What happened: The UN Security Council (UNSC) has extended the UN’s Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) mandate in southern Lebanon for another year.

• The UNSC approved the decision with the support of 13 out of 15 members, with Russia and China abstaining.
• In a marked achievement for Israel, UNIFIL forces received backing to operate independently and do not need to coordinate their activity with the Lebanese army.
• In addition, the Lebanese government was mandated to facilitate UNIFIL’s access to any site they wish to visit. This includes “announced and unannounced patrols.”
• In parallel to the UN decision, on Friday Iran’s foreign minister met with Hezbollah leader Nasrallah in Lebanon, as well as senior officials from Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas.

Context: UNIFIL was first established in 1978, but further expanded in UN Resolution 1701 following the Second Lebanon War in 2006, which forbade Hezbollah from maintaining any presence south of the Litani River.

• Ahead of the vote Israeli diplomats worked intensively, highlighting the importance of UNIFIL’s peacekeeping role, in particular their independent freedom of movement.
• As part of the effort, Israel’s Defence Minister Gallant visited New York last week and told the UN Secretary-General that “the potential for escalation on the northern border has risen in the wake of serious violations of sovereignty by Lebanon. Iran is pushing Hezbollah to act.”
• Gallant presented intel including maps and photographs highlighting Hezbollah’s recently established lookouts and increased presence on the border and attempts to create friction with IDF forces.
• Gallant also spoke about how Iran has increased funding and training for both Hezbollah and Palestinian terror groups.
• The latest Israeli assessment is that Hezbollah now has more than 150,000 missiles and rockets, as well as unmanned aerial vehicles, including assault drones, and special forces that can launch raids on land and at sea.
• To circumvent UNIFIL and 1701, Hezbollah operates under the guise of an NGO, ‘Green Without Borders’, which has established over 30 outposts along the Israeli border.
• Over the summer, there have been several provocative incidents by Hezbollah on the border. In one case two men were filmed climbing the security barrier and stealing an IDF surveillance camera. In a separate incident several men with face masks and dressed in military camouflage fatigues walked along the border with Israel.
• In July, IDF soldiers fired warning shots and crowd dispersal measures to disperse at least 20 Lebanese citizens who crossed about 80 metres into Israeli territory in the Mount Dov region. This was after Hezbollah placed two tents south of the Blue Line (inside Israel) in the area. One of the tents has been dismantled, while one tent remains.
• Last December, an Irish UNIFIL peacekeeper was killed and several others wounded after their convoy was shot at whilst driving through the town of Al-Aqbiya in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah was blamed, but denied involvement.

Looking ahead: Despite the positive endorsement of the UNSC, Israel will be keenly watching to see how the renewed mandate will be implemented on the ground.

• The overall assessment remains that Hezbollah is not looking for a wider conflict but is keen to test Israel’s resolve. Hezbollah’s aggressive posture remains primarily as an Iranian insurance policy in case the Iranian regime or their nuclear project is targeted.
• However, concern remains that a localised incident or a miscalculation could quickly lead to a wider confrontation.
• In the event of an escalation, the Hezbollah outposts on the border could become overt military positions from which Hezbollah could launch attacks inside Israel.

What happened: The Security Cabinet met yesterday and resolved, “to strike at the terrorists and whoever dispatches them, and authorised the Prime Minister and the Defence Minister to act accordingly.”

• The Prime Minister’s Office added, “The Security Cabinet backs the commanders and soldiers of the IDF and the personnel of the security services in their actions against terrorist elements.”
• According to Israeli media accounts the meeting included angry exchanges, reflecting the alternate world views of the security establishment opposing the agenda of right wing minister Ben Gvir and Smotrich.
• One security official who attended the meeting told Channel 12 News, “The meeting was surreal and unprofessional. It featured disagreements between the ministers and wasn’t issue-oriented.”
• Defence Minister Gallant raised the issue of Jewish nationalist hate crimes that has forced the security forces to divert resources and increased tension among the Palestinians. Ben Gvir reportedly responded angrily, saying, “Have you lost your minds? Israelis are being murdered and you’re focusing on those issues?”
• Another issue raised was the recent campaign of incitement against IDF officers by some right wing settlers, with the support of right wing ministers. Gallant said, “The campaign of verbal attacks on the IDF needs to be stopped immediately, and that’s connected to you and your parties (addressing Ben Gvir and Smotrich)….The attacks are irresponsible and make us look weak to our enemies. This is a security danger.”
• Ben Gvir responded, “I love the officers. You’re to blame for the situation. I have a problem with your policies as defence minister.” Gallant said, “Focus the fire on me. Take me to task.”
• In the course of the meeting, Ben Gvir demanded that restrictions be imposed on the Palestinians in the form of checkpoints and closures, and to resume targeted assassinations. He also demanded that the conditions of security prisoners’ incarceration be downgraded, for example restricting the range of television stations they can watch and by ending the policy of housing them according to organisational affiliation.
• Ben Gvir continued, “People were murdered. A mother in front of her daughter. A few days ago a father and son. And you keep talking about the danger of friction, the danger of nationalist crime. Have we lost our minds? I’m starting to think that we’re in Switzerland, that that’s our only problem. The discussion here is about terrorism. We need to come up with operative steps against terrorism.”
• Meanwhile the security professionals support further strengthening the Palestinian Authority (PA), with economic relief measures and supporting their security apparatus inside Palestinian cities as the best way to restore quiet.
• Earlier yesterday security forces arrested two suspects in the murder of Bat Sheva Nigri, the Israeli woman who was killed in the drive-by shooting attack Monday in the southern Hebron hills.

Context: The meeting followed three Israelis killed in two deadly shooting attacks this week.

• The latest victim was Batsheva Nigri, a 42-year-old mother of three and Kindergarten teacher, killed near Hebron on Monday while driving in a car with her 12-year-old daughter, who witnessed her death. The male driver of the car is in serious condition.
• Since the start of the year 34 people (32 Israelis, an Italian tourist and one worker from Gaza) have been killed in terror attacks. This is now more than all of 2022, which was already the highest year of fatalities since Operation Protective Edge in 2014.
• According to a recent assessment of the Shin Bet security service, there are around 200 active intelligence warnings of potential attacks. The Shin Bet has prevented over 350 shooting attacks this year.
• So far this year 1,560 Palestinians have been arrested and 750 guns have been confiscated.
• Whilst the vast majority of attacks have emanated from Jenin and Nablus in the northern West Bank, the most recent attack occurred in the Hebron region in the south.
• There is concern that this represents a wider embrace of terror tactics; Hebron has been a hub for terror in the past and known to have an established Hamas infrastructure.
• The majority of attacks this year have not been led by traditional terror organisations, but rather by individuals with no terror background, or new locally organised groups.
• The latest phenomena of roadside shootings are difficult to prevent as Palestinians and Israeli settlers use the same roads. This compounds the challenge of the policy of distinction: how to maintain quality of life for the Palestinian civilian population whilst targeting the terrorists.
• Contributing factors behind the attacks continue to be:
  • Large proliferation of weapons available in the West Bank, primarily smuggled from Jordan.
  • Online incitement, filming and glorification of attacks, particularly engaging disenfranchised young men on TikTok.
  • Erosion of the legitimacy of the PA.

Looking ahead: At present, the policy remains the pinpointed targeting of terrorists and their infrastructure based on intelligence, whilst causing minimum interference with Palestinians civilians.

• However there are calls, particularly among the settler population who feel the most vulnerable, to reinstate internal checkpoints or to launch a larger scale operation to target terror cells, and their weapons.
• The manhunt continues for the terrorist responsible for the deadly shooting of the father and son in Huwara on Saturday.
• Whilst there is continued concern that these recent shootings will inspire copycat attacks.

What happened: This morning an Israeli woman has been killed and a second person seriously wounded, shot whilst driving in the south Hebron hills in the West Bank.

• On Saturday afternoon two Israeli men, a father and his adult son, were shot dead at a carwash in Huwara.
• The terrorist approached them and spoke to them briefly, presumably to confirm they were Israeli Jews, before revealing a pistol and shooting them at point-blank range. He discarded his weapon and fled the scene on foot.
• Shay Silas Nigrekar, 60, and his son, 28-year-old Aviad Nir, drove from Ashdod on Saturday morning to a car garage in Huwara that Shay had used before, and then went on to have the car cleaned.
• At the time, the IDF was not deployed in large numbers in the vicinity. Only later were additional troops sent in to Huwara in order to secure the main road that runs through the village, when religious Jewish travel resumed after the Sabbath ended on Saturday night.
• The IDF launched a manhunt and later on Saturday IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Halevi visited the site of the attack alongside senior commanders and deploying troops to ensure there would be no clashes between Palestinians and settlers.
• In a separate incident, last night an Israeli man accidentally drove into the village of Turmus Ayya, in area A of the West Bank. He was attacked with rocks and lightly wounded. Local residents assisted him and he was extricated by IDF soldiers who responded to the call very quickly. Rioters then set his car on fire.
• In addition, there have been two incidents in the last 24 hours where the IDF has downed unmanned aerial vehicles launched by Hamas from the Gaza Strip. Yesterday an Iron Dome battery fired two missiles at a drone, which did not cross into Israeli territory. A similar incident repeated itself this morning.

Israeli context: Since the beginning of the year, 34 people (32 Israelis, an Italian tourist and one worker from Gaza) have been killed in terror attacks, including seven members of the security forces. A further 110 people have been injured.

• The Palestinian village of Huwara sits on the main road used by both by Palestinians and Jews to access the northern West Bank. Part of the village is area C (full Israeli control), part area B (Palestinian civil authority, Israeli security). Unlike area A (full PA civil and security) it is not illegal for Israelis to enter Huwara, and the carwash had signs in Hebrew.
• In February this year two brothers – Hallel Yaniv, 21 and Yagel Yaniv, 19 – were killed driving through Huwara. This precipitated revenge attacks by dozens of Israeli settler youth who violently rioted, setting fire to Palestinian property and vehicles.
• Today’s attack was the fourth shooting attack in August after a Tel Aviv municipality patrolman Amit Chen was shot and killed two weeks ago while preventing a much larger attack.
• There was also a shooting attack in Mishur Adumim, east of Jerusalem at the beginning of the month that injured five people.
• The Israeli government remains divided on their approach to the Palestinians, with the security establishment advocating confidence building measures to support the Palestinian Authority (PA). Ministers Smotrich and Ben Gvir have advocated its collapse, and aspire to annexation. This split is one of the reasons why Prime Minister Netanyahu has rarely convened the security cabinet.
• However, last week, even Smotrich gave his consent for the settler outpost of Aira Shahar to be destroyed as it was built on private Palestinian land. He faced backlash from religious leaders from his own camp.

Palestinian context: Mahmoud Abbas, the Chairman of the PA who will soon turn 87, has had a relatively productive summer so far. Facing ongoing criticism for corruption and collaboration with Israel, he reasserted his internal control, held several diplomatic meetings and chaired a reconciliation conference with Hamas.

• At the end of July Abbas visiting Jenin for the time in over a decade, where he started to re-establish his authority arresting some members of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).
• Earlier in August he sacked a dozen regional governors, include the governors of Jenin, Nablus, Tulkarm, Qalqilya, Bethlehem, Hebron and Jericho. He also fired four governors on behalf of the PA in Gaza, but as Hamas are in control this was seen purely symbolic.
• On the diplomatic front Abbas has met with several regional leaders including Turkish President Erdogan. He also met Egyptian President Sisi and King Abdullah II of Jordan at a three-way summit in El-Alamein, Egypt.
• At the end of last week Abbas convened the latest attempt at Palestinian reconciliation, hosting a conference alongside Hamas leadership, also in El-Alamein.
• The prospect of Smotrich and Ben Gvir influencing West Bank policy, plus the possibility of Israel-Saudi Arabia normalisation, has triggered renewed activity to stay relevant, including efforts to once more try creating a mechanism for talks towards reconciliation.
• Hamas has maintained its balance of paying lip service to reconciliation, maintaining order in Gaza whist seeking to undermine stability in the West Bank and encourage terror attacks.

Looking ahead: The IDF manhunt continues. Based on previous attacks, intelligence services are usually able to locate and apprehend the assailants.

• The alert remains raised over concern of further potential copycat attacks.
• PA Chairman Abbas will head the committee to select the new regional governors.

What’s happening: President Herzog will leave tonight on a diplomatic mission to the US.

• Herzog has been invited by the former Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi and the current Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
• In a statement last night, President Herzog said, “I am very much looking forward to representing the entire nation of Israel as President of the State of Israel, before the elected representatives of the American people, to mark the 75th anniversary of the State of Israel. The United States is Israel’s closest and most important friend and partner. The relationship between our countries is unique in its strength, which has rightly made it an unassailable alliance.”
• According to Herzog, as part of his agenda he will, “emphasise the importance of expanding the circle of regional peace and stress the essential need to fight against the hatred and terrorism that Iran is spreading while it pursues nuclear weapons. In my speeches and meetings, I will relate to my hosts as close partners in all the issues at hand, including the internal challenges and opportunities facing Israeli society.”

Context: The main purpose of the visit is to strengthen the relations and the partnership between the US and Israel.

• Israel’s political leadership is united in its concern over the Iranian threat, both nuclear and conventional, whilst also keen for the US to help advance normalisation with Saudi Arabia. (For more on this see BICOM’s recent paper.)
• Also on the president’s agenda will be to strengthen relations between Israel and the US Jewish community.
• The timing of the visit is particularly significant, due to the unfavourable impression made by some members of the current Israeli government and the fact that Prime Minister Netanyahu has, unusually, not yet been invited to the White House since his re-election last November.
• The Biden administration has expressed growing concern over both the Israeli government’s planned moves on judicial reform and its West Bank policy, particularly regarding increasing construction in settlements and settler violence against Palestinians.
• Last week the New York Times ran an oped by Thomas Friedman that suggested the US administration was ‘re-assessing’ ties with Israel. The term ‘reassessment’ has a precedent going back to the 1970s when a Rabin-led Labour government pushed back on US terms of an agreement with Egypt.
• The US President is keen to embrace Herzog as a representative of the Israeli people, whilst continuing to distance himself from the prime minister.
• However, the US continues to support Israel militarily. Two weeks ago Israel’s Ministry of Defence announced the purchase of additional 25 F-35 aircraft from the US government. This will enable the Israeli Air Force to operate a third squadron of the world’s most advanced stealth aircraft ,with the deal worth around $3 billion.
• Last July President Biden visited Israel and alongside Prime Minister Lapid signed the ‘Jerusalem Declaration’, which stated, “The enduring commitment of the United States to Israel’s security. Our countries further reaffirm that the strategic US-Israel partnership is based on a bedrock of shared values, shared interests, and true friendship.” The document further underscored, “unshakeable US commitment to Israel’s security, and especially to the maintenance of its qualitative military edge, the United States reiterates its steadfast commitment to preserve and strengthen Israel’s capability to deter its enemies and to defend itself by itself against any threat or combination of threats.”
• This will be President Herzog’s second visit to the US since taking office, while his speech in Congress will be only the second time an Israeli president has spoken to a joint session of both Houses. The first was by President Herzog’s father, the sixth President of the State, Chaim Herzog, more than 35 years ago.

Looking ahead: President Herzog will address a special joint session of the US Congress being convened to mark the 75th year of the State of Israel’s independence.

• The President will meet with President of Biden in the White House.
• The President is also expected to meet with Vice President Harris, which will focus on promoting  joint initiatives to mitigate the impact of climate change.
• He will also meet with other senior officials including Secretary of State Blinken and US National Security Adviser Sullivan.
• After Washington, President Herzog will travel onto New York where he will visit the United Nations and meet with the UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres. Herzog has invited Leah Goldin to join that meeting. She is the mother of the late Lt. Hadar Goldin, who fell in combat in the Gaza Strip during Operation Protective edge in 2014, and whose body remains held captive by Hamas.
• He will also meet with Governor of New York Kathy Hochul, Mayor of New York City Eric Adams, and members of the Jewish community.

What happened: Israel’s Security Cabinet met last night and agreed to take measures to prevent the Palestinian Authority (PA) from collapsing.

• Following the meeting they released a statement, submitted by Prime Minister Netanyahu, saying: “In the absence of a change in the national assessment, Israel will act to prevent the collapse of the Palestinian Authority, while demanding that it cease its anti-Israel activity in the international legal-diplomatic arena, the incitement in its media and education system, the payments to the families of terrorists and murderers, and the illegal construction in Area C.”
• The statement was supported by eight votes to one (Minister Ben Gvir) with Finance Minister Smotrich abstaining.
• The government did not specify what measures they would be taking, but they are thought to include economic relief measures, improvements of access and mobility and enhanced security coordination. Israeli media reports have speculated that measures could include:
  • Easing repayment conditions of money the PA owes to Israel.
  • Expanding the hours of the Allenby crossing into Jordan.
  • Advancing the proposed industrial zone in Tarqumiyah, in the southern West Bank.
  • Restoring VIP travel permits for senior PA officials.
  • Advance the development of a natural gas field off the coast of the Gaza Strip, for the benefit of the PA.

Context: Despite the presence of hard right politicians in the government, this latest votes confirms that the more moderate wing of the government still hold the majority.

• The professionals in the security establishment continue to unanimously believe that it’s in Israel’s interest to strengthen the PA, having recently warned that without support the PA could collapse.
• The decision reinforces Israel’s continued policy that distinguishes between Palestinian terrorists and the majority of innocent Palestinian civilians.
• Relating to terror, Prime Minister Netanyahu noted yesterday that, “this is the government’s policy and we are implementing it in three ways:
  • “First, we settle accounts with the assailants themselves, without exception.
  • “Second, we strike those who dispatch terrorists and at terrorist infrastructure.
  • “Third, we initiate and use the element of surprise. We determine the timing of our actions, as we did in Operation Shield and Arrow against Islamic Jihad in Gaza, and as we did in the operation against terrorists in Jenin. We are changing the equation and so we will continue.”
• Highlighting opposition within the government, ahead of the meeting Minister Amichay Eliyahu, from Ben Gvir’s Jewish Power Party, told Army Radio “The PA is very corrupt. I think that ultimately what needs to be done is for Israel to take on full security responsibility. We should be the boss. We should stop forsaking security responsibility to foreigners.”
• The cabinet debate followed last week’s operation in Jenin where Israel targeted the terrorist infrastructure including: command posts, six explosive labs with dozens of kilogrammes of chemicals used to assemble bombs. Forces also found and confiscated thousands of guns, killed 12 militants (the combatant status of one of those killed is today questioned by The Times- see below) and arrested another 30 suspects.
• The relief measures are also intended to counter the influence in the West Bank of Iran, which gives backing to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
• At the end of last week senior PA officials were harassed while attending the funerals of those killed in Jenin, due to their perceived collaboration with Israel.
• However, yesterday Senior PA officials again visited Jenin along with a significant deployment of PA security personnel.

Looking ahead: Security forces remain on heightened state of alert across the West Bank, with a large number of warnings of potential terror attacks.

• The IDF has now instructed troops in the West Bank to have a round in the chamber of their gun while on patrol and manning positions, to enable a quicker response time to attacks.
• Israel hopes that PA Security Forces can be deployed in Jenin and help prevent further terror attacks.

What happened: Israeli forces yesterday began their withdrawal from Jenin, signalling the end of Operation House and Garden (for more on the operation see BICOM’s briefings here and here.) The IDF announced the death of an Israeli soldier during the withdrawal. Elsewhere, Tel Aviv saw a ramming terror attack and rocket fire last night began from the Gaza Strip.

In Jenin: Israel’s military operation in Jenin ended this morning, with all IDF forces having left the area.

• Last night, an Israeli soldier, 23-year-old Sergeant-Major David Yehuda Yitzhak was killed while securing the beginning of the military’s withdrawal from Jenin. Yitzhak, from the settlement of Beit El, was critically injured during exchanges of fire. He was airlifted to hospital but succumbed to his injuries.
• 12 Palestinian terrorists have reportedly been killed during the operation. According to the IDF, some noncombatants were among the wounded.

In Tel Aviv: Seven people were wounded, four seriously, in a car-ramming and stabbing attack in northern Tel Aviv yesterday afternoon.

• The Palestinian assailant was named as 20-year-old Abed al-Wahab Khalaila, from the West Bank town of as-Samu. Khalaila was shot and killed by a nearby civilian.
• Hamas said Khalaila was a member but did not claim responsibility for the attack. It praised him as a “martyr fighter” and called the ramming “heroic and revenge for the military operation in Jenin.” Palestinian Islamic Jihad also praised the attack.
• One of the injured was a 30-year-old pregnant woman. She lost her child due to the wounds suffered in the attack.

In Gaza and southern Israel: Last night, after Israeli forces began their withdrawal from Jenin, five rockets were fired from Gaza at communities in southern Israel. All the rockets were intercepted by the Iron Dome missile defence system.

• In response, Israel targeted what it said was an underground Hamas manufacturing facility for weapons, and another for rockets.

Context: Since early Monday morning thousands of IDF troops have been operating against terrorist infrastructure inside Jenin, targeting several command and control centres in what is the largest offensive the IDF has undertaken in twenty years.

• Forces have confiscated over a thousand weapons, among them explosive devices, ammunition, guns, dozens of kilograms of chemical materials for making explosives, remotely operated weapons, and gas tanks.
• The weapons were located in hideouts, a mosque, pits concealed in civilian areas, operational situation rooms, and in vehicles.
• Two operational situation rooms used by terrorists in Jenin were also successfully located and dismantled.
• The military operation came after a series of Palestinian terror attacks against Israelis killed 29 people. According to IDF data, of the 290 terror attacks emanating from the West Bank since June 2022, 106 (or 36.5 percent) came from Jenin.

Looking ahead: The government considers the operation to have been a success, but it is not considered to be a long-term solution to ongoing Palestinian terrorism.

• Further – likely more limited – operations are possible in the coming weeks, with Operation House and Garden having both weakened a major terror stronghold and made conditions safer for Israeli counter-terror operations.
• Speaking as forces were in the early stages of withdrawal, Prime Minister Netanyahu said: “I can say that our extensive operation in Jenin is not a one-off.”
• Defence Minister Gallant stated that following the operation, Jenin is no longer a ‘terror factory’ but stressed the priority is freedom of movement. “It will take a little more time until we reach a situation where, as a result of having engaged militarily in Jenin in recent days, we will be able to move anywhere with a team of soldiers” he said.

What happened: Last night the IDF launched a large scale military operation in the city of Jenin and its refugee camp which included both ground forces and airstrikes.

• Over 1000 troops encircled the area, including over 15 IDF bulldozers to combat the improvised explosive devices (IEDs) planted along the roads.
• IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari explained the objective of the operation is to break the terror infrastructure which includes destroying labs where explosive devices and weapons are built, to target armed men, to collect weapons, and to arrest wanted men.
• One of the first targets was the joint terror command post. It served as the shared war room for various terror organisations. It was also used as a meeting point for arming terrorists with weapons and explosive devices and a communication centre for operatives. The command post served as a shelter for wanted operatives for terror attacks in the sector in the last few months.
• The IDF has also targeted a weapons production and IED storage facility. Forces also “located and confiscated an improvised rocket launcher along with additional weapons.”
• During the initial raid, the IDF made announcements over loud speakers: “Troops are operating in the area against armed men. Remain at home! Keep your family safe.”
• However, in parallel there were calls from mosques on the public to resist and to confront IDF troops.
• Israeli media are reporting that 20 wanted men have been arrested so far and an estimated ten terrorists killed.
• Defence Minister Gallant said, “Security forces are concentrating efforts against terrorist hubs in Jenin. We will take an offensive and aggressive stance against terrorism. Anyone who attacks Israeli citizens will pay a high price. The security establishment is prepared for any scenario.”

Context: The IDF have has been preparing for an operation like this for the last year, but it was only recently approved.

• It became more pressing following the recent deadly terror attacks in Eli, the deployment of IEDs against IDF troops and the introduction of rudimentary attempts to launch rockets last week.
• Hagari noted that in the last two years, 50 shooting attacks had originated in Jenin and that 19 terrorists had fled to Jenin. Three Israeli citizens were killed and 14 were wounded in terror attacks originating in Jenin during this time. He added, “Jenin will no longer be a city of asylum for terrorists.”
• Hagari also clarified that the operation is not against the Palestinian Authority, stating “we are strict about coordinating with the Palestinian security organisations as much as possible.”
• Israeli officials have also stressed that this is operation is limited, with no desire to extend it to other cities in the West Bank.
• The joint terror command post that was attacked was in the centre of the refugee camp near UNRWA compounds, including a school, a clinic and a food distribution centre. Hagari said that the enemy had been surprised by the air strike in the heart of the camp, in places that it thought were not known to Israel.

Looking ahead: The IDF is on high alert, including air defence systems in the south, in case Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad decide to fire rockets out of the Gaza Strip.

• This operation is expected to be limited in scope, with no plan to continue beyond a few days for the time being.

What happened: An organisation called the “Ayyash Battalion,” affiliated to the military wing of Hamas, launched two rockets from the Jenin area towards the Israeli community of Moshav Ram On, just north of the West Bank on Monday.

• The rudimentary rockets exploded in the air inside uninhabited Palestinian Authority (PA) territory.
• The IDF found rockets intact and without warheads, one which had fallen after five metres and the other after 80 metres. The IDF also found the launchers.
• Hamas’s military wing, Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, released footage and afterwards issued a statement, “It is only a matter of time until you hear of additional Ayyash and Qassam rockets that will destroy your strongholds. Soon alerts and warnings will be heard in the West Bank, and these will dictate a new stage of development and clashes with the Zionist occupier. Occupied Tel Aviv is not far away, and will be within firing range of the fighters.”

Context: Whilst these rockets are basic, unsophisticated and do not pose the same risks as the rockets out of Gaza Strip, the potential for technical development of rockets from the West Bank is cause for great concern.

• The first rockets fired from the Gaza Strip were in 2001. Since then, far more potent rockets have developed with a longer range and larger warheads.
• The situation would be compounded in the West Bank due to the close proximity to large Israeli population centres.
• Israeli intelligence has been wary of the potential threat of producing rockets for several years, but have only recently noticed an increased effort to develop these capabilities.
• Two months ago the head of the Shin Bet Ronen Bar revealed that they had arrested a terror cell in Jenin that had planned to fire rockets out of Jenin.
• This is the second such incident, last month the IDF found a rocket launcher after a similar video was posted online.
• This threat can also be seen in parallel to last week’s improvised explosive device (IED) which targeted IDF vehicles leaving Jenin and wounded six soldiers.
• The Ayyash Battalion is named after the notorious Hamas terrorist Yahya Ayyash, known as ‘the engineer’. He was Hamas’s top bombmaker in the 1990s before being killed by Israel after he was handed a mobile phone which was detonated remotely.

West Bank policy: The Israeli government appears to be split, between manging the conflict and cooperating with the PA and on the other hand, hard right politicians that want to weaken the PA and annex territory.

• This distinction can also be seen in their attitude towards settlers rioting and attacking Palestinians.
• Last night the prime minister convened a meeting to discuss settler violence where heads of security establishment heavily criticised the stance of Minister Ben Gvir.
• While earlier, Minister of Defence Gallant spoke with Minister of Civil Affairs in the PA, Hussein Al-Sheik, his first interaction with a senior PA official.
• According to Gallant’s office, he “emphasised the need to restore stability in the area, for the benefit of both the Jewish and Palestinian residents…. Minister Gallant also noted that the defence establishment views the recent violence against Palestinian civilians with great concern and emphasised that the State of Israel will take action to bring the perpetrators to justice.”
• Defence Minister Gallant concluded by “wishing Minister Al-Sheik a happy Eid al-Adha, and conveyed his wishes that the holiday will serve as an opportunity to strengthen security and stability in the region.”
• Also yesterday, President Herzog called the Head of the PA Mahmoud Abbas to also convey his greetings on the occasion of The Feast of Sacrifice, Eid al-Adha. “President Herzog emphasised in their conversation the importance of a forceful, persistent war against terror, incitement and hatred and he underscored the horrendous price and pain which terror inflicts upon bereaved families and Israeli society as a whole. The President reiterated the need to act fiercely to thwart terror which harms individuals, families and communities, as well as the chance to live peacefully, side by side, in the region and the broader Middle East. The President further underlined his unequivocal denouncement of the recent assault on innocent Palestinians by extremists.”
• Last night Foreign Minister Cohen spoke to US Secretary of State Blinken. Blinken said the US appreciated the condemnations of settler violence by the prime minister, the foreign minister and the defence minister, but that it expected Israel to do more.

Looking ahead: The security establishment views these rockets as a warning that Hamas and other groups continue to develop their capacity.

• Debate is continuing whether Israel will need to launch a more substantial military operation in Jenin. Whilst there is little appetite to occupy PA controlled areas, they could send in a large number of troops that would carry out targeted raids against terrorist infrastructure, over a period of a day or two and then leave.

• There is already an expanded presence of IDF troops deployed in the West Bank, in an effort to reassure the Israeli residents and serve as a deterrent to further attacks.