What’s happening: Today is the forth Friday of Ramadan, and also Iranian-led Quds (Jerusalem) Day.

• Tens of thousands of Muslim worshippers are expected to attend services on the Temple Mount / al-Aqsa Mosque.
• The Police in Jerusalem have augmented their forces with around 2,300 police officers, Border Police troops and reinforcements from across the country deployed throughout the capital, particularly in East Jerusalem and the Old City.
• In the West Bank, the IDF remains on a heightened state of alert having also deployed reinforcements across the sector over the last few days.
• The Israel Airports Authority announced that the airspace near the northern and southern borders has been closed to civilian flights.

Stoking the Fire: Since the Islamic Revolution, Iran has used Quds Day to rally against Israel.

• This year Iran is promoting ‘resistance’ in the West Bank as a way to ‘protect’ Jerusalem.
• Following Iran’s reconciliation with Saudi Arabia, Iran is encouraging all the Arab and Islamic countries (both Shia and Sunni) to act in unison against Israel.
• Hamas has called for a large turnout of both Palestinians and Israeli Arabs to attend prayers today in al-Aqsa.
• Ziyad al-Nakhlah, the leader of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), is visiting Iraq this week, he also called on the Arab world to unite against Israel, saying, “Positive steps are happening in the region. We will continue until we expel the Zionist invaders from our country.”
• Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, is expected to make a live address later today and share a digital platform with Iran’s president, Ibrahim Raisi.
• There has been growing cooperation among Iranian-supported terror organisations, including high level meetings of Hezbollah, Hamas and PIJ leaders in Beirut.

Context: As in previous years Prime Minister Netanyahu decided to prevent non-Muslims from visiting the Temple Mount until the end of Ramadan.

• The decision had the unanimous backing of Defence Minister Gallant, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Halevi and Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar.
• National Security Minister Ben Gvir described the decision as “capitulation to terrorism.” According to Ben Gvir, “The lack of Jews’ presence on the Temple Mount will automatically result in a depletion of the police force on the mount, which will create fertile ground for huge displays of incitement to murder Jews and even to a scenario of stone-throwing at Jewish worshippers at the Western Wall. When terrorism strikes at us, we need to strike back at it with tremendous force, not to capitulate to it and its whims.”
• The Chief Rabbinate, as usual, supported the decision, as according to their interpretation of Jewish Law it is forbidden for Jews to ascend the Temple Mount.
• Following last week’s rocket attacks from Syria, Lebanon, Gaza Strip and two deadly terror attacks, this week has been relatively quiet. However, the IDF has continued to operate against terror cells in the West Bank. Five people were arrested in Jenin suspected of planning an imminent terror attack.
• Earlier in the week two gunmen were killed in the Nablus area, after they shot at an IDF position.
• The Israeli police entered the al-Aqsa mosque last Wednesday based on intelligence that a pre-planned attempt by hundreds of young men to bring rocks and explosives into the mosque was aimed start violence and unrest. No-one was killed, and there were no serious injuries, but footage of police violence contributed to the spike in attacks by Palestinian terror groups.
• In Israel’s response to rockets from the Gaza Strip last week, the Air Force dropped 50 tons of explosives on Gaza, targeting Hamas military sites. No Gazans were killed in the strikes.
• The response to the rockets from Lebanon was even lighter, so as not to risk further escalation. The Israeli assessment was that the rocket fire from southern Lebanon was a Hamas or an independent Palestinian initiative, with Hezbollah maintaining plausible deniability.  However, Iran is certainly encouraging a more coordinated effort and ratcheting up the pressure.

Looking ahead: The police are aware that Hamas will be looking to exploit any rioting or attacks as a propaganda success.

• Iron Dome missile defence systems are on a high state of alert, deployed around the Gaza Strip and the northern borders.
• The ban on civilian flights is expected to remain in place until Sunday evening.

What happened: British mother Lucy Dee died of her wounds yesterday, three days after the deadly shooting attack that claimed the lives of her two daughters, Maia and Rina.

• Her death is widely mourned across Israel, UK and the Jewish world. Both President Herzog and Prime Minister Netanyahu have issued condolences.
• Her Husband, a former Rabbi in the UK, gave an impassioned plea to differentiate between good and evil.
• Last night Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed the nation. He began by again offering condolences to the Dee family.
• Relating to the recent wave of attacks, Netanyahu blamed the previous government for the loss of deterrence.
• He warned that if there are further attacks from Syria, President Assad will pay “a very heavy price,” adding that Israel will not allow Hamas to entrench itself in Lebanon.
• Netanyahu also confirmed Defence Minister Gallant will remain in post, having put their past differences behind them.
• In a rare move, he also answered questions from journalists. On the issue of judicial reforms, Netanyahu said that he was looking for a broad agreement, whist promising to protect minorities and women, LGBTQ people and the ultra-Orthodox.
• Asked about the formation of a National Guard, Netanyahu said it “will not be anyone’s militia” and would fall under the command of one of the security forces.
• Also yesterday – around 20,000 right wing Israelis including seven government ministers and 17 coalition MKs marched to the West Bank settler outpost of Evyatar in protest of recent terror attacks. Among the marchers were National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Betzalel Smotrich.

Context: Tension remains high, but relative calm has been maintained over the last 48 hours, despite the previous few days marked by rocket fire from Syria, Lebanon, Gaza Strip and two deadly terror attacks.

• The right wing march was criticised by some on the right for diverting IDF troops to defend the marchers instead of participating in the manhunt for the terrorists that killed three members of the Dee family.
• There was also criticism that Israel’s response to the recent attacks has been too feeble. Likud MK Danny Danon told Army Radio, “The containment approach isn’t working and has brought on further attacks. We have to pivot from containing to defeating. The current situation can’t go on. The effort to postpone the inevitable has only brought us to a multiple-theatre incident. We have all the capabilities and strength to pummel our enemies. Our region only understands force and the time has come for us to use it.”
• However members of the security cabinet have maintained that Israel’s retaliatory strikes were proportionate and commensurate, given the circumstances.
• The police released new intelligence that explained their decision to enter into the al Aqsa mosque last week. According to Police Commissioner Insp. Gen. Yaakov Shabtai, as well as rocks and fireworks, explosive devices were also smuggled into the Temple Mount last week with the intention of using them against the police.
• Netanyahu’s comments blaming the outgoing government for the increased terror is the latest spat between government and opposition. On Sunday night, Netanyahu met with Leader of the Opposition Lapid and gave him a security update. Afterwards, Lapid said, “The opposition will support any action recommended by the security branches. I arrived at the briefing with Netanyahu worried, and I left even more worried.”
• In response, the Likud accused Lapid of playing “petty politics instead of projecting a message of firm unity to our enemies.”
• Latest opinion polling on Channel 13 News shows a massive surge for Benny Gantz’s, National Unity Party up to 29 seats (from 12) with Yesh Atid down slightly to 21. Whilst Likud slumps to 20 (currently with 32).  The Religious Zionist Party and Jewish Power are also sightly down 11 (now 14), with Shas polling 9; United Torah Judaism: 6; Hadash-Ta’al: 6; United Arab List: 5; Yisrael Beiteinu: 5; Labour Party: 4; Balad: 4.  This would give the current coalition parties: 46 seats (down from 64) and the former coalition parties: 64 seats with Hadash-Ta’al and Balad on 10 combined.
• The same poll also shows both Lapid and Gantz receiving more support for being better suited to serve as prime minister, rather than Netanyahu.

Looking ahead: The manhunt to apprehend the terrorists who murdered the three Dee family members is still ongoing after the terrorists’ vehicle was found by Palestinian Authority security forces in Nablus.

• The organs of the late Lucy Dee were transplanted and have saved the lives of 5 people.
• A decision is expected to be made soon on whether to allow or close the Temple Mount to Jewish visitors in the last week of Ramadan.
• The security establishment has said there was no security reason for Jews not to visit the Temple Mount on the seventh day of Passover (tomorrow), but after that it could then be limited to Muslim worshippers for the duration of Ramadan.

The victims of Friday’s shooting attack near Hamra in the West Bank have been named as sisters and British nationals Maia Esther Dee and Rina Miriam Dee, aged 20 and 15.

• Their mother Lucy, 48, remains in critical condition at Hadassah Hospital Ein Kerem.
• The three, residents of the Israeli settlement of Efrat, were travelling by car near Hamra when they came under fire, causing their vehicle to crash. Terrorists then opened fire on the stricken vehicle.
• The victims’ father, Rabbi Leo Dee, a former senior rabbi at Radlett United Synagogue and assistant rabbi in Hendon, was travelling in a separate car.
• While no group has claimed responsibility for the attack, Hamas praised it as “a natural response to the occupation’s ongoing crimes against Al-Aqsa Mosque and its barbaric aggression against Lebanon and the steadfast Gaza.”

Israel continues to face and respond to multi-dimensional, multi-front security situations:

Rockets from Syria:

• Overnight Saturday, wo salvos, of three rockets each, were fired at Israel from Syria, triggering alarms in the Israeli Golan towns of Natur and Avnei Eitan.
• Three of the rockets entered Israeli territory, one being intercepted by Iron Dome and two landing in open fields.
• A Palestinian-Syrian militia calling itself the Al-Quds Brigade claimed responsibility for the first salvo.
• In response, the Israeli Air Force struck sites in the Syrian areas from which the rockets emanated – said by Syrian sources to be Tel al-Jamuah, located between Tasil and Nawa – including military sites, radars and artillery positions. Earlier, IDF artillery shelled the attack area, while unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) targeted the rocket launchers.

Tel Aviv Attack:

• In Tel Aviv on Friday, an Italian tourist was killed and seven others injured when a terrorist launched a car-ramming attack along several hundred metres of Kaufmann Street, near Charles Clore Park.
• Alessandro Parini, a 35-year-old lawyer from Rome, died in the attack, while hospital officials have disclosed that British nationals are amongst the injured.
• The perpetrator, killed at the scene, was later named as Yousef Abu Jaber, 45, an Israeli citizen and father of five from Kfar Qasim with no security record.
• A police official said that “A terrorist with no history of security issues, and not a young man, who carries out an attack like this was almost certainly influenced by the incitement.”
• Kfar Qasim Mayor Adel Badir said, “We denounce any attack against innocent people and call for all sides to show tolerance. This is not the way of Kfar Qasim residents. The city was and remains a place for coexistence and the pursuit of peace.”

Temple Mount:

• Overnight, hundreds of Palestinians once more barricaded themselves inside al Aqsa Mosque, with the Jordanian Waqf refusing to remove them despite commitments not to allow overnight stays in the mosque during Ramadan.
• While Defence Minister Yoav Gallant on Saturday took the unusual step of reinforcing the police in the Central District with troops from the IDF, Israeli forces declined to move to remove those inside on this occasion.
• This morning, groups of around 20 Jews at a time are being permitted to enter the compound under guard.

Context: The latest fatalities as a result of Palestinian terrorism takes the death toll on the Israeli side to eighteen since the beginning of this year. Thirty-two people were killed in terror attacks in 2022.

• Despite facing rockets attacks from Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip this week, none of these attacks have resulted in fatalities or injuries.
• The responses by the IDF have been calibrated according to the sector, but have all been measured and restrained, with no reported loss of lives. However, the response in Syria – targeting the source of fire – has been more robust than the response in Lebanon, where concerns over further reprisal attacks and escalation from Hezbollah have inspired restraint.
• Israel’s security establishment had anticipated that Ramadan would be the catalyst to spark attacks against Israel. Already a month ago, the explosion at the Megiddo Junction by a terrorist who managed to enter Israel from Lebanon with a heavy bomb raised alarm. The bomb which exploded prematurely was evidence of cooperation between Hezbollah and Palestinian terror groups. However at the time, Israel did not blame Hezbollah directly, again, partly to give them more scope to respond (or not) and avoid an escalation.
• The working understanding from Israeli intelligence is that the rocket fire from Lebanon was not Hezbollah, which has denied responsibility, but Palestinian groups operating out of southern Lebanon.
• However, cooperation and coordination between Hezbollah and Palestinian terror organisations, with the guidance of Iran has been growing.
• Similarly, the working assessment remains that Hamas in Gaza does not want to see an escalation there, but prefers to incite and encourage terrorism in the West Bank.
• To an extent, events around the Temple Mount influence all other theatres, due to the resonance of the site for Muslims and Jews.
• A pattern has developed whereby young men armed with rocks and  fireworks lock themselves into al Aqsa mosque at night in order to provoke police and create disturbances. On Saturday night the police let them remain inside the mosque and did not confront them, whilst facilitating Jewish visitors to the site and allowing the traditional Passover priestly blessings to be conducted at the Western Wall below.
• There is also concern that Iran is also trying to incite Israeli Arabs to join the attacks. The terror attack in Tel Aviv was committed by an Israeli Arab. Of significance, the leader of the Islamic Ra’am Party Mansour Abbas condemned the attack writing on twitter in Hebrew: “Especially during these difficult times, it is important for me to emphasise, as I have done many times in the past – as for the Tel Aviv terror attack, is not the way of the Arab society or Arab citizens in Israel. Arab leadership, particularly Ra’am and the Islamic Movement, will not condone any acts of violence against citizens, regardless of their religion, race, or ethnicity.”

Political context: Israel was already facing a severe domestic crisis, as a result of divisions caused by the government’s proposed judicial reforms.

• The reforms and the make-up of hard right members in the coalition are also compounding the perception of a fissure in relations with the US. In this context the Iranians may believe this is an opportune moment to attack Israel.
• This government is now marking its first 100 days in power. It is facing calls from within the right wing to act more robustly in responding to attacks. Yet for now a more considered approach, endorsed by the security establishment, to avoid escalation is being adopted.
• The tenure of Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, remains in doubt. Two weeks ago he was fired after warning of “clear, immediate and palpable danger” to Israel’s security as a result of the proposed reforms. The firing appears suspended for now and he remains in his role.
• Despite media speculation over a US-Israel rift, Gallant spoke with US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin and in a reassuring move the US announced that it was deploying a guided missile submarine to the Gulf and an aircraft carrier to the eastern Mediterranean.

Looking ahead: The manhunt in the West Bank for the terrorist who killed the Dee sisters is ongoing.

• An Iranian militia has warned of more planned attacks against Israeli owned vessels in the Gulf.
• Israel has called up Border Police reservists to augment their defensive posture particularly in Jerusalem.
• If the attacks on Israel continue there could be a larger call up of reserves.

What happened: Overnight at least nine rockets were fired towards southern Israel from the Gaza Strip.

• Eight of the rockets were intercepted by the Iron Dome anti-missile defence system, with one landing in an open field.
• In response the IDF “struck three sites and a number of military posts” belonging to Hamas, among the targets were weapons manufacturing and storage sites.
• The rocket fired was preceded by clashes on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem, when police entered al Aqsa mosque to arrest and remove over 350 young men who had locked themselves inside the mosque. Police described how “masked juveniles smuggled fireworks, clubs and stones into the mosque and violently barricaded themselves inside.”
• On Tuesday an IDF soldier was severely injured and a second soldier lightly injured in a stabbing attack at Tzrifin Junction, in central Israel. During a physical struggle the assailant tried to steal the weapon of one of the soldiers. He was eventually overpowered by civilians and taken into police custody.
• In a separate incident an IDF soldier was moderately injured after being shot during riots in Beit Ummar near Hebron early Wednesday morning.

Context: The rockets were most likely fired by Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), however Israel responded by striking Hamas positions, as it is Hamas that has overall control and responsibility for the Gaza Strip.

• For further background, please see our recent anaylsis.
• Conventional thinking remains that while Hamas supports attacks emanating from the West Bank, it has a vested interest in keeping the Gaza Strip relatively quiet.
• So far this year there have been at least 24 rockets fired out of the Gaza Strip on seven separate occasions.
• At a traditional pre Passover toast yesterday, the head of Shin Bet Security Service Ronen Bar revealed that the Shin Bet has prevented more than 200 “significant” terrorist attacks since the beginning of the year. Bar said, “only 3 months have passed and this year over 200 significant attacks have been thwarted, including about 150 shooting attacks, 20 bomb attacks, car-rammings, suicide bombings, kidnappings and more. Unfortunately, we’ve also suffered 15 painful losses.”
• The police entered the al Aqsa mosque for the second time this Ramadan after an agreement had been reached with the Islamic Waqf that no one would be permitted to remain in the mosque overnight.
• The disturbances on the Temple Mount and rocket fire from Gaza add to an already tense security outlook. Earlier this week Israel’s sovereignty was breached by two unmanned ariel vehicles (UAV) penetrating Israeli air space. One UAV, suspected of being Iranian, was downed after crossing from Syria. A second UAV was launched out of the Gaza Strip in the south.
• There is growing concern that Israel’s enemies sense an opportunity to attack in the light of the internal divisions over the proposed judicial reform.  The concern is compounded by Iran directing improved coordination between Hezbollah, Hamas and PIJ.
• This last week has seen extensive activity in Syria, with four separate air strikes attributed to Israel.  The targets included several components of Iran’s military network including weapons storage and facilities involved in their precision guided missile programme.

Looking ahead: With Passover beginning tonight coinciding with the beginning of the third week of Ramadan, security forces remain on high alert.

What happened: Israel’s Foreign Minister Eli Cohen visited London yesterday and alongside Foreign Secretary James Cleverly they signed, “the 2030 Roadmap for Israel-UK Bilateral Relations.”

• According to the UK government, “the Roadmap contains detailed commitments for deepening cooperation across the breadth of the Israel-UK relationship, including on trade, cyber, science and tech, research and development, security, health, climate and gender.”
• The agreement also includes around £20millon of joint funding commitments on technology and innovation.
• The UK also “committed to working closely with Israel to tackle the scourge of antisemitism. As chair for the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance in 2024, the UK will promote fact-based knowledge of the Holocaust and strengthen media and information literacy.”
• Ahead of the visit Foreign Secretary Cleverly said, “The UK-Israel relationship has already delivered huge benefits to both economies. Our trade relationship is worth around £7 billion, and there are more than 400 Israeli tech firms operating in the UK. Israeli investment into the UK drives growth and jobs, adding around £1 billion gross value to the UK economy and creating about 16,000 jobs in the last 8 years.”
• In their private meeting the pair discussed the dual threats of Iran’s nuclear programme and their destabilising regional aggression.  According to the UK government, “On Iran, the Foreign Ministers discussed deepening our security and defence co-operation to counter the threat posed by the regime.”
• Ahead of Ramadan, and regarding Jerusalem, “the Foreign Ministers agreed on the importance of upholding the historic Status Quo of the holy sites in Jerusalem.”
• Regarding Russia, Cleverly “stressed the importance of accelerating efforts to ensure Ukraine wins this war and secures a lasting peace.”
• Minister Cohen said, “the international community must unite against the Iranian threat, increase sanctions, and present a viable military threat.”
• Cohen also participated in a memorial ceremony alongside Lord Tariq Ahmed, the Minister for Middle East Affairs to mark the 20th anniversary of the death of the late Ambassador Shlomo Argov.  He was seriously injured in a terrorist attack while serving as Israel’s ambassador to the UK in 1982.

Context: The genesis of the roadmap was in November 2021 when Foreign Minister Lapid visited London and met with Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Foreign Minister Liz Truss.

• At the time Foreign Ministers Lapid and Truss co-wrote an op-ed in The Telegraph where they declared that Israel and the UK would sign a major new agreement, “transforming our close friendship into an even closer partnership by formally agreeing a new strategic plan for the next decade spanning cyber, tech, trade and defence”. In addition, “Israel will officially become a Tier One cyber partner for the UK, recognising how much more we can achieve together as tech leaders with world-class cybersecurity expertise.”
• With regard to Iran, the pair wrote: “We will also work night and day to prevent the Iranian regime from ever becoming a nuclear power. The clock is ticking, which heightens the need for close cooperation with our partners and friends to thwart Tehran’s ambitions.”
• Israel and the UK had already planned to host reciprocal prime ministerial visits to mark Israel’s 75^th anniversary. Prime Minister Netanyahu is also due to visit London and meet Prime Minister Sunak this week.
• Netanyahu’s visit to London will complete a series of European capitals having visited Paris, Berlin and Italy in the last month, with the Iranian threat being his top priority.
• In parallel to the visit the UK yesterday announced sanctions on seven senior officials of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Five responsible for managing the IRGC’s investments and two senior commanders.
• The UK government confirmed it has “sanctions in place on the IRGC in its entirety. Since October, the UK has imposed new sanctions on more than a dozen senior IRGC officials under our Iran human rights regime, most recently on a number of senior commanders on 20 February.”
• Foreign Secretary Cleverly explained, they were “responsible for funding militant groups associated with the IRGC’s external operations arm, the IRGC-Quds Force. The Quds force is responsible for carrying out lethal activities outside of Iran by, for example, providing training, funding and weapons to groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas. It has been accused of setting up fake companies in Syria to support the development of Quds Force activities in Syria.”

Looking ahead: In light of the domestic turbulence, it is expected that Netanyahu will be greeted by protestors against the judicial reform.

• In the months ahead Prime Minister Sunak it is anticipated to make a reciprocal visit to Israel.
• Later this year Israel and the UK are expected to conclude a new upgraded free trade agreement, focus on tech and innovation.  Cleverly said yesterday, “The new trade deal, by lowering barriers and championing free trade, is a key priority for both governments.”