be open today. Schools remain closed, with remote learning in place at least until the end of this week.
There is speculation whether Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is a target or not, with a senior defence official cryptically telling the Wall Street Journal that he is “not off limits.”

June 13, 2025

Israel launches major operation against Iranian nuclear programme

What’s happening: In the early hours of Friday morning Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, targeting the Iranian nuclear programme and significant military targets.

The attack began with waves of Israel Air Force (IAF) strikes.
The first wave targeted Iran’s General Staff and the headquarters of its intelligence service in Tehran. Immediately thereafter, the second wave struck some nuclear installations and missile facilities, including:
- Nuclear site in Natanz, one of the central sites of the Iranian nuclear programme.
- The heavy water reactor in Arak
- the Parchin military facility
- The Khondab nuclear reactor
- Other targets in Kermanshah, Ilam, Qom, Hamadan, Khorramabad, Piranshahr, Tabriz and Qasr-e Shirin.
The third aerial group targeted several dozen high-ranking Iranians military and government officials.
According to Iranian state TV the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander (IRGC) Hossein Salami was eliminated along with three of the organisation’s senior officers had been eliminated in the preliminary air strike.
Other high-ranking Iranians, including Iranian Chief of Staff Mohammed Bagheri, Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani and the head of the country’s air and space force, and nuclear scientists have also been successfully targeted.
It is understood that pre-deployed Mossad commando units operating on the ground in Iran were involved in launching precision-guided munitions that targeted Iranian surface-to-air missiles, other air defences, as well as ground-to-ground missiles that would have been used in a retaliatory strike against Israel.

Israel’s Home Front: This morning, the Israel’s home front was on highest state of alert as Iran launched their drone counter attack against Israel.

Later in the morning IDF announced that all drones have been intercepted and the immediate danger has passed.
According to Home Front Command directives, there will be no school activities and public gathering. The Pride Parade that was scheduled to take place today in Tel Aviv has been cancelled.
Defence Minister Katz declared a special situation, “In wake of the State of Israel’s pre-emptive attack on Iran, a missile and drone attack against Israel and the civilian population is expected in the immediate timeframe.”

Context: This operation has been planned for years, as the Iranian nuclear programme was perceived as the greatest existential threat to the State of Israel.

It is understood the whole of the IAF was participating in the attack.
Operation Rising Lion is a reference to the biblical verse, “Behold, a people that rises like a lioness and raises itself like a lion.” Numbers 23:24.
Israeli officials issued clarifications saying that the operation’s objective was not to topple the Iranian regime, but to remove existential threats to Israel.
The air strikes began after Israel assessed that the Iranian regime had enriched fissile material for 15 nuclear bombs.
In the last few months, Israeli intelligence reached an assessment that the Iranian’s were close to the point of nuclear no-return.
The IDF understood that for the first time that the Iranians were developing a secret plan to make technological progress on all aspects of developing nuclear weapons. According to the intelligence, this included efforts to manufacture thousands of kilograms of enriched uranium, spread out across the country in underground sites.
In addition, real progress was seen in the Iranian effort to manufacture all the parts of a nuclear bomb, included technological and operational components.
As part of a diversion, Netanyahu announced yesterday that he and his family were going on vacation in northern Israel before the wedding of his son in order to signal to the Iranians that Israel did not intend to launch an attack.
The elimination of Hossein Salami, along with the commander of Iran’s armed forces, Mohammad Bagheri, is highly significant. Salami was the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). He joined the IRGC when the Iran-Iraq War erupted in the early 1980s. In the past he commanded the air force and the navy of the Revolutionary Guard. He was appointed deputy commander of IRGC in 2009, and he was appointed the commander in April 2019.
Salami was known for his aggressive, violent and defiant speeches against the US, Israel and the Arab states. He espoused a hardline ideology and promoted the vision of “exporting the Islamic revolution” and expanding Iran’s influence in regional and international theatres. Under his command, they intensified its involvement in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen, and stressed the importance of “jihad” against Iran’s enemies.
Salami was very close to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and appeared by his side at many events. Together with Khamenei, Salami also led Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
Salami’s elimination is being compared to that of other senior officials, such as Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah and top Hamas officials. Salami was one of the more prominent faces of Iran’s terrorist battle against Israel specifically and against the West in general. His elimination is likely to have a major impact on Iran’s security leadership in the immediate term.
The IRGC, led by Salami, was a prime suspect in the recent attempted terrorist attack against the Israeli Embassy in London.

Looking ahead: Having launched the initial attacks, it is unclear how long the whole operation could take to destroy the entire nuclear programme.

Israel is bracing for the Iranian response, it could take a combination of three forms:
- Ballistic missiles, in which case the Arrow 3 system will be activated.
- Another option are cruise missiles, which take two hours to reach Israel, against which Israel can use the Iron Dome and David’s Sling systems.
- Drones, which take nine hours and against which Israel can use the Patriot and Iron Dome systems.

June 12, 2025

Tensions increase with Iran

What’s happened: The entire region was jolted by the American announcement that the US was withdrawing its diplomats from Iraq and authorising voluntary departures of military families from countries throughout the Persian Gulf.

The announcement appears to signal an imminent attack on Iran. It is not clear if the American action is in anticipation of an Israeli attack or an American one. Indeed, Citing five unnamed sources NBC News reported Israel was considering launching an attack on Iran within days. A senior Iranian official stated that the country had been alerted by a ‘friendly country in the region’ about a possible Israeli attack.
Negotiations between the US and Iran in Oman have been at an impasse over the issue of uranium enrichment. The removal of non-essential American personnel from the region could be intended as a signal to Iran of the seriousness of the American position in the hope of moving the Iranians closer to a deal.
In Vienna, the board of governors of the IAEA concluded this morning that Iran is in breach of its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The US, UK, France, and Germany, have introduced a motion of censure on the Iranian nuclear activity which was revealed last week. Such a censure motion, if passed, could force the implementation of so-called “snap-back” sanctions that were lifted as part of the 2015 nuclear deal signed by Iran and six major powers and grounded in a UN Security Council resolution.
Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Oren Marmorstein called on the international community to “respond decisively to Iran’s non-compliance and take measures to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.”
Regarding the possible censure vote, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi posted a message on social media on Wednesday that censure “will compel Iran to react STRONGLY.”

June 10, 2025

Crunch time approaching on US – Iran nuclear talks

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrives to the courtroom at the Distrcit court in Tel Aviv, before the start of his testimony in the trial against him, June 9, 2025. Photo by Yariv Katz/POOL ***POOL PICTURE, EDITORIAL USE ONLY/NO SALES, PLEASE CREDIT THE PHOTOGRAPHER AS WRITTEN - YARIV KATZ/POOL*** *** Local Caption *** בנימין נתניהו בית משפט ראש הממשלה נתניהו אולם דיונים בית משפט מחוזי

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump spoke on the phone yesterday for 40 minutes, as the President appraised the prime minister on the latest developments in the US talks with Iran over their nuclear programme.

According to the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office, “President Trump told the Prime Minister that the United States has presented a reasonable proposal to Iran and is expected to receive its response in the coming days.”
In Washington, President Trump said it was a “very good” call, and also revealed that Iran is involved in the ceasefire negotiations with Hamas. Speaking at the White House, President Trump said, “Gaza right now is in the midst of a massive negotiation between us and Hamas and Israel, and Iran, actually, is involved and we’ll see what’s going to happen with Gaza. We want to get the hostages back. That’s all I can tell you.”
Regarding the Iranian nuclear programme, the president said, “We are trying to do something with Iran. They are very good negotiators. They’re tough, sometimes too tough.”
Following the call, Netanyahu convened his senior ministers and heads of the security establishment for a consultation focused on Iran.
Meanwhile in Tehran, the Iranian National Security Council issued it latest threat against Israel saying, “If the Zionist regime wants to take action against our nuclear centres and facilities, it will definitely and surely face our reaction. For the counterattack, the nuclear facilities of the regime will be targeted and operated upon with advanced weaponry.”
The Iranians have also been claiming they will soon reveal, what they are describing as, “a national intelligence achievement,” which could include an expose on Israel’s alleged nuclear capacity as well as a potential database of targets inside Israel.
In Vienna yesterday, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors convened to discuss a comprehensive report published in late May that found that Iran has conducted covert nuclear activities at three sites that have been under investigation for years, using materials it had not reported to the agency.

Context: The call from Trump came as Prime Minister Netanyahu was facing cross-examination in his corruption trial.

At the same time Netanyahu is also facing a political crisis, with his ultra-Orthodox partners threatening to vote in a no-confidence motion to bring down the government over the absence of legislation to exempt ultra-Orthodox men from service in the military.
The call also coincides with suggestions that the US-Iran nuclear talks have reached a deadlock and could soon breakdown completely. The fundamental issue remains whether Iran will be allowed to enrich uranium on its own soil for what it defines as a civilian nuclear programme. The latest US proposal reportedly allows limited, low-level enrichment inside Iran for a time. The President recently stated, “They don’t want to give up what they have to give up. You know what that is: They seek enrichment….They have given us their thoughts on the deal, and I said it’s just not acceptable.”
Trump’s claim that Iran is also involved in the hostage negotiations comes as surprise, as Israel marks 613 days with 55 hostages still in captivity.
Netanyahu and his Likud allies could well be using the crisis with Iran as a further reason to maintain the governing coalition and not go for early elections at this sensitive time.
In fact, Israeli media has reported that US Ambassador Mike Huckabee has been meeting ultra-Orthodox politicians claiming that “government stability is important for addressing the Iranian issue.”
This in turn, led to Leader of the Opposition Lapid to state on X, “Since I have no doubt that Ambassador Huckabee respects Israel’s independence and its democracy, I hope and believe that the report that he is interfering in Israel’s internal politics and trying to help Netanyahu with the ultra-Orthodox in the military draft law crisis are not true. Israel is not a protectorate.”
Netanyahu’s long held position has called for the full dismantlement of the Iranian nuclear programme (the so-called Libya option), but it is understood that he has assured the US administration that Israel won’t launch an attack while negotiations are ongoing.

Latest strikes in Yemen: Following a warning last night, Israel Navy missile boats this morning attacked Houthi targets in the Hodeida port.

This follows persistent missile attacks towards Israel, but is the first time that Israel has deployed the navy rather than the Israeli Air Force to engage Houthi targets.
According to the IDF Spokesperson’s Office, “The attack was designed to entrench the damage to the military use made of the port, which was attacked by the IDF this past year and has continued to serve terrorist activity. The port that was attacked was used to transfer arms and is another example of the cynical use and exploitation of civilian infrastructure by the terrorist Houthi regime to facilitate terrorist operations. The attack was executed after numerous prior warnings by the IDF to minimise possible civilian casualties in the area.”

Looking ahead: Following the security consultation, it is anticipated that Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer and Mossad chief Barnea will once more travel to the US and meet special envoy Witkoff, who is leading the US-Iran nuclear talks (as well as the hostages portfolio).

The US and E3 countries (the UK, France and Germany) plan to submit a draft resolution to the IAEA board declaring Iran in violation of its commitments to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Such a resolution could pave the way to setting in motion the “snapback” mechanism, reinstating all UN Security Council sanctions on Iran that were lifted as part of the 2015 JCPOA.
In the Knesset, the preliminary vote to disband the government will be held tomorrow, but this will still leave time for a compromise to be reached before three further readings and votes that will dissolve the Knesset and lead to elections.
American and Iranian negotiators are due to meet for a sixth round of nuclear talks on Sunday in Oman.

June 5, 2025

Rocket fire from Syria amid nuclear tensions with Iran

What’s happened: As nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran continue, tensions between Jerusalem and Damascus have risen after two projectiles were fired from Syria.

Two rockets were launched yesterday which landed in the Golan Heights. These are the first rockets to be fired from Syria in over a year, and did not cause any damage or casualties.
The attack was claimed by two new and previously unrecognised groups: the “Islamic Resistance Front”, and “Mohammed Deif Brigade”. Neither group’s claim has been verified, but in a recording released by the Lebanese pro-Hezbollah Mayadeen outlet, a Mohammed Deif Brigade spokesman said that the fire was in response to “Israel’s massacres in Palestine, Israel’s daily attacks in Syria, and the wave of normalization between the current Syrian regime and Israel”.
Defence Minister Katz responded by saying that Israel viewed “the Syrian president directly responsible for every threat and [rocket] fire toward the State of Israel”, a “full response” would follow soon, and that Israel “will not allow a return to a pre-October 7 reality”.
In a statement of its own, the IDF said that “The Syrian regime is responsible for what is happening in Syria and will continue to bear the consequences as long as hostile activity continues from its territory”.
Israel’s response was artillery fire at the site where the rockets were fired from, and a series of air strikes destroying weapons it says belonged to the regime in southern Syria. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights subsequently reporting explosions in Quneitra and Deraa “following Israeli aerial strikes”.
Syria responded to the rocket attack and Israeli retaliation strike by insisting that it would “never be a threat” to anyone in the region.
Earlier this week, President al-Sharaa gave an unprecedented interview to the US-based Jewish Journal where he indicated his openness to positively engage with Israel, stated that the two countries “have common enemies”, and expressed a desire to use the 1974 Disengagement Agreement with Israel as a framework for future engagement.
Yesterday, America’s Ambassador to Turkey who also serves as its Syria Envoy, was sent to Israel for talks with Prime Minister Netanyahu, which are likely to focus on de-escalating the current security situation.
In other news, negotiations between the US and Iran are continuing, but appear decreasingly likely to succeed.
In his first direct comments on Witkoff’s proposals, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said that the framework “contradicts our nation’s belief in self-reliance” and runs counter to its energy independence ambitions.
In a speech, Khamenei said the proposal “contradicts our principle of power by 100%” and vowed that Iran would not agree to stop enriching uranium on its own soil, calling it “a key tool in the nuclear program.” He added that “The rude and arrogant leaders of America repeatedly demand that we should not have a nuclear programme. Who are you to decide whether Iran should have enrichment?”
Following the speech, Iran’s foreign minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, emphasised the Islamic Republic’s position, writing “no enrichment, no deal.”
Meanwhile, ABC quoted an unnamed Iranian official who that the US’ proposed terms are “unreasonable, greedy and unconventional.”
Yesterday, after speaking to Russia’s President Putin, Trump signalled Russia could be involved, and that Iran was ‘slowwalking’ its decision on enrichment. “President Putin suggested that he will participate in the discussions with Iran and that he could, perhaps, be helpful in getting this brought to a rapid conclusion,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “It is my opinion that Iran has been slowwalking their decision on this very important matter, and we will need a definitive answer in a very short period of time!”
On Monday, Trump wrote on Truth Social “Under our potential Agreement — WE WILL NOT ALLOW ANY ENRICHMENT OF URANIUM!”

Context – Syria: Since the toppling of the Baathist regime in December 2024, the new government under Ahmed al-Sharaa’s leadership has gone to significant lengths to impress its non-threatening posture on the international community, including Israel.

President al-Sharaa has directly referred to Israel by name on a consistent basis since taking office, and it is understood that Israel and Syria are now engaging in direct negotiations intended to deconflict the border region around the Golan Heights. This follows indirect negotiations brokered by Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Sharaa’s interview marks a major development in Israeli-Syrian relations where up until now, pre-1967 borders were viewed as the starting point for any potential peace negotiations.

Context – Iran: At the crux of the disagreement between the sides is the issue of Iran abandoning its nuclear enrichment, which Khamenei sees a red line. While Iran is said to be open to uranium being enriched by a consortium operating within its own borders, it is unlikely to agree to this taking place abroad as per stipulations by the US.

Earlier this week, Saudi Arabia reportedly warned Iran that by failing to reach a nuclear deal, it risked Israeli strikes and causing further regional de-escalation.
The Financial Times reported that Iran is rebuilding its air defence systems that were destroyed in October 2024’s Israeli strikes in anticipation of further attacks, specifically targeting its nuclear site. Satellite imagery indicates that S-300 air defence systems have been redeployed to critical sites including nuclear enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordo.
The official failure of talks would increases the chances of Israeli military action against Iranian nuclear sites.

Looking ahead: Mediators working to secure the release of hostages and a ceasefire in Gaza are “optimistic” that Hamas will update their proposal reflecting a somewhat softened stance.

Egyptian and Qatari mediators have continued to negotiate with Hamas, alongside US-Palestinian activist and businessman, Bishara Bahbah who acted as the main backchannel through which Edan Alexander’s release was secured last month.
Some outlets have raised the possibility that a breakthrough may occur just before the holiday of Eid begins at sunset tonight.

May 12, 2025

Dual Israeli – US soldier due to be released today

What’s happened: Hamas announced that it will release Edan Alexander, a kidnapped IDF soldier who is also an American citizen.

His release is being seen as a goodwill gesture towards US President Trump before his trip to the Gulf, and appears to be the result of direct talks between the US and Hamas.
The Alexander family issued a statement noting, “the continuous contact with the American administration regarding the possibility of Edan’s anticipated release in the coming days.”
Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office also issued a statement that the expected release, “without anything in return will be possible due to the vigorous policy that we have led with the backing of President Trump, and thanks to the military pressure of IDF soldiers in the Gaza Strip.” It added that “Israel has not committed to a ceasefire of any kind or the release of terrorists but only to a safe corridor that will allow for the release of Edan.”
Leader of the Opposition Lapid said, “Edan Alexander’s release is welcome and moving, but we must not stop there. This has to lead to a broad hostage deal that will return all the hostages home. They don’t have time. The reports about direct talks between Hamas and the United States are a disgraceful political failure of the Israeli government and the prime minister. The hostages are ours, and the responsibility for getting them back resides with the government. Our hearts are with the families.”
Adding to the criticism of the Israeli government, US envoy Witkoff told hostage families that the US “wants to return the hostages, but Israel is not ready to end the war…. Israel is prolonging the war, even though we do not see where further progress can be made.”
Witkoff also related to negotiations with Iran following the fourth round of negotiations over the weekend. Witkoff denied the US was on its way to signing a deal similar to the 2015 agreement under the Obama administration. “We’re never doing a JCPOA deal where sanctions come off and there’s no sunsetting of their obligations … They cannot have enrichment, they cannot have centrifuges, they cannot have anything that allows them to build a weapon.”
Also over the weekend, Hamas released their latest propaganda video, this one featuring Elkana Bohbot and Yosef-Haim Ohana. It served as another reminder of the awful condition the hostages are in.

Context: Ahead of President Trump’s visit to the region, there are several issues on his agenda that will have a significant impact on Israel.

Foremost are the Iranian nuclear negotiations. Despite Witkoff’s denials, Israel is concerned that the inchoate deal will allow Iran to retain some level of enrichment and will resemble the deal signed by President Obama a decade ago. There is also a fear that it will not relate to Iran’s regional role or their development of advanced missiles.
There is added concern the new agreement will not only allow Iran to retain the knowhow and means to acquire nuclear capabilities in the future, but sanctions relief will free up funds that will allow it to repair its economy and to provide meaningful support to its proxies in the region.
The second issue is the anticipated defence deal between the US and Saudi Arabia, which could challenge the longstanding US – Israel principle of Israel maintaining a qualitative military edge in the region.
As part of such a deal, there are also suggestions that the US could acquiesce to a Saudi nuclear programme. These were supposed to be components of an Israeli – Saudi normalisation agreement, but that now appears to be off the agenda.
The third major issue relates to Gaza, both in terms of securing another hostage deal and how long the US will support an intensification of the fighting.
The US’s unilateral deal over Edan Alexander could relegate the fate of the remaining hostages. It also brings into greater focus the notion that traditionally Israel would do all it could to return Israeli captives. Now the impression is that a dual passport is worth more.
Connected to this is the expected huge financial deal between US and Qatar, that brings the Qataris even closer into Trump’s orbit at Israel’s expense.
The fourth issue is the Houthis. Israel was surprised last week by the US announcement to end their strikes in Yemen, at the same time as attacks on Israel persist. Yesterday the IDF released a warning in Arabic to evacuate three sea ports in Yemen in preparation for an Israeli attack. So far, the IDF has not acted on the threat, allowing for speculation as to whether this was part of physiological warfare or if an attack remains imminent.
In a potential attempt to emphasise the government’s commitment to returning hostages and captured soldiers, the Israeli government announced that, in a special operation by the Mossad and the IDF, it had recovered the body of Sgt. First Class Tzvi Feldman, who fell in the Battle of Sultan Yacob in June 1982 during the First Lebanon War.

Looking ahead: Edan Alexander is now expected to be released this afternoon.

President Trump is due to depart this evening. His first stop will be Saudi Arabia, followed by UAE and Qatar.
There are news reports that Trump’s meeting with Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh on Tuesday is also set to include PA Chairman Abbas, Lebanese President Aoun and Syria’s de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammad al-Julani).
There are suggestions in the Israeli media that if he is physically well enough, Edan Alexander will fly with his family and Witkoff to meet Trump in Qatar.
The IDF has completed its preparations for a military operation in Gaza, which is anticipated to begin immediately after Trump leaves the region.

May 7, 2025

Israel strikes Yemen again, as Trump announces end of US offensive

What’s happened: For a second time within 24 hours the Israeli Air Force (IAF) jets struck strategic targets in Houthi-controlled Yemen.

Among the targets struck were runways, aircraft, and infrastructure at Sanaa International Airport which put it out of commission and disrupted three scheduled flights.
The IDF said that the airport was used “for transferring weapons and operatives, and is regularly operated by the Houthi regime for terror purposes.”
Prime Minister Netanyahu commented that Israeli planes “attacked the airport in Sanaa, an airport that enables the terrorist army and allows for the entry by air to the terrorist state, which enables the firing of missiles at us.”
Prior to the strike, the IDF issued an “urgent” warning to civilians to evacuate the airport area immediately.
IAF jets also hit several power stations near Sanaa and a cement factory north of the city, which the IDF said, “constitutes a blow to the regime’s economy and its military buildup.”
The strikes came in response to repeated Houthis missiles targeting Israel, one of which landed inside the perimeter of Ben Gurion Airport on Sunday.
Dozens of IAF aircraft once again took part in the operation, including fighter jets, refuelers and intelligence gathering planes. The IDF said the fighter jets dropped 50 munitions on the targets.
This morning the IDF said they shot down a UAV launched from Yemen, before it entered Israeli airspace. As such no sirens were sounded.

Trump announcement: In a move that surprised Israel officials, President Trump declared that the US is ending its (almost) two month bombing campaign targeting the Houthis.

Trump said the Houthis approached the administration on Monday night indicating “they want to stop the fighting.”
Trump added, “It’s not a deal….They said, ‘Please don’t bomb us anymore and we’re not going to attack your ships.’”
The Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi confirmed on X that his country mediated talks between the Houthis and the US, adding “in the future, neither side will target the other, including American vessels, in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait, ensuring freedom of navigation and the smooth flow of international commercial shipping.”

For context on the strikes on Yemen – see yesterday’s briefing

Context: Trump’s announcement was the second time in recent weeks that he surprised Israel officials, after he announced that the US would hold talks with Iran while Prime Minister Netanyahu was sat next to him in the White House.

Israeli officials were initially disappointed by the announcement. Despite the US attacks, the Houthis still maintain capacity to launch missiles and drones.
However the initial assessment in Jerusalem is that Trump’s announcement would not affect Israel nor restrict its freedom of action against the Houthis.
Earlier this week, the Israeli security cabinet approved Operation Gideon’s Chariots, which involves intensifying the military activity in Gaza. It is only expected to begin after Trump’s visit, and only if no hostage deal can be reached.
President Trump said last night that only 21 hostages in Gaza are still alive. The Hostage and Missing Families Forum issued a statement this morning saying that the number of living hostages, as they had been officially informed, was 24. The forum added that if there was any new information that they have not been given, they wanted to receive it immediately. It echoed a comment made last week by the Prime Minister’s wife Sara that there were fewer than 24 hostages still alive.
Ahead of Trump’s arrival, mediators have reportedly increased the pressure on Hamas in an effort to reach a new hostage deal.
The US are apparently encouraging Hamas’s two biggest supporters – Turkey and Qatar to reduce their support for Hamas, and to induce them to compromise.
In addition, Hamas claims that Egypt has begun to pressure it to agree to dismantle its military wing.

Looking ahead: It is anticipated that the Houthis will continue to try and attack Israel. President of the Houthis Supreme Political Council, Mahdi al-Mashat, warned in response, “To all Zionists, from now on, stay in shelters or leave to your homelands immediately, for your failed government will no longer be able to protect you.”

Relating to the strikes in Yemen, Defence Minister Katz said that this also constituted a “warning to the head of the Iranian octopus: You bear direct responsibility for the attack by the Houthi tentacle against the State of Israel, and you will also be held accountable for the results.”
Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer is in Washington and is expected to meet US officials in the White House today and coordinate positions ahead of Trump’s visit to the region next week.
At present Trump is not scheduled to stop in Israel during his visit, but there are several weighty issues that do affect Israel, including the talks with Iran, hopes for another hostage deal and a potential defence agreement between US and Saudi Arabia.

Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Hezbollah and Lebanon