Hostages: The anticipated ceasefire to allow for the release of Israeli hostages has been delayed until tomorrow morning at the earliest.

• National Security Council Director Tzahi Hanegbi announced the holdup shortly after midnight last night, with Israeli officials briefing that “the delay isn’t substantive, but technical… We expect that the deal will be implemented and that this is a last-minute delay.”
• Mossad Director David Barnea and Maj. Gen. (res.) Nitzan Alon, in Qatar to finalise the agreement, discovered “holes” in a few of the clauses.
• According to Israeli sources, although a list of names has been submitted, the delay is because Hamas has not confirmed their health status. In addition, according to the terms of agreement, Hamas is expected to release the names of each batch to be freed the night before.
• Qatari officials said that talks were “progressing positively” and to expect an announcement on timings in the next hours.
• Diego Engelbert, whose sister Karina, brother-in-law Ronen and their daughters Mika and Yuval are hostages in Gaza said of the delay: “These ups and downs are killing us. We were holding onto a ray of hope and once again it’s gone — this is part of the psychological terror we go through on a daily basis.”

Palestinian Prisoners: In return for 50 hostages Israel has agreed to release 150 Palestinian prisoners.

• According to the provisions of the agreement. Hamas can extend the pause in fighting by a an extra day for every additional 10 hostages released, beyond the initial 50. In that scenario, Israeli will in turn release an additional 30 prisoners.
• Therefore Israel has released a list of 300 prisoners eligible for the release, that meet the agreed criteria, male prisoners under the age of 18 and female prisoners, all of whom have not committed murder. Although many faced charges of attempted murder.
• Many of the prisoner committed stabbing attacks, or attempted stabbings. Others carried out car-ramming attacks or helped prepare explosive devises. One 15 year old boy shot and injured two Israelis with an improvised submachine in East Jerusalem.
• The youngest on the list includes five 14 years old boys, the oldest is a 59-year-old woman.
• The prisoners are mostly from the West Bank with a few who infiltrated from Gaza and 74 from East Jerusalem.
• The list includes multi affiliated prisoners, including from Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Fatah, and other smaller terror organisations. Some of them have no affiliation.
• Many of the youths are in prison under administrative detention as their trial has not yet taken place, with the majority of the list male teenagers arrested in the past two years.

Gaza Strip: The IDF this morning announced it had struck some 300 sites over the last day, including command centres, tunnels, weapons depots, weapon manufacturing sites and anti-tank missile launch positions.

• IDF continue to make advances in Jabaliya, while combat engineers found and destroyed a Hamas tunnel shaft in Beit Hanoun.
• The IDF yesterday announced the deaths of two soldiers in northern Gaza, taking the death toll since the beginning of ground operations to 70.
• Meanwhile, the IDF yesterday confirmed it had destroyed some 400 terror tunnel shafts in the Strip since the start of the ground incursion.
• This morning, sirens warned of incoming rocket fire in both Kerem Shalom, on the Israel-Gaza border, and in Ashkelon in southern Israel. Despite advances, Hamas are still able to launch rockets, now almost exclusively from the southern Gaza. Overall, the have fired over 10,000 rockets.

The north: This morning, air raid sirens sounded across the north as around 50 rockets fired from Lebanon towards northern Israel.

• This is the most intense barrage of rockets fired from the north in the last few years.
• Hezbollah claimed early this morning that five of its terrorists, including Abbas Raad, son of the head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc Mohammed Raad, had been killed in clashes on the northern border.
• Lebanese sources further claimed that the five had been killed in an Israeli strike yesterday on a house in Beit Yahun, southern Lebanon.
• Hezbollah also announced yesterday that it would respect any ceasefire agreed between Israel and Hamas, despite not being a party to the negotiations.

Context: Prime Minister Netanyahu yesterday said that he believed that the first hostage release would lead to others. “The combined military and diplomatic effort led to the ripe conditions for the return of our hostages. I believe this combination will also facilitate the release of additional hostages in the next stages,” he said.

• Netanyahu emphasised, “the outline that has been achieved does not include the release of murderers. It does include visits by Red Cross representatives to the hostages and the delivery of medicines to them. I heard that there is someone denying this. The Red Cross says that it has not heard; then here is the explicit clause: ‘The Red Cross will be allowed to visit the remaining hostages and provide them with needed medicine.’ I expect the Red Cross to do its work.”
• In a further example of support from the British Government, Foreign Minister Lord Cameron is visiting Israel today. He spent this morning visiting Kibbutz Be’eri and witnessing firsthand the destruction caused by Hamas on October 7th.
• The IDF has completed its encirclement of Jabaliya, one the last remaining Hamas strongholds in the north of the Gaza Strip.
• White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby last night told a US Jewish event that he expects the war to continue after the pause to release the hostages. “The fight is not over. The war is not over. The threat that Hamas poses is still real and still viable to the Israeli people,” he said, adding that the US would “continue to make sure that we’re giving [Israel] the tools the capabilities the weapons systems that they need to continue to go after Hamas.”
• There is grave concern over this morning’s escalation in the north. Despite regular clashes on Israel’s northern border, until now Hezbollah has not previously escalated the conflict to the extent feared. The assessment has been that neither it, nor its Iranian patron, see it as in their interest to provoke a full-scale war at this time.
• Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen yesterday warned the UN Security Council that Hezbollah must be disarmed if the risk of a regional war is to be avoided.“For the good of regional stability and to avoid further escalation, the next session of the UN Security Council must adopt a totally different approach in order to end the dangerous violations by Hezbollah and other terrorist groups on the border,” he wrote.
• UN Security Council Resolution 1701 calls the disarming of non-state forces in Lebanon, but this has never been implemented.
• Lebanese sources have suggested the temporary ceasefire also relates to  the north, but Israel officials have not confirmed this
• The IDF said yesterday that one of its fighter jets had shot down an incoming cruise missile over the Red Sea, close to Eilat, believed to have been fired by the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.
• Since the beginning of Israel’s operation in the Gaza Strip, the US and Saudi Arabia have shot down multiple missiles fired by the Houthis towards Eilat.

Looking ahead: If there are no more delays the temporary ceasefire could be announced today and go into effect tomorrow morning, with the first tranche of hostages to be freed later in the day.

• For the duration of the pause, IDF soldiers are expected to remain in battle positions inside northern Gaza, ever vigilant that Hamas has broken ceasefire agreements in the past.
• With the pause agreed and hostages released, significant humanitarian aid, including fuel is expected to enter into Gaza from Egypt

Hostage deal:  On Tuesday night the cabinet approved the deal to release 50 hostages from Gaza.

• At the end of a long meeting in which ministers received a detailed security briefing, thirty-five ministers voted in favour and only the three ministers (from Jewish Power) voted against.
• The deal was also backed by the heads of the security establishment: the army, Shin Bet and Mossad.
• The arrangement calls for an initial four day pause in fighting.
• Over the four days Hamas will release 30 children, eight mothers and twelve elderly women, all alive.
• In return Israel will release around 150 Palestinian terrorists who were not convicted of murder.
• In addition, hundreds of trucks with humanitarian aid, medical aid and fuel will enter the entire Gaza Strip.
• Hamas claims that Israel would entirely stop the use of aircraft in the southern Gaza Strip for four days. In the northern Gaza Strip, aerial activity will be halted for six hours every day, between 1000 – 1600.
• The humanitarian corridor will remain open allowing Gazans to leave the north for the south, but not to return to the north.
• The deal will see three Palestinian minors or women serving prison sentences in Israel released for every Israeli who is freed.
• At this point the deal only includes Israeli civilians, not soldiers or foreign nationals.
• The names of the Palestinian terrorists who are to be released will be published later today on an official website, after which anyone who wishes to petition the High Court of Justice against their release will have 24 hours to do so.
• The deal could be extended; for every release of ten more Israeli hostages there will be an additional day of paused hostilities.
• The deal is expected to go into effect on Thursday morning.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed that as part of the deal International Red Cross officials would be visiting the remaining hostages.

Inside Gaza Strip: The IDF released a photo showing they have breached the blast proof door in the tunnel found underneath the Shifa hospital.

• By gaining access inside, the IDF are understood to be cautiously exploring the tunnel, wary that it could be booby trapped, in an effort to gather intelligence and then decommission it.
• Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) announced the death of one of the Israeli hostages, Hannah Katzir, a 77 year old lady from Kibbutz Nir Oz. Her husband Rami was killed on October 7 when she was kidnapped. Her family confirmed that she was frail and had expressed grave concern for her survival without her regular medication.
• Earlier in the day IDF Chief of Staff Halevi met with reserve soldiers in the Gaza Strip. He told them, “The ground operations create better conditions for the return of the hostages, and we will continue with this pressure.”
• The IDF continued its advances on the ground in northern Gaza an air strikes on Hamas targets in the south. 

The north: Hezbollah claimed 13 attacks on Israel throughout yesterday.

• Early yesterday evening, multiple rockets were launched towards Israel’s Western and Upper Galilee regions, causing sirens to sound in Kiryat Shmona and other communities. The IDF responded with fire to the source of the attacks.
• Four Hamas terrorists were killed in an Israeli drone strike in Chaatiyeh, southern Lebanon yesterday. Unconfirmed social media reports suggested that one of the dead was Khalil Kharaz, deputy commander of Hamas’s Lebanon wing.
• Earlier, Lebanese officials claimed that two journalists and a civilian were killed when the IDF struck multiple Hezbollah anti-tank missile squads in southern Lebanon.
• This strike came in response to three anti-tank guided missiles fired from Lebanon at the Metula area of northern Israel yesterday morning. An Israeli army post on the border also received mortar fire.
• In response to the Israeli strike, Hezbollah claimed to have fired two anti-tank missiles at the northern community of Menara.
• Also yesterday, the IDF launched interceptor missiles at several “suspicious aerial targets” – likely drones – which entered Israel’s northern airspace.

Context: The deal came about following intense diplomatic efforts from the US in consultation with the Qataris. On the US side, direct pressure was brought to bear by President Biden, enhanced by the experienced mediation of CIA Director William Burns.

• Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani led the interaction with Hamas officials, many of whom are based in Doha. Mossad chief Barnea represented Israel in these conversations.
• Qatar hosts the external Hamas leadership, and conducted its discussions with them, but the negotiations also required buy-in from the Hamas leadership in Gaza.
• This process was complemented by a second track involving the head of the Shin Bet Ronen Bar, and the head of Egyptian intelligence Abbas Kamel. This is a more familiar track: Egyptian intelligence has often previously acted as conduit between Israel and Hamas.
• Israel’s security cabinet was thought to have been split on the wisdom of agreeing to deal involving a pause in fighting in Gaza. Defence Minister Gallant favoured pressing home Israel’s advantage, and apparently argued that the more Hamas was degraded, the better a hostage deal could be extracted from its leaders. Ministers Gantz and Eisenkot, as well as Shas leader Aryeh Deri, led the argument in favour of the deal, believing that it was the best, and possible the only, deal Israel could expect to receive.
• The impassioned publicity campaign waged by the families, which included a march from Tel Aviv to the prime minister’s office, was also effective in persuading the political echelon to favour a deal.
• Reflecting the debate in the Israeli media, Yediot Ahronot features two opposing opinions, Nahum Barnea arguing in favour and Yossi Yehoshua against.
• Barnea wrote “the options were bad and the decisions were hard… This isn’t a deal. A deal is a dirty word when talking about a terrorist organisation. This is blackmail, coercion. But in the situation that has developed, Israel has no choice but to pay the price. The alternative of forsaking the hostages a second time, after they were first forsaken on October 7, would have been far worse and far more dangerous. Beyond the price it could end up costing in blood and lives, it would have left an indelible stain on the Israeli government and the IDF.”
• Yehoshua counters that “the enemy is an irrational actor, a shockingly vicious murderer who is also familiar with Israeli society’s soft underbelly. Just like he recognised the domestic crisis as a window of opportunity for an attack, so too has he utilised the hostages to get oxygen and to prepare for what comes next. From his standpoint, the price is negligible: he doesn’t care about the people of Gaza, and he definitely doesn’t care about the Israeli women and children. Somehow, the monster who sent terrorists to butcher us will still get legitimacy thanks to 50 hostages, out of more than 200, and that legitimacy will help him secure a total ceasefire… the IDF’s offensive momentum will be stopped…”
• In the latest sign of coordination between the Axis of Resistance, Hezbollah leader Nasrallah met with senior Hamas officials based in Lebanon.
• Lebanese sources have suggested that the ceasefire will also include the northern border, but Israel has made no official commitment to this.
• Meanwhile in the West Bank on Tuesday, 5 Palestinians were killed in two IDF drones strikes in Tulkarm.  Among those targeted was Rami al-Shumali, the commander of Fatah’s al-Aqsa Martyrs Battalions in the area, together with operatives from PIJ.

Humanitarian efforts: According to Coordinator of Government Activity in the Territories (COGAT), the following efforts are being made:

• Jordan is setting up a field hospital in Khan Yunis, which is expected to be operational in a couple of days.
• A United Arab Emirates field hospital finalised the planning process and expected to be set up in the coming days.
• 27 Wounded children left Gaza to receive medical care in the UAE.
• 86 cancer patients left Gaza to receive medical care in Turkey.
• So far, 354 ill and wounded have exited the Gaza Strip for medical treatment in Egypt, the UAE and Turkey.
• On Tuesday, 6,500 more people evacuated south. So far, over 350,000 people have evacuated from the northern Gaza Strip to its southern part.

Looking ahead: The ceasefire is expected to begin at 0600 local time tomorrow.

• The first group of 10-12 Israeli hostages are expected to be released a few hours later.
• The hostages will be handed over to the Red Cross and then on to the IDF where they will undergo medical examination and then be reunited with their families.
• It is anticipated that they will all receive a security debrief with extra care taken to provide the children with appropriate paediatric care.

Hostages: There is mounting speculation over an arrangement that will see the release of around 52 hostages: children, their mothers as well as possibly the sick and elderly held captive inside Gaza.

• Negotiations, mediated by the US and Qatar, are thought to have reached an understanding that in return for the hostages, Israel will agree to a four or five day ceasefire, allow 200 trucks a day of humanitarian aid to enter Gaza from Egypt and release between 150-250 Palestinian prisoners – women and teenagers.
• The outstanding issues are thought to be logistical, including the sequencing of the release and Hamas’s insistence that the ceasefire includes Israel halting its aerial intelligence via monitoring drones. Hamas claim that they will spend the first day of the ceasefire finding the kidnapped children whose location they do not know, but can’t do this if they are being tracked.
• Another demand of Hamas is to allow humanitarian aid to also reach the northern Gaza Strip.

Shifa Hospital: The IDF continued their operation in the northern Gaza Strip, including in the Shifa Hospital compound.

• The IDF presented more evidence that the hospital was used as terrorist infrastructure.
• IDF troops exposed a 55-metre-long terror tunnel 10 meters deep underneath the hospital complex. The IDF noted, “A deep staircase leads to the entrance of the tunnel shaft, which consists of various defence means including a blast-proof door and a firing hole. This type of door is used by the Hamas terrorist organisation to block Israeli forces from entering the command centres and the underground assets belonging to Hamas. The tunnel shaft was uncovered in the area of the hospital underneath a shed alongside a vehicle containing numerous weapons including RPGs, explosives, and Kalashnikov rifles.”
• The IDF also releases footage, taken from CCTV at the hospital entrance, showing Hamas terrorists forcibly transporting hostages – a Nepalese civilian and a Thai civilian, who were kidnapped from Israeli territory.
• The IDF also found the bodies of two of the hostages in different buildings near the hospital.
• An IDF vehicle stolen during the massacre can also be seen inside the hospital area.
• The IDF continues to operate in other neighbourhoods to the West of Gaza City. During operations, the IDF arrested over 100 Hamas terrorists, three of whom are from the elite Nukhba unit which took part in the October 7th Massacre. The IDF have also killed a dozen more combatants, including three additional Hamas company commanders.

Iranian proxies: Attacks from Hezbollah towards northern Israel appeared to intensify again on Sunday, with 11 attacks recorded across the length of the Lebanese border.

• Meanwhile, in the Red Sea off the coast of Yemen, the Houthis hijacked a cargo ship partly owned by an Israeli businessman.
• Israel, according to the Israeli Prime Miniter’s office, “strongly condemns the Iranian attack against an international vessel. The ship, which is owned by a British company and is operated by a Japanese firm, was hijacked with Iran guidance by the Yemenite Houthi militia. Onboard the vessel are 25 crew members of various nationalities including Ukrainian, Bulgarian, Filipino and Mexican. No Israelis are onboard. This is another act of Iranian terrorism and constitutes a leap forward in Iran’s aggression against the citizens of the free world, with international consequences regarding the security of the global shipping lanes.”

Context: The evidence presented from Shifa appears to back up the IDF claim, “that numerous buildings in the hospital’s complex are used by Hamas as cover for terrorist infrastructure and activities. This is further evidence of the cynical manner [in which] Hamas uses the residents of the Gaza Strip as a human shield for their murderous terrorist activities.”

• Having initially entered from the north and the centre, bisecting the Strip and surrounding Gaza City, the IDF is targeting other Hamas strongholds in the west.
• The overall fighting remains intense. Over the weekend, several more IDF soldiers have been killed, taking the total in over three weeks of the ground campaign to 65.
• According to military intelligence, of Hamas’s 24 Battalions, 14 are in the northern half of the Strip, 10 of which are now significantly depleted. Those that escaped are thought to have  joined the remaining four.
• In his weekly address on Saturday night, Prime Minister Netanyahu added a third objective of the war (after destroying Hamas and returning the captives), that on the days after, “it is impossible to put in Gaza an authority that supports terror, abets terror, and pays terrorists.” Adding, “there is another condition that I set for the day after: the IDF will have complete freedom of action in the Gaza Strip against any threat. Only in this way will we guarantee the demilitarisation of Gaza.”
• This appears to rule out the Palestinian Authority (PA) assuming control, which puts the Israeli government at odds with the US. However Netanyahu also believes, “we will reach an agreement with the US also about this.”
• On Sunday the PA appeared to compound their problematic stance, releasing a statement suggesting that it was Israeli helicopters that bombed and killed Israeli civilians on October 7 during the Supernova music festival. They later deleted the statement.
• Netanyahu responded harshly, calling the statement “utterly preposterous.” He added, “it isn’t enough that for 44 days Abu Mazen has refused to condemn the terrible massacre, now his men are denying that massacre and are turning the tables on Israel. Abu Mazen the Holocaust-denier is now denying the Hamas-ISIS massacre.
• In a more supportive stance, Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad of Bahrain condemned Hamas. He described the October 7th massacre of Israelis as “barbaric” and demanded the release of the Israeli hostages.
• Regarding the potential hostage deal, the inner war cabinet appears divided. Ministers Gantz and Eisenkot have argued that this opportunity won’t return and that this is the right time to secure the release of the women and children. Defence Minister Gallant favours continuing the fighting in order to defeat Hamas. There is concern that the ceasefire will give Hamas valuable days to reorganise and resupply.

Looking ahead: Tonight the War Cabinet will meet with representatives of the families of the hostages.

• Any deal will need to be approved by the full cabinet.

What happened: The IDF yesterday recovered the body of Yehudit Weiss, a 65-year-old mother of five kidnapped by Hamas from Kibbutz Be’eri on October 7^th.

• Weiss’s body was found in a building near Gaza City’s Shifa Hospital, along with military equipment, including assault rifles and RPGs.
• “To our sorrow, Yehudit was murdered by the terrorists in the Gaza Strip. And we didn’t get to her in time,” IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said.
• Weiss’s daughter Zemer said, “it’s important for us to say that we fought, we battled in every possible way to bring mom, grandma Yehudit home. For us, it is too late, but it is important for us to support all the families of the hostages, and to tell the world, bring them home now, so that for them it is not too late, like it was for us.”
• The IDF also announced the recovery of the body of 19-year-old Cpl. Noa Marciano, another hostage, whose death it announced earlier this week.
• Troops discovered Marciano’s body in another building near Shifa hospital, with Prime Minister Netanyahu last night telling CBS that Israel has solid information that some of the hostages were held in the hospital.
• Asked about the prospects of a deal being reached to free some of the hostages, Netanyahu said “we are closer than before we began the ground action. The ground action has put pressure on Hamas to achieve a ceasefire. We’ll have a temporary ceasefire if we can get our hostages.”
• The IDF continued its attacks in Gaza last night, including air strikes and ground battles.
• Troops also raided a Palestinian Islamic Jihad outpost in northern Gaza, locating Iran-made Badr-3 rockets, drones, and other weapons.
• In raids on Hamas targets, troops founds assault rifles, explosive devices, RPGs, anti-tank missile launchers, and other equipment.
• In the north, the IAF attacked Hezbollah targets last night, and Hezbollah fired several anti-tank missiles at IDF posts near Biranit and Rosh Hanikra.
• Syria also claimed that Israel fired missiles at targets in the area of Damascus last night.
• In the West Bank, the IDF says it killed five Palestinian gunmen during an overnight counter-terror operation in Jenin.
• Seven wanted suspects were arrested in the raid, and weapons captured.
• US Secretary of State Blinken spoke with Minister Gantz yesterday. They discussed the hostages and increasing humanitarian aid for the Gaza Strip. Blinken also expressed US concern over settler violence in the West Bank.

Context: Weiss’s husband Shmulik was murdered by Hamas in its rampage through Be’eri, his body discovered in the family safe room a week and a half later.

• A member of the Combat Intelligence Collection Corps 414th unit, Marciano was serving at the Nahal Oz IDF base when it was attacked by Hamas.
• On Monday, Hamas had released a video of Marciano four days after having been kidnapped, identifying herself and reciting the names of her parents and her hometown. The video then showed her dead body.
• Hostage negotiations are facilitated by a series of talks via the US, Egypt and Qatar and then onto Hamas leaders. The process is complicated by limited contact with Hamas leaders inside Gaza.
• The contours of the deal being discussed are thought to comprise:
  • Hamas will release 50 hostages, comprising children with their mothers.
  • Israel will agree to three to five days of ceasefire.
  • Israel will allow in more fuel and humanitarian aid.
  • Israel will release 150 prisoners, including minors over 16, who have not committed murder.
• The security cabinet is thought to be divided on its approach to such a deal, with Defence Minister Gallant said to believe that Hamas is on the verge of collapse, with three IDF battalions making swift advances in Gaza.
• Gallant foresees this being the first of several hostage negotiations and so is eager to reduce the concessions made by Israel in return for the first group of hostage releases.
• Ministers, and war cabinet members, Gantz and Eisenkot are thought to be more pessimistic and think that the deal currently on offer might well be the only offer Israel receives.
• Any hostage deal will first be approved by the security cabinet, but according to Israeli law the whole cabinet needs to vote on it.
• The IDF has provided further evidence of Hamas’s widespread use of hospitals. A tunnel shaft with a car that was supposed to be used in the attack on the Gaza periphery communities was found inside Shifa Hospital, with multiple weapons inside.
• Weapons were also discovered in Al Quds Hospital, and a terrorist tunnel in Rantisi Hospital.
• Israel does not generally comment on attacks on targets in Syria.
• The US has expressed increasing concern over both the humanitarian situation in Gaza and the situation of patients and staff inside hospitals. It has also supported Israeli evidence of Hamas’s use of hospitals.
• Netanyahu said that Israel was engaging with hospitals “very gingerly because we’re trying to do the moral thing, the right thing, to deprive Hamas of having this safe zone in a hospital, but at the same time to neutralise its use as a command centre for terror. And so far we’ve achieved that.”

Looking ahead: Family members of the hostages are currently on the fourth day of a march from Tel Aviv to the Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem, which they are expected to reach on Saturday. They aim to keep the focus on the hostages and pressure the government to prioritise their safe return.

• Israel continues to search for tunnel shafts within the Shifa hospital complex, in the knowledge that Hamas had time to remove the most incriminating evidence and for key commanders to escape among the civilians

Gaza Strip: According to the IDF, they discovered an “operational command centre, weapons, and technological assets in the MRI building of the Shifa Hospital.”

• “In another department in the hospital, the soldiers located an operational command centre and technological assets belonging to Hamas, indicating that the terrorist organisation uses the hospital for terrorist purposes.”
• In the initial entry, the IDF killed several gunmen at the entrance to the hospital. According to Al-Jazeera, 200 Palestinians were arrested.
• The IDF also took over Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh’s residence (Haniyeh is based in Qatar), which according to the IDF, “was used as terrorist infrastructure, and often served as a meeting point for Hamas’ senior leaders to direct terror attacks against Israeli civilians and IDF soldiers.”
• In addition, during operations in the Shati neighbourhood, “IDF troops located and destroyed a Hamas naval forces weapons cache, containing diving gear, explosive devices, and weapons. IDF troops also struck terrorists and located weapons including explosive belts, explosive barrels, RPGs, anti-tank missiles, comms equipment, and intelligence documents.”
• In the course of the fighting two more IDF soldiers were killed, taking the total to 50 since the ground operation began.
• According to Hamas, the Gazan death toll has reached 11,500. It is not clear how many of them were combatants.
• Israel also allowed 23,000 litres of diesel to enter into Gaza via Egypt under the auspice of the UN.

Hostages: There is continued speculation for a deal.

• The latest contours suggest:
  • Hamas release 50 hostages, comprising children with their mothers.
  • Israel will agree to three to five days of ceasefire.
  • Israel will allow in more fuel and humanitarian aid.
  • Israel will release 150 prisoners, including minors over 16, who have not committed murder.
• The mechanism suggests that the ceasefire will only start once the first batch are released. There will then be a staggered release on both sides each day of the ceasefire.
• Israel is also demanding that Hamas takes full responsibility for all the children, so as not to claim that some are held by other factions or cannot be found.
• Israel has further demands, with some government officials arguing that by continuing the fighting at this point they can extract further concessions, including the release of closer to 100 hostages including all the children and their parents.
• The negotiations are facilitated by a series of talks via the US, Egypt and Qatar and then onto Hamas leaders. The process is complicated by limited contact with Hamas leaders inside Gaza.
• Any deal will first be approved by the security cabinet, but according to Israeli law the whole cabinet needs to vote on it. Last night a meeting to convene the full cabinet was cancelled.

UK Parliament: A Scottish National Party motion calling for a ceasefire in the House of Commons was defeated by 293 votes against to 125 in favour last night.

• The Israeli embassy in London welcomed the result of the vote, saying “the UK parliament vote this evening shows a strong moral clarity.”
• Eight shadow junior members from the UK opposition Labour party either resigned or were fired last night after rebelling against the party in voting for a ceasefire.
• A total of 56 Labour MPs voted for the motion, with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer having warned in advance that shadow cabinet members would face consequences for doing so.
• Starmer has continued to back Israel’s right to defend itself, and to support the US position, shared with the UK government, in favour of humanitarian pauses rather than a ceasefire.
• His position has caused divisions within the party, with a number of local government officials across the country resigning from the party.
• Saying he regretted the decisions of his frontbench colleagues, Starmer affirmed that “alongside leaders around the world, I have called throughout for adherence to international law, for humanitarian pauses to allow access for aid, food, water, utilities and medicine, and have expressed our concerns at the scale of civilian casualties.”
• He added: “leadership is about doing the right thing. That is the least the public deserves. And the least that leadership demands.”
• Labour’s own motion calling for humanitarian pauses was defeated by 290 to 183 votes.
• Elsewhere in Parliament, dozens of British MPs yesterday viewed a screening of the IDF’s raw footage of October 7^th obtained from Hamas bodycams.

UN Security Council: The council last night agreed a resolution introduced by Malta calling for the implementation of “urgent and extended humanitarian pauses and corridors throughout the Gaza Strip”.

• It further called for “all parties [to] comply with their obligations under international law, notably with regard to the protection of civilians, especially children.”
• The resolution made no condemnation of Hamas, nor mentioned its devastating attack of October 7^th in which at least 1,200 Israelis were killed.
• The US, UK, and Russia abstained from the vote, resulting in a 12-0 vote in favour. US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield explained the American abstention by saying that “there’s no excuse for failing to condemn these acts of terror. Let’s be crystal clear … Hamas set this conflict in motion.”
• Russia proposed an amendment calling for a more immediate ceasefire. It was defeated when it failed to gain sufficient votes, hence its abstention from vote on the main resolution.
• In response, Israeli ambassador to the UN Gilad Erdan said the resolution “will have no meaning in practice” and that Israel “is acting according to international law, while the Hamas terrorists will not read the resolution at all and will not act on it.”
• The Israeli Foreign Ministry also responded, saying there would be “no room for extended humanitarian pauses as long as 239 hostages are still in the hands of Hamas terrorists.”
• The vote was the first time the council succeeded in passing a resolution since October 7^th, with four previous resolutions having failed – one introduced by Brazil was vetoed by the US, a US resolution was vetoed by Russia and China, and two Russian-drafted resolutions failed to get the minimum yay votes.

Context: From the Israeli perspective the Shifa hospital has been considered an infamous Hamas stronghold for over a decade.

• With IDF advances over the last week, Hamas had time to remove the most incriminating evidence and for key commanders to escape among the civilians. Meanwhile, searches continue for tunnel shafts within the hospital complex.
• Whilst not capturing or killing senior Hamas leadership, the IDF’s more cautious approach to the hospital bought it important credit, especially with the Biden administration, allowing them to continue operations.
• Hamas deliberately used the hospital as a base, precisely because they felt it gave them immunity from aerial attack. It could also use the hospital’s power supply for operating the underground tunnel system.
• The IDF’s public campaign of messages to the Gazan population and direct conversations with hospital staff led to the evacuation of around 50,000 people who were in the hospital compound a week ago, down to an estimated 1,500, roughly half patients, half staff.
• In parallel to the elite commandos that continue to search the hospital, the IDF also brought in vital medical equipment, including incubators for the premature babies, and to ensure they keep their power supply.
• Israel’s position remains that a pause or extended ceasefire is out of the question as long as Hamas and its fellow Gazan terrorists retain the hostages.
• It is also disinclined to provide Hamas time to regroup, re-arm and jeopardise the Israeli gains in the northern Strip, and is concerned that, based on experience from previous rounds of fighting, international pressure will only increase if it re-engages after an extensive pause.
• In the north of Israel, Hezbollah continued to launch rockets into Israel. Yesterday 20 rockets landed in open areas.
  • One landed in the town of Shlomi.
  • Three anti-tank missiles were fired toward IDF positions on the border.
  • In all these instances, the IDF returned fire to the source.
• This morning there was a terror attack on the tunnels road south of Jerusalem. Initial reports suggest three terrorists opened fire, four people were injured one in critical condition, the three gunmen were shot and killed.

Looking ahead: The search of the hospital is expected to continue. In order to maintain legitimacy the IDF is conscious to keep their activity as transparent as possible, and continue to allow international media to be embedded among the troops.

• With the IDF in control of northern Gaza there remains significant Hamas military infrastructure in the south. Eastern neighbourhoods of the southern Gaza city of Khan Yunis have been warned to evacuate their homes to proscribed safe zones elsewhere in the south.
• It is anticipated that the UK’s new Foreign Secretary, Lord Cameron, will visit Israel soon.

Lebanon: Sunday saw the most serious escalation in the north. In a series of attacks 18 Israelis; soldiers and civilians were injured. In a series of attacks, 18 Israelis – soldiers and civilians – were injured.

• In Moshav Dolev, four vehicles suffered a direct hit from anti-tank missile fire, and ten civilians were wounded. Of the wounded, six worked for the Electricity Corporation and were there to make repairs. One of the workers is in critical condition and five others in serious condition.
• In the area of Manara, seven soldiers were wounded from an anti-tank missile.
• Around 15 rockets were fired towards the Western Galilee, including Acco and Kiryat Bialik. Four were intercepted, the rest fell in open areas.
• There were also rockets and mortars fired at other areas, including Kiryat Shmone and Gornot Hagalil.
• A further two or three attacks on IDF soldiers have not yet been confirmed.
• In response to the attacks, the IDF used an array of ground and air to strike a number of Hezbollah targets. At least three launch cells were targeted, along with other military infrastructure inside Lebanon.
• For the first time since the war began, more air raid sirens were heard in the north than in southern Israel.
• This morning, at least 20 more rockets have been fired from Lebanon into Northern Israel, with no injuries reported yet.

Gaza Strip: On Sunday, the IDF provided 300 litres of fuel for urgent medical purposes for the Shifa Hospital, however Hamas prevented the hospital from receiving the fuel.

• The fuel is currently outside the compound in jerry cans. Although the IDF are not yet fully in control of the area, they are said to be guarding the fuel so it is not expropriated by Hamas.
• In parallel, the IDF opened an additional passage to assist Gazan civilians to evacuate from the Shifa, Rantisi and Nasser hospitals
• The IDF are in direct contact with the Shifa Hospital director to coordinate safe passage allowing civilians to evacuate, on foot and by ambulances.
• Last week, there were around 60,000 people in the hospital compound, now down to 1,000.
• During the fighting, the IDF continued their impressive tactical successes, revealing how intercepting real time intel and relaying to the troops on the ground allowed infantry soldiers to kill seven terrorists within ten minutes.
• The IDF has struck over 15,000 terror targets, destroyed over 100 terror tunnel shafts and more than 6000 weapons while operating within the Gaza Strip.
• In the last day, two more soldiers have been killed, taking the total to 44 since the ground operation began.
• Israel estimates over 3,000 Hamas fighters have been killed, but neither side has released details. According to the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry, over 10,000 Palestinians have been killed.
• Israel is jointly coordinating efforts to bring in humanitarian aid, along with the US, Egypt, and the UN. More than 820 trucks containing approximately 13,200 tons of aid have entered into Gaza, including over 3,000 tons of food, 1,720+ tons of medical equipment, 600+ tons of equipment for temporary shelters and over 1.15 million litres of water.

Context: The escalation in the north compounds the strategic dilemmas for Israeli decision makers.

• The IDF remains focused on targeting and decommissioning Hamas military infrastructure, whilst pressuring Hamas to release hostages.
• In theory, the IDF has capacity to fight a second front simultaneously, with only 10 per cent of the Israeli Air Force committed to the south. However, the preference until now has been to keep the focus on the south and only then to turn to the north.
• There is a consensus in Israel that the northern border communities that have already been evacuated will not return to their homes unless the Hezbollah threat, and specifically their elite Radwan fighters remain poised on the border, is neutralised.
• The IDF’s objective is therefore to remove that immediate threat and push Hezbollah north, beyond the Litani River.
• There are efforts, led by the US and France, to find a diplomatic solution to remove Hezbollah from the south, but there is limited expectation this can succeed.
• Israel’s approach until now has been to target cells that launch attacks, either during or after, even sometimes beforehand. In this way that been These efforts have been successful in decommissioning Hezbollah’s capacity and have so far killed 73 Hezbollah operatives.
• Part of the calculation is how to respond to every attack in a calibrated manner that causes damage without provoking Hezbollah into a wider conflict.
• Following Hezbollah’s leader Nasrallah’s speech on Saturday, there was hope that this signified Hezbollah was deterred from a wider confrontation for three reasons:
  • Hezbollah has lost the element of surprise to launch an invasion of their Radwan force. The IDF is heavily deployed in the border, and the closest civilian communities have been evacuated.
  • The US military posture serves as a stark warning that an escalation will be met by a US response.
  • They see the pictures from Gaza, and hear Defence Minister Gallant’s warning to Beirut.
• However, others see Sunday’s attacks as evidence of Hezbollah’s objective to ratchet up the pressure on Israel, occupy their forces, threaten Israeli civilians, all whilst keeping the conflict below the threshold of all-out war.
• Meanwhile, there is ongoing speculation over a potential prisoner exchange. The latest formulation suggests 80 hostages; children, women and sick elderly would be released over a three to five day ceasefire which would allow increased aid to enter the Strip, including fuel. Israel would also release women and minors held in Israeli prisons.

Looking ahead: Only once the hospitals have been evacuated can the IDF fully target the terror infrastructure underneath.

• There is speculation that Israel is keen for Tony Blair to represent the international community and take the role of humanitarian coordinator for the Gaza Strip.,
• The Israeli government understands the need to restore the sense of security to residents of both the north and the south before they are able to return home.