Israel, the UK and the world

Updated December 12, 2024

US optimistic for ceasefire in Lebanon

What happened: White House senior advisor Amos Hochstein has met several Lebanese officials to try and advance a ceasefire agreement.

After meeting with Shia Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who is considered the interlocutor between the Lebanese government and Hezbollah, Hochstein said he felt there was a “real opportunity to bring this conflict to an end… It is now within our grasp.” He added that he hoped the coming days would yield a “resolute decision.”
Hochstein also met with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and the Commander of the Lebanese Army Joseph Aoun.
Berri said negotiations were going “good in principle” and that “only a few more technical details remain to be concluded.”
An Israeli official made clear that while Israel was preparing to implement the deal and to withdraw forces, “We will increase the firepower as long as there is no official signature on the agreement.”
Hezbollah continues to fire missiles and drones towards Israel with sirens sounding in Kiryat Shmona, Manara, and areas in the Western Galilee this morning. An IDF reservist, Omer Moshe Gaeldor (30), was killed and three others were seriously wounded in a Hezbollah drone attack in southern Lebanon.
UNIFIL said peacekeepers and facilities had been targeted in three separate incidents on Tuesday, and that four Ghanaian peacekeepers were wounded when a rocket hit their base in southern Lebanon. UNIFIL mentioned it was fired by ‘non state actors’, while the IDF explicitly named Hezbollah, saying they had fired the rockets from the areas of Maaliyeh and Deir Aames in southern Lebanon.
In response to the attack, Argentina announced it was pulling its troops from a peacekeeping force.
On Monday, the IAF struck and eliminated Hezbollah operative Ali Tawfiq Dweiq, the commander of Hezbollah’s medium-range rocket array. Dweiq commanded the medium-range rocket array since September 2024, and was responsible for the launch of over 300 projectiles toward Israel, including towards Haifa and central Israel.
The IDF has also begun conducting targeted raids against a central Hezbollah stronghold in southern Lebanon. In coordination with the IAF, the troops struck dozens of targets in the stronghold that were used to fire rockets into Israel as well as command centres, weapons storage facilities, and observation posts.
The Wall Street Journal reported that, as the IDF continues to advance in southern Lebanon, it has found large troves of Russian weapons, including some manufactured as recently as 2020. “The [Russian-made] weapons Israel is finding now are newer, more advanced, and present in larger numbers than expected by military analysts,” the report notes.

Context: In parallel to the diplomatic process both Israel and Hezbollah are looking for final military gains ahead of any ceasefire.

Although the Americans are confident that a deal can be concluded, Israel is keen for the US to add more diplomatic pressure on the Lebanese to improve the terms of the deal. With limited diplomatic leverage, Israel is using its military clout to add pressure on Hezbollah to end the fighting.
Part of this pressure includes advances to the ‘second row’ of villages in the south, as well as strikes on Hezbollah assets in Beirut and elsewhere.
Despite the US optimism, several issues remain unresolved:
- The most important issue for Israel is to retain freedom of action to thwart any attempts by Hezbollah to violate the agreement, both in terms of returning fighters in close proximity to the Israeli border and Hezbollah efforts to rearm and rebuild their military capacity. This is likely to come in the form of separate document from the US president offering those guarantees. The Lebanese say that such a letter is unnecessary.
- The extent to which Israel will be able to independently monitor Hezbollah activities through overflights and other technology.
- The augmentation and upgrading of UNIFIL. Israel is keen to see more peacekeepers from European states whilst Lebanon prefers Arab forces.
- Clarification of the division and distinction of roles for both UNIFIL and the LAF operating south of the Litani River.
- The composition of the international monitoring mechanism. Prior to the war, there was a trilateral forum consisting of the IDF, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and UNIFIL. The new proposal is for there to be a four way committee. This would be chaired (crucially from Israel’s perspective) by a US official (possibly CENTCOM commander), and also include France, the UN and (an as yet unnamed) Arab country. Israel was keen for the UK and Germany to play a role, but that currently seems less likely.
- Confirmation of the process for when Israel reports a violation and the protocol of the oversight committee encouraging LAF or UNIFIL to deal with the issue before the IDF would respond.
- An agreed-upon mechanism for dealing with other disputes, primarily, the ‘Blue Line’ border markings, on which Israel reached agreement with the UN in 2000, but which Hezbollah do not accept and have used as a pretext for continued hostilities.
- Whether the limits on Hezbollah’s presence can – in some places – extend to areas north of the Litani River in areas where, due to the line of the river (relative to the border), there are areas in the Upper Galilee that could still face direct threats from anti-tank missiles.
As part of the ceasefire, Israel may also be seeking some commitment from Iran to restrain their proxies from attacking Israel from Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
Once the principles of a ceasefire are agreed, some of these issues will be resolved during the initial 60 days of the ceasefire, after which the IDF will then redeploy to the Israeli border.

Looking ahead: US envoy Hochstein is expected to remain in Lebanon today and try and resolve some of the outstanding issues.

If there is sufficient progress, Hochstein is then expected to travel to Israel to update the Israeli government on the prospects and timetable for the deal.
Once a ceasefire is agreed,’the repairs and reconstruction of the northern communities can begin – before the eventual return of the residents. This will also allow Lebanese citizens to return home and similarly rebuild.
Israel will then also expedite the building of a new barrier along the border, along with a more substantial redeployment of troops.

November 12, 2024

Minister Dermer meets with Trump and Biden officials

Israel-US: Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer met with US President-elect Trump. The meeting aimed to pass along messages regarding Israel’s plans for Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran over the next two months.

Dermer also met with US Secretary of State Blinken, National Security Adviser Sullivan, White House Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa McGurk, and special envoy for Lebanon Hochstein.
Context: Israel is standing at a multilayered crossroads, as Minister Dermer’s trip illustrates, Israel needs to remain coordinated with the Biden administration, whilst preparing for Trump across a range of fronts and issues.
Dermer’s meetings with US officials discussed the Wednesday deadline set by the Biden administration to dramatically improve the humanitarian crisis in Gaza at the risk of a partial arms embargo. They also discussed efforts to secure ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon.
On October 13, The Biden administration sent a letter to the Israeli government demanding it act to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza within the next 30 days or risk violating US laws governing foreign military assistance.
White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said that the letter was not intended as a threat, but “was simply meant to reiterate the sense of urgency we feel and the seriousness with which we feel it, about the need for an increase, a dramatic increase in humanitarian assistance.”
The letter also says that failure to demonstrate a sustained commitment to implementing and maintaining these measures may have implications for US policy under NSM-20 and relevant US law.” This refers to a memorandum issued by the White House National Security Council, which allows for ‘appropriate next steps’ if a country receiving US military aid is deemed by the State Department or the Pentagon not to be meeting prior assurances of allowing the delivery of humanitarian assistance.
Dermer was expected to present Secretary of State Blinken with a letter that details all the measures Israel has taken to increase the humanitarian aid across Gaza, especially in the northern part. The letter is thought to include a breakdown of the new border crossings that have been opened, the expansion of humanitarian zones and the increased volume of aid.
Israel claims that whereas it has worked to meet the pace of aid demanded by the Biden administration, UN aid organisations have failed to deliver the goods. While Israel has been unable to meet an American demand for 350 aid trucks daily to be transferred into Gaza, it has dramatically increased numbers since the American ultimatum letter was sent, and 250 trucks now crossing into Gaza each day.
The IDF announced that since the beginning of last month, more than 700 aid trucks have entered northern Gaza through the Erez West crossing. However, a significant challenge remains in the collection and distribution of this aid, there are approximately 700 trucks worth of aid waiting for collection by international organisations on the Gazan side of the various crossings.
The Biden administration is also reportedly considering harsh moves against Israel during the transition period, including tighter restrictions on arms supplies and a possible failure to veto anti-Israel resolutions at the UN Security Council.
Senior security officials reportedly criticised Katz for his comments over the weekend that Israel had defeated Hezbollah. They argued that his ‘declaration of victory’ and statements about Israeli freedom of action caused the other side to climb out on a high tree, adding “It would be best first to finalise an agreement and then to sell it to the public, and not the other way around.”
Looking ahead: US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein is expected to return to the region in order to advance an agreement to end the war with Hezbollah. He will travel first to Lebanon, after which he will see whether he has anything he can take to Israel.
Israel has demanded that the new agreement include clear terms, including IDF freedom to act in response to threats. Ultimately, that might not be a formal part of the agreement, and might only be an annex.

November 7, 2024

PM Starmer discusses Middle East with President-elect Trump

PM Starmer raised the Middle East in a call with President-elect Trump on Wednesday night.

According to a No 10 spokesperson Starmer: “reflected on the situation in the Middle East and underscored the importance of regional stability” in their first phone call since Donald Trump was elected on Tuesday.

November 7, 2024

Israeli leaders congratulate Trump

Congratulations: Even prior to the formal announcement of the President-elect’s victory, Prime Minister Netanyahu sent a congratulatory message, saying that Trump’s “historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America.”

Last night, Trump and Netanyahu spoke over the phone. The two leaders agreed to work together for Israel’s security and discussed the Iranian threat.
Leader of the Opposition Lapid congratulated Trump on X writing, “You have shown yourself time and again to be a true friend of Israel. I know that with your leadership we will continue to strengthen and deepen the unique bond that exists between our two countries and expand the circle of peace in the Middle East. These are challenging times for Israel but with the ironclad support of the United States and strong leadership we can overcome them all. For the people of Israel there is no task more urgent than bringing our hostages home from Gaza.”
President Herzog said, “You are a true and dear friend of Israel, and a champion of peace and cooperation in our region. I look forward to working with you to strengthen the ironclad bond between our peoples, to build a future of peace and security for the Middle East, and to uphold our shared values.”
National Unity Party leader MK Benny Gantz, noted Trump’s past achievements and added, “Against the backdrop of emboldened Iranian aggression in this region, its race to nuclear capabilities, and the paramount efforts to return the hostages home, President Trump’s leadership will not only ensure the US continues to be a special friend and ally to the State of Israel but a vital beacon of moral clarity to the Middle East and the world.”
Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas also congratulated Trump on his victory, expressing confidence he will support Palestinian’s aspirations for statehood.

Trump’s recent comments: President Elect Trump has consistently claimed to be a great friend of Israel.

On September 5^th he posted on his social media Truth 4.83 million followers that (in caps) “NO PRESIDENT HAS DEFENDED ISRAEL AND JEWISH AMERICANS MORE THAN DONALD J. TRUMP.”
In a short clip summarising his achievements, Trump mentioned:
- Declaring Jerusalem as the true capital of Israel;
- The US leaving the JCPOA nuclear accords with Iran;
- Imposing sanctions on Iran aimed at curbing their nuclear ambitions;
- Brokering and signing of the Abraham Accords.
At the same time, foreign policy including the Middle East is not a leading issue in American politics and the official 2024 Republican Party Platform says little about the region aside from “standing with Israel” and “restoring peace in the Middle East.”
Speaking at the Republican Jewish Coalition on September 5^th, Trump asserted that the Biden-Harris administration “sought to cast blame for these [Palestinian] deaths on Israel,” and that “the October 7^th attack on Israel would never have happened if he was President”. That sentiment was repeated during his September 10^th presidential debate against Harris.
In July 2024, Trump reportedly told Netanyahu “do what you have to do” and “finish up the war” but warned Netanyahu that Israel’s public relations have taken a hit due to the graphic videos of death and destruction that have come out of Gaza.

Israeli media initial assessments: Writing in Yediot Ahronot, Ron Ben Yishai recommends caution about the Trump administration. He highlights the fact that Trump’s son in law Jared Kushner will not be joining Trump in the White House, adding that that should concern Israel.

Israeli officials say that Netanyahu has been asked to leave Trump with a “clean” slate before he enters the Oval Office. To accomplish that, Netanyahu is going to have to learn how to make decisions at “Trump” speed, instead of continuing to juggle balls in the air.
On Channel 12 News, Ofer Hadad argues that while Biden or the Democratic Party didn’t like to break the rules, Trump doesn’t have any rules. For example, if Trump decides to stop the war or take any other step as part of his foreign policy, he will run over anyone who stands in his way, including Israel.
In an interview to Maariv today, Dr. Shay Har-Zvi from Reichman University, says that despite Trump’s policy of ‘America First’, the US would not be able to disengage from the Middle East and Israel could be under pressure to bring the war to an end.
He explains that Trump wishes that the war in the Middle East would come to an end before he enters the White House on January 20^th. In his victory speech Trump declared that he doesn’t wish to start wars. His main motivation is to focus on the significant challenge of the US in the international arena, as far as he concerned – the Chinese threat on the US dominancy and economy.
Har- Zvi emphasises the three main targets on Trump’s likely Middle East agenda: ending the war in Gaza and Lebanon which will secure the return of the hostages, advancing normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia, and dealing with Iran’s nuclear threat. To enhance the normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia, Netanyahu will have to show that he is willing to give the Palestinian diplomatic horizon.
Relating to Iran, Iranian expert Beni Sabti told Maariv that Trump will not continue working on Iran nuclear deal as it is now. The new administration might present new demands in three areas: the level of uranium enrichment, inspection on nuclear facilities and limitations on Iran’s nuclear programme.
Meanwhile Iranian government spokesperson, Fatemeh Mohajerani, said that the result would have little impact on Iran as “more than five decades of sanctions have toughened Iran.”
Maariv reports that Saudi Arabia has proposed opening an Israeli liaison office in Riyadh. The proposal was presented on the heels of the Euro-Muslim conference that was recently held to discuss the issue with the formal purpose of the office to coordinate the establishment of a Palestinian state.

November 6, 2024

Netanyahu congratulates Trump on election

PM Netanyahu posted on X: “Dear Donald and Melania Trump, Congratulations on history’s greatest comeback! Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America. This is a huge victory! In true friendship, yours, Benjamin and Sara Netanyahu”

October 31, 2024

Herzog meets British hostage mother

President Herzog: Amanda Damari, mother of Emily, who was abducted and taken hostage from the youth neighborhood in Kibbutz Kfar Aza, told me in our meeting about her daughter, a truly remarkable young woman; strong, intelligent, with a love for life, and loved by all who know her. Emily, who holds British citizenship, has been brutally held by Hamas terrorists for over a year. We must continue to do everything to bring her back to her family, along with all our loved ones held hostage.

October 27, 2024

Blinken in Israel

Blinken visit: US Secretary of State Blinken was in Israel on Tuesday. He met with Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defence Minister Gantz, President Herzog and families of hostages held in Gaza.

His meeting in Jerusalem with Netanyahu lasted for around two and a half hours, including a one-on-one meeting and a broader conversation with their respective teams. Netanyahu’s office described the meeting as “friendly and productive.”
For Israel the top agenda item remains the ongoing Iranian threat: “The prime minister thanked the American secretary of state for the support of the US in the fight against Iran’s axis of evil and terrorism.”
Regarding Lebanon, Prime Minister Netanyahu highlighted the “need to effect a security and diplomatic change in the north that will enable Israel to return its residents safely to their homes.”
Also yesterday, Hezbollah formally took responsibility for the drone strike on Netanyahu’s home in Caesarea last weekend.
According to the Prime Minister’s Office, “The American Secretary of State expressed the US’s deep shock over the Iranian attempt, via Hezbollah, to eliminate the Prime Minister of Israel, and made it clear that this was an exceptionally extreme incident. The Prime Minister thanked the Secretary of State and said that this is a dramatically significant issue that must not be ignored.”
The pair also discussed the ongoing fighting in Gaza, efforts to reach a hostage deal as the “two sides discussed the issue of the governing framework in Gaza on the day after the war.”
According to the State Department, Blinken spoke of the, “importance of charting a new path forward in the post-conflict period that allows Palestinians to rebuild their lives and provides governance, security, and reconstruction for Gaza. The Secretary emphasised the need for Israel to take additional steps to increase and sustain the flow of humanitarian assistance into Gaza and ensure that assistance reaches civilians throughout Gaza.”
Once more, “The Secretary reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to Israel’s security.”
Later in Tel Aviv, Blinken met with representatives of the seven families of hostages that remain in Gaza with dual US citizenship. According to the families they asked him to, “Apply more pressure on the mediating countries, especially Qatar, to restart negotiations and leverage Sinwar’s elimination into a deal for releasing all hostages.”

Context: This was Blinken’s 11th visit To Israel since the war began and a further example that despite disagreements, the two allies remain closely coordinated on all the major issues on the security and diplomatic agenda.

Regarding the Iran threat, Israeli leaders thanked Secretary Blinken for his support – in particular the deployment of US THAAD missile defence system recently installed in Israel for the first time.
In his meeting with President Herzog, Herzog stressed the northern arena where, “we’ve been constantly attacked for a year already, and definitely in the last few weeks, constantly attacked from Lebanon”, is “why we have to take all the steps possible to eradicate the capabilities of Hezbollah, to move forward in preventing the onslaught against the citizens of Israel, and the cities and towns, their attacks with drones, missiles, rockets, their attack on the private home of the Prime Minister – it’s all part of a major campaign which, at the end of it all is led and commanded in Tehran. And that is why, of course, a major answer has to be made towards Tehran.”
On Gaza, the US sees a new window of opportunity following the death of Hamas leader Sinwar to pursue a hostage deal.
In tandem, the US are keen to increase humanitarian aid to assist the civilian population of Gaza.
As part of this effort (and partly in response to the joint letter last week from Secretaries Blinken and Austin), Israel has facilitated the entrance of 237 humanitarian aid trucks into northern Gaza in last 9 days.
The decision was apparently criticised by head of the Shin Bet who argued aid should be kept at a level consistent with international law but not beyond that. The concession for increasing aid should be part of the levers used to induce a hostage deal.
There is also ongoing concern that Hamas is still able to take over the aid, syphoning it off to their fighters at the expense of the general population.
Another important component of the conversations are ongoing diplomatic efforts, along with regional Arab allies, for a plan for future governance of the Gaza Strip. Although details have not been released, part of Blinken’s plan is place Gaza under the authority of a temporary caretaker – an international mission. Their role would be to deliver humanitarian aid, establish law and order, and lay the groundwork for future governance.

October 18, 2024

PM Starmer – UK ‘will not mourn death of Sinwar’

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has said that the UK would not mourn the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.

In a statement he said that: “As the leader of the terrorist group Hamas, Yahya Sinwar was the mastermind behind the deadliest day in Jewish history since the Holocaust, as 1200 people were slaughtered in Israel.”

The Prime Minister went on to say that his “thoughts are with the families of those victims. The UK will not mourn his death.” PM Starmer then repeated calls for the “release of all hostages, an immediate ceasefire and an increase in humanitarian aid are long overdue so we can move towards a long-term, sustainable peace in the Middle East.”

April 21, 2023

Israel deepens ties with two of Iran’s neighbours

Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen visited both Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan this week, in a move to deepen Israel’s growing ties with the Caucasus and Central Asian regions.

Cohen went first to Azerbaijan, where he was accompanied by 20 representatives of the Israeli cyber, defence, homeland security, water management, and agriculture sectors. The delegation met with representatives of both the private and governmental Azeri sectors.
Discussions were also held on connecting Israel’s natural gas deposits to Azerbaijan’s pipeline, increasing the potential for delivery of Israeli gas to Europe.
Azeri officials told Cohen of the country’s desire to expand Israeli imports to include the cyber and solar energy fields. Agreements were also reached which will see the two countries cooperate on space exploration.
After their meeting, Cohen thanked President Ilham Aliyev for the opening of the Azeri embassy in Tel Aviv last month and confirmed that they had discussed “our shared strategic regional challenges, especially regional security and the fight against terrorism.”
Cohen then proceeded to Turkmenistan, becoming the first Israeli Foreign Minister to visit the Central Asian state in 29 years.
Yesterday Cohen formally opened Israel’s first permanent embassy in the capital of Ashgabat, also meeting with President Serdar Berdimuhamedow.
According to the Foreign Ministry, they also discussed expanding cooperation in cyber-tech, agriculture, and water technology.
“Turkmenistan is an extremely important country in Central Asia and an energy powerhouse in a strategic location,” said Cohen. “The opening of our permanent embassy today strengthens the relationship between the two countries.”

Context: Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are of high strategic importance, both for their location and energy resources.

Israeli-Azeri ties have been deepening for some years, Cohen’s visit following the trip made by then Defence Minister Benny Gantz last October.
Azerbaijan has become more publicly open about its ties with Israel in recent years, breaking a tradition of opacity based on a reluctance to antagonise its Iranian neighbour.
In opening its Tel Aviv embassy, and recently appointing its first permanent ambassador, it became the first majority Shiite Muslim state to do so.
Commercial ties between the two countries are mutually significant. Israel imports 30% of its oil from Azerbaijan, while Israel provided 69% of Baku’s major arms imports from 2016-2020: 17% of Israel’s arms exports over the period.
Israel also provided valuable support to the Azeris during the 2020 Second Nagorno-Karabakh War with Armenia, after which Azeri-Iranian tensions increased, with Tehran carrying out provocative military exercises on the Azeri border.
Multiple reports have suggested that the Azeris grant Israel use of its territory for the launching of reconnaissance missions into Iran, and that any future Israeli strike on the Iranian nuclear programme could benefit from a similar Azeri base.
Israel has operated a temporary embassy facility in Turkmenistan for the past ten years.
“This is a visit to the lion’s maw, a country that is between Russia and Iran, and everything that that implies,” said one member of Cohen’s diplomatic party.
Moscow’s influence in Central Asia, which continued to be considerable even following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, has shown signs of decreasing in the last year to eighteen months.
None of the Republics have backed its invasion of Ukraine and all have complied with sanctions on the Putin government.
Turkey, with whom Israel has a complex relationship, is another key regional player, enjoying close linguistic-cultural and political ties with the Central Asian states, coordinating relations through the five-member Organization of Turkic States.
With Europe eager to divest from Russian energy, Turkey is also seen as a key gateway to supplying the continent with both oil and natural gas from alternative sources, including both Israel and Central Asian and Caucus states like Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Any advances to access to the gas pipeline must go through Turkey.
Israel’s desire to supply Europe has been hampered by technical and diplomatic hurdles since the discovery of Israeli gas fields in the Mediterranean
Israel and Turkmenistan established diplomatic relations 30 years ago, and the new embassy is now Israel’s third in Central Asia, joining those in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
The opening of a permanent embassy in Ashgabat is of symbolic importance. Located a mere 15 kilometres from the Iranian border, the new embassy becomes Israel’s closest diplomatic mission to the Islamic Republic.
Notably, ambassadors from other states united by concern over Iran, such as the United Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan and the US, were present at the embassy opening.
Although ties remain stronger with Tehran than they do in Azerbaijan, the last few years have seen Turkmenistan pivot more towards Iran’s rivals in the Gulf States, with several of whom Israel enjoys increasingly close relations.
Turkmenistan is a virtually closed state, regarded by human rights observers as a repressive dictatorship and notable for widescale abuses and corruption.
Like the other Central Asian states, it continues to face the effects of Islamist terror, with a number of its citizens joining both al-Qaeda and Islamic State in recent years.
The return of the Taliban to neighbouring Afghanistan has only heightened concerns about the Jihadi influence, and in December 2022 Israel hosted a delegation from the Central Asian states to share knowledge on border and cyber security.

Looking ahead: In a sign of the high value placed on the Azeri relationship, Israeli President Isaac Herzog is likely to visit Azerbaijan by the end of May, with the Azeri Foreign Minister also likely to make a return visit to Israel soon.

Berdimuhamedov indicated that he was considering following Azerbaijan in ordering the opening of a Turkmenistan embassy in Israel soon.

March 31, 2023

Syria blames Israel for second night of airstrikes

Syrian officials claim that Israeli aircraft attacked a military position just outside Damascus last night.
According to the Syrian military, they responded with anti-aircraft fire that intercepted some of the missiles, fired from the area of the Golan Heights just after midnight.
This is the second night in a row in which there was an attack in the Damascus area.
According to the UK based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the strikes targeted an arms depots for government forces and Iran-backed groups just south of Damascus.
According to Syrian opposition sources, last night’s attack first targeted a radar station and an air defence system in the Damascus area, before striking a “moving target” that was part of a convoy that was travelling towards the “security complex” in Kafr Sousa.
The Syrian foreign ministry condemned the attack and claimed this was Israel’s “attempt to escape internal fragmentation.”

According to Syrian sources this was the sixth Israeli strike on Syria this month.

As usual, Israel has not commented on these attacks. Israel does not formally claim every alleged strike but has acknowledged in the past that it carried out hundreds of strikes on military targets over the last few years in Syria.
On March 22, an Israeli strike targeted the airport in Aleppo, thought to have been used by Iran for storing weapons.
In response Iranian backed militias fired rockets at a base hosting US forces in northeast Syria, killing one American contractor. The US responded with air strikes on installations in eastern Syria that it said were affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The Kafr Sousa security complex was also targeted last month. It is considered an Iranian hub that serves as an Iranian barracks and headquarters.
In December 2022, then IDF Chief of Staff Kochavi revealed details of an Israeli strike on a specific truck in a convoy that was smuggling weapons and was targeted near the Iraq-Syria border.

Broader context: These strikes are the latest example of Israel’s continued doctrine of the ‘campaign between the wars’ aimed at thwarting Iranian weapons transfers and the entrenchment of pro-Iranian militias in Syria.

These operations are usually approved by the defence minister, who currently continues to serve under a cloud of ambiguity. Defence Minister Gallant was fired by Prime Minister Netanyahu at the beginning of the week, however was never sent a formal dismissal letter in writing, so continues to serve. There are suggestions that he will apologise to the prime minister for calling for a halt on the judicial reform at a time when the prime minister was abroad, and will then have his dismissal revoked.
Gallant, a former Maj. Gen., enjoys the support not only of the senior military commanders, but was also regarded as a trusted figure by the US administration.
The continued Israeli air force operations over the skies of Syria further highlight the crucial role of pilots, amid some of their vocal concerns over judicial reform.
Israel–US ties have been in focus the last couple of days following comments by President Biden who expressed his displeasure at the proposed judicial reforms.
Nevertheless, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen spoke on the phone last night. Among the issues discussed was the Iranian threat.
Blinken also “reiterated the continued US commitment to a two-state solution, welcomed recent efforts to de-escalate tensions between Israelis and Palestinians through meetings in Aqaba and Sharm el-Sheikh.”

Israeli targeting of Iranian assets in Syria is likely to continue, according to military intelligence’s risk assessment.

Today is the second Friday of Ramadan, which has so far been relatively quiet, but Israeli security forces remain on high alert over warnings of potential attacks.

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