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Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Key background
  • Hamas is an Islamist Palestinian nationalist movement which currently governs the Gaza Strip. It is proscribed by the UK and in the majority of western countries.
  • Its primary state backers are Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. It is also active in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon.
  • Since seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has continuously launched attacks against Israel and weaponised civilian infrastructure by embedding itself into schools, mosques, and hospitals.
  • Hamas’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel killed 1200, and over 250 hostages were subsequently taken to the Gaza Strip.

Updated June 3, 2024

Israeli officials respond to President Biden

  • According to Biden, the plan would have three stages:
    • In the first, a cease-fire would be imposed for six weeks, during which Israeli forces would withdraw from populated areas in Gaza. Hamas would release female, elderly and sick hostages and Israel would release hundreds of Palestinian security prisoners. Gazans would return to their homes.
    • Phase Two would see all remaining living hostages released, including male soldiers. Israel would withdraw its remaining forces from Gaza. A permanent cease-fire would be effected if Hamas lived up to its obligations.
    • Phase Three would see a major project of reconstruction begun in Gaza.
  • President Herzog thanked President Biden for his speech and his “ongoing efforts to bring about the release of all the hostages held by Hamas in Gaza.“
  • Herzog added on X, “I told Prime Minister that I will give him and the government my full support for a deal which will see the release of the hostages. We must not forget that according to Jewish tradition, there is no greater commandment than redeeming captives and hostages – especially when it comes to Israeli citizens who the State of Israel was not able to defend and protect. It is our inherent obligation to bring them home within the framework of a deal that preserves the security interests of the State of Israel.”
  • On Saturday the Prime Minister’s Office released a statement saying, “Israel’s conditions for ending the war have not changed: the destruction of Hamas’s military and governing capabilities, the freeing of all hostages and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel. Under the proposal, Israel will continue to insist these conditions are met before a permanent ceasefire is put in place. The notion that Israel will agree to a permanent ceasefire before these conditions are fulfilled is a non-starter.”
  • The plan received support from Minister Gantz who commented saying, “We are committed to continuing to move forward with the proposal to get back our hostages as was formulated by the negotiations team and approved unanimously by the war cabinet. In light of developments, the war cabinet must be convened as soon as possible together with the negotiating team to formulate the next steps.”
  • However, Ministers Smotrich and Ben Gvir attacked the proposal  and threatened to leave the government. “I just spoke to the prime minister and made clear to him that we will have no part in a government that agrees to the proposed outline and ends the war without destroying Hamas and returning the hostages,” said Finance Minister Smotrich. Ben Gvir added, “This is a reckless deal, one that represents a victory for terrorism and a danger for the State of Israel. Agreeing to a deal like this is not ‘total victory’ but total defeat.”

Context: 124 hostages remain in Hamas captivity, now for 241 days. This number was reduced by one this morning after the murdered body of Dolev Yehud, a 35-year-old resident of Kibbutz Nir Oz, was identified. It had previously been assumed that he had been taken hostage.

  • President Biden’s address was an endorsement of a compromise proposal, that he gave Israel the credit of agreeing to.
  • One of the aims of the speech was to place additional pressure on Hamas and signal to the US pro-Palestinian supporters that Israel is prepared to compromise. If this deal fails it will be on Hamas.
  • President Biden’s presented a broad roadmap to end the war, but it isn’t clear whether there is a detailed work plan.
  • It is unusual for a US president to present a plan in someone else’s name. However, it appears that the Israeli war cabinet approved the broad outline of this plan. However, many issues remain unresolved. The most problematic gaps include:
    • Reaching a permanent ceasefire / ending the war completely, whilst Hamas remains in power.
    • Lack of clarity over how many of the hostages are still alive, and whether Israel was negotiating for live captives or dead bodies.
  • Another concern relates to President Biden’s confidence that the war has been won and Hamas no longer poses a threat. Whilst rockets are still fired out of Gaza and the Hamas leadership is still in control the Israel public does not perceive this as the ‘total victory’ they were promised.
  • In parallel large public protests have continued. Tens of thousands of Israelis gathered in Tel Aviv on Saturday night, demanding that the government secure a deal to release the hostages.
  • Biden reiterated that the ceasefire could also lead to a cessation of Hezbollah attacks from the north as well as a normalisation agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
  • Many view this speech as a final effort of President Biden to reach a wider deal. There is a limited window over the summer, after which all US focus will be on the presidential election.
  • Biden’s speech brought into sharp relief the existing divisions within the Israeli government. Already at the end of last week, Gantz’s party announced they were submitted a vote of no confidence in the current government – an usual move for a party that is currently part of the government.
  • Both Ministers Gantz and Eisenkot have been deeply frustrated by the government’s inability or refusal to present a vision for Gaza ‘the day after’ Hamas. In early May, Gantz publicly threatened to leave the government unless Netanyahu committed to a plan.
  • At that time, Gantz presented the Security Cabinet with a demand to formulate a plan which should include six objectives: the hostages’ return; toppling Hamas and demilitarising the Gaza Strip; deciding on an alternative regime for Gaza; a return home by the residents of northern Israel by September 1; promoting normalisation; and endorsing the plan to broaden military service to all Israelis.
  • However, even if Gantz were to resign from the government and take his party’s MKs with him, this would still leave the coalition with the governing majority (64 seats in a 120-seat Knesset) it enjoyed before October 7th.

Looking ahead: Efforts to reach a ceasefire are set to continue, whilst the sides await a Hamas response to the Israeli proposal.

  • Minister Gantz had set a deadline of June 8th for Israel to present a strategic plan or he would quit the government. There is speculation whether the adoption of this plan ensures he will remain in the government in order to develop and implement the ceasefire.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu has been invited to address a joint meeting of both Houses of the US Congress. He will be the first foreign leader to address both Houses of Congress for a fourth time.

May 31, 2024

National Unity moves to dissolve Knesset

What’s happened: A bill to dissolve the Knesset and hold fresh elections was introduced to the Knesset yesterday by National Unity Party Chairperson MK Pnina Tamano-Shata.

  • Tamano-Shata said of the move: “October 7 was a tragedy that requires us to return and receive the people’s confidence and to form a broad and stable unity government that will be able to lead us safety to face the huge challenges in security, in the economy and primarily, in Israeli society.”
  • A National Unity Party statement then said “the person who chose to dismantle the emergency government at the country’s hardest hour was Netanyahu, who chooses, time after time, his personal interest over the national interest. Israel needs a government that promotes unity, not incitement, returning the hostages, returning the residents of the north home, and strives to real victory, not to slogans. Netanyahu, it is still not too late to come to your senses—either we win together, or you continue on your own in the divide and conquer method.”
  • A Likud statement in response said “at the height of war, Israel needs unity, not division, dismantling the government is a prize for Sinwar, capitulation to international pressure and undermines the efforts to free our hostages.”

Context: National Unity’s move to dissolve the Knesset signifies a highly unusual instance of a party trying to unseat a government of which it is currently a part. Previously a part of the opposition, Gantz took his party into the government on an emergency basis early in the war in Gaza. Both he and Gadi Eisenkot immediately joined both the security cabinet and the smaller war cabinet (Eisenkot as an ‘observer’).

  • In a speech earlier this week, Eisenkot, whose son was killed early in the fighting in Gaza, said “it is clear that this government needs to be replaced as soon as possible.” He called for elections to be held sometime between September and December this year.
  • Eisenkot also attacked the government’s narrative around ‘total victory’ and the operation in Rafah. “Anyone who says that we’ll disband three battalions in Rafah and after that be able bring back the hostages is sowing false illusions,” he said. “This is a much more complex event. The truth is that it will take three to five years to stabilise [Gaza], and then many more years to establish another regime.”
  • Eisenkot also commented on the level of influence he and Gantz were now having in government. “I can’t ignore that recently our influence has been reduced,” he said. “Political and other considerations have been inserted into decisions that we voted on behind closed doors.”
  • Both Gantz and Eisenkot have been deeply frustrated by the government’s inability or refusal to present a vision for Gaza ‘the day after’ Hamas. In early May, Gantz publicly threatened to leave the government unless Netanyahu committed to a plan.
  • At that time, Gantz presented the Security Cabinet with a demand to formulate a plan which should include six objectives: the hostages’ return; toppling Hamas and demilitarising the Gaza Strip; deciding on an alternative regime for Gaza; a return home by the residents of northern Israel by September 1; promoting normalisation; and endorsing the plan to broaden military service to all Israelis.
  • Even if Gantz were to resign from the government and take his party’s MKs with him, this would still leave the coalition with the governing majority (64 seats in a 120-seat Knesset) it enjoyed before October 7th.
  • The bill thus has no chance of passing unless MKs from other government factions can be persuaded to vote in favour. It is highly unlikely that five MKs from Netanyahu’s Likud can be persuaded to do so, even though some have recently echoed Gantz’s frustration that a commission of inquiry into the events of October 7th has not yet been formed.
  • It is also possible, though not likely, that coalition MKs from amongst the ultra-Orthodox factions United Torah Judaism and Shas could vote in favour of dissolving the government.
  • Elements from within these factions have recently threatened to quit the government unless legislation is passed securing the right of ultra-Orthodox Israelis to avoid being drafted into the IDF.
  • Legislation to codify this exemption was considered this time last year, but not floated due to opposition from within the government and fears that Israel’s Supreme Court could strike it down as being an infringement of the principle of equality.
  • Given their differences with Netanyahu over the prosecution of the war, pressure from opponents of Netanyahu and the Likud for Gantz to quit the government has been mounting of late.
  • After months of polling showing National Unity well ahead of Likud, and Gantz comfortably leading Netanyahu on suitability to be prime minister, Channel 12’s latest poll from yesterday showed a shift. The two parties are now much closer – National Unity on 25 and Likud on 21 – while Netanyahu now leads Gantz 36 to 30 percent on who would make the better prime minister.
  • Polls also indicate that a 60 percent majority of National Unity voters believe the party should quit the government.
  • This week, Yisrael Beiteinu Chairman Avigdor Lieberman initiated a so-called opposition ‘war room’ with Leader of the Opposition Yair Lapid, and Gideon Saar, who withdrew his New Hope faction from the government after he was excluded from the war cabinet.

Looking ahead: Large public protests demanding that the priority should be securing the return of the hostages, now held for 237 days, have coalesced with wider anti-government protests demanding fresh elections. The protests are likely to continue and perhaps grow.

  • Newly-elected Labour leader Yair Golan will be seeking to harness that protest energy, and some of the highly organised infrastructure which developed during last year’s anti-judicial reform protests, into greater Knesset representation for the Israeli left and other anti-Netanyahu factions.
  • On Sunday, a nine judge panel of the High Court of Justice will convene to hear the government’s plans for the question of the ultra-Orthodox and the military draft.
  • When Gantz made his ultimatum to Netanyahu, he gave June 8 as a deadline to formulate a ‘day after’ plan. Analysts are now suggesting he might withdraw National Unity sooner.
JO

May 28, 2024

Israel opens investigation into strike in Rafah

What’s happened: Israel’s independent General Staff Fact-Finding and Assessment Mechanism is to investigate Sunday’s IAF strike in Rafah.

  • The airstrike in the Tel Sultan area targeted and killed two senior Hamas officials in the city, including the commander of Hamas’s West Bank headquarters, but tragically resulted in the deaths of dozens of displaced Gazan civilians sheltering in tents when fires spread to the temporary shelters.
  • The Hamas health ministry, in unverified figures, reports 45 Palestinians dying as a result of the strike.
  • The IDF said “the attack was carried out against terrorists who are a target for attack, in accordance with international law, using precision munitions, and based on intelligence indicating the use of the area by Hamas terrorists.”
  • “Before the strike,” it said, “a number of steps were taken to reduce the risk of harming uninvolved civilians during the strike, including conducting aerial surveillance, the deployment of precise munitions by the IAF, and additional intelligence information. Based on these measures, it was assessed that there would be no expected harm to uninvolved civilians.”
  • “In addition, the strike did not occur in the Humanitarian Area in Al-Mawasi, to which the IDF has encouraged civilians to evacuate.”
  • Speaking in the Knesset yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “in Rafah, we have evacuated about one million civilians. Tragically, despite our immense efforts to avoid harming non-combatants, an incident occurred yesterday. We are investigating it thoroughly and will learn from it, as is our policy and longstanding conduct. For us, any non-combatant hurt is a tragedy; for Hamas, it is a strategy. That is the core difference.”
  • A US National Security Council spokesperson said, “Israel has a right to go after Hamas, and we understand this strike killed two senior Hamas terrorists who are responsible for attacks against Israeli civilians, but, as we’ve been clear, Israel must take every precaution possible to protect civilians.”
  • Separately, an Egyptian soldier died yesterday following a clash with Israeli soldiers near the Rafah border crossing.
  • The precise circumstances remain unclear, with Israel suggesting that fire began on the Egyptian side, while Egyptian sources suggest that the Israelis opened fire, possibly in a confrontation with Palestinians.
  • Elsewhere in Gaza, troops located large amounts of military equipment and weaponry and dismantled an explosives manufacturing facility in Jabaliya.
  • The IAF, meanwhile, struck over 75 targets in the Strip on Sunday, including a “launch site in Jabaliya from which launches toward the city of Ashkelon in Israel were carried out throughout the war.”
  • Troops also dismantled an 800-metre-long tunnel in the central Strip.

Context: Israel remains under attack from multiple sources. On Sunday, eight rockets were launched from the Rafah area towards central Tel Aviv, the first time sirens have been heard in Tel Aviv since January.

  • The rockets were fired around 800 metres from where IDF troops where operating in Rafah. This demonstrates that Hamas retains the ability to launch long-range rockets. The timing of the launches is likely due to the advances the IDF is making in Rafah and a desire to use the weapons before troops disable the launch sites.
  • Over 90 Hezbollah rockets were fired from Lebanon on northern Israel yesterday. A barrage of around 30 rockets was fired at Kiryat Shmona yesterday evening and a similar sized barrage fired at Mount Meron.
  • The IDF struck back at the rocket launchers used to launch the Mount Meron barrage.
  • Pro-Iranian Iraqi militias yesterday launched two drones at Eilat, following similar attacks last week. IAF fighter jets and the IDF Aerial Defence Array downed both drones off the coast of the city, with no injuries or damage reported.
  • Sirens sounded in the western Galilee after two UAVs crossed into Israeli territory from Lebanon. One was intercepted while the other fell. No injuries or damage were reported.
  • The targets of the Rafah attack were Yassin Rabia, commander of Hamas’s West Bank headquarters, and Khaled Najjar, another senior member of the same unit.
  • Israel said Rabia “managed all of the military arrays of the West Bank headquarters… was involved in the transfer of funds for terror purposes and directed attacks by Hamas operatives.”
  • The IDF’s General Staff handles investigations into both mistakes and potentially criminal actions during wartime.
  • Israel’s Military Advocate General, Major-General Yifat Tomer-Yerushalmi said yesterday that since the beginning of the war, “approximately seventy investigations have been launched regarding incidents that raised suspicion of criminal offences.”
  • The General Staff Fact-Finding and Assessment Mechanism is independent from the IDF.
  • COGAT reports that continues to flow into the Gaza Strip. 378 trucks were inspected and transferred yesterday through the Kerem Shalom and Erez West crossings.
  • “78 trucks of flour from the World Food Program were transferred to supply the organisation’s bakery operations across the Gaza Strip, and 154 aid trucks from Egypt made their way from the Rafah crossing to the Kerem Shalom crossing.”
  • Israel has presented Egypt with evidence supporting its version of events around the cross-border fire. Both sides seem keen to put the incident behind them.
  • Tensions between Israel and Egypt were already high due to Egypt’s opposition to an Israeli operation in Rafah. Cairo has feared that fighting in Rafah would lead to pressure on its border from civilians fleeing the area.
  • It has also sought to maintain control over both the Philadelphi corridor and the Rafah-Egypt crossing. There are both financial motivations for this, and a sense of wanting to protect its pride, which would be damaged by revelations that this border has been porous to smuggling from Egypt into Gaza.
  • Since the operation in Rafah began, the IDF has discovered ten smuggling routes along the Philadelphi corridor, an embarrassing example of Egypt being either unable or unwilling to stem the tide of smuggling. Six of the routes have already been decommissioned by the IDF.
  • In over 45 years of a so-called ‘cold peace’ between the two countries, while civilian ties have never transpired as might have been hoped, security cooperation has remained solid. It is in both countries’ interest for this to continue.

Looking ahead: The head of Mossad met with Qatari and US officials over the weekend. They now wait to see if Hamas will return to talks.

  • The basic positions of both Israel and Hamas appear irreconcilable. Israel insists that an agreement not explicitly provide for an end to fighting; Hamas that it does. It remains to be seen if wording can be formulated to satisfy both.
  • A previous Egyptian proposal calls for three stages, the last of which would see a one-year ceasefire committed to by both sides

May 24, 2024

Rockets pound north after strike on top Hezbollah weapons manufacturer

What’s happened: Yesterday saw another round of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in the north.

  • A barrage of some 30 Hezbollah rockets were fired on northern towns. Some were intercepted and others landed in open areas. No injuries resulted, though a bushfire was sparked in the Hula Valley region.
  • Hezbollah confirmed responsibility and said their target was the Northern Command military base near the city of Safed.
  • Later, a further barrage of at least five rockets was launched at the Beit Hillel area. Again, no injuries were caused, though one rocket struck near the Maayan Baruch Junction.
  • The rocket fire followed an IAF strike in Nabatieh in southern Lebanon which killed Hezbollah weapons manufacturer Muhammad Ali Nasser Faran yesterday. The IDF said “the elimination of Ali Nasser Faran is part of the IDF and Israeli security forces’ activities to impede Hezbollah’s stockpiling and build-up of weapons designated for use in attacks against Israeli civilians and communities.”
  • IDF fighter jets also struck multiple Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, including military structures in the areas of Ayta ash Shab and Rab El Thalathine, and a military structure and two Hezbollah observation posts in the area of Odaisseh.
  • Also yesterday, IDF troops apprehended two suspects adjacent to the security fence in the northern Golan Heights. The suspects were observed by IDF troops and apprehended before crossing the security fence.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu visited Israel’s Northern Command, where he received an operational briefing by its head, Maj.-Gen. Ori Gordin.
  • “We are constantly in action on the northern front,” said Netanyahu. “As of now we have eliminated hundreds of Hezbollah militants and we are still poised – even today… We have detailed, important, and even surprising plans. But I will not share these plans – which are designed to do two things, 1) to restore security to the north, and 2) to restore the residents safely to their homes – with the enemy. We are determined to achieve both of them together.”
  • Elsewhere, from the east, three drones were launched at Israel last night and in the early hours of this morning by the Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq. All were shot down by Israeli fighter jets before they were able to enter Israeli airspace, though part of an interceptor missile landed near Safed, causing a fire.

Context: Since October 7th, Hezbollah has launched near-daily multi-rocket (and sometimes missile) attacks on northern Israel, on both military posts and civilian communities.

  • 10 civilians and 14 IDF soldiers have been killed on the Israeli side, while Hezbollah, which unlike Hamas confirms the deaths of its members, has listed 312 members killed. 61 operatives from other groups, including Palestinians based in Lebanon, have also been killed.
  • The increased conflict has raised fears of all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah for the first time since the Second Lebanon War ended in 2006. The prevailing assessment, however, is that both sides have calibrated their activity to stop short of all-out war.
  • Hezbollah has maintained a threshold of violence at a level it deems will divert resources away from Gaza to the northern front, but stopping short of necessitating an immediate Israeli ground offensive.
  • In comparison with previous rounds of fighting with Israel, Hezbollah is increasingly deploying more sophisticated weaponry, including Iranian-produced Almas anti-tank guided missiles with a 10-kilometre range and the shorter range Burkan with its heavy payload. Iranian-produced Hezbollah UAVs have also been used.
  • Israel’s response to these attacks has largely been a combination of air and artillery strikes into Lebanon targeting Hezbollah’s military leadership and infrastructure. While primarily destroying targets in the south of the country, some Israeli airstrikes have been reported as far north as Baalbeck and the Beqaa Valley.
  • However, Israel views its current paradigm of 80,000 citizens being internally displaced due to Hezbollah’s aggression as untenable and intolerable. The longer they remain unable to safely return to their homes, the higher the risk of a military escalation in southern Lebanon.
  • While the US and France have spearheaded a series of diplomatic efforts to defuse this situation, they have thus far proved unsuccessful.
  • Israel continues to insist on the robust implementation of UN Resolution 1701 passed at the end of the Second Lebanon War in 2006. Most significantly, it stipulates Hezbollah forces, be pushed back as far as the Litani River ensuring Israeli civilian are out of range of Hezbollah’s accurate Kornet anti-tank missiles.
  • Any move away from the border on the part of Hezbollah fighters will need to be monitored and sustainable, since Hezbollah has a track record of initially complying with such deconfliction steps, before then moving its fighters back closer to the border.
  • The killing of Faran follows the IDF saying on Monday that it killed the commander of Hezbollah’s coastal rocket and missile unit, Qassem Saqlawi. Saqlawi was targeted in a drone strike while driving in the Tyre area in southern Lebanon, the military said.
  • The Safed military base has been a regular target for Hezbollah rockets. In February, one Israeli was killed and seven others injured in a multi-rocket attack.
  • On Monday, the IDF confirmed that three drones launched by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq were downed by fighter jets and a Sa’ar 4.5-class missile ship, according to the IDF. Iran-backed groups in Iraq, Yemen, and , have claimed to have launched dozens of drones at Israel since October 7th.

Looking ahead: Fears of further rocket attacks have prompted the Knesset to pass an emergency law restricting this year’s Lag B’Omer festivities. Traditionally, somewhere in the region of 100,000 religious Israeli Jews would have made a pilgrimage to the gravesite of second-century rabbi Shimon Bar Yochai in northern Israel.

  • Jewish Heritage Minister Meir Porush said: “Unlimited access would mean tens of thousands of people arriving and a terrible catastrophe could happen if the place is targeted with rockets. We must not take such risks with human lives.”
  • The pilgrimage site is located close to the Mt Meron air traffic control base, a frequent Hezbollah target. Last week, the group fired 60 rockets at the base, most of which were intercepted but with some causing minor damage.
  • The mayor of Tiberias has also ordered the closure of the tomb of Rabbi Akiva, lest pilgrims originally intending to travel to Mt Meron divert there instead

May 23, 2024

Hope for renewal of hostage negotiations, as video released

Hostage video: A short video was released yesterday showing the kidnap of five female IDF spotters from the Nahal Oz base on October 7th.

  • The footage of the abduction of Liri Albag, Karina Ariev, Agam Berger, Daniella Gilboa, and Naama Levy was shown under the auspices of the Hostages and Missing Families Forum and with the permission of each of the women’s families.
  • The footage shows the five in clear distress, and some of them bloodied. Terrorist captors are heard saying “our brothers died because of you. We will shoot you all.”
  • The Forum described its content as a “damning testament to the nation’s failure to bring home the hostages… The Israeli government must not waste even one more moment – it must return to the negotiating table today!”
  • Liri Albag’s father Eli, speaking after the video was screened, said “I want you to broadcast this footage every day at the start of the news… until somebody wakes up.”
  • “If this film doesn’t change the thinking, this is the last bullet we have, to tell them. What else do you want? What else can we do? If that doesn’t influence them…”
  • President Herzog said “the world must look at this cruel atrocity. Those who care about women’s rights must speak out. All those who believe in freedom must speak out, and do everything possible to bring all of the hostages home now.”
  • In further efforts to reach a hostage/ceasefire deal, the war cabinet has unanimously approved a mandate for Israel’s negotiating team to return to negotiations with Hamas. Hostage Coordinator Maj. Gen. (res.) Nitzan Alon is said to have drafted new negotiations terms, in a bid to bridge the gaps between Hamas’s demands and previous Israeli proposals. The government insists that any deal stop short of a firm commitment to end the war.

Context: The comments from family members indicate that the timing of the footage’s release is based on a desire to put pressure on the political echelon to secure the release of the remaining hostages.

  • Hostage families have been active in widespread protests urging the government to reach a deal with Hamas, even at the cost of ending the war.
  • Channel 12 reports that Defence Minister Gallant first showed the video to all war cabinet members in March. Once hostage negotiations stalled, the families asked that the footage be shown to all members of the wider security cabinet, too.
  • The channel reports that Cabinet Secretary Tzahi Braverman refused to allow the video to be shown in the security cabinet meeting room, citing technical reasons, and that only five security cabinet ministers chose to watch at their own initiative: Miri Regev, Gila Gamliel, Itamar Ben Gvir, Chili Tropper and Yisrael Katz.
  • Earlier this month, negotiations fell apart due to Hamas intransigence, including:
    • Its insistence on ending the war completely, which would perpetuate Hamas rule.
    • Its failure to confirm how many of the hostages were still alive, and whether Israel was negotiating for live captives or dead bodies.
    • Its insistence on being able to chose which Palestinian prisoners were to be released, without an Israeli veto.
    • The sequencing and length of a ceasefire, and at which stage hostages would be released.
  • Israel has previously released a 47-minute video of the October 7th massacres based on Hamas bodycam and cctv footage. Due to the horrific nature of the footage, it has restricted viewings to private audiences. Netanyahu is thought to be considering releasing a shortened version to a wider audience, in a bid to remind international audiences why this war began, and the brutal nature of Hamas.

Context of recognition: Israel has responded angrily to the decision of Ireland, Spain, and Norway to formally recognise a Palestinian state.

  • In response, Israeli Foreign Minister Katz said recognition “sent messages to the Palestinians and to the entire world: terror pays… After Hamas carried out the biggest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust; after it committed horrific sex crimes that the world has seen, these countries have chosen to reward Hamas and Iran and recognize the Palestinian state. Israel will not take this lying down.”
  • The position of the UK and US has traditionally been that recognition should come not before, but as a result of, bilateral negotiations between the two sides aimed at ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
  • The Israeli view remains that, absent such a successful negotiation, and until the Palestinian national movement moves to explicitly recognise the right of Israel to exist as a Jewish state, recognition is both premature and a reward for terror and incitement.
  • The disparity of statements from European capitals changing nothing on the ground, could serve to foster further resentment and violence when Palestinians realise that recognition is not leading to a political process.
  • In recent months, with Israel’s consent Norway has served as a conduit through which Israel has transferred some of the tax revenues it collects on behalf of the Palestinian Authority (PA) –  about NIS 200-250 million (£42.8-53.5 million) per month. In the wake of Norwegian recognition, Finance Minister Smotrich said he would cease transferring the funds.
  • By moving to recognise, he said, “Norway… cannot be a partner to anything related to Judea and Samaria. I plan to halt money transfers to it and to demand all the money that has been transferred [so far] to be returned.”
  • If the Norwegian route is closed, the US will be keen to find an alternative arrangement to ensure that the PA does not collapse.

Gaza Strip: The IDF last night announced the deaths of three IDF soldiers killed in action in the northern Strip, while the IAF hit roughly 130 targets yesterday, including terrorist cells, military structures, observation posts, and additional terrorist infrastructure.

  • The IDF also reported that in Nuseirat, “following IDF and ISA intelligence, the IAF carried out a precise strike on a compound located inside an UNRWA school where Hamas terrorists –  including an anti-tank missile operative and a Nukhba terrorist – were operating.”
  • “The compound that was struck also contained weapons, including mortars and explosives, as evidenced by the numerous secondary explosions after the strike. The strike was carefully planned and carried out using precise munitions to mitigate any harm to civilians in the area.”
  • In Rafah, says the IDF, “soldiers located and destroyed multi-barrel rocket launchers that were ready to fire toward Israeli territory. The launch sites were located in eastern Rafah along the Philadelphi Corridor.”
  • “The troops are currently operating based on information regarding terror targets in the areas of ‘Brazil’ and ‘Shaboura’, while making every effort to prevent harm to civilians and after the civilian population in the area was evacuated. The activity began with a preliminary series of aerial strikes against Hamas terror targets in Rafah.”
  • In Jabaliya, in the northern Strip, the IDF continues close-quarters combat and yesterday eliminated a number of terror targets.
  • Also in the northern Strip, the past few days have seen targeted raids in the area of Beit Hanoun, designed to “eliminate terrorists, locate and strike terror infrastructure, below and above the ground.” It was in these operations that the three IDF troops fell.

Context: The IDF has found multiple instances of Hamas using UNRWA facilities for terrorist purposes. Only last week, 15 Hamas fighters were killed in another Israeli strike on a UNRWA school, also in Nuseirat.

  • The IDF continues to operate at various points across the Strip. Its return to areas vacated previously indicates the extent to which Hamas and other terror organisation remain able to regroup and continue to pose a threat.
  • Defence Minister Gallant continues to press the case for an Israeli vision for a post-Hamas Gaza. On a visit to Jabaliya yesterday, he told troops: “Your job is to strike at Hamas and to kill the terrorists. Our job is to reach a situation in which we replace the Hamas regime. While you are fighting and are doing your job, we will bring about us replacing the Hamas regime and finding it an alternative that isn’t Hamas.”

Looking ahead: Other countries may also recognise a Palestinian state, possibly including Malta, Slovenia, and Belgium.

  • Qatari media claims that Egyptian officials have made contact with both Israel and Hamas in a bid to restart negotiations.

May 22, 2024

Israel continues Rafah operation with US understanding

What’s happened: Israel is continuing its operations in Hamas’s last stronghold in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, and at a scale with which the Biden Administration, previously opposed to any operation there, is satisfied.

  • Israeli media reports US officials saying that Israel has listened to US concerns and refined its plans accordingly.
  • The IDF is reporting that almost a million of the estimated 1.4 million Gazans previously residing in the city have left for other parts of the Strip.
  • According to Palestinian sources, the IDF this morning dropped flyers over Rafah announcing the expansion of safe zones to which displaced persons can move. Many residents have moved north to tent cities which have been erected in Khan Yunis and Al Mawasi.
  • According to the IDF, in Rafah troops continue to “carry out targeted raids on the terrorist infrastructure and buildings from which Hamas terrorists fired at our forces. During this activity, the soldiers eliminated dozens of terrorists in eastern Rafah who tried to approach our forces.”
  • IDF troops “carried out an operation to destroy terrorist infrastructure. During the operation, the soldiers searched a building and located many weapons including protective equipment, explosives, weapons, anti-tank missiles, equipment and tools intended for breaching fences.”
  • “During searches in the area, the soldiers of the battalion located a tunnel shaft containing a weapons warehouse with short-range anti-tank missiles, grenades, weapons, and explosives. This warehouse was intended to be used to carry out terrorist attacks against our forces. The tunnel shaft and the weapons were destroyed.”
  • On a visit to Jabaliya, a city in the northern Strip which the IDF had previously left but to which it has now returned, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi said “we are dismantling the military wing of Hamas. We want to bring our hostages home alive, and we want to bring those who, unfortunately, are no longer alive back for burial in Israel. These are very, very important missions. The message is that even if there was a place we didn’t reach last time, and now we are reaching it, no place, no matter how many explosives they put in the walls and how many shafts they booby-trapped, no place will withstand an offensive by an IDF combat team.”
  • In Jabaliya, the IDF says that raids were carried out on terrorist infrastructure in the agricultural areas. “During the raids, the soldiers located many weapons including vests, an FN MAG machine gun, hand grenades, explosives, and intelligence materials. During extensive searches and guided by intelligence, the troops arrived at a mosque where they located missiles and rocket launchers, which were destroyed.”
  • In Khan Yunis, the Israeli Air Force struck and killed Hamas terrorist Ahmed Yasser Alkara. Alkara took part in the October 7th Massacre in communities in southern Israel and was said by the IDF to be “a significant anti-tank missile operative who carried out attacks on IDF troops during the war.” The IDF says that this operation was delayed when a child was observed near Alkara’s position, and only resumed once the child had moved away.
  • In another operation, says the IDF, “IAF fighter jets directed by intelligence eliminated five Hamas terrorists operating from inside the Faami Aljerjawi School in Daraj Tuffah in the northern Gaza Strip. Among the terrorists that were eliminated were Fadi Salim, Head of Propaganda in Hamas’ Gaza Brigade, as well as three Hamas intelligence operatives and an additional Nukhba terrorist.”
  • Meanwhile, COGAT says that Israel’s facilitation of the entry of into the Strip continues. The IDF says that 450 trucks were transferred through the Kerem Shalom Crossing and the Erez West Crossing yesterday, with 650 truckloads waiting for collection and distribution by international aid agencies on the Gazan side of the crossings.

Context: The US had previously referred to an Israeli operation in Rafah as a “red line”. However, the thus far limited – what the IDF calls “precise” – operations in the city appear to have assuaged the Biden Administration’s concerns, to a degree.

  • US reassessment is thought be based on the movement out of civilians and the increased flow of .
  • Israel continues to stress that victory in its war with Hamas depends upon defeating its remaining battalions in Rafah, capturing its senior leadership, and securing the border crossing to prevent the smuggling of weapons.
  • A high priority also remains the recovery of the remaining hostages, many of whom are thought to be held in Rafah. The government’s hope remains that pressure exerted on Hamas by the Rafah operation also makes a hostage deal more likely.
  • In order to achieve this, the IDF is currently deploying its highest number of troops across Gaza since January.
  • Humanitarian agencies continue to warn of the critical shortage of aid reaching the Gaza population.
  • The IDF cites failures within Gaza itself as being the cause. Aid, it says, is “awaiting distribution due to the lack of logistical capabilities and manpower gaps in the international aid agencies, leading to the accumulation of humanitarian aid at the crossings.”
  • A senior White House official yesterday criticised Egypt for obstructions on its end. “We do not believe that aid should be held back for any reason whatsoever. Kerem Shalom is open. The Israelis have it open. And that aid should be going through Kerem Shalom,” they said.
  • The Egyptians closed the crossing to aid earlier this month after Israel began operating in Rafah and assumed control of the Gazan side of the crossing.
  • The Israeli government also says that Hamas is disrupting the effective distribution of aid, either siphoning supplies off for themselves or in one instance detaining and holding Jordanian trucks. In the absence of non-Hamas affiliated Palestinian partners, aid distribution challenges are likely to continue.
  • Far-right members of the Israeli cabinet and Security Cabinet have made no secret of their desire to see Israeli civilian resettlement in Gaza.
  • Any such move is forcefully opposed by more moderate government voices. Last week, Defence Minister Gallant attempted to rule out not only civilian resettlement, but any post-war Israeli administration of the Strip whatsoever.
  • Gallant said he would not serve in a government which sought to impose Israeli rule and called on Netanyahu to move swiftly to a plan for a post-war Palestinian administration.

Looking ahead: Footage will be released later of the October 7th kidnapping of five female IDF spotters from the Nahal Oz base. The families of all five have agreed to the screening.

  • Prime Minister Netanyahu has ruled out Israeli resettlement of Gaza. Such a move was “never in the cards,” Netanyahu claimed to CNN, “and I said so openly. Some of my constituents are not happy about it, but that’s my position.”
  • Instead, Netanyahu called for “sustained demilitarisation of Gaza,” “a civilian administration that is run by Gazans who are neither Hamas nor committed to our destruction,” and “a reconstruction of Gaza, if possible, done by the moderate Arab states and the international community.”
  • The prime minister also once more moved to rule out the formal involvement of the Palestinian Authority (PA) as the future governing force in the Strip. Despite others’ pushing for this, he said he would not allow an organisation to assume control which “still teaches its children to seek the destruction of Israel. That’s not my position. I want a different future for Israelis and Palestinians alike.”
  • Despite US efforts, moves towards normalisation with Saudi Arabia appear to have stalled, with Netanyahu seemingly unwilling to meet Saudi demands over the creation of a Palestinian state.

May 21, 2024

US and UK oppose International Criminal Court arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant

What’s happened: The prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) yesterday applied for an arrest warrant for Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gallant relating to alleged crimes committed in the prosecution of Israel’s war in Gaza.

  • Karim Khan, the British prosecutor, accused the two Israelis of “causing extermination, causing starvation as a method of war including the denial of humanitarian relief supplies, [and] deliberately targeting civilians in conflict.”
  • “We submit that the crimes against humanity charged were committed as part of a widespread and systematic attack against the Palestinian civilian population pursuant to State policy. These crimes, in our assessment, continue to this day.”
  • Khan also issued warrants for Hamas’s two most senior Gazan leaders, Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif, and its foreign leader Ismail Haniyeh. The three are sought for overseeing extermination, murder, hostage-taking, rape, and sexual assault.
  • “We submit that the crimes against humanity charged were part of a widespread and systematic attack against the civilian population of Israel by Hamas and other armed groups pursuant to organisational policies,” Khan said.
  • Reaction from across the Israeli political spectrum was near-uniformly angry and incredulous.
  • Netanyahu said: “The absurd and mendacious order by the prosecutor in The Hague isn’t directed only against the Israeli prime minister and the defence minister. It is directed against the State of Israel in its entirety… With what insolence do you dare to compare Hamas’s monsters with the soldiers of the IDF, the most moral army in the world?”
  • War Cabinet Minister Gantz called Khan’s request “a crime of historic proportions.” “The State of Israel,” he said, “is waging one of the just wars fought in modern history following a reprehensible massacre perpetrated by terrorist Hamas on the 7th of October.”
  • “While Israel fights with one of the strictest moral codes in history, while complying with international law and boasting a robust independent judiciary, drawing parallels between the leaders of a democratic country determined to defend itself from despicable terror to leaders of a bloodthirsty terror organisation is a deep distortion of justice and blatant moral bankruptcy.”
  • Opposition Leader Lapid also condemned the decision, saying “it is not possible to issue arrest warrants against Netanyahu, Sinwar and Deif. There is no such comparison, we cannot accept it and it is unforgivable,” he said, before calling the decision “a terrible political failure.”
  • President Herzog said, “the announcement of the prosecutor at the ICC is beyond outrageous, and shows the extent to which the international judicial system is in danger of collapsing.”
  • “Taken in bad faith, this one-sided move represents a unilateral political step that emboldens terrorists around the world, and violates all the basic rules of the court according to the principle of complementarity and other legal norms.”
  • President Biden also responded angrily. “The ICC prosecutor’s application for arrest warrants against Israeli leaders is outrageous,” he said. “And let me be clear: whatever this prosecutor might imply, there is no equivalence—none—between Israel and Hamas. We will always stand with Israel against threats to its security.”
  • Secretary of State Blinken, similarly, said “we reject the prosecutor’s equivalence of Israel with Hamas. It is shameful. Hamas is a brutal terrorist organisation that carried out the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust and is still holding dozens of innocent people hostage, including Americans.”
  • Blinken added there were “deeply troubling process questions” surrounding the announcement. “Despite not being a member of the court, Israel was prepared to cooperate with the prosecutor. In fact, the prosecutor himself was scheduled to visit Israel as early as next week to discuss the investigation and hear from the Israeli government. The prosecutor’s staff was supposed to land in Israel today to coordinate the visit.”
  • “Israel was informed that they did not board their flight around the same time that the prosecutor went on cable television to announce the charges. These and other circumstances call into question the legitimacy and credibility of this investigation.”
  • Prime Minister Sunak’s office criticised the deicsion, while the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office also hit out at the warrants, saying “we don’t believe that seeking warrants will help get hostages out, get aid in, or deliver a sustainable ceasefire. This remains the UK’s priority… As we have said from the outset, we do not think the ICC has jurisdiction in this case.”
  • Deputy foreign minister Andrew Mitchell told Parliament that “the fact that the prosecutor has applied for arrest warrants to be issued does not directly impact, for example, on UK licensing decisions, but we will continue to monitor developments.”
  • The German and Czech governments also spoke out against the warrant requests.

Context: Israeli officials have never before been issued with warrants from the ICC. Similarly, experts noted that this was the first time in its 21 years that the Court has sought to indict “Western” leaders.

  • Israel is not among the 124 state signatories to the Rome Statute, which outlines the ICC’s jurisdiction, and therefore its writ and jurisdiction do not run to Israel itself.
  • Nor can Netanyahu or Gallant face arrest when travelling in other countries not subject to the writ of the ICC, such as the US. Many of Israel’s European allies, however, including the UK, are subject to the court’s authority, meaning that they could face arrest if travelling there.
  • The UK has joined the US in rejecting the jurisdiction of the court to consider Israeli conduct in the war due to its not being a member.
  • In his remarks, Blinken also argued that the move was premature, with the court supposed to intervene only when domestic courts have failed to do so. “The ICC was established by its state parties as a court of limited jurisdiction,” he said. “Those limits are rooted in principles of complementarity, which do not appear to have been applied here amid the prosecutor’s rush to seek these arrest warrants rather than allowing the Israeli legal system a full and timely opportunity to proceed.”
  • “In other situations, the prosecutor deferred to national investigations and worked with states to allow them time to investigate. The prosecutor did not afford the same opportunity to Israel, which has ongoing investigations into allegations against its personnel.”
  • One of the arguments made against last year’s government programme of judicial reform was that the strength of the Israeli system’s independence represented an important bulwark against the intervention of international courts.
  • From Khan’s remarks when announcing the warrant applications, it seems that the alleged denial or hampering of to Gaza would form a cornerstone of any case. He called on Israel to “immediately allow access to in Gaza at scale.”
  • Israel has long denied that it is a blockage to sufficient aid reaching Gaza, and that Hamas looting and international failure are the true cause of privation.
  • Prior to his appointment as ICC prosecutor, Khan served as a defence attorney, representing clients including Liberian dictator Charles Taylor and the son of Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi.
  • Khan reportedly relied here upon expert advice from a panel of international legal experts, including American-Israeli scholar Theodor Meron, a Holocaust survivor who once served as legal counsel to Israel’s Foreign Ministry and as Israeli ambassador to Canada. The panel is said to have agreed with Khan’s view unanimously.
  • Prior to October 7th and the launching of Israel’s response in Gaza, the ICC was already investigating the conduct of both sides in 2014’s Israel-Hamas war (Operation Protective Edge).

Looking ahead: Khan’s warrants will now be considered by a three-judge ICC panel in ICC Pre-Trial Chamber I: Presiding Judge Iulia Motoc (Romania); Reine Alapini-Gansou (Benin) and Socorro Flores Liera (Mexico).

  • It is rare for this pre-trial process to reverse the recommendation of the prosecutor. In only two of the 31 cases currently before the court has it failed to confirm warrants.
  • In response to the announcement, the senior leadership of the National Security Council, the Justice Ministry, the chief military prosecutor and the Foreign Ministry all began deliberations on its impact and how to respond. Israeli officials will now decide whether or not to cooperate with the process.

May 17, 2024

Israel-UK-US expand delivery of aid to Gaza

What’s happened: The UK has announced that its first maritime aid delivery for the Gaza Strip has set sail from Larnaca, Cyprus.

  • Comprising approximately 100 tones of shelter coverage kits for Gazan displaced persons, it will be delivered to the US-built temporary pier off the coast of Gaza City.
  • Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said: “The UK has been working around the clock with our allies and partners to ensure more aid gets into Gaza via all possible routes – land, air and sea. We are leading international efforts with the US and Cyprus to establish a maritime aid corridor. Today’s first shipment of British aid from Cyprus to the temporary pier off Gaza is an important moment in increasing this flow.”
  • The Royal Fleet Auxiliary’s vessel, Cardigan Bay, has supported the pier’s construction by housing hundreds of American soldiers and sailors who were involved in building it.
  • First proposed in March, the US Navy and Army have now finished building a temporary pier which will facilitate the maritime delivery of to the Gaza Strip. Initially, it will have the capacity to deliver 90 truckloads of aid a day, rising to 150. Aid agencies will oversee local distribution, and the US government has confirmed that none of its troops will be present in the Gaza Strip.
  • The IDF confirmed its involvement in aiding in the pier’s construction, saying that “preparations were carried out over the last few weeks by the Engineering and Construction Department of the Ministry of Defense, the IDF, the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories and in cooperation with the U.S. Military.”
  • The new maritime delivery corridor will complement overland aid delivery efforts which remain critical. Israel continues to facilitate these efforts and has opened additional inspection routes in the West Bank to increase the rate at which aid trucks can be searched before travelling to the Gaza Strip.
  • This week’s shipments contained tents for civilians temporarily evacuating from Rafah, 38 trucks of flour, and 76,000 litres of fuel.
  • On Thursday, according to the IDF, “365 trucks entered the Gaza Strip through the Kerem Shalom Crossing operated by the Ministry of Defence’s Land Crossings Authority, as well as the Erez Crossing, following thorough security checks.”
  • Elsewhere, another overland crossing from Israel into the Gaza Strip has been opened at Zikim. It will primarily facilitate the entry of trucks carrying aid from Ashdod Port once they have undergone security checks on the Israeli side of the border.
  • Further, according to the IDF, the Tarqumiyah and Beitunia crossings in The West Bank were opened “for the first time since the beginning of the war in order to expand the inspection routes of trucks going to the Gaza Strip, as part of efforts to increase the rate of inspection of aid.”
  • Far-right Israeli activists are continuing their efforts to disrupt the overland passage of aid through Israel into the Gaza Strip, especially in the West Bank. On Wednesday, it was reported that a commercial truck was mistakenly identified as being part of an aid convoy and attacked by extremist activists who were arrested at the scene. These efforts are being coordinated by a group called “Tzav 9”, and non-violent protestors continue to demonstrate against the delivery of aid to the Gaza Strip as long as Hamas still holds Israeli hostages.

Context: Israel is now fully engaged in facilitating aid to the civilian population, whilst determined in its continued fight against Hamas.

  • At the first stage of the operation in Rafah, Israel sent messages encouraging the civilian population to move through the humanitarian corridor into safe zones.
  • Prior to the operation, an estimated 1.4 million Palestinians were sheltering in Rafah, many of whom had fled fighting in the north and centre of the Gaza Strip. The IDF estimates that 700,000 Gazans have so far left through corridors.
  • The UK sees itself as having played a critical role in facilitating the maritime corridor between Cyprus and the Gaza Strip, and will continue doing so as long it operates. It will also continue its efforts to “unlock more [land] routes to get vital aid in”.
  • Israel has evacuated the eastern third of Rafah, and as these efforts expand to the rest of the city it is almost certain hundreds of thousands of its residents will travel north to tent cities which have been erected in Khan Yunis and Al Mawasi.
  • Prior to the operation, Israel oversaw the construction of tens of thousands of temporary shelters. This latest UK shipment supports those efforts.
  • While Israel continues to facilitate the entry of aid into the Gaza Strip, internal distribution challenges remain the primary obstacle to ensuring it reaches those in need.
  • The Israeli government also claims that Hamas are disrupting the effective distribution of aid, either siphoning supplies off for themselves or in one instance detaining and holding Jordanian trucks. In the absence of non-Hamas affiliated Palestinian partners, aid distribution challenges are likely to continue.
  • Although aid is meant to be distributed for free, according to veteran commentator Ehud Yaari, talking on Channel 12 News, Hamas has earned half a billion dollars from exploiting the aid since the beginning of the conflict.
  • The resumption of commercial haulage to Gaza is significant. Limited commercial trucks, primarily Gazan businessmen, have only been recently reintroduced, stopped since October 7th. As of Wednesday, 52 had travelled into the Gaza Strip.

Looking ahead: The UK Government said its aid would be distributed in Gaza “as soon as feasible.”

  • Sunak said of aid that “we know that more is required, particularly via land, which is why alongside intensive work to get hostages out of Gaza we will continue efforts to unlock more routes to get vital aid in – helping people in desperate need.”
  • On an aerial tour of Gaza and in meetings with divisions active in Rafah yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu affirmed Israel’s commitment to continuing to operate in the city. “The battle in Rafah is critical,” he said. “It is not only the remaining battalions there but their escape and supply pipelines.”

May 16, 2024

Defence Minister Gallant voices concerns for the ‘day after’ in the Gaza Strip

What’s happened: Israel’s Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant, yesterday gave a surprising statement yesterday declaring that he would not continue in office were Israel to govern the Gaza Strip after the war.

  • Gallant called instead for Palestinian control of the Strip with international assistance, and hit out at Prime Minister Netanyahu for not announcing a plan for the ‘day after’.
  • “We must dismantle Hamas’ governing capabilities in Gaza,” Gallant said. “The key to this goal is military action, and the establishment of a governing alternative in Gaza. In the absence of such an alternative, only two negative options remain: Hamas’ rule in Gaza, or Israeli military rule in Gaza.”
  • “The meaning of indecision is choosing one of the negative options – it would erode our military achievements, lessen the pressure on Hamas, and sabotage the chances of achieving a framework for the release of hostages.”
  • “Since October, I have been raising this issue consistently in the Cabinet, and have received no response. The end of the military campaign must come together with political action.  The ‘day after Hamas’ will only be achieved with Palestinian entities taking control of Gaza, accompanied by international actors, establishing a governing alternative to Hamas’ rule. This, above all, is an interest of the State of Israel.”
  • “Unfortunately, this issue was not raised for debate and worse, an alternative was not raised in its replacement… I must reiterate – I will not agree to the establishment of Israeli military rule in Gaza. Israel must not establish [its own] civilian rule in Gaza.”
  • “I call on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make a decision and declare that Israel will not establish civilian control over the Gaza strip, that Israel will not establish military governance in the Gaza strip, and that a governing alternative to Hamas in the Gaza strip will be raised immediately.”
  • Gallant’s statement drew an instant public rebuttal from the prime minister, as well as angry denunciations from far-right cabinet colleagues, some of whom demanded that Netanyahu fire Gallant.
  • Gallant was supported by fellow War Cabinet Minister Gantz and his National Unity Party.
  • In an interview with US network CNBC yesterday, Netanyahu did address a post-Hamas Gaza Strip, saying “What do you need then to reconstruct Gaza to have a different future so Gaza doesn’t pose a threat to Israel anymore? You need to have three things. One, sustained demilitarisation and that I think, can only be done by Israel intervening when it can when it sees another terrorist resurgence. The second thing you need is a civilian administration that is not Hamas and not beholden to the destruction of Israel. And I think that could be done with the assistance of Arab countries and the international community. And the third thing you need is reconstruction. That I think can be done with the help of important players in the international community… But you’ve got to clear Gaza of Hamas… What I’d like to see is a non-Hamas civilian administration with an Israeli military responsibility, overall military responsibility.”
  • Meanwhile, in Gaza, five Israeli soldiers were killed and another seven wounded in a tragic incident of friendly fire in northern Gaza’s Jabaliya yesterday. Initial IDF investigations indicate that a tank fired two shells at a building in which the soldiers were present.
  • This follows the announcement yesterday that a first solider had died in Israel’s operation in the southern town of Rafah, Hamas’s final stronghold in the Gaza Strip.
  • The IDF continues its precision operations in Rafah, from where a projectile was fired at the Kerem Shalom crossing yesterday, landing in an open area.
  • Elsewhere in the Strip, the IDF has finished its operations in Zeitoun. The IDF said it had “eliminated dozens of terrorists in encounters and airstrikes, destroyed terrorist infrastructure and located many weapons, including dozens of AK-47s, grenades, magazines and intelligence management assets of the Hamas terrorist organisation.”
  • In the north, meanwhile, Hezbollah continued to launch multiple attacks on northern Israel yesterday, with the IDF confirming that a sensitive military facility in the Lower Galilee was hit with an explosive drone last night.
  • In response, the IDF hit back at Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, including some in the north-east of the country.

Context: Gallant’s comments lay bare the divisions within the senior Israeli leadership over the future of Gaza’s post-war governance.

  • A senior US official said last night that Gallant’s statement also reflected the Biden Administration’s position.
  • The US has, for some time, called for Palestinian control of the Gaza Strip post-Hamas, and has expressed frustration with the Israeli Government for its refusal to present a clear ‘day after’ policy reflecting this. It’s own preference has been for a reformed Palestinian Authority (PA) to assume control. (For analysis of the government’s limited ‘day after’ plan, as well as more detailed proposals from Israeli experts, see BICOM’s recent research paper.)
  • Earlier in the day, US Secretary of State Blinken, speaking in Kiev, had said “we do not support and will not support an Israeli occupation. We also of course, do not support Hamas governance in Gaza … We’ve seen where that’s led all too many times for the people of Gaza and for Israel. And we also can’t have anarchy and a vacuum that’s likely to be filled by chaos.”
  • It is not only US support which depends, seemingly, on Israeli support for a Palestinian administration in Gaza. Current and putative Arab allies, like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, are also said to be unwilling to assist with the reconstruction of the Strip unless it is in cooperation with a Palestinian authority.
  • Egypt, the UAE, and Morocco are said to be considering a US proposal to contribute to a peacekeeping force in Gaza aimed at ensuring that Hamas does not return in the event of its defeat. All three, however, are said to be conditioning their participation on US recognition of a Palestinian state.
  • Netanyahu has consistently ruled out replacing ‘Hamastan” with “Fatahstan” (a reference to Fatah, the PA’s dominant faction). Gallant’s remarks constitute the most direct challenge from within the government to the prime minister since October 7th, and came only hours after Netanyahu had said publicly that discussions of the day after where premature.
  • In response to Gallant, Netanyahu then said: “After the terrible massacre of October 7, I instructed to destroy Hamas. IDF fighters and the security branches are fighting for this. As long as Hamas remains in place, nobody else will enter to run Gaza’s civilian affairs. Certainly not the Palestinian Authority.”
  • Netanyahu’s long-standing principled rejection of the PA is based on three main concerns:
    • Its consistent policy of ‘pay for slay’, which sees Palestinian terrorists in Israeli prisons paid commensurate with the amount of Jews they have killed.
    • Incessant incitement and antisemitic content in Palestinian media and school curricula.
    • ‘Lawfare’ seeking to delegitimise Israel in international institutions, which does nothing poster peace and understanding.
  • Gallant’s frustrations, as implied by his own words, also echo those of the military establishment, which has for months been angered by the lack of a credible post-war plan. Last weekend, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi is said to have rounded on Netanyahu in a meeting on similar lines.
  • Netanyahu is thus caught between the military, along with the more sober, centrist members of the war and security cabinets, who agree with the US line that Israel should have neither a military nor civilian presence in a post-war Strip, and more hard-line right-wing elements of the government who argue not only against Palestinian governance post-war, but in favour of Israeli re-settlement of the Strip.
  • Israeli reports suggest that the timing of Gallant’s remarks was partly due to fears that these right-wing ministers were exerting pressure on Netanyahu to move for the establishment of a military government in Gaza imminently.
  • This latest episode is another illustration of the unwieldy nature of Netanyahu’s coalition, and his need to balance often wildly divergent internal opinion. Gallant is a member of Netanyahu’s own Likud party, making the criticism even more pointed.
  • This is not the first time that Netanyahu and Gallant have clashed. In March 2023, at the height of protests over the government’s judicial reform programme, Gallant was briefly fired by Netanyahu before being swiftly reinstated.
  • Hezbollah’s attack in the Lower Galilee represents the latest sign of the escalation of the conflict on Israel’s northern front. An attack on a site 35 kilometres from the Lebanese border, and on an installation which is designed to spot aerial threats from long ranges represents Hezbollah striking deeper into Israel on a sensitive site.
  • As well as this incident of long-range fire, short-range fire persists, with over 40 rockets fired at the northern Golan this morning.

Looking ahead: Conversations are expected to take place in Cairo between senior Israeli intelligence officials and Egyptian counterparts, in an effort to reduce tensions with Egypt over the Rafah Crossing and Israel’s operation in the city.

  • The IDF has sent an additional commando brigade to Rafah, in anticipation of continued or expanded operations there

May 15, 2024

Continued fighting across Gaza, with two further cases of UNRWA being compromised

Gaza Strip: The precision operation in Eastern Rafah has been extended into three more neighbourhoods, with the IDF claiming to have killed around 100 terrorists.

  • This morning, the IDF announced the death of Sgt. Ira Yair Gispan, a 19 year-old resident of Petah Tikva, who was killed in action, the first Israeli fatality in the Rafah operation.
  • There have been two further examples of Hamas operating in close proximity to the UN.
  • During IDF operational activity in eastern Rafah on Saturday, terrorists were identified in UNRWA’s central logistics compound alongside UN vehicles. The IDF released footage  of armed terrorists next to UN vehicles and in the area of UNRWA’s logistics warehouse compound in eastern Rafah.
  • This is a central point for UNRWA’s distribution of aid.
  • IDF Spokesperson, Rear Admiral Hagari said, “Today, we revealed unusual footage of armed terrorists next to UN vehicles, which we located a few days ago, and shooting inside an UNRWA compound in eastern Rafah. We forwarded the findings to senior members of the international community, and called on the UN to urgently investigate the connection between UNRWA’s logistics centres to Hamas operatives by their vehicles.”
  • In a second incident in Nuseirat yesterday, a joint IDF and Shin Bet announcement noted, “a Hamas war room embedded inside an UNRWA school used by Hamas commanders was targeted in a precise strike by the IDF and ISA; Over 10 Hamas terrorists were eliminated in the strike.”
  • Adding, “the war room was used by terrorist operatives in Hamas’ military wing. The strike was carried out using precise munitions in order to minimise harm to uninvolved civilians. The Hamas war room had been used by the terrorist organization to plan multiple attacks against IDF troops in central Gaza in recent weeks. The Nukhba terrorists situated inside the war room took part in the October 7th Massacre and carried out ambushes and attacks on IDF troops in the Gaza Strip. In the IAF strike, approximately 15 operatives from terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip were eliminated, more than 10 of which were part of Hamas.
  • In addition, several other soldiers sustained  injuries fighting Hamas terrorists elsewhere in the Strip.
  • The IDF have killed several terrorists in face-to-face fighting. They also found, confiscated and destroyed rocket launchers and other weapons.
  • Despite IDF operations, five rockets were fired at Sderot, Ibim and Nir Am yesterday. Three of the rockets were intercepted and two landed in open areas.
  • Elsewhere in Gaza, IDF troops have also intensified operations in Jabaliya. According to the IDF, “Over the past day, IDF troops in the area have engaged in intense battles with dozens of terrorist cells and eliminated a large number of terrorists. In one of the joint ground and aerial strikes in the area, the terrorist cell that fired toward the city of Sderot  on Tuesday was eliminated.”
  • Over the past day, IAF aircraft struck and eliminated approximately 80 terror targets including military compounds, weapons storage facilities, missile launchers, observation posts, and additional terrorist infrastructure.
  • Whilst this morning, the IDF concluded part of its operational activity in the Zeitoun area.

Northern front: Once more, throughout Tuesday, alarms were sounded as several anti-tank missiles were launched into northern Israel.

  • Since then, over 100 rockets have been fired towards Israel.
  • In Adamit in the western Galilee, an IDF soldier was moderately injured and four additional soldiers were lightly injured.
  • In the familiar pattern, in response Israel Air Force jets struck a Hezbollah military structures.
  • In addition, the IDF announced they “eliminated the terrorist Hussain Ibrahim Mekky in the area of Tyre, southern Lebanon. Mekky was a senior field commander in the Hezbollah terrorist organisation on the southern front, who was responsible for the planning and execution of numerous terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians and territory since the start of the war.”
  • Hezbollah officially confirmed his death, also noting that he was an associate of Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the Iranian official who was killed in Damascus in April.
  • Hezbollah also confirmed he is their 300th fatality since October.

Context: Although now being expanded, Israel is still limiting its operations in Rafah to pinpoint missions. Concern for the safety of any hostages being held in Rafah, along with the over one million civilians, is allied to a desire to reduce tensions with Egypt which have been inflamed over Cairo’s opposition to any operation in Rafah.

  • It is estimated that close to half a million people have left Rafah, most of whom were encouraged to leave by the IDF in the eastern sector, but also many from other parts of the city that have chosen to leave.
  • Israeli-Egyptian tensions over an operation in Rafah have intensified in recent weeks.
  • Egypt recently announced its support for South Africa’s case at the ICJ accusing Israel of genocide.
  • Israel’s peace deal with Egypt is one of its most significant regional accords, and Egyptian officials have been careful not to indicate that it is at risk. “The situation is difficult,” said one senior Egyptian official this week, “but we haven’t reached, and I hope we do not reach, that stage.”
  • Israeli officials were quoted expressing shock at the news of Egypt’s support for the South African case. “It isn’t the statement about The Hague that troubles us,” said one, “but the fact that it is part of a problematic whole. We are in a situation we haven’t been in in the past in the relations between the countries. Egypt is showing us that it no longer has patience for us. That is sad and worrisome.”
  • The Gaza conflict has had a consequences for Egypt, including the loss of income due to the Houthis attacks which has caused many of the ships to choosing an alternative route, thus diminishing the use of the Suez canal.
  • The operation in Rafah risks Gazan population attempts to flee into Egypt. Already around 100,000 Gazans have entered into Egypt via the Rafah border crossing, and there is heighted concern for a further influx.
  • Last week, a Jewish Canadian businessman, (who also held an Israeli passport) Ziv Kiefer, was murdered in a terror attack Alexandria. This primarily reflects badly on Egypt, and troubles their image as their other major source of income is tourism.
  • From the Israeli perspective, there is frustration that the Egyptians failed in their role as mediators over the latest round of hostage talks. The terms that Hamas agreed to, were partly a result of Egypt over accommodation of Hamas demands including:
    • Hamas cannot guarantee how many of the 33 female soldiers, sick and elderly are still alive.
    • Hamas refusing Israel’s insistence to have a veto over certain heavyweight terrorists that will be released in exchange.
    • The sequencing of the deal: how may hostages will be released after how many days.
    • Hamas are also seeking a longer pause: 12 weeks as opposed to 6 in an effort to end the fighting completely – something Israel will only consider for the release of all the hostages.

Looking ahead: There is concern that the Israeli – Egyptian tension could lead Egypt to recall its ambassador from Tel Aviv.

  • However, there is still hope that Israel and Egypt can resolve their disagreements and maintain their crucial strategic ties.
  • Further precise operations across Gaza are anticipated as intelligence shows Hamas fighters rebuilding their capacity in other areas vacated by the IDF.
  • Despite further evidence of UNRWA-Hamas connections, the IDF is determined to continue to distribute aid to the residents of the Gaza Strip.

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