Attack in Neve Yaakov: Seven people were killed and at least three others injured in a shooting attack near the Ateret Avraham synagogue in Jerusalem’s Neve Yaakov neighbourhood on Friday evening.

• Five victims were declared dead at the scene and another two succumbed to injuries after reaching local hospitals.
• The shooter was later named as Alqam Khayri, 21, an East Jerusalemite with no prior record of terror activity.
• Khayri arrived at the busy synagogue, around the end of Shabbat evening prayers. He first shot an elderly woman in the street before beginning shooting at worshipers emerging from the Synagogue. He then fled the scene by car and headed for the nearby Arab neighbourhood of Beit Hanina. When faced with police officers, Khayri opened fire before being shot dead.
• Security officials told the Walla news site that Khayri had displayed considerable skill with a weapon and that they were investigating the possibility that he had received training.

The aftermath: On Saturday, Israeli police arrested over 40 of Khayri’s friends, acquaintances, and family members.

• Meanwhile, widespread celebrations were seen in the Gaza Strip and in several West Bank cities, including Ramallah, Nablus and Jenin.
• A second shooting attack occurred on Saturday morning. An Israeli father and son, were said to be in a serious but stable condition after being shot near the Old City of Jerusalem.  The Palestinian attacker, who was shot and wounded was identified as a 13-year-old Muhammad Aliyat.
• There were two more attempted shooting attacks later on Saturday: One at Almog junction close to Jericho, where the assailants gun jammed, and a second attack thwarted at the entrance to the settlement of Kedumim.
• US President Joe Biden called Netanyahu on Friday night. “The president made clear that this was an attack against the civilised world,” and “stressed the ironclad US commitment to Israel’s security,” the White House revealed.
• Statements of support were also forthcoming from other Israeli allies including the UK and the UAE. A Jordanian statement condemned the attack but also included a thinly-veiled criticism of the Jenin operation.
• Organisers of the anti-government protests on Saturday night decided that the demonstrations would begin with a minute’s silence for the victims of the terror attacks and would avoid the playing of music.

• The Security Cabinet convened on Saturday night and announced a series of measures including:
  • “National insurance rights and additional benefits for the families of terrorists that support terrorism will be revoked.”
  • “Legislation on the revocation of Israeli identity cards of the families of terrorists that support terrorism will be discussed at tomorrow’s Government meeting.”
  • “Firearm licensing will be expedited and expanded in order to enable thousands of additional citizens to carry weapons.”
  • “In response to the abhorrent attacks and the celebrations in their wake, Prime Minister Netanyahu has decided on steps to strengthen settlement that will be submitted this week.”
• Police also fear potential price tag revenge attacks against Arab Israelis. Prime Minister Netanyahu appealed for restraint in his immediate comments. “Our hearts are with the families,” he said. “I commend the police officers who took action so quickly. We must act with determination and composure. I call on people not to take the law into their own hands.”
• On Sunday morning the mapping and sealing of Khayri’s home was expediated ahead of its demolition.
• Five people remain hospitalised but in stable condition following the two attacks in Jerusalem.

Context: The death toll of seven makes the Neve Yaakov attack the deadliest suffered by Israel since 2011, and the costliest Palestinian-perpetrated attack since 2008, when an East Jerusalemite terrorist killed eight Israelis at the city’s Mercaz Harav yeshiva.

• No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, though Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad praised it as a response to Friday’s IDF raid in Jenin in which nine Palestinians, including seven combatants, were killed.
• The first intifada (late 1980s) was characterised as a popular uprising and the second (from 2000) was notable for being led by organised terror organisations. This latest period which began in March 2022 has neither of those features and is led by localised cells and ‘lone wolf’ attackers.
• Security experts are divided over the effectiveness of swift demolitions of terrorist homes; whether this disincentives future attacks or encourages them.
• Since last March there have been several deadly terror attacks that have resulted in 30 Israelis killed. In the same period 150 Palestinians have also been killed, though over 90% were engaged in some form of combat.
• The second attack’s perpetrator being a thirteen-year-old child is particularly shocking, both as testimony to his exposure to incitement and indoctrination as well as his ease of access to an illegal weapon.

Looking ahead: The immediate period following lone wolf attacks is one of the most tense, as in the past deadly attacks have served as increased motivation for copycat attacks.

• Kobi Shabtai, Israel’s police commissioner, ordered officers from the elite Yamam counterterrorism unit to deploy to Jerusalem after the two attacks.
• IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, meanwhile, ordered extra troops to be stationed in the West Bank and along its security fence.
• US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is due to arrive in Israel on Monday. Yesterday he said, “We mourn those killed in the attack, and our thoughts are with the injured, including children. The notion of people being targeted as they leave a house of worship is abhorrent.”

What happened: Nine Palestinians died in clashes between Israeli troops and Palestinian militants during a three-hour IDF operation in the heart of the Jenin Refugee camp on Thursday morning.

• In response, the Palestinian Authority (PA) has suspended security cooperation with Israel. A Palestinian general strike was also announced in the West Bank.
• During the night, six rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip towards Israel- the Iron Dome intercepted four, one exploded in an open area and one fell inside the strip. The Israeli Air Force hit rocket-holding sites in the Maghazi refugee camp in central Gaza and “one of the most significant” Hamas sites in Northern Gaza.
• According to the IDF, the Jenin raid was launched after intelligence shared by the Shin Bet revealed that an imminent attack on central Israel, involving shooting and explosives, was being planned by the local wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).
• Five of the dead have been confirmed as members of the PIJ cell. “This squad was a ticking time bomb. If we didn’t act, they would have,” said an IDF source.
• In an attempt to flush out the wanted men from their hideout, troops used “pressure cooker” tactics- deploying shoulder-launched missiles and other explosives. Troops then came under fire and responded in kind.
• While the IDF is reporting that eight of the nine fatalities were combatants, a 60-year-old civilian woman, Magda Obaid, was also killed, though unclear if by the IDF or Palestinian gunmen.
• Another of the Palestinians killed was named as Izzidin Yassin Salahat, identified by Palestinian media as a member, not of PIJ, but of the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, an organisation with ties to Fatah, the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) ruling party. Salahat was also said to be a member of the PA’s security forces which cooperate with Israel in the maintenance of West Bank security.
• No Israeli casualties were sustained in Jenin. IDF vehicles were damaged by PIJ explosives and required towing from the scene, while media clips also appear to show the downing of an IDF surveillance drone.
• Away from Jenin, 11 suspects were arrested across the West Bank in previous raids early Wednesday morning, the IDF revealed, while two other Palestinians died following clashes with Israeli troops in East Jerusalem and the town of a-Ram.

Context: As part of the ongoing “Operation Breakwater”, which last year secured over 3,000 arrests and thwarted over 500 attacks, Israel has this year continued to launch raids into the West Bank.

• January 2^nd saw violent clashes between troops and militants in the village of Kafr-Dan, near Jenin, while January 11^th witnessed another raid in the Balata refugee camp. January 16^th then saw 14-year-old Palestinian Khaled Lutfi Khmour killed during a raid on the Dheisheh refugee camp, south of Bethlehem.
• The latest events bring the total Palestinians killed in 2023 so far to 29, the vast majority classified as combatants.
• 2022 saw the highest number of West Bank fatalities since the height of the Second Intifada in 2004. Over 150 Palestinians were killed- also mostly combatants, according to the IDF.
• December polling by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research in the West Bank showed support for Abbas’s leadership at 23%, with 72% showing broad support for more independent terrorist organisations.
• The influence of PIJ, in particular, has grown, with crucial support from Iran. Having long armed and financed both Hamas and PIJ in Gaza, Iran has turned greater attention to growing the capacity and influence of proxies in the West Bank in the last 12 months.
• Jenin continues to be a locus of conflict and an intense concentration of Palestinian terror. The “Jenin Brigade” has seen members of multiple rival organisations forego sectarian division and collect in a loose affiliation, locally semi-autonomous from their respective organisation’s command structure.
• Regarding Ramallah’s decision to cease cooperation with Israel, “Security coordination with the occupation government no longer exists as of now,” said Deputy PA Prime Minister Nabil Abu Rudeineh, in a statement avoiding explicit mention of the possibility of its future return.
• Operation Breakwater has been partially motivated by lax or ineffectual PA security efforts in any case. In Jenin, for example, security forces have long refrained from conducting security patrols even on the refugee camp’s periphery.
• In Gaza, no group claimed responsibility for the rocket fire, though the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas’s military wing, admitted firing anti-aircraft weapons and ground-to-air missiles at Israeli aircraft. Both Israel and Hamas continue to favour the maintenance of relative de-escalation, with messages to that effect already passed to the mediating Egyptians.

Looking ahead: Egyptian mediation notwithstanding, the scale of the Jenin raid makes further revenge attacks likely. More rocket launches are possible, while the Temple Mount is another potential flashpoint today.

• Israel is almost certain to respond to any such attack. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office released a statement which read: “Netanyahu made it clear that Israel is not looking to escalate, but instructed the security forces to prepare for any scenario in the various arenas to ensure the safety of Israeli citizens.”
• The IDF has raised the military’s state of readiness and a reinforcement of Israel’s Iron Dome missile defence is being discussed.
• It remains unclear how the PA’s announcement will be implemented on the ground. It has announced the end of security coordination on several occasions over the last few years without following through on the ground, before formally resuming cooperation following US and Israeli pressure.
• The US criticised the move and will be keen to support de-escalation ahead of Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s arrival in Israel on Monday. Blinken will hold talks with Netanyahu and other Israeli officials and is then due to proceed to Ramallah on Tuesday.

What happened: Hamas released a video recording of Avera Mengistu who has been imprisoned by Hamas for the last eight years after he crossed the border fence into the Gaza Strip in 2014.

• In the short clip he is seen on camera saying: “I am the prisoner Avera Mengistu. How much longer will I be here, I and my friends, in captivity after long and painful years? Where are the Israeli state and people to care about our fate?”
• The video also quotes outgoing IDF Chief of Staff Kochavi, saying that he regretted having failed to bring the MIAs and civilian captives home before the end of his tenure.
• The Hamas video then shows footage from the IDF handover ceremony, with the message: “Your predecessor left you lies.”
• The clip was being studied by Israeli experts to ascertain its authenticity. It appears to be the first indication of proof that the Israeli civilian is still alive eight years into his incarceration.
• Yesterday Prime Minister Netanyahu related to the clip saying: “Israel has not ceased its efforts to bring back Avera Mengistu and our other captives and MIAs. Yesterday we received additional confirmation of what we have known all along – that Avera is alive. He is a young man, not in the best of health, and Hamas is entirely responsible for his fate.”
• The Mengistu family issued a statement: “It’s more urgent for us to get him back than to see him in a video. This is further proof that he is alive. The state needs to act quickly to bring him home. He appears to be healthy and taken care of. There’s no reason for him to remain in prison for even one day longer. Beyond that, it was very moving to see him. This is the first time that we’ve seen him.”

Context: The release of the recording appears to have been deliberately timed to coincide with the first day of the new IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi.

• The assessment in Israel is that the release was designed to divert attention from the occasion and embarrass the IDF.
• However, by releasing the video for “free” others have concluded that the recording attests to the pressure Hamas is feeling. In the past such videos confirming “proof of life” have come at a price. For example, Israel released several female Palestinian prisoners before Hamas agreed to release a video recording of Gilad Shalit.
• According to Mengistu’s family he suffered from mental health issues and crossed over into the Gaza Strip on his own volition, before being captured and held by Hamas. He went missing on September 7, 2014, leaving his home in Ashkelon with only a rucksack, walking ten km to the border and crossing the fence and entering the Gaza Strip.
• Last summer Hamas released a similar video of Hisham al-Sayed, the second Israeli citizen held captive by Hamas, who also crossed the border into the Gaza Strip in 2015.
• In addition Hamas still hold the remains of Hadar Goldin and Oron Shaul, IDF soldiers killed in 2014.
• Beyond assessing that the footage is authentic, questions remain as when it was filmed.
• Foreign Minister Eli Cohen is sending letters to the Pope, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the Red Cross president, and the head of the World Health Organisation asking them to intercede to secure the release of Mengistu and the other captives.

Looking ahead: The video suggests Hamas is keen to reach an agreement with Israel for a prisoner exchange deal.

• As with most aspects of Israel’s approach to the Gaza Strip, negotiations over a potential deal are facilitated by the Egyptians, who reiterated this morning that they are ready to renew their role.
• Israel will need to appoint a new chief negotiator after Yaron Blum resigned at the end of October.
• Hamas continues to demand that Israel release several dozen murderers and prisoners who were released in the Gilad Shalit deal and re-arrested on terror charges.
• Hamas’s aim is to restart a public debate in Israel and pressure the government to move forward with a prisoner exchange deal.

What happened: Israel’s new Security Cabinet convened for its first meeting and issued a range of responses to the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) decision to target Israel in international forums.

• Following a Palestinian initiative, the UN General Assembly passed a resolution for the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to open an investigation into Israel’s “prolonged occupation, settlement and annexation of Palestinian territory.”
• In response, the Security Cabinet decided:
  • To use around NIS 139 million (£23.6m) of PA tax funds to compensates the families of victims murdered in Palestinian terrorist attacks, offsetting the payments made by the PA to terrorists and their families last year.
  • To prevent illegal Palestinian construction plans in Area C (where, according to the Oslo agreements, Israel retains full civil and security control).
  • To revoke Palestinian officials’ VIP access if they are leading the political and legal campaigns against Israel.

• Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich commented yesterday saying, “Nothing could be more just than deducting funds from the PA, which acted in support of terrorism, and to turn them over to victims of terrorism. The government of Israel is changing its policies, and on this day we are beginning to make a correction. There isn’t any consolation here for the families of the murdered, but there is justice.”
• Yesterday Israel suspended Palestinian foreign minister’s Riyad al-Maliki’s VIP pass. He was briefly detained when entering via Jordan and his VIP travel card confiscated.
• Last week Karim Younis, the longest-serving security prisoner in Israel, was released from prison. An Israeli-Arab affiliated with Fatah, he was convicted in 1983 for the murder of IDF soldier Avraham Bromberg.
• Since his release there have been days of celebration in his village of Arara in northern Israel, where he has been visited by prominent religious and Arab political figures. Three PA officials who visited him also had their VIP travel documents revoked.
• In addition, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has also instructed police to remove Palestinian flags from public spaces, seen prominently amid the celebrations in Arara.

Context: The new government is emphasising zero tolerance for support for terrorism and lawfare initiatives that seek to delegitimise Israel in international forums.

• Israeli law does not outlaw Palestinian flags, but police and soldiers have the right to remove them in cases where they deem there is a threat to public order. Under Ben-Gvir’s leadership, the definition of “a threat to public order” could be more broadly interpreted.
• In addition, the family of the murdered Bromberg are appealing to Interior Minister Aryeh Deri to rescind Karim’s Israeli citizenship.
• Palestinian officials are concerned that the withholding of the tax income will have an adverse effect on the Palestinian economy, which is already struggling to meet its commitments in paying public service employees.
• As of now the Palestinian security forces are maintaining security coordination with the IDF, as both sides share concern over Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Iranian efforts to activate terror cells in the West Bank. However, some Israeli officials are concerned that the PA will be less motivated to make arrests and take action against terrorists. 

Looking ahead: Israel has not yet decided what its approach will be to the ICJ, or if further steps will be taken against the PA.

• Similarly, the PA is also assessing its next move and whether to ramp up further pressure on Israel by looking to join other international forums.

• Israel will face similar challenges Younis’s cousin, Maher Younis, and his co-conspirator released from prison next week as scheduled.