Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Updated May 20, 2025

Netanyahu pushes back on international criticism, as aid enters Gaza

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu has responded to a joint statement from the UK, France, and Canada condemning Israeli conduct in the West Bank and Gaza Strip which also threatened sanctions in the event of settlement growth.

In a statement released last night, Netanyahu said “By asking Israel to end a defensive war for our survival before Hamas terrorists on our border are destroyed and by demanding a Palestinian state, the leaders in London, Ottawa and Paris are offering a huge prize for the genocidal attack on Israel on October 7 while inviting more such atrocities.”
Netanyahu also reiterated that “Israel accepts President Trump’s vision and urges all European leaders to do the same”, and that in the event of Hamas releasing the remaining hostages, its leaders being exiled, and Gaza demilitarising, the war could “end tomorrow.”
The joint British, French, and Canadian statement opened by condemning Israel’s expansion of operations in the Gaza Strip, branded the recently announced aid provision expansion as “wholly inadequate”, and threatened “further concrete actions in response” unless Israel ceased its military options and lifted restrictions on Humanitarian Aid.
West Bank settlement expansion was specifically highlighted as another area of concern, which the statement said “undermined…the security of both Israelis and Palestinians” while threatening “targeted sanctions.”
The statement also condemned Hamas’sOctober 7 attacks against Israel while branding its response as “wholly disproportionate” and “egregious”, reiterating support for an immediate ceasefire and eventual implementation of a two-state solution, and a commitment to “work with the Palestinian Authority, regional partners, Israel and the United States to finalise consensus on arrangements for Gaza’s future, building on the Arab plan.”

Context: The UK, France, and Canada’s statement almost immediately followed Israel increasing its aid provision based on the US-led plan.

Yesterday, the first aid entered the Gaza Strip in eleven weeks, amounting to a total of five UN food lorries. This follows Prime Minister Netanyahu agreeing to allow a “minimal” amount of food into the coastal enclave to prevent famine.
While the UN’s humanitarian chief, Tom Fletcher, welcomed this development, he also described it as a “drop in the ocean” and said that “significantly more aid must be allowed into Gaza, starting tomorrow morning”.
Israel emphasises that it monitors the level of essential goods in Gaza daily via COGAT and that aid is to supplied based on actual need.
Previously, during a 42-day ceasefire starting in January, Israel facilitated 25,000 aid trucks into Gaza — creating a surplus of food and goods.
There is renewed concern in Israel that while the aid delivery mechanism remains unchanged the trucks will be susceptible to being taken over by Hamas.
Concurrently, Israeli negotiators were also instructed to remain in Doha despite the apparent lack of a breakthrough which could lead to a ceasefire and the release of the remaining 58 hostages, held in brutal captivity now for 592 days.
Adam Boehler, the US special envoy for hostage response, also said that “we’re closer than we ever were” to reaching an agreement without providing further details.
Some in Israel have criticised the government’s current policy. In Yediot Ahronot, Nadav Eyal writes that “Had the government presented a realistic plan for Gaza’s future, and had it genuinely engaged in dialogue with Canada, France, Britain…. Israel might have been able to exert the necessary pressure on Hamas.” He adds that such pressure “without doubt, is very justified. For real security to prevail, Hamas has to truly give up power and disarm, to make way for an alternative administration. But for Israel to have a functioning society that is able to fight, we have to recover our hostages from the burning agonies of the fire in Gaza.”
The IDF is continuing its operations across the Gaza Strip as part of Operation Gideon’s Chariots, striking over 160 targets and dismantling a tunnel previously used to attack Israeli troops in the southern Gaza Strip.
There are also unconfirmed reports that an undercover Israeli special forces unit infiltrated Khan Yunis and eliminated Ahmad Sarhan, a senior member of the Popular Resistance Committees. The PRC is a small but aggressive group which is best known for abducting Gilad Shalit in 2006. The Israeli government has not commented on this story, but the PRC have announced Sarhan’s death, referring to him as a “special operations officer.”
The IDF has also confirmed that it conducted an air strike in Lebanon yesterday, targeting and killing a member of Hezbollah’s special operations Radwan Force in the Houla area.

Looking ahead: It is expected that US and Israel supported aid distribution hubs operated by US security contractors will open in the southern Gaza Strip next week. This will be a new mechanism, aimed at delivering aid more efficiently to the civilian population and circumventing Hamas. However, the UN and other agencies have indicated they will not co-operate with these plans, arguing they contradict fundamental humanitarian principles of impartiality, independence, and neutrality.

The Houthis have claimed that they will now enforce a naval blockade on the northern Israeli port city of Haifa, and that ships heading there would be targeted.
The UN has also set a date for a French and Saudi sponsored conference on the two state solution which is due to take place from June 17 to 20 at the UN headquarters in New York. Its intentions is to set the conditions for more states to formally recognise Palestine.

May 19, 2025

Israel renews humanitarian aid into Gaza

What’s happened: The security cabinet met on Sunday evening and decided to immediately resume the delivery of Humanitarian Aid to the Gaza Strip.

The decision was made at the prime minister’s initiative. No vote was held.
The Prime Minister’s Office issued a statement, “On the recommendation of the IDF and based on the operational need to enable the expansion of the military operation to defeat Hamas, Israel will allow a basic quantity of food to be brought in for the population in order to make certain that no starvation crisis develops in the Gaza Strip. Such a crisis would endanger the continuation of Operation ‘Gideon’s Chariots’ to defeat Hamas. Israel will act to deny Hamas’s ability to take control of the distribution of humanitarian assistance in order to ensure that the assistance does not reach the Hamas terrorists.”
The decision prompted harsh criticism from right wing coalition partners. National Security Minister Ben Gvir claimed the decision, “will fuel Hamas and give it oxygen, while our hostages are languishing in the tunnels. The prime minister is making a grave mistake, and he doesn’t even have a majority. Hamas must be crushed, not simultaneously supplied with oxygen to survive.”
There was also criticism from within Netanyahu’s own Likud party, with MK Moshe Saada writing on X: “On one hand, we’re sending five IDF divisions into combat to destroy the enemy; on the other hand, we’re providing that very same enemy with the food and supplies that help it survive and recruit more terrorists. This is an incorrect and immoral decision.”

Context: The decision to renew aid coincides with the launching of its latest, high-intensity military campaign against Hamas, Operation Gideon’s Chariots.

In parallel, Israeli negotiators have extended their stay in Doha in an effort to reach a new hostage deal and ceasefire.
Israel is hoping that a combination of the military campaign and diplomatic pressure applied by the US will lead to a new hostage agreement.
According to reports there has been progress but no breakthrough, with negotiations focused on what appears to be the latest iteration of the Witkoff proposal:
- On the first day half (ten) of the hostages still alive will be released, along with twenty bodies.
- In return Israel will release Palestinian terrorists held in prison. It is unclear if they have reached an agreed ratio. Channel 12 News suggested that Israel has offered over 100 prisoners serving life sentences in exchange for the 10 living hostages, whilst they are prepared to release over 1000 Palestinians arrested since October 7 for the return of twenty bodies held by Hamas.
- The temporary ceasefire will last between 45 and 60 days, but the IDF will remain deployed on the Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors.
- On the tenth day Israel will expect to receive a status report on the condition of the remaining hostages.
- At the end of the ceasefire the remaining hostages (dead and alive) will be released in a similar exchange of prisoners.
- If all the hostages are released, Israel will consent to ending the war on three conditions:
  - Hamas fighters disarm.
  - Gaza will be demilitarised.
  - Hamas leadership surrenders and leaves the Strip.
Arab media report that, following last week’s Israeli air strike, the body of Mohammad Sinwar was found in a tunnel in Khan Yunis, alongside the bodies of ten other commanders, including Mohammad Shabana, commander of Hamas’s Rafah Brigade.
The IDF is keeping the plans of Operation Gideon’s Chariots deliberately vague in its announcement’s so as to not aid the enemy, but the assessment is that the operation includes up to 5 additional divisions including a combination of infantry, armoured corps and special forces all supported by artillery and air strikes, operating simultaneously across various areas of the Strip, including areas that until now, the IDF has not entered.
On Sunday night IDF Spokesperson Brig Gen Effie Defrin outlined three core principles:
- “Achieving operational control in the areas where we operate, clearing those areas of enemy presence and striking terror infrastructure both above and below ground.
- “Distancing the civilian population for its safety from the areas in which we are operating, while weakening Hamas’ control.
- “Targeting Hamas’ command and control system, striking its commanders and remaining capabilities, until its military and governmental collapse.”
So far the US has continued to give Israel support for its military operations, which may help incentivise Hamas to reach a deal. At the same time, the US is not expected to give Israel open ended backing, so it’s also in Israel’s interest to reach an agreement.
Despite all this, two rockets were launched out of Gaza on Sunday. One was intercepted with the other landing in an open area.
The Houthis also continued to fire ballistic missiles towards Israel over the weekend, and have threatened to again target Ben Gurion Airport.

Looking ahead: The IDF is expected to begin the supply of aid today. They will prioritise medical supplies, baby formula and flour.

The volume of aid is expected to increase in the days ahead.
It will take a week or so to set up aid distribution centres that will provide aid directly to the civilian population and circumvent Hamas.

May 14, 2025

Israeli air strikes target Hamas leader in Gaza

What’s happened: Israeli Air Force (IAF) dropped six bunker-busting bombs on a target in Khan Yunis.

According to media reports, the target was Mohammed Sinwar, de facto leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and brother of Yihya Sinwar, the mastermind of the October 7^th massacre, who himself was killed in October 2024.
Israeli sources allege that Sinwar and other Hamas commanders were operating from a bunker below the European Hospital in Khan Yunis, something that has not been denied by the Palestinians.
There has been no confirmation from either Israeli or Palestinian sources that Sinwar was there or any report of his condition following the bombing. Nor has there been any credible report yet as to who else was in the bunker.
Later in the day, the IAF also struck targets in Jabalya in the northern Gaza Strip, following rocket launches on southern Israel, including one targeting the Israeli city of Ashkelon. The IDF issued an evacuation order from sites where the rockets were launched from earlier in the day. Palestinian sources report 29 killed in subsequent Israeli strikes.
The strikes coincided with President Trump’s visit to the Gulf. In Riyadh yesterday, Trump announced a series of large business deals with the Saudis, including a massive $142 billion agreement for Saudi weapons purchases from the US. The Saudis also announced a $20 billion investment in American AI and energy infrastructure.
More dramatically, Trump made a surprise announcement on the lifting of US sanctions on Syria.
In Tel Aviv yesterday, US envoy Steve Witkoff met with released hostage Edan Alexander. Witkoff visited Alexander in the hospital, where he gave him a necklace with a Star of David which had been worn by his son, Andrew Witkoff, who died in 2011 at the age of 22.
Witkoff also met families of hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza in Tel Aviv’s Hostage Square. He told them that Alexander’s release could pave the way for further hostage deals. He also shared with them that the US had been working behind the scenes for nine weeks to secure Alexander’s release.

Context: The timing of the Israeli airstrike in Khan Yunis, just as Trump was giving a speech in Riyadh, was unusual in its sensitivity.

Israeli officials emphasised that the order was given quickly as a rare opportunity to strike key Hamas leaders presented itself.
It also serves, intentionally or not, to remind both the US and its Gulf allies that Israel, though not present as the US makes strikes major deals regarding Yemen, Iran, and Syria, is still a party to the ongoing regional shakeup and will have to have a say in it.
Sinwar was seen by international mediators as having been the chief opponent inside Hamas to any hostage deal, consistently taking a harder line than Hamas’ political leadership outside Gaza and even than his subordinates and associates within Hamas’ military ranks inside the Strip.
Sinwar was one of the Hamas militants who abducted Gilad Shalit in 2006 and held him hostage for five years. In the negotiations that eventually led to Shalit’s release from captivity in 2011, Sinwar insisted on the inclusion of his brother Yihya Sinwar. The two brothers, famed for their fanaticism even by the standards of Hamas, were the key masterminds of the Hamas operation on October 7^th.
Over the course of the war, Sinwar served as a commander of forces in the Khan Yunis sector. Following the killing of both his brother, who had served as a political head of Hamas in Gaza, and Mohammed Deif, who until his assassination in July 2024 had served as a military commander for Hamas in Gaza, Sinwar consolidated his power as the de facto military and civilian chief for what was left of Hamas in the Gaza Strip. His elimination would be a major blow for Hamas, especially coming in the days before Israel appears ready to launch a major military offensive.
Trump’s decision on Syria is widely seen as a vote of confidence in the new regime which replaced Assad six months ago, and a gesture long sought by two of the regime’s US-allied backers, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Israeli officials made no public comments on the lifting of sanctions.
Notably, nothing in the US announcement referenced Israeli military positions in southwestern Syria, held since the Assad regime collapse last December, or ongoing Israeli operations. The US has made no public demands of Israel on this issue and given no private indication of opposing Israeli moves.
Since Trump embarked on his trip to the Gulf, the Houthis have launched three separate rocket attacks on Israel, including one this morning. All three were intercepted. The Trump administration surprised Israel last week with a deal to end its campaign of airstrikes against the Houthis in exchange for a Houthi promise not to target American shipping in the Red Sea. The deal did not stipulate any changes in Houthi actions targeting Israel.
Israel continues to prepare for a major military offensive in Gaza. If no deal is reached for a new ceasefire and hostage release, this is expected to get underway shortly after Trump’s visit to the Persian Gulf ends.

Looking ahead: Today, President Trump will attend a Gulf Cooperation Council summit, where he will meet leaders of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman.

President Trump is also expected to meet with President Ahmed al-Shara of Syria before the GCC summit.
Trump will then head to Doha, where the Qataris have promised him a $400 million airplane as a personal gift.
Israeli negotiators are also in Doha in an effort to reach a new hostage deal, before the IDF launches their wider operation into Gaza.
Similar to the late Hamas commander Deif it could be weeks before there is confirmation if Mohammed Sinwar was killed.

May 13, 2025

Edan Alexander reunited with his family

What’s happened: The kidnapped soldier was released yesterday evening after 584 days in captivity.

He is now recovering in hospital in Tel Aviv, having been reunited with his parents and siblings at an IDF base in the Gaza envelope.
Dr. Hagar Mizrahi, the director of the Health Ministry’s General Medicine Division, told Kan News, “Edan appears to be all right and is able to stand on his own two feet. He will need to be put through extensive tests to determine his true physical and emotional condition.” Mizrachi added that, “He’s independent, is speaking and appears to all of us to be okay. Having said that, we know that a lot of things can remain hidden behind that ‘okay.’”
Upon his release Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “This was achieved thanks to our military pressure, and the political pressure that was exerted by President Trump. That is a winning combination.”
Netanyahu added, that he had spoken with President Trump who expressed his commitment to Israel and “continuing to work with you in close cooperation in order to achieve all of our war objectives. To free all of the hostages and to defeat Hamas. They go together; they are intertwined with one another.”
Later last night the IDF announced that it attacked a number of prominent Hamas terrorists in a command and control compound that Hamas had established in Nasser Hospital in Khan Yunis.

Context: Though every hostage released is seen as a blessing, 58 hostages remain in captivity. Thirty five are understood to be dead. Twenty are alive, whilst the status of three is unclear.

Edan Alexander’s release was unlike all the others that have taken place until now, as this was a US led initiative that circumvented Israel.
Unlike in the past, Hamas held no release ceremony (reportedly at Trump’s specific demand) and nothing was given in exchange.
Also unlike the past, it was Steve Witkoff, the US Special Envoy (rather than an Israeli official) who was the person to receive the call from Alexander once Hamas handed him over to Red Cross officials.
Israel’s role was limited to agreeing to pause aerial intelligence gathering over Gaza and the facilitation of an access corridor in the Khan Yunis area to allow the Red Cross in and out.
There is speculation over the motives of Hamas to agree to this release without receiving something in return. Was it simply a good will gesture to curry favour with Trump during future talks, or was it part of a wider Qatari strategy (which along with the gift of a $400m luxury plane) meant to secure US support for ending the war on their terms.
This release is the first one since January 22^nd, and there is renewed hope that this will reinvigorate efforts to reach a new deal. Israel had already given their consent to Witkoff’s most recent proposal that reportedly includes the release of around half of the living hostages over a 40-day ceasefire, during which time intensive negotiations will look to release all the remaining captives and end the war.
Israel has continued to insist that Hamas cannot remain in power in Gaza on the day after the war, whist Qatar, perceived as Hamas’s main backer, have a vested interest in them remaining in situ.
Concerns remain over humanitarian conditions inside the Strip, although Israeli officials continuing to insist there are currently still enough supplies.
In parallel, the US is working on a new mechanism to allow aid to reach the Gazan civilian population whilst circumventing Hamas. Israel is keen to support any initiative that will deprive Hamas of its governing capabilities.
Born to Israeli parents, Alexander grew up in the US, moved to Israel after high school and joined the Golani infantry brigade.
Israeli media reported that upon his release, he described to his family being outnumbered 30 – 1 when he was captured on his Kissufim base on the Gaza border on October 7^th.
The fact that Trump was able to extract him – due to his dual nationality – has caused some disquiet in Israel and among other hostage families that have sadly concluded that holding US citizenship is worth more than just being Israeli.

Looking ahead: There is speculation as to whether Alexander might fly to Doha and meet President Trump. Although his medical condition is stable, he is likely to remain in hospital and not travel at this point.

Israeli negotiators led by the former Shin Bet deputy, and including the Coordinator for the Hostages and the Missing Persons Gal Hirsch, the prime minister’s foreign policy adviser, Ophir Falk, and Mossad and IDF Military Intelligence Directorate representatives, will travel to Doha today and are expected to remain there at least until Thursday to see if a new deal can be reached.
Meanwhile, the IDF has continued to prepare for a potential large-scale ground manoeuvre.

Edan Alexander is free. What comes next? Richard Pater, Director of BICOM, spoke with LBC on 12 May 2025 about the release of Edan and President Trump’s upcoming trip to the Middle East.

Listen now

May 12, 2025

Dual Israeli – US soldier due to be released today

What’s happened: Hamas announced that it will release Edan Alexander, a kidnapped IDF soldier who is also an American citizen.

His release is being seen as a goodwill gesture towards US President Trump before his trip to the Gulf, and appears to be the result of direct talks between the US and Hamas.
The Alexander family issued a statement noting, “the continuous contact with the American administration regarding the possibility of Edan’s anticipated release in the coming days.”
Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office also issued a statement that the expected release, “without anything in return will be possible due to the vigorous policy that we have led with the backing of President Trump, and thanks to the military pressure of IDF soldiers in the Gaza Strip.” It added that “Israel has not committed to a ceasefire of any kind or the release of terrorists but only to a safe corridor that will allow for the release of Edan.”
Leader of the Opposition Lapid said, “Edan Alexander’s release is welcome and moving, but we must not stop there. This has to lead to a broad hostage deal that will return all the hostages home. They don’t have time. The reports about direct talks between Hamas and the United States are a disgraceful political failure of the Israeli government and the prime minister. The hostages are ours, and the responsibility for getting them back resides with the government. Our hearts are with the families.”
Adding to the criticism of the Israeli government, US envoy Witkoff told hostage families that the US “wants to return the hostages, but Israel is not ready to end the war…. Israel is prolonging the war, even though we do not see where further progress can be made.”
Witkoff also related to negotiations with Iran following the fourth round of negotiations over the weekend. Witkoff denied the US was on its way to signing a deal similar to the 2015 agreement under the Obama administration. “We’re never doing a JCPOA deal where sanctions come off and there’s no sunsetting of their obligations … They cannot have enrichment, they cannot have centrifuges, they cannot have anything that allows them to build a weapon.”
Also over the weekend, Hamas released their latest propaganda video, this one featuring Elkana Bohbot and Yosef-Haim Ohana. It served as another reminder of the awful condition the hostages are in.

Context: Ahead of President Trump’s visit to the region, there are several issues on his agenda that will have a significant impact on Israel.

Foremost are the Iranian nuclear negotiations. Despite Witkoff’s denials, Israel is concerned that the inchoate deal will allow Iran to retain some level of enrichment and will resemble the deal signed by President Obama a decade ago. There is also a fear that it will not relate to Iran’s regional role or their development of advanced missiles.
There is added concern the new agreement will not only allow Iran to retain the knowhow and means to acquire nuclear capabilities in the future, but sanctions relief will free up funds that will allow it to repair its economy and to provide meaningful support to its proxies in the region.
The second issue is the anticipated defence deal between the US and Saudi Arabia, which could challenge the longstanding US – Israel principle of Israel maintaining a qualitative military edge in the region.
As part of such a deal, there are also suggestions that the US could acquiesce to a Saudi nuclear programme. These were supposed to be components of an Israeli – Saudi normalisation agreement, but that now appears to be off the agenda.
The third major issue relates to Gaza, both in terms of securing another hostage deal and how long the US will support an intensification of the fighting.
The US’s unilateral deal over Edan Alexander could relegate the fate of the remaining hostages. It also brings into greater focus the notion that traditionally Israel would do all it could to return Israeli captives. Now the impression is that a dual passport is worth more.
Connected to this is the expected huge financial deal between US and Qatar, that brings the Qataris even closer into Trump’s orbit at Israel’s expense.
The fourth issue is the Houthis. Israel was surprised last week by the US announcement to end their strikes in Yemen, at the same time as attacks on Israel persist. Yesterday the IDF released a warning in Arabic to evacuate three sea ports in Yemen in preparation for an Israeli attack. So far, the IDF has not acted on the threat, allowing for speculation as to whether this was part of physiological warfare or if an attack remains imminent.
In a potential attempt to emphasise the government’s commitment to returning hostages and captured soldiers, the Israeli government announced that, in a special operation by the Mossad and the IDF, it had recovered the body of Sgt. First Class Tzvi Feldman, who fell in the Battle of Sultan Yacob in June 1982 during the First Lebanon War.

Looking ahead: Edan Alexander is now expected to be released this afternoon.

President Trump is due to depart this evening. His first stop will be Saudi Arabia, followed by UAE and Qatar.
There are news reports that Trump’s meeting with Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh on Tuesday is also set to include PA Chairman Abbas, Lebanese President Aoun and Syria‘s de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammad al-Julani).
There are suggestions in the Israeli media that if he is physically well enough, Edan Alexander will fly with his family and Witkoff to meet Trump in Qatar.
The IDF has completed its preparations for a military operation in Gaza, which is anticipated to begin immediately after Trump leaves the region.

May 9, 2025

US unveils Gaza aid plan

What’s happened: US envoy Steve Witkoff unveiled an American aid initiative for Gaza at the UN yesterday.

The US is looking to establish a Gaza Humanitarian Foundation which would operate four distribution sites in the Gaza Strip, serving 1.2 million people initially.
The Foundation would not be operated by the US government personnel, but rather private contractors and would not involve the IDF in its operations, instead relying on its own private security.
It would endeavour to distribute aid in a way that circumvents Hamas control and prevents out the possibility of Hamas profiting from it.
This proposal would be more in line with the IDF’s preference for aid to be distributed by a private international organisation not affiliated with Hamas or UNRWA. Top brass in the IDF have resisted calls by some ministers in government for the IDF to be directly responsible for distributing aid.
Fighting continued in the Gaza Strip yesterday. Two Israeli soldiers, Sergeant Yishai Elyakim Urbach, 20, from Zichron Yaakov and Staff Sergeant Yam Frid, 21, from Slait died in two separate incidents in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. Two other soldiers were seriously wounded in the same attacks.
Israel announced that of the 24 hostages officially presumed to be alive, there are grave concerns about three, two foreign hostages and one Israeli. Families of all three have been informed. This follows days of rumours on the heels of President Trump’s references to 21 living hostages, rather than the official number of 24.

Context: In parallel with the IDF’s resumption of fighting in Gaza since mid-March, no aid has been allowed into the Strip.

During the last hostage deal around 600 trucks of aid entered the strip every day which allowed Hamas to replenish and stockpile goods, but those could run out in the next few weeks.
Earlier this week, there was a clash between the IDF Chief of Staff Zamir and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, after the minister declared it was unnecessary to allow Humanitarian Aid into Gaza. Zamir reportedly responded, “You don’t understand what you are saying. You are endangering us all. There is international law and we are committed to it. We cannot starve the Strip, your statements are dangerous.”
Israel had hoped that the temporary block on aid would create internal pressure on Hamas to agree to a new hostage deal, but this has not transpired.
Ahead of Trump’s visit to the region next week there was some hope that his presence would serve as a catalyst for the sides to reach an understanding around the Witkoff / Egyptian parameters31(12.7%).
Meanwhile, it is now being reported that the US is pursuing a broad defence deal with the Saudis and no longer conditioning it on normalisation of ties with Israel. If true, this would be a dramatic reversal of a longstanding US policy, and significant shift in a major policy priority of both the Biden administration and the first Trump administration.
This would be the third time in recent weeks that the US appears to have distanced itself from Israeli policy positions. The first was when Trump announced the resumption of talks with Iran, whilst sitting alongside Prime Minister Netanyahu. The second was earlier this week, when the US announced it was ending its bombing campaign against the Houthis, on the same day Israel attacked Yemen in response to the missile attack on Ben Gurion Airport.
In addition, President Trump’s flattering remarks about Turkish President Erdogan and the announced withdrawal of US forces from Syria have also raised concerns in Jerusalem.
The new US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, known both for his strong pro-Israel views and his loyalty to Trump, defended the US ceasefire with the Houthis in an interview with Israel’s Channel 12 News in unusually blunt language, saying, “The United States isn’t required to get permission from Israel to make some type of arrangement that would get the Houthis from firing on our ships.”
Since the renewal of hostilities in March, eight Israeli soldiers have fallen in combat in Gaza and one died in an accident near the Strip. The latest deaths take the number of troops killed since the start of the war to 856, including 414 since the launch of the ground operation inside Gaza in November 2023.
As well as the fighting in Gaza, the IDF remains active across other fronts including the West Bank and Lebanon. Most recently, the Israel Air Force carried a significant air strike in southern Lebanon yesterday, reportedly against a large Hezbollah tunnelling project near the Israeli border.

Looking Ahead: The IDF continues its preparations for a major offensive in Gaza. Thousands of reserve soldiers have already been called up. Speaking to reservists yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “to Hamas I say one thing: The rules are about to change very soon.”

It is widely believed that a major military operation will not get underway until after President Trump’s Middle East visit next week.
The very public nature of the preparations, while obviously eliminating the element of surprise, are understood to be a means of pressuring Hamas to agree to a hostage deal and ceasefire on terms that are more agreeable to Israel.

May 6, 2025

IDF to expand Gaza operation

What’s happened: On Sunday night, the security cabinet approved an IDF plan to expand the fighting in Gaza.

As part of the preparation for the new campaign, the IDF has begun mobilising tens of thousands of reservists.
The focus of the expanded operation is for the IDF to capture, control and hold more of the Strip, in order to induce Hamas into a new deal to release the remaining 59 hostages.
Speaking on Monday, IDF Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin clarified, “This operation’s top priority is bringing back the hostages. Then comes the collapse of the Hamas regime, its defeat, its submission. But first of all is bringing the hostages back.”

Context: Nineteen months on from the October 7^th massacre, Israel still finds itself fighting across multiple fronts.

The government argues that two significant factors have changed the situation:
- Unlike the restrictions placed by President Biden, Donald Trump appears to have given Israel a free hand to act (though it remains to be determined how long this will last for).
- During most of the previous fighting, the IDF was operating simultaneously against Hezbollah in the north. With the bulk of fighting now over, the IDF can concentrate more troops into Gaza.
Although the IDF are keeping their operational plans a secret, it is thought that operational plans will be different. The IDF initially acted sequentially, with troops entering Gaza to kill terrorists, dismantle infrastructure but then leave, which – with no alternative leadership – would allow Hamas to regroup and resume control over the area. In contrast, it is believed that now the IDF will operate simultaneously across the Strip in an effort to overwhelm and disrupt Hamas.
The new plan could replicate the recent operation in Rafah, where troops surrounded the city and destroyed terror infrastructure, both above and below ground, and then remained there in order to control the territory.
It is estimated that this new operation could last several months.
Domestically, there is high concern over what the military can achieve in the current situation that it failed to do until now.
There remains harsh criticism of the government who is accused of forsaking the remaining hostages. Additionally, the Israeli public is tired, reservists are worn out and exhausted, and public legitimacy for another major operation in Gaza is questionable. Even within the security cabinet there is a level of distrust between the political and military leaders.
The IDF are now led by Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir. Out of uniform and serving as Director General of the Ministry of Defence on October 7^th, Zamir was outside the chain of command and is seen as being untainted by the failures. He remains deeply committed to the IDF’s values which include the protection of uninvolved civilians.
One dispute is over the renewal of delivery of Humanitarian Aid. Israeli estimates that supplies in Gaza will become dangerously depleted in the next few weeks. It is open to speculation if this will be enough for Hamas to feel the pressure and change its position.
Zamir’s position is that Israel must not starve two million Palestinians. Therefore, Israel must allow food in but in a way that prevents the aid from falling into Hamas’s hands. He also insists that distribution will not be done by the IDF. Therefore plans are being prepared for the IDF to secure safe routes for the delivery of aid, with private companies or international NGO’s responsible to distribute the aid direct to the Gazans, cutting Hamas out of the process.
The latest plan will turn Rafah into the central hub for distributing aid. Distribution centres will be set up in the “sterile zone,” which is designed to be free of any Hamas presence. The aid will be distributed to every Gazan family individually. One representative from every Gazan family will be allowed to take supplies for their family only. According to the defence establishment’s assessments, the average quantity of aid that will have to be distributed is 70 kilograms of supplies for every Gazan family per week. It is hoped this mechanism will prevent Hamas from stealing the aid.
There remains hope that the credibility of the planned operation, combined with humanitarian pressure and Trump’s plan, will push Hamas to show flexibility before the major operation begins.

Looking ahead: President Trump is due to visit the Gulf next week, with planned stops in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE.

The IDF’s anticipated expanded Gaza operation is not expected to begin until after his return, and it is hoped that while in Doha he may be able to secure an agreement around Witkoff’s proposal that can be implemented instead of the military campaign.

April 28, 2025

Hamas casualty figures challenged by new report

What’s happened: New report by the Henry Jackson Society challenges Hamas’s claim that 70 per cent of the reported over 50,000 people killed in Gaza were women and children.

In the report, Prof Lewi Stone and Prof Gregory Rose argue that data published by the Hamas controlled health ministry is inconsistent with its own underlying hospital casualty figures.
Of over 11,000 Hamas Ministry of Health recorded deaths since October 2024, 76 per cent were male, with 58 per cent identified as men of fighting age, contradicting the narrative of indiscriminate Israeli strikes.

Context:

Israel is coordinated with the US in terms of the fighting in Gaza and the continued efforts to reach a new hostage deal.
There is debate among senior politicians with some members of the security cabinet calling for an immediate expansion in the scope of fighting in Gaza in order to fully defeat Hamas. Currently Prime Minister Netanyahu favours giving more time to the hostage negotiators to explore a new deal based on the Witkoff framework.
The Israeli government remains adamant that no Humanitarian Aid is to enter Gaza at present. Ironically, if a decision is made to intensify the fighting it is anticipated that this will first necessitate the moving of Gazan civilians to a new safe zone in the south. As part of that move Israel is then expected to renew the supply of aid, once a mechanism can be established to circumvent Hamas.
The new mechanism to distribute aid is expected to be facilitated by trusted international partners, possibly private US organisations.
Two IDF soldiers were killed on Friday:
- Sgt. Neta Yitzhak Kahana, a 19 year old Border Police undercover soldier from Moshav Eitan, was killed in a firefight in Gaza City’s Sajaiya neighbourhood. An hour later, Armoured Corps officer Cpt. Ido Voloch, a 21-year-old resident of Jerusalem, was killed by an RPG.
- Overall three IDF divisions continue to operate across the Gaza Strip, specifically in the north and south.
- According to the IDF since the renewed operations just over a month ago, “more than 1,800 terror targets across the Gaza Strip have been struck so far, and hundreds of terrorists have been eliminated, including dozens of commanders, mid-level operatives, and government operatives.”

Looking ahead: Israel’s security cabinet is once more scheduled to meet later today, with decisions anticipated over the nature and intensity of the fighting in Gaza.

On Wednesday and Thursday Israel will mark Memorial Day followed by Independence Day. Any mass call up of reserves is expected only after these poignant commemorations.

April 22, 2025

IDF maintains pressure campaign against Hamas in Gaza

Situation update: According to the IDF they currently control roughly 40% of the Gaza Strip’s territory.

After maintaining a degree of ambiguity over the military campaign the IDF has revealed more details of its latest military campaign in Gaza over the last month.
The fighting is taking place in the north, south and central Gaza, focused on remaining hubs of Hamas’s power base. Regular situation assessment meetings are held with the IDF officials responsible for the hostages in order to prevent attacks in parts of Gaza where the hostages are being held.
Since the military operation was re-launched just over a month ago, the IDF have carried out around 1,300 attacks and claim that more than 400 terrorists have been killed, including military commanders and senior Hamas officials.
In the south, the IDF is determined to defeat the Rafah brigade (again). As such the ‘Morag Corridor’ – six km wide, ten km long and cutting off Rafah from the rest of the Gaza Strip – is designed to isolate Rafah and cut access to Khan Yunis. The IDF has identified and destroyed two major tunnels in this area, but it is unclear if more exist.
The IDF believes that its control of the Morag Corridor leaves the Rafah Brigade surrounded, though operatives have continued to exploit the tunnels in the Rafah sector to carry out attacks against IDF forces. According to military estimates, approximately 150 Hamas operatives remain in three neighbourhoods in Rafah.
Over the last few days the Israeli Air Force has struck over 200 military targets throughout the Gaza Strip. According to the IDF this has included, “terrorist cells, launch and sniper posts, weapons storage facilities, and structures used by terrorists for terrorist activity.”
In southern Gaza IDF troops, “dismantled terrorist infrastructure sites and located a weapons cache containing grenades, ammunition, and additional military equipment.”
The IDF also announced the targeting of another terrorist that participated in the October 7th massacre.

Buffer zone: Inside the Gaza periphery the IDF has now established a ‘buffer zone’ and built 15 new military outposts inside Gaza, from north to south Gaza.

These posts, consisting of high mounds of earth surrounded by barbed wire and built adjacent to Israel, are designed to prevent another October 7^th style attack on the communities on the Israeli side of the border.
During the course of the month, Hamas has largely avoided direct confrontations with IDF forces.
For the most part Hamas has decided to withdraw most of its estimated remaining 20,000 fighters – many of whom are considered untrained and recruited in the last year – and have them assimilated among the civilians in the designated safe zone.
As a result, Hamas fighters have reverted to guerilla tactics to attack IDF soldiers, by firing anti-tank rockets and sniper rifles, and by detonating improvised explosive devices (IED’s) and firing rockets.
IDF troops say they rarely see Hamas fighters, who are often able to disappear, presumably down an undiscovered tunnel shaft.

Bedouin Officer killed: Ghaleb Alnasasra a 35 year old Bedoiun tracker from Rahat was killed by an IED in the buffer zone in northern Gaza.

The incident began when fighters suddenly emerged from a tunnel and fired a rocket-propelled grenade at an unarmoured military vehicle. Three female combat soldiers were seriously wounded and were taken by helicopter to hospitals in Israel.
Twenty-eight minutes later, the terrorists detonated an IED, targeting trackers who had come to assist with the wounded soldiers’ evacuation.
The terrorist squad successfully escaped to the nearby town of Beit Hanoun.

Looking ahead / hostage talks: After Hamas rejected the most recent Israeli proposal, a new round of talks to discuss a hostage deal is expected to begin in Cairo in the next couple of days.

Reports suggest that Qatar and Egypt have a new proposal, calling for a truce for between five and seven years, the release of all 59 hostages in exchange for the release of Palestinian terrorists, a declared end to the war and a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.
Israel’s security cabinet is scheduled to meet this evening.
If the talks don’t progress, the IDF is making preparations for an even more comprehensive ground manoeuvre. This could include dividing the Strip in half and for the IDF to take over and hold more territory to increase further pressure on Hamas.

April 22, 2025

IDF publishes investigation

The IDF published its findings into the incident in which Red Crescent workers were killed.

The examination found no evidence to support claims of execution or that any of the deceased were bound before or after the shooting, adding that such claims are blood libels and false accusations against IDF soldiers.
According to the IDF, there were three shooting incidents on that day: In the first incident, troops fired at a vehicle identified as a Hamas vehicle, following which troops remained on high alert for further potential threats.
Approximately an hour later, troops opened fire on suspects emerging from a fire truck and ambulances very close to the area in which the troops were operating, after perceiving an immediate and tangible threat. Supporting surveillance had reported five vehicles approaching rapidly and stopping near the troops, with passengers quickly disembarking. The deputy battalion commander assessed the vehicles as employed by Hamas forces, who had arrived to assist the first vehicle’s passengers, and thus ordered troops to open fire. Fifteen Palestinians were killed, six of whom were identified in a retrospective examination as Hamas terrorists.
Due to poor night visibility, the deputy commander did not initially recognise the vehicles as ambulances. Only later, after approaching the vehicles and scanning them, was it discovered that these were indeed rescue teams.
About 15 minutes later, troops fired at a Palestinian UN vehicle due to operational errors in breach of regulations. At dawn, it was decided to gather and cover the bodies to prevent further harm and clear the vehicles from the route in preparation for civilian evacuation.
The IDF adds that while removing the bodies was reasonable under the circumstances, the decision to crush the vehicles was wrong. It adds that in general, there was no attempt to conceal the event, which was discussed with international organisations and the UN, including coordination for the removal of bodies.
The examination determined that the fire in the first two incidents resulted from an operational misunderstanding by the troops, who believed they faced a tangible threat from enemy forces. The third incident involved a breach of orders during a combat setting.
In its conclusion of the examination process, the examination identified several professional failures, breaches of orders, and a failure to fully report the incident. The Commanding Officer of the 14th Brigade will receive a reprimand, for his overall responsibility for the incident, including the procedure of combat and management of the scene afterward. The deputy commander of the Golani Reconnaissance Battalion – whom the IDF emphasised is a highly respected officer – will be dismissed from his position due to his responsibilities as the field commander in this incident and for providing an incomplete and inaccurate report during the debrief.

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