In the north: Across Wednesday and Thursday, northern Israel suffered the heaviest barrages of Hezbollah rocket, missile, and drone fire so far.

• On Wednesday, some 215 rockets were fired on northern Israel, while yesterday at least 100 projectiles were fired, including 40 in a two-hour barrage.
• The IDF confirmed that five Hezbollah UAVs had penetrated Israeli airspace, and that Hezbollah had at one point launched nine drones at the Gailee in a single minute.
• About 300 sirens sounded in northern communities, while four people were injured in an incident adjacent to the community of Margoliot on the northern border. The incident included anti-tank missiles that seem to have hit a vehicle.
• As a result of an anti-tank projectile attack in the area of Manara, one IDF soldier was moderately injured and an additional soldier was lightly injured.
• In response, on Wednesday IAF fighter jets struck a launcher in the area of Hanine in southern Lebanon, and four terrorist infrastructure sites in the area of Yater.
• Lebanese media also reports at least seven casualties from an Israeli airstrike in the town of Jannata in the Tyre district.
• Hezbollah attacks continued this morning, with sirens sounding in communities in the north across the length of the border.

Gaza Strip: Several projectiles were also fired on Israel from the northern Gaza Strip last night. Some were intercepted by the IDF’s Aerial Defence Array, while others fell in open areas. No injuries were reported.

• In response, says the IDF, “aircraft and artillery struck the launch sites from which the projectiles were fired, as well as a weapons storage facility in the vicinity.”
• Troops operated in the Zeitoun area and Sabra neighbourhood yesterday, in which dozens of Hamas fighters were killed and 50 terrorist infrastructures destroyed. The IDF also destroyed an 800-metre Hamas tunnel, located just a kilometre from the Israeli border.
• The IDF also continues operations in the central Gaza Strip and in Rafah. In Rafah, “troops eliminated a number of terrorists and located large quantities of weapons and underground tunnel shafts. A number of explosive devices, as well as Hamas terrorist infrastructure sites, were located and destroyed by IDF ground troops. In one incident, a terrorist that was identified approaching IDF troops was eliminated in an aerial strike.”
• Earlier in the week, “troops eliminated a number of armed terrorist cells in close-quarters encounters in the [Rafah] area. IDF troops also located and destroyed structures rigged with explosives, as well as weapons, ammunition, military vests, and additional military equipment found in the area.”
• In the central Strip, troops killed a number of Hamas fighters on Wednesday, including one who took part in October 7^th.

Context: With the northern front now the most intense focus of kinetic activity, Israel is braced for even further escalation.

• Hitherto, the assessment had been that both sides wished to avoid all-out war, and that Hezbollah was content to keep hostilities at a level which diverted resources and attention from Gaza but stopped short of a full escalation.
• The calculus of Hezbollah’s Iranian patron, too, has traditionally been that Hezbollah’s massive reserve of rockets and missiles (far more sophisticated than Hamas’s) be held in reserve to deter any attack on Iran’s nuclear programme.
• While strikes in Syria attributed to Israel have attempted to stem the flow of weapons resupply to Hezbollah, the organisation is now seemingly on a more aggressive footing.
• On Wednesday night, Israel conducted a targeted strike on senior Hezbollah commander, Taleb Sami Abdullah. The IDF called Abdullah, the commander of the Nasr Unit, “one of Hezbollah’s most senior commanders in southern Lebanon.” He is understood to be the most senior Hezbollah commander killed in the last eight months, during which time he had been responsible for many attacks on northern Israel, particularly on the city of Kiryat Shmona.
• Senior Hezbollah official Hashem Saffieddine then said during Abdullah’s funeral that “our response after the martyrdom of Abu Taleb will be to intensify our operations in severity, strength, quantity, and quality… Let the enemy wait for us on the battlefield.”
• The large amounts of rocket, missile, and drone fire in concentrated time periods is significant in that it represents Hezbollah attempting to overwhelm Israel’s aerial defensive array.
• Whilst this has been a significant escalation, it represents only a fraction of Hezbollah’s capacity. They are thought to have stockpiled 150,000 rockets, including advanced precision munitions with heavy payloads, capable of targeting strategic sites deep into Israel.
• With much of the damage from Hezbollah projectiles coming in areas of nature and wildlife, the Israeli Parks Authority has said that over 11,000 acres of land has burned over the past two weeks, and nearly 15,000 acres since the start of the year. The fires are exacerbated by the heat wave Israel is currently experiencing.
• French and American efforts to secure a diplomatic solution to the conflict on Israel’s northern border have been ongoing since Hezbollah joined Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 8^th.
• While these efforts have so far been unsuccessful, French President Macron, speaking yesterday at the G7 summit in Italy, said that “With the United States we agreed on the principle of a trilateral [contact group], Israel, the United States and France to advance on the roadmap that we proposed and we will do the same with the Lebanese authorities.”
• French Ambassador to Israel Frédéric Journès told Israeli media “The big problem is ‘how do you start the negotiation?’ Here, it begins to be complicated because Israel says ‘we want to disassociate it with what is happening in Gaza,” Journès said, adding that Hizbullah refuses to agree to that.
• US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with Israeli counterpart Gallant this week. A Pentagon spokesperson said “We are concerned about an increase in activity in the north. We don’t want this to escalate to a broad regional conflict and we urge de-escalation.”

Looking ahead: The IDF is undertaking a series of exercises in which troops are trained for different combat frameworks in the northern arena.

• According to the IDF, the exercises included “combat scenario(s) at varying ranges, while emphasizing the capabilities of movement in complex terrain, advancement along mountainous routes, the activation of multi-faceted fire and combat in various terrain.”

Hostage deal: The UN Security Council last night passed a US-sponsored resolution calling on Hamas to accept the deal. 14 states on the 15-member council voted in favour, with only Russia abstaining.

• US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield  said the council had “united behind a deal that will save lives and help Palestinian civilians in Gaza start to rebuild and heal. United behind a deal that will reunite hostages with their families after eight months in captivity. United behind a deal that will lead to a more secure Israel and unlock the possibility of more progress, including calm along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon.”
• In supporting the resolution, British Ambassador to the UN Barbara Woodward expressed the UK’s “steadfast support of a credible and irreversible pathway towards a two-state solution”, adding that “a sustainable peace must also include Hamas no longer being in control of Gaza and international support for the Palestinian Authority so that it can resume governance and security responsibilities across the West Bank and Gaza. The UK stands ready to support this.”
• The final draft of the resolution removed a demand Israel not institute a security buffer zone on the Gazan side of the Israel-Gaza border.
• Despite not having accepted the latest proposal, Hamas yesterday responded to the UN vote, declaring its “readiness to cooperate with the mediators to enter into indirect negotiations on the implementation of these principles that are in line with the demands of our people and our resistance.”
• Israeli diplomat Reut Shafir Ben Naftali said that “from the very first days following Hamas’s invasion and brutal massacre on October 7th, Israel’s goals have been very clear: To bring all our hostages home and to dismantle Hamas’s capabilities. Israel is committed to these goals – to free all the hostages, destroy Hamas’ military and governing capabilities, and ensure that Gaza does not pose a threat to Israel in the future.”
• In parallel to the UN, the US is continuing its regional shuttle diplomacy. Secretary of State Blinken, on his eighth visit to the region since October 7th, met with Netanyahu on Monday night. He reinforced the US’s ironclad commitment to Israel’s security, whilst expressing cautious optimism over a hostage deal.
• According to Reuters, Netanyahu reaffirmed his commitment to the current proposal.

Gaza Strip: The IDF continues to operate against Hamas targets in the south and centre of the Strip.

• The military announced that four IDF soldiers were killed and another six injured, five of them seriously in a booby trapped explosion that caused a three-story building in Rafah to collapse. Afterwards troops found a tunnel shaft underneath the building.
• The fallen soldiers were named as Maj. Tal Pshebilski Shaulov, 24, from Gedera. Staff Sgt. Eitan Karlsbrun, 20, from Modiin, Sgt. Almog Shalom, 19, from Hamadia, Sgt. Yair Levin, 19, from Givat Harel. They all served in the Givati Brigade’s reconnaissance unit. Shalom and Levin had not yet completed their training.
• Their deaths bring the total of fallen soldiers since the ground operation began to 299, and 650 since October 7^th.
• On Monday, the IDF said the Air Force (IAF), “struck and eliminated Hamas terrorists, including Nukhba Forces operatives, in the central Gaza Strip. Simultaneously, the IAF struck underground terrorist infrastructure in the Deir al-Balah area.”
• In addition, “aircraft struck and dismantled approximately 35 terror targets throughout the Gaza Strip, including military structures, weapons storage facilities, launch sites, observation posts, terrorist cells, and additional military infrastructure.”
• In the Rafah area, according to the IDF, “troops eliminated armed terrorist cells in close-quarters encounters and located intelligence materials in several targeted raids in the area. An IAF aircraft eliminated a Hamas sniper who posed a threat to the troops in the area.”

Northern front: Air raid sirens continue to be heard across northern Israel. There have been numerous account of hostile aircraft infiltrations mostly emanating from Lebanon but also further east.

• This morning there was an interception off the coastal area of Haifa, the first time the city has been targeted since January.
• Further up the coast on Monday, an IDF aerial defence system successfully intercepted two aerial targets over Nahariya. According to the IDF, “two additional targets that crossed from Lebanon fell in the area of Kabri. As a result, a fire broke out and damage was caused in the area.”
• In addition, 50 projectiles were also fired at the central Golan from Lebanon. Several were successfully intercepted, while others landed in open areas. No injuries were reported.
• Hezbollah also continues to launch anti-tank missile, on Monday several launches were identified toward the areas of Manara, Yir’on, Avivim, Margaliot, and Yiftach. According to the IDF, “several hits were identified on structures in the areas of Manara and Yir’on. Additionally, fires broke out in the areas of Yir’on, Yiftach and Manara.
• In response, the IDF fired artillery towards to source of the fire in the areas of Salhani, Ayta ash Shab, and Hanine in southern Lebanon.
• In addition, a surface-to-air missile was launched toward an IAF UAV that was operating in Lebanese airspace. As a result, the UAV was damaged and fell in Lebanese territory.
• In response IAF fighter jets struck a Hezbollah military complex used to smuggle weapons from Syria into Lebanon in the Baalbek area.
• The IDF also revealed that since the beginning of the war they have successfully intercepted over 150 aerial threats fired towards Israel from multiple fronts. This includes, “rockets, surface-to-surface missiles, and cruise missiles.”

Context: Israelis are still celebrating the heroic rescue of four hostages over the weekend, as further details emerged of the operation and the hostages’ conditions whilst in captivity.

• However, 120 hostages remain captive in Gaza, now held for 248 days. Despite continued IDF progress in gaining operational control over much of the Gaza Strip, they have only successfully freed seven hostages, in three rescue missions over the last eight months.
• The likeliest method for freeing large numbers of remaining hostages seems to be via a negotiated deal.
• Israel’s Channel 12 yesterday gave full purported details on the current Israeli proposal for a ceasefire/hostage release deal.
• The proposal, which formed the basis of President Biden’s public announcement of the latest terms in late May, offers a commitment to end the war in Gaza even before all hostages have been released by Hamas.
• Across 18 clauses, the plan calls for a three-phase process, with Clause 15 providing for “restoration of a sustainable calm (cessation of military hostilities permanently) and its commencement prior to the exchange of hostages and prisoners…” in the second phase.
• If accurate, this clause is hugely significant, given that the apparently unbridgeable difference between the two parties has previously been on whether or not a deal would provide explicitly for a permanent ceasefire.
• As has been previously reported, the first phase would see the release of 33 hostages: all woman hostages, including soldiers, as well as men over 50 and all civilians with injuries or heath issues.
• Israel, in turn, would release 30 Palestinian security prisoners per hostage (50 per hostage in the case of female soldiers). In a notable concession to Hamas demands, the names of the security prisoners released would be “subject to lists to be provided by Hamas based on precedence of their imprisonment.”
• The released prisoners would include multiple inmates serving life sentences, who would be prevented from going to the West Bank but allowed to return to Gaza or move abroad.
• The prime minister’s office immediately refuted the released text, insisting that its proposal did not allow for the ending of the war before the achievement of Israel’s war aim of the full defeat of Hamas. The “document that was presented is incomplete and misleads the public,” it said.
• Now weeks after Biden first publicly presented the proposal, an official answer from Hamas remains outstanding. Secretary of State Blinken, currently on his eighth regional visit since October 7^th, told reporters in Cairo yesterday that “my message to governments throughout the region… if you want a ceasefire, press Hamas to say ‘yes’.”

Looking ahead: Blinken is expected to continue his regional visit with a trip to Qatar, where efforts will be made to put additional pressure on Hamas to accept the terms of a deal

Labour Party recognition: Reports in the UK suggest Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer is expected to make a commitment to Palestinian statehood in the party’s upcoming election manifesto.

• Unlike recent moves by Ireland, Spain, and Norway, however, which recognised a Palestinian state immediately, Starmer is likely to follow the line of current Foreign Secretary Cameron – that statehood is to be part of a process, with recognition to come at what Reuters describes as “an appropriate time in peace talks”.
• Starmer’s stance is expected to endorse delayed recognition, in stark contrast to his predecessor as leader, Jeremy Corbyn, who had previously insisted that recognising Palestine would be an early priority of his premiership.
• Israel will nonetheless likely be concerned by a unilateral change in policy, due to the intimate UK-Israel bilateral relationship.
• In the aftermath of October 7^th, much of the Israeli public has become sceptical on the wisdom of pursuit of the two state solution, and there is minimal appetite in Israel to acknowledge Palestinian statehood at this time.
• The concern of many Israelis stems from the question of how it can be ensured that a future Palestinian state will not involve Hamas, and that the significant reforms of antisemitic incitement and inducement to terror are enacted. There is scepticism also that so corrupt and ineffective an institution as the Palestinian Authority is capable of such reform.
• However, both the Biden administration and Foreign Secretary Cameron have publicly referred to recognition as a possible element along the path to peace and two states, in moves which break the two states’ traditional position that such talk is premature until substantive issues have been addressed in bilateral negotiations.
• A new Labour government will want to be seen to support pro-peace partners in the region, both Israeli and Arab, including Starmer building relations with the newly elected leader of the Israeli Labour Party Yair Golan.
• If recognition is incorporated into part of a peace process, UK announcements could be part of dual reward/incentive to both sides. If, for example it were also to include moving the embassy and recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital or affirming that the State of Palestine is the solution for Palestinian refugees, with no “right of return” to Israel that would threaten its status as the nation state of the Jewish people.
• The UK government can also play a supportive role encouraging Israeli-Saudi Arabian normalisation as part of a wider regional deal.
• Immediate recognition of the kind pursued by Ireland, Spain, and Norway runs the risk of raising unrealistic expectations, whilst having no direct effect on realities on the ground.

Israel criticises draft UNSC hostage resolution: Israel is concerned over e a US-led UN Security Council resolution in support of the hostage negotiation proposal announced by President Biden last week.

• Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations Gilad Erdan has informed his US counterpart Linda Thomas-Greenfield that Israel will not support the resolution, which is set for debate in the next few days.
• As well as providing support for the plan, the resolution, which may also face pushback from Security Council permanent members Russia and China, proclaims an “unwavering commitment to achieving the vision of a negotiated two-state solution… consistent with international law and relevant UN resolutions, and in this regard stresses the importance of unifying the Gaza Strip with the West Bank under the Palestinian Authority.”
• According to Biden, the proposed hostage deal plan would have three stages:
  • In the first, a cease-fire would be imposed for six weeks, during which Israeli forces would withdraw from populated areas in Gaza. Hamas would release female, elderly and sick hostages and Israel would release hundreds of Palestinian security prisoners. Gazans would return to their homes.
  • Phase Two would see all remaining living hostages released, including male soldiers. Israel would withdraw its remaining forces from Gaza. A permanent cease-fire would be effected if Hamas lived up to its obligations.
  • Phase Three would see a major project of reconstruction begun in Gaza.
• Israel has made clear that it will not accept a deal which conclusively ends the war in Gaza. Its objection to the Security Council resolution focusses on the use of the word “ceasefire”, as opposed to an original draft’s wording of “cessation of hostilities”.
• Israel also objects to the resolution stressing that it “rejects any attempt at demographic or territorial change in the Gaza Strip, including actions that reduce the territory of Gaza, such as through the permanent establishment officially or unofficially of so-called buffer zones.” After October 7^th, a buffer zone on the Gazan side of the Gaza-Israel border is currently viewed as essential to reassure and protect Israeli border communities.

UAE-Palestinian tensions: Axios’s Barak Ravid has revealed that UAE and Palestinian officials clashed at a recent meeting between Arab officials and US Secretary of State Blinken.

• At the meeting, whose theme was planning a post-war strategy for Gaza, Blinken was joined by the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait and the UAE, as well as Palestinian minister Hussein al-Sheikh, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’s closest deputy.
• Sources claim that Emirati Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed criticised al-Sheikh and the Palestinian Authority, saying that he hadn’t seen much in the way of the reform of the Authority demanded by the US.
• He reportedly referred to the Palestinian leadership as “Ali Baba and the forty thieves”, and that senior officials were “useless” and therefore “replacing them with one another will only lead to the same result.”
• “Why would the UAE give assistance to the Palestinian Authority without real reforms?” he asked.
• Emirati officials confirmed the reports and said that “His Highness added that if the Palestinian Authority paid as much attention to its own people as it does to security coordination with Israel the Palestinians will be in much better shape.”
• The Emirati leadership is associated with figures within Fatah opposed to the leadership of President Abbas. The Palestinian closest to the regime in Abu Dhabi is longtime Abbas critic and former Palestinian Security Minister Mohammed Dahlan.
• When Abbas recently replaced former Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh with Mohammad Mustafa, the UAE reportedly cautioned the US that, as a confidant of Abbas, Mustafa would be no improvement. They lobbied instead for Salam Fayyad, the former Palestinian Prime Minister widely admired for his moderation and pragmatic approach to state-building.

Looking ahead: Labour’s manifesto is expected to be published next week, ahead of the UK general election on July 4^th.

• Hostage deal talks involving Qatari, Egyptian and US mediators are continuing, though reports suggest Hamas is set to reject the terms of Biden’s/Israel’s proposal. The gulf between the two sides on the provisions for ending the war in Gaza appear impassable at present.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu is to address a joint session of the US Congress on July 24^th, following a bipartisan invitation from both Republican and Democrat House leaderships.

Photo credit: Amos Ben-Gershom (GPO)

The north: An IDF reservist was killed and at least ten people wounded yesterday in a drone attack on the Druze village of Hurfeish in the Upper Galilee.

• The attack, claimed by Hezbollah, comprised two separate drone strikes, the second seemingly timed to deliberately target first responders.
• The IDF named the fatality as Staff Sgt. (res.) Refael Kauders, 39. One of the injured is in critical condition. IAF helicopters evacuated the wounded to a Galilee Medical Centre in Nahariya and Rambam Hospital in Haifa.
• Hezbollah also released footage showing a direct hit on an Iron Dome missile defence launcher yesterday.
• The IDF confirmed strikes in response to the drone attacks, including Hezbollah infrastructure in Naqoura and Matmoura, buildings used by the terror group in Ayta ash-Shab, and an observation post in Khiam. Lebanese media last night reported Israeli strikes north of Bint Jbeil and in the area of Tyre.
• President Yitzhak Herzog commented on the drone attack at the Jerusalem Day state ceremony at Ammunition Hill, saying, “We can’t remain indifferent to this terror. For months now, Israel has been attacked by Iranian proxies in Lebanon on a daily basis, clearly violating all international resolutions and agreements. The world has to wake up and realize that Israel is left with no choice but to defend its citizens. Israel will do this firmly and forcefully, and don’t come complaining when the situation gets out of control.”
• Visiting the north yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu said, referring to the fires caused by Hezbollah attacks which this week consumed 3,460 acres of land, “Yesterday, the ground here burned. I’m glad that you extinguished that. But the ground also burned in Lebanon. Anyone who thinks that he can attack us and we will sit idly by is making a big mistake. We are prepared for a very intensive operation in the north. One way or another, we will restore security to the north.”

Hostage talks: Following President Biden’s Friday speech and ceasefire proposal, talks between Israel and Hamas appear close to collapsing. The US has blamed Hamas, with the President branding the group “the only obstacle to a complete ceasefire” and confirming “Israel’s readiness to move forward” with the terms he set out last week. Matthew Miller, a spokesman for the State Department, said that “Hamas should accept the deal now…the only thing standing between the people of Gaza and a ceasefire is Hamas.”

• Last night, a Hamas spokesman said that the ceasefire proposal had been rejected by negotiators. He also confirmed that Hamas’s position was that that Biden’s proposal was simply a ruse designed to lure the organisation into another round of negotiations without an Israeli commitment to end the fighting and withdraw fully from the Gaza Strip.

Gaza Strip: The IDF continues to operate in the Rafah area and in central Gaza. It confirmed yesterday that it had taken “operational control” over east Bureij and Deir al-Balah.

• Last night, the Israeli Air Force struck a Hamas compound embedded in a UNRWA school in the Nuseirat refugee camp it says was being used by 20-30 Nukhba commandos who had participated in the 7^th October attacks as well as PIJ members. While it is unclear how many terrorists were killed, Palestinian sources suggest the strike caused dozens of civilian fatalities.
• The IDF also continues its operations elsewhere in the Gaza Strip having located a rocket launcher it says was “ready to use” close to the border fence, identified and destroyed a significant tunnel used to store weapons in Rafah.
• IDF troops also identified several suspects attempting to infiltrate Israel from the Rafah area. Troops engaged the suspects, who opened fire. The IAF eliminated two of the suspects, before tank fire killed a third.

Context: The drone attacks appears to be the most sophisticated attack on a civilian community since October 8^th. While most of the victims appear to be soldiers, the attack was on a village football field, not a military installation.

• The IDF will investigate how two such drones were able to penetrate Israeli airspace undetected, without triggering defence systems or warning sirens. Flying drones at low altitude helps prevent their detection, but it was still expected that the IDF had learned lessons from such tactics used by Hezbollah in its near-daily multi-site attacks on northern Israel over the last eight months.
• Hezbollah has taken to trying to reduce Israel’s technological edge by targeting observation posts and surveillance equipment. Its attacks are increasing, with the Shin Bet recording over 1,000 attacks (rockets, anti-tank missiles, drones) in the month of May. In comparison, in January they recorded 334 attacks, and in February 534, whilst in both March and April over 740.
• The precise Hezbollah attacks on both an Israeli civilian community and the Iron Dome launcher attests to their level of sophistication, both in terms of intelligence and operational capability.
• One explanation for this increase is the connectivity of the northern and southern fronts, with Hezbollah’s intensified attacks increasing the pressure on Israel in Gaza.
• 10 Israeli civilians and, after Kauders’s death, 15 soldiers and reservists have been killed on the Israeli side, while Hezbollah has reported 331 of its fighters killed. 62 operatives of other armed groups in southern Lebanon have also died. It is understood that around 25 civilians have also died in Lebanon – the high ratio of combatants to civilians killed indicating the precision of IDF strikes.
• Military officials have briefed that as a result of IDF strikes on Hezbollah personnel, the group has switched up its operations, with operatives now travelling around in smaller numbers.
• The US President’s ceasefire proposal was relatively similar to one rejected in January and involved three phases beginning with an exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, the IDF’s withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, and the rebuilding of the coastal enclave.
• However, the proposal envisions a “day after” in Gaza “without Hamas in power”. The group has repeatedly rejected such a post-war reality, and appears to be using this negotiating position to refuse attempts to reach a ceasefire.
• Israeli Defence Minister Gallant vowed that “any negotiations with the Hamas terrorist organisation will only be conducted under fire”. Netanyahu has also been quoted as saying “I am not willing to stop the war…we can stop the fighting for 42 days in order to return hostages, but we will not give up on total victory.”
• Despite Israel achieving almost complete operational control of the Strip, the attempted infiltration shows Hamas’s continued determination to launch attacks against Israel.

Looking ahead: With the north now the most significant kinetic front currently faced by Israel, the IDF has increased its preparations for more extensive engagement, possibly involving a ground incursion into southern Lebanon.

• The Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese news outlet al-Akhbar alleges that the UK has warned the Lebanese government that Israel means to launch a significant offensive in mid-June.
• Operations in Rafah are predicted to last another month.

What’s happened: After two days of large fires caused by Hezbollah missiles and drones raging in northern Israel, firefighters have now gained control.

• IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Halevi visited the area and said, “We are nearing the point at which a decision will have to be made, and the IDF is primed and very ready for that decision. We have been attacking here for eight months. Hezbollah has paid a very-very high price and has raised the intensity in the past few days, and we are prepared to pivot to an offensive in the north.”
• Halevi added, “we are prepared after a very good process of training, up to the level of an IDF General Staff drill, to transition to attack in the north. Strong defence, readiness for offence, we are nearing the decision point.”
• Defence Minister Gallant also held a situation assessment. According to his office, he “reviewed the operational and intelligence efforts by IDF troops in the face of Hezbollah’s aggression, the ongoing attacks in Lebanese territory to stop terrorists and the troops’ preparations for a high-intensity operation against the Shiite terrorist organisation.”
• Earlier in the day, Ministers Gantz and Eisenkot met with the representatives of the (northern) Confrontation Line Communities Forum. After the meeting, Gantz said, “The biggest operative challenge today is in the northern theatre and in the country’s north, and the biggest moral challenge is in the south, in the Gaza Strip. Therefore, alongside the fighting, the right thing at this time is to get the hostages back, to act to get the residents of the north back home safely, to get the State of Israel back on track. That isn’t going to be easy. It will have costs; it will be painful; but it is the right thing.”
• On Tuesday night, Israel’s inner war cabinet convened to discussed Hezbollah’s escalation of attacks on northern Israel.

Hostage negotiations: In parallel, Egyptian, Qatari, and American officials will be meeting today in Doha to discuss ways of reviving the hostage deal negotiations.

• The sides await an answer from Hamas to the latest Israeli proposal. Israeli officials expect Hamas to respond affirmatively but conditionally, and to demand guarantees about the war’s conclusion. One Israeli official said, “Hamas won’t get a better offer than this.”
• Israeli media also quoted a senior Israeli official saying, “We won’t submit a better proposal. We’ve stretched the limits of our flexibility.”
• Hamas continues to demand the agreement guarantees the end of the war and an IDF withdrawal from Gaza.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke on the telephone yesterday with French President Macron to discuss the proposal. Netanyahu told Macron that “the proposal allows Israel to achieve all of the war’s objectives that it defined, including Hamas’s elimination.” Netanyahu also said, “Alongside freeing the hostages, that was and remains Israel’s fundamental objective in the war, and it is determined to achieve it.”

Context: There is growing pressure on the Israeli government to agree to a hostage deal and improve the situation in the north, either diplomatically or militarily.

• Hezbollah has increased their level of attack. According to the Shin Bet there were over 1,000 attacks (rockets, anti-tank missiles, drones) in the month of May. There has been a gradual rise: in January they recorded 334 attacks, and in February 534, whilst in both March and April over 740.
• As a result of the fires, the damage is twice the size of the area that was affected during the Second Lebanon War of 2006. Around 3,460 acres of woodlands has been damaged from rocket and drone fire out of Lebanon.
• Whilst waiting for Hamas’s response to a hostage deal, both ultra-Orthodox parties have now declared their support for a deal.
• On Tuesday Shas followed the United Torah Judaism (UJT) support from the day before. According to a Shas statement, “The deal contains far-reaching steps for bringing back the hostages and fulfilling the commandment to redeem captives. Shas supports the proposal and strengthens the prime minister and the war cabinet in withstanding all pressure to finalise the deal and save the lives of many of our brothers and sisters in need in captivity.”
• The ultra-Orthodox support for a deal is important for Netanyahu to receive their political backing and further dilute the influence of far-right ministers Ben Gvir and Smotrich. It is also serves as welcome unifier for the wider Israeli public, particularly in light of the dispute over their service in the military.
• There are suggestions that the ultra-Orthodox parties’ announcements came at Netanyahu’s behest, in a bid to keep Gantz in the government. Advancing a hostage deal could be the prerequisite that would say Gantz remain, despite his setting a June 8^th deadline for Netanyahu to present a plan for the ‘day after’ in Gaza.
• In the latest sign of dysfunctionality between the inner war cabinet and the wider security cabinet, according to Maariv the war cabinet asked to meet with the Fire and Rescue Authority commissioner to discuss the fires in northern Israel. National Security Minister Ben Gvir, who has ministerial authority over the commissioner, refused to authorise him to meet with the war cabinet and demanded that he meet with the entire security cabinet.
• Meanwhile, in the south the IDF launched an operation yesterday into the Bureij area in the centre of the Gaza Strip. The IDF said they made swift progress and already exposed several underground facilities, and weapons storage sites.
• The speed of IDF advancement is further illustration of the overall incapacitation of Hamas and the IDF’s increasing control in the Strip.

Looking ahead: Today is Jerusalem Day (marking the unification of the city in 1967). Three thousand police have been deployed to secure events marked by the traditional annual march through the old city this afternoon.

• CIA Director William Burns is scheduled to arrive back in the region in the next few days to try to advance the hostage deal.

What’s happened: Fires continued to rage in Israel’s north overnight, caused by rockets and drones fired from southern Lebanon by Hezbollah yesterday.

• An IDF Home Front Command’s fire battalion has worked in conjunction with Israel Fire and Rescue Services across a large area, comprising multiple northern communities, with the result that most fires are now under control.
• With many residents of the northern border areas evacuated south since October 7^th, no fatalities were reported. Six reservists and five civilians have been treated for smoke inhalation.
• One fire in Amiad, brought under control today, consumed 4,000 dunams (nearly 990 acres) of land.
• Fires caused by rocket and drone fire on Sunday destroyed 10,000 dunams (over 2,470 acres) of plant life, including in nature reserves. The damage was compounded by the unseasonably high temperatures throughout Israel.
• A loud explosion heard this morning in Safed is currently being investigated.
• Israel yesterday announced it had killed prominent Hezbollah fighter Hussein Sabra in an airstrike in Tyre, southern Lebanon. The IDF said Sabra was a senior figure in Hezbollah’s Force Build-up Unit, particularly involved in efforts to equip and enhance its Aerial Defence Unit.

Gaza: The IDF yesterday confirmed the deaths of four hostages: 51 year old Israeli-British citizen Nadav Popplewell from Kibbutz Nirim; 85 year old Amiram Cooper, one of the founders of Kibbutz Nir Oz; 80 year old Haim Perry from Kibbutz Nir Oz; and  80 year old Yoram Metzger from Kibbutz Nir Oz.

• An expert committee of the Health Ministry, the Religious Affairs Ministry and chief rabbi determined their death based on intelligence, with the whereabouts of their bodies unknown.
• News of the deaths sparked further protests against the government and demanding that a deal for the release of the remaining hostages be secured. Demonstrators blocked the Ayalon Highway last night for about an hour.
• The IDF continues “intelligence-based, targeted operations” in Rafah.
• “Over the past day, IAF fighter jets struck over 50 targets in the Gaza Strip, including terrorist infrastructure, weapons storage facilities and military structures.”

Context: Having been a second front during the nearly nine months of the war in Gaza, the north is now the primary front of kinetic activity.

• Since October 8^th, Israel and Hezbollah have traded fire on a near-daily basis, with Hezbollah launching over 4,700 missile, drone, and rocket attacks.
• Hezbollah joined Hamas’s attack on October 8^th, but at a level short of necessitating a full-blown escalation. The vast majority of targets struck have been close to the border area, to keep IDF forces occupied and divert resources.
• A significant escalation has been seen in recent weeks. The Alma Centre finds that May was the most intense month of fighting in that time, with Hezbollah carrying out 325 attacks, an average of 10 a day. These include 95 incidents of anti-tank launches and 85 UAV infiltration incidents.
• 10 Israeli civilians and 14 soldiers and reservists have been killed on the Israeli side, while Hezbollah has reported 331 of its fighters killed. 62 operatives of other armed groups in southern Lebanon have also died. It is understood that around 25 civilians have also died in Lebanon – the high ratio of combatants to civilians killed indicating the precision of IDF strikes.
• Around 70,000 Israelis remain internally displaced, having been moved from homes near the border. A similar number of Lebanese citizens are also displaced.
• Hezbollah has often targeted key northern military facilities, including the Galilee Formation’s headquarters, and the Mt. Meron air control base. The weekend saw hits on the Gibor Regional Brigade base near Kiryat Shmona with heavy-payload Burkan rockets.
• Hundreds of homes in civilian communities in close proximity to the border have also been heavily targeted.
• Beyond the physical damage, the combined effects of striking homes and military targets is intended to have a psychological effect on the Israeli population.
• Hezbollah has significantly more sophisticated weapons than Hamas, including Iranian-produced Almas anti-tank guided missiles with a 10-kilometre range and the shorter range Burkan with its heavy payload. 340 such heavy rocket attacks have so far been launched. Iranian UAVs, with the ability to launch missiles, have also been deployed.
• This greater sophistication was also demonstrated this weekend by Hezbollah downing an IDF Hermes 9,000 unmanned aerial vehicle, the third Hermes to have been downed since October 8^th. Hezbollah’s ability to do this illustrates the extent to which Iran has helped it upgrade its firepower.
• Israeli officials have reassured the public that despite the downing of these weapons, built in self-destruction mechanisms mean that no sensitive material falls into Hezbollah hands.
• Israel’s response to these attacks has largely been a combination of air and artillery strikes into Lebanon targeting Hezbollah’s military leadership and infrastructure. While primarily destroying targets in the south of the country, some Israeli airstrikes have been reported as far north as Baalbeck and the Beqaa Valley – Baalbeck is a vital logistics hub for Hezbollah’s military operations and, sitting near the border with Syria, a key point on the smuggling route from Iran.
• Israeli officials have repeatedly expressed support for US and French diplomatic efforts to reach a peaceful resolution, but have long anticipated that a potential ground incursion may be necessary at some point.
• Israel views its current paradigm of 70,000 citizens being internally displaced due to Hezbollah’s aggression as untenable and intolerable. The longer they remain unable to safely return to their homes, the higher the risk of a military escalation in southern Lebanon.
• While the US and France have spearheaded a series of diplomatic efforts to defuse this situation, they have thus far proved unsuccessful.
• Israel continues to insist on the robust implementation of UN Resolution 1701 passed at the end of the Second Lebanon War in 2006. Most significantly, it stipulates Hezbollah forces, be pushed back as far as the Litani River ensuring Israeli civilian are out of range of Hezbollah’s accurate Kornet anti-tank missiles.
• Any move away from the border on the part of Hezbollah fighters will need to be monitored and sustainable, since Hezbollah has a track record of initially complying with such deconfliction steps, before then moving its fighters back closer to the border.

Looking ahead: This week, the IDF continues to make preparations for a campaign in the northern arena.

• Pressure is mounting on the government for northern residents to return to some form of normality, with the optimistic hope that by the start of the school year on September 1^st, people will be back home. Ongoing escalations mean this is far from guaranteed.
• The current situation suits Hezbollah in keeping Israel engaged in a perpetual state of conflict below the threshold of all-out war, while ensuring Israel has to commit resources which, in the longer term, has social and economic costs.
• Efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza are set to continue, whilst the sides await a Hamas response to the Israeli proposal publicly floated by President Biden last