Top lines:

• After waiting 35 hours to respond to the targeting of three senior Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) commanders, PIJ have fired over 500 rockets towards southern Israel in the last 24 hours.
• As of this morning of the 500+ rockets, 368 crossed into Israel, of those 150 were intercepted by the Iron Dome anti-missile defence system while more than 100 fell short and landed inside the Gaza Strip.
• With the Iron Dome achieving 96 per cent success rate, no Israelis have been killed or seriously wounded. There were several direct hits on property in Sderot, Ashkelon and Netivot
• So far Hamas has approved and aided PIJ (including the operation of a join war room) but have not taken an active role in firing rockets, therefore the IDF has stuck to targeting PIJ assets.
• The IDF responded by attacking 158 PIJ targets inside the Gaza Strip including launch sites and launchers, rocket manufacturing facilities and other military targets
• In the early hours the Israeli Air Force targeted a fourth senior PIJ commander Ali Ghassan Ghali. He was the commander of their rocket units and was killed while hiding in an apartment in Khan Yunis. Two other PIJ operatives were killed alongside him.
• In an operational first, a missile directed at Tel Aviv was successfully intercepted by the David’s Sling system.  This system is the second rung of Israel’s multiple layered defence between the Iron Dome and the Arrow system.
• According to Palestinian sources 25 Gazans have been killed, of those four were senior PIJ commanders, and at least a further 6 PIJ combatants. Four others were armed combatants affiliated with the PFLP and involved in firing rockets.  There were 10 non-combatants killed in the initial surprise strike (see below). Another Gazan died from what appeared to be a PIJ rocket failing to cross the border.

Talk of ceasefire:

• The indirect talks are once again being led by Egypt.
• Yesterday there was already speculation that PIJ was ready for a ceasefire.
• However others cautioned that they would not stop without inflicting more serious damage.
• Reports suggest that Israel would not commit to terms restricting them from carrying out more targeted assassinations in the future.
• IDF Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Daniel Hagari said that the IDF would not address a ceasefire until it went into effect. He said that the Home Front Command’s guidelines for communities in 40kn range would remain in effect at least until tomorrow.
• Egyptian officials conveyed messages to Israel that PIJ did not want to escalate the fighting and that the current round of violence could be ended within a matter of hours.

Leaders’ comments:

• Prime Minister Netanyahu said last night in a public statement that the development of advanced intelligence and operational capabilities has made it possible for Israel to attack the leaders of the terror organisations at any given moment.
• Netanyahu said: “Our message to the terrorist leaders is clear: a new equation has been created. We see you wherever you are, and you can’t hide. We will choose where and when to attack you.”
• The UK’s Minister for the Middle East, Lord Tariq Ahmad said: “All countries, including Israel have a legitimate right to self-defence”, adding: ”where there is evidence of excessive force we advocate for swift and transparent investigations”, before stressing that along with foreign secretary James Cleverly, “want to see a de-escalation and a willingness for dialogue from all sides.”

Key indicators to look out for:

• If Hamas decide to join fray, this could extend the fighting.
• Without inflicting harm (fatalities) PIJ do not want to stop.
• Israel hopes to keep the focus on the Gaza Strip, whist PIJ (and Hamas) may try to extend the remit to the West Bank and Jerusalem, possibly even among Israeli Arabs and rocket fire from Lebanon.

From the Commentators:

In Yediot Ahronot, Avi Issacharoff comments that “it hardly came as a surprise that Hamas decided not to join the fighting against Israel and left Islamic Jihad to wallow on its own in its blood and rockets in yet another limited battle against the Zionist enemy…. It is almost a win-win situation: Islamic Jihad fired hundreds of rockets yesterday at Israel with Hamas’s permission and encouragement via what is dubbed their “joint operations room.” Hamas was thus able to partially pay lip service and to prevent it from being cast as a collaborator or a traitor, which is what would have happened had it clashed directly with Islamic Jihad and stopped it from firing at Israel. At the same time, the IDF, Shin Bet and the entire State of Israel focused in the last few days on one enemy only, an enemy that is Hamas’s political rival—Islamic Jihad. In other words, Israel is weakening an organization that challenges the ruling organization in the Gaza Strip and is in competition with it. Israel on the one side and Islamic Jihad on the other fought one another while Hamas remained unscathed and out of the fray, even though it had permitted—and not by merely looking the other way—rocket fire at Israel. Nevertheless, Hamas will pay a certain price for its decision to abstain from fighting. Hamas’s image as a “resistance” movement has been somewhat eroded. The majority of the Palestinian public recognizes that Hamas would prefer quiet in Gaza over another round of fighting that would produce nothing….The strike on Islamic Jihad’s leaders, without the operation devolving into full-scale war, will be viewed by the majority of the Israeli public as an Israeli victory, and rightfully so. The only side that will emerge defeated and humiliated, if the fighting ends now, will be Islamic Jihad.”

In Haaretz, Amos Harel writes, “the lack of any real casualties has provided Israel with an opportunity to end this round of fighting on a high note. Because the Palestinians haven’t succeeded in inflicting any real damage so far, they probably won’t agree to a speedy ceasefire…The Palestinian organizations adopted their own version of “We’ll respond when and where we see fit,” the famous promise of Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir after Iraqi Scud missiles landed in central Israel during the First Gulf War in 1991. By mistake, the Palestinians discovered a kind of: How to make the Israelis anxious without pulling the trigger…. Clearly, if Palestinian casualties continue to rise and Israel’s bombing campaign is prolonged, Hamas could be pushed to participate in the rocket onslaught itself. The bottom line is that Israel’s strategy has remained more or less the same since the end of Operation Guardian of the Walls, which began exactly two years ago. Despite the many changes in government, it has remained almost unchanged: Israel prefers to clash with Islamic Jihad rather than to confront Hamas directly. To ensure that the larger and more dangerous organization remains relatively quiet, Israel is willing to ignore the times when it contributes to the fighting in a limited way, enables the entry of Qatari money to the Gaza Strip (about $30 million a month), and permits 17,000 laborers from Gaza to enter Israel, bringing in almost another $40 million into the Strip).”

In Israel Hayom, Yoav Limor comments that “a quick review of Operation Shield and Arrow yields three immediate conclusions. The first is that Islamic Jihad was dealt a serious blow once again with the assassination of its top officials and the damage to its operational and arms production capabilities. The second is that Islamic Jihad failed to exact a price from Israel either in the Gaza periphery or by means of rocket fire deep into Israeli territory. The third is that Hamas stayed out of the fighting and effectively prevented it from expanding further, leaving Islamic Jihad to cope on its own with the repercussions of the bonfire that it lit, and allowed for the current round of fighting to be concluded relatively quickly. That organization [PIJ] tried to create linkage between Judea and Samaria and Gaza, translating every death in the West Bank into immediate revenge rocket fire from the Gaza Strip. Israel has made it clear to Islamic Jihad the price that it will pay for trying to do that…By the bye, Israel exhausted its bank of Islamic Jihad targets in terms of senior operatives who can be marked for assassination and other objectives (ranging from arms production sites to launching pits), while executing precise attacks and refraining from killing either Hamas operatives or civilians (except in the opening strike), so as not to draw the largest organization in the Gaza Strip into a fight that was liable then to escalate… Hamas does not want to join the war at present or, more accurately, it does not want Islamic Jihad to draw it into fighting a war. Hamas will fight (if at all) for its own reasons, and at a timing that works for it.”

Recap:  

• Israel felt it had unfinished business, most recently on May 2^nd when over 100 rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip toward Israel.
• On May 9 At 02:00, three simultaneous strikes; two in Gaza City, the third in the Rafah on the Egyptian border.
• Two bombs hit the fifth and sixth floors of a six-story building in the Ramal neighbourhood of Gaza City. On the sixth floor, Dr. Jamal Khaswan, 52, his wife Mirfat, 44, and their son Yusef, 18, were killed. On the fifth floor, senior Islamic Jihad leader Tarek Izz a-Din, 51, and his two children, Ali, 5, and Mayar, 7, were killed.
• At the same time, Israeli warplanes dropped two bombs on a two-story building in the a-Shaaf neighbourhood in Gaza City (the home of the al-Bahatini family), resulting in the deaths of Khalil al-Bahtini, a senior member of the Islamic Jihad, 44, his wife Lila al-Bahatini, 42, and their daughter Hajar, 4. Also killed in this attack were 19-year-old Dania Ades and her 17-year-old sister Iman, who lived the adjacent apartment.
• At the same time, the house of the al-Ghanam family in the Janina neighborhood of Rafah was attacked with three GBU39 type bombs, which caused the death of the senior Islamic Jihad leader Jihad al-Ghanam, 62, and his wife Wafa al-Ghanam, also 62 years old. In this attack, six others were injured, including al-Ghanam’s son.

The three commanders killed:

Khalil Bahitini – Senior Operational Officer of the Islamic Jihad in Gaza

• Responsible for the rocket fire towards Israel from Gaza last month.
• Responsible for approving and carrying out terrorist actions from Northern Gaza into Israel.
• Member of the PIJ’s military council in Gaza and in direct contact with the PIJ’s political bureau.

Tarek Az Aldin – Senior Operative and Coordinator of Terrorism in Gaza and the West Bank

• In charge of the coordination between Islamic Jihad in Gaza and Islamic Jihad in the West Bank.
• Arranged money transfers for planning and carrying out terrorist acts and coordinated terrorist acts on Israeli civilians.
• Was planning and coordinating multiple future attacks on Israeli civilians.

Jahed Ahnam – Military Council Secretary

• One of the most senior members of the PIJ.
• Previously served as Commanding Officer of Islamic Jihad’s Southern Gaza division and Head of the Military Council.
• Coordinated weapons and money transfers between the PIJ and Hamas .
• Worked largely in promoting destructive terrorism in Gaza, the West Bank and around the world.

What happened: Instructions remain in place for Israeli communities within 40km of the Gaza Strip border to stay in close proximity to bomb shelters following the assassination of three senior commanders of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).

• Following the Israeli strikes, yesterday Prime Minister Netanyahu held a press conference alongside Defence Minister Gallant, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi and Director of the Shin Bet Security Service Ronen Bar.  Prime Minister Netanyahu said that he and Defence Minister Gallant have instructed security forces to prepare for all escalation scenarios, including the possibility of more than one front.
• Ronen Bar revealed that one of the targets assassinated yesterday, Tarek Az Aldin, had been working on creating a rocket-launching apparatus in the West Bank city of Jenin and had taught a cell how to build and fire rockets.
• Following the earlier strikes, yesterday afternoon an IDF aircraft targeted a PIJ squad travelling by car, killing two operatives whist transporting anti-tank guided missiles to a launch pad in the southern Gaza Strip.
• Last night IDF soldiers killed two armed gunmen near Jenin, after troops came under fire from a passing car.

Operation Shield and Arrow: The operation launched early Tuesday morning caught the PIJ completely by surprise.

• It included 40 aircraft, that struck the three senior PIJ targets in their homes simultaneously.
  • Khalil Bahatini – PIJ Commander of the Northern Gaza Strip.
  • Jihad Ahnam – Secretary of the PIJ Military Council (released in the Shalit deal).
  • Tariq Az Aldin – Senior member of PIJ military leadership, responsible for military activities in the West Bank.
• Images of the strikes show the targeting of their apartments without causing extensive damage to the rest of the building.
• However, alongside the three senior commanders, 10 non-combatant Palestinians were killed, including four women and four children. Twenty others were injured.
• In addition to the three assassinations, several other PIJ military sites were also targeted.

Context: The decision to target the three senior PIJ commanders was made last week after over 100 rockets were fired towards southern Israel.

• One of the key indicators for this round of fighting will be whether Hamas also takes part in the fighting, and to what extent. Last August when Israeli launched Operation Breaking Dawn, which also targeted senior PIJ commanders, Hamas did not get involved.
• There is pressure from Iran (the main backer of PIJ) on Hamas to be part of the response.
• Khaled Mashal, the leader of Hamas outside the Gaza Strip threatened yesterday, “The blood-stained, vile assassination of three of the best of our nation in Gaza is a treacherous crime. There will be a strong response from the unified resistance forces.”
• As ever Egypt plays a critical role in the indirect mediation between the sides. Israel has reportedly sent a message via Egyptian mediators warning Hamas not to respond, saying that if Hamas were to join the fighting, its senior leadership would also be considered targets for assassination.
• If Hamas does choose to engage, this could lead to expansion of the operation, possibly beyond the Gaza Strip.
• One of the primary motivations of launching the operation was to restore deterrence. In particular following the rocket fire over Passover from not only the Gaza Strip but also from Lebanon and Syria.
• There were insinuations that the strike had a political dimension, due to pressure from Minister Ben Gvir. However, this has been stringently rejected, Yediot Ahronot quotes a source close to the prime minster clarifying, “The State of Israel’s security actions are not linked in any way to the steps taken by one party or another in the coalition and are taken only on the basis of security and state considerations.”
• Notably, Ben Gvir was not part of the security consultations, partly over fears of leaks, despite his role as Minister for National Security.
• Chief of Staff Halevi related to the deaths of the non-combatants, that Israel goes to lengths to avoid. However, he noted that the terrorists systematically operate from within the civilian population and, by so doing, placed their lives in jeopardy.

Looking ahead: Israel’s security establishment is on its highest level of alert ahead of possible retaliatory attacks.

• PIJ has warned that they would respond at a time, place and manner that would surprise Israel.

What happened: Around 200 Israeli troops took part in a counter-terror raid yesterday morning, targeting the terrorists who killed three members of the Dee family.

• The raid deep into the casbah of Nablus was partially captured in Palestinian CCTV and appeared to show the lead IDF soldiers in disguise, including some dressed as women, others as labourers.
• Troops surrounded the building and following a short gun fight, the IDF announced that they killed the two Hamas terrorist operatives Hassan Ktnani and Maed Mitsri along with third Hamas operative Ibrahim Hura, who had helped them hide.
• The IDF also found two M-16 rifles and an AK-47 in the apartment used in the attack against the Dee family three weeks ago.

Responses: Following the operation, Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “This morning we settled the score with the murderers of Lucy, Maia, and Rina Dee. Our message to those who harm us, and to those who try to harm us, is that it may take a day, a week, or a month – be assured that we will come for you. It doesn’t matter where you try to hide, we will find you. Whoever harms us – their blood is on their own heads.”

• Rabbi Leo Dee told Ynet, “The world will be able to sleep better when these terrorists are no longer alive. I am very happy to hear that no soldier or civilian was hurt or affected in the event. It is a mission that only the IDF and the Shin Bet can do.”
• Curiously, the Governor of Nablus Ibrahim Ramadan released a statement saying, “The killing of the young men in Nablus this morning is a natural result of their non-compliance with the Palestinian security services and their refusal to surrender their weapons.”
• Chairman of Palestinian Authority (PA) Mahmud Abbas said, “We strongly condemn the aggression against Nablus and call on the American administration to act to stop it.”
• Hamas claimed all three men were members of their military wing and said the attack in the Jordan Valley was in response to the Israeli aggression against worshipers in al-Aqsa during the month of Ramadan.

Context: Intelligence sources have revealed that the security establishment knew the identity of the terrorists hours after the attack and assumed that they were hiding in the casbah in Nablus.

• They waited until they had the precise location of their hideout.
• The entire raid was completed in an hour, no other Palestinians were killed and no IDF forces were injured, though an IDF dog was killed whilst protecting a soldier.
• The raid is another intelligence coup for Israel, as well as a complex operation in the heart of a Palestinian city in broad daylight.
• The raid comes days after the latest flare-up when over a hundred rockets were fired from Gaza on Tuesday.
• The IDF responded with airstrikes against sixteen military targets, with one Palestinian reportedly killed.
• The relatively subdued response caused anger among some right wing members of the government. This anger was compounded when it was revealed that the prime minister did not invite Public Security Minister Ben Gvir to the security consultation. This is turn led Ben Gvir and his five members of Knesset to boycott parliamentary votes on Wednesday, with threats to resigns, and counter threats from the Likud telling him to quit.
• The cell, with its affiliation to Hamas, attests to a rise in Hamas involvement in West Bank terror. In addition one of the men killed yesterday was a close family relation of Husam Badran, a senior Hamas official released as part of the Gilad Shalit prisoner exchange, who now lives in Qatar.
• The third man killed was also a member of the Lion’s Den group, further proof of their coordination with Hamas.

• Overall there is growing concern over the terror infrastructure in the West Bank, particularly the phenomena of small cells armed with automatic weapons who are planning further attacks. There is increased speculation whether it will be necessary to conduct a wider scale military operation. Currently there are four possible scenarios:
  • A large scale operation across the West Bank: the logic being it is better to strike before there is a major terror attack and take the initiative.
  • Others have suggested a more gradual approach: instead of one large operation, a series of localised ones.
  • A third option is to continue the current practice of targeted operations that focus on specific intelligence against wanted suspects or ‘ticking bombs’ where an attack is imminent.
  • A fourth option is to empower PA security forces to operate against these threats.
  • A fifth option could be a combination of the last three options.

• Meanwhile, in Damascus yesterday, as part of his historic visit, Iranian President Raisi met with Palestinian leaders including the head of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Ziyad al-Nakhalah as the latest indicator of closer Iranian ties to Palestinian terror groups.

Looking ahead: Large deployments of IDF troops remain in place across the West Bank, with Hamas threatening to launch revenge attacks for yesterday’s killing.

• In the next couple of weeks, the Palestinians will mark the Nakba Day (catastrophe) on May 15, the English anniversary of Israel’s independence. Later that week, Israel marks Jerusalem Day, the anniversary of reunifying the city. Both dates have in the past seen a spike in hostilities.

What’s happened: A ceasefire is currently in place, following extensive rocket fire at southern Israel over the last 24 hours.

• The rockets came in several waves, beginning yesterday morning with three rockets fired towards Kibbutz Saad.
• The rockets came in response to the death of Khader Adnan, a 45-year-old member of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) who had been on hunger strike for the last three months whilst imprisoned. He had refused medical assistance and was found unconscious in his cell yesterday morning.
• Yesterday afternoon, (coinciding with end of the school day) 30 rockets were fired, including an intense barrage of 22 rockets in just five minutes. Of the 22, 16 fell in open areas, 4 were intercepted by the Iron Dome missile defence system, whilst 2 landed in Sderot. Three men were injured on a construction site, including one in a serious condition. He was hospitalised and is now stable.
• The IDF responded with air strikes targeting sixteen Hamas military sites, including weapon manufacturing facilities, military posts, and an underground terror tunnel.
• According to Palestinian sources, one Gazan was killed and five injured in a strike on a Hamas military post.
• Around 70 rockets were fired throughout the night, with warnings sounded beyond the Gaza Strip periphery to Ashkelon.
• Overall, of 104 rockets fired into Israel it is estimated that 59 landed in uninhabited areas (including at least 11 in the Mediterranean Sea). 24 were intercepted by the Iron Dome, whilst 14 failed to cross the border and landed inside the Gaza Strip. 7 rockets remain unaccounted for. The Iron Dome recorded 90% successful interceptions.

Context: Despite this latest round of fighting, the overall logic remains that both Israel and Hamas prefer a return to quiet and do not want a further escalation of fighting in the south.

• Unlike last August when Israel clashed with the PIJ and Hamas stayed out, yesterday Hamas gave its consent for PIJ to carry out the rocket attacks, but did not directly participate.
• There is concern in Israel that Hamas and PIJ are taking advantage of the perceived weakening of Israel due to the domestic unrest, including the economic fallout and perceived deterioration in ties with the US.
• There is also concern over the growing coordination and ties between the Palestinian terror groups and Iran. Last month saw Israel attacked from various fronts including rocket fire from Lebanon and Syria.
• Now that Ramadan has finished and the sensitive holiday period in Israel is over, there are some in the Israeli government calling for a harsher response to the rocket fire.
• Similarly, some residents of the south that have born the brunt of rocket attacks for close to two decades expect this right-wing government to respond more robustly.
• Some are calling for a return to targeted assassinations of senior terrorists in order to restore deterrence.
• Prior to his death Khader Adnan was not considered a senior PIJ figures, but had an enhanced reputation as he had been in and out of administrative detention and conducted numerous hunger strikes. He was considered one of the movement’s ‘spiritual leaders’, continuously advocating for terror attacks against Israel (hence his continued arrests).
• Adnan came from Jenin, raising concerns of possible revenge attacks emanating from there.

Looking ahead: Following the ceasefire brokered by Egypt and the UN, the IDF announced this morning a full return to normal in the Gaza Strip periphery, including schools which will be open as usual.

• Despite the declared ceasefire, Israeli officials have said they are prepared for ongoing hostilities, including heightened alerts in the West Bank.