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Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Key background
  • Hamas is an Islamist Palestinian nationalist movement which currently governs the Gaza Strip. It is proscribed by the UK and in the majority of western countries.
  • Its primary state backers are Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. It is also active in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon.
  • Since seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has continuously launched attacks against Israel and weaponised civilian infrastructure by embedding itself into schools, mosques, and hospitals.
  • Hamas’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel killed 1200, and over 250 hostages were subsequently taken to the Gaza Strip.

Updated July 5, 2023

IDF soldier killed as Operation House and Garden ends

What happened: Israeli forces yesterday began their withdrawal from Jenin, signalling the end of Operation House and Garden (for more on the operation see BICOM’s briefings here and here.) The IDF announced the death of an Israeli soldier during the withdrawal. Elsewhere, Tel Aviv saw a ramming terror attack and rocket fire last night began from the Gaza Strip.

In Jenin: Israel’s military operation in Jenin ended this morning, with all IDF forces having left the area.

  • Last night, an Israeli soldier, 23-year-old Sergeant-Major David Yehuda Yitzhak was killed while securing the beginning of the military’s withdrawal from Jenin. Yitzhak, from the settlement of Beit El, was critically injured during exchanges of fire. He was airlifted to hospital but succumbed to his injuries.
  • 12 Palestinian terrorists have reportedly been killed during the operation. According to the IDF, some noncombatants were among the wounded.

In Tel Aviv: Seven people were wounded, four seriously, in a car-ramming and stabbing attack in northern Tel Aviv yesterday afternoon.

  • The Palestinian assailant was named as 20-year-old Abed al-Wahab Khalaila, from the West Bank town of as-Samu. Khalaila was shot and killed by a nearby civilian.
  • Hamas said Khalaila was a member but did not claim responsibility for the attack. It praised him as a “martyr fighter” and called the ramming “heroic and revenge for the military operation in Jenin.” Palestinian Islamic Jihad also praised the attack.
  • One of the injured was a 30-year-old pregnant woman. She lost her child due to the wounds suffered in the attack.

In Gaza and southern Israel: Last night, after Israeli forces began their withdrawal from Jenin, five rockets were fired from Gaza at communities in southern Israel. All the rockets were intercepted by the Iron Dome missile defence system.

  • In response, Israel targeted what it said was an underground Hamas manufacturing facility for weapons, and another for rockets.

Context: Since early Monday morning thousands of IDF troops have been operating against terrorist infrastructure inside Jenin, targeting several command and control centres in what is the largest offensive the IDF has undertaken in twenty years.

  • Forces have confiscated over a thousand weapons, among them explosive devices, ammunition, guns, dozens of kilograms of chemical materials for making explosives, remotely operated weapons, and gas tanks.
  • The weapons were located in hideouts, a mosque, pits concealed in civilian areas, operational situation rooms, and in vehicles.
  • Two operational situation rooms used by terrorists in Jenin were also successfully located and dismantled.
  • The military operation came after a series of Palestinian terror attacks against Israelis killed 29 people. According to IDF data, of the 290 terror attacks emanating from the West Bank since June 2022, 106 (or 36.5 percent) came from Jenin.

Looking ahead: The government considers the operation to have been a success, but it is not considered to be a long-term solution to ongoing Palestinian terrorism.

  • Further – likely more limited – operations are possible in the coming weeks, with Operation House and Garden having both weakened a major terror stronghold and made conditions safer for Israeli counter-terror operations.
  • Speaking as forces were in the early stages of withdrawal, Prime Minister Netanyahu said: “I can say that our extensive operation in Jenin is not a one-off.”
  • Defence Minister Gallant stated that following the operation, Jenin is no longer a ‘terror factory’ but stressed the priority is freedom of movement. “It will take a little more time until we reach a situation where, as a result of having engaged militarily in Jenin in recent days, we will be able to move anywhere with a team of soldiers” he said.

July 3, 2023

IDF launches counter-terror operation in Jenin

What happened: Last night the IDF launched a large scale military operation in the city of Jenin and its refugee camp which included both ground forces and airstrikes.

  • Over 1000 troops encircled the area, including over 15 IDF bulldozers to combat the improvised explosive devices (IEDs) planted along the roads.
  • IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari explained the objective of the operation is to break the terror infrastructure which includes destroying labs where explosive devices and weapons are built, to target armed men, to collect weapons, and to arrest wanted men.
  • One of the first targets was the joint terror command post. It served as the shared war room for various terror organisations. It was also used as a meeting point for arming terrorists with weapons and explosive devices and a communication centre for operatives. The command post served as a shelter for wanted operatives for terror attacks in the sector in the last few months.
  • The IDF has also targeted a weapons production and IED storage facility. Forces also “located and confiscated an improvised rocket launcher along with additional weapons.”
  • During the initial raid, the IDF made announcements over loud speakers: “Troops are operating in the area against armed men. Remain at home! Keep your family safe.”
  • However, in parallel there were calls from mosques on the public to resist and to confront IDF troops.
  • Israeli media are reporting that 20 wanted men have been arrested so far and an estimated ten terrorists killed.
  • Defence Minister Gallant said, “Security forces are concentrating efforts against terrorist hubs in Jenin. We will take an offensive and aggressive stance against terrorism. Anyone who attacks Israeli citizens will pay a high price. The security establishment is prepared for any scenario.”

Context: The IDF have has been preparing for an operation like this for the last year, but it was only recently approved.

  • It became more pressing following the recent deadly terror attacks in Eli, the deployment of IEDs against IDF troops and the introduction of rudimentary attempts to launch rockets last week.
  • Hagari noted that in the last two years, 50 shooting attacks had originated in Jenin and that 19 terrorists had fled to Jenin. Three Israeli citizens were killed and 14 were wounded in terror attacks originating in Jenin during this time. He added, “Jenin will no longer be a city of asylum for terrorists.”
  • Hagari also clarified that the operation is not against the Palestinian Authority, stating “we are strict about coordinating with the Palestinian security organisations as much as possible.”
  • Israeli officials have also stressed that this is operation is limited, with no desire to extend it to other cities in the West Bank.
  • The joint terror command post that was attacked was in the centre of the refugee camp near UNRWA compounds, including a school, a clinic and a food distribution centre. Hagari said that the enemy had been surprised by the air strike in the heart of the camp, in places that it thought were not known to Israel.

Looking ahead: The IDF is on high alert, including air defence systems in the south, in case Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad decide to fire rockets out of the Gaza Strip.

  • This operation is expected to be limited in scope, with no plan to continue beyond a few days for the time being.

June 28, 2023

Attempted rocket fire from the West Bank

What happened: An organisation called the “Ayyash Battalion,” affiliated to the military wing of Hamas, launched two rockets from the Jenin area towards the Israeli community of Moshav Ram On, just north of the West Bank on Monday.

  • The rudimentary rockets exploded in the air inside uninhabited Palestinian Authority (PA) territory.
  • The IDF found rockets intact and without warheads, one which had fallen after five metres and the other after 80 metres. The IDF also found the launchers.
  • Hamas’s military wing, Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, released footage and afterwards issued a statement, “It is only a matter of time until you hear of additional Ayyash and Qassam rockets that will destroy your strongholds. Soon alerts and warnings will be heard in the West Bank, and these will dictate a new stage of development and clashes with the Zionist occupier. Occupied Tel Aviv is not far away, and will be within firing range of the fighters.”

Context: Whilst these rockets are basic, unsophisticated and do not pose the same risks as the rockets out of Gaza Strip, the potential for technical development of rockets from the West Bank is cause for great concern.

  • The first rockets fired from the Gaza Strip were in 2001. Since then, far more potent rockets have developed with a longer range and larger warheads.
  • The situation would be compounded in the West Bank due to the close proximity to large Israeli population centres.
  • Israeli intelligence has been wary of the potential threat of producing rockets for several years, but have only recently noticed an increased effort to develop these capabilities.
  • Two months ago the head of the Shin Bet Ronen Bar revealed that they had arrested a terror cell in Jenin that had planned to fire rockets out of Jenin.
  • This is the second such incident, last month the IDF found a rocket launcher after a similar video was posted online.
  • This threat can also be seen in parallel to last week’s improvised explosive device (IED) which targeted IDF vehicles leaving Jenin and wounded six soldiers.
  • The Ayyash Battalion is named after the notorious Hamas terrorist Yahya Ayyash, known as ‘the engineer’. He was Hamas’s top bombmaker in the 1990s before being killed by Israel after he was handed a mobile phone which was detonated remotely.

West Bank policy: The Israeli government appears to be split, between manging the conflict and cooperating with the PA and on the other hand, hard right politicians that want to weaken the PA and annex territory.

  • This distinction can also be seen in their attitude towards settlers rioting and attacking Palestinians.
  • Last night the prime minister convened a meeting to discuss settler violence where heads of security establishment heavily criticised the stance of Minister Ben Gvir.
  • While earlier, Minister of Defence Gallant spoke with Minister of Civil Affairs in the PA, Hussein Al-Sheik, his first interaction with a senior PA official.
  • According to Gallant’s office, he “emphasised the need to restore stability in the area, for the benefit of both the Jewish and Palestinian residents…. Minister Gallant also noted that the defence establishment views the recent violence against Palestinian civilians with great concern and emphasised that the State of Israel will take action to bring the perpetrators to justice.”
  • Defence Minister Gallant concluded by “wishing Minister Al-Sheik a happy Eid al-Adha, and conveyed his wishes that the holiday will serve as an opportunity to strengthen security and stability in the region.”
  • Also yesterday, President Herzog called the Head of the PA Mahmoud Abbas to also convey his greetings on the occasion of The Feast of Sacrifice, Eid al-Adha. “President Herzog emphasised in their conversation the importance of a forceful, persistent war against terror, incitement and hatred and he underscored the horrendous price and pain which terror inflicts upon bereaved families and Israeli society as a whole. The President reiterated the need to act fiercely to thwart terror which harms individuals, families and communities, as well as the chance to live peacefully, side by side, in the region and the broader Middle East. The President further underlined his unequivocal denouncement of the recent assault on innocent Palestinians by extremists.”
  • Last night Foreign Minister Cohen spoke to US Secretary of State Blinken. Blinken said the US appreciated the condemnations of settler violence by the prime minister, the foreign minister and the defence minister, but that it expected Israel to do more.

Looking ahead: The security establishment views these rockets as a warning that Hamas and other groups continue to develop their capacity.

  • Debate is continuing whether Israel will need to launch a more substantial military operation in Jenin. Whilst there is little appetite to occupy PA controlled areas, they could send in a large number of troops that would carry out targeted raids against terrorist infrastructure, over a period of a day or two and then leave.
  • There is already an expanded presence of IDF troops deployed in the West Bank, in an effort to reassure the Israeli residents and serve as a deterrent to further attacks.

June 23, 2023

Four Israelis killed in West Bank terror attack

What happened: Four Israelis were killed and another four wounded (one in serious condition) in a shooting attack at a petrol station next to the Eli settlement in the northern West Bank on Tuesday afternoon.

  • Two gunmen, later identified as Hamas activists, arrived at the petrol station by car. They entered the adjacent Hummus restaurant, opened fire with automatic weapons and murdered three people. A fourth man was then shot and killed at the petrol station itself.
  • In an exchange of fire one of the terrorists was killed by an armed civilian. The second fled in a car, but was shot dead by Israeli forces two hours later after boarding a taxi bound for Jenin.
  • The attack was condemned across the political spectrum. Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “Our troops are operating on the ground now to settle accounts with the murders. We have already proven in recent months that we settle accounts with all murderers, without exception. Everyone who has attacked us is either in a grave or in prison. That will be the case here as well. I want to say to everyone who wishes to kill us, all options are open. We will continue to fight terrorism with full force and we will defeat it.”
  • National Security Minister Ben Gvir, visiting the site last night said, “The time has come for a military operation in Judea and Samaria. Yes, to resume targeted killings from the air, to bring buildings down, to set up roadblocks, to expel terrorists and to pass the death penalty for terrorists bill in its second and third readings.”
  • Leader of the Opposition Lapid commented, “Four people murdered and the heart breaks for the families and friends who have lost the most precious of all in an act of murderous and deliberate terrorism. I send my condolences and share in the families’ sorrow, and pray along with the entire Israeli public for healing and consolation. I strengthen the security forces that operate incessantly against terror and I trust them to find the murderers and their dispatchers.”

Context: This latest attack is further evidence of the proliferation of automatic weapons at the disposal of terrorists in the West Bank.

  • Overall 28 Israelis, the vast majority civilians have been killed in terror attacks this year, (compared to 20 this time last year). Over 130 Palestinians have been killed in the same period, the overwhelming majority being armed young men. However, yesterday a 15 year old Palestinian girl died as a result of injuries caused during the heavy exchange of fire in Jenin on Monday. She was the seventh victim, the other six were all gunmen.
  • These attacks, compounded by the weakness of the Palestinian Authority, have led to increased public calls for the IDF to launch an expanded operation in the West Bank.
  • The IDF leadership is currently opposed to launching a large-scale operation. This position is supported by the prime minister and defence minister. The top level security consultation held last night was restricted to an inner forum and excluded ministers Ben Gvir and Smotrich.
  • The IDF preference is to continue targeted raids against specific individuals based on intelligence.
  • However, some have argued that if a wider operation is inevitable, it is better to take the initiative and strike before there is a major terror attack.
  • The parallel often cited is Operation Defensive Shield in 2002. However, that operation largely focused on targeting suicide bomb making labs. With the exception of the IED (improvised explosive device) deployed on Monday in Jenin, the majority of the attacks have been committed by gunfire.
  • Right wing groups have also called to restore more internal West Bank checkpoints. However the army is not in favour as it harms non-combatant Palestinians and could instead create more static targets for terrorists.
  • There is also a widening disparity between the relative calm in some Palestinian cities like Ramallah, Hebron and Bethlehem and the lawlessness of Jenin and Nablus.
  • Hamas continues to favour calm and economic growth in the Gaza Strip, whilst fuelling incitement and violence in the West Bank.
  • The events of Monday’s operation in Jenin is still being reviewed. The IEDs planted on road that targeted military vehicles reflects Hezbollah tactics and a ‘Lebanonisation’ of the West Bank.

Looking ahead: In the first instance more IDF troops, in large numbers are being deployed across the West Bank, both in an effort to show a greater presence and reinforce the sense of security, also to prevent further vigilante violence by right-wing extremists.

June 23, 2023

Terror cell killed in UAV strike as settlers riot in West Bank

What happened: Three members of a Palestinian terrorist cell likely behind multiple recent shooting attacks were killed on Wednesday evening in an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) strike on their car in Jenin.

  • The cell had attempted a shooting at a checkpoint near the Jalame crossing earlier in the evening. Their car was then identified by IDF troops with corroboration from the Shin Bet security service, before both Defence Minister Yoav Gallant and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu authorised the aerial strike.
  • Three assault rifles were later found in the car, two of the dead were affiliated with Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and the third to Fatah’s Al-Aqsa Brigade.
  • Security and intelligence officials are working to establish if theirs is the same cell which carried out recent shootings at Shaked and Maale Gilboa (the latter beyond the West Bank security barrier in northern Israel) and the terror attack near Hermesh which killed Meir Tamari.
  • Elsewhere in the West Bank, Israeli settlers rioted in several locations in response to Tuesday’s killing of four Israelis by Hamas-affiliated terrorists near the West Bank settlement of Eli.
  • In the village of Luban a-Sharqiya, next door to the Jewish settlement of Beit Aryeh, young settlers set fire to at least 15 cars and smashed Palestinian shops.
  • After the funeral of terror victim Nahman Shmuel Mordof, around 200 youths entered the village of Turmus Aya, near Ramallah. Palestinian media reported 30 homes and 60 cars set alight. Further significant violence then ensued in the area of the Shilo junction, north of the village. Israel Police and Border Police officers, together with IDF troops, arrived to protect firefighters who came under attack whilst trying to stem the fires. One Palestinian was shot by Israeli forces.
  • In a further incident, video has emerged that shows masked settlers, accompanied by a dog, leaving a mosque in the Palestinian village of Urif, and one of them appearing to tear apart a Quran in the street outside.
  • So far the Shin Bet has arrested three Jews for the rioting in Palestinian villages.

Context: The strike on the Jenin cell is the first aerial strike by Israel in the West Bank since 2006. This represents a shifting of the tactical paradigm also seen in Monday’s raid on Jenin in which a helicopter gunship augmented fire in the West Bank for the first time in two decades.

  • Though the IDF is thought to have been reluctant to reintroduce UAV strikes now, the wounding of soldiers by an IED deployed by Palestinian militants during Monday’s IDF raid on Jenin shifted the calculus and made further incursions of ground troops more dangerous.
  • Netanyahu and Gallant spoke with the OC Southern Command in the wake of the Jenin operation and requested an alternative method. The Shin Bet concurred that aerial strikes were a viable possibility, despite the army’s continued objections.
  • Advancements in UAV technology since 2006 mean that such strikes can now be more surgically precise and in fact lessen the potential for civilian casualties compared with an incursion of ground troops.
  • The IDF was also quick to clarify publicly that “this was not a targeted killing; it was to defuse a threat.”
  • The military is also reluctant to pursue a larger anti-terror offensive in the West Bank, on the scale, say, of 2002’s Operation Defensive Shield. It prefers to continue its strategy, seen throughout Operation Breakwater, of targeted and intelligence-led operations.
  • Pressure for a wider operation is increasing from the political echelon, the commentariat, and sections of the public, however, with 147 “significant” terror attacks having already occurred in Israel and the West Bank this year, and with security forces have thwarted a further 375. There is a wide recognition that the post-Second Intifada status quo is now at an end, such is the rise of young, semi-autonomous West Bank terror groups and the parallel decline in the authority of the PA.
  • Most voluble in calling for a large-scale operation is National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who was excluded from the Security Cabinet meeting, as he was during last month’s clashes between Israel and PIJ in Gaza.
  • The IDF condemned the rioting in the West Bank strongly: “The IDF denounces these serious incidents of violence and arson. Incidents like this block the IDF and security forces from focusing on their main goal: defending the citizens of Israel and preventing terrorism.”
  • The IDF Spokesperson, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, later acknowledged that the army had “failed to prevent” the “very grave” incidents. Vowing improvement, Hagari condemned the violence as something that “… creates terror and escalation, and takes the population that isn’t involved in terror and pushes it there, while preventing the IDF from fighting terror in operational activities.”
  • There was condemnation, too, from across the political spectrum. In addition older settler also condemned the rioters, highlighting the coexistence that had existed between residents of Beit Aryeh and Luban a-Sharqiya.

Looking ahead: With the divergent views of the military and the political echelon on both the use of UAVs and a widening of the scope of Israeli West Bank counter-terror operations, it remains to be seen how Israel will next respond to the ever-deteriorating security situation in the West Bank.

  • In the wake of Hagari’s comments, the IDF will be under pressure to improve the speed and effectiveness of its response to any future settler rioting.

June 19, 2023

Heavy exchanges of fire in Jenin this morning

What happened: The IDF entered Jenin early this morning with the aim of arresting two wanted suspects.

  • Israeli media reported that one of the suspects included Azzam Abu al-Hjja, the son of a senior Hamas official, Jamal Abu al-Hija, who is imprisoned in Israel.
  • During the raid a massive exchange of fire took place between the forces and armed gunmen in the area.
  • In addition, explosive devices were thrown at an IDF armoured vehicle, with unconfirmed reports suggesting five or six soldiers were wounded.
  • In order to extricate the IDF troops a helicopter gunship was deployed targeting armed gunmen and allowing for evacuation of the injured troops.
  • According to Palestinian sources, three Palestinians were killed, with over thirty wounded.

Context: Helicopter gunships have not been deployed in combat in the West Bank since the Second Intifada, over twenty years ago.

  • It was not planned to be used in this morning’s operation, but was deemed a necessary response following the targeting of an IDF vehicles.
  • Palestinian sources claimed that powerful IEDs (improvised explosive devices) were planted in the ground beforehand and were detonated as the Israeli forces were leaving the area.
  • So far this year over 120 Palestinians have been killed, the vast majority armed combatants.
  • In parallel today, a delegation of senior Hamas officials, led by Ismail Haniyeh, are visiting Tehran and expected to meet with senior Iranian officials.

Wider regional threats: Speaking at yesterday’s weekly cabinet meeting Prime Minister Netanyahu once more highlighted that his government’s top priority is to “stop the nuclearisation of Iran.“

  • Netanyahu reiterated that he has expressed his opposition to US officials that any agreement, “will only pave Iran’s way to a bomb and line its pockets with hundreds of billions of dollars.”
  • Adding, “We have also told them that the most limited understandings, what are termed ‘mini-agreements’, do not, in our view, serve the goal and we are opposed to them as well. In any case, we have made it clear, and I reiterate, the State of Israel will do whatever it needs to, with its own means, to defend itself from Iranian aggression both in the nuclear sphere and, of course, through its use of terrorist proxies.”
  • On Friday, Minister of Defence Yoav Gallant met with US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin in Brussels. The meeting focused on improving military cooperation between the two countries.
  • In the background the New York Times has been reporting that the US is looking to reach an unofficial and unwritten agreement with Iran. According to the understandings:
    • Iran will undertake not to enrich uranium beyond 60%.
    • Not to attack US assets in or Iraq.
    • Not to sell ballistic missiles to Russia.
    • In return, the US will refrain from imposing stricter sanctions and will unfreeze Iranian assets worth billions of dollars.
    • The US also expects Iran to reinstate monitoring of Iranian nuclear sites.
  • From Israel’s perspective any deal that does not dismantle Iran’s nuclear capacity leaves them as a potential threshold nuclear state.
  • Israel is also concerned that if Iran receives the reported 20 billion dollars from their frozen assets, some of the money will go to Hezbollah, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

Looking ahead: Operation Breakwater, launched two years, is likely to continue its regular incursions into the West Bank, in the absence of Palestinian Authority security forces’ ability to combat extremist elements.

  • US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf will visit the region this week and is expected to meet Israeli, Palestinian Authority and Jordanian officials.
  • Following the Gallant – Austin meeting, more joint miliary exercises between the IDF and US Central Command are expected to take place.
  • Gallant and Austin also agreed to increase intelligence cooperation relating to Iran.

June 14, 2023

IDF releases report on the soldiers killed on Egyptian border 

What happened: The IDF published findings from an investigation that followed the killing of three soldiers by an Egyptian policeman ten days ago.

  • The IDF concluded that several contributing factors led to the attack: an easily opened small emergency gate on the border barrier which was unknown to troops stationed in the area; an over-prioritisation of drug smuggling incidents; and excessively lengthy guard shifts.
  • IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi said that the army “conducted an exhaustive and in-depth investigation,” and along “with quality work, initiative and successes” also found “operational and command faults and gaps.”
  • The chief of the IDF’s Southern Command, Maj. Gen. Eliezer Toledano, who probed the troops’ conduct said that “The special security passage was viewed by us as a hidden passage…” and “not updating the soldiers on this passage was a systemic failure.” He emphasised that this was a failure that lasted for several years, which unfortunately this incident brought to the fore.”
  • While the army determined that it was essential to deploy soldiers in the region due to smuggling attempts and a large number of Israeli travellers, the report stated that splitting the soldiers into pairs, as well as the overly long duration of their defence missions – 12 hours – had to be considered and conducted differently. The IDF also said that no faults were found in the actions of the troops who had been killed.
  • In its statement, the IDF noted that it would “refine the order of priorities established for the readiness for terror incidents and the readiness to deal with the frequent threat of smuggling in this area.”
  • The IDF also determined that two commanders bore some responsibility. While Col. Ido Sa’ad, the commander of the Paran Brigade, acted correctly in engaging with and killing the Egyptian attacker, he was considered to “overall responsibility for the event and the manner by which operations are carried out in his area.” Sa’ad will thus be dismissed from his role and moved to another position within the IDF. Lt. Col. Ivan Kon, the commander of the Bardelas Battalion, will be formally reprimanded for his “responsibility for the implementation of the operating concept in his forces.”

Context: This is the first time in over 20 years that a brigade commander has been relieved of his post over an operational incident.

  • The IDF report noted a series of operational errors and a failure to follow protocol.  The sense within the IDF is that improvements will be made to operational discipline and training for combat soldiers.
  • Relative to other fronts, the 230km border with Egypt is considered relatively peaceful.  Israel and Egypt enjoy high level security cooperation, primarily focused on the shared threat of Islamist extremists, as well as coordination on their policy towards Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
  • The incident on the 3rd June occurred when an Egyptian policeman entered Israeli territory through an emergency crossing in the border fence, subsequently killing Sergeant Lia Ben Nun and Staff Sgt. Ori Yitzhak Iluz. The last time anyone in the army heard from Ben Nun and Illouz was at 4:15 A.M. At 7:13 A.M., shots were heard in the area, yet the dead soldiers weren’t found until 9 A.M., by their platoon commander. Several hours later, during a firefight, the policemen also killed Staff Sgt. Ohad Dahan, before being shot dead himself.
  • While few casualties have occurred along the Israel-Egypt border in recent years, the area is considered a key route for drug smugglers which the IDF actively tries to prevent and the incident took place after a large smuggling operation was thwarted not far from the site of the attack.
  • Sinai-based terrorists carried out multiple attacks against Israel in 2011 and 2012. In one multi-staged attack in August 2011, six Israeli civilians, an IDF soldier, and a counter-terrorism police officer were killed, as well as five Egyptian soldiers.
  • The Egyptian border is patrolled by the Bardelas and Caracal; mixed-gender light infantry battalions part of the IDF’s Border Defence Corps, in the Southern Command.
  • Maj. Gen. Nimrod Aloni, who is due to assume the position of head of the IDF’s Depth Corps and Military Colleges, will head a team that will investigate the “systemic” failures that contributed to the deadly attack. His team is due to “examine the operational and systemic perception of defence of peaceful borders.”

May 14, 2023

Egyptian brokered ceasefire comes into effect

The Ceasefire

  • An Egyptian-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) went into effect from 10.00pm last night.
  • Rocket fire emanated from the Gaza Strip around an hour after, followed by Israeli strikes in response, but as of this morning the truce seems to be holding.
  • Text of the ceasefire reads: “The two sides will abide by… an end to targeting civilians, house demolition, an end to targeting individuals immediately…”
  • Israeli National Security Council Director Tzachi Hanegbi “thanked Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and expressed the appreciation of the State of Israel for Egypt’s intensive efforts to secure a ceasefire. The NSC Director made it clear that Israel’s acceptance of the Egyptian initiative means that ‘quiet will be met with quiet’, and that if Israel is attacked or threatened, it will continue to do everything that it needs to in order to defend itself.”
  • PIJ spokesman Dawoud Shehab, meanwhile, announced that the group “declare our acceptance of the Egyptian announcement and we will abide by it as long as the occupation (Israel) abides by it.”
  • Meanwhile, in a televised press statement, PIJ leader Ziyad al-Nakhalah thanked Iran, Hezbollah, Qatar, and Egypt for their support during the conflict.
  • Hamas, which although keen to avoid direct entanglement in the conflict has played a more collaborative role with PIJ then in previous recent campaigns, praised the “Palestinian Resistance Factions for defending the Palestinian people against the most recent Israeli aggression against the Gaza Strip.” Tellingly, it referenced explicitly the Joint Operations Room it operated alongside PIJ.
  • PIJ, for its part, praised the solidarity of all wings of the Palestinian movement, but did not name Hamas.
  • UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said: “I welcome the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and militant factions in Gaza, brokered by Egypt. The ceasefire must now be honoured to prevent the loss of further civilian life. The UK will support all efforts to promote dialogue and create a pathway towards sustainable peace.”
  • News of the ceasefire was also welcomed by both White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Tor Wennesland.
  • Hamas has announced a full return to normal in the Gaza Strip, while Israel will gradually relax restrictions imposed on the strip today. The Erez crossing reopened at 8:00 and Kerem Shalom 11:00, enabling the return to work in Israel of the 18,000 Gazans in possession of work permits. Coastal waters have also been reopened.
  • Domestically, closed Israeli roads have reopened this morning, though schools will remain shut today in Ashkelon and on the Gaza periphery.

Operation Shield and Arrow in summary

  • According to IDF figures, some 1234 rockets were launched at Israel from Gaza during the last week.
    • 976 crossed over into Israel.
    • 221 landed in Gaza.
    • 373 were intercepted by Iron Dome.
  • The rocket fire caused two civilian deaths in Israel:
    • 80-year-old Inga Avramyan was killed when the ceiling of her Rehovot apartment collapsed following a direct hit last Thursday. According to Avramyan’s grandson, she was killed trying to help her paralysed husband reach shelter.
    • A Gazan construction worker was killed yesterday when a rocket hit the border moshav of Shokeda where he was working. A fellow Palestinian construction worker and an Israeli Bedouin were also injured, the former seriously.
  • Israel struck 371 terrorist targets, including targeted assassinations of senior PIJ leaders, PIJ command posts, rocket facilities, and attack tunnels.
  • On Friday, a sixth senior PIJ leader was killed by a targeted Israeli strike. Iyad al-Hassani, PIJ’s director of operations, a veteran of the al-Quds Brigades, and a prominent figure in attacks on Israelis during the Second Intifada, died alongside his assistant in a strike on the Nasser neighbourhood of Gaza City.
  • Al-Hassani is the latest and perhaps final senior PIJ figure to be killed in Operation Arrow and Shield, joining Jahed Ahnam (Military Council Secretary), Khalil Bahitini (Senior Operational Officer in Gaza), Tarek Az Aldin (Senior Operative and Coordinator of Terrorism in Gaza and the West Bank), Ali Ghassan Ghali (PIJ Rocket Unit Commander), and Ahmad Abu Deka (PIJ Rocket Unit Deputy Commander)
  • Overall, 33 Palestinians have died during the fighting over the past week: 10 were civilians, most of whom were family members of the three senior PIJ figures killed in the operation’s opening stages.
  • IDF data suggests that a further four civilians were killed by misfiring PIJ rockets, which also caused at least 23 injuries.
  • According to Palestinian media, a child, Tamim Daud, died from a heart attack brought on by the fighting.

From the commentators

  • Yossi Yehoshua in Yediot Ahronot: “If [the ceasefire holds] … one can say that Operation Shield and Arrow was one of the most successful IDF and GSS operations to have been carried out in the Gaza Strip. Islamic Jihad was dealt a painful blow, possibly the most painful it has been dealt by Israel to date. It lost most of its top commanders in precision targeted killing operations that were carried out in the opening strike last week, and it continued to lose more top commanders amid the ongoing fighting. Islamic Jihad also found itself hard put to launch significant barrages of rocket fire on Israel that caused extensive damage… The way in which the operation ended can also be chalked up as a partial Israeli achievement. The IDF wanted to conclude this round of fighting as quickly as possible, as did the Israeli political leadership, and to capitalise on the fact that Egypt and Hamas were in favour of a ceasefire. Iran pressured Islamic Jihad into continuing the fight for as long as possible, and that pressure yielded results for five days—but not more than that. Islamic Jihad has emerged from this operation battered and bruised. Furthermore, taking a broader view of things, its patrons in Tehran also suffered a blow, one that arrived at a good time from Israel’s perspective given the Iranians recent brazenness.”
  • Yoav Limor in Israel Hayom: “Israel would have run the risk of eroding [its] achievements as the operation ran longer. The number of high-quality targets would have grown smaller, and the chances of making a mistake would have risen (as would the chances of Islamic Jihad chalking up an operational success either by means of high trajectory rocket fire or anti-tank rocket fire at a chance target). With the passage of more time, Hamas also could have found itself painted into a corner. Currently, it enjoys the fact that Islamic Jihad’s capabilities have been eroded—namely, the group that poses a domestic challenge to it has been made weaker—but the closed border crossings and the subsequent fuel shortage and ongoing suspension of Gazans’ access to their jobs in Israel would have produced public pressure on it to solve the suffocating situation. To avert that, Hamas acted behind the scenes to advance a ceasefire agreement.”
  • Amos Harel in Haaretz: “the key to a cease-fire wasn’t necessarily in Israel’s hands. It’s possible that Islamic Jihad learned from the previous round, which lasted three days in August of last year during Operation Breaking Dawn, and decided it was worthwhile to continue the clash for a bit longer. Even if it failed to cause multiple Israeli casualties, the fact that it was able to continue and hold out for a while in a confrontation with the IDF could be considered an achievement… What Islamic Jihad wasn’t able to do was to drag other organizations into the scuffle or to bring about clashes in other arenas around Israel. Hamas was comfortable, at least to a certain degree, that Islamic Jihad clashed with Israel and exacted a toll on it. Until Saturday, there weren’t any signs that the larger organisation intended to take an active part in the fighting. This could have happened, especially if many Palestinian civilians became casualties as the operation continued. There were no signs of a violent escalation in Jerusalem, the West Bank, near the borders of Lebanon and or in areas near the Green Line.”

May 14, 2023

Egyptian-brokered ceasefire comes into effect

The Ceasefire

  • An Egyptian-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) went into effect from 10.00pm last night.
  • Rocket fire emanated from the Gaza Strip around an hour after, followed by Israeli strikes in response, but as of this morning the truce seems to be holding.
  • Text of the ceasefire reads: “The two sides will abide by… an end to targeting civilians, house demolition, an end to targeting individuals immediately…”
  • Israeli National Security Council Director Tzachi Hanegbi “thanked Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and expressed the appreciation of the State of Israel for Egypt’s intensive efforts to secure a ceasefire. The NSC Director made it clear that Israel’s acceptance of the Egyptian initiative means that ‘quiet will be met with quiet’, and that if Israel is attacked or threatened, it will continue to do everything that it needs to in order to defend itself.”
  • PIJ spokesman Dawoud Shehab, meanwhile, announced that the group “declare our acceptance of the Egyptian announcement and we will abide by it as long as the occupation (Israel) abides by it.”
  • Meanwhile, in a televised press statement, PIJ leader Ziyad al-Nakhalah thanked Iran, Hezbollah, Qatar, and Egypt for their support during the conflict.
  • Hamas, which although keen to avoid direct entanglement in the conflict has played a more collaborative role with PIJ then in previous recent campaigns, praised the “Palestinian Resistance Factions for defending the Palestinian people against the most recent Israeli aggression against the Gaza Strip.” Tellingly, it referenced explicitly the Joint Operations Room it operated alongside PIJ.
  • PIJ, for its part, praised the solidarity of all wings of the Palestinian movement, but did not name Hamas.
  • UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said: “I welcome the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and militant factions in Gaza, brokered by Egypt. The ceasefire must now be honoured to prevent the loss of further civilian life. The UK will support all efforts to promote dialogue and create a pathway towards sustainable peace.”
  • News of the ceasefire was also welcomed by both White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Tor Wennesland.
  • Hamas has announced a full return to normal in the Gaza Strip, while Israel will gradually relax restrictions imposed on the strip today. The Erez crossing reopened at 8:00 and Kerem Shalom 11:00, enabling the return to work in Israel of the 18,000 Gazans in possession of work permits. Coastal waters have also been reopened.
  • Domestically, closed Israeli roads have reopened this morning, though schools will remain shut today in Ashkelon and on the Gaza periphery.

Operation Shield and Arrow in summary

  • According to IDF figures, some 1234 rockets were launched at Israel from Gaza during the last week.
    • 976 crossed over into Israel.
    • 221 landed in Gaza.
    • 373 were intercepted by Iron Dome.
  • The rocket fire caused two civilian deaths in Israel:
    • 80-year-old Inga Avramyan was killed when the ceiling of her Rehovot apartment collapsed following a direct hit last Thursday. According to Avramyan’s grandson, she was killed trying to help her paralysed husband reach shelter.
    • A Gazan construction worker was killed yesterday when a rocket hit the border moshav of Shokeda where he was working. A fellow Palestinian construction worker and an Israeli Bedouin were also injured, the former seriously.
  • Israel struck 371 terrorist targets, including targeted assassinations of senior PIJ leaders, PIJ command posts, rocket facilities, and attack tunnels.
  • On Friday, a sixth senior PIJ leader was killed by a targeted Israeli strike. Iyad al-Hassani, PIJ’s director of operations, a veteran of the al-Quds Brigades, and a prominent figure in attacks on Israelis during the Second Intifada, died alongside his assistant in a strike on the Nasser neighbourhood of Gaza City.
  • Al-Hassani is the latest and perhaps final senior PIJ figure to be killed in Operation Arrow and Shield, joining Jahed Ahnam (Military Council Secretary), Khalil Bahitini (Senior Operational Officer in Gaza), Tarek Az Aldin (Senior Operative and Coordinator of Terrorism in Gaza and the West Bank), Ali Ghassan Ghali (PIJ Rocket Unit Commander), and Ahmad Abu Deka (PIJ Rocket Unit Deputy Commander)
  • Overall, 33 Palestinians have died during the fighting over the past week: 10 were civilians, most of whom were family members of the three senior PIJ figures killed in the operation’s opening stages.
  • IDF data suggests that a further four civilians were killed by misfiring PIJ rockets, which also caused at least 23 injuries.
  • According to Palestinian media, a child, Tamim Daud, died from a heart attack brought on by the fighting.

From the commentators

  • Yossi Yehoshua in Yediot Ahronot: “If [the ceasefire holds] … one can say that Operation Shield and Arrow was one of the most successful IDF and GSS operations to have been carried out in the Gaza Strip. Islamic Jihad was dealt a painful blow, possibly the most painful it has been dealt by Israel to date. It lost most of its top commanders in precision targeted killing operations that were carried out in the opening strike last week, and it continued to lose more top commanders amid the ongoing fighting. Islamic Jihad also found itself hard put to launch significant barrages of rocket fire on Israel that caused extensive damage… The way in which the operation ended can also be chalked up as a partial Israeli achievement. The IDF wanted to conclude this round of fighting as quickly as possible, as did the Israeli political leadership, and to capitalise on the fact that Egypt and Hamas were in favour of a ceasefire. Iran pressured Islamic Jihad into continuing the fight for as long as possible, and that pressure yielded results for five days—but not more than that. Islamic Jihad has emerged from this operation battered and bruised. Furthermore, taking a broader view of things, its patrons in Tehran also suffered a blow, one that arrived at a good time from Israel’s perspective given the Iranians recent brazenness.”
  • Yoav Limor in Israel Hayom: “Israel would have run the risk of eroding [its] achievements as the operation ran longer. The number of high-quality targets would have grown smaller, and the chances of making a mistake would have risen (as would the chances of Islamic Jihad chalking up an operational success either by means of high trajectory rocket fire or anti-tank rocket fire at a chance target). With the passage of more time, Hamas also could have found itself painted into a corner. Currently, it enjoys the fact that Islamic Jihad’s capabilities have been eroded—namely, the group that poses a domestic challenge to it has been made weaker—but the closed border crossings and the subsequent fuel shortage and ongoing suspension of Gazans’ access to their jobs in Israel would have produced public pressure on it to solve the suffocating situation. To avert that, Hamas acted behind the scenes to advance a ceasefire agreement.”
  • Amos Harel in Haaretz: “the key to a cease-fire wasn’t necessarily in Israel’s hands. It’s possible that Islamic Jihad learned from the previous round, which lasted three days in August of last year during Operation Breaking Dawn, and decided it was worthwhile to continue the clash for a bit longer. Even if it failed to cause multiple Israeli casualties, the fact that it was able to continue and hold out for a while in a confrontation with the IDF could be considered an achievement… What Islamic Jihad wasn’t able to do was to drag other organizations into the scuffle or to bring about clashes in other arenas around Israel. Hamas was comfortable, at least to a certain degree, that Islamic Jihad clashed with Israel and exacted a toll on it. Until Saturday, there weren’t any signs that the larger organisation intended to take an active part in the fighting. This could have happened, especially if many Palestinian civilians became casualties as the operation continued. There were no signs of a violent escalation in Jerusalem, the West Bank, near the borders of Lebanon and or in areas near the Green Line.”

May 12, 2023

Rehovot apartment hit

What Happened: A night of quiet followed a further day of mass rocket barrages on Israel from Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in the Gaza Strip.

  • The day’s rocket fire ended at around 10.00pm last night, a last barrage fired at the Western Negev following some directed at the greater Tel Aviv area an hour or so earlier.
  • Following Wednesday’s direct hits on homes in Sderot and Ashkelon, yesterday’s most damaging impact came in the central Israeli town of Rehovot, where an elderly civilian was killed, and 12 others suffered injury or shock when a rocket hit an apartment complex.
  • Yesterday’s events bring the total this week, as of this morning, to 866 rockets fired from Gaza towards Israel.
  • Of these, 672 crossed into Israeli territory, with 194 falling either in Gaza or the Mediterranean Sea.
  • The Iron Dome defence system has intercepted 260 rockets whose trajectory showed a likely hit on populated areas, for a success rate of 91%. Its failure to intercept the crudely manufactured rocket which hit Rehovot has been blamed on a technical malfunction.

Israel continues targeting of PIJ figures

  • Late Thursday and early Friday, Israel continued its targeted attacks on PIJ facilities and senior figures in Gaza in Operation Shield and Arrow.
  • Following the killing of commander of PIJ rocket units Ali Ghassan Ghali in an apartment in Khan Yunis in the early hours of Thursday morning, his deputy, Ahmad Abu Deka, was killed in an airstrike in the southern Gaza town of Bani Suheila, near Khan Younis, yesterday afternoon.
  • In a statement, the IDF stressed Abu Deka’s direct responsibility for recent rocket fire, particularly that targeted at Sderot, and also recalled his crucial involvement in civilian-targeting campaigns during Operation Guardian of the Walls and Operation Breaking Dawn.
  • IDF spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagarai confirmed that Abu Deka’s location had been known for two days before he was targeted, as the military waited for him to be separated from his family.
  • Also on Thursday, the IDF struck a PIJ attack tunnel dug up to Israel’s security barrier with the Gaza Strip. The tunnel was, until August 2022, operated by senior PIJ figure Khaled Mansour, killed during Operation Breaking Dawn.
  • Also on Thursday, the IDF struck PIJ rocket launchers, and a mortar launcher in Rafah, shortly after their use for the launching of attacks on Israel.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu and Israel’s security chiefs held a security briefing Thursday night at the IDF’s Kirya military headquarters in Tel Aviv. Israeli media cited a message from the Prime Minister’s office that that Israel would “continue to exact a heavy price from Islamic Jihad for its aggression against Israel’s citizens.” 

Context: the death of the Israeli civilian in Rehovot is the first during Operation Shield and Arrow.

  • Israel has struck 170 terrorist targets, killing 16 terrorists in the process.
  • The IDF is following a similar strategic policy seen in last August’s Operation Breaking Dawn: striking at meticulously verified PIJ targets in Gaza whilst seeking to avoid an escalation with Hamas.
  • Similarities are also evident with November 2019’s Operation Black Belt and May 2021’s Operation Guardian of the Walls, with Yediot Ahronot commentator Yossi Yehoshua this morning noting that the success of these previous operations can be seen in PIJ’s decreased steep-trajectory rocket capability this time.
  • While Hamas is known to have provided cooperation and approval for the PIJ rocket campaign greater than that seen during Operation Breaking Dawn, Israel has continued a policy of distinction between the two terror groups.
  • Hamas personnel and facilities have not been targeted, and the Gazan terrorist organisation is unlikely to seek to provoke a protracted escalation of hostilities with Israel at this time. As the Strip’s governing authority, it fears the economic impact of the isolation a longer conflict would impose on the enclave, while 18,000 Gazans rely on working in Israel, a right suspended during conflict.
  • Israel has also sought to contain hostilities to the Gaza Strip, and not to allow spill over to the West Bank. In parallel with the Gazan front, therefore, Israel has in recent days arrested some 25 PIJ terrorist operatives in the West Bank. Among them are several associates of Tarek Az Aldin, PIJ’s terror coordinator for the West Bank, who was killed in a strike on Tuesday.
  • There are concerns over Iron Dome’s ability to cope with so sustained a demand. Despite its impressive interception rate, the failure to intercept the rocket in Rehovot follows a similar technical malfunction last week which saw rockets hit in Sderot, wounding three foreign nationals.

Who is PIJ: Established in the Gaza Strip in the 1980s PIJ’s aim is the annihilation of the State of Israel by force and the imposition of Islamic law.

  • As their aims conform to Iranian goals, they receive most of their funding from Tehran.
  • When Hamas took over the Gaza Strip in 2007, PIJ enjoyed almost complete freedom of action, and managed to grow in size to some 20,000 operatives.
  • In addition to their Gazan operations, they have cells and infrastructure in the West Bank, particularly in the Jenin area, as seen with the arrests of the 25 operatives.
  • Iran supplies the organisation with both financial support and weapons and training.
  • Following the US killing of IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani, then leader of PIJ Ramadan Shalah visited Iran to pledge allegiance.
  • Among its senior operatives killed in strikes this week have been:
    • Jahed Ahnam – Military Council Secretary
    • Khalil Bahitini – Senior Operational Officer of the Islamic Jihad in Gaza
    • Tarek Az Aldin – Senior Operative and Coordinator of Terrorism in Gaza and the West Bank
    • Ali Ghassan Ghali – PIJ Rocket Unit Commander
    • Ahmad Abu Deka – PIJ Rocket Unit Deputy Commander

Prospects for a ceasefire: a night of quiet has increased optimism for the chances of an Egyptian-brokered ceasefire.

  • Israeli reports overnight indicated that negotiations had been resumed and Egyptian mediators were said to be optimistic about the chances of achieving a truce.
  • While some reports have suggested that PIJ is eager for a ceasefire, its previous modus operandi is to have inflicted greater civilian suffering before agreeing to a truce.
  • Israel, meanwhile, is likely to want to have sufficiently degraded PIJ capabilities before agreeing to a ceasefire.

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