Yesterday (7th April), the Egyptian government put forward a proposal for a ceasefire and hostage deal.

• According to this plan, Hamas would release eight living hostages and the bodies of eight dead hostages in exchange for a much larger number of Palestinian prisoners and detainees held by Israel. The ceasefire would last 40 to 70 days.
• The Egyptian plan is a compromise between the Hamas proposal to release five living hostages and the Israeli ceasefire proposal, which would have seen eleven hostages released.
• All three proposals are essentially extensions of the first stage of the ceasefire agreed to in January, and all three leave open the more contentious issues of the second stage, which would see the release of all remaining hostages, a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, and an elusive agreement on the future governance of the territory.

What’s happened: Ten rockets were fired from Gaza on Sunday night towards the cities of Ashkelon and Ashdod.

• The Iron Dome anti-missile defence system intercepted 5 of the rockets. Four landed in open areas while one hit a car in Ashkelon, and damaged the surroundings – including an apartment – with shrapnel. Interceptor missile fragments landed in several other locations. Around ten people suffered light injuries.  
• This rocket barrage was the largest in the past eight months.
• In response, the IDF attacked the area from where the rockets were fired in Deir al-Balah, in the central Gaza Strip, and Gaza City’s Sajaiya neighbourhood. According to Palestinian reports, two people were killed in an IDF strike on a tent camp in Nasser Hospital in Khan Yunis. 
• As a consequence of the rocket fire, for the first time, the IDF issued an evacuation of the Deir al-Balah area. 

Context: With fighting in Gaza continuing, the IDF over the weekend expanded the security buffer zone in both the north and south of the Strip.

• The aerial campaign has also continued, with over 130 terror infrastructures sites targeted.
• The military campaign is aimed at pressuring Hamas to return to the hostage talks, but this has not yet born fruit.
• In the absence of a deal, the IDF is preparing to expand their operation, but also recognise the need to renew the flow of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip. 
• No aid has entered for the past five weeks, and at some point Israel will have no choice but to renew the supply of food, fuel and medicine.
• During the first stage of the hostage deal, the number of aid trucks entering Gaza rose from 150-200 daily during the war to 600 during the ceasefire. However Hamas commandeered most of these goods.
• In the IDF assessment, there isn’t any hunger right now, but in the next month and a half food in the warehouses will run out. 
• IDF officials have been holding situation assessment meetings on a daily basis, given the sensitivity of the issue. 
• The fuel into Gaza is harder to track. It is thought Hamas has stockpiled large quantities, primarily for lengthy stays in the tunnel, and has sold some of it to pay salaries to its fighters.
• The IDF estimates that roughly 200,000 Gazans have once again left their homes on IDF orders after Rafah was surrounded last week and the corridor between Khan Yunis and Rafah was seized.

Looking ahead: Israeli officials will continue to monitor the humanitarian situation in Gaza on a daily basis.     

• A pilot programme is expected to be trialled in Rafah, where the IDF itself will distribute food and medicine to local residents, as an alternative to Hamas.
• Israel hopes to enlist international aid organisations to distribute food at distribution centres that will be controlled by the IDF.  

IDF are continuing their offensive activity, expanding the ground operation in both northern and southern Gaza.

• On Friday morning the IDF Spokesperson’s Office confirmed they were expanding their control in the Shejaiya  area in northern Gaza. Among the targets was a Hamas “command and control centre.”
• On Thursday, they targeted another command and control centre, “that also served as a central meeting point” in the Jabalya neighbourhood (also in northern Gaza).
• The IDF announced than in the strike in Jabalya, four known Hamas terrorists were eliminated including one who had “ infiltrated into Israel and participated in the murderous massacre on October 7th,” alongside others responsible for firing rockets.
• The IDF once again noted, “Prior to the strike, numerous steps were taken to mitigate harm to civilians including the use of aerial surveillance and additional intelligence.”

Context: Israeli leaders have emphasised that the objective of the campaign in Gaza is to exert more pressure on Hamas, to bring about a new deal to return the remaining hostages.

• Defence Minister Katz explained, “The purpose of the operation is to advance the hostages’ release. We are exerting pressure to prompt Hamas to accept the Americans’ proposal – the release of 11 living hostages and another 16 deceased. And, in the course of the ceasefire, we will set in motion a process of further dialogue. At the moment, we are acting in stages to ratchet up the pressure.”
• As part of the pressure campaign the IDF intends to divide the Gaza Strip into four separate enclaves.
• In the south the IDF are expanding control of the area in-between the cities of Rafah and Khan Yunis, now referred to as the “Morag Corridor.”
• This is considered an operational route for both defensive and offensive manoeuvring, that breaks the connection, both overground and underground between the reconstituted Hamas battalions in Khan Yunis and Rafah.
• In the north the operation in Bet Lahiya is designed to form a northern buffer zone, cutting of Gaza City from the more northern districts.
• Earlier this week, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Zamir said,  “The only thing that can stop us from ongoing advancement is the release of our hostages. Their release will allow our troops to return to the opening positions and for further negotiations.”
• The new IDF Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin announced yesterday that, “Since the resumption of operations in the Gaza Strip, we have struck more than 600 terrorist targets… eliminated more than 250 terrorists, including twelve senior members of the Hamas .. all terrorists, all of whom took part in the October 7th massacre.”
• The latest assessment is that the IDF currently holds roughly 30 per cent of territory inside the Gaza Strip.
• There is also cautious optimism over the resumption of anti-Hamas protests being held by Gazan civilians this week.  
• Relating to Lebanon, Defrin said, “we continue to act in accordance with the ceasefire and understandings with Lebanon. We hold the Lebanese state responsible for what happens within its territory and will continue to enforce security measures and protect the residents of northern Israel.”

Looking ahead: The IDF has plans for an even more expansive ground operation in Gaza.

• The hope that the credibility of the threat will induce Hamas to return to hostage negotiations.

What’s happened: This morning Defence Minister Katz declared that the operation in Gaza “is expanding to crush and clear the area from terrorists and terrorist infrastructure and to seize broad swaths of territory that will be added to the State of Israel’s security zones. I call on the residents of Gaza to act now to remove Hamas and to return all the hostages.”

• The IDF has expanded its air campaign as well as its ground manoeuvres.
• Overnight the IDF targeted Hamas infrastructure in several locations across the Gaza Strip using air strikes and artillery fire.
• Prior to the attacks Israel has continued to issue evacuation orders to Gaza residents in the north and south of the Strip.    
• According to Palestinian reports, following the air strikes, IDF ground forces began to operate on a broad scale in Rafah. Al Jazeera reported that 17 people were killed in the Israeli attacks.
• For a second consecutive day, Hamas launched a rocket from northern Gaza towards Sderot. The rocket crossed into Israeli airspace and was intercepted.

Context: Almost 18 months since October 7th, Israel once more finds itself intensifying the attacks on Hamas in Gaza, and also operating against terror infrastructure in Lebanon.

• Despite extensive fighting, there remain concerns that Hamas still possesses some offensive capabilities.
• In Gaza the current approach of taking control of more territory is aimed at weakening Hamas’s public standing. This, alongside the halting of aid, is designed to create “decisive pressure” on Hamas and aims to oblige it to move more quickly towards a hostage deal.
• For example, in southern Gaza, the IDF is now controlling a corridor between the cities of Khan Yunis and Rafah. The purpose of the operation is to hold territory that is currently mostly empty of Palestinian residents, following recent IDF instructions for Gazans living in the area to leave their homes.
• The military operation has the support of the security echelon as a tactic to induce Hamas to make concessions in the hostage negotiations.  
• However the Hostage Families Forum issued a strong condemnation of Defence Minister Katz’s statement saying, “Instead of getting the hostages out in an agreement and ending the war, the Israeli government is sending more troops into Gaza to fight in the same places they have fought in time and time again.” The Forum added, “Responsibility for the release of the 59 hostages from Hamas captivity resides with the Israeli government. Our pained sense is that that mission has been relegated to the bottom of the set of priorities and has become a secondary mission only.”
• Another part of the ground offensive is a component of a military plan to expand the perimeter. Israel is looking to maintain at least part of the territory it has taken that is immediately adjacent to the border. This security zone would then serve as buffer to prevent future attacks on Israeli border communities.
• According to reports Israel is now demanding that Hamas accept and implement a deal that includes:
  • The release of Edan Alexander, (the captured IDF soldier with dual Israeli – US citizenship).
  • The release of 10 more living hostages, followed by a 40-day ceasefire and a resumption of aid into the Strip.
  • On the fifth day of the ceasefire, Hamas would be obliged to provide information about all of the hostages it still holds.
  • On the tenth day it would be required to release the remains of 16 deceased hostages.
  • As part of the ceasefire, Israel will commit to discussing ending the war, whilst insisting that Hamas leaders go into exile and the Gaza Strip is fully demilitarised.

Looking ahead: The IDF is expected to soon release the findings from its latest internal inquiry that refers to the Nova festival massacre, and present it to families of people murdered at the festival.

• The IDF could still expand its ground manoeuvres and take more territory inside Gaza as part of the pressure campaign to reach another hostage deal.
• The Pentagon has announced it is sending a second aircraft carrier to the region.
• Israel’s National Security Council warned that global terrorist organisations backed by Iran plan to target Jews and Israelis traveling during Passover.

What’s happened: Israel’s security cabinet convened on Saturday night to discuss the military campaign and efforts to negotiate the release of the remaining hostages.

• Speaking to the wider cabinet last night, Prime Minister Netanyahu argued that, “the military pressure (on Hamas) is working. It is working because it is simultaneous: On the one hand, it is pounding Hamas’s military and governing capabilities, and on the other it is creating the conditions for releasing our hostages. This is exactly what we are doing.”
• He confirmed the decision from Saturday night, “to increase the pressure, which was already increased, in order to further pound Hamas and create the optimal conditions for releasing our hostages.”
• Netanyahu also confirmed that in parallel to military operations, Israel is also conducting negotiations, “under fire” which is why they are proving to “effective”. “Suddenly we see that there are cracks” within Hamas.  
• Military action continued in the Gaza Strip over the weekend, with ground operations focusing on the southern town of Rafah.
• Air strikes were carried out at Hamas targets across the Strip, including a cell attempting to launch mortars at Israel.
• The US has continued to launch air strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen following further missile attacks on Israel over the weekend. The Houthis have attempted to attack Israel at least eight times since 18^th March, after the IDF resumed significant military operations in the Gaza Strip. All missiles have been intercepted outside of Israel’s borders without causing significant damage or injuries.
• The former hostage Yarden Bibas, whose wife and two sons were murdered while in captivity, was interviewed by CBS’s “60 Minutes.” Bibas said, “I’m here because of Trump. I’m here only because of him. I think he’s the only one who can stop this war again. He has to convince Netanyahu, convince Hamas. I think he can do it.”

Context: The current posture of the Israeli government appears to support increasing the military pressure on Hamas to induce them to return to the hostage negotiations.

• It seems there is a consensus among the political and military leadership that military pressure is the correct approach.        
• However, the opposition has continued to attack the government. In the latest example, Yesh Atid MK Merav Ben-Ari spoke to Kan Radio this morning questioning the military pressure approach. “You’ll increase the military pressure, and then what? That will kill the hostages. You tried that for a year and a half already. We need to stop the war and to get the hostages back…we’re talking about a jihadist organisation. It’s clear to me that another day will come when it will attack the State of Israel, and we’ll be able to attack them, and we’ll be able to destroy that organisation – and that organisation needs to be destroyed. But first get the hostages back.”        
• Israel is insisting on the ‘Witkoff proposal,’ whereby all of the hostages, the living and the dead, are to be released in two installments – the first group at the beginning of the process, and the remainder at the end.
• Moreover, according to reports, Israel is seemingly willing to begin to discuss ending the war during the 50 day interval between the first and second releases
• However, substantial gaps remain between the sides. These include:
  • The conditions under which to begin talks about the second stage and ending the war.
  • The new ratio of the number of terrorists, (and whom) that are to be released in exchange for hostages. So far Hamas’s excessive demands are a non-starter.  
  • The extent of the IDF withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.
  • What international mechanisms can be created to guarantee the end the war.
• Israel is also thought to be considering a renewal of the delivery of aid into Gaza, which Hamas has demanded. However, Israel is looking to take over the delivery process to ensure supplies reach the civilians of Gaza, and not Hamas.
• Israel’s position of discussing an end to the war following a hostage release is a counter-proposal to Hamas reportedly being open to releasing five hostages in exchange for a 50-day pause in fighting (although it is unclear if their offer implies all five are alive).
• Fifty nine hostages have been held captive in Gaza for 542 days, of whom 24 are thought to be alive.  
• There is hope that concerted US diplomatic pressure on Hamas, coupled with the free hand they are giving Israel militarily (unlike the Biden administration), could induce Hamas to accept Witkoff’s parameters.    
• The security cabinet also discussed the authenticity of the anti-Hamas protests inside Gaza, amid suggestions they could be staged by Hamas to deliberately present a false picture. However, according to Hamas sources, six Palestinians were executed this past weekend. There have been no demonstrations since Friday.  
• The government has also announced a new head of the Shin Bet security service: Vice Admiral (retd) Eli Sharvit.  He served in the IDF for 36 years, five of which as the commander of the Israel Navy, retiring in 2021.
• Last week, the High Court of Justice allowed Netanyahu to interview candidates to succeed Ronen Bar, despite the opposition from the attorney general.

Looking ahead: Hamas is under pressure to secure a ceasefire and resumption of aid in the context of the Eid al-Fitr holiday and the end of Ramadan.

• Israel is keen to see a new deal ahead of Passover that begins in just under 2 weeks.
• Despite the announcement of Sharvit’s appointment, the High Court is scheduled to hear petitions against Bar’s removal on April 8^th.
• If Sharvit is confirmed as the next head of Shin Bet, he will be the second director to appointed from outside the organisation.  Ami Ayalon, was also a former commander of the Navy. He was appointed director following the assassination of Prime Minister Rabin in 1995.  

What’s happened: For a second consecutive day, thousands of Palestinians across different parts of Gaza protested against Hamas. 

• In Beit Lahiya in the northern Gaza Strip there were demonstrations for the second consecutive day. The protesters chanted: “Hamas out. Hamas is terrorist.”   
• In the Sajaiya neighbourhood of Gaza City, (considered a Hamas stronghold) area, hundreds of people, filled the streets and chanted: “For the sake of God—Hamas out,” 
• Elsewhere, placards that were held up by the demonstrators read: “Hamas doesn’t represent us,” and “Stop the war.”
• The Israel Hayom newspaper quoted one Gazan saying, “The fear of Hamas has been broken. The residents of Gaza understand that Hamas’s ongoing rule means ongoing suffering in the Strip.”
• Yesterday, Defence Minister Katz posted a video with Arabic subtitles in which he addressed the residents of Gaza saying, “Learn from the residents of Beit Lahiya, demand Hamas’s removal from Gaza and the immediate release of all the Israeli hostages, that is the only way to stop the war.”
• Katz added, “Residents of Gaza, soon the IDF will operate powerfully in additional areas in Gaza and you will be required to evacuate the combat zones for the sake of your own protection. The plans are ready and have been approved. Hamas is endangering your lives and will make you lose your homes and increasingly more territory, which will be added to the Israeli defensive array.”
• Also yesterday rockets were fired out of Gaza in two separate incidents. In the first, a rocket landed in an orchard, just 100m away from a kindergarten full of children. Later in the day another rocket was intercepted in the Beersheva area. 
• Meanwhile, the IDF have continued their air campaign, which saw Hamas spokesperson Abdel-Latif Al-Qanoua eliminated, according to the IDF.  
• Speaking in the Knesset plenum yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu related to the breakdown of hostage deal negotiations and about the next stages of the war. Netanyahu said, “The longer Hamas persists with its refusal to release our hostages, the more powerful the steamroller we use will be. That includes seizing territory and other things that I won’t go into detail about here.” 
• He added, “More and more Gazans understand that Hamas is visiting disaster upon them. That shows that our policy is working. We are determined to achieve all of the war’s objectives: to destroy Hamas’s military and political capabilities, to get back our hostages, to guarantee that Gaza won’t pose a threat to the State of Israel—and to get our residents back to their homes safely.”

Context: Israel resumed the fighting in Gaza last week after Hamas rejected US efforts to extend the ceasefire, and further exchanges aimed at releasing more of the hostages.

• The IDF surprised Hamas by launching air strikes that targeted both military commanders and civil / political leaders. 
• The IDF campaign has so far included air strikes and limited ground incursions. On the ground, the IDF have retaken control of part of the Netzarim Corridor that bisects the Strip.
• The reunification of the Strip along the north-south axis was considered to have been a key achievement by Hamas during the recent ceasefire. Its recapture by the IDF is thus a significant blow. 
• The IDF have also expanded their footprint in the south around Rafah (throughout the recent ceasefire the IDF remained on the Philadelphi Corridor along the Egyptian border), and in northern Gaza in areas adjacent to the Israeli border.       
• This is the context of Netanyahu’s threats from the Knesset yesterday regarding taking control of more territory in Gaza. This could be used as a bargaining chip in future negotiations to secure the release of the remaining 59 hostages.      
• The first anti- Hamas demonstration broke out on Tuesday following renewed Israeli calls on civilians to leave neighbourhoods from which rockets had been fired into Israel. 
• The protests have been led by people affiliated with the Bidna Naish (“we want to live”) Movement, inspired by Arab Spring protestors elsewhere in the region from over a decade ago. This group has organised anti-Hamas demonstrations in the past, primarily focused on the economic situation in the Gaza Strip. 
• The chants of “Hamas out. Hamas is terrorist,” are reminiscent of protesters in Cairo who chanted, “Muslim Brotherhood out. Muslim Brotherhood are terrorists.”
• Fatah and Palestinian Authority officials have also expressed support of the wave of protests. 
• The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry released what it claims to be a comprehensive list – numbering 50,021 individuals – of the Palestinians who were killed or died since October 7^th 2023. According to that data, combat-age males are vastly overrepresented among the casualties.
• According to the IDF, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) has struck over 430 targets in Gaza over the last week.
• Israel is also simultaneously engaged militarily on other fronts:
  • The IDF confirmed they carried out further air strikes in Syria, against the “remaining strategic military capabilities” at the Tadmur and T-4 bases. 
  • Over the past week, 18 targets in Syria have been struck.
  • In addition, in response to six rockets fire from Lebanon toward the Galilee earlier this week, the IAF struck more than 40 Hezbollah terrorist targets across Lebanon.
  • There have also been six interceptions of surface-to-surface missiles launched by the Houthis from Yemen. Israel has not responded, as the US are engaged in that arena.   

Looking ahead: The anti-Hamas protests are expected to continue. In southern Gaza a group representing several large families has called for a “day of rage” tomorrow. 

• In parallel, Israel is expected to increase the intensity of its operations in Gaza, adding more pressure on Hamas, but without expanding the IDF’s ground campaign at this point.