What’s happening: A deal has been reached for the release of 602 Palestinian detainees who were initially scheduled to be released last weekend.

• Israel refused to release them on time following a series of Hamas violations of the ceasefire agreement.
  • Israeli anger was especially piqued by the theatrical ‘ceremonies’ Hamas was staging for hostage releases which were viewed by Israel as humiliating and grotesque.
  • The initial retiurn of an anonymous Palestinian woman, instead of the body of murdered hostage Shiri Bibas, hardened the Israeli stance even more (Shiri’s body was later repatriated). 
  • There was further fury at the psychological torture of filming two hostages to witnesses a release ceremony of other hostages.
• The  new deal will see the 602 detainees released this week in exchange for the bodies of four slain Israeli hostages. This marks the end of the first stage of the agreement.  
• President Herzog eulogised Oded Lifshitz at his funeral yesterday. “I stand here, on the soil of your homeland, as President of the State of Israel, on behalf of the State of Israel, I ask you—beloved Oded, I ask Yocheved and your dear family—for forgiveness. Forgiveness that the State of Israel did not protect you, your family, and your kibbutz. Forgiveness that in the face of such inhuman cruelty, you were left to stand alone. Forgiveness that we did not manage to rescue you and bring you and all your friends home safely, out of the clutches of the murderers. I ask forgiveness.”
• Lifshitz’s 86-year-old wife Yocheved, herself a liberated hostage, also spoke. “Our abduction and your death have shaken me to the core. We fought all through the years for social justice, for peace. To my sorrow, we were hit by a terrible blow by those we helped on the other side. I stand here staggered to see the number of graves, and the terrible destruction of our community that was completely abandoned on October 7^th.”
• The funeral of Shiri Bibas and her two children Ariel and Kfir is underway in southern Israel. The three will be buried in a private ceremony in Tzohar, a town near the family’s home in Nir Oz, the kibbutz in which they lived and from which they were abducted on October 7^th 2023.
• Ofri Bibas, sister of Yarden, said earlier today: “Through the window, I see today a broken nation. We will not rise or be rehabilitated until the last of the hostages is home. Thank you all.”
• The IDF released another of its operational investigations of October 7^th, this one from the massacre at Kibbutz Nahal Oz. The inquiry detailed the waves of attacks that morning and the army’s unpreparedness for fending off the attack as well as missed signals in the hours leading up to the attack that should have, but did not, lead to a higher state of alert.
• Further operational inquiries are due to be released in the coming days, including of the events at the nearby Nahal Oz outpost where 53 soldiers were killed (some of which was leaked to Israeli media yesterday), as well as at Kibbutz Kfar Aza and Moshav Netiv Haasara. The inquiry into the events at the Nova festival is due later.

Context: There is no sign from either of the warring parties or the various mediators that Israel and Hamas are close to reaching an agreement on the implementation of the second phase of the ceasefire deal.

• US envoy Steve Witkoff has been trying to broker an extension of the first phase of the ceasefire. Such an extension would see more exchanges of hostages for prisoners, particularly hostages who are considered to be in need of immediate medical care.
• The remaining hostages are all male and under 50, and the liberation of each one of these would presumably require Israel to pay a higher “price” in the number of Palestinian prisoners released in exchange. Furthermore, it is unlikely that an extension of the first stage would cover all living hostages as Hamas could be assumed to want to hold on some in order to attain its larger political goals in the war.
• If no agreement is reached to extend the first stage Israel is preparing to renew intensive fighting with the backing of the US. It is hoped that the credibility of this threat  will persuade Hamas to  extend the deal.     
• A renewed outbreak of fighting, should the ceasefire collapse, will happen in a much different global strategic environment than that which obtained when the war broke out in October 2023. The Iranian “ring of fire” which surrounded Israel in 2023 has been broken in Lebanon and Syria, (but not Yemen), while the US administration today will not set limits on Israeli firepower.  
• Beyond the government, other Israeli politicians have presented their own “day after” plans for Gaza. Yair Golan, leader of the left-wing Democrats, called for a moderate Palestinian force to govern Gaza while maintaining freedom of action for the IDF.
• Leader of the Opposition Lapid presented a plan which called for Egypt to take responsibility for Gaza for 15 years during which Egypt’s $155 billion foreign debt would be wiped clean by the international community. Lapid explained that Israel cannot agree for Hamas to remain in power, the Palestinian Authority is incapable of administering Gaza, Israeli occupation is undesirable and a state of ongoing chaos is a grave security threat to Israel. At the same time, the Egyptian economy is on the brink of collapse and poses a threat to the stability of Egypt and the entire Middle East. Lapid said that during the 15 year period, Gaza would be rebuilt and conditions for self-government created.
• Lapid suggested that the current ceasefire be completed until the release of all the hostages, Egypt take control over Gaza via a UN Security Council resolution, defined as a “guardianship,” with the goal of turning Gaza Strip over to the PA Authority following a process of reform and de-radicalisation, with measurable criteria. At the same time, a reconstruction process would begin under Egyptian supervision, while Saudi Arabia and the Abraham Accord signatories would participate in work groups and the US would invest in Gaza. He also called for Egypt to allow every resident of Gaza who wishes to leave and has where to go to do so in an regulated manner.

Looking ahead: The first phase of the ceasefire is expected to be completed tomorrow, with the release of four bodies of dead hostages. According to the agreement Israel will simultaneously release the 602 prisoners.    

• Of the prisoners due to be released:
  • Dozens of them were serving life sentences for murdering Israelis.
  • Some of them are responsible for dispatching  the horrific suicide bombing attacks from the mid-1990s.
  • Fifty of them are serving life sentences, and 47 of them are terrorists who were freed in the Shalit deal and were subsequently reincarcerated after they violated the terms of their release

Hostages – prisoners: On Saturday Hamas released the final tranche of 6 living hostages, in the framework of the first stage of the agreement. However Israel decided to delay the release of the 620 Palestinian prisoners who were scheduled to be freed in exchange.

• The Prime Minister’s Office explained that the delay was in response to Hamas’s “repeated violations” of the agreement, including “the ceremonies that humiliate our hostages and the cynical exploitation of our hostages for propaganda purposes.”
• Israel announced that these Palestinian prisoners would only be released after guarantees were received that future hostage releases would proceed without humiliating ceremonies. 
• Israel’s decision to delay the release of Palestinian prisoners was made after Hamas belatedly turned over the body of the late Shiri Bibas, after they had initially transferred the corpse of a Palestinian woman instead. 
• The latest trigger for the decision was the latest Hamas propaganda film of two hostages, Guy Gilboa-Dalal and Evyatar David, who were brought to witness the release ceremony from inside a vehicle before being taken back into captivity. 
• On the one hand, the video was proof that the two hostages are alive, but the psychological torture angered Israeli political leaders who insisted on a response.    
• The Gilboa-Dalal and David families gave their consent to air the video. Guy’s father, Ilan, told Kan TV, “I saw my son for the first time in 16 months. I heard his voice for the first time. For me, that gives me a bit of air, knowing that he’s okay. He doesn’t appear to be wounded. I think it needs to be seen, to see the abuse that they’ve endured, to bring them out to see their friends they had been with for 500 days leaving, and then to take them back to the tunnels.”
• The 620 Palestinian prisoners include hundreds of terrorists, dozens of whom were serving life sentences for murdering Israelis. Some of them are responsible for the horrific suicide bombing attacks from the mid-1990s. Fifty of them are serving life sentences, and 47 of them are terrorists who were freed in the Shalit deal and were subsequently rearrested and incarcerated after they violated the terms of their release. 
• The four hostages who were released on Saturday after more than 500 days in Gaza suffered from torture, physical violence, psychological abuse and severe starvation while in captivity. Tal Shoham, Omer Shem Tov, Omer Wenkert and Eliya Cohen were forced to drink sea water during their first months in captivity. Often they were denied food and water for several days. 
• The other two, Hisham a-Sayed, whom Hamas held captive for a decade, and Avera Mengistu, who was held in captivity for nearly ten years, both suffer from mental illnesses. 

Negotiations: Minister Dermer is in the US meeting with senior officials to try and formulate an agreement to extend the ceasefire and ensure the release of more hostages.

• The White House supports the Israeli decision to delay the release of the prisoners because of what it referred to as Hamas’s barbaric treatment of the hostages and the humiliating parade of the Bibas family’s coffins. US National Security Council Spokesman Brian Hughes said the delay was an appropriate response adding that President Trump would support whatever course of action Israel chooses regarding Hamas. 
• In response Hamas has declared that it would not hold negotiations with Israel until the prisoners were released. 
• There is heightened concern over the fate of the final phase of the first stage of the deal, which is meant to secure the release of four bodies of hostages killed in captivity, and is due to take place later this week.   
• The second stage is considered significantly more difficult as it is mean to include a permanent ceasefire and Hamas forced to relinquish its governance over Gaza and their leadership exiled abroad. 
• With all these conditions potentially unbridgeable at present, Israel is preparing for the possibility of having the first stage of the deal extended. 
• Negotiations over an extension will focus on how many terrorists will be released in exchange for the next hostages and an increase of goods entering Gaza. Hamas categorises the remaining hostages as young men of military age and will seek a higher ratio of prisoners for their release.    
• This option of an extension could be favourable ahead of Ramadan, which will start next week. It’s a period in which even Hamas will have no desire to resume the fighting. 

Looking ahead: President Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, is expected to return to Israel on Wednesday in an effort to extend the first stage of the agreement with Hamas and to secure the release of more hostages. 

• Sixty-three hostages remain in Gaza, living and dead.
• Witkoff is expected to continue his consultations in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
• The funeral for Shiri Bibas and her two young sons will also take place on Wednesday at a cemetery in southern Israel. 

What’s happened: Israel and the US have accused Hamas of violating the terms of the ceasefire, as the IDF announced that one of the four bodies released by Hamas yesterday was not, as the terrorist organisation claimed, that of Shiri Bibas.

• The bodies of Shiri’s children, Ariel and Kfir, (and the corpse of Oded Lifshitz) have been identified following their release yesterday, with an Israeli forensic team concluding that they had been brutally murdered in captivity. 
• The examination rejected Hamas’s claim that the children had been killed by an Israeli air strike, as the terrorist organisation claimed.
• In saying that the returned body was not that of Shiri Bibas, the IDF also confirmed that no DNA match had been found between the body and any other hostage, male or female.
• Authorities consider this “a very severe violation” of the agreement and have demanded Hamas return Shiri along with all the remining hostages.
• Trump’s envoy for hostage affairs, Adam Boehler, told CNN last night that Hamas’s decision to transfer to Israel the body of someone who was not a hostage was “shocking and a clear violation of the agreement.” He added that Hamas must release all the hostages or face “total annihilation.”
• Meanwhile, security forces have launched a manhunt for the terrorists who placed bombs yesterday on four buses in the greater Tel Aviv areas of Bat Yam and Holon. Three bombs exploded in empty buses and two more were discovered before they detonated. The three buses were completely destroyed, but no one was injured. It is believed the bombs were meant to explode this morning. The bombs weigh five kg and were fitted with timers. Hamas has claimed responsibility.

Context: The Israeli public, reeling from the prior confirmation of the Bibas family’s death, have been further disgusted by the gruesome spectacle of Gazans celebrating around the return of the four coffins yesterday, now compounded with the evidence that one of the bodies was not even a hostage.   

• The explosions in southern Tel Aviv are a visceral reminder that Hamas remains determined to kill more Israelis and has the capacity to carry out attacks.
• It is assumed that the terrorists that placed the explosives came from the West Bank. On one of the unexploded bombs was written, “Revenge from the Tulkarm refugee camp.”
• The working assumption is that the timers on the bombs were mistakenly set for 9:00 PM instead of 9:00 AM, a time at which they would have likely killed or injured hundreds of people.
• Throughout the ongoing IDF operation in the West Bank, the army has exposed bomb-making factories and storage of dozens of IEDs (improvised explosives devices), presumably similar to those planted on the buses.
• The IDF has now further augmented its West Bank presence, adding three battalions and preparing to expand its offensive operations.
• According to the Shin Bet, they have successfully prevented 45 potential bombing attacks already this calendar year. This in addition to over 100 planned shooting and other “major terror attacks.” 
• Talks on the second stage of the hostage deal are supposed to start in the middle of next week. This will mark the first time that officials from Trump’s team will lead the process (the first stage was secured at the end of the Biden administration).  The president’s envoy Witkoff will run the process, with Minister Dermer leading the negotiations for Israel.  
• There is a consensus on the Israeli side that in order to declare the end of hostilities, Israel will demand the end of Hamas governance, the Strip’s complete demilitarisation, and the exiling of the Hamas leadership. The spectacle of dozens of masked gunmen on display at the release ceremonies underscores the remaining challenge left to defeat Hamas.  
• On the surface, the US accepts Israel’s position, but there is general scepticism as to whether Hamas can be cajoled into such an agreement.
• Therefore, it remains a possibility the sides will instead (or at least in the short term) look to extend the terms of the first stage. This could serve both sides’ interests as more of the remaining hostages are returned in exchange for the release of more Palestinian prisoners (that include convicted murderers) and increased aid. This could also coincide with Ramadan, due to begin at the end of next week. Conventional thinking suggests both sides have an interest in keeping the Muslim holy month as peaceful as possible, but even that assumption may not fit the Hamas agenda.            
• Another factor helping to pressurise Hamas is the full US support for Israel resuming the war if negotiations fail.  
• In parallel, representatives from Egypt, Jordan, UAE and Qatar are meeting in Saudi Arabia to discuss an Arab plan for reconstructing the Gaza Strip, as an alternative to President Trump’s plan.

Looking ahead: Prime Minister Netanyahu will be holding emergency security consultations today, following the explosions in Tel Aviv.

• Israel is still expecting six living hostages to be released on Saturday. They include Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, who have been held by Hamas since entering Gaza in 2014 and 2015.
• Also due to be released are Omer Shem-Tov, Omer Wenkert, and Eliya Cohen, who were kidnapped after attending the Nova festival; and Tal Shoham who was captured while visiting his wife’s family on Kibbutz Be’eri.
• Early next week, the bodies of four more deceased hostages are due to be handed over. This will mark the end of the first phase of the agreement.

What’s happening: This morning Hamas handed over the bodies of four hostages to Israel. According to Hamas, the four are: Oded Lifshitz, Shiri Bibas, Ariel Bibas, and Kfir Bibas.

• Israel will confirm their identification after they are processed at the National Institute for Forensic Pathology later today.
• At the handover “ceremony” in the presence of the Red Cross, coffins were proudly displayed with October 7 listed as the “date of arrest.” Gory propaganda posters decorated the stage, and a crowd of onlookers came with families to enjoy the festive atmosphere.
• All four hostages were taken alive from their homes on the morning of October 7th, 2023.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu said in the video that today “will be a very difficult day for the State of Israel. A rattling day. A day of grief. We are bringing home four of our beloved hostages, dead. We embrace the families, and the heart of the entire nation is torn. My heart is torn, and yours as well. And the entire world’s heart ought to be torn because here we see who it is that we are dealing with, what we are dealing with, what monsters [we are dealing with].  We ache, we hurt but we are also determined to ensure that nothing like this ever happens again.”

Context: This latest release still leaves 69 hostages inside Gaza, now held for 503 days.

• Oded Lifshitz was 83 years old when he and his wife were abducted from their home during the massacre at Kibbutz Nir Oz. His wife Yocheved was released from captivity in 2023.
• He was one of the founders of the Kibbutz, a fluent Arab speaker and was known as a passionate campaigner for coexistence. He also volunteered to transport sick Palestinian children to receive medical care inside Israel.  
• Yocheved Lifshitz recorded a video message saying, “Oded was a great fighter for peace. He had wonderful relations with the Palestinians. One of the most painful things for me is that they betrayed him. They dragged him down through depths of the underworld after he struggled his entire life on their behalf.”
• Oded’s daughter, Sharone, lives in London and recently said of her father: “He really believed that we can be better than our base most hateful instinct. I think the fact he has had to experience this at such a late stage of his life when his health was not so strong is very painful.”
• Shiri Bibas was kidnapped with her two boys, four-year-old Ariel and nine-month-old Kfir during the rampage at Nir Oz. Her husband Yarden Bibas was also abducted that day. Videos of a mass of Gazan civilians descending on him and beating him were featured prominently in Israeli media, as were the videos of a terrified Shiri clutching her two boys as their home was looted and burned.
• It’s impossible to overstate the emotional impact of the return of the Bibas children on the Israeli public. Pictures of the redheaded boys have been found everywhere in Israel since October 7, the orange colour of the boys’ hair becoming a symbol early on for the plight of all hostages.
• The Bibas family have again called on the public not to eulogise or mourn Shiri, Ariel, and Kfir unless and until there is a positive forensic identification of their remains.
• Many Israelis were disheartened that beyond Jewish communities and pro-Israel circles there was not more outrage at the kidnapping of a mother and two small children that were subsequently held as bargaining chips by Hamas. Western governments did not make threats against the two allied states harbouring Hamas leaders (Turkey and Qatar) while humanitarian organisations gave them little attention. Similarly, Arab governments also did not demand their immediate release.

Looking ahead: On Saturday, six more living hostages are due to be released. 

• Minister Dermer is expected to lead the negotiations in the second phase. 
• They include Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, who have been held by Hamas since entering Gaza in 2014 and 2015.
• Also due to be released are Omer Shem-Tov, Omer Wenkert and Eliya Cohen, who were kidnapped after attending the Nova festival; and Tal Shoham who was captured while visiting his wife’s family on Kibbutz Be’eri.
• Early next week, the bodies of four more deceased hostages are due to be handed over. This will likely mark the end of the first phase of hostage releases under the ceasefire agreement.
• Negotiations have not yet formally begun for the implementation of the second phase, which should see the release of the remaining 59 hostages, of whom 24 are believed to be alive. The positions the two sides have set out for themselves publicly are far different from each other. The US has firmly indicated that it wishes to see the second stage implemented.
• Tensions between Prime Minister Netanyahu and Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar spilled out into the open yesterday, following leaks from the Prime Minister’s Bureau blaming the Shin Bet for shortcomings in the hostage negotiations. The leaks are widely interpreted in Israel as an attempt to lay the groundwork for replacing Bar.

What happened: The first stage of the hostage deal will most likely wrap up this weekend, after Hamas provided a list of hostages it intends to release.

• Six alive hostages remain from those covered in the first stage, all of whom are due to be released on Saturday. They include Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, who have been held by Hamas since entering Gaza in 2014 and 2015; Omer Shem-Tov, Omer Wenkert and Eliya Cohen, who were kidnapped after attending the Nova festival; and Tal Shoham who was captured while visiting his wife’s family on Kibbutz Be’eri.
• Tomorrow, Hamas is expected to release into Israeli custody the bodies of four dead hostages and will hand over four more next week. Among those dead are presumed to be the bodies of Shiri Bibas and her sons Ariel and Kfir. Ariel was four years old when he was abducted; Kfir was nine months old. Their father, Yarden Bibas, was released from captivity on February 1. The parents of Shiri, grandparents of Ariel and Kfir, were murdered in the October 7 massacre.
• No Israeli official has confirmed the deaths of the Bibas children or their mother, nor has the family. “Until we receive definitive confirmation, our journey is not over,” the family said in a statement yesterday.
• Meanwhile, the Israeli government has decided to begin negotiating the second stage of the hostage deal. This stage would see the release of the remaining 59 hostages –  24 of whom are known to be alive – and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the entirety of the Gaza Strip. The third stage would see the reconstruction of the Strip.
• Arab states, led by Egypt, have begun to put together their own plan for Gaza’s reconstruction as an alternative to President Trump’s plan to take “ownership” of the Strip.
• For the first time since the war began, heavy construction equipment has been allowed to enter the Strip from Egypt. 

Context: Images of a terrified Shiri Bibas surrounded by terrorists clutching her redheaded boys symbolised for many Israelis the barbarity of the October 7attacks. The almost total lack of condemnation for their abduction among Palestinians, Arabs, and the larger pro-Palestinian community of activists and scholars the world over encapsulated for many others the hypocrisy and cruelty of the Palestinian cause.

• The positions Israel has staked out publicly for the second stage — no Hamas role in a future Gaza administration and a complete decommissioning of arms in the Strip — are very far from anything Hamas has indicated it might accept. If no agreement is reached on implementing the second stage, the war will resume, and the possibility of freeing the remaining hostages alive becomes vanishingly small.
• The team conducting negotiations for the second stage of the hostage agreement will have some significant personnel changes. The roles for the heads of the Mossad and Shin Bet ve been scaled back, and instead Ron Dermer, Israel’s Minister of Strategic Affairs and close Netanyahu confidant, will take a front seat.
• The significance of Dermer personally lies both in his closeness with the Prime Minister as well as his very tight relationship with the Trump administration and the US Republican Party in general.
• The replacement of a Mossad figure with a cabinet minister may also indicate a possible change in venue. Mossad usually deals with Israeli diplomacy in countries has no official relations with (such as Qatar), while Ministers and diplomats normally take on tasks involving countries Israel does have relations with (such as Egypt).
• Details on the proposals from Arab states for the future of Gaza remain sketchy, but two principles have been repeatedly enunciated. First, no mass displacement of Gazans into Arab countries. Second, in line with both American and Israeli positions, no role for Hamas in the future governance of Gaza. 
• There is a fear in Israel that the Arab plan will formally push Hamas out of government in Gaza while leaving it as an armed militia with effective veto power, along the lines of Hezbollah in Lebanon. That the Arab states are suddenly pushed to formulate a serious position on Gaza’s future is welcomed in Jerusalem, but there is still concern that whatever emerges from there could satisfy Trump without really being in Israel’s interest at all.
• Ron Ben Yishai, a leading military affairs commentator writes in Yedioth Ahronoth, “Trump’s plan to clear Gaza of Gazans terrifies the Arab world and, consequently, despite the weak chances of it happening as stated or in its spirit, it has already forced the Arab countries to work on formulating an alternative to Hamas’s rule in Gaza that will allow Israel and the United States to agree to the Gaza Strip’s reconstruction with funding from Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Qatar. From what we know about this plan, it still falls short of meeting Netanyahu’s minimum demands and it certainly fails to deliver the aspirations harbored by the nationalist-right-wing side of the coalition. But it will provide Netanyahu with maneuvering room and allow him to flatter Trump until he gets what he wants.”

Looking Ahead: Israel’s National Institute of Forensic Pathology will give positive identifications of hostages whose remains are handed over this week. The process could take days. It is impossible to estimate the emotional impact on the Israeli public and on domestic Israeli politics that confirmation of the deaths of the Bibas children, and their subsequent funerals, will have.

• Secretary of State Rubio is due to meet with President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan of the UAE. It comes before Friday’s summit in Saudi Arabia of the Gulf Cooperation Council, as well as Egypt and Jordan, in which the countries are due to respond to the Trump plan for Gaza.

What happened: Hamas has indicated that it intends to release three hostages this Saturday, as called for in the ceasefire agreement. Al-Araby Al Jadeed, a Qatari-owned outlet, quoted Egyptian sources saying that “things headed toward a breakthrough.”

• According to Maariv, Israel had passed a message to mediators that if Hamas stuck to its part of the ceasefire deal this week, Israel would do the same.
• Yesterday too, the US administration seemingly doubled down on its earlier threat with Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, Witkoff, warning there would be “a big problem” if Hamas does not free hostages as scheduled by Saturday. “Hamas is a terrorist organisation. They should not be allowed to be part of the government in Gaza. This is an unhealthy situation, they need to go.”
• Defence Minister Katz reiterated his warning to Hamas against delaying the hostage release, saying, “Any ceasefire agreement with Hamas’s murderers is designed to bring about the swift release of the Israeli hostages who are being held in very bad conditions in Gaza and…If Hamas stops releasing the hostages, then there isn’t an agreement and there is war.”
• Katz added, “The new Gaza war will be different in its intensity from the one that preceded the ceasefire, and won’t end without Hamas’s defeat and the release of all the hostages.”
• Earlier this morning The IDF conducted a strike on a vehicle in Jenin, in the northern West Bank. The car was apparently loaded with explosives on its way to carry out an attack.

Lebanon: The staged withdrawal of the IDF from southern Lebanon continues, albeit with delays. According to reports, Israel is hoping to hold on to at least five points beyond the February 18 deadline, so that Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) can prepare to take them over.

• Earlier this week the Israeli Air Force attacked a tunnel in the Bekaa Valley that ran underneath the Syria-Lebanon border and had been used by Hezbollah to transport weapons.
• The tunnel had been struck earlier in the war, but Israeli intelligence discerned attempts to reactivate it.
• According to the terms of the ceasefire, Israel is entitled to act against Hezbollah efforts to rearm and renew smuggling routes.  
• Similarly the IDF have continued to strike Hezbollah weapons depots and rocket launchers.
• Israel hopes that all northern residents will be able to return to their homes by early March. Withdrawing before the LAF can take over key sites risks having them fall into Hezbollah hands.

Context: Earlier this week, Hamas had announced that it would not be releasing any more hostages. In response, both President Trump and the Israeli government demanded the release of all hostages.

• The acquiescence of Israel to a release of three hostages this weekend would indicate that the ceasefire deal is back on, and that the first phase will be carried out in its entirety over the coming weeks.
• However, substantive negotiations on the second phase have not yet begun.
• Israeli media report that the security cabinet did not discuss further steps. Prime Minister Netanyahu was quoted saying, “There is no point in discussing the second phase because it is just a hypothetical issue at the moment.” This suggests that serious negotiations are not underway and will not begin until the present crisis about this week’s hostage release is resolved.
• Newly released hostages have not spoken to the press, but their descriptions of their captivity continue to filter out, bringing both anguish and hope to families of those still held by Hamas.
• Multiple hostage families in Israel have reported that they have received “signs of life” from loved ones in Hamas captivity. This is largely interpreted as meaning that released hostages mentioned having seen them at some point in their captivity. Besides confirmation of life, some of these reports have included details about the condition of specific hostages, often dire and distressing. Many hostages have untreated wounds. They are shackled in dark tunnels, starved, beaten, and tortured. Some have lost as much as half of their body weight.
• Families of the released female spotters described relentless beatings and threats to forcibly convert the young women to Islam and marry them off to local Gazans. The parents of one released spotter related her story of being forced to appear in a video that faked her death. Her captors used makeup and effects to make it look like she had been killed by IDF fire. Another spotter’s family reported that their daughter drank contaminated water and ate donkey feed to survive.
• One of the Thai hostages who was freed last week was undergoing treatment to restore the teeth which were smashed by his Hamas captors with the butt of a rifle.

Looking ahead: US Secretary of State Rubio is expected to make his first visit to Israel and the region this weekend.

• If all sides genuinely back down on the hostage release crisis, a renewal of the war this week will have been averted. However, the first stage of the ceasefire deal is due to shortly end, and the two sides have only about two weeks left to reach an agreement on the second phase.
• Egypt is expected to present a three to five year plan to rebuild Gaza without displacing its residents. The plan will be presented at a summit meeting with leaders from Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the UAE, scheduled for February 27.

What happened: Following a lengthy security cabinet meeting, last night Prime Minister Netanyahu announced, “In light of Hamas’s announcement regarding its decision to violate the agreement and not release our hostages… I instructed the IDF to amass forces inside – and surrounding – the Gaza Strip.” 

• According to a unanimous decision, the cabinet decided, “If Hamas does not return our hostages by Saturday noon, the ceasefire will end the IDF will resume intense fighting until the final defeat of Hamas.”
• In accordance with the political echelon the IDF has now deployed additional brigades to the Gaza front and suspended leaves for all soldiers this weekend in preparation for a possible renewal of armed combat.
• In an incident earlier this morning, the IDF struck a drone that was smuggling weapons into Gaza.
• In Washington President Trump met with King Abdullah of Jordan.  Abdullah praised Trump. “With all the challenges that we have in the Middle East, I finally see somebody [who] can take us across the finish line to bring stability, peace and prosperity to all of us in the region.”
• He also offered to absorb 2,000 Gaza children with severe illness for treatment in Jordan.
• Trump once again doubled down on moving people out of Gaza. “We’re moving them to a beautiful location where they’ll have new homes, where they can live safely, where they have doctors and medical and all of those things. It’s going to be great,” he told reporters. 
• Regarding Hamas, Trump said he did not expect them to meet his deadline. “They want to play tough guy, but we’ll see how tough they are. Hamas is bullies. The weakest people are bullies.”

Context: Following the initial announcement the Israeli government has put out multiple, not entirely consistent, statements regarding its position on the terms for upcoming hostage releases. 

• In each statement, it expressed support for Trump’s demands, but ambiguously refereed to “our hostages” leaving it open whether Israel’s demand for a hostage release this Saturday referred to:
  • Three hostages due to be released on Saturday according to the terms of agreement.
  • All nine of the remaining hostages that are alive due to be released in the first phase of the agreement.
  • All of the more than thirty hostages believed to still be alive, including those due to be released in the second phase. 
  • All hostages (alive and dead) still held by Hamas.
• The ambiguity is thought to be deliberate, on one hand to support Trump’s position (which is also unclear) and remain committed to the signed agreement.    
• The next hostage release is scheduled for this coming Saturday. According the ceasefire agreement, there should be three more weeks of hostage-for-prisoner exchanges in the first phase of the agreement, which should see the release of nine more hostages and the bodies of eight more.
• The current confusion and potential collapse of the agreement is a result of two recent statements. Hamas’s announcement that it was delaying the release of hostages as a result of what it falsely claimed were Israeli violations of the ceasefire agreement; and President Trump raising the stakes by demanding an immediate release of all hostages by noon Saturday or “all hell will break out.”
• The minor gesture made by Jordan is far from satisfying Trump’s demands. For many observers, this is a confirmation that western countries made no effort to pressure even those Arab regimes that are most closely allied with and dependent on American and Western support.
• The rapidly escalating crisis over the next stage of the hostage release comes at a delicate time in the ceasefire, when the first phase has not been completed and when negotiations for the second phase are supposed to be underway. Israel’s delegation to Doha was, according to reports in the Israeli media, authorised only to discuss “technical” aspects of the deal.
• On the Israeli side, the shock of the poor condition of the hostages released last Saturday has led to calls to speed up the release of the hostages. Hostages recently released have not spoken to the press, but multiple families of other hostages report that they have received “signs of life” and updates on the dire state of their loved ones, an indication that some of the released hostages were in touch with those left behind. This too is creating pressure on the Israeli government to do what it can to get people back as quickly as possible.
• The principal motivation, however, remains the need of the Israeli government to stay in the good graces of President Trump.
• Trump’s threats have yielded a few minor gestures from regional actors, but have not yet fundamentally changed the dynamics of the conflict.
• On the Palestinian side, Hamas was stung by the negative reaction to the sight of emaciated hostages and the theatrical ceremonies of their release. It is concerned about losing its only real asset in the war, the remaining hostages. Moreover, with the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Netzarim corridor earlier this week and the return of masses of civilians to the north of the Gaza Strip for the first time in more than a year, it may believe that it has already yielded all the important gains from this phase of the agreement and that it has no real benefit from continuing with the deal.

Looking ahead: On Saturday Hamas either will or will not release hostages, and Israel will have to respond accordingly. Zero released hostages will mean the war begins again. Three will mean that the terms of the ceasefire are unchanged, and this will raise several serious dilemmas for both Netanyahu and Trump. Nine or more will introduce a whole new dynamic to the process as all parties prepare for the second and third phase of the ceasefire agreement’s implementation.

• The Egyptian President is also expected to soon meet with Trump. The Egyptian Foreign Ministry announced that they intend to present their own comprehensive plan for the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip—”that will guarantee that the Palestinian people remains on its land.

What happened: Hamas has threatened to postpone the release of three hostages scheduled for release this coming Saturday. 

• Defence Minister Katz responded angrily and accused Hamas of blatantly violating the agreement. He added, “I have instructed the IDF to maintain the highest level of readiness for any possible scenario in Gaza and to defend Israeli communities. We will not allow a return to the reality of October 7th.”
• As such, the IDF has raised its state of alert, and announced a decision to cancel all leave for combat troops and operational units in the Southern Command. The IDF has also deployed significant defensive reinforcements in the area. 
• Last night there was an alert over a possible infiltration from northern Gaza into Israel. An extensive search was carried out in the Yad Mordechai area. In the end the suspicion was ruled out.
• Following Hamas’ announcement, President Trump weighed in last night saying, all the hostages should be released in the coming days. “They ought to be returned by 12 o’clock on Saturday, and if they’re not returned, all of them, not in dribs and drabs, not two and one and three and four and two, Saturday at 12 o’clock, and after that I would say all hell is going to break out.” 
• Trump added that if this did not happen he would advise cancelling the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, although emphasised that it was ultimately Israel’s decision. He added that he might speak with Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss the issue.
• The president also repeated his assertion that if Egypt and Jordan were to refuse to take in refugees from the Gaza Strip, he would consider suspending American aid to the two countries. 
• Last night, Prime Minister Netanyahu convened a small group of senior ministers and security officials to discuss the hostage deal negotiations. 
• Thousands of people once again demonstrated in Tel Aviv to demand the government act to free all of the hostages. 

Context: Hamas’s threat to derail the talks can be understood as the latest example of the group’s psychological terror as well as an effort to exert pressure in the ensuing negotiations. 

• It is viewed as significant that the announcement came at the beginning of the week, giving negotiators five days to resolve the issues. 
• Hamas already appeared to row back its threat late last night, saying it would remain committed to the agreement as long as Israel would too. 
• Hamas claims that Israel is not honouring its commitment to allow in the agreed upon humanitarian aid. Israel vehemently denies this and says it has kept its side of the agreement in allowing 600 trucks to enter daily. An issue could be a shipment of caravans from Qatar that was apparently blocked. This could be due to the potential of ‘dual usage’ where civilian products could also have military application.
• Hamas also claims that Israel has opened fire on Gazans attempting to move from the south to northern Gaza. According to the agreement, Gazans are free to cross on foot but can only drive vehicles through approved routes that pass through Egyptian / American security checks to ensure they are not returning with weapons. The shooting incidents relate to Gazans using alternative routes that avoid inspection or trying to enter the military buffer zones around the periphery. 
• Trump’s latest pronouncement is difficult to interpret – particularly whether he is really demanding (and expects) all the hostages to be released this weekend and what leverage he has if it (as expected) does not happen.     
• Trump’s repeated threat that ‘all hell is going to break out’ remains undefined. It is highly unlikely to take the form of US military involvement. He could threaten Hamas’s financial reliance on Qatar and Turkey and their investments in those countries, but this also seems unlikely given his envoy Witkoff close personal ties with the Qatari leadership.    
• Ever since the ceasefire deal was signed, there has been concern that as the first stage draws to a close, negotiators will not be able to resolve the sides’ conflicting aims. Israel is thought to be demanding the exiling of Hamas’s leadership that remains in the Strip, and the disarming of their military wing, things that Hamas reject. In return, Israel would announce the end of the war – a statement that could carry a political price for Netanyahu’s coalition. 
• If an agreement cannot be reached about Phase 2, potential bridging proposals have been proposed, that would see an extension of Phase 1 – more Israeli hostages released in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners and a further increase in humanitarian aid. 

Pay-to-slay: In a surprising move, Chairman of the Palestinian Authority (PA) Abbas signed a decree cancelling the law that conditioned welfare payments to Palestinian security prisoners commensurate to the length of their sentence (and the severity of their crime).   

• Instead, prisoners and family members of the dead terrorists who are eligible for welfare will now receive funds based solely on their financial needs.
• The move appears to be timed to win favour with the Trump administration. 
• The move was greeted with scepticism on the Israeli side. The Foreign Ministry assesses the announcement, “as a new fraudulent exercise by the PA, which intends to continue making payments to terrorists and their families through other channels.”
• Israel has long insisted that for the PA to be considered a legitimate partner, they need to end the pay-to-slay policy, end anti-Israel and antisemitic content in their educational syllabus and media, and end their campaign of international lawfare – using international institutions to delegitimise Israel.

Looking ahead: The Israeli security cabinet is expected to convene today and set the parameters for the negotiations over the second phase of the hostage deal. 

• Israeli officials are hopeful that this latest crisis will be resolved before the weekend.

What’s happened: The three hostages Or Levy, Eli Sharabi and Ohad Ben Ami that were released on Saturday morning appeared emaciated, with shaved heads and sunken eyes, resembling images from the past. 

• Details of their experience in captivity are being revealed as Hamas had tortured and abused them, physically and psychologically. They said that they had been treated viciously and violently.  
• All three were held in tunnels, starved, and suffered difficulty breathing. Or Levy and Eli Sharabi were held together throughout their captivity. Ohad Ben Ami only joined them on Friday evening. 
• Speaking to Kan News the deputy director of Ichilov Hospital, Prof. Gil Fire, reported on Ohad Ben Ami’s condition, saying: “He lost a lot of his body weight. The health ramifications from prolonged captivity under horrific conditions will be studied by us in the coming days and hours. That said, it needs to be stressed that we met a man strong in spirit, a man who inspires, accompanied by a strong and supportive family.”
• In parallel, according to the terms of the agreement the IDF has now withdrawn entirely from the Netzarim Corridor that divided the Strip. 
• The withdrawal means that Palestinians can now move freely throughout the Gaza Strip.
• The IDF remains deployed in a buffer zone along the perimeter and on the Philadelphi Corridor bordering Egypt.
• Over the weekend there were several attempts to enter the buffer zone. For example a group of dozens of Hamas supporters approached are area adjacent to Kibbutz Nahal Oz, IDF forces initially fired warning shots, before reportedly hitting several suspects. In Khan Yunis a woman was reportedly killed when she ran towards IDF positions. The IDF once more issued warnings to avoid approaching the areas where troops are still deployed.  
• Having retuned yesterday from the US, Prime Minister Netanyahu related to these incidents, “My directive this evening – nobody reaches the perimeter fence or penetrates it. This is part of the agreement which we will enforce, and will enforce vigorously. We expect Hamas to meet all of its commitments and this is one of them.”
• Netanyahu relayed his achievements in Washington, “that can ensure the security of Israel for generations.” Adding, “I am not exaggerating. There are opportunities for possibilities that I think we never dreamed of, or at least a few months ago they did not seem possible – but they are possible.”
• He said, “President Trump commended all of our achievements, especially the breaking of the Iranian axis.” Netanyahu added. “We agreed that all of the objectives that we set for the war must be completed: The elimination of Hamas, the return of all of our hostages, ensuring that Gaza never again constitutes a threat to Israel, returning all of the residents in both north and south, and, of course, preventing Iran from attaining nuclear weapons.”

Context: Once again Hamas are exploiting the attention garnered around the hostages released to display a show of force, for the Palestinian audience, the Israelis and the wider region. This was evident once more at the release ‘ceremony’.   

• In an overt message to the Israeli audience that Hamas remains in control, the banners on the stage said “total victory” and “we are the day after” in Hebrew. It’s not clear if these were smuggled in or if there are still functioning printing presses inside Gaza.  
• Hamas also carefully choose the venue, this time in Deir el-Balah, one of the few areas that the IDF did not enter primarily due to the fear of hostages being kept in close proximity. 
• Israeli media reports that in Deir el-Balah life continued normally during the war. The markets, even restaurants were open, and food, goods and other items were delivered there with Israeli permission. 
• Hamas also displayed several new pickup trucks, one of the symbols of the October 7 massacre, with hundreds of armed operatives and military accessories, some of them weapons taken from Israel on October 7^th.
• According to the testimonies of the three hostages released this weekend, they were deliberately starved and received a single stale pita every few days, which they were forced to share with other hostages. Their captors denied them water for several consecutive days.
• The three hostages were taken individually for interrogation, in the course of which they were subjected to severe torture. Hamas operatives strangled them, hung them from their feet and burned their flesh. 
• The hostages were held in a small room inside a tunnel. They were unable to stand up straight and had difficulty breathing. Shortly before their release, their captors slightly increased the quantities of food they were given so that they would be strong enough to stand on their own feet on the day they were released.
• In an interview on the BBC’s Sunday Morning Newswith Laura Kuenssberg, President Herzog fiercely criticised the BBC for its continued false equivalence between the treatment of convicted Hamas terrorists and innocent Israeli hostages abducted into Gaza. Herzog said, “I think that this equality that the BBC is always trying to make is outrageous and preposterous, absolutely not true. We are a democracy. We abide by the rule of law. All prisoners in Israel get whatever is necessary as prisoners under the law, under the supervision of the court, even a Supreme Court justice recently visited the prisons. And not only that, some of the [Palestinian] prisoners didn’t want to leave. They didn’t want to go back to Gaza. They preferred staying in the Israeli prisons.” 
• Herzog also related to President Trump’s plan recognising the importance of fresh perspectives on resolving the conflict. Herzog said, “We have to look for new ideas. And I believe that after he met with Prime Minister Netanyahu, now President Trump will meet with President El-Sisi of Egypt, with King Abdullah of Jordan. I’m sure that they will have to express their views on the issue, and of course, they are our partners in peace processes, including the Abraham Accords partners, we’ll hear all of them, and we’ll have to find a right way to make sure that what happened will not recur again, meaning that Hamas cannot rule Gaza anymore.”

Looking ahead: The Israeli delegation has now arrived in Qatar to discuss remaining technical details of the first stage of the agreement. 

• Negotiations over the second stage will only begin once the security cabinet convenes (expected to be tomorrow) to agree on the bandwidth of a potential agreement. 
• King Abdullah of Jordan is meeting UK officials in London before travelling on to the US to meet President Trump.
• Seventy six hostages remain in captivity, around half are whom are thought to be alive but kept in similarly horrific condition as those recently released. Nine more hostages and the bodies of a further eight are expected to be released as part of the first stage of the deal.