Iran and their Proxies

Updated May 13, 2026

Israel presses Hezbollah as Iran retains missile threat

What’s happened: The IDF announced that it had completed a complex operation in Lebanon that saw its forces go beyond the Litani River into Zawtar El Charqiyeh, roughly 10 kilometres north of the Lebanese-Israeli border.

According to the IDF, dozens of Hezbollah combatants were eliminated in the operation with a small number of Israeli soldiers lightly injured. The entire operation, though north of the Litani River, was still south of the line that Israel sees as its zone of control following the shaky ceasefire in effect for the last month.
This morning Lebanese media reported strikes on two vehicles south of Beirut. The IDF also announced it had launched a wave of air strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure sites in several areas of southern Lebanon.
This followed strikes on Hezbollah launch sites yesterday, while ground forces destroyed a large Hezbollah weapons depot in Rachaf in southern Lebanon. Ground forces operating in the area who came under threat from a Hezbollah contingent engaged them and eliminated 15 Hezbollah fighters with no losses to the IDF force.
Israel continues to seek an adequate response to the threat of Hezbollah fibre optic, First Person View (FPV) drones. An Israeli reservist, Alexander Glovanyov, 47, from Petah Tikva was killed in a drone attack over the weekend.
Leaked American intelligence assessments indicate that Iran has retained roughly 70 percent of its pre-war missile stockpile and roughly 70 percent of its mobile missile launchers. Moreover, according to the assessment, Iran restored operational access to 30 out of 33 missile sites it maintains along the Strait of Hormuz. According to a report in the New York Times, the US held back on using bunker-busting bombs on many missile sites in order to preserve them for operational contingencies in east Asia. Instead, missile sites were struck with ordinary munitions which sealed off entrances and caused significant damage, but did not entirely destroy the sites.
Amidst a resurgence in inflation linked to energy disruptions and looming midterm elections, President Trump denied that economic or electoral considerations would push him to accept a deal with Iran that didn’t meet his minimal demands. “The only thing that matters when I’m talking about Iran — they can’t have a nuclear weapon,” he said.
A group of Palestinian contractors who were due to begin the work of rebuilding the destroyed city of Rafah in the part of the Gaza Strip under Israeli control were held up at gunpoint by Hamas and prevented from crossing from the Yellow Line from the Hamas-controlled sector into the Israel-controlled sector, despite the work having been coordinated by the CMCC and the Board of Peace.
It has been widely speculated that Hamas views any reconstruction, particularly outside its zone of control, as a threat to its continued rule in the Strip. The move comes on the backdrop of new polling data indicating a dramatic drop in Gazans’ support for Hamas.

Context: The IDF’s announcement regarding the successful completion of a weeklong secret operation north of the Litani capped several days of tactical successes in Lebanon. The fact that it was the IDF that informed the world about the operation with no word from Hezbollah was a further indication of its success.

Despite the ceasefire, towns and villages in northern Israel still come under rocket and drone fire. In incidents this morning and over the weekend, drones were intercepted and sirens were not sounded.
In the month since the ceasefire went into effect, the IDF has reported eliminating some 350 Hezbollah fighters and striking roughly 1,100 Hezbollah targets.
Throughout the current round of fighting in Lebanon, which began on March 2 when Hezbollah launched rockets into northern Israel, civilians have not for the most part been evacuated from the north. A massive evacuation of northern communities in the panicked aftermath of the October 7 attack nearly three years ago is widely viewed in Israel as having been a mistake — granting Hezbollah an unearned tactical victory, costing the Treasury dearly, and disrupting families and schooling for tens of thousands.
The April 26 ceasefire left Israel in control of a small security zone in southern Lebanon, where Israeli forces have come under consistent attacks from FPV’s, fibre-optic drones operated by a long cable rather than by remote control, making them impervious to electromagnetic jamming. The IDF has scrambled to find an adequate response to this threat, while reportedly also launching a rapid manufacturing drive for its own FPV’s. Two hundred Haredi soldiers are expected to serve in the new purpose-built factory. Officials have also been studying Ukrainian tactics in meeting a similar threat over the last four years of war there.
A US-Iran deal that ends the war in the Gulf, if one is reached, is expected to drastically limit Israel’s freedom of action in Lebanon and possibly even lead to a definitive end to the fighting on this front. Israeli officials remain concerned about such a possibility, particularly if a deal does not also end or severely curtail Iran’s support for its network of regional proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Looking ahead: President Trump is expected to stay in China two more days and then return to Washington.

A renewed US aerial assault on Iran is unlikely to get underway while the President is in China, but the weekend of his return is anticipated as the moment when either a deal is struck — or the war resumes.

May 7, 2026

Israel targets elite Hezbollah commander

What’s happened: An Israeli air strike eliminated Radwan Force Commander Malek Balout. The Radwan force is Hezbollah’s elite strike force.

Balout has been its commander since January 2024 when the previous commander Wissam al-Tawil was eliminated. Under both men, the Radwan Force has been responsible for rocket fire on Israel and for preparing an October 7-style invasion of Israeli territory from the north.
Balout was eliminated in his hideout in the Dahiya quarter of Beirut. It was Israel’s first air strike in Beirut since an informal commitment to the US to refrain from striking Beirut four weeks ago in order not to destabilise the US-Iran ceasefire. It is understood that Israeli officials informed the US about the impending air strike.
In a separate incident, four IDF soldiers were wounded in a Hezbollah attack last night in southern Lebanon. One of the four is listed in a serious condition. The attack was carried out by an explosive drone. In an earlier attack, three more soldiers were wounded by an explosive drone, including one who was also listed in a serious condition.
Gaza was also the scene of an Israeli air strike, though the exact target of it remains unclear, with some media reports suggesting that a senior Hamas terrorist from the Nukhba force, which led the charge in the October 7 massacre, was targeted.
Local media reports focused on the death in the strike of Azzam al-Haya, a Hamas militant who is also the son of senior Hamas leader Khalil al-Haya, target of Israel’s unsuccessful air strike in Doha last year. Israeli officials indicated, however, that al-Haya was not the target.
The Israeli security cabinet met last night to discuss President Trump’s fourteen point proposal to conclude the war with Iran, a further indication that a successful conclusion to the negotiation process is considered a realistic possibility, even if not a guaranteed one. Prime Minister Netanyahu was keen to emphasise the high level of coordination between Jerusalem and Washington, saying yesterday, “We have full coordination between us, no surprises. We share common objectives, and the most important objective is the removal of the enriched material from Iran, all of the enriched material, dismantling enrichment capabilities in Iran. President Trump believes that he can achieve that in one way or another. But we are prepared for any scenario.”
The IDF meanwhile is still preparing for the possibility that the negotiations fail and the war resumes. Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir said yesterday that, “We have an historic opportunity to change the regional reality in the multi-theatre war. Cooperation with the US military and coordination remain constantly ongoing and we are monitoring the situation. We have another series of targets in Iran that are ready for attack. We are on heightened readiness to resume a powerful and broad war that will facilitate deepening our achievements and which will further weaken the Iranian regime.”

Context: The exact details of Trump’s proposal have not been made public, but it was reported that the Iranians were given a one-page memorandum containing fourteen points.

The memorandum stipulates a 30-day period after the agreement in principle to negotiate a detailed agreement. But already in the points would be included various commitments, such as:
- the removal of highly enriched uranium (HEU) from Iran,
- a moratorium on enrichment for an unknown number of years,
- a limit on enrichment up to 3.67% after the end of the moratorium,
- restrictions on weaponisation activities (not just on nuclear technology itself),
- restrictions on underground facilities,
- snap inspections, and
- Iranian pledge never to build a nuclear weapon.
The proposal also calls for an immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and a declaration of a formal end of US-Iran hostilities.
Some reporting mentions the inclusion of the ballistic missile programme and Iranian sponsorship of regional proxies and other reporting leaves it out.
Multiple reports in western media indicate that Iran might agree to the removal of HEU from Iran, which could explain the optimism from the White House. Even in such a case, the Iranians would be still be left with lower-grade enriched uranium which they could rapidly enrich to a higher grade if they wanted to pursue a rapid breakout to a nuclear weapon.
Overall, Israeli officials appear divided on both the question of whether an agreement is likely and on the question of whether an agreement that hues to these lines is a positive development.
Sanctions relief without limitations on Iran’s proxy network will be a vital lifeline for Israel’s most violent regional threats at precisely the moment when Israeli military action had finally degraded their capabilities.
A concession on HEU that leaves Iran with the potential to enrich again on its own might just delay a future reckoning to a less advantageous point, from the Israeli and American standpoint. An Iran that reconstitutes its ballistic missile programme outside the shadow of a rigid sanctions regime could threaten Israel in future conflicts in the region.
At the same time, there has been no indication that the Israeli-American offensive has put the regime’s grip on power in question, as was hoped by decision-makers in Jerusalem and Washington when the war was first embarked on two months ago.

Looking ahead: Iran has not responded to President Trump’s proposal, though leaks from US officials indicate the US is expecting an answer soon — and that US officials are unusually optimistic about the outcome.

Trump will be in China next week, and it is widely understood that he will want to successfully conclude the diplomatic process by then. Failing that, a renewed military offensive would likely commence upon his return on May 16.

May 5, 2026

Israel helps defend UAE

What’s happened: Iran fired 12 ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles, and four attack drones at the United Arab Emirates on Monday.

Emirati officials said one strike caused a large fire and three injuries at its key oil port of Fujairah.
The attack was condemned internationally, with Prime Minister Starmer saying the UK would continue to “support the defence of our partners in the Gulf”.
The UAE is being assisted in defence by Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile defence system, operated in the UAE by IDF personnel, which successfully intercepted one of the missiles. The current war with Iran is the first time that the advanced tech has been deployed and used operationally outside of Israel.
This latest Iranian attack came in response to President Trump’s announcing the beginning of “Project Freedom,” which seeks to ensure freedom of navigation for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The US successfully escorted two American-flagged merchant ships that passed through the southern tip of the Straits on Monday. Trump also said yesterday that the US had struck seven Iranian “fast boats.”
In Israel the IDF is also preparing itself defensively and has kept its air-defence systems on a high state of alert in readiness for a resumption of Iranian attacks.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah fired several mortars in two incidents on Monday night towards IDF troops in southern Lebanon. There were no reports of casualties.

Context: Israel’s military support for the UAE is the latest example of the strategic significance of the Abraham Accords and highlights the potential of Israel’s future alliances with other Sunni Gulf states.

According to the UAE Ministry of Defence Iran has now fired 549 ballistic missiles, 29 cruise missiles, and 2,260 attack drones against the UAE since the war began. By comparison, Iran fired around 650 missiles towards Israel, the majority of which being ballistic missiles. Thanks to Israel’s array of missile defence systems about 90 per cent of the missiles were intercepted.
Israel continues to maintain a high level of coordination with the US including at a political level and among senior military commanders.
When it comes to the prospect of relaunching attacks on Iran, it appears Israel will follow the US lead. At this point it is unclear whether the US is planning a limited operation in the Strait of Hormuz area or a broader attack. A broader attack could include striking Iranian national infrastructure, including energy facilities, roads, steel factories and gas and oil facilities.
The working Israeli assumption is that a US attack of any scope would prompt Iran to retaliate against Israel. As part of the preparation for a possible resumption of the war, thousands of aerial components and munitions have recently been flown into Israel on board cargo planes.
Israeli defence officials see the current volatility, and the potential collapse of the ceasefire that could see the resumption of hostilities. The latest assessment is that a resumption of direct fighting with Iran will lead to the immediate collapse of the fragile ceasefire with Hezbollah too. At that point Israel anticipates Hezbollah will fire missiles deep into Israeli territory.
There had been hope that the US economic stranglehold over the Straits coupled with military threats would force the Iranians to accept a deal on US terms, but this currently appears less likely. Compounding this are reports of splits within the Iranian leadership, which is also preventing them from reaching an agreement.
All this suggests a resumption of war with Iran could be inevitable. The only question is whether Trump favours a short series of harsh strikes or a resumption of a more comprehensive offensive that will continue until the Iranian regime capitulates. In this scenario Israel is thought to have prepared a bank of targets and is once more expected to join the US in striking Iran.
Fujairah port lies on the UAE’s eastern coast on the Gulf of Oman, beyond the Strait of Hormuz. A pipeline runs from Abu Dhabi’s oil fields to Fujairah, which allows oil to be shipped to international markets despite Hormuz being blockaded.

Looking ahead: In a month’s time the Israeli Air Force is expecting the delivery of the first of six Boeing KC-46 tanker aircraft, a US military aerial refuelling and strategic military transport aircraft. According to Israel’s MOD, the tanker aircraft, designated “Gideon” in Hebrew, will be “equipped with Israeli systems and adapted to the operational requirements of the Israeli Air Force, enabling it to extend operational range and maintain air superiority across all theatres.”

Israel also announced that it expects to double its fleet of US-made F-35 stealth jets from 50 to 100 and its F-15IA fleet from 25 to 50. The Israeli MOD said that procurement of these jets, “will serve as a cornerstone of the IDF’s long-term force development, addressing evolving regional threats and preserving Israel’s strategic air superiority.”
On Sunday Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israel will also simultaneously, “develop groundbreaking Israeli-made aircraft. This will change the entire picture.”
He also related to the ongoing drone threat from Hezbollah, confirming he commissioned a “special project” to thwart the threat, adding, “it will take time, but we are on it.”

April 29, 2026

Hezbollah drone attacks expose limits of Lebanon ceasefire

What’s happened: Israel suffered another casualty in southern Lebanon, when an Israeli civilian working as a contractor for the Defence Ministry was killed in a Hezbollah drone attack yesterday.

Amer Hujirat, 44 years old from Shfaram was operating heavy engineering machinery supporting the IDF near Bint Jbeil in southern Lebanon. His 19-year-old son was working with him at the time and was lightly injured in the attack.
Once more, Hezbollah used a fibre optic-guided drone in the attack, as it did in the attack earlier this week which killed Sgt. Idan Fooks. These drones, also known as FPV’s, cannot be electronically jammed. The only method to defeat to them is to shoot them down, which has proven to be difficult. Hezbollah has made extensive use of this weapon in the last two weeks, which it apparently started using as far back as 2024.
The IDF destroyed two enormous tunnels in southern Lebanon that had been built by Hezbollah over the course of the last decade. The two tunnels were located about 11 km north of the border with Israel and reached about 26 metres underground. One was 700 metres long and the other 1200 metres long, and they were not connected to each other.
The two tunnel compounds contained living quarters, staging areas, and access routes to launch sites, as well as large weapons stores. Each could have been used by hundreds of Hezbollah fighters to launch an October 7-style invasion of northern Israel. They were discovered by the IDF during the intense fighting which broke out in March following Hezbollah rocket attacks.
Captured Hezbollah fighters provided crucial intelligence that allowed the IDF to clear out the tunnels and eventually destroy them yesterday in a massive controlled explosion that used 500 tons of explosives and was so large that it registered on seismographs in northern Israel as an earthquake.

Context: The informal ceasefire, where low-level attacks continue, but where Israel refrains from retaliating in Beirut due to limitations imposed by the US so as not to interfere with the ongoing negotiations in Iran, continues.

Israeli frustration with this informal ceasefire, which leaves IDF soldiers behind the forward defensive line, but vulnerable to attacks without Israel having the means to exact a price for attacks on its soldiers, has become a source of frustration for the army.
At the same time, the US continues to push Israel and Lebanon to reach a diplomatic agreement that would exceed the measures of a ceasefire, even if it might fall short of a full peace treaty. Media reports have indicated that Egypt too has taken on a mediator role in the negotiations. European governments too have indicated that they would be willing to help Lebanon carry out a disarmament of Hezbollah, a sentiment echoed publicly by EU Commission President von der Leyen.
The holding pattern of the Lebanon fighting exists at the insistence of the United States while it pursues a negotiated settlement in the larger conflict with Iran, of which the Lebanon conflict remains a secondary front. On Monday, the Iranians proposed a deal through Pakistani intermediaries that would have seen an immediate end to their blockade of the Straits of Hormuz as well as the American blockade on Iranian ports as a first step to further negotiations on the nuclear programme. It also would have committed the U.S. to a full end to the war with Iran. The Trump administration appears to have rejected this proposal.
As the US continues to build up its forces in the region in anticipation of a possible collapse of the ceasefire which has been in effect for more than three weeks now, the administration has begun signalling publicly in the last day that might prefer a long-term economic squeeze on Iran over either of the two options that were until very recently seen as the most likely — a negotiated agreement or a renewal of the war with a massive attack on Iranian infrastructure.
The negotiations that have taken place have dealt exclusively with the Iranian nuclear programme and not, as far as is publicly known, with either the Iranian ballistic missile programme or with Iran’s support of it proxy network in the region. This has led to a great deal of frustration on the part of Israeli officials, who, in leaks to local media, also indicate that Jerusalem is not always fully updated on the diplomatic developments or American positions regarding Iran.
The talks included various proposals for moving highly enriched uranium out of Iran, but foundered on the American insistence on a 20-year commitment from Iran not to engage in enrichment activities. The Iranians, according to Pakistanis mediators, were unwilling to commit to more than five years.
Assuming that gap could be bridged, an agreement along the lines discussed would an unwelcome development from the Israeli perspective. It would leave Iran free to develop more ballistic missiles, and the lifting of sanctions would rescue a regime precisely at its weakest moment, while allowing to further finance its terrorist proxies closer to Israel. At the same time, a new round of fighting without a decisive conclusion or an American “declaration of victory” and departure could be even worse. The possibility of a continued blockade on Iran while a temporary ceasefire remains in place could be the least bad option.
The US too, appears to coming to that conclusion — or at the very least, wanting to create a public impression that is coming to that conclusion. Multiple reports today in US media quoted Trump administration officials as preparing for an extended blockade of Iran as the US’s best near-term strategy, with officials estimating that the economic costs to Iran of the status quo are much higher than they are to the US or its allies. Iran has apparently taken to “junk storage” of oil surpluses, as unsold oil, blocked in port by the US Navy, has filled its existing storage capacities and left it in a position where it might soon need to halt production altogether.

Looking ahead: Trump has extended the ceasefire indefinitely as long as negotiations are underway.

At the same time, the US continues its force buildup in the region, with a third carrier strike group arriving this week. The USS George HW Bush joins the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Gerald R Ford, already in theatre.
Some 50,000 ground troops are also stationed across the region in American bases, a significant change from the buildup that presaged the February 28 launch of hostilities.

April 23, 2026

Israel marks Independence Day amid fragile ceasefires

What’s happened: Israel celebrated 78 years of statehood yesterday. It was the first Independence Day Israel has marked since the October 7 invasion and massacre without any hostages being held in Gaza.

The State of Israel’s population stands at 10.2 million people, more than twelvefold since the state was founded in 1948. This includes 7.8 million Jews, roughly 45% of the world’s total.
Celebrations of Israel’s independence took place throughout the country yesterday without incident, as ceasefires in wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran mostly held. An exception to that was a Hezbollah rocket attack on IDF positions in southern Lebanon and several nearby Israeli communities inside northern Israel on Tuesday evening.
Today, ambassadors to the United States from both Israel and Lebanon will renew talks begun at the beginning of the ceasefire last week. They will be joined by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and, for the first time, by the US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee.
The White House outlined its public positions on the Iran conflict yesterday, with White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt emphasising the US position on the nuclear issue, rather than on other issues which had been raised earlier such as Iran’s ballistic missile programme or its network of regional proxies. “Iran can never obtain a nuclear bomb to threaten the United States and our allies,” she told reporters, “and they must turn over the enriched uranium that’s in their possession.”
Both the US and Iran released videos of their forces enforcing their respective blockades. US videos showed a forced boarding of a ship near the Strait of Hormuz and of another unflagged ship, linked to Iran, in the Indo-Pacific, which was carrying 2 million barrels of Iranian oil that had been loaded at Kharg Island.
The US blockade operation has been called Operation Economic Fury, following on the kinetic campaign which was known as Operation Epic Fury. Iranian forces fired on and disabled at least three ships attempting to transit into the Gulf of Oman through the Straits.

Context: The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah declared on April 16 was due to last ten days. It did not stipulate any territorial changes, but rather kept positions frozen in place, leaving the IDF in control of swathe of Lebanese territory a few kilometres deep.

The Lebanese proposal to extend the ceasefire by one month (ten days in some media reports) would maintain these positions, and not require any withdrawals by the IDF. But the Lebanese proposal includes a demand that Israel stop demolitions inside the zone of southern Lebanon that it holds and would presumably continue to hold for the additional month of a ceasefire extension.
Israeli media report that some 20 Lebanese villages abutting the Israeli border are in the process of being demolished by Israeli bulldozers, many of which have been moved up from Gaza to complete the mission as quickly as possible.
In previous rounds of fighting, the IDF has watched as Hezbollah accessed weapons caches stored in residences in these villages and used them to conduct attacks on Israeli border communities. Particularly problematic from the Israeli perspective was the use of anti-tank fire on homes in Israeli communities along the border.
The present demolitions are intended to ensure that this pattern is not repeated, even in the event of a full Israeli withdrawal at some future point.
This fits into a larger Israeli lesson learned since the October 7 attacks. At the time, Israel made the decision to evacuate frontline communities on the northern border at the same time that a similar evacuation was necessary along the Gaza envelope.
For more than a year, tens of thousands (well over 100,000 at one point) of Israelis from both north and south were in temporary housing and hotels. Israeli officials have largely come to see the northern evacuation as a mistake that handed Hezbollah an unjustified victory.
While the US waits to see if Iran will moderate its position on any of the issues under negotiation, its naval blockade continues. So too do preparations for a renewed aerial assault on Iran to begin immediately with the end of the ceasefire. The US has now positioned a third aircraft carrier in the vicinity. Israeli officials anticipate that a renewed US air operation would last several days and would target Iran’s energy infrastructure.
Recent days have also seen repeated reports of another global power’s increasing involvement in efforts to hammer out a deal — China. Beijing is reportedly pressuring Iran to reach a compromise with the United States that would reopen the Straits of Hormuz, whose closure threatens China’s economy far more than it does those of the US and its Western allies.

Looking ahead: The ceasefire in Lebanon is due to expire on April 26. Efforts are underway in Washington to mediate a durable agreement between Israel and Lebanon, or, failing that, to extend the ceasefire so that negotiations can continue. The Lebanese have requested a one-month extension on the ceasefire. Israel’s position on this possibility is not publicly known.

The ceasefire declared in Iran on April 8 was originally due to last only two weeks. According to multiple US media reports, all sides have agreed to extend it until at least this coming Sunday. This would put the expiration of the Iran ceasefire on the same day as the expiration of the Lebanon ceasefire.
The parallel blockades have hurt all sides in the conflict, but don’t appear to be driving anyone to moderate their positions. The IMF warned this week that in a “severe scenario” of long-term blockade, global GDP could decline by 2% in 2026.

April 20, 2026

Iranian proxy targets London Jewish sites

What’s happened: Police have opened an investigation into Iranian links to a series of arson attacks on Jewish targets in London.

On Saturday night, Kenton United Synagogue was targeted in an arson attack; two teenagers were arrested.
Chief Rabbi Sir Ephraim Mirvis said the Kenton fire, which did not cause any significant damage, was the third “cowardly” attack on Jewish sites in London in less than a week.
Posting on X Mirvis said, “A sustained campaign of violence and intimidation against the Jewish community of the UK is gathering momentum…Thank God, no lives have been lost, but we cannot, and must not, wait for that to change before we understand just how dangerous this moment is for all of our society.”
On Friday night, there was another attempted arson attack on a building with links to the Jewish community, while last week, police arrested two suspects over an attempted arson attack on another synagogue in the capital.
Prime Minister Starmer said, “This is abhorrent, and it will not be tolerated. Attacks on our Jewish community are attacks on Britain.”
The Pro-Iranian group Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia (HAYI) or Movement of the Companions of the Right Hand of Islam, has said it is responsible, and posted a video purporting to show the attack on the Kenton synagogue on social media.

Context: Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia (HAYI) are a recently established Iranian proxy group. They have only been active since Israel and the US began their military campaign against Iran on 28th February 2026, and are likely part of Tehran’s retaliation strategy against Israel.

HAYI’s activities are assessed as almost certainly being part of a broader Iranian intelligence service-led psychological warfare campaign against Israel using diaspora Jewish communities as a proxy target.
HAYI represent a low-cost and low-risk asset which is almost certainly easy to operate with a degree of deniability, yet able to achieve significant cognitive effects on an adversary target audience, as well as divert responding local security agency resources.
Often described as a cut-out, they primarily exist on Telegram and are not believed to have members in a traditional sense. They are assessed as likely being controlled and directed by an Iranian intelligence service, i.e. the IRGC.
HAYI target Jewish and Zionist organisations with relatively unsophisticated arson attacks. Rather than attempting spectacular attacks to maximise casualties, HAYI tends to use or claims to have used incendiary devices or drones against these organisations, then creates videos of the attacks which are uploaded onto Iranian-linked Telegram channels.
HAYI’s claimed attacks include:
- An explosion at a synagogue in Liege, Belgium on 9th March.
- A claimed attack on an unspecified site in Greece on 11th March. No evidence of any such attack has been found.
- An arson attack on a synagogue in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, on 13th March.
- An explosion at a Jewish school in Amsterdam, the Netherlands on 14th March.
- An arson attack on ambulances belonging to the Hatzolo charity in Golders Green, London on 23rd March. HAYI claimed that the adjacent synagogue was targeted.
- An attack against the Bank of America in Paris was foiled by French authorities in on 29th March. The bank had been named as a potential target on HAYI’s Telegram channel.
- A failed arson attack at a synagogue in Finchley, London, on 15th April.
- An arson attack at Iran International’s parent company’s studios in Park Royal, London on 15th April
- A claimed radioactive drone attack against the Israeli Embassy in Kensington, London, on 16th April. The Metropolitan Police and Israeli MFA have since confirmed that the Embassy was not attacked.
- A failed arson attack at a Jewish charity (Jewish Futures) with links to Israel’s former offices in Hendon, London on 17th April.
- A failed arson attack at a synagogue in Kenton, London on 18th April.
While investigations have been led or supported by Counter Terrorism Policing, they are being treated as antisemitic hate crimes rather than terrorist attacks.
The Metropolitan Police have said that the arson attack on Jewish Futures was “not being linked to other incidents in the northwest London area over the last week or last month’s arson in Golders Green”.
This is likely due to a level of distance between HAYI and its assessed Iranian intelligence service sponsors, as well as the fact that the group has not yet been proscribed. If HAYI were to be proscribed then acts linked to them would likely be investigated by Counter Terrorism Policing by default. It could also make sharing their videos an offence under Section 12 of the Terrorism Act 2000.
HAYI’s Telegram channel was deactivated shortly after March’s Golders Green attack. It peaked with approximately 200 followers. Footage of its attacks are now distributed on other major Iranian regime-linked channels including Sabereen News and Almihwar News.
HAYI’s agents are assessed as highly likely to be recruited online with promises of payment after providing evidence of following their handlers’ instructions, primarily using encrypted messaging apps such as Signal or Telegram to communicate.
In line with other examples of Russian and Iranian-sponsored espionage and terrorist activities against the UK and Israel, recruits typically lack a particular religious or ideological affinity for those they act on behalf of, and are motivated by money.
For example, both the Wagner Group and Iranian intelligence services have contracted local or European criminals to act on their behalf in the UK, i.e. to attack and burn down Ukrainian-owned businesses or conduct surveillance on Iran International’s studios.

Looking ahead: President Trump’s two week deadline for negotiations with Iran expires on Wednesday.

Whilst significant gaps remain between the US and Iranian position, it remains unclear if they will reach an agreement or the deadline will be extended or there will be a resumption of hostilities.

April 16, 2026

Trump announces Netanyahu and Aoun due to speak directly

What’s happened: President Trump announced that leaders of Israel and Lebanon are due to speak to each other directly today.

Prime Minister Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun are expected to discuss efforts to reach a ceasefire in the Israeli-Lebanese war raging since Hezbollah launched rocket attacks on northern Israel on March 2, violating a ceasefire that had been in place since November 2024.
Direct talks were held yesterday in Washington between Israel’s ambassador to the US Yehiel Leiter and his Lebanese counterpart Nada Hamadeh Moawad, together with US Secretary of State Rubio. A joint statement issued by the three parties said only that they had held “productive discussions toward launching direct negotiations.”
The war was still ongoing this morning, despite reports in Lebanese media that a ceasefire might go into effect overnight. Israeli operations have been limited to southern Lebanon, apparently in line with a US demand not to launch further strikes on Beirut following a large air strike on April 8.
Hezbollah rocket fire and drone strikes on towns and villages in northern Israel continued as well both last night and this morning, with no fatalities reported and one injury in the Arab town of Tamra.
In southern Lebanon, one IDF soldier was seriously wounded and four other lightly wounded in a Hezbollah rocket attack.
On the ground, the IDF continues to operate in and around the Hezbollah stronghold of Bint Jbeil. Commenting on that battle and the larger war, Netanyahu said last night, “We are about to decisively defeat Bint Jbeil, to eliminate this large Hezbollah stronghold. Meanwhile, yesterday I instructed the IDF to continue to reinforce the security zone, and to expand it eastward to the slopes of Mount Hermon so that we might be able to help even better our Druze brothers during their time of need.”
Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir visited IDF troops in southern Lebanon yesterday. Speaking with soldiers, he reported that the IDF estimates it has eliminated 1,700 Hezbollah fighters since the war broke out in March. He also said that he had already approved operational plans for further combat in both Lebanon and Iran, to be implemented should ceasefire talks fail.
Regarding the competing blockades around the Strait of Hormuz, CENTCOM reported that ten ships had been turned around by the US naval blockade. At the same time, it appears at least two US-sanctioned supertankers made it into the Gulf despite the US blockade. Some media reports have indicated that Iran might consider letting ships pass through the Omani side of the Straits of Hormuz without hindrance, but it was unclear if this proposal was relating to a comprehensive settlement or a confidence-building measure while talks were ongoing.

Context: Direct talks between a Lebanese and Israeli leader, much less publicly known direct talks, would be highly unusual, as Lebanese law technically still forbids any kind of communication of any Lebanese citizen with any Israeli.

Israel’s demands for a ceasefire with Lebanon are a revised and improved version of the ceasefire that ended the previous round of fighting in November 2024. As in the 2024 ceasefire, Israel insists on full freedom of action for the IDF to operate in Lebanon to enforce provisions of the ceasefire, both north and south of the Litani River. Also in line with the earlier ceasefire, Israel insists on a Lebanese commitment to disarm Hezbollah. But in the new ceasefire, Israel would like to see this actually carried out, and is therefore insisting on some form of US oversight for the disarmament.
A more dramatic departure from previous ceasefire regards territory. In the previous ceasefire, Israel held on to five strongpoints in southern Lebanon, with a long-term commitment to withdraw. In current discussions, Israel is asking for a buffer zone to be established which would be completely clear of Hezbollah presence (it is unclear if in the immediate term civilians evacuated from these areas would be allowed to return, especially those in areas that would place Israelis in range of anti-tank fire).
The implication of such a buffer zone would be a longer-term IDF presence until some kind of more stable diplomatic arrangement can be negotiated. Notably, according to reports in Israeli media at least, Lebanon itself has not insisted on an immediate or full withdrawal of Israeli forces from its territory.
Another minor taboo that was broken in the initial talks between Israel and Lebanon was the discussion of economic issues. A weakening of Hezbollah by Israel followed by a full disarmament by the Lebanese state under US supervision is expected to open the door to massive investment and reconstruction by two large US allies in the region, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
This has introduced a new incentive for Lebanon to do what it has been unable or unwilling to do until now. Especially it has been in a deep economic crisis now for over a decade.
All sides agree that the war in Lebanon is a secondary front to the larger war between Iran on one side and the US and Israel on the other.

Looking ahead: Based on leaks to the media, the initial round of US-Iran talks last week was not the complete failure it had been largely reported to have been and negotiations are set to continue, even after Vice President Vance’s departure from Islamabad.

Pakistani efforts to mediate between the sides, along with parallel efforts from Turkey and Egypt, have yielded a few areas of possible consensus.
According to media reports, the US is prepared to establish a $250 billion aid fund for Iran in the event of an agreed conclusion to the war that meets its demands.
It is willing to recognise Iran’s right to a civilian nuclear programme, while insisting on a 20-year ban on enrichment. It is also demanding that Iran turn over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
The Iranians, for their part, have proposed depleting the highly enriched uranium they still have on Iranian soil with international supervision, which would also make it unusable for weapons purposes.
Negotiations between the US and Iran are also reported to cover both the fighting in Lebanon and the position of the Houthis in Yemen. At the same time, there are no public reports that the talks have touched upon an issue that was central to both the US and Israeli war effort, namely the Iranian ballistic missile programme.

April 13, 2026

US prepares naval blockade of Iran after Islamabad talks collapse

What’s happened: Vice President JD Vance left Islamabad after the highest level of diplomatic contact between Iran and the United States in nearly half a century failed to yield an agreement.

According to Iranian sources, the main areas of contention were the Straits of Hormuz, Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU), and the question of war reparations. The US has demanded an immediate reopening of the Straits, which have been blocked by Iran in recent weeks, and had earlier indicated that the Iranians had a agreed to reopen it as a condition for the ceasefire.
The US has also demanded that all of Iran’s stockpile of HEU be handed over to a third country. Over the past week, there were conflicting reports regarding Iranian flexibility on the issue, but ultimately there was not an agreement in Islamabad. Iran has also demanded reparations for damage from Israeli and US air strikes, and there is no indication that this is something US negotiators took seriously.
Following the collapse of talks in Islamabad, President Trump announced a US naval blockade of all shipping to and from Iran in the Persian Gulf. Since Iran began blockading non-Iranian shipping in the Strait, its vessels have been among the only ones to transit the Strait. A successful US blockade would cut Iran off from this economic lifeline, but it would also further exacerbate strained energy markets.
The UK has ruled out taking any part in the US-led naval blockade.
Before the war, roughly 150 vessels transited through the Straits on average day. The same number, 150, transited in the entire month of March — daily average of 5 ships. In the first four days of the ceasefire, 40 ships have transited, a daily average of 10, double the number during the war, but still fall below prewar levels. It is not known whether any of these paid tolls or made other financial arrangements with Iranian authorities to do so.
In a media interview, Trump hinted that US and Iranian negotiators had closed gaps on a number of issues (without specifying), but that the Iranians couldn’t come to agreement because they refused to give up their nuclear programme. Pakistani officials speaking to US media played down the significance of the talks’ failure, with one saying that “the talks are not dead. There’s a stalemate.”

Context: Despite Israel and the US planning and executing the war as partners, Israel is not involved in the ceasefire talks and remained concerned over the weekend that a deal could be agreed that would not meet their red lines.

Israel continues to insist with the backing of the US that the ceasefire with Iran does not include Lebanon, but nevertheless it has scaled back the intensity of its offensive, and avoided striking Beirut over the last few days.
The most significant combat is currently focused on the small southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil, where a large contingent of Hezbollah fighters is holed up and surrounded by the IDF. Yesterday Hezbollah fighters were seen using the Bint Jbeil hospital for surveillance and for transferring and storing weapons. The IDF raided the facility, captured weapons, and eliminated 20 Hezbollah terrorists.
Bint Jbeil was the site of a pitched battle in the 2006 Second Lebanon War. An unsuccessful IDF operation to take the town in the second week of the war became a particularly traumatic turning point in the war.
At the same time Hezbollah continues to fire missiles, rockets and drones towards northern Israel.
In parallel, Israel is preparing to enter into direct talks with Lebanon through their respective emissaries in Washington.
The last time such a high-profile meeting of Lebanese and Israeli officials took place was at the Madrid Peace Conference in 1991. That conference led to additional talks in Moscow between Israel and some of the participants, but the Lebanese ultimately pulled out. Direct talks during the First Lebanon War led to a rarely remembered peace treaty in 1983, but this was never ratified by Lebanon, and under intense domestic and regional pressure, not least from the Assad regime in Syria, Lebanon formally abrogated the treaty in 1984.
Meanwhile in Gaza the US have submitted to Hamas their detailed plan for the Strip’s demilitarisation. US officials have made clear that they expect Hamas’ answer to the proposal this week. Without an agreement on disarmament, the ceasefire will stall, and it is possible that the IDF will renew its offensive in Gaza, but this time without the need to hold back its firepower as Hamas no longer holds Israeli hostages.
The US-led Board of Peace has demanded that Hamas agree to a disarmament and in exchange Israeli forces would withdraw from most of the 53% of the Gaza Strip where the IDF is currently present, and redeploy instead to a narrow buffer zone. An agreement on disarmament would also end restrictions on the entry of essential goods, provide for an amnesty for Hamas fighters, and facilitate the entry of trailers for temporary shelter to replace tents.
The implementation of such an agreement would also see the entry into Gaza of two new bodies envisioned by the comprehensive ceasefire plan. The first is the Palestinian committee of technocrats charged with running the day-to-day affairs of the Strip as a transitional governing body. These have already been appointed, but not allowed into Gaza. The second is the International Stabilisation Force, charged with security on the ground and ceasefire enforcement. The makeup of this force is still not entirely clear. But like the governing body, its arrival would only come following an agreement on demilitarisation. (The future of Gaza governance is explained in this BICOM short.)

Looking ahead: The US blockade of the Strait is due to go into effect this evening.

Talks between the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors to the US are due to begin tomorrow.

April 10, 2026

Israel to begin direct negotiations with Lebanon

What’s happened: On Thursday night Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that, “Following repeated requests from the Lebanese government to open peace negotiations with us, last night I instructed the Cabinet to begin direct negotiations with Lebanon.”

He added that the talks would have two goals: “First, the disarming of Hezbollah. Second, a historic, sustainable peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon.”
At the same time he sought to reassure the residents of the north that currently, “there is no ceasefire in Lebanon. We are continuing to strike Hezbollah with full force, and we will not stop until we restore your security.”
Late Thursday night, a single missile fired by Hezbollah at central Israel was intercepted. Nobody was injured and no damage was caused. Earlier, missiles were fired at Haifa and Haifa Bay. Some were intercepted and others fell in uninhabited areas. Hezbollah also continued to fire rockets at border communities throughout the night. Nobody was injured and no damage was caused.
Earlier this week the IDF conducted the largest coordinated strike across Lebanon since the start of the war. According to the IDF, “within 10 minutes and across multiple areas simultaneously,” the IDF targeted “more than 100 Hezbollah command centres and military sites.”
The IDF added that most of the infrastructure struck “was located within the heart of the civilian population, as part of Hezbollah’s cynical exploitation of Lebanese civilians as human shields in order to safeguard its operations. Prior to the strikes, steps were taken to mitigate harm to uninvolved individuals as much as possible.”
Lebanese officials are divided over the prospects of talks with Israel, with some trying to condition them on first reaching a ceasefire, whilst others who oppose Hezbollah think negotiations should be held even under fire.

Context: As the fragile, temporary ceasefire with Iran holds, Israel continues to insist that Lebanon is not included in the ceasefire.

Despite Iranian and Pakistani claims to the contrary, various senior US officials have backed Israel’s position, including Vice President JD Vance who told reporters yesterday that, “the Iranians thought that the ceasefire included Lebanon, and it just didn’t. We never made that promise. We never indicated that was going to be the case. What we said is that the ceasefire would be focused on Iran, and the ceasefire would be focused on America’s allies, both Israel and the Gulf Arab states.” White House Press Secretary Leavitt added that, “Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire. That has been related to all parties involved in the ceasefire.”
Israel sees this as a favourable position that poses a dilemma to Iran. If Iran continues to hold its fire, it will have abandoned Hezbollah, whilst if Iran opens fire, it will cause Israel and the US to resume strikes with greater intensity.
Pakistan, the new intermediaries in the ceasefire, drew international criticism, as their Defence Minister, Khawaja Asif stated In now-deleted post on X (formerly Twitter) that “Israel is evil and a curse for humanity” going on to say “I hope and pray people who created this cancerous state on Palestinian land to get rid of European jews burn in hell.”
Within Israel there are mixed views over the successes garnered throughout the war. IDF Chief of Staff Zamir declared on Thursday the achievements in the war against Iran are “unprecedented and historic. The Iran from before this war is not the same Iran; it is much weaker. We are prepared to return to intense fighting at any given moment if required.” Nevertheless there is concern over how to translate the military achievements into a strategic victory, particularly regarding Iran’s remaining stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
In the background, the US has also encouraged the Israeli government to pursue the direct talks with Lebanon. This followed significant comments from Lebanese President Joseph Aoun from the beginning of the war when he explicitly blamed Hezbollah for dragging Lebanon into the conflict and even called for efforts to reach normalisation with Israel.
This was a significant positive development that reflects the domestic anger toward Hezbollah for importing a conflict at the behest of Iran against the interests of the Lebanese population. Israel did not formally respond to Aoun’s proposal until last night.
Despite Israel’s public commitment to continue striking Hezbollah, it is expected that the intensity will now be reduced. However the IDF’s ground operation is expected to continue with efforts focused at removing Hezbollah’s military infrastructure in southern Lebanon. The IDF are also expected to retaliate against Hezbollah for any attacks on Israel’s home front.
According to the Lebanese Health Ministry, 1,888 Lebanese have been killed although they do not distinguish between Hezbollah operatives and civilians. According to the Israeli military over 1,400 Hezbollah members have so far been eliminated during the war.
The starting point for the talks is expected to be based on UN Resolution 1701 from 2006, that never fully implemented the removal of all terrorist infrastructure south of the Litani River. In addition Lebanon is expected to reaffirm its commitment to the agreement signed in November, 2024. Significantly, this authorised Israel to continue to target Hezbollah fighters and in general prevent their efforts to rearm.
In response to the latest developments, the UK government has taken a position questioning Israel’s ongoing actions against Hezbollah. Asked about the Israeli strikes on Hezbollah, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said, “That shouldn’t be happening. That should stop. That’s my strong view,” adding that “it’s not a technical matter, but a matter of principle.” Starmer made the remarks in Bahrain during his trip to the Middle East. The same position was also shared by the Foreign and Defence Secretaries, in a development that appears to further strain the special relationship between the UK and the US.
Behind the scenes it is thought that Israel and Lebanon have been exchanging messages for more than a year. Both governments have a shared interest in limiting Hezbollah outsized influence, with the efforts thought to include intelligence sharing of the movements of Hezbollah members and the locations of its hidden weapons storehouses.
There remains residual concern over whether the Lebanese Armed Forces are either unwilling or unable to confront Hezbollah, which is also why Israel insists on retaining its freedom of operation.

Looking ahead: Direct negotiations are expected to begin next week in Washington.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has tasked Israel’s ambassador to the US Yechiel Leiter to represent Israel.
The US Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa will facilitate the talks. The Lebanese delegation will be headed by Simon Karam, a former Lebanese ambassador to the US and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, leader of the Shiite Amal Party.

April 7, 2026

Family of four killed in Haifa as IDF deepens campaign in Iran and Lebanon

What’s happened: In Haifa, a family of four were killed in their apartment on Sunday by an Iranian missile. It was the second deadliest incident of the war so far, behind only the attack on the synagogue in Beit Shemesh which killed nine people on the second day of the war.

Nearly all missiles are intercepted, but a small percentage get through, including illegal cluster munitions, which spread bomblets over a wide ares. Such was the case yesterday with a cluster munitions which hit homes around the Tel Aviv area, causing injuries but no fatalities.
The Israeli home front continues to face barrages of missiles and rocket fire from Iran, Lebanon, and occasionally Yemen. Along Israel’s northern border, constant rocket fire has made normal life impossible for the last four weeks. In the rest of the country, missile alerts send citizens into shelters multiple times a day, but most routines are otherwise unaffected.
In nearly forty days of fighting so far, 27 Israelis have been killed by Iranian missile fire. 30 were killed in the Twelve Day War last June.
Sgt. First Class Guy Ludar, 21 of Yuvalim in northern Israel, was killed in combat in southern Lebanon over the weekend. Ludar was accidentally killed by friendly fire during an engagement with Hezbollah terrorists in Shebaa just across the border. Another IDF soldier was wounded in the incident, and a wanted Hezbollah terrorist was captured.
Meanwhile the IDF continues its offensive in two theatres of operation.
Over the weekend, the IDF successfully targeted more leading figures in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including Majid Khademi, the IRGC’s chief of intelligence, and Yazdan Mir, the head of the IRGC’s Unit 840, its clandestine force charged with attacks and assassinations outside Iran.
The IDF also struck key economic and infrastructure targets in Iran over the weekend. In the city of Mahshahr, Iran’s largest petrochemical industrial complex was taken completely offline as a result of an Israeli air strike. Iran’s two largest steel factories were also shut down due to extensive damage from Israeli air strikes.
Overnight, the IDF also struck several military airports in and around Tehran, destroying the IRGC’s Air Force headquarters.
Media reports in the US, including in The New York Times, indicated some Israeli involvement in the successful US operation to rescue both crew members of the F-15 which was downed by Iranian fire deep in Iranian territory.
The IDF also reported striking 140 targets in Lebanon connected to Hezbollah and the Iranian regime. This morning the IDF reported having completed its takeover of the first line of mountain ridges beyond the northern border.
In terms of territory, this amounts to only a few kilometres, but it is intended to eliminate the threat of anti-tank missiles being fired at Israeli homes in front-line communities. This tactic, used by Hezbollah from October 2023 when it first launched a war on Israel following Hamas’s October 7 massacre, led to extensive destruction and made agricultural and communal life in Israeli border communities impossible.

Context: After five weeks of nonstop aerial strikes agains Iran, the IDF announced that it finished strikes against “vital” targets, those connected to Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes, and had moved to “secondary” targets, those connected to the regime’s economic viability.

Negotiations between Iran and the US are liable to consign Israeli concerns to a lower priority, so for Israel it is crucial now that if the regime does survive and, especially, if it still retains the 450 kg of enriched uranium which is believed to be buried deeply under the rubble of facilities damaged in last June’s Twelve Day War, then its ability to recover should be as limited and protracted as possible.
A ceasefire will leave Iran in a much weakened state, with any threat from it to Israel pushed off into the future. But, by universal consensus in Israel, it will not succeed in fundamentally reorienting that threat unless the regime itself falls, something Israeli officials hope will happen in short order once the war ends, but cannot guarantee one way or another.
Israeli assessments regarding Hezbollah’s current capabilities are mixed. This is true both tactically and strategically.
- Tactically, even a decapitated and isolated Hezbollah, routed by the IDF in September-November 2024 and cut off from its weapons land bridge by the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024, was still able to regroup and rearm beyond some of Israel’s earlier assessments.
- Strategically, no independent source of power in Lebanon and no international coalition of diplomatic partners has assembled the kind of incentive structure that would cause the Lebanese on their own to firmly move outside the orbit of Iranian dominance by means of Hezbollah’s weapons and infrastructure.
Pronouncements about the “banning” of Hezbollah or international efforts to “strengthen” the supposedly independent Lebanese Armed Forces have not fundamentally changed the fact that Lebanon is a country that enters wars with its southern neighbour based on the security needs and ideological and theological commitments of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Regarding the ongoing war there are competing assessments and directives as well. Multiple leaks from senior IDF officers indicate that fully disarming Hezbollah is not considered a realistic goal of the current offensive. Leading ministers in Government are widely quoted as insisting that the war in Lebanon will continue even if a ceasefire is reached in Iran.
The IDF’s territorial advance reflects the limited strategic goals. Israeli forces have cleared a buffer zone of six to ten kilometres from the border, taking frontline villages and towns out of range of anti-tank and sniper fire. But they have not reached the Litani River and do not, for now, appear to be moving in that direction.
IDF assessments are that at least 1,000 Hezbollah fighters have been killed in the last five weeks of hostilities. While Israeli officials acknowledge being surprised by Hezbollah’s ability to rearm after the November 2024 ceasefire, they also speak openly about being surprised in the other direction by its poor performance in battle in each tactical encounter with advancing IDF regiments. In particular, the “elite” Radwan force has proven far less effective than feared, and captured fighters interrogated by the IDF reveal a decidedly low motivation among its troops.

Looking ahead: The deadline for Trump’s ultimatum expires later today. The President has demanded Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz. If not, he has threatened strikes Iranian power plants and bridges. “Every power plant in Iran will be out of business, burning, exploding and never to be used again,” he again warned last night, adding that “it will take them 100 years to rebuild.”

Israel too has issued a threat today to target significant Iranian infrastructure, warning Iranian citizens to stay away from all trains and rail lines until at least 9:00pm tonight.With Trump’s deadline looming, various initiatives for partial or temporary ceasefires have been floated, all involving some kind of opening of the vital Strait while negotiations begin on other outstanding issues.
Pakistan has put forward a proposal for a 45-day ceasefire that would immediately open the Strait to shipping traffic. Neither the US nor Iran have shown any public enthusiasm for the Pakistani proposal, with the Iranians putting forward an alternative ten-point plan whose details have not been made public. The Iranian proposal is believed to include a guarantee that the war would not restart following the ceasefire, a stipulation unlikely to be accepted by the Americans.
Oman too is involved in mediation, and the Omanis have floated the idea of a (possibly temporary) joint administration of the Strait of Hormuz by Oman and Iran.
Vice President JD Vance is en route to Hungary. American officials told reporters that his schedule could be readjusted if needed to meet Iranian officials or conduct indirect talks with them.

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