Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Updated March 27, 2025

Operation Strength and Sword enters its second day

What’s happened: Operation Strength and Sword entered its second day, with Israeli attacks on targets in the Gaza Strip continuing albeit at a much lower level of intensity than on Tuesday.

The Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry reported 14 fatalities overnight from the IDF’s operation.
Prime Minister Netanyahu released a pre-recorded statement last night, referencing the two weeks during which the ceasefire was maintained despite Hamas releasing no hostages. “In the past two weeks, Israel did not initiate any military action in the hope that Hamas would change course. Well, that didn’t happen. While Israel accepted the offer of President Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, Hamas flatly refused to do so. This is why I authorised yesterday the renewal of military action against Hamas.”
Netanyahu added that “From now on, negotiations will be conducted only under fire.”
The operation has so far successfully targeted the political leadership of Hamas and other terrorist organisations. Following IDF’s claim that it eliminated at least five senior Hamas political leaders – including Issam al-Da’alis who effectively functioned as Hamas’ prime minister in the Strip – today the IDF added several more to the list:
- Mahmoud Marzouk Ahmed Abu-Watfa, who served as Minister of Internal Affairs and was in charge of Hamas’ Internal Security Forces.
- Bahajat Hassan Mohammed Abu-Sultan, who served as Head of Hamas’ Internal Security Forces.
- Ahmed Amar Abdullah Alhat, who served as Hamas’ Minister of Justice.
The American Interim Ambassador to the UN, Dorothy Shea, said that blame for the resumption of combat “lies solely with Hamas.” She said that the terrorist group had “steadfastly refused every proposal and deadline they’ve been presented over the past few weeks, including a bridge proposal to extend the ceasefire beyond the holidays of Ramadan and Passover to allow time to negotiate a framework for a permanent ceasefire.”
A cruise missile launched from Yemen by Houthi jihadists was intercepted before it entered Israeli airspace.

Context: Israel’s focus on Hamas’ political leadership is an indication of its concern during the course of the two-month ceasefire about Hamas’ ability to reconstitute its governing capacity in the Strip.

The renewal of fighting finds Israel in a more difficult domestic situation than before. The announcement of the government’s intention to fire Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar, coupled with the intention to dismiss the Attorney General, have provoked intense opposition from the Government’s opponents and critics.
Writing in Israel Hayom, Yoav Limor contrasts the current domestic divisions to the unity that prevailed in the immediate aftermath of October 7. Then “an absolute majority of the public supported the immediate launching of war, now, the majority of the public supports a solution to the hostage issue before continuing the fighting.”
There are 59 hostages, of whom 24 are assumed to be alive, still in Hamas captivity. Families of the hostages as well as survivors of Hamas captivity expressed anguish at the collapse of the ceasefire, with many coming to protest at Hostages Square in Tel Aviv. Einav Zangauker, mother of hostage Matan and one of the most vocal activists on behalf of the hostages, marched to the Gaza border with her daughter Natalie and other protesters, and denounced the decision to end the ceasefire.
Multiple reports yesterday indicated that the US administration had been briefed on Israel’s plan to renew fighting in Gaza.

Looking Ahead: It is unclear if Israel is planning another land operation in Gaza.

Yesterday the IDF ordered evacuations in several areas near the border with Israel, but it has said nothing regarding the Netzarim corridor, an area that bisects the strip from the border to the sea which the IDF controlled from the end of October 2023 until the beginning of the ceasefire in January.
Efforts by the US and Egypt, among others, to reinstate the ceasefire by means of a Hamas agreement to free some hostages continue. “Egypt and Qatar are planning to have quick connection with Israel side for urgent ceasefire and to start arranging quick meetings in Cairo for entering the next phase and exchange hostages and prisoners in order to achieve peace,” an unnamed Egyptian official told the Washington Post.

March 18, 2025

Operation Strength and Sword begins as Israel attacks dozens of Hamas targets

What’s happened: The IDF has launched a series of what it termed preemptive strikes in Gaza, targeting leadership officials, mid-ranking military Hamas commanders, and terrorist infrastructure.

An Israeli official said that the strikes were based on Hamas’s readiness to execute terror attacks, build up force, and re-arm.
The Prime Minister’s Office announced that Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Katz instructed the IDF “to act with strength against the Hamas terrorist organisation in the Gaza Strip.” This follows Hamas’s repeated refusal to release our hostages and its rejection of all the proposals it received from US President’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, and from the mediators.
The statement added that: “The IDF is currently targeting Hamas terrorist organisation objectives across the Gaza Strip, with the goal of achieving the war objectives as determined by the political leadership, including the release of all our hostages – both the living and the fallen.”
Defence Minister Katz said “If Hamas does not release all the hostages, the gates of hell will be opened on Gaza and Hamas’s murderers and rapists will encounter the IDF at an intensity they haven’t known until today.”
Israel has stated that at least five prominent Hamas officials were eliminated in last night’s air strikes. These include:
- Issam al-Da’alis, considered to be one of Hamas’s chief administrators who effectively served as Hamas’s prime minister in Gaza.
- Bahjat Abu Sultan, who held a rank equivalent to brigadier-general, was responsible for domestic operations in Gaza and was considered to be a prominent Hamas leader.
- Ahmad Omar Al-Taha, who served as the director general of Hamas’s Justice Ministry in the Gaza Strip.
- Mahmoud Abu Watfeh, who held the rank of major-general and served as the director general of Hamas’s Interior Ministry in Gaza (the commander of Hamas’s security services).
- Hamas politburo member Abu Obaida Al Jimasi, was a Hamas leader who oversaw the administration of the southern Gaza Strip. He had not been seen in public since July 2023.
The Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry has that said that 326 Palestinians have been killed in the strikes.
Hamas said that Israel would bear “full responsibility for the repercussions of its treacherous aggression in Gaza,” which it said has “exposed the hostages in Gaza to an unknown fate. We hold the criminal Netanyahu and the Nazi Zionist occupation fully responsible for the consequences of the treacherous aggression against Gaza and the defenceless civilians.”
The attack was approved yesterday at a security consultation attended by Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defence Minister Katz, Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer, Chief of Staff Zamir, GSS Director Bar, the director of the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate, and other high-ranking officials.
According to reports, all of them unanimously supported the attack after the hostage release negotiations reached an impasse.
The preemptive offensive plan was kept in closed circles in the IDF to create an element of surprise and deception.
White House Press Secretary Leavitt said that the Trump administration was consulted by the Israelis prior to the strikes. “As President Trump has made clear, Hamas, the Houthis, Iran – all those who seek to terrorise not just Israel but the US – will see a price to pay, and all hell will break loose.”
Leavitt added: “The Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran and Iranian backed terror proxies should take President Trump very seriously when he says he’s not afraid to stand for law-abiding people and stand up for the US and our friend and ally Israel.”
The hostage family forum has expressed its concern that the offensive could endanger the lives of the remaining hostages in Gaza and have demanded a meeting with the prime minister, the defence minister and the head of the negotiating team “in which [the officials] will clarify how they can guarantee that hostages won’t be affected by the military pressure and how they are planning to get them home.”
This morning, the head of the Arabic-language IDF Spokesperson Unit issued a statement calling on residents of the eastern Gaza Strip in areas adjacent to the Israeli border to leave their homes and head westward.

Context: The offensive comes against the background of negotiations that took place in Qatar last week between a delegation from Israel and the Egyptian, Jordanian, Qatari, and UAE foreign ministers, in which the parties reportedly discussed a version of the ‘Witkoff Plan’.

This plan included:
- Hamas releasing ten hostages (presumably all will be alive).
- In exchange, Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners (at a higher ratio than earlier deals) including convicted terrorists serving long sentences.
- Israel will resume the entrance of humanitarian aid and amenities, potentially at a greater volume than before.
- The ceasefire will be extended for a couple of months that will include Passover and Israel’s Independence Day (1^st May).
However, little to no progress has been made on this proposal.
It also comes against the background of the IDF detecting an irregular development in the Gaza Strip in recent days, which might point to Hamas preparations either to launch an attack or to raid Israeli territory. Over the last few weeks, the IDF has tracked preparations being made by Hamas and others for a resumption of hostilities in Gaza Strip. This included the recruitment of hundreds of new terrorists, the distribution of arms and repairs that were made to the command-and-control mechanisms in Hamas’s various battalions.
Despite the tension between the prime minister and Shin Bet Director Bar (Netanyahu has announced his intention to fire Bar) the latter was present alongside the Chief of Staff during the operation.
The renewed strikes take place in a different context to the past war against Hamas: Hezbollah has been decimated in the north, which allows the IDF greater capacity to focus its forces on Gaza; and the Trump administration will likely give the IDF more leeway than did the Biden administration.

Looking ahead: It remains to be seen whether the operation will expand to ground troops reentering Gaza.

If Israel were to re-take Gaza, it may adopt a different approach to the delivery of humanitarian aid. The new IDF Chief of Staff, Zamir, has proposed that the IDF will take over the delivery of aid to Gazans as the only way to ensure Hamas does not profit from the aid. The previous chief of staff was reluctant to take this on, out of concern that it be perceived as military responsibility for the civilian population.

March 13, 2025

Efforts continue in Doha to reach hostage deal extension

What’s happening: White House envoy to the Middle East Witkoff has joined the talks in Qatar to try and secure a deal to release more hostages.

The talks are being held with the Israeli delegation alongside the Egyptian, Jordanian, Qatari and UAE foreign ministers.
According to reports, the focus of the negotiations is a version of the ‘Witkoff Plan’ that includes:
- Hamas releasing ten hostages (presumably all will be alive).
- In exchange Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners (at a higher ratio than earlier deals) including convicted terrorists serving long sentences.
- Israel will resume the entrance of humanitarian aid and amenities, potentially at a greater volume than before.
- The ceasefire will be extended for a couple of months that will include Passover and Israel’s Independence Day (1^st May).
On Wednesday, Prime Minister Netanyahu held consultations with the Israeli negotiators to coordinate their stance ahead of the Doha talks.
He also held a meeting with senior security officials to approve military plans for the Gaza Strip if the negotiations fail.
Israel media reported that despite the publicised tension with the prime minister, head of the Shin Bet, Ronen Bar attended both meetings.
In Washington President Trump appeared to backtrack on his plan to resettle Gazans outside of the Strip, saying, “nobody’s expelling any Palestinians.”

Context: There remains a high level of anguish in Israeli society to secure the release of all the remaining hostages.

This has been compounded by the accounts of recently released hostages that describe horrific conditions of their captivity, including being kept underground, beaten and tortured, and fed morsels of sometimes rotten food.
59 hostages remain in captivity now for 524 days. Of them only 24 are alive, with 35 thought to have been killed.
As a result of information garnered from released hostages, the family of Avinatan Or received their first indication that he is still alive, but being held in horrific conditions.
In the absence of the agreement, there has not yet been a return to fighting, but the IDF has presented a plan to the government as a contingency. The credibility of the military threat, which may be more intense that previous fighting, is intended to pressure Hamas into a deal.
Alongside military action, the new IDF Chief of Staff, Lt Gen Zamir is proposing that the IDF will take over the delivery of aid to Gazans as the only way to ensure Hamas does not profit from the aid. The previous chief of staff was reluctant to take this on, out of concern that it be perceived as military responsibility for the civilian population.
Hamas appear to be particularly satisfied with the revelation that they held direct talks with a US officials, as this broke the long held diplomatic veto by western liberal members of the international community. However US officials played down its significance with Secretary of State Rubio referring to it as a “one-off” that “hasn’t borne fruit.”
There remains residual concerns that if no agreement is reached the US will do a side deal to secure the remaining hostages with US citizenship (Edan Alexander and the bodies of four murdered hostages). It is also possible that they could be released by Hamas as a goodwill gesture, that could further appeal to President Trump.
Overall, it appears US and Israel remain well coordinated. During a meeting in Jeddah earlier this week, Secretary Rubio told Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman, that the US insists that Hamas have no role in any solution for postwar Gaza. Similarly Israeli Foreign Minister Saar has again emphasised that “the war in Gaza will not end without the demilitarisation of Gaza Strip.”
Israel is caught in a bind regarding the Witkoff framework. On one hand, the release of ten more living hostages is highly sought. On the other, it calls into question the fate of those who remain. From Hamas’s perspective, they could agree to this deal, as long as they retain some of the captives as an insurance policy to ensure their survival.

Looking ahead: Despite no breakthrough yet, the fact that the Israeli delegation has not been recalled gives hope that there is still hope a deal can be reached. The next few days are once more seen as critical.

Later today the IDF will present their latest internal investigation, this time focusing on kibbutz Nir Oz.
According to consistent polling, there remains a large majority of the Israeli public in favour of forming an independent state commission of inquiry into October 7th. Last night President Herzog once more endorsed his support for such a commission. So far the government has been unwilling to sanction it.

March 10, 2025

US confirm direct talks with Hamas as Israeli negotiators return to Qatar

What’s happening: Following a Security Cabinet meeting last night, Israel has sent a negotiating team to Doha.

The delegation is being led by ‘M’ from the Shin Bet, along with Coordinator for the Captives and Missing Brig. Gen. (ret) Gal Hirsch, Dr. Ophir Falk, the prime minister’s diplomatic adviser, and other security officials.
Amid the current deadlock in talks, Israel’s Energy Minister Eli Cohen announced that Israel was cutting off the electricity supply in a bid to force Hamas to release hostages. Cohen said, “We will use all the tools at our disposal to bring back the hostages and ensure that Hamas is no longer in Gaza the day after.”
Over the weekend Trump’s envoy for hostage affairs, Adam Boehler, gave a series of interviews to both Israel and US media, where he confirmed he had been in direct talks with Hamas, in parallel to the indirect negotiations mediated by Qatar and Egypt.
It is thought Boehler had initially focused on releasing the remaining hostages with dual US citizenship (Edan Alexander, along with the bodies of four US hostages). However, Boehler stressed that the talks were meant to lead to a wider deal for all the hostages.
Aware of Israeli concerns, Boehler confirmed he discussed it with Minister Dermer. He told CNN, “I understand the consternation and the concern. I wasn’t upset. At the same time, we’re the United States. We’re not an agent of Israel. We have specific interests at play. We did communicate back and forth. We had very specific parameters.”
Later, Boehler told Kan News, “My actions were coordinated with Israel, even though maybe there were some that said they weren’t. My job isn’t to move Israel aside, Israel is a major ally.”
Boehler also said that “some progress” had been made in the talks. He said that Hamas had proposed “a ceasefire that would last between five and ten years in which Hamas would lay down its arms and would not initiate any military action and would not take part in any political activity. I thought that this was an opening proposal that was not at all bad.”
Boehler later commented on X: “Hamas is a terrorist organization that has murdered thousands of innocent people. They are BY DEFINITION BAD people.”

Context: The revelation that the US has been in direct talks with Hamas is unprecedented and has shocked as Israeli officials, with its main interlocutor, Minister Dermer, incredulous.

Hamas was designated a terrorist organisation by the US in 1997, following its campaign of suicide bus bombings in the mid-90s aimed at disrupting the peace process.
Since 2005 the consensus approach of the international community has been to have no direct contact with Hamas until it abides by the three criteria laid out by the Tony Blair‘s led Quartet:
- Disavow violence.
- Recognise Israel’s right to exist.
- Respect previously signed agreements between Israel and the Palestinians.
Boehler’s latest interviews confirm that he was not acting along, but in full coordination with Witkoff and the White House.
Writing in Yediot Ahronot, Itamar Eichner suggests, “It seems that neither Dermer nor Netanyahu understood whom they are dealing with. Trump has a plan, and that is to win a Nobel Prize. In another month and a half, he plans to visit Saudi Arabia, and he needs to resolve the hostage issue by that point. The Nobel Prize is so important to the American president that if he reaches the conclusion that Netanyahu is an obstacle, he will do a Zelensky on him. Trump isn’t there yet, for now.”
With the Israeli delegation returning to Doha, it is not clear which deal they are negotiating.
- The Boehler plan is focused on the release of ten living hostages, (almost half of all the living hostages) in exchange for a 60-day ceasefire and the renewed flow of humanitarian aid.
- Similarly, the Witkoff plan calls for the ceasefire to be extended for the duration of Ramadan and Passover. Half of the hostages (living and dead) are to be released on the first day of the agreement. The other half are to be released as a single group on the last day.
- Israel has consented to the Witkoff plan but it also open to an extension of the first stage along similar formulation as before.
- Or the original plan of stage two, which would include Hamas demilitarising and leaving Gaza (an Israeli demand), a comprehensive hostage-prisoner exchange, as well as a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, the reopening of border crossings, and a permanent ceasefire (a Hamas demand).
One of the ideas that came up in Boehler’s interview was the concept of a “Hudna” that would last between five and ten years in exchange for the release of all the prisoners. This sparked grave concern for Israelis that understand Hamas’s meaning of this term as a temporary refrain until they are strong enough to carry out their next attack.
Even without a Hudna, the IDF has detected signs that Hamas is already preparing for a resumption of fighting, placing explosives and planning ambushes.
Whilst negotiations fail to produce a breakthrough, Hamas is essentially getting a ceasefire with no cost, hence the Israeli decision to stop the aid and electricity as a means to pressure Hamas into releasing more hostages. Israeli officials are also threatening to disconnect the water pipes into Gaza.
According to the latest assessment, Hamas is still holding 59 hostages, 24 of whom are believed to be alive and at least 35 of whom have been killed, for 521 days.

Looking ahead: Witkoff, the president’s envoy, is expected to arrive in Doha tomorrow and join the negotiations.

If there is no progress Israel will consider placing further restrictions on Gaza in an effort to assert more pressure on Hamas.
The political leadership has instructed the IDF to prepare for a resumption of fighting. However the prevailing assessment is that Israel will give the mediators more time to reach an agreement.

March 6, 2025

Trump’s warning to Hamas

What’s happened: President Trump hosted released Israeli hostages in the Oval Office yesterday.

One of the hostages at the meeting was Eli Sharabi, whose hour-long interview on Israeli TV last week shocked the Israeli public with his descriptions of Hamas brutality. Trump posed for a picture with Sharabi, still thin and emaciated more than a month after his release, while holding a cartoon explicitly comparing the released Israeli hostages to concentration camp survivors.
After the meeting with the released Israeli hostages, President Trump took to his social media platform to issue a stark warning to Hamas. “Release all of the Hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered, or it is OVER for you,” he wrote. “This is your last warning! For the leadership, now is the time to leave Gaza, while you still have a chance.”
Secretary of State Rubio added hours later in an interview on Fox News that Trump had lost his patience with Hamas, and was particularly incensed by the hostage release “ceremonies” and the mix-up with the body of murdered hostage Shiri Bibas.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gidon Saar and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy spoke by telephone yesterday about the situation in Gaza. The UK objects to Israel’s suspension of aid deliveries to Gaza, and it issued a joint statement with France and Germany to that effect.
Saar reiterated Israel’s acceptance of the proposal by American special envoy Steve Witkoff to extend the first phase of the ceasefire through the Ramadan and Passover holidays in exchange for more hostage releases. In a tweet after the call, Saar added that “during the 42-day phase one, 25,000 aid trucks entered Gaza – half of Hamas’ budget in Gaza comes from these trucks! Hamas is restoring its military capabilities and recruiting new, young terrorists. This cannot continue!”
Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office had declared that that if Hamas were to change its mind, Israel would immediately commence negotiations about all the details.

Context: The first phase of the ceasefire agreement, scheduled to last 42 days, has come to an end. The deadline for a negotiated agreement for the second phase has come and passed. The status of the ceasefire is, as of now, indeterminate.

Several Arab states have endorsed the Egyptian’s plan as a “counterproposal” to President Trump’s plan for Gaza.
The most important part of the plan is the $53 billion Egyptian proposal to rebuild Gaza without moving its inhabitants out of the Strip. This is in contrast to Trump’s idea to resettle Gaza’s population elsewhere.
The Arab plan calls for Gaza to be governed temporarily by a committee of technocrats not affiliated with Hamas, and for it eventually to be merged with the Palestinian Authority.
Israel primarily objects to the plans ambiguity on Hamas disarmament. The Arab plan calls for Hamas to be left out of governance, but doesn’t fully rule out that Hamas could keep its weapons and still influence Gaza politics in a manner reminiscent of Hezbollah in Lebanon in the last 25 years. Israel insists on a full decommissioning of Hamas weapons.
Israeli officials have cautiously supported Trump’s plan but emphasised any resettlement must be voluntary.
The Arab plan doesn’t demand immediate Palestinian statehood, but it does insist on some kind of long-term plan for a single Palestinian state encompassing the West Bank and Gaza.
While the Trump administration has repeatedly signalled that it is open to compromises on the President’s Gaza plan, it criticised the Arab plan’s insistence on keeping all Gazans inside the Strip even during reconstruction as unrealistic, saying the Arab plan “does not address the reality that Gaza is currently uninhabitable.”
The Egyptian reconstruction plan would depend in funding from the wealthy Gulf monarchies, but notably only two, Bahrain and Qatar, sent heads of state to the Cairo Summit this week where the plan was unveiled.
Writing about both the American and Israeli rejection of the Arab plan, Haaretz’s Amir Tibon notes that “the administration keeps saying it is committed to bringing back all of the hostages and removing Hamas from power. Renewing the war could perhaps achieve the second goal, but at the price of giving up on the first one.”
It has also emerged that the Trump administration has been holding direct talks with Hamas over the release of US hostages held in Gaza. Of the remaining hostages, five have US citizenship, including 21 year old Edan Alexander, who is believed to be alive.
There remains 59 hostages held by Hamas for 517 days. Israel has confirmation that 35 of them are dead, with the hope that the remaining 24 are alive.

Looking Ahead: Despite the current absence of negotiations it is thought that Israel will wait at least another week before relaunching a military assault on Hamas.

All the sides are waiting for Witkoff. His visit has been delayed due to a stalemate in negotiations.
An Israeli official told Maariv newspaper, “Witkoff won’t be coming here as long as there isn’t any progress in the negotiations. He will only come to close a deal. For the time being, that isn’t the situation. There isn’t any progress and, for now, Hamas hasn’t budged from its position. Israel is prepared to give that effort a few days, and it has means for exerting pressure on Hamas before a resumption of war.”

March 4, 2025

IDF releases more reports into October 7ᵗʰ attacks

What’s happened: The IDF have released two more reports of their investigations into what happened in various communities. The latest reports relate to events at kibbutz Kfar Aza and the Nahal Oz military base.

Kfar Aza: 64 members of the Kfar Aza community were murdered and 19 taken hostage, out of a community of around 900 people.

The attack began (as elsewhere) with a massive rocket attack. In total, over 750 rockets were fired at the Kfar Aza area alone.
With no warning having come from the army, at around 06:45 three hang gliders landed in the kibbutz.
Shortly afterwards, around 100 infiltrators entered the community, both Hamas terrorists and other Gazans. It was during this time that the majority of the residents were killed.
An hour later, a second wave entered, leaving the 14 members of the community’s security team to fight around 150 terrorists.
During the second wave, the terrorists began to take hostages.
A small number of IDF forces arrived at this time, but without coordination and with no orderly command. An estimated 250-300 terrorists were able to murder and abduct the kibbutz residents.
Only after 12:00 did the army arrive in more significant numbers, with “fierce combat conducted against hundreds of terrorists entrenched in the kibbutz,” continuing until the early evening.
By late afternoon, the IDF had established numerical supremacy, with around 700 soldiers fighting against 50 Hamas terrorists.
Fighting continued through the night, with the evacuation of the surviving residents carried out in the early hours of the morning.
Throughout the next two days, fighting continued in isolated incidents until, by the afternoon of October 10^th, the kibbutz was finally cleared of terrorists.
In total, around 150 terrorists were killed in the Kfar Aza area.
Eventually, air support arrived, including dozens of drones and helicopters, plus 12 fighter jets, but too late to save most of the residents.
According to the IDF investigation, there were several failures within the military echelon:
- Perhaps the most significant failure was the absence of any warning, which gave Hamas the element of surprise.
- The lack of military coordination and support from the Gaza Division (as it was conquered at the same time).
- The over reliance on tech and monitoring of the border fence, and the lack of forces in and around the kibbutz.
- The lack of knowledge of conditions on the ground on the part of soldiers who did eventually arrive.
- The accessibility of weapons kept in the storage area (the army had previously insisted on the storage to avoid the risk of weapons theft from private homes).

Focal Points in the Battle in Kibbutz Kfar Aza - 7th October 2023 — Source: IDF

Nahal Oz military base: 53 soldiers and officers were killed in combat and 10 soldiers kidnapped to Gaza, including seven female spotters.

On the morning of the attack, there were 162 personnel stationed at the base, but only 81 trained combatants.
Hamas had acquired substantial intelligence pertaining to the base. Based on documents captured from terrorists, they had precise diagrams, including locations of shelters, generators, and security cameras. They knew exactly who occupied which rooms, sleeping arrangements, and command post locations.
Despite the base being located 850 metres from the border fence, no defence protocol to guard against a ground raid.
On the morning of October 7^th, Nahal Oz camp maintained full routine operations without any warnings. At 05:30 the regular patrol left the base.
At 06:29, intense barrage fire targeted the base as female spotters reported enemy approaches to the fence. Soldiers followed their only known procedure: running to shelters, having received no other training for base attacks.
Female spotters followed their protocols, moving to observation positions to identify possible raids.
Following the massive rocket fire directed at the base, most of the soldiers retreated to the shelters. Around 65 Hamas Nukhba terrorists infiltrated the base just after 07:00.
At 07:43, the first Air Force attack drone arrived, but was unable to establish contact with ground forces and therefore unable to identify targets.
By 07:46, terrorists overwhelmed the women’s shelter which housed 31 female soldiers – only six were armed, with one entirely untrained. When the first terrorist entered, they managed to wound him before terrorists threw three grenades inside. Fourteen female soldiers escaped. The terrorists then bound the remaining women and searched for those who had escaped.
At 08:40, two airstrikes targeted areas near the female spotters’ quarters, driving terrorists away and saving eleven female soldiers’ lives.
Over the next four hours, IDF troops continued engaging terrorists, sustaining casualties.
Around 09:00, a second wave of terrorists arrived. Kidnappings from Nahal Oz began at around 10:00, with seven female spotters taken captive from their shelter at around 10:20.
Throughout this period, terrorists attempted to breach the command post but encountered determined resistance from two platoon commanders, including one Bedouin tracker. Six soldiers managed to escape through a bathroom window. Fifteen soldiers and commanders died in the command post.
Among the investigation’s main conclusions are:
- Dealing with a surprise attack compounded the fact that the base did not function as an outpost and was not prepared for defence or combat capability
- They had been prepared for rocket attacks, but not terrorist infiltration.
- The investigation team noted positively the commanders’ decisions to send their forces to fight in the nearby kibbutzim and protect the residents rather than fighting in the camp.
- Also noted positively was the performance of the female spotters and the commander who continued to provide operational reports to forces with composure, despite the many enemies in the camp. The investigation team recommended awarding citations to a number of male and female soldiers and officers.
- The devastating battle at Nahal Oz represents a systemic failure in IDF preparedness for a wide-scale ground attack under rocket fire.
- Retrospective analysis of Hamas’s invasion plans clearly shows they specifically targeted the Nahal Oz base as a key objective within its operational strategy.
- For years, Hamas gathered intelligence on the base through direct observation from Sajayia (which overlooks the site) and information collection from inside the camp via soldiers social media posts.

Enemy Plan - Nahal OZ Base attack - 7th October 2023 — Source: IDF

In the Knesset: The IDF reports are part of the internal military assessments over what went wrong, but many Israelis are continuing to demand a full-scale state commission of enquiry.

Yesterday, the opposition obtained the requisite 40 MK signatures, meaning Prime Minister Netanyahu was obliged to attend the session and to answer questions about why, after 17 months of fighting, no state commission of inquiry has been formed to look into the greatest failure in the history of the State of Israel.
Clashes erupted outside the chamber when the Knesset Guard forcibly blocked bereaved families from entering the observation gallery to watch the session.
One bereaved father, Shimon Buskila, whose son Yarden was murdered at the Nova festival, required medical attention.
It took nearly an hour for them to be permitted to enter the gallery under heavy security from the Knesset Guard.
Knesset Speaker MK Ohana (Likud) said there has been a 15-person limit to visitors observing Knesset activity from the visitors’ gallery since the start of the war because of disturbances that had broken out in the past. The families, however, said they had sent a letter to Ohana the previous day informing him that dozens of bereaved families planned to attend.
Inside the chamber, opposition MKs took turns reading statements given by families who suffered loss on October 7^th. National Unity Party Chairman MK Benny Gantz presented Netanyahu with a file containing all the families’ statements.
One of the letters was written by Yarden Bibas, released from captivity in February and whose wife Shiri and sons Ariel and Kfir were murdered in captivity by Hamas. MK Chili Tropper (National Unity Party) read the letter aloud. “Announce the establishment of a state commission of inquiry that will strengthen Israel’s security,” Bibas wrote. “So very many people have begged forgiveness; so very few politicians have begged forgiveness. I’m not interested in settling scores over the past; I want all of us to act so that things will be better here. I am asking you, Mr. Prime Minister: I haven’t been to Nir Oz. I’m asking you: let’s go together. If we don’t look the truth in the eye, we will not be able to recover.”
In response, Netanyahu lashed out at the opposition and the “deep state,” and described the demand to form a state commission of inquiry as an act of politically-motivated selective action designed to target him unfairly.
Netanyahu said, “It is important and essential to investigate in depth everything that happened to us on October 7^th and what preceded it. I insist on this. But this investigation needs to enjoy the public’s confidence or the confidence of a majority of the public. That is why we are demanding to form an objective, balanced commission of inquiry, and not a politically biased [commission] whose conclusions are a foregone conclusion.”

Looking ahead: Tomorrow, the IDF’s new Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir formally takes command of the army.

With no progress in talks to extend the ceasefire, the IDF is expected to wait another 10 days before it declares a resumption of fighting in Gaza.

March 3, 2025

Israel accepts, Hamas rejects US proposal to extend the ceasefire

What’s happened: Over the weekend US envoy Witkoff proposed to extend the ceasefire for the next 50 days to include Ramadan and Passover.

Witkoff proposed an extension of the first stage that would see half of the living and dead hostages released on the first day, with the rest released at the end if an agreement about a permanent ceasefire were to be reached.
Hamas is opposed to the proposal, whilst Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) said that if Hamas were to change its mind, Israel would immediately commence negotiations about all the details.
According to the PMO, Witkoff put forward his proposal after he received the impression that it would be impossible at the current stage to bridge the gaps between the sides to end the war, and that more time would be needed to discuss a permanent ceasefire.
The PMO statement added, “While Hamas has repeatedly violated the agreement, Israel has not been found in violation. According to the agreement, Israel could return to fighting after the 42nd day if it gains the impression that the negotiations have been ineffective. This article is supported in a side letter by the previous US administration and has also received the support of the Trump administration.”
Following Hamas’ rejection of the US offer, Israel announced that it would halt the entry of goods and supplies into Gaza.
A stabbing attack took place in Haifa this morning. Initial reports that a 70 year old man was murdered and at least four others hurt, three of them in serious condition. The terrorist was shot and killed at the scene.
On Sunday, the funeral for Shlomo Mantzur, who was murdered and kidnapped on October 7^th, was held on Kibbutz Kissufim. Speaking at the funeral, President Herzog asked for forgiveness. “Forgiveness for our failure to protect you in the very place that was meant to be your fortress. Forgiveness from you, from your family, from the members of Kissufim, and from all the residents of the western Negev—for not saving you on that bitter, terrible day.”
On Saturday, Hamas released their latest propaganda video documenting the moment when the brothers Iair and Eitan Horn said goodbye to one another shortly before Iair’s release from captivity.
Once more thousands of people attended the rally in Hostages’ Square in Tel Aviv on Saturday night.
On Sunday night thousands demonstrated outside the Prime Minister Netanyahu’s private residence on Azza Street in Jerusalem, demanding that he not derail the hostage deal.

Context: With the formal end of the first stage of the ceasefire agreement, Israel is preparing to ratchet up the pressure on Hamas to secure the release of the remaining hostages.

In the Israeli assessment, of the 59 remaining captives – now held for 514 days – 24 are alive, whilst 35 have been killed by Hamas.
The first step of the pressure campaign was to stop the transfer of aid that had formed part of Israel’s commitment in the first stage of the deal.
Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs noted, “The goods transferred to Gaza have become the number one source of income for Hamas. The goods have been exploited by Hamas for the reconstruction of its terror infrastructure, Hamas is now running a billion-dollar aid industry that is being used for terrorist purposes.”
During the 42 day ceasefire more than 25,200 trucks of goods entered Gaza, which is estimated to be enough to sustain the entire population for four months.
Israel is hoping the threat of the resumption of fighting will motivate Hamas to agree to an extension of a deal that will see more of their prisoners released in return for the remaining hostages. As part of the threat, the military has warned that a return to fighting will be more aggressive and could include a resumption of targeting killings as well as threatening to cut off supplies of water and electricity.
To compound the pressure on Hamas, Israel is hoping that the US will increase the diplomatic pressure on Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt to release all of the hostages.
Israel has also announced that it will not begin withdrawing troops from the Philadelphi Corridor, which as part of the first stage, it was due to begin on Day 42, and complete the process on Day 50.
At this point Prime Minister Netanyahu is looking to explore all possibilities to extend the deal in order to free more hostages before returning to war, even at the heavy price of continuing to release Palestinian prisoners. However he is also facing pressure from his right wing coalition partners in the Religious Zionist party to renew the fighting.
There remains some hope that the sides can reach an understanding. Hamas spokesperson Hazem Qassem said they rejected a continuation of the first stage in the “Israeli format,” which does not lead to negotiations on the second stage of the ceasefire agreement, but it would not rule out a different proposal.
Arab media has reported an Egyptian plan to extend the first stage by two weeks, during which negotiations on the second stage are to begin and Hamas will commit to releasing two groups of two living hostages and four murdered hostages each.
Meanwhile the US State Department announced the expedited delivery of $4 billion in military aid to Israel.
Ramadan began this weekend and lasts until March 29^th. Passover ends on April 19^th.

Looking ahead: Three of the recently freed hostages, Eli Sharabi, Omer Shem Tov, and Keith Siegel, will travel to Washington later today and meet President Trump tomorrow in order to underscore the importance of releasing all the remaining hostages.

At the Arab League summit in Cairo tomorrow, Egypt is expected to present its own plan for rebuilding the Gaza Strip without displacing the residents.
Witkoff is due to return to the region once more this week in an effort to reach an agreement. Israel is expected to give the diplomatic efforts one week before a decision is made to resume the fighting.

February 27, 2025

Four bodies are returned, completing first stage of hostage deal

What’s happening: The bodies of four Israeli hostages were returned from Gaza last night.

Hamas handed over the coffins to the Red Cross, which delivered them to the IDF at the Kerem Shalom crossing. There, the bodies went through preliminary identification.
Overnight, the four bodies were positively identified as those of Shlomo Mantzur, Itzik Elgarat, Ohad Yahalomi and Tsachi Idan.
In exchange, Israel is releasing over 600 Palestinian prisoners who were due to be released last weekend, but delayed by Israeli authorities following Hamas violations of the ceasefire agreement.
President Herzog reacted to the return of the four hostages’ bodies. “Together with the entire nation, we share in the immense grief and sorrow of the bereaved families and the Kibbutz communities of Nir Oz, Nahal Oz, and Kissufim. The return of our brothers’ bodies from captivity underscores our moral obligation to do everything in our power to bring back all the hostages—the living to their loving families, and the fallen to be late to rest. Until the last one is home! They are all humanitarian cases, and they must all be returned.”
Shiri Bibas and her two murdered sons Ariel and Kfir were buried yesterday in a private funeral. The three, whose bodies were returned by Hamas last week, were buried in a single coffin next to the grave of Shiri’s parents who were murdered in the October 7th massacre.
Tens of thousands lined the streets along the route of the funeral procession from central Israel to the southern village where the family were buried.
Reflecting on the public’s guard of honour Ben Caspit wrote in Maariv, “When you look at the massive number of people who lined both sides of the road as Shiri, Kfir and Ariel’s funeral procession passed by, you understand a self-evident truth—Israel is a family. And just like every family, the Israeli family isn’t easy or simple. It’s a complicated, difficult and sometimes conflicted family. It’s a somewhat aggravating, suffocating and annoying family. It’s a strange, combative, pained, stormy, squabbling, reconciling, raucous and very impolite family. But it is also a warm, embracing, excitable and moving family. A unique family. There isn’t another one like it in the world… That mutual responsibility is one of our secrets of success.”

Context: The release of the four bodies completes the first stage of the deal which has seen the overall release of 33 hostages, 25 alive plus eight bodies.

As Israel had insisted, last night was the only release carried out without any ceremony by Hamas.
Shlomo Mantzur was 85 years old when he was murdered on Kibbutz Kissufim, where he was one of the founders. It was not his first encounter with deadly Arab antisemitism. At only three years old, he survived the Farhud, the deadly pogrom in Iraq which saw at least 180 Jews murdered and thousands injured. His body had been held in Gaza since October 7th, and his death on that day was only confirmed in the past month.
Itzik Elgarat was abducted alive on October 7th.Hamas terrorists shot him in the hand while breaking into his safe room in Nir Oz. Hostages released in November 2023 reported seeing him alive though injured. Another member of his family, Alex Dancyg, was also abducted on October 7thand subsequently murdered in captivity.
Ohad Yahalomi was injured defending his house from Hamas terrorists on October 7th. As he lay bleeding, the terrorists abducted his wife and children. The motorcycle carrying his wife and daughters overturned, and they managed to escape. His twelve-year-old son was taken to Gaza and held, mostly alone, until the first ceasefire in November 2023. Ohad was kidnapped after his family and held in Gaza without receiving proper treatment for his injuries.
Tsachi Idan was also injured trying to protect his family in their safe room on Kibbutz Nahal Oz. His eldest daughter died in his arms after Hamas terrorists shot her. The terrorists commandeered the family’s house and used it as a base of operations for hours while they rampaged in the kibbutz. They filmed the family’s anguish and live-streamed it on social media, eventually taking Tsachi with them back to Gaza where he was held and died in captivity.
Also yesterday the IDF announced that it had again detected a rocket that was launched in the Gaza Strip that landed inside the enclave. According to Arab media reports, the rocket was fired from the southern Gaza Strip and landed in the northern part of the Strip. The Israeli Air Force responded by attacking Hamas targets.
Defence Minister Katz confirmed, “The IDF attacked Hamas terrorist targets in response to a failed attempt to fire at Israel.” Adding, “The message to Hamas terrorists is clear: Even during the ceasefire, we won’t allow any threat to our communities. We won’t countenance it, and we won’t hold back. We will respond forcefully to any Hamas effort to attack our citizens. We return to the situation of October 7th.”
No progress has been reported in talks regarding the second phase of the ceasefire agreement. Speculation has been rife that the first stage could be extended a few weeks to include a few more exchanges of hostages for prisoners, but nothing has been publicly agreed.

Looking ahead: Later today the IDF will release new inquiries into tactical failures at four specific sites of combat on October 7th.

59 hostages remain in captivity now 510 days. The Israeli assessment is that 35 have been killed, while 24 are thought to be alive.

February 26, 2025

Israel to release Palestinian prisoners simultaneously for four dead hostages

What’s happening: A deal has been reached for the release of 602 Palestinian detainees who were initially scheduled to be released last weekend.

Israel refused to release them on time following a series of Hamas violations of the ceasefire agreement.
- Israeli anger was especially piqued by the theatrical ‘ceremonies’ Hamas was staging for hostage releases which were viewed by Israel as humiliating and grotesque.
- The initial retiurn of an anonymous Palestinian woman, instead of the body of murdered hostage Shiri Bibas, hardened the Israeli stance even more (Shiri’s body was later repatriated).
- There was further fury at the psychological torture of filming two hostages to witnesses a release ceremony of other hostages.
The new deal will see the 602 detainees released this week in exchange for the bodies of four slain Israeli hostages. This marks the end of the first stage of the agreement.
President Herzog eulogised Oded Lifshitz at his funeral yesterday. “I stand here, on the soil of your homeland, as President of the State of Israel, on behalf of the State of Israel, I ask you—beloved Oded, I ask Yocheved and your dear family—for forgiveness. Forgiveness that the State of Israel did not protect you, your family, and your kibbutz. Forgiveness that in the face of such inhuman cruelty, you were left to stand alone. Forgiveness that we did not manage to rescue you and bring you and all your friends home safely, out of the clutches of the murderers. I ask forgiveness.”
Lifshitz’s 86-year-old wife Yocheved, herself a liberated hostage, also spoke. “Our abduction and your death have shaken me to the core. We fought all through the years for social justice, for peace. To my sorrow, we were hit by a terrible blow by those we helped on the other side. I stand here staggered to see the number of graves, and the terrible destruction of our community that was completely abandoned on October 7^th.”
The funeral of Shiri Bibas and her two children Ariel and Kfir is underway in southern Israel. The three will be buried in a private ceremony in Tzohar, a town near the family’s home in Nir Oz, the kibbutz in which they lived and from which they were abducted on October 7^th 2023.
Ofri Bibas, sister of Yarden, said earlier today: “Through the window, I see today a broken nation. We will not rise or be rehabilitated until the last of the hostages is home. Thank you all.”
The IDF released another of its operational investigations of October 7^th, this one from the massacre at Kibbutz Nahal Oz. The inquiry detailed the waves of attacks that morning and the army’s unpreparedness for fending off the attack as well as missed signals in the hours leading up to the attack that should have, but did not, lead to a higher state of alert.
Further operational inquiries are due to be released in the coming days, including of the events at the nearby Nahal Oz outpost where 53 soldiers were killed (some of which was leaked to Israeli media yesterday), as well as at Kibbutz Kfar Aza and Moshav Netiv Haasara. The inquiry into the events at the Nova festival is due later.

Context: There is no sign from either of the warring parties or the various mediators that Israel and Hamas are close to reaching an agreement on the implementation of the second phase of the ceasefire deal.

US envoy Steve Witkoff has been trying to broker an extension of the first phase of the ceasefire. Such an extension would see more exchanges of hostages for prisoners, particularly hostages who are considered to be in need of immediate medical care.
The remaining hostages are all male and under 50, and the liberation of each one of these would presumably require Israel to pay a higher “price” in the number of Palestinian prisoners released in exchange. Furthermore, it is unlikely that an extension of the first stage would cover all living hostages as Hamas could be assumed to want to hold on some in order to attain its larger political goals in the war.
If no agreement is reached to extend the first stage Israel is preparing to renew intensive fighting with the backing of the US. It is hoped that the credibility of this threat will persuade Hamas to extend the deal.
A renewed outbreak of fighting, should the ceasefire collapse, will happen in a much different global strategic environment than that which obtained when the war broke out in October 2023. The Iranian “ring of fire” which surrounded Israel in 2023 has been broken in Lebanon and Syria, (but not Yemen), while the US administration today will not set limits on Israeli firepower.
Beyond the government, other Israeli politicians have presented their own “day after” plans for Gaza. Yair Golan, leader of the left-wing Democrats, called for a moderate Palestinian force to govern Gaza while maintaining freedom of action for the IDF.
Leader of the Opposition Lapid presented a plan which called for Egypt to take responsibility for Gaza for 15 years during which Egypt’s $155 billion foreign debt would be wiped clean by the international community. Lapid explained that Israel cannot agree for Hamas to remain in power, the Palestinian Authority is incapable of administering Gaza, Israeli occupation is undesirable and a state of ongoing chaos is a grave security threat to Israel. At the same time, the Egyptian economy is on the brink of collapse and poses a threat to the stability of Egypt and the entire Middle East. Lapid said that during the 15 year period, Gaza would be rebuilt and conditions for self-government created.
Lapid suggested that the current ceasefire be completed until the release of all the hostages, Egypt take control over Gaza via a UN Security Council resolution, defined as a “guardianship,” with the goal of turning Gaza Strip over to the PA Authority following a process of reform and de-radicalisation, with measurable criteria. At the same time, a reconstruction process would begin under Egyptian supervision, while Saudi Arabia and the Abraham Accord signatories would participate in work groups and the US would invest in Gaza. He also called for Egypt to allow every resident of Gaza who wishes to leave and has where to go to do so in an regulated manner.

Looking ahead: The first phase of the ceasefire is expected to be completed tomorrow, with the release of four bodies of dead hostages. According to the agreement Israel will simultaneously release the 602 prisoners.

Of the prisoners due to be released:
- Dozens of them were serving life sentences for murdering Israelis.
- Some of them are responsible for dispatching the horrific suicide bombing attacks from the mid-1990s.
- Fifty of them are serving life sentences, and 47 of them are terrorists who were freed in the Shalit deal and were subsequently reincarcerated after they violated the terms of their release

February 24, 2025

Israel delays prisoner release following “repeated violations”

Hostages – prisoners: On Saturday Hamas released the final tranche of 6 living hostages, in the framework of the first stage of the agreement. However Israel decided to delay the release of the 620 Palestinian prisoners who were scheduled to be freed in exchange.

The Prime Minister’s Office explained that the delay was in response to Hamas’s “repeated violations” of the agreement, including “the ceremonies that humiliate our hostages and the cynical exploitation of our hostages for propaganda purposes.”
Israel announced that these Palestinian prisoners would only be released after guarantees were received that future hostage releases would proceed without humiliating ceremonies.
Israel’s decision to delay the release of Palestinian prisoners was made after Hamas belatedly turned over the body of the late Shiri Bibas, after they had initially transferred the corpse of a Palestinian woman instead.
The latest trigger for the decision was the latest Hamas propaganda film of two hostages, Guy Gilboa-Dalal and Evyatar David, who were brought to witness the release ceremony from inside a vehicle before being taken back into captivity.
On the one hand, the video was proof that the two hostages are alive, but the psychological torture angered Israeli political leaders who insisted on a response.
The Gilboa-Dalal and David families gave their consent to air the video. Guy’s father, Ilan, told Kan TV, “I saw my son for the first time in 16 months. I heard his voice for the first time. For me, that gives me a bit of air, knowing that he’s okay. He doesn’t appear to be wounded. I think it needs to be seen, to see the abuse that they’ve endured, to bring them out to see their friends they had been with for 500 days leaving, and then to take them back to the tunnels.”
The 620 Palestinian prisoners include hundreds of terrorists, dozens of whom were serving life sentences for murdering Israelis. Some of them are responsible for the horrific suicide bombing attacks from the mid-1990s. Fifty of them are serving life sentences, and 47 of them are terrorists who were freed in the Shalit deal and were subsequently rearrested and incarcerated after they violated the terms of their release.
The four hostages who were released on Saturday after more than 500 days in Gaza suffered from torture, physical violence, psychological abuse and severe starvation while in captivity. Tal Shoham, Omer Shem Tov, Omer Wenkert and Eliya Cohen were forced to drink sea water during their first months in captivity. Often they were denied food and water for several days.
The other two, Hisham a-Sayed, whom Hamas held captive for a decade, and Avera Mengistu, who was held in captivity for nearly ten years, both suffer from mental illnesses.

Negotiations: Minister Dermer is in the US meeting with senior officials to try and formulate an agreement to extend the ceasefire and ensure the release of more hostages.

The White House supports the Israeli decision to delay the release of the prisoners because of what it referred to as Hamas’s barbaric treatment of the hostages and the humiliating parade of the Bibas family’s coffins. US National Security Council Spokesman Brian Hughes said the delay was an appropriate response adding that President Trump would support whatever course of action Israel chooses regarding Hamas.
In response Hamas has declared that it would not hold negotiations with Israel until the prisoners were released.
There is heightened concern over the fate of the final phase of the first stage of the deal, which is meant to secure the release of four bodies of hostages killed in captivity, and is due to take place later this week.
The second stage is considered significantly more difficult as it is mean to include a permanent ceasefire and Hamas forced to relinquish its governance over Gaza and their leadership exiled abroad.
With all these conditions potentially unbridgeable at present, Israel is preparing for the possibility of having the first stage of the deal extended.
Negotiations over an extension will focus on how many terrorists will be released in exchange for the next hostages and an increase of goods entering Gaza. Hamas categorises the remaining hostages as young men of military age and will seek a higher ratio of prisoners for their release.
This option of an extension could be favourable ahead of Ramadan, which will start next week. It’s a period in which even Hamas will have no desire to resume the fighting.

Looking ahead: President Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, is expected to return to Israel on Wednesday in an effort to extend the first stage of the agreement with Hamas and to secure the release of more hostages.

Sixty-three hostages remain in Gaza, living and dead.
Witkoff is expected to continue his consultations in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
The funeral for Shiri Bibas and her two young sons will also take place on Wednesday at a cemetery in southern Israel.

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