In this episode, Richard Pater speaks with author and commentator Yaakov Katz about the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire and the wider strategic implications of the war with Hezbollah. Katz examines Hezbollah’s use of fibre-optic drones and the significance of the IDF’s return to Beaufort Castle. He also relates to the emerging competition among the candidates to be the next prime minister.
Yaakov Katz is a former military correspondent and editor-in-chief of The Jerusalem Post, where he continues to write a weekly column. He is the author of four books, relating to Israeli security including his most recent work on October 7. He also served as a senior foreign policy advisor to then Minister of Education and Diaspora Affairs Naftali Bennett.
Transcript
(This transcript has been automatically generated by AI — please excuse any potential errors.)
00:00:07:01 – 00:00:20:24
Richard Pater
Hello and welcome to the latest BICOM briefing and podcast recording. I’m Richard Pater, the director of BICOM, and today is the 4th of June. Our guest today is the author and commentator Yaakov Katz. Yakov, thank you very much indeed for joining us.
00:00:21:00 – 00:00:21:22
Yaakov Katz
My pleasure.
00:00:22:01 – 00:00:43:16
Richard Pater
For background, he is formerly a security correspondent for many years at The Jerusalem Post and went on to become their editor in chief as well, where he continues to write a weekly column. He’s also the author of four books Shadow Strike, which was related to Israel’s attack on the Syria’s nuclear program, The Shadow War, which is about Israel and Iran.
00:00:43:16 – 00:01:05:04
Richard Pater
Not so much in the shadow these days. Weapons Wizards, which was a look into Israel’s high tech military accomplishments, and most recently, his book about the failures of Israel over October the 7th. We may relate to some of that material going forward. He was also served for a couple of years as a senior policy advisor to Naftali Bennett.
00:01:05:05 – 00:01:31:16
Richard Pater
So, if we’ve got time, we’ll also touch on some of the political issues. But perhaps we’ll start with the kind of the breaking news from overnight that Israel and Lebanon have reached a cease fire coordinated in the US. But before we talk about the actual deal, Ya’akov, I wanted to take your experience, particularly as a military correspondent, also relating to your book Weapons Wizards, and talk about some tactical issues before we move into the to the strategy.
00:01:31:17 – 00:01:53:05
Richard Pater
So, my first question really on the tactics is, you know, Israel has been shocked over the last few weeks about the proliferation and success of the fibre optic drones that Hezbollah has successfully deployed. I just wondered what your take in reaction to their success and why Israel hasn’t found a tech solution to combat that threat.
00:01:53:06 – 00:02:23:22
Yaakov Katz
Well, first of all, great to be with you and to be with BICOM. I mean, definitely a very tactical weapon that Hezbollah has been using. Having strategic consequences for the state of Israel and for the IDF, primarily because of just how effective they’ve become. So, with the ability to and tragically, it’s happening almost every couple of days. We hear about another soldier who’s been killed, or several who have been wounded because of his effective use.
00:02:23:23 – 00:03:02:02
Yaakov Katz
Why that becomes then a strategic weapon is because it impacts society and people within Israel, who then start to question what is the purpose of the presence of the IDF in southern Lebanon? What good is coming of this operation? Why are they even there to begin with? So even if it’s 12, 13, 14 soldiers by now, I don’t remember the exact number who have been killed by these first-person view drones that is deteriorating or eroding Israeli support and understanding of why the soldiers are there.
00:03:02:03 – 00:03:22:11
Yaakov Katz
I think there’s a number of issues here because you’re right. Israel has proven a capability over decades to be able to improvise and adapt on the battlefield to see a new threat to merging, or a new weapon that’s being used against it, and to come up with a solution to be able to counter that threat. There are solutions.
00:03:22:11 – 00:03:44:21
Yaakov Katz
Some of them are low tech, some of them are high tech. I mean, just one word about themselves. Nothing dramatic here, right? Some of them can be bought off the shelf as a drone that’s already made. Some of them are assembled. It seems that in the Hezbollah case, at least, most of them are assembled by Hezbollah self in different production facilities that they’ve created throughout Lebanon.
00:03:44:22 – 00:04:13:10
Yaakov Katz
You buy the products wherever they are, and you put these drones together. A lot of Chinese made elements and components that go into it. And then what they oftentimes do is attach either a mortar or the, the, the, the grenade part of the of an RPG, you know, weighs maybe two kilo and that’s the payload. And they can fly them and then just crash them into a soldier who they might see a group of soldiers and IDF vehicle.
00:04:13:12 – 00:04:34:22
Yaakov Katz
There’s a video that Hezbollah put out. The IDF isn’t really talking about it, but you can see it based on the footage where one of these drones’ crashes into an Iron Dome missile launcher that’s deployed near the border on the Israeli side. If there was damage, and would the extent of that damage? We don’t exactly know, but we can assume that some damage was caused to the launcher.
00:04:34:23 – 00:05:02:24
Yaakov Katz
What makes these particularly complicated to intercept is that drones that, you know, is a whole world. There are those that fly with like airplanes. They have they need a runway. Israel uses a lot of these. The Iranians, let’s say, have the Shahid drone, which is maybe the closest variant that they have. And they’ve also potentially given it to different proxies that those also have a radar signature.
00:05:02:24 – 00:05:27:17
Yaakov Katz
They fly at higher altitudes, are able to see them coming, and then you could try to intercept them either with electronic warfare or by literally a helicopter just shooting them down or an airplane, a fighter jet shooting them down. These quadcopters, which are much smaller, number one, because they fly at lower altitudes and because they’re really small, their radar signature is almost nothing.
00:05:27:18 – 00:05:50:11
Yaakov Katz
Number one. Number two is if you do see them, it’s very difficult to know. Are they being it actually a drone? Is it a quadcopter or is it an FPV or is it maybe a crow or a flock of birds that’s coming at you? So, then you might wait. And if you wait, by the time it’s you already hear it or even potentially see it, that’s going to be too late to be able to really deal with it.
00:05:50:11 – 00:06:12:23
Yaakov Katz
So, any scrambling or electronic warfare that you might want to use, if you want to just scramble radio frequencies in the area of operations, is not effective here because they use fibre optic cables. So that’s what gives it the ability it has like a spool of cable that it as it flies, the cable remains connected to the operator.
00:06:12:23 – 00:06:34:19
Yaakov Katz
And that’s how they can actually literally where goggles or even in some cases just use their phone to be able to see what the drone sees and fly it towards the target. They want to then crash it into. And because of the fibre optics, you can’t use those means of scrambling or electronic warfare that you could use with other drones.
00:06:34:22 – 00:06:50:15
Yaakov Katz
Excuse me, other drone capabilities that they might have. That’s what makes it so complicated, so low tech technology that Israel’s tried to use are like fishing nets, right? You know, you have soldiers out in the fields. You put up a fishing net in. At least this way it doesn’t hit the soldiers themselves. It crashes into the fishing net.
00:06:50:15 – 00:07:13:03
Yaakov Katz
And then if it explodes, it explodes from a distance higher away from the soldiers. There are other ideas of, like, barbed wire that you can hang in, in at areas where you’re operating, and it turns around all the time. So, if the fibre optic cable gets caught in it, it will cut the OP. It’ll cut the cable, and then the operator won’t be able to fly it.
00:07:13:04 – 00:07:34:13
Yaakov Katz
There’s now a technology that Israel’s recently bought, a company called Smart Shooter, which has been around for a number of years. I mean, I’ve seen their technology in use, but Israel never purchased it, and it’s meant to be counter drone technology. It uses special scopes, and you can put them on stationary weapons, where you can actually give them to individual soldiers for their personal assault rifles.
00:07:34:13 – 00:08:08:04
Yaakov Katz
And it’s basically with AI and different technology; it helps you target more accurately what’s coming. But again, that’s at the end, right? So that’s if you didn’t stop it with any other means. This is one way to try to defend yourself. There’s another low-tech technology is shotguns right. Giving out shotguns to soldiers. Now why shotguns? Because as you know, Richard, if you have like a, you know, your regular assault rifle shoots out a bullet, or even if you put it on automatic, it’ll shoot in a number of bullets, but they have to hit directly with a shotgun.
00:08:08:04 – 00:08:40:17
Yaakov Katz
You have a dispersal of, you know, of different bullets or pellets, for that matter, and therefore you have more of a chance of hitting the drone that might be coming. It’s a challenge. Right. And I think that Israel ultimately, I hate to say it better the ball on this one because it’s not new. Right. The Ukrainians and the Russians, if we’ve been watching their war for the last four years, we’ve seen an amazing use, particularly by Ukraine, in their use of this kind of FPV.
00:08:40:19 – 00:09:01:19
Yaakov Katz
By the way, these videos are pretty if you’re interested. They’re fascinating to watch of how the Ukrainians are using these folks. And you are literally I mean, you see it from the camera of the drone itself, but then you see Russian soldiers starting to run or to hide, and then the drone comes up to them. And at that point, once it explodes, you no longer see what happens.
00:09:01:19 – 00:09:23:23
Yaakov Katz
But reportedly, there’s been of Russian soldiers who have been killed in this way. Israel knew that this was out there. Israel needed to have assumed that Hezbollah had this capability in speaking to intelligence officials they did know, but they were surprised by the effectiveness of it, how it was used in such an effective way. And resources are always going to be limited.
00:09:23:23 – 00:09:48:00
Yaakov Katz
Attention is always going to be dispersed under a number across different fronts and dealing with different threats. And in this case, we were slow to come to a solution or to understand how severe this was and how this tactical issue has really become a strategic one. The military is doing what it can to come up with solutions, but it’s nothing that’s going to take place overnight.
00:09:48:00 – 00:09:54:23
Yaakov Katz
And unfortunately, this week I think it was already 3 or 4 soldiers who have again been killed by these fees.
00:09:55:00 – 00:10:17:20
Richard Pater
And second, tactically, Jones to ask you about earlier this week, we saw the announcement of Israel retaking the iconic Beaufort Castle, which of course, Israel held since 1982 up to 2000. So, it’s the first time in 26 years it got me thinking, you know, Israel has been effectively at war with Hezbollah since October the 8th, almost over two and a half years.
00:10:17:21 – 00:10:28:09
Richard Pater
Why did it take so long to get to that ten-kilometre mountain ridge, which was kind of now presented to the Israeli public as being such a critical achievement?
00:10:28:10 – 00:10:55:20
Yaakov Katz
Yeah, well, I don’t think it’s such a critical achievement, to be honest. If Israel wanted to take the Beaufort Ridge and there’s that famous Crusader era castle that’s there, and you’re right, the IDF took it back in 1982, in the beginning of the First Lebanon War. And there was a famous I mean, maybe it’s not a world-famous battle, but within Israel, it’s a famous battle, legendary battle led by Sayer Ghailani.
00:10:55:22 – 00:11:24:07
Yaakov Katz
There was the commander of Golani Hornig, who was unfortunately killed in that battle. Back then, it was against PLO, Yasser Arafat, Fatah, to try to push the Palestinian terrorists out of southern Lebanon. They were the ones lobbing rockets over into northern Israel at the time. And because of that before became this really iconic symbol of the first Lebanon War, mostly because of the heroism of that battle at the time.
00:11:24:07 – 00:11:48:00
Yaakov Katz
But then it became the location for an IDF outpost that was held for those 18 years that Israel was inside Lebanon. And it morphed over time. You know, somebody who grew, who was here in the 1990s in the run up. You know, I came here in 93. So, seven years before Israel pulled out of Lebanon, the before was no longer the symbol of heroism and courage.
00:11:48:01 – 00:12:15:06
Yaakov Katz
It turned into the symbol of the quagmire and why Israel is still in Lebanon. And soldiers who are being who are serving in the buffer and tragically, being killed. And ultimately Israel left Lebanon. And, you know, very quick decision by Prime Minister at the time, Ehud Barak. And so, the before is it reminds me more of the mistakes that we made in Lebanon and how we got stuck in Lebanon and didn’t really know how to leave.
00:12:15:06 – 00:12:45:16
Yaakov Katz
And when we left, I mean, we all know what happened. Three we left in May of 2000. In October of 2000, his crossed into Israel and kidnaped a number of soldiers already. Right. And then six years later we had the Second Lebanon War. So, Israel got there right now, because it is it has been deepening it’s its territorial control over parts of southern Lebanon as part of an effort to try to push away his ability to threaten the North, even though they’re still able to fire rockets.
00:12:45:16 – 00:13:14:16
Yaakov Katz
So that controlling that area, if you ask people in the IDF, they tell you. Well, the ridge gives you high ground. It gives you the ability to control areas nearby also to the north and to the south. And it’s able to prevent Hezbollah from being able to fire rockets or launch PVS in those areas. I can understand that maybe tactical importance to some extent, but the way it was being celebrated here in Israel, as if this is some sort of massive accomplishment, it’s far from it, right?
00:13:14:18 – 00:13:36:00
Yaakov Katz
To me, it raises more questions than gives answers, because I can understand again the tactical importance and significance. But this is not the definition of any victory. Right? The, the on the contrary, if we look at where we are right now with Hezbollah, you started with the talk of the cease fire that now has gone into effect.
00:13:36:00 – 00:14:04:21
Yaakov Katz
And definitely the linkage between Iran and Hezbollah. Hezbollah might have might have the upper hand right now. They have definitely survived this war of nearly three years with Israel. Israel has destroyed a lot of infrastructure or has killed a lot of his top operatives, not Nasrallah, the leader, his successor, his successor, successor, other top commanders. It has killed thousands of Hezbollah operatives.
00:14:04:21 – 00:14:26:19
Yaakov Katz
It is destroyed significant infrastructure all throughout southern Lebanon, in those Shia villages, but also to the north and the Becca Valley and in Beirut and the neighbourhood, which is the Hezbollah stronghold, entire and other places. But they’re still here and they’re still able to attack, and there’s still a bit of fire rockets, and they’re still able to effectively use the fees to kill soldiers.
00:14:26:19 – 00:15:19:24
Yaakov Katz
And now they’re getting a deal that they’re being told Iran can basically call the shots of what happens and when. Iran wants the cease fire to include Hezbollah. Well, now it also includes Hezbollah. So, the before is a nice story for us to tell ourselves. But this is not a victory for Israel against Hezbollah at all.
00:15:20:01 – 00:15:41:08
Yaakov Katz
Well, yeah, I mean, it’s a tough one. I just wrote a piece where I asked the question that the title that I gave it was Has Hezbollah won their war with Israel? To some extent, because not only have they survived and not only do they still retain capabilities, but it might also be a shadow, it might be a fraction of what they had.
00:15:41:09 – 00:16:04:07
Yaakov Katz
And, you know, the morning of October 8th when they joined the war against Israel, and they’ve been battered and they’ve been hurt and they’ve been degraded. But they’re still there and they will rebuild. That linkage with Iran is a big win for Hezbollah. But it’s also a big win for Iran. Iran read the cards right and understood that President Donald Trump really, really, desperately wants a deal.
00:16:04:07 – 00:16:34:16
Yaakov Katz
And anything that gets in the way, including Israel’s, need to be able to defend itself. I mean, this, this, this fight against Hezbollah is not for no reason. They are raining down rockets, northern Israel, they remained up until this recent incursion that began in the aftermath of the American Israeli war against Iran. So, on February 28th, when that war began, Hezbollah started its attacks in in solidarity with Iran or in defence of Iran.
00:16:34:16 – 00:17:02:01
Yaakov Katz
And then Israel increased and deepened its incursion and offensive against his belonged to Lebanon. But still the rockets continue. So, his role is pushing farther north, and the rocket still continues to, Israel said this week. We’re planning to potentially start to target Beirut’s. And then when Iran said, well, if this happens and if there’s no cease fire in Syria, in Lebanon, then there’s not going to be an extension of the cease fire with the United States.
00:17:02:01 – 00:17:23:22
Yaakov Katz
And you saw, of course, that missile attack against Kuwait International Airport the other day. So, President Trump calls up and has these conversations with Prime Minister Netanyahu, and they’ve been reported to have been very tense with different curse words that were used. And President Trump saying to Netanyahu, you owe me, and you have to listen to me, because if it wasn’t for me, you would be in prison.
00:17:23:23 – 00:17:47:00
Yaakov Katz
A hint to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s corruption trial, whatever the case may be, the Iranians got a big win here because they got Trump to call up Israel and say, stop. And Israel has effectively stopped, and now they will have the cease fire that will give them the ability to one day rebuild, rearm, resupply. And where will that rearmament come from?
00:17:47:00 – 00:18:06:10
Yaakov Katz
Well, if Iran now makes a deal with the Americans and we could talk about what that deal might include, nuclear or not, whatever it is, they’re going to get billions and billions of dollars, and that money is going to go towards Iranian reconstruction of their capabilities, but also to their proxies. And their number one proxy is, of course, Hezbollah.
00:18:06:11 – 00:18:28:08
Yaakov Katz
I mean, I think also, you know, there’s a whole conversation that’s taking place in the world, right? What’s Israel’s grand strategy? And what does he want with Lebanon? How does it think it’s going to defeat Hezbollah? Hizbollah is part of Lebanese society. It’s in parliament. It’s, you know, been in the government. It’s more than just a terrorist or guerrilla organization.
00:18:28:08 – 00:18:54:23
Yaakov Katz
And unless there’s plans to occupy the entire country of Lebanon, which, by the way, there are some Lebanese who want that to happen, interestingly enough, mostly the Christians or the Sunnis, and obviously not the Shiites themselves. But Israel doesn’t want to have to do that, of course. So how are we going to eliminate a terrorist group? I mean, if we look at Gaza, where Israel at one point was in control of all of the Gaza Strip, it didn’t succeed to do that to Hamas, which is a smaller, weaker terrorist organization.
00:18:54:23 – 00:19:21:20
Yaakov Katz
So why would it be able to succeed with Hezbollah? And I think that Lebanon is very different than Gaza, for the simple reason that there is a government in Lebanon. Right? That’s the government that Israel is actually having negotiations with. You referenced the talks yesterday at the State Department of Washington. You feel lighter. And the Lebanese ambassador to Washington, together with State Department officials, Marco Rubio, has participated in the past and some of those rounds of negotiations.
00:19:21:20 – 00:19:47:23
Yaakov Katz
There is a government in Lebanon, but no one, and this is what I find to be just I mean, a missed opportunity. No one is saying to the Lebanese government, go take care of this. It’s as if they’re getting a pass. So, you know, we’re dealing with there’s three players or four players now in the room Iran, Hezbollah, the Lebanese government, and of course the state of Israel and America trying to figure something out in between of all of this.
00:19:47:23 – 00:20:07:20
Yaakov Katz
But unless the Lebanese government, by extension, the Lebanese people want to stop Hezbollah, it’s not going to be possible to stop them. And there’s all these different ideas, you know, based on now the new what’s been reported about the cease fire. This is an idea that I’ve heard for years now in Israel of ultimately, you go into different areas of Lebanon.
00:20:07:21 – 00:20:30:02
Yaakov Katz
Let’s say you take, for example, I don’t know, the Becca Valley, right? You go to the Becca Valley, you clear that out of Hezbollah, you collect the arms, you destroy the infrastructure. On paper, it sounds like a great idea. Who’s actually going to do it, though, right? Is it the LAF? The Lebanese Armed Forces has proven itself to be completely incapable of doing anything along those lines.
00:20:30:03 – 00:20:47:20
Yaakov Katz
Now, suddenly, are they going? Are they willing to? Now, when you talk to Lebanese, here’s the problem. They don’t want to fight with one another. They’re still scarred from the civil war that they had a few decades ago, 30, 40 years ago. So, they don’t, you know, they don’t want to have to do it themselves. But Israel, they don’t want Israel to do it.
00:20:47:20 – 00:21:11:03
Yaakov Katz
And Israel does want to have to find itself there. And the Americans and French aren’t coming and putting boots on the ground to go up against his blast. So, I don’t fully see yet how this practically works. Which leads me to, unfortunately, conclude for the time being that Hezbollah did a very good job. And we have we were far from hearing the end of this conflict.
00:21:11:09 – 00:21:37:21
Richard Pater
Just I mean, as a question of doctrine, one of the one of the fundamental principles here is about the issue of establishing deterrence. And ironically, here Israel established that deterrence after the November 24th ceasefire. Again, credit probably needs to go to the Biden administration for establishing that that Israel was able to strike Hezbollah almost on a daily basis for a year and a half without a single rocket in response.
00:21:37:21 – 00:21:48:14
Richard Pater
And suddenly, after this latest 40-day war, the concept of deterrence seems to have been shattered. How do you explain that turnaround?
00:21:48:14 – 00:22:19:13
Yaakov Katz
So, I don’t know that it’s I don’t know that it’s the concept of deterrence, but I because, you know, in the 2006 Second Lebanon War, they were also hurt. And we had about, you know, 14 years almost of quiet. So, things remained, if not almost 20 years of quiet. And things remain that way because Hizbollah wanted to rebuild it wanted that quiet for the purposes of resupply and building up its capabilities.
00:22:19:13 – 00:22:38:11
Yaakov Katz
But it also remembered what happened to it in the summer of 2006, I think what changed now, it could be that we still have deterrence. Deterrence also is a very fluid term. It’s very difficult to it’s not something you can measure, take to the bank, because deterrence is only as good for as long as that adversary is deterred and you just don’t know.
00:22:38:12 – 00:23:18:21
Yaakov Katz
Now, you keep on trying to do things and take action and steps to maintain your deterrence, which is to prevent your enemy from thinking that they should attack. And that could be a political process. It could be military action, it could be economical incentives, whatever it might be, but you continuously try to maintain it. I think what’s changed, Richard, is if we go back to when the cease fire went into effect, when Hezbollah was hurting and had its leadership decimated and the beeper attack and the walkie talkie attack and everything that Israel had done, that when it went into effect in November of 24, there was definitely deterrence, and there was a strong ceasefire
00:23:18:22 – 00:23:49:01
Yaakov Katz
and Israel had operational freedom. What has changed now is in the wake of the attack on Iran and in the desire for a deal with Iran, the linkage now has basically undermined the deterrence that had been created. And now Israel’s operational freedom has been taken away, and Israel is no longer the one calling the shots. If Israel wants to attack now in Lebanon, it needs to first get permission from the United States of America.
00:23:49:02 – 00:24:08:10
Yaakov Katz
That’s a different reality that we did not have in the past. And the reason that this is changed is because of the war with Iran. So, if you think about it, you know, think about it for a moment from Prime Minister Netanyahu’s perspective, which I think is an interesting way to look at it, this was the war that he had wanted forever, right?
00:24:08:11 – 00:24:45:10
Yaakov Katz
For 30 years since he was prime minister and 30 years, I think, just a week ago, that he took office in the summer of in the spring of 1996, in his first term in office. He has always been the guy who’s been carrying the flag of we need to stop Iran. He finally got the war that he had dreamed of together with the United States, in a way that none of us thought was possible, that American Israeli planes would be flying together, would be refuelling one another, would be planning operations together, would be gathering intelligence and dividing up targets.
00:24:45:11 – 00:25:06:12
Yaakov Katz
ET cetera. But we look at that war, and it hasn’t ended in the way that Israel wanted. We look now at the war, at the battle with Hezbollah. That’s not ending in the way that Israel wanted, or definitely not the way that Netanyahu wanted. It’s almost and it’s like a historical injustice for Netanyahu and what he had hoped to achieve.
00:25:06:14 – 00:25:28:10
Richard Pater
Let me just ask you on a different tack. Just in a minute. Then we’ll open it up to questions. Just your experience of working with Naftali Bennett, how you assess kind of his, the union that he made to deal with Lapid that hasn’t really reflected any spike in the polls and that crowded centre space with Gadi Isaac competing.
00:25:28:12 – 00:25:43:01
Richard Pater
How do your kind of at this initial stage, even the campaign, how do you see them lining up? Will they eventually unite? Who do you think is the most appropriate leader to challenge Netanyahu’s supremacist?
00:25:43:02 – 00:26:09:04
Yaakov Katz
Well, first of all, it’s hard to challenge Netanyahu’s supremacy. And if we look at the opposition, the anti-Netanyahu opposition, let’s say so it’s basically made up of Bennett, Lapid, Gadi Eisenstadt, the former chief of staff of Lieberman, the, you know, the leader of the Russian immigrant party, to some extent on the right, and Golan, who leads the Democrats on the left.
00:26:09:04 – 00:26:32:18
Yaakov Katz
So, it’s a group of that doesn’t really have ideological bonds that connect it. Because the Golan, for example, a former deputy chief of staff but very left wing, and in these rally terms of it, let’s say he would believe in a two-state solution with the Palestinians, Naftali Bennett. And if you’re Lieberman, who are part of that same block, but they’re on the right, they’re completely opposed to any establishment of a Palestinian state.
00:26:32:18 – 00:26:57:20
Yaakov Katz
If I want to use that as, as, as the as something to look at, you know, in Israel, right, left is not about economics. It’s not about, you know, the financial markets, but it’s going to be about mainly those types of issues. So, but if we put that aside, where they all are right now is in the in their internal battle is who is going to lead the camp.
00:26:57:22 – 00:27:22:22
Yaakov Katz
So, what Bennett tried to do is and I and I can understand it, I think he made a mistake, at least so far. It’s not working out the way he thought it would. He wanted to be the unequivocal the unchallenged leader of the of the bloc and to be able to get there because he was polling at 15, 20 seats, Lapid was falling in the polls.
00:27:22:22 – 00:27:43:23
Yaakov Katz
He figured if I merge with Lapid, I make it and clear that no one that I am the leader of the block, I am the contender for prime minister. And then it becomes me against Bibi. And that’s kind of how he wanted to tell that story and bring that to the voters that you have. You have two people who are running as prime minister.
00:27:43:23 – 00:28:10:21
Yaakov Katz
It’s not about parties, it’s about people. And you have to vote for the person. And that’s how he thought he could pull the voters away from Netanyahu. But what had happened is that instead of that working out, Gadi Eisenhardt, the former chief of staff who tragically lost his son a few months into the war back in 2023 and also lost two nephews in the war, really paid a tragic personal price.
00:28:10:22 – 00:28:30:13
Yaakov Katz
He’s now rising, soaring in the polls to some extent, and he said to Bennett and Lapid, why should I join you? Now let’s wait to see what happens. And in the meantime, he in the last poll, he was up 17 seats. And Ben and Pete together are down to 22 seats. So, there’s only a five-seat difference. Now, just so people understand Bennett’s in.
00:28:30:13 – 00:28:54:10
Yaakov Katz
Lapid are not one party. They are running as one list. But effectively it’s two parties that make up the list. So, the day after the election, let’s say this is how the vote ends. They’re 22 or 23. Isaac Court is 16 or 17. The day after the election, Bennett and Lapid split. And then let’s say they’re 23. Let’s give them 23.
00:28:54:11 – 00:29:14:14
Yaakov Katz
Bennett Bennett’s 13, Lapid is ten. Isaac is 16. 17. So, when they sit down and say, okay, who should be the prime minister, I think I will say, wait a minute, I’m the biggest party, right? You are not one party. Your two parties that just merged for the purpose of the election. But I’m actually the leader of the biggest party, and it’s going to be a hard argument to push back against.
00:29:14:14 – 00:29:31:24
Yaakov Katz
Especially when it was enough to tell you, Bennett, who in the summer, who in 2021, in the summer of 21 became the prime minister with only he wouldn’t seven seats, but he lost one of the Knesset members right away. He became prime minister with six seats. So, what’s he going to say to Eisenhower? No, I’m still the Prime minister.
00:29:32:00 – 00:29:51:05
Yaakov Katz
It’s not going to work. So, Bennett and Peter, trying very hard for their adventure to or, you know, their idea to work. They’re trying to get ice and cut to join them. So far, Eisenhower is doing the smart thing politically, which is saying I’m not going to join them. Now, you could ask me, though. Okay, why did Bennett do it now?
00:29:51:05 – 00:30:10:05
Yaakov Katz
Why do you pull the trigger so early? Because I am lot of people thought it was premature. So, I’ll just say two things on that. Number one is I do like the idea of the merger. I would rather see bigger parties than a bunch of different factions all running for the same thing, and everybody’s fighting for the same votes within the same camp.
00:30:10:07 – 00:30:29:00
Yaakov Katz
That’s a good thing. But the reason he did it, I think, was he wanted to try to establish himself as number one. He wanted he thought that the momentum would bring guys and cut in. There’s another financial aspect here, which is that you’re PDA, which, as you know, I think what, 19.
00:30:29:02 – 00:30:29:08
Richard Pater
20.
00:30:29:09 – 00:30:54:02
Yaakov Katz
Four, even 24 members. Thank you. Each Knesset member is worth almost 2 million shekels. So, when you do a campaign, how do you. It’s not we’re not like in the United States that you raise money from superPACs, the Knesset funds, the campaign of those parties, and therefore that money that Lapid brings with him, which is a lot of a 48 million shekel, that’s the money that that Bennett really needed for his campaign.
00:30:54:02 – 00:31:13:05
Yaakov Katz
So, there was a reason for him to do it. Lapid also had a reason because he was falling in the polls. He was down to single digits. Now, if he was going to be five on his own, he’ll at least be ten now with Bennett. But ultimately, it’s still a standoff. And there’s no clear winner yet in any of the polls that we’re saying.
00:31:13:07 – 00:31:13:22
Yaakov Katz
Indeed.
00:31:13:23 – 00:31:15:19
Richard Pater
Ya’akov, thank you so much for that.