Peace Partners, Normalisation and Coexistence 2

Updated November 19, 2025

Israel-Saudi normalisation still distant while US-Saudi ties deepen

What’s happened: The US and Saudi Arabia signed “landmark agreements” that according to the White House will “deepen the US-Saudi strategic partnership.”

Among the key elements of “The Strategic Defence Agreement” is the affirmation that Saudi Arabia views the US as its primary strategic ally, and includes cooperation in the field of civilian nuclear energy.
According to the White House, “President Trump approved a major defence sale package, including future F-35 deliveries…The President secured an agreement for Saudi Arabia to purchase nearly 300 American tanks, enabling Saudi Arabia to build up its own defence capabilities.”
US President Trump said before his meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) at the White House that Saudi Arabia and Israel are both great American allies.
For his part MBS reiterated that normalising Saudi ties with Israel was contingent on a clear path to establishing a Palestinian state. He said, “We believe having good relations with all Middle Eastern countries is a good thing, and we want to be part of the Abraham Accords. But we want also to be sure that we secure a clear path of a two-state solution.”
A retired Saudi army general Hassan al-Shahri, who is an official from the royal family, told Kan News that the talks between the crown prince and President Trump could jumpstart a future Israeli-Saudi dialogue about normalisation. However, he clarified that relations would not be normalised until a breakthrough is made on the Palestinian issue.

Context: The Israeli government had hoped that the US-Saudi security pact and the sale of F-35s would have been contingent on Israeli-Saudi normalisation.

The Saudis have not ruled out normalisation in the future, but their current posture suggests that they will be only be willing to start holding talks after the second stage of Trump’s plan is completed. The concern with this approach is that the Saudis are giving Hamas a veto on normalisation. Currently Hamas is refusing to make progress on disarmament.
Hamas is receiving backing for its stance from Iran, who are wary that normalisation would strengthen the regional alliance against it.
A second Saudi demand is for Israel to publicly endorse the Trump 20 Point Plan and the UN Security Council resolution regarding the pathway for the eventual establishment of a Palestinian state. This remains highly unlikely while Netanyahu continues to reiterate his opposition to a Palestinian state (and while the government is dependent on the support of Smotrich and Ben Gvir).
The Saudis do not rule out talks on civilian and economic matters, but will stop short of normalisation without the progress on the Palestinian front.
A senior Saudi adviser told Yediot Ahronot, MBS “wanted to give Trump and Netanyahu a glimmer of hope, but made no commitment. You have to understand from what he said that the crown prince is willing, but wants something in return on the Palestinian matter. The future of the Palestinians in the West Bank is of great interest to him. Don’t forget that bin Salman loathes Hamas and refuses to take in Palestinians from Gaza to Saudi Arabia.”
On the issue of the F-35s, Israel is not opposed in principle, but reportedly asked for two conditions. These include excluding the plane’s most advanced systems and for the US to supply Israeli with other advanced military technology that has yet to be sold to Israel.
The F-35 are considered the world’s most technologically advanced stealth jets. The advanced systems of sensors, cameras and radars allow the planes to monitor any aerial movement in the region and have the ability to provide targets to planes and to ground systems.
In the end it could be that Saudi Arabia and Israel will receive the same systems. This is acceptable for some within the Israeli security establishment as they are confident that the additional Israeli built technology and the skill of Israel’s pilots will help maintain Israel’s qualitative edge.
Others are alarmed that the long-term threat could creating future vulnerability and limit Israel’s regional operational freedom.
It remains unclear whether Israel is a coordinated partner in a larger US–Saudi strategy or being marginalised as Washington and Riyadh advance bilaterally that Israel may just have to accept.

Looking ahead: It is expected to take several years to manufacture and deliver the jets to the Saudis, in which time the onus will be on Israel to continue to make further technological breakthroughs.

Although Israel certainly views MBS as a future partner, the longer term political stability of Saudi Arabia remains a concern, which is sharpened if they possess advanced military and civilian nuclear capacity.

November 18, 2025

Netanyahu welcomes UN vote on Gaza

What’s happened: The United Nations Security Council approved Resolution 2803, endorsing President Trump’s Comprehensive Plan and granting an international mandate for the creation of an International Stabilisation Force to operate in Gaza for the next two years.

The resolution explicitly references both the Board of Peace, a body to be managed by the Trump Administration and a “path to a Palestinian state.”
The UNSC resolution authorises Trump’s Board of Peace to oversee governance of the strip until December 31, 2027. The Board of Peace will be empowered to appoint a “technocratic, apolitical committee of competent Palestinians from the Strip” to manage the day-to-day affairs of the Gaza Strip.
The resolution also authorises the World Bank to allocate financial resources for the reconstruction of Gaza and calls for the establishment of an international trust fund for Gaza reconstruction.
The Board of Peace will oversee the International Stabilisation Force, a multination armed force operating with a UN mandate that will “coordinate” with Israel and Egypt for security missions in the Gaza Strip, including training and support Palestinian police personnel, securing humanitarian corridors, and securing border areas.
PM Netanyahu reacted to the vote by praising the Trump plan. In a post on X, he wrote that “The State of Israel and PM Netanyahu applaud President @realDonaldTrump and his tireless and devoted team. The courage and sacrifice of our brave soldiers, along with President Trump’s diplomatic efforts, helped bring home all of the living hostages and most of the deceased ones. and saying it “will lead to peace.”
Before the vote, at the start of the Government meeting on Sunday, Netanyahu reiterated that his “opposition to a Palestinian state in any territory has not changed one bit.”
Israel’s UN Ambassador Danny Danon also praised the adoption of the resolution, emphasising that Israel would not compromise on the implementation of the resolution’s demands for full Hamas disarmament. “As we are determined to bring back all the hostages, we will display the same determination and ensure that Hamas is disarmed,” he said. “We will not stop and will not rest until Hamas is not a threat to the State of Israel.”
The Palestinian Authority’s Foreign Minister Varsen Aghabekian Shahin also praised the resolution’s adoption, calling it a “first step in a long road towards peace.” Speaking to reporters in the Philippines, she said that “we could not embark on anything else before we had a ceasefire.”
Hamas issued a statement rejecting the UN Security Council resolution, saying that it did not address the Palestinians’ rights and demands. It further indicated that it would not cooperate with any attempt to disarm the organisation.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres hailed the resolution’s adoption and said that it was “essential now to translate the diplomatic momentum into concrete and urgently needed steps on the ground.”

Context: Despite reservations about some of the language – specifically relating to a pathway to a Palestinian state – Israel accepted the resolution as it sees it as a natural progression towards the next stage of the Trump 20 Point Plan.

According to Israel Hayom, Israel was opposed to the changes in the text’s wording, but later dropped its opposition after receiving private commitments from the Trump administration that the state envisioned in the resolution, as far as the US administration is concerned, is in line with the 2020 “Deal of the Century” proposal of the first Trump administration, and not one that see the entirety of the West Bank and Gaza handed over to a fully sovereign Palestinian state.
China and Russia abstained in the vote on the resolution’s adoption. Either country could have vetoed the resolution had they been so inclined. Both expressed serious reservations about the outsized role of the US, particularly the implied mandate of President Trump’s Board of Peace to govern Gaza.
In an earlier Russian draft, the Board of Peace was unmentioned entirely. The Chinese and Russians were concerned that the ISF would essentially be reporting to the Board of Peace and through it to Washington. Ultimately, in the approved text, the Board of Peace retains the powers Trump had sought for it, but the ISF has to report back to the Security Council every six months.
Algeria, the only member of the UN Arab Group currently on the Security Council voted in favour of the resolution, but only after securing language on Palestinian statehood that went beyond the wording in Trump’s 20-point plan or the original American draft of the resolution.
Algeria’s ambassador told the Council that “genuine peace in the Middle East cannot be achieved without justice, justice for the Palestinian people, who have waited for decades for the creation of their independent state.”
Algeria was not alone on insisting on these changes to the resolution’s text. The New York Times reports that other countries on the Security Council, including France, Guyana, Pakistan, Slovenia, and Somalia, pushed for more forceful language on Palestinian statehood.
The resolution stipulates that after the Palestinian Authority reforms itself and reconstruction of Gaza progresses, “conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood.”

Looking ahead: The mandate of the ISF goes far beyond mere peacekeeping and includes disarmament.

The question of when the ISF could begin operating remains open.
Though the Security Council resolution gives it a mandate to disarm Hamas, no country presently seems willing to take on the task.
It can’t be effective in the parts of Gaza under Hamas control while Hamas forces still operate there as quasi-sovereign military and police force. It could conceivably operate in areas the IDF vacates, but Israel won’t vacate these areas until some kind of Hamas disarmament is achieved.
President Trump is due to meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman today in the White House. Their discussions could have far-reaching implications for the entire regional alliance structure following both the Gaza War and the Twelve Day War with Iran.
Trump announced yesterday his intention to sell the Saudis F-35 fighter jets, a move that could put Israel’s qualitative military edge at risk.
Previous US administration’s (including Trump’s) had conditioned any such sale on Saudi commitments to scale back relations with China and to normalise relations with Israel. It is not yet clear what Trump will be expecting from the Saudis in return for the sale announced yesterday.

November 17, 2025

UN Security Council set to vote on Gaza resolution

What’s happening: The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote tonight on the US proposal for the day after the war in Gaza.

On Friday evening the US announced a consensual text reached alongside Qatar, Egypt, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Jordan and Turkey. Their joint statement endorsed “a pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood” emphasising that “the Plan provides a viable path towards peace and stability, not only between the Israelis and the Palestinians, but for the entire region.”
The resolution which will endorse the twenty point Trump plan is also expected to outline the mandate of the International Stabilisation Force.
In anticipation of the approval of the resolution, Indonesia’s Defence Minister confirmed that 20,000 troops have been trained to take on health and construction-related tasks for a peacekeeping operation in Gaza.
Speaking at the start of the Government meeting on Sunday, Prime Minister Netanyahu reiterated that “Hamas will be disarmed. Either this will happen the easy way or it will happen the hard way.”
Regarding a Palestinian state, Netanyahu said, “Our opposition to a Palestinian state in any territory west of the Jordan [River], this opposition is existing, valid, and has not changed one bit.”
He also addressed the recent spike in settler violence saying, it was carried out by “a minority that enters Judea and Samaria, and does not represent the large public of settlers, who are law-abiding and loyal to the state.” Netanyahu added that the government would take action against these disturbances.

Context: Israel’s top priority will be for the disarming of Hamas and the demilitarisation of the Strip.

Israel had hoped it would be given veto power to prevent the deployment of troops from Turkey or Qatar, but according to the draft text, only “close consultations” will be held with Israel.
There is also concern that any presence of international forces will restrict the IDF’s freedom of action.
However, even with the approval of a UN resolution it seems unlikely that any force composition will be able to disarm Hamas. Moreover, most countries have refused to send troops to Gaza as long as Hamas remains armed.
Hamas continues to reject any efforts to disarm.
A disturbing report on Kan News revealed that Hamas has in recent weeks begun to stockpile advanced weapons in Africa, Yemen and other supportive countries for it to use in a time of need in the Gaza Strip and elsewhere.
The UN Security Council’s endorsement of a Palestinian state – via its approved wording of ‘pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood’ at this moment is also a cause of great concern for the Israeli government, which believes that in the aftermath of the October 7 massacre it would be perceived as a reward for terrorism. The UN move follows unilateral recognition by UK, France, Canada and others, (but this time is being led by the US).
Some in Israel highlight that the resolution will reference Trump’s 2020 peace plan, which includes many favourable conditions for Israel, but the text could also reference other initiatives (perceived as less favourable to Israel) like the French-Saudi plan too.
There appears to be no reference to the key reforms incumbent on the Palestinians, for example refraining and condemning terrorism, incitement, and the pay-to-slay incentivised payments programme.
Meanwhile, on Friday the body of hostage Meny Godard was returned to Israel. Godard was 73 years old when he was murdered on October 7 along with this wife, with his body taken from his home in Kibbutz Beeri to Gaza. Three deceased hostages remain in Gaza: Ran Gvili, Dror Or and Sudthisak Rinthalak with their fate currently unknown.

Looking ahead: The UN Security Council is expected to convene and vote on the resolution this evening.

On Tuesday President Trump is due to host Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Washington. The proposed security agreement they are expected to agree includes concerning for Israeli security, chiefly the potential sale of F-35 fighter jets, that could significantly degrade Israel’s qualitative military edge in the region.
Separately, US envoy Witkoff, is set to meet once more with the head of Hamas’ politburo, Khalil al-Hayya.

November 7, 2025

Kazakhstan to join Abraham Accords

What’s happened: President Trump announced that Kazakhstan would join the Abraham Accords after he spoke to Prime Minister Netanyahu and Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

On Thursday Trump met with Tokayev alongside four other Central Asian leaders from Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
Trump said, “This is a major step forward in building bridges across the World. Today, more nations are lining up to embrace peace and prosperity through my Abraham Accords.”
The Kazakh government released a statement noting, “Our anticipated accession to the Abraham Accords represents a natural and logical continuation of Kazakhstan’s foreign policy course, grounded in dialogue, mutual respect, and regional stability.”

Context: Kazakhstan is a Muslim majority country, that already has full diplomatic relations with Israel since 1992.

Prime Minister Netanyahu made an official visit to the Kazakhstani capital Astana in 2016.
For Trump the term ‘Abraham Accords’ is about Muslim or Arab countries expanding economic cooperation with Israel (and the US).
Trump’s meeting with the leaders of the five Central Asian countries is aimed at gaining more influence in a region long dominated by Russia and growing interest by China.
Specifically with Kazakhstan, the shared Israel – US interest is focused on weakening the Iranian-Russian-Chinese axis in that region.
Kazakhstan now join the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco. Azerbaijan is also expected to join. Like Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan already has longstanding relations with Israel.
The US is also keen to access Kazakhstan’s rare minerals particularly those vital components for digital devices.
The Coalition for Regional Security released a statement, welcoming “another step towards expanding the important agreements with a moderate Muslim country of geostrategic importance in Asia. We call on President Trump to continue implementing the regional vision that will bring security to Israel and stability to the entire Middle East. We must not stop here. Our eyes are on the accession of Saudi Arabia and other moderate countries in the Middle East to the Abraham Accords.”

Looking ahead: Trump has suggested that other countries wished to join the Abraham Accords and further announcements would follow.

President Herzog is scheduled to visit Kazakhstan in early 2026.

November 6, 2025

Body of Joshua Mollel returned to Israel

Hostage update: A body handed over to Israel by Hamas yesterday has been confirmed to be that of Joshua Mollel, a 21-year-old Tanzanian national who was working as an agricultural intern on Kibbutz Nahal Oz where he was murdered by Hamas terrorists on October 7, 2023.

Mollel had only arrived in Israel 19 days before the Hamas rampage; it was his first time traveling outside of his home country. According to his family, he came to learn about Israeli farming and planned on returning to Tanzania to open his own agricultural business.
Following the confirmation that the body was indeed that of a deceased hostage, the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office put out a statement saying, “The Israeli government shares in the deep sorrow of the Mollel family and of all the families of the fallen hostages.”
Six deceased hostages are still in Gaza.
The standoff over the estimated 150 Hamas fighters holed up in a tunnel on the Israeli side of the Yellow Line continues, with some reporting in the Israeli media indicating that Israel believes the body of Lt. Hadar Goldin, who was killed in combat with Hamas in 2014, might be held in the tunnel where the Hamas fighters are, and other reports casting doubt on the claim.

November 4, 2025

US circulates draft UN Plan for postwar Gaza

What’s happened: The draft UN Security council resolution would, among other things, create an International Stabilisation Force (ISF) for the demilitarisation of Gaza and the “decommissioning of weapons from non-state armed groups,” presumably including Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

The arrangements included in the UN Security Council resolution would come into force for a two-year period, which would expire on December 31, 2027. Beyond that, any reauthorisation of the ISF would need further action from the Security Council as well as the agreement of both Israel and Egypt.
The resolution stipulates that the Board of Peace (BoP) will function “as a transitional governance administration with international legal personality” responsible for funding and redevelopment of the Gaza Strip until such time as the Palestinian Authority has successfully reformed itself to the satisfaction of the BoP so it can assume responsibility for the governance of the Strip itself.
As such, the resolution endows the BoP with broad governing powers over finance, entry and exit of persons, humanitarian aid, reconstruction and, perhaps most importantly, the establishment of an armed security mechanism.
This mechanism, known as the International Stabilisation Force, will work with Israel and Egypt “along with the newly trained and vetted Palestinian police force.” The wording of the draft gives the ISF powers that are beyond mere peacekeeping and would seem to involve enforcement, particularly of the disarming of Hamas.
The ISF, in the current draft, would be authorised to “help secure border areas; stabilise the security environment in Gaza by ensuring the process of demilitarising the Gaza Strip, including the destruction and prevention of rebuilding of military, terror, and offensive infrastructure, as well as the permanent decommissioning of weapons from non-state armed groups; protect civilians, including humanitarian operations; train and provide support to the vetted Palestinian police forces; coordinate with relevant States to secure humanitarian corridors; and undertake such additional tasks as may be necessary in support of the Comprehensive Plan.”
In related news, Israel handed over the bodies of 45 Palestinians killed in the Gaza War yesterday after Hamas returned the bodies of three Israeli hostages it had abducted in the October 7 attack. The bodies of eight Israeli hostages remain in Gaza in violation of the ceasefire agreement as Hamas was due to return all hostages, living and dead, within 72 hours of the ceasefire’s implementation.
A report on Kan Radio, the Israeli public broadcaster, indicates that Iran is arming its proxies in Iraq in anticipation of a future war with Israel.

Context: The draft of the UN Security Council resolution that has been circulated has ben produced by the US reflecting their position. Negotiations will begin now with other Security Council members with the goal of reaching an agreed text.

The resolution would constitute a formal legal basis for the implementation of President Trump’s 20-point plan (referred to in the resolution as the “Comprehensive Plan”), which effectively ended the war four weeks ago.
While the ISF and BoP are merely proposed institutions, another postwar institution from the October ceasefire is already up and running. This is the US-led Civil‑Military Coordination Center (CMCC) operating out of Kiryat Gat in southern Israel.
- The CMCC has roughly 200 US military personnel, which, according to CENTCOM, will not be entering Gaza.
- Their task is to facilitate aid into Gaza even now, before the establishment of the temporary governance institutions and security forces, and to monitor implementation of the ceasefire.
- The CMCC facility serves as a joint platform for international, NGO, civilian & military actors to collaborate.
While the US text provides a mandate for the ISF to enforce Hamas disarmament, it is an open question the extent to which Arab or Western forces would be willing or able to do this. Several countries mooted to take part in the force, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Azerbaijan, Jordan and Morocco reportedly oppose sending forces while Hamas continues to retain military command there.

Looking ahead: A report in Israel Hayom claims that Hamas is planning to use the media to “ambush” Israel by inflating humanitarian crisis in the coming winter months in hope of creating pressure for Israel to move forward into the second stage of the ceasefire without Hamas needing to fulfil its commitments in the first stage.

An unnamed Hamas spokesman is quoted in the report as saying that “a coordinated diplomatic effort must be launched that connects us with Arab and Islamic countries and international powers, such as China and Russia. A comprehensive media campaign is needed to expose (Israel’s) intentions and its crimes and to highlight the suffering of the people of Gaza. The media is an equally important weapon as any other.”
This report comes against the background of growing Israeli frustration with the delays in releasing the bodies of deceased hostages.
It was anticipated that not all the bodies could be recovered within the 72-hour deadline set by the ceasefire. Nearly a month later, however, with several incidents of remains being misidentified as hostages and reports of staged discoveries, frustration is growing in Israel. Many now doubt whether Hamas intends to honour the ceasefire arrangements, as the group appears determined to prolong the process and retain its final bargaining chips.

October 27, 2025

Efforts continue to recovery hostages bodies

What’s happening: In close coordination with Israel, an Egyptian team entered Gaza with heavy diggers to try to locate and retrieve hostage bodies.

Israel gave consent for Egypt to bring in the heavy equipment and gave the Egyptians the geolocations where it believes some of the bodies are buried.
In addition, Israel has allowed Hamas representatives to cross the Yellow Line in the Israeli held part of Gaza in order to try and locate hostages’ bodies together with the Red Cross.
The searches follow the latest comments by President Trump over the weekend that, “Hamas is going to have to start returning the bodies of the hostages…quickly, or the other countries involved…will take action.”
President Trump also related to the two bodies of American citizens, Itay Chen and Omer Neutra, still held by Hamas. During his visit at the end of last week US Secretary of State Rubio said that, “the remains are going to be released. That’s going to happen. And if it doesn’t, then the deal got broken. But it’s going to happen.”
Rubio also met with the families of the American-Israeli hostages and later wrote on X that “We will not rest until their—and all—remains are returned.”
Defence Minister Katz also released a statement noting, “The most urgent moral mission is, of course, the return of all the hostages and the fallen to their homes, and we will do everything to fulfil this sacred and critical mission.”
Katz revealed that 60 per cent of Hamas’s underground tunnels network still remains, saying, “I have instructed the IDF to prioritise the destruction of the tunnels as the central task in the yellow zone currently under our control.” Katz added that this would be coordinated with the US to, “find a way to thoroughly address the dismantling and destruction of all terror tunnels in the remaining territory under their responsibility, alongside disarming Hamas.”
On Saturday the Israeli Air Force struck the Nuseirat area in the central Gaza Strip, west of the yellow line. The IDF Spokesperson’s Office confirmed, “The IDF targeted an Islamic Jihad terrorist who planned to carry out a terror attack against IDF forces in the immediate future. The troops in the Southern Command are deployed in the area in accordance with the terms of the ceasefire agreement and will continue to act to eliminate any immediate threat.”

Context: According to point four of the Trump plan, Hamas should have returned all hostages, the living and dead, within 72 hours, so they are already in clear violation.

It has now been six days since the last remains of hostages, Arie Zalmanowicz and Tamir Adar, were returned to Israel.
Thirteen bodies remain in Gaza. According to Israeli intelligence, Hamas know the location of at least eight bodies of hostages.
The entry of Egyptians marks the first time since the ceasefire that Israel has allowed a foreign team to enter Gaza. Last week Israel refused entry to dozens of Turkish rescue workers.
Egyptian President Sisi made a personal commitment at the peace summit he hosted in Sharm el-Sheikh that the Israeli bodies will be returned.
The entry of the Egyptian team was agreed upon during talks in Israel with Egyptian General Intelligence Director Hassan Rashad. An additional Israeli security team visited Cairo over the weekend to coordinate it.
The latest Trump post once more underscores how the president remains personally committed to the return of all the bodies. On the one hand he backs the Israeli position, whilst he also continues to carry favour with the Qataris. The latest example was his fawning praise heaped on the Qatari emir when they met on board Air Force One, whilst it refuelled in Doha.
The general assessment in Israel is that Hamas is lying and deliberately refusing to return the bodies it has in its possession. This is partly in order to prolong the current ceasefire and hold off the next stage that includes the demand for them to disarm. In addition, they are keenly aware of Israeli society’s sensibilities on this matter.
Israel is keen to add further pressure on Hamas including the threat of resuming the fighting. Israel could also re-arrest prisoners recently released to the West Bank, or impose restrictions on the humanitarian aid.
Following a train of senior US officials visiting last week, the Israeli government pushed back at the notion that it is a US ‘protectorate’. Nevertheless Israel is increasingly reliant on the US, as there are divergent opinions on would-be regional allies.
Saudi Arabia is keen to play a dominant role in rebuilding Gaza, but will not fund anything until a new Palestinian led government of technocrats is formed in Gaza.
Turkey is thought to be trying to rebrand Hamas, and maintain its influence in Gaza, however the US has so far backed the Israeli position vetoing an entry of the Turkish troops as part of the International Stabilisation Force.
Egypt continues its longstanding efforts to bring about reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas.
In the meantime, Hamas continues to reassert control, killing off rivals and reorganising their forces.

Looking ahead: In his weekend social media post, Trump gave Hamas a 48 hour deadline – which expires today – but left in unclear what the consequences of failure to deliver would be.

It remains unclear which countries will deploy troops into Gaza while Hamas maintain their weapons. Egypt for example has refused to send in soldiers and is only willing to send military advisors and prefers a Palestinian entity to take control. Similarly, the UAE and Saudi Arabia also oppose sending forces in while Hamas continues to retain military command there. The other countries involved, Indonesia, Azerbaijan, Jordan and Morocco have reportedly taken a similar stance.
Ahead of his 90^th birthday, the Chairman of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas announced that the Deputy Chairman of the PLO Executive Committee, Hussein al-Sheikh will take over if the position becomes vacant.

July 10, 2025

The Knesset receives optimistic message from Syria

What’s happened: On Wednesday, July 9, a conference in the Israeli parliament hosted a Syrian businessman and political activist.

The activist, Shadi Martini, reported that he met with Syrian President Al-Sharaa two weeks prior and had a long conversation about Israel. Al-Sharaa told him that, “Opportunities like these in the Middle East come once in a century, but the window won’t always be open. Let us take advantage of this window, not miss it, because I want Israeli, Syrian, Saudi, Palestinian and Jordanian children to grow up with hope.”
Another attendee to the Knesset event was a Saudi journalist Abdulaziz Alkhamis, based in the UAE. He said that, “From Riyadh to Abu Dhabi, the message isn’t who won the war, but what comes next. The Gulf is war-weary. There’s a hunger for stability and partnership. We’re asking if Israel can move from an era of force to an era of partnership, and to use its military deterrence, which it definitely has, for diplomatic success. Please turn the advantages of the Iron Dome into a bridge of hope.”

June 30, 2025

Speculation and pressure to secure hostage deal

What’s happened: On Sunday, Prime Minister Netanyahu alluded to the latest diplomatic moves being discussed behind the scenes.

Netanyahu suggested, “that many opportunities have now opened in the wake of this victory. adding, “first of all, to extricate the hostages. Obviously, we are going to have to solve the Gaza issue as well, to defeat Hamas, but I expect that we will accomplish both missions.”
In an interview on Fox News President Trump said that other countries had recently reached out to him and had asked to join the Abraham Accords. “We have some really great countries in there right now, and I think we’re going to start loading them up, because Iran was the primary problem.”
Last night the forum of security ministers met to discuss the war in Gaza. The meeting ended without any decision having been made.
Whilst in Gaza, British-Israeli soldier Sgt. Yisrael Natan Rosenfeld, was killed yesterday by a improvised explosive device (IED) in the northern Gaza Strip. He is 880^th IDF soldier to fall since October 2023.
On Sunday the IDF confirmed that Hakham Muhammad Issa Al-Issa, a senior Hamas military wing official, considered one of the architects of the October 7 massacre, had been eliminated. Issa had played a key role in military training and weapons production.

Context: There is renewed hope that, now the war with Iran is over, the government can prioritise securing the release of the 50 hostages, 20 of whom are thought to be alive, who have now been held for 633 days.

Commentators have noted that, in his comments last night, Netanyahu for the first time cited the release of the hostages as the primary objective, rather than the defeat of Hamas.
The change in Netanyahu’s language could also be a result of the position taken by Chief of Staff Zamir, who said that the IDF is close to achieving the objectives it was given in Gaza.
It is understood, the IDF are close to controlling 75 per cent of the Gaza Strip and can’t move much further without risking the hostages. Whist by remaining static they are susceptible to continued Hamas attacks.
Netanyahu’s comments followed the optimistic posts by President Trump and his talk about a possible ceasefire and further diplomatic developments.
As well as ongoing speculation around Saudi Arabia there are suggestions that Syria would be open to normalisation with Israel.
According to the latest reports in Arab media, Syria is demanding Israeli recognition of Ahmed al-Sharaa’s regime, a withdrawal from the buffer zone and the territories that Israel took over in southern Syria, and diplomatic arrangements in southern Syria.
At the same time, sources from diplomatic circles indicate that Syria is prepared to recognise Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.
Over the weekend a Syrian official said they would not rule out the possibility of a meeting between President al-Sharaa and Prime Minister Netanyahu on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York in September.
Despite ongoing talks via Egyptian and Qatari mediators no breakthrough has been achieved yet. Hamas still refuses to agree to a partial deal without unequivocal guarantees about the war’s end.
Israel has accepted the US proposed Witkoff deal, but so far Netanyahu, has refused to agree to end the war completely, without Hamas disarming and removal from power.
The Hamas leadership remains in disarray, now compounded by Iran’s defeat — an event with direct implications for both Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which were part of the Iranian proxy network and benefited from its technical, military, and financial support.
In parallel, the government has approved the return of residents from eight more communities who were displaced after being attacked by Hamas on October 7, allowing them to return to their homes near the Gaza border. This is another indication that the security threat posed by Hamas has diminished.
Despite the presence of hard-right ministers opposed to ending the war with Hamas, their influence appears to be waning, as the latest polling suggests that many prospective Ben Gvir voters have defected to Likud, while Smotrich continues to poll below the electoral threshold.

Looking ahead: Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer will arrive in Washington today, where he is expected to meet senior White House officials to discuss ending the war in Gaza and the possible expansion of the Abraham Accords.

The security cabinet are expected to reconvene later today.
There is speculation that if successful, Netanyahu will travel to Washington in two weeks’ time.
After his court appearances this week were cancelled, further delays are expected, particularly if he does travel to Washington. After that the court is scheduled to break for its summer recess.

March 18, 2025

Operation Strength and Sword begins as Israel attacks dozens of Hamas targets

What’s happened: The IDF has launched a series of what it termed preemptive strikes in Gaza, targeting leadership officials, mid-ranking military Hamas commanders, and terrorist infrastructure.

An Israeli official said that the strikes were based on Hamas’s readiness to execute terror attacks, build up force, and re-arm.
The Prime Minister’s Office announced that Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Katz instructed the IDF “to act with strength against the Hamas terrorist organisation in the Gaza Strip.” This follows Hamas’s repeated refusal to release our hostages and its rejection of all the proposals it received from US President’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, and from the mediators.
The statement added that: “The IDF is currently targeting Hamas terrorist organisation objectives across the Gaza Strip, with the goal of achieving the war objectives as determined by the political leadership, including the release of all our hostages – both the living and the fallen.”
Defence Minister Katz said “If Hamas does not release all the hostages, the gates of hell will be opened on Gaza and Hamas’s murderers and rapists will encounter the IDF at an intensity they haven’t known until today.”
Israel has stated that at least five prominent Hamas officials were eliminated in last night’s air strikes. These include:
- Issam al-Da’alis, considered to be one of Hamas’s chief administrators who effectively served as Hamas’s prime minister in Gaza.
- Bahjat Abu Sultan, who held a rank equivalent to brigadier-general, was responsible for domestic operations in Gaza and was considered to be a prominent Hamas leader.
- Ahmad Omar Al-Taha, who served as the director general of Hamas’s Justice Ministry in the Gaza Strip.
- Mahmoud Abu Watfeh, who held the rank of major-general and served as the director general of Hamas’s Interior Ministry in Gaza (the commander of Hamas’s security services).
- Hamas politburo member Abu Obaida Al Jimasi, was a Hamas leader who oversaw the administration of the southern Gaza Strip. He had not been seen in public since July 2023.
The Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry has that said that 326 Palestinians have been killed in the strikes.
Hamas said that Israel would bear “full responsibility for the repercussions of its treacherous aggression in Gaza,” which it said has “exposed the hostages in Gaza to an unknown fate. We hold the criminal Netanyahu and the Nazi Zionist occupation fully responsible for the consequences of the treacherous aggression against Gaza and the defenceless civilians.”
The attack was approved yesterday at a security consultation attended by Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defence Minister Katz, Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer, Chief of Staff Zamir, GSS Director Bar, the director of the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate, and other high-ranking officials.
According to reports, all of them unanimously supported the attack after the hostage release negotiations reached an impasse.
The preemptive offensive plan was kept in closed circles in the IDF to create an element of surprise and deception.
White House Press Secretary Leavitt said that the Trump administration was consulted by the Israelis prior to the strikes. “As President Trump has made clear, Hamas, the Houthis, Iran – all those who seek to terrorise not just Israel but the US – will see a price to pay, and all hell will break loose.”
Leavitt added: “The Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran and Iranian backed terror proxies should take President Trump very seriously when he says he’s not afraid to stand for law-abiding people and stand up for the US and our friend and ally Israel.”
The hostage family forum has expressed its concern that the offensive could endanger the lives of the remaining hostages in Gaza and have demanded a meeting with the prime minister, the defence minister and the head of the negotiating team “in which [the officials] will clarify how they can guarantee that hostages won’t be affected by the military pressure and how they are planning to get them home.”
This morning, the head of the Arabic-language IDF Spokesperson Unit issued a statement calling on residents of the eastern Gaza Strip in areas adjacent to the Israeli border to leave their homes and head westward.

Context: The offensive comes against the background of negotiations that took place in Qatar last week between a delegation from Israel and the Egyptian, Jordanian, Qatari, and UAE foreign ministers, in which the parties reportedly discussed a version of the ‘Witkoff Plan’.

This plan included:
- Hamas releasing ten hostages (presumably all will be alive).
- In exchange, Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners (at a higher ratio than earlier deals) including convicted terrorists serving long sentences.
- Israel will resume the entrance of humanitarian aid and amenities, potentially at a greater volume than before.
- The ceasefire will be extended for a couple of months that will include Passover and Israel’s Independence Day (1^st May).
However, little to no progress has been made on this proposal.
It also comes against the background of the IDF detecting an irregular development in the Gaza Strip in recent days, which might point to Hamas preparations either to launch an attack or to raid Israeli territory. Over the last few weeks, the IDF has tracked preparations being made by Hamas and others for a resumption of hostilities in Gaza Strip. This included the recruitment of hundreds of new terrorists, the distribution of arms and repairs that were made to the command-and-control mechanisms in Hamas’s various battalions.
Despite the tension between the prime minister and Shin Bet Director Bar (Netanyahu has announced his intention to fire Bar) the latter was present alongside the Chief of Staff during the operation.
The renewed strikes take place in a different context to the past war against Hamas: Hezbollah has been decimated in the north, which allows the IDF greater capacity to focus its forces on Gaza; and the Trump administration will likely give the IDF more leeway than did the Biden administration.

Looking ahead: It remains to be seen whether the operation will expand to ground troops reentering Gaza.

If Israel were to re-take Gaza, it may adopt a different approach to the delivery of humanitarian aid. The new IDF Chief of Staff, Zamir, has proposed that the IDF will take over the delivery of aid to Gazans as the only way to ensure Hamas does not profit from the aid. The previous chief of staff was reluctant to take this on, out of concern that it be perceived as military responsibility for the civilian population.

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