Hezbollah and Lebanon 5

Updated March 10, 2026

Trump signals the endgame as Israel confronts a strategic dilemma in Lebanon

What’s happened: President Trump indicated he was ready to end the war on Iran sooner rather than later. “It’s going to be ended soon,” he told reporters in Florida, “and if it starts up again they’ll be hit even harder.”

Trump’s comments had an immediate effect on commodity prices, notably causing a rapid fall in oil prices, which had risen dramatically the day before. But the pace of attacks on Iran, and Iranian missile fire on Israel, did not materially change.
Prime Minister Netanyahu, for his part, also made comments that indicated that Israel does not intend to continue fighting this war until the Iranian regime completely collapses. “Our aspiration is to bring the Iranian people to throw off the yoke of tyranny,” he said during a visit late last night to the National Health Emergency Operations Center. “Ultimately it depends on them. But there is no doubt that through the actions taken so far we are breaking their bones — and our arm is still outstretched.”
Two more civilians were killed in Israel yesterday from Iranian missiles. Both were constructions workers on site in the central city of Yehud, not far from Ben Gurion Airport.
The name of the second of two soldiers killed in combat in Lebanon was released yesterday. Or Demry, 20, from Liman, near the northern border, was killed along with Maher Khatar 38. Khatar is the first IDF fatality from the Golan Druze community. Unlike Druze from inside Israel’s pre-1967 borders, Golan Druze almost never served in the IDF until very recently.
Hezbollah too launched a barrage of rockets on central Israel yesterday. One missile hit the city centre of Ramleh, injuring 16.
Following on Israel’s threat last week that Iranian regime officials in Lebanon who did not immediately leave the country would become targets, the IDF launched a targeted strikes on one hotel room in the Ramada Hotel in Beirut’s upscale Raouché district. The strike eliminated five senior members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, all of whom were involved in financing and directing terrorist operations among Iran’s Lebanese and Palestinian clients. Ten other people were injured in the strike. At least 150 Iranian nationals are known to have left Lebanon since Israel issued the unusual threat last week.
Meanwhile, the Israel Air Force continued its offensive operations over Iran. IAF airplanes struck the IRGC’s Quds Force Command Centre in Tehran, as well as a missile production and storage site in Isfahan. Airstrikes also disabled at least six Iranian airfields and destroyed the IRGC’s headquarters for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
Trump administration envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff were due to arrive in Israel today, but their visit has been cancelled. It had been intended to discuss strategic coordination between Washington and Jerusalem over the Iran war and, in particular, to focus on reactions among US allies in the Gulf.

Context: As the IDF continues its offensive operations in Lebanon in response to Hezbollah rocket and drone fire, potentially dramatic diplomatic developments are afoot.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun lashed out at Hezbollah in comments yesterday to European officials, saying “Whoever launched those missiles wanted to bring about the collapse of the Lebanese state, plunging it into aggression and chaos… all for the sake of the Iranian regime’s calculation.” He proposed a four-point plan to end the war that would include “establishing a full truce” with Israel and direct negotiations.
Reports in US media indicated that Aoun was even open to the possibility of negotiating a full peace agreement with Israel, though both US and Israeli officials were reported to be sceptical about the seriousness of the proposal.
Israeli commentators focused on the strategic dilemma Israel finds itself in at this point in the conflict on its northern border. On the one hand, military achievements from both the 2024 war with Hezbollah and the current fighting have pushed Lebanon into making diplomatic overtures that have been an Israeli wish for decades. If there is a genuine option for concluding the state of war that has been in place for nearly eight decades with Lebanon, there is every reason to pursue it.
On the other hand, diplomatic and military conditions are ripe for an offensive which could land a deadly and unrecoverable blow on Hezbollah, weakened by the 2024, cut off from its Syrian land bridge, and nearly abandoned by its Iranian patron now deep in survival mode in the face of a massive US-Israeli barrage. To step back from this once-in-a-generation opportunity for the IDF to destroy its most tenacious regional enemy might not be a risk worth taking.
Avi Issacharoff writes in Yediot Ahronot, “What Israel must understand above all about Hezbollah is precisely what Israel has failed to understand about Hamas all these years, including after October 7: This is an extremist religious organisation that will not hesitate to use any means at its disposal to hurt the other side. They are not afraid of suffering a large number of casualties or damage to real estate, as Hezbollah sustained in Israeli air strikes on the Dahiya Quarter. This is an organisation that has sent hundreds of people to their deaths fighting in Syria in order to save an Alawite tyrant [then president Bashar al-Assad] because that is what Iran ordered it to do. This organisation will do everything it can to cause Lebanon to go up in flames, if only in order to rekindle the broad support [it once enjoyed] in that country. Hezbollah was the side party that invented suicide terrorism in the Middle East, and it does not appear that disarming the group and handing it to one Lebanese government or another will be a simple matter of Israeli bombings from the air.”
Since Hezbollah joined the war on March 2, most of its rocket fire in this war has been aimed at northern Israel. For Israeli residents, the difference between attacks from Lebanon and Iran is in the lead time to seek shelter: Alerts are sounded when Iranian missile fire is detected, usually five minutes before the sirens that indicate 90 seconds to impact. This gives most people enough time to seek a hardened shelter. With rocket fire from Lebanon, there is no alert, just the siren that gives 90 seconds. For anyone not near a hardened shelter, this is just enough to find a stairwell or some windowless room to seek shelter.
The weapon that has been a leading source of concern for the Israeli home front was the cluster munitions affixed to Iranian ballistic missiles. These work by releasing a cluster of two dozen or so submunitions from a missile warhead about 10km above the ground, which then disperse over a wide area. They are designed to be used over large military targets, such as airfields, and their use over cities in the manner that Iran has used them in both this war and the Twelve Day War last June is illegal under international law.

March 9, 2026

War enters 10th day

What’s happened: The IDF and the US armed forces have kept up relentless strikes against the Iranian regime and military targets.

In the last 24 hours, more than 140 targets of the Iranian regime were bombed using more than 900 munitions. IDF Spokesperson Defrin said last night that the air force headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had been destroyed. The headquarters had been used to fire missiles and drones at the Israeli home front and at the Persian Gulf states.
On Sunday, the IDF eliminated Abu al-Qassem Baba’iyan in Tehran. Baba’iyan was only recently appointed as the Head of the Military Office of the Supreme Leader and the Chief of Staff of the emergency command of Headquarters. Baba’iyan was appointed after his predecessor, Ali Shadmani, was eliminated during Operation Rising Lion in June 2024.
Israel also targeted Iranian fuel storage facilities in Tehran on Saturday. This was the first reported attacks on Iran’s oil infrastructure since the start of the war. The IDF said the fuel was used for their missiles programme and to support their military and was therefore a legitimate target.
Iran meanwhile continues to fire missiles at Israel and overnight, air raid sirens were triggered in the centre of the country, the south, and the coastal region. Some of the missiles were intercepted and the others fell in uninhabited areas. There are reports this morning of six missiles hitting Tel Aviv area with two reportedly killed. Meanwhile, communities in the north remain under frequent rocket and drone attacks from Hezbollah.
The IDF has also continued its offensive again Hezbollah targets. This morning it carried out several waves of strikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut’s Dahiya neighbourhood. Lebanese media also reported an Israeli strike in southern Lebanon.
Also over the weekend, the Israeli Navy conducted a precision strike that eliminated five senior commanders in the IRGC Quds Force’s Lebanon Corps, while they were meeting at a hotel in Beirut.
Two IDF soldiers were killed on the Lebanese border yesterday. Sgt. Maj. Maher Khatar, 38, was laid to rest last night in Majdal Shams. The name of the second soldier has not yet been released. Prime Minister Netanyahu eulogised Maher as, “a brave fighter from the Druze community, [who] served as an example and inspiration to the youth of Majdal Shams who enlist in the ranks of the IDF, a growing trend in recent years that serves as an expression of the eternal covenant between us.”
Over the past week, in Lebanon, the IDF revealed that it, “struck over 600 terror targets across Lebanon from the air, sea, and ground, with some 820 munitions. During the strikes, more than 190 terrorists were eliminated, including the terrorist Abu Hamza Rami, the Commander of Islamic Jihad in Lebanon with the equivalent rank of Major General, two commanders at the equivalent rank of colonel, and three battalion commanders in the terrorist organisation. In addition, 27 waves of strikes were conducted in the Beirut region, including five in the Dahiya area.”
Iranian attacks on the Gulf states continued on Sunday, despite President Pezeshkian’s pledge on Saturday to halt them. This may suggest a rift between the political leadership and the IRGC, which is responsible for most military operations. The attacks are now targeting oil refineries and desalination plants that are vital to the economy and daily life in the Gulf states.

Context: Ten days into the campaign, the US and Israel continue their division of labour with systematic strikes on Iran’s military and industrial capabilities.

In the context of the war’s second phase (following the first phase of decapitation and establishing air superiority across most of Iran), the Israeli and US Air Forces are expanding the scope of their operations to increase the damage on Iran’s military, industrial and technological infrastructure. This includes strikes on IRGC headquarters, IRGC Air Force command centres, Basij and internal security headquarters.
An IDF general is quoted in Yediot Ahronot saying, “We can’t miss this opportunity. We mustn’t take our foot off the gas pedal until this regime collapses—neither we nor the United States. This is an opportunity that we won’t get again.”
From Israel’s perspective, one of the primary objectives remains the elimination of Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal. According to military estimates, Iran began the war with approximately 460 missile launchers and now has only about 150 left. Military officials describe creating ‘bottlenecks’ in the Iranian ability to launch heavy barrages, but they do retain some capabilities. Overall Iran has so far launched around 250 ballistic missiles towards Israel. Israel had anticipated around 150 a day.
13 people have been killed in Israel as a result of the Iranian strikes, with several more severely injured, including the fatalities from this morning.
Overall, Iran has so far launched a total of around 830 ballistic missiles and over 1,300 drones across the region. On the first day, Iran launched around 350 ballistic missiles and nearly 300 drones. Over the weekend, this had fallen to roughly 15–30 missiles a day.
The apparent appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Supreme Leader is being interpreted as a sign of ongoing Iranian belligerence. Israel’s Defence Minister Katz has stated that any successor would be considered a target. A more conciliatory candidate could have posed more of a dilemma, particularly for some US officials who have expressed a desire to reach a surrender agreement with a more pragmatic leadership.

Looking ahead: At present, the IDF is preparing for a war that could last several weeks.

Israeli military leaders recognise that the war will last as long as President Trump decides. Trump has suggested a military campaign would last about four weeks.
Israeli officials are conscious that as successful as their military action may be, it will ultimately also require action by the Iranian public in order to topple the regime.
In the US, there is speculation that Trump is considering sending in special forces in order to seize the stockpile of Iran’s approximate 450 kg of enriched uranium that remained following the June 2025 war.

March 5, 2026

With air superiority achieved, the war moves into phase two

Inside Iran: Last night IDF Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Defrin updated the public about Israeli achievements since the beginning of the war:

“We attacked, destroyed and decommissioned some 300 Iranian defence systems and ballistic missiles. We also struck targets from the Iranian nuclear programme. In addition, we struck targets in the industry of terrorism and strategic arms-production facilities. At the same time, we eliminated on the basis of intelligence and with precise execution many high-ranking commanders in the regime. We have struck the regime powerfully and we have no intention of stopping for a moment.”
White House Press Secretary Leavitt described, Operation Epic Fury as “a resounding success” adding that American forces have struck “more than 2,000 targets, destroying hundreds and hundreds of ballistic missiles, launchers and drones.” According to Leavitt, the US expects to have “complete and total dominance over Iranian airspace in the coming hours.”
The war has now passed the first 100 hours and its first stage has been completed. The first stage included:
- The initial tactical surprise that led to the elimination of 40 senior regime officials (in under a minute) in Tehran, including the most important one of all, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
- Following this, the non-stop bombing of aerial defence targets, surface-to-surface missiles, radar installations and detection systems.
- Within 48 hours Israel had achieve aerial superiority in Western Iran and over the skies over Tehran, and now they (along with the US) are close to aerial supremacy over the entire country.
- The next stage was the methodical hunting of remaining missile launchers, both hidden and mobile.
- Over the past 48 hours, Israel and the US have targeted the Iranians regime’s command and control centres, with the goal of disrupting Iran’s ability to control the fighting.
The IDF were particularly proud to announce yesterday the downing of an Iranian aircraft. This was the first time that an F-35 jet had downed an enemy fighter jet anywhere in the world. It was also the first time in 40 years that the Israeli Air Force had done so.
Commentators have noted that the dispatching of antiquated aircraft was a further sign of Iranian desperation and a final attempt to defend its airspace.
Israel can now proceed to the second stage of the war: the systematic destruction of the Iranian regime’s military capabilities. This will include thousands of targets.
Meanwhile according to the division of labour, the US are expected to complete the destruction of the Iranian navy within the next few days.
US media has reported thousands of Kurdish fighters from Iraq have launched a ground offensive last night on Iranian soil. The Economist reported that thousands of Kurdish fighters have been armed and trained by the CIA in recent months, and that most of the Iranian Kurds are waiting in Iranian territory for orders.

Israel’s home front: Iran fired several missiles at Israel, yesterday, last night, and again early this morning. Sirens sounded in central Israel and in the Jerusalem area. All of the missiles were intercepted. No casualties or damage was caused.

In northern Israel there were numerous sirens, mostly as a result of Hezbollah drones from Lebanon.
The overall assessment is the Iran’s capabilities are gradually being degraded. According to US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine there has been an 86 percent reduction in firing.
Were it not for Hezbollah’s rocket fire, the current situation would be even more stable.Israeli intelligence has assessed that the Hezbollah leadership came under heavy pressure from Iran to join the attacks on Israel. Wednesday saw instances of simultaneous attacks from Iran and Hezbollah, suggesting they are in coordination, but these attacks were on a much smaller scale than what Israel had prepared for.
As a result of the reduced attacks, Ben Gurion Airport has been reopened after five days in which it was shut down. A first flight from Athens landed at the airport earlier this morning. It is estimated that about 100,000 Israelis are stranded overseas and are waiting for an opportunity to return home. Around 10,000 Israelis are expected to arrive at the airport every day moving forward.
Also as a result of the reduction in incoming missiles the Home Front Command has revised its public guidelines. As of this morning, the public will be allowed to go to all places of work that have bomb shelters. Schools will remain closed for the time being. Gatherings of up to 50 people are now allowed under the revised guidelines, provided the people in attendance have access to adequate shelter.
Israel remains on alert for the possibility of the Houthis to also join the war.

Lebanon: Hezbollah has been trying to challenge IDF troops along the line of contact, notably attacking troops with ant-tank missiles.

Israel sees these attacks as a justification for moving ground troops into the border area, so that Hezbollah ground fire is directed at the soldiers and not civilian areas in northern Israel.
As a point of principle Israel has not called for the evacuation of any Israeli northern communities (unlike October 2023).
Whereas the IDF has called for a large temporary evacuation of Lebanese civilians to move north of the Litani river, as they will continue to target what remains of Hezbollah military infrastructure in southern Lebanon.
Throughout Wednesday the IDF also conducted a wave of strikes in Beirut targeting Hezbollah infrastructure. Targets included an underground weapon storage facility and additional command centres.
Israel remains vigilant to the possibility that elite Hezbollah Radwan troops will attempt to infiltrate into northern Israel.

March 3, 2026

IDF enters southern Lebanon to counter Hezbollah

What’s happening: IDF ground forces have begun moving into southern Lebanon this morning, capturing high ground near Israel’s border beyond the five outposts which have been held since the November 2024 ceasefire which ended major combat operations in Lebanon.

The ceasefire fell apart at 1:00 am yesterday when the Lebanese terrorist group launched rockets and drones at northern Israel. In a statement published yesterday, Hezbollah said the rocket and drone attack on Israel was “revenge for the pure blood of the Islamic leader, the Honourable Grand Ayatollah. His blood was shed in treachery by the criminal Zionist enemy, and in defence of Lebanon and its people.”
The IDF for its part continued its strikes against Hezbollah, launching three waves of air strikes yesterday against targets in southern Lebanon and in the Dahiya quarter of Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold.
The IDF also successfully eliminated the head of Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters, of Hussein Makled, as well as 70 different weapons storage sites and the site of a front organisation which raised funds for Hezbollah. Referring to the new front in this war, Defence Minister Israel Katz said, “We have struck the head of the Iranian octopus, and we are now working to crush and sever its arms.”
In another significant development, for the first time, the Lebanese government outlawed Hezbollah.
- Following an emergency cabinet meeting earlier Monday, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said: “The Lebanese state declares its absolute and unequivocal rejection of any military or security actions launched from Lebanese territory outside the framework of its legitimate institutions.
- “This necessitates the immediate prohibition of all of Hezbollah’s security and military activities, considering them to be outside the law, and obliging it to hand over its weapons”.
Meanwhile, Iran continued to attack its neighbours yesterday. One civilian was killed in a missile and drone attack on Manama in Bahrain. Qatar reported damage to energy and infrastructure sites caused by Iranian attacks, while also claiming that it shot down two Iranian fighter jets. Other Iranian attacks targeted sites in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, including the US embassies in Riyadh and Kuwait City. By far, the largest barrages were aimed at the United Arab Emirates.
Israeli civilians raced to shelters throughout the day yesterday, though the pace of Iranian missile attacks on Israel seemed to be slowing down considerably in comparison to the first two days of the war.
CENTCOM said this morning that US forces had successfully destroyed “Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command and control facilities, Iranian air defence capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and military airfields.”
Overnight, the Israeli Air Force struck command centres belonging to the Interior Security and the Ministry of Intelligence in the heart of Tehran.
Prime Minister Netanyahu gave an interview to the US Fox Network where he indicated that Iran was about to pass a threshold in its weapons programme before the new offensive began on February 28. “If no action was taken now,” he said in his only major media appearance since the war began, “no action could be taken in the future, and then they could target America, they could blackmail America, they could threaten us and threaten everyone in between. So action had to be taken.”
France announced that it would be sending anti-missile and anti-drone systems to Cyprus to protect the British sovereign bases there.

Context: Israeli officials have emphasised that Iran remains the primary theatre of action, having already exceeded the air sorties and strikes they conducted over 12 days last June in just three days.

US officials made multiple statements to different media outlets regarding the US’s reasons for going to war now, some of which emphasised different considerations and many of which were subsequently selectively quoted for competing political purposes.
- Steve Witkoff, who represented the Trump administration in negotiations in February on Iran’s nuclear programme, related that Iranian negotiators told him that they had enough enriched uranium to make 11 nuclear bombs.
- “That was the beginning of their negotiating stance,” he said. “They were proud of it and that they evaded all sorts of oversight protocols to get to a place where they could deliver 11 nuclear bombs.”
- Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the timing of the US offensive was accelerated to pre-empt what was assumed to be an Iranian response to Israel’s assassination operation on Saturday morning. Multiple media outlets took the quote out of context to suggest that Israel had “dragged” US into war.
Iran continues to struggle to mount an effective response to the US-Israeli offensive. According to some media reports, Foreign Minister Araghchi has been telling his Arab counterparts that the Iranian attacks on neighbouring Arab Gulf monarchies in the past two days are against the explicit wishes of President Pezeshkian, but that he is unable to exercise effective control over all of the country’s armed forces.
The Gulf countries voted yesterday in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to allow member states to decide each on their own whether to launch counter-strikes on Iran. If any do, it is expected that they would target oil facilities in Iran, something US and Israeli airstrikes have, for now, avoided.
Israel’s targeting of facilities associated with the regime, and in particular those associated with the repression of protests in January is an indication of two things.
- First, that the IDF has achieved complete air superiority over Iran and is now able to hit targets of choice while overflying them directly.
- Second, that both the US and Israel are positioning themselves such that they could declare a unilateral ceasefire when convenient and then wait for domestic opposition to depose the regime. Implicit in this is the assumption that if a ceasefire does not lead to such a result, hostilities can be resumed at any time.
COGAT announced that it will reopen the Kerem Shalom crossing for the “gradual entry of humanitarian aid” into Gaza beginning tomorrow. The crossing was closed on Saturday when the war in Iran began. Its reopening will be coordinated with the US Civil-Military Coordination Center (CMCC), the international body that has been responsible for coordinating stabilisation and relief efforts in Gaza since the ceasefire there went into effect in October last year.

Looking ahead: It is not clear what the Iranian strategy of missile attacks on neighbours, including Israel is. Israeli officials claimed yesterday that the decreased pace of missile launches was testament to the success of air strikes on launchers and other facilities. Other have speculated that the Iranians are holding back as part of a long-term husbanding of their munitions in preparation for a long war of attrition.

Israeli officials have warned that Israel and the US are expected to further intensify their strikes in the coming days.

March 2, 2026

Hezbollah attacks as nine Israeli killed by Iranian missile

What’s happening: Hezbollah launched a rocket and drone attack on northern Israel last night just before 1:00 am local time, effectively ending the ceasefire in place in Lebanon since its defeat in November 2024. The Lebanese terrorist group, funded and trained by Iran, said that its rocket attack on Israel was in response to Israel’s elimination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

Lebanese state media reported that the Lebanese Justice Minister ordered the arrest of those responsible for the rocket fire on Israel last night. In the November 2024 ceasefire, Lebanon committed itself to disarming Hezbollah, a process that had been underway, albeit not at a pace or thoroughness that was satisfactory to Israel and other parties to the ceasefire, including the United States.
Israel responded with a massive military operation against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, including in the Dahiya Quarter of Beirut, the Beqaa Valley, and southern Lebanon. “We are not only operating defensively – we are now going on the offensive as well,” Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir announced this morning.“ We must prepare for many prolonged days of combat ahead.” Lebanese officials reported 39 deaths and 149 injuries as a result of the Israeli air strikes this morning.
According to a Saudi media report, the head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc Mohammad Raad was eliminated earlier today.
The IDF’s Arabic-Language Spokesperson Lt. Col. Ella Waweya called on civilians to evacuate 53 Lebanese villages along the country’s southern border with Israel.
Prime Minister Starmer announced a partial reversal of his decision not to allow US forces to use British bases to conduct attacks on Iran, following the targeting by Iran of British bases in both Cyprus and the Gulf. He emphasised in his public statement that Britain would not be participating in offensive operations. “We were not involved in the initial strikes on Iran,” he said in a video released by Number 10, “and we will not join offensive action now.”
Nine Israelis were killed in Beit Shemesh yesterday when an Iranian missile slammed into a bomb shelter inside a synagogue. It is the deadliest single incident caused by any Iranian missile in Israel in either the current war or the one last June.

Context: The expansion of the war into Lebanon comes on a backdrop of Israeli operations in the weeks preceding the new war preparing for just such an eventuality. At least eight different reported air strikes took place between February 16 and February 22. Fourteen people were killed in these strikes, including two Hamas operative and ten members of a Hezbollah rocket cell. In the latter strike, which took place on February 20, much of Hezbollah’s long-rage rocket store was reportedly destroyed as well.

Lebanon was not the only country dragged into the Iranian regime’s struggle to survive the Israeli-American offensive. Iranian drones hit the RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, causing damages but no injuries. Meanwhile, Iranian rockets and drones have been launched at targets in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan, and Iraq, largely, but not entirely, at US facilities including airbases and embassies.
In Saudi Arabia, a major oil refinery in Ras Tanura, near the border with Bahrain, was hit by debris from intercepted drones. According to the Saudi Ministry of Energy, the fire at the refinery is now under control, no one was injured, and there should be no impact on supplies.
The air offensive in Iran took on a very different character yesterday.
- On Saturday morning, the war opened with Israeli-led targeted strikes on senior regime figures, including most notably the Supreme Leader Khamenei. Throughout the day, US and Israeli planes targeted missile launchers and other military facilities, with particular emphasis on suppression of enemy air defence (SEAD) operations.
- With air superiority achieved, a new wave of airstrikes were launched at regime targets, particularly those associated with the brutal crackdown on protestors in January. Command and control systems, bases, and headquarters of the Revolutionary Guards and the notorious Basij militia were the principal targets yesterday, with unconfirmed reports that hundreds and possibly more were killed in these operations.
- If protestors once more take to the streets, it will be Basij and Revolutionary Guard men who are tasked with once more putting them down by force.
The choice of targets would indicate that the US is keen to move on all four of the issues it had raised with Iranians in negotiations that took place before the onset of hostilities: the nuclear programme, the ballistic missile programme, regional proxies, and the violent crackdown.
It further indicates that American planners both see regime change as a real possibility and but do not believe that American forces should or could be the ones to bring it to fruition.
This operation appears intended not just to reduce Iran’s capability to threaten its neighbours, including close US allies, but also, when the day comes, to make it impossible for the Islamist regime to be able to protect itself from the wrath of its own public.
The IDF released figures from its own assessments of operations in the first two days of the war in Iran. According IDF estimates, hundreds of Iranian missile were destroyed along with 200 launchers, roughly 50% of Iran’s total before the onset of the current war. Iran’s central explosive production site was destroyed, as were multiple sites connected to missile production and the production of anti-tank weapons for shipment to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The reaction of UK politicians has been mixed. Keen to avoid comparisons to Tony Blair’s Iraq war, PM Kier Starmer has been quick to distance himself from the strikes, as some claim the war on Iran is illegal. By comparison, others claim the Prime Minister has embarrassed the UK, by leaving our key allies to fight a common enemy alone. With the recent by-election loss, and local elections coming in May 2026, the government are clearly nervous that this conflict will be used as a tool for opponents, such as the Green party, to defeat Labour.

Looking ahead: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz arrives in Washington today. His position on the war in Iran has been only slightly less ambiguous than Starmer’s and Macron’s. Yesterday he told reporters that “we share the US’ interest in seeing an end to this regime’s terror and a halt to dangerous nuclear and ballistic armament” and that “we are not lecturing our partners on their military strikes against Iran.” All this was said without actually endorsing the Israeli-American operation and explicitly casting doubt on whether it could achieve its stated goals.

IDF Spokesperson Effie Defrin said this morning that Israel was not planning a ground operation in Lebanon. He further said that the war in Iran “will last as long as it lasts.”

February 23, 2026

Israel intensifies strikes against Hezbollah, amid continued Iran-US tension

What’s happening: Over the weekend the IDF carried out a sharp escalation in its campaign against Hezbollah, striking deep into Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley.

The IDF simultaneously dropped six bombs on three Hezbollah command centres in Baalbek, eliminating ten people, at least eight of whom were Hezbollah operatives. They included commanders Ali Zeid al-Mousawi, Muhammad Ibrahim al-Mousawi, and Hussein Mohammed Yaghi.
The IDF Spokesperson’s Office confirmed a “large number” of terrorists were eliminated who were preparing rocket launchers, in direct breach of post-2024 ceasefire terms. This followed detection of unusual Hezbollah rocket-unit activity.
Citing this unusual Hezbollah rocket-unit activity, Israel assesses the group is priming to launch missiles on Israel should the US strike Iran. According to the Saudi newspaper, Al-Arabiya, sources described the Baalbek hits as a “preview” of wider operations timed to any US-Iran clash, noting Hezbollah is now led by freshly arrived IRGC officers rather than solely Lebanese commanders.
The IDF also targeted a Hamas command post in Sidon’s Ein el-Hilweh camp, broadening pressure on Iran’s networks.
The weekend strikes were preceded on Thursday night with multiple strikes across southern Lebanon. According to the military, the targets included weapons depots, missile launchers, and additional military facilities used by Hezbollah.

Context: The placement of Iranian IRGC officers within Hezbollah’s operational command structure underpins the importance Iran places on their premier proxy organisation.

Iran may be hoping this serves as a further deterrent against a US attack. It is also understood that Iran will be priming other regional proxies including Shiite militias from Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen
The Baalbek strikes expose Iran’s forward base in Lebanon, testing whether Hezbollah’s loyalty to Iran will override local Lebanese interests. For Israel this is not as parochial sparring but a rehearsal for a potentially wider confrontation. The aim is to deliberately degrade IRGC-linked infrastructure and to deter multi-front escalation while leveraging an ongoing aerial superiority.
Since the November 2024 ceasefire, the IDF claims to have struck over 350 Hezbollah operatives, striking hundreds of terror targets and over 1,200 raids in south Lebanon.
It is estimated that Hezbollah still possesses tens of thousands of missiles, rockets and mortars though most of these are thought to be short range. It remains unclear how much of their precision-guided missiles capacity they retain, amid ongoing efforts of the IDF to degrade it.
Formally, the Lebanese government condemns strikes as “aggression” and asserts sovereignty, yet remains impotent.
Moreover, Israeli defence officials are increasingly displeased with UNIFIL’s conduct, particularly over the last few weeks. Officials said that the international force has taken a belligerent stance toward the IDF and the State of Israel both in its coordination with the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and in hostile statements it has released. It is understood that Israel would prefer for the IDF to work directly with the LAF, without UNIFIL’s mediation.
Hezbollah is trying to carefully calibrate its position. Rhetorically it remains bound to Iran, but economic and internal Lebanese pressure could ultimately yield a more subdued stance.
The IDF’s logic is to prevent a multi-front attack on Israel. In the Lebanese context, they retain support from the US to target Hezbollah efforts to rebuild military post, tunnels, as well as to replenish weapons depots and launchers.
Commentators across the Hebrew press underscore this as pre-emptive muscularity. Haaretz notes the strikes’ “chilling precision” tests Hezbollah’s restraint under IRGC tutelage, questioning if Tehran’s bidding overrides Lebanese survival instincts. Maariv frames Baalbek as “Iran’s forward operating base exposed,” with IRGC dominance eroding Hezbollah’s local agency. Israel Hayom hails it as “quiet resolve,” leveraging air edge to enforce red lines without ground entanglement.
In addition, it is understood that the IDF has prepared plans to carry out a major strike on Hezbollah particularly as a result of the speed of its rearmament over the past year. At the same time, Israel’s defence capabilities against Hezbollah’s missiles and rockets have improved greatly, and in the next conflict the anti-missile laser system is expected to be fully operational.

Looking ahead: IDF incremental operations in Lebanon targeting more Hezbollah assets are expected to continue.

The USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group is close to reaching the eastern Mediterranean.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi is once more expected to meet US Special Envoy Witkoff on Thursday in Geneva.

February 19, 2026

Israel braces for Iran’s next move

What’s happening: Israel is on high alert for a dramatic escalation in Iran as the US continue to concentrate its forces in the region. However, schools remain open and citizens continue their daily routines.

Indirect talks in Geneva between the US and Iran continue to generate vastly contradictory assessments from named and unnamed officials from both countries.
Yesterday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told reporters that following talks in Geneva, there was agreement between the sides on a “set of guiding principles.” A statement from the Iranian Foreign Ministry reported that, in a call with IAEA chief Rafael Grossi, Araghchi “stressed the Islamic Republic of Iran’s focus on drafting an initial and coherent framework to advance future talks.”
Trump’s spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told reporters yesterday in the White House that “a little bit of progress” was made during the recent talks, but that the sides are “still very far apart on some issues.”
“The Iranians are expected to come back to us with some more detail in the next couple of weeks, so the president will continue to watch how this plays out” she added. “The president has been very clear with respect to Iran and any country around the world that diplomacy is always his first option and Iran would be very wise to make a deal.”
Reports in the US media indicate that the US could be ready to mount a massive aerial offensive in Iran by sometime this weekend.
Yesterday, the aircraft carrier USS Gerald Ford crossed the Straits of Gibraltar and is anticipated to reach the eastern Mediterranean within 48 hours.
Overnight, the IDF carried out multiple air strikes in Lebanon on Hezbollah targets, including weapons storage facilities, missile launchers and military installations being used to plan attacks against Israel.
The US is withdrawing all 1,000 of its troops from Syria, following the new Syrian regime’s consolidation of power, especially in the Kurdish regions of northeastern Syria. During the first Trump Administration, a similar decision by the President in 2018 led to an abrupt withdrawal of all 2,000 American troops then stationed in Syria as well.

Context: US demands centre on the Iranian nuclear programme and the ballistic missile programme, as well as ending support for its regional proxies and granting a measure of freedom to anti-regime protesters.

US officials in Geneva and Washington are quoted in various media outlets, usually anonymously, as being extremely sceptical about any agreement being reached, with many pointing out disputes even regarding which topics are on the table.
Israel’s Channel 12 quoted a senior US official as describing the talks in Geneva as a “nothing burger.” Another official quoted said Iran has until the end of the month to agree to a package of significant concessions on its nuclear program and that President Trump is “very close” to giving orders for a major strike.
A report in the Wall Street Journal described US military options for a weeks-long operation as including a campaign to eliminate dozens of Iranian political and military leaders in an effort to overthrow the government. Another option under consideration is a more limited air campaign targeting nuclear and ballistic-missile facilities.
The USS Gerald Ford will join the USS Abraham Lincoln, which is already positioned in the Persian Gulf region, as well as dozens of fuel tankers and more than 50 F-35, F-22 and F-16 fighter jets which have moved from various US bases to the region.
In the event of renewed fighting between Israel and Iran, Iran would likely wish to see Hezbollah use what is left of its missile capabilities against Israel, something Hezbollah refrained from doing during the Twelve Day War last June.
Israel believes that Iran has poured upwards of $1 billion worth of military aid to Hezbollah just over the last year, with the understanding that in a future war, Hezbollah would come to Iran’s side and attack Israel from Lebanon.
Israeli officials expect to receive some kind of short notice of an impending US operation, if one is ultimately ordered. There were reports in Israeli media that intelligence officials believe that Iran might refrain from attacking Israel if Israel is not involved in the US strike, largely out of fear of what an Israeli retaliation might look like. All sides consider it unlikely that US air strikes, however devastating, could on their own deliver regime change.

Looking ahead: Representatives of 45 nations will take part in the launch of President Trump’s Board of Peace today. The meeting will take place in the recently renamed Donald J. Trump US Institute of Peace on Constitution Avenue in Washington, DC. Trump is expected to announce $5 billion in pledges from donor nations for Gaza reconstruction, including $1.2 billion from each of two close US allies in the Gulf, Kuwait and the UAE.

The Board will likely make formal announcements of states participating in the planned International Stabilisation Force, but it is unclear for now if there will ever be a formal announcement of the ISF’s mandate or a detailed plan for the disarmament of Hamas.
A senior US official said that Secretary of State Rubio will visit Israel on February 28.

February 18, 2026

Ramadan begins amid disarmament disputes on every front

What’s happening: The beginning of Ramadan sees a tense quiet on all fronts.

In Jerusalem, thousands of police officers are in the streets as tens of thousands of worshippers are expected to make their way to the Al Aqsa Mosque in the Old City, especially on Fridays.
The Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) announced that Israel would grant permits to 10,000 West Bank Palestinians to enter Jerusalem for Friday prayers at the Al‑Aqsa Mosque compound. Similar to last year, only males aged 55 and above, women 50 and above, and children 12 and below when accompanied by a first-degree relative will be allowed entry.
In the West Bank, the IDF and Border Patrol have deployed special forces to deal with the increased tensions.
British Prime Minister Starmer spoke to US President Trump last night about negotiations between the US and Iran, as well as the situation in Gaza.
It comes as Iran claimed to have come to a “general understanding” with the US on the range of topics under negotiation, despite there being no confirmation of this from US officials. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who is leading the Iranian delegation in Geneva, told Iranian state media there had been “positive progress” in discussions on sanctions and nuclear programme.
On a Fox News interview yesterday, Vice President JD Vance described the recent talks with Iran as “in some ways… went well” but noted that the Islamic Republic remains unwilling to accept some of President Trump’s nuclear red lines. “Our primary interest here is we don’t want Iran to get a nuclear weapon. We don’t want nuclear proliferation,” Vance said, adding that the US would very much like to resolve this through a conversation and a diplomatic negotiation, but all options are on the table.
Also yesterday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei warned President Trump that the Islamic Republic cannot be overthrown.
Iran’s proxy force in Lebanon, Hezbollah, rejected the Lebanese government’s plan to continue the next stage of the disarmament which it accepted as a condition for the ceasefire that has been in place since November 2024.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem said in a speech on Monday that “what the Lebanese government is doing by focusing on disarmament is a major mistake because this issue serves the goals of Israeli aggression,” while Shia ministers walked out of Monday’s cabinet session in protest.

Context: All three ceasefires from the past year – in Lebanon, Iran, and Gaza – are stuck on one form or another on the issue of disarmament.

Despite public optimism from both Iranian and US officials about negotiations underway in Geneva, Israeli observers remain sceptical that any agreement can be reached and Israel continues to prepare for a US operation in Iran.
Iranian and US negotiators have not come to an agreement on shipping Iran’s stocks of enriched uranium out of the country, and the Iranians reject any limitations on the range of their ballistic missiles as “illogical,” in the words of the Supreme Leader Khamenei.
The Lebanese plan for disarming Hezbollah would see the Lebanese Armed Forces carry out a decommissioning of Hezbollah weapons in the area north of the Litani River and up to the Awali River, about 40 kilometres south of Beirut, over the next four months. This follows what the Lebanese claim is a successful decommissioning south of the Litani River and up to the border with Israel, though Israel disputes much of the Lebanese claim of successful disarmament there.
It is in Gaza, however, that the issue is most acute. Morocco, Albania, and Greece signalled yesterday that they could join Indonesia in contributing forces to the International Stabilisation Force, which is supposed to enforce the ceasefire in effect since October 2025. But none of these countries is preparing a force which can actively disarm Hamas.
With no path to Hamas disarmament, there is no guarantee that a renewal of combat is not in the offing. And as long as that is the case, it is unlikely any real investment in Gaza’s reconstruction will take place.

Looking ahead: Tomorrow in Washington the Board of Peace will hold its inaugural meeting with Israel represented by Foreign Minister Gideon Saar. The Board of Peace will have to formulate plans for reconstruction and disarmament, and it will have to lay out a mandate for the ISF. It will also likely formalise the role of the technocratic transitional government which has yet to enter Gaza.

The Iranian semi-official news agency Fars reported that Iran and Russia will conduct navy drills in the Sea of Oman and the northern Indian Ocean tomorrow.

February 10, 2026

IDF confronts terrorists in Rafah, Syria and Lebanon

What’s happening: In Rafah, in the south of the Gaza Strip, four Hamas terrorists emerged from a tunnel and attacked IDF troops on the Israeli side of the Yellow Line. The soldiers returned fire and eliminated all four gunmen.

An IDF operation in Syria yesterday destroyed a weapons depot belonging to the al-Jama’a al-Islamiyya (Islamic Group) terror group. The IDF’s announcement of the operation noted that the depot was located thanks to precise intelligence on the group’s activities.
Earlier this week, an IDF operation in Lebanon resulted in the capture of a senior member of the terrorist organisation, known for its close links with both Hezbollah and the foreign operations of Hamas. When his capture was announced, he was described as a “high-quality intelligence target.”
Domestically, the Israeli political discussion is still dominated by reactions to the 55-page document released by the Prime Minister last week which spelled out his actions and statements in the lead-up to Hamas’s October 7 attack. The document included many quotes from Cabinet protocols that cast Netanyahu in a flattering light and portray him as alert to the Hamas threat while being stymied at every step by the security establishment.
Critics, including opposition politicians and former security officials, pushed back on the claims in the document and pointed to many places where context was missing that apparently changed the entire import of the quotes statements attributed both to the Prime Minister and senior security officials. Benny Gantz called it a “rewriting of history,” while Yair Lapid called it a “falsification of security protocols in an official document issued by the Prime Minister’s Office, in a way that must have been intentional.”
The Israeli cabinet approved measures pushed by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to broaden Israel’s civil powers in the West Bank, notably on property, planning, and the management of two holy sites. The measures are technical, but their impact could be broad, making it much easier for Israeli citizens to purchase property from Palestinians in the West Bank.
The Trump Administration did not directly condemn this move, but it did issue a statement reiterating that “President Trump has clearly stated that he does not support Israel annexing the West Bank.”

Context: Dozens of Hamas fighters are suspected to still be hiding out in tunnels on the Israeli side of the line, and incidents such as this one have become a regular occurrence since the ceasefire went into effect last October.

The al-Jama’a al-Islamiyya organisation has been operating in Lebanon and Syria since the 1980s in cooperation with other larger terrorist organisations. Its independent standing was not affected by the ceasefires agreed to by Hezbollah in 2024 and Hamas in 2025.
Al-Jama’a al-Islamiyya is, like Hamas, a Muslim Brotherhood affiliate. Following leadership changes in 2022, the Lebanese branch pursued a closer alliance with Hamas and Hezbollah, setting aside past differences to focus on fighting Israel.
The decisions made on the West Bank don’t change the legal status of any territory and don’t herald any dramatic demographic changes either. They are all minor legal changes that grant more civil powers to Israel, rather than leaving the territory to be governed as an occupied territory by the IDF.
The changes are technical and may not withstand challenges in Israeli courts. But taken together, they could dramatically alter the balance of power in the territory between the IDF, the Palestinian Authority, and the civilian aspects of the West Bank settler enterprise.
- One notable change is to open up property registries. These have been mostly sealed for decades. Making them available to the public could make it easier to locate absentee property holders to offer to buy land from.
- A second change repeals a Jordanian ban on land sales that made it effectively illegal for a Palestinian in the West Bank to sell any property to an Israeli.
- A third change broadens the powers of Civil Administration planning authorities to parts of the West Bank that lie outside Israeli settlements.
- A fourth change establishes new authorities under Israeli control for the management of two holy sites, Rachel’s Tomb on the outskirts of Bethlehem and the Tomb of the Patriarchs in Hebron.
In the background of this decision are two major political weaknesses. First, the party of Bezalel Smotrich, the Minister most associated with this decision, is polling at or below the electoral threshold. And secondly, the settler movement itself has not been able to bring more Israelis to move from Israel into the West Bank. Nearly all of the population growth of Israelis in the West Bank has been confined to three ultra-orthodox settlements right on the Green Line, with negative net migration for many of the remaining 120 or so settlements deeper in the territory.

Looking ahead: Prime Minister Netanyahu leaves for Washington today for private talks with President Trump about the Iran situation. Contrary to earlier reports, he will not be taking with him a delegation of senior military and security officials. Unlike previous trips to the White House, this one is designated as a closed meeting, and there are no scheduled public events or media availabilities.

While it is likely that Iran will be the main focus of talks, we might as well expect that Netanyahu and Trump will touch on other issues such as the situation in Lebanon and reconstruction of Gaza.
There is still no date for the beginning of operations for Gaza “technocratic” governance committee, the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG). This is despite reports that it might be entering the Strip this coming week.
It was reported yesterday that up to 8000 soldiers from Indonesia could be headed to Gaza as part of the International Stabilisation Force (ISF). This is the first major commitment of manpower to the ISF, though here too there was no date given for when the operation would be underway. Indonesia does not have diplomatic relations with Israel.

January 16, 2026

Iran unrest exposes regime vulnerability, says Israeli historian

Iran’s ongoing protests represent the most sustained and socially broad challenge to the Islamic Republic in years, but there are still no clear signs the regime is close to collapse, according to Eyal Zisser, Chair of Contemporary Middle Eastern History at Tel Aviv University.

Speaking with BICOM’s CEO Richard Pater, Professor Zisser said the current wave of unrest differs sharply from previous episodes. “What we are seeing is unprecedented,” he said. “This time the scale and duration are different. The protests are continuing, and more and more segments of Iranian society are joining.”

Unlike earlier demonstrations that were confined to specific groups or cities, the current unrest has drawn in students, women, workers and parts of the urban middle class across the country. “Different social groups are effectively joining hands,” Zisser noted, adding that the protests are affecting day-to-day life well beyond Tehran.

However, he cautioned against overstating their immediate impact. “The regime remains strong,” he said. “It still has powerful instruments of repression, particularly the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij, and we do not yet see signs of the regime disintegrating.”

A changed strategic context

What makes this moment distinct, Zisser argued, is the wider strategic environment. Last summer, Israeli actions targeting regime-linked military assets, carefully calibrated to avoid civilian harm, have punctured the perception of Iranian invulnerability.

“This was important psychologically,” he said. “It showed that the regime is not as strong as many people believed, and that can encourage people in Iran to take to the streets.”

The posture of the United States also matters. In contrast to previous administrations that relied largely on rhetoric, Zisser suggested that sustained political and economic pressure could have a real impact. “I don’t expect a military occupation of Iran,” he said, “but the goal is to undermine the regime’s confidence and capacity to rule.”

Concerns that external pressure could backfire by rallying Iranians around the regime are misplaced, he added. “Pressure is not directed against the Iranian people. They are not naïve, they understand where responsibility lies.”

Watching for cracks

Historically, regime collapse in Iran and elsewhere has been preceded by fractures within the security forces. For now, Zisser said, those signs are absent. “We don’t see hesitation or defection within the Revolutionary Guards or Basij yet,” he said. “But this is something to watch very closely. If that happens, it would be a decisive indicator.”

Other warning signs include symbolic acts of dissent. Zisser pointed to instances of Iranian athletes refusing to participate in regime rituals, such as declining to sing the national anthem. “These are small signs, but they matter,” he said. “They show erosion of legitimacy.”

At the same time, he warned that a regime under pressure may seek to externalise the crisis. “When regimes feel they are losing control, they sometimes look for confrontation abroad,” he said, noting that Israel, Arab states and Western interests could all become targets.

Lebanon: Hezbollah unchecked

Turning to Israel’s northern border, Zisser was unsparing in his assessment of Lebanon. “It’s not that the Lebanese government isn’t doing enough, it is doing almost nothing,” he said.

The Lebanese Armed Forces, he argued, are unwilling and unable to confront Hezbollah, whose core military capabilities remain intact despite limited Israeli operations. “Missile stockpiles and production facilities are still there, many of them deep inside Lebanon, not just in the south.”

Israel’s current approach reflects a desire to avoid escalation, but Zisser stressed that the underlying problem remains unresolved. “Israel cannot simply give up,” he said, adding that Hezbollah’s fortunes are inseparable from those of Iran. “If Iran weakens, Hezbollah weakens.”

Syria and the Druze question

On Syria, Zisser said recent US rhetoric about the new leadership reflects a search for stability rather than confidence in long-term change. “Syria remains fragmented, and trust is minimal,” he said. Any meaningful security arrangement involving Israel would require time, confidence-building, and a significant reduction in Iranian influence.

Particular concern remains for the Druze community in southern Syria. While ceasefires exist, Zisser described them as fragile. Israeli proposals for humanitarian corridors are understandable, he said, but “from Damascus’s perspective they are unacceptable.”

Gaza: no rebuilding without demilitarisation

Asked about Gaza, Zisser expressed scepticism about ambitious reconstruction plans absent a fundamental shift in reality on the ground. “Hamas will not disarm voluntarily,” he said, “and Israel will not accept arrangements that leave Hamas militarily intact.”

Past experience, he argued, has shaped Israeli thinking. “Israel has learned that withdrawing without ensuring demilitarisation only leads to renewed conflict.” Without a new political and security framework, reconstruction risks laying the groundwork for the next war rather than lasting stability.

LATEST

US deepens strikes inside Iran as ceasefire crumbles

Knesset continues legislative blitz

UK designates IRGC under new hostile states powers

Election to be held on October 27

UK strengthens law against hostile state proxies

US expands strikes on Iran