Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Updated October 21, 2024

CIA Director meets Abbas

CIA Director William Burns, returning from a trip which included meetings with Israeli officials and with Palestinian Authority head Mahmoud Abbas, has said he fears that current Israeli-Palestinian violence echoes the pattern of the Second Intifada.

“I was a senior US diplomat 20 years ago during the Second Intifada,” said Burns, “and I’m concerned – as are my colleagues in the intelligence community – that a lot of what we’re seeing today has a very unhappy resemblance to some of those realities that we saw then too.”
Meanwhile, five terrorists were confirmed killed in an IDF raid targeting members of a cell affiliated with Hamas’s al-Qassam Brigades in the Aqabat Jaber refugee camp, near Jericho, on Monday.
Troops entered the camp in pursuit of cell members believed to have carried out an attempted attack in Vered Yeriho, near the Almog junction, on January 28th, following which Israeli forces tightened restrictions around Jericho.
The Shin Bet and IDF Intelligence Directorate discovered that those responsible were in an apartment in the camp and planning further attacks.
Having identified the apartment, troops came under fire and responded in kind, killing gunmen, all of whom are thought to have belonged to the cell.
Troops also discovered a significant and sophisticated arsenal of weapons, many of which – including rifles equipped with sniper scopes, Carlo submachine guns, and pistols – are comparable with the IDF’s own weapons.
The targets of the mission having been killed, forces then withdrew from the camp in the face of hundreds of locals, some of them armed.
No Israeli casualties were reported, while Palestinian media shared footage of a seemingly downed Israeli Sky Rider drone.
The raid also netted the arrest of senior Hamas official Shaker Amara, as well as relatives of the Vered Yeriho attackers.
Yesterday, Israeli officials indicated their belief that a car which exploded in Jenin in Monday evening was a prematurely detonated car bomb planned for use in an attack in revenge for the Jericho mission.
In separate incidents, a 17-year-old member of the Lion’s Den terrorist group was killed during clashes with Israeli forces in Nablus on Tuesday, while 22 Palestinians were also arrested in the village of Burkin, west of Jenin. This follows the arrest by Israeli forces on Sunday of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) leader Khader Adnan in the village of Arrabeh, near Jenin, on Sunday.
Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem predicted that the Jericho raid would “fuel a revolution” amongst Palestinians.

The Hamas Jericho cell, calling itself the Aqabat Jaber Battalion, is a new phenomenon, with the Vered Yeriho incident indicating an escalation in a city previously noted for its relative quiet.

Last Saturday, the Aqabat Jaber Battalion publicly announced itself with a local parade and public statement.
Monday’s IDF mission followed a previous raid targeting members of the cell last Saturday, in which at least 13 Palestinians were injured.
While several arrests of cell members were secured in that mission, those responsible for the Vered Yeriho attack were not among them.
In response to Saturday’s raid, the Aqabat Jaber Battalion announced a “days of rage” period, encouraging locals to initiate conflict with Israeli troops. “Let us all make them days of fire against the occupation,” a statement said, calling on Palestinians to “pour out their anger against the occupation.”
In the attempted attack on January 28th, four members of the cell travelling in two cars sought to open fire close to a restaurant but fled when one of their M-16 rifles jammed.
The gun failure averted what could have been a major terrorist attack, with over 30 people dining in the restaurant at the time.
While the past year has seen multiple Israeli raids into the West Bank, as part of Operation Breakwater, such operations have tended to target unaffiliated individual suspects or else localised militia independent (at least formally) from both the Palestinian Authority’s dominant Fatah faction and Hamas. An operation targeting such a well-resourced Hamas cell inside the West Bank is therefore unusual.
The location of the raid is also significant. Jericho, in the PA-run Area A has previously been considered a place of comparative quiet and relatively secure PA control. Such a significant Hamas base of operations, together with Israel’s assessment that its neutralising required a unilateral operation, provide further proof of the decline in the PA’s influence in the West Bank and its ability to be considered a reliable security partner.
The PA also opted to suspend formal security cooperation with Israel in the wake of the IDF’s raid in Jenin on January 27th, though informal cooperation is known to have been ongoing since then.
The operation was notable for being conducted not by one of the IDF units usually designated with such a mission, but by its gender-integrated Lions of the Jordan Valley Battalion, formed in 2014.
The chief of the military’s Central Command, Maj. Gen. Yehuda Fuchs, commended the “commanders and troops who led the battle” as “an example of professionalism and leadership.” The operation will doubtless signify an important endorsement of mixed battalions at a time when they are under fire from ultra-Orthodox political figures.
Egypt has continued mediation between Israel and the Palestinian factions. On Saturday, PIJ Secretary-General Ziyad al-Nakhaleh met in Cairo with Abbas Kamel, Director of the Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate to discuss recent violence, especially in the PIJ stronghold of Jenin, while Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh is due to arrive in Cairo shortly.

Israel is braced for a violent response from Hamas.

With several members of the cell killed or arrested, quiet from Jericho might reveal that Hamas’s presence in the city has been fatally degraded.

February 8, 2023

CIA Director says situation resembles Second Intifada

What happened: CIA Director William Burns, returning from a trip which included meetings with Israeli officials and with Palestinian Authority head Mahmoud Abbas, has said he fears that current Israeli-Palestinian violence echoes the pattern of the Second Intifada.

“I was a senior US diplomat 20 years ago during the Second Intifada,” said Burns, “and I’m concerned – as are my colleagues in the intelligence community – that a lot of what we’re seeing today has a very unhappy resemblance to some of those realities that we saw then too.”
Meanwhile, five terrorists were confirmed killed in an IDF raid targeting members of a cell affiliated with Hamas’s al-Qassam Brigades in the Aqabat Jaber refugee camp, near Jericho, on Monday.
Troops entered the camp in pursuit of cell members believed to have carried out an attempted attack in Vered Yeriho, near the Almog junction, on January 28^th, following which Israeli forces tightened restrictions around Jericho.
The Shin Bet and IDF Intelligence Directorate discovered that those responsible were in an apartment in the camp and planning further attacks.
Having identified the apartment, troops came under fire and responded in kind, killing gunmen, all of whom are thought to have belonged to the cell.
Troops also discovered a significant and sophisticated arsenal of weapons, many of which – including rifles equipped with sniper scopes, Carlo submachine guns, and pistols – are comparable with the IDF’s own weapons.
The targets of the mission having been killed, forces then withdrew from the camp in the face of hundreds of locals, some of them armed.
No Israeli casualties were reported, while Palestinian media shared footage of a seemingly downed Israeli Sky Rider drone.
The raid also netted the arrest of senior Hamas official Shaker Amara, as well as relatives of the Vered Yeriho attackers.
Yesterday, Israeli officials indicated their belief that a car which exploded in Jenin in Monday evening was a prematurely detonated car bomb planned for use in an attack in revenge for the Jericho mission.
In separate incidents, a 17-year-old member of the Lion’s Den terrorist group was killed during clashes with Israeli forces in Nablus on Tuesday, while 22 Palestinians were also arrested in the village of Burkin, west of Jenin. This follows the arrest by Israeli forces on Sunday of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) leader Khader Adnan in the village of Arrabeh, near Jenin, on Sunday.
Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem predicted that the Jericho raid would “fuel a revolution” amongst Palestinians.

Context: The Hamas Jericho cell, calling itself the Aqabat Jaber Battalion, is a new phenomenon, with the Vered Yeriho incident indicating an escalation in a city previously noted for its relative quiet.

Last Saturday, the Aqabat Jaber Battalion publicly announced itself with a local parade and public statement.
Monday’s IDF mission followed a previous raid targeting members of the cell last Saturday, in which at least 13 Palestinians were injured.
While several arrests of cell members were secured in that mission, those responsible for the Vered Yeriho attack were not among them.
In response to Saturday’s raid, the Aqabat Jaber Battalion announced a “days of rage” period, encouraging locals to initiate conflict with Israeli troops. “Let us all make them days of fire against the occupation,” a statement said, calling on Palestinians to “pour out their anger against the occupation.”
In the attempted attack on January 28^th, four members of the cell travelling in two cars sought to open fire close to a restaurant but fled when one of their M-16 rifles jammed.
The gun failure averted what could have been a major terrorist attack, with over 30 people dining in the restaurant at the time.
While the past year has seen multiple Israeli raids into the West Bank, as part of Operation Breakwater, such operations have tended to target unaffiliated individual suspects or else localised militia independent (at least formally) from both the Palestinian Authority’s dominant Fatah faction and Hamas. An operation targeting such a well-resourced Hamas cell inside the West Bank is therefore unusual.
The location of the raid is also significant. Jericho, in the PA-run Area A has previously been considered a place of comparative quiet and relatively secure PA control. Such a significant Hamas base of operations, together with Israel’s assessment that its neutralising required a unilateral operation, provide further proof of the decline in the PA’s influence in the West Bank and its ability to be considered a reliable security partner.
The PA also opted to suspend formal security cooperation with Israel in the wake of the IDF’s raid in Jenin on January 27^th, though informal cooperation is known to have been ongoing since then.
The operation was notable for being conducted not by one of the IDF units usually designated with such a mission, but by its gender-integrated Lions of the Jordan Valley Battalion, formed in 2014.
The chief of the military’s Central Command, Maj. Gen. Yehuda Fuchs, commended the “commanders and troops who led the battle” as “an example of professionalism and leadership.” The operation will doubtless signify an important endorsement of mixed battalions at a time when they are under fire from ultra-Orthodox political figures.
Egypt has continued mediation between Israel and the Palestinian factions. On Saturday, PIJ Secretary-General Ziyad al-Nakhaleh met in Cairo with Abbas Kamel, Director of the Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate to discuss recent violence, especially in the PIJ stronghold of Jenin, while Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh is due to arrive in Cairo shortly.

Looking ahead: Israel is braced for a violent response from Hamas.

With several members of the cell killed or arrested, quiet from Jericho might reveal that Hamas’s presence in the city has been fatally degraded.

February 3, 2023

Netanyahu meets Chad President

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met yesterday with the visiting President Mahamat Déby of Chad to formalise the two countries’ official relations by consecrating the African state’s new Ramat Gan-based embassy.

Netanyahu welcomed Déby by hailing the process as part of “Israel’s return to Africa and Africa’s return to Israel”. He noted: “We see these relations as extremely important—with a large country in the heart of Africa” and that “we have common goals of security, prosperity, and stability.”
On arrival in Israel on Tuesday night, Déby was met by Mossad chief David Barnea. The two went on to a celebratory meeting at Mossad headquarters.
In his own meeting with Déby, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant “raised the importance of narrowing the influence of Iran and Hezbollah in the Sahel region, as a key to ensuring stability, and thwarting the export of terrorism.”
Déby also met with Foreign Minister Eli Cohen, with the two discussing Israel’s humanitarian work in Chad, including the Mashav programme which trains Chadian medics in emergency and trauma care.
In a further step towards normalisation with a Muslim-majority African state, Foreign Minister Eli Cohen met with Sudanese leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in Khartoum yesterday, and confirmed on his return that a full peace treaty was scheduled to be signed by the end of the year, once Sudan has transitioned from a military to a civilian regime.
“Today’s visit… lays the foundations for a historic peace agreement with a strategic Arab and Muslim country” and “will promote regional stability and contribute to the national security of the State of Israel,” Cohen said.

The Chadian and Sudanese moves represent a success for Netanyahu’s longstanding campaign for improved relations with both Muslim-majority and African states.

In 2016, Netanyahu became the first Israeli Prime Minister to make a diplomatic trip to Africa in decades, as he visited Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda and Ethiopia. Later that year, Israel hosted senior ministers and officials from 13 West African states for a conference on agriculture.
In July 2021, former Chadian Prime Minister Moussa Faki Mahamat invited Israel to hold member status at the African Union, a move later revoked in a campaign led by Algeria and South Africa.
Both Netanyahu and Déby paid tribute to the latter’s father, Idriss Déby Into, who ruled Chad for more than thirty years before being killed fighting rebels in 2021.
The elder Déby had initiated the move to fully normalise Chadian relations with Israel in 2019, following decades of clandestine cooperation but official distance. In November 2018, he paid a surprise visit to Israel.
As one of the more militarily powerful members of the G5S states (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger), Chad bears much of the burden in stemming terrorism in the sub-Saharan Sahel region- a role for which it has sought Israeli support.
In 2018, Morocco (which normalised relations with Israel with the Abraham Accords in 2020) cut diplomatic ties with Iran, accusing it of using Hezbollah forces in the Sahel to support the Polisario Front group which fights an armed struggle for an independent Western Sahara.
Israel has no embassy in Chad, and it remains to seen if this will change or if relations will continue to be handled by Ben Bourgel, Israel’s ambassador in Senegal, who presented his diplomatic credentials to Déby last year and whose brief also includes Guinea and The Gambia.
In addition to cooperation on security, trade, and agriculture, as well as support in international bodies, normalisation with Chad would provide the potential for use of its airspace and ground facilities. This would allow flight times between Israel and South America to be reduced by several hours.
Channel 12, meanwhile, reports a likely connection between the Chadian and Sudanese processes, with al-Burhan and his deputy, Mohamed Hamdan Daklo, having visited Chad earlier this week.
The Sudanese move to resume the normalisation process follows its suspension after a military coup removed the previous regime in 2021.
Sudan became the fourth state to sign normalisation agreements with Israel in October 2020, as part of the Abraham Accords and in return for removal from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism.
In May 2022, in the wake of the coup, the Biden Administration announced that it was cancelling aid to Sudan, including that related to the Abraham Accords.
Despite this move, the current process to finalise normalisation upon Sudan’s transition to a civilian regime appears to have been encouraged by the US, and a subject of discussion during Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s recent visit to Israel.
Cohen previously visited Sudan in January 2021, when intelligence minister in the Netanyahu-Gantz government, while Israeli-Sudanese relations has been a key project for Ronen Levy (codenamed Maoz), the new Director General of the Foreign Ministry.
Cohen noted that the peace deal with Sudan would allows Sudanese residents of Israel to return to the country.
Sudan was, for decades, a key part of the wider Muslim world’s hostility to Israel. In 1967, it hosted the Arab League’s notorious Khartoum Conference at which the “three nos” – to peace, to recognition, and to negotiation – were adopted.
From the late 1970s, it became a refuge for Palestinian militants and a sponsor of Palestinian terror, particularly Hamas. In 2012, Israel carried out a missile strike on a Khartoum weapons factory it alleged was supplying Palestinian groups.
Between the late 1980s and the mid 2010s, Sudan also enjoyed warm relations with Iran. From 2014, however, it moved away from Tehran’s orbit and towards that of Iran’s enemy in Saudi Arabia.
The fall of its long-time dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019 saw fears that Iran might exploit the vacuum to reintroduce partnership, but such proved not to be the case, and normalisation will see Sudan join Chad in seeking mutual anti-terror cooperation with Israel.
Both Chad and Sudan continue to face criticism for their human rights records.

Israeli officials are briefing that the Chadian and Sudanese agreements might soon be followed by other normalisation deals with Mauritania and Indonesia.

Netanyahu is likely to pursue the extension of the Abraham Accords to include other Middle Eastern states, with Saudi Arabia representing the ultimate prize.

February 3, 2023

Chad opens embassy in Israel and Sudan deal moves closer

What happened: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met yesterday with the visiting President Mahamat Déby of Chad to formalise the two countries’ official relations by consecrating the African state’s new Ramat Gan-based embassy.

Netanyahu welcomed Déby by hailing the process as part of “Israel’s return to Africa and Africa’s return to Israel”. He noted: “We see these relations as extremely important—with a large country in the heart of Africa” and that “we have common goals of security, prosperity, and stability.”
On arrival in Israel on Tuesday night, Déby was met by Mossad chief David Barnea. The two went on to a celebratory meeting at Mossad headquarters.
In his own meeting with Déby, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant “raised the importance of narrowing the influence of Iran and Hezbollah in the Sahel region, as a key to ensuring stability, and thwarting the export of terrorism.”
Déby also met with Foreign Minister Eli Cohen, with the two discussing Israel’s humanitarian work in Chad, including the Mashav programme which trains Chadian medics in emergency and trauma care.
In a further step towards normalisation with a Muslim-majority African state, Foreign Minister Eli Cohen met with Sudanese leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in Khartoum yesterday, and confirmed on his return that a full peace treaty was scheduled to be signed by the end of the year, once Sudan has transitioned from a military to a civilian regime.
“Today’s visit… lays the foundations for a historic peace agreement with a strategic Arab and Muslim country” and “will promote regional stability and contribute to the national security of the State of Israel,” Cohen said.

Context: The Chadian and Sudanese moves represent a success for Netanyahu’s longstanding campaign for improved relations with both Muslim-majority and African states.

In 2016, Netanyahu became the first Israeli Prime Minister to make a diplomatic trip to Africa in decades, as he visited Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda and Ethiopia. Later that year, Israel hosted senior ministers and officials from 13 West African states for a conference on agriculture.
In July 2021, former Chadian Prime Minister Moussa Faki Mahamat invited Israel to hold member status at the African Union, a move later revoked in a campaign led by Algeria and South Africa.
Both Netanyahu and Déby paid tribute to the latter’s father, Idriss Déby Into, who ruled Chad for more than thirty years before being killed fighting rebels in 2021.
The elder Déby had initiated the move to fully normalise Chadian relations with Israel in 2019, following decades of clandestine cooperation but official distance. In November 2018, he paid a surprise visit to Israel.
As one of the more militarily powerful members of the G5S states (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger), Chad bears much of the burden in stemming terrorism in the sub-Saharan Sahel region- a role for which it has sought Israeli support.
In 2018, Morocco (which normalised relations with Israel with the Abraham Accords in 2020) cut diplomatic ties with Iran, accusing it of using Hezbollah forces in the Sahel to support the Polisario Front group which fights an armed struggle for an independent Western Sahara.
Israel has no embassy in Chad, and it remains to seen if this will change or if relations will continue to be handled by Ben Bourgel, Israel’s ambassador in Senegal, who presented his diplomatic credentials to Déby last year and whose brief also includes Guinea and The Gambia.
In addition to cooperation on security, trade, and agriculture, as well as support in international bodies, normalisation with Chad would provide the potential for use of its airspace and ground facilities. This would allow flight times between Israel and South America to be reduced by several hours.
Channel 12, meanwhile, reports a likely connection between the Chadian and Sudanese processes, with al-Burhan and his deputy, Mohamed Hamdan Daklo, having visited Chad earlier this week.
The Sudanese move to resume the normalisation process follows its suspension after a military coup removed the previous regime in 2021.
Sudan became the fourth state to sign normalisation agreements with Israel in October 2020, as part of the Abraham Accords and in return for removal from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism.
In May 2022, in the wake of the coup, the Biden Administration announced that it was cancelling aid to Sudan, including that related to the Abraham Accords.
Despite this move, the current process to finalise normalisation upon Sudan’s transition to a civilian regime appears to have been encouraged by the US, and a subject of discussion during Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s recent visit to Israel.
Cohen previously visited Sudan in January 2021, when intelligence minister in the Netanyahu-Gantz government, while Israeli-Sudanese relations has been a key project for Ronen Levy (codenamed Maoz), the new Director General of the Foreign Ministry.
Cohen noted that the peace deal with Sudan would allows Sudanese residents of Israel to return to the country.
Sudan was, for decades, a key part of the wider Muslim world’s hostility to Israel. In 1967, it hosted the Arab League’s notorious Khartoum Conference at which the “three nos” – to peace, to recognition, and to negotiation – were adopted.
From the late 1970s, it became a refuge for Palestinian militants and a sponsor of Palestinian terror, particularly Hamas. In 2012, Israel carried out a missile strike on a Khartoum weapons factory it alleged was supplying Palestinian groups.
Between the late 1980s and the mid 2010s, Sudan also enjoyed warm relations with Iran. From 2014, however, it moved away from Tehran’s orbit and towards that of Iran’s enemy in Saudi Arabia.
The fall of its long-time dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019 saw fears that Iran might exploit the vacuum to reintroduce partnership, but such proved not to be the case, and normalisation will see Sudan join Chad in seeking mutual anti-terror cooperation with Israel.
Both Chad and Sudan continue to face criticism for their human rights records.

Looking ahead: Israeli officials are briefing that the Chadian and Sudanese agreements might soon be followed by other normalisation deals with Mauritania and Indonesia.

Netanyahu is likely to pursue the extension of the Abraham Accords to include other Middle Eastern states, with Saudi Arabia representing the ultimate prize.

January 29, 2023

Attack in Neve Yaakov

Attack in Neve Yaakov: Seven people were killed and at least three others injured in a shooting attack near the Ateret Avraham synagogue in Jerusalem’s Neve Yaakov neighbourhood on Friday evening.

Five victims were declared dead at the scene and another two succumbed to injuries after reaching local hospitals.
The shooter was later named as Alqam Khayri, 21, an East Jerusalemite with no prior record of terror activity.
Khayri arrived at the busy synagogue, around the end of Shabbat evening prayers. He first shot an elderly woman in the street before beginning shooting at worshipers emerging from the Synagogue. He then fled the scene by car and headed for the nearby Arab neighbourhood of Beit Hanina. When faced with police officers, Khayri opened fire before being shot dead.
Security officials told the Walla news site that Khayri had displayed considerable skill with a weapon and that they were investigating the possibility that he had received training.

The aftermath: On Saturday, Israeli police arrested over 40 of Khayri’s friends, acquaintances, and family members.

Meanwhile, widespread celebrations were seen in the Gaza Strip and in several West Bank cities, including Ramallah, Nablus and Jenin.
A second shooting attack occurred on Saturday morning. An Israeli father and son, were said to be in a serious but stable condition after being shot near the Old City of Jerusalem. The Palestinian attacker, who was shot and wounded was identified as a 13-year-old Muhammad Aliyat.
There were two more attempted shooting attacks later on Saturday: One at Almog junction close to Jericho, where the assailants gun jammed, and a second attack thwarted at the entrance to the settlement of Kedumim.
US President Joe Biden called Netanyahu on Friday night. “The president made clear that this was an attack against the civilised world,” and “stressed the ironclad US commitment to Israel’s security,” the White House revealed.
Statements of support were also forthcoming from other Israeli allies including the UK and the UAE. A Jordanian statement condemned the attack but also included a thinly-veiled criticism of the Jenin operation.
Organisers of the anti-government protests on Saturday night decided that the demonstrations would begin with a minute’s silence for the victims of the terror attacks and would avoid the playing of music.

The Security Cabinet convened on Saturday night and announced a series of measures including:
- “National insurance rights and additional benefits for the families of terrorists that support terrorism will be revoked.”
- “Legislation on the revocation of Israeli identity cards of the families of terrorists that support terrorism will be discussed at tomorrow’s Government meeting.”
- “Firearm licensing will be expedited and expanded in order to enable thousands of additional citizens to carry weapons.”
- “In response to the abhorrent attacks and the celebrations in their wake, Prime Minister Netanyahu has decided on steps to strengthen settlement that will be submitted this week.”
Police also fear potential price tag revenge attacks against Arab Israelis. Prime Minister Netanyahu appealed for restraint in his immediate comments. “Our hearts are with the families,” he said. “I commend the police officers who took action so quickly. We must act with determination and composure. I call on people not to take the law into their own hands.”
On Sunday morning the mapping and sealing of Khayri’s home was expediated ahead of its demolition.
Five people remain hospitalised but in stable condition following the two attacks in Jerusalem.

The death toll of seven makes the Neve Yaakov attack the deadliest suffered by Israel since 2011, and the costliest Palestinian-perpetrated attack since 2008, when an East Jerusalemite terrorist killed eight Israelis at the city’s Mercaz Harav yeshiva.

No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, though Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad praised it as a response to Friday’s IDF raid in Jenin in which nine Palestinians, including seven combatants, were killed.
The first intifada (late 1980s) was characterised as a popular uprising and the second (from 2000) was notable for being led by organised terror organisations. This latest period which began in March 2022 has neither of those features and is led by localised cells and ‘lone wolf’ attackers.
Security experts are divided over the effectiveness of swift demolitions of terrorist homes; whether this disincentives future attacks or encourages them.
Since last March there have been several deadly terror attacks that have resulted in 30 Israelis killed. In the same period 150 Palestinians have also been killed, though over 90% were engaged in some form of combat.
The second attack’s perpetrator being a thirteen-year-old child is particularly shocking, both as testimony to his exposure to incitement and indoctrination as well as his ease of access to an illegal weapon.

The immediate period following lone wolf attacks is one of the most tense, as in the past deadly attacks have served as increased motivation for copycat attacks.

Kobi Shabtai, Israel’s police commissioner, ordered officers from the elite Yamam counterterrorism unit to deploy to Jerusalem after the two attacks.
IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, meanwhile, ordered extra troops to be stationed in the West Bank and along its security fence.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is due to arrive in Israel on Monday. Yesterday he said, “We mourn those killed in the attack, and our thoughts are with the injured, including children. The notion of people being targeted as they leave a house of worship is abhorrent.”

January 29, 2023

High alert following Friday’s deadly terror attack

Five victims were declared dead at the scene and another two succumbed to injuries after reaching local hospitals.
The shooter was later named as Alqam Khayri, 21, an East Jerusalemite with no prior record of terror activity.
Khayri arrived at the busy synagogue, around the end of Shabbat evening prayers. He first shot an elderly woman in the street before beginning shooting at worshipers emerging from the Synagogue. He then fled the scene by car and headed for the nearby Arab neighbourhood of Beit Hanina. When faced with police officers, Khayri opened fire before being shot dead.
Security officials told the Walla news site that Khayri had displayed considerable skill with a weapon and that they were investigating the possibility that he had received training.

The aftermath: On Saturday, Israeli police arrested over 40 of Khayri’s friends, acquaintances, and family members.

Meanwhile, widespread celebrations were seen in the Gaza Strip and in several West Bank cities, including Ramallah, Nablus and Jenin.
A second shooting attack occurred on Saturday morning. An Israeli father and son, were said to be in a serious but stable condition after being shot near the Old City of Jerusalem. The Palestinian attacker, who was shot and wounded was identified as a 13-year-old Muhammad Aliyat.
There were two more attempted shooting attacks later on Saturday: One at Almog junction close to Jericho, where the assailants gun jammed, and a second attack thwarted at the entrance to the settlement of Kedumim.
US President Joe Biden called Netanyahu on Friday night. “The president made clear that this was an attack against the civilised world,” and “stressed the ironclad US commitment to Israel’s security,” the White House revealed.
Statements of support were also forthcoming from other Israeli allies including the UK and the UAE. A Jordanian statement condemned the attack but also included a thinly-veiled criticism of the Jenin operation.
Organisers of the anti-government protests on Saturday night decided that the demonstrations would begin with a minute’s silence for the victims of the terror attacks and would avoid the playing of music.

The Security Cabinet convened on Saturday night and announced a series of measures including:
- “National insurance rights and additional benefits for the families of terrorists that support terrorism will be revoked.”
- “Legislation on the revocation of Israeli identity cards of the families of terrorists that support terrorism will be discussed at tomorrow’s Government meeting.”
- “Firearm licensing will be expedited and expanded in order to enable thousands of additional citizens to carry weapons.”
- “In response to the abhorrent attacks and the celebrations in their wake, Prime Minister Netanyahu has decided on steps to strengthen settlement that will be submitted this week.”
Police also fear potential price tag revenge attacks against Arab Israelis. Prime Minister Netanyahu appealed for restraint in his immediate comments. “Our hearts are with the families,” he said. “I commend the police officers who took action so quickly. We must act with determination and composure. I call on people not to take the law into their own hands.”
On Sunday morning the mapping and sealing of Khayri’s home was expediated ahead of its demolition.
Five people remain hospitalised but in stable condition following the two attacks in Jerusalem.

Context: The death toll of seven makes the Neve Yaakov attack the deadliest suffered by Israel since 2011, and the costliest Palestinian-perpetrated attack since 2008, when an East Jerusalemite terrorist killed eight Israelis at the city’s Mercaz Harav yeshiva.

No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, though Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad praised it as a response to Friday’s IDF raid in Jenin in which nine Palestinians, including seven combatants, were killed.
The first intifada (late 1980s) was characterised as a popular uprising and the second (from 2000) was notable for being led by organised terror organisations. This latest period which began in March 2022 has neither of those features and is led by localised cells and ‘lone wolf’ attackers.
Security experts are divided over the effectiveness of swift demolitions of terrorist homes; whether this disincentives future attacks or encourages them.
Since last March there have been several deadly terror attacks that have resulted in 30 Israelis killed. In the same period 150 Palestinians have also been killed, though over 90% were engaged in some form of combat.
The second attack’s perpetrator being a thirteen-year-old child is particularly shocking, both as testimony to his exposure to incitement and indoctrination as well as his ease of access to an illegal weapon.

Looking ahead: The immediate period following lone wolf attacks is one of the most tense, as in the past deadly attacks have served as increased motivation for copycat attacks.

Kobi Shabtai, Israel’s police commissioner, ordered officers from the elite Yamam counterterrorism unit to deploy to Jerusalem after the two attacks.
IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, meanwhile, ordered extra troops to be stationed in the West Bank and along its security fence.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is due to arrive in Israel on Monday. Yesterday he said, “We mourn those killed in the attack, and our thoughts are with the injured, including children. The notion of people being targeted as they leave a house of worship is abhorrent.”

January 27, 2023

Overnight rocket fire following Jenin operation

What happened: Nine Palestinians died in clashes between Israeli troops and Palestinian militants during a three-hour IDF operation in the heart of the Jenin Refugee camp on Thursday morning.

In response, the Palestinian Authority (PA) has suspended security cooperation with Israel. A Palestinian general strike was also announced in the West Bank.
During the night, six rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip towards Israel- the Iron Dome intercepted four, one exploded in an open area and one fell inside the strip. The Israeli Air Force hit rocket-holding sites in the Maghazi refugee camp in central Gaza and “one of the most significant” Hamas sites in Northern Gaza.
According to the IDF, the Jenin raid was launched after intelligence shared by the Shin Bet revealed that an imminent attack on central Israel, involving shooting and explosives, was being planned by the local wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).
Five of the dead have been confirmed as members of the PIJ cell. “This squad was a ticking time bomb. If we didn’t act, they would have,” said an IDF source.
In an attempt to flush out the wanted men from their hideout, troops used “pressure cooker” tactics- deploying shoulder-launched missiles and other explosives. Troops then came under fire and responded in kind.
While the IDF is reporting that eight of the nine fatalities were combatants, a 60-year-old civilian woman, Magda Obaid, was also killed, though unclear if by the IDF or Palestinian gunmen.
Another of the Palestinians killed was named as Izzidin Yassin Salahat, identified by Palestinian media as a member, not of PIJ, but of the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, an organisation with ties to Fatah, the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) ruling party. Salahat was also said to be a member of the PA’s security forces which cooperate with Israel in the maintenance of West Bank security.
No Israeli casualties were sustained in Jenin. IDF vehicles were damaged by PIJ explosives and required towing from the scene, while media clips also appear to show the downing of an IDF surveillance drone.
Away from Jenin, 11 suspects were arrested across the West Bank in previous raids early Wednesday morning, the IDF revealed, while two other Palestinians died following clashes with Israeli troops in East Jerusalem and the town of a-Ram.

Context: As part of the ongoing “Operation Breakwater”, which last year secured over 3,000 arrests and thwarted over 500 attacks, Israel has this year continued to launch raids into the West Bank.

January 2^nd saw violent clashes between troops and militants in the village of Kafr-Dan, near Jenin, while January 11^th witnessed another raid in the Balata refugee camp. January 16^th then saw 14-year-old Palestinian Khaled Lutfi Khmour killed during a raid on the Dheisheh refugee camp, south of Bethlehem.
The latest events bring the total Palestinians killed in 2023 so far to 29, the vast majority classified as combatants.
2022 saw the highest number of West Bank fatalities since the height of the Second Intifada in 2004. Over 150 Palestinians were killed- also mostly combatants, according to the IDF.
December polling by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research in the West Bank showed support for Abbas’s leadership at 23%, with 72% showing broad support for more independent terrorist organisations.
The influence of PIJ, in particular, has grown, with crucial support from Iran. Having long armed and financed both Hamas and PIJ in Gaza, Iran has turned greater attention to growing the capacity and influence of proxies in the West Bank in the last 12 months.
Jenin continues to be a locus of conflict and an intense concentration of Palestinian terror. The “Jenin Brigade” has seen members of multiple rival organisations forego sectarian division and collect in a loose affiliation, locally semi-autonomous from their respective organisation’s command structure.
Regarding Ramallah’s decision to cease cooperation with Israel, “Security coordination with the occupation government no longer exists as of now,” said Deputy PA Prime Minister Nabil Abu Rudeineh, in a statement avoiding explicit mention of the possibility of its future return.
Operation Breakwater has been partially motivated by lax or ineffectual PA security efforts in any case. In Jenin, for example, security forces have long refrained from conducting security patrols even on the refugee camp’s periphery.
In Gaza, no group claimed responsibility for the rocket fire, though the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas’s military wing, admitted firing anti-aircraft weapons and ground-to-air missiles at Israeli aircraft. Both Israel and Hamas continue to favour the maintenance of relative de-escalation, with messages to that effect already passed to the mediating Egyptians.

Looking ahead: Egyptian mediation notwithstanding, the scale of the Jenin raid makes further revenge attacks likely. More rocket launches are possible, while the Temple Mount is another potential flashpoint today.

Israel is almost certain to respond to any such attack. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office released a statement which read: “Netanyahu made it clear that Israel is not looking to escalate, but instructed the security forces to prepare for any scenario in the various arenas to ensure the safety of Israeli citizens.”
The IDF has raised the military’s state of readiness and a reinforcement of Israel’s Iron Dome missile defence is being discussed.
It remains unclear how the PA’s announcement will be implemented on the ground. It has announced the end of security coordination on several occasions over the last few years without following through on the ground, before formally resuming cooperation following US and Israeli pressure.
The US criticised the move and will be keen to support de-escalation ahead of Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s arrival in Israel on Monday. Blinken will hold talks with Netanyahu and other Israeli officials and is then due to proceed to Ramallah on Tuesday.

January 23, 2023

Negev Forum’s first meeting

Israeli Foreign Ministry Director Alon Ushpiz and 20 other Israeli officials joined counterparts from Morocco, Bahrain, the UAE, Egypt, and the US in Abu Dhabi for the first official meeting of the Negev Forum’s working groups.

A total of 150 participants met in what organisers say was the largest gathering of Israeli and Arab officials since the 1991 Madrid Summit.
Israeli ministries represented included defence, intelligence, economy, agriculture, energy, health, tourism, and education. Officials from the National Security Council and the Water Authority were also present.
Amidst a week of domestic political tension and recrimination, the forum presented a rare opportunity for bipartisan celebration. Opposition leader Yair Lapid described images from the summit as “extremely moving” and tweeted that “our vision of a ‘statesmanship of connections’ is taking form and is bringing the Middle East to new achievements of regional stability and cooperation.”
Away from the Forum, new Foreign Minister Eli Cohen spoke with UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly on Tuesday. Cohen then joined Economy Minister Nik Barkat in meeting with UK minister for the Middle East region Lord Ahmed in Jerusalem on Wednesday, with discussions focussing on regional security and the long hoped-for free trade deal between the UK and Israel.

The Negev Forum was a 2022 initiative of the US and then-Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, designed to create a “permanent forum” to deepen the Abraham Accords, strengthen Arab-Israeli ties, and address issues of mutual concern.

Its inaugural meeting, attended by the Foreign Ministers of all members, was held in March last year in Sde Boker, followed by subsequent meetings in June and October.
The Working Groups are divided into six issue areas-
- Regional security
- Clean energy
- Food and water security
- Health
- Tourism
- Education and coexistence.
It can already point to its achievements in increased tourism and direct flights between Israel and the Arab members, as well as the expansion of trade and academic and cultural exchange.
Israel currently chairs the education and coexistence group, and co-chairs the food and water security team with Morocco.
Officials stressed the importance of the latter group in the context of the continued disruption of the global supply of grain and other vital ingredients caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Israeli Foreign Ministry officials stressed that the decision of all other Forum states to publicly criticise Minister Ben Gvir’s recent visit to the Temple Mount would have no bearing on discussions, and further signs of the increased cooperation between Israel and the UAE were evident during and beyond the Forum.
This week, Israel and UAE held their first official financial dialogue meeting (virtually). Shira Greenberg, chief economist and director of state revenue, research, and international affairs at the Israeli Ministry of Finance joined Younis Haji Al Khoori, under-secretary of the UAE’s Ministry of Finance, to discuss opportunities for financial cooperation.
The UAE also announced this week that it will introduce Holocaust education at both the primary and secondary level.
Jordan continues to decline invitations to attend the Forum, citing the non-inclusion of the Palestinians. A US State Department official this week described the ongoing absence of Jordanian officials as constituting an “empty chair at the table”.
US officials have been keen to persuade Amman to participate, with Secretary of State Anthony Blinken raising the issue once more on a phone call with Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi last Friday.
Alongside Egyptian overtures to Ramallah, the question of Palestinian involvement was also discussed last July during President Biden’s meeting with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, with the latter said to have confirmed to Biden that his government was not interested in participating under current conditions.
The US continues to update Palestinian officials on the forum’s discussions, and an idea floated last year was that Jordan and the Palestinians would join the working groups in an observer capacity.
The US stressed that the forum’s work still sought to benefit the Palestinians: “You’ll likely see projects that are not targeted specifically at the Palestinians per se,” said an official, “but broader regional projects that [they] will be able to benefit from just like the other countries involved…”
Although Israeli-Palestinian peace is not a formal priority of the forum, its Regional Cooperation Framework (agreed by the Bennett-Lapid government in November 2022 but only released this week) did express the ambition that its work could be “harnessed to create momentum in Israeli-Palestinian relations, towards a negotiated resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and as part of efforts to achieve a just, lasting and comprehensive peace.”
Ushpiz, however, said: “Our line is very clear and my instructions going in were very clear - the Negev forum is about strengthening regional integration and improving people’s lives and we don’t want it to engage in political discussions about the Palestinian issue.”
Analyst Barak Ravid cites Israeli officials disclosing that several of the participating Arab states had wanted the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to be mentioned in the meeting’s closing statement but that these proposals were rejected by Israeli officials.
Hamas spokesman Hazem Qasem, meanwhile, condemned the Arab states’ participation as an “insistence on the sin of their normalisation with the Occupation State”.

The forum’s next meeting – at the “Annual Ministerial” level – will take place in Morocco in the Spring.

By that time, Prime Minister Netanyahu will hope to have made his first official visit to the UAE.
According to reports, officials in Washington plan to invite the Foreign Minister of an unnamed and as yet uninvolved Muslim African state.

January 18, 2023

Hamas releases hostage video

Hamas released a video recording of Avera Mengistu who has been imprisoned by Hamas for the last eight years after he crossed the border fence into the Gaza Strip in 2014.

In the short clip he is seen on camera saying: “I am the prisoner Avera Mengistu. How much longer will I be here, I and my friends, in captivity after long and painful years? Where are the Israeli state and people to care about our fate?”
The video also quotes outgoing IDF Chief of Staff Kochavi, saying that he regretted having failed to bring the MIAs and civilian captives home before the end of his tenure.
The Hamas video then shows footage from the IDF handover ceremony, with the message: “Your predecessor left you lies.”
The clip was being studied by Israeli experts to ascertain its authenticity. It appears to be the first indication of proof that the Israeli civilian is still alive eight years into his incarceration.
Yesterday Prime Minister Netanyahu related to the clip saying: “Israel has not ceased its efforts to bring back Avera Mengistu and our other captives and MIAs. Yesterday we received additional confirmation of what we have known all along – that Avera is alive. He is a young man, not in the best of health, and Hamas is entirely responsible for his fate.”
The Mengistu family issued a statement: “It’s more urgent for us to get him back than to see him in a video. This is further proof that he is alive. The state needs to act quickly to bring him home. He appears to be healthy and taken care of. There’s no reason for him to remain in prison for even one day longer. Beyond that, it was very moving to see him. This is the first time that we’ve seen him.”

The release of the recording appears to have been deliberately timed to coincide with the first day of the new IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi.

The assessment in Israel is that the release was designed to divert attention from the occasion and embarrass the IDF.
However, by releasing the video for “free” others have concluded that the recording attests to the pressure Hamas is feeling. In the past such videos confirming “proof of life” have come at a price. For example, Israel released several female Palestinian prisoners before Hamas agreed to release a video recording of Gilad Shalit.
According to Mengistu’s family he suffered from mental health issues and crossed over into the Gaza Strip on his own volition, before being captured and held by Hamas. He went missing on September 7, 2014, leaving his home in Ashkelon with only a rucksack, walking ten km to the border and crossing the fence and entering the Gaza Strip.
Last summer Hamas released a similar video of Hisham al-Sayed, the second Israeli citizen held captive by Hamas, who also crossed the border into the Gaza Strip in 2015.
In addition Hamas still hold the remains of Hadar Goldin and Oron Shaul, IDF soldiers killed in 2014.
Beyond assessing that the footage is authentic, questions remain as when it was filmed.
Foreign Minister Eli Cohen is sending letters to the Pope, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the Red Cross president, and the head of the World Health Organisation asking them to intercede to secure the release of Mengistu and the other captives.

The video suggests Hamas is keen to reach an agreement with Israel for a prisoner exchange deal.

As with most aspects of Israel’s approach to the Gaza Strip, negotiations over a potential deal are facilitated by the Egyptians, who reiterated this morning that they are ready to renew their role.
Israel will need to appoint a new chief negotiator after Yaron Blum resigned at the end of October.
Hamas continues to demand that Israel release several dozen murderers and prisoners who were released in the Gilad Shalit deal and re-arrested on terror charges.
Hamas’s aim is to restart a public debate in Israel and pressure the government to move forward with a prisoner exchange deal.

January 18, 2023

Hamas release video of Israel civilian held captive

What happened: Hamas released a video recording of Avera Mengistu who has been imprisoned by Hamas for the last eight years after he crossed the border fence into the Gaza Strip in 2014.

In the short clip he is seen on camera saying: “I am the prisoner Avera Mengistu. How much longer will I be here, I and my friends, in captivity after long and painful years? Where are the Israeli state and people to care about our fate?”
The video also quotes outgoing IDF Chief of Staff Kochavi, saying that he regretted having failed to bring the MIAs and civilian captives home before the end of his tenure.
The Hamas video then shows footage from the IDF handover ceremony, with the message: “Your predecessor left you lies.”
The clip was being studied by Israeli experts to ascertain its authenticity. It appears to be the first indication of proof that the Israeli civilian is still alive eight years into his incarceration.
Yesterday Prime Minister Netanyahu related to the clip saying: “Israel has not ceased its efforts to bring back Avera Mengistu and our other captives and MIAs. Yesterday we received additional confirmation of what we have known all along – that Avera is alive. He is a young man, not in the best of health, and Hamas is entirely responsible for his fate.”
The Mengistu family issued a statement: “It’s more urgent for us to get him back than to see him in a video. This is further proof that he is alive. The state needs to act quickly to bring him home. He appears to be healthy and taken care of. There’s no reason for him to remain in prison for even one day longer. Beyond that, it was very moving to see him. This is the first time that we’ve seen him.”

Context: The release of the recording appears to have been deliberately timed to coincide with the first day of the new IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi.

The assessment in Israel is that the release was designed to divert attention from the occasion and embarrass the IDF.
However, by releasing the video for “free” others have concluded that the recording attests to the pressure Hamas is feeling. In the past such videos confirming “proof of life” have come at a price. For example, Israel released several female Palestinian prisoners before Hamas agreed to release a video recording of Gilad Shalit.
According to Mengistu’s family he suffered from mental health issues and crossed over into the Gaza Strip on his own volition, before being captured and held by Hamas. He went missing on September 7, 2014, leaving his home in Ashkelon with only a rucksack, walking ten km to the border and crossing the fence and entering the Gaza Strip.
Last summer Hamas released a similar video of Hisham al-Sayed, the second Israeli citizen held captive by Hamas, who also crossed the border into the Gaza Strip in 2015.
In addition Hamas still hold the remains of Hadar Goldin and Oron Shaul, IDF soldiers killed in 2014.
Beyond assessing that the footage is authentic, questions remain as when it was filmed.
Foreign Minister Eli Cohen is sending letters to the Pope, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the Red Cross president, and the head of the World Health Organisation asking them to intercede to secure the release of Mengistu and the other captives.

Looking ahead: The video suggests Hamas is keen to reach an agreement with Israel for a prisoner exchange deal.

As with most aspects of Israel’s approach to the Gaza Strip, negotiations over a potential deal are facilitated by the Egyptians, who reiterated this morning that they are ready to renew their role.
Israel will need to appoint a new chief negotiator after Yaron Blum resigned at the end of October.
Hamas continues to demand that Israel release several dozen murderers and prisoners who were released in the Gilad Shalit deal and re-arrested on terror charges.
Hamas’s aim is to restart a public debate in Israel and pressure the government to move forward with a prisoner exchange deal.

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Key background

CIA Director meets Abbas

CIA Director says situation resembles Second Intifada

Netanyahu meets Chad President

Chad opens embassy in Israel and Sudan deal moves closer

Attack in Neve Yaakov

High alert following Friday’s deadly terror attack

Overnight rocket fire following Jenin operation

Negev Forum’s first meeting

Hamas releases hostage video

Hamas release video of Israel civilian held captive

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