Netanyahu in the US: Prime Minister Netanyahu arrived in the US yesterday, ahead of his address to Congress tomorrow.

• Before his departure, Netanyahu told reports he was leaving “at a time when Israel is fighting on seven fronts… I will seek to anchor the bipartisan support that is so important for Israel,” he continued. “And I will tell my friends on both sides of the aisle that regardless who the American people choose as their next President, Israel remains America’s indispensable and strong ally in the Middle East.”
• On arrival, Netanyahu met with hostage families, alongside his wife Sara and Israeli government representative on hostages Gal Hirsch.
• Of the pursuit of a hostage deal, Netanyahu said “We are determined to get everyone back. The conditions for getting them back are ripening thanks to the simple reason that we are exerting very-very strong  pressure on Hamas. We’ve seen a certain change, and I think that change will gradually increase… Regarding a deal, the conditions are gradually ripening, without doubt. That is a good sign, and the other sign that we have seen is that the enemy’s spirit is beginning to break.”
• Israel negotiators have been continuing lengthy and intense negotiations with Egyptian and Qatari mediators. A formal Israeli proposal is set to be delivered in Qatar on Thursday.
• The IDF also announced yesterday that two more hostages, Alex Dancyg and Yagev Buchshtab, are no longer alive and their bodies are being held by Hamas. The circumstances of their death in Hamas captivity are being investigated. Yagev Buchshtab was a 34-year-old from Kibbutz Nirim. He was abducted together with his wife, Rimon, who was released in November as part of the first hostage release agreement. Dancyg, was 75, from Nir Oz. Born in Poland, he was a renowned Holocaust educator at Yad Vashem.

Gaza Strip:  The IDF continues to operate in various parts of the Gaza Strip, including in Khan Yunis and Rafah

• The IDF deemed it necessary to return to Khan Younis to thwart Hamas efforts to reconstitute some of their fighting capacity. On Monday night, two additional IDF brigades were sent to the city. Tanks entered the eastern part of the city, after first informing local residents on the eastern edges of the humanitarian zone to leave and to head further to the west. The IDF reports that over 30 terrorist targets have since been attacked in Khan Younis.
• In the Rafah area, according to the IDF they continue their “precise, intelligence-based operational activity.” This includes killing “dozens of terrorists in close-quarters encounters, with support from the IAF.”
• This included Muhammad Abu Seidu, “a Nukhba terrorist who participated in the invasion into Israel on October 7th and directed multiple attacks against IDF troops in the Gaza Strip.”
• Also in central Gaza, the IDF confirmed that “over the past day, the forces have eliminated numerous terrorists.” In addition, the Israeli Air Force “struck approximately 35 targets throughout the Gaza Strip, including military structures, terrorists and other terror infrastructure sites.”
• In Rafah, the IDF announced that the Nahal Brigade who have been operating there for about two months have, “eliminated over 150 terrorists who posed a threat to the troops and located approximately 400 different weapons.” Operating in four separate sectors:
  • “In the south of the ‘Brazil’ area, the troops destroyed a significant underground tunnel route hundreds of metres long that included several floors and levels.”
  • “In the north of the ‘Yibna’ refugee camp, the troops carried out a targeted operation during which they eliminated terrorists and located weapon storage facilities in the area.”
  • “In the centre of the ‘Brazil’ area and the ‘Alshaboura’ refugee camp, the troops deepened the operational achievement and located: workshops both above and below the ground, rockets in sensitive locations and tunnel shafts leading to terror tunnels.”
  • “In their most recent operation, the troops raided a school near the humanitarian route where armed terrorists who tried to take over the route were entrenched… In the school yard, they located an operational tunnel shaft used by the terrorists.”
• On the Gaza periphery, there was an attempted stabbing attack on Monday at the entrance of Netiv Haasara. The assailant pulled up in a rental car, exited the vehicle and threatened members of the community’s security team with a knife, before he was shot. The terrorist was later identified as a Muslim Canadian that had arrived in Israel posing as a tourist the day before.
• It’s now been 291 days since the hostages were abducted. According to official Israeli data of the 120 hostages still in captivity, 46 are no longer alive, at least 13 were killed since the first hostages were released at end of last year. Of the 74 presumed still alive, 2 are children, 12 are women, including 5 female soldiers. Of the 60 men, six are over the age of 60.

Context: Netanyahu arrives in the US at a time of extraordinary American political upheaval and is likely to find the US political establishment concerned primarily with domestic matters.

• With Biden freed of the burden of re-election, there is much speculation on what his policies and attitude towards Israel and its war in Gaza will be during his remaining tenure. His administration has expressed deep frustration with Netanyahu’s right and far-right coalition, and shown itself willing to impose sanctions on West Bank settlers, and may look for further opportunities to do so.
• Netanyahu will recognise the sensitivity of the American political climate he is entering and is thought likely to focus his address to congress on consensual, bipartisan aspects of the US-Israeli relationship.
• After his withdrawal from the presidential race, in a message to his campaign base, Biden said that during his remaining time in office, “I’ll be working very closely with the Israelis and with the Palestinians to try to work out how we can get the Gaza war to end, and Middle East peace, and get all those hostages home.”
• Hostage negotiations have continued under the broad framework of what became known as the “Biden proposal”, despite its originating in Israel. The two areas of greatest concern in recent weeks have related to Hamas’s demands that Israel vacate the Philadelphia Corridor between Gaza and Egypt, and that northern Gazans displaced by the war be allowed to return north. Israel has maintained that some kind of presence in the corridor is essential to prevent the resumption of weapons smuggling into Gaza through Egypt, and that mechanisms must be in place to prevent Hamas fighters moving north along with the civilian population.
• It is highly likely that Hamas will instinctively resist the solutions Israeli delegates will propose on these issues. However, there is hope that the combination of the pressure Israel has brought to bear on the organisation through its military campaign and diplomatic pressure from Qatar and Egypt will persuade Hamas leaders that this is the best deal it can expect.

Looking ahead: This is a particularly crucial moment for the hostages and for hostage negotiations, as, with the election approaching, the US will have reduced diplomatic capacity to devote to the issue.

• Netanyahu will address both houses of congress tomorrow, with some Democratic figures expected to boycott.
• Despite a meeting with President Biden at one stage looking unlikely due to his Covid diagnosis, the two are expected to meet on Thursday. Before his departure, Netanyahu said that this would be “an opportunity to thank him for the things he did for Israel in the war and during his long and distinguished career in public service, as Senator, as Vice President, and as President.”
• “It will also be an opportunity to discuss with him how to advance in the critical months ahead the goals that are important for both our countries: Achieving the release of all our hostages, defeating Hamas, confronting the terror axis of Iran and its proxies, and ensuring that all Israel citizens return safely to their homes in the north and in the south.”
• Netanyahu is also set to meet with Harris during his visit.
• He is due to fly back to Israel on Friday, but is thought to be prepared to extend his stay to enable a meeting with Trump

What’s happened: On Saturday, Israel responded to last Friday’s fatal Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv by attacking the Yemeni port of Hodeida with F-15, F-16, and F-35 bombers, setting oil and gas depots on fire and disrupting port activity.

• The operation was codenamed “Long Arm”, a reflection of the fact that Israeli planes had to travel over 1,800 kilometres to reach Yemen – longer even than the journey to Tehran.
• The approximately 20 planes involved in the mission required mid-air refuelling and flew at low altitude to avoid enemy radar. Israeli naval vessels in the Red Sea provided cover.
• The attack, which took place under the US CENTCOM umbrella, and is likely to have involved some level of coordination with both Egypt and Saudi Arabia, is thought to have reduced the Hodeida port’s fuel storage capacity from 150,000 tonnes to 50,000.
• IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said about Operation Long Arm: “We attacked the area of the port because it is a supply route to deliver Iranian arms from Iran to Yemen.” He added: “This was a complex attack, one of the longest-distance and longest-range attacks ever to be carried out by the Israel Air Force. It required meticulous planning and preparations for a range of possible threats in the area.”
• Defence Minister Gallant said, “The fire that is now burning in Hodeida can be seen across the entire Middle East, and that has clear implications. The Houthis attacked us more than 200 times. The first time they hurt an Israeli citizen, we hit them and we will do that in every place that doing so is necessary.”
• Prime Minister Netanyahu put the attack in the wider context of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” and the threat it poses both to Israel and the world: “This axis is operating not only against Israel,” he said. “It threatens the wellbeing of the entire world. And Israel expects the international community to intensify its efforts against Iran and its proxies to curb Iran’s aggression and to defend international freedom of sailing. Anyone who wants to see a stable and safe Middle East needs to stand up to Iran’s axis of evil and to support Israel’s struggle against Iran and its proxies.”
• On Sunday, the Houthis retaliated by launching multiple ballistic missiles towards the southern Israeli city of Eilat. Israel’s long-range Arrow 3 defence system intercepted one missile outside of Israeli airspace. While sirens sounded in Eilat, there were no reports on impact in the area.
• Friday’s drone attack on Tel Aviv was the latest act of Houthi aggression against Israel. In the last nine months, the Yemeni groups has fired over 220 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, mostly at Eilat.
• The attack, by an Iranian-made Samad-3 drone, killed Tel Aviv resident Yevgeny Ferder, 50, the first time an Israeli civilian had been killed by a Houthi strike. Eight others were taken to hospital with injuries. The IDF said that the drone had been tracked from Yemen to Israel but was not engaged by air defences due to human error.

Context: The Israeli attack came as a direct response to Friday’s drone attack, but this was also the first Israeli strike on Yemen since they have launched over 200 missiles and drones towards Israel since October.

• Since October 7^th, under Iranian direction the Houthis have both targeted Israel directly but also Israel-affiliated vessels in the Red Sea. Over 200 attacks have been launched on international vessels, with the disruption to international shipping significantly impacting several economies. With vessels having to divert routes, Egypt, for example, is losing a significant amount of traffic which would usually travel through the Suez Canal.
• In response to this targeting, the US and UK have attacked Houthi military infrastructure, in a bid to defend global shipping and trade. Despite US and UK efforts, Houthi attacks have persisted. There is hope that Israel targeting key infrastructure may have more of a deterrent effect.
• Unlike strikes against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in the north which focus on military targets, this operation deliberately targeted the Houthis’ port and infrastructure.
• The strike was carried out in the daytime to further highlight the Israeli decision to strike. By targeting the oil storage, it ensured the dramatic images of the fires raging were seen into the night.
• The IDF had planned for an operation of this nature for months, having simulated the requisite length of flight and refuelling over the Mediterranean. However, the quick turnaround to carry out the attack a day a half after the drone struck Tel Aviv is an impressive operational accomplishment.
• This serves to further rehabilitate the image of the IDF and send a warning to Iran over the ability to carry out complex missions 1,800km away from Israel.
• The IDF struck 10 targets, along with the oil reserves, the port was also targeted as the main site for the importing and unloading of Iranian weapons. It is possible that the targets also included weapons storage, but this has not been confirmed.
• While Israeli officials have emphasised that Israel conducted this operation on its own, it would have coordinated the flight path with allies in the region including Egypt and Saudi Arabia as they flew close to their airspace. This is the latest advantageous example of Israel being part of US CENTCOM, which aids regional coordination.
• The strike can also be perceived as a warning to Hezbollah that Lebanese state infrastructure could be targeted if escalation in the north persists.
• In the short term, the operation elicited criticism from northern residents who have been under constant attack for months and have been calling on the government to respond more forcefully. It gave the perception that a strike on Tel Aviv carries more weight than those in the north.
• Israeli officials, however, pointed out that it was the accumulative attacks emanating from the Houthis which caused Israel to take action, and that the response would have been similar if the fatality had been in Eilat or elsewhere.
• Hezbollah’s threat is of a much greater order of magnitude, and due to Lebanon’s proximity to Israel, many more factors need to be taken into consideration before Lebanese infrastructure is targeted.

Looking ahead: The Houthis have said that they intend to continue its attacks against Israel. Over the weekend, spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam tell Al Jazeera there would be “no red lines… All sensitive institutions with all… levels will be a target for us.”

• It is the Israeli hope that the damage to the port will impede the Houthis efforts to import Iranian weapons

* For coverage of the drone attack in Tel Aviv in the early hours of this morning, see Israeli Media Summary below.

ICJ: This afternoon, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague is set to deliver a nonbinding advisory opinion on the status of Israel’s military and civilian presence in east Jerusalem and the West Bank under international law.

• Evidentiary hearings were heard in February, after a 2022 UN resolution requesting the court’s opinion on the “Legal Consequences arising from the Policies and Practices of Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem.”
• The resolution, passed by 87 votes to 26 (with 53 abstentions), asked for the court’s scope of enquiry to consider the “ongoing violation” of “the right of the Palestinian people to self-determination” and “prolonged occupation, settlement and annexation of the Palestinian territory occupied since 1967,” as well as alleged Israeli attempts to alter  “the demographic composition, character and status of the Holy City of Jerusalem.”
• The UK joined the US, Germany, Italy, Canada, and Australia in voting against the resolution. Israel felt reassured that its closest allies did not support the resolution, forming what Israel refers to as a “moral minority” of western liberal democratic states supporting it.
• The court’s February hearings were extensive, with over 50 countries giving evidence. Israel, however, opted not to cooperate with the process, arguing that it was “part of the Palestinian attempt to dictate the results of the diplomatic settlement without negotiations” – an alleged tactic often referred to as ‘lawfare’. It expressed its view that the court lacked appropriate jurisdiction in a submission to the court itself.
• At the time of the UN resolution calling for the ICJ’s opinion, Prime Minister Netanyahu said “just like the hundreds of distorted UN General Assembly resolutions against Israel over the years, today’s disgraceful resolution will not obligate the government of Israel. The Jewish people is not occupying its land and is not occupying its eternal capital Jerusalem. No UN resolution can distort this historical truth.”

Context: The ICJ is one of the UN’s principle organs. It’s opinions, though usually non-binding, often contribute to customary international law.

• The court is composed of 15 judges who are elected to by the UN General Assembly and Security Council to serve for nine-year terms.
• The court’s current president is Lebanese judge Nawaf Salam, who has a history of harsh criticism of Israel.
• In 2004, the court was requested by the UN to deliver an advisory opinion on the legality of the separation barrier between Israel and the West Bank.
• Unlike in the recent case called by South Africa, the ICJ’s advisory opinion on the current case will be non-binding.
• Critics argue that Israel’s non-participation means that the ICJ will lack the necessary factual basis required to reach an informed decision. As former Israeli Supreme Court Aharon Barak noted of the 2004 case, “in the proceedings before the ICJ, the injured parties did not participate. Israel was not party to the proceedings. There was no adversarial process, whose purpose is to establish the factual basis through a choice between contradictory factual figures. The ICJ accepted the figures in the [UN] Secretary-General’s report, and in the reports of the special rapporteurs, as objective factual figures. The burden was not cast upon the parties to the proceedings, nor was it examined.”
• Legal critics of the court’s processes have argued that it tends to rely too heavily on evidence supplied by the UN itself. These same critics have cast doubt on the reliability of this UN-supplied evidence, pointing, for example, to the international body’s general acceptance of Hamas casualty figures from the current war in Gaza.
• Of the current case, critics also note that, in the case of East Jerusalem, the will of the Palestinian population is likely to be ignored. Polling has indicated that, by a large majority, East Jerusalemites have indicated a preference for the area remaining under Israeli control.
• Unlike the West Bank, East Jerusalemites hold Israeli residence permits, giving them full freedom of movement, full rights to the benefits of Israeli citizenship, including healthcare and national insurance payments (bar the right to vote for the Knesset, unless they apply for citizenship).
• Earlier this year, in another anti-Israel motivated move, South Africa brought a case to the ICJ accusing Israel of genocide in its war in Gaza. The court accepted the case, and its full investigation could take several years.
• Israel took control of the West Bank in a defensive war in June 1967, during which time Jerusalem was also unified. The UN has generally held that this occupation was/is unlawful, pointing to the general international legal principle of the inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by force.
• Critics of this view argue that this principle cannot justly be applied to territory occupied during a defensive war, and that the previous custodian of the areas – Jordan – had not right to occupy them either.
• However, multiple Israeli governments, including the Prime Minister Netanyahu in his famous Bar Ilan speech, have accepted in principle that the West Bank would form part of an independent Palestinian state under a future two state solution, with appropriate modifications made to account for Israeli settlement there and Israel’s security needs.
• The repeated failure of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank to clamp down on terror and to cease incitement and inducement to commit it has led many in Israel to grow sceptical of the wisdom of such a two state solution. October 7th has only added to the view that, as presently constituted, the Palestinian national movement cannot be considered a peaceful partner to such a process.
• This week, by 68 votes to 9, the Knesset passed a declarative resolution rejecting the prospect of a two state solution. Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid and the Labour Party, as well as the prime minister himself, absented themselves from the Knesset chamber in order to avoid the vote.
• The resolution said that “the Knesset of Israel firmly opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state west of Jordan. The establishment of a Palestinian state in the heart of the Land of Israel will pose an existential danger to the State of Israel and its citizens, perpetuate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and destabilise the region.”
• “It will only be a matter of a short time until Hamas takes over the Palestinian state and turns it into a radical Islamic terror base, working in coordination with the Iranian-led axis to eliminate the State of Israel,” it continued. “Promoting the idea of ​​a Palestinian state at this time will be a reward for terrorism and will only encourage Hamas and its supporters to see this as a victory, thanks to the massacre of October 7, 2023, and a prelude to the takeover of jihadist Islam in the Middle East.”
• However, the resolution should be seen as a symbolic gesture reflecting the view of the current government as well as the scepticism of Benny Gantz’s opposition faction. It is a recognition of the current fears of the majority of Israelis regarding two states, rather than a binding policy position which might impede future Israeli governments in pursuing a two state solution.

Looking ahead: The announcement is expected in The Hague at 3pm local time.

• Although Israel was not party to the proceedings, pressure will likely grow from the furthest right-wing elements in the government to punish the Palestinians for such a perceived act of lawfare. They will likely push for further unilateral actions in the West Bank, further exacerbating international criticism.
• Israeli officials are concerned over the possibility that the court will advise the UN that Israel is violating international law, and may even call on another international juridical body, the International Criminal Court, to initiate criminal proceedings against Israeli officials in the West Bank.

What’s happened: A new report by the NGO Human Rights Watch (HRW) has confirmed and detailed how Hamas committed hundreds of war crimes on October 7th.

• Announcing the report, HRW associate director Belkis Wille told a press conference that “it’s impossible for us to put a number on the specific instances,” of war crimes; “there were obviously hundreds on that day.”
• The report itself finds that Hamas and other armed groups “committed numerous violations of the laws of war that amount to war crimes, including attacks targeting civilians and civilian objects; wilful killing of people in custody; cruel and other inhumane treatment; crimes involving sexual and gender-based violence; hostage-taking; mutilation and despoiling bodies; use of human shields; and pillage and looting.”
• The report rejects Hamas’s repeated baseless claims that the massacre did not target civilians, finding that “the intentional killing and hostage-taking of civilians was planned and highly coordinated.”
• “The widespread attack was directed against a civilian population. Killing civilians and taking hostages were central aims of the planned attack, not an afterthought, a plan gone awry, or isolated acts. Human Rights Watch concluded that the planned murder of civilians and the hostage-taking were crimes against humanity.”
• “Across many attack sites,” the report continues, “Palestinian fighters fired directly at civilians, often at close range, as they tried to flee, and at people driving through the area. The attackers hurled grenades, shot into shelters, and fired rocket-propelled grenades at homes. They set houses on fire, burning and choking people, and forcing out others whom they shot or captured. They took dozens hostage and summarily killed others.”
• While focussing on Hamas’s armed wing Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades as the planners and instigators of the attack, HRW also “confirmed the participation of four other Palestinian armed groups based on headbands the fighters wore to indicate their affiliation and their claims of responsibility posted to their Telegram channels on social media.”
• The report also addresses the question of sexual violence – a point of widespread denial from anti-Zionist and pro-Hamas activists. HRW says it “found evidence of acts of sexual and gender-based violence by fighters including forced nudity, and the posting without consent of sexualized images on social media.”
• It cites interviewees “who reported witnessing rape and other sexual violence” including “rape and gang rape, in at least three locations.”

Context: The HRW report is one of the most detailed international investigations into the massacres, which killed over 1,100 Israelis and saw 251 others kidnapped.

• The report explains that “Between October 2023 and June 2024, Human Rights Watch interviewed 144 people including 94 Israeli and other nationals who witnessed the October 7 assault, victims’ family members, first responders, and medical experts. Researchers also verified and analysed over 280 photographs and videos taken during the assault and posted on social media or shared directly with Human Rights Watch.”
• HRW is a harsh and long-standing critic of Israeli policy and accused by many pro-Israel advocates of being perennially biased against the Jewish state. In November 2023, an outgoing senior HRW editor, Danielle Haas, claimed that the organisation’s work on Israel-Palestine had become increasingly politicised.
• “Following the Hamas massacres in Israel on October 7,” Haas said, “years of institutional creep culminated in organisational responses that shattered professionalism, abandoned principles of accuracy and fairness, and surrendered its duty to stand for the human rights of all.”
• This report should, therefore, permanently discredit attempts by anti-Israeli activists to deny the facts of October 7th. It is a through and conclusive analysis by an organisation not usually predisposed to favour Israel.
• The report also called on states with influence over Hamas to press for the immediate release of all hostages.
• As negotiations continue between Israeli officials, Hamas, and US, Egyptian, and Qatari mediators, on Monday Defence Minister Gallant gave cause for optimism for a successful resolution.
• “When there wasn’t any possibility of a deal, I told you so,” Gallant said to a meeting of hostage families. “Now, there is, so I’m here to tell you: it’s closer than ever.”
• “The defence establishment is united. The IDF, Shin Bet and Mossad all [believe] there is no security obstacle to the deal that is insurmountable from our point of view,”
• Amid reports that there is a split between Prime Minister Netanyahu on the one hand, and Gallant and the security and intelligence establishments on the other on how flexible Israel’s demands should be, Gallant reportedly told the families, “you should schedule a meeting with the prime minister before he leaves for the United States. He’s the one who decides.” Gallant said that progress would be “much harder after Netanyahu returns from Washington.”
• In response, the prime minister’s office said “in order to bring about the release of the hostages, the pressure must be increased on Sinwar, not on Netanyahu… the prime minister’s approach of military pressure and standing firm in the negotiations has advanced both objectives: both the return of the hostages and achieving the other war objective. Now is the time to increase the military pressure, because this is what will make it possible to get back live hostages at a price that does not endanger the State of Israel.”

Looking ahead: Negotiators are expected to reconvene later this week in a bid to reach a hostage/ceasefire deal.

• As the HRW report suggests, Hamas is responsible for the capture and holding of the hostages and it is incumbent on the international community to bring pressure to bear on the group for their release

What’s happened: Newly-appointed UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy yesterday continued his visit in Israel.

• After having met separately with Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Palestinian leadership on Sunday, Lammy yesterday met separately with President Herzog and Foreign Minister Katz and with the families of UK hostages. He also visited Yad Vashem. With Herzog, Lammy met with the family of Tamir Adar, who was murdered in Kibbutz Nir Oz on October 7^th and whose body remains captive in Gaza.
• Welcoming Lammy to Israel, Herzog said, “I have great appreciation for the fact that one of your first trips is to this region and to Israel. I think the fact that you won in such a landslide enables the United Kingdom to move forward in a very dramatic way, and be involved in new frontiers and new horizons.”
• He added, on Iran: “We are at war with an empire of evil that wants to undermine the stability of the world and is rushing to the bomb, undermining international trade, blocking trade routes… And of course trying to surround Israel by its proxies from all over. That is why there is no more just war. We are a nation seeking peace, and I believe that we must find peace with our neighbours. I know that Britain sees it as a very important point and I hope you have a very productive visit.”
• In response, Lammy replied “I hope that we see a hostage deal emerge in the coming days, and I am using all diplomatic efforts… I hope too, that we see a ceasefire soon, and we bring an alleviation to the suffering and the intolerable loss of life that we’re now seeing also in Gaza. So it’s in that spirit that I returned as Foreign Secretary, hoping to bring, and for the UK to do all it can to bring, peace and stability to this region, this most complex and challenging of regions at this time.”
• Foreign Minister Katz said on X (formerly Twitter): “I met today with the new UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy to discuss the war in Gaza, regional issues, and the urgent need to combat the Iranian threat. I told him that actions like the elimination of Mohammed Deif and continued military pressure on Hamas, along with a clear message from the UK and the world that any ceasefire is conditional on the release of all hostages, are the only ways to bring them home. We will continue to work together to strengthen the friendship between the UK and Israel.”

The south: Operations continue in Gaza. According to the IDF, “troops are continuing targeted, intelligence-based operational activity in the Rafah area. Over the past day, the troops eliminated terrorists in cooperation with the IAF [Israeli Air Force], dismantled tunnel shafts in the area, and struck Hamas terror infrastructure sites that posed a threat to the troops.”

• “Additionally, over the past day, IDF troops continued operational activity in the area of central Gaza and conducted targeted raids on terror targets in the area.”
• “Furthermore, over the past day, the IAF struck approximately 40 terror targets, including sniping posts, observation posts, Hamas military structures, terror infrastructure, and buildings rigged with explosives.”

The north: Yesterday, Hezbollah attacks continued, as they fired over 50 rockets at Kiryat Shmona and other northern Israeli communities.  Several rockets landed in Kiryat Shmona, causing damage but no reported casualties.

• At least three Hezbollah operatives were reportedly killed in IAF air strikes in southern Lebanon, while a Hezbollah commander was killed alongside a Syrian business with close connections to the Assad regime in an air strike in Syria close to the Lebanese border.
• According to the IDF, the IAF also struck Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure in the areas of Houla, Kfarkela, and Bani Haiyyan in southern Lebanon. In addition, IDF artillery struck in the areas of Blida, Deir Mimas, and Rmeish in order to remove a threat.
• The IDF also says that overnight, the IAF struck Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure in the areas of Houla, Kfarkela, and Bani Haiyyan in southern Lebanon.

Context: Lammy making Israel one of his first foreign visits since taking office is testament both to the strength and closeness of the Britain-Israel relationship and the UK’s continued concern over the fate of the hostages, and civilians affected by the war in Gaza.

• There is appreciation in Israel for Lammy visiting so soon, and for meeting with hostage families and keeping their plight high on the international agenda.
• Lammy’s Labour Party assumed office committed to a ceasefire in Gaza, the return of all Israeli hostages, and a renewed pursuit of a two state solution. Like his US counterparts, Lammy has also come out strongly against settler violence and settlement expansion in the West Bank.
• Recent reports have suggested that, contrary to previous suggestions, Labour will maintain the UK’s objection to the International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor’s application for arrest warrants for Israeli officials, including the prime minister.
• The concerns raised by Lammy are consistent with previous UK diplomatic perspectives, indicating that despite the change of government, UK policy has so far not shifted dramatically.
• The ongoing operations in Gaza come in parallel to an apparent split between Netanyahu, on the one hand, and Defence Minister Gallant and the security establishment, on the other, over how flexible Israel should be prepared to be to secure a hostage deal.
• Netanyahu is said to be insisting on Israel retaining control of the crucial Philadelphia corridor between Gaza and Egypt, and to preventing a return of northern Gazans to their former areas of residence.
• Reports suggest a possible compromise has been discussed in talks with Egyptian and other international mediators, allowing Israel to track and control the Philadelphia corridor without maintaining a physical presence there.
• 116 hostages kidnapped on October 7^th remain in captivity in Gaza: 102 men, 16 women, and 2 children. In addition to the 116 remaining, four other hostages are also in Gaza: two bodies, and two living hostages from three separate incidents in 2014. Israel will seek to have the two living hostages, Hisham al-Sayed and Avera Mengistu, included in any release.
• According to Israel at least 43 of the abductees are no longer alive and their bodies are being held by Hamas.
• Meanwhile, the continued assessment of IDF officials is that Hamas’s military chief of staff Mohammed Deif was killed in an air strike on Saturday morning.
• The action in the north continues weeks of intense Hezbollah fire on northern Israel, from where around 80,000 Israelis remain internally displaced and unable to return to their homes while the threat remains.
• While there are currently no signs of the diplomatic resolution for which American and French officials have worked for over nine months, the assessment remains that both Hezbollah and its Iranian patron are keen to maintain their war of attrition, but to keep it below the threshold of all-out war.
• However, recent attacks towards lower Galilee have increased concern over how deep into Israel Hezbollah’s fire is now reaching.
• On the diplomatic front, there remains hope that a successful hostage negotiation/ceasefire would also be respected by Hezbollah in the north .

Looking ahead: An additional Israeli delegation is set to depart for further hostage talks later this week.

• Israel remains on alert for possible retaliation to the strike on Deif, with officials vigilant against threats to Israeli targets around the world.

What happened: The Israeli assessment is that it is highly likely that Hamas’s military chief of staff and second most senior commander in Gaza, Mohamed Deif, was killed in a strike on Saturday.

• While confirmation of Deif’s death still awaits, Hamas did confirm that Rafa’a Salameh, the commander of its Khan Younis Brigade, was killed in the attack on a building in which he and Deif were operating in the area of Al-Mawasi in southern Gaza.
• Having confirmed with absolute certainty that Deif was in the compound, in a wooded area in Al-Mawasi owned by Salameh, the joint IDF-Shin Bet attack reportedly occurred in four stages:
  • First, a missile was fired, striking the part of the building intelligence indicated Deif was using.
  • A second missile, fired immediately after the first, then destroyed the whole building.
  • Third, a third strike targeted the building’s perimeter, with the aim of preventing Hamas rescue teams being able to reach and treat Deif.
  • Finally, bunker-buster bombs were deployed, exploding below ground, in a bid to destroy underground facilities intelligence assessed were situated beneath the building.
• On Saturday night, Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed the attack but remained circumspect on whether Deif had been killed.  “The State of Israel,” he said, “using the IDF and Shin Bet, attacked in Gaza in an attempt to assassinate Mohamed Deif and his deputy, Rafa’a Salameh. There is still no absolute certainty that the two were killed; either way, we will get to the entire Hamas leadership. This opportunity and others to act against the terrorists became possible because we rejected the many pressures, from within and from without, to end the war before achieving all the objectives.”
• Palestinian officials say that more than 90 others were killed in the attack, with Israeli counterparts claiming these numbers are inflated and likely to include a high proportion of terrorists.
• Elsewhere, newly appointed UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy paid his first visit to Israel yesterday. Holding talks with both Netanyahu in Jerusalem and the Palestinian leadership in Ramallah, Lammy called for a ceasefire in Gaza and for the return of all Israeli hostages, as well as stressing the UK’s commitment to the two state solution.
• “The death and destruction in Gaza is intolerable,” Lammy said. “This war must end now, with an immediate ceasefire, complied with by both sides. The fighting has got to stop, the hostages still cruelly detained by Hamas terrorists need to be released immediately and aid must be allowed in to reach the people of Gaza without restrictions.
• “I am meeting with Israeli and Palestinian leaders to stress the UK’s ambition and commitment to play its full diplomatic role in securing a ceasefire deal and creating the space for a credible and irreversible pathway towards a two-state solution. The world needs a safe and secure Israel alongside a viable and sovereign Palestinian state.“
• “Central to this is to see an end to expanding illegal Israeli settlements and rising settler violence in the West Bank. Here, in what should be a crucial part of a Palestinian state, alongside Gaza and East Jerusalem, we need to see a reformed and empowered Palestinian Authority.”

Context: Should Deif be confirmed to have died, his killing would be of huge significance to Israel’s ongoing war against Hamas. He was, along with Yahya Sinwar and the previously assassinated Marwan Issa, one of the three principle architects of October 7th, and of supreme symbolic importance to Hamas’s ‘resistance’ narrative.

• Deif has been on Israel’s most wanted list from the time of Hamas’s emergence in the 1990s, and has survived multiple previous assassination attempts.
• Writing on Sunday, Maariv’s Ben Caspit, a long-time critic of Prime Minister Netanyahu, said “this could prove to be the war’s tipping point. Mohammed Deif was the number-one Palestinian-Hamas symbol. Yes, more so than Yahya Sinwar. His assassination is a victory picture of sorts. It doesn’t mean that we have eradicated terrorism, and it doesn’t mean that Hamas has been annihilated. But it does mean that Israel has chalked up an important strategic achievement that, if handled correctly, can be turned into a victory picture.”
• Deif is considered largely responsible for transitioning Hamas from a militia to an organised military force capable of executing operations on the scale of October 7th.  He was also positioned by Hamas iconography as the “defender of Jerusalem”, having spearheaded 2021’s rocket fire on Jerusalem.
• Salameh, too, was a veteran of the 1990s and a high priority target, coordinating Hamas’s war effort with Sinwar and overseeing the captivity of the hostages. He is also known to have played a crucial role in the abduction of Gilad Shalit in 2006 and in building Hamas’s tunnel network in Khan Younis.
• On being apprised that Deif and Salameh had been definitively located and that an assassination operation was possible, Netanyahu is said to have responded with three questions before giving the go-ahead: what scale of ordinance would be required; what levels of civilian casualties could be expected; and was it considered likely that any hostages were in the vicinity.
• If confirmed that Deif and Salameh were killed, only four senior Hamas commanders would remain alive in the Strip: Hamas Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar; his brother Muhammad Sinwar, commander of the southern Gaza region; Gaza City Brigade Commander Izz al-Din al-Haddad; and Rafah Brigade Commander Mohammed Shabana. The latter has already survived two Israeli attempts on his life.
• With Hamas’s military structure having become fractured during ongoing Israeli operations in the Strip, and with field officers acting essentially independently, the immediate impact on the continued conduct of the war will likely be limited.
• The site of the attack, in southern Gaza’s Al-Mawasi, is not an area the IDF has designated a current combat zone. The assessment is that Deif chose to evade detection by operating in an area housing a large number of Gazan refugees in makeshift tents, and to use the surrounding population as a human shield.
• The impact of the suspected assassinations of two so senior figures on ongoing hostage negotiations remains to be seen. There are two potential, and opposing, outcomes: on the one hand, Hamas may use the strike as a pretext to scupper the talks; on the other, the loss of two such important commanders may increase the pressure Hamas feels to conclude a deal.
• There is some precedent: in March, talks continued after Israel assassinated Marwan Issa, deputy commander of Hamas’s military wing.

Looking ahead: If Deif is confirmed killed, Muhammad Sinwar and al-Haddad would both be candidates to replace him as chief of staff.

• Lammy is expected to complete his visit to Israel today, after meeting with President Herzog and some of the hostage families. He is using his visit to launch a further £5 million in government funding for UK-Med, a frontline UK charity providing relief to the victims of the war.
• The latest assessment is that despite the strike on Deif, hostage negotiations are set to continue

What’s happened: The IDF yesterday released its report into events at Kibbutz Beeri on October 7^th. The army, it found, “failed in its mission to protect the residents of Kibbutz Beeri.”

• The report, overseen by former commander of the Gaza Division Maj. Gen. (res.) Mickey Edelstein, represents a damning indictment of the speed and nature of the Israeli response, and the extent to which the residents of the kibbutz were left undefended for several hours.
• It concluded that the army was prepared only for “single intrusion” attacks, and was unready for the type of multi-location assault initiated by Hamas. It also found that despite kibbutz security personnel relaying information to the army early in the day, the IDF was not able to ascertain of what was unfolding until much later. The report also noted that, in some cases, troops waited for their commanders to arrive before engaging.
• Among the more shocking findings are that in some instances troops acted against protocol and treated or evacuated fellow soldiers before civilians.
• The slow pace of the IDF’s response meant that by 1330 in the afternoon, seven hours after Hamas terrorists first attacked the kibbutz, only 26 Israeli fighters were fighting around 340 terrorists. By the time further numbers arrived, the majority of the kibbutz’s victims had already been killed.
• The report found that “combat in the area during the initial hours was characterised by a lack of command and control, a lack of coordination, and a lack of order among the different forces and units. This led to several incidents where security forces grouped at the entrance to the kibbutz without immediately engaging in combat.”
• The report also pays tribute to the residents of Kibbutz Beeri and its own security team, who combined to hold the terrorists off for several hours.
• Of an incident in which tank fire was directed at the home of kibbutz resident Pessi Cohen, in which Hamas had taken a large number of residents hostage, the report finds that, to the best of its understanding, the tank fire did not cause deaths inside the house (rather, Hamas killed the hostages), but that further investigations were needed.
• IDF Spokesman Rear Admiral Hagari said of the report last night that, “the IDF failed in its mission to defend the residents of Kibbutz Beeri. It is difficult and painful for me to say this. We were not there for long hours of fighting. For hours, the residents of Beeri defended their families with their bodies, alone, facing the terrorists.”

In the south: The IDF continues operations against Hamas across the Gaza Strip. It has expanded an evacuation order to cover the entirety of Gaza City while issuing a notice saying it will be suspending inspections along two roads in Gaza City, in the north of the Gaza Strip, to allow civilians to reach humanitarian zones more easily and quickly as the city “will remain a dangerous combat zone”.

• The IDF’s 99^th Division has begun operating in Gaza City again, and located lathes used to manufacture weapons as well as cash said to belong to terrorist groups.
• In Rafah, troops of the IDF’s 162^nd Division have killed a number of gunmen and called airstrikes in on enemy targets.
• Following an attempted rocket attack on the southern communities of Holit, Kerem Shalom, Dekel Yated, Yevul, Sdei Avraham, and Avshalom, the IDF has responded with joint ground and aerial strikes to eliminate the responsible terrorists. Rockets were also fired from the northern district of Beit Hanoun which landed in open areas and did not cause any injuries.

In the north: Hezbollah continues its heavy barrage of Israel’s north.

• An IDF reservist, Sgt. First Class (res.) Valeri Chefonov, 33, was killed yesterday by a Hezbollah explosive drone near Kibbutz Kabri in the Western Galilee.
• This morning, several drones were identified crossing from Lebanon into Israeli territory and fell in the Western Galilee area. A number of other suspicious aerial targets were identified approaching Israeli territory from Lebanon and successfully intercepted by the IDF. An anti-tank guided missile fired from Lebanon has also struck the civilian community of Shtula, causing some damage to a local bed and breakfast.
• The IDF continues to strike Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, both proactively and in response to specific attacks. These strikes have targeted Hezbollah’s military infrastructure in the areas of Yarine and Ramyeh, and terrorist infrastructure sites in the areas of Jibbain and Tayr Harfa.
• During a situational assessment in the north yesterday, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi said: “When your enemy is struggling, don’t turn around… in order to dismantle the enemy further, and we are making it more difficult in order to increase the chances of reaching good conditions, to bring back the hostages, this is a very, very important matter.”
• A single rocket has been fired from Syria which landed in an open area in the Golan Heights, causing no injuries or damage. The IDF has responded by striking a Syrian military base in the southern town of Tasil. It is unclear which group was responsible for this rocket strike.

Context: Beeri was one of the deadliest sites of Hamas’s rampage of murder on October 7^th. From a community of around 1,000, 101 civilians were killed, along with 31 members of the security forces. 32 people were also kidnapped, 11 of whom remain in Gaza.

• The report is one of many the IDF has carried out, with further reports addressing the day’s events at other sites forthcoming. The aims of reports like these are to provide answers to the survivors and those who lost loved ones, for the IDF to learn from its mistakes, and to aid in the process of rebuilding trust between the army and the Israeli public.
• The damning verdict of the Beeri report has increased the pressure on the government to conduct a full national commission of inquiry into the state’s conduct in the leadup to, and on the day of, October 7^th. The IDF’s inquiries have a remit to investigate only the military’s response, and not failures at the political or intelligence levels.
• Defence Minister Gallant added to calls for a commission of inquiry yesterday, saying “it must investigate me, and the prime minister and the chief of staff.” Opposition leaders called yesterday for an immediate inquiry, newly-appointed Labour Party leader Yair Golan saying that the Beeri report was “a drop in the ocean” compared to what a state commission could find.
• The US, meanwhile, has released approximately half of the heavy bombs it has withheld from Israel since May over concerns that they would be used in densely populated parts of the Gaza Strip. Close to 1700 500-pound bombs are now en route to Israel.
• Chefonov’s death follows the deaths on Tuesday of husband and wife, Noa and Nir Barnes, from Kibbutz Ortal, who were killed when their car took a direct hit from a Hezbollah rocket in the northern Golan Heights.
• The assessment remains that both Iran and Hezbollah are keen to maintain their war of attrition, but to keep it below the threshold of all-out war.
• Whilst Hezbollah has a massive stockpile of rockets, it is running short of anti-tank missiles and is looking to Iran for resupplies.

Looking ahead: Ongoing operations in Gaza continue against the backdrop of hostage negotiations. The Israeli negotiation delegation arrived in Cairo last night to continue talks with Egyptian, Qatari, and US counterparts. Sources continue to express cautious optimism over the prospects for a successful conclusion.

What’s happening: Reports today suggest a level of cautious optimism over the prospects for a successful hostage release/ceasefire deal.

• Talks continued in Qatar yesterday, where Shin Bet Director Bar, Mossad Director Barnea, and Hostage Coordinator Maj. Gen. (res.) Alon all attended meetings alongside CIA Director Burns, Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani, and senior Egyptian officials.
• It is thought significant progress has been made in narrowing the gaps between Israel and Hamas’s positions, with particular breakthroughs regarding the IDF maintaining a presence in the Philadelphia corridor. Egypt and Qatar are said to have offered guarantees to prevent weapons smuggling into the Strip in return for Israel agreeing to vacate populated areas within the strategically essential corridor.
• Nonetheless, gaps remain over the inspection of Gazans returning to the northern Gaza Strip and over the duration of negotiations between the various stages of the deal. Hamas is thought to want the negotiations between phases one and two of the process to last a number of months, while Israel insists they take only a matter of weeks.
• Reports also suggest that Israel is not prepared to accommodate Hamas’s demand that northern Gazan residents be allowed to return to their former areas of residence without inspection. The prime minister’s office said “Israel will not concede inspection and preventing the movement of terrorists  and weapons to the northern Gaza Strip.”
• It is thought Israel has suggested that the UN play a role in the inspection process, but that it is not prepared to rely on the international body entirely.
• In parallel to the negotiations, military operations in the Strip continue. The IDF today said that “this week, the IDF and Shin Bet eliminated the terrorist Hassan Abu Kuik, Head of Operational Security in Hamas’ Internal Security Forces in the Gaza Central Camps. Hassan was a military operative, active in Hamas’ Emergency Bureau, and led numerous terror attacks against the State of Israel. In addition, the IDF eliminated the terrorist Naser Mehanna, a team commander in Hamas’ military intelligence.”
• Operations also continue against Hamas fighters located in UNRWA’s Headquarters in central Gaza. The IDF said, “over the past day, the troops located large quantities of weapons in the area of the headquarters, including explosive drones, grenades, explosive devices, snipers, mortar shells, rockets, and RPGs. In parallel, the troops directed an aerial strike on a combat compound in the area used by terrorists as a base to fire at IDF troops.”
• Intelligence-based operations also continue in Rafah, with dozens of Hamas fighters killed in the last day. Troops also dismantled several terror infrastructure sites rigged with explosives, as well as tunnel shafts in the area. In Shejaiya, troops destroyed tunnels and found equipment enabling fighters to remain underground for some time.
• Meanwhile, the death toll from Saturday’s strike on a school in Nuseirat has risen to at least 30, with Israel receiving international criticism for the incident. The IDF said: “Prior to the strike, numerous steps were taken in order to mitigate the risk of harming civilians, including the use of precise aerial surveillance and additional intelligence. The Hamas terrorist organisation systematically violates international law, exploiting civilian structures and population as human shields for its terror attacks against the State of Israel.”

Context: The so-called Biden proposal, based on an Israeli draft, which forms the basis of current talks, had already received the backing of both the US and UN. The breakthrough in this week’s talks stems largely from Hamas dropping its demand that a deal provide explicitly for a full ceasefire in the first phase.

• Analysts are suggesting that Hamas is feeling the pressure from the IDF’s intense operations in Gaza, and that awareness of the growing precariousness of its own position has led it to take a more flexible position in this round of talks.
• Its desire for a longer duration for negotiations between phases one and two of the process is thought to reflect a wish to buy time to resupply and refortify its position.
• IDF Chief of Staff Halevi on a visit to troops in central Gaza yesterday, said, “we apply military pressure in various ways. What we are doing in Rafah is different from what you are doing here, and what you are doing here is different from what is happening right now in Shejaiya or in the mission along the corridor or in the security area along the border.”
• “What is the common denominator between the different places? The common denominator is determination, the common denominator is a very high-quality way of doing these things and in the end, we go on the missions to destroy as much [terrorist] infrastructure as possible, to eliminate as many Hamas operatives as possible, to eliminate as many commanders as possible. In the end, it reduces Hamas’ capabilities, allows us to advance with the achievements, allows us to carry out a very important mission: pressure – we will continue operating to bring home the hostages.”
• There are also suggestions that domestic pressure in Gaza against Hamas is beginning to build. “An ever-increasing number of Gaza residents have mustered the courage to speak their mind on social media and even mainstream media outlets,” notes Yediot Ahronot  analyst Avi Issacharoff  today. “Hamas’s popularity in the West Bank might be at peak levels, but the impression is that things are changing in the Gaza Strip. The numerous IDF operations in Gaza City, Rafah and Khan Yunis have repeatedly displaced Palestinians. That has created anger and frustration.”
• The presence of the full senior Israeli delegation in Qatar is said to reflect the understanding that this round of negotiations is different, and the prospect of a deal more realistic.
• Defence Minister Gallant added to the cautious optimism by saying yesterday that “a limited window of opportunity has been opened before us to act on our ethical and moral duty to get the hostages back.” Of this significance of a successful deal, Gallant added that “The conditions that will be created in the wake of the deal will advance our national and security interests. Whereas the risks that might be created—the IDF and the security forces know how to overcome.”
• Optimism is tempered by an awareness that Hamas leader Sinwar may still look to sabotage an agreement, concluding that keeping the hostages as a Hamas asset is his best insurance against his own survival.
• The readiness of Netanyahu to conclude a deal, too, is far from certain, while far-right elements within the government have already demonstrated fierce opposition to a deal. Netanyahu has received assurances from both Benny Gantz and Opposition Leader Lapid, that they would support the government with a safety net to guarantee a deal.
• If the deal progresses, Netanyahu will likely face the greatest pressure once it becomes clear which Palestinian security prisoners are set to be released as part of the deal, as among them will be unrepentant terrorists guilty of the murder of Israeli citizens.
• Each instance of exposing Hamas tunnels in Gaza is significant, with recent reports suggesting that despite IDF success in other aspects of removing Hamas as a functioning military authority, a thorough decommissioning of the tunnels will take much more time.

Looking ahead: The Israeli security cabinet is set to meet today to discuss the progress made in negotiations, with more Israeli officials set to join the delegations in Egypt and Qatar.

• Hostage families and their supporters are marching from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. They are expected to reach the prime minister’s office on Saturday.

What’s happened: A husband and wife, Noa and Nir Barnes, from Kibbutz Ortal, were killed driving home yesterday afternoon when their car took a direct hit from a Hezbollah rocket in the northern Golan Heights.

• The rocket set the car on fire, with rescue services unable to save them. They leave behind three children.
• Hezbollah fired a barrage of around 40 rockets yesterday, mostly targeting IDF military sites on the Golan. Whilst some rockets were intercepted, other landed in open areas, causing several fires.
• This latest escalation was in retaliation for the death of Yasser Nimer Qarnabash, a Hezbollah operative who was killed earlier in the day in an air strike in Syria, along the Damascus-Beirut road.
• In response to the rocket fire on the Golan, the IDF attacked two Hezbollah anti-aircraft facilities, one deep inside Lebanon and the other in southern Lebanon.
• Golan Regional Council Head Uri Kellner told Army Radio this morning: “I think that we need to request and to demand: We aren’t prepared to accept this situation in which we’ve been turned into some sort of playground for the enemy. The Golan Regional Council neither was nor will it be evacuated. But this is our unequivocal demand: for them to defend and allow ongoing life here.”
• In the latest efforts at psychological warfare, Hezbollah released another video of drone footage highlighting numerous sensitive IDF military sites on the Golan.

Context: There have been several recent days of intense Hezbollah fire in the north. For example, last Thursday they launched over 150 rockets. These attacks are becoming more sustained and have reached into the lower Galilee.

• The assessment remains that both Iran and Hezbollah are keen to maintain their war of attrition, but to keep it below the threshold of all-out war.
• Whilst Hezbollah has a massive stockpile of rockets, it is running short of anti-tank missiles and is looking to Iran for resupplies.
• According to the IDF, Qarnabash was involved in the weapons smuggling from Iran, through Syria. He was also a former bodyguard to Hezbollah leader Nasrallah, making the strike personal.
• The targeted strike on Qarnabash is the latest example of Israeli intelligence identifying a senior Hezbollah figure and then using precise munitions to target him.
• The IDF is taking a holistic approach to the weapons smuggling, targeting every stage of Hezbollah efforts to restock weapons from Iran. This includes the supply chain, storage, the launching cells, and their commanders.
• Israeli media reports that as a result of several recent targeted attacks, Nasrallah has given instruction for commanders to stop using their mobile phones, which can be tracked.
• According to Hezbollah, 367 of their fighters have now been killed, with dozens more likely injured.
• Along with the two civilian deaths there was an additional IDF casualty in Gaza. First Sgt. Tal Lahat, a 21-year-old resident of Kfar Saba was killed by a sniper yesterday in the central Gaza Strip. Lahat served with the Maglan Unit in the IDF Commando Division
• The IDF remains deployed in southern and central Gaza. Troops have now been operating in Shejaiya for the last 12 days. According to the IDF they have killed over 150 terrorists, discovered and destroyed 6 tunnels and captured a large array of weapons.
• In addition, IDF troops conducted a counterterrorism operation against Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists who were operating inside UNRWA’s Headquarters and using it as a base to conduct attacks on IDF troops in the central Gaza Strip.
• According to the IDF, “after a defined corridor was opened to facilitate the evacuation of civilians from the area, IDF troops conducted a targeted raid on the structure, eliminated terrorists in close-quarters combat, and located large amounts of weapons in the area.”
• Meanwhile, the IDF are also continuing a “targeted, intelligence-based operational activity in the Rafah area in southern Gaza. Over the past day, the troops eliminated a number of terrorists, located weapons, and dismantled terrorist infrastructure in the area.”
• Hostage negotiations have been resumed. The resumption was possible due to Hamas rescinding its earlier position insisting on an explicit Israeli commitment to a ceasefire. Some are interpreting this as proof that the sustained military campaign in Gaza is putting significant pressure on Hamas and its military commanders.

Looking ahead: The fighting in Gaza is soon expected to transition to the third phase which will require a smaller IDF presence. The focus will be on targeting senior Hamas commanders, cells planning attacks and attempts to reconstitute fighting units.

• With the renewal of hostage negotiations, there is hope that a deal in the south could help bring quiet to the north too.
• In the north, with each side seeking to re-establish their deterrence, the risk of a significant escalation remains in the balance.