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Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Key background
  • Hamas is an Islamist Palestinian nationalist movement which currently governs the Gaza Strip. It is proscribed by the UK and in the majority of western countries.
  • Its primary state backers are Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. It is also active in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon.
  • Since seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has continuously launched attacks against Israel and weaponised civilian infrastructure by embedding itself into schools, mosques, and hospitals.
  • Hamas’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel killed 1200, and over 250 hostages were subsequently taken to the Gaza Strip.

Updated November 22, 2023

Israeli cabinet approves limited hostage deal

Hostage deal:  On Tuesday night the cabinet approved the deal to release 50 hostages from Gaza.

  • At the end of a long meeting in which ministers received a detailed security briefing, thirty-five ministers voted in favour and only the three ministers (from Jewish Power) voted against.
  • The deal was also backed by the heads of the security establishment: the army, Shin Bet and Mossad.
  • The arrangement calls for an initial four day pause in fighting.
  • Over the four days Hamas will release 30 children, eight mothers and twelve elderly women, all alive.
  • In return Israel will release around 150 Palestinian terrorists who were not convicted of murder.
  • In addition, hundreds of trucks with , medical aid and fuel will enter the entire Gaza Strip.
  • Hamas claims that Israel would entirely stop the use of aircraft in the southern Gaza Strip for four days. In the northern Gaza Strip, aerial activity will be halted for six hours every day, between 1000 – 1600.
  • The humanitarian corridor will remain open allowing Gazans to leave the north for the south, but not to return to the north.
  • The deal will see three Palestinian minors or women serving prison sentences in Israel released for every Israeli who is freed.
  • At this point the deal only includes Israeli civilians, not soldiers or foreign nationals.
  • The names of the Palestinian terrorists who are to be released will be published later today on an official website, after which anyone who wishes to petition the High Court of Justice against their release will have 24 hours to do so.
  • The deal could be extended; for every release of ten more Israeli hostages there will be an additional day of paused hostilities.
  • The deal is expected to go into effect on Thursday morning.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed that as part of the deal International Red Cross officials would be visiting the remaining hostages.
  • By gaining access inside, the IDF are understood to be cautiously exploring the tunnel, wary that it could be booby trapped, in an effort to gather intelligence and then decommission it.
  • Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) announced the death of one of the Israeli hostages, Hannah Katzir, a 77 year old lady from Kibbutz Nir Oz. Her husband Rami was killed on October 7 when she was kidnapped. Her family confirmed that she was frail and had expressed grave concern for her survival without her regular medication.
  • Earlier in the day IDF Chief of Staff Halevi met with reserve soldiers in the Gaza Strip. He told them, “The ground operations create better conditions for the return of the hostages, and we will continue with this pressure.”
  • The IDF continued its advances on the ground in northern Gaza an air strikes on Hamas targets in the south. 

The north: Hezbollah claimed 13 attacks on Israel throughout yesterday.

  • Early yesterday evening, multiple rockets were launched towards Israel’s Western and Upper Galilee regions, causing sirens to sound in Kiryat Shmona and other communities. The IDF responded with fire to the source of the attacks.
  • Four Hamas terrorists were killed in an Israeli drone strike in Chaatiyeh, southern Lebanon yesterday. Unconfirmed social media reports suggested that one of the dead was Khalil Kharaz, deputy commander of Hamas’s Lebanon wing.
  • Earlier, Lebanese officials claimed that two journalists and a civilian were killed when the IDF struck multiple Hezbollah anti-tank missile squads in southern Lebanon.
  • This strike came in response to three anti-tank guided missiles fired from Lebanon at the Metula area of northern Israel yesterday morning. An Israeli army post on the border also received mortar fire.
  • In response to the Israeli strike, Hezbollah claimed to have fired two anti-tank missiles at the northern community of Menara.
  • Also yesterday, the IDF launched interceptor missiles at several “suspicious aerial targets” – likely drones – which entered Israel’s northern airspace.

Context: The deal came about following intense diplomatic efforts from the US in consultation with the Qataris. On the US side, direct pressure was brought to bear by President Biden, enhanced by the experienced mediation of CIA Director William Burns.

  • Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani led the interaction with Hamas officials, many of whom are based in Doha. Mossad chief Barnea represented Israel in these conversations.
  • Qatar hosts the external Hamas leadership, and conducted its discussions with them, but the negotiations also required buy-in from the Hamas leadership in Gaza.
  • This process was complemented by a second track involving the head of the Shin Bet Ronen Bar, and the head of Egyptian intelligence Abbas Kamel. This is a more familiar track: Egyptian intelligence has often previously acted as conduit between Israel and Hamas.
  • Israel’s security cabinet was thought to have been split on the wisdom of agreeing to deal involving a pause in fighting in Gaza. Defence Minister Gallant favoured pressing home Israel’s advantage, and apparently argued that the more Hamas was degraded, the better a hostage deal could be extracted from its leaders. Ministers Gantz and Eisenkot, as well as Shas leader Aryeh Deri, led the argument in favour of the deal, believing that it was the best, and possible the only, deal Israel could expect to receive.
  • The impassioned publicity campaign waged by the families, which included a march from Tel Aviv to the prime minister’s office, was also effective in persuading the political echelon to favour a deal.
  • Reflecting the debate in the Israeli media, Yediot Ahronot features two opposing opinions, Nahum Barnea arguing in favour and Yossi Yehoshua against.
  • Barnea wrote “the options were bad and the decisions were hard… This isn’t a deal. A deal is a dirty word when talking about a terrorist organisation. This is blackmail, coercion. But in the situation that has developed, Israel has no choice but to pay the price. The alternative of forsaking the hostages a second time, after they were first forsaken on October 7, would have been far worse and far more dangerous. Beyond the price it could end up costing in blood and lives, it would have left an indelible stain on the Israeli government and the IDF.”
  • Yehoshua counters that “the enemy is an irrational actor, a shockingly vicious murderer who is also familiar with Israeli society’s soft underbelly. Just like he recognised the domestic crisis as a window of opportunity for an attack, so too has he utilised the hostages to get oxygen and to prepare for what comes next. From his standpoint, the price is negligible: he doesn’t care about the people of Gaza, and he definitely doesn’t care about the Israeli women and children. Somehow, the monster who sent terrorists to butcher us will still get legitimacy thanks to 50 hostages, out of more than 200, and that legitimacy will help him secure a total ceasefire… the IDF’s offensive momentum will be stopped…”
  • In the latest sign of coordination between the Axis of Resistance, Hezbollah leader Nasrallah met with senior Hamas officials based in Lebanon.
  • Lebanese sources have suggested that the ceasefire will also include the northern border, but Israel has made no official commitment to this.
  • Meanwhile in the West Bank on Tuesday, 5 Palestinians were killed in two IDF drones strikes in Tulkarm.  Among those targeted was Rami al-Shumali, the commander of Fatah’s al-Aqsa Martyrs Battalions in the area, together with operatives from PIJ.

Humanitarian efforts: According to Coordinator of Government Activity in the Territories (COGAT), the following efforts are being made:

  • Jordan is setting up a field hospital in Khan Yunis, which is expected to be operational in a couple of days.
  • A United Arab Emirates field hospital finalised the planning process and expected to be set up in the coming days.
  • 27 Wounded children left Gaza to receive medical care in the UAE.
  • 86 cancer patients left Gaza to receive medical care in Turkey.
  • So far, 354 ill and wounded have exited the Gaza Strip for medical treatment in Egypt, the UAE and Turkey.
  • On Tuesday, 6,500 more people evacuated south. So far, over 350,000 people have evacuated from the northern Gaza Strip to its southern part.

Looking ahead: The ceasefire is expected to begin at 0600 local time tomorrow.

  • The first group of 10-12 Israeli hostages are expected to be released a few hours later.
  • The hostages will be handed over to the Red Cross and then on to the IDF where they will undergo medical examination and then be reunited with their families.
  • It is anticipated that they will all receive a security debrief with extra care taken to provide the children with appropriate paediatric care.

November 21, 2023

IDF continues advance through northern Gaza

Photo credit: IDF

Gaza Strip: The IDF struck approximately 250 Hamas targets over the last day, as it continues its advance through northern Gaza, with focus now heavily directed towards the Zaytun and Jabalia areas.

  • Soldiers from the Combat Engineering, Infantry and Armoured Corps of the 36th Division are now well established in Zaytun and have been engaged in heavy fighting with Hamas local battalion.
  • IDF troops destroyed Hamas military targets and a Palestinian Islamic Jihad weapons production post, where heavy and long-range rockets were located.
  • The soldiers also destroyed tunnel shafts, took control of Hamas command centres, confiscated intelligence material used by the organisation to learn about IDF soldiers, and struck additional buildings from which terrorists fired at IDF soldiers.
  • Commanding Officer of the 36th Division, Brigadier General Dado Bar Kalifa said: “During the last days of the fighting of the 36th Division in Zaytun, we constantly encountered an enemy hiding behind children, women and civilian infrastructure. The soldiers of the division… operated in a complex war zone in an urban area, exposed terrorists who were hiding in civilian areas and eliminated many terrorists.”
  • Ground forces also located a significant weapons stockpile in the residence of a senior Nukhba (Hamas’s elite unit) terrorist. In one raid, troops reported an anti-tank missile found hidden under a baby’s crib.
  • In Jabalia, the IDF says it has completed its encirclement of the area this morning, after striking multiple terror targets in preparation for further ground advances. Targets included three tunnel shafts in which terrorists were hiding.
  • Yesterday, the IDF helped facilitate the safe evacuation of newborn Gazan babies from the Shifa Hospital to Egypt to receive medical treatment.
  • The evacuations were carried out by UN teams, with the assistance of the IDF and at the request of Egypt and the hospital’s director. Israeli incubators were used to protect the babies in transit.
  • In parallel, following the discovery of a 55-metre long tunnel underneath Shifa Hospital, IDF combat engineers successfully breached a blast-proof door and are beginning to explore the interior.
  • Israel’s elite 504 Unit of military intelligence has also revealed the extent of its operation to encourage northern Gazans to move south to avoid the fighting during the war so far.
  • It has made 30,000 phone calls, sent over ten million text messages, over nine million voice messages, and distributed about four million leaflets from the air and land.

Hostages: Prime Minister Netanyahu and the rest of Israel’s war cabinet met with family members of some of the 240 hostages in the Kirya military headquarters in Tel Aviv last night.

  • The start of the meeting was delayed when the room booked to hold it in was found to be too small to accommodate the full list of family members, leaving dozens stuck outside.
  • Some families accused Netanyahu of giving mixed messages regarding the priority being placed on securing the hostages’ safe return.
  • “A few days ago, we met with Gantz and Eisenkot,” said one relative. “We heard from them in an unmistakable way that the overarching goal of the war is the return of the hostages.” This time, however, their sense was that “taking down Hamas and bringing the hostages [home] are … equally important. This is incredibly disappointing because … we know that taking down Hamas, we keep hearing from them [it] is going to take months or years and it’s going to take a long time.”
  • There was also a stormy Knesset meeting yesterday between hostage families and parliamentarians from the Religious Zionism faction. The families made clear their opposition to proposed legislation to institute the death penalty for terrorists as endangering the lives of the hostages.

The north: Hezbollah claimed responsibility for eight attacks on Israel yesterday, as the IDF struck a cell attempting to launch anti-tank missiles in the area of Marwahin in Lebanon yesterday afternoon.

  • IDF tanks, a fighter jet, and a helicopter also struck Hezbollah terror infrastructure in Lebanon.
  • A further 25 launches were attempted from southern Lebanon towards Israel – Israel’s aerial defences intercepted a number with the remainder falling in open areas. The IDF struck the sources of these launches, too.
  • The IDF also struck a terror cell operating in the Metula area of northern Israel.
  • Hezbollah has so far confirmed 77 of its fighters killed since the start of the war.

Context: Israel continues to prosecute the war in the northern sector of the Gaza Strip, with the objective of targeting all remaining Hamas strongholds.

  • 10 of Hamas’s 14 northern battalions are thought to have been significantly disabled, with fighting currently focussed on the remaining four.
  • There are thought to be around 300 combatants who have been arrested. It is hoped that through their questioning further vital intelligence will be gleaned about Hamas’s infrastructure in the Gaza Strip.
  • Combat engineers are carefully exploring the tunnels underneath Shifa Hospital. Intelligence suggests neither Hamas commanders nor hostages remain in the tunnel network under the hospital, and there is concern that the network might be booby-trapped. There is thus a dilemma in whether to risk the lives of soldiers in an effort to prove to the world the extent of Hamas’s use of the hospital.
  • There remains an active debate amongst the decision makers over whether to prioritise the hostage deal now – which would include a pause in fighting – or to maintain pressure on Hamas by continuing the military campaign.
  • The latest potential deal talks about a four day pause. Hamas claims that it does not yet know the location of all child hostages and needs that time to find them and to release them in a staged process. If it succeeds in finding all of the children, there is said to be scope to lengthen the pause further.
  • Two more IDF soldiers were killed in action in Gaza yesterday, bringing the total number killed in the ground incursion to 68. Gazan sources suggest that over 13,000 Palestinians have died in Gaza, with Israeli sources strongly believing that several thousand combatants have been killed.
  • Though the Israeli advance through northern Gaza has slowed the rate of rocket launches on Israel considerably, Hamas and other terrorist organisations still retain the ability to fire from the southern Strip. Tel Aviv last night came under heavy rocket barrage.
  • It is estimated that Hamas now has left only 15 percent of its pre-war rocket arsenal.
  • From the hostage families’ perspective, anything which endangers the lives of the hostages – such as, they argue, the death penalty legislation – should be off the table. Its proponents argue that it would provide further leverage against Hamas to extract further concessions on the hostages.
  • Legislation is not actually required to institute the death penalty for terrorists. Such a move would be at the discretion of the defence minister.

Looking ahead: Military officials said they expected the full takeover of Zaytun to be completed within a week.

  • Israel awaits Hamas’s final terms for a hostage deal before it can be put to the full Israeli cabinet for a vote, with Hamas official Izat al-Rashak saying “there is real progress in the negotiations. We are very close to announcing the Hudna agreement in the next few hours.”
  • The cabinet is aware of two conflicting timelines: how long it will take to complete the takeover of the northern strip and a pause in fighting included in a hostage deal.

November 20, 2023

Cautious optimism over partial hostage deal

Hostages: There is mounting speculation over an arrangement that will see the release of around 52 hostages: children, their mothers as well as possibly the sick and elderly held captive inside Gaza.

  • Negotiations, mediated by the US and Qatar, are thought to have reached an understanding that in return for the hostages, Israel will agree to a four or five day ceasefire, allow 200 trucks a day of to enter Gaza from Egypt and release between 150-250 Palestinian prisoners – women and teenagers.
  • The outstanding issues are thought to be logistical, including the sequencing of the release and Hamas’s insistence that the ceasefire includes Israel halting its aerial intelligence via monitoring drones. Hamas claim that they will spend the first day of the ceasefire finding the kidnapped children whose location they do not know, but can’t do this if they are being tracked.
  • Another demand of Hamas is to allow to also reach the northern Gaza Strip.

Shifa Hospital: The IDF continued their operation in the northern Gaza Strip, including in the Shifa Hospital compound.

  • The IDF presented more evidence that the hospital was used as terrorist infrastructure.
  • IDF troops exposed a 55-metre-long terror tunnel 10 meters deep underneath the hospital complex. The IDF noted, “A deep staircase leads to the entrance of the tunnel shaft, which consists of various defence means including a blast-proof door and a firing hole. This type of door is used by the Hamas terrorist organisation to block Israeli forces from entering the command centres and the underground assets belonging to Hamas. The tunnel shaft was uncovered in the area of the hospital underneath a shed alongside a vehicle containing numerous weapons including RPGs, explosives, and Kalashnikov rifles.”
  • The IDF also releases footage, taken from CCTV at the hospital entrance, showing Hamas terrorists forcibly transporting hostages – a Nepalese civilian and a Thai civilian, who were kidnapped from Israeli territory.
  • The IDF also found the bodies of two of the hostages in different buildings near the hospital.
  • An IDF vehicle stolen during the massacre can also be seen inside the hospital area.
  • The IDF continues to operate in other neighbourhoods to the West of Gaza City. During operations, the IDF arrested over 100 Hamas terrorists, three of whom are from the elite Nukhba unit which took part in the October 7th Massacre. The IDF have also killed a dozen more combatants, including three additional Hamas company commanders.

Iranian proxies: Attacks from Hezbollah towards northern Israel appeared to intensify again on Sunday, with 11 attacks recorded across the length of the Lebanese border.

  • Meanwhile, in the Red Sea off the coast of Yemen, the Houthis hijacked a cargo ship partly owned by an Israeli businessman.
  • Israel, according to the Israeli Prime Miniter’s office, “strongly condemns the Iranian attack against an international vessel. The ship, which is owned by a British company and is operated by a Japanese firm, was hijacked with Iran guidance by the Yemenite Houthi militia. Onboard the vessel are 25 crew members of various nationalities including Ukrainian, Bulgarian, Filipino and Mexican. No Israelis are onboard. This is another act of Iranian terrorism and constitutes a leap forward in Iran’s aggression against the citizens of the free world, with international consequences regarding the security of the global shipping lanes.”

Context: The evidence presented from Shifa appears to back up the IDF claim, “that numerous buildings in the hospital’s complex are used by Hamas as cover for terrorist infrastructure and activities. This is further evidence of the cynical manner [in which] Hamas uses the residents of the Gaza Strip as a human shield for their murderous terrorist activities.”

  • Having initially entered from the north and the centre, bisecting the Strip and surrounding Gaza City, the IDF is targeting other Hamas strongholds in the west.
  • The overall fighting remains intense. Over the weekend, several more IDF soldiers have been killed, taking the total in over three weeks of the ground campaign to 65.
  • According to military intelligence, of Hamas’s 24 Battalions, 14 are in the northern half of the Strip, 10 of which are now significantly depleted. Those that escaped are thought to have  joined the remaining four.
  • In his weekly address on Saturday night, Prime Minister Netanyahu added a third objective of the war (after destroying Hamas and returning the captives), that on the days after, “it is impossible to put in Gaza an authority that supports terror, abets terror, and pays terrorists.” Adding, “there is another condition that I set for the day after: the IDF will have complete freedom of action in the Gaza Strip against any threat. Only in this way will we guarantee the demilitarisation of Gaza.”
  • This appears to rule out the Palestinian Authority (PA) assuming control, which puts the Israeli government at odds with the US. However Netanyahu also believes, “we will reach an agreement with the US also about this.”
  • On Sunday the PA appeared to compound their problematic stance, releasing a statement suggesting that it was Israeli helicopters that bombed and killed Israeli civilians on October 7 during the Supernova music festival. They later deleted the statement.
  • Netanyahu responded harshly, calling the statement “utterly preposterous.” He added, “it isn’t enough that for 44 days Abu Mazen has refused to condemn the terrible massacre, now his men are denying that massacre and are turning the tables on Israel. Abu Mazen the Holocaust-denier is now denying the Hamas-ISIS massacre.
  • In a more supportive stance, Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad of Bahrain condemned Hamas. He described the October 7th massacre of Israelis as “barbaric” and demanded the release of the Israeli hostages.
  • Regarding the potential hostage deal, the inner war cabinet appears divided. Ministers Gantz and Eisenkot have argued that this opportunity won’t return and that this is the right time to secure the release of the women and children. Defence Minister Gallant favours continuing the fighting in order to defeat Hamas. There is concern that the ceasefire will give Hamas valuable days to reorganise and resupply.

Looking ahead: Tonight the War Cabinet will meet with representatives of the families of the hostages.

  • Any deal will need to be approved by the full cabinet.

November 17, 2023

Body of hostage found near Shifa Hospital

What happened: The IDF yesterday recovered the body of Yehudit Weiss, a 65-year-old mother of five kidnapped by Hamas from Kibbutz Be’eri on October 7th.

  • Weiss’s body was found in a building near Gaza City’s Shifa Hospital, along with military equipment, including assault rifles and RPGs.
  • “To our sorrow, Yehudit was murdered by the terrorists in the Gaza Strip. And we didn’t get to her in time,” IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said.
  • Weiss’s daughter Zemer said, “it’s important for us to say that we fought, we battled in every possible way to bring mom, grandma Yehudit home. For us, it is too late, but it is important for us to support all the families of the hostages, and to tell the world, bring them home now, so that for them it is not too late, like it was for us.”
  • The IDF also announced the recovery of the body of 19-year-old Cpl. Noa Marciano, another hostage, whose death it announced earlier this week.
  • Troops discovered Marciano’s body in another building near Shifa hospital, with Prime Minister Netanyahu last night telling CBS that Israel has solid information that some of the hostages were held in the hospital.
  • Asked about the prospects of a deal being reached to free some of the hostages, Netanyahu said “we are closer than before we began the ground action. The ground action has put pressure on Hamas to achieve a ceasefire. We’ll have a temporary ceasefire if we can get our hostages.”
  • The IDF continued its attacks in Gaza last night, including air strikes and ground battles.
  • Troops also raided a Palestinian Islamic Jihad outpost in northern Gaza, locating Iran-made Badr-3 rockets, drones, and other weapons.
  • In raids on Hamas targets, troops founds assault rifles, explosive devices, RPGs, anti-tank missile launchers, and other equipment.
  • In the north, the IAF attacked Hezbollah targets last night, and Hezbollah fired several anti-tank missiles at IDF posts near Biranit and Rosh Hanikra.
  • also claimed that Israel fired missiles at targets in the area of Damascus last night.
  • In the West Bank, the IDF says it killed five Palestinian gunmen during an overnight counter-terror operation in Jenin.
  • Seven wanted suspects were arrested in the raid, and weapons captured.
  • US Secretary of State Blinken spoke with Minister Gantz yesterday. They discussed the hostages and increasing for the Gaza Strip. Blinken also expressed US concern over settler violence in the West Bank.

Context: Weiss’s husband Shmulik was murdered by Hamas in its rampage through Be’eri, his body discovered in the family safe room a week and a half later.

  • A member of the Combat Intelligence Collection Corps 414th unit, Marciano was serving at the Nahal Oz IDF base when it was attacked by Hamas.
  • On Monday, Hamas had released a video of Marciano four days after having been kidnapped, identifying herself and reciting the names of her parents and her hometown. The video then showed her dead body.
  • Hostage negotiations are facilitated by a series of talks via the US, Egypt and Qatar and then onto Hamas leaders. The process is complicated by limited contact with Hamas leaders inside Gaza.
  • The contours of the deal being discussed are thought to comprise:
    • Hamas will release 50 hostages, comprising children with their mothers.
    • Israel will agree to three to five days of ceasefire.
    • Israel will allow in more fuel and .
    • Israel will release 150 prisoners, including minors over 16, who have not committed murder.
  • The security cabinet is thought to be divided on its approach to such a deal, with Defence Minister Gallant said to believe that Hamas is on the verge of collapse, with three IDF battalions making swift advances in Gaza.
  • Gallant foresees this being the first of several hostage negotiations and so is eager to reduce the concessions made by Israel in return for the first group of hostage releases.
  • Ministers, and war cabinet members, Gantz and Eisenkot are thought to be more pessimistic and think that the deal currently on offer might well be the only offer Israel receives.
  • Any hostage deal will first be approved by the security cabinet, but according to Israeli law the whole cabinet needs to vote on it.
  • The IDF has provided further evidence of Hamas’s widespread use of hospitals. A tunnel shaft with a car that was supposed to be used in the attack on the Gaza periphery communities was found inside Shifa Hospital, with multiple weapons inside.
  • Weapons were also discovered in Al Quds Hospital, and a terrorist tunnel in Rantisi Hospital.
  • Israel does not generally comment on attacks on targets in .
  • The US has expressed increasing concern over both the humanitarian situation in Gaza and the situation of patients and staff inside hospitals. It has also supported Israeli evidence of Hamas’s use of hospitals.
  • Netanyahu said that Israel was engaging with hospitals “very gingerly because we’re trying to do the moral thing, the right thing, to deprive Hamas of having this safe zone in a hospital, but at the same time to neutralise its use as a command centre for terror. And so far we’ve achieved that.”

Looking ahead: Family members of the hostages are currently on the fourth day of a march from Tel Aviv to the Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem, which they are expected to reach on Saturday. They aim to keep the focus on the hostages and pressure the government to prioritise their safe return.

  • Israel continues to search for tunnel shafts within the Shifa hospital complex, in the knowledge that Hamas had time to remove the most incriminating evidence and for key commanders to escape among the civilians

November 16, 2023

The IDF continues to operate within the Shifa hospital compound

Gaza Strip: According to the IDF, they discovered an “operational command centre, weapons, and technological assets in the MRI building of the Shifa Hospital.”

  • “In another department in the hospital, the soldiers located an operational command centre and technological assets belonging to Hamas, indicating that the terrorist organisation uses the hospital for terrorist purposes.”
  • In the initial entry, the IDF killed several gunmen at the entrance to the hospital. According to Al-Jazeera, 200 Palestinians were arrested.
  • The IDF also took over Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh’s residence (Haniyeh is based in Qatar), which according to the IDF, “was used as terrorist infrastructure, and often served as a meeting point for Hamas’ senior leaders to direct terror attacks against Israeli civilians and IDF soldiers.”
  • In addition, during operations in the Shati neighbourhood, “IDF troops located and destroyed a Hamas naval forces weapons cache, containing diving gear, explosive devices, and weapons. IDF troops also struck terrorists and located weapons including explosive belts, explosive barrels, RPGs, anti-tank missiles, comms equipment, and intelligence documents.”
  • In the course of the fighting two more IDF soldiers were killed, taking the total to 50 since the ground operation began.
  • According to Hamas, the Gazan death toll has reached 11,500. It is not clear how many of them were combatants.
  • Israel also allowed 23,000 litres of diesel to enter into Gaza via Egypt under the auspice of the UN.

Hostages: There is continued speculation for a deal.

  • The latest contours suggest:
    • Hamas release 50 hostages, comprising children with their mothers.
    • Israel will agree to three to five days of ceasefire.
    • Israel will allow in more fuel and .
    • Israel will release 150 prisoners, including minors over 16, who have not committed murder.
  • The mechanism suggests that the ceasefire will only start once the first batch are released. There will then be a staggered release on both sides each day of the ceasefire.
  • Israel is also demanding that Hamas takes full responsibility for all the children, so as not to claim that some are held by other factions or cannot be found.
  • Israel has further demands, with some government officials arguing that by continuing the fighting at this point they can extract further concessions, including the release of closer to 100 hostages including all the children and their parents.
  • The negotiations are facilitated by a series of talks via the US, Egypt and Qatar and then onto Hamas leaders. The process is complicated by limited contact with Hamas leaders inside Gaza.
  • Any deal will first be approved by the security cabinet, but according to Israeli law the whole cabinet needs to vote on it. Last night a meeting to convene the full cabinet was cancelled.

UK Parliament: A Scottish National Party motion calling for a ceasefire in the House of Commons was defeated by 293 votes against to 125 in favour last night.

  • The Israeli embassy in London welcomed the result of the vote, saying “the UK parliament vote this evening shows a strong moral clarity.”
  • Eight shadow junior members from the UK opposition Labour party either resigned or were fired last night after rebelling against the party in voting for a ceasefire.
  • A total of 56 Labour MPs voted for the motion, with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer having warned in advance that shadow cabinet members would face consequences for doing so.
  • Starmer has continued to back Israel’s right to defend itself, and to support the US position, shared with the UK government, in favour of humanitarian pauses rather than a ceasefire.
  • His position has caused divisions within the party, with a number of local government officials across the country resigning from the party.
  • Saying he regretted the decisions of his frontbench colleagues, Starmer affirmed that “alongside leaders around the world, I have called throughout for adherence to international law, for humanitarian pauses to allow access for aid, food, water, utilities and medicine, and have expressed our concerns at the scale of civilian casualties.”
  • He added: “leadership is about doing the right thing. That is the least the public deserves. And the least that leadership demands.”
  • Labour’s own motion calling for humanitarian pauses was defeated by 290 to 183 votes.
  • Elsewhere in Parliament, dozens of British MPs yesterday viewed a screening of the IDF’s raw footage of October 7th obtained from Hamas bodycams.

UN Security Council: The council last night agreed a resolution introduced by Malta calling for the implementation of “urgent and extended humanitarian pauses and corridors throughout the Gaza Strip”.

  • It further called for “all parties [to] comply with their obligations under international law, notably with regard to the protection of civilians, especially children.”
  • The resolution made no condemnation of Hamas, nor mentioned its devastating attack of October 7th in which at least 1,200 Israelis were killed.
  • The US, UK, and Russia abstained from the vote, resulting in a 12-0 vote in favour. US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield explained the American abstention by saying that “there’s no excuse for failing to condemn these acts of terror. Let’s be crystal clear … Hamas set this conflict in motion.”
  • Russia proposed an amendment calling for a more immediate ceasefire. It was defeated when it failed to gain sufficient votes, hence its abstention from vote on the main resolution.
  • In response, Israeli ambassador to the UN Gilad Erdan said the resolution “will have no meaning in practice” and that Israel “is acting according to international law, while the Hamas terrorists will not read the resolution at all and will not act on it.”
  • The Israeli Foreign Ministry also responded, saying there would be “no room for extended humanitarian pauses as long as 239 hostages are still in the hands of Hamas terrorists.”
  • The vote was the first time the council succeeded in passing a resolution since October 7th, with four previous resolutions having failed – one introduced by Brazil was vetoed by the US, a US resolution was vetoed by Russia and China, and two Russian-drafted resolutions failed to get the minimum yay votes.

Context: From the Israeli perspective the Shifa hospital has been considered an infamous Hamas stronghold for over a decade.

  • With IDF advances over the last week, Hamas had time to remove the most incriminating evidence and for key commanders to escape among the civilians. Meanwhile, searches continue for tunnel shafts within the hospital complex.
  • Whilst not capturing or killing senior Hamas leadership, the IDF’s more cautious approach to the hospital bought it important credit, especially with the Biden administration, allowing them to continue operations.
  • Hamas deliberately used the hospital as a base, precisely because they felt it gave them immunity from aerial attack. It could also use the hospital’s power supply for operating the underground tunnel system.
  • The IDF’s public campaign of messages to the Gazan population and direct conversations with hospital staff led to the evacuation of around 50,000 people who were in the hospital compound a week ago, down to an estimated 1,500, roughly half patients, half staff.
  • In parallel to the elite commandos that continue to search the hospital, the IDF also brought in vital medical equipment, including incubators for the premature babies, and to ensure they keep their power supply.
  • Israel’s position remains that a pause or extended ceasefire is out of the question as long as Hamas and its fellow Gazan terrorists retain the hostages.
  • It is also disinclined to provide Hamas time to regroup, re-arm and jeopardise the Israeli gains in the northern Strip, and is concerned that, based on experience from previous rounds of fighting, international pressure will only increase if it re-engages after an extensive pause.
  • In the north of Israel, Hezbollah continued to launch rockets into Israel. Yesterday 20 rockets landed in open areas.
    • One landed in the town of Shlomi.
    • Three anti-tank missiles were fired toward IDF positions on the border.
    • In all these instances, the IDF returned fire to the source.
  • This morning there was a terror attack on the tunnels road south of Jerusalem. Initial reports suggest three terrorists opened fire, four people were injured one in critical condition, the three gunmen were shot and killed.

Looking ahead: The search of the hospital is expected to continue. In order to maintain legitimacy the IDF is conscious to keep their activity as transparent as possible, and continue to allow international media to be embedded among the troops.

  • With the IDF in control of northern Gaza there remains significant Hamas military infrastructure in the south. Eastern neighbourhoods of the southern Gaza city of Khan Yunis have been warned to evacuate their homes to proscribed safe zones elsewhere in the south.
  • It is anticipated that the UK’s new Foreign Secretary, Lord Cameron, will visit Israel soon.

November 15, 2023

IDF enters Al-Shifa Hospital

Gaza Strip: IDF troops entered the hospital compound in Gaza City early this morning.

  • IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari said the IDF’s military activity is taking place according to operational needs, “in a specified complex for which there is intelligence information indicating terrorist activity.”
  • Before entering the hospital, IDF forces encountered explosives and terrorist squads and a fight ensued during which terrorists were eliminated.
  • As part of a humanitarian effort, the IDF confirmed this morning that incubators, baby food and medical supplies have now reached the hospital. Hagari added that “medical teams of the IDF, together with Arabic speaking soldiers, are present in the field to make sure that the medical equipment reaches those who need it.”
  • Earlier yesterday, IDF officials said that a search of the basement of Rantisi Hospital had turned up several suicide vests, rockets, and anti-tank missiles, in addition to potential signs that hostages had been there.
  • The IDF has also assumed operational control of the Al-Shati refugee camp in Gaza City and has and continued to seize other Hamas governmental and military assets in Gaza City.
  • Defence Minister Gallant said, “Hamas has lost control, and we control the entire area of the northern Gaza Strip, and in particular in Gaza City. The entire city is in practice a single terrorist fortress. We haven’t the moral right to stop the fighting as long as the hostages are held.”
  • In addition, IDF ground troops yesterday located a Hamas training camp containing terror tunnel shafts, classrooms, intelligence material, and weapons including rockets and loaded RPGs.
  • Despite the IDF’s control over northern Gaza, sporadic rockets continued to be launched from southern Gaza.  A 20-year-old man was seriously wounded and a woman in her forties was slightly wounded by shrapnel from a rocket that fell in Tel Aviv.

The North: In a relatively quieter day in the northern section, there were four instances of anti-tank four directed towards northern Israel, with no injuries reported. The IDF targeted an additional four cells before they were able to launch attacks.

  • A senior member of Hamas in Lebanon, Osama Hamdan, said it still intends to continue attacking Israel. “We are telling the occupation that the battle is still at the beginning,” Hamdan said at a press conference, “What is coming is bigger.”

Hostages: Israel’s War Cabinet received an update on the negotiations for a potential hostage deal.

  • Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar was in Egypt for talks with with Director of the Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate Abbas Kamel in an attempt to advance a deal.
  • Families of the hostages set off on a march from the Tel Aviv square dubbed ‘Hostages Plaza’ to PM Netanyahu’s office in Jerusalem, demanding a full deal to release all captives.

Context: Israeli forces now exercise effective control over northern Gaza, including over Hamas’s parliament building in Gaza City.

  • Israel continues to try and advance its two primary objectives – toppling the Hamas regime in Gaza and badly damaging its military capabilities, as well as freeing the hostages.
  • Israeli forces now exercise effective control over northern Gaza, including over Hamas’s parliament building in Gaza City.
  • It has, for several weeks, urged Gazan civilians to move south away from fighting and hospitals in conflict areas to begin evacuation processes.
  • The IDF assesses it has mapped out 95 per cent of the underground city beneath Shati, considered one of Hamas’ main infrastructure centres, 30 per cent of which has already been destroyed.
  • Hamas’ Security Square and the parliament building, which originally belonged to the Palestinian Authority and which Hamas took by force in 2007, has also been taken.
  • Two brigades deployed by Hamas in northern Gaza and Gaza City have been critically harmed and their chain of command is only partially functioning. Yet three other brigades in the refugee camps in the centre of Gaza and in Khan Yunis and Rafah, have sustained little damage and are still maintaining a chain of command and control. Hamas does not seem to be in any rush to surrender.
  • A possible deal is being discussed which would include the release of dozens of kidnapped civilians in exchange for dozens of Palestinian female prisoners, teenagers or sick prisoners, a humanitarian truce and the introduction of fuel and additional aid to the Strip.
  • US President Joe Biden said he believes the release of hostages held by Hamas is “going to happen, but I don’t want to get into any details.” Israel continues to rate the chances of reaching a deal as “moderate.”
  • Disagreement remains over the number of hostages to be released, and humanitarian relief measures that Israel would have to permit in exchange. Israeli officials have said that they doubt that Hamas will agree to release all the children and women in the deal, believing that Hamas will try to hold onto as many means of pressure as possible on the hostages’ families and, through them, on the broader public and the government.
  • Palestinian Islamic Jihad has said it may wait for “better conditions” to release the 34 hostages it holds and may opt out of any deal between Israel and Hamas.
  • The IDF believes Hamas held hostages beneath Al-Shifa Hospital. About 700 patients along with another 800 staff and others remain in the hospital. By sending in medical teams, the IDF is making a clear distinction between Gazan civilians and Hamas fighters.
  • Beyond the southern and northern front, Israel continues to contend with threats from Yemen. A surface-to-surface missile, believed to have been launched from Yemen at Eilat was intercepted over the Red Sea by the Arrow air defence system.
  • Senior US official Brett McGurk arrived in Israel today for the start of a regional visit.
  • McGurk’s agenda is the expansion of humanitarian assistance to Gaza, application of economic pressure on Hamas, to demand the immediate release of the hostages, and to consult on a viable pathway to a Palestinian state.

Looking ahead: Israel will allow UNRWA fuel trucks to enter the Gaza Strip via the Rafah border crossing to facilitate the agency’s ongoing humanitarian work in southern Gaza.

  • After its impressive achievements in the northern Gaza Strip, Israel will soon likely have to contend with the south, in which Hamas retains control and into which approximately 1 million northern Gazans have now fled.
  • The leader of the Houthis says the group will continue attacks on Israel, and that they are “looking for Israeli ships in the Red Sea.”

November 14, 2023

Israel finds Hamas base under hospital

Gaza Strip: Israel last night presented evidence that Hamas has used the basement of Gaza City’s Rantisi Hospital as a significant base of operations.

  • Having taken control of the hospital, IDF troops from the Navy’s elite Shayetet 13 commando unit and the 401st Armoured Brigade discovered a weapons trove in the basement, including suicide-bomb vests, grenades, AK-47 assault rifles, explosive devices, and RPGs.
  • In announcing the discovery, IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said that there was also evidence that the subterranean site had been used to hold some of the hostages.
  • “The Hamas terrorists returned from the October 7 attack after slaughtering Israelis and burning babies and women alive and came back to hide out under Rantisi Hospital and other hospitals around the Strip,” he said.
  • “This is a war crime, this is a crime against humanity,” he added.
  • The news came as troops continue to surround Gaza City’s Shifa Hospital.
  • Israel has made repeated efforts to evacuate patients from hospitals in northern Gaza, and says it continues to work with doctors to move patients and hospital staff to adjacent safe routes.
  • Officials in Israel and in Gaza have been trying to make arrangements for acute patients to be moved to hospital wards in the southern Gaza Strip.
  • Doctors at Shifa are also preparing to transfer 37 premature babies currently in the hospital. Israel has organised incubators that will be delivered to the hospital this morning
  • “Our war is against Hamas, not against the people in Gaza. Especially not the sick, the women, or the children,” Hagari said. “Our war is against Hamas who uses them as human shields.”
  • Israeli Defence Minister Gallant spoke publicly yesterday, and said that “The IDF is advancing at every location. The Hamas organisation has lost control in Gaza: Terrorists are fleeing south, civilians are looting Hamas bases. They have no confidence in the government.”
  • “Our troops are advancing, he added, and “are completing their missions according to plan. Every day we kill more Hamas commanders, [and] tens and sometimes hundreds of terrorists, and the IDF has reached the centre of Gaza City and is operating according to its own needs.”
  • Images have circulated on social media appearing to show the IDF’s Golani Brigade inside Hamas’s military police headquarters, having apparently captured it.
  • Two more IDF troops were killed in the Gaza Strip yesterday, taking the total to 46 since the start of the ground incursion.
  • Israel has also confirmed that Vivian Silver, the renowned 74-year-old peace activist declared missing on October 7th, died in the Hamas attacks.

The north: Following the weekend’s intensified clashes with Hezbollah on the northern border, two IDF soldiers were wounded yesterday by a Hezbollah anti-tank guided missile attack in the Netu’a area.

  • The Israel Electric Corporation also confirmed that one of its staff injured on Sunday by a Hezbollah-claimed anti-tank missile has died.
  • Yesterday, the IDF carried out a number of strikes against Hezbollah infrastructure, an anti-tank missile cell, launch sites, compounds with weapons depots, and a command centre.
  • This morning, air defences downed a “suspicious target” off the coast of Acre.

The West Bank: the IDF operated overnight in the West Bank Tulkarem refugee camp. Weapons were found in searches and the IDF confirmed it had targeted a drone strike at Palestinians throwing explosives at troops.

  • The Palestinian Authority health ministry said at least six Palestinians were killed during the operation.

Context: Rantisi Hospital is used primarily as a facility for child patients, and the discoveries give credence to Israel’s long-held view that Hamas uses medical facilities as operations bases and their patients as human shields.

  • Under international law, hospitals are offered protective status. However, they can lose that status if a party to the conflict opts to use them for military purposes.
  • The US has reaffirmed its wish that fighting not take place in hospitals, President Biden saying yesterday that “I have not been reluctant expressing my concerns with what’s going on. My hope and expectation is that there will be less intrusive action” in hospitals.
  • On Sunday, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan made similar remarks, while recognising the difficulty Israel faces when “Hamas is operating in a way that is outside the bounds of any civilized concept of how you would think about using a hospital, using human shields.”
  • The UN today estimated that at least 200,000 northern Gazans had heeded Israel’s repeated warnings to move south over the last ten days.
  • In a press briefing yesterday, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said that Israel recognised that international pressure to cease its operation in the Gaza Strip would begin increase in the coming weeks.
  • Cohen said, “In the talks I’ve held with foreign leaders, they’ve placed emphasis on the humanitarian issue in the Gaza Strip, whereas the proportion of solidarity and shock from the October 7 massacre is decreasing. In political terms, we are seeing that pressure on Israel has begun. That pressure isn’t very high, but it is trending upward… We will continue in any event according to plan.”
  • Cohen also revealed that he was working with European states to create a “maritime humanitarian corridor” to the Strip, to aid the transfer of vital equipment and supplies to the population.
  • The IDF’s advances are having a material impact on the threat to Israel from Hamas rockets. Data from the week November 5th to 12th showed the lowest number of Israeli rocket alerts (455) in any period since October 7th.
  • In total, over 10,000 rockets have been fired on Israel since October 7th, with the IDF assessing that Hamas retains a significant rocket arsenal which it is keeping in reserve for a long war.
  • This morning, sirens sounded in Nirim, near the border with the central Gaza Strip.
  • Despite some Israeli voices recommending a front-foot approach to a potential war with Hezbollah, the policy remains to contain the conflict on the northern front.
  • Hezbollah, too, has hitherto shown little evidence of an inclination to escalate, though its aggression over the weekend indicated a new posture.
  • There is a consensus in Israel that the northern border communities that have already been evacuated will not return to their homes unless the Hezbollah threat, and specifically their elite Radwan fighters remain poised on the border, is neutralised.
  • The IDF’s objective is therefore to remove that immediate threat and push Hezbollah north, beyond the Litani River.

Looking ahead: Speculation continues regarding a potential deal to free some of the hostages. The most cited contours of an agreement would see Israeli women and children released in groups, alongside Palestinian women and young people held in Israeli prisons.

  • A pause to the fighting in Gaza to allow for the safe release of hostages and the transfer of further aid would likely be another component.
  • The families of the hostages are planning public demonstrations over the next five days to maintain the pressure on the government to prioritise a deal.

November 13, 2023

Hezbollah escalates attacks in the north

Lebanon: Sunday saw the most serious escalation in the north. In a series of attacks 18 Israelis; soldiers and civilians were injured. In a series of attacks, 18 Israelis – soldiers and civilians – were injured.

  • In Moshav Dolev, four vehicles suffered a direct hit from anti-tank missile fire, and ten civilians were wounded. Of the wounded, six worked for the Electricity Corporation and were there to make repairs. One of the workers is in critical condition and five others in serious condition.
  • In the area of Manara, seven soldiers were wounded from an anti-tank missile.
  • Around 15 rockets were fired towards the Western Galilee, including Acco and Kiryat Bialik. Four were intercepted, the rest fell in open areas.
  • There were also rockets and mortars fired at other areas, including Kiryat Shmone and Gornot Hagalil.
  • A further two or three attacks on IDF soldiers have not yet been confirmed.
  • In response to the attacks, the IDF used an array of ground and air to strike a number of Hezbollah targets. At least three launch cells were targeted, along with other military infrastructure inside Lebanon.
  • For the first time since the war began, more air raid sirens were heard in the north than in southern Israel.
  • This morning, at least 20 more rockets have been fired from Lebanon into Northern Israel, with no injuries reported yet.

Gaza Strip: On Sunday, the IDF provided 300 litres of fuel for urgent medical purposes for the Shifa Hospital, however Hamas prevented the hospital from receiving the fuel.

  • The fuel is currently outside the compound in jerry cans. Although the IDF are not yet fully in control of the area, they are said to be guarding the fuel so it is not expropriated by Hamas.
  • In parallel, the IDF opened an additional passage to assist Gazan civilians to evacuate from the Shifa, Rantisi and Nasser hospitals
  • The IDF are in direct contact with the Shifa Hospital director to coordinate safe passage allowing civilians to evacuate, on foot and by ambulances.
  • Last week, there were around 60,000 people in the hospital compound, now down to 1,000.
  • During the fighting, the IDF continued their impressive tactical successes, revealing how intercepting real time intel and relaying to the troops on the ground allowed infantry soldiers to kill seven terrorists within ten minutes.
  • The IDF has struck over 15,000 terror targets, destroyed over 100 terror tunnel shafts and more than 6000 weapons while operating within the Gaza Strip.
  • In the last day, two more soldiers have been killed, taking the total to 44 since the ground operation began.
  • Israel estimates over 3,000 Hamas fighters have been killed, but neither side has released details. According to the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry, over 10,000 Palestinians have been killed.
  • Israel is jointly coordinating efforts to bring in , along with the US, Egypt, and the UN. More than 820 trucks containing approximately 13,200 tons of aid have entered into Gaza, including over 3,000 tons of food, 1,720+ tons of medical equipment, 600+ tons of equipment for temporary shelters and over 1.15 million litres of water.

Context: The escalation in the north compounds the strategic dilemmas for Israeli decision makers.

  • The IDF remains focused on targeting and decommissioning Hamas military infrastructure, whilst pressuring Hamas to release hostages.
  • In theory, the IDF has capacity to fight a second front simultaneously, with only 10 per cent of the Israeli Air Force committed to the south. However, the preference until now has been to keep the focus on the south and only then to turn to the north.
  • There is a consensus in Israel that the northern border communities that have already been evacuated will not return to their homes unless the Hezbollah threat, and specifically their elite Radwan fighters remain poised on the border, is neutralised.
  • The IDF’s objective is therefore to remove that immediate threat and push Hezbollah north, beyond the Litani River.
  • There are efforts, led by the US and France, to find a diplomatic solution to remove Hezbollah from the south, but there is limited expectation this can succeed.
  • Israel’s approach until now has been to target cells that launch attacks, either during or after, even sometimes beforehand. In this way that been These efforts have been successful in decommissioning Hezbollah’s capacity and have so far killed 73 Hezbollah operatives.
  • Part of the calculation is how to respond to every attack in a calibrated manner that causes damage without provoking Hezbollah into a wider conflict.
  • Following Hezbollah’s leader Nasrallah’s speech on Saturday, there was hope that this signified Hezbollah was deterred from a wider confrontation for three reasons:
    • Hezbollah has lost the element of surprise to launch an invasion of their Radwan force. The IDF is heavily deployed in the border, and the closest civilian communities have been evacuated.
    • The US military posture serves as a stark warning that an escalation will be met by a US response.
    • They see the pictures from Gaza, and hear Defence Minister Gallant’s warning to Beirut.
  • However, others see Sunday’s attacks as evidence of Hezbollah’s objective to ratchet up the pressure on Israel, occupy their forces, threaten Israeli civilians, all whilst keeping the conflict below the threshold of all-out war.
  • Meanwhile, there is ongoing speculation over a potential prisoner exchange. The latest formulation suggests 80 hostages; children, women and sick elderly would be released over a three to five day ceasefire which would allow increased aid to enter the Strip, including fuel. Israel would also release women and minors held in Israeli prisons.

Looking ahead: Only once the hospitals have been evacuated can the IDF fully target the terror infrastructure underneath.

  • There is speculation that Israel is keen for Tony Blair to represent the international community and take the role of humanitarian coordinator for the Gaza Strip.,
  • The Israeli government understands the need to restore the sense of security to residents of both the north and the south before they are able to return home.

November 12, 2023

IDF Spox: “We won’t let the world forget that Hamas is holding kidnapped babies.”

  • There is media speculation that the possible contours of the deal would involve the release of 50-100 children, women and elderly. Their release would be staggered, through a three to five day ceasefire which would allow increased aid to enter the Strip, possibly also fuel. In addition Israel would release women held in Israeli prisons.
  • It is estimated that most of the hostages are held in the south part of the strip, at least initially, as the largest proportion were taken from Re’im and Nir Oz.
  • Some analysts assess with IDF advancements, Hamas is facing more pressure to do a deal, whilst their leaders are still alive to do so. An exchange for a ceasefire will allow Hamas to venture above ground and assess the damage.
  • On Saturday night thousands of people attended a rally in support of the hostages’ families outside the Tel Aviv Museum Square, which has been informally renamed “Hostages Square.”

Arab Islamic summit: The leaders of 20 states gathered for an emergency summit in Saudi  Arabia, where they all condemned the Israeli aggression in Gaza. They all called accused Israel of war crimes and called for the lifting of the siege.

  • Mohamad bin Salman, the Saudi Crown Prince called for an end to the fighting and for the release of the hostages.
  • Abbas, the Chairman of the Palestinian Authority (PA) called for elections in Gaza, the West Bank and Jerusalem.
  • Turkish President Erdogan, called for an investigation into Israeli nuclear bombs and for an evacuation of the wounded to Egypt.
  • The Egyptian president Sisi called for the establishment of a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders, but rejected opening a humanitarian crossing into Egypt.
  • However, on more substantive issues the countries were divided. Only 11 states agreed to:
    • prevent the US using their military bases in Arab countries to supply Israel with weapons and ammunition.
    • freezing Arab diplomatic, economic, security and military relations with Israel.
    • threaten to use oil and an Arab boycott to pressure to stop the aggression.
    • prevent Israeli civil aviation from flying in Arab airspace.
    • send a joint delegation to lobby Washington, Moscow and London.
  • Another nine did not support those five actions, they were: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, Mauritania, Djibouti, Egypt and Jordan.

Gaza Strip: The IDF continues to expand its operation deep inside Gaza City. IDF Spokesperson Hagari said that Hamas has “lost its grip” on the heart of Gaza City.

  • He added that as opposed to Hamas lies, the IDF had not attacked or laid siege to Shifa Hospital.
    In televised remarks Col. Moshe Tetro, the head of the Gaza CLA (Coordination and Liaison Administration) was personally in contact with the hospital director and reaffirmed that the eastern side of the hospital was open for safe passage for those that want to leave.
  • Hagari later added that the IDF would provide all necessary assistance to relocate the patients in the paediatric ward to safer hospitals.
  • Israel continues to take pauses in the fighting to allow Gazan civilians to leave combat zones. On Saturday, tens of thousands left the Jabaliya area to move south. In the last few days around 150,000 – 200,000 have left.
  • Over the weekend, the IDF took control of another 11 Hamas military posts.
  • However, five more soldiers were killed, taking the total to 43 since the beginning of the ground operation two weeks ago.
  • On Friday night the IDF estimated the elimination of about 150 terrorists in Hamas strongholds.
  • In one strike, the IDF confirmed they killed the terrorist who held hostage approximately 1000 Gazan residents at the Rantisi Hospital.
  • During operations in the Beit Hanoun area, the IDF revealed they “destroyed weapons, ammunition and explosive devices in a kindergarten…”, adding they “exposed and destroyed dozens of tunnel openings and secured military and civilian structures where large quantities of weapons, maps and intelligence files of the Hamas terrorist organisation were stored.”
  • Despite the advances Hamas are still launching rockets into Israel.

North: Hezbollah forces continued to attack along the border.

  • For the first time, the IDF struck a Hezbollah target 40km deep into Lebanon. According to Lebanese media,  an Israeli drone attacked a pick-up truck in the Al Baraq area of Zahrani.
  • Over the weekend, Hezbollah fired a new ‘Barkan’ rocket with a particularly heavy payload of up to 500kg.
  • Three IDF soldiers were badly injured by an advanced Hezbollah UAV.
  • Three more UAVs were identified crossing into Israeli territory in northern Israel and intercepted.
  • Furthermore, two mortar shell launches and anti-tank missiles were identified from Lebanon toward IDF posts in northern Israel. IDF artillery struck the source of the launches alongside a Hezbollah terror infrastructure.
  • On Saturday afternoon Hezbollah leader Nasrallah once again gave a televised address from his bunker.
    • He encouraged more anti-Israel protests in the west as a lever to pressurise their governments.
    • He praised those forces supporting Hamas, specifically in the West Bank and Yemen.
    • He expressed ‘regret’ that Arab countries (Saudi Arabia) had intercepted missiles and drones fired by the Houthis in Yemen.
  • Overall the IDF is satisfied with its effectiveness in spotting Hezbollah cells and successfully striking them within minutes. Nasrallah also related to this, admitting every cell that fires rockets is effectively a suicide mission. Nasrallah said this in an effort to defend his commitment to the fight.
  • Hezbollah has confirmed over 70 of their fighters have been killed.
  • On Saturday night the IDF struck targets in in response to rockets fired at the Golan Heights earlier in the day.

Context: The IDF understands it is coming under increasing pressure to agree to a temporary cessation of fighting, but will not do so without the release of a significant chunk of the hostages.

  • According to the IDF, “Since the beginning of the war, the IDF has struck over 15,000 terror targets in the Gaza Strip and located 6000 weapons, including anti-tank missile launchers, anti-aircraft missiles, rockets and mortars, explosives, ammunition, and more.”
  • The IDF emphasises the impressive coordination between aerial, naval, and ground forces. Since the beginning of ground operations in Gaza, the Air Force, with the assistance and direction of the ground forces, has “struck approximately 5,000 targets in the Gaza Strip to eliminate threats in real time. Approximately 3,300 strikes were carried out by fighter jets, 860 strikes were carried out by combat helicopters and over 570 strikes were carried out by UAVs.”
  • However, analysts note that bombs dropped and terrorists killed are not the measure of success, as all the while Hamas retains it chain of command and terror infrastructure.
  • According to estimates, around 10 per cent of the Israeli Air Force is committed to Gaza, leaving the bulk of their capacity ready to face threats in other sectors.
  • Regarding the north, there are three reasons to suggest Hezbollah are deterred from a wider confrontation:
    • Hezbollah has lost the element of surprise to launch an invasion of their Radwan force. The IDF is heavily deployed in the border, and the closest civilian communities have been evacuated.
    • The US military posture serves as a stark warning, that an escalation will be met by a US response.
    • They see the pictures from Gaza, and hear Defence Minister Gallant’s warning to Beirut.
  • On Saturday night the three leaders prosecuting the war, Netanyahu, Gallant and Gantz, held another joint press conference. Prime Minister Netanyahu said, in the future Israel would retain overriding security control over the Gaza Strip and appeared to rule out handing over control to the PA. Netanyahu said, “Overall security control, with the ability to go in whenever we want in order to kill terrorists who could reappear. There will be no Hamas. There will be no civilian authority that educates their children to hate Israel, to kill Israelis, to destroy the State of Israel. There can’t be an authority there that pays the families of murderers. There needs to be something else there.”
  • Netanyahu’s position appears to be at odds with the US vision and could cause tension in the future.  Some have speculated that this is part of Netanyahu’s future positioning at the next election.  Though others note that due to his current unpopularity he may not be the one to decide on the day after.

Looking ahead: In the short term, the IDF will increase pressure on hospitals to evacuate the patients in order to target Hamas infrastructure underneath.

  • The IDF will also be advancing to control Hamas government sites and destroy the tunnels.
  • Longer term objectives could include expanding the military operation to the southern part of the Strip and kill the Hamas senior leaders.
  • Israel will seek to place a new regime in Gaza that is not connected to Iran.

November 10, 2023

Arrow 3 achieves first success

What happened: Israel’s most advanced missile interception system, the long-range “Arrow 3”, marked its first successful interception last night, of a surface-to-surface missile over the Red Sea launched toward Eilat.

  • The interception came as Iran’s Yemeni proxy the Houthis fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at the Eilat area of southern Israel.
  • In the Gaza Strip, as Israel deepens its control of Gaza City and the surrounding areas, the IDF announced it has killed two senior members of Hamas’s elite Nukhba force in operations executed following information from the Shin Bet.
  • Ahmed Musa, a Nukhba company commander, and Amr Alhandi, a Nukhba platoon commander, were both killed while hiding in the city of Jabaliya, just north of Gaza City.
  • According to the IDF, Musa led the October 7th attack on the Zikim military bases and the nearby kibbutz. Also, “In recent days Ahmed Musa led offensive activity against IDF forces in the west Jabaliya area.”
  • Elsewhere, the IDF also confirmed the killing of Muhammed Kahlout, head of the sniper array in Hamas’s northern Gaza brigade.
  • In a separate mission, troops from the IDF’s 252nd Division killed 19 Hamas operatives who were planning to attack soldiers.
  • An Israeli soldier was killed in fighting in the northern Gaza Strip yesterday.
  • In an interview with US Fox News, Prime Minister Netanyahu affirmed that Israel is seeking neither to displace Gazans nor to rule the Strip once Hamas is defeated.
  • “We don’t seek to conquer Gaza. We don’t seek to occupy Gaza. And we don’t seek to govern Gaza,” he said. “What we have to see is Gaza demilitarised, deradicalised and rebuilt. All of that can be achieved.”
  • On Israel’s much-repeated calls for Gazans to move south, Netanyahu said “we don’t seek to displace anyone… What we’re trying to do is get the Gazans in the northern part of the Gaza Strip where the fighting has taken place to move one to four miles south where we have established a safe zone.”
  • “We want to see field hospitals,” Netanyahu added. “We’re encouraging and enabling humanitarian help to go there. That’s how we’re fighting this war.”
  • CIA Director William Burns, Mossad Director David Barnea and Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani met yesterday in Doha to discuss the potential release of hostages, with Israeli officials saying after that “we are not close to finalising a deal, but the deal has not collapsed, and we are making slow progress. We need patience. There is no deal in the works for the release of all the hostages.”
  • With speculation ongoing regarding a potential pause in the fighting designed to secure the release of some of the hostages held by Hamas and other terrorist organisations in Gaza, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) yesterday announced that it would consider releasing two of its hostages.
  • In parallel, PIJ released a video showing two of its hostages, 77-year-old Hannah Katzir and 13-year-old Yagil Yaakov from Kibbutz Nahal Oz. Both suffer from medical conditions.
  • In the north, the IDF conducted strikes in in response to yesterday’s drone attack on a school in the southern Israeli city of Eilat.
  • The IDF did not publicly identify which -based group was responsible for the drone attack, but said that “the Syrian regime is fully responsible for all terror activity that is carried out from Syrian territory. The IDF will respond severely to any attempt to harm the territory of the State of Israel.”
  • Clashes between the IDF and Hezbollah on the northern border continued yesterday. Last night Hezbollah fired an anti-tank missile at the western Galilee, to which the IDF responded with artillery fire at the source of the attack. Earlier, the IAF hit terrorist infrastructure and Hezbollah targets in response to rocket fire.
  • In the West Bank, 14 Palestinians were killed and more than 20 injured in clashes with the IDF in the Jenin refugee camp yesterday.
  • The IDF carried out a drone strike against a group of armed Palestinians who were shooting at Israeli forces in the morning.
  • In searches of the camp, the IDF discovered weapons and explosives.
  • Palestinian media also reported four Palestinians killed in clashes with the IDF in the West Bank town of Beit Fajjar, near Bethlehem, in Dura, near Hebron, in Nablus, and near Ramallah.

Context: The Arrow 3 system complements its Arrow 2 predecessor, which has also succeeded in downing a Houthi ballistic missile from Yemen and a long-range rocket from Gaza in recent weeks.

  • The IDF has made significant progress establishing itself deep into Gaza City, but the military commanders are still asking for more time to reach their objective of destroying Hamas’s military infrastructure.
  • The IDF has taken control of numerous Hamas strongholds and has destroyed 150 tunnel shafts, but hundred more could still remain.
  • The IDF has encircled the most condensed Hamas military zone which will require extreme caution.
  • Hamas fighters have for the most part remained underground, in general only coming to the surface to fire anti-tank missiles.
  • However, they remain a cohesive fighting unit and Israel has not yet managed to disrupt and destroy Hamas’s command structure.
  • Israel is conscious that along with the military’s desire to complete their objectives, diplomatic pressure continues to push for a cessation of fighting.
  • So far, the IDF has exposed Hamas operating out of mosques, schools and hospitals.
  • With the understanding that the centre of Hamas operations are underneath Shifa hospital, the IDF is making provisions to evacuate and remove patients to alternative medical facilities, either in the south, over the border into Egypt, or even off shore.
  • So far 38 Israeli soldiers have been killed since the ground incursion began, with Hamas affiliated deaths estimated to be 100 times larger, at over 3,000.
  • Israel has implemented localised pauses to allow streams of Palestinian civilians continue to head south.
  • Yesterday, some 50,000 northern Gazans headed south through humanitarian corridors set up by Israel.
  • At some point the IDF will also need to turn their attention to the military infrastructure in the southern Gaza Strip. This will be further complicated due to the influx in the civilians from the north.
  • Despite ongoing talks rumoured to include the idea of releasing hostages in return for a temporary ceasefire, Israel insists that no pause in the fighting is in the offing.
  • It is thought that of the hostages, Hamas is holding 180, PIJ 40, and criminal clans in southern Gaza 20.
  • Since October 7th, the IDF has arrested 1,430 terror suspects in the West Bank, including more than 900 affiliated with Hamas.
  • The Palestinian Authority’s health ministry has said that in that time more than 176 West Bank Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces, and in some cases by settlers. President Biden has publicly indicated his concern over the rise in settler violence since October 7th.

Looking ahead: The UN Security council will meet today. No resolution is expected, with the US pledging to veto any calls for a ceasefire.

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