What’s happened: There is cautious optimism over the potential for a hostage/ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, with both sides seemingly closer to a mutually agreeable arrangement than at any point since the last deal was reached in November 2023. However, despite progress, significant gaps remain.

• The optimism began on Friday, when Mossad Director Barnea returned from a meeting in Qatar with Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani with news of Hamas’s response to the current terms.
• The current proposal aligns with the broad outline of what has become known as the ‘Biden Plan’, despite it originating from Israeli officials. The plan would result in a three-stage process:
  • In stage one, a “full and complete” six-week ceasefire would be in effect, during which 18-31 women, elderly, and wounded from among the hostages would be released. The IDF would continue to withdraw from populated areas of Gaza and allow for the return of (some) displaced northern Gazans to their areas of residence.
  • After 16 days of stage one, negotiations would take place for stage two, during which remaining male hostages would be released. Israel, for its part would release Palestinian security prisoners currently held in Israeli jails.
  • In stage three, any remaining hostages would be released, including the bodies of those who have already died. A process of reconstruction would begin in Gaza.
• Netanyahu last night released a list of Israeli non-negotiable demands, sparking anger both in Israel and amongst negotiators from mediating countries. Netanyahu’s four points were:
  • “Any deal will allow Israel to resume fighting until all of objectives of the war have been achieved.”
  • “There will be no smuggling of weapons to Hamas from Egypt to the Gaza border.”
  • “There will be no return of thousands of armed terrorists to the northern Gaza Strip.”
  • “Israel will maximize the number of living hostages who will be released from Hamas captivity.”
• Opposition leader Lapid said, “I have one response to the announcement from the Prime Minister’s Office: What is it good for? We are at a critical moment in the negotiations, the lives of the hostages depend on it; why issue such provocative messages? How does it contribute to the process?”
• The government’s far-right elements responded angrily to talk of a deal, though Benny Gantz, whose National Unity faction recently left the government, swiftly offered Netanyahu a parliamentary safety net in the event a “responsible proposal” is reached.
• Tens of thousands of Israelis yesterday joined in a ‘Day of Disruption’, in a bid to compel the government to successfully conclude a deal. In echoes of last year’s protests against the government’s judicial reforms, around 150 prominent high-tech companies announced they had given permission for employees to miss work to join the demonstrations.
• Thousands marched on the prime minister’s residence in Jerusalem. Demonstrators also blocked multiple highways, and protested outside the homes of government personnel, including Defence Minister Gallant, Foreign Minister Katz, and Knesset Speaker Ohana.
• In a striking display of protest, Einav Zangauker, the mother of hostage Matan, suspended herself in a cage hanging from a Tel Aviv bridge.
• “There is a deal on the table that can save lives, and all of us,” she said. “I want Matan at home, I want all the hostages at home now… I want to tell Netanyahu: The keys to this cage and all the other cages are in your hands. For nine months, you have abandoned the hostages. Netanyahu — stop dragging your feet. We want them at home and it’s up to you to bring them home.”

Context: Israel has now marked nine months since the October 7th massacre.

• 251 people were kidnapped that day, whilst 116 remain in captivity of them 102 men, 16 women, 2 children. In addition to the 116 remaining, four other hostages are also in Gaza: two bodies, and two living hostages from three separate incidents in 2014. Israel will seek to have the two living hostages, Hisham al-Sayed and Avera Mengistu, included in the phase one release.
• According to Israel at least 43 of the abductees are no longer alive and their bodies are being held by Hamas.
• So far, 135 abductees have been released, of whom 108 are Israelis and 24 are foreign nationals. Seven hostages were rescued, and 16 murdered hostages have been located by IDF forces and their bodies returned to Israel. Three abductees were mistakenly shot by IDF forces; their bodies were returned to Israel.
• Due to the animosity and lack of trust there remain numerous points for clarification. At its core for Israel will be what provisions will be in place if Hamas abrogate the agreement – that will justify them renewing the fighting.  For Hamas the opposite, if they do the deal, what guarantees that Israel won’t kill Sinwar as soon as he steps out of a tunnel.
• Further obstacles include:
  • The explicitness – or, conversely, the vagueness – by which a permanent end to the fighting in Gaza is provided for. Hamas seems to have moved some way from insisting it be explicitly provided for in the terms of an agreement, to accepting that it will be dealt with in negotiations during the phases. Israel, however, will seek to insist that it be able to respond militarily to any Hamas violation of the terms of the ceasefire.
  • The number of Palestinian prisoners to be released, and the identity of them. Israel is concerned about releasing murderous terrorists, some of whom will not be allowed to return to the West Bank. There is speculation that the deal could include high-profile prisoners like Marwan Barghouti, and over whether Israel will have a veto on releasing specific prisoners.
  • Whether the Israeli withdrawal from populated areas in Gaza would include its presence in the Netzarim Corridor, considered vital to thwarting the reorganisation of Hamas as a fighting force, and the Philadelphia Corridor, which effects their ability to rearm.
  • How will Israel balance allowing displaced northern Gazans to return to their former areas of residence with preventing terrorists from moving north?
  • The status of the buffer zone between Israel and Gaza, and the right of Gazans to access it.
  • Whether a provisional ceasefire in the first phase includes Israel ceasing its intelligence flights over Gaza.
• There is further speculation that if a deal is reached with Hamas in the south, it will also be honoured by Hezbollah in the north.

Looking ahead: It is thought that the negotiations will last around three weeks, with difficulties remaining in communications between Hamas leader in Gaza Sinwar, the foreign leadership, and the negotiating teams.

• Mossad director Barnea is scheduled to meet on Wednesday in Qatar with the Qatari prime minister, CIA director Burns, and the director of Egyptian intelligence.

What’s happened: Israeli Defence Minister Gallant has authorised providing Israeli electricity to Gaza’s water desalination plant. Without this plant being operational, there is a danger that the lack of safe drinking water will provoke a further humanitarian crisis in the Strip.

• Reports suggest that two weeks ago, Gallant gave the green light to the Israel Electric Corporation to do this via COGAT. The desalination plant is operated by the UN and the Palestinian Water Ministry, which is ostensibly separate from Hamas.
• Meanwhile, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi spoke yesterday on the progress made in Rafah. Of Hamas’s Rafah brigade, he said: “We are counting what we saw with our eyes: 900 killed, among them commanders. And the reason that we are still here, week after week, is because of the effort to destroy the infrastructure. We are exhausting the other side and we are completing our tasks. There is a lot of will, there is a lot patience and persistence, and the results will speak for themselves.”
• IDF operations in the Strip continue, especially in the areas of Shejaiya, Rafah, and central Gaza. The IDF reports that “in the area of Shejaiya, IDF troops eliminated terrorists, located weapons, and dismantled terror infrastructure sites. Over the past day, the IAF struck and dismantled over 50 terror infrastructure sites. Moreover, during targeted raids, IDF troops located operational tunnel shafts and weaponry, including AK-47 rifles, grenades, magazines, and additional military equipment.”
• “Furthermore, IDF troops continue operational activities in central Gaza, where terrorists who posed a threat to IDF troops were eliminated in IAF strikes.”
• “The IDF is continuing a targeted, intelligence-based operational activity in the Rafah area. In cooperation with IDF ground troops, the IAF dismantled several terror infrastructure sites and eliminated terrorists in the area.”
• The IDF yesterday announced that two soldiers had died fighting in the Strip on Monday. Master Sgt. (res.) Nadav Elchanan Knoller, 30, and Maj. (res.) Eyal Avnion, 25, were killed during operations in central Gaza, The two deaths bring the total number of IDF casualties since October 7^th to 674. Of these, 320 have been killed since the beginning of the ground operation in Gaza.
• Yesterday the IDF targeted over 30 sites in the Strip, with fighter jets, attack helicopters, and drones supporting ground forces.
• Overnight Monday, the IDF also targeted a series of airstrikes on Khan Yunis, having first instructed the civilian population to move to humanitarian zones. The strikes targeted areas from which Palestinian Islamic Jihad fired a barrage of 20 rockets at Israel on Monday.

Context: The IDF continues to move away from the high intensity phases of fighting in Gaza, and towards the war’s Phase Three.

• As it does so, it is looking to learn from previous experiences in both Gaza and Lebanon, where permanent troop presences have given Israel’s enemies the opportunity to surprise its forces.
• Instead, this phase will see the IDF withdraw from most civilian areas, and focus on targeted, intelligence-based raids against senior Hamas commanders, terror cells planning imminent attacks, and any cells looking to reconstitute Hamas’s fighting force.
• While withdrawing from most areas, the IDF will look to hold the Netzarim and Philadelphi corridors, and to stabilise the Israel-Gaza border. The Netzarim corridor essentially bisects the Strip, from Kibbutz Beeri to the Mediterranean Sea. The control of the Netzarim ensures the IDF’s medium-term control of the Strip, prevents Hamas from redeploying in the north, and incentivises Hamas to agree to a hostage deal with the return of northern Gazans to their home areas a feature.
• However, leaving troops in this corridor potentially exposes them to attacks from both northern and southern Gaza.
• Despite the IDF’s many operational achievements in Gaza, it acknowledges that Hamas retains the ability to fight but stresses that it now does so as a guerilla force rather than through organised military brigades.
• The IDF also estimated this week that around 1.9 million of the Gaza Strip’s 2.5 million population were currently residing in designated humanitarian zones.
• With talks over a hostage deal currently stuck, there is hope that the move to Phase Three of the war might satisfy Hamas’s demand that any hostage release accompany and ‘end’ to the war. While insisting that Phase Three does not signal the end of the war, there is some hope that Hamas might concede that the end of high-intensity fighting satisfies its conditions.
• In parallel, there remains high concern over the prospect of war with Hezbollah in the north, though there is hope that if a hostage and ceasefire arrangement is reached in the south, it could also be honoured in the north as well, preventing a wider conflagration.
• Reports from the US this week alleged that the military establishment is prepared to call a full ceasefire if doing so would result in the successful release of the hostages, but that Prime Minister Netanyahu is opposed.
• Referring to the sources who spoke to the New York Times, Netanyahu said “I don’t know who those unnamed parties are, but I’m here to make it unequivocally clear: it won’t happen… We will end the war only after we have achieved all of its goals, including the elimination of Hamas and the release of all our hostages.”
• The IDF also responded, saying it would “continue fighting Hamas across the Gaza Strip,” “alongside continuing to improve our readiness for a war in the north, and defending all of our borders.”
• COGAT reported 303 trucks carrying humanitarian goods were transferred to Gaza yesterday, 264 through the Kerem Shalom Crossing and 39 via the Erez Crossing.

Looking ahead: The army is preparing to place underground sensors along the border with Egypt, to prevent Hamas and other groups from re-digging smuggling tunnels which the IDF has destroyed.

• Israel is also looking to upgrade the Rafah crossing, through which the bulk of Hamas’s arms smuggling has taken place in recent years.
• Netanyahu is still expected to travel to the US to address both Houses of Congress at the end of the month, when he is now also expected to meet with President Biden.

The north: Yesterday and today northern Israel has come under heavy attack from Hezbollah. Unconfirmed reports suggest that over 200 missiles and UAVs have been been launched so far.

• The escalation follows the IDF yesterday killing Muhammad Neamah Naser, commander of Hezbollah’s Aziz Unit which is responsible for firing from southwestern Lebanon at Israeli territory.
• In response, Hezbollah fired over 100 rockets towards the Nefah base headquarters of the Golan Division yesterday afternoon. Other rockets were fired at the headquarters of the 769th Brigade in Kiryat Shmona, the Kela base, and the Zerait outpost.
• Sirens sounded in northern Israel, as some of the rockets were intercepted, some fell in the Kiryat Shmona area, and the majority fell in open areas. No injuries were reported, though fire fighters had to extinguish a number of blazed caused by falling rockets.
• Overnight, IDF fighter jets struck Hezbollah terror targets in southern Lebanon, including a military structure in the area of Chihine and three terrorist infrastructure sites in the area of Blat. In addition, IDF soldiers fired in order to remove a threat in the area of Chebaa in southern Lebanon.
• Yesterday also saw an off-duty Israeli soldier killed in a stabbing attack at a shopping mall in the northern city of Karmiel. Sgt. Aleksandr Iakiminskyi managed to kill the assailant, later named as Jawwad Omar Rubia, an Israeli citizen from the nearby Arab town of Nahf, before collapsing and later succumbing to his injuries. A second soldier was injured in the attack.

Palestinian arena: Two IDF soldiers were killed fighting in Gaza yesterday. In separate incidents, Cpt. Elay Elisha Lugasi, 21, a team commander in the 7th Armored Brigade’s 75th Battalion, was killed fighting in Shejaiya and Cpt. Roy Miller, 21, a platoon commander in the Givati Brigade’s Rotem Battalion. Other troops were injured in both attacks.

• An anti-aircraft missile launched from the Gaza Strip struck a home in the evacuated southern Israeli community of Kfar Maimon yesterday. Damage was caused but no injuries were reported.
• The IDF said it had carried out airstrikes in Rafah, as well as drone strikes in the Netzarim Corridor, killing several Hamas operatives.
• In Shejaiya, the IDF said it had “destroyed tunnels routes in the area and eliminated dozens of terrorists in close-quarters combat, with tank fire, and in aerial strikes. In one incident, IDF troops eliminated seven terrorists at close quarters.”
• Meanwhile, the Mossad released a brief statement yesterday confirming that Israel was studying Hamas’s latest response to hostage release/ceasefire proposals. The terms of the proposal remain those outlined by President Biden in May – a three-stage process leading to the release of all hostages. Hamas has continued to insist that proposals do not explicitly enough provide for the end of the war in Gaza.
• Elsewhere, on the Palestinian front the IDF announced yesterday that on Tuesday it carried out a strike on four terror operatives who were a significant part of terrorist infrastructure in Nur Shams. Muhammad Shehade, Muhammad Kanouah, Yazid Shafa, and Namer Ibrahim were killed after being identified attempting to plant explosives designed to attack IDF soldiers operating in the area.
• In the West Bank, Israeli Civil Administration officers and security forces yesterday dismantled an illegal Jewish settlement that had recently been constructed on Oz Zion Hill, in the area of Giv’at Asaf. Troops came under attack from masked Israelis who smashed the windows of an IDF truck and hurled explosives.
• IDF Chief of Staff Halevi called it “a severe, violent incident, that must be denounced and condemned. The law must be quickly and swiftly exacted upon the rioters who attacked the security forces as they attempted to carry out their mission”.

Context: Incidents across the last few days indicate a further ratcheting up of tensions in Israel’s north, where Hezbollah continues to insist that its operations against Israel are tied to the continuation of fighting in Gaza. On Tuesday, Hezbollah deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qassem insisted that “If there is a ceasefire in Gaza, we will stop without any discussion.”

• There is therefore hope that if a successful deal is reached between Israel and Hamas, quiet might return to the northern front, a diplomatic resolution to Hezbollah’s border claims implemented, and the nearly 80,000 Israelis displaced from homes in the north allowed to return.
• The failure to secure a deal with Hamas for far, however, is leading to splits between Prime Minister Netanyahu and the military and security establishments. The latter see securing a deal as the best way to prevent a destructive war with Hezbollah, and responded angrily to Netanyahu’s statement yesterday that was strongly critical of Hamas’s latest response to the existing proposal.
• So far, this latest heavy barrage from Lebanon has not caused any injuries. Most rockets have either been intercepted or landed in open areas. However, such large numbers of rockets fired – including directed at populated towns like Naharya – run the risk of causing significant casualties which in turn lead to a further escalation.
• Lebanese sources say that Naser, who joined Hezbollah in 1986, survived several previous assassination attempts by Israel, and that he was associated with the Hezbollah trend of launching missiles which photographed the target, thus producing videos to be used as Hezbollah propaganda.
• According to the IDF, “Naser entered his position in 2016 and led the firing of rockets and anti-tank missiles from southwestern Lebanon toward Israeli civilians, communities, and security forces. Furthermore, Naser directed a large number of terror attacks toward Israel both during and before the war, and he previously held several central roles within the Hezbollah terrorist organisation.”
• “Naser was the counterpart of Sami Taleb Abdullah, the commander of the Nasser Unit, who was eliminated last month. Together, they served as two of the most significant Hezbollah terrorists in southern Lebanon.”
• Hezbollah announced his death by referring to him as a ‘shahid commander’, an honorific reserved for senior commanders.
• According to Hezbollah – which unlike Hamas provides the numbers of its operatives killed – 362 of its fighters have now died since it joined Hamas in attacking Israel on October 8th.
• The organisation is also coming under increasing domestic criticism in Lebanon for inflaming tensions with Israel, sacrificing the country’s own needs to those of Iran, and risking the country’s security.

Looking ahead: The government is coming under increasing pressure from families in the north for the situation to be resolved by the start of the school year on September 1st.

• However, military officials have expressed concern over setting such civilians deadlines influencing military considerations.
• Operations in Rafah are still expected to conclude within two to four weeks, after which there is hope that a hostage deal might be secured.

Day after in Gaza: Israeli media sources report this morning that Prime Minister Netanyahu is relaxing his opposition to the Palestinian Authority (PA) playing a role in the post-war governance of the Gaza Strip.

• While Netanyahu publicly continues to rule out swapping ‘Hamastan’ for ‘Fatahstan’, in private he is thought to be more open to a role for the PA, or at least for figures closely associated with it. The PA retains on its payroll in Gaza those who managed civilian affairs in the Strip prior to Hamas’s takeover in 2007: it is likely these individuals that Netanyahu has in mind for assuming civilian administration.
• Since early in the war, the US has pressed Israel to accept and cooperate with a “reformed” PA assuming control in Gaza. It has never been entirely clear the extent to which these reforms will address Israel’s concerns over the government led by President Abbas, which include: anti-Israel incitement; the encouraging of acts of terror by ‘pay for slay’; the corruption, inefficiency, and lack of a popular mandate seemingly inherent to an organisation which has not held popular elections in 19 years.
• The Financial Times reported yesterday that Israel is planning to begin a pilot programme in which humanitarian ‘bubble zones’ are implemented in the two northern Gazan cities of Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahia. The plan would see Israel initially maintain security control of the areas, while the US trains a Palestinian security force, likely made up of PA personnel, who could later assume security control.

West Bank: The IDF last night announced the death of Sergeant First Class (Res.) Yehuda Geto, killed in an operation in the West Bank.

• Geto died when his vehicle was hit by an improvised explosive device (IED) in the Nor a-Sham refugee camp, near Tulkarem. Another soldier was seriously injured.
• In the same operation, an Israeli UAV targeted a terrorist fell without exploding. Some locals then approached it and it exploded, killing a woman and injuring several others.
• The IDF had been in the area specifically trying to combat the use of IEDs in West Bank refugee camps. The IDF and Shin Bet have lately been working to address their proliferation, caused in part by there being a lengthy period of time when troops refrained from entering the camps, allowing local groups time and space to amass weapons.
• Geto’s death follows that of Cpt. Alon Sacgiu, 22 last week, also killed by an IED in the West Bank city of Jenin’s refugee camp. 16 soldiers were also wounded.
• Tulkarem and Nor a-Shams in particular has been the focus of IDF operations largely due to its close proximity to the security barrier and the fear of terrorists infiltrating into nearly Israeli communities.
• The move to relax opposition to the PA’s involvement in Gaza comes in parallel to the Israeli government announcing further sanctions against it, along with provocative recognition of outposts.
• Last week, the security cabinet approved a plan by Finance Minister Smotrich to legalise five previously unsanctioned settlement outposts in the West Bank: Evyatar, Sde Efraim and Givat Asaf in the central West Bank, and Heletz and Adorayim in the south of the territory.
• Smotrich also announced a package of sanctions targeting PA officials, including cancelling exit visas and implementing restrictions on their movement and the transfer of responsibility from the PA to Israel in a West Bank nature reserve.
• Smotrich said that the punitive moves were in response to Ramallah’s support for actions against Israel at the ICJ and ICC, and for Norway, Spain, and Ireland’s recognition of a Palestinian state.
• However, it has been reported that Prime Minister Netanyahu sees the role of the PA differently. According to Channel 12 News, Netanyahu recently acknowledged, “We cannot ignore the activities and actions of the PA; they have significant benefits for Israel,” adding, “The collapse of the Palestinian Authority is not in Israel’s interest at this time. There is a need to promote actions that stabilise the Authority to prevent escalation in the area.”
• With the PA coming close to financial collapse after Smotrich started withholding the tax revenues Israel collects on its behalf in April, he has also reportedly agreed to release some of these funds, and to allow Israeli banks to resume cooperation with those in the West Bank.
• Smotrich’s punitive policies reflect a desire to implement an irreversible status quo in the West Bank, which would survive a change of government. He seeks not only an extension of the areas under Israeli control and an expansion of settlements, but the erosion of the PA itself. In this, he and his far-right colleagues in government are opposed both by the administration’s pragmatists and the military and security establishments, all of whom recognise the value to Israel of a functioning PA.
• Yesterday, 55 Palestinian security prisoners were released from Israeli jails, including Mohammad Abu Salmiya, the director of Gaza City’s Shifa hospital arrested in November on suspicion of having allowed Hamas to use the hospital as an operations centre.
• The decision was made by the Shin Bet, which says that Israel’s over-crowded jails cannot continue to hold dangerous security prisoners from the West Bank and all those arrested in Gaza since the beginning of the war.
• Several senior politicians have criticised the decision to release Abu Salmiya, including the prime minister who said, “The release of the director of Shifa Hospital is a grave mistake and a moral failure,” he said. “The place of this man, under whose responsibility our abductees were murdered and held, is in prison.”
• In parallel to operations in Gaza, the IDF has been regularly conducting counter-terror operations in the West Bank. In the last nine months, the IDF have arrested over 4,000 terror suspects and killed over 550.
• Data from the Shin Bet shows there have been over 3,580 terror attacks perpetrated in the same period. These range from stoning cars to shootings, stabbings and car rammings. In total 23 Israeli have been killed.
• According to the latest polling among Palestinians, satisfaction with PA President Abbas’ performance stands at 12% and dissatisfaction with 85%. About 90% want the president to resign.
• When asked who the public would prefer to control the Gaza Strip after the war, 61% (71% in the West Bank and 46% in the Gaza Strip) said it was Hamas, 16% chose a new Palestinian Authority with an elected president, parliament and government, 6% chose the current PA without Abbas, 6% also chose the return of the PA but under Abbas’ control, 2% chose the UN, 1% selected one or more Arab states, and 1% selected the Israeli army.
• Regarding satisfaction with Hamas, there was an increases to 75% (82% in the West Bank and 64% in the Gaza Strip). While Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, thought to be the architect of the October 7^th massacre received 65% support, (76% in the West Bank and 50% in the Gaza Strip).

Looking ahead: Although too soon to declare an end to the ground incursion in Gaza, over the next month the IDF are transitioning into the next less intense stage of the campaign.

• Operations in the West Bank are likely to continue, particularly in the areas that have been forsaken by the PA.

The South: Sirens sounded in Israeli communities near the Gaza Strip this morning, as approximately 20 projectiles were launched from the Khan Yunis area. Some were intercepted while some fell inside southern Israel, with no injuries reported. IDF returned artillery fire to the source.

• Fighting continues in Rafah, where IDF troops discovered “significant tunnel shafts… that led to a tunnel network.” The discovered tunnel is said to be 500 metres long and passes near an UNRWA school. In further searches of the area, troops found nine rocket launchers.
• Fighting also continues in the central Strip, and in the northern Gaza City’s Shejaiya neighbourhood, where troops killed dozens of Hamas fighters in close-quarters combat and with aerial fire support.
• According to the IDF, “as part of operational searches of civilian structures converted into terrorist infrastructure, the soldiers raided a UN school that the terrorists of the Shejaiya Battalion were using as a hideout and a warehouse. The troops discovered dozens of weapons, grenades, and valuable intelligence documents.”
• “Additionally, the soldiers located a terrorist war room in a medical clinic containing communications devices, enemy documents, and observation devices. This is further evidence of Hamas embedding itself in civilian structures for terror purposes.”
• On Saturday, the IDF announced that two soldiers had fallen in battle in Gaza. Staff Sergeant Yair Avitan, 20, from Ra’anana, a soldier from the 890th Battalion of the Paratroopers Brigade, Sergeant First Class (Res.) Yakir Shmuel Tatelbaum, 21, from Ma’ale Adumim, a soldier from the 77th Battalion of the 7th Brigade, both died fighting in northern Gaza.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant yesterday held a situation assessment with the heads of the security establishment, in anticipation of the coming completion of the operation in Rafah.
• Gallant said: “We will continue and will intensify until we reach a situation in which we strangle Hamas’s oxygen pipeline and don’t let them rebuild their forces.”
• Israeli media said that the security chiefs reiterated their demand for political approval for plans for the ‘day after’ in Gaza.

The north: Twenty-one Israeli soldiers were wounded yesterday in a Hezbollah drone attack near Merom Golan. One soldier sustained serious injuries and the others are listed as being in either moderate or light condition.

• Golan Regional Council Chairman Uri Kellner said: “I want to make it clear to the decision-makers in the State of Israel, both the military and the civilian. We do not accept this equation of every time that the IDF attacks deep inside Lebanon, Hezbollah’s response is here in the Golan. We have to break this equation, we have to provide security and protect us, the residents of the Golan.”
• Overnight, the Israeli Air Force struck Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, including in the Kfarkela, Houla, El Biyada and Rab El Thalathine areas. IDF artillery also struck to remove a threat in Al-Dahira.
• On Friday night, three hostile UAVs were identified crossing from Lebanon into northern Israel and fell in the Western Galilee area. No injures were reported. 25 launches were also reported crossing from southern Lebanon into the western Galilee and Galilee panhandle areas. No injuries were reported, though damage was caused to a building and firefighters had to extinguish multiple blazes caused by the launches.

Context: The 20 rockets fired this morning is the first time in several months that Hamas has been able to launch so large a battery of rockets at Israel.  Overall, Hamas has fired almost 20,000 rockets at Israel in the last nine months.

• Through a combination of Hamas having fired rockets and the IDF having destroyed them in many places, the IDF assessment is that Hamas has only around 10 percent of its pre-war rocket capacity left.
• Unlike Hezbollah in the north, Hamas is not able to be re-supplied by its Iranian patron. Reports today suggest that Iran has accelerated its arms smuggling operation to Hezbollah in recent weeks. The latest shipments are thought to be focussing on anti-aircraft systems, as well as more sophisticated anti-tank missiles.
• In parallel, Iran continues to threaten Israel, its UN mission last week pledging an “obliterating war” if Israel attacked Lebanon.
• The fighting in Rafah is drawing to a close, the IDF is soon expected to announce an end to the eight-month ground operation and move to the third phase of the war.
• Overall, the IDF is thought to have killed or injured over 1000 Hamas terrorists in Rafah, out of the 3,000 that were deployed prior the incursion.
• The rest have fled north along with the general population, though some are likely to be hiding in the underground tunnels.
• The anticipated announcement will declare an end to this phase, allowing the IDF to withdraw most of its troops.
• However, the war against Hamas is expected to continue, just in a different form. The fighting is expected to resemble the targeted, intelligence-led, precision operations focusing on senior Hamas figures and on Hamas’s attempts to reconstitute its fighting force, as we have seen in northern Gaza.
• As Israel transitions towards Phase Three, the IDF will redeploy out of the Palestinian population centres, remaining in the corridor that bisects the Strip in the central Netzarim area, and the Philadelphi Corridor along the Egyptian border.
• Control of the Philadelphi Corridor is crucial to ensuring that Hamas cannot smuggle in more weapons and rearm.
• The IDF are expected to continue to dismantle and decommission the tunnels under the Gaza-Egypt border, but will need to do so carefully and cautiously as many have been booby-trapped with heavy explosives.
• The latest IDF fatalities takes the overall total to 670 IDF soldiers killed since October 7^th, of which 316 fell in the Gaza Strip since the beginning of the ground operation.
• 120 hostages remain in Hamas captivity, now for 268 days. According to the latest Israeli assessment, at least 43 are no longer alive.
• There are currently no negotiations taking place, though reports suggest Qatar is finally placing pressure on Hamas to soften its stance.
• The end of the ground incursion could be a window of opportunity to renew talks.

Looking ahead: The security cabinet is expected to reconvene later this week, following which the prime minister could announce an end to the ground incursion in Gaza.

• By withdrawing troops in the south, some could be deployed to the north ahead of a potential operation against Hezbollah’s presence in southern Lebanon

Northern front: The IDF has completed a large scale training exercise close to the northern border.

• It said that troops simulated several, “extreme scenarios, combat in complex and mountainous terrain, activating fire, and urban warfare, as part of increasing readiness in the northern arena.”
• Prime Minister Netanyahu oversaw part of the training, saying afterwards, “the brigade-level exercise is very impressive in terms of capabilities, mobilisation and implementation. The implementation is very considerable, with soldiers and commanders from all parts of the country and all parts of Israeli society. They are determined and devoted to the mission – to defend the country and achieve victory, nothing less.”
• IDF Chief of Staff Halevi also oversaw the manoeuvres, accompanied by several senior commanders.
• In parallel, President Herzog completed a two day tour of the north, focused primarily on civil society.
• At the conclusion of his visit, the president met with the heads of the local councils in the frontline communities and said: ““I remind all of Israel that the displaced, the evacuees, and all those who endure the fires and the flames are Jews, Muslims, Druze, and Christians alike. We are aware that all aspects of life here are challenged, and we are united in this battle.”
• He added, “I reiterate what I have said before – the international community cannot act surprised if the situation spirals out of control, as the international community has almost done nothing to contribute to the full security of the residents of Israel, despite repeated violations of treaties and international agreements from Lebanon by Hezbollah.”
• Amid concerns about imminent war, dozens of countries have revised their travel advisories regarding Israel and Lebanon and have called on their citizens to leave both countries immediately and to refrain from traveling to the region.
• After a relatively quiet morning, yesterday afternoon sirens were heard in several northern communities.
• On the Lebanese side, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) struck Hezbollah infrastructure in the areas of Shuba, Aita ash-Shab and Khiam.
• Later in the afternoon, four anti-tank missiles were fired at the northern Israeli town of Metulla, damaging a residential building, but no injuries were reported.
• On Wednesday evening, Syrian sources reported that the IAF launched an attack on several targets on the outskirts of Damascus.  According to the UK based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, at least three people were killed and 11 injured. The target was apparently a command centre of a Hezbollah-affiliated Iranian militia.
• Syrian regime sources said the targets were owned by the Iranian Jihad Habniya organisation, which focuses on rebuilding Damascus suburbs damaged during the Syrian civil war..

Context: Israel’s preference is to reach a diplomatic set of understandings with Hezbollah that would allow for the residents of northern Israel to return to their homes after more than eight months of being internally displaced.

• The hope is that US mediation and pressure can lead to Hezbollah removing its forces away from the border and ending their ariel attacks. However, the risk of an extended conflagration is high.
• Since October 8th, there have been over 4,700 missiles fired towards northern Israel from Lebanon and Syria. 29 Israelis (both civilians and soldiers) have been killed in the north in that time.
• On the ground, this last week has actually seen a small decrease in Hezbollah attacks, with an average of around 6 attacks each day. This is similar to rate from earlier this year and lower compared to the figures during most of May and June.
• The Lebanese front was high on the agenda during Defence Minister Gallant’s meetings in Washington this week. He met with several senior US administration officials, including Secretary of State Blinken, Secretary of Defence Austin, National Security Adviser Sullivan and Special Envoy Hochstein.
• As Israel hopes for a diplomatic solution, Israeli officials are keen to rebuild their deterrence against Hezbollah, hence the increase in troop deployment and training. A third component of the deterrence is to ensure they receive the necessary arms shipments from the US.
• Minister Gallant related to this following his meeting with National Security Advisor Sullivan, saying, “it is moving to see the great support we receive from the US government and the American public. During the meetings we made significant progress, obstacles were removed and bottlenecks were addressed, in order to advance a variety of issues, and more specifically the topic of force build-up and munition supply that we must bring to the State of Israel.”
• As fighting eases in the south, the IDF is able to redeploy troops to the north. This is also part of the IDF’s transition to the third stage of the fighting in the Gaza Strip, as they are expected to redeploy out of population centres into an eastern buffer zone.
• If a hostage deal can be reached with Hamas it is hoped that, just like the temporary pause in November, Hezbollah will also cease its attacks, allowing diplomatic efforts a chance to bear fruit.

Looking ahead: The IDF is expected to continue their training and preparations, but no date for an operation has been set.

• President Herzog appealed to government authorities to do more to assist the residents of the north. He said, “I call on the tax authorities and all the bodies involved in supporting small and medium businesses, and industrial enterprises to act much faster. We see small businesses collapsing because no one is giving them attention.”
• He continued: “If we want people to stay and not evacuate, we need to provide them with a strong home front, and the central government must assist all those working hard, risking their lives, operating emergency response teams, schools, and much more, while dealing with the emotional and psychological challenges as summer approaches and the school year begins.

What’s happened: Israeli Defence Minister Gallant held several meetings with US officials in Washington yesterday, including with Secretary of Defence Austin, Secretary of State Blinken, Special Envoy Hochstein and CIA Director Burns.

• In his meeting with Blinken, said Gallant discussed the transition to ‘Phase C’ in Gaza and its impact on the region, including on Lebanon and other areas.
• “The meetings we are holding are extremely important and impactful on the future of the war in Gaza and our ability to achieve the goals of the war, on developments on the northern border, and other areas.”
• With Burns, Gallant discussed the question of a hostage deal, saying “I have been dealing with this issue since the first day [of the war] and I would like to emphasise that it is Israel’s primary commitment to return the hostages, with no exception, to their families and homes. We will continue to make every possible effort to bring them home.”
• On this issue, having appeared to rule out the so-called Biden hostage deal proposal during a Channel 14 interview over the weekend, in a speech to the Knesset yesterday Prime Minister Netanyahu appeared to row back slightly.
• Netanyahu made three pledges:
  • “First, we will not end the war until we return all of our hostages – 120 hostages, the living and the deceased. We are committed to the Israeli proposal, which President Biden has welcomed. Our position has not changed.”
  • “Second, which does not contradict the first, we will not end the war until we eliminate Hamas and until we return the residents of the south and the north securely to their homes.”
  • “And third – at any price and in any way, we will thwart Iran’s intentions to destroy us.”
• Gallant made reference to recent tensions between Israel and the US, saying “the alliance between Israel and the United States, led by the US over many years, is extremely important. Other than the IDF, our ties with the US are the most important element for our future from a security perspective. We are discussing a variety of issues. In areas where we have disagreements, we discuss everything in detail and reach agreements and solve issues. And I am sure this will be true this time as well.”
• Gallant’s office said he told Blinken that “the eyes of both our enemies and our friends are on the relationship between the US and Israel. We must resolve the differences between us quickly and stand together – this is how we will achieve our goals and weaken our enemies.”
• Elsewhere, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi yesterday conducted a situational assessment in the Rafah area of the Gaza Strip with other senior IDF officers. “We are clearly approaching the point where we can say we have dismantled the Rafah Brigade,” Halevi said, “that it is defeated not in the sense that there are no more terrorists, but in the sense that it can no longer function as a fighting unit. It has suffered many casualties, and you will ensure until the completion of the mission here, to eliminate as many terrorists and destroy as much terrorist infrastructure as possible going forward.”
• In Gaza, overnight the IDF struck Hamas operatives inside two structures in Shati and Daraj Tuffah in the northern Strip. The IDF said that “The terrorists operated inside school compounds that were used by Hamas as a shield for its terrorist activities. The terrorist operatives were involved in the planning of numerous terror attacks against Israel, and some of the terrorists were involved in holding hostages captive and took part in the October 7th Massacre.”
• Palestinian sources are reporting that Hamas’s overseas leader Ismail Haniyeh’s sister was killed in the strikes, along with several other family members. According to the IDF, some of Haniyeh’s family members had been involved in holding hostages and had played a role on October 7^th.
• Israel also announced that Sgt. Maj. Muhammad Alatrash, 39, of the Bedouin community Sa’wa in the Negev, who was previously listed as a hostage, was killed on October 7^th and that his body is being held by Hamas.

Context: Gallant arrived in the US at a time of heightened tensions between the Biden White House and Netanyahu’s government. Last week, public claims by Netanyahu that the US had slowed its supply of weapons to Israel were met with anger and incredulity from Washington.

• Over the weekend, Prime Minister Netanyahu once more accused the US of slowing its supply of weaponry to Israel. “We reached out to our American friends with a request to expedite the shipments,” he said. “We received all sorts of explanations, but the fundamental situation didn’t change. Certain items arrived in a trickle, but the greater mass of munitions remained behind.”
• The opposing messages coming from Israel and the US on weapons seem to stem from the Biden Administration returning to pre-war processes and timetables. While in the early stages of the war in Gaza, weapons transfers were fast-tracked, the administration now seems to have returned to the usual peace-time process, with its accompanying slower pace and holdups. It insists that only the one shipment – of 2,000 pound bombs whose use it feared in Rafah – has been actively withheld.
• There are contradictory assessments of the impact of this return to the status quo on Israel’s progress in Gaza. One Israeli official told Israel’s Channel 12 that the slowed pace had not impacted operations.
• The US has pushed back on Netanyahu’s claims, White House spokesman John Kirby saying last week that they were “perplexing to say the least, certainly disappointing, especially given that no other country is doing more to help Israel defend itself against the threat by Hamas.”
• “The idea that we had somehow stopped helping Israel with their self-defence needs is absolutely not accurate,” he said, describing the claim as “vexing and disappointing to us as much as it was incorrect.”
• Netanyahu also told Channel 14 of his desire to reduce Israel’s reliance on foreign military aid. “We have to invest much more in security and in self-production,” he said, “to free [ourselves] from dependence on others. We need to defeat this [military] wing that committed this massacre against us. Everyone needs to understand that that’s what gets done to anyone who starts a war against Israel.”
• The US was also angered by remarks made by Netanyahu saying Israel would only agree to a “partial” hostage deal, retaining the freedom to return to the fighting in Gaza after a pause.
• His Knesset speech represents a softening and clarifying of his position, and openness to the proposal made public by Biden in a speech in May, which would see all hostages released in a multi-stage deal which also provides for a sustainable ceasefire in Gaza.
• Hamas has made explicit that it will only agree to a hostage deal which clearly provides for a permanent end to the war.
• Whilst Halev’s comments attest to the military’s achievements in Rafah, it is thought that many Hamas terrorists fled the area with the general population using humanitarian corridors.

Looking ahead: Israeli media sources suggest that the US is set to release further weapons shipments to Israel in the coming days.

• With the fighting in Rafah anticipated to be completed in the next two or three weeks, the IDF could declare an end to the ground operation and a transition to ‘Phase C’.
• ‘Phase C’ would see the IDF redeployed out of Gaza’s population centres, whilst remaining in a buffer zone from which it could launch small-scale targeted operations against terror threats. The buffer zone will also provide reassurance to residents of southern Israel that they can return home.
• The US continues to pressure Qatar to expel the Hamas leadership resident there, with the latest suggestions being that they might relocate to Iraq, where they will receive the protection of Iran

The south: Israeli forces continue operations in the central and southern Gaza Strip. On Saturday, Israel attacked a Hamas military site in Gaza City’s Shati camp. Initial reports suggest that target of the strike – Hamas commander Raed Saad – had been killed. This remains unconfirmed, however.

• In a separate strike, Israel confirmed the killing of Muhammad Salah, a senior Hamas operative responsible for weapons development.
• Israel announced the death of Sgt. First Class (res.) Malkia Gross, 25, of the 205th “Iron Fist” Reserve Armoured Brigade’s 9212th Battalion, who died fighting in the southern Strip on Saturday.
• On Friday, the IDF killed two Hamas fighters operating along the Humanitarian Route from the Kerem Shalom Crossing into the Gaza Strip, close to humanitarian workers from the UN’s World Food Programme. “The gunmen were not in close proximity to the UN team during the strike,” the IDF said. “We emphasise that the UN workers were not the target of the operation and they were not harmed during the strike.”
• A separate strike was reported on Friday in the al-Mawasi area, which the International Red Cross said killed 22 people and damaged its offices. In response, the IDF said that “following an initial inquiry, there was no direct attack carried out by the IDF against a Red Cross facility. The incident will be quickly examined and its findings will be presented to our international partners.”
• “Intelligence-based, targeted operations” also continue in Rafah, the IDF’s primary are of operations, where the IDF said it uncovered weaponry, alongside tunnel shafts and underground terrorist infrastructure.
• In the city’s Tel Sultan neighbourhood, troops demolished a Hamas training complex and raided the offices of senior Hamas figures.
• On Sunday, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad fighters were targeted in buildings which previously served as UNRWA headquarters.

The north: On Saturday, the IDF reported that “An IAF aircraft conducted a precise strike in the Beqaa area in Lebanon in order to eliminate the terrorist Ayman Ratma, a central terror operative responsible for weapons supplies for the Hamas and Jamaa Islamiya terrorist organizations in Lebanon, as well as the development of terrorist infrastructure in the area… Ratma was eliminated due to his involvement in the promotion and execution of terrorist activities against Israel in the immediate future, as well as his involvement in advancing terrorist activity against Israeli civilians.”

• Two IDF reservists were injured yesterday, one lightly and one severely, in a Hezbollah anti-tank missile attack on Metula.
• Also over the weekend, a UAV crossed from Lebanon and fell in the area of Beit Hillel, with no injuries were reported. During the incident, an interceptor was launched toward the UAV, sounding rocket and missile sirens due to the possibility of falling shrapnel.
• On Saturday evening, the IDF said “IAF fighter jets struck a Hezbollah military structure and observation post in the area of Kfarkela. Additionally, a Hezbollah terrorist cell which had been identified by IDF troops was struck in the area of Taybeh.”
• The UK’s Daily Telegraph has meanwhile alleged that Hezbollah is using Beirut’s international airport to store weapons, including ballistic missiles, unguided artillery rockets, and laser-guided anti-tank guided missiles. Lebanese authorities have denied the accusations.

Context: After 261 days of war, and with 120 hostages remaining in Gaza (with an unknown number alive), Netanyahu remains adamant that although Israel is willing to do a partial deal for the return of some hostages, Israel will not agree to a deal explicitly providing for Hamas to remain in power. He continues to insist that the Israeli objective remains the full defeat of Hamas as a governing entity.

• Of the war in Gaza, Netanyahu said that “the high-intensity stage of the war is going to end. That is going to happen very soon,” he said.
• Netanyahu’s attitude to a hostage deal once more resulted in criticism from hostage families. The Hostages and Missing Families Forum said “we strongly condemn the prime minister’s statement in which he walked back from the Israeli proposal. This means he is abandoning 120 hostages and breaching the moral duty of the State of Israel to its citizens.”
• Netanyahu’s appearance on Channel 14 this weekend was his first Hebrew language TV interview since October 7th. He has previously faced criticism for failing to answer Israeli media questions and for preferring to engage with US networks. He also faced criticism for choosing to speak to Channel 14, widely considered a right-wing, partisan network.
• At one stage in the interview, Netanyahu was asked about the prospect of Israeli resettlement of parts of Gaza, a move supported by some on the ideological right. The question prompted cheers from the studio audience, though Netanyahu rejected the idea. “Settlement in Gaza is unrealistic and does not help achieve the war aims,” he said.
• Saad is considered the fourth-highest-ranking official in Hamas’s military wing, where he served as the chief operations officer who was tasked with building the wing’s military capabilities, and as the commander of its Gaza City Brigade.
• If confirmed, he would represent the most senior Hamas commander killed in several months, since the killing of Marwan Issa, deputy commander of the group’s military wing, in March. Saad was thought to have been present when Israel raided Gaza City’s Shifa Hospital in March but managed to flee.
• Gross’s death brings the total number of IDF troops killed since October 7^th to 665. Of them, 314 have been killed since the beginning of the ground invasion of Gaza.
• Of the use of UNWRA facilities, the IDF said that “this is another example of Hamas’ systematic exploitation of civilian infrastructure and the civilian population as a human shield for its terrorist activities.”

Looking ahead: Defence Minister Gallant began a US trip yesterday. Today he will meet with counterparts to discuss the southern and northern fronts. As he left Israel, he said “our ties with the United States are more important than ever. Our meetings with U.S. officials are critical to this war.”

• Netanyahu is anticipated to visit the US and address both Houses of Congress in late July

What’s happened: The IDF has announced the death of two reservists killed fighting in the Gaza Strip: Sergeants First Class Omer Smadga and Saadia Yaakov Dery of the Alexandroni Brigade. They were killed in a mortar attack in the central Gaza Strip where three other soldiers were severely injured.

• The IDF continues its combat operations against Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and other terrorist groups in Gaza. Ground troops are primarily operating in the south and centre of the Strip, with airstrikes taking place throughout.
• Joint operations between the IDF and Shin Bet have entailed the acquisition and elimination of individual Hamas operatives, generally commanders responsible for strategic capabilities. These have included a Nukhba commandoes and snipers who infiltrated southern Israel on 7^th October, and a drone operator known to have conducted numerous attacks on Israeli troops.
• Last night, the Israeli Air Force destroyed a Palestinian Islamic Jihad rocket launch site which had been placed within a shelter inside a humanitarian safe zone while the Nachal Brigade discovered a significant arms cache within a civilian home in Rafah.
• “Soldiers located inside a civilian residence large quantities of weapons hidden in wardrobes, including: grenades, explosives, a launcher and anti-tank missiles, ammunition and arms. In another scan made using, a drone, a tunnel shaft was located under a child’s bed, and in another room the soldiers located a passage in the wall that Hamas terrorist operatives had created in order to pass between residences in crowded neighbourhoods.”
• This indicates an ongoing pattern of terrorist groups embedding themselves within the Gaza Strip’s civilian and humanitarian infrastructure, risking high levels of collateral damage.
• Rafah remains the IDF’s primary operational focus in the Gaza Strip. The majority of Hamas operatives killed by Israeli Army ground troops were found in tunnels, and Hamas’s local tunnel system has been described as its “centre of gravity”.
• In the north, the IDF continues to strike Hezbollah commanders and military infrastructure in Lebanon, primarily in the south of the country. Yesterday, according to the IDF, “fighter jets struck two Hezbollah weapons storage facilities in the areas of Houla and Tallouseh, alongside Hezbollah military structures and terrorist infrastructure in the areas of Meiss El Jabal, Aitaroun, and Yaroun in southern Lebanon. Additionally, IDF artillery fired to remove threats in multiple areas in southern Lebanon.”
• Meanwhile, US Defence Secretary Austin has ordered that the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier and a warship had been ordered to extend their missions in the Mediterranean, as the US looks to support Israel with a two-carrier presence.

Context: With military operations in Gaza ongoing, there remain no immediate prospects for a hostage deal, with Hamas rejecting any proposal which does not explicitly and conclusively provide for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.

• 120 hostages remain in captivity in the Strip, with the Wall Street Journal estimating this week that only 50 remain alive. Israel has so far confirmed the deaths of 41 of the remaining hostages, but the US paper puts the number of dead at 66.
• “It seems like every week more hostages are dying or getting in danger or very sick,” head of the medical team for the Hostages and Missing Families Forum Hagai Levine told the paper.
• The deaths of the two IDF soldiers takes the total number of IDF soldiers killed since October 7^th to 664, 313 since the beginning of the ground operation in Gaza.
• The Israeli government continues to face severe pressure from a number of sources:
  • From protesters and hostage families to agree to a deal.
  • From the military echelon to properly prepare a scenario for the ‘Day After’ in Gaza now that fighting is drawing to a close. IDF spokesperson Hagari illustrated these concerns with unusually explicit public remarks in which he said that “To replace the people who are dealing with civilian services, the people who are distributing food or stealing the food, something else needs to be created that might grow. That is a decision for the political leadership, and the military will enact.”
  • From the US, following Prime Minister Netanyahu’s public claim earlier this week that Washington was withholding vital weaponry from Israel.
  • From within, as Netanyahu faces internal Likud and ultra-Orthodox rebellion over the so-called Rabbis’ Bill and efforts to formalise the exemption of the ultra-Orthodox from the military draft, and from Minister Ben Gvir over his desire to play a more influential role in the conduct of the war.

• On the northern front, Hezbollah leader Nasrallah threatens Israel with further escalation in which “no place” in Israel would be spared in a war with “no rules” and “no ceilings”.
• In recent weeks, there has been a ratcheting up of both Hezbollah attacks on Israel’s north, from which some 80,000 Israelis remained displaced, and in Israeli responses.
• According to data from Alma, between October 8^th 2023 and June 17^th this year, Hezbollah launched a total of 2,133 attacks on Israel, comprising rocket fire, drone attacks, anti-tank missiles and anti-aircraft guns. Of these, 47.5 percent were aimed at civilian targets.
• After Nasrallah also threatened Cyprus earlier this week, Nicosia has withdrawn its ambassador from Lebanon. Nasrallah said that “opening Cypriot airports and bases to the Israeli enemy to target Lebanon would mean that the Cypriot government is part of the war, and the resistance will deal with it as part of the war.” An EU spokesperson also hit out at Nasrallah, saying “any threats against our member state are threats against the EU”.
• With the US continuing to press for a diplomatic solution to prevent what it fears could escalate to an all-out regional war, Lebanese media reports US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein meeting with the speaker of the Lebanese parliament and Hezbollah ally Nabih Berri.

Looking ahead: IDF officials said this week that they expected operations in Rafah to be concluded within a month. Officials also warned, though, that they expected an IDF brigade would have to remain deployed along the Philadelphi Corridor moving forward to stem the tide of illicit weapons smuggled into Gaza from Egypt.

• The IDF also continues to raise the readiness of troops on the ground regarding the northern front. OC Northern Command Maj. Gen. Uri Gordin and IDF Operations Director Maj. Gen. Oded Basiuk this week approved operational plans for an Israeli offensive in Lebanon