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Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Key background
  • Hamas is an Islamist Palestinian nationalist movement which currently governs the Gaza Strip. It is proscribed by the UK and in the majority of western countries.
  • Its primary state backers are Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. It is also active in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon.
  • Since seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has continuously launched attacks against Israel and weaponised civilian infrastructure by embedding itself into schools, mosques, and hospitals.
  • Hamas’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel killed 1200, and over 250 hostages were subsequently taken to the Gaza Strip.
Israeli security cabinet meeting
Israeli security cabinet meeting, 30th March 2025, Photo credit: Israel Prime Minister’s Office

Updated March 31, 2025

Israel to increase military pressure on Hamas to induce negotiations

What’s happened: Israel’s security cabinet convened on Saturday night to discuss the military campaign and efforts to negotiate the release of the remaining hostages.

  • Speaking to the wider cabinet last night, Prime Minister Netanyahu argued that, “the military pressure (on Hamas) is working. It is working because it is simultaneous: On the one hand, it is pounding Hamas’s military and governing capabilities, and on the other it is creating the conditions for releasing our hostages. This is exactly what we are doing.”
  • He confirmed the decision from Saturday night, “to increase the pressure, which was already increased, in order to further pound Hamas and create the optimal conditions for releasing our hostages.”
  • Netanyahu also confirmed that in parallel to military operations, Israel is also conducting negotiations, “under fire” which is why they are proving to “effective”. “Suddenly we see that there are cracks” within Hamas.  
  • Military action continued in the Gaza Strip over the weekend, with ground operations focusing on the southern town of Rafah.
  • Air strikes were carried out at Hamas targets across the Strip, including a cell attempting to launch mortars at Israel.
  • The US has continued to launch air strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen following further missile attacks on Israel over the weekend. The Houthis have attempted to attack Israel at least eight times since 18th March, after the IDF resumed significant military operations in the Gaza Strip. All missiles have been intercepted outside of Israel’s borders without causing significant damage or injuries.
  • The former hostage Yarden Bibas, whose wife and two sons were murdered while in captivity, was interviewed by CBS’s “60 Minutes.” Bibas said, “I’m here because of Trump. I’m here only because of him. I think he’s the only one who can stop this war again. He has to convince Netanyahu, convince Hamas. I think he can do it.”

Context: The current posture of the Israeli government appears to support increasing the military pressure on Hamas to induce them to return to the hostage negotiations.

  • It seems there is a consensus among the political and military leadership that military pressure is the correct approach.        
  • However, the opposition has continued to attack the government. In the latest example, Yesh Atid MK Merav Ben-Ari spoke to Kan Radio this morning questioning the military pressure approach. “You’ll increase the military pressure, and then what? That will kill the hostages. You tried that for a year and a half already. We need to stop the war and to get the hostages back…we’re talking about a jihadist organisation. It’s clear to me that another day will come when it will attack the State of Israel, and we’ll be able to attack them, and we’ll be able to destroy that organisation – and that organisation needs to be destroyed. But first get the hostages back.”        
  • Israel is insisting on the ‘Witkoff proposal,’ whereby all of the hostages, the living and the dead, are to be released in two installments – the first group at the beginning of the process, and the remainder at the end.
  • Moreover, according to reports, Israel is seemingly willing to begin to discuss ending the war during the 50 day interval between the first and second releases
  • However, substantial gaps remain between the sides. These include:
    • The conditions under which to begin talks about the second stage and ending the war.
    • The new ratio of the number of terrorists, (and whom) that are to be released in exchange for hostages. So far Hamas’s excessive demands are a non-starter.  
    • The extent of the IDF withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.
    • What international mechanisms can be created to guarantee the end the war.
  • Israel is also thought to be considering a renewal of the delivery of aid into Gaza, which Hamas has demanded. However, Israel is looking to take over the delivery process to ensure supplies reach the civilians of Gaza, and not Hamas.
  • Israel’s position of discussing an end to the war following a hostage release is a counter-proposal to Hamas reportedly being open to releasing five hostages in exchange for a 50-day pause in fighting (although it is unclear if their offer implies all five are alive).
  • Fifty nine hostages have been held captive in Gaza for 542 days, of whom 24 are thought to be alive.  
  • There is hope that concerted US diplomatic pressure on Hamas, coupled with the free hand they are giving Israel militarily (unlike the Biden administration), could induce Hamas to accept Witkoff’s parameters.    
  • The security cabinet also discussed the authenticity of the anti-Hamas protests inside Gaza, amid suggestions they could be staged by Hamas to deliberately present a false picture. However, according to Hamas sources, six Palestinians were executed this past weekend. There have been no demonstrations since Friday.  
  • The government has also announced a new head of the Shin Bet security service: Vice Admiral (retd) Eli Sharvit.  He served in the IDF for 36 years, five of which as the commander of the Israel Navy, retiring in 2021.
  • Last week, the High Court of Justice allowed Netanyahu to interview candidates to succeed Ronen Bar, despite the opposition from the attorney general.


Looking ahead: Hamas is under pressure to secure a ceasefire and resumption of aid in the context of the Eid al-Fitr holiday and the end of Ramadan.

  • Israel is keen to see a new deal ahead of Passover that begins in just under 2 weeks.
  • Despite the announcement of Sharvit’s appointment, the High Court is scheduled to hear petitions against Bar’s removal on April 8th.
  • If Sharvit is confirmed as the next head of Shin Bet, he will be the second director to appointed from outside the organisation.  Ami Ayalon, was also a former commander of the Navy. He was appointed director following the assassination of Prime Minister Rabin in 1995.  

March 27, 2025

Second day of anti-Hamas protests

Palestinians take part in an anti-Hamas protest, calling to end the war with Israel
Palestinians take part in an anti-Hamas protest, calling to end the war with Israel, in Beit Lahia, in the northern Gaza Strip, March 26, 2025. Photo by Flash90 *** Local Caption *** בניין חרבות ברזל עזה פלסטינאים הפגנה הפגנות נגד חמאס סיום לחימה צעדה אזרחים

What’s happened: For a second consecutive day, thousands of Palestinians across different parts of Gaza protested against Hamas. 

  • In Beit Lahiya in the northern Gaza Strip there were demonstrations for the second consecutive day. The protesters chanted: “Hamas out. Hamas is terrorist.”   
  • In the Sajaiya neighbourhood of Gaza City, (considered a Hamas stronghold) area, hundreds of people, filled the streets and chanted: “For the sake of God—Hamas out,” 
  • Elsewhere, placards that were held up by the demonstrators read: “Hamas doesn’t represent us,” and “Stop the war.”
  • The Israel Hayom newspaper quoted one Gazan saying, “The fear of Hamas has been broken. The residents of Gaza understand that Hamas’s ongoing rule means ongoing suffering in the Strip.”
  • Yesterday, Defence Minister Katz posted a video with Arabic subtitles in which he addressed the residents of Gaza saying, “Learn from the residents of Beit Lahiya, demand Hamas’s removal from Gaza and the immediate release of all the Israeli hostages, that is the only way to stop the war.”
  • Katz added, “Residents of Gaza, soon the IDF will operate powerfully in additional areas in Gaza and you will be required to evacuate the combat zones for the sake of your own protection. The plans are ready and have been approved. Hamas is endangering your lives and will make you lose your homes and increasingly more territory, which will be added to the Israeli defensive array.”
  • Also yesterday rockets were fired out of Gaza in two separate incidents. In the first, a rocket landed in an orchard, just 100m away from a kindergarten full of children. Later in the day another rocket was intercepted in the Beersheva area. 
  • Meanwhile, the IDF have continued their air campaign, which saw Hamas spokesperson Abdel-Latif Al-Qanoua eliminated, according to the IDF.  
  • Speaking in the Knesset plenum yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu related to the breakdown of hostage deal negotiations and about the next stages of the war. Netanyahu said, “The longer Hamas persists with its refusal to release our hostages, the more powerful the steamroller we use will be. That includes seizing territory and other things that I won’t go into detail about here.” 
  • He added, “More and more Gazans understand that Hamas is visiting disaster upon them. That shows that our policy is working. We are determined to achieve all of the war’s objectives: to destroy Hamas’s military and political capabilities, to get back our hostages, to guarantee that Gaza won’t pose a threat to the State of Israel—and to get our residents back to their homes safely.”

Context: Israel resumed the fighting in Gaza last week after Hamas rejected US efforts to extend the ceasefire, and further exchanges aimed at releasing more of the hostages.

  • The IDF surprised Hamas by launching air strikes that targeted both military commanders and civil / political leaders. 
  • The IDF campaign has so far included air strikes and limited ground incursions. On the ground, the IDF have retaken control of part of the Netzarim Corridor that bisects the Strip.
  • The reunification of the Strip along the north-south axis was considered to have been a key achievement by Hamas during the recent ceasefire. Its recapture by the IDF is thus a significant blow. 
  • The IDF have also expanded their footprint in the south around Rafah (throughout the recent ceasefire the IDF remained on the Philadelphi Corridor along the Egyptian border), and in northern Gaza in areas adjacent to the Israeli border.       
  • This is the context of Netanyahu’s threats from the Knesset yesterday regarding taking control of more territory in Gaza. This could be used as a bargaining chip in future negotiations to secure the release of the remaining 59 hostages.      
  • The first anti- Hamas demonstration broke out on Tuesday following renewed Israeli calls on civilians to leave neighbourhoods from which rockets had been fired into Israel. 
  • The protests have been led by people affiliated with the Bidna Naish (“we want to live”) Movement, inspired by Arab Spring protestors elsewhere in the region from over a decade ago. This group has organised anti-Hamas demonstrations in the past, primarily focused on the economic situation in the Gaza Strip. 
  • The chants of “Hamas out. Hamas is terrorist,” are reminiscent of protesters in Cairo who chanted, “Muslim Brotherhood out. Muslim Brotherhood are terrorists.”
  • Fatah and Palestinian Authority officials have also expressed support of the wave of protests. 
  • The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry released what it claims to be a comprehensive list – numbering 50,021 individuals – of the Palestinians who were killed or died since October 7th 2023. According to that data, combat-age males are vastly overrepresented among the casualties.
  • According to the IDF, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) has struck over 430 targets in Gaza over the last week.
  • Israel is also simultaneously engaged militarily on other fronts:
    • The IDF confirmed they carried out further air strikes in Syria, against the “remaining strategic military capabilities” at the Tadmur and T-4 bases. 
    • Over the past week, 18 targets in Syria have been struck.
    • In addition, in response to six rockets fire from Lebanon toward the Galilee earlier this week, the IAF struck more than 40 Hezbollah terrorist targets across Lebanon.
    • There have also been six interceptions of surface-to-surface missiles launched by the Houthis from Yemen. Israel has not responded, as the US are engaged in that arena.   

Looking ahead: The anti-Hamas protests are expected to continue. In southern Gaza a group representing several large families has called for a “day of rage” tomorrow. 

  • In parallel, Israel is expected to increase the intensity of its operations in Gaza, adding more pressure on Hamas, but without expanding the IDF’s ground campaign at this point.

March 20, 2025

IDF advances in Gaza amid political turmoil

IDF forces have begun focused ground operations in the center of the Gaza Strip
IDF forces have begun focused ground operations in the center of the Gaza Strip, 19th March, 2025, photo credit: IDF

What’s happened: Operation Strength and Sword entered its third day, with Israeli jets and IDF vessels engaging dozens of terrorists as well as infrastructure and rocket launching sites in Gaza.

  • Among others, the headquarters of a Hamas battalion in the Darraj Tuffah neighbourhood was struck. This site had been used to plan numerous terror attacks against Israel’s home front and IDF troops.
  • Significantly, yesterday Israeli ground forces also moved back into the Netzarim Corridor.
  • Israeli Defence Minister Katz issued a stark warning to Gazans: “What comes next will be much worse, and you will pay the full price. The re-evacuation of the population from the battle zones will commence soon. If all the Israeli hostages are not released and Hamas is not ejected from Gaza, Israel will operate with an intensity that you have yet to see.”
  • Early Wednesday morning, the Houthis fired another missile at Israel, which was intercepted before entering Israeli territory. Sirens sounded throughout the Tel Aviv and Jerusalem areas, sending hundreds of thousands of Israelis from their beds to shelters.
  • Jewish Power party leader Itamar Ben-Gvir returned to the cabinet yesterday. The cabinet is due to convene this evening to vote on dismissing the director of the Shin Bet, Ronen Bar.
  • Israel’s Attorney General, herself the target of attempted dismissal by the Government, has determined that the Government cannot dismiss Bar without convening the Advisory Committee on Senior Appointments, as stipulated by the Government’s own decisions on appointments. The cabinet is due to vote on a resolution that would supersede this and cancel the need to convene the Appointments Committee. 

Context: The Netzarim Corridor is a column of territory from the Israeli-Gaza border to the sea which bisects the Strip and effectively prevents movement from one half to the other. From late October 2023 until the ceasefire went into effect in January 2025, Israel maintained a large military presence on the corridor, but it withdrew all its forces two months ago when the ceasefire deal went into effect.

  • Several top members of Hamas’s “civilian” wings have been eliminated, including prominent members of its domestic security forces. The most senior was the “shadow prime minister” of Hamas in Gaza, Issam al-Da’alis. Almost none of Hamas’s 18 member political bureau in Gaza, which served as the chief decision-making forum, remains. Eight have been eliminated, including Yahya Sinwar and Rawhi Mushtaha while seven other members left Gaza before the war broke out in October 2023 and were spotted in Qatar, Turkey and other countries. Among those left in Gaza is the 79-year-old Mahmoud al-Zahar, one of Hamas’s founders, and Ismail Barhoum, who is in charge of finances.
  • Three days into the Israeli offensive, Hamas has been so far unable to respond militarily in any way, an indication of its much depleted strength after nearly eighteen months of combat in a war it initiated. No rockets have been fired at Israeli cities, nor any terrorist attacks carried out from a West Bank cell. Moreover, no Israeli soldiers have been killed or captured in or around Gaza since fighting renewed early Tuesday morning. All this can, of course, change very rapidly. But it is a far cry from the kind of response Hamas would have been able to quickly mount as recently as one year ago.
  • Both the renewal of combat and the push to dismiss both the Attorney General and the Director of the Shin Bet continue to rile domestic Israeli politics. Tens of thousands of protestors against the decision to fire Bar – as well as to end the ceasefire – led mainly by activists who have campaigned on behalf of the Israeli hostages in Gaza, broke out in both Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.
  • It is expected that a decision to fire Bar would be challenged in the Supreme Court.
  • An additional factor complicating the attempt to dismiss Bar is the possible conflict of interest emerging from the Shin Bet’s investigation of the affair the Israeli media have taken to calling “Qatargate.” Last night, police detained two suspects in connection with the ongoing investigation of ties between figures in the Prime Minister’s Bureau and Qatar, though a court injunction blocked the naming of the two suspects.
  • Ben-Gvir’s return to the cabinet ensures the Government will have a majority to pass the budget by the March 31 deadline. A failure to pass a budget would lead to automatic elections. Ben-Gvir left the Government in January because of his opposition to the ceasefire.

Looking ahead: A delegation of Hamas officials is due to arrive in Cairo today to discuss the terms of renewing a ceasefire. This follows yesterday’s meeting in Cairo between Egyptian mediators and an Israeli military delegation.

  • There has not yet been a major call-up of reserves like those that preceded previous land operations in Gaza and southern Lebanon.
  • A letter from President Trump to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei calls for rapid negotiation of a new nuclear deal and, notably, contains a two-month deadline for reaching an agreement. The letter was delivered to the Iranians via intermediaries in the UAE. The two-month deadline would seem to imply a threat of possible military action in early summer. The US and UK are already engaged in operations against the Houthis, an Iranian proxy force in Yemen.

March 19, 2025

Operation Strength and Sword enters its second day

Chief of Staff, Lt. Col. Eyal Zamir conducted afield tour of the Rafah area in the Gaza Strip
Chief of Staff, Lt. Col. Eyal Zamir conducted afield tour of the Rafah area in the Gaza Strip, 18th March 2025. Photo credit: IDF

What’s happened: Operation Strength and Sword entered its second day, with Israeli attacks on targets in the Gaza Strip continuing albeit at a much lower level of intensity than on Tuesday.

  • The Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry reported 14 fatalities overnight from the IDF’s operation.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu released a pre-recorded statement last night, referencing the two weeks during which the ceasefire was maintained despite Hamas releasing no hostages. “In the past two weeks, Israel did not initiate any military action in the hope that Hamas would change course. Well, that didn’t happen. While Israel accepted the offer of President Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, Hamas flatly refused to do so. This is why I authorised yesterday the renewal of military action against Hamas.”
  • Netanyahu added that “From now on, negotiations will be conducted only under fire.”
  • The operation has so far successfully targeted the political leadership of Hamas and other terrorist organisations. Following IDF’s claim that it eliminated at least five senior Hamas political leaders – including Issam al-Da’alis who effectively functioned as Hamas’ prime minister in the Strip – today the IDF added several more to the list:
    • Mahmoud Marzouk Ahmed Abu-Watfa, who served as Minister of Internal Affairs and was in charge of Hamas’ Internal Security Forces.
    • Bahajat Hassan Mohammed Abu-Sultan, who served as Head of Hamas’ Internal Security Forces.
    • Ahmed Amar Abdullah Alhat, who served as Hamas’ Minister of Justice.
  • The American Interim Ambassador to the UN, Dorothy Shea, said that blame for the resumption of combat “lies solely with Hamas.” She said that the terrorist group had “steadfastly refused every proposal and deadline they’ve been presented over the past few weeks, including a bridge proposal to extend the ceasefire beyond the holidays of Ramadan and Passover to allow time to negotiate a framework for a permanent ceasefire.” 
  • A cruise missile launched from Yemen by Houthi jihadists was intercepted before it entered Israeli airspace. 

Context: Israel’s focus on Hamas’ political leadership is an indication of its concern during the course of the two-month ceasefire about Hamas’ ability to reconstitute its governing capacity in the Strip.

  • The renewal of fighting finds Israel in a more difficult domestic situation than before. The announcement of the government’s intention to fire Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar, coupled with the intention to dismiss the Attorney General, have provoked intense opposition from the Government’s opponents and critics.
  • Writing in Israel Hayom, Yoav Limor contrasts the current domestic divisions to the unity that prevailed in the immediate aftermath of October 7. Then “an absolute majority of the public supported the immediate launching of war, now, the majority of the public supports a solution to the hostage issue before continuing the fighting.” 
  • There are 59 hostages, of whom 24 are assumed to be alive, still in Hamas captivity. Families of the hostages as well as survivors of Hamas captivity expressed anguish at the collapse of the ceasefire, with many coming to protest at Hostages Square in Tel Aviv. Einav Zangauker, mother of hostage Matan and one of the most vocal activists on behalf of the hostages, marched to the Gaza border with her daughter Natalie and other protesters, and denounced the decision to end the ceasefire.
  • Multiple reports yesterday indicated that the US administration had been briefed on Israel’s plan to renew fighting in Gaza.

Looking Ahead: It is unclear if Israel is planning another land operation in Gaza.

  • Yesterday the IDF ordered evacuations in several areas near the border with Israel, but it has said nothing regarding the Netzarim corridor, an area that bisects the strip from the border to the sea which the IDF controlled from the end of October 2023 until the beginning of the ceasefire in January.
  • Efforts by the US and Egypt, among others, to reinstate the ceasefire by means of a Hamas agreement to free some hostages continue. “Egypt and Qatar are planning to have quick connection with Israel side for urgent ceasefire and to start arranging quick meetings in Cairo for entering the next phase and exchange hostages and prisoners in order to achieve peace,” an unnamed Egyptian official told the Washington Post.

March 18, 2025

Operation Strength and Sword begins as Israel attacks dozens of Hamas targets

IDF leadership
IDF leadership, photo credit: IDF

What’s happened: The IDF has launched a series of what it termed preemptive strikes in Gaza, targeting leadership officials, mid-ranking military Hamas commanders, and terrorist infrastructure.

  • An Israeli official said that the strikes were based on Hamas’s readiness to execute terror attacks, build up force, and re-arm.
  • The Prime Minister’s Office announced that Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Katz instructed the IDF “to act with strength against the Hamas terrorist organisation in the Gaza Strip.” This follows Hamas’s repeated refusal to release our hostages and its rejection of all the proposals it received from US President’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, and from the mediators.
  • The statement added that: “The IDF is currently targeting Hamas terrorist organisation objectives across the Gaza Strip, with the goal of achieving the war objectives as determined by the political leadership, including the release of all our hostages – both the living and the fallen.” 
  • Defence Minister Katz said “If Hamas does not release all the hostages, the gates of hell will be opened on Gaza and Hamas’s murderers and rapists will encounter the IDF at an intensity they haven’t known until today.”
  • Israel has stated that at least five prominent Hamas officials were eliminated in last night’s air strikes. These include:
    • Issam al-Da’alis, considered to be one of Hamas’s chief administrators who effectively served as Hamas’s prime minister in Gaza. 
    • Bahjat Abu Sultan, who held a rank equivalent to brigadier-general, was responsible for domestic operations in Gaza and was considered to be a prominent Hamas leader. 
    • Ahmad Omar Al-Taha, who served as the director general of Hamas’s Justice Ministry in the Gaza Strip.
    • Mahmoud Abu Watfeh, who held the rank of major-general and served as the director general of Hamas’s Interior Ministry in Gaza (the commander of Hamas’s security services).
    • Hamas politburo member Abu Obaida Al Jimasi, was a Hamas leader who oversaw the administration of the southern Gaza Strip. He had not been seen in public since July 2023.
  • The Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry has that said that 326 Palestinians have been killed in the strikes.
  • Hamas said that Israel would bear “full responsibility for the repercussions of its treacherous aggression in Gaza,” which it said has “exposed the hostages in Gaza to an unknown fate. We hold the criminal Netanyahu and the Nazi Zionist occupation fully responsible for the consequences of the treacherous aggression against Gaza and the defenceless civilians.” 
  • The attack was approved yesterday at a security consultation attended by Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defence Minister Katz, Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer, Chief of Staff Zamir, GSS Director Bar, the director of the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate, and other high-ranking officials. 
  • According to reports, all of them unanimously supported the attack after the hostage release negotiations reached an impasse. 
  • The preemptive offensive plan was kept in closed circles in the IDF to create an element of surprise and deception.
  • White House Press Secretary Leavitt said that the Trump administration was consulted by the Israelis prior to the strikes. “As President Trump has made clear, Hamas, the Houthis, Iran – all those who seek to terrorise not just Israel but the US – will see a price to pay, and all hell will break loose.”
  • Leavitt added: “The Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran and Iranian backed terror proxies should take President Trump very seriously when he says he’s not afraid to stand for law-abiding people and stand up for the US and our friend and ally Israel.”
  • The hostage family forum has expressed its concern that the offensive could endanger the lives of the remaining hostages in Gaza and have demanded a meeting with the prime minister, the defence minister and the head of the negotiating team “in which [the officials] will clarify how they can guarantee that hostages won’t be affected by the military pressure and how they are planning to get them home.” 
  • This morning, the head of the Arabic-language IDF Spokesperson Unit issued a statement calling on residents of the eastern Gaza Strip in areas adjacent to the Israeli border to leave their homes and head westward.

Context: The offensive comes against the background of negotiations that took place in Qatar last week between a delegation from Israel and the Egyptian, Jordanian, Qatari, and UAE foreign ministers, in which the parties reportedly discussed a version of the ‘Witkoff Plan’.

  • This plan included:
    • Hamas releasing ten hostages (presumably all will be alive). 
    • In exchange, Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners (at a higher ratio than earlier deals) including convicted terrorists serving long sentences. 
    • Israel will resume the entrance of humanitarian aid and amenities, potentially at a greater volume than before.
    • The ceasefire will be extended for a couple of months that will include Passover and Israel’s Independence Day (1st May). 
  • However, little to no progress has been made on this proposal.
  • It also comes against the background of the IDF detecting an irregular development in the Gaza Strip in recent days, which might point to Hamas preparations either to launch an attack or to raid Israeli territory. Over the last few weeks, the IDF has tracked preparations being made by Hamas and others for a resumption of hostilities in Gaza Strip. This included the recruitment of hundreds of new terrorists, the distribution of arms and repairs that were made to the command-and-control mechanisms in Hamas’s various battalions. 
  • Despite the tension between the prime minister and Shin Bet Director Bar (Netanyahu has announced his intention to fire Bar) the latter was present alongside the Chief of Staff during the operation.
  • The renewed strikes take place in a different context to the past war against Hamas: Hezbollah has been decimated in the north, which allows the IDF greater capacity to focus its forces on Gaza; and the Trump administration will likely give the IDF more leeway than did the Biden administration.

Looking ahead: It remains to be seen whether the operation will expand to ground troops reentering Gaza. 

  • If Israel were to re-take Gaza, it may adopt a different approach to the delivery of humanitarian aid. The new IDF Chief of Staff, Zamir, has proposed that the IDF will take over the delivery of aid to Gazans as the only way to ensure Hamas does not profit from the aid. The previous chief of staff was reluctant to take this on, out of concern that it be perceived as military responsibility for the civilian population.  

March 13, 2025

Efforts continue in Doha to reach hostage deal extension

Demonstrators protest for the release of Israelis held hostage in the Gaza Strip, outside Hakirya Base in Tel Aviv, March 10, 2025.
Demonstrators protest for the release of Israelis held hostage in the Gaza Strip, outside Hakirya Base in Tel Aviv, March 10, 2025. Photo by Erik Marmor/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** מלחמה תל אביב חרבות ברזל קריה הקריה הפגנה

What’s happening: White House envoy to the Middle East Witkoff has joined the talks in Qatar to try and secure a deal to release more hostages.   

  • The talks are being held with the Israeli delegation alongside the Egyptian, Jordanian, Qatari and UAE foreign ministers. 
  • According to reports, the focus of the negotiations is a version of the ‘Witkoff Plan’ that includes:
    • Hamas releasing ten hostages (presumably all will be alive). 
    • In exchange Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners (at a higher ratio than earlier deals) including convicted terrorists serving long sentences. 
    • Israel will resume the entrance of humanitarian aid and amenities, potentially at a greater volume than before.
    • The ceasefire will be extended for a couple of months that will include Passover and Israel’s Independence Day (1st May). 
  • On Wednesday, Prime Minister Netanyahu held consultations with the Israeli negotiators to coordinate their stance ahead of the Doha talks.
  • He also held a meeting with senior security officials to approve military plans for the Gaza Strip if the negotiations fail. 
  • Israel media reported that despite the publicised tension with the prime minister, head of the Shin Bet, Ronen Bar attended both meetings.
  • In Washington President Trump appeared to backtrack on his plan to resettle Gazans outside of the Strip, saying, “nobody’s expelling any Palestinians.”   

Context: There remains a high level of anguish in Israeli society to secure the release of all the remaining  hostages.

  • This has been compounded by the accounts of recently released hostages that describe horrific conditions of their captivity, including being kept underground, beaten and tortured, and fed morsels of sometimes rotten food.       
  • 59 hostages remain in captivity now for 524 days. Of them only 24 are alive, with 35 thought to have been killed.     
  • As a result of information garnered from released hostages, the family of Avinatan Or received their first indication that he is still alive, but being held in horrific conditions. 
  • In the absence of the agreement, there has not yet been a return to fighting, but the IDF has presented a plan to the government as a contingency. The credibility of the military threat, which may be more intense that previous fighting, is intended to pressure Hamas into a deal.
  • Alongside military action, the new IDF Chief of Staff, Lt Gen Zamir is proposing that the IDF will take over the delivery of aid to Gazans as the only way to ensure Hamas does not profit from the aid. The previous chief of staff was reluctant to take this on, out of concern that it be perceived as military responsibility for the civilian population.  
  • Hamas appear to be particularly satisfied with the revelation that they held direct talks with a US officials, as this broke the long held diplomatic veto by western liberal members of the international community. However US officials played down its significance with Secretary of State Rubio referring to it as a “one-off” that “hasn’t borne fruit.”
  • There remains residual concerns that if no agreement is reached the US will do a side deal to secure the remaining hostages with US citizenship (Edan Alexander and the bodies of four murdered hostages). It is also possible that they could be released by Hamas as a goodwill gesture, that could further appeal to President Trump.
  • Overall, it appears US and Israel remain well coordinated. During a meeting in Jeddah earlier this week, Secretary Rubio told Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman, that the US insists that Hamas have no role in any solution for postwar Gaza. Similarly Israeli Foreign Minister Saar has again emphasised that “the war in Gaza will not end without the demilitarisation of Gaza Strip.”
  • Israel is caught in a bind regarding the Witkoff framework. On one hand, the release of ten more living hostages is highly sought. On the other, it calls into question the fate of those who remain. From Hamas’s perspective, they could agree to this deal, as long as they retain some of the captives as an insurance policy to ensure their survival.                        

Looking ahead: Despite no breakthrough yet, the fact that the Israeli delegation has not been recalled gives hope that there is still hope a deal can be reached. The next few days are once more seen as critical.    

  • Later today the IDF will present their latest internal investigation, this time focusing on kibbutz Nir Oz.    
  • According to consistent polling, there remains a large majority of the Israeli public in favour of forming an independent state commission of inquiry into October 7th. Last night President Herzog once more endorsed his support for such a commission. So far the government has been unwilling to sanction it. 

March 10, 2025

US confirm direct talks with Hamas as Israeli negotiators return to Qatar

Former hostage Karina Ariev rally calling for the release of Israelis held hostage by Hamas terrorists in Gaza, at "Hostage Square" in Tel Aviv, March 8, 2025.
Former hostage Karina Ariev rally calling for the release of Israelis held hostage by Hamas terrorists in Gaza, at "Hostage Square" in Tel Aviv, March 8, 2025. Photo by Avshalom Sassoni/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** קרינה ארייב מלחמה חטופים משפחות תל אביב חרבות עצרת ברזל מלחמה

What’s happening: Following a Security Cabinet meeting last night, Israel has sent a negotiating team to Doha. 

  • The delegation is being led by ‘M’ from the Shin Bet, along with Coordinator for the Captives and Missing Brig. Gen. (ret) Gal Hirsch, Dr. Ophir Falk, the prime minister’s diplomatic adviser, and other security officials.   
  • Amid the current deadlock in talks, Israel’s Energy Minister Eli Cohen announced that Israel was cutting off the electricity supply in a bid to force Hamas to release hostages. Cohen said, “We will use all the tools at our disposal to bring back the hostages and ensure that Hamas is no longer in Gaza the day after.” 
  • Over the weekend Trump’s envoy for hostage affairs, Adam Boehler, gave a series of interviews to both Israel and US media, where he confirmed he had been in direct talks with Hamas, in parallel to the indirect negotiations mediated by Qatar and Egypt. 
  • It is thought Boehler had initially focused on releasing the remaining hostages with dual US citizenship (Edan Alexander, along with the bodies of four US hostages). However, Boehler stressed that the talks were meant to lead to a wider deal for all the hostages.
  • Aware of Israeli concerns, Boehler confirmed he discussed it with Minister Dermer. He told CNN, “I understand the consternation and the concern. I wasn’t upset. At the same time, we’re the United States. We’re not an agent of Israel. We have specific interests at play. We did communicate back and forth. We had very specific parameters.”
  • Later, Boehler told Kan News, “My actions were coordinated with Israel, even though maybe there were some that said they weren’t. My job isn’t to move Israel aside, Israel is a major ally.” 
  • Boehler also said that “some progress” had been made in the talks. He said that Hamas had proposed “a ceasefire that would last between five and ten years in which Hamas would lay down its arms and would not initiate any military action and would not take part in any political activity. I thought that this was an opening proposal that was not at all bad.” 
  • Boehler later commented on X: “Hamas is a terrorist organization that has murdered thousands of innocent people. They are BY DEFINITION BAD people.”

Context: The revelation that the US has been in direct talks with Hamas is unprecedented and has shocked as Israeli officials, with its main interlocutor, Minister Dermer, incredulous.  

  • Hamas was designated a terrorist organisation by the US in 1997, following its campaign of suicide bus bombings in the mid-90s aimed at disrupting the peace process. 
  • Since 2005 the consensus approach of the international community has been to have no direct contact with Hamas until it abides by the three criteria laid out by the Tony Blair‘s led Quartet:
    • Disavow violence. 
    • Recognise Israel’s right to exist.
    • Respect previously signed agreements between Israel and the Palestinians. 
  • Boehler’s latest interviews confirm that he was not acting along, but in full coordination with Witkoff and the White House. 
  • Writing in Yediot Ahronot, Itamar Eichner suggests, “It seems that neither Dermer nor Netanyahu understood whom they are dealing with. Trump has a plan, and that is to win a Nobel Prize. In another month and a half, he plans to visit Saudi Arabia, and he needs to resolve the hostage issue by that point. The Nobel Prize is so important to the American president that if he reaches the conclusion that Netanyahu is an obstacle, he will do a Zelensky on him. Trump isn’t there yet, for now.”
  • With the Israeli delegation returning to Doha, it is not clear which deal they are negotiating.
    • The Boehler plan is focused on the release of ten living hostages, (almost half of all the living hostages) in exchange for a 60-day ceasefire and the renewed flow of humanitarian aid. 
    • Similarly, the Witkoff plan calls for the ceasefire to be extended for the duration of Ramadan and Passover. Half of the hostages (living and dead) are to be released on the first day of the agreement. The other half are to be released as a single group on the last day. 
    • Israel has consented to the Witkoff plan but it also open to an extension of the first stage along similar formulation as before. 
    • Or the original plan of stage two, which would include Hamas demilitarising and leaving Gaza (an Israeli demand), a comprehensive hostage-prisoner exchange, as well as a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, the reopening of border crossings, and a permanent ceasefire (a Hamas demand). 
  • One of the ideas that came up in Boehler’s interview was the concept of a “Hudna” that would last between five and ten years in exchange for the release of all the prisoners. This sparked grave concern for Israelis that understand Hamas’s meaning of this term as a temporary refrain until they are strong enough to carry out their next attack.    
  • Even without a Hudna, the IDF has detected signs that Hamas is already preparing for a resumption of fighting, placing explosives and planning ambushes. 
  • Whilst negotiations fail to produce a breakthrough, Hamas is essentially getting a ceasefire with no cost, hence the Israeli decision to stop the aid and electricity as a means to pressure Hamas into releasing more hostages. Israeli officials are also threatening to disconnect the water pipes into Gaza. 
  • According to the latest assessment, Hamas is still holding 59 hostages, 24 of whom are believed to be alive and at least 35 of whom have been killed, for 521 days. 

Looking ahead: Witkoff, the president’s envoy, is expected to arrive in Doha tomorrow and join the negotiations.

  • If there is no progress Israel will consider placing further restrictions on Gaza in an effort to assert more pressure on Hamas. 
  • The political leadership has instructed the IDF to prepare for a resumption of fighting. However the prevailing assessment is that Israel will give the mediators more time to reach an agreement.

March 6, 2025

Trump’s warning to Hamas

Released Israeli hostages in the Oval Office.
Photo credit: White House/X

What’s happened: President Trump hosted released Israeli hostages in the Oval Office yesterday. 

  • One of the hostages at the meeting was Eli Sharabi, whose hour-long interview on Israeli TV last week shocked the Israeli public with his descriptions of Hamas brutality. Trump posed for a picture with Sharabi, still thin and emaciated more than a month after his release, while holding a cartoon explicitly comparing the released Israeli hostages to concentration camp survivors.
  • After the meeting with the released Israeli hostages, President Trump took to his social media platform to issue a stark warning to Hamas. “Release all of the Hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered, or it is OVER for you,” he wrote. “This is your last warning! For the leadership, now is the time to leave Gaza, while you still have a chance.” 
  • Secretary of State Rubio added hours later in an interview on Fox News that Trump had lost his patience with Hamas, and was particularly incensed by the hostage release “ceremonies” and the mix-up with the body of murdered hostage Shiri Bibas.
  • Israeli Foreign Minister Gidon Saar and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy spoke by telephone yesterday about the situation in Gaza. The UK objects to Israel’s suspension of aid deliveries to Gaza, and it issued a joint statement with France and Germany to that effect. 
  • Saar reiterated Israel’s acceptance of the proposal by American special envoy Steve Witkoff to extend the first phase of the ceasefire through the Ramadan and Passover holidays in exchange for more hostage releases. In a tweet after the call, Saar added that “during the 42-day phase one, 25,000 aid trucks entered Gaza – half of Hamas’ budget in Gaza comes from these trucks! Hamas is restoring its military capabilities and recruiting new, young terrorists. This cannot continue!”
  • Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office had declared that that if Hamas were to change its mind, Israel would immediately commence negotiations about all the details.

Context: The first phase of the ceasefire agreement, scheduled to last 42 days, has come to an end. The deadline for a negotiated agreement for the second phase has come and passed. The status of the ceasefire is, as of now, indeterminate.

  • Several Arab states have endorsed the Egyptian’s plan as a “counterproposal” to President Trump’s plan for Gaza. 
  • The most important part of the plan is the $53 billion Egyptian proposal to rebuild Gaza without moving its inhabitants out of the Strip. This is in contrast to Trump’s idea to resettle Gaza’s population elsewhere.
  • The Arab plan calls for Gaza to be governed temporarily by a committee of technocrats not affiliated with Hamas, and for it eventually to be merged with the Palestinian Authority. 
  • Israel primarily objects to the plans ambiguity on Hamas disarmament. The Arab plan calls for Hamas to be left out of governance, but doesn’t fully rule out that Hamas could keep its weapons and still influence Gaza politics in a manner reminiscent of Hezbollah in Lebanon in the last 25 years. Israel insists on a full decommissioning of Hamas weapons.
  • Israeli officials have cautiously supported Trump’s plan but emphasised any resettlement must be voluntary.
  • The Arab plan doesn’t demand immediate Palestinian statehood, but it does insist on some kind of long-term plan for a single Palestinian state encompassing the West Bank and Gaza. 
  • While the Trump administration has repeatedly signalled that it is open to compromises on the President’s Gaza plan, it criticised the Arab plan’s insistence on keeping all Gazans inside the Strip even during reconstruction as unrealistic, saying the Arab plan “does not address the reality that Gaza is currently uninhabitable.”
  • The Egyptian reconstruction plan would depend in funding from the wealthy Gulf monarchies, but notably only two, Bahrain and Qatar, sent heads of state to the Cairo Summit this week where the plan was unveiled. 
  • Writing about both the American and Israeli rejection of the Arab plan, Haaretz’s Amir Tibon notes that “the administration keeps saying it is committed to bringing back all of the hostages and removing Hamas from power. Renewing the war could perhaps achieve the second goal, but at the price of giving up on the first one.”
  • It has also emerged that the Trump administration has been holding direct talks with Hamas over the release of US hostages held in Gaza. Of the remaining hostages, five have US citizenship, including 21 year old Edan Alexander, who is believed to be alive.
  • There remains 59 hostages  held by Hamas for 517 days. Israel has confirmation that 35 of them are dead, with the hope that the remaining 24 are alive.   

Looking Ahead: Despite the current absence of negotiations it is thought that Israel will wait at least another week before relaunching a military assault on Hamas. 

  • All the sides are waiting for Witkoff. His visit has been delayed due to a stalemate in negotiations.
  • An Israeli official told Maariv newspaper, “Witkoff won’t be coming here as long as there isn’t any progress in the negotiations. He will only come to close a deal. For the time being, that isn’t the situation. There isn’t any progress and, for now, Hamas hasn’t budged from its position. Israel is prepared to give that effort a few days, and it has means for exerting pressure on Hamas before a resumption of war.”

March 4, 2025

IDF releases more reports into October 7ᵗʰ attacks

MK Hili Tropper speaks during a 40 signatures debate, at the plenum hall of the Knesset, the Israeli parliament in Jerusalem, on March 3, 2025.
MK Hili Tropper speaks during a 40 signatures debate, at the plenum hall of the Knesset, the Israeli parliament in Jerusalem, on March 3, 2025. Photo by Chaim Goldberg/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** 40 חתימות כנסת מליאה חילי טרופר

What’s happened: The IDF have released two more reports of their investigations into what happened in various communities. The latest reports relate to events at kibbutz Kfar Aza and the Nahal Oz military base.   
 
Kfar Aza: 64 members of the Kfar Aza community were murdered and 19 taken hostage, out of a community of around 900 people.

  • The attack began (as elsewhere) with a massive rocket attack. In total, over 750 rockets were fired at the Kfar Aza area alone.
  • With no warning having come from the army, at around 06:45 three hang gliders landed in the kibbutz.
  • Shortly afterwards, around 100 infiltrators entered the community, both Hamas terrorists and other Gazans. It was during this time that the majority of the residents were killed.  
  • An hour later, a second wave entered, leaving the 14 members of the community’s security team to fight around 150 terrorists.
  • During the second wave, the terrorists began to take hostages.
  • A small number of IDF forces arrived at this time, but without coordination and with no orderly command. An estimated 250-300 terrorists were able to murder and abduct the kibbutz residents.
  • Only after 12:00 did the army arrive in more significant numbers, with “fierce combat conducted against hundreds of terrorists entrenched in the kibbutz,” continuing until the early evening.        
  • By late afternoon, the IDF had established numerical supremacy, with around 700 soldiers fighting against 50 Hamas terrorists.
  • Fighting continued through the night, with the evacuation of the surviving residents carried out in the early hours of the morning.       
  • Throughout the next two days, fighting continued in isolated incidents until, by the afternoon of October 10th, the kibbutz was finally cleared of terrorists.       
  • In total, around 150 terrorists were killed in the Kfar Aza area.
  • Eventually, air support arrived, including dozens of drones and helicopters, plus 12 fighter jets, but too late to save most of the residents.
  • According to the IDF investigation, there were several failures within the military echelon:
    • Perhaps the most significant failure was the absence of any warning, which gave Hamas the element of surprise.
    • The lack of military coordination and support from the Gaza Division (as it was conquered at the same time).
    • The over reliance on tech and monitoring of the border fence, and the lack of forces in and around the kibbutz.
    • The lack of knowledge of conditions on the ground on the part of soldiers who did eventually arrive.
    • The accessibility of weapons kept in the storage area (the army had previously insisted on the storage to avoid the risk of weapons theft from private homes).
Focal Points in the Battle in Kibbutz Kfar Aza - 7th October 2023
Source: IDF

Nahal Oz military base: 53 soldiers and officers were killed in combat and 10 soldiers kidnapped to Gaza, including seven female spotters.

  • On the morning of the attack, there were 162 personnel stationed at the base, but only 81 trained combatants.
  • Hamas had acquired substantial intelligence pertaining to the base. Based on documents captured from terrorists, they had precise diagrams, including locations of shelters, generators, and security cameras. They knew exactly who occupied which rooms, sleeping arrangements, and command post locations.
  • Despite the base being located 850 metres from the border fence, no defence protocol to guard against a ground raid.
  • On the morning of October 7th, Nahal Oz camp maintained full routine operations without any warnings. At 05:30 the regular patrol left the base.
  • At 06:29, intense barrage fire targeted the base as female spotters reported enemy approaches to the fence. Soldiers followed their only known procedure: running to shelters, having received no other training for base attacks.
  • Female spotters followed their protocols, moving to observation positions to identify possible raids.
  • Following the massive rocket fire directed at the base, most of the soldiers retreated to the shelters. Around 65 Hamas Nukhba terrorists infiltrated the base just after 07:00.       
  • At 07:43, the first Air Force attack drone arrived, but was unable to establish contact with ground forces and therefore unable to identify targets.
  • By 07:46, terrorists overwhelmed the women’s shelter which housed 31 female soldiers –  only six were armed, with one entirely untrained. When the first terrorist entered, they managed to wound him before terrorists threw three grenades inside. Fourteen female soldiers escaped. The terrorists then bound the remaining women and searched for those who had escaped.
  • At 08:40, two airstrikes targeted areas near the female spotters’ quarters, driving terrorists away and saving eleven female soldiers’ lives.
  • Over the next four hours, IDF troops continued engaging terrorists, sustaining casualties.
  • Around 09:00, a second wave of terrorists arrived. Kidnappings from Nahal Oz began at around 10:00, with seven female spotters taken captive from their shelter at around 10:20.
  • Throughout this period, terrorists attempted to breach the command post but encountered determined resistance from two platoon commanders, including one Bedouin tracker. Six soldiers managed to escape through a bathroom window. Fifteen soldiers and commanders died in the command post.
  • Among the investigation’s main conclusions are:
    • Dealing with a surprise attack compounded the fact that the base did not function as an outpost and was not prepared for defence or combat capability
    • They had been prepared for rocket attacks, but not terrorist infiltration.
    • The investigation team noted positively the commanders’ decisions to send their forces to fight in the nearby kibbutzim and protect the residents rather than fighting in the camp.
    • Also noted positively was the performance of the female spotters and the commander who continued to provide operational reports to forces with composure, despite the many enemies in the camp. The investigation team recommended awarding citations to a number of male and female soldiers and officers.
    • The devastating battle at Nahal Oz represents a systemic failure in IDF preparedness for a wide-scale ground attack under rocket fire.
    • Retrospective analysis of Hamas’s invasion plans clearly shows they specifically targeted the Nahal Oz base as a key objective within its operational strategy.
    • For years, Hamas gathered intelligence on the base through direct observation from Sajayia (which overlooks the site) and information collection from inside the camp via soldiers social media posts.
Enemy Plan - Nahal OZ Base attack - 7th October 2023
Source: IDF

In the Knesset: The IDF reports are part of the internal military assessments over what went wrong, but many Israelis are continuing to demand a full-scale state commission of enquiry.

  • Yesterday, the opposition obtained the requisite 40 MK signatures, meaning Prime Minister Netanyahu was obliged to attend the session and to answer questions about why, after 17 months of fighting, no state commission of inquiry has been formed to look into the greatest failure in the history of the State of Israel.
  • Clashes erupted outside the chamber when the Knesset Guard forcibly blocked bereaved families from entering the observation gallery to watch the session.
  • One bereaved father, Shimon Buskila, whose son Yarden was murdered at the Nova festival, required medical attention.
  • It took nearly an hour for them to be permitted to enter the gallery under heavy security from the Knesset Guard.
  • Knesset Speaker MK Ohana (Likud) said there has been a 15-person limit to visitors observing Knesset activity from the visitors’ gallery since the start of the war because of disturbances that had broken out in the past. The families, however, said they had sent a letter to Ohana the previous day informing him that dozens of bereaved families planned to attend.
  • Inside the chamber, opposition MKs took turns reading statements given by families who suffered loss on October 7th. National Unity Party Chairman MK Benny Gantz presented Netanyahu with a file containing all the families’ statements.
  • One of the letters was written by Yarden Bibas, released from captivity in February and whose wife Shiri and sons Ariel and Kfir were murdered in captivity by Hamas. MK Chili Tropper (National Unity Party) read the letter aloud. “Announce the establishment of a state commission of inquiry that will strengthen Israel’s security,” Bibas wrote. “So very many people have begged forgiveness; so very few politicians have begged forgiveness. I’m not interested in settling scores over the past; I want all of us to act so that things will be better here. I am asking you, Mr. Prime Minister: I haven’t been to Nir Oz. I’m asking you: let’s go together. If we don’t look the truth in the eye, we will not be able to recover.”
  • In response, Netanyahu lashed out at the opposition and the “deep state,” and described the demand to form a state commission of inquiry as an act of politically-motivated selective action designed to target him unfairly.
  • Netanyahu said, “It is important and essential to investigate in depth everything that happened to us on October 7th and what preceded it. I insist on this. But this investigation needs to enjoy the public’s confidence or the confidence of a majority of the public. That is why we are demanding to form an objective, balanced commission of inquiry, and not a politically biased [commission] whose conclusions are a foregone conclusion.”

Looking ahead: Tomorrow, the IDF’s new Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir formally takes command of the army.

  • With no progress in talks to extend the ceasefire, the IDF is expected to wait another 10 days before it declares a resumption of fighting in Gaza.

March 3, 2025

Israel accepts, Hamas rejects US proposal to extend the ceasefire

Israelis attend a rally calling for the release of Israelis held hostage by Hamas terrorists in Gaza, at "Hostage Square" in Tel Aviv, March 1, 2025.
Israelis attend a rally calling for the release of Israelis held hostage by Hamas terrorists in Gaza, at "Hostage Square" in Tel Aviv, March 1, 2025. Photo by Avshalom Sassoni/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** מלחמה חטופים משפחות תל אביב חרבות עצרת ברזל מלחמה

What’s happened: Over the weekend US envoy Witkoff proposed to extend the ceasefire for the next 50 days to include Ramadan and Passover. 

  • Witkoff proposed an extension of the first stage that would see half of the living and dead hostages released on the first day, with the rest released at the end if an agreement about a permanent ceasefire were to be reached. 
  • Hamas is opposed to the proposal, whilst Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) said that if Hamas were to change its mind, Israel would immediately commence negotiations about all the details. 
  • According to the PMO, Witkoff put forward his proposal after he received the impression that it would be impossible at the current stage to bridge the gaps between the sides to end the war, and that more time would be needed to discuss a permanent ceasefire. 
  • The PMO statement added, “While Hamas has repeatedly violated the agreement, Israel has not been found in violation. According to the agreement, Israel could return to fighting after the 42nd day if it gains the impression that the negotiations have been ineffective. This article is supported in a side letter by the previous US administration and has also received the support of the Trump administration.”
  • Following Hamas’ rejection of the US offer, Israel announced that it would halt the entry of goods and supplies into Gaza. 
  • A stabbing attack took place in Haifa this morning. Initial reports that a 70 year old man was murdered and at least four others hurt, three of them in serious condition. The terrorist was shot and killed at the scene.
  • On Sunday, the funeral for Shlomo Mantzur, who was murdered and kidnapped on October 7th, was held on Kibbutz Kissufim. Speaking at the funeral, President Herzog asked for forgiveness. “Forgiveness for our failure to protect you in the very place that was meant to be your fortress. Forgiveness from you, from your family, from the members of Kissufim, and from all the residents of the western Negev—for not saving you on that bitter, terrible day.”
  • On Saturday, Hamas released their latest propaganda video documenting the moment when the brothers Iair and Eitan Horn said goodbye to one another shortly before Iair’s release from captivity.
  • Once more thousands of people attended the rally in Hostages’ Square in Tel Aviv on Saturday night. 
  • On Sunday night thousands demonstrated outside the Prime Minister Netanyahu’s private residence on Azza Street in Jerusalem, demanding that he not derail the hostage deal. 

Context: With the formal end of the first stage of the ceasefire agreement, Israel is preparing to ratchet up the pressure on Hamas to secure the release of the remaining hostages.

  • In the Israeli assessment, of the 59 remaining captives – now held for 514 days – 24 are alive, whilst 35 have been killed by Hamas. 
  • The first step of the pressure campaign was to stop the transfer of aid that had formed part of Israel’s commitment in the first stage of the deal. 
  • Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs noted, “The goods transferred to Gaza have become the number one source of income for Hamas. The goods have been exploited by Hamas for the reconstruction of its terror infrastructure, Hamas is now running a billion-dollar aid industry that is being used for terrorist purposes.”
  • During the 42 day ceasefire more than 25,200 trucks of goods entered Gaza, which is estimated to be enough to sustain the entire population for four months.
  • Israel is hoping the threat of the resumption of fighting will motivate Hamas to agree to an extension of a deal that will see more of their prisoners released in return for the remaining hostages.  As part of the threat, the military has warned that a return to fighting will be more aggressive and could include a resumption of targeting killings as well as threatening to cut off supplies of water and electricity.
  • To compound the pressure on Hamas, Israel is hoping that the US will increase the diplomatic pressure on Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt to release all of the hostages. 
  • Israel has also announced that it will not begin withdrawing troops from the Philadelphi Corridor, which as part of the first stage, it was due to begin on Day 42, and complete the process on Day 50. 
  • At this point Prime Minister Netanyahu is looking to explore all possibilities to extend the deal in order to free more hostages before returning to war, even at the heavy price of continuing to release Palestinian prisoners. However he is also facing pressure from his right wing coalition partners in the Religious Zionist party to renew the fighting.       
  • There remains some hope that the sides can reach an understanding.  Hamas spokesperson Hazem Qassem said they rejected a continuation of the first stage in the “Israeli format,” which does not lead to negotiations on the second stage of the ceasefire agreement, but it would not rule out a different proposal. 
  • Arab media has reported an Egyptian plan to extend the first stage by two weeks, during which negotiations on the second stage are to begin and Hamas will commit to releasing two groups of two living hostages and four murdered hostages each.
  • Meanwhile the US State Department announced the expedited delivery of $4 billion in military aid to Israel.
  • Ramadan began this weekend and lasts until March 29th. Passover ends on April 19th.

Looking ahead: Three of the recently freed hostages, Eli Sharabi, Omer Shem Tov, and Keith Siegel, will travel to Washington later today and meet President Trump tomorrow in order to underscore the importance of releasing all the remaining hostages.      

  • At the Arab League summit in Cairo tomorrow, Egypt is expected to present its own plan for rebuilding the Gaza Strip without displacing the residents.  
  • Witkoff is due to return to the region once more this week in an effort to reach an agreement. Israel is expected to give the diplomatic efforts one week before a decision is made to resume the fighting.

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