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Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Key background
  • Hamas is an Islamist Palestinian nationalist movement which currently governs the Gaza Strip. It is proscribed by the UK and in the majority of western countries.
  • Its primary state backers are Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. It is also active in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon.
  • Since seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has continuously launched attacks against Israel and weaponised civilian infrastructure by embedding itself into schools, mosques, and hospitals.
  • Hamas’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel killed 1200, and over 250 hostages were subsequently taken to the Gaza Strip.

Updated November 27, 2023

Third group of hostages released as potential ceasefire extension discussed

What happened: A third group of hostages, comprising 14 Israelis and three Thai nationals were freed from Hamas captivity in the Gaza Strip yesterday evening.

  • The Israelis included nine children, two mothers, two more women, and one man, Roni Krivoi, with Russian-Israeli citizenship. Ten of those freed were from Kfar Aza.
  • One of the Israelis, 84-year-old Elma Avraham, is unconscious and on a respirator with her condition termed “unstable”. Avraham was evacuated directly from Gaza to Soroka by helicopter.
  • Another Israeli released is Avigail Idan, the 4-year-old American-Israeli citizen from Kibbutz Kfar Aza whose parents were murdered on October 7th.
  • Israel released 39 convicted Palestinian women and minors from prison and allowed 200 trucks to transport into the Gaza Strip.
  • Discussions continue over the possibility of extending the agreement to free more Israeli hostages. After speaking with US President Biden, PM Netanyahu said “there is a plan that says it is possible to free, every extra day, another ten hostages. That is welcome. In the same breath, I also told the president, we will return, with our full might, to achieve our objectives: Hamas’s annihilation, and ensure that Gaza not revert to being what it was, and of course, to free all of our hostages.”
  • US President Biden expressed his support for extending the pause.  “That’s my goal, that’s our goal,” he said, “to keep this pause going beyond tomorrow so that we can continue to see more hostages come out and surge more humanitarian relief to those in need in Gaza.”
  • Hamas confirmed the deaths of five senior commanders who were targeted by Israel during the fighting in Gaza. These include: Ahmed Ghandour, the commander of its northern Gaza brigade; Ayman Siam, the head of Hamas’s rocket firing array; and Wael Rajab and Raafat Salman. Ghandour had previously survived several assassination attempts and was designated as an international terrorist by the US State Department in 2017 and also involved in the abduction of Gilad Shalit in 2006.
  • An American warship freed the tanker owned by Eyal Ofer that was boarded by five Houthi terrorists off the coast of Yemen. Fox News reported that the tanker crew locked themselves in a safe room and the terrorists were unable to break into it. American troops seized control of the tanker and arrested the terrorists.
  • The US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced early on Monday that two ballistic missiles had been launched from areas in Yemen controlled by Houthi rebels towards an American destroyer in the Gulf of Aden.
  • Syrian media report Israeli airstrikes against Damascus International Airport and other targets near the capital. The pro-government Sham FM radio says the runway at the airport was hit, among other targets.

Context: As part of the agreement with Hamas, Israel agreed to release 150 Palestinian women and minors who were sentenced to prison terms, and allow hundreds of trucks to transport and fuel into the Gaza Strip. In exchange Hamas undertook to release 30 children and 20 women.

  • Following the release of this third group of hostages, there are believed to be approximately 180 hostages held by Hamas, including 18 children (eight girls and 10 boys) and 43 women.
  • Intensive talks have taken place in an effort to extend the deal by another few days, facilitated by the US, Egypt, and Qatar, attended by Mossad Director David Barnea, Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar and Maj. Gen. (res.) Nitzan Alon, who is tasked with overseeing Israel’s hostage release efforts.
  • The original agreement stipulated that it could be extended under the following terms: for every ten Israeli hostages released by Hamas, Israel would pause its fighting for an additional 24 hours; an additional three Palestinian prisoners would be released for every one freed Israeli hostage, and will continue to be allowed to flow into Gaza.
  • The Israeli cabinet approved in advance potentially releasing 300 Palestinian security prisoners so as to facilitate the smooth extension of the current arrangement, effectively allowing for a five-day extension of the pause in fighting without having to convene the cabinet to approve an additional prisoner release.
  • While Israel is discussing extending the agreement, officials have emphasised that the war against Hamas will continue once the pause is over.
  • On Saturday, Defence Minister Gallant, visiting troops in Gaza, vowed that Israel would not leave Gaza until all the captives are returned and confirmed additional attack plans in the days following the ceasefire.
  • IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said the current pause was being used to study adding that the IDF would “revert immediately upon the end of the ceasefire to attacking Gaza, to manoeuvring in Gaza. We’ll do that both in order to dismantle Hamas and to create very great pressure to bring home as quickly as possible as many hostages as possible.”
  • With the IDF having made substantial gains in northern Gaza, before the truce began on Friday, it had surrounded Jabalya, a remaining northern Hamas stronghold, but hadn’t yet entered it. They are widely expected to do so as soon as the truce ends. The army is determined to eventually begin operations in southern Gaza as well.
  • Israel’s assessment is that senior Hamas officials still control the group’s military operations and haven’t lost contact with their troops in the field.

Looking ahead: A fourth and final (unless the agreement is extended) group of hostages are set to be released today.

  • The Prime Minister’s Office says “discussions” are ongoing regarding a list of Gaza hostages to be released today that was received overnight and is being “evaluated.”
  • Israeli security officials are optimistic about the possibility that the pause in fighting might be extended by a number of days so as to facilitate the release of additional hostages being held by Hamas, potentially including older Israeli men.
  • Israel is prioritising freeing as many hostages as possible in the current round, on the working assumption that it will be hard to stop the war again within a short amount of time.

November 26, 2023

Second batch of hostages released

Hostages deal: After several tense hours, the second batch of hostages were eventually released late Saturday night.

  • 13 Israeli citizens and four Thai nationals were released.
  • Of the Israelis, eight were children. 12 of the hostages were from Kibbutz Be’eri and one was kidnapped from the Nova music festival.
  • On Friday afternoon, the first batch of 13 Israelis (12 of them from Kibbutz Nir Oz) were released along with 11 foreigners, ten Thai citizens that worked in the Kibbutzim and one hostage from the Philippines who was a carer for an elderly man on Kibbutz Nir Oz, killed by Hamas terrorists on October 7.
  • Last night, the hostages were handed over to the Red Cross who took them into Egypt and then handed them over to Israeli officials. They were then taken to the Kerem Shalom crossing into Israel, and onto to an Air Force base to undergo a short medical checkup. They were then flown to other medical facilities in the centre of country and reunited with their families.
  • In parallel, Israel has released two batches of Palestinian prisoners, 39 each day. All the released prisoners were female or juvenile offenders, imprisoned on terror offences, and charges of attempted murder.

West Bank: Reports from the West Bank say that five Palestinians have been killed in a strike by an IDF unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) in Jenin. A sixth Palestinian was killed in the Nablus area.

  • In the ongoing operations in Jenin, troops arrested Osama Bani Fadl, the terrorist who murdered Shai Nigaker and his son Aviad Nir in a shooting attack in Huwara three months ago.
  • A senior Israeli security official said, “we are applying intense pressure with a series of operations not seen in the region for years. The armed terror group in the Jenin refugee camp will disband and be neutralised.”
  • Elsewhere in the West Bank, Palestinian militants affiliated with Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade executed two men accused of collaborating with Israel in the city of Tulkarem on Friday night. The men were identified as Hamza Mubarak, 31, and Azam Juabra, 29.
  • Crowds stomped on their bodies and the militants attempted to hang them from an electrical tower before ultimately throwing them over the walls of a UN school.

Threat from Yemen: There were reports early evening yesterday of aerial explosions and air defence activity over Eilat, in southern Israel.

  • The IDF confirmed that two “suspicious aerial targets” were intercepted over the Red Sea, and that “the possibility that this is a false identification is being investigated.”
  • Eilat has come under attempted rocket fire from the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and from on multiple occasions since October 7th.

Context: The delay in the release of the second batch has largely been interpreted as a Hamas power play, and proof that they are still in control in Gaza.

  • That Hamas would jeopardise the pause in the fighting by failing to bide by the terms of the hostage release is being interpreted by some as an indication that its state of desperation has been exaggerated.
  • During the afternoon, Hamas had claimed that Israel had not allowed the agreed amount of aid trucks to enter into Gaza, this claim was rejected by the Egyptians and the Red Cross that monitored their entry.
  • Hamas also claimed that a proportion of the trucks must also reach the northern part of the Strip. International mediators acknowledged that this happened, though it should be noted that Israel is not present in the southern half, so not in control of truck movements there.
  • Hamas also disputed the priority order of the prisoners released, claiming they had expected the longest serving prisoners to be released first.
  • Hamas flags were prominently seen in celebrations of the release of the Palestinian prisoners, despite Hamas being outlawed in the West Bank as opponents of the ruling Palestinian Authority.
  • On the Israeli side, one of the children was released, but without her mother. This is a breach of the agreement, that Israel had insisted mothers and their children would not be separated.
  • There remains concern that Hamas will try further attempts to manipulate the agreements.
  • One of the released hostages, 9-year-old Emily Hand, has dual Israeli-Irish citizenship. Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar has been widely criticised in Israel for his comment that “an innocent child who was lost has now been found and returned, and we breathe a massive sigh of relief.”
  • Although Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that the deal would also include Red Cross representatives visiting all those that remain in captivity, this has not yet happened. Israeli commentators are speculating whether this had been agreed by Hamas or is just wishful thinking on the Israeli side.
  • If the Red Cross were to be given access, this would potentially provide valuable intel on the hostages’ condition and locations.

Looking ahead: The third batch of released hostages are expected to be released this afternoon.

  • Negotiators are still working to see if more hostages can be released beyond the forth batch and if the pause in fighting can be extended for another day or two.
  • Amid concerns that it will be difficult to restart fighting after a pause which is set to last a minimum of four days but which could last much longer if more hostages are released, Israel insists it will resume its operation.
  • IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said “the pause we have now—we’re using it to study, we’re using it to better prepare our capabilities and also to rest a bit. And we’ll revert immediately upon the end of the ceasefire to attacking Gaza, to manoeuvring in Gaza. We’ll do that both in order to dismantle Hamas and to create very great pressure to bring home as quickly as possible as many hostages as possible.”

November 24, 2023

Temporary ceasefire begins, as Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron shows solidarity     

What’s happened: The temporary ceasefire came into effect at 0500 UK time this morning.

  • Fifteen minutes in, a single rocket was fired out of Gaza, which was intercepted by the Iron Dome missile defence. Israel has not responded and since then there has been quiet.
  • Foreign Secretary Lord David Cameron was in Israel yesterday. In his meeting with President Herzog, Cameron explained his motivation behind the visit, “I wanted to come, and I wanted to go to the south of the country to see for myself some of the horrific acts that were carried out by Hamas, by these terrorists when they came into your country. I went to Kibbutz Be’eri and I won’t forget what I saw. It makes a very deep impression, and it’s important that people know that.”
  • Cameron added, “you have our support. We stand with the people of Israel at this difficult time.”
  • He continued, “of course, all hostages must come out because hostage taking is immoral, and wrong and a terrorist tactic. And some of them are British hostages – so we have a strong interest with you. But I think this humanitarian pause is also an opportunity to get aid into Gaza. And we want to help you with that by increasing the aid we send by helping with the logistics, by helping in any way that we can. I think it is vitally important that we demonstrate to the Palestinian people, to the world, that we want to help. Those people need food, they need water, they need medicine. They need fuel, because it’s essential to be able to get the aid around Gaza to work desalination plants, to make sure that hospitals can run. So I think there’s a real opportunity to use this pause to help deliver that, and I hope that can go ahead.”
  • Herzog also related to the humanitarian situation in Gaza, noting, “we are very much aware… we are taking major steps in order to alleviate, to increase the support and the assistance that goes to the citizens of Gaza. Rest assured that we are committed to whatever is necessary, according to the basic rules of international humanitarian law.”
  • Cameron also met Prime Minister Netanyahu who told him that after the ceasefire, Israel would continue to “eradicate Hamas,” explaining, “because Hamas has already promised that they will do this again and again and again. They’re a genocidal terrorist cult. There’s no hope for peace between Israel and the Palestinians, between Israel and the Arab states, if we don’t eradicate this murderous movement that threatens the future of all of us.”
  • Netanyahu continued “it’s a larger battle of civilisation against barbarism… Israel sustained proportionately twenty 9/11s. It’s as though 50,000 Americans were slaughtered in a single day and 10,000 were held hostage, including a nine-month-old baby. He can’t walk, he can’t talk, he’s a hostage. What kind of people do this? The answer is these are not people; these are monsters. These monsters have to go. They’ll go. We’ll pursue the battle until that goal is achieved, and we give a different future for Gaza and for us.”
  • Earlier in the day, whilst accompanying Cameron in Kibbutz Be’eri, Foreign Minister Eli Cohen asked him, as a member of the UN Security Council, “to act on the implementation of Resolution 1701 in order to prevent the expansion of the war to the northern region.”
  • This morning, as part of the humanitarian pause, 200 trucks are entering Gaza, including four diesel tanks (130,000 litres of fuel) and four with cooking gas.

Context: The next few hours will be fraught as Israel waits to see if Hamas will honour its commitment to release the first batch of 13 hostages, children and mothers, at 1400 UK time.

  • Yesterday, the IDF ground operation continued in northern Gaza. Fighting focused on the remaining pockets of Hamas military forces in Jabalya, Nusseirat and Beit Lahiya.
  • In Jabalya, troops exposed more examples of terror infrastructure embedded within civilian population, including large quantities of weapons found under children’s beds and six more tunnel shafts, including one inside a Mosque.
  • Shortly before the ceasefire came into effect the IDF destroyed the section of tunnel found underneath Shifa hospital.
  • Israel will try to extract as many hostages as possible through the current mechanism, but sees it as essential to then return to fighting so as to complete the mission and remove Hamas from power. It will be impossible to do this without an operation in southern Gaza.
  • Last night, the Israeli Air Force carried out a significant airstrike in southern Gaza, killing the commander of Hamas’s naval force in Khan Yunis, Amir Abu Jalala, along with another fighter from the naval force. Jalala was responsible for numerous infiltration attempts via the sea.
  • The IDF also targeted Hamas weapons warehouses, tunnels, training areas and lookout positions.
  • In the north, yesterday saw particularly heavy fire from Hezbollah, with over 50 rockets fired into northern Israel.
  • The IDF retaliated by attacking numerous Hezbollah targets, including two cells responsible for the rocket fire.
  • Lebanese sources have claimed that Hezbollah will also abide by the ceasefire, and so far this morning the north has remained quiet. However, Israel has not committed to a cessation in the north.

Looking ahead: At 1400 UK time today, the first 13 hostages are expected to be handed over to the IDF via the Red Cross.

  • They will be taken to an isolated medical compound, to be reunited with their family and medically assessed.
  • If the deal goes to plan, 50 hostages are due to be released over the next four days, whilst Israel will release 150 female and teenage Palestinian prisoners.
  • Israel expects every day to receive a list of those to be released the following day.
  • The talks via US and Qatari mediation are expected to continue, with the aim of extending the pause in fighting for an extra day for each additional 10 hostages released

November 23, 2023

Hostage release delayed, heavy rocket fire from the north

Hostages: The anticipated ceasefire to allow for the release of Israeli hostages has been delayed until tomorrow morning at the earliest.

  • National Security Council Director Tzahi Hanegbi announced the holdup shortly after midnight last night, with Israeli officials briefing that “the delay isn’t substantive, but technical… We expect that the deal will be implemented and that this is a last-minute delay.”
  • Mossad Director David Barnea and Maj. Gen. (res.) Nitzan Alon, in Qatar to finalise the agreement, discovered “holes” in a few of the clauses.
  • According to Israeli sources, although a list of names has been submitted, the delay is because Hamas has not confirmed their health status. In addition, according to the terms of agreement, Hamas is expected to release the names of each batch to be freed the night before.
  • Qatari officials said that talks were “progressing positively” and to expect an announcement on timings in the next hours.
  • Diego Engelbert, whose sister Karina, brother-in-law Ronen and their daughters Mika and Yuval are hostages in Gaza said of the delay: “These ups and downs are killing us. We were holding onto a ray of hope and once again it’s gone — this is part of the psychological terror we go through on a daily basis.”

Palestinian Prisoners: In return for 50 hostages Israel has agreed to release 150 Palestinian prisoners.

  • According to the provisions of the agreement. Hamas can extend the pause in fighting by a an extra day for every additional 10 hostages released, beyond the initial 50. In that scenario, Israeli will in turn release an additional 30 prisoners.
  • Therefore Israel has released a list of 300 prisoners eligible for the release, that meet the agreed criteria, male prisoners under the age of 18 and female prisoners, all of whom have not committed murder. Although many faced charges of attempted murder.
  • Many of the prisoner committed stabbing attacks, or attempted stabbings. Others carried out car-ramming attacks or helped prepare explosive devises. One 15 year old boy shot and injured two Israelis with an improvised submachine in East Jerusalem.
  • The youngest on the list includes five 14 years old boys, the oldest is a 59-year-old woman.
  • The prisoners are mostly from the West Bank with a few who infiltrated from Gaza and 74 from East Jerusalem.
  • The list includes multi affiliated prisoners, including from Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Fatah, and other smaller terror organisations. Some of them have no affiliation.
  • Many of the youths are in prison under administrative detention as their trial has not yet taken place, with the majority of the list male teenagers arrested in the past two years.

Gaza Strip: The IDF this morning announced it had struck some 300 sites over the last day, including command centres, tunnels, weapons depots, weapon manufacturing sites and anti-tank missile launch positions.

  • IDF continue to make advances in Jabaliya, while combat engineers found and destroyed a Hamas tunnel shaft in Beit Hanoun.
  • The IDF yesterday announced the deaths of two soldiers in northern Gaza, taking the death toll since the beginning of ground operations to 70.
  • Meanwhile, the IDF yesterday confirmed it had destroyed some 400 terror tunnel shafts in the Strip since the start of the ground incursion.
  • This morning, sirens warned of incoming rocket fire in both Kerem Shalom, on the Israel-Gaza border, and in Ashkelon in southern Israel. Despite advances, Hamas are still able to launch rockets, now almost exclusively from the southern Gaza. Overall, the have fired over 10,000 rockets.

The north: This morning, air raid sirens sounded across the north as around 50 rockets fired from Lebanon towards northern Israel.

  • This is the most intense barrage of rockets fired from the north in the last few years.
  • Hezbollah claimed early this morning that five of its terrorists, including Abbas Raad, son of the head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc Mohammed Raad, had been killed in clashes on the northern border.
  • Lebanese sources further claimed that the five had been killed in an Israeli strike yesterday on a house in Beit Yahun, southern Lebanon.
  • Hezbollah also announced yesterday that it would respect any ceasefire agreed between Israel and Hamas, despite not being a party to the negotiations.

Context: Prime Minister Netanyahu yesterday said that he believed that the first hostage release would lead to others. “The combined military and diplomatic effort led to the ripe conditions for the return of our hostages. I believe this combination will also facilitate the release of additional hostages in the next stages,” he said.

  • Netanyahu emphasised, “the outline that has been achieved does not include the release of murderers. It does include visits by Red Cross representatives to the hostages and the delivery of medicines to them. I heard that there is someone denying this. The Red Cross says that it has not heard; then here is the explicit clause: ‘The Red Cross will be allowed to visit the remaining hostages and provide them with needed medicine.’ I expect the Red Cross to do its work.”
  • In a further example of support from the British Government, Foreign Minister Lord Cameron is visiting Israel today. He spent this morning visiting Kibbutz Be’eri and witnessing firsthand the destruction caused by Hamas on October 7th.
  • The IDF has completed its encirclement of Jabaliya, one the last remaining Hamas strongholds in the north of the Gaza Strip.
  • White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby last night told a US Jewish event that he expects the war to continue after the pause to release the hostages. “The fight is not over. The war is not over. The threat that Hamas poses is still real and still viable to the Israeli people,” he said, adding that the US would “continue to make sure that we’re giving [Israel] the tools the capabilities the weapons systems that they need to continue to go after Hamas.”
  • There is grave concern over this morning’s escalation in the north. Despite regular clashes on Israel’s northern border, until now Hezbollah has not previously escalated the conflict to the extent feared. The assessment has been that neither it, nor its Iranian patron, see it as in their interest to provoke a full-scale war at this time.
  • Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen yesterday warned the UN Security Council that Hezbollah must be disarmed if the risk of a regional war is to be avoided.“For the good of regional stability and to avoid further escalation, the next session of the UN Security Council must adopt a totally different approach in order to end the dangerous violations by Hezbollah and other terrorist groups on the border,” he wrote.
  • UN Security Council Resolution 1701 calls the disarming of non-state forces in Lebanon, but this has never been implemented.
  • Lebanese sources have suggested the temporary ceasefire also relates to  the north, but Israel officials have not confirmed this
  • The IDF said yesterday that one of its fighter jets had shot down an incoming cruise missile over the Red Sea, close to Eilat, believed to have been fired by the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.
  • Since the beginning of Israel’s operation in the Gaza Strip, the US and Saudi Arabia have shot down multiple missiles fired by the Houthis towards Eilat.

Looking ahead: If there are no more delays the temporary ceasefire could be announced today and go into effect tomorrow morning, with the first tranche of hostages to be freed later in the day.

  • For the duration of the pause, IDF soldiers are expected to remain in battle positions inside northern Gaza, ever vigilant that Hamas has broken ceasefire agreements in the past.
  • With the pause agreed and hostages released, significant , including fuel is expected to enter into Gaza from Egypt

November 22, 2023

Israeli cabinet approves limited hostage deal

Hostage deal:  On Tuesday night the cabinet approved the deal to release 50 hostages from Gaza.

  • At the end of a long meeting in which ministers received a detailed security briefing, thirty-five ministers voted in favour and only the three ministers (from Jewish Power) voted against.
  • The deal was also backed by the heads of the security establishment: the army, Shin Bet and Mossad.
  • The arrangement calls for an initial four day pause in fighting.
  • Over the four days Hamas will release 30 children, eight mothers and twelve elderly women, all alive.
  • In return Israel will release around 150 Palestinian terrorists who were not convicted of murder.
  • In addition, hundreds of trucks with , medical aid and fuel will enter the entire Gaza Strip.
  • Hamas claims that Israel would entirely stop the use of aircraft in the southern Gaza Strip for four days. In the northern Gaza Strip, aerial activity will be halted for six hours every day, between 1000 – 1600.
  • The humanitarian corridor will remain open allowing Gazans to leave the north for the south, but not to return to the north.
  • The deal will see three Palestinian minors or women serving prison sentences in Israel released for every Israeli who is freed.
  • At this point the deal only includes Israeli civilians, not soldiers or foreign nationals.
  • The names of the Palestinian terrorists who are to be released will be published later today on an official website, after which anyone who wishes to petition the High Court of Justice against their release will have 24 hours to do so.
  • The deal could be extended; for every release of ten more Israeli hostages there will be an additional day of paused hostilities.
  • The deal is expected to go into effect on Thursday morning.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed that as part of the deal International Red Cross officials would be visiting the remaining hostages.
  • By gaining access inside, the IDF are understood to be cautiously exploring the tunnel, wary that it could be booby trapped, in an effort to gather intelligence and then decommission it.
  • Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) announced the death of one of the Israeli hostages, Hannah Katzir, a 77 year old lady from Kibbutz Nir Oz. Her husband Rami was killed on October 7 when she was kidnapped. Her family confirmed that she was frail and had expressed grave concern for her survival without her regular medication.
  • Earlier in the day IDF Chief of Staff Halevi met with reserve soldiers in the Gaza Strip. He told them, “The ground operations create better conditions for the return of the hostages, and we will continue with this pressure.”
  • The IDF continued its advances on the ground in northern Gaza an air strikes on Hamas targets in the south. 

The north: Hezbollah claimed 13 attacks on Israel throughout yesterday.

  • Early yesterday evening, multiple rockets were launched towards Israel’s Western and Upper Galilee regions, causing sirens to sound in Kiryat Shmona and other communities. The IDF responded with fire to the source of the attacks.
  • Four Hamas terrorists were killed in an Israeli drone strike in Chaatiyeh, southern Lebanon yesterday. Unconfirmed social media reports suggested that one of the dead was Khalil Kharaz, deputy commander of Hamas’s Lebanon wing.
  • Earlier, Lebanese officials claimed that two journalists and a civilian were killed when the IDF struck multiple Hezbollah anti-tank missile squads in southern Lebanon.
  • This strike came in response to three anti-tank guided missiles fired from Lebanon at the Metula area of northern Israel yesterday morning. An Israeli army post on the border also received mortar fire.
  • In response to the Israeli strike, Hezbollah claimed to have fired two anti-tank missiles at the northern community of Menara.
  • Also yesterday, the IDF launched interceptor missiles at several “suspicious aerial targets” – likely drones – which entered Israel’s northern airspace.

Context: The deal came about following intense diplomatic efforts from the US in consultation with the Qataris. On the US side, direct pressure was brought to bear by President Biden, enhanced by the experienced mediation of CIA Director William Burns.

  • Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani led the interaction with Hamas officials, many of whom are based in Doha. Mossad chief Barnea represented Israel in these conversations.
  • Qatar hosts the external Hamas leadership, and conducted its discussions with them, but the negotiations also required buy-in from the Hamas leadership in Gaza.
  • This process was complemented by a second track involving the head of the Shin Bet Ronen Bar, and the head of Egyptian intelligence Abbas Kamel. This is a more familiar track: Egyptian intelligence has often previously acted as conduit between Israel and Hamas.
  • Israel’s security cabinet was thought to have been split on the wisdom of agreeing to deal involving a pause in fighting in Gaza. Defence Minister Gallant favoured pressing home Israel’s advantage, and apparently argued that the more Hamas was degraded, the better a hostage deal could be extracted from its leaders. Ministers Gantz and Eisenkot, as well as Shas leader Aryeh Deri, led the argument in favour of the deal, believing that it was the best, and possible the only, deal Israel could expect to receive.
  • The impassioned publicity campaign waged by the families, which included a march from Tel Aviv to the prime minister’s office, was also effective in persuading the political echelon to favour a deal.
  • Reflecting the debate in the Israeli media, Yediot Ahronot features two opposing opinions, Nahum Barnea arguing in favour and Yossi Yehoshua against.
  • Barnea wrote “the options were bad and the decisions were hard… This isn’t a deal. A deal is a dirty word when talking about a terrorist organisation. This is blackmail, coercion. But in the situation that has developed, Israel has no choice but to pay the price. The alternative of forsaking the hostages a second time, after they were first forsaken on October 7, would have been far worse and far more dangerous. Beyond the price it could end up costing in blood and lives, it would have left an indelible stain on the Israeli government and the IDF.”
  • Yehoshua counters that “the enemy is an irrational actor, a shockingly vicious murderer who is also familiar with Israeli society’s soft underbelly. Just like he recognised the domestic crisis as a window of opportunity for an attack, so too has he utilised the hostages to get oxygen and to prepare for what comes next. From his standpoint, the price is negligible: he doesn’t care about the people of Gaza, and he definitely doesn’t care about the Israeli women and children. Somehow, the monster who sent terrorists to butcher us will still get legitimacy thanks to 50 hostages, out of more than 200, and that legitimacy will help him secure a total ceasefire… the IDF’s offensive momentum will be stopped…”
  • In the latest sign of coordination between the Axis of Resistance, Hezbollah leader Nasrallah met with senior Hamas officials based in Lebanon.
  • Lebanese sources have suggested that the ceasefire will also include the northern border, but Israel has made no official commitment to this.
  • Meanwhile in the West Bank on Tuesday, 5 Palestinians were killed in two IDF drones strikes in Tulkarm.  Among those targeted was Rami al-Shumali, the commander of Fatah’s al-Aqsa Martyrs Battalions in the area, together with operatives from PIJ.

Humanitarian efforts: According to Coordinator of Government Activity in the Territories (COGAT), the following efforts are being made:

  • Jordan is setting up a field hospital in Khan Yunis, which is expected to be operational in a couple of days.
  • A United Arab Emirates field hospital finalised the planning process and expected to be set up in the coming days.
  • 27 Wounded children left Gaza to receive medical care in the UAE.
  • 86 cancer patients left Gaza to receive medical care in Turkey.
  • So far, 354 ill and wounded have exited the Gaza Strip for medical treatment in Egypt, the UAE and Turkey.
  • On Tuesday, 6,500 more people evacuated south. So far, over 350,000 people have evacuated from the northern Gaza Strip to its southern part.

Looking ahead: The ceasefire is expected to begin at 0600 local time tomorrow.

  • The first group of 10-12 Israeli hostages are expected to be released a few hours later.
  • The hostages will be handed over to the Red Cross and then on to the IDF where they will undergo medical examination and then be reunited with their families.
  • It is anticipated that they will all receive a security debrief with extra care taken to provide the children with appropriate paediatric care.

November 21, 2023

IDF continues advance through northern Gaza

Photo credit: IDF

Gaza Strip: The IDF struck approximately 250 Hamas targets over the last day, as it continues its advance through northern Gaza, with focus now heavily directed towards the Zaytun and Jabalia areas.

  • Soldiers from the Combat Engineering, Infantry and Armoured Corps of the 36th Division are now well established in Zaytun and have been engaged in heavy fighting with Hamas local battalion.
  • IDF troops destroyed Hamas military targets and a Palestinian Islamic Jihad weapons production post, where heavy and long-range rockets were located.
  • The soldiers also destroyed tunnel shafts, took control of Hamas command centres, confiscated intelligence material used by the organisation to learn about IDF soldiers, and struck additional buildings from which terrorists fired at IDF soldiers.
  • Commanding Officer of the 36th Division, Brigadier General Dado Bar Kalifa said: “During the last days of the fighting of the 36th Division in Zaytun, we constantly encountered an enemy hiding behind children, women and civilian infrastructure. The soldiers of the division… operated in a complex war zone in an urban area, exposed terrorists who were hiding in civilian areas and eliminated many terrorists.”
  • Ground forces also located a significant weapons stockpile in the residence of a senior Nukhba (Hamas’s elite unit) terrorist. In one raid, troops reported an anti-tank missile found hidden under a baby’s crib.
  • In Jabalia, the IDF says it has completed its encirclement of the area this morning, after striking multiple terror targets in preparation for further ground advances. Targets included three tunnel shafts in which terrorists were hiding.
  • Yesterday, the IDF helped facilitate the safe evacuation of newborn Gazan babies from the Shifa Hospital to Egypt to receive medical treatment.
  • The evacuations were carried out by UN teams, with the assistance of the IDF and at the request of Egypt and the hospital’s director. Israeli incubators were used to protect the babies in transit.
  • In parallel, following the discovery of a 55-metre long tunnel underneath Shifa Hospital, IDF combat engineers successfully breached a blast-proof door and are beginning to explore the interior.
  • Israel’s elite 504 Unit of military intelligence has also revealed the extent of its operation to encourage northern Gazans to move south to avoid the fighting during the war so far.
  • It has made 30,000 phone calls, sent over ten million text messages, over nine million voice messages, and distributed about four million leaflets from the air and land.

Hostages: Prime Minister Netanyahu and the rest of Israel’s war cabinet met with family members of some of the 240 hostages in the Kirya military headquarters in Tel Aviv last night.

  • The start of the meeting was delayed when the room booked to hold it in was found to be too small to accommodate the full list of family members, leaving dozens stuck outside.
  • Some families accused Netanyahu of giving mixed messages regarding the priority being placed on securing the hostages’ safe return.
  • “A few days ago, we met with Gantz and Eisenkot,” said one relative. “We heard from them in an unmistakable way that the overarching goal of the war is the return of the hostages.” This time, however, their sense was that “taking down Hamas and bringing the hostages [home] are … equally important. This is incredibly disappointing because … we know that taking down Hamas, we keep hearing from them [it] is going to take months or years and it’s going to take a long time.”
  • There was also a stormy Knesset meeting yesterday between hostage families and parliamentarians from the Religious Zionism faction. The families made clear their opposition to proposed legislation to institute the death penalty for terrorists as endangering the lives of the hostages.

The north: Hezbollah claimed responsibility for eight attacks on Israel yesterday, as the IDF struck a cell attempting to launch anti-tank missiles in the area of Marwahin in Lebanon yesterday afternoon.

  • IDF tanks, a fighter jet, and a helicopter also struck Hezbollah terror infrastructure in Lebanon.
  • A further 25 launches were attempted from southern Lebanon towards Israel – Israel’s aerial defences intercepted a number with the remainder falling in open areas. The IDF struck the sources of these launches, too.
  • The IDF also struck a terror cell operating in the Metula area of northern Israel.
  • Hezbollah has so far confirmed 77 of its fighters killed since the start of the war.

Context: Israel continues to prosecute the war in the northern sector of the Gaza Strip, with the objective of targeting all remaining Hamas strongholds.

  • 10 of Hamas’s 14 northern battalions are thought to have been significantly disabled, with fighting currently focussed on the remaining four.
  • There are thought to be around 300 combatants who have been arrested. It is hoped that through their questioning further vital intelligence will be gleaned about Hamas’s infrastructure in the Gaza Strip.
  • Combat engineers are carefully exploring the tunnels underneath Shifa Hospital. Intelligence suggests neither Hamas commanders nor hostages remain in the tunnel network under the hospital, and there is concern that the network might be booby-trapped. There is thus a dilemma in whether to risk the lives of soldiers in an effort to prove to the world the extent of Hamas’s use of the hospital.
  • There remains an active debate amongst the decision makers over whether to prioritise the hostage deal now – which would include a pause in fighting – or to maintain pressure on Hamas by continuing the military campaign.
  • The latest potential deal talks about a four day pause. Hamas claims that it does not yet know the location of all child hostages and needs that time to find them and to release them in a staged process. If it succeeds in finding all of the children, there is said to be scope to lengthen the pause further.
  • Two more IDF soldiers were killed in action in Gaza yesterday, bringing the total number killed in the ground incursion to 68. Gazan sources suggest that over 13,000 Palestinians have died in Gaza, with Israeli sources strongly believing that several thousand combatants have been killed.
  • Though the Israeli advance through northern Gaza has slowed the rate of rocket launches on Israel considerably, Hamas and other terrorist organisations still retain the ability to fire from the southern Strip. Tel Aviv last night came under heavy rocket barrage.
  • It is estimated that Hamas now has left only 15 percent of its pre-war rocket arsenal.
  • From the hostage families’ perspective, anything which endangers the lives of the hostages – such as, they argue, the death penalty legislation – should be off the table. Its proponents argue that it would provide further leverage against Hamas to extract further concessions on the hostages.
  • Legislation is not actually required to institute the death penalty for terrorists. Such a move would be at the discretion of the defence minister.

Looking ahead: Military officials said they expected the full takeover of Zaytun to be completed within a week.

  • Israel awaits Hamas’s final terms for a hostage deal before it can be put to the full Israeli cabinet for a vote, with Hamas official Izat al-Rashak saying “there is real progress in the negotiations. We are very close to announcing the Hudna agreement in the next few hours.”
  • The cabinet is aware of two conflicting timelines: how long it will take to complete the takeover of the northern strip and a pause in fighting included in a hostage deal.

November 20, 2023

Cautious optimism over partial hostage deal

Hostages: There is mounting speculation over an arrangement that will see the release of around 52 hostages: children, their mothers as well as possibly the sick and elderly held captive inside Gaza.

  • Negotiations, mediated by the US and Qatar, are thought to have reached an understanding that in return for the hostages, Israel will agree to a four or five day ceasefire, allow 200 trucks a day of to enter Gaza from Egypt and release between 150-250 Palestinian prisoners – women and teenagers.
  • The outstanding issues are thought to be logistical, including the sequencing of the release and Hamas’s insistence that the ceasefire includes Israel halting its aerial intelligence via monitoring drones. Hamas claim that they will spend the first day of the ceasefire finding the kidnapped children whose location they do not know, but can’t do this if they are being tracked.
  • Another demand of Hamas is to allow to also reach the northern Gaza Strip.

Shifa Hospital: The IDF continued their operation in the northern Gaza Strip, including in the Shifa Hospital compound.

  • The IDF presented more evidence that the hospital was used as terrorist infrastructure.
  • IDF troops exposed a 55-metre-long terror tunnel 10 meters deep underneath the hospital complex. The IDF noted, “A deep staircase leads to the entrance of the tunnel shaft, which consists of various defence means including a blast-proof door and a firing hole. This type of door is used by the Hamas terrorist organisation to block Israeli forces from entering the command centres and the underground assets belonging to Hamas. The tunnel shaft was uncovered in the area of the hospital underneath a shed alongside a vehicle containing numerous weapons including RPGs, explosives, and Kalashnikov rifles.”
  • The IDF also releases footage, taken from CCTV at the hospital entrance, showing Hamas terrorists forcibly transporting hostages – a Nepalese civilian and a Thai civilian, who were kidnapped from Israeli territory.
  • The IDF also found the bodies of two of the hostages in different buildings near the hospital.
  • An IDF vehicle stolen during the massacre can also be seen inside the hospital area.
  • The IDF continues to operate in other neighbourhoods to the West of Gaza City. During operations, the IDF arrested over 100 Hamas terrorists, three of whom are from the elite Nukhba unit which took part in the October 7th Massacre. The IDF have also killed a dozen more combatants, including three additional Hamas company commanders.

Iranian proxies: Attacks from Hezbollah towards northern Israel appeared to intensify again on Sunday, with 11 attacks recorded across the length of the Lebanese border.

  • Meanwhile, in the Red Sea off the coast of Yemen, the Houthis hijacked a cargo ship partly owned by an Israeli businessman.
  • Israel, according to the Israeli Prime Miniter’s office, “strongly condemns the Iranian attack against an international vessel. The ship, which is owned by a British company and is operated by a Japanese firm, was hijacked with Iran guidance by the Yemenite Houthi militia. Onboard the vessel are 25 crew members of various nationalities including Ukrainian, Bulgarian, Filipino and Mexican. No Israelis are onboard. This is another act of Iranian terrorism and constitutes a leap forward in Iran’s aggression against the citizens of the free world, with international consequences regarding the security of the global shipping lanes.”

Context: The evidence presented from Shifa appears to back up the IDF claim, “that numerous buildings in the hospital’s complex are used by Hamas as cover for terrorist infrastructure and activities. This is further evidence of the cynical manner [in which] Hamas uses the residents of the Gaza Strip as a human shield for their murderous terrorist activities.”

  • Having initially entered from the north and the centre, bisecting the Strip and surrounding Gaza City, the IDF is targeting other Hamas strongholds in the west.
  • The overall fighting remains intense. Over the weekend, several more IDF soldiers have been killed, taking the total in over three weeks of the ground campaign to 65.
  • According to military intelligence, of Hamas’s 24 Battalions, 14 are in the northern half of the Strip, 10 of which are now significantly depleted. Those that escaped are thought to have  joined the remaining four.
  • In his weekly address on Saturday night, Prime Minister Netanyahu added a third objective of the war (after destroying Hamas and returning the captives), that on the days after, “it is impossible to put in Gaza an authority that supports terror, abets terror, and pays terrorists.” Adding, “there is another condition that I set for the day after: the IDF will have complete freedom of action in the Gaza Strip against any threat. Only in this way will we guarantee the demilitarisation of Gaza.”
  • This appears to rule out the Palestinian Authority (PA) assuming control, which puts the Israeli government at odds with the US. However Netanyahu also believes, “we will reach an agreement with the US also about this.”
  • On Sunday the PA appeared to compound their problematic stance, releasing a statement suggesting that it was Israeli helicopters that bombed and killed Israeli civilians on October 7 during the Supernova music festival. They later deleted the statement.
  • Netanyahu responded harshly, calling the statement “utterly preposterous.” He added, “it isn’t enough that for 44 days Abu Mazen has refused to condemn the terrible massacre, now his men are denying that massacre and are turning the tables on Israel. Abu Mazen the Holocaust-denier is now denying the Hamas-ISIS massacre.
  • In a more supportive stance, Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad of Bahrain condemned Hamas. He described the October 7th massacre of Israelis as “barbaric” and demanded the release of the Israeli hostages.
  • Regarding the potential hostage deal, the inner war cabinet appears divided. Ministers Gantz and Eisenkot have argued that this opportunity won’t return and that this is the right time to secure the release of the women and children. Defence Minister Gallant favours continuing the fighting in order to defeat Hamas. There is concern that the ceasefire will give Hamas valuable days to reorganise and resupply.

Looking ahead: Tonight the War Cabinet will meet with representatives of the families of the hostages.

  • Any deal will need to be approved by the full cabinet.

November 17, 2023

Body of hostage found near Shifa Hospital

What happened: The IDF yesterday recovered the body of Yehudit Weiss, a 65-year-old mother of five kidnapped by Hamas from Kibbutz Be’eri on October 7th.

  • Weiss’s body was found in a building near Gaza City’s Shifa Hospital, along with military equipment, including assault rifles and RPGs.
  • “To our sorrow, Yehudit was murdered by the terrorists in the Gaza Strip. And we didn’t get to her in time,” IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said.
  • Weiss’s daughter Zemer said, “it’s important for us to say that we fought, we battled in every possible way to bring mom, grandma Yehudit home. For us, it is too late, but it is important for us to support all the families of the hostages, and to tell the world, bring them home now, so that for them it is not too late, like it was for us.”
  • The IDF also announced the recovery of the body of 19-year-old Cpl. Noa Marciano, another hostage, whose death it announced earlier this week.
  • Troops discovered Marciano’s body in another building near Shifa hospital, with Prime Minister Netanyahu last night telling CBS that Israel has solid information that some of the hostages were held in the hospital.
  • Asked about the prospects of a deal being reached to free some of the hostages, Netanyahu said “we are closer than before we began the ground action. The ground action has put pressure on Hamas to achieve a ceasefire. We’ll have a temporary ceasefire if we can get our hostages.”
  • The IDF continued its attacks in Gaza last night, including air strikes and ground battles.
  • Troops also raided a Palestinian Islamic Jihad outpost in northern Gaza, locating Iran-made Badr-3 rockets, drones, and other weapons.
  • In raids on Hamas targets, troops founds assault rifles, explosive devices, RPGs, anti-tank missile launchers, and other equipment.
  • In the north, the IAF attacked Hezbollah targets last night, and Hezbollah fired several anti-tank missiles at IDF posts near Biranit and Rosh Hanikra.
  • also claimed that Israel fired missiles at targets in the area of Damascus last night.
  • In the West Bank, the IDF says it killed five Palestinian gunmen during an overnight counter-terror operation in Jenin.
  • Seven wanted suspects were arrested in the raid, and weapons captured.
  • US Secretary of State Blinken spoke with Minister Gantz yesterday. They discussed the hostages and increasing for the Gaza Strip. Blinken also expressed US concern over settler violence in the West Bank.

Context: Weiss’s husband Shmulik was murdered by Hamas in its rampage through Be’eri, his body discovered in the family safe room a week and a half later.

  • A member of the Combat Intelligence Collection Corps 414th unit, Marciano was serving at the Nahal Oz IDF base when it was attacked by Hamas.
  • On Monday, Hamas had released a video of Marciano four days after having been kidnapped, identifying herself and reciting the names of her parents and her hometown. The video then showed her dead body.
  • Hostage negotiations are facilitated by a series of talks via the US, Egypt and Qatar and then onto Hamas leaders. The process is complicated by limited contact with Hamas leaders inside Gaza.
  • The contours of the deal being discussed are thought to comprise:
    • Hamas will release 50 hostages, comprising children with their mothers.
    • Israel will agree to three to five days of ceasefire.
    • Israel will allow in more fuel and .
    • Israel will release 150 prisoners, including minors over 16, who have not committed murder.
  • The security cabinet is thought to be divided on its approach to such a deal, with Defence Minister Gallant said to believe that Hamas is on the verge of collapse, with three IDF battalions making swift advances in Gaza.
  • Gallant foresees this being the first of several hostage negotiations and so is eager to reduce the concessions made by Israel in return for the first group of hostage releases.
  • Ministers, and war cabinet members, Gantz and Eisenkot are thought to be more pessimistic and think that the deal currently on offer might well be the only offer Israel receives.
  • Any hostage deal will first be approved by the security cabinet, but according to Israeli law the whole cabinet needs to vote on it.
  • The IDF has provided further evidence of Hamas’s widespread use of hospitals. A tunnel shaft with a car that was supposed to be used in the attack on the Gaza periphery communities was found inside Shifa Hospital, with multiple weapons inside.
  • Weapons were also discovered in Al Quds Hospital, and a terrorist tunnel in Rantisi Hospital.
  • Israel does not generally comment on attacks on targets in .
  • The US has expressed increasing concern over both the humanitarian situation in Gaza and the situation of patients and staff inside hospitals. It has also supported Israeli evidence of Hamas’s use of hospitals.
  • Netanyahu said that Israel was engaging with hospitals “very gingerly because we’re trying to do the moral thing, the right thing, to deprive Hamas of having this safe zone in a hospital, but at the same time to neutralise its use as a command centre for terror. And so far we’ve achieved that.”

Looking ahead: Family members of the hostages are currently on the fourth day of a march from Tel Aviv to the Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem, which they are expected to reach on Saturday. They aim to keep the focus on the hostages and pressure the government to prioritise their safe return.

  • Israel continues to search for tunnel shafts within the Shifa hospital complex, in the knowledge that Hamas had time to remove the most incriminating evidence and for key commanders to escape among the civilians

November 16, 2023

The IDF continues to operate within the Shifa hospital compound

Gaza Strip: According to the IDF, they discovered an “operational command centre, weapons, and technological assets in the MRI building of the Shifa Hospital.”

  • “In another department in the hospital, the soldiers located an operational command centre and technological assets belonging to Hamas, indicating that the terrorist organisation uses the hospital for terrorist purposes.”
  • In the initial entry, the IDF killed several gunmen at the entrance to the hospital. According to Al-Jazeera, 200 Palestinians were arrested.
  • The IDF also took over Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh’s residence (Haniyeh is based in Qatar), which according to the IDF, “was used as terrorist infrastructure, and often served as a meeting point for Hamas’ senior leaders to direct terror attacks against Israeli civilians and IDF soldiers.”
  • In addition, during operations in the Shati neighbourhood, “IDF troops located and destroyed a Hamas naval forces weapons cache, containing diving gear, explosive devices, and weapons. IDF troops also struck terrorists and located weapons including explosive belts, explosive barrels, RPGs, anti-tank missiles, comms equipment, and intelligence documents.”
  • In the course of the fighting two more IDF soldiers were killed, taking the total to 50 since the ground operation began.
  • According to Hamas, the Gazan death toll has reached 11,500. It is not clear how many of them were combatants.
  • Israel also allowed 23,000 litres of diesel to enter into Gaza via Egypt under the auspice of the UN.

Hostages: There is continued speculation for a deal.

  • The latest contours suggest:
    • Hamas release 50 hostages, comprising children with their mothers.
    • Israel will agree to three to five days of ceasefire.
    • Israel will allow in more fuel and .
    • Israel will release 150 prisoners, including minors over 16, who have not committed murder.
  • The mechanism suggests that the ceasefire will only start once the first batch are released. There will then be a staggered release on both sides each day of the ceasefire.
  • Israel is also demanding that Hamas takes full responsibility for all the children, so as not to claim that some are held by other factions or cannot be found.
  • Israel has further demands, with some government officials arguing that by continuing the fighting at this point they can extract further concessions, including the release of closer to 100 hostages including all the children and their parents.
  • The negotiations are facilitated by a series of talks via the US, Egypt and Qatar and then onto Hamas leaders. The process is complicated by limited contact with Hamas leaders inside Gaza.
  • Any deal will first be approved by the security cabinet, but according to Israeli law the whole cabinet needs to vote on it. Last night a meeting to convene the full cabinet was cancelled.

UK Parliament: A Scottish National Party motion calling for a ceasefire in the House of Commons was defeated by 293 votes against to 125 in favour last night.

  • The Israeli embassy in London welcomed the result of the vote, saying “the UK parliament vote this evening shows a strong moral clarity.”
  • Eight shadow junior members from the UK opposition Labour party either resigned or were fired last night after rebelling against the party in voting for a ceasefire.
  • A total of 56 Labour MPs voted for the motion, with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer having warned in advance that shadow cabinet members would face consequences for doing so.
  • Starmer has continued to back Israel’s right to defend itself, and to support the US position, shared with the UK government, in favour of humanitarian pauses rather than a ceasefire.
  • His position has caused divisions within the party, with a number of local government officials across the country resigning from the party.
  • Saying he regretted the decisions of his frontbench colleagues, Starmer affirmed that “alongside leaders around the world, I have called throughout for adherence to international law, for humanitarian pauses to allow access for aid, food, water, utilities and medicine, and have expressed our concerns at the scale of civilian casualties.”
  • He added: “leadership is about doing the right thing. That is the least the public deserves. And the least that leadership demands.”
  • Labour’s own motion calling for humanitarian pauses was defeated by 290 to 183 votes.
  • Elsewhere in Parliament, dozens of British MPs yesterday viewed a screening of the IDF’s raw footage of October 7th obtained from Hamas bodycams.

UN Security Council: The council last night agreed a resolution introduced by Malta calling for the implementation of “urgent and extended humanitarian pauses and corridors throughout the Gaza Strip”.

  • It further called for “all parties [to] comply with their obligations under international law, notably with regard to the protection of civilians, especially children.”
  • The resolution made no condemnation of Hamas, nor mentioned its devastating attack of October 7th in which at least 1,200 Israelis were killed.
  • The US, UK, and Russia abstained from the vote, resulting in a 12-0 vote in favour. US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield explained the American abstention by saying that “there’s no excuse for failing to condemn these acts of terror. Let’s be crystal clear … Hamas set this conflict in motion.”
  • Russia proposed an amendment calling for a more immediate ceasefire. It was defeated when it failed to gain sufficient votes, hence its abstention from vote on the main resolution.
  • In response, Israeli ambassador to the UN Gilad Erdan said the resolution “will have no meaning in practice” and that Israel “is acting according to international law, while the Hamas terrorists will not read the resolution at all and will not act on it.”
  • The Israeli Foreign Ministry also responded, saying there would be “no room for extended humanitarian pauses as long as 239 hostages are still in the hands of Hamas terrorists.”
  • The vote was the first time the council succeeded in passing a resolution since October 7th, with four previous resolutions having failed – one introduced by Brazil was vetoed by the US, a US resolution was vetoed by Russia and China, and two Russian-drafted resolutions failed to get the minimum yay votes.

Context: From the Israeli perspective the Shifa hospital has been considered an infamous Hamas stronghold for over a decade.

  • With IDF advances over the last week, Hamas had time to remove the most incriminating evidence and for key commanders to escape among the civilians. Meanwhile, searches continue for tunnel shafts within the hospital complex.
  • Whilst not capturing or killing senior Hamas leadership, the IDF’s more cautious approach to the hospital bought it important credit, especially with the Biden administration, allowing them to continue operations.
  • Hamas deliberately used the hospital as a base, precisely because they felt it gave them immunity from aerial attack. It could also use the hospital’s power supply for operating the underground tunnel system.
  • The IDF’s public campaign of messages to the Gazan population and direct conversations with hospital staff led to the evacuation of around 50,000 people who were in the hospital compound a week ago, down to an estimated 1,500, roughly half patients, half staff.
  • In parallel to the elite commandos that continue to search the hospital, the IDF also brought in vital medical equipment, including incubators for the premature babies, and to ensure they keep their power supply.
  • Israel’s position remains that a pause or extended ceasefire is out of the question as long as Hamas and its fellow Gazan terrorists retain the hostages.
  • It is also disinclined to provide Hamas time to regroup, re-arm and jeopardise the Israeli gains in the northern Strip, and is concerned that, based on experience from previous rounds of fighting, international pressure will only increase if it re-engages after an extensive pause.
  • In the north of Israel, Hezbollah continued to launch rockets into Israel. Yesterday 20 rockets landed in open areas.
    • One landed in the town of Shlomi.
    • Three anti-tank missiles were fired toward IDF positions on the border.
    • In all these instances, the IDF returned fire to the source.
  • This morning there was a terror attack on the tunnels road south of Jerusalem. Initial reports suggest three terrorists opened fire, four people were injured one in critical condition, the three gunmen were shot and killed.

Looking ahead: The search of the hospital is expected to continue. In order to maintain legitimacy the IDF is conscious to keep their activity as transparent as possible, and continue to allow international media to be embedded among the troops.

  • With the IDF in control of northern Gaza there remains significant Hamas military infrastructure in the south. Eastern neighbourhoods of the southern Gaza city of Khan Yunis have been warned to evacuate their homes to proscribed safe zones elsewhere in the south.
  • It is anticipated that the UK’s new Foreign Secretary, Lord Cameron, will visit Israel soon.

November 15, 2023

IDF enters Al-Shifa Hospital

Gaza Strip: IDF troops entered the hospital compound in Gaza City early this morning.

  • IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari said the IDF’s military activity is taking place according to operational needs, “in a specified complex for which there is intelligence information indicating terrorist activity.”
  • Before entering the hospital, IDF forces encountered explosives and terrorist squads and a fight ensued during which terrorists were eliminated.
  • As part of a humanitarian effort, the IDF confirmed this morning that incubators, baby food and medical supplies have now reached the hospital. Hagari added that “medical teams of the IDF, together with Arabic speaking soldiers, are present in the field to make sure that the medical equipment reaches those who need it.”
  • Earlier yesterday, IDF officials said that a search of the basement of Rantisi Hospital had turned up several suicide vests, rockets, and anti-tank missiles, in addition to potential signs that hostages had been there.
  • The IDF has also assumed operational control of the Al-Shati refugee camp in Gaza City and has and continued to seize other Hamas governmental and military assets in Gaza City.
  • Defence Minister Gallant said, “Hamas has lost control, and we control the entire area of the northern Gaza Strip, and in particular in Gaza City. The entire city is in practice a single terrorist fortress. We haven’t the moral right to stop the fighting as long as the hostages are held.”
  • In addition, IDF ground troops yesterday located a Hamas training camp containing terror tunnel shafts, classrooms, intelligence material, and weapons including rockets and loaded RPGs.
  • Despite the IDF’s control over northern Gaza, sporadic rockets continued to be launched from southern Gaza.  A 20-year-old man was seriously wounded and a woman in her forties was slightly wounded by shrapnel from a rocket that fell in Tel Aviv.

The North: In a relatively quieter day in the northern section, there were four instances of anti-tank four directed towards northern Israel, with no injuries reported. The IDF targeted an additional four cells before they were able to launch attacks.

  • A senior member of Hamas in Lebanon, Osama Hamdan, said it still intends to continue attacking Israel. “We are telling the occupation that the battle is still at the beginning,” Hamdan said at a press conference, “What is coming is bigger.”

Hostages: Israel’s War Cabinet received an update on the negotiations for a potential hostage deal.

  • Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar was in Egypt for talks with with Director of the Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate Abbas Kamel in an attempt to advance a deal.
  • Families of the hostages set off on a march from the Tel Aviv square dubbed ‘Hostages Plaza’ to PM Netanyahu’s office in Jerusalem, demanding a full deal to release all captives.

Context: Israeli forces now exercise effective control over northern Gaza, including over Hamas’s parliament building in Gaza City.

  • Israel continues to try and advance its two primary objectives – toppling the Hamas regime in Gaza and badly damaging its military capabilities, as well as freeing the hostages.
  • Israeli forces now exercise effective control over northern Gaza, including over Hamas’s parliament building in Gaza City.
  • It has, for several weeks, urged Gazan civilians to move south away from fighting and hospitals in conflict areas to begin evacuation processes.
  • The IDF assesses it has mapped out 95 per cent of the underground city beneath Shati, considered one of Hamas’ main infrastructure centres, 30 per cent of which has already been destroyed.
  • Hamas’ Security Square and the parliament building, which originally belonged to the Palestinian Authority and which Hamas took by force in 2007, has also been taken.
  • Two brigades deployed by Hamas in northern Gaza and Gaza City have been critically harmed and their chain of command is only partially functioning. Yet three other brigades in the refugee camps in the centre of Gaza and in Khan Yunis and Rafah, have sustained little damage and are still maintaining a chain of command and control. Hamas does not seem to be in any rush to surrender.
  • A possible deal is being discussed which would include the release of dozens of kidnapped civilians in exchange for dozens of Palestinian female prisoners, teenagers or sick prisoners, a humanitarian truce and the introduction of fuel and additional aid to the Strip.
  • US President Joe Biden said he believes the release of hostages held by Hamas is “going to happen, but I don’t want to get into any details.” Israel continues to rate the chances of reaching a deal as “moderate.”
  • Disagreement remains over the number of hostages to be released, and humanitarian relief measures that Israel would have to permit in exchange. Israeli officials have said that they doubt that Hamas will agree to release all the children and women in the deal, believing that Hamas will try to hold onto as many means of pressure as possible on the hostages’ families and, through them, on the broader public and the government.
  • Palestinian Islamic Jihad has said it may wait for “better conditions” to release the 34 hostages it holds and may opt out of any deal between Israel and Hamas.
  • The IDF believes Hamas held hostages beneath Al-Shifa Hospital. About 700 patients along with another 800 staff and others remain in the hospital. By sending in medical teams, the IDF is making a clear distinction between Gazan civilians and Hamas fighters.
  • Beyond the southern and northern front, Israel continues to contend with threats from Yemen. A surface-to-surface missile, believed to have been launched from Yemen at Eilat was intercepted over the Red Sea by the Arrow air defence system.
  • Senior US official Brett McGurk arrived in Israel today for the start of a regional visit.
  • McGurk’s agenda is the expansion of humanitarian assistance to Gaza, application of economic pressure on Hamas, to demand the immediate release of the hostages, and to consult on a viable pathway to a Palestinian state.

Looking ahead: Israel will allow UNRWA fuel trucks to enter the Gaza Strip via the Rafah border crossing to facilitate the agency’s ongoing humanitarian work in southern Gaza.

  • After its impressive achievements in the northern Gaza Strip, Israel will soon likely have to contend with the south, in which Hamas retains control and into which approximately 1 million northern Gazans have now fled.
  • The leader of the Houthis says the group will continue attacks on Israel, and that they are “looking for Israeli ships in the Red Sea.”

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