Netanyahu dismisses “delusional” Hamas proposal

Hostage deal: Israeli and US officials have commented publicly on Hamas’s counter-proposal to the latest hostage deal.

• Prime Minister Netanyahu described Hamas’s demands as “delusional”. He added that “ongoing military pressure is a necessary condition for freeing the hostages.”
• “Surrender to the… demands made by Hamas, which we’ve now heard, not only won’t bring about the hostages’ release, it will only invite another massacre; it will invite a terrible disaster on the State of Israel that not a single one of our citizens is prepared to accept.”
• Defence Minister Gallant said that Hamas’s position would “lead to an extension of the war, and our troops to additional places in Gaza, soon.”
• US Secretary of State Blinken, on a visit to Israel, was more circumspect, saying that “while there are some clear nonstarters in Hamas response, we think it creates space for an agreement to be reached and we’ll work at that relentlessly till we get there.”
• Blinken “made clear that Israel is fully justified in confronting Hamas and other terrorist organisations – that’s why the US has done more than any other country to support Israel right to ensure October 7 doesn’t happen again,” he said.
• Blinken also said that during his discussions with Netanyahu he raised “profound concerns about actions and rhetoric, including from government officials, that inflame tension and undercut international support and place greater strains on Israel’s security.”
• The “hostages have been dehumanised every day since,” their capture, he said, “but that’s not a license to dehumanise others.”
• On aid, while recognising that Israel has acted so that “more assistance today than ever is moving into Gaza from more places than any time since October 7,” Blinken also said that the US “calls on Israel to open Erez crossing in northern Gaza, expedite flow of aid from Jordan, strengthen de-confliction and improve coordination with humanitarian providers, and must ensure delivery of life-saving assistance is not blocked for any reason by anyone.”

Gaza: Israeli troops have captured dozens of suspected terrorists in western Khan Yunis over the past 24 hours, including two who took part in the October 7^th massacre.

• Elsewhere in the city, 20 Hamas members were killed in an Israeli offensive against a Hamas site.

West Bank: A wanted Palestinian was killed during a military operation in the Nur al-Shams refugee camp in the West Bank. According to the IDF, the casualty is Muazzam Ali, a “senior activist” in the camp, who was suspected of shooting at Israeli forces and involvement in terrorist activity.

• A Palestinian gunmen was also shot dead after opening fire at Israeli troops near the West Bank town of Dayr Sharaf.
• Two more Palestinians were injured, potentially by the assailant’s gunfire. No troops were injured, though one was hit on the helmet by a bullet.

Context: According to Reuters and Israeli media reports, Hamas proposed a three-stage ceasefire/hostage release plan, each stage lasting 45 days (for more details on the Hamas response, see yesterday’s BICOM Morning Brief):

• Haaretz reports today that Hamas is also seeking to link the hostage release to demands over the protocol for Jewish entry to Jerusalem’s Temple Mount complex.
• Hamas’s proposed amendments to the hostage deal proposal also aim to provide explicitly for the end of the war.
• According to a draft document seen by Reuters¸ implementation of the second phase of hostage releases would not happen until “indirect talks over the requirements needed to end the mutual military operations and return to complete calm” had been held.
• With Israel continuing to insist that no deal will be reached that provides explicitly for the end of the war before the defeat of Hamas, the US and Qatar are now expected to apply pressure to Hamas in a bid to force it to scale back its demands.
• Israel maintains that the best way to force Hamas to do this is through maintaining the military pressure in Gaza.
• Despite differences within the security cabinet, if a reasonable deal is ultimately agreed, it is thought that a majority of the ministers will vote in favour of it, including the prime minister.
• Blinken’s remarks, during a press conference in Tel Aviv, were perhaps the most publicly critical of Israel he has been since October 7.
• This morning, Blinken met with war cabinet ministers Gantz and Eisenkot and separately with Opposition Chair Yair Lapid. The Biden Administration has maintained close connections with both Gantz’s National Unity Party and Lapid’s Yesh Atid – a response, some argue, to their frustrations with Netanyahu.
• Blinken also met with Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas, the two discussing, said Blinken, “the benefits of revitalising the Palestinian Authority.” The US has long maintained its preference for a technocratic and reformed PA playing a major role in a post-Hamas Gaza.
• Israel is concerned about escalation in West Bank, especially in the lead up to Ramadan.
• On Tuesday, Israeli National Security Council chairman Hanegbi, Shin Bet head Ronen Bar, and COGAT chief Alian met with PA intelligence head Majed Faraj and Civil Affairs Minister Hussein al-Sheikh.
• Although ostensibly a secret meeting, details have emerged of their discussion. The military and intelligence echelons argue that economic instability is degrading the authority of the PA and increasing the security risks emanating from the West Bank. Therefore, The Times of Israel quotes a senior diplomat saying that the Israelis said “they would take a number of steps to address the situation, including reducing the number of checkpoints, reducing the number of arrest raids, allowing a subset of several thousand workers above the age of 45 to return to their jobs in Israel and reopening several Palestinian cities to Arab Israelis.”
• While Gallant is thought to concur with the military, security, and intelligence heads, support for the PA has been opposed by some in the political echelon, who point to the PA’s refusal to formally condemn October 7^th and its continued incitement of terror. (For a full analysis of the range of Israeli thinking on this issue, see BICOM’s recent research paper “The West Bank in the Shadow of October 7”.)

Looking ahead: Egyptian reports suggest that a new round of talks will begin today, as part of the negotiation efforts towards a hostage release deal.

• An Israeli offensive in Rafah remains likely, Netanyahu confirming that “we’ve instructed the IDF to prepare also to operate in Rafah and in two camps in the centre, the last strongholds Hamas has left. Here too, when the time comes, the IDF will act in compliance with international law and will allow the [civilian] population safe passage out of the war zones.”
• Saudi Arabia will today host a summit of foreign ministers from Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, in a bid to craft a unified Arab position on the war and the post-war situation in Gaza.

What’s happened: After a nearly two-week delay, Hamas has finally responded to the latest proposed hostage deal.

• According to Reuters and Israeli media reports Hamas has proposed a three-stage ceasefire plan, each lasting 45 days:
  • Stage one would see all Israeli female hostages, males under 19, the elderly and sick released in exchange for Palestinian women and minors still held in Israeli prisons. Israel would allow for the reconstruction of hospitals, with the IDF withdrawing from populated areas of the Strip.
  • In the second phase, all Israeli male hostages would be released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
  • In the third stage, Hamas would release the bodies and remains, presumably in exchange for more prisoners.
• According to Reuters, Hamas added “an addendum to the proposal that it wished for the release of 1500 prisoners, a third of whom it wanted to select from the a list of Palestinians handed life sentences by Israel.”
• Israel’s Prime Minister Office confirmed that the Mossad had received Hamas’s response through Qatari mediators and was reviewing the proposal.
• US President Joe Biden responded by calling Hamas’s answer “a little over the top.”
• According to the latest IDF assessment, at least 31 of the 136 hostages held in Gaza are no longer alive. According to the New York Times, another 20 have also been killed.
• Inside Gaza, the IDF continues to operate in Khan Yunis in the south as well as in the north of the Strip.
• On Tuesday, the IDF Spokesperson Hagari gave a progress report on the subterranean operations underneath Khan Yunis, declaring,  “there are not many compounds left and we have reached most of them.”
• He also revealed that IDF forces found intelligence material, “indicating a direct ‘connection’ from Iran to Hamas and more so – to Yahya Sinwar. We found official Hamas documents from 2020 detailing the funds transferred by Iran between the years 2014 and 2020 to Hamas and to Sinwar. More than one hundred and fifty million dollars were transferred from Iran to Hamas. This is another example of how Iran exports terror across the Middle East.”
• He added, “In the same subterranean space, we also found a safe with banknotes and bags containing more than twenty million shekels in cash.”

Context: It took Hamas almost two weeks to respond to the proposal reached under the auspices of the director of the CIA, alongside the head of the Mossad, the head of Egyptian intelligence and the Qatari prime minister in Paris at the end of January.  (Read more details of the original proposed deal here).

• As anticipated, Hamas is looking to secure the release of heavyweight Palestinian terrorists responsible for the murder of Israelis. Whilst the hostage families and their supporters demand a deal at any price, others in Israel are concerned for the longer term effect of releasing unrepentant murders. Families of victims are likely to raise an appeal against their release.
• With no agreement on the hostage deal, Prime Minister Netanyahu continues to reinforce his message that the war will not end until Israel achieves “total victory.”
• As the combat continues, earlier this week Netanyahu said that 18 out of 24 Hamas battalions have been destroyed.
• Similarly, Defence Minister Gallant shared his assessment that “about half” of the Hamas fighting corps have been killed or seriously wounded.
• Although precise numbers are unclear, it is estimated that there were between 25,000-30,000 Hamas fighters before October 7^th.
• According to the Hamas controlled health ministry in Gaza, over 27,000 Palestinians have been killed. However these figures do not distinguish between civilians and combatants and cannot be independently verified. Furthermore, the circumstances of the deaths of all those killed are not clear, with some thought to have died when Hamas rockets misfired and landed inside Gaza.
• The IDF announced another officer was killed in combat on Tuesday, taking the toll since the launch of the ground operation to 226 IDF personnel.
• There are calls among Israeli leaders to change the mechanism for delivering aid into Gaza, as more evidence suggests Hamas maintains the ability to controls the aid and its distribution.
• US Secretary of State arrived in Israel on Tuesday night and is expected to hold meetings over the next couple of days with Israeli leaders as well as visit the West Bank.
• Following his visit to Saudi Arabia, Blinken said, “the Saudi Crown Prince once again announced Saudi Arabia’s great interest in continuing the normalisation process with Israel”.

Looking ahead: Blinken will meet today with Prime Minister Netanyahu, President Herzog, Defence Minister Gallant and other senior Israeli officials.

• Following Gallant’s announcement, there is anticipation that the IDF would extend the ground operations to the southern most town of Rafah on the Egyptian border.
• However, it is possible that this was more of a threat to induce Hamas to accept the terms of the prisoner deal.
• There is speculation that the senior Hamas leadership is hiding out in the Rafah area, but any ground operation would require the movement of over a million Gazans who have fled south and risk fracturing Israeli-Egyptian ties.

Hostage/Prisoner exchange: Hamas sources said over the weekend the group was still debating the cease-fire and hostage-release deal proposal.

• According to the Hamas-affiliated Al-Aqsa channel, Hamas is deliberating with “all the representatives from the different factions and organisations in the Palestinian sphere” to promote Palestinian national interests, the first of which is “stopping the [Israeli] aggression, rehabilitating the Gaza Strip, and releasing the prisoners.”
• The Saudi network Al-Arabiya, however, reported that Hamas has rejected the Israeli proposal for a hostage deal and is demanding that the number of Palestinian prisoners Israel releases be increased. According to the report, Israel is opposed to the demand.
• When asked about progress on potential hostage deals, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on ABC’s This Week programme that “I can’t say it’s imminent, but ultimately these kinds of negotiations unfold somewhat slowly until they unfold very quickly. And so it’s difficult to put a precise timetable on when something might come together or frankly if something might come together. But sitting here today I cannot tell you it’s right around the corner.”
• In an interview on NBC’s Meet the Press programme, he said: “At this point, it’s up to Hamas to come forward and respond to a serious proposal, and we will continue to press Qatar and Egypt to try and generate a positive response,” he said. “What we’re pushing for is an outcome where every hostage returns home and Hamas in no longer in charge of Gaza… Everybody wants an end to the war, no one wants the war to continue. But for this to happen, all the hostages need to come home and Hamas needs to no longer pose a threat to Israel.”
• On CBS’ Face the Nation, Sullivan said the US “has been clear that we have to look out for and respond to the immense and terrible suffering of the Palestinian people. And that means pressing Israel on issues related to the humanitarian assistance that we have helped unlock and get into the Gaza Strip and there needs to be much more of it.” 

Gaza Strip: The IDF said it raided a central command centre of Hamas’ Khan Younis division where it located the office Mohammad Sinwar, brother of Hamas leader in Gaza.

• IDF forces also raided a central outpost of the division, which was used to train terrorists that participated in the October 7 attacks. The outpost had models of Kibbutz entrances, IDF bases and armed vehicles.
• Troops found storerooms housing rockets, shafts that led to underground facilities, equipment that was used to manufacture guns, as well as a large cache of weapons that included anti-tank missiles, rocket-propelled grenades, machineguns, explosive devices, hand grenades, rifle magazines and more.
• On Sunday, 24-year-old IDF soldier Shimon Yehoshua Asulin was killed in action in the southern Gaza Strip.
• During a visit to the Tel Nof Air Base Israeli Defence Minister Gallant said that “every airstrike in Gaza brings us closer to achieving our goals and returning the hostages. The pressure on Hamas is working, they are in a bad condition, and we are hitting them. In the north, the reality is similar – as we deepen our military achievements, the chance of not having to go to war grows.”

The north: At least eight rockets were fired this morning from Lebanon at the Upper Galilee. No injuries were sustained.

• An anti-tank missile that was shot from Lebanon into northern Israel Saturday evening hit a garage in Kibbutz Yir’on and caused damage, according to the IDF. No casualties were reported.
• The IDF says it carried out new airstrikes on in the southern Lebanese village of Yaroun, including on a Hezbollah command centre and another building used by the terror group. The IDF says it also struck a Hezbollah observation post in Maroun al-Ras.
• IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said yesterday evening that the IDF has attacked more than 3,400 Hezbollah targets so far in the war. He went on to say that Israel has killed more than 200 terrorists, has destroyed roughly 40 arms storerooms that were hidden in the area of the Israeli border, and has destroyed roughly 120 Hezbollah observation posts.
• “The security reality in the north is already being remoulded now and will continue to be remoulded moving ahead. We won’t revert to the security reality as existed on October 6,” Hagari said. “The State of Israel is a different country. Hezbollah won’t threaten the residents of the north and deceive the world.”
• Gallant met with Biden’s Special Adviser to the Middle East Amos Hochstein and said that Israel is willing to solve the crisis with Lebanon through diplomacy, but is prepared for any other scenario.

Red Sea: Over the weekend, the US, UK and other allies conducted strikes against 36 Houthi targets at 13 locations, in what was their third round of joint military action.

• According to US Central Command (CENTCOM), US forces “conducted a strike in self-defence against a Houthi… land attack cruise missile,” and later struck “four anti-ship cruise missiles, all of which were prepared to launch against ships in the Red Sea”.
• American forces “identified the missiles in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and determined they presented an imminent threat to US Navy ships and merchant vessels in the region.”
• In a statement on Sunday, Houthi spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam said that continued US-British ‘aggression’ in Yemen will not achieve any goal for the aggressors and will not affect Yemen’s decision to show its support for Gaza.
• Iran has issued a warning to the US over potentially targeting two cargo ships in the Mideast suspected of serving as a forwarding operating base for Iranian commandos.

Context: Some Israeli officials believe the delay in Hamas responding is technical in nature; others believe it stems from deep differences of opinion within Hamas over substantive issues.

• Reports emerged over the weekend about differences of opinion between Hamas’s Gaza leadership, headed by Yahya Sinwar, and Hamas’s overseas leadership, headed by Ismail Haniya. Those in Gaza allegedly want a deal now while Hamas officials based overseas insist that any deal be contingent upon a complete end to the war.
• It appears Hamas is demanding the right to draw up the list of Palestinian prisoners to be freed from Israeli jails. These include Marwan Barghouti, long considered to be an important “symbol” of Palestinian resistance; Ahmad Sadaat, serving a 30-year sentence for the murder of Transportation Minister Rehavam Zeevi in 2001; and Abdullah Barghouti, a Hamas member who served as commander of Hamas’ West Bank military wing and was sentenced to 67 life-term sentences.
• The Israeli cabinet has discussed a 142-day ceasefire. The proposal that has been made calls for 35 hostages to be released in the first round during a 42-day pause in the fighting—one day of paused fighting for each freed hostage and another seven days of negotiations to conclude the next round. After that round, there will be 100 hostages remaining in captivity, meaning the pause is likely to last 100 more days.
• Israeli security cabinet members disagree on the length of the ceasefire.
• There are 136 hostages, alive and dead, who have now been held in Gaza for 122 days.
• The area of Rafah remains a challenge for the IDF. Four Hamas battalions are tasked with maintaining Hamas’s control over the area in which there are also significant smuggling routes. Approximately 1.4 million Palestinians are in Rafah. Some Israeli officials believe that with an orderly plan to move them, the conditions can be created for a manoeuvre. Such a step would constitute a de facto defeat of Hamas’s military wing even without reaching its leadership.
• Egypt is concerned that if the fighting is extended to Rafah, many of these 1.4 million Palestinians will be forced to flee over the border into the Egyptian Sinai. It recently relayed very stern messages to Israel warning that any movement of Palestinian refugees into the Peninsula would jeopardise the peace treaty between the two countries.
• Israel and Egypt are reportedly considering the option of relocating the border crossing in Rafah to the Kerem Shalom area, placing it near the three-way Israel-Gaza-Egypt border. According to Channel 13 the goal is to facilitate ongoing Egyptian involvement at the crossing so as to avoid clashing with it over that issue, on the one hand, while simultaneously allowing for the crossing to be on the Israeli border as well as to facilitate Israeli security inspections, on the other.

Looking ahead: During his current trip to the region, Blinken will visit Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Israel and the Palestinian Authority. He is due to continue the diplomatic efforts to reach an agreement that will free all of the remaining hostages in Gaza.

• The newly appointed French foreign minister, Stéphane Séjourné, is slated to begin a first round of visits to the Middle East today. He will travel to Egypt, then Jordan, Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Séjourné’s last stop will be Lebanon.

Paris summit: Negotiators representing the US, Israel, Qatar, and Egypt held a summit meeting in Paris over the weekend.

• The process is being led by CIA director Burns, alongside director of Egyptian Intelligence Kamel and the Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani.
• Israel’s delegation is led by the Mossad director Barnea, the head of the Shin Bet Bar, and Maj. Gen (res.) Nitzan Alon.
• The Prime Minister’s Office defined the talks as “constructive,” adding, “there are still significant gaps which the sides will continue to discuss at additional mutual meetings to be held this week.”
• According to Israeli media reports, they discussed two draft proposals, from Egypt and Qatar respectively, and are looking to potentially merge the two plans.
• Both plans look to release the hostages in stages, in exchange for Palestinians imprisoned for committing attacks.
• Similarly, both plans call for a pause in the fighting.
• Hamas is demanding international guarantees that the war will be ended, whereas Israel has refused this option. They are currently only willing to pause the fighting for up to a couple of month.
• Furthermore, Hamas is calling for a complete withdrawal of all Israeli troops from Gaza and guarantees that Hamas will remain in power in Gaza.
• Israel is prepared to withdraw a significant number of its troops, but has insisted that it will maintain a military presence inside the Gaza Strip
• To move the deal forward, the negotiators will need to agree a ratio for the price of each hostage vs each prisoner. In the first deal, the formula was three prisoners per child or female hostage. This time it is understood Hamas is demanding 200-300 prisoners per hostage.

Context : Intense fighting continues, particularly in the southern city of Khan Yunis

• The Hamas brigades that remain fighting in Khan Yunis have direct affinity with Hamas leaders Sinwar and Deif.
• Israel estimates that in the last week more than 400 Hamas combatants were killed in western Khan Yunis and the surrounding area.
• In that time, the IDF have also exposed a large weapons depot containing a significant amount of explosive devices intended for use against tanks and armoured vehicles.
• This has been one of the most intense theatres of battle. Hamas had prepared in advance by planting explosives and preparing ambushes.
• The complexity of the combat is compounded due to the anticipated presence of hostages.
• In the northern Gaza Strip, around 200,000 Gazans remain there, including Hamas figures who are embedded within the civilian population.
• Israel is facing pressure to allow others from the north to return home. However, it maintains that this is part of the condition in return for the release of hostages.
• Despite progress above ground, the task of decommissioning the huge tunnels complex is much slower.

UNRWA: The UK along with the US, Australia, Canada and several other European countries announced that they were suspending funding for UNRWA following revelations that some of its employees took part in the October 7 massacre.

• On Friday, UNRWA announced that it was launching an investigation.
• On Sunday, the New York Times released more details, claiming 12 Palestinian UNRWA workers took part in the atrocities committed by Hamas on October 7, including a staffer who abducted a woman, a social worker who distributed ammunition, and a third who participated in the massacre in Kibbutz Be’eri where 97 people were murdered.
• The report was based on Israeli and US intelligence, and included the tracking of their mobile phone locations, as well as intercepted phone conversations where they discussed their involvement in the massacre.
• In addition three more UNRWA staffers were also members of the Hamas military wing and received instructions in text messages to report to specific locations. One was instructed to bring with him anti-tank missiles stored in his home.
• It was also revealed that seven of the UNRWA workers were employed as maths and Arabic teachers at UN schools. Three others were a clerk, a social worker and the manager of the school’s storeroom.
• Israel’s Foreign Minister Katz said, “We have been warning for years: UNRWA perpetuates the refugee issue, obstructs peace, and serves as a civilian arm of Hamas in Gaza.”

Looking ahead: The talks in Paris are set to continue later this week.

• In parallel, Israel has accepted the US demand to allow a UN delegation to visit the northern Gaza Strip to study the situation there and assess public needs so as to eventually facilitate a return of residents to the area.
• Israeli officials continue to insist that some form of operation will be needed in the Rafah and southern edge of the Strip to prevent Hamas with the capacity to continue smuggling and rearm. Due to proximity and sensitivity, this will require reaching an understanding with the Egyptians.