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Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Key background
  • Hamas is an Islamist Palestinian nationalist movement which currently governs the Gaza Strip. It is proscribed by the UK and in the majority of western countries.
  • Its primary state backers are Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. It is also active in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon.
  • Since seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has continuously launched attacks against Israel and weaponised civilian infrastructure by embedding itself into schools, mosques, and hospitals.
  • Hamas’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel killed 1200, and over 250 hostages were subsequently taken to the Gaza Strip.

Updated March 4, 2024

Ceasefire negotiations stall

What’s happened: After what had initially appeared to be a promising week of negotiations, talks between Israel and Hamas have now stalled.

  • While Israel is understood to have agreed in principle to a six-week ceasefire in exchange for the release of elderly, unwell, and female hostages, Hamas refused to provide a list of those who are still alive.
  • While talks including a Hamas delegation continue in Cairo, Israel has not sent a delegation of negotiators given Hamas’s unsatisfactory response.
  • Israeli officials said that Sinwar’s refusal to provide the required information stems from his “desire to set fire to the ground and to cause bloodshed during Ramadan.”
  • It is still hoped that a ceasefire agreement can be reached by the end of the first weekend of Ramadan, but pathways to a deal appear increasingly limited, with the prospects of a breakthrough diminishing.
  • On Sunday, a senior Hamas official claimed, “If Israel agrees to Hamas demands, which include the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza and increasing , that would pave the way for a (truce) agreement within the next 24 to 48 hours”. Israel has not commented on this suggestion.
  • An unnamed Hamas official has also told the Wall Street Journal that, “while there is slow progress on an agreement for a temporary ceasefire and hostage deal, it seems unlikely that it will be reached before Ramadan’s expected start on March 10, and instead may come to fruition by the first weekend of the Muslim holy month”.
  • It has also been suggested by Egyptian and Qatari sources that there has been no contact from Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar, for at least a week, which may be further hampering and slowing hostage release efforts.
  • US Vice President, Kamala Harris, called yesterday for an “immediate ceasefire” given “the immense scale of suffering in Gaza”. While reiterating her desire to see hostages released and reunited with their families, she also condemned Israel for not doing enough to ease a “humanitarian catastrophe” in the current administration’s strongest comments since 7th October.

Context:  While a ceasefire and hostage release deal remains possible, its likelihood is diminishing given Hamas’s intransigence and refusal to provide Israel with a list of living hostages.

  • 130 hostages remain unaccounted for, with Israel saying that at least 29 were dead on 13th February. Three hostages have been rescued by Israel’s security forces, 105 were released during a ceasefire in November, and four prior to that. Securing all hostages is Israel’s joint primary stated war aim along with destroying Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
  • Fellow members of Israel’s war cabinet are said to have criticised Prime Minister Netanyahu for insisting on the names of surviving hostages as a precondition of negotiations. They argue that the list of hostages could have been discussed toward the end of the negotiations, as was the case in the previous deal.
  • Senior Egyptian sources claim that both Egypt and Qatar are putting strong pressure on Hamas to provide the names of hostages to be released in a first round of releases.
  • Egypt is also said to have made clear to Khalil al-Hayya, who is heading Hamas’s delegation, that it is difficult to hold talks and make progress when Hamas is split between its political leadership overseas and its leadership in Gaza.
  • Egyptian, Qatari, and Israeli officials have suggested that Hamas’s Gazan leader Yahya Sinwar is wilfully delaying a deal in the hope that an Israeli action in Rafah, Hamas’s last Gazan stronghold, would lead to a flare-up in the West Bank and among Israeli Arabs.  A senior Israeli official said that, “Sinwar prefers to escalate tensions in the Middle East, causing chaos and bloodshed on Ramadan, over the alternative of a six-week cease-fire and that would significantly alleviate the suffering of Gaza’s local population”.
  • Qatar is a longstanding supporter of Hamas, yet has also maintained an unofficial but productive relationship with Israel since at least 1996. Doha has frequently acted as an intermediary between Israel and Hamas, and played a critical role in mediating and brokering more recent negotiations along with Egypt.
  • In these negotiations, Qatar and Egypt, have acted as a mutually acceptable touchpoint with strong oversight by the CIA’s Bill Burns. Both Israel and Hamas can advise of their negotiating position, as well as relaying messages between the two parties.
  • The US remains deeply concerned by both Hamas’s holding of hostages, as well as the worsening humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip. By facilitating a ceasefire, it hopes to secure both the release of as many hostages as possible, as well as an increased flow of aid into the Gaza Strip.

Looking ahead: If fighting continues into Ramadan, it is likely that Hamas will attempt to escalate hostilities into the West Bank, as well as encourage Hezbollah to intensify its own attacks on Israel.

  • Given their keenness to prevent further regional conflict, the US will almost certainly continue all sides to agree to a ceasefire. War Cabinet member Minister Gantz arrives in the US for talks with senior officials today. (For more detail, including Netanyahu’s opposition to this visit, see Israeli Media Summary below.)
  • Defence Minister Gallant had previously set a deadline of March 10th for hostages to be released. Failing that, he pledged that Israel would intensify operations in Rafah.

March 1, 2024

US blocks UN Security Council statement blaming Israel for Gaza aid stampede

Screenshot: IDF Spokesperson’s Office

What’s happened: Following the death of dozens of Palestinians after a stampede broke out around an aid convoy west of Gaza City, the US has blocked an Algerian-sponsored statement at the United Nations Security Council which sought to blame Israel.

  • While reports conflict, it appears that:
    • Before dawn yesterday morning, approximately 30 trucks containing aid entered the Gaza Strip to deliver food to the Rimal neighbourhood of Gaza City.
    • At approximately 4.40 AM, thousands of Gazans swarmed the trucks. Drone footage of the event shows some of the trucks attempting to drive through the crowds, presumably in an effort to extract themselves and deliver the aid they were carrying.
    • After a number of trucks were able to continue north, armed men opened fire on what remained of the convoy.
    • While the IDF has admitted that its troops did open fire, it says that this was only “when they encountered danger, when the mob moved toward it in a manner that endangered the force”.
    • The IDF also says that it “did not fire toward individuals seeking aid and we did not fire toward the humanitarian convoy from the ground nor from the air.”
    • It is being reported that at least 112 Gazans were killed in this incident, with approximately 760 being injured. However, as these figures originate from within the Hamas-run Palestinian Ministry of Health, their veracity is questionable.
    • The IDF’s initial inquiry into the incident has concluded its troops’ fire killed only 7 or 8 people and that the majority were killed in the chaos, not by shooting.
    • “The tanks were there to provide security for the trucks. Our aircraft gave the troops on the ground a full picture from above,” the IDF said.
    • “When the hundreds turned into thousands, the IDF complied with international law… Israel did not limit the quantity of entering Gaza. We recognize the suffering of the Gaza residents.”
  • In the aftermath of this event, much of the international community has reiterated calls for an immediate ceasefire and increased aid being allowed into the Gaza Strip.
  • At the United Nations Security Council, Algeria sought to issue a statement which explicitly blamed Israel for this deadly incident. While supported by 14 out of 15 council members, it was blocked by the US.
  • When asked why the US had not supported this statement, Deputy Ambassador to the United Nations Robert Wood said: “We don’t have all the facts on the ground – that’s the problem.”
  • He also said that in the face of contradictory reports, the US was trying to  establish facts, including regarding the “circumstances around how people died”.
  • President Biden has also discussed this incident with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. According to a White House statement, they agreed that it “underscored the urgency of bringing negotiations to a close as soon as possible”.
  • The White House has also called for this event to be “thoroughly investigated”.

Context: Israel will conduct a thorough investigation into an incident which further highlights the complexity of distributing aid to the Gazan people and the urgent necessity of forming a civilian infrastructure to prevent further incidents of this kind.

  • There are also suggestions that plans are being considered to parachute aid in, or to bring it from the sea in the northern Gaza Strip, avoiding the need for road convoys. Even prior to yesterday’s incident, the US and Canadian governments were reported to be considering their own air-drops.
  • The Jordanians, in cooperation with Israel, have been air-dropping aid since the beginning of the war. For example, on February 27th, 160 packages were successfully delivered to the residents of southern Gaza.
  • The UK FCDO yesterday confirmed it was providing Jordan and Bahrain with parachutes to enable further aid to be dropped. “Together with our international partners we will continue to get to those most in need,” it said.
  • Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) statistics show that 268,000 tonnes of –  food, medical equipment, water, as well as shelter equipment – have been delivered on 14,545 aid trucks since the beginning of the war. 1246 water trucks have entered, ensuring 28.5 million litres of water a day.
  • The aid enables 20 bakeries to currently operate across Gaza, providing 2.5 million bread rolls and pita breads a day.
  • US and Qatari-brokered negotiations between Israel and Hamas aimed at securing a ceasefire and the release of hostages captured on 7th October had been slowly progressing. However,  President Biden has indicated a concern that this incident will “complicate” negotiations.
  • In a press conference, Prime Minister Netanyahu has said that Hamas has put up a “brick wall of delusional, unrealistic…demands”, seemingly pouring cold water on the possibility that an agreement leading to a ceasefire and hostage exchange is imminently reached.
  • Hamas branded yesterday’s incident an “unprecedented war crime”, while the PA President, Mahmoud Abbas, referred to it as “an ugly massacre conducted by the Israeli occupation army on people who waited for aid trucks”

Looking ahead: While ceasefire negotiations are likely to continue, Thursday’s events risk prejudicing them against Israel and in Hamas’s favour.

  • Combat operations will continue in the Gaza Strip. Israel is particularly vigilant in areas where despite previous IDF control, pockets of Hamas fighting cells remain able to carry out attacks.

February 29, 2024

Hamas chief calls for march on Al Aqsa in Ramadan

What’s happened: Hamas Politburo Chair, Ismail Haniyeh, has called for Muslims to march on Al Aqsa on the first night of Ramadan this year while claiming “flexibility” on ongoing hostage negotiations with Israel.

  • In a televised speech delivered in Beirut, Haniyeh claimed:
    • “The siege of Al-Aqsa and the siege of Gaza are one and the same”.
    • Hamas was “showing flexibility in ceasefire negotiations”.
    • It would not fall for US and Israeli “political traps”, and that it was ready to continue fighting if necessary.
  • Haniyeh also called for the Iran-aligned “Axis of Resistance” members including Hezbollah, the Houthis, and various Iraqi Shia militias to escalate their attacks against Israel.

Context: Hamas continues to make the connection to Al Aqsa, (the Temple Mount) in an effort to encourage others to join their offensive against Israel. Despite ongoing attacks from Hezbollah in the north, in large this has not materialised.

  • However, according to Channel 12 News it will be the Israeli war cabinet not National Security Minister Ben Gvir that will determine policy regarding access to the Temple Mount during Ramadan.
  • The war cabinet are not expected to impose restrictions on Israeli Arabs access to the site. Instead they will allow the police to decide the number of worshippers who will be allowed into the compound based exclusively on space and security  considerations. Individual restrictions will only be imposed on the basis of intelligence, as was done in the past.
  • Talks in Qatar have continued this week. If Hamas is genuinely showing  “flexibility” this could be seen as vindication of the Israeli government’s stance to increase the pressure on Hamas militarily to secure better terms to a deal.
  • Reports in the Arab media has suggested that the sides have begun to discuss the practical details of a deal. For example, they have discussed the number of tents that are to be delivered to the Gaza Strip, how they will be brought in and where they will be pitched.
  • For the first time, Hamas has indicated a willingness to consider allowing for a temporary ceasefire and internal redeployment of Israeli troops outside of the Gaza Strip’s main population centres in.
  • Hamas’s previous insistence that the IDF fully withdraws from the Gaza Strip and agree to a permanent ceasefire had previously proven to be one of the most significant barriers to talks progressing given Israel’s stated war aims of destroying the group and bringing home all hostages captured on 7th October.
  • The current proposed temporary ceasefire is intended to last for up to six weeks, and President Biden is understood to be optimistic that an agreement can be reached in time for the start of Ramadan.
  • Hamas’s other terms are understood to include the IDF allowing internally displaced Gazans to return to their homes, increased aid provision, and the release of a number of high-profile Palestinian prisoners, many of whom are terror convicts.
  • Hamas continues to demand the release of ‘heavyweight Palestinian prisoners’ guilty of murder, including Marwan Barghouti. Given Barghouti’s prominence and leadership of Fatah’s Tanzim during the Second Intifada, and the fact he is serving five life sentences, Israel is unlikely to agree to release him.
  • Meanwhile, the IDF continues its combat operations in the Gaza Strip while maintaining a high level of readiness on its northern border in the face of escalation Hezbollah aggression.
  • In recent statements, the IDF has announced its success in destroying “dozens of kilometres of Hamas terror tunnels in Gaza”, as well as how “terrorist cells” and “terrorist infrastructure” are being degraded and destroyed in Zaytun and Khan Yunis.
  • In cooperation with Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Egypt, France, and the USA have airdropped aid including food and medical equipment to Khan Yunis residents as well as the Jordanian Field Hospital.
  • Israel continues to insist that there is no limit to the amount of aid that can enter Gaza.
  • Hezbollah continues to launch attacks against northern Israeli communities and military bases. While sources close to the group claim that it would be willing to “immediately” honour and mirror a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas if one was reached, the US has also indicated a concern that “Israel will launch ground op against Hezbollah in the spring”.
  • In parallel, relatives of hostages and their supporters are marching for a second day from the Gaza periphery to Jerusalem. The march is expected to take four days to complete and will culminate in a solidarity rally in the capital.

Looking ahead:  The Israeli delegation to Qatar is scheduled to return to Israel today.

  • The war cabinet and the security cabinet will meet later today.
  • There is hope that a truce agreement is reached before Ramadan begins which is expected on or around 10th March

February 28, 2024

Israel warns Hezbollah against further northern escalation

What’s happened: In the face of increasing numbers of attacks being launched from southern Lebanon, the IDF’s Chief of Staff Halevi, has warned that Hezbollah would “pay a very heavy price” for joining Hamas in its aggression against Israel since 7th October.

  • Recent days have seen an escalation in both Hezbollah’s attacks against Israel and Israeli responses:
    • This morning, a barrage of 15 rockets was fired at Kiryat Shmona, one directly striking a building in the city. The IDF is returning fire to the source.
    • Some 20 rockets were fired into the Western Galilee yesterday. These launches are understood to have primarily targeted a military base. Iron Dome intercepted projectiles which threatened population centres, and no injuries were reported.
    • In response, IAF combat planes attacked Hezbollah structures and other terrorist infrastructure in four different areas in southern Lebanon last night.
    • On Monday, Hezbollah shot down an Israeli Air Force Elbit Hermes 450 drone over the area of Nabatieh, in southern Lebanon.
    • Then, in response to an Israeli airstrike on Baalbek on Monday morning, Hezbollah fired an additional salvo of approximately 35 rockets into Israel. This salvo targeted a military base responsible for air traffic control on Mount Meron.
    • Later in the afternoon, Hezbollah said that it had fired an anti-tank missile at the base. The IDF later acknowledged that a missile had struck, but confirmed “there was no damage to the site’s capabilities.”
    • Also this week, the IDF confirmed it had killed Hassan Hussein Salami, a senior Hezbollah commander, in an airstrike in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah, in turn, fired a barrage of 60 Katyusha rockets at the Golan Heights. There were no reports of injuries.
  • Israeli Defence Minister Gallant has said that Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran are seeking to turn Ramadan into “the second stage of October 7, and ignite the ground.”
  • He has also indicated that in the event of a Ramadan truce being reached with Hamas, it would have no impact on Israeli operations against Hezbollah and that strikes on the Lebanese group would continue and even increase. “We are planning to increase the firepower against Hezbollah, which is unable to find replacements for the commanders we are eliminating… In the event of a temporary truce in Gaza, we will increase the fire in the north, and will continue until the full withdrawal of Hezbollah [from the border] and the return of the residents to their homes…The goal is simple — to push Hezbollah back to where it should be. Either by an agreement or by force.”
  • Halevi said that Hezbollah “decided on October 7 evening that it was joining. It needs to pay a very big price for that. It is completely clear to us that we have to create here, first of all, a powerful obstacle, strong troops that are present here, a very strong [civilian] security squad[s] and security in that there is a safe room in the homes, in the communities. If we act correctly, security and quality of life will be restored here.”

Context: Since 8th October, Hezbollah has aggressively targeted northern Israeli and military bases to maintain what has been described as a “threshold of violence”.

  • These capabilities include missiles, mortars, drones, and anti-tank guided missiles.
  • The downing of the Israeli drone was considered an escalation by Hezbollah. Baalbek, a key Hezbollah stronghold, is also considerably further into Lebanon than where the IDF usually strikes, so likely indicates an escalation in Israeli force and intent.
  • Hezbollah’s targeting of civilians has led Israel to evacuate communities within 10km of the Israeli-Lebanese border. Some 80,000 Israelis from the north are currently internally displaced, and unable to return home due to the threat of Hezbollah violence.
  • 11 IDF soldiers and seven civilians have been killed by Hezbollah since 8th October. According to Hezbollah, 219 of the group’s operatives have been killed by IDF strikes.
  • A number of Hezbollah terrorists targeted by Israel in recent weeks have been commanders within the elite Radwan Force.
  • The Radwan Force was established to spearheaded Hezbollah attempts to infiltrate and capture Israeli territory, and gained significant combat experience in support of the Assad regime during the Syrian Civil War.
  • Following the 7th October, Israel refuses to allow units such as the Radwan Force to maintain a presence on its borders, especially given Radwan’s analogousness to Hamas’s Nukhba commandos in how they are both intended to infiltrate Israeli territory.
  • Israel views the current paradigm of Hezbollah’s presence on its borders as being unacceptable, and holds that Hezbollah must return to its positions north of the Litani River inline with UNSC Resolution 1701.
  • While Israel is not proactively seeking war in southern Lebanon, it is increasingly indicating that it is willing to take necessary military to safeguard its citizens and allow those who have been internally displaced to return home.
  • Meanwhile, Israel continues its attempts to degrade and destroy Hamas in the Gaza Strip while securing the return of hostages captured on 7th October:
    • Combat operations continue, primarily in and around Zeitoun in the north of Gaza City and Khan Yunis in the south.
    • While the IDF is preparing to launch an assault on Rafah which is Hamas’s final stronghold in the coastal enclave, it is a realistic possibility that this will be postponed until after Ramadan given ongoing ceasefire negotiations.
    • Qatari-brokered negotiations continue, with US President, Joe Biden indicating that he hopes to see a ceasefire “by next Monday”. Israel and Hamas have both dismissed his comments, with Israel denying his claim that it had agreed to cease fighting by Ramadan.

Looking ahead: While there is no indication of imminent wider Israeli military action in southern Lebanon, it is becoming increasingly likely given the failure of diplomacy to remove Hezbollah from its positions south of the Litani as well as their continued attacks on Israel.

  • While France and the US have led diplomatic efforts to secure this outcome, they have thus far proven unsuccessful. As diplomacy fails to secure northern Israeli communities, military action in southern Lebanon becomes increasingly likely.
  • The Israeli media has quoted sources close to Hezbollah saying that the group will mirror any ceasefire achieved in Gaza.

February 27, 2024

February 27th – Day 144 of the war: News in Brief

1. Several incidents yesterday signalled a ratcheting up of tensions between Israel and Hezbollah on the northern border and an escalation of military actions on both sides. First, Hezbollah shot down an Israeli Air Force Elbit Hermes 450 drone over the area of Nabatieh, in southern Lebanon. In response, Israel struck Hezbollah targets in the north-east Lebanese city of Baalbek, a key Hezbollah stronghold located approximately 100 kilometres from Israel’s northern border. The strike is therefore the deepest inside Lebanon Israel has conducted in many years. The IDF also confirmed it had killed Hassan Hussein Salami, a senior Hezbollah commander, in an airstrike in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah, in turn, fired a barrage of 60 Katyusha rockets at the Golan Heights. There were no reports of injuries. This morning, Hezbollah fired over 40 rockets at the Upper Galilee, with sirens sounding in Zivon, Sassa, Safsufa, and Dovev. Hezbollah announced that these rockets were targeted at the Mount Meron base. Also this morning, Lebanese media report strikes on several southern Lebanese towns, some as far as 30 kilometres from the border.

2. President Biden said yesterday that he hoped a ceasefire in Gaza would be reached by next Monday. An Israeli delegation arrived in Qatar last night to continue hostage/ceasefire negotiations, but Israeli officials briefed the media in less optimistic terms. The proposals on the table would see an initial pause in fighting of a month and a half, during which some 40 of the remaining hostages would be released. In parallel, a number of Palestinian security prisoners would be released from Israeli jails. Israeli media reports today have suggested that this initial pause leading to a longer-term ceasefire should not be ruled out, but that Hamas was balking at a prerequisite for such an arrangement: that its foothold in Gaza end and the Strip be demilitarised. The Israeli War Cabinet yesterday discussed for the first time the details of a potential ground operation in Rafah, Hamas’s last remaining Gazan stronghold.

3. Israel’s Channel 14 violated a Military Censors Office gag order on Sunday evening in order to level further allegations that Israel’s security establishment missed warning signs over October 7thThe report alleged that at midnight on the night before Hamas began its massacre, information that Hamas terrorists had activated Israeli phone SIM cards was received by Israeli intelligence officials. The IDF acknowledges that such intelligence was received, but says that the channel’s claim of 1,000 SIM cards activated simultaneously is “false and far from reality.” The practice of installing Israeli SIMs was common to previous Hamas training drills, including in the months prior. In the context of the prevailing assessment that Hamas was deterred from large-scale conflict, it was not thought of huge significance on this occasion.

4. Voting in municipal Israeli elections began at 7.00 this morning. The ballot had been delayed four months because of the war, and will be delayed another nine months in 11 local authorities whose citizens have been evacuated. Turnout is expected to be low, with voters’ minds concentrated on the war. With a significant portion of the electorate voting by absentee ballot due to military service, the final results could come as late as March 3rd. Jerusalem Mayor Leon is expected to comfortably retain his position, while long-time Tel Aviv Mayor Huldai is also expected to prevail.

5. In a move linked to US demands that it reform, Palestinian Authority (PA) Prime Minister Shtayyeh yesterday submitted his resignation to President Abbas. The Biden Administration, which has pushed for a reformed PA to play a leading role in a post-Hamas Gaza, called it a “positive and important step toward achieving a reunited Gaza and West Bank under the Palestinian Authority.” In his remarks to the PA cabinet, Shtayyeh said the immediate future would “require new governmental and political arrangements that take into account the emerging reality in the Gaza Strip, the national unity talks, and the urgent need for an inter-Palestinian consensus.” In addition, it would require “the extension of the Authority’s authority over the entire land, Palestine.” Abbas is thought likely to ask Mohammad Mustafa, chairman of the Palestine Investment Fund, to serve as the next prime minister, though the US, Emirati, and Saudi preference is thought to be former Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, who previously initiated a reformist agenda.

6. Responding to petitions, the High Court yesterday ordered the government to explain why it should not annul its resolution of June 2023 instructing the IDF not to draft ultra-Orthodox men into military service. The case is being heard against the backdrop of the IDF’s plan to extend the service time of conscripts and reservists, in the light of the demands placed on the army by fighting on multiple fronts. The IDF recently announced that over the last year, 66,000 young ultra-Orthodox men had received a deferral from service – a record high. Some 540 of these opted to enlist in the wake of October 7th and the war in Gaza.  Ministers Gantz and Eisenkot yesterday presented a plan calling for all segments of Israeli society to serve. “All the people of Israel, all parts of society should take part in the right to serve our country. The challenges are enormous, and you cannot look those who are serving in the eyes and tell them that things will go on as they have,” Gantz said.

February 26, 2024

Cautious optimism over latest hostage release talks

What’s happened: Following the success of initial talks with US, Egyptian, and Qatari mediators in Paris, an Israeli team has been dispatched to Qatar to continue negotiations which could lead to the release of hostages held in the Gaza Strip and a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

  • Senior Israeli officials have expressed cautious optimism that a deal can be reached. One said “at the end of the day, we don’t know what is happening inside Sinwar’s head. It will take a lot of time until the deal ripens, but the direction is good.”
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu said “We’re all working on it… I can’t tell you if we’ll have it. But if Hamas goes down from its delusional claims… then we’ll have the progress that we all want… it’s too soon to say if they’ve abandoned [their ‘delusional’ demands].”
  • In Paris, Israel, US, and Arab mediators agreed an outline for a potential hostage deal which is now subject to Hamas’s approval.
  • If successful, this deal would likely allow for a six week ceasefire, the release of 40 hostages including women, children, female soldiers, the elderly and unwell.
  • It would also see Israel release hundreds of Palestinians convicted for terrorist offences currently held in Israeli prisons.
  • Hamas is understood to have somewhat softened its previous positions, and has indicated that it is open to the prospect of a temporary ceasefire and redeployment of the IDF within the Gaza Strip rather than a permanent cessation of hostilities and immediate withdrawal.
  • However, some of its demands will likely be more difficult for Israel to accept. These include allowing internally displaced Gazans to return home (especially in the north of the Gaza Strip), and the number of Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for Israeli hostages.
  • According to Israeli media, Prime Minister Netanyahu is also understood to be demanding that “high-level Palestinian security prisoners” released in a potential deal do not return to the Palestinian Territories but are instead deported to Qatar. Doha’s position on this proposal is unclear.
  • There are also reports that Israel is not prepared to advance on the parameters of a deal until it first receives a list specifying which of the 130 hostages held in Gaza since October are still alive.

Context: Although signs of progress are encouraging, a hostage deal remains a distance away.

  • Israeli negotiators have been granted a limited mandate while in Doha, and it is understood that these rounds of talks will focus on the technical aspects of a potential deal. In the event of their success, it is likely that their primarily role will be to pave the way for more substantial talks with Hamas.
  • Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich has opposed this proposed deal, branding it as “delusional”, and indicating that he would vote against it as its terms are too favourable for Hamas.
  • The demand that released high-security Palestinian prisoners be exiled to Qatar rather than return to the Palestinian Territories is also a potential stumbling block in negotiations.
  • The IDF continues to set the conditions for its likely impending assault on Rafah, Hamas’s final remaining stronghold in the Gaza Strip. It has presented its evacuation plan for civilians to Israel’s war cabinet, as well as well as an overview of its operational strategy.
  • While defeating Hamas in Rafah is a critical war objective for the IDF, Netanyahu has indicated that an assault on the southern Gazan city could be delayed if a hostage deal and truce is reached.
  • He said “if we have a deal, it’ll be delayed somewhat. But it’ll happen. If we don’t have a deal, we’ll do it anyway. It has to be done. Because total victory is our goal, and total victory is within reach. Not months away, weeks away once we begin the operation,”
  • Combat operations continue across the Gaza Strip, with the IDF’s main efforts remaining in Khan Yunis and north of Gaza City. An operation to degrade and destroy Hamas in the Zeitoun neighbourhood of Gaza City is ongoing, and other similar actions are highly likely.
  • Five Israeli troops were seriously wounded in three separate incidents in southern and northern Gaza yesterday: an IED attack, an anti-tank missile attack and a firefight with terrorists.
  • The Gaza Strip’s humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate significantly. Israel’s war cabinet has authorised the direct entry of aid into the northern Gaza Strip, while the UK and Jordan have airdropped aid to the Tal al-Hawa Hospital. UNRWA’s chief, Philippe Lazzarini, has said that his agency has reached “breaking point” amid a budgetary shortfall of $450m.
  • Meanwhile, Israel continues to fight on multiple fronts:
    • In the past week, Hezbollah has fired numerous rockets and an anti-tank missile at northern Israeli communities, as well as launched a drone which was shot down by the Israeli Air Force. The IDF has launched its own strikes into Lebanon, and two Hezbollah operatives have been killed in an explosion in Qusayr close to the Lebanese-Syrian border. Israel has declined to comment on this incident.
    • Israel’s Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant, has warned that the IDF will increase its strikes against Hezbollah in response to its daily attacks on northern Israeli communities, even during a truce with Hamas in Gaza.
    • The IDF has also confirmed that Hezbollah successfully shot down one of its drones over Nabatieh in southern Lebanon.

Looking ahead: Israeli negotiators will begin laying the groundwork for a potential hostage exchange and ceasefire deal. While unconfirmed, reaching such an agreement before Ramadan would be highly desirable, and it is a realistic possibility that significant progress is made in Doha over the next week.

  • Later this week, a second Israeli delegation will head to Cairo for further talks.

February 23, 2024

PM Netanyahu presents plan for ‘day after Hamas’

  • The plan was presented as a draft platform for further discussion, and is based on different timelines:
    • In the first stage, the IDF will continue fighting with the aim of destroying Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s (PIJ) military capabilities and government infrastructure and prevent them from posing a threat in the future. In addition, Israel will continue to strive to bring the hostages home.
    • In the second, medium-term phase, Israel will maintain freedom of operation in the Gaza Strip. Israel will work alongside Egypt and the US to ensure an end to weapons smuggling from Egypt into southern Gaza. Ensuring the Strip will be demilitarised. Israel will seek to empower a Gazan “civilian administration”, based “on local figures with administrative experience who have no affiliation with countries or organisations that support terrorism.”
    • Relating to the long term, Netanyahu “utterly rejects international dictates in the matter of a permanent status arrangement with the Palestinians.” Any arrangement will only be reached in direct negotiations between the sides without preconditions. Accordingly, Israel will continue to oppose unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state.

Context: Although these are only general guidelines, it is the first time that the prime minister has presented a position of any kind on ‘the day after’.

  • Notably, this document did not explicitly rule out the Palestinian Authority (PA) playing a part in future governance in Gaza.
  • Although politically sensitive within the coalition, there is understanding that in order to get buy-in from potential regional partners (UAE and Saudi Arabia) to contribute to the rehabilitation of Gaza, some form of Palestinian leadership, perhaps a reconstituted PA and a long-term vision towards a negotiated political resolution will be necessary.
  • The IDF is expected to launch a pilot programme in Gaza City’s Zeitoun neighbourhood, in which local civilians take over the administration of the area from Hamas. The trial civilian authority will look to take charge of distributing , much of which currently ends up in the hands of Hamas, which uses it for its own ends to the cost of the civilian population.
  • Another component of Netanyahu’s plan talks about the necessity to “de-radicalise all the religious, educational and welfare institutions in the Gaza Strip.”  This would also include closing down UNRWA and replacing it with other international welfare agencies.
  • In the meantime, fighting continues across Gaza. The IDF announced, over the last day:
    • A terrorist cell that were carrying an explosive device and which fired an RPG at IDF troops, was eliminated by IDF and Israeli Air Forces (IAF).
    • IDF soldiers located dozens of rockets and explosive devices.
    • IDF troops continue operations in western Khan Yunis. In the past day, more than ten terrorists were killed by precise sniper fire and UAV strikes.
    • The IAF destroyed a weapons storage facility, a command centre, and a compound where several terrorists were located, adjacent to IDF troops.
    • Additionally, IDF troops continue to conduct targeted raids in Zeitoun in the northern Gaza Strip, where over the past day the soldiers killed over ten terrorists using precise sniper fire, UAVs, and helicopters, and located weapons and military equipment. Troops also located weapons and uncovered tunnel shafts in the Zeitoun area.
    • IDF troops eliminated several terrorists in the central Gaza Strip. During one incident, the soldiers identified a terrorist cell at an observation post in a strategic location, intending to attack IDF troops. A helicopter was then dispatched to strike the post and neutralise the terrorist cell.
  • Meanwhile, Israel continues to fight on multiple fronts:
    • There has been sustained rocket fire from Lebanon into northern Israel throughout Thursday, into the evening and again this morning. As usual the IDF returned fire to the sources.
    • In addition, the IAF struck a Hezbollah military compound in the area of Maroun El Ras and a Hezbollah military compound in the area of Blida. Arab media reports suggest that a senior Hezbollah commander was killed in the attack, along with another combatant. Overall, Hezbollah has announced 208 fighters killed so far.
    • The IDF confirmed that the interception of a long range ballistic missile from Yemen towards Eilat on Thursday morning was the seventh time the Arrow Aerial Defence System had successfully been deployed since the beginning of the war.
    • In the West Bank, the IDF announced, “a terrorist who was on his way to commit a terror attack, and who carried out several shooting attacks over the past weeks was eliminated in an aerial strike in Jenin.” Yasser Hanoun, affiliated with PIJ was killed by a remotely operated UAV.

Looking ahead: A delegation led by the directors of the Mossad and Shin Bet will leave today for a summit in Paris for a renewal of the hostage negotiations. Among the key issues yet to be resolved is the ratio between the Palestinian prisoners to be released per hostage.

February 22, 2024

February 22nd – Day 139 of the war: News in Brief

1. An Israeli man in his 20s has been killed and at least 11 others wounded in a terror attack near Ma’ale Adumim.  A pregnant woman, 23, is in serious condition, and four others are in moderate condition – a woman in her 30s, a man aged 23, a man aged 51, and a woman aged 52. The three attackers opened fire on vehicles in traffic on Highway 1, which leads to Jerusalem. Two were shot dead by security forces at the scene, and the third during sweeps of the area. They were evidently well coordinated and well-armed, with weapons recovered including assault rifles, makeshift submachine guns, and a grenade. The Shin Bet has identified the terrorists as Muhammad Zawahra, 26, his brother Kathem Zawahra, 31, and Ahmed Al-Wahsh, 31, all from the Bethlehem area.

2. There is cautious optimism over the prospects for a new hostage negotiation. Minister Gantz said yesterday that “efforts are being made presently to advance a new arrangement, and [there are] initial signs about the possibility for progress.” Saudi reports suggest an Israeli delegation is expected to travel to Cairo to resume talks, following an apparent softening of Hamas’s position. Hamas confirmed that its Political Bureau Director Ismail Haniya and a Hamas delegation had arrived in Cairo on Tuesday. They were followed yesterday by US Middle East envoy Brett McGurk, for a summit that had not been scheduled in advance. The Qatari Emir and prime minister are also expected to travel to Paris for talks next week. Israeli media reports suggest that Hamas has been persuaded to show more flexibility by threats from Arab states that they will cease providing funding and safe refuge for Hamas officials if they failed to do so.

3. IDF troops have begun fighting at close range inside the Gaza Strip’s vast tunnel network. Soldiers from the Yahalom Unit and the 98th Division yesterday destroyed a tunnel in the Khan Yunis area, after successfully navigating blast doors and other obstacles placed by the terrorists. Terrorists were encountered and defeated in a combination of hand-to-hand combat and what Israel Hayom calls “special means”. The IDF has continued a large-scale operation in Gaza City’s Zeitoun neighbourhood in the last day, in a bid to ensure that Hamas does not return there, while last night, Israel Navy troops destroyed Hamas and Islamic Jihad naval vessels and a rocket launcher that was ready for use to fire on Israel.

4. Once Zeitoun is secured, the IDF is to launch a pilot programme there, in which local Gazan civilians take over the administration of the area from Hamas. The trial civilian authority will look to take charge of distributing , much of which currently ends up in the hands of Hamas, which uses it for its own ends to the cost of the civilian population. Another focus of activity will be changing school textbooks which currently incite hatred of Israel.

5. Hezbollah launched attacks on several northern Israeli communities this morning. An anti-tank missile struck a house in Yuval, a village in the Upper Galilee. Another anti-tank missile was launched toward the city of Kiryat Shmona and landed in an open area. There have been no reports of injuries, and the IDF responded with fire to the source of the attacks. Israel also attacked a military structure in the area of the Lebanese village Yaroun, along with three other Hezbollah operation command posts in southern Lebanon.

6. Israel’s Arrow long-range defence system intercepted a Houthi missile headed for Eilat this morning. The missile did not enter Israeli airspace and was shot down over the Red Sea. This was the sixth time the Arrow system has intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile headed for Israel since October 7th, while the Israeli Air Force has also thwarted several drone and cruise missile attacks. Shortly before the launch on Eilat, US forces destroyed seven Houthi anti-ship missiles, one missile launcher and a drone which “presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and to the US Navy ships in the region.”

7. Israel’s Association of Rape Crisis Centres yesterday provided to the UN a detailed report documenting Hamas’s extensive use of sexual violence on October 7th. Its authors note that “the report clearly demonstrates that” sexual violence was “not a ‘malfunction’ or isolated incident, but a clear operational strategy involving systematic, targeted sexual abuse.” The report also provided evidence of continued sexual violence being inflicted on hostages being held by Hamas in Gaza. The report’s content is gleaned from survivors’ testimonies, interviews with first-responders, and people who provided counselling to the victims, though due to the high number of victims of this violence who were subsequently murdered, the full extent of the massacre’s sexual and gender-based violence is difficult to quantify.

8. The UK Parliament witnessed chaotic scenes yesterday during a vote on the war in Gaza. The Scottish National Party (SNP) had introduced a motion strongly critical of Israel and calling for an immediate ceasefire. The opposition Labour Party, arguing that the motion was too broad, introduced an amendment calling for an “immediate humanitarian ceasefire”, but “noting that Israel cannot be expected to cease fighting if Hamas continues with violence and that Israelis have the right to the assurance that the horror of 7th October cannot happen again”. The Conservative government also tabled its own amendment. The House of Commons Speaker, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, unexpectedly chose to allow both amendments to be put to a vote, causing the Conservatives and the SNP to leave the chamber in protest. The partially vacated chamber then voted unanimously for the Labour amendment. Hoyle said he had been minded to allow the Labour motion to allow the House a full airing of views, and in part due to personal threats received by MPs.

February 21, 2024

Israel continues to fight across multiple fronts

Gaza Strip: The IDF continues to operate in the northern, central, and southern Gaza Strip against Hamas combatants and its terror infrastructure.

  • In Khan Yunis the IDF announced Tuesday, “troops are continuing intensive operations in western Khan Yunis and killed dozens of terrorists over the past day.”
  • The air force struck a “Hamas weapons storage facility in Khan Yunis. During the strike, secondary explosions were identified at the site, indicating that large quantities of weapons were stored at the site.”
  • “In the central Gaza Strip, IDF troops are continuing to operate and have killed a number of terrorists over the past day.”
  • In Gaza City in the north, IDF troops conducted a “targeted raid in the Zaytun area… During the activity, terrorists were killed, and numerous weapons were located.”
  • On Tuesday night, the IDF revealed “large quantities of weapons inside a building adjacent to a UN school in Khan Yunis. The school had been used as a humanitarian shelter for Gazan residents. The weapons found by the IDF include AK-47s, warheads, grenades, RPGs and ammunition. The terrorists used a gap in the school wall as a passage to the adjacent building, from which they took their weapons to use in attacks on IDF soldiers.”
  • “In parallel, the soldiers worked to evacuate the civilian population from the combat zone for their safety. Approximately 60 terrorists who were hiding among the civilian population and tried to take advantage of the evacuation process to escape, were detained by the IDF.”
  • In the last two days two more IDF soldiers have been killed in action, taking the total to 237 since the ground operation begun.

Lebanon: Hezbollah has kept up its daily attacks across northern Israel, firing rockets, anti-tank missiles and launching drones.

  • At least two Hezbollah drones have successfully penetrated Israeli air space. One landed in the garden of Mateh Asher Regional Council Head Moshe Davidovitch’s home. Another one fell near Tiberias on Monday. Neither incident resulted in casualties.
  • Israel continues to strike Hezbollah target. Over the last few day,s Israel has carried out strikes in Nabatieh and Blida and has also begun to attack Hezbollah targets deeper into Lebanon, including in Sidon.
  • Defence Minister Gallant visited troops in the north on Tuesday and told them, “Every day, the IDF is winning and Hezbollah is losing… Nasrallah’s method of equations has collapsed. The IDF operates in Damascus, in Beirut, in Nabatieh and every place necessary.”

: Syrian media reported this morning that Israel fired a number of missiles at a high-rise apartment building in a Damascus neighbourhood, with reports suggesting two people were killed.

  • According to a Syrian official, the target of the attack was an Iranian man who had been in the building.

West Bank: Israeli security forces arrested 40 wanted men across the West Bank Tuesday night.

  • In a counterterrorism operation in Jenin, troops arrested a number of suspects and killed terrorists, including by air strikes.
  • According to Palestinians sources, Araf Kadumi, the commander of Fatah’s al-Aqsa Martyrs Battalions in Qalqilya was killed. Kadumi also served in the past as part of the Palestinian Authorities Security Forces.
  • Palestinians are claiming he is the 400th casualty in the West Bank since the war began. The vast majority seem to be armed gunmen, or assailants attempting terror attacks.

Context: The IDF’s latest assessment is that around 12,000 of Hamas’s estimated 30,000 combatants have now been killed since the war begun, whilst Hamas has admitted for the first time that 6,000 of their fighters have been killed.

  • In addition it’s likely that several more thousand more have been seriously wounded and no longer able to fight.
  • The IDF also revealed that the air force have carried out over 31,000 strikes, including over 1,000 in Lebanon and dozens in the West Bank.
  • Israel continues to hunt the senior Hamas leadership that has so far managed to evade capture. There is growing speculation over the location of Hamas leader Sinwar who is considered the mastermind of the October 7th attacks and the highest priority target.
  • According to a Saudi media report, Sinwar has escaped from the Gaza Strip into the Sinai and may have taken hostages with him.
  • The report could be part of a campaign to delegitimise his leadership in the eyes of the Gazan population. However, Israeli sources say they have no intelligence to support the claim.
  • For Israel, he is still most likely hiding in the tunnel network either under Khan Yunis or Rafah.
  • Last week, Israel released captured CCTV footage from earlier in the war reportedly showing Sinwar and his family fleeing their home in a tunnel. The release of that footage was also meant to depict him as a coward in retreat.
  • On Tuesday, a strategic assessment written by Minister Eisenkot to his partners in the war cabinet was revealed on Channel 12 News. According to the report, Eisnkot gave the following assessments:
    • Stripping Hamas of its military and governmental capabilities—partially achieved.
    • Freeing the hostages—partially achieved.
    • Securing an end to the war in which no threat is posed to Israel from Gaza—not achieved.
    • Restoring security to the residents of the Gaza periphery communities—partially achieved.
    • Improving Israeli citizens’ sense of personal security and national resilience— not achieved.
  • Eisenkot included harsh criticism of the war cabinet writing, “In practice, for the past three months no impactful decisions have been made. The war is being run on the basis of tactical achievements, without meaningful efforts to secure the attainment of strategic objectives.”
  • For the third time since the war began, the US vetoed a motion at the UN Security Council calling for an immediate ceasefire. The UK once again abstained.
  • The IDF is still preparing plans to launch a ground operation into Rafah, but first needs to facilitate another humanitarian corridor for the non-combatants to be evacuated.

February 20, 2024

ICJ begins hearing case on West Bank and East Jerusalem

What’s happened: The International Court of Justice (ICJ) in the Hague yesterday began hearing the case on the “legal consequences” of Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

  • In opening remarks, Palestinian Authority (PA) Foreign Minister Riyad Maliki called on the court to “declare that the Israeli occupation is illegal” and accused Israel of presenting Palestinians with the choices of “ethnic cleansing, apartheid, or genocide”.
  • The PA has lobbied the UN General Assembly to press for the court to hear the case, and seeks an advisory opinion declaring the occupation illegal and that Israel must end it, dismantle its settlements, and provide restitution to the Palestinians.
  • Israel has opted not to present to the court, instead choosing to submit a written argument. It does not accept the ICJ’s jurisdiction over this particular issue, arguing that advisory opinions should not be issued when the essence of the matter is a political and not a legal dispute.
  • The Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs said “By hurling false accusations and creating a fundamentally distorted reality, the Palestinian Authority is trying to turn a conflict that should be resolved through direct negotiations and without external impositions into a one-sided and improper legal process designed to adopt an extremist and distorted narrative according to which the Palestinians have no responsibilities and Israel has no rights, which has nothing to do with justice.”
  • “The Court should refrain from participating in this media circus and determine that the Palestinians should return to the existing legal frameworks in order to resolve the conflict through direct negotiations between the parties.” 

Context: The court is hearing this case having already ruled last month that a separate case brought by South Africa accusing Israel of genocide in its war in Gaza should be heard in full. (For more on the background to that case see BICOM’s analysis.)

  • In 2022, the United Nations General Assembly requested that the ICJ issue an advisory and non-binding opinion on “Legal Consequences arising from the Policies and Practices of Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem”.
  • The UNGA resolution calling for this ICJ case referred to numerous aspects of Israel’s control of the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and its policies towards the Gaza Strip. Palestinian freedom of movement, settler violence, and “the disastrous humanitarian situation” in the Gaza Strip were all specifically mentioned as areas of concern. It also calls for Israel to cease “the transfer of its own population into the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem”, cease settlement activities, lift its blockade on Gaza.
  • In 2004, the ICJ issued a similar advisory ruling on the West Bank Security Barrier. While its key findings were that it violated international law, should be dismantled, and that reparations should be made for damages it caused, Israel rejected the ICJ’s position.
  • Established by the United Nations Charter in June 1945, the ICJ is the principle judicial organ of the United Nations. Located at the Peace Palace in the Hague, the Court is composed of 15 judges elected for a nine-year term by the UN General Assembly and Security Council.
  • The Court has two roles: to settle legal disputes submitted to it by states; and to provide advisory opinions on legal questions referred to it by duly authorised United Nations organs and agencies of the system.
  • In contrast to the International Criminal Court (ICC), which deals with criminal prosecution against individuals for war crimes or crimes against humanity, cases dealt with by the ICJ involve states. The ICJ can hear cases brought by any UN member state against any other member state, whether or not they are directly in conflict, when the common interest of the international community is at stake.
  • The ICJ’s jurisdiction is based on the mutual consent of the states involved. In last month’s South African case against Israel, this applied as both states are members of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.

Looking ahead: Between 19th-26th February 2024, 52 states and three international organisations will present evidence which is expected to overwhelmingly be against Israel. Oral arguments will last a week, and a judgement is expected several months from now.

  • While procedurally separate from the South Africa V Israel case alleging genocide in the Gaza Strip, Israel’s conduct during its current war against Hamas is likely to heavily feature in this coming week’s oral arguments.
  • While a judgement would be advisory only – so non-binding and without legal ramifications – one ruling against Israel could nevertheless pose significant reputational and diplomatic challenges for Israel.

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