What happened: Last night the IDF launched a large scale military operation in the city of Jenin and its refugee camp which included both ground forces and airstrikes.

• Over 1000 troops encircled the area, including over 15 IDF bulldozers to combat the improvised explosive devices (IEDs) planted along the roads.
• IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari explained the objective of the operation is to break the terror infrastructure which includes destroying labs where explosive devices and weapons are built, to target armed men, to collect weapons, and to arrest wanted men.
• One of the first targets was the joint terror command post. It served as the shared war room for various terror organisations. It was also used as a meeting point for arming terrorists with weapons and explosive devices and a communication centre for operatives. The command post served as a shelter for wanted operatives for terror attacks in the sector in the last few months.
• The IDF has also targeted a weapons production and IED storage facility. Forces also “located and confiscated an improvised rocket launcher along with additional weapons.”
• During the initial raid, the IDF made announcements over loud speakers: “Troops are operating in the area against armed men. Remain at home! Keep your family safe.”
• However, in parallel there were calls from mosques on the public to resist and to confront IDF troops.
• Israeli media are reporting that 20 wanted men have been arrested so far and an estimated ten terrorists killed.
• Defence Minister Gallant said, “Security forces are concentrating efforts against terrorist hubs in Jenin. We will take an offensive and aggressive stance against terrorism. Anyone who attacks Israeli citizens will pay a high price. The security establishment is prepared for any scenario.”

Context: The IDF have has been preparing for an operation like this for the last year, but it was only recently approved.

• It became more pressing following the recent deadly terror attacks in Eli, the deployment of IEDs against IDF troops and the introduction of rudimentary attempts to launch rockets last week.
• Hagari noted that in the last two years, 50 shooting attacks had originated in Jenin and that 19 terrorists had fled to Jenin. Three Israeli citizens were killed and 14 were wounded in terror attacks originating in Jenin during this time. He added, “Jenin will no longer be a city of asylum for terrorists.”
• Hagari also clarified that the operation is not against the Palestinian Authority, stating “we are strict about coordinating with the Palestinian security organisations as much as possible.”
• Israeli officials have also stressed that this is operation is limited, with no desire to extend it to other cities in the West Bank.
• The joint terror command post that was attacked was in the centre of the refugee camp near UNRWA compounds, including a school, a clinic and a food distribution centre. Hagari said that the enemy had been surprised by the air strike in the heart of the camp, in places that it thought were not known to Israel.

Looking ahead: The IDF is on high alert, including air defence systems in the south, in case Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad decide to fire rockets out of the Gaza Strip.

• This operation is expected to be limited in scope, with no plan to continue beyond a few days for the time being.

What happened: An organisation called the “Ayyash Battalion,” affiliated to the military wing of Hamas, launched two rockets from the Jenin area towards the Israeli community of Moshav Ram On, just north of the West Bank on Monday.

• The rudimentary rockets exploded in the air inside uninhabited Palestinian Authority (PA) territory.
• The IDF found rockets intact and without warheads, one which had fallen after five metres and the other after 80 metres. The IDF also found the launchers.
• Hamas’s military wing, Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, released footage and afterwards issued a statement, “It is only a matter of time until you hear of additional Ayyash and Qassam rockets that will destroy your strongholds. Soon alerts and warnings will be heard in the West Bank, and these will dictate a new stage of development and clashes with the Zionist occupier. Occupied Tel Aviv is not far away, and will be within firing range of the fighters.”

Context: Whilst these rockets are basic, unsophisticated and do not pose the same risks as the rockets out of Gaza Strip, the potential for technical development of rockets from the West Bank is cause for great concern.

• The first rockets fired from the Gaza Strip were in 2001. Since then, far more potent rockets have developed with a longer range and larger warheads.
• The situation would be compounded in the West Bank due to the close proximity to large Israeli population centres.
• Israeli intelligence has been wary of the potential threat of producing rockets for several years, but have only recently noticed an increased effort to develop these capabilities.
• Two months ago the head of the Shin Bet Ronen Bar revealed that they had arrested a terror cell in Jenin that had planned to fire rockets out of Jenin.
• This is the second such incident, last month the IDF found a rocket launcher after a similar video was posted online.
• This threat can also be seen in parallel to last week’s improvised explosive device (IED) which targeted IDF vehicles leaving Jenin and wounded six soldiers.
• The Ayyash Battalion is named after the notorious Hamas terrorist Yahya Ayyash, known as ‘the engineer’. He was Hamas’s top bombmaker in the 1990s before being killed by Israel after he was handed a mobile phone which was detonated remotely.

West Bank policy: The Israeli government appears to be split, between manging the conflict and cooperating with the PA and on the other hand, hard right politicians that want to weaken the PA and annex territory.

• This distinction can also be seen in their attitude towards settlers rioting and attacking Palestinians.
• Last night the prime minister convened a meeting to discuss settler violence where heads of security establishment heavily criticised the stance of Minister Ben Gvir.
• While earlier, Minister of Defence Gallant spoke with Minister of Civil Affairs in the PA, Hussein Al-Sheik, his first interaction with a senior PA official.
• According to Gallant’s office, he “emphasised the need to restore stability in the area, for the benefit of both the Jewish and Palestinian residents…. Minister Gallant also noted that the defence establishment views the recent violence against Palestinian civilians with great concern and emphasised that the State of Israel will take action to bring the perpetrators to justice.”
• Defence Minister Gallant concluded by “wishing Minister Al-Sheik a happy Eid al-Adha, and conveyed his wishes that the holiday will serve as an opportunity to strengthen security and stability in the region.”
• Also yesterday, President Herzog called the Head of the PA Mahmoud Abbas to also convey his greetings on the occasion of The Feast of Sacrifice, Eid al-Adha. “President Herzog emphasised in their conversation the importance of a forceful, persistent war against terror, incitement and hatred and he underscored the horrendous price and pain which terror inflicts upon bereaved families and Israeli society as a whole. The President reiterated the need to act fiercely to thwart terror which harms individuals, families and communities, as well as the chance to live peacefully, side by side, in the region and the broader Middle East. The President further underlined his unequivocal denouncement of the recent assault on innocent Palestinians by extremists.”
• Last night Foreign Minister Cohen spoke to US Secretary of State Blinken. Blinken said the US appreciated the condemnations of settler violence by the prime minister, the foreign minister and the defence minister, but that it expected Israel to do more.

Looking ahead: The security establishment views these rockets as a warning that Hamas and other groups continue to develop their capacity.

• Debate is continuing whether Israel will need to launch a more substantial military operation in Jenin. Whilst there is little appetite to occupy PA controlled areas, they could send in a large number of troops that would carry out targeted raids against terrorist infrastructure, over a period of a day or two and then leave.

• There is already an expanded presence of IDF troops deployed in the West Bank, in an effort to reassure the Israeli residents and serve as a deterrent to further attacks.

What happened: Three members of a Palestinian terrorist cell likely behind multiple recent shooting attacks were killed on Wednesday evening in an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) strike on their car in Jenin.

• The cell had attempted a shooting at a checkpoint near the Jalame crossing earlier in the evening. Their car was then identified by IDF troops with corroboration from the Shin Bet security service, before both Defence Minister Yoav Gallant and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu authorised the aerial strike.
• Three assault rifles were later found in the car, two of the dead were affiliated with Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and the third to Fatah’s Al-Aqsa Brigade.
• Security and intelligence officials are working to establish if theirs is the same cell which carried out recent shootings at Shaked and Maale Gilboa (the latter beyond the West Bank security barrier in northern Israel) and the terror attack near Hermesh which killed Meir Tamari.
• Elsewhere in the West Bank, Israeli settlers rioted in several locations in response to Tuesday’s killing of four Israelis by Hamas-affiliated terrorists near the West Bank settlement of Eli.

• In the village of Luban a-Sharqiya, next door to the Jewish settlement of Beit Aryeh, young settlers set fire to at least 15 cars and smashed Palestinian shops.
• After the funeral of terror victim Nahman Shmuel Mordof, around 200 youths entered the village of Turmus Aya, near Ramallah. Palestinian media reported 30 homes and 60 cars set alight. Further significant violence then ensued in the area of the Shilo junction, north of the village. Israel Police and Border Police officers, together with IDF troops, arrived to protect firefighters who came under attack whilst trying to stem the fires. One Palestinian was shot by Israeli forces.
• In a further incident, video has emerged that shows masked settlers, accompanied by a dog, leaving a mosque in the Palestinian village of Urif, and one of them appearing to tear apart a Quran in the street outside.
• So far the Shin Bet has arrested three Jews for the rioting in Palestinian villages.

Context: The strike on the Jenin cell is the first aerial strike by Israel in the West Bank since 2006. This represents a shifting of the tactical paradigm also seen in Monday’s raid on Jenin in which a helicopter gunship augmented fire in the West Bank for the first time in two decades.

• Though the IDF is thought to have been reluctant to reintroduce UAV strikes now, the wounding of soldiers by an IED deployed by Palestinian militants during Monday’s IDF raid on Jenin shifted the calculus and made further incursions of ground troops more dangerous.
• Netanyahu and Gallant spoke with the OC Southern Command in the wake of the Jenin operation and requested an alternative method. The Shin Bet concurred that aerial strikes were a viable possibility, despite the army’s continued objections.
• Advancements in UAV technology since 2006 mean that such strikes can now be more surgically precise and in fact lessen the potential for civilian casualties compared with an incursion of ground troops.
• The IDF was also quick to clarify publicly that “this was not a targeted killing; it was to defuse a threat.”
• The military is also reluctant to pursue a larger anti-terror offensive in the West Bank, on the scale, say, of 2002’s Operation Defensive Shield. It prefers to continue its strategy, seen throughout Operation Breakwater, of targeted and intelligence-led operations.
• Pressure for a wider operation is increasing from the political echelon, the commentariat, and sections of the public, however, with 147 “significant” terror attacks having already occurred in Israel and the West Bank this year, and with security forces have thwarted a further 375. There is a wide recognition that the post-Second Intifada status quo is now at an end, such is the rise of young, semi-autonomous West Bank terror groups and the parallel decline in the authority of the PA.
• Most voluble in calling for a large-scale operation is National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who was excluded from the Security Cabinet meeting, as he was during last month’s clashes between Israel and PIJ in Gaza.
• The IDF condemned the rioting in the West Bank strongly: “The IDF denounces these serious incidents of violence and arson. Incidents like this block the IDF and security forces from focusing on their main goal: defending the citizens of Israel and preventing terrorism.”
• The IDF Spokesperson, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, later acknowledged that the army had “failed to prevent” the “very grave” incidents. Vowing improvement, Hagari condemned the violence as something that “… creates terror and escalation, and takes the population that isn’t involved in terror and pushes it there, while preventing the IDF from fighting terror in operational activities.”
• There was condemnation, too, from across the political spectrum. In addition older settler also condemned the rioters, highlighting the coexistence that had existed between residents of Beit Aryeh and Luban a-Sharqiya.

Looking ahead: With the divergent views of the military and the political echelon on both the use of UAVs and a widening of the scope of Israeli West Bank counter-terror operations, it remains to be seen how Israel will next respond to the ever-deteriorating security situation in the West Bank.

• In the wake of Hagari’s comments, the IDF will be under pressure to improve the speed and effectiveness of its response to any future settler rioting.

What happened: The IDF entered Jenin early this morning with the aim of arresting two wanted suspects.

• Israeli media reported that one of the suspects included Azzam Abu al-Hjja, the son of a senior Hamas official, Jamal Abu al-Hija, who is imprisoned in Israel.
• During the raid a massive exchange of fire took place between the forces and armed gunmen in the area.
• In addition, explosive devices were thrown at an IDF armoured vehicle, with unconfirmed reports suggesting five or six soldiers were wounded.
• In order to extricate the IDF troops a helicopter gunship was deployed targeting armed gunmen and allowing for evacuation of the injured troops.
• According to Palestinian sources, three Palestinians were killed, with over thirty wounded.

Context: Helicopter gunships have not been deployed in combat in the West Bank since the Second Intifada, over twenty years ago.

• It was not planned to be used in this morning’s operation, but was deemed a necessary response following the targeting of an IDF vehicles.
• Palestinian sources claimed that powerful IEDs (improvised explosive devices) were planted in the ground beforehand and were detonated as the Israeli forces were leaving the area.
• So far this year over 120 Palestinians have been killed, the vast majority armed combatants.
• In parallel today, a delegation of senior Hamas officials, led by Ismail Haniyeh, are visiting Tehran and expected to meet with senior Iranian officials.

Wider regional threats: Speaking at yesterday’s weekly cabinet meeting Prime Minister Netanyahu once more highlighted that his government’s top priority is to “stop the nuclearisation of Iran.“

• Netanyahu reiterated that he has expressed his opposition to US officials that any agreement, “will only pave Iran’s way to a bomb and line its pockets with hundreds of billions of dollars.”
• Adding, “We have also told them that the most limited understandings, what are termed ‘mini-agreements’, do not, in our view, serve the goal and we are opposed to them as well. In any case, we have made it clear, and I reiterate, the State of Israel will do whatever it needs to, with its own means, to defend itself from Iranian aggression both in the nuclear sphere and, of course, through its use of terrorist proxies.”
• On Friday, Minister of Defence Yoav Gallant met with US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin in Brussels. The meeting focused on improving military cooperation between the two countries.
• In the background the New York Times has been reporting that the US is looking to reach an unofficial and unwritten agreement with Iran. According to the understandings:
  • Iran will undertake not to enrich uranium beyond 60%.
  • Not to attack US assets in Syria or Iraq.
  • Not to sell ballistic missiles to Russia.
  • In return, the US will refrain from imposing stricter sanctions and will unfreeze Iranian assets worth billions of dollars.
  • The US also expects Iran to reinstate monitoring of Iranian nuclear sites.
• From Israel’s perspective any deal that does not dismantle Iran’s nuclear capacity leaves them as a potential threshold nuclear state.
• Israel is also concerned that if Iran receives the reported 20 billion dollars from their frozen assets, some of the money will go to Hezbollah, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

Looking ahead: Operation Breakwater, launched two years, is likely to continue its regular incursions into the West Bank, in the absence of Palestinian Authority security forces’ ability to combat extremist elements.

• US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf will visit the region this week and is expected to meet Israeli, Palestinian Authority and Jordanian officials.
• Following the Gallant – Austin meeting, more joint miliary exercises between the IDF and US Central Command are expected to take place.
• Gallant and Austin also agreed to increase intelligence cooperation relating to Iran.

What happened: The IDF published findings from an investigation that followed the killing of three soldiers by an Egyptian policeman ten days ago.

• The IDF concluded that several contributing factors led to the attack: an easily opened small emergency gate on the border barrier which was unknown to troops stationed in the area; an over-prioritisation of drug smuggling incidents; and excessively lengthy guard shifts.
• IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi said that the army “conducted an exhaustive and in-depth investigation,” and along “with quality work, initiative and successes” also found “operational and command faults and gaps.”
• The chief of the IDF’s Southern Command, Maj. Gen. Eliezer Toledano, who probed the troops’ conduct said that “The special security passage was viewed by us as a hidden passage…” and “not updating the soldiers on this passage was a systemic failure.” He emphasised that this was a failure that lasted for several years, which unfortunately this incident brought to the fore.”
• While the army determined that it was essential to deploy soldiers in the region due to smuggling attempts and a large number of Israeli travellers, the report stated that splitting the soldiers into pairs, as well as the overly long duration of their defence missions – 12 hours – had to be considered and conducted differently. The IDF also said that no faults were found in the actions of the troops who had been killed.
• In its statement, the IDF noted that it would “refine the order of priorities established for the readiness for terror incidents and the readiness to deal with the frequent threat of smuggling in this area.”
• The IDF also determined that two commanders bore some responsibility. While Col. Ido Sa’ad, the commander of the Paran Brigade, acted correctly in engaging with and killing the Egyptian attacker, he was considered to “overall responsibility for the event and the manner by which operations are carried out in his area.” Sa’ad will thus be dismissed from his role and moved to another position within the IDF. Lt. Col. Ivan Kon, the commander of the Bardelas Battalion, will be formally reprimanded for his “responsibility for the implementation of the operating concept in his forces.”

Context: This is the first time in over 20 years that a brigade commander has been relieved of his post over an operational incident.

• The IDF report noted a series of operational errors and a failure to follow protocol.  The sense within the IDF is that improvements will be made to operational discipline and training for combat soldiers.
• Relative to other fronts, the 230km border with Egypt is considered relatively peaceful.  Israel and Egypt enjoy high level security cooperation, primarily focused on the shared threat of Islamist extremists, as well as coordination on their policy towards Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
• The incident on the 3rd June occurred when an Egyptian policeman entered Israeli territory through an emergency crossing in the border fence, subsequently killing Sergeant Lia Ben Nun and Staff Sgt. Ori Yitzhak Iluz. The last time anyone in the army heard from Ben Nun and Illouz was at 4:15 A.M. At 7:13 A.M., shots were heard in the area, yet the dead soldiers weren’t found until 9 A.M., by their platoon commander. Several hours later, during a firefight, the policemen also killed Staff Sgt. Ohad Dahan, before being shot dead himself.
• While few casualties have occurred along the Israel-Egypt border in recent years, the area is considered a key route for drug smugglers which the IDF actively tries to prevent and the incident took place after a large smuggling operation was thwarted not far from the site of the attack.
• Sinai-based terrorists carried out multiple attacks against Israel in 2011 and 2012. In one multi-staged attack in August 2011, six Israeli civilians, an IDF soldier, and a counter-terrorism police officer were killed, as well as five Egyptian soldiers.
• The Egyptian border is patrolled by the Bardelas and Caracal; mixed-gender light infantry battalions part of the IDF’s Border Defence Corps, in the Southern Command.

Looking ahead: The speedy conclusion of this investigation could set a precedent for future enquiries to be completed with similar efficiency.

• Maj. Gen. Nimrod Aloni, who is due to assume the position of head of the IDF’s Depth Corps and Military Colleges, will head a team that will investigate the “systemic” failures that contributed to the deadly attack. His team is due to “examine the operational and systemic perception of defence of peaceful borders.”

The Ceasefire

• An Egyptian-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) went into effect from 10.00pm last night.
• Rocket fire emanated from the Gaza Strip around an hour after, followed by Israeli strikes in response, but as of this morning the truce seems to be holding.
• Text of the ceasefire reads: “The two sides will abide by… an end to targeting civilians, house demolition, an end to targeting individuals immediately…”
• Israeli National Security Council Director Tzachi Hanegbi “thanked Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and expressed the appreciation of the State of Israel for Egypt’s intensive efforts to secure a ceasefire. The NSC Director made it clear that Israel’s acceptance of the Egyptian initiative means that ‘quiet will be met with quiet’, and that if Israel is attacked or threatened, it will continue to do everything that it needs to in order to defend itself.”
• PIJ spokesman Dawoud Shehab, meanwhile, announced that the group “declare our acceptance of the Egyptian announcement and we will abide by it as long as the occupation (Israel) abides by it.”
• Meanwhile, in a televised press statement, PIJ leader Ziyad al-Nakhalah thanked Iran, Hezbollah, Qatar, and Egypt for their support during the conflict.
• Hamas, which although keen to avoid direct entanglement in the conflict has played a more collaborative role with PIJ then in previous recent campaigns, praised the “Palestinian Resistance Factions for defending the Palestinian people against the most recent Israeli aggression against the Gaza Strip.” Tellingly, it referenced explicitly the Joint Operations Room it operated alongside PIJ.
• PIJ, for its part, praised the solidarity of all wings of the Palestinian movement, but did not name Hamas.
• UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said: “I welcome the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and militant factions in Gaza, brokered by Egypt. The ceasefire must now be honoured to prevent the loss of further civilian life. The UK will support all efforts to promote dialogue and create a pathway towards sustainable peace.”
• News of the ceasefire was also welcomed by both White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Tor Wennesland.

• Hamas has announced a full return to normal in the Gaza Strip, while Israel will gradually relax restrictions imposed on the strip today. The Erez crossing reopened at 8:00 and Kerem Shalom 11:00, enabling the return to work in Israel of the 18,000 Gazans in possession of work permits. Coastal waters have also been reopened.
• Domestically, closed Israeli roads have reopened this morning, though schools will remain shut today in Ashkelon and on the Gaza periphery.

Operation Shield and Arrow in summary

• According to IDF figures, some 1234 rockets were launched at Israel from Gaza during the last week.
  • 976 crossed over into Israel.
  • 221 landed in Gaza.
  • 373 were intercepted by Iron Dome.
• The rocket fire caused two civilian deaths in Israel:
  • 80-year-old Inga Avramyan was killed when the ceiling of her Rehovot apartment collapsed following a direct hit last Thursday. According to Avramyan’s grandson, she was killed trying to help her paralysed husband reach shelter.
  • A Gazan construction worker was killed yesterday when a rocket hit the border moshav of Shokeda where he was working. A fellow Palestinian construction worker and an Israeli Bedouin were also injured, the former seriously.

• Israel struck 371 terrorist targets, including targeted assassinations of senior PIJ leaders, PIJ command posts, rocket facilities, and attack tunnels.
• On Friday, a sixth senior PIJ leader was killed by a targeted Israeli strike. Iyad al-Hassani, PIJ’s director of operations, a veteran of the al-Quds Brigades, and a prominent figure in attacks on Israelis during the Second Intifada, died alongside his assistant in a strike on the Nasser neighbourhood of Gaza City.
• Al-Hassani is the latest and perhaps final senior PIJ figure to be killed in Operation Arrow and Shield, joining Jahed Ahnam (Military Council Secretary), Khalil Bahitini (Senior Operational Officer in Gaza), Tarek Az Aldin (Senior Operative and Coordinator of Terrorism in Gaza and the West Bank), Ali Ghassan Ghali (PIJ Rocket Unit Commander), and Ahmad Abu Deka (PIJ Rocket Unit Deputy Commander)
• Overall, 33 Palestinians have died during the fighting over the past week: 10 were civilians, most of whom were family members of the three senior PIJ figures killed in the operation’s opening stages.
• IDF data suggests that a further four civilians were killed by misfiring PIJ rockets, which also caused at least 23 injuries.
• According to Palestinian media, a child, Tamim Daud, died from a heart attack brought on by the fighting.

From the commentators

• Yossi Yehoshua in Yediot Ahronot: “If [the ceasefire holds] … one can say that Operation Shield and Arrow was one of the most successful IDF and GSS operations to have been carried out in the Gaza Strip. Islamic Jihad was dealt a painful blow, possibly the most painful it has been dealt by Israel to date. It lost most of its top commanders in precision targeted killing operations that were carried out in the opening strike last week, and it continued to lose more top commanders amid the ongoing fighting. Islamic Jihad also found itself hard put to launch significant barrages of rocket fire on Israel that caused extensive damage… The way in which the operation ended can also be chalked up as a partial Israeli achievement. The IDF wanted to conclude this round of fighting as quickly as possible, as did the Israeli political leadership, and to capitalise on the fact that Egypt and Hamas were in favour of a ceasefire. Iran pressured Islamic Jihad into continuing the fight for as long as possible, and that pressure yielded results for five days—but not more than that. Islamic Jihad has emerged from this operation battered and bruised. Furthermore, taking a broader view of things, its patrons in Tehran also suffered a blow, one that arrived at a good time from Israel’s perspective given the Iranians recent brazenness.”

• Yoav Limor in Israel Hayom: “Israel would have run the risk of eroding [its] achievements as the operation ran longer. The number of high-quality targets would have grown smaller, and the chances of making a mistake would have risen (as would the chances of Islamic Jihad chalking up an operational success either by means of high trajectory rocket fire or anti-tank rocket fire at a chance target). With the passage of more time, Hamas also could have found itself painted into a corner. Currently, it enjoys the fact that Islamic Jihad’s capabilities have been eroded—namely, the group that poses a domestic challenge to it has been made weaker—but the closed border crossings and the subsequent fuel shortage and ongoing suspension of Gazans’ access to their jobs in Israel would have produced public pressure on it to solve the suffocating situation. To avert that, Hamas acted behind the scenes to advance a ceasefire agreement.”

• Amos Harel in Haaretz: “the key to a cease-fire wasn’t necessarily in Israel’s hands. It’s possible that Islamic Jihad learned from the previous round, which lasted three days in August of last year during Operation Breaking Dawn, and decided it was worthwhile to continue the clash for a bit longer. Even if it failed to cause multiple Israeli casualties, the fact that it was able to continue and hold out for a while in a confrontation with the IDF could be considered an achievement… What Islamic Jihad wasn’t able to do was to drag other organizations into the scuffle or to bring about clashes in other arenas around Israel. Hamas was comfortable, at least to a certain degree, that Islamic Jihad clashed with Israel and exacted a toll on it. Until Saturday, there weren’t any signs that the larger organisation intended to take an active part in the fighting. This could have happened, especially if many Palestinian civilians became casualties as the operation continued. There were no signs of a violent escalation in Jerusalem, the West Bank, near the borders of Lebanon and Syria or in areas near the Green Line.”