What’s happened: Newly-appointed UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy yesterday continued his visit in Israel.

• After having met separately with Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Palestinian leadership on Sunday, Lammy yesterday met separately with President Herzog and Foreign Minister Katz and with the families of UK hostages. He also visited Yad Vashem. With Herzog, Lammy met with the family of Tamir Adar, who was murdered in Kibbutz Nir Oz on October 7^th and whose body remains captive in Gaza.
• Welcoming Lammy to Israel, Herzog said, “I have great appreciation for the fact that one of your first trips is to this region and to Israel. I think the fact that you won in such a landslide enables the United Kingdom to move forward in a very dramatic way, and be involved in new frontiers and new horizons.”
• He added, on Iran: “We are at war with an empire of evil that wants to undermine the stability of the world and is rushing to the bomb, undermining international trade, blocking trade routes… And of course trying to surround Israel by its proxies from all over. That is why there is no more just war. We are a nation seeking peace, and I believe that we must find peace with our neighbours. I know that Britain sees it as a very important point and I hope you have a very productive visit.”
• In response, Lammy replied “I hope that we see a hostage deal emerge in the coming days, and I am using all diplomatic efforts… I hope too, that we see a ceasefire soon, and we bring an alleviation to the suffering and the intolerable loss of life that we’re now seeing also in Gaza. So it’s in that spirit that I returned as Foreign Secretary, hoping to bring, and for the UK to do all it can to bring, peace and stability to this region, this most complex and challenging of regions at this time.”
• Foreign Minister Katz said on X (formerly Twitter): “I met today with the new UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy to discuss the war in Gaza, regional issues, and the urgent need to combat the Iranian threat. I told him that actions like the elimination of Mohammed Deif and continued military pressure on Hamas, along with a clear message from the UK and the world that any ceasefire is conditional on the release of all hostages, are the only ways to bring them home. We will continue to work together to strengthen the friendship between the UK and Israel.”

The south: Operations continue in Gaza. According to the IDF, “troops are continuing targeted, intelligence-based operational activity in the Rafah area. Over the past day, the troops eliminated terrorists in cooperation with the IAF [Israeli Air Force], dismantled tunnel shafts in the area, and struck Hamas terror infrastructure sites that posed a threat to the troops.”

• “Additionally, over the past day, IDF troops continued operational activity in the area of central Gaza and conducted targeted raids on terror targets in the area.”
• “Furthermore, over the past day, the IAF struck approximately 40 terror targets, including sniping posts, observation posts, Hamas military structures, terror infrastructure, and buildings rigged with explosives.”

The north: Yesterday, Hezbollah attacks continued, as they fired over 50 rockets at Kiryat Shmona and other northern Israeli communities.  Several rockets landed in Kiryat Shmona, causing damage but no reported casualties.

• At least three Hezbollah operatives were reportedly killed in IAF air strikes in southern Lebanon, while a Hezbollah commander was killed alongside a Syrian business with close connections to the Assad regime in an air strike in Syria close to the Lebanese border.
• According to the IDF, the IAF also struck Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure in the areas of Houla, Kfarkela, and Bani Haiyyan in southern Lebanon. In addition, IDF artillery struck in the areas of Blida, Deir Mimas, and Rmeish in order to remove a threat.
• The IDF also says that overnight, the IAF struck Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure in the areas of Houla, Kfarkela, and Bani Haiyyan in southern Lebanon.

Context: Lammy making Israel one of his first foreign visits since taking office is testament both to the strength and closeness of the Britain-Israel relationship and the UK’s continued concern over the fate of the hostages, and civilians affected by the war in Gaza.

• There is appreciation in Israel for Lammy visiting so soon, and for meeting with hostage families and keeping their plight high on the international agenda.
• Lammy’s Labour Party assumed office committed to a ceasefire in Gaza, the return of all Israeli hostages, and a renewed pursuit of a two state solution. Like his US counterparts, Lammy has also come out strongly against settler violence and settlement expansion in the West Bank.
• Recent reports have suggested that, contrary to previous suggestions, Labour will maintain the UK’s objection to the International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor’s application for arrest warrants for Israeli officials, including the prime minister.
• The concerns raised by Lammy are consistent with previous UK diplomatic perspectives, indicating that despite the change of government, UK policy has so far not shifted dramatically.
• The ongoing operations in Gaza come in parallel to an apparent split between Netanyahu, on the one hand, and Defence Minister Gallant and the security establishment, on the other, over how flexible Israel should be prepared to be to secure a hostage deal.
• Netanyahu is said to be insisting on Israel retaining control of the crucial Philadelphia corridor between Gaza and Egypt, and to preventing a return of northern Gazans to their former areas of residence.
• Reports suggest a possible compromise has been discussed in talks with Egyptian and other international mediators, allowing Israel to track and control the Philadelphia corridor without maintaining a physical presence there.
• 116 hostages kidnapped on October 7^th remain in captivity in Gaza: 102 men, 16 women, and 2 children. In addition to the 116 remaining, four other hostages are also in Gaza: two bodies, and two living hostages from three separate incidents in 2014. Israel will seek to have the two living hostages, Hisham al-Sayed and Avera Mengistu, included in any release.
• According to Israel at least 43 of the abductees are no longer alive and their bodies are being held by Hamas.
• Meanwhile, the continued assessment of IDF officials is that Hamas’s military chief of staff Mohammed Deif was killed in an air strike on Saturday morning.
• The action in the north continues weeks of intense Hezbollah fire on northern Israel, from where around 80,000 Israelis remain internally displaced and unable to return to their homes while the threat remains.
• While there are currently no signs of the diplomatic resolution for which American and French officials have worked for over nine months, the assessment remains that both Hezbollah and its Iranian patron are keen to maintain their war of attrition, but to keep it below the threshold of all-out war.
• However, recent attacks towards lower Galilee have increased concern over how deep into Israel Hezbollah’s fire is now reaching.
• On the diplomatic front, there remains hope that a successful hostage negotiation/ceasefire would also be respected by Hezbollah in the north .

Looking ahead: An additional Israeli delegation is set to depart for further hostage talks later this week.

• Israel remains on alert for possible retaliation to the strike on Deif, with officials vigilant against threats to Israeli targets around the world.

What happened: The Israeli assessment is that it is highly likely that Hamas’s military chief of staff and second most senior commander in Gaza, Mohamed Deif, was killed in a strike on Saturday.

• While confirmation of Deif’s death still awaits, Hamas did confirm that Rafa’a Salameh, the commander of its Khan Younis Brigade, was killed in the attack on a building in which he and Deif were operating in the area of Al-Mawasi in southern Gaza.
• Having confirmed with absolute certainty that Deif was in the compound, in a wooded area in Al-Mawasi owned by Salameh, the joint IDF-Shin Bet attack reportedly occurred in four stages:
  • First, a missile was fired, striking the part of the building intelligence indicated Deif was using.
  • A second missile, fired immediately after the first, then destroyed the whole building.
  • Third, a third strike targeted the building’s perimeter, with the aim of preventing Hamas rescue teams being able to reach and treat Deif.
  • Finally, bunker-buster bombs were deployed, exploding below ground, in a bid to destroy underground facilities intelligence assessed were situated beneath the building.
• On Saturday night, Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed the attack but remained circumspect on whether Deif had been killed.  “The State of Israel,” he said, “using the IDF and Shin Bet, attacked in Gaza in an attempt to assassinate Mohamed Deif and his deputy, Rafa’a Salameh. There is still no absolute certainty that the two were killed; either way, we will get to the entire Hamas leadership. This opportunity and others to act against the terrorists became possible because we rejected the many pressures, from within and from without, to end the war before achieving all the objectives.”
• Palestinian officials say that more than 90 others were killed in the attack, with Israeli counterparts claiming these numbers are inflated and likely to include a high proportion of terrorists.
• Elsewhere, newly appointed UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy paid his first visit to Israel yesterday. Holding talks with both Netanyahu in Jerusalem and the Palestinian leadership in Ramallah, Lammy called for a ceasefire in Gaza and for the return of all Israeli hostages, as well as stressing the UK’s commitment to the two state solution.
• “The death and destruction in Gaza is intolerable,” Lammy said. “This war must end now, with an immediate ceasefire, complied with by both sides. The fighting has got to stop, the hostages still cruelly detained by Hamas terrorists need to be released immediately and aid must be allowed in to reach the people of Gaza without restrictions.
• “I am meeting with Israeli and Palestinian leaders to stress the UK’s ambition and commitment to play its full diplomatic role in securing a ceasefire deal and creating the space for a credible and irreversible pathway towards a two-state solution. The world needs a safe and secure Israel alongside a viable and sovereign Palestinian state.“
• “Central to this is to see an end to expanding illegal Israeli settlements and rising settler violence in the West Bank. Here, in what should be a crucial part of a Palestinian state, alongside Gaza and East Jerusalem, we need to see a reformed and empowered Palestinian Authority.”

Context: Should Deif be confirmed to have died, his killing would be of huge significance to Israel’s ongoing war against Hamas. He was, along with Yahya Sinwar and the previously assassinated Marwan Issa, one of the three principle architects of October 7th, and of supreme symbolic importance to Hamas’s ‘resistance’ narrative.

• Deif has been on Israel’s most wanted list from the time of Hamas’s emergence in the 1990s, and has survived multiple previous assassination attempts.
• Writing on Sunday, Maariv’s Ben Caspit, a long-time critic of Prime Minister Netanyahu, said “this could prove to be the war’s tipping point. Mohammed Deif was the number-one Palestinian-Hamas symbol. Yes, more so than Yahya Sinwar. His assassination is a victory picture of sorts. It doesn’t mean that we have eradicated terrorism, and it doesn’t mean that Hamas has been annihilated. But it does mean that Israel has chalked up an important strategic achievement that, if handled correctly, can be turned into a victory picture.”
• Deif is considered largely responsible for transitioning Hamas from a militia to an organised military force capable of executing operations on the scale of October 7th.  He was also positioned by Hamas iconography as the “defender of Jerusalem”, having spearheaded 2021’s rocket fire on Jerusalem.
• Salameh, too, was a veteran of the 1990s and a high priority target, coordinating Hamas’s war effort with Sinwar and overseeing the captivity of the hostages. He is also known to have played a crucial role in the abduction of Gilad Shalit in 2006 and in building Hamas’s tunnel network in Khan Younis.
• On being apprised that Deif and Salameh had been definitively located and that an assassination operation was possible, Netanyahu is said to have responded with three questions before giving the go-ahead: what scale of ordinance would be required; what levels of civilian casualties could be expected; and was it considered likely that any hostages were in the vicinity.
• If confirmed that Deif and Salameh were killed, only four senior Hamas commanders would remain alive in the Strip: Hamas Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar; his brother Muhammad Sinwar, commander of the southern Gaza region; Gaza City Brigade Commander Izz al-Din al-Haddad; and Rafah Brigade Commander Mohammed Shabana. The latter has already survived two Israeli attempts on his life.
• With Hamas’s military structure having become fractured during ongoing Israeli operations in the Strip, and with field officers acting essentially independently, the immediate impact on the continued conduct of the war will likely be limited.
• The site of the attack, in southern Gaza’s Al-Mawasi, is not an area the IDF has designated a current combat zone. The assessment is that Deif chose to evade detection by operating in an area housing a large number of Gazan refugees in makeshift tents, and to use the surrounding population as a human shield.
• The impact of the suspected assassinations of two so senior figures on ongoing hostage negotiations remains to be seen. There are two potential, and opposing, outcomes: on the one hand, Hamas may use the strike as a pretext to scupper the talks; on the other, the loss of two such important commanders may increase the pressure Hamas feels to conclude a deal.
• There is some precedent: in March, talks continued after Israel assassinated Marwan Issa, deputy commander of Hamas’s military wing.

Looking ahead: If Deif is confirmed killed, Muhammad Sinwar and al-Haddad would both be candidates to replace him as chief of staff.

• Lammy is expected to complete his visit to Israel today, after meeting with President Herzog and some of the hostage families. He is using his visit to launch a further £5 million in government funding for UK-Med, a frontline UK charity providing relief to the victims of the war.
• The latest assessment is that despite the strike on Deif, hostage negotiations are set to continue

What’s happened: The IDF yesterday released its report into events at Kibbutz Beeri on October 7^th. The army, it found, “failed in its mission to protect the residents of Kibbutz Beeri.”

• The report, overseen by former commander of the Gaza Division Maj. Gen. (res.) Mickey Edelstein, represents a damning indictment of the speed and nature of the Israeli response, and the extent to which the residents of the kibbutz were left undefended for several hours.
• It concluded that the army was prepared only for “single intrusion” attacks, and was unready for the type of multi-location assault initiated by Hamas. It also found that despite kibbutz security personnel relaying information to the army early in the day, the IDF was not able to ascertain of what was unfolding until much later. The report also noted that, in some cases, troops waited for their commanders to arrive before engaging.
• Among the more shocking findings are that in some instances troops acted against protocol and treated or evacuated fellow soldiers before civilians.
• The slow pace of the IDF’s response meant that by 1330 in the afternoon, seven hours after Hamas terrorists first attacked the kibbutz, only 26 Israeli fighters were fighting around 340 terrorists. By the time further numbers arrived, the majority of the kibbutz’s victims had already been killed.
• The report found that “combat in the area during the initial hours was characterised by a lack of command and control, a lack of coordination, and a lack of order among the different forces and units. This led to several incidents where security forces grouped at the entrance to the kibbutz without immediately engaging in combat.”
• The report also pays tribute to the residents of Kibbutz Beeri and its own security team, who combined to hold the terrorists off for several hours.
• Of an incident in which tank fire was directed at the home of kibbutz resident Pessi Cohen, in which Hamas had taken a large number of residents hostage, the report finds that, to the best of its understanding, the tank fire did not cause deaths inside the house (rather, Hamas killed the hostages), but that further investigations were needed.
• IDF Spokesman Rear Admiral Hagari said of the report last night that, “the IDF failed in its mission to defend the residents of Kibbutz Beeri. It is difficult and painful for me to say this. We were not there for long hours of fighting. For hours, the residents of Beeri defended their families with their bodies, alone, facing the terrorists.”

In the south: The IDF continues operations against Hamas across the Gaza Strip. It has expanded an evacuation order to cover the entirety of Gaza City while issuing a notice saying it will be suspending inspections along two roads in Gaza City, in the north of the Gaza Strip, to allow civilians to reach humanitarian zones more easily and quickly as the city “will remain a dangerous combat zone”.

• The IDF’s 99^th Division has begun operating in Gaza City again, and located lathes used to manufacture weapons as well as cash said to belong to terrorist groups.
• In Rafah, troops of the IDF’s 162^nd Division have killed a number of gunmen and called airstrikes in on enemy targets.
• Following an attempted rocket attack on the southern communities of Holit, Kerem Shalom, Dekel Yated, Yevul, Sdei Avraham, and Avshalom, the IDF has responded with joint ground and aerial strikes to eliminate the responsible terrorists. Rockets were also fired from the northern district of Beit Hanoun which landed in open areas and did not cause any injuries.

In the north: Hezbollah continues its heavy barrage of Israel’s north.

• An IDF reservist, Sgt. First Class (res.) Valeri Chefonov, 33, was killed yesterday by a Hezbollah explosive drone near Kibbutz Kabri in the Western Galilee.
• This morning, several drones were identified crossing from Lebanon into Israeli territory and fell in the Western Galilee area. A number of other suspicious aerial targets were identified approaching Israeli territory from Lebanon and successfully intercepted by the IDF. An anti-tank guided missile fired from Lebanon has also struck the civilian community of Shtula, causing some damage to a local bed and breakfast.
• The IDF continues to strike Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, both proactively and in response to specific attacks. These strikes have targeted Hezbollah’s military infrastructure in the areas of Yarine and Ramyeh, and terrorist infrastructure sites in the areas of Jibbain and Tayr Harfa.
• During a situational assessment in the north yesterday, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi said: “When your enemy is struggling, don’t turn around… in order to dismantle the enemy further, and we are making it more difficult in order to increase the chances of reaching good conditions, to bring back the hostages, this is a very, very important matter.”
• A single rocket has been fired from Syria which landed in an open area in the Golan Heights, causing no injuries or damage. The IDF has responded by striking a Syrian military base in the southern town of Tasil. It is unclear which group was responsible for this rocket strike.

Context: Beeri was one of the deadliest sites of Hamas’s rampage of murder on October 7^th. From a community of around 1,000, 101 civilians were killed, along with 31 members of the security forces. 32 people were also kidnapped, 11 of whom remain in Gaza.

• The report is one of many the IDF has carried out, with further reports addressing the day’s events at other sites forthcoming. The aims of reports like these are to provide answers to the survivors and those who lost loved ones, for the IDF to learn from its mistakes, and to aid in the process of rebuilding trust between the army and the Israeli public.
• The damning verdict of the Beeri report has increased the pressure on the government to conduct a full national commission of inquiry into the state’s conduct in the leadup to, and on the day of, October 7^th. The IDF’s inquiries have a remit to investigate only the military’s response, and not failures at the political or intelligence levels.
• Defence Minister Gallant added to calls for a commission of inquiry yesterday, saying “it must investigate me, and the prime minister and the chief of staff.” Opposition leaders called yesterday for an immediate inquiry, newly-appointed Labour Party leader Yair Golan saying that the Beeri report was “a drop in the ocean” compared to what a state commission could find.
• The US, meanwhile, has released approximately half of the heavy bombs it has withheld from Israel since May over concerns that they would be used in densely populated parts of the Gaza Strip. Close to 1700 500-pound bombs are now en route to Israel.
• Chefonov’s death follows the deaths on Tuesday of husband and wife, Noa and Nir Barnes, from Kibbutz Ortal, who were killed when their car took a direct hit from a Hezbollah rocket in the northern Golan Heights.
• The assessment remains that both Iran and Hezbollah are keen to maintain their war of attrition, but to keep it below the threshold of all-out war.
• Whilst Hezbollah has a massive stockpile of rockets, it is running short of anti-tank missiles and is looking to Iran for resupplies.

Looking ahead: Ongoing operations in Gaza continue against the backdrop of hostage negotiations. The Israeli negotiation delegation arrived in Cairo last night to continue talks with Egyptian, Qatari, and US counterparts. Sources continue to express cautious optimism over the prospects for a successful conclusion.

What’s happening: Reports today suggest a level of cautious optimism over the prospects for a successful hostage release/ceasefire deal.

• Talks continued in Qatar yesterday, where Shin Bet Director Bar, Mossad Director Barnea, and Hostage Coordinator Maj. Gen. (res.) Alon all attended meetings alongside CIA Director Burns, Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani, and senior Egyptian officials.
• It is thought significant progress has been made in narrowing the gaps between Israel and Hamas’s positions, with particular breakthroughs regarding the IDF maintaining a presence in the Philadelphia corridor. Egypt and Qatar are said to have offered guarantees to prevent weapons smuggling into the Strip in return for Israel agreeing to vacate populated areas within the strategically essential corridor.
• Nonetheless, gaps remain over the inspection of Gazans returning to the northern Gaza Strip and over the duration of negotiations between the various stages of the deal. Hamas is thought to want the negotiations between phases one and two of the process to last a number of months, while Israel insists they take only a matter of weeks.
• Reports also suggest that Israel is not prepared to accommodate Hamas’s demand that northern Gazan residents be allowed to return to their former areas of residence without inspection. The prime minister’s office said “Israel will not concede inspection and preventing the movement of terrorists  and weapons to the northern Gaza Strip.”
• It is thought Israel has suggested that the UN play a role in the inspection process, but that it is not prepared to rely on the international body entirely.
• In parallel to the negotiations, military operations in the Strip continue. The IDF today said that “this week, the IDF and Shin Bet eliminated the terrorist Hassan Abu Kuik, Head of Operational Security in Hamas’ Internal Security Forces in the Gaza Central Camps. Hassan was a military operative, active in Hamas’ Emergency Bureau, and led numerous terror attacks against the State of Israel. In addition, the IDF eliminated the terrorist Naser Mehanna, a team commander in Hamas’ military intelligence.”
• Operations also continue against Hamas fighters located in UNRWA’s Headquarters in central Gaza. The IDF said, “over the past day, the troops located large quantities of weapons in the area of the headquarters, including explosive drones, grenades, explosive devices, snipers, mortar shells, rockets, and RPGs. In parallel, the troops directed an aerial strike on a combat compound in the area used by terrorists as a base to fire at IDF troops.”
• Intelligence-based operations also continue in Rafah, with dozens of Hamas fighters killed in the last day. Troops also dismantled several terror infrastructure sites rigged with explosives, as well as tunnel shafts in the area. In Shejaiya, troops destroyed tunnels and found equipment enabling fighters to remain underground for some time.
• Meanwhile, the death toll from Saturday’s strike on a school in Nuseirat has risen to at least 30, with Israel receiving international criticism for the incident. The IDF said: “Prior to the strike, numerous steps were taken in order to mitigate the risk of harming civilians, including the use of precise aerial surveillance and additional intelligence. The Hamas terrorist organisation systematically violates international law, exploiting civilian structures and population as human shields for its terror attacks against the State of Israel.”

Context: The so-called Biden proposal, based on an Israeli draft, which forms the basis of current talks, had already received the backing of both the US and UN. The breakthrough in this week’s talks stems largely from Hamas dropping its demand that a deal provide explicitly for a full ceasefire in the first phase.

• Analysts are suggesting that Hamas is feeling the pressure from the IDF’s intense operations in Gaza, and that awareness of the growing precariousness of its own position has led it to take a more flexible position in this round of talks.
• Its desire for a longer duration for negotiations between phases one and two of the process is thought to reflect a wish to buy time to resupply and refortify its position.
• IDF Chief of Staff Halevi on a visit to troops in central Gaza yesterday, said, “we apply military pressure in various ways. What we are doing in Rafah is different from what you are doing here, and what you are doing here is different from what is happening right now in Shejaiya or in the mission along the corridor or in the security area along the border.”
• “What is the common denominator between the different places? The common denominator is determination, the common denominator is a very high-quality way of doing these things and in the end, we go on the missions to destroy as much [terrorist] infrastructure as possible, to eliminate as many Hamas operatives as possible, to eliminate as many commanders as possible. In the end, it reduces Hamas’ capabilities, allows us to advance with the achievements, allows us to carry out a very important mission: pressure – we will continue operating to bring home the hostages.”
• There are also suggestions that domestic pressure in Gaza against Hamas is beginning to build. “An ever-increasing number of Gaza residents have mustered the courage to speak their mind on social media and even mainstream media outlets,” notes Yediot Ahronot  analyst Avi Issacharoff  today. “Hamas’s popularity in the West Bank might be at peak levels, but the impression is that things are changing in the Gaza Strip. The numerous IDF operations in Gaza City, Rafah and Khan Yunis have repeatedly displaced Palestinians. That has created anger and frustration.”
• The presence of the full senior Israeli delegation in Qatar is said to reflect the understanding that this round of negotiations is different, and the prospect of a deal more realistic.
• Defence Minister Gallant added to the cautious optimism by saying yesterday that “a limited window of opportunity has been opened before us to act on our ethical and moral duty to get the hostages back.” Of this significance of a successful deal, Gallant added that “The conditions that will be created in the wake of the deal will advance our national and security interests. Whereas the risks that might be created—the IDF and the security forces know how to overcome.”
• Optimism is tempered by an awareness that Hamas leader Sinwar may still look to sabotage an agreement, concluding that keeping the hostages as a Hamas asset is his best insurance against his own survival.
• The readiness of Netanyahu to conclude a deal, too, is far from certain, while far-right elements within the government have already demonstrated fierce opposition to a deal. Netanyahu has received assurances from both Benny Gantz and Opposition Leader Lapid, that they would support the government with a safety net to guarantee a deal.
• If the deal progresses, Netanyahu will likely face the greatest pressure once it becomes clear which Palestinian security prisoners are set to be released as part of the deal, as among them will be unrepentant terrorists guilty of the murder of Israeli citizens.
• Each instance of exposing Hamas tunnels in Gaza is significant, with recent reports suggesting that despite IDF success in other aspects of removing Hamas as a functioning military authority, a thorough decommissioning of the tunnels will take much more time.

Looking ahead: The Israeli security cabinet is set to meet today to discuss the progress made in negotiations, with more Israeli officials set to join the delegations in Egypt and Qatar.

• Hostage families and their supporters are marching from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. They are expected to reach the prime minister’s office on Saturday.

What’s happened: A husband and wife, Noa and Nir Barnes, from Kibbutz Ortal, were killed driving home yesterday afternoon when their car took a direct hit from a Hezbollah rocket in the northern Golan Heights.

• The rocket set the car on fire, with rescue services unable to save them. They leave behind three children.
• Hezbollah fired a barrage of around 40 rockets yesterday, mostly targeting IDF military sites on the Golan. Whilst some rockets were intercepted, other landed in open areas, causing several fires.
• This latest escalation was in retaliation for the death of Yasser Nimer Qarnabash, a Hezbollah operative who was killed earlier in the day in an air strike in Syria, along the Damascus-Beirut road.
• In response to the rocket fire on the Golan, the IDF attacked two Hezbollah anti-aircraft facilities, one deep inside Lebanon and the other in southern Lebanon.
• Golan Regional Council Head Uri Kellner told Army Radio this morning: “I think that we need to request and to demand: We aren’t prepared to accept this situation in which we’ve been turned into some sort of playground for the enemy. The Golan Regional Council neither was nor will it be evacuated. But this is our unequivocal demand: for them to defend and allow ongoing life here.”
• In the latest efforts at psychological warfare, Hezbollah released another video of drone footage highlighting numerous sensitive IDF military sites on the Golan.

Context: There have been several recent days of intense Hezbollah fire in the north. For example, last Thursday they launched over 150 rockets. These attacks are becoming more sustained and have reached into the lower Galilee.

• The assessment remains that both Iran and Hezbollah are keen to maintain their war of attrition, but to keep it below the threshold of all-out war.
• Whilst Hezbollah has a massive stockpile of rockets, it is running short of anti-tank missiles and is looking to Iran for resupplies.
• According to the IDF, Qarnabash was involved in the weapons smuggling from Iran, through Syria. He was also a former bodyguard to Hezbollah leader Nasrallah, making the strike personal.
• The targeted strike on Qarnabash is the latest example of Israeli intelligence identifying a senior Hezbollah figure and then using precise munitions to target him.
• The IDF is taking a holistic approach to the weapons smuggling, targeting every stage of Hezbollah efforts to restock weapons from Iran. This includes the supply chain, storage, the launching cells, and their commanders.
• Israeli media reports that as a result of several recent targeted attacks, Nasrallah has given instruction for commanders to stop using their mobile phones, which can be tracked.
• According to Hezbollah, 367 of their fighters have now been killed, with dozens more likely injured.
• Along with the two civilian deaths there was an additional IDF casualty in Gaza. First Sgt. Tal Lahat, a 21-year-old resident of Kfar Saba was killed by a sniper yesterday in the central Gaza Strip. Lahat served with the Maglan Unit in the IDF Commando Division
• The IDF remains deployed in southern and central Gaza. Troops have now been operating in Shejaiya for the last 12 days. According to the IDF they have killed over 150 terrorists, discovered and destroyed 6 tunnels and captured a large array of weapons.
• In addition, IDF troops conducted a counterterrorism operation against Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists who were operating inside UNRWA’s Headquarters and using it as a base to conduct attacks on IDF troops in the central Gaza Strip.
• According to the IDF, “after a defined corridor was opened to facilitate the evacuation of civilians from the area, IDF troops conducted a targeted raid on the structure, eliminated terrorists in close-quarters combat, and located large amounts of weapons in the area.”
• Meanwhile, the IDF are also continuing a “targeted, intelligence-based operational activity in the Rafah area in southern Gaza. Over the past day, the troops eliminated a number of terrorists, located weapons, and dismantled terrorist infrastructure in the area.”
• Hostage negotiations have been resumed. The resumption was possible due to Hamas rescinding its earlier position insisting on an explicit Israeli commitment to a ceasefire. Some are interpreting this as proof that the sustained military campaign in Gaza is putting significant pressure on Hamas and its military commanders.

Looking ahead: The fighting in Gaza is soon expected to transition to the third phase which will require a smaller IDF presence. The focus will be on targeting senior Hamas commanders, cells planning attacks and attempts to reconstitute fighting units.

• With the renewal of hostage negotiations, there is hope that a deal in the south could help bring quiet to the north too.
• In the north, with each side seeking to re-establish their deterrence, the risk of a significant escalation remains in the balance.

The south: Over recent days, amid cautious optimism over a potential hostage deal, Israeli forces have continued to operate across the Gaza Strip.

• On Saturday, at least 16 people died in a strike on a school in Nuseirat. The IDF said the school, as well as sheltering displaced Gazans, was being used as a Hamas hideout and operational base for planning attacks against Israeli forces in the area.
• The IDF said: “Prior to the strike, numerous steps were taken in order to mitigate the risk of harming civilians, including the use of precise aerial surveillance and additional intelligence. The Hamas terrorist organisation systematically violates international law, exploiting civilian structures and population as human shields for its terror attacks against the State of Israel.”
• The IDF reported yesterday that, acting on intelligence, the Israeli Air Force struck a complex inside of which terrorists were operating and hiding in the area of another school building in Gaza City. The IDF also struck a Hamas weapons manufacturing facility embedded by Hamas in the area of the school.
• Also in Gaza City, “following intelligence indicating the presence of Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorist infrastructure, operatives, weapons, and investigation and detention rooms in the area of Gaza City, including in the UNRWA headquarters, the IDF and Shin Bet began a counterterrorism operation in the area.”
• The IDF also revealed that soldiers from the Paratroopers Reconnaissance Unit have been operating in the Shejaiya area over the past week. “The soldiers have been locating large quantities of weapons, destroying dozens of booby-trapped buildings and eliminating terrorist cells in close-quarters encounters.”
• Also in Shejaiya, “troops raided and destroyed a combat compound and a command and control centre of Hamas terrorists located in schools and a clinic that were converted from civilian use to terrorist purposes.”
• “During the searches in the compound, soldiers of the Rotem Battalion located and destroyed a weapons production site and dozens of weapons including: mortars, machine guns, grenades and intelligence documents… hidden alongside equipment and UNRWA uniforms.”
• Troops and air force planes also operated to eliminate more than 30 Hamas fighters who posed a threat to soldiers in the area of Rafah. Troops also located tunnel shafts and confiscated weapons in the area. In the areas of Khan Younis and Gaza City, two ready-to-use launch sites aimed at Israeli territory were struck by the IDF.

The north: 20 rockets crossed from Lebanon towards the Lower Galilee yesterday. As sirens sounded across the north, the IDF’s Aerial Defence Array also successfully intercepted a suspicious aerial target. No injuries or damage were reported.

• Sirens also sounded Sunday, as around 20 projectiles crossed from Lebanon towards the Meron area. Fire and Rescue services fought to extinguish blazes caused by the launches.
• Two anti-tank missiles were also launched from the area of Ayta Ash Shab in southern Lebanon toward the area of Shtula. The air force carried out a strike on the source of the missile fire. Later on Sunday, two further anti-tank missiles were fired towards the area of Zar’it in northern Israel. An IDF soldier was lightly injured and evacuated to hospital.
• The IDF also struck a military structure in the area of Maaroub and terrorist infrastructure in the area of Naqoura. Overnight Sunday, the air force then struck a Hezbollah military site in the area of Jabal Tourah, a weapons storage facility in the area of Qabrikha, a military structure in the area of Tallouseh, and Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure sites in the areas of Houla and Ayta ash Shab in southern Lebanon.
• The air force also killed Hezbollah fighter Mustafa Hassan Salman in the area of Qlaileh in southern Lebanon. According to the IDF, Salman was “an operative in Hezbollah’s Rockets and Missiles Unit, who took part in the planning and execution of numerous terror attacks against the State of Israel.”
• Defence Minister Gallant held a security assessment in the north on Sunday. “These are critical days in terms of exercising our power against an enemy [Hezbollah] that only responds to force,” he said. “Hezbollah and Palestinian terrorist organizations have lost 450 [fighters] – 15 commanders at the level of brigade commanders or above, were eliminated. This includes 3 division commanders and makes up for over 50 percent of Hezbollah’s total number of commanders in southern Lebanon. This is very significant.”
• In other remarks later, he continued: “Even if we reach agreement for a hostage deal, and I very much hope that we will be able to achieve it – it does not bind us on what happens here, unless Hezbollah reaches a framework or agreement. Even if there is a ceasefire there [in the south], here [in the north] we will continue fighting and doing everything necessary to bring about the desired result [bringing Israeli communities home safely].”

Context: Parallel to the ongoing fighting in Gaza, talks have begun in Cairo aimed at securing a hostage release/ceasefire deal. Shin Bet director Bar arrived in the Egyptian capital yesterday, the Israeli delegation also including Director of the Political-Security Staff in the Defence Ministry Shalom, Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories Maj. Gen. Aliyan, Strategy and Third-Circle Director Maj. Gen. Toledano, and Mossad representatives.

• US National Security Council Coordinator McGurk and CIA Director Burns also arrived in Egypt, where they will meet with Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate Director Abbas Kamel.
• With Prime Minister Netanyahu’s far-right government colleagues, Ministers Ben Gvir and Smotrich, opposing a hostage deal and threatening to quit the government, Opposition Leader Lapid yesterday echoed Benny Gantz in offering to support Netanyahu in the pursuit of a deal.
• “Netanyahu doesn’t need to choose between a hostage deal and his continued tenure as prime minister” Lapid said. “Let him make the deal. If Smotrich and Ben Gvir quit, he’ll get a safety net from me. This isn’t an easy statement [to make]. This isn’t an easy decision. Netanyahu is a terrible, failed prime minister, and he is to blame for the October 7 disaster, but the most important thing is to get the hostages back home. A hostage deal has [the support of] a large majority in the public; it has a large majority here in the Knesset; it needs to happen. We are repeating our offer of a political safety net to Netanyahu to make the deal now.”
• Meanwhile, A report from Channel 12’s Amit Segal, a reporter known to have close ties with the prime minister’s office, suggests that despite the IDF’s achievements during the course of the war in degrading Hamas’s military capabilities, its vast, labyrinthine network of tunnels remains largely intact.
• Despite killing what the latest assessments number as 16,000 Hamas personnel, and successfully reducing its capacity to fire long and medium-range rockets, as well as Kornet and other anti-tank missiles, tunnels remain a threat all over the Strip. This includes tunnels reaching close to the Israeli border.
• Segal suggests that the tunnel network remains intact in the refugee camps in the central Strip and in most of Rafah and Shejaiya, and that damaged tunnels in Khan Younis have been largely repaired. Crucially, cement factories used to produce material for building tunnels seem to be operational.

Looking ahead: Hostage negotiations in Cairo will continue in the coming days.

• US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf will also visit the region this week, traveling to the UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Israel, and the West Bank. A State Department statement said, “the assistant secretary will meet with government officials on continued diplomatic efforts to achieve a ceasefire agreement, secure the release of all hostages and ensure humanitarian assistance is distributed throughout Gaza. She will also have further discussions on the post-conflict period in a way that builds lasting peace and security.

What’s happened: There is cautious optimism over the potential for a hostage/ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, with both sides seemingly closer to a mutually agreeable arrangement than at any point since the last deal was reached in November 2023. However, despite progress, significant gaps remain.

• The optimism began on Friday, when Mossad Director Barnea returned from a meeting in Qatar with Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani with news of Hamas’s response to the current terms.
• The current proposal aligns with the broad outline of what has become known as the ‘Biden Plan’, despite it originating from Israeli officials. The plan would result in a three-stage process:
  • In stage one, a “full and complete” six-week ceasefire would be in effect, during which 18-31 women, elderly, and wounded from among the hostages would be released. The IDF would continue to withdraw from populated areas of Gaza and allow for the return of (some) displaced northern Gazans to their areas of residence.
  • After 16 days of stage one, negotiations would take place for stage two, during which remaining male hostages would be released. Israel, for its part would release Palestinian security prisoners currently held in Israeli jails.
  • In stage three, any remaining hostages would be released, including the bodies of those who have already died. A process of reconstruction would begin in Gaza.
• Netanyahu last night released a list of Israeli non-negotiable demands, sparking anger both in Israel and amongst negotiators from mediating countries. Netanyahu’s four points were:
  • “Any deal will allow Israel to resume fighting until all of objectives of the war have been achieved.”
  • “There will be no smuggling of weapons to Hamas from Egypt to the Gaza border.”
  • “There will be no return of thousands of armed terrorists to the northern Gaza Strip.”
  • “Israel will maximize the number of living hostages who will be released from Hamas captivity.”
• Opposition leader Lapid said, “I have one response to the announcement from the Prime Minister’s Office: What is it good for? We are at a critical moment in the negotiations, the lives of the hostages depend on it; why issue such provocative messages? How does it contribute to the process?”
• The government’s far-right elements responded angrily to talk of a deal, though Benny Gantz, whose National Unity faction recently left the government, swiftly offered Netanyahu a parliamentary safety net in the event a “responsible proposal” is reached.
• Tens of thousands of Israelis yesterday joined in a ‘Day of Disruption’, in a bid to compel the government to successfully conclude a deal. In echoes of last year’s protests against the government’s judicial reforms, around 150 prominent high-tech companies announced they had given permission for employees to miss work to join the demonstrations.
• Thousands marched on the prime minister’s residence in Jerusalem. Demonstrators also blocked multiple highways, and protested outside the homes of government personnel, including Defence Minister Gallant, Foreign Minister Katz, and Knesset Speaker Ohana.
• In a striking display of protest, Einav Zangauker, the mother of hostage Matan, suspended herself in a cage hanging from a Tel Aviv bridge.
• “There is a deal on the table that can save lives, and all of us,” she said. “I want Matan at home, I want all the hostages at home now… I want to tell Netanyahu: The keys to this cage and all the other cages are in your hands. For nine months, you have abandoned the hostages. Netanyahu — stop dragging your feet. We want them at home and it’s up to you to bring them home.”

Context: Israel has now marked nine months since the October 7th massacre.

• 251 people were kidnapped that day, whilst 116 remain in captivity of them 102 men, 16 women, 2 children. In addition to the 116 remaining, four other hostages are also in Gaza: two bodies, and two living hostages from three separate incidents in 2014. Israel will seek to have the two living hostages, Hisham al-Sayed and Avera Mengistu, included in the phase one release.
• According to Israel at least 43 of the abductees are no longer alive and their bodies are being held by Hamas.
• So far, 135 abductees have been released, of whom 108 are Israelis and 24 are foreign nationals. Seven hostages were rescued, and 16 murdered hostages have been located by IDF forces and their bodies returned to Israel. Three abductees were mistakenly shot by IDF forces; their bodies were returned to Israel.
• Due to the animosity and lack of trust there remain numerous points for clarification. At its core for Israel will be what provisions will be in place if Hamas abrogate the agreement – that will justify them renewing the fighting.  For Hamas the opposite, if they do the deal, what guarantees that Israel won’t kill Sinwar as soon as he steps out of a tunnel.
• Further obstacles include:
  • The explicitness – or, conversely, the vagueness – by which a permanent end to the fighting in Gaza is provided for. Hamas seems to have moved some way from insisting it be explicitly provided for in the terms of an agreement, to accepting that it will be dealt with in negotiations during the phases. Israel, however, will seek to insist that it be able to respond militarily to any Hamas violation of the terms of the ceasefire.
  • The number of Palestinian prisoners to be released, and the identity of them. Israel is concerned about releasing murderous terrorists, some of whom will not be allowed to return to the West Bank. There is speculation that the deal could include high-profile prisoners like Marwan Barghouti, and over whether Israel will have a veto on releasing specific prisoners.
  • Whether the Israeli withdrawal from populated areas in Gaza would include its presence in the Netzarim Corridor, considered vital to thwarting the reorganisation of Hamas as a fighting force, and the Philadelphia Corridor, which effects their ability to rearm.
  • How will Israel balance allowing displaced northern Gazans to return to their former areas of residence with preventing terrorists from moving north?
  • The status of the buffer zone between Israel and Gaza, and the right of Gazans to access it.
  • Whether a provisional ceasefire in the first phase includes Israel ceasing its intelligence flights over Gaza.
• There is further speculation that if a deal is reached with Hamas in the south, it will also be honoured by Hezbollah in the north.

Looking ahead: It is thought that the negotiations will last around three weeks, with difficulties remaining in communications between Hamas leader in Gaza Sinwar, the foreign leadership, and the negotiating teams.

• Mossad director Barnea is scheduled to meet on Wednesday in Qatar with the Qatari prime minister, CIA director Burns, and the director of Egyptian intelligence.

What’s happened: Israeli Defence Minister Gallant has authorised providing Israeli electricity to Gaza’s water desalination plant. Without this plant being operational, there is a danger that the lack of safe drinking water will provoke a further humanitarian crisis in the Strip.

• Reports suggest that two weeks ago, Gallant gave the green light to the Israel Electric Corporation to do this via COGAT. The desalination plant is operated by the UN and the Palestinian Water Ministry, which is ostensibly separate from Hamas.
• Meanwhile, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi spoke yesterday on the progress made in Rafah. Of Hamas’s Rafah brigade, he said: “We are counting what we saw with our eyes: 900 killed, among them commanders. And the reason that we are still here, week after week, is because of the effort to destroy the infrastructure. We are exhausting the other side and we are completing our tasks. There is a lot of will, there is a lot patience and persistence, and the results will speak for themselves.”
• IDF operations in the Strip continue, especially in the areas of Shejaiya, Rafah, and central Gaza. The IDF reports that “in the area of Shejaiya, IDF troops eliminated terrorists, located weapons, and dismantled terror infrastructure sites. Over the past day, the IAF struck and dismantled over 50 terror infrastructure sites. Moreover, during targeted raids, IDF troops located operational tunnel shafts and weaponry, including AK-47 rifles, grenades, magazines, and additional military equipment.”
• “Furthermore, IDF troops continue operational activities in central Gaza, where terrorists who posed a threat to IDF troops were eliminated in IAF strikes.”
• “The IDF is continuing a targeted, intelligence-based operational activity in the Rafah area. In cooperation with IDF ground troops, the IAF dismantled several terror infrastructure sites and eliminated terrorists in the area.”
• The IDF yesterday announced that two soldiers had died fighting in the Strip on Monday. Master Sgt. (res.) Nadav Elchanan Knoller, 30, and Maj. (res.) Eyal Avnion, 25, were killed during operations in central Gaza, The two deaths bring the total number of IDF casualties since October 7^th to 674. Of these, 320 have been killed since the beginning of the ground operation in Gaza.
• Yesterday the IDF targeted over 30 sites in the Strip, with fighter jets, attack helicopters, and drones supporting ground forces.
• Overnight Monday, the IDF also targeted a series of airstrikes on Khan Yunis, having first instructed the civilian population to move to humanitarian zones. The strikes targeted areas from which Palestinian Islamic Jihad fired a barrage of 20 rockets at Israel on Monday.

Context: The IDF continues to move away from the high intensity phases of fighting in Gaza, and towards the war’s Phase Three.

• As it does so, it is looking to learn from previous experiences in both Gaza and Lebanon, where permanent troop presences have given Israel’s enemies the opportunity to surprise its forces.
• Instead, this phase will see the IDF withdraw from most civilian areas, and focus on targeted, intelligence-based raids against senior Hamas commanders, terror cells planning imminent attacks, and any cells looking to reconstitute Hamas’s fighting force.
• While withdrawing from most areas, the IDF will look to hold the Netzarim and Philadelphi corridors, and to stabilise the Israel-Gaza border. The Netzarim corridor essentially bisects the Strip, from Kibbutz Beeri to the Mediterranean Sea. The control of the Netzarim ensures the IDF’s medium-term control of the Strip, prevents Hamas from redeploying in the north, and incentivises Hamas to agree to a hostage deal with the return of northern Gazans to their home areas a feature.
• However, leaving troops in this corridor potentially exposes them to attacks from both northern and southern Gaza.
• Despite the IDF’s many operational achievements in Gaza, it acknowledges that Hamas retains the ability to fight but stresses that it now does so as a guerilla force rather than through organised military brigades.
• The IDF also estimated this week that around 1.9 million of the Gaza Strip’s 2.5 million population were currently residing in designated humanitarian zones.
• With talks over a hostage deal currently stuck, there is hope that the move to Phase Three of the war might satisfy Hamas’s demand that any hostage release accompany and ‘end’ to the war. While insisting that Phase Three does not signal the end of the war, there is some hope that Hamas might concede that the end of high-intensity fighting satisfies its conditions.
• In parallel, there remains high concern over the prospect of war with Hezbollah in the north, though there is hope that if a hostage and ceasefire arrangement is reached in the south, it could also be honoured in the north as well, preventing a wider conflagration.
• Reports from the US this week alleged that the military establishment is prepared to call a full ceasefire if doing so would result in the successful release of the hostages, but that Prime Minister Netanyahu is opposed.
• Referring to the sources who spoke to the New York Times, Netanyahu said “I don’t know who those unnamed parties are, but I’m here to make it unequivocally clear: it won’t happen… We will end the war only after we have achieved all of its goals, including the elimination of Hamas and the release of all our hostages.”
• The IDF also responded, saying it would “continue fighting Hamas across the Gaza Strip,” “alongside continuing to improve our readiness for a war in the north, and defending all of our borders.”
• COGAT reported 303 trucks carrying humanitarian goods were transferred to Gaza yesterday, 264 through the Kerem Shalom Crossing and 39 via the Erez Crossing.

Looking ahead: The army is preparing to place underground sensors along the border with Egypt, to prevent Hamas and other groups from re-digging smuggling tunnels which the IDF has destroyed.

• Israel is also looking to upgrade the Rafah crossing, through which the bulk of Hamas’s arms smuggling has taken place in recent years.
• Netanyahu is still expected to travel to the US to address both Houses of Congress at the end of the month, when he is now also expected to meet with President Biden.

The north: Yesterday and today northern Israel has come under heavy attack from Hezbollah. Unconfirmed reports suggest that over 200 missiles and UAVs have been been launched so far.

• The escalation follows the IDF yesterday killing Muhammad Neamah Naser, commander of Hezbollah’s Aziz Unit which is responsible for firing from southwestern Lebanon at Israeli territory.
• In response, Hezbollah fired over 100 rockets towards the Nefah base headquarters of the Golan Division yesterday afternoon. Other rockets were fired at the headquarters of the 769th Brigade in Kiryat Shmona, the Kela base, and the Zerait outpost.
• Sirens sounded in northern Israel, as some of the rockets were intercepted, some fell in the Kiryat Shmona area, and the majority fell in open areas. No injuries were reported, though fire fighters had to extinguish a number of blazed caused by falling rockets.
• Overnight, IDF fighter jets struck Hezbollah terror targets in southern Lebanon, including a military structure in the area of Chihine and three terrorist infrastructure sites in the area of Blat. In addition, IDF soldiers fired in order to remove a threat in the area of Chebaa in southern Lebanon.
• Yesterday also saw an off-duty Israeli soldier killed in a stabbing attack at a shopping mall in the northern city of Karmiel. Sgt. Aleksandr Iakiminskyi managed to kill the assailant, later named as Jawwad Omar Rubia, an Israeli citizen from the nearby Arab town of Nahf, before collapsing and later succumbing to his injuries. A second soldier was injured in the attack.

Palestinian arena: Two IDF soldiers were killed fighting in Gaza yesterday. In separate incidents, Cpt. Elay Elisha Lugasi, 21, a team commander in the 7th Armored Brigade’s 75th Battalion, was killed fighting in Shejaiya and Cpt. Roy Miller, 21, a platoon commander in the Givati Brigade’s Rotem Battalion. Other troops were injured in both attacks.

• An anti-aircraft missile launched from the Gaza Strip struck a home in the evacuated southern Israeli community of Kfar Maimon yesterday. Damage was caused but no injuries were reported.
• The IDF said it had carried out airstrikes in Rafah, as well as drone strikes in the Netzarim Corridor, killing several Hamas operatives.
• In Shejaiya, the IDF said it had “destroyed tunnels routes in the area and eliminated dozens of terrorists in close-quarters combat, with tank fire, and in aerial strikes. In one incident, IDF troops eliminated seven terrorists at close quarters.”
• Meanwhile, the Mossad released a brief statement yesterday confirming that Israel was studying Hamas’s latest response to hostage release/ceasefire proposals. The terms of the proposal remain those outlined by President Biden in May – a three-stage process leading to the release of all hostages. Hamas has continued to insist that proposals do not explicitly enough provide for the end of the war in Gaza.
• Elsewhere, on the Palestinian front the IDF announced yesterday that on Tuesday it carried out a strike on four terror operatives who were a significant part of terrorist infrastructure in Nur Shams. Muhammad Shehade, Muhammad Kanouah, Yazid Shafa, and Namer Ibrahim were killed after being identified attempting to plant explosives designed to attack IDF soldiers operating in the area.
• In the West Bank, Israeli Civil Administration officers and security forces yesterday dismantled an illegal Jewish settlement that had recently been constructed on Oz Zion Hill, in the area of Giv’at Asaf. Troops came under attack from masked Israelis who smashed the windows of an IDF truck and hurled explosives.
• IDF Chief of Staff Halevi called it “a severe, violent incident, that must be denounced and condemned. The law must be quickly and swiftly exacted upon the rioters who attacked the security forces as they attempted to carry out their mission”.

Context: Incidents across the last few days indicate a further ratcheting up of tensions in Israel’s north, where Hezbollah continues to insist that its operations against Israel are tied to the continuation of fighting in Gaza. On Tuesday, Hezbollah deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qassem insisted that “If there is a ceasefire in Gaza, we will stop without any discussion.”

• There is therefore hope that if a successful deal is reached between Israel and Hamas, quiet might return to the northern front, a diplomatic resolution to Hezbollah’s border claims implemented, and the nearly 80,000 Israelis displaced from homes in the north allowed to return.
• The failure to secure a deal with Hamas for far, however, is leading to splits between Prime Minister Netanyahu and the military and security establishments. The latter see securing a deal as the best way to prevent a destructive war with Hezbollah, and responded angrily to Netanyahu’s statement yesterday that was strongly critical of Hamas’s latest response to the existing proposal.
• So far, this latest heavy barrage from Lebanon has not caused any injuries. Most rockets have either been intercepted or landed in open areas. However, such large numbers of rockets fired – including directed at populated towns like Naharya – run the risk of causing significant casualties which in turn lead to a further escalation.
• Lebanese sources say that Naser, who joined Hezbollah in 1986, survived several previous assassination attempts by Israel, and that he was associated with the Hezbollah trend of launching missiles which photographed the target, thus producing videos to be used as Hezbollah propaganda.
• According to the IDF, “Naser entered his position in 2016 and led the firing of rockets and anti-tank missiles from southwestern Lebanon toward Israeli civilians, communities, and security forces. Furthermore, Naser directed a large number of terror attacks toward Israel both during and before the war, and he previously held several central roles within the Hezbollah terrorist organisation.”
• “Naser was the counterpart of Sami Taleb Abdullah, the commander of the Nasser Unit, who was eliminated last month. Together, they served as two of the most significant Hezbollah terrorists in southern Lebanon.”
• Hezbollah announced his death by referring to him as a ‘shahid commander’, an honorific reserved for senior commanders.
• According to Hezbollah – which unlike Hamas provides the numbers of its operatives killed – 362 of its fighters have now died since it joined Hamas in attacking Israel on October 8th.
• The organisation is also coming under increasing domestic criticism in Lebanon for inflaming tensions with Israel, sacrificing the country’s own needs to those of Iran, and risking the country’s security.

Looking ahead: The government is coming under increasing pressure from families in the north for the situation to be resolved by the start of the school year on September 1st.

• However, military officials have expressed concern over setting such civilians deadlines influencing military considerations.
• Operations in Rafah are still expected to conclude within two to four weeks, after which there is hope that a hostage deal might be secured.