What’s happened: Yesterday saw another round of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in the north.

• A barrage of some 30 Hezbollah rockets were fired on northern towns. Some were intercepted and others landed in open areas. No injuries resulted, though a bushfire was sparked in the Hula Valley region.
• Hezbollah confirmed responsibility and said their target was the Northern Command military base near the city of Safed.
• Later, a further barrage of at least five rockets was launched at the Beit Hillel area. Again, no injuries were caused, though one rocket struck near the Maayan Baruch Junction.
• The rocket fire followed an IAF strike in Nabatieh in southern Lebanon which killed Hezbollah weapons manufacturer Muhammad Ali Nasser Faran yesterday. The IDF said “the elimination of Ali Nasser Faran is part of the IDF and Israeli security forces’ activities to impede Hezbollah’s stockpiling and build-up of weapons designated for use in attacks against Israeli civilians and communities.”
• IDF fighter jets also struck multiple Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, including military structures in the areas of Ayta ash Shab and Rab El Thalathine, and a military structure and two Hezbollah observation posts in the area of Odaisseh.
• Also yesterday, IDF troops apprehended two suspects adjacent to the security fence in the northern Golan Heights. The suspects were observed by IDF troops and apprehended before crossing the security fence.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu visited Israel’s Northern Command, where he received an operational briefing by its head, Maj.-Gen. Ori Gordin.
• “We are constantly in action on the northern front,” said Netanyahu. “As of now we have eliminated hundreds of Hezbollah militants and we are still poised – even today… We have detailed, important, and even surprising plans. But I will not share these plans – which are designed to do two things, 1) to restore security to the north, and 2) to restore the residents safely to their homes – with the enemy. We are determined to achieve both of them together.”
• Elsewhere, from the east, three drones were launched at Israel last night and in the early hours of this morning by the Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq. All were shot down by Israeli fighter jets before they were able to enter Israeli airspace, though part of an interceptor missile landed near Safed, causing a fire.

Context: Since October 7^th, Hezbollah has launched near-daily multi-rocket (and sometimes missile) attacks on northern Israel, on both military posts and civilian communities.

• 10 civilians and 14 IDF soldiers have been killed on the Israeli side, while Hezbollah, which unlike Hamas confirms the deaths of its members, has listed 312 members killed. 61 operatives from other groups, including Palestinians based in Lebanon, have also been killed.
• The increased conflict has raised fears of all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah for the first time since the Second Lebanon War ended in 2006. The prevailing assessment, however, is that both sides have calibrated their activity to stop short of all-out war.
• Hezbollah has maintained a threshold of violence at a level it deems will divert resources away from Gaza to the northern front, but stopping short of necessitating an immediate Israeli ground offensive.
• In comparison with previous rounds of fighting with Israel, Hezbollah is increasingly deploying more sophisticated weaponry, including Iranian-produced Almas anti-tank guided missiles with a 10-kilometre range and the shorter range Burkan with its heavy payload. Iranian-produced Hezbollah UAVs have also been used.
• Israel’s response to these attacks has largely been a combination of air and artillery strikes into Lebanon targeting Hezbollah’s military leadership and infrastructure. While primarily destroying targets in the south of the country, some Israeli airstrikes have been reported as far north as Baalbeck and the Beqaa Valley.
• However, Israel views its current paradigm of 80,000 citizens being internally displaced due to Hezbollah’s aggression as untenable and intolerable. The longer they remain unable to safely return to their homes, the higher the risk of a military escalation in southern Lebanon.
• While the US and France have spearheaded a series of diplomatic efforts to defuse this situation, they have thus far proved unsuccessful.
• Israel continues to insist on the robust implementation of UN Resolution 1701 passed at the end of the Second Lebanon War in 2006. Most significantly, it stipulates Hezbollah forces, be pushed back as far as the Litani River ensuring Israeli civilian are out of range of Hezbollah’s accurate Kornet anti-tank missiles.
• Any move away from the border on the part of Hezbollah fighters will need to be monitored and sustainable, since Hezbollah has a track record of initially complying with such deconfliction steps, before then moving its fighters back closer to the border.
• The killing of Faran follows the IDF saying on Monday that it killed the commander of Hezbollah’s coastal rocket and missile unit, Qassem Saqlawi. Saqlawi was targeted in a drone strike while driving in the Tyre area in southern Lebanon, the military said.
• The Safed military base has been a regular target for Hezbollah rockets. In February, one Israeli was killed and seven others injured in a multi-rocket attack.
• On Monday, the IDF confirmed that three drones launched by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq were downed by fighter jets and a Sa’ar 4.5-class missile ship, according to the IDF. Iran-backed groups in Iraq, Yemen, and Syria, have claimed to have launched dozens of drones at Israel since October 7^th.

Looking ahead: Fears of further rocket attacks have prompted the Knesset to pass an emergency law restricting this year’s Lag B’Omer festivities. Traditionally, somewhere in the region of 100,000 religious Israeli Jews would have made a pilgrimage to the gravesite of second-century rabbi Shimon Bar Yochai in northern Israel.

• Jewish Heritage Minister Meir Porush said: “Unlimited access would mean tens of thousands of people arriving and a terrible catastrophe could happen if the place is targeted with rockets. We must not take such risks with human lives.”
• The pilgrimage site is located close to the Mt Meron air traffic control base, a frequent Hezbollah target. Last week, the group fired 60 rockets at the base, most of which were intercepted but with some causing minor damage.
• The mayor of Tiberias has also ordered the closure of the tomb of Rabbi Akiva, lest pilgrims originally intending to travel to Mt Meron divert there instead

Hostage video: A short video was released yesterday showing the kidnap of five female IDF spotters from the Nahal Oz base on October 7^th.

• The footage of the abduction of Liri Albag, Karina Ariev, Agam Berger, Daniella Gilboa, and Naama Levy was shown under the auspices of the Hostages and Missing Families Forum and with the permission of each of the women’s families.
• The footage shows the five in clear distress, and some of them bloodied. Terrorist captors are heard saying “our brothers died because of you. We will shoot you all.”
• The Forum described its content as a “damning testament to the nation’s failure to bring home the hostages… The Israeli government must not waste even one more moment – it must return to the negotiating table today!”
• Liri Albag’s father Eli, speaking after the video was screened, said “I want you to broadcast this footage every day at the start of the news… until somebody wakes up.”
• “If this film doesn’t change the thinking, this is the last bullet we have, to tell them. What else do you want? What else can we do? If that doesn’t influence them…”
• President Herzog said “the world must look at this cruel atrocity. Those who care about women’s rights must speak out. All those who believe in freedom must speak out, and do everything possible to bring all of the hostages home now.”
• In further efforts to reach a hostage/ceasefire deal, the war cabinet has unanimously approved a mandate for Israel’s negotiating team to return to negotiations with Hamas. Hostage Coordinator Maj. Gen. (res.) Nitzan Alon is said to have drafted new negotiations terms, in a bid to bridge the gaps between Hamas’s demands and previous Israeli proposals. The government insists that any deal stop short of a firm commitment to end the war.

Context: The comments from family members indicate that the timing of the footage’s release is based on a desire to put pressure on the political echelon to secure the release of the remaining hostages.

• Hostage families have been active in widespread protests urging the government to reach a deal with Hamas, even at the cost of ending the war.
• Channel 12 reports that Defence Minister Gallant first showed the video to all war cabinet members in March. Once hostage negotiations stalled, the families asked that the footage be shown to all members of the wider security cabinet, too.
• The channel reports that Cabinet Secretary Tzahi Braverman refused to allow the video to be shown in the security cabinet meeting room, citing technical reasons, and that only five security cabinet ministers chose to watch at their own initiative: Miri Regev, Gila Gamliel, Itamar Ben Gvir, Chili Tropper and Yisrael Katz.
• Earlier this month, negotiations fell apart due to Hamas intransigence, including:
  • Its insistence on ending the war completely, which would perpetuate Hamas rule.
  • Its failure to confirm how many of the hostages were still alive, and whether Israel was negotiating for live captives or dead bodies.
  • Its insistence on being able to chose which Palestinian prisoners were to be released, without an Israeli veto.
  • The sequencing and length of a ceasefire, and at which stage hostages would be released.
• Israel has previously released a 47-minute video of the October 7^th massacres based on Hamas bodycam and cctv footage. Due to the horrific nature of the footage, it has restricted viewings to private audiences. Netanyahu is thought to be considering releasing a shortened version to a wider audience, in a bid to remind international audiences why this war began, and the brutal nature of Hamas.

Context of recognition: Israel has responded angrily to the decision of Ireland, Spain, and Norway to formally recognise a Palestinian state.

• In response, Israeli Foreign Minister Katz said recognition “sent messages to the Palestinians and to the entire world: terror pays… After Hamas carried out the biggest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust; after it committed horrific sex crimes that the world has seen, these countries have chosen to reward Hamas and Iran and recognize the Palestinian state. Israel will not take this lying down.”
• The position of the UK and US has traditionally been that recognition should come not before, but as a result of, bilateral negotiations between the two sides aimed at ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
• The Israeli view remains that, absent such a successful negotiation, and until the Palestinian national movement moves to explicitly recognise the right of Israel to exist as a Jewish state, recognition is both premature and a reward for terror and incitement.
• The disparity of statements from European capitals changing nothing on the ground, could serve to foster further resentment and violence when Palestinians realise that recognition is not leading to a political process.
• In recent months, with Israel’s consent Norway has served as a conduit through which Israel has transferred some of the tax revenues it collects on behalf of the Palestinian Authority (PA) –  about NIS 200-250 million (£42.8-53.5 million) per month. In the wake of Norwegian recognition, Finance Minister Smotrich said he would cease transferring the funds.
• By moving to recognise, he said, “Norway… cannot be a partner to anything related to Judea and Samaria. I plan to halt money transfers to it and to demand all the money that has been transferred [so far] to be returned.”
• If the Norwegian route is closed, the US will be keen to find an alternative arrangement to ensure that the PA does not collapse.

Gaza Strip: The IDF last night announced the deaths of three IDF soldiers killed in action in the northern Strip, while the IAF hit roughly 130 targets yesterday, including terrorist cells, military structures, observation posts, and additional terrorist infrastructure.

• The IDF also reported that in Nuseirat, “following IDF and ISA intelligence, the IAF carried out a precise strike on a compound located inside an UNRWA school where Hamas terrorists –  including an anti-tank missile operative and a Nukhba terrorist – were operating.”
• “The compound that was struck also contained weapons, including mortars and explosives, as evidenced by the numerous secondary explosions after the strike. The strike was carefully planned and carried out using precise munitions to mitigate any harm to civilians in the area.”
• In Rafah, says the IDF, “soldiers located and destroyed multi-barrel rocket launchers that were ready to fire toward Israeli territory. The launch sites were located in eastern Rafah along the Philadelphi Corridor.”
• “The troops are currently operating based on information regarding terror targets in the areas of ‘Brazil’ and ‘Shaboura’, while making every effort to prevent harm to civilians and after the civilian population in the area was evacuated. The activity began with a preliminary series of aerial strikes against Hamas terror targets in Rafah.”
• In Jabaliya, in the northern Strip, the IDF continues close-quarters combat and yesterday eliminated a number of terror targets.
• Also in the northern Strip, the past few days have seen targeted raids in the area of Beit Hanoun, designed to “eliminate terrorists, locate and strike terror infrastructure, below and above the ground.” It was in these operations that the three IDF troops fell.

Context: The IDF has found multiple instances of Hamas using UNRWA facilities for terrorist purposes. Only last week, 15 Hamas fighters were killed in another Israeli strike on a UNRWA school, also in Nuseirat.

• The IDF continues to operate at various points across the Strip. Its return to areas vacated previously indicates the extent to which Hamas and other terror organisation remain able to regroup and continue to pose a threat.
• Defence Minister Gallant continues to press the case for an Israeli vision for a post-Hamas Gaza. On a visit to Jabaliya yesterday, he told troops: “Your job is to strike at Hamas and to kill the terrorists. Our job is to reach a situation in which we replace the Hamas regime. While you are fighting and are doing your job, we will bring about us replacing the Hamas regime and finding it an alternative that isn’t Hamas.”

Looking ahead: Other countries may also recognise a Palestinian state, possibly including Malta, Slovenia, and Belgium.

• Qatari media claims that Egyptian officials have made contact with both Israel and Hamas in a bid to restart negotiations.

What’s happened: Israel’s Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant, yesterday gave a surprising statement yesterday declaring that he would not continue in office were Israel to govern the Gaza Strip after the war.

• Gallant called instead for Palestinian control of the Strip with international assistance, and hit out at Prime Minister Netanyahu for not announcing a plan for the ‘day after’.
• “We must dismantle Hamas’ governing capabilities in Gaza,” Gallant said. “The key to this goal is military action, and the establishment of a governing alternative in Gaza. In the absence of such an alternative, only two negative options remain: Hamas’ rule in Gaza, or Israeli military rule in Gaza.”
• “The meaning of indecision is choosing one of the negative options – it would erode our military achievements, lessen the pressure on Hamas, and sabotage the chances of achieving a framework for the release of hostages.”
• “Since October, I have been raising this issue consistently in the Cabinet, and have received no response. The end of the military campaign must come together with political action.  The ‘day after Hamas’ will only be achieved with Palestinian entities taking control of Gaza, accompanied by international actors, establishing a governing alternative to Hamas’ rule. This, above all, is an interest of the State of Israel.”
• “Unfortunately, this issue was not raised for debate and worse, an alternative was not raised in its replacement… I must reiterate – I will not agree to the establishment of Israeli military rule in Gaza. Israel must not establish [its own] civilian rule in Gaza.”
• “I call on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make a decision and declare that Israel will not establish civilian control over the Gaza strip, that Israel will not establish military governance in the Gaza strip, and that a governing alternative to Hamas in the Gaza strip will be raised immediately.”
• Gallant’s statement drew an instant public rebuttal from the prime minister, as well as angry denunciations from far-right cabinet colleagues, some of whom demanded that Netanyahu fire Gallant.
• Gallant was supported by fellow War Cabinet Minister Gantz and his National Unity Party.
• In an interview with US network CNBC yesterday, Netanyahu did address a post-Hamas Gaza Strip, saying “What do you need then to reconstruct Gaza to have a different future so Gaza doesn’t pose a threat to Israel anymore? You need to have three things. One, sustained demilitarisation and that I think, can only be done by Israel intervening when it can when it sees another terrorist resurgence. The second thing you need is a civilian administration that is not Hamas and not beholden to the destruction of Israel. And I think that could be done with the assistance of Arab countries and the international community. And the third thing you need is reconstruction. That I think can be done with the help of important players in the international community… But you’ve got to clear Gaza of Hamas… What I’d like to see is a non-Hamas civilian administration with an Israeli military responsibility, overall military responsibility.”
• Meanwhile, in Gaza, five Israeli soldiers were killed and another seven wounded in a tragic incident of friendly fire in northern Gaza’s Jabaliya yesterday. Initial IDF investigations indicate that a tank fired two shells at a building in which the soldiers were present.
• This follows the announcement yesterday that a first solider had died in Israel’s operation in the southern town of Rafah, Hamas’s final stronghold in the Gaza Strip.
• The IDF continues its precision operations in Rafah, from where a projectile was fired at the Kerem Shalom crossing yesterday, landing in an open area.
• Elsewhere in the Strip, the IDF has finished its operations in Zeitoun. The IDF said it had “eliminated dozens of terrorists in encounters and airstrikes, destroyed terrorist infrastructure and located many weapons, including dozens of AK-47s, grenades, magazines and intelligence management assets of the Hamas terrorist organisation.”
• In the north, meanwhile, Hezbollah continued to launch multiple attacks on northern Israel yesterday, with the IDF confirming that a sensitive military facility in the Lower Galilee was hit with an explosive drone last night.
• In response, the IDF hit back at Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, including some in the north-east of the country.

Context: Gallant’s comments lay bare the divisions within the senior Israeli leadership over the future of Gaza’s post-war governance.

• A senior US official said last night that Gallant’s statement also reflected the Biden Administration’s position.
• The US has, for some time, called for Palestinian control of the Gaza Strip post-Hamas, and has expressed frustration with the Israeli Government for its refusal to present a clear ‘day after’ policy reflecting this. It’s own preference has been for a reformed Palestinian Authority (PA) to assume control. (For analysis of the government’s limited ‘day after’ plan, as well as more detailed proposals from Israeli experts, see BICOM’s recent research paper.)
• Earlier in the day, US Secretary of State Blinken, speaking in Kiev, had said “we do not support and will not support an Israeli occupation. We also of course, do not support Hamas governance in Gaza … We’ve seen where that’s led all too many times for the people of Gaza and for Israel. And we also can’t have anarchy and a vacuum that’s likely to be filled by chaos.”
• It is not only US support which depends, seemingly, on Israeli support for a Palestinian administration in Gaza. Current and putative Arab allies, like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, are also said to be unwilling to assist with the reconstruction of the Strip unless it is in cooperation with a Palestinian authority.
• Egypt, the UAE, and Morocco are said to be considering a US proposal to contribute to a peacekeeping force in Gaza aimed at ensuring that Hamas does not return in the event of its defeat. All three, however, are said to be conditioning their participation on US recognition of a Palestinian state.
• Netanyahu has consistently ruled out replacing ‘Hamastan” with “Fatahstan” (a reference to Fatah, the PA’s dominant faction). Gallant’s remarks constitute the most direct challenge from within the government to the prime minister since October 7^th, and came only hours after Netanyahu had said publicly that discussions of the day after where premature.
• In response to Gallant, Netanyahu then said: “After the terrible massacre of October 7, I instructed to destroy Hamas. IDF fighters and the security branches are fighting for this. As long as Hamas remains in place, nobody else will enter to run Gaza’s civilian affairs. Certainly not the Palestinian Authority.”
• Netanyahu’s long-standing principled rejection of the PA is based on three main concerns:
  • Its consistent policy of ‘pay for slay’, which sees Palestinian terrorists in Israeli prisons paid commensurate with the amount of Jews they have killed.
  • Incessant incitement and antisemitic content in Palestinian media and school curricula.
  • ‘Lawfare’ seeking to delegitimise Israel in international institutions, which does nothing poster peace and understanding.

• Gallant’s frustrations, as implied by his own words, also echo those of the military establishment, which has for months been angered by the lack of a credible post-war plan. Last weekend, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi is said to have rounded on Netanyahu in a meeting on similar lines.
• Netanyahu is thus caught between the military, along with the more sober, centrist members of the war and security cabinets, who agree with the US line that Israel should have neither a military nor civilian presence in a post-war Strip, and more hard-line right-wing elements of the government who argue not only against Palestinian governance post-war, but in favour of Israeli re-settlement of the Strip.
• Israeli reports suggest that the timing of Gallant’s remarks was partly due to fears that these right-wing ministers were exerting pressure on Netanyahu to move for the establishment of a military government in Gaza imminently.
• This latest episode is another illustration of the unwieldy nature of Netanyahu’s coalition, and his need to balance often wildly divergent internal opinion. Gallant is a member of Netanyahu’s own Likud party, making the criticism even more pointed.
• This is not the first time that Netanyahu and Gallant have clashed. In March 2023, at the height of protests over the government’s judicial reform programme, Gallant was briefly fired by Netanyahu before being swiftly reinstated.
• Hezbollah’s attack in the Lower Galilee represents the latest sign of the escalation of the conflict on Israel’s northern front. An attack on a site 35 kilometres from the Lebanese border, and on an installation which is designed to spot aerial threats from long ranges represents Hezbollah striking deeper into Israel on a sensitive site.
• As well as this incident of long-range fire, short-range fire persists, with over 40 rockets fired at the northern Golan this morning.

Looking ahead: Conversations are expected to take place in Cairo between senior Israeli intelligence officials and Egyptian counterparts, in an effort to reduce tensions with Egypt over the Rafah Crossing and Israel’s operation in the city.

• The IDF has sent an additional commando brigade to Rafah, in anticipation of continued or expanded operations there

Gaza Strip: The precision operation in Eastern Rafah has been extended into three more neighbourhoods, with the IDF claiming to have killed around 100 terrorists.

• This morning, the IDF announced the death of Sgt. Ira Yair Gispan, a 19 year-old resident of Petah Tikva, who was killed in action, the first Israeli fatality in the Rafah operation.
• There have been two further examples of Hamas operating in close proximity to the UN.
• During IDF operational activity in eastern Rafah on Saturday, terrorists were identified in UNRWA’s central logistics compound alongside UN vehicles. The IDF released footage  of armed terrorists next to UN vehicles and in the area of UNRWA’s logistics warehouse compound in eastern Rafah.
• This is a central point for UNRWA’s distribution of aid.
• IDF Spokesperson, Rear Admiral Hagari said, “Today, we revealed unusual footage of armed terrorists next to UN vehicles, which we located a few days ago, and shooting inside an UNRWA compound in eastern Rafah. We forwarded the findings to senior members of the international community, and called on the UN to urgently investigate the connection between UNRWA’s logistics centres to Hamas operatives by their vehicles.”
• In a second incident in Nuseirat yesterday, a joint IDF and Shin Bet announcement noted, “a Hamas war room embedded inside an UNRWA school used by Hamas commanders was targeted in a precise strike by the IDF and ISA; Over 10 Hamas terrorists were eliminated in the strike.”
• Adding, “the war room was used by terrorist operatives in Hamas’ military wing. The strike was carried out using precise munitions in order to minimise harm to uninvolved civilians. The Hamas war room had been used by the terrorist organization to plan multiple attacks against IDF troops in central Gaza in recent weeks. The Nukhba terrorists situated inside the war room took part in the October 7th Massacre and carried out ambushes and attacks on IDF troops in the Gaza Strip. In the IAF strike, approximately 15 operatives from terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip were eliminated, more than 10 of which were part of Hamas.
• In addition, several other soldiers sustained  injuries fighting Hamas terrorists elsewhere in the Strip.
• The IDF have killed several terrorists in face-to-face fighting. They also found, confiscated and destroyed rocket launchers and other weapons.
• Despite IDF operations, five rockets were fired at Sderot, Ibim and Nir Am yesterday. Three of the rockets were intercepted and two landed in open areas.
• Elsewhere in Gaza, IDF troops have also intensified operations in Jabaliya. According to the IDF, “Over the past day, IDF troops in the area have engaged in intense battles with dozens of terrorist cells and eliminated a large number of terrorists. In one of the joint ground and aerial strikes in the area, the terrorist cell that fired toward the city of Sderot  on Tuesday was eliminated.”
• Over the past day, IAF aircraft struck and eliminated approximately 80 terror targets including military compounds, weapons storage facilities, missile launchers, observation posts, and additional terrorist infrastructure.
• Whilst this morning, the IDF concluded part of its operational activity in the Zeitoun area.

Northern front: Once more, throughout Tuesday, alarms were sounded as several anti-tank missiles were launched into northern Israel.

• Since then, over 100 rockets have been fired towards Israel.
• In Adamit in the western Galilee, an IDF soldier was moderately injured and four additional soldiers were lightly injured.
• In the familiar pattern, in response Israel Air Force jets struck a Hezbollah military structures.
• In addition, the IDF announced they “eliminated the terrorist Hussain Ibrahim Mekky in the area of Tyre, southern Lebanon. Mekky was a senior field commander in the Hezbollah terrorist organisation on the southern front, who was responsible for the planning and execution of numerous terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians and territory since the start of the war.”
• Hezbollah officially confirmed his death, also noting that he was an associate of Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the Iranian official who was killed in Damascus in April.
• Hezbollah also confirmed he is their 300^th fatality since October.

Context: Although now being expanded, Israel is still limiting its operations in Rafah to pinpoint missions. Concern for the safety of any hostages being held in Rafah, along with the over one million civilians, is allied to a desire to reduce tensions with Egypt which have been inflamed over Cairo’s opposition to any operation in Rafah.

• It is estimated that close to half a million people have left Rafah, most of whom were encouraged to leave by the IDF in the eastern sector, but also many from other parts of the city that have chosen to leave.
• Israeli-Egyptian tensions over an operation in Rafah have intensified in recent weeks.
• Egypt recently announced its support for South Africa’s case at the ICJ accusing Israel of genocide.
• Israel’s peace deal with Egypt is one of its most significant regional accords, and Egyptian officials have been careful not to indicate that it is at risk. “The situation is difficult,” said one senior Egyptian official this week, “but we haven’t reached, and I hope we do not reach, that stage.”
• Israeli officials were quoted expressing shock at the news of Egypt’s support for the South African case. “It isn’t the statement about The Hague that troubles us,” said one, “but the fact that it is part of a problematic whole. We are in a situation we haven’t been in in the past in the relations between the countries. Egypt is showing us that it no longer has patience for us. That is sad and worrisome.”
• The Gaza conflict has had a consequences for Egypt, including the loss of income due to the Houthis attacks which has caused many of the ships to choosing an alternative route, thus diminishing the use of the Suez canal.
• The operation in Rafah risks Gazan population attempts to flee into Egypt. Already around 100,000 Gazans have entered into Egypt via the Rafah border crossing, and there is heighted concern for a further influx.
• Last week, a Jewish Canadian businessman, (who also held an Israeli passport) Ziv Kiefer, was murdered in a terror attack Alexandria. This primarily reflects badly on Egypt, and troubles their image as their other major source of income is tourism.
• From the Israeli perspective, there is frustration that the Egyptians failed in their role as mediators over the latest round of hostage talks. The terms that Hamas agreed to, were partly a result of Egypt over accommodation of Hamas demands including:
  • Hamas cannot guarantee how many of the 33 female soldiers, sick and elderly are still alive.
  • Hamas refusing Israel’s insistence to have a veto over certain heavyweight terrorists that will be released in exchange.
  • The sequencing of the deal: how may hostages will be released after how many days.
  • Hamas are also seeking a longer pause: 12 weeks as opposed to 6 in an effort to end the fighting completely – something Israel will only consider for the release of all the hostages.

Looking ahead: There is concern that the Israeli – Egyptian tension could lead Egypt to recall its ambassador from Tel Aviv.

• However, there is still hope that Israel and Egypt can resolve their disagreements and maintain their crucial strategic ties.
• Further precise operations across Gaza are anticipated as intelligence shows Hamas fighters rebuilding their capacity in other areas vacated by the IDF.
• Despite further evidence of UNRWA-Hamas connections, the IDF is determined to continue to distribute aid to the residents of the Gaza Strip.