The South: Sirens sounded in Israeli communities near the Gaza Strip this morning, as approximately 20 projectiles were launched from the Khan Yunis area. Some were intercepted while some fell inside southern Israel, with no injuries reported. IDF returned artillery fire to the source.

• Fighting continues in Rafah, where IDF troops discovered “significant tunnel shafts… that led to a tunnel network.” The discovered tunnel is said to be 500 metres long and passes near an UNRWA school. In further searches of the area, troops found nine rocket launchers.
• Fighting also continues in the central Strip, and in the northern Gaza City’s Shejaiya neighbourhood, where troops killed dozens of Hamas fighters in close-quarters combat and with aerial fire support.
• According to the IDF, “as part of operational searches of civilian structures converted into terrorist infrastructure, the soldiers raided a UN school that the terrorists of the Shejaiya Battalion were using as a hideout and a warehouse. The troops discovered dozens of weapons, grenades, and valuable intelligence documents.”
• “Additionally, the soldiers located a terrorist war room in a medical clinic containing communications devices, enemy documents, and observation devices. This is further evidence of Hamas embedding itself in civilian structures for terror purposes.”
• On Saturday, the IDF announced that two soldiers had fallen in battle in Gaza. Staff Sergeant Yair Avitan, 20, from Ra’anana, a soldier from the 890th Battalion of the Paratroopers Brigade, Sergeant First Class (Res.) Yakir Shmuel Tatelbaum, 21, from Ma’ale Adumim, a soldier from the 77th Battalion of the 7th Brigade, both died fighting in northern Gaza.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant yesterday held a situation assessment with the heads of the security establishment, in anticipation of the coming completion of the operation in Rafah.
• Gallant said: “We will continue and will intensify until we reach a situation in which we strangle Hamas’s oxygen pipeline and don’t let them rebuild their forces.”
• Israeli media said that the security chiefs reiterated their demand for political approval for plans for the ‘day after’ in Gaza.

The north: Twenty-one Israeli soldiers were wounded yesterday in a Hezbollah drone attack near Merom Golan. One soldier sustained serious injuries and the others are listed as being in either moderate or light condition.

• Golan Regional Council Chairman Uri Kellner said: “I want to make it clear to the decision-makers in the State of Israel, both the military and the civilian. We do not accept this equation of every time that the IDF attacks deep inside Lebanon, Hezbollah’s response is here in the Golan. We have to break this equation, we have to provide security and protect us, the residents of the Golan.”
• Overnight, the Israeli Air Force struck Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, including in the Kfarkela, Houla, El Biyada and Rab El Thalathine areas. IDF artillery also struck to remove a threat in Al-Dahira.
• On Friday night, three hostile UAVs were identified crossing from Lebanon into northern Israel and fell in the Western Galilee area. No injures were reported. 25 launches were also reported crossing from southern Lebanon into the western Galilee and Galilee panhandle areas. No injuries were reported, though damage was caused to a building and firefighters had to extinguish multiple blazes caused by the launches.

Context: The 20 rockets fired this morning is the first time in several months that Hamas has been able to launch so large a battery of rockets at Israel.  Overall, Hamas has fired almost 20,000 rockets at Israel in the last nine months.

• Through a combination of Hamas having fired rockets and the IDF having destroyed them in many places, the IDF assessment is that Hamas has only around 10 percent of its pre-war rocket capacity left.
• Unlike Hezbollah in the north, Hamas is not able to be re-supplied by its Iranian patron. Reports today suggest that Iran has accelerated its arms smuggling operation to Hezbollah in recent weeks. The latest shipments are thought to be focussing on anti-aircraft systems, as well as more sophisticated anti-tank missiles.
• In parallel, Iran continues to threaten Israel, its UN mission last week pledging an “obliterating war” if Israel attacked Lebanon.
• The fighting in Rafah is drawing to a close, the IDF is soon expected to announce an end to the eight-month ground operation and move to the third phase of the war.
• Overall, the IDF is thought to have killed or injured over 1000 Hamas terrorists in Rafah, out of the 3,000 that were deployed prior the incursion.
• The rest have fled north along with the general population, though some are likely to be hiding in the underground tunnels.
• The anticipated announcement will declare an end to this phase, allowing the IDF to withdraw most of its troops.
• However, the war against Hamas is expected to continue, just in a different form. The fighting is expected to resemble the targeted, intelligence-led, precision operations focusing on senior Hamas figures and on Hamas’s attempts to reconstitute its fighting force, as we have seen in northern Gaza.
• As Israel transitions towards Phase Three, the IDF will redeploy out of the Palestinian population centres, remaining in the corridor that bisects the Strip in the central Netzarim area, and the Philadelphi Corridor along the Egyptian border.
• Control of the Philadelphi Corridor is crucial to ensuring that Hamas cannot smuggle in more weapons and rearm.
• The IDF are expected to continue to dismantle and decommission the tunnels under the Gaza-Egypt border, but will need to do so carefully and cautiously as many have been booby-trapped with heavy explosives.
• The latest IDF fatalities takes the overall total to 670 IDF soldiers killed since October 7^th, of which 316 fell in the Gaza Strip since the beginning of the ground operation.
• 120 hostages remain in Hamas captivity, now for 268 days. According to the latest Israeli assessment, at least 43 are no longer alive.
• There are currently no negotiations taking place, though reports suggest Qatar is finally placing pressure on Hamas to soften its stance.
• The end of the ground incursion could be a window of opportunity to renew talks.

Looking ahead: The security cabinet is expected to reconvene later this week, following which the prime minister could announce an end to the ground incursion in Gaza.

• By withdrawing troops in the south, some could be deployed to the north ahead of a potential operation against Hezbollah’s presence in southern Lebanon

Northern front: The IDF has completed a large scale training exercise close to the northern border.

• It said that troops simulated several, “extreme scenarios, combat in complex and mountainous terrain, activating fire, and urban warfare, as part of increasing readiness in the northern arena.”
• Prime Minister Netanyahu oversaw part of the training, saying afterwards, “the brigade-level exercise is very impressive in terms of capabilities, mobilisation and implementation. The implementation is very considerable, with soldiers and commanders from all parts of the country and all parts of Israeli society. They are determined and devoted to the mission – to defend the country and achieve victory, nothing less.”
• IDF Chief of Staff Halevi also oversaw the manoeuvres, accompanied by several senior commanders.
• In parallel, President Herzog completed a two day tour of the north, focused primarily on civil society.
• At the conclusion of his visit, the president met with the heads of the local councils in the frontline communities and said: ““I remind all of Israel that the displaced, the evacuees, and all those who endure the fires and the flames are Jews, Muslims, Druze, and Christians alike. We are aware that all aspects of life here are challenged, and we are united in this battle.”
• He added, “I reiterate what I have said before – the international community cannot act surprised if the situation spirals out of control, as the international community has almost done nothing to contribute to the full security of the residents of Israel, despite repeated violations of treaties and international agreements from Lebanon by Hezbollah.”
• Amid concerns about imminent war, dozens of countries have revised their travel advisories regarding Israel and Lebanon and have called on their citizens to leave both countries immediately and to refrain from traveling to the region.
• After a relatively quiet morning, yesterday afternoon sirens were heard in several northern communities.
• On the Lebanese side, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) struck Hezbollah infrastructure in the areas of Shuba, Aita ash-Shab and Khiam.
• Later in the afternoon, four anti-tank missiles were fired at the northern Israeli town of Metulla, damaging a residential building, but no injuries were reported.
• On Wednesday evening, Syrian sources reported that the IAF launched an attack on several targets on the outskirts of Damascus.  According to the UK based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, at least three people were killed and 11 injured. The target was apparently a command centre of a Hezbollah-affiliated Iranian militia.
• Syrian regime sources said the targets were owned by the Iranian Jihad Habniya organisation, which focuses on rebuilding Damascus suburbs damaged during the Syrian civil war..

Context: Israel’s preference is to reach a diplomatic set of understandings with Hezbollah that would allow for the residents of northern Israel to return to their homes after more than eight months of being internally displaced.

• The hope is that US mediation and pressure can lead to Hezbollah removing its forces away from the border and ending their ariel attacks. However, the risk of an extended conflagration is high.
• Since October 8th, there have been over 4,700 missiles fired towards northern Israel from Lebanon and Syria. 29 Israelis (both civilians and soldiers) have been killed in the north in that time.
• On the ground, this last week has actually seen a small decrease in Hezbollah attacks, with an average of around 6 attacks each day. This is similar to rate from earlier this year and lower compared to the figures during most of May and June.
• The Lebanese front was high on the agenda during Defence Minister Gallant’s meetings in Washington this week. He met with several senior US administration officials, including Secretary of State Blinken, Secretary of Defence Austin, National Security Adviser Sullivan and Special Envoy Hochstein.
• As Israel hopes for a diplomatic solution, Israeli officials are keen to rebuild their deterrence against Hezbollah, hence the increase in troop deployment and training. A third component of the deterrence is to ensure they receive the necessary arms shipments from the US.
• Minister Gallant related to this following his meeting with National Security Advisor Sullivan, saying, “it is moving to see the great support we receive from the US government and the American public. During the meetings we made significant progress, obstacles were removed and bottlenecks were addressed, in order to advance a variety of issues, and more specifically the topic of force build-up and munition supply that we must bring to the State of Israel.”
• As fighting eases in the south, the IDF is able to redeploy troops to the north. This is also part of the IDF’s transition to the third stage of the fighting in the Gaza Strip, as they are expected to redeploy out of population centres into an eastern buffer zone.
• If a hostage deal can be reached with Hamas it is hoped that, just like the temporary pause in November, Hezbollah will also cease its attacks, allowing diplomatic efforts a chance to bear fruit.

Looking ahead: The IDF is expected to continue their training and preparations, but no date for an operation has been set.

• President Herzog appealed to government authorities to do more to assist the residents of the north. He said, “I call on the tax authorities and all the bodies involved in supporting small and medium businesses, and industrial enterprises to act much faster. We see small businesses collapsing because no one is giving them attention.”
• He continued: “If we want people to stay and not evacuate, we need to provide them with a strong home front, and the central government must assist all those working hard, risking their lives, operating emergency response teams, schools, and much more, while dealing with the emotional and psychological challenges as summer approaches and the school year begins.

What’s happened: Israeli Defence Minister Gallant held several meetings with US officials in Washington yesterday, including with Secretary of Defence Austin, Secretary of State Blinken, Special Envoy Hochstein and CIA Director Burns.

• In his meeting with Blinken, said Gallant discussed the transition to ‘Phase C’ in Gaza and its impact on the region, including on Lebanon and other areas.
• “The meetings we are holding are extremely important and impactful on the future of the war in Gaza and our ability to achieve the goals of the war, on developments on the northern border, and other areas.”
• With Burns, Gallant discussed the question of a hostage deal, saying “I have been dealing with this issue since the first day [of the war] and I would like to emphasise that it is Israel’s primary commitment to return the hostages, with no exception, to their families and homes. We will continue to make every possible effort to bring them home.”
• On this issue, having appeared to rule out the so-called Biden hostage deal proposal during a Channel 14 interview over the weekend, in a speech to the Knesset yesterday Prime Minister Netanyahu appeared to row back slightly.
• Netanyahu made three pledges:
  • “First, we will not end the war until we return all of our hostages – 120 hostages, the living and the deceased. We are committed to the Israeli proposal, which President Biden has welcomed. Our position has not changed.”
  • “Second, which does not contradict the first, we will not end the war until we eliminate Hamas and until we return the residents of the south and the north securely to their homes.”
  • “And third – at any price and in any way, we will thwart Iran’s intentions to destroy us.”
• Gallant made reference to recent tensions between Israel and the US, saying “the alliance between Israel and the United States, led by the US over many years, is extremely important. Other than the IDF, our ties with the US are the most important element for our future from a security perspective. We are discussing a variety of issues. In areas where we have disagreements, we discuss everything in detail and reach agreements and solve issues. And I am sure this will be true this time as well.”
• Gallant’s office said he told Blinken that “the eyes of both our enemies and our friends are on the relationship between the US and Israel. We must resolve the differences between us quickly and stand together – this is how we will achieve our goals and weaken our enemies.”
• Elsewhere, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi yesterday conducted a situational assessment in the Rafah area of the Gaza Strip with other senior IDF officers. “We are clearly approaching the point where we can say we have dismantled the Rafah Brigade,” Halevi said, “that it is defeated not in the sense that there are no more terrorists, but in the sense that it can no longer function as a fighting unit. It has suffered many casualties, and you will ensure until the completion of the mission here, to eliminate as many terrorists and destroy as much terrorist infrastructure as possible going forward.”
• In Gaza, overnight the IDF struck Hamas operatives inside two structures in Shati and Daraj Tuffah in the northern Strip. The IDF said that “The terrorists operated inside school compounds that were used by Hamas as a shield for its terrorist activities. The terrorist operatives were involved in the planning of numerous terror attacks against Israel, and some of the terrorists were involved in holding hostages captive and took part in the October 7th Massacre.”
• Palestinian sources are reporting that Hamas’s overseas leader Ismail Haniyeh’s sister was killed in the strikes, along with several other family members. According to the IDF, some of Haniyeh’s family members had been involved in holding hostages and had played a role on October 7^th.
• Israel also announced that Sgt. Maj. Muhammad Alatrash, 39, of the Bedouin community Sa’wa in the Negev, who was previously listed as a hostage, was killed on October 7^th and that his body is being held by Hamas.

Context: Gallant arrived in the US at a time of heightened tensions between the Biden White House and Netanyahu’s government. Last week, public claims by Netanyahu that the US had slowed its supply of weapons to Israel were met with anger and incredulity from Washington.

• Over the weekend, Prime Minister Netanyahu once more accused the US of slowing its supply of weaponry to Israel. “We reached out to our American friends with a request to expedite the shipments,” he said. “We received all sorts of explanations, but the fundamental situation didn’t change. Certain items arrived in a trickle, but the greater mass of munitions remained behind.”
• The opposing messages coming from Israel and the US on weapons seem to stem from the Biden Administration returning to pre-war processes and timetables. While in the early stages of the war in Gaza, weapons transfers were fast-tracked, the administration now seems to have returned to the usual peace-time process, with its accompanying slower pace and holdups. It insists that only the one shipment – of 2,000 pound bombs whose use it feared in Rafah – has been actively withheld.
• There are contradictory assessments of the impact of this return to the status quo on Israel’s progress in Gaza. One Israeli official told Israel’s Channel 12 that the slowed pace had not impacted operations.
• The US has pushed back on Netanyahu’s claims, White House spokesman John Kirby saying last week that they were “perplexing to say the least, certainly disappointing, especially given that no other country is doing more to help Israel defend itself against the threat by Hamas.”
• “The idea that we had somehow stopped helping Israel with their self-defence needs is absolutely not accurate,” he said, describing the claim as “vexing and disappointing to us as much as it was incorrect.”
• Netanyahu also told Channel 14 of his desire to reduce Israel’s reliance on foreign military aid. “We have to invest much more in security and in self-production,” he said, “to free [ourselves] from dependence on others. We need to defeat this [military] wing that committed this massacre against us. Everyone needs to understand that that’s what gets done to anyone who starts a war against Israel.”
• The US was also angered by remarks made by Netanyahu saying Israel would only agree to a “partial” hostage deal, retaining the freedom to return to the fighting in Gaza after a pause.
• His Knesset speech represents a softening and clarifying of his position, and openness to the proposal made public by Biden in a speech in May, which would see all hostages released in a multi-stage deal which also provides for a sustainable ceasefire in Gaza.
• Hamas has made explicit that it will only agree to a hostage deal which clearly provides for a permanent end to the war.
• Whilst Halev’s comments attest to the military’s achievements in Rafah, it is thought that many Hamas terrorists fled the area with the general population using humanitarian corridors.

Looking ahead: Israeli media sources suggest that the US is set to release further weapons shipments to Israel in the coming days.

• With the fighting in Rafah anticipated to be completed in the next two or three weeks, the IDF could declare an end to the ground operation and a transition to ‘Phase C’.
• ‘Phase C’ would see the IDF redeployed out of Gaza’s population centres, whilst remaining in a buffer zone from which it could launch small-scale targeted operations against terror threats. The buffer zone will also provide reassurance to residents of southern Israel that they can return home.
• The US continues to pressure Qatar to expel the Hamas leadership resident there, with the latest suggestions being that they might relocate to Iraq, where they will receive the protection of Iran

The south: Israeli forces continue operations in the central and southern Gaza Strip. On Saturday, Israel attacked a Hamas military site in Gaza City’s Shati camp. Initial reports suggest that target of the strike – Hamas commander Raed Saad – had been killed. This remains unconfirmed, however.

• In a separate strike, Israel confirmed the killing of Muhammad Salah, a senior Hamas operative responsible for weapons development.
• Israel announced the death of Sgt. First Class (res.) Malkia Gross, 25, of the 205th “Iron Fist” Reserve Armoured Brigade’s 9212th Battalion, who died fighting in the southern Strip on Saturday.
• On Friday, the IDF killed two Hamas fighters operating along the Humanitarian Route from the Kerem Shalom Crossing into the Gaza Strip, close to humanitarian workers from the UN’s World Food Programme. “The gunmen were not in close proximity to the UN team during the strike,” the IDF said. “We emphasise that the UN workers were not the target of the operation and they were not harmed during the strike.”
• A separate strike was reported on Friday in the al-Mawasi area, which the International Red Cross said killed 22 people and damaged its offices. In response, the IDF said that “following an initial inquiry, there was no direct attack carried out by the IDF against a Red Cross facility. The incident will be quickly examined and its findings will be presented to our international partners.”
• “Intelligence-based, targeted operations” also continue in Rafah, the IDF’s primary are of operations, where the IDF said it uncovered weaponry, alongside tunnel shafts and underground terrorist infrastructure.
• In the city’s Tel Sultan neighbourhood, troops demolished a Hamas training complex and raided the offices of senior Hamas figures.
• On Sunday, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad fighters were targeted in buildings which previously served as UNRWA headquarters.

The north: On Saturday, the IDF reported that “An IAF aircraft conducted a precise strike in the Beqaa area in Lebanon in order to eliminate the terrorist Ayman Ratma, a central terror operative responsible for weapons supplies for the Hamas and Jamaa Islamiya terrorist organizations in Lebanon, as well as the development of terrorist infrastructure in the area… Ratma was eliminated due to his involvement in the promotion and execution of terrorist activities against Israel in the immediate future, as well as his involvement in advancing terrorist activity against Israeli civilians.”

• Two IDF reservists were injured yesterday, one lightly and one severely, in a Hezbollah anti-tank missile attack on Metula.
• Also over the weekend, a UAV crossed from Lebanon and fell in the area of Beit Hillel, with no injuries were reported. During the incident, an interceptor was launched toward the UAV, sounding rocket and missile sirens due to the possibility of falling shrapnel.
• On Saturday evening, the IDF said “IAF fighter jets struck a Hezbollah military structure and observation post in the area of Kfarkela. Additionally, a Hezbollah terrorist cell which had been identified by IDF troops was struck in the area of Taybeh.”
• The UK’s Daily Telegraph has meanwhile alleged that Hezbollah is using Beirut’s international airport to store weapons, including ballistic missiles, unguided artillery rockets, and laser-guided anti-tank guided missiles. Lebanese authorities have denied the accusations.

Context: After 261 days of war, and with 120 hostages remaining in Gaza (with an unknown number alive), Netanyahu remains adamant that although Israel is willing to do a partial deal for the return of some hostages, Israel will not agree to a deal explicitly providing for Hamas to remain in power. He continues to insist that the Israeli objective remains the full defeat of Hamas as a governing entity.

• Of the war in Gaza, Netanyahu said that “the high-intensity stage of the war is going to end. That is going to happen very soon,” he said.
• Netanyahu’s attitude to a hostage deal once more resulted in criticism from hostage families. The Hostages and Missing Families Forum said “we strongly condemn the prime minister’s statement in which he walked back from the Israeli proposal. This means he is abandoning 120 hostages and breaching the moral duty of the State of Israel to its citizens.”
• Netanyahu’s appearance on Channel 14 this weekend was his first Hebrew language TV interview since October 7th. He has previously faced criticism for failing to answer Israeli media questions and for preferring to engage with US networks. He also faced criticism for choosing to speak to Channel 14, widely considered a right-wing, partisan network.
• At one stage in the interview, Netanyahu was asked about the prospect of Israeli resettlement of parts of Gaza, a move supported by some on the ideological right. The question prompted cheers from the studio audience, though Netanyahu rejected the idea. “Settlement in Gaza is unrealistic and does not help achieve the war aims,” he said.
• Saad is considered the fourth-highest-ranking official in Hamas’s military wing, where he served as the chief operations officer who was tasked with building the wing’s military capabilities, and as the commander of its Gaza City Brigade.
• If confirmed, he would represent the most senior Hamas commander killed in several months, since the killing of Marwan Issa, deputy commander of the group’s military wing, in March. Saad was thought to have been present when Israel raided Gaza City’s Shifa Hospital in March but managed to flee.
• Gross’s death brings the total number of IDF troops killed since October 7^th to 665. Of them, 314 have been killed since the beginning of the ground invasion of Gaza.
• Of the use of UNWRA facilities, the IDF said that “this is another example of Hamas’ systematic exploitation of civilian infrastructure and the civilian population as a human shield for its terrorist activities.”

Looking ahead: Defence Minister Gallant began a US trip yesterday. Today he will meet with counterparts to discuss the southern and northern fronts. As he left Israel, he said “our ties with the United States are more important than ever. Our meetings with U.S. officials are critical to this war.”

• Netanyahu is anticipated to visit the US and address both Houses of Congress in late July

What’s happened: The IDF has announced the death of two reservists killed fighting in the Gaza Strip: Sergeants First Class Omer Smadga and Saadia Yaakov Dery of the Alexandroni Brigade. They were killed in a mortar attack in the central Gaza Strip where three other soldiers were severely injured.

• The IDF continues its combat operations against Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and other terrorist groups in Gaza. Ground troops are primarily operating in the south and centre of the Strip, with airstrikes taking place throughout.
• Joint operations between the IDF and Shin Bet have entailed the acquisition and elimination of individual Hamas operatives, generally commanders responsible for strategic capabilities. These have included a Nukhba commandoes and snipers who infiltrated southern Israel on 7^th October, and a drone operator known to have conducted numerous attacks on Israeli troops.
• Last night, the Israeli Air Force destroyed a Palestinian Islamic Jihad rocket launch site which had been placed within a shelter inside a humanitarian safe zone while the Nachal Brigade discovered a significant arms cache within a civilian home in Rafah.
• “Soldiers located inside a civilian residence large quantities of weapons hidden in wardrobes, including: grenades, explosives, a launcher and anti-tank missiles, ammunition and arms. In another scan made using, a drone, a tunnel shaft was located under a child’s bed, and in another room the soldiers located a passage in the wall that Hamas terrorist operatives had created in order to pass between residences in crowded neighbourhoods.”
• This indicates an ongoing pattern of terrorist groups embedding themselves within the Gaza Strip’s civilian and humanitarian infrastructure, risking high levels of collateral damage.
• Rafah remains the IDF’s primary operational focus in the Gaza Strip. The majority of Hamas operatives killed by Israeli Army ground troops were found in tunnels, and Hamas’s local tunnel system has been described as its “centre of gravity”.
• In the north, the IDF continues to strike Hezbollah commanders and military infrastructure in Lebanon, primarily in the south of the country. Yesterday, according to the IDF, “fighter jets struck two Hezbollah weapons storage facilities in the areas of Houla and Tallouseh, alongside Hezbollah military structures and terrorist infrastructure in the areas of Meiss El Jabal, Aitaroun, and Yaroun in southern Lebanon. Additionally, IDF artillery fired to remove threats in multiple areas in southern Lebanon.”
• Meanwhile, US Defence Secretary Austin has ordered that the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier and a warship had been ordered to extend their missions in the Mediterranean, as the US looks to support Israel with a two-carrier presence.

Context: With military operations in Gaza ongoing, there remain no immediate prospects for a hostage deal, with Hamas rejecting any proposal which does not explicitly and conclusively provide for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.

• 120 hostages remain in captivity in the Strip, with the Wall Street Journal estimating this week that only 50 remain alive. Israel has so far confirmed the deaths of 41 of the remaining hostages, but the US paper puts the number of dead at 66.
• “It seems like every week more hostages are dying or getting in danger or very sick,” head of the medical team for the Hostages and Missing Families Forum Hagai Levine told the paper.
• The deaths of the two IDF soldiers takes the total number of IDF soldiers killed since October 7^th to 664, 313 since the beginning of the ground operation in Gaza.
• The Israeli government continues to face severe pressure from a number of sources:
  • From protesters and hostage families to agree to a deal.
  • From the military echelon to properly prepare a scenario for the ‘Day After’ in Gaza now that fighting is drawing to a close. IDF spokesperson Hagari illustrated these concerns with unusually explicit public remarks in which he said that “To replace the people who are dealing with civilian services, the people who are distributing food or stealing the food, something else needs to be created that might grow. That is a decision for the political leadership, and the military will enact.”
  • From the US, following Prime Minister Netanyahu’s public claim earlier this week that Washington was withholding vital weaponry from Israel.
  • From within, as Netanyahu faces internal Likud and ultra-Orthodox rebellion over the so-called Rabbis’ Bill and efforts to formalise the exemption of the ultra-Orthodox from the military draft, and from Minister Ben Gvir over his desire to play a more influential role in the conduct of the war.

• On the northern front, Hezbollah leader Nasrallah threatens Israel with further escalation in which “no place” in Israel would be spared in a war with “no rules” and “no ceilings”.
• In recent weeks, there has been a ratcheting up of both Hezbollah attacks on Israel’s north, from which some 80,000 Israelis remained displaced, and in Israeli responses.
• According to data from Alma, between October 8^th 2023 and June 17^th this year, Hezbollah launched a total of 2,133 attacks on Israel, comprising rocket fire, drone attacks, anti-tank missiles and anti-aircraft guns. Of these, 47.5 percent were aimed at civilian targets.
• After Nasrallah also threatened Cyprus earlier this week, Nicosia has withdrawn its ambassador from Lebanon. Nasrallah said that “opening Cypriot airports and bases to the Israeli enemy to target Lebanon would mean that the Cypriot government is part of the war, and the resistance will deal with it as part of the war.” An EU spokesperson also hit out at Nasrallah, saying “any threats against our member state are threats against the EU”.
• With the US continuing to press for a diplomatic solution to prevent what it fears could escalate to an all-out regional war, Lebanese media reports US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein meeting with the speaker of the Lebanese parliament and Hezbollah ally Nabih Berri.

Looking ahead: IDF officials said this week that they expected operations in Rafah to be concluded within a month. Officials also warned, though, that they expected an IDF brigade would have to remain deployed along the Philadelphi Corridor moving forward to stem the tide of illicit weapons smuggled into Gaza from Egypt.

• The IDF also continues to raise the readiness of troops on the ground regarding the northern front. OC Northern Command Maj. Gen. Uri Gordin and IDF Operations Director Maj. Gen. Oded Basiuk this week approved operational plans for an Israeli offensive in Lebanon

What’s happening: The Israeli government is facing severe challenges on multiple fronts – security, diplomatic, and political.

Security – the north: Hezbollah leader Nasrallah yesterday gave a speech in which he warned that if Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah escalated to the point of all-out war, “no place” in Israel would be spared in a war with “no rules” and “no ceilings”.

• “The enemy knows well that we have prepared ourselves for the worst… and that no place… will be spared our rockets.”
• Nasrallah also threatened Cyprus, saying “opening Cypriot airports and bases to the Israeli enemy to target Lebanon would mean that the Cypriot government is part of the war, and the resistance will deal with it as part of the war.”
• Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides responded by insisting that Cyprus was not a party to the conflict, and was part of the solution, not the problem, of escalation on Israel’s northern front.
• With conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in the north ratcheting up, Defence Minister Gallant and IDF Chief of Staff Halevi yesterday held an operational situation assessment at the IDF’s Northern Command, together with the Head of the Northern Command and Commander of the Israeli Air Force.
• In public remarks, Gallant said “We are achieving readiness on land and in the air, strengthening our intelligence systems and preparing for every scenario. We must all remember that Hezbollah started a war against us on October 8th, a day after Hamas [attacked Israel], and since then, it has not stopped [attacking Israel]. We have an obligation to change the situation in the north, and to ensure the safe return of our citizens to their homes, and we will find a way to achieve this.”
• Visiting a northern aerial defence array, Halevi said “We of course have infinitely greater capabilities” than Hezbollah, “of which I think the enemy is only familiar with a few of them and will confront them at the right time… our test is to see that today we defend, tomorrow we win, the day after tomorrow we return the residents to a much safer reality, and with them, we also build and restore and make this beautiful area stronger than it was before the war.”

Security – Gaza: IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari yesterday gave a statement appearing to contradict the official Israeli war aim of the total defeat of Hamas.

• “To tell the public that there won’t be any terrorism in Gaza” after an Israeli victory, he said, “that there won’t be military operatives, that there won’t be a [single] rocket, that there won’t be a [single] armed man—is a lie. There will be terrorism in Gaza. Hamas is an idea. To replace the people who are dealing with civilian services, the people who are distributing food or stealing the food, something else needs to be created that might grow. That is a decision for the political leadership, and the military will enact.”
• The IDF continues operations in all parts of the Strip, with particular emphasis on Rafah, where “precise operations” continue to target the remaining two Hamas battalions in the city.
• Hagari’s comments indicate the IDF’s concurrence with the demand from Israel’s allies that it give urgent consideration to the question of the ‘day after’ the war, and to a non-Hamas civilian administration able to both combat Hamas’s return and provide for the needs of the civilian population.
• The US continues to push for a reformed Palestinian Authority playing a significant role in Gaza, though Netanyahu has continued to insist that Israel will not substitute ‘Hamastan’ for ‘Fatahstan’.
• Meanwhile, based on its successes in degrading Hamas capabilities, the IDF has decided to lift restrictions on Israeli communities in the Gaza periphery. Schools, businesses and factories, agricultural activity and public events, concerts and cultural activity and tourism will all return to something like normal.

Diplomatic – Israel-US: The fallout continues from Netanyahu’s public comments earlier this week accusing the US of withholding vital military aid from Israel.

• The White House responded with incredulity, saying that aside from one shipment of 2,000-pound bombs which had been suspended due to concerns over the weapons’ use in Rafah, it “genuinely [did] not know what he’s talking about.”
• The US then cancelled a high-level meeting set to cover both Iran and Israel’s operation in Rafah, leaving Minister Ron Dermer, a close Netanyahu confidante, and National Security Council Director Tzahi Hanegbi to travel to Washington without the most important element of their trip taking place.
• Israeli media reports today that Netanyahu’s broadside reflected a split between him and Dermer, on the one hand, and Gallant and Halevi on the other. The prime minister and Dermer seemingly concluded that the best way to extract greater support from Washington was by means of a public demand.

Political – domestic turmoil: Following the pulling from the Knesset of the so-called ‘Rabbis’ Bill’ on Tuesday, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox coalition partners Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ) are now said to be pushing for early elections.

• The Constitution, Law and Justice Committee and the Knesset plenum had been set to debate the bill, which provides for the creation of hundreds of jobs for municipal rabbis, and is seen as a personal priority of Shas leader Aryeh Deri.
• However, the bill faced significant opposition from within Netanyahu’s own Likud party. On Tuesday, Likud MKs Tally Gotliv and Moshe Saada were removed from the committee on the prime minister’s orders. There then followed an intervention from a number of Likud mayors opposed to the bill. Seeing the levels of Likud opposition to the bill, Netanyahu shelved its parliamentary debate.
• Meanwhile, Netanyahu yesterday traded blows with his National Security Minister, Itamar Ben Gvir, whom he accused of leaking state secrets.
• Netanyahu released a video in which he said “I demand of all the coalition partners—get a hold of yourselves. Rise to the enormity of the occasion. Now isn’t the time for petty politics. Now isn’t the time for legislation that jeopardises the coalition that is fighting for victory over our enemies.”
• The failure to progress the Rabbis’ Bill has seemingly persuaded the ultra-Orthodox parties that this government is incapable of achieving its grand prize of a bill to formalise the exemption of ultra-Orthodox men from being drafted into the IDF.
• The rebellion of Gotliv and Saada, together with the successful interventions of the Likud mayors, illustrates that Netanyahu no longer enjoys the command of his own party for which he has always been renowned.
• Economy Minister Nir Barkat, thought likely to challenge Netanyahu for the Likud leadership in the near future, has also sought to challenge the prime minister by announcing his opposition to the military draft bill as currently formulated.
• The Rabbis’ bill had first been shelved earlier in the year due to opposition from Benny Gantz and Gideon Saar. It was re-introduced after first Saar and then Gantz left the government.
• The Supreme Court blocked Deri’s appointment as a minister early in the tenure of the current government, on the grounds of his previous criminal convictions and an agreement he made as part of plea bargains not to seek high office again. He has since been included in the government as an observer, and continued to wield significant influence.
• Ben Gvir has long sought inclusion in the highest circles of decision-making on the war in Gaza. Before Netanyahu announced the dissolution of the war cabinet last week, the Jewish Power leader had pushed for a seat at the table.

Looking ahead: US envoy Amos Hochstein remains in the region to try to achieve a diplomatic resolution to increasingly intense cross-border fighting the US fears might develop into an all-out regional war.

• US and French efforts over the last eight months have so far failed to produce a breakthrough. 80,000 northern Israelis remain displaced, and Israel insists it will be forced to proceed with further operations, possibly including a ground invasion, to resecure the northern front.
• The Knesset’s summer session is set to end on July 24^th, until which time Netanyahu will seek to maintain his coalition.
• Early next week, Gallant and Defence Ministry Director General Maj. Gen. (res.) Eyal Zamir are scheduled to travel to the US for talks on military aid

In the north: Across Wednesday and Thursday, northern Israel suffered the heaviest barrages of Hezbollah rocket, missile, and drone fire so far.

• On Wednesday, some 215 rockets were fired on northern Israel, while yesterday at least 100 projectiles were fired, including 40 in a two-hour barrage.
• The IDF confirmed that five Hezbollah UAVs had penetrated Israeli airspace, and that Hezbollah had at one point launched nine drones at the Gailee in a single minute.
• About 300 sirens sounded in northern communities, while four people were injured in an incident adjacent to the community of Margoliot on the northern border. The incident included anti-tank missiles that seem to have hit a vehicle.
• As a result of an anti-tank projectile attack in the area of Manara, one IDF soldier was moderately injured and an additional soldier was lightly injured.
• In response, on Wednesday IAF fighter jets struck a launcher in the area of Hanine in southern Lebanon, and four terrorist infrastructure sites in the area of Yater.
• Lebanese media also reports at least seven casualties from an Israeli airstrike in the town of Jannata in the Tyre district.
• Hezbollah attacks continued this morning, with sirens sounding in communities in the north across the length of the border.

Gaza Strip: Several projectiles were also fired on Israel from the northern Gaza Strip last night. Some were intercepted by the IDF’s Aerial Defence Array, while others fell in open areas. No injuries were reported.

• In response, says the IDF, “aircraft and artillery struck the launch sites from which the projectiles were fired, as well as a weapons storage facility in the vicinity.”
• Troops operated in the Zeitoun area and Sabra neighbourhood yesterday, in which dozens of Hamas fighters were killed and 50 terrorist infrastructures destroyed. The IDF also destroyed an 800-metre Hamas tunnel, located just a kilometre from the Israeli border.
• The IDF also continues operations in the central Gaza Strip and in Rafah. In Rafah, “troops eliminated a number of terrorists and located large quantities of weapons and underground tunnel shafts. A number of explosive devices, as well as Hamas terrorist infrastructure sites, were located and destroyed by IDF ground troops. In one incident, a terrorist that was identified approaching IDF troops was eliminated in an aerial strike.”
• Earlier in the week, “troops eliminated a number of armed terrorist cells in close-quarters encounters in the [Rafah] area. IDF troops also located and destroyed structures rigged with explosives, as well as weapons, ammunition, military vests, and additional military equipment found in the area.”
• In the central Strip, troops killed a number of Hamas fighters on Wednesday, including one who took part in October 7^th.

Context: With the northern front now the most intense focus of kinetic activity, Israel is braced for even further escalation.

• Hitherto, the assessment had been that both sides wished to avoid all-out war, and that Hezbollah was content to keep hostilities at a level which diverted resources and attention from Gaza but stopped short of a full escalation.
• The calculus of Hezbollah’s Iranian patron, too, has traditionally been that Hezbollah’s massive reserve of rockets and missiles (far more sophisticated than Hamas’s) be held in reserve to deter any attack on Iran’s nuclear programme.
• While strikes in Syria attributed to Israel have attempted to stem the flow of weapons resupply to Hezbollah, the organisation is now seemingly on a more aggressive footing.
• On Wednesday night, Israel conducted a targeted strike on senior Hezbollah commander, Taleb Sami Abdullah. The IDF called Abdullah, the commander of the Nasr Unit, “one of Hezbollah’s most senior commanders in southern Lebanon.” He is understood to be the most senior Hezbollah commander killed in the last eight months, during which time he had been responsible for many attacks on northern Israel, particularly on the city of Kiryat Shmona.
• Senior Hezbollah official Hashem Saffieddine then said during Abdullah’s funeral that “our response after the martyrdom of Abu Taleb will be to intensify our operations in severity, strength, quantity, and quality… Let the enemy wait for us on the battlefield.”
• The large amounts of rocket, missile, and drone fire in concentrated time periods is significant in that it represents Hezbollah attempting to overwhelm Israel’s aerial defensive array.
• Whilst this has been a significant escalation, it represents only a fraction of Hezbollah’s capacity. They are thought to have stockpiled 150,000 rockets, including advanced precision munitions with heavy payloads, capable of targeting strategic sites deep into Israel.
• With much of the damage from Hezbollah projectiles coming in areas of nature and wildlife, the Israeli Parks Authority has said that over 11,000 acres of land has burned over the past two weeks, and nearly 15,000 acres since the start of the year. The fires are exacerbated by the heat wave Israel is currently experiencing.
• French and American efforts to secure a diplomatic solution to the conflict on Israel’s northern border have been ongoing since Hezbollah joined Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 8^th.
• While these efforts have so far been unsuccessful, French President Macron, speaking yesterday at the G7 summit in Italy, said that “With the United States we agreed on the principle of a trilateral [contact group], Israel, the United States and France to advance on the roadmap that we proposed and we will do the same with the Lebanese authorities.”
• French Ambassador to Israel Frédéric Journès told Israeli media “The big problem is ‘how do you start the negotiation?’ Here, it begins to be complicated because Israel says ‘we want to disassociate it with what is happening in Gaza,” Journès said, adding that Hizbullah refuses to agree to that.
• US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with Israeli counterpart Gallant this week. A Pentagon spokesperson said “We are concerned about an increase in activity in the north. We don’t want this to escalate to a broad regional conflict and we urge de-escalation.”

Looking ahead: The IDF is undertaking a series of exercises in which troops are trained for different combat frameworks in the northern arena.

• According to the IDF, the exercises included “combat scenario(s) at varying ranges, while emphasizing the capabilities of movement in complex terrain, advancement along mountainous routes, the activation of multi-faceted fire and combat in various terrain.”