What’s happened: Hamas Politburo Chair, Ismail Haniyeh, has called for Muslims to march on Al Aqsa on the first night of Ramadan this year while claiming “flexibility” on ongoing hostage negotiations with Israel.

• In a televised speech delivered in Beirut, Haniyeh claimed:
  • “The siege of Al-Aqsa and the siege of Gaza are one and the same”.
  • Hamas was “showing flexibility in ceasefire negotiations”.
  • It would not fall for US and Israeli “political traps”, and that it was ready to continue fighting if necessary.
• Haniyeh also called for the Iran-aligned “Axis of Resistance” members including Hezbollah, the Houthis, and various Iraqi Shia militias to escalate their attacks against Israel.

Context: Hamas continues to make the connection to Al Aqsa, (the Temple Mount) in an effort to encourage others to join their offensive against Israel. Despite ongoing attacks from Hezbollah in the north, in large this has not materialised.

• However, according to Channel 12 News it will be the Israeli war cabinet not National Security Minister Ben Gvir that will determine policy regarding access to the Temple Mount during Ramadan.
• The war cabinet are not expected to impose restrictions on Israeli Arabs access to the site. Instead they will allow the police to decide the number of worshippers who will be allowed into the compound based exclusively on space and security  considerations. Individual restrictions will only be imposed on the basis of intelligence, as was done in the past.
• Talks in Qatar have continued this week. If Hamas is genuinely showing  “flexibility” this could be seen as vindication of the Israeli government’s stance to increase the pressure on Hamas militarily to secure better terms to a deal.
• Reports in the Arab media has suggested that the sides have begun to discuss the practical details of a deal. For example, they have discussed the number of tents that are to be delivered to the Gaza Strip, how they will be brought in and where they will be pitched.
• For the first time, Hamas has indicated a willingness to consider allowing for a temporary ceasefire and internal redeployment of Israeli troops outside of the Gaza Strip’s main population centres in.
• Hamas’s previous insistence that the IDF fully withdraws from the Gaza Strip and agree to a permanent ceasefire had previously proven to be one of the most significant barriers to talks progressing given Israel’s stated war aims of destroying the group and bringing home all hostages captured on 7th October.
• The current proposed temporary ceasefire is intended to last for up to six weeks, and President Biden is understood to be optimistic that an agreement can be reached in time for the start of Ramadan.
• Hamas’s other terms are understood to include the IDF allowing internally displaced Gazans to return to their homes, increased aid provision, and the release of a number of high-profile Palestinian prisoners, many of whom are terror convicts.
• Hamas continues to demand the release of ‘heavyweight Palestinian prisoners’ guilty of murder, including Marwan Barghouti. Given Barghouti’s prominence and leadership of Fatah’s Tanzim during the Second Intifada, and the fact he is serving five life sentences, Israel is unlikely to agree to release him.
• Meanwhile, the IDF continues its combat operations in the Gaza Strip while maintaining a high level of readiness on its northern border in the face of escalation Hezbollah aggression.
• In recent statements, the IDF has announced its success in destroying “dozens of kilometres of Hamas terror tunnels in Gaza”, as well as how “terrorist cells” and “terrorist infrastructure” are being degraded and destroyed in Zaytun and Khan Yunis.
• In cooperation with Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Egypt, France, and the USA have airdropped aid including food and medical equipment to Khan Yunis residents as well as the Jordanian Field Hospital.
• Israel continues to insist that there is no limit to the amount of aid that can enter Gaza.
• Hezbollah continues to launch attacks against northern Israeli communities and military bases. While sources close to the group claim that it would be willing to “immediately” honour and mirror a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas if one was reached, the US has also indicated a concern that “Israel will launch ground op against Hezbollah in the spring”.
• In parallel, relatives of hostages and their supporters are marching for a second day from the Gaza periphery to Jerusalem. The march is expected to take four days to complete and will culminate in a solidarity rally in the capital.

Looking ahead:  The Israeli delegation to Qatar is scheduled to return to Israel today.

• The war cabinet and the security cabinet will meet later today.
• There is hope that a truce agreement is reached before Ramadan begins which is expected on or around 10th March

What’s happened: In the face of increasing numbers of attacks being launched from southern Lebanon, the IDF’s Chief of Staff Halevi, has warned that Hezbollah would “pay a very heavy price” for joining Hamas in its aggression against Israel since 7^th October.

• Recent days have seen an escalation in both Hezbollah’s attacks against Israel and Israeli responses:
  • This morning, a barrage of 15 rockets was fired at Kiryat Shmona, one directly striking a building in the city. The IDF is returning fire to the source.
  • Some 20 rockets were fired into the Western Galilee yesterday. These launches are understood to have primarily targeted a military base. Iron Dome intercepted projectiles which threatened population centres, and no injuries were reported.
  • In response, IAF combat planes attacked Hezbollah structures and other terrorist infrastructure in four different areas in southern Lebanon last night.
  • On Monday, Hezbollah shot down an Israeli Air Force Elbit Hermes 450 drone over the area of Nabatieh, in southern Lebanon.
  • Then, in response to an Israeli airstrike on Baalbek on Monday morning, Hezbollah fired an additional salvo of approximately 35 rockets into Israel. This salvo targeted a military base responsible for air traffic control on Mount Meron.
  • Later in the afternoon, Hezbollah said that it had fired an anti-tank missile at the base. The IDF later acknowledged that a missile had struck, but confirmed “there was no damage to the site’s capabilities.”
  • Also this week, the IDF confirmed it had killed Hassan Hussein Salami, a senior Hezbollah commander, in an airstrike in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah, in turn, fired a barrage of 60 Katyusha rockets at the Golan Heights. There were no reports of injuries.
• Israeli Defence Minister Gallant has said that Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran are seeking to turn Ramadan into “the second stage of October 7, and ignite the ground.”
• He has also indicated that in the event of a Ramadan truce being reached with Hamas, it would have no impact on Israeli operations against Hezbollah and that strikes on the Lebanese group would continue and even increase. “We are planning to increase the firepower against Hezbollah, which is unable to find replacements for the commanders we are eliminating… In the event of a temporary truce in Gaza, we will increase the fire in the north, and will continue until the full withdrawal of Hezbollah [from the border] and the return of the residents to their homes…The goal is simple — to push Hezbollah back to where it should be. Either by an agreement or by force.”
• Halevi said that Hezbollah “decided on October 7 evening that it was joining. It needs to pay a very big price for that. It is completely clear to us that we have to create here, first of all, a powerful obstacle, strong troops that are present here, a very strong [civilian] security squad[s] and security in that there is a safe room in the homes, in the communities. If we act correctly, security and quality of life will be restored here.”

Context: Since 8^th October, Hezbollah has aggressively targeted northern Israeli and military bases to maintain what has been described as a “threshold of violence”.

• These capabilities include missiles, mortars, drones, and anti-tank guided missiles.
• The downing of the Israeli drone was considered an escalation by Hezbollah. Baalbek, a key Hezbollah stronghold, is also considerably further into Lebanon than where the IDF usually strikes, so likely indicates an escalation in Israeli force and intent.
• Hezbollah’s targeting of civilians has led Israel to evacuate communities within 10km of the Israeli-Lebanese border. Some 80,000 Israelis from the north are currently internally displaced, and unable to return home due to the threat of Hezbollah violence.
• 11 IDF soldiers and seven civilians have been killed by Hezbollah since 8^th October. According to Hezbollah, 219 of the group’s operatives have been killed by IDF strikes.
• A number of Hezbollah terrorists targeted by Israel in recent weeks have been commanders within the elite Radwan Force.
• The Radwan Force was established to spearheaded Hezbollah attempts to infiltrate and capture Israeli territory, and gained significant combat experience in support of the Assad regime during the Syrian Civil War.
• Following the 7^th October, Israel refuses to allow units such as the Radwan Force to maintain a presence on its borders, especially given Radwan’s analogousness to Hamas’s Nukhba commandos in how they are both intended to infiltrate Israeli territory.
• Israel views the current paradigm of Hezbollah’s presence on its borders as being unacceptable, and holds that Hezbollah must return to its positions north of the Litani River inline with UNSC Resolution 1701.
• While Israel is not proactively seeking war in southern Lebanon, it is increasingly indicating that it is willing to take necessary military to safeguard its citizens and allow those who have been internally displaced to return home.
• Meanwhile, Israel continues its attempts to degrade and destroy Hamas in the Gaza Strip while securing the return of hostages captured on 7^th October:
  • Combat operations continue, primarily in and around Zeitoun in the north of Gaza City and Khan Yunis in the south.
  • While the IDF is preparing to launch an assault on Rafah which is Hamas’s final stronghold in the coastal enclave, it is a realistic possibility that this will be postponed until after Ramadan given ongoing ceasefire negotiations.
  • Qatari-brokered negotiations continue, with US President, Joe Biden indicating that he hopes to see a ceasefire “by next Monday”. Israel and Hamas have both dismissed his comments, with Israel denying his claim that it had agreed to cease fighting by Ramadan.

Looking ahead: While there is no indication of imminent wider Israeli military action in southern Lebanon, it is becoming increasingly likely given the failure of diplomacy to remove Hezbollah from its positions south of the Litani as well as their continued attacks on Israel.

• While France and the US have led diplomatic efforts to secure this outcome, they have thus far proven unsuccessful. As diplomacy fails to secure northern Israeli communities, military action in southern Lebanon becomes increasingly likely.
• The Israeli media has quoted sources close to Hezbollah saying that the group will mirror any ceasefire achieved in Gaza.

1. Several incidents yesterday signalled a ratcheting up of tensions between Israel and Hezbollah on the northern border and an escalation of military actions on both sides. First, Hezbollah shot down an Israeli Air Force Elbit Hermes 450 drone over the area of Nabatieh, in southern Lebanon. In response, Israel struck Hezbollah targets in the north-east Lebanese city of Baalbek, a key Hezbollah stronghold located approximately 100 kilometres from Israel’s northern border. The strike is therefore the deepest inside Lebanon Israel has conducted in many years. The IDF also confirmed it had killed Hassan Hussein Salami, a senior Hezbollah commander, in an airstrike in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah, in turn, fired a barrage of 60 Katyusha rockets at the Golan Heights. There were no reports of injuries. This morning, Hezbollah fired over 40 rockets at the Upper Galilee, with sirens sounding in Zivon, Sassa, Safsufa, and Dovev. Hezbollah announced that these rockets were targeted at the Mount Meron base. Also this morning, Lebanese media report strikes on several southern Lebanese towns, some as far as 30 kilometres from the border.

2. President Biden said yesterday that he hoped a ceasefire in Gaza would be reached by next Monday. An Israeli delegation arrived in Qatar last night to continue hostage/ceasefire negotiations, but Israeli officials briefed the media in less optimistic terms. The proposals on the table would see an initial pause in fighting of a month and a half, during which some 40 of the remaining hostages would be released. In parallel, a number of Palestinian security prisoners would be released from Israeli jails. Israeli media reports today have suggested that this initial pause leading to a longer-term ceasefire should not be ruled out, but that Hamas was balking at a prerequisite for such an arrangement: that its foothold in Gaza end and the Strip be demilitarised. The Israeli War Cabinet yesterday discussed for the first time the details of a potential ground operation in Rafah, Hamas’s last remaining Gazan stronghold.

3. Israel’s Channel 14 violated a Military Censors Office gag order on Sunday evening in order to level further allegations that Israel’s security establishment missed warning signs over October 7^th. The report alleged that at midnight on the night before Hamas began its massacre, information that Hamas terrorists had activated Israeli phone SIM cards was received by Israeli intelligence officials. The IDF acknowledges that such intelligence was received, but says that the channel’s claim of 1,000 SIM cards activated simultaneously is “false and far from reality.” The practice of installing Israeli SIMs was common to previous Hamas training drills, including in the months prior. In the context of the prevailing assessment that Hamas was deterred from large-scale conflict, it was not thought of huge significance on this occasion.

4. Voting in municipal Israeli elections began at 7.00 this morning. The ballot had been delayed four months because of the war, and will be delayed another nine months in 11 local authorities whose citizens have been evacuated. Turnout is expected to be low, with voters’ minds concentrated on the war. With a significant portion of the electorate voting by absentee ballot due to military service, the final results could come as late as March 3^rd. Jerusalem Mayor Leon is expected to comfortably retain his position, while long-time Tel Aviv Mayor Huldai is also expected to prevail.

5. In a move linked to US demands that it reform, Palestinian Authority (PA) Prime Minister Shtayyeh yesterday submitted his resignation to President Abbas. The Biden Administration, which has pushed for a reformed PA to play a leading role in a post-Hamas Gaza, called it a “positive and important step toward achieving a reunited Gaza and West Bank under the Palestinian Authority.” In his remarks to the PA cabinet, Shtayyeh said the immediate future would “require new governmental and political arrangements that take into account the emerging reality in the Gaza Strip, the national unity talks, and the urgent need for an inter-Palestinian consensus.” In addition, it would require “the extension of the Authority’s authority over the entire land, Palestine.” Abbas is thought likely to ask Mohammad Mustafa, chairman of the Palestine Investment Fund, to serve as the next prime minister, though the US, Emirati, and Saudi preference is thought to be former Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, who previously initiated a reformist agenda.

6. Responding to petitions, the High Court yesterday ordered the government to explain why it should not annul its resolution of June 2023 instructing the IDF not to draft ultra-Orthodox men into military service. The case is being heard against the backdrop of the IDF’s plan to extend the service time of conscripts and reservists, in the light of the demands placed on the army by fighting on multiple fronts. The IDF recently announced that over the last year, 66,000 young ultra-Orthodox men had received a deferral from service – a record high. Some 540 of these opted to enlist in the wake of October 7^th and the war in Gaza.  Ministers Gantz and Eisenkot yesterday presented a plan calling for all segments of Israeli society to serve. “All the people of Israel, all parts of society should take part in the right to serve our country. The challenges are enormous, and you cannot look those who are serving in the eyes and tell them that things will go on as they have,” Gantz said.

What’s happened: Following the success of initial talks with US, Egyptian, and Qatari mediators in Paris, an Israeli team has been dispatched to Qatar to continue negotiations which could lead to the release of hostages held in the Gaza Strip and a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

• Senior Israeli officials have expressed cautious optimism that a deal can be reached. One said “at the end of the day, we don’t know what is happening inside Sinwar’s head. It will take a lot of time until the deal ripens, but the direction is good.”
• Prime Minister Netanyahu said “We’re all working on it… I can’t tell you if we’ll have it. But if Hamas goes down from its delusional claims… then we’ll have the progress that we all want… it’s too soon to say if they’ve abandoned [their ‘delusional’ demands].”
• In Paris, Israel, US, and Arab mediators agreed an outline for a potential hostage deal which is now subject to Hamas’s approval.
• If successful, this deal would likely allow for a six week ceasefire, the release of 40 hostages including women, children, female soldiers, the elderly and unwell.
• It would also see Israel release hundreds of Palestinians convicted for terrorist offences currently held in Israeli prisons.
• Hamas is understood to have somewhat softened its previous positions, and has indicated that it is open to the prospect of a temporary ceasefire and redeployment of the IDF within the Gaza Strip rather than a permanent cessation of hostilities and immediate withdrawal.
• However, some of its demands will likely be more difficult for Israel to accept. These include allowing internally displaced Gazans to return home (especially in the north of the Gaza Strip), and the number of Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for Israeli hostages.
• According to Israeli media, Prime Minister Netanyahu is also understood to be demanding that “high-level Palestinian security prisoners” released in a potential deal do not return to the Palestinian Territories but are instead deported to Qatar. Doha’s position on this proposal is unclear.
• There are also reports that Israel is not prepared to advance on the parameters of a deal until it first receives a list specifying which of the 130 hostages held in Gaza since October are still alive.

Context: Although signs of progress are encouraging, a hostage deal remains a distance away.

• Israeli negotiators have been granted a limited mandate while in Doha, and it is understood that these rounds of talks will focus on the technical aspects of a potential deal. In the event of their success, it is likely that their primarily role will be to pave the way for more substantial talks with Hamas.
• Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich has opposed this proposed deal, branding it as “delusional”, and indicating that he would vote against it as its terms are too favourable for Hamas.
• The demand that released high-security Palestinian prisoners be exiled to Qatar rather than return to the Palestinian Territories is also a potential stumbling block in negotiations.
• The IDF continues to set the conditions for its likely impending assault on Rafah, Hamas’s final remaining stronghold in the Gaza Strip. It has presented its evacuation plan for civilians to Israel’s war cabinet, as well as well as an overview of its operational strategy.
• While defeating Hamas in Rafah is a critical war objective for the IDF, Netanyahu has indicated that an assault on the southern Gazan city could be delayed if a hostage deal and truce is reached.
• He said “if we have a deal, it’ll be delayed somewhat. But it’ll happen. If we don’t have a deal, we’ll do it anyway. It has to be done. Because total victory is our goal, and total victory is within reach. Not months away, weeks away once we begin the operation,”
• Combat operations continue across the Gaza Strip, with the IDF’s main efforts remaining in Khan Yunis and north of Gaza City. An operation to degrade and destroy Hamas in the Zeitoun neighbourhood of Gaza City is ongoing, and other similar actions are highly likely.
• Five Israeli troops were seriously wounded in three separate incidents in southern and northern Gaza yesterday: an IED attack, an anti-tank missile attack and a firefight with terrorists.
• The Gaza Strip’s humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate significantly. Israel’s war cabinet has authorised the direct entry of aid into the northern Gaza Strip, while the UK and Jordan have airdropped aid to the Tal al-Hawa Hospital. UNRWA’s chief, Philippe Lazzarini, has said that his agency has reached “breaking point” amid a budgetary shortfall of $450m.
• Meanwhile, Israel continues to fight on multiple fronts:
  • In the past week, Hezbollah has fired numerous rockets and an anti-tank missile at northern Israeli communities, as well as launched a drone which was shot down by the Israeli Air Force. The IDF has launched its own strikes into Lebanon, and two Hezbollah operatives have been killed in an explosion in Qusayr close to the Lebanese-Syrian border. Israel has declined to comment on this incident.
  • Israel’s Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant, has warned that the IDF will increase its strikes against Hezbollah in response to its daily attacks on northern Israeli communities, even during a truce with Hamas in Gaza.
  • The IDF has also confirmed that Hezbollah successfully shot down one of its drones over Nabatieh in southern Lebanon.

Looking ahead: Israeli negotiators will begin laying the groundwork for a potential hostage exchange and ceasefire deal. While unconfirmed, reaching such an agreement before Ramadan would be highly desirable, and it is a realistic possibility that significant progress is made in Doha over the next week.

• Later this week, a second Israeli delegation will head to Cairo for further talks.

Gaza Strip: The IDF continues to operate in the northern, central, and southern Gaza Strip against Hamas combatants and its terror infrastructure.

• In Khan Yunis the IDF announced Tuesday, “troops are continuing intensive operations in western Khan Yunis and killed dozens of terrorists over the past day.”
• The air force struck a “Hamas weapons storage facility in Khan Yunis. During the strike, secondary explosions were identified at the site, indicating that large quantities of weapons were stored at the site.”
• “In the central Gaza Strip, IDF troops are continuing to operate and have killed a number of terrorists over the past day.”
• In Gaza City in the north, IDF troops conducted a “targeted raid in the Zaytun area… During the activity, terrorists were killed, and numerous weapons were located.”
• On Tuesday night, the IDF revealed “large quantities of weapons inside a building adjacent to a UN school in Khan Yunis. The school had been used as a humanitarian shelter for Gazan residents. The weapons found by the IDF include AK-47s, warheads, grenades, RPGs and ammunition. The terrorists used a gap in the school wall as a passage to the adjacent building, from which they took their weapons to use in attacks on IDF soldiers.”
• “In parallel, the soldiers worked to evacuate the civilian population from the combat zone for their safety. Approximately 60 terrorists who were hiding among the civilian population and tried to take advantage of the evacuation process to escape, were detained by the IDF.”
• In the last two days two more IDF soldiers have been killed in action, taking the total to 237 since the ground operation begun.

Lebanon: Hezbollah has kept up its daily attacks across northern Israel, firing rockets, anti-tank missiles and launching drones.

• At least two Hezbollah drones have successfully penetrated Israeli air space. One landed in the garden of Mateh Asher Regional Council Head Moshe Davidovitch’s home. Another one fell near Tiberias on Monday. Neither incident resulted in casualties.
• Israel continues to strike Hezbollah target. Over the last few day,s Israel has carried out strikes in Nabatieh and Blida and has also begun to attack Hezbollah targets deeper into Lebanon, including in Sidon.
• Defence Minister Gallant visited troops in the north on Tuesday and told them, “Every day, the IDF is winning and Hezbollah is losing… Nasrallah’s method of equations has collapsed. The IDF operates in Damascus, in Beirut, in Nabatieh and every place necessary.”

Syria: Syrian media reported this morning that Israel fired a number of missiles at a high-rise apartment building in a Damascus neighbourhood, with reports suggesting two people were killed.

• According to a Syrian official, the target of the attack was an Iranian man who had been in the building.

West Bank: Israeli security forces arrested 40 wanted men across the West Bank Tuesday night.

• In a counterterrorism operation in Jenin, troops arrested a number of suspects and killed terrorists, including by air strikes.
• According to Palestinians sources, Araf Kadumi, the commander of Fatah’s al-Aqsa Martyrs Battalions in Qalqilya was killed. Kadumi also served in the past as part of the Palestinian Authorities Security Forces.
• Palestinians are claiming he is the 400^th casualty in the West Bank since the war began. The vast majority seem to be armed gunmen, or assailants attempting terror attacks.

Context: The IDF’s latest assessment is that around 12,000 of Hamas’s estimated 30,000 combatants have now been killed since the war begun, whilst Hamas has admitted for the first time that 6,000 of their fighters have been killed.

• In addition it’s likely that several more thousand more have been seriously wounded and no longer able to fight.
• The IDF also revealed that the air force have carried out over 31,000 strikes, including over 1,000 in Lebanon and dozens in the West Bank.
• Israel continues to hunt the senior Hamas leadership that has so far managed to evade capture. There is growing speculation over the location of Hamas leader Sinwar who is considered the mastermind of the October 7^th attacks and the highest priority target.
• According to a Saudi media report, Sinwar has escaped from the Gaza Strip into the Sinai and may have taken hostages with him.
• The report could be part of a campaign to delegitimise his leadership in the eyes of the Gazan population. However, Israeli sources say they have no intelligence to support the claim.
• For Israel, he is still most likely hiding in the tunnel network either under Khan Yunis or Rafah.
• Last week, Israel released captured CCTV footage from earlier in the war reportedly showing Sinwar and his family fleeing their home in a tunnel. The release of that footage was also meant to depict him as a coward in retreat.
• On Tuesday, a strategic assessment written by Minister Eisenkot to his partners in the war cabinet was revealed on Channel 12 News. According to the report, Eisnkot gave the following assessments:
  • Stripping Hamas of its military and governmental capabilities—partially achieved.
  • Freeing the hostages—partially achieved.
  • Securing an end to the war in which no threat is posed to Israel from Gaza—not achieved.
  • Restoring security to the residents of the Gaza periphery communities—partially achieved.
  • Improving Israeli citizens’ sense of personal security and national resilience— not achieved.
• Eisenkot included harsh criticism of the war cabinet writing, “In practice, for the past three months no impactful decisions have been made. The war is being run on the basis of tactical achievements, without meaningful efforts to secure the attainment of strategic objectives.”
• For the third time since the war began, the US vetoed a motion at the UN Security Council calling for an immediate ceasefire. The UK once again abstained.

Looking ahead: In parallel to the military campaign, there are efforts to renew talks over a deal to releases the hostages. Israeli negotiators could return to talks in Cairo in the days ahead.

• The IDF is still preparing plans to launch a ground operation into Rafah, but first needs to facilitate another humanitarian corridor for the non-combatants to be evacuated.

What’s happened: The International Court of Justice (ICJ) in the Hague yesterday began hearing the case on the “legal consequences” of Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

• In opening remarks, Palestinian Authority (PA) Foreign Minister Riyad Maliki called on the court to “declare that the Israeli occupation is illegal” and accused Israel of presenting Palestinians with the choices of “ethnic cleansing, apartheid, or genocide”.
• The PA has lobbied the UN General Assembly to press for the court to hear the case, and seeks an advisory opinion declaring the occupation illegal and that Israel must end it, dismantle its settlements, and provide restitution to the Palestinians.
• Israel has opted not to present to the court, instead choosing to submit a written argument. It does not accept the ICJ’s jurisdiction over this particular issue, arguing that advisory opinions should not be issued when the essence of the matter is a political and not a legal dispute.
• The Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs said “By hurling false accusations and creating a fundamentally distorted reality, the Palestinian Authority is trying to turn a conflict that should be resolved through direct negotiations and without external impositions into a one-sided and improper legal process designed to adopt an extremist and distorted narrative according to which the Palestinians have no responsibilities and Israel has no rights, which has nothing to do with justice.”
• “The Court should refrain from participating in this media circus and determine that the Palestinians should return to the existing legal frameworks in order to resolve the conflict through direct negotiations between the parties.” 

Context: The court is hearing this case having already ruled last month that a separate case brought by South Africa accusing Israel of genocide in its war in Gaza should be heard in full. (For more on the background to that case see BICOM’s analysis.)

• In 2022, the United Nations General Assembly requested that the ICJ issue an advisory and non-binding opinion on “Legal Consequences arising from the Policies and Practices of Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem”.
• The UNGA resolution calling for this ICJ case referred to numerous aspects of Israel’s control of the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and its policies towards the Gaza Strip. Palestinian freedom of movement, settler violence, and “the disastrous humanitarian situation” in the Gaza Strip were all specifically mentioned as areas of concern. It also calls for Israel to cease “the transfer of its own population into the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem”, cease settlement activities, lift its blockade on Gaza.
• In 2004, the ICJ issued a similar advisory ruling on the West Bank Security Barrier. While its key findings were that it violated international law, should be dismantled, and that reparations should be made for damages it caused, Israel rejected the ICJ’s position.
• Established by the United Nations Charter in June 1945, the ICJ is the principle judicial organ of the United Nations. Located at the Peace Palace in the Hague, the Court is composed of 15 judges elected for a nine-year term by the UN General Assembly and Security Council.
• The Court has two roles: to settle legal disputes submitted to it by states; and to provide advisory opinions on legal questions referred to it by duly authorised United Nations organs and agencies of the system.
• In contrast to the International Criminal Court (ICC), which deals with criminal prosecution against individuals for war crimes or crimes against humanity, cases dealt with by the ICJ involve states. The ICJ can hear cases brought by any UN member state against any other member state, whether or not they are directly in conflict, when the common interest of the international community is at stake.
• The ICJ’s jurisdiction is based on the mutual consent of the states involved. In last month’s South African case against Israel, this applied as both states are members of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.

Looking ahead: Between 19^th-26^th February 2024, 52 states and three international organisations will present evidence which is expected to overwhelmingly be against Israel. Oral arguments will last a week, and a judgement is expected several months from now.

• While procedurally separate from the South Africa V Israel case alleging genocide in the Gaza Strip, Israel’s conduct during its current war against Hamas is likely to heavily feature in this coming week’s oral arguments.
• While a judgement would be advisory only – so non-binding and without legal ramifications – one ruling against Israel could nevertheless pose significant reputational and diplomatic challenges for Israel.