What’s happening: Following a Security Cabinet meeting last night, Israel has sent a negotiating team to Doha. 

• The delegation is being led by ‘M’ from the Shin Bet, along with Coordinator for the Captives and Missing Brig. Gen. (ret) Gal Hirsch, Dr. Ophir Falk, the prime minister’s diplomatic adviser, and other security officials.   
• Amid the current deadlock in talks, Israel’s Energy Minister Eli Cohen announced that Israel was cutting off the electricity supply in a bid to force Hamas to release hostages. Cohen said, “We will use all the tools at our disposal to bring back the hostages and ensure that Hamas is no longer in Gaza the day after.” 
• Over the weekend Trump’s envoy for hostage affairs, Adam Boehler, gave a series of interviews to both Israel and US media, where he confirmed he had been in direct talks with Hamas, in parallel to the indirect negotiations mediated by Qatar and Egypt. 
• It is thought Boehler had initially focused on releasing the remaining hostages with dual US citizenship (Edan Alexander, along with the bodies of four US hostages). However, Boehler stressed that the talks were meant to lead to a wider deal for all the hostages.
• Aware of Israeli concerns, Boehler confirmed he discussed it with Minister Dermer. He told CNN, “I understand the consternation and the concern. I wasn’t upset. At the same time, we’re the United States. We’re not an agent of Israel. We have specific interests at play. We did communicate back and forth. We had very specific parameters.”
• Later, Boehler told Kan News, “My actions were coordinated with Israel, even though maybe there were some that said they weren’t. My job isn’t to move Israel aside, Israel is a major ally.” 
• Boehler also said that “some progress” had been made in the talks. He said that Hamas had proposed “a ceasefire that would last between five and ten years in which Hamas would lay down its arms and would not initiate any military action and would not take part in any political activity. I thought that this was an opening proposal that was not at all bad.” 
• Boehler later commented on X: “Hamas is a terrorist organization that has murdered thousands of innocent people. They are BY DEFINITION BAD people.”

Context: The revelation that the US has been in direct talks with Hamas is unprecedented and has shocked as Israeli officials, with its main interlocutor, Minister Dermer, incredulous.  

• Hamas was designated a terrorist organisation by the US in 1997, following its campaign of suicide bus bombings in the mid-90s aimed at disrupting the peace process. 
• Since 2005 the consensus approach of the international community has been to have no direct contact with Hamas until it abides by the three criteria laid out by the Tony Blair‘s led Quartet:
  • Disavow violence. 
  • Recognise Israel’s right to exist.
  • Respect previously signed agreements between Israel and the Palestinians. 
• Boehler’s latest interviews confirm that he was not acting along, but in full coordination with Witkoff and the White House. 
• Writing in Yediot Ahronot, Itamar Eichner suggests, “It seems that neither Dermer nor Netanyahu understood whom they are dealing with. Trump has a plan, and that is to win a Nobel Prize. In another month and a half, he plans to visit Saudi Arabia, and he needs to resolve the hostage issue by that point. The Nobel Prize is so important to the American president that if he reaches the conclusion that Netanyahu is an obstacle, he will do a Zelensky on him. Trump isn’t there yet, for now.”
• With the Israeli delegation returning to Doha, it is not clear which deal they are negotiating.
  • The Boehler plan is focused on the release of ten living hostages, (almost half of all the living hostages) in exchange for a 60-day ceasefire and the renewed flow of humanitarian aid. 
  • Similarly, the Witkoff plan calls for the ceasefire to be extended for the duration of Ramadan and Passover. Half of the hostages (living and dead) are to be released on the first day of the agreement. The other half are to be released as a single group on the last day. 
  • Israel has consented to the Witkoff plan but it also open to an extension of the first stage along similar formulation as before. 
  • Or the original plan of stage two, which would include Hamas demilitarising and leaving Gaza (an Israeli demand), a comprehensive hostage-prisoner exchange, as well as a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, the reopening of border crossings, and a permanent ceasefire (a Hamas demand). 
• One of the ideas that came up in Boehler’s interview was the concept of a “Hudna” that would last between five and ten years in exchange for the release of all the prisoners. This sparked grave concern for Israelis that understand Hamas’s meaning of this term as a temporary refrain until they are strong enough to carry out their next attack.    
• Even without a Hudna, the IDF has detected signs that Hamas is already preparing for a resumption of fighting, placing explosives and planning ambushes. 
• Whilst negotiations fail to produce a breakthrough, Hamas is essentially getting a ceasefire with no cost, hence the Israeli decision to stop the aid and electricity as a means to pressure Hamas into releasing more hostages. Israeli officials are also threatening to disconnect the water pipes into Gaza. 
• According to the latest assessment, Hamas is still holding 59 hostages, 24 of whom are believed to be alive and at least 35 of whom have been killed, for 521 days. 

Looking ahead: Witkoff, the president’s envoy, is expected to arrive in Doha tomorrow and join the negotiations.

• If there is no progress Israel will consider placing further restrictions on Gaza in an effort to assert more pressure on Hamas. 
• The political leadership has instructed the IDF to prepare for a resumption of fighting. However the prevailing assessment is that Israel will give the mediators more time to reach an agreement.

What’s happened: President Trump hosted released Israeli hostages in the Oval Office yesterday. 

• One of the hostages at the meeting was Eli Sharabi, whose hour-long interview on Israeli TV last week shocked the Israeli public with his descriptions of Hamas brutality. Trump posed for a picture with Sharabi, still thin and emaciated more than a month after his release, while holding a cartoon explicitly comparing the released Israeli hostages to concentration camp survivors.
• After the meeting with the released Israeli hostages, President Trump took to his social media platform to issue a stark warning to Hamas. “Release all of the Hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered, or it is OVER for you,” he wrote. “This is your last warning! For the leadership, now is the time to leave Gaza, while you still have a chance.” 
• Secretary of State Rubio added hours later in an interview on Fox News that Trump had lost his patience with Hamas, and was particularly incensed by the hostage release “ceremonies” and the mix-up with the body of murdered hostage Shiri Bibas.
• Israeli Foreign Minister Gidon Saar and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy spoke by telephone yesterday about the situation in Gaza. The UK objects to Israel’s suspension of aid deliveries to Gaza, and it issued a joint statement with France and Germany to that effect. 
• Saar reiterated Israel’s acceptance of the proposal by American special envoy Steve Witkoff to extend the first phase of the ceasefire through the Ramadan and Passover holidays in exchange for more hostage releases. In a tweet after the call, Saar added that “during the 42-day phase one, 25,000 aid trucks entered Gaza – half of Hamas’ budget in Gaza comes from these trucks! Hamas is restoring its military capabilities and recruiting new, young terrorists. This cannot continue!”
• Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office had declared that that if Hamas were to change its mind, Israel would immediately commence negotiations about all the details.

Context: The first phase of the ceasefire agreement, scheduled to last 42 days, has come to an end. The deadline for a negotiated agreement for the second phase has come and passed. The status of the ceasefire is, as of now, indeterminate.

• Several Arab states have endorsed the Egyptian’s plan as a “counterproposal” to President Trump’s plan for Gaza. 
• The most important part of the plan is the $53 billion Egyptian proposal to rebuild Gaza without moving its inhabitants out of the Strip. This is in contrast to Trump’s idea to resettle Gaza’s population elsewhere.
• The Arab plan calls for Gaza to be governed temporarily by a committee of technocrats not affiliated with Hamas, and for it eventually to be merged with the Palestinian Authority. 
• Israel primarily objects to the plans ambiguity on Hamas disarmament. The Arab plan calls for Hamas to be left out of governance, but doesn’t fully rule out that Hamas could keep its weapons and still influence Gaza politics in a manner reminiscent of Hezbollah in Lebanon in the last 25 years. Israel insists on a full decommissioning of Hamas weapons.
• Israeli officials have cautiously supported Trump’s plan but emphasised any resettlement must be voluntary.
• The Arab plan doesn’t demand immediate Palestinian statehood, but it does insist on some kind of long-term plan for a single Palestinian state encompassing the West Bank and Gaza. 
• While the Trump administration has repeatedly signalled that it is open to compromises on the President’s Gaza plan, it criticised the Arab plan’s insistence on keeping all Gazans inside the Strip even during reconstruction as unrealistic, saying the Arab plan “does not address the reality that Gaza is currently uninhabitable.”
• The Egyptian reconstruction plan would depend in funding from the wealthy Gulf monarchies, but notably only two, Bahrain and Qatar, sent heads of state to the Cairo Summit this week where the plan was unveiled. 
• Writing about both the American and Israeli rejection of the Arab plan, Haaretz’s Amir Tibon notes that “the administration keeps saying it is committed to bringing back all of the hostages and removing Hamas from power. Renewing the war could perhaps achieve the second goal, but at the price of giving up on the first one.”
• It has also emerged that the Trump administration has been holding direct talks with Hamas over the release of US hostages held in Gaza. Of the remaining hostages, five have US citizenship, including 21 year old Edan Alexander, who is believed to be alive.
• There remains 59 hostages  held by Hamas for 517 days. Israel has confirmation that 35 of them are dead, with the hope that the remaining 24 are alive.   

Looking Ahead: Despite the current absence of negotiations it is thought that Israel will wait at least another week before relaunching a military assault on Hamas. 

• All the sides are waiting for Witkoff. His visit has been delayed due to a stalemate in negotiations.
• An Israeli official told Maariv newspaper, “Witkoff won’t be coming here as long as there isn’t any progress in the negotiations. He will only come to close a deal. For the time being, that isn’t the situation. There isn’t any progress and, for now, Hamas hasn’t budged from its position. Israel is prepared to give that effort a few days, and it has means for exerting pressure on Hamas before a resumption of war.”

What’s happened: Over the weekend US envoy Witkoff proposed to extend the ceasefire for the next 50 days to include Ramadan and Passover. 

• Witkoff proposed an extension of the first stage that would see half of the living and dead hostages released on the first day, with the rest released at the end if an agreement about a permanent ceasefire were to be reached. 
• Hamas is opposed to the proposal, whilst Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) said that if Hamas were to change its mind, Israel would immediately commence negotiations about all the details. 
• According to the PMO, Witkoff put forward his proposal after he received the impression that it would be impossible at the current stage to bridge the gaps between the sides to end the war, and that more time would be needed to discuss a permanent ceasefire. 
• The PMO statement added, “While Hamas has repeatedly violated the agreement, Israel has not been found in violation. According to the agreement, Israel could return to fighting after the 42nd day if it gains the impression that the negotiations have been ineffective. This article is supported in a side letter by the previous US administration and has also received the support of the Trump administration.”
• Following Hamas’ rejection of the US offer, Israel announced that it would halt the entry of goods and supplies into Gaza. 
• A stabbing attack took place in Haifa this morning. Initial reports that a 70 year old man was murdered and at least four others hurt, three of them in serious condition. The terrorist was shot and killed at the scene.
• On Sunday, the funeral for Shlomo Mantzur, who was murdered and kidnapped on October 7^th, was held on Kibbutz Kissufim. Speaking at the funeral, President Herzog asked for forgiveness. “Forgiveness for our failure to protect you in the very place that was meant to be your fortress. Forgiveness from you, from your family, from the members of Kissufim, and from all the residents of the western Negev—for not saving you on that bitter, terrible day.”
• On Saturday, Hamas released their latest propaganda video documenting the moment when the brothers Iair and Eitan Horn said goodbye to one another shortly before Iair’s release from captivity.
• Once more thousands of people attended the rally in Hostages’ Square in Tel Aviv on Saturday night. 
• On Sunday night thousands demonstrated outside the Prime Minister Netanyahu’s private residence on Azza Street in Jerusalem, demanding that he not derail the hostage deal. 

Context: With the formal end of the first stage of the ceasefire agreement, Israel is preparing to ratchet up the pressure on Hamas to secure the release of the remaining hostages.

• In the Israeli assessment, of the 59 remaining captives – now held for 514 days – 24 are alive, whilst 35 have been killed by Hamas. 
• The first step of the pressure campaign was to stop the transfer of aid that had formed part of Israel’s commitment in the first stage of the deal. 
• Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs noted, “The goods transferred to Gaza have become the number one source of income for Hamas. The goods have been exploited by Hamas for the reconstruction of its terror infrastructure, Hamas is now running a billion-dollar aid industry that is being used for terrorist purposes.”
• During the 42 day ceasefire more than 25,200 trucks of goods entered Gaza, which is estimated to be enough to sustain the entire population for four months.
• Israel is hoping the threat of the resumption of fighting will motivate Hamas to agree to an extension of a deal that will see more of their prisoners released in return for the remaining hostages.  As part of the threat, the military has warned that a return to fighting will be more aggressive and could include a resumption of targeting killings as well as threatening to cut off supplies of water and electricity.
• To compound the pressure on Hamas, Israel is hoping that the US will increase the diplomatic pressure on Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt to release all of the hostages. 
• Israel has also announced that it will not begin withdrawing troops from the Philadelphi Corridor, which as part of the first stage, it was due to begin on Day 42, and complete the process on Day 50. 
• At this point Prime Minister Netanyahu is looking to explore all possibilities to extend the deal in order to free more hostages before returning to war, even at the heavy price of continuing to release Palestinian prisoners. However he is also facing pressure from his right wing coalition partners in the Religious Zionist party to renew the fighting.       
• There remains some hope that the sides can reach an understanding.  Hamas spokesperson Hazem Qassem said they rejected a continuation of the first stage in the “Israeli format,” which does not lead to negotiations on the second stage of the ceasefire agreement, but it would not rule out a different proposal. 
• Arab media has reported an Egyptian plan to extend the first stage by two weeks, during which negotiations on the second stage are to begin and Hamas will commit to releasing two groups of two living hostages and four murdered hostages each.
• Meanwhile the US State Department announced the expedited delivery of $4 billion in military aid to Israel.
• Ramadan began this weekend and lasts until March 29^th. Passover ends on April 19^th.

Looking ahead: Three of the recently freed hostages, Eli Sharabi, Omer Shem Tov, and Keith Siegel, will travel to Washington later today and meet President Trump tomorrow in order to underscore the importance of releasing all the remaining hostages.      

• At the Arab League summit in Cairo tomorrow, Egypt is expected to present its own plan for rebuilding the Gaza Strip without displacing the residents.  
• Witkoff is due to return to the region once more this week in an effort to reach an agreement. Israel is expected to give the diplomatic efforts one week before a decision is made to resume the fighting.

What’s happened: Yesterday President Herzog hosted an international task force focused on the issue of the hostages.

• The task force included representatives from the US, UK, Canada, Germany and Austria, and was convened by Israel’s Coordinator for the Hostages and the Missing Brig. Gen. (Res.) Gal Hirsch.
• At the start of the meeting, President Herzog said,: “There is a major scar on our nation. There is a major scar on the face of the earth: the issue of the hostages.” He called, “on all parties to the negotiations in Qatar to move forward as much as possible and end this huge tragedy.”
• He added, “This is something that should not be acceptable anywhere in the world, in modern day affairs, in human lives, in the international arena. The fact that you’re here on behalf of such important nations is another example of how this issue is on the top of the agenda. It is the key to the door to moving forward for a better future.”
• Foreign Minister Saar met yesterday in Abu Dhabi with UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed. The two men discussed regional developments and the bilateral relations between the countries.
• In the US, President-elect Trump held a press conference alongside his new envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff.  
• Relating to the talks in Qatar, Witkoff struck an optimistic note. “I think that we’ve had some really great progress, and I’m really hopeful that by the inaugural, we’ll have some good things to announce on behalf of the president.” 

Context: Efforts continue in Qatar to reach a deal, however it remains unclear if the gaps can be breached.

• Kan News revealed an internal Israel government document that states that the goal of the agreement is the release of all the Israeli hostages, civilians and soldiers, living and dead, in exchange for an agreed upon number of Palestinian prisoners in Israel, the restoration of a sustainable quiet that will bring about a permanent ceasefire and the Gaza Strip’s reconstruction. 
• According to a Reuters report the UAE have been holding behind the scenes talks with Israel and the US to explore the formation of a provisional administration for post-war Gaza.  According to that report, the parties discussed “the possibility of the UAE and the US, along with other nations, temporarily overseeing the governance, security and reconstruction of Gaza after the Israeli military withdraws and until a Palestinian administration is able to take over.”
• An Emirati official is quoted as saying, “The UAE will not participate in any plan that fails to include significant reform of the Palestinian Authority, its empowerment, and the establishment of a credible roadmap toward a Palestinian state.” 
• In parallel to the diplomatic efforts the fighting in Gaza continues, with IDF forces operating in the north, centre and south of the Strip. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Halevi visited troops in Jabalya saying, “I am looking at the situation that Hamas is in. They see, every single day, what you are doing to them, and they understand that this is becoming unbearable. And I’m telling you, we won’t stop. We will bring them to the point where they understand that they must return all the hostages.” 
• However inside Israel there is also criticism for the ongoing war, Channel 13 News quoted a high ranking IDF officer saying, “The ground operation has run its course. In the absence of a deal we’re going to return to the same places.” 
• The cost in human lives continues to rise, three more IDF soldiers all in their 20s have been killed in Gaza in the last two days. 
• Last night the Israeli Air Force carried out another air strike in Khan Yunis targeting terrorists who took part in the October 7^th massacre. Arab media reported that 18 people were killed. The IDF Spokesperson’s Office said that several steps were taken before the strike to minimise the risk of civilian casualties.
• Meanwhile, senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan held a press conference in Algeria. Referring to Trump’s threats, he said, “You don’t threaten hell to the Palestinians, they are already in hell….I don’t believe Blinken’s statements that an agreement can be reached within two weeks.” 
• While Trump and his team are not formally part of the ongoing negotiations, it is understood that they have been cooperating with the outgoing Biden administration, and Witkoff has travelled to the region several times since his appointment in November.
• Amid the fighting and the talk, Israel continues to facilitate the entry of humanitarian aid. In the past week, COGAT oversaw over 1,000 trucks entering the Strip. This included over 900 tonnes of equipment for winter – blankets, tarps, coats, and winter clothing. 600 tonnes of hygiene products, 370 tonnes of medical equipment including medication, blood units, and plasma. In addition, medical equipment and medical supplies were coordinated to hospitals in northern Gaza. COGAT also notes, “Hundreds of trucks are currently waiting for collection and distribution on the Gazan side of Kerem Shalom.”
• The UAE also continues to play an important humanitarian role. This week Israel facilitated 127 patients to leave Gaza, primarily children, along with their escorts, to receive medical treatment in the UAE.

Looking ahead: The international task force is expected to meet with representatives of the hostages family forum later today.  

• US envoy Witkoff is expected to join the negotiations in Qatar later this week.
• Trump once again warned “all hell will break loose” in the region if an agreement between Israel and Hamas is not reached by his inauguration on January 20^th