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Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Key background
  • Hamas is an Islamist Palestinian nationalist movement which currently governs the Gaza Strip. It is proscribed by the UK and in the majority of western countries.
  • Its primary state backers are Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. It is also active in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon.
  • Since seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has continuously launched attacks against Israel and weaponised civilian infrastructure by embedding itself into schools, mosques, and hospitals.
  • Hamas’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel killed 1200, and over 250 hostages were subsequently taken to the Gaza Strip.

Updated May 23, 2024

Hope for renewal of hostage negotiations, as video released

Hostage video: A short video was released yesterday showing the kidnap of five female IDF spotters from the Nahal Oz base on October 7th.

  • The footage of the abduction of Liri Albag, Karina Ariev, Agam Berger, Daniella Gilboa, and Naama Levy was shown under the auspices of the Hostages and Missing Families Forum and with the permission of each of the women’s families.
  • The footage shows the five in clear distress, and some of them bloodied. Terrorist captors are heard saying “our brothers died because of you. We will shoot you all.”
  • The Forum described its content as a “damning testament to the nation’s failure to bring home the hostages… The Israeli government must not waste even one more moment – it must return to the negotiating table today!”
  • Liri Albag’s father Eli, speaking after the video was screened, said “I want you to broadcast this footage every day at the start of the news… until somebody wakes up.”
  • “If this film doesn’t change the thinking, this is the last bullet we have, to tell them. What else do you want? What else can we do? If that doesn’t influence them…”
  • President Herzog said “the world must look at this cruel atrocity. Those who care about women’s rights must speak out. All those who believe in freedom must speak out, and do everything possible to bring all of the hostages home now.”
  • In further efforts to reach a hostage/ceasefire deal, the war cabinet has unanimously approved a mandate for Israel’s negotiating team to return to negotiations with Hamas. Hostage Coordinator Maj. Gen. (res.) Nitzan Alon is said to have drafted new negotiations terms, in a bid to bridge the gaps between Hamas’s demands and previous Israeli proposals. The government insists that any deal stop short of a firm commitment to end the war.

Context: The comments from family members indicate that the timing of the footage’s release is based on a desire to put pressure on the political echelon to secure the release of the remaining hostages.

  • Hostage families have been active in widespread protests urging the government to reach a deal with Hamas, even at the cost of ending the war.
  • Channel 12 reports that Defence Minister Gallant first showed the video to all war cabinet members in March. Once hostage negotiations stalled, the families asked that the footage be shown to all members of the wider security cabinet, too.
  • The channel reports that Cabinet Secretary Tzahi Braverman refused to allow the video to be shown in the security cabinet meeting room, citing technical reasons, and that only five security cabinet ministers chose to watch at their own initiative: Miri Regev, Gila Gamliel, Itamar Ben Gvir, Chili Tropper and Yisrael Katz.
  • Earlier this month, negotiations fell apart due to Hamas intransigence, including:
    • Its insistence on ending the war completely, which would perpetuate Hamas rule.
    • Its failure to confirm how many of the hostages were still alive, and whether Israel was negotiating for live captives or dead bodies.
    • Its insistence on being able to chose which Palestinian prisoners were to be released, without an Israeli veto.
    • The sequencing and length of a ceasefire, and at which stage hostages would be released.
  • Israel has previously released a 47-minute video of the October 7th massacres based on Hamas bodycam and cctv footage. Due to the horrific nature of the footage, it has restricted viewings to private audiences. Netanyahu is thought to be considering releasing a shortened version to a wider audience, in a bid to remind international audiences why this war began, and the brutal nature of Hamas.

Context of recognition: Israel has responded angrily to the decision of Ireland, Spain, and Norway to formally recognise a Palestinian state.

  • In response, Israeli Foreign Minister Katz said recognition “sent messages to the Palestinians and to the entire world: terror pays… After Hamas carried out the biggest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust; after it committed horrific sex crimes that the world has seen, these countries have chosen to reward Hamas and Iran and recognize the Palestinian state. Israel will not take this lying down.”
  • The position of the UK and US has traditionally been that recognition should come not before, but as a result of, bilateral negotiations between the two sides aimed at ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
  • The Israeli view remains that, absent such a successful negotiation, and until the Palestinian national movement moves to explicitly recognise the right of Israel to exist as a Jewish state, recognition is both premature and a reward for terror and incitement.
  • The disparity of statements from European capitals changing nothing on the ground, could serve to foster further resentment and violence when Palestinians realise that recognition is not leading to a political process.
  • In recent months, with Israel’s consent Norway has served as a conduit through which Israel has transferred some of the tax revenues it collects on behalf of the Palestinian Authority (PA) –  about NIS 200-250 million (£42.8-53.5 million) per month. In the wake of Norwegian recognition, Finance Minister Smotrich said he would cease transferring the funds.
  • By moving to recognise, he said, “Norway… cannot be a partner to anything related to Judea and Samaria. I plan to halt money transfers to it and to demand all the money that has been transferred [so far] to be returned.”
  • If the Norwegian route is closed, the US will be keen to find an alternative arrangement to ensure that the PA does not collapse.

Gaza Strip: The IDF last night announced the deaths of three IDF soldiers killed in action in the northern Strip, while the IAF hit roughly 130 targets yesterday, including terrorist cells, military structures, observation posts, and additional terrorist infrastructure.

  • The IDF also reported that in Nuseirat, “following IDF and ISA intelligence, the IAF carried out a precise strike on a compound located inside an UNRWA school where Hamas terrorists –  including an anti-tank missile operative and a Nukhba terrorist – were operating.”
  • “The compound that was struck also contained weapons, including mortars and explosives, as evidenced by the numerous secondary explosions after the strike. The strike was carefully planned and carried out using precise munitions to mitigate any harm to civilians in the area.”
  • In Rafah, says the IDF, “soldiers located and destroyed multi-barrel rocket launchers that were ready to fire toward Israeli territory. The launch sites were located in eastern Rafah along the Philadelphi Corridor.”
  • “The troops are currently operating based on information regarding terror targets in the areas of ‘Brazil’ and ‘Shaboura’, while making every effort to prevent harm to civilians and after the civilian population in the area was evacuated. The activity began with a preliminary series of aerial strikes against Hamas terror targets in Rafah.”
  • In Jabaliya, in the northern Strip, the IDF continues close-quarters combat and yesterday eliminated a number of terror targets.
  • Also in the northern Strip, the past few days have seen targeted raids in the area of Beit Hanoun, designed to “eliminate terrorists, locate and strike terror infrastructure, below and above the ground.” It was in these operations that the three IDF troops fell.

Context: The IDF has found multiple instances of Hamas using UNRWA facilities for terrorist purposes. Only last week, 15 Hamas fighters were killed in another Israeli strike on a UNRWA school, also in Nuseirat.

  • The IDF continues to operate at various points across the Strip. Its return to areas vacated previously indicates the extent to which Hamas and other terror organisation remain able to regroup and continue to pose a threat.
  • Defence Minister Gallant continues to press the case for an Israeli vision for a post-Hamas Gaza. On a visit to Jabaliya yesterday, he told troops: “Your job is to strike at Hamas and to kill the terrorists. Our job is to reach a situation in which we replace the Hamas regime. While you are fighting and are doing your job, we will bring about us replacing the Hamas regime and finding it an alternative that isn’t Hamas.”

Looking ahead: Other countries may also recognise a Palestinian state, possibly including Malta, Slovenia, and Belgium.

  • Qatari media claims that Egyptian officials have made contact with both Israel and Hamas in a bid to restart negotiations.

May 22, 2024

Israel continues Rafah operation with US understanding

What’s happened: Israel is continuing its operations in Hamas’s last stronghold in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, and at a scale with which the Biden Administration, previously opposed to any operation there, is satisfied.

  • Israeli media reports US officials saying that Israel has listened to US concerns and refined its plans accordingly.
  • The IDF is reporting that almost a million of the estimated 1.4 million Gazans previously residing in the city have left for other parts of the Strip.
  • According to Palestinian sources, the IDF this morning dropped flyers over Rafah announcing the expansion of safe zones to which displaced persons can move. Many residents have moved north to tent cities which have been erected in Khan Yunis and Al Mawasi.
  • According to the IDF, in Rafah troops continue to “carry out targeted raids on the terrorist infrastructure and buildings from which Hamas terrorists fired at our forces. During this activity, the soldiers eliminated dozens of terrorists in eastern Rafah who tried to approach our forces.”
  • IDF troops “carried out an operation to destroy terrorist infrastructure. During the operation, the soldiers searched a building and located many weapons including protective equipment, explosives, weapons, anti-tank missiles, equipment and tools intended for breaching fences.”
  • “During searches in the area, the soldiers of the battalion located a tunnel shaft containing a weapons warehouse with short-range anti-tank missiles, grenades, weapons, and explosives. This warehouse was intended to be used to carry out terrorist attacks against our forces. The tunnel shaft and the weapons were destroyed.”
  • On a visit to Jabaliya, a city in the northern Strip which the IDF had previously left but to which it has now returned, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi said “we are dismantling the military wing of Hamas. We want to bring our hostages home alive, and we want to bring those who, unfortunately, are no longer alive back for burial in Israel. These are very, very important missions. The message is that even if there was a place we didn’t reach last time, and now we are reaching it, no place, no matter how many explosives they put in the walls and how many shafts they booby-trapped, no place will withstand an offensive by an IDF combat team.”
  • In Jabaliya, the IDF says that raids were carried out on terrorist infrastructure in the agricultural areas. “During the raids, the soldiers located many weapons including vests, an FN MAG machine gun, hand grenades, explosives, and intelligence materials. During extensive searches and guided by intelligence, the troops arrived at a mosque where they located missiles and rocket launchers, which were destroyed.”
  • In Khan Yunis, the Israeli Air Force struck and killed Hamas terrorist Ahmed Yasser Alkara. Alkara took part in the October 7th Massacre in communities in southern Israel and was said by the IDF to be “a significant anti-tank missile operative who carried out attacks on IDF troops during the war.” The IDF says that this operation was delayed when a child was observed near Alkara’s position, and only resumed once the child had moved away.
  • In another operation, says the IDF, “IAF fighter jets directed by intelligence eliminated five Hamas terrorists operating from inside the Faami Aljerjawi School in Daraj Tuffah in the northern Gaza Strip. Among the terrorists that were eliminated were Fadi Salim, Head of Propaganda in Hamas’ Gaza Brigade, as well as three Hamas intelligence operatives and an additional Nukhba terrorist.”
  • Meanwhile, COGAT says that Israel’s facilitation of the entry of into the Strip continues. The IDF says that 450 trucks were transferred through the Kerem Shalom Crossing and the Erez West Crossing yesterday, with 650 truckloads waiting for collection and distribution by international aid agencies on the Gazan side of the crossings.

Context: The US had previously referred to an Israeli operation in Rafah as a “red line”. However, the thus far limited – what the IDF calls “precise” – operations in the city appear to have assuaged the Biden Administration’s concerns, to a degree.

  • US reassessment is thought be based on the movement out of civilians and the increased flow of .
  • Israel continues to stress that victory in its war with Hamas depends upon defeating its remaining battalions in Rafah, capturing its senior leadership, and securing the border crossing to prevent the smuggling of weapons.
  • A high priority also remains the recovery of the remaining hostages, many of whom are thought to be held in Rafah. The government’s hope remains that pressure exerted on Hamas by the Rafah operation also makes a hostage deal more likely.
  • In order to achieve this, the IDF is currently deploying its highest number of troops across Gaza since January.
  • Humanitarian agencies continue to warn of the critical shortage of aid reaching the Gaza population.
  • The IDF cites failures within Gaza itself as being the cause. Aid, it says, is “awaiting distribution due to the lack of logistical capabilities and manpower gaps in the international aid agencies, leading to the accumulation of humanitarian aid at the crossings.”
  • A senior White House official yesterday criticised Egypt for obstructions on its end. “We do not believe that aid should be held back for any reason whatsoever. Kerem Shalom is open. The Israelis have it open. And that aid should be going through Kerem Shalom,” they said.
  • The Egyptians closed the crossing to aid earlier this month after Israel began operating in Rafah and assumed control of the Gazan side of the crossing.
  • The Israeli government also says that Hamas is disrupting the effective distribution of aid, either siphoning supplies off for themselves or in one instance detaining and holding Jordanian trucks. In the absence of non-Hamas affiliated Palestinian partners, aid distribution challenges are likely to continue.
  • Far-right members of the Israeli cabinet and Security Cabinet have made no secret of their desire to see Israeli civilian resettlement in Gaza.
  • Any such move is forcefully opposed by more moderate government voices. Last week, Defence Minister Gallant attempted to rule out not only civilian resettlement, but any post-war Israeli administration of the Strip whatsoever.
  • Gallant said he would not serve in a government which sought to impose Israeli rule and called on Netanyahu to move swiftly to a plan for a post-war Palestinian administration.

Looking ahead: Footage will be released later of the October 7th kidnapping of five female IDF spotters from the Nahal Oz base. The families of all five have agreed to the screening.

  • Prime Minister Netanyahu has ruled out Israeli resettlement of Gaza. Such a move was “never in the cards,” Netanyahu claimed to CNN, “and I said so openly. Some of my constituents are not happy about it, but that’s my position.”
  • Instead, Netanyahu called for “sustained demilitarisation of Gaza,” “a civilian administration that is run by Gazans who are neither Hamas nor committed to our destruction,” and “a reconstruction of Gaza, if possible, done by the moderate Arab states and the international community.”
  • The prime minister also once more moved to rule out the formal involvement of the Palestinian Authority (PA) as the future governing force in the Strip. Despite others’ pushing for this, he said he would not allow an organisation to assume control which “still teaches its children to seek the destruction of Israel. That’s not my position. I want a different future for Israelis and Palestinians alike.”
  • Despite US efforts, moves towards normalisation with Saudi Arabia appear to have stalled, with Netanyahu seemingly unwilling to meet Saudi demands over the creation of a Palestinian state.

May 21, 2024

US and UK oppose International Criminal Court arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant

What’s happened: The prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) yesterday applied for an arrest warrant for Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gallant relating to alleged crimes committed in the prosecution of Israel’s war in Gaza.

  • Karim Khan, the British prosecutor, accused the two Israelis of “causing extermination, causing starvation as a method of war including the denial of humanitarian relief supplies, [and] deliberately targeting civilians in conflict.”
  • “We submit that the crimes against humanity charged were committed as part of a widespread and systematic attack against the Palestinian civilian population pursuant to State policy. These crimes, in our assessment, continue to this day.”
  • Khan also issued warrants for Hamas’s two most senior Gazan leaders, Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif, and its foreign leader Ismail Haniyeh. The three are sought for overseeing extermination, murder, hostage-taking, rape, and sexual assault.
  • “We submit that the crimes against humanity charged were part of a widespread and systematic attack against the civilian population of Israel by Hamas and other armed groups pursuant to organisational policies,” Khan said.
  • Reaction from across the Israeli political spectrum was near-uniformly angry and incredulous.
  • Netanyahu said: “The absurd and mendacious order by the prosecutor in The Hague isn’t directed only against the Israeli prime minister and the defence minister. It is directed against the State of Israel in its entirety… With what insolence do you dare to compare Hamas’s monsters with the soldiers of the IDF, the most moral army in the world?”
  • War Cabinet Minister Gantz called Khan’s request “a crime of historic proportions.” “The State of Israel,” he said, “is waging one of the just wars fought in modern history following a reprehensible massacre perpetrated by terrorist Hamas on the 7th of October.”
  • “While Israel fights with one of the strictest moral codes in history, while complying with international law and boasting a robust independent judiciary, drawing parallels between the leaders of a democratic country determined to defend itself from despicable terror to leaders of a bloodthirsty terror organisation is a deep distortion of justice and blatant moral bankruptcy.”
  • Opposition Leader Lapid also condemned the decision, saying “it is not possible to issue arrest warrants against Netanyahu, Sinwar and Deif. There is no such comparison, we cannot accept it and it is unforgivable,” he said, before calling the decision “a terrible political failure.”
  • President Herzog said, “the announcement of the prosecutor at the ICC is beyond outrageous, and shows the extent to which the international judicial system is in danger of collapsing.”
  • “Taken in bad faith, this one-sided move represents a unilateral political step that emboldens terrorists around the world, and violates all the basic rules of the court according to the principle of complementarity and other legal norms.”
  • President Biden also responded angrily. “The ICC prosecutor’s application for arrest warrants against Israeli leaders is outrageous,” he said. “And let me be clear: whatever this prosecutor might imply, there is no equivalence—none—between Israel and Hamas. We will always stand with Israel against threats to its security.”
  • Secretary of State Blinken, similarly, said “we reject the prosecutor’s equivalence of Israel with Hamas. It is shameful. Hamas is a brutal terrorist organisation that carried out the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust and is still holding dozens of innocent people hostage, including Americans.”
  • Blinken added there were “deeply troubling process questions” surrounding the announcement. “Despite not being a member of the court, Israel was prepared to cooperate with the prosecutor. In fact, the prosecutor himself was scheduled to visit Israel as early as next week to discuss the investigation and hear from the Israeli government. The prosecutor’s staff was supposed to land in Israel today to coordinate the visit.”
  • “Israel was informed that they did not board their flight around the same time that the prosecutor went on cable television to announce the charges. These and other circumstances call into question the legitimacy and credibility of this investigation.”
  • Prime Minister Sunak’s office criticised the deicsion, while the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office also hit out at the warrants, saying “we don’t believe that seeking warrants will help get hostages out, get aid in, or deliver a sustainable ceasefire. This remains the UK’s priority… As we have said from the outset, we do not think the ICC has jurisdiction in this case.”
  • Deputy foreign minister Andrew Mitchell told Parliament that “the fact that the prosecutor has applied for arrest warrants to be issued does not directly impact, for example, on UK licensing decisions, but we will continue to monitor developments.”
  • The German and Czech governments also spoke out against the warrant requests.

Context: Israeli officials have never before been issued with warrants from the ICC. Similarly, experts noted that this was the first time in its 21 years that the Court has sought to indict “Western” leaders.

  • Israel is not among the 124 state signatories to the Rome Statute, which outlines the ICC’s jurisdiction, and therefore its writ and jurisdiction do not run to Israel itself.
  • Nor can Netanyahu or Gallant face arrest when travelling in other countries not subject to the writ of the ICC, such as the US. Many of Israel’s European allies, however, including the UK, are subject to the court’s authority, meaning that they could face arrest if travelling there.
  • The UK has joined the US in rejecting the jurisdiction of the court to consider Israeli conduct in the war due to its not being a member.
  • In his remarks, Blinken also argued that the move was premature, with the court supposed to intervene only when domestic courts have failed to do so. “The ICC was established by its state parties as a court of limited jurisdiction,” he said. “Those limits are rooted in principles of complementarity, which do not appear to have been applied here amid the prosecutor’s rush to seek these arrest warrants rather than allowing the Israeli legal system a full and timely opportunity to proceed.”
  • “In other situations, the prosecutor deferred to national investigations and worked with states to allow them time to investigate. The prosecutor did not afford the same opportunity to Israel, which has ongoing investigations into allegations against its personnel.”
  • One of the arguments made against last year’s government programme of judicial reform was that the strength of the Israeli system’s independence represented an important bulwark against the intervention of international courts.
  • From Khan’s remarks when announcing the warrant applications, it seems that the alleged denial or hampering of to Gaza would form a cornerstone of any case. He called on Israel to “immediately allow access to in Gaza at scale.”
  • Israel has long denied that it is a blockage to sufficient aid reaching Gaza, and that Hamas looting and international failure are the true cause of privation.
  • Prior to his appointment as ICC prosecutor, Khan served as a defence attorney, representing clients including Liberian dictator Charles Taylor and the son of Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi.
  • Khan reportedly relied here upon expert advice from a panel of international legal experts, including American-Israeli scholar Theodor Meron, a Holocaust survivor who once served as legal counsel to Israel’s Foreign Ministry and as Israeli ambassador to Canada. The panel is said to have agreed with Khan’s view unanimously.
  • Prior to October 7th and the launching of Israel’s response in Gaza, the ICC was already investigating the conduct of both sides in 2014’s Israel-Hamas war (Operation Protective Edge).

Looking ahead: Khan’s warrants will now be considered by a three-judge ICC panel in ICC Pre-Trial Chamber I: Presiding Judge Iulia Motoc (Romania); Reine Alapini-Gansou (Benin) and Socorro Flores Liera (Mexico).

  • It is rare for this pre-trial process to reverse the recommendation of the prosecutor. In only two of the 31 cases currently before the court has it failed to confirm warrants.
  • In response to the announcement, the senior leadership of the National Security Council, the Justice Ministry, the chief military prosecutor and the Foreign Ministry all began deliberations on its impact and how to respond. Israeli officials will now decide whether or not to cooperate with the process.

May 17, 2024

Israel-UK-US expand delivery of aid to Gaza

What’s happened: The UK has announced that its first maritime aid delivery for the Gaza Strip has set sail from Larnaca, Cyprus.

  • Comprising approximately 100 tones of shelter coverage kits for Gazan displaced persons, it will be delivered to the US-built temporary pier off the coast of Gaza City.
  • Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said: “The UK has been working around the clock with our allies and partners to ensure more aid gets into Gaza via all possible routes – land, air and sea. We are leading international efforts with the US and Cyprus to establish a maritime aid corridor. Today’s first shipment of British aid from Cyprus to the temporary pier off Gaza is an important moment in increasing this flow.”
  • The Royal Fleet Auxiliary’s vessel, Cardigan Bay, has supported the pier’s construction by housing hundreds of American soldiers and sailors who were involved in building it.
  • First proposed in March, the US Navy and Army have now finished building a temporary pier which will facilitate the maritime delivery of to the Gaza Strip. Initially, it will have the capacity to deliver 90 truckloads of aid a day, rising to 150. Aid agencies will oversee local distribution, and the US government has confirmed that none of its troops will be present in the Gaza Strip.
  • The IDF confirmed its involvement in aiding in the pier’s construction, saying that “preparations were carried out over the last few weeks by the Engineering and Construction Department of the Ministry of Defense, the IDF, the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories and in cooperation with the U.S. Military.”
  • The new maritime delivery corridor will complement overland aid delivery efforts which remain critical. Israel continues to facilitate these efforts and has opened additional inspection routes in the West Bank to increase the rate at which aid trucks can be searched before travelling to the Gaza Strip.
  • This week’s shipments contained tents for civilians temporarily evacuating from Rafah, 38 trucks of flour, and 76,000 litres of fuel.
  • On Thursday, according to the IDF, “365 trucks entered the Gaza Strip through the Kerem Shalom Crossing operated by the Ministry of Defence’s Land Crossings Authority, as well as the Erez Crossing, following thorough security checks.”
  • Elsewhere, another overland crossing from Israel into the Gaza Strip has been opened at Zikim. It will primarily facilitate the entry of trucks carrying aid from Ashdod Port once they have undergone security checks on the Israeli side of the border.
  • Further, according to the IDF, the Tarqumiyah and Beitunia crossings in The West Bank were opened “for the first time since the beginning of the war in order to expand the inspection routes of trucks going to the Gaza Strip, as part of efforts to increase the rate of inspection of aid.”
  • Far-right Israeli activists are continuing their efforts to disrupt the overland passage of aid through Israel into the Gaza Strip, especially in the West Bank. On Wednesday, it was reported that a commercial truck was mistakenly identified as being part of an aid convoy and attacked by extremist activists who were arrested at the scene. These efforts are being coordinated by a group called “Tzav 9”, and non-violent protestors continue to demonstrate against the delivery of aid to the Gaza Strip as long as Hamas still holds Israeli hostages.

Context: Israel is now fully engaged in facilitating aid to the civilian population, whilst determined in its continued fight against Hamas.

  • At the first stage of the operation in Rafah, Israel sent messages encouraging the civilian population to move through the humanitarian corridor into safe zones.
  • Prior to the operation, an estimated 1.4 million Palestinians were sheltering in Rafah, many of whom had fled fighting in the north and centre of the Gaza Strip. The IDF estimates that 700,000 Gazans have so far left through corridors.
  • The UK sees itself as having played a critical role in facilitating the maritime corridor between Cyprus and the Gaza Strip, and will continue doing so as long it operates. It will also continue its efforts to “unlock more [land] routes to get vital aid in”.
  • Israel has evacuated the eastern third of Rafah, and as these efforts expand to the rest of the city it is almost certain hundreds of thousands of its residents will travel north to tent cities which have been erected in Khan Yunis and Al Mawasi.
  • Prior to the operation, Israel oversaw the construction of tens of thousands of temporary shelters. This latest UK shipment supports those efforts.
  • While Israel continues to facilitate the entry of aid into the Gaza Strip, internal distribution challenges remain the primary obstacle to ensuring it reaches those in need.
  • The Israeli government also claims that Hamas are disrupting the effective distribution of aid, either siphoning supplies off for themselves or in one instance detaining and holding Jordanian trucks. In the absence of non-Hamas affiliated Palestinian partners, aid distribution challenges are likely to continue.
  • Although aid is meant to be distributed for free, according to veteran commentator Ehud Yaari, talking on Channel 12 News, Hamas has earned half a billion dollars from exploiting the aid since the beginning of the conflict.
  • The resumption of commercial haulage to Gaza is significant. Limited commercial trucks, primarily Gazan businessmen, have only been recently reintroduced, stopped since October 7th. As of Wednesday, 52 had travelled into the Gaza Strip.

Looking ahead: The UK Government said its aid would be distributed in Gaza “as soon as feasible.”

  • Sunak said of aid that “we know that more is required, particularly via land, which is why alongside intensive work to get hostages out of Gaza we will continue efforts to unlock more routes to get vital aid in – helping people in desperate need.”
  • On an aerial tour of Gaza and in meetings with divisions active in Rafah yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu affirmed Israel’s commitment to continuing to operate in the city. “The battle in Rafah is critical,” he said. “It is not only the remaining battalions there but their escape and supply pipelines.”

May 16, 2024

Defence Minister Gallant voices concerns for the ‘day after’ in the Gaza Strip

What’s happened: Israel’s Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant, yesterday gave a surprising statement yesterday declaring that he would not continue in office were Israel to govern the Gaza Strip after the war.

  • Gallant called instead for Palestinian control of the Strip with international assistance, and hit out at Prime Minister Netanyahu for not announcing a plan for the ‘day after’.
  • “We must dismantle Hamas’ governing capabilities in Gaza,” Gallant said. “The key to this goal is military action, and the establishment of a governing alternative in Gaza. In the absence of such an alternative, only two negative options remain: Hamas’ rule in Gaza, or Israeli military rule in Gaza.”
  • “The meaning of indecision is choosing one of the negative options – it would erode our military achievements, lessen the pressure on Hamas, and sabotage the chances of achieving a framework for the release of hostages.”
  • “Since October, I have been raising this issue consistently in the Cabinet, and have received no response. The end of the military campaign must come together with political action.  The ‘day after Hamas’ will only be achieved with Palestinian entities taking control of Gaza, accompanied by international actors, establishing a governing alternative to Hamas’ rule. This, above all, is an interest of the State of Israel.”
  • “Unfortunately, this issue was not raised for debate and worse, an alternative was not raised in its replacement… I must reiterate – I will not agree to the establishment of Israeli military rule in Gaza. Israel must not establish [its own] civilian rule in Gaza.”
  • “I call on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make a decision and declare that Israel will not establish civilian control over the Gaza strip, that Israel will not establish military governance in the Gaza strip, and that a governing alternative to Hamas in the Gaza strip will be raised immediately.”
  • Gallant’s statement drew an instant public rebuttal from the prime minister, as well as angry denunciations from far-right cabinet colleagues, some of whom demanded that Netanyahu fire Gallant.
  • Gallant was supported by fellow War Cabinet Minister Gantz and his National Unity Party.
  • In an interview with US network CNBC yesterday, Netanyahu did address a post-Hamas Gaza Strip, saying “What do you need then to reconstruct Gaza to have a different future so Gaza doesn’t pose a threat to Israel anymore? You need to have three things. One, sustained demilitarisation and that I think, can only be done by Israel intervening when it can when it sees another terrorist resurgence. The second thing you need is a civilian administration that is not Hamas and not beholden to the destruction of Israel. And I think that could be done with the assistance of Arab countries and the international community. And the third thing you need is reconstruction. That I think can be done with the help of important players in the international community… But you’ve got to clear Gaza of Hamas… What I’d like to see is a non-Hamas civilian administration with an Israeli military responsibility, overall military responsibility.”
  • Meanwhile, in Gaza, five Israeli soldiers were killed and another seven wounded in a tragic incident of friendly fire in northern Gaza’s Jabaliya yesterday. Initial IDF investigations indicate that a tank fired two shells at a building in which the soldiers were present.
  • This follows the announcement yesterday that a first solider had died in Israel’s operation in the southern town of Rafah, Hamas’s final stronghold in the Gaza Strip.
  • The IDF continues its precision operations in Rafah, from where a projectile was fired at the Kerem Shalom crossing yesterday, landing in an open area.
  • Elsewhere in the Strip, the IDF has finished its operations in Zeitoun. The IDF said it had “eliminated dozens of terrorists in encounters and airstrikes, destroyed terrorist infrastructure and located many weapons, including dozens of AK-47s, grenades, magazines and intelligence management assets of the Hamas terrorist organisation.”
  • In the north, meanwhile, Hezbollah continued to launch multiple attacks on northern Israel yesterday, with the IDF confirming that a sensitive military facility in the Lower Galilee was hit with an explosive drone last night.
  • In response, the IDF hit back at Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, including some in the north-east of the country.

Context: Gallant’s comments lay bare the divisions within the senior Israeli leadership over the future of Gaza’s post-war governance.

  • A senior US official said last night that Gallant’s statement also reflected the Biden Administration’s position.
  • The US has, for some time, called for Palestinian control of the Gaza Strip post-Hamas, and has expressed frustration with the Israeli Government for its refusal to present a clear ‘day after’ policy reflecting this. It’s own preference has been for a reformed Palestinian Authority (PA) to assume control. (For analysis of the government’s limited ‘day after’ plan, as well as more detailed proposals from Israeli experts, see BICOM’s recent research paper.)
  • Earlier in the day, US Secretary of State Blinken, speaking in Kiev, had said “we do not support and will not support an Israeli occupation. We also of course, do not support Hamas governance in Gaza … We’ve seen where that’s led all too many times for the people of Gaza and for Israel. And we also can’t have anarchy and a vacuum that’s likely to be filled by chaos.”
  • It is not only US support which depends, seemingly, on Israeli support for a Palestinian administration in Gaza. Current and putative Arab allies, like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, are also said to be unwilling to assist with the reconstruction of the Strip unless it is in cooperation with a Palestinian authority.
  • Egypt, the UAE, and Morocco are said to be considering a US proposal to contribute to a peacekeeping force in Gaza aimed at ensuring that Hamas does not return in the event of its defeat. All three, however, are said to be conditioning their participation on US recognition of a Palestinian state.
  • Netanyahu has consistently ruled out replacing ‘Hamastan” with “Fatahstan” (a reference to Fatah, the PA’s dominant faction). Gallant’s remarks constitute the most direct challenge from within the government to the prime minister since October 7th, and came only hours after Netanyahu had said publicly that discussions of the day after where premature.
  • In response to Gallant, Netanyahu then said: “After the terrible massacre of October 7, I instructed to destroy Hamas. IDF fighters and the security branches are fighting for this. As long as Hamas remains in place, nobody else will enter to run Gaza’s civilian affairs. Certainly not the Palestinian Authority.”
  • Netanyahu’s long-standing principled rejection of the PA is based on three main concerns:
    • Its consistent policy of ‘pay for slay’, which sees Palestinian terrorists in Israeli prisons paid commensurate with the amount of Jews they have killed.
    • Incessant incitement and antisemitic content in Palestinian media and school curricula.
    • ‘Lawfare’ seeking to delegitimise Israel in international institutions, which does nothing poster peace and understanding.
  • Gallant’s frustrations, as implied by his own words, also echo those of the military establishment, which has for months been angered by the lack of a credible post-war plan. Last weekend, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi is said to have rounded on Netanyahu in a meeting on similar lines.
  • Netanyahu is thus caught between the military, along with the more sober, centrist members of the war and security cabinets, who agree with the US line that Israel should have neither a military nor civilian presence in a post-war Strip, and more hard-line right-wing elements of the government who argue not only against Palestinian governance post-war, but in favour of Israeli re-settlement of the Strip.
  • Israeli reports suggest that the timing of Gallant’s remarks was partly due to fears that these right-wing ministers were exerting pressure on Netanyahu to move for the establishment of a military government in Gaza imminently.
  • This latest episode is another illustration of the unwieldy nature of Netanyahu’s coalition, and his need to balance often wildly divergent internal opinion. Gallant is a member of Netanyahu’s own Likud party, making the criticism even more pointed.
  • This is not the first time that Netanyahu and Gallant have clashed. In March 2023, at the height of protests over the government’s judicial reform programme, Gallant was briefly fired by Netanyahu before being swiftly reinstated.
  • Hezbollah’s attack in the Lower Galilee represents the latest sign of the escalation of the conflict on Israel’s northern front. An attack on a site 35 kilometres from the Lebanese border, and on an installation which is designed to spot aerial threats from long ranges represents Hezbollah striking deeper into Israel on a sensitive site.
  • As well as this incident of long-range fire, short-range fire persists, with over 40 rockets fired at the northern Golan this morning.

Looking ahead: Conversations are expected to take place in Cairo between senior Israeli intelligence officials and Egyptian counterparts, in an effort to reduce tensions with Egypt over the Rafah Crossing and Israel’s operation in the city.

  • The IDF has sent an additional commando brigade to Rafah, in anticipation of continued or expanded operations there

May 15, 2024

Continued fighting across Gaza, with two further cases of UNRWA being compromised

Gaza Strip: The precision operation in Eastern Rafah has been extended into three more neighbourhoods, with the IDF claiming to have killed around 100 terrorists.

  • This morning, the IDF announced the death of Sgt. Ira Yair Gispan, a 19 year-old resident of Petah Tikva, who was killed in action, the first Israeli fatality in the Rafah operation.
  • There have been two further examples of Hamas operating in close proximity to the UN.
  • During IDF operational activity in eastern Rafah on Saturday, terrorists were identified in UNRWA’s central logistics compound alongside UN vehicles. The IDF released footage  of armed terrorists next to UN vehicles and in the area of UNRWA’s logistics warehouse compound in eastern Rafah.
  • This is a central point for UNRWA’s distribution of aid.
  • IDF Spokesperson, Rear Admiral Hagari said, “Today, we revealed unusual footage of armed terrorists next to UN vehicles, which we located a few days ago, and shooting inside an UNRWA compound in eastern Rafah. We forwarded the findings to senior members of the international community, and called on the UN to urgently investigate the connection between UNRWA’s logistics centres to Hamas operatives by their vehicles.”
  • In a second incident in Nuseirat yesterday, a joint IDF and Shin Bet announcement noted, “a Hamas war room embedded inside an UNRWA school used by Hamas commanders was targeted in a precise strike by the IDF and ISA; Over 10 Hamas terrorists were eliminated in the strike.”
  • Adding, “the war room was used by terrorist operatives in Hamas’ military wing. The strike was carried out using precise munitions in order to minimise harm to uninvolved civilians. The Hamas war room had been used by the terrorist organization to plan multiple attacks against IDF troops in central Gaza in recent weeks. The Nukhba terrorists situated inside the war room took part in the October 7th Massacre and carried out ambushes and attacks on IDF troops in the Gaza Strip. In the IAF strike, approximately 15 operatives from terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip were eliminated, more than 10 of which were part of Hamas.
  • In addition, several other soldiers sustained  injuries fighting Hamas terrorists elsewhere in the Strip.
  • The IDF have killed several terrorists in face-to-face fighting. They also found, confiscated and destroyed rocket launchers and other weapons.
  • Despite IDF operations, five rockets were fired at Sderot, Ibim and Nir Am yesterday. Three of the rockets were intercepted and two landed in open areas.
  • Elsewhere in Gaza, IDF troops have also intensified operations in Jabaliya. According to the IDF, “Over the past day, IDF troops in the area have engaged in intense battles with dozens of terrorist cells and eliminated a large number of terrorists. In one of the joint ground and aerial strikes in the area, the terrorist cell that fired toward the city of Sderot  on Tuesday was eliminated.”
  • Over the past day, IAF aircraft struck and eliminated approximately 80 terror targets including military compounds, weapons storage facilities, missile launchers, observation posts, and additional terrorist infrastructure.
  • Whilst this morning, the IDF concluded part of its operational activity in the Zeitoun area.

Northern front: Once more, throughout Tuesday, alarms were sounded as several anti-tank missiles were launched into northern Israel.

  • Since then, over 100 rockets have been fired towards Israel.
  • In Adamit in the western Galilee, an IDF soldier was moderately injured and four additional soldiers were lightly injured.
  • In the familiar pattern, in response Israel Air Force jets struck a Hezbollah military structures.
  • In addition, the IDF announced they “eliminated the terrorist Hussain Ibrahim Mekky in the area of Tyre, southern Lebanon. Mekky was a senior field commander in the Hezbollah terrorist organisation on the southern front, who was responsible for the planning and execution of numerous terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians and territory since the start of the war.”
  • Hezbollah officially confirmed his death, also noting that he was an associate of Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the Iranian official who was killed in Damascus in April.
  • Hezbollah also confirmed he is their 300th fatality since October.

Context: Although now being expanded, Israel is still limiting its operations in Rafah to pinpoint missions. Concern for the safety of any hostages being held in Rafah, along with the over one million civilians, is allied to a desire to reduce tensions with Egypt which have been inflamed over Cairo’s opposition to any operation in Rafah.

  • It is estimated that close to half a million people have left Rafah, most of whom were encouraged to leave by the IDF in the eastern sector, but also many from other parts of the city that have chosen to leave.
  • Israeli-Egyptian tensions over an operation in Rafah have intensified in recent weeks.
  • Egypt recently announced its support for South Africa’s case at the ICJ accusing Israel of genocide.
  • Israel’s peace deal with Egypt is one of its most significant regional accords, and Egyptian officials have been careful not to indicate that it is at risk. “The situation is difficult,” said one senior Egyptian official this week, “but we haven’t reached, and I hope we do not reach, that stage.”
  • Israeli officials were quoted expressing shock at the news of Egypt’s support for the South African case. “It isn’t the statement about The Hague that troubles us,” said one, “but the fact that it is part of a problematic whole. We are in a situation we haven’t been in in the past in the relations between the countries. Egypt is showing us that it no longer has patience for us. That is sad and worrisome.”
  • The Gaza conflict has had a consequences for Egypt, including the loss of income due to the Houthis attacks which has caused many of the ships to choosing an alternative route, thus diminishing the use of the Suez canal.
  • The operation in Rafah risks Gazan population attempts to flee into Egypt. Already around 100,000 Gazans have entered into Egypt via the Rafah border crossing, and there is heighted concern for a further influx.
  • Last week, a Jewish Canadian businessman, (who also held an Israeli passport) Ziv Kiefer, was murdered in a terror attack Alexandria. This primarily reflects badly on Egypt, and troubles their image as their other major source of income is tourism.
  • From the Israeli perspective, there is frustration that the Egyptians failed in their role as mediators over the latest round of hostage talks. The terms that Hamas agreed to, were partly a result of Egypt over accommodation of Hamas demands including:
    • Hamas cannot guarantee how many of the 33 female soldiers, sick and elderly are still alive.
    • Hamas refusing Israel’s insistence to have a veto over certain heavyweight terrorists that will be released in exchange.
    • The sequencing of the deal: how may hostages will be released after how many days.
    • Hamas are also seeking a longer pause: 12 weeks as opposed to 6 in an effort to end the fighting completely – something Israel will only consider for the release of all the hostages.

Looking ahead: There is concern that the Israeli – Egyptian tension could lead Egypt to recall its ambassador from Tel Aviv.

  • However, there is still hope that Israel and Egypt can resolve their disagreements and maintain their crucial strategic ties.
  • Further precise operations across Gaza are anticipated as intelligence shows Hamas fighters rebuilding their capacity in other areas vacated by the IDF.
  • Despite further evidence of UNRWA-Hamas connections, the IDF is determined to continue to distribute aid to the residents of the Gaza Strip.

May 14, 2024

Sombre mood accompanies Independence Day celebrations

What’s happening: Muted celebrations are being held today to mark the 76th anniversary of Israel’s independence.

  • Last night’s annual torch-lighting ceremony was pre-recorded, for the first time ever. In recorded remarks, Prime Minister Netanyahu said: “This year’s Independence Day is not like any other year’s… The war is still raging. It was forced upon us on that dark day of the horrendous massacre. Many of our brothers and sisters are still being held in the dungeons of Hamas. Their families are suffering greatly. We will bring them all home, the living and the dead.”
  • “Although this is not a regular Independence Day, it is a special opportunity for us to realise the significance of our independence. Independence means being a free people in our country, having the freedom to defend ourselves by ourselves and the sovereignty to satisfy the behest of generations: never again!”
  • “We are doing all this together. Just like our courageous soldiers fight together, shoulder to shoulder, in tanks and armoured vehicles, in tunnels, in aircraft and navy vessels. At the moment of truth, the entire country took up arms. What an incredible generation we have, a generation of triumphant heroes.”
  • In a message to Jewish communities around the world, President Herzog also acknowledged that this year’s anniversary felt profoundly different. October 7th, he said, had “shaken the earth beneath our feet. But, my brothers and sisters, this is only part of the truth. We must recognise that these times of real loss have also been a time of important achievements. They have reminded us why we rose up from tragedy and found the strength and determination to establish a beautiful and beloved national home: the miracle that is the State of Israel.”
  • “They have reminded us, also, of our core qualities, of our power as a people to stand up, again and again, against hatred. To survive and speak our truth. Of our deep and sustaining caring for one another. Of our connection to the call that we have carried across the ages: To do good, to pursue peace, Tikum Olam and to repair our fractured world.”
  • At the annual ceremony held at the President’s Residence this morning, Herzog also recognised 120 “Outstanding Soldiers”.
  • Elsewhere, Torches were lit in Kfar Aza, Hof Zikim, Sderot, Nahal Oz, and other locations affected on October 7.
  • 100,000 Israelis attended a separate commemoration in Tel Aviv’s Hostage Square, standing vigil with hostages families.
  • A small alternative ceremony was also held in the central town of Binyamina, in which torches were extinguished, reversing the protocol in the traditional Independence Day celebrations.
  • Meanwhile, sirens sounded in northern Israel yesterday after two anti-tank missiles crossed from Lebanese territory into the area of Yiftah. Three IDF soldiers were lightly injured and one moderately injured.
  • The IDF struck several targets in southern Lebanon in response, including in Odaisseh, Khiam, and Kafr Kila.
  • In southern Israel, initial reports of sirens sounding in communities in the Gaza envelope proved to be a false alarm, while several launches identified from Gaza fell inside the Strip, with no Israeli injuries reported.
  • One UN employee was killed and another injured in Rafah yesterday. The IDF said that their vehicle’s route was unknown to Israel and that they were hit “amid fighting in an area defined as an active combat zone.”
  • Meanwhile, the Iranian-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for launching two UAVs at what they claimed to be a “military target in Eilat.” IDF fighter jets successfully intercepted them before they entered Israeli territory.

Context: This year’s celebrations are taking place in an atmosphere of subdued protest against the government. Commentators are suggesting that the decision to pre-record the Independence Day celebration was due to a wish to avoid government officials being heckled or challenged in public.

  • Earlier yesterday, at the official Memorial Day commemoration, Netanyahu was heckled with shouts of “You took my children” from several attendees, reportedly bereaved families.
  • Last week, Maariv’s latest polling reflected the continuing slump in popularity of Netanyahu’s Likud. The poll showed the Likud losing nearly half its current 32 Knesset seats, down to 17. Benny Gantz’s National Unity Party, meanwhile, is projected to win 32. The other projections were: Yesh Atid: 13; Yisrael Beiteinu: 11; Shas: 10; Jewish Power: 9; United Torah Judaism: 7; Hadash-Ta’al: 5; United Arab List: 4; Meretz: 4; Religious Zionist Party: 4; Labour Party: 4.
  • Overall, the current opposition is slated to win a majority 64 seats, with the current coalition on 47.
  • In projections of a different kind, Israel’s population is expected to top 10 million by next year’s Independence Day.
  • Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics, as is traditional, noted that in its 76 years of independence, the country has grown from a population of 806,000 to over 9.9 million.
  • Of these, 7,247,000 identify as Jewish (73.2 percent), 2,089,000 as Arab (21.1 percent), and the remaining 5.7 percent classified as “others”.
  • As of the end of 2022, the report says, 45 percent of the world’s Jews live in Israel, with 80 percent of Israelis having been born in the country.
  • Last week, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq has claimed six attempted drone and cruise missile attacks on Israeli targets including the port city of Eilat, Israeli Air Force bases at Nevatim and Ovda, the Ashkelon oil terminal, a platform in the Leviathan offshore gas field, and the Ramon airport. None of these attacks caused damage or casualties

Looking ahead: Independence Day commemorations will continue throughout the day, with Herzog hosting a reception for foreign ambassadors and members of the international diplomatic corps later.

May 13, 2024

Israel marks Memorial Day as fighting in Gaza continues

  • To date, 25,040 IDF soldiers have died in Israel’s wars.
  • Since October 7th, 716 IDF soldiers and other security personnel have been killed in action. This total includes 8 soldiers killed in the last week.
  • Since last Memorial Day, 834 civilians were murdered, bringing the total of Israeli civilians murdered in terror attacks to 5,100. Twelve Israeli civilians had been murdered since last Memorial Day prior to October 7th.
  • This morning at 1100 local time, a two-minute memorial siren was heard across the country. The official state ceremony at Mount Herzl was attended by Prime Minister Netanyahu, President Yitzhak Herzog, Knesset Speaker Ohana and the heads of the security forces.

Gaza Strip: Since the weekend, the IDF has been operating across the Gaza Strip in the south, centre and north. The IDF says it has struck 150 targets across the Strip in the last day.

  • On Sunday, the IDF expanded its precise operation against Hamas in Eastern Rafah. The IDF announced, “since the start of our precise operation against Hamas in Rafah we have eliminated dozens of terrorists, exposed underground terror tunnels and vast amounts of weapons. Prior to our operations we urge civilians to temporarily move towards humanitarian areas and move away from the crossfire that Hamas puts them in.”
  • Four months after the IDF gained control over Jabalya, the second-largest city in the northern Gaza Strip, the IDF has returned after Hamas reconstituted its military position close to the Israeli border.
  • As a clear sign of Hamas’s remaining capabilities, they have fired over 20 rockets in the last 24 hours aimed towards Sderot Ashkelon and Beer Sheva. Most were intercepted or landed in open areas, but one rocket directly struck a building in Ashkelon, slightly wounding three people and causing extensive damage to an apartment.
  • At least five more rockets were fired from Rafah at the crossing at Kerem Shalom, all of which were either intercepted or landed in open areas.
  • The IDF has also been operating in Gaza City’s Zeitoun neighbourhood. At the onset, the IDF called on the local population of more than 100,000 people to leave. This is because of the familiar Hamas approach of embedding themselves within the civilian population, where they had renewed their military control.

Humanitarian assistance: On Sunday, the IDF announced the opening of the ‘Western Erez’ Crossing in the northern Gaza strip, emphasising it was done in coordination with the US government.

  • The ID noted this crossing “is part of the effort to increase aid routes to the Gaza Strip, and to the northern Gaza Strip in particular… Dozens of trucks of flour were coordinated from the Port of Ashdod on behalf of the World Food Programme organisation after undergoing security checks.”
  • Ahead of the (so far) limited operation in Rafah, Israel facilitated the entry of tens of thousands of tents provided by the UAE and others for Palestinians leaving Rafah towards Khan Yunis.
  • On Friday, the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) announced the transfer of 200,000 litres of fuel, “transferred to address the ongoing and essential requirements of the international community, including hospitals, humanitarian areas, logistical centres and the distribution of .”
  • On Saturday, a new field hospital was set up in central Gaza. According to the IDF, “the establishment of the hospital was coordinated and enabled through the entry of medical workers and medical equipment, including medicines, beds, food, water, tents, first aid equipment, ventilators, and materials for the construction of the field hospital… The field hospital will be operated by 150 international medical aid workers, and its dozens of beds can be used for emergency and routine medical treatment.”
  • The IDF noted, “the hospital joins seven other field hospitals that have been established in the Gaza Strip since the start of the war. It is located in the area of Deir al-Balah, which serves to provide to the Gazan residents temporarily evacuated from the eastern Rafah area. As part of the humanitarian measures to facilitate the temporary evacuation of civilians from the eastern Rafah area, some of the existing field hospitals were transferred to the expanded Humanitarian Area in Al-Mawasi in coordination with the international community, where there is an increased supply of tents, food, water, and medicine.”

Cameron rejects arms embargo: while reiterating the UK’s opposition to the operation in Rafah, Foreign Secretary Cameron yesterday told Sky News that a UK arms embargo would “strengthen Hamas”.

  • Comparing the UK’s minor role as a weapons supplier to Israel with that of the US, Cameron said: “The United States is a massive bulk state supplier of weapons to Israel… The UK provides less than 1 percent of Israel’s weapons and is not a state supplier. We have a licensing system and those licences can be closed if it’s judged there’s a serious risk of a serious international human rights violation.”
  • He reminded viewers that the last time there had been pressure on the UK Government to consider an embargo, “a few days later there was a massive Iranian attack on Israel, including 140 cruise missiles. So I don’t think it would have been a wise path.”
  • “If I announced that today,” he continued, “it might help me get through this television interview, but actually it would strengthen Hamas. It would weaken Israel.”

Context: The mood in Israel is particularly sombre today as Israel marks the traditional annual Memorial Day, whilst still in active combat across Gaza and in the north and with 132 hostages having remained in Hamas captivity for 219 days.

  • In the north, two IDF reservists were killed by a kamikaze drone strike at an army position near Metula last week, while a third was killed in a separate attack. The IDF responded with airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon,
  • In Gaza, a disturbing pattern has repeated itself: once the IDF leaves a combat zone, Hamas fighters have been able to return, regroup and reestablish control.
  • This is placing extra pressure on the political leadership to decide who will manage Gaza ‘the day after’.
  • Yossi Yehoshua, in Yediot Ahronot, spelt out the concern, writing “military officials have said that a decision has to be made about the regime that will take the reins in Gaza in the future. Security  officials have said that no one wants Hamas. As such, the options remaining are either the Palestinian Authority or moderate forces in the Gaza Strip that enjoy the support of Arab countries. The third option, one of an Israeli military administration, is untenable…”
  • Meanwhile, efforts are still underway to reach an agreement for the release of hostages and a ceasefire. Despite hopes that Hamas had ‘agreed’, significant gaps remain:
    • Hamas cannot guarantee how many of the 33 female soldiers, sick and elderly are still alive.
    • Hamas refusing Israel’s insistence to have a veto over certain heavyweight terrorists that will be released in exchange.
    • The sequencing of the deal: how may hostages will be released after how many days.
    • Hamas are also seeking a longer pause: 12 weeks as opposed to 6 in an effort to end the fighting completely – something Israel will only consider for the release of all the hostages.
  • Hamas continues its psychological warfare, releasing another hostage video, the third in a month.
  • In Rafah, Israel is thus far limiting its operations to pinpoint missions. Concern for the safety of any hostages being held in Rafah, along with the over one million civilians, is allied to a desire to reduce tensions with Egypt which have been inflamed over Cairo’s opposition to any operation in Rafah.

Looking ahead: One of Israel’s most immediate diplomatic priorities will be maintaining ties with Cairo and securing Egyptian cooperation for ongoing operations in Rafah and elsewhere in the Gaza Strip.

  • There will likely be diplomatic fallout from Cairo’s decision to support South Africa’s case against Israel at the ICJ (see Israeli Media Summary below).
  • Egypt’s opposition to an operation in Rafah, like that of other Arab states, has implications for the Arab world’s involvement in the ‘day after’ in Gaza and will require delicate handling

May 9, 2024

Concern over Israel-US tension

What’s happened: President Biden has warned that the US  would halt shipments of weapons to Israel if it goes ahead with an invasion of Rafah.

  • In an interview with CNN, President Biden said, “We’re going to continue to make sure Israel is secure in terms of Iron Dome and their ability to respond to attacks that came out of the Middle East recently.”
  • Biden then expressed concerns about an Israeli operation in Rafah (which he said hadn’t started yet). “I made it clear that if they go into Rafah – they haven’t gone into Rafah yet – if they go into Rafah, I’m not supplying the weapons that have been historically used to deal with Rafah, to deal with the cities, that deal with that problem.”
  • Also yesterday, aid for Gaza was loaded onto the US-flagged Sagamore, docked at the port of Larnaca in Cyprus. It is expected to be the first cargo to be delivered using the new pier built in Gaza. A Cypriot government spokesperson said that, “We are completing the loading of aid onto a US vessel now in Larnaca, and once the platform is in place, this part of the process (shipment) can commence.”
  • Meanwhile, Hamas fired mortar shells in two separate attacks at the area of the floating pier. Moreover, following the re-opening of the Kerem Shalom crossing for , missiles were launched from the area of Rafah toward the Crossing injuring a soldier.
  • On the ground in Gaza, the IDF said it was attacking Hamas targets in the central Gaza Strip. IDF troops operated in the area of Zeitoun in central Gaza in order to continue the dismantling of terrorist infrastructure and elimination of operatives in the area. That operation began with a series of intelligence-based aerial strikes on approximately 25 terror targets, including military structures, terror tunnels, observation posts, sniper posts, and additional terror infrastructure.
  • A joint IDF-Shin Bet statement added that Israel killed the commander of Hamas’ naval force in Gaza City, Ahmed Ali.
  • In the north, the IDF reported a suspicious aircraft that crashed in Israel’s north and two anti-tank missiles fired from Lebanon hit Kibbutz Malkia. An IDF soldier was killed in operational activity in northern Israel.
  • The IDF struck over 20 Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah announced that five people were killed – three members of the Al-Quds Brigades, the Islamic Jihad’s military wing, and two Hezbollah members. This morning, two Hezbollah operatives were killed and another critically injured in an Israeli air strike east of Tyre.

Context: President Biden’s comments on weapons ties in to Secretary of Defence Austin’s confirmation yesterday that the US was reviewing some near-term security assistance to Israel.

  • While Biden’s comments reflect tension with Jerusalem, it remains unclear whether his deep opposition is to any Israeli action in Rafah or rather to a comprehensive Israeli operation in Rafah – similar to that in northern Gaza and Khan Yunis which required massive relocation of civilians – which has not taken place.
  • Senior administration officials have said that the US stopped a shipment of equipment needed for precision bombs for two weeks in order to “send a message to Israel.”
  • Israel has made efforts to ensure that any major incursion into Rafah would be preceded by efforts to relocate the population to expanded humanitarian zones in Al Mawasi as well as in Khan Yunis (which the IDF withdrew from in April).
  • In April, the Biden Administration pushed through a $14 billion (£11.22 billion) supplemental spending bill to Israel, (as part of a larger $95 billion package that also included $60 billion for Ukraine, support for Taiwan and billions in humanitarian assistance).
  • Senior Republicans have pushed back against Biden’s Israel policy. In a letter Senate Majority Leader McConnell and House Speaker Johnson wrote that “Israel faces an existential and multi-front threat as recently demonstrated by the direct attack by Iran and Iranian-backed terrorists, and daylight between the United States and Israel at this dangerous time risks emboldening Israel’s enemies and undermining the trust that other allies and partners have in the United States.” They added “These recent press reports and pauses in critical weapons shipments call into question your pledge that your commitment to Israel’s security will remain ironclad.”
  • Responding to Biden’s comments, Israeli politicians from the right generally blamed the President while those in the opposition put the responsibility for the deterioration of Israel-US relations on PM Netanyahu. Nadav Eyal, an Israeli analyst described the situation as “the worst conflict between an American administration and an Israeli government since the first Lebanon War” adding that “even then public and tactical statements of this kind weren’t made by the president.”
  • Israel is also concerned that these public statements have prompted Hamas not to give up on any of its excessive demands in the talks to free the hostages.

Looking ahead: CIA Director Bill Burns will return to Cairo after meeting with Mossad chief David Barnea and PM Netanyahu.

  • Conflicting reports have emerged over whether there has been progress in negotiations in Cairo. An Israeli official is quoted as saying that “Hamas’s proposal is very far from the proposal that Israel agreed to in late April. Unless Hamas returns to the original proposal, it will be impossible to come to an agreed framework.”
  • A Hamas source quoted by Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, the London-based pan-Arab news outlet owned by a Qatari company said: “We are close to reaching an agreement thanks to the mediators.” The source said that the differences of opinion have been greatly reduced, and the negotiations are now focused on Netanyahu’s request to have the ceasefire commence in the second stage of the deal, and not in the first stage

May 8, 2024

Israel studying Hamas counter-offer as IDF continues Rafah offensive

What’s happened: As Israel seeks to ascertain whether Hamas is serious about a hostage deal, troops have continued to carry out focused operations against Hamas targets in eastern Rafah.

  • In a statement the IDF said that “in the context of the operations, the troops gained operational control over the Gazan side of the Rafah border crossing in response to intelligence about the use made by terrorists of the crossing for terrorist purposes.”
  • Defence Minister Gallant said, “The operation in Rafah will not stop until Hamas is eliminated, or until the first hostage returns to Israel.” Minister Benny Gantz said that “at any stage where we can reach a plan for the return of our hostages, we will do so.”
  • An Israeli delegation arrived in Cairo to continue talks towards an agreement for a cease-fire. Also in Cairo are delegations from the US, Qatar and Hamas.
  • In a statement, PM Netanyahu claimed Hamas’ ceasefire proposal was “intended to torpedo the entry of our forces into Rafah.” Netanyahu added that the purpose of the Rafah operation is to bring back the hostages and eliminate Hamas. Israel has “already proved in the previous hostage release [that] military pressure on Hamas is a precondition for the return of the hostages.”
  • The Kerem Shalom border crossing between Israel and Gaza reopened to this morning. The crossing had been closed since Sunday, when a nearby rocket attack killed four Israeli soldiers.
  • A senior US official confirmed that last week the US delayed a shipment of two kinds of bombs to Israel because of its opposition to a major ground operation in Rafah and the concern about the destruction that heavy bombs might cause in a dense urban area.
  • The IDF intercepted a suspicious aircraft from the east near Eilat last night with the target intercepted outside of Israel’s borders. Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq announced that they had launched a UAV at Eilat.
  • Also yesterday US Central Command said that Houthis launched three drones from Yemen over the Gulf of Aden, and that a coalition ship successfully intercepted two of them and the third crashing in the Gulf of Aden.  An anti-ship ballistic missile was later launched over the same area, and no injuries or damage was reported.

Context: Four of Hamas’ remaining battalions are located in Rafah, while the border – referred to as the Philadelphia Corridor – is considered essential to prevent weapons smuggling and future rearmament by Hamas.

  • Israel has reportedly committed to the US and Egypt to restrict its operation in Rafah, aiming only to deny Hamas authority over the border crossing – located approximately 2 miles from the city of Rafah – and concentrating on the eastern side of the city.
  • Significant differences exist between Israel’s latest negotiation line – described by the US as ‘extremely generous’ – and Hamas’ announced proposal. These include:
    • The contours of the three-phase deal put forward by Israel required the release (within the first 42-days), of 33 living hostages – women, children, elderly or sick. Hamas has said it can only guarantee it has 20 live hostages from among that group and proposes to release 33 hostages, alive or dead.
    • Hamas’ proposal suggests three hostages to be released every seven days rather than three hostages every three days.
    • Hamas want to increased the number of security prisoners to be freed by Israel in exchange for each hostage in the first phase and sought to remove the veto Israel demanded on the release of certain Palestinian security prisoners.
    • The Hamas proposal allows for the return of Gazans back north without security checks required by Israel and changes some specifics on the withdrawal of Israeli troops.
  • Israel’s delegation is comprised of lower level officials with a limited mandate to determine whether Hamas’s proposal is a ruse, a proposal that was put forward only in hope of placing the onus on Israel, or whether it was a proposal that might allow for progress to be made towards an agreement.
  • White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby indicated that the proposal should be viewed as a counterproposal.

Looking ahead: CIA Director William Burns, who held talks in Qatar and in Cairo, will arrive in Israel today and meet with Netanyahu and other senior officials.

  • An Israeli official told Kan Radio last night that if there was no change in the approach taken by the mediators and in Hamas’s position, the operation in Rafah would be expanded.
  • Israel reportedly intends to involve Palestinians who are not connected to Hamas in administering the Rafah crossing with the goal to have better supervision and monitoring of the aid at the crossing, through which weapons have also passed

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