What’s happened: At least four people have been killed in a terror shooting at Ramot Junction in northern Jerusalem on Monday morning. 

• According to emergency responders a further seven people are seriously wounded, with others in moderate condition. 
• Preliminary reports suggest two gunmen boarded a bus and opened fire on passengers at close range. The two attackers were subsequently killed.
• Other reports suggest that a manhunt is underway for a third terrorist who escaped. 
• This is the first shooting attack in Jerusalem in almost two years. In November 2023 gunmen opened fire at a bus stop close to the entrance of the city. Four people died in the attack – three by the terrorists and a fourth who was mistakenly killed by IDF soldiers during the incident.

What’s happened: On Sunday, Prime Minister Netanyahu was partially successful in postponing for this week his cross-examination in his criminal trial.

• The Jerusalem District Court agreed to partially accept Netanyahu’s motion after hearing evidence from Mossad Director Barnea, Head of IDF Intelligence Maj. Gen. Binder, and National Security Council Director Hanegbi. Netanyahu had sought a two-week postponement.     
• At the end of last week, the prime minister filed two motions asking to cancel his court appearances for the coming two weeks, on the grounds of “regional developments”. Both motions were rejected by the court.
• Attention on his trial has increased following President Trumps two social media post. Over the weekend Trump wrote, “It is terrible what they are doing in Israel to Bibi Netanyahu. He is a War Hero, and a Prime Minister who did a fabulous job working with the United States to bring Great Success in getting rid of the dangerous Nuclear threat in Iran. How can Israel force its leader to sit in a Courtroom all day long, over NOTHING. It is a POLITICAL WITCH HUNT, very similar to the Witch Hunt that I was forced to endure. This travesty of ‘Justice’ will interfere with both Iran and Hamas negotiations. In other words, it is INSANITY doing what the out-of-control prosecutors are doing to Bibi Netanyahu. The United States of America spends Billions of Dollars a year, far more than on any other Nation, protecting and supporting Israel. We are not going to stand for this.”

What’s happened: A preliminary vote was held early this morning on a bill to dissolve the Knesset which opposition parties had introduced earlier in the week. It was defeated 61-53 when, at the last minute, ultra-Orthodox parties that had threatened to support it mostly backed down and voted with the Government. Two ultra-orthodox MKs voted in favour of the motion, including one minister who is expected to resign. The governing coalition of right-wing parties, religious nationalists, and the ultra-orthodox remains deeply divided on the issue of draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men.

• The fight over draft exemptions continues to roil the governing coalition. A Supreme Court ruling last year invalidated the blanket exemptions that had been in place for decades, leading the IDF to begin issuing call-up orders for ultra-Orthodox men.
• In response the coalition has sought to pass laws that would ease or even cancel most of the legal sanctions that might be employed against ultra-Orthodox men who disobey the call-up, including childcare and housing subsidies. But Likud MK Yuli Edelstein, who chairs the powerful Foreign and Defence Affairs Committee in the Knesset, has blocked most of these initiatives, predicating the coalition crisis. Last night, just before the vote, Edelstein leaders of two ultra-Orthodox parties reached a minimal set of “understandings” on softening some of the legal sanctions.
• The threat of ultra-Orthodox parties to bring the government down could extract significant concessions from Prime Minister Netanyahu and his coalition partners, most of whom represent communities who serve in the armed forces and greatly resent the longstanding exemptions. 
• At the same time, the ultra-Orthodox parties have a great deal to lose by going to early elections. While polls project that they will hold a similar number of seats in a new election to what they have now, the rest of the right-wing bloc is expected to go down to defeat, and the ultra-Orthodox will almost certainly find themselves in opposition, facing a much stiffer draft law.
• The failed bill to dissolve Parliament means it will not be possible to table the motion again for at least six months (except through a cumbersome procedure involving collecting signatures of the majority of MKs). Writing in Ynet, Moran Azoulay speculates that opposition leader Yair Lapid still stands to gain from the defeat in the motion to dissolve the house as it will for six months remove the ultra-Orthodox parties major bargaining advantage in extracting concessions on the draft law, and thus weaken their ability to entrench in law the de facto exemptions they presently enjoy.
• Following the vote, Lapid attacked the coalition. “Once again,” he said, speaking in the Knesset, “you’ve spat in the faces of our troops. Once again, you’ve spat in the face of the IDF. You, who call yourselves the fully right-wing government, have sold out our troops. You’ve sold out the IDF, you’ve sold out the fundamental principle of shared service.”

What’s happened: Head of Shin Bet Security Service Ronen Bar announced that he would step down on June 15^th. 

• Speaking at a memorial service for fallen fighters from the service on Monday night Bar said, “After years on multiple fronts, the sky fell on one night on the southern front. The entire system collapsed. The GSS also failed to provide a warning. As the person who stands at the head of the organisation, I took responsibility, and now, on this special evening that symbolises remembrance, heroism and sacrifice, I have chosen to announce that I will follow through on my decision to end my tenure as director of the General Security Service.”
• Bar added, “My love for the homeland and my loyalty to the country are the basis over every decision I have made in my professional life. That remains true tonight.”
• “To the families of the murdered and the fallen, it is important for you to know that the Shin Bet did not make light of the threat. Despite attempts to manufacture a different reality, the Shin Bet was never complacent; to the contrary: there was understanding of the Hamas threat, alongside constant initiative and a drive to engage. Nevertheless, we failed…. must bow our heads in humility before the murdered, the dead, the wounded, the kidnapped and the families, and act accordingly. Everyone.”
• Bar once more called for a state commission of inquiry to be formed. “The truth and the corrections that must be made can be done only within the framework of a state commission of inquiry. You deserve the truth. The fallen deserve it. Taking responsibility in practice is an inseparable part of setting a personal example and the legacy of our leaders, and we have no legitimacy to lead without it.”
• Bar also stressed the importance to Israel’s security and democracy that the Shin Bet be allowed to operate independently. He said he hoped that after having presented the High Court of Justice with all the evidence, the court would hand down a ruling that ensures that the Shin Bet is able to continue to function independently.

Context: Bar’s resignation comes more than a year and a half after the greatest failure in the history of the Shin Bet under his leadership. 

• Just like other senior military commanders within the army who have all since resigned, Bar wanted to leave on his own terms, having acknowledged his organisations failure in a full internal inquiry over a month ago. 
• With his retirement, Bar will end 35 years of service. The end of his tenure has been marked by controversy after he was fired last month by a unanimous cabinet vote but he chose to remain in office pending the High Court of Justice ruling on the matter. 
• It is hoped that his resignation ends the bitter legal dispute between himself and Prime Minister Netanyahu.         
• In response to Bar’s submission to the court, on Sunday Netanyahu submitted his own affidavit, in which he accused Bar of lying in his own submission and attempting to avoid responsibility for the failures which lead to the 7^th October attacks.
• In the affidavit, Netanyahu referred to “Bar’s blindness” as the “greatest intelligence failure in the history of the State of Israel.”
• He also rejected claims made by Bar that he had attempted to direct Shin Bet to collect intelligence on anti-government protest leaders. 
• Netanyahu also referenced numerous failed assassination attempts (against himself) which he suggested caused him to seek to give testimony in his ongoing criminal court cases from a “safe place” rather than avoid doing so altogether.
• In response, Bar continued to allege that the Prime Minister attempted to pressure him into acting unlawfully, while criticising his failure to take responsibility for authorising Qatari cash to enter Gaza in the years prior to October 7^th. Bar added, “Senior security officials have taken responsibility for the intelligence failure [on October 7^th]. But the prime minister never took responsibility for the quiet policy of funding Hamas, which was dictated directly by the Prime Minister”.
• With Bar’s impending departure, it draws into sharper focus the political leadership that stand alone, without having investigated itself, or agreed to form an independent commission of inquiry, and not yet called for an early election. 
• All this in the shadow of the remaining 59 hostages, 24 of whom are thought to be still alive and are being held in horrific conditions, now for 571 days. Despite reports of a breakthrough in talks, Army Radio quoted an Israel political official saying, “the reports in the foreign media are inaccurate. Israel has been working continuously and incessantly with the Americans and the mediators with the goal of advancing a deal to release our hostages but, for the time being, no agreement has been reached.”    
• Bar’s resignation at this time is being viewed as positive move for Israel’s security, as extreme tension between the government and its primary intelligence agency has hampered the ability to hold substantive discussions on security issues. 

Looking ahead: His decision to step down may render the High Court of Justice ruling moot, but efforts might still be made to reach a compromise on an agreed-upon date for his resignation earlier than the one he announced.

• Now, the central question is who will replace him, and whether they will find a consensus candidate who meets the approval of the prime minister and the security establishment, as was the case with the appointment of Eyal Zamir as IDF chief of staff.
• It remains unclear if Bar will have a role in choosing his successor, and whether despite their bitter disagreements he and the prime minister can cooperate for the last few weeks of his tenure.
• Memorial Day ceremonies will begin this afternoon at 4:00 pm Israel time. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Knesset Speaker MK Amir Ohana will attend a ceremony in Jerusalem. At 8:00 pm, the state ceremony will be held at the Western Wall, with President Herzog, Defence Minister Katz and IDF Chief of Staff Zamir in attendance.

What’s happened: Ronen Bar, the director of the Shin Bet, has filed two sworn affidavits with the Israeli Supreme Court that contain a number of dramatic accusations against the Prime Minister. 

• The two documents include an eight-page affidavit that has been made public, as well as a 31-page document including classified documents. The latter document has not been shared with the public, but has been shared with the Prime Minister.
• Among the claims in the affidavit:
  • The supposed “loss of trust” that was the Prime Minister’s reason for demanding Bar’s dismissal did not exist during the period before the outbreak of war or even for the entire first year of the war, but suddenly emerged as soon as Bar ordered the investigation of ties between leading figures in the Prime Minister’s Bureau and Qatar.
  • The Prime Minister, or those close to him, asked Bar to sign a statement that the Prime Minister could not testify in his trial for security reasons; he refused.
  • The Prime Minister requested that the Shin Bet conduct surveillance of leaders of the movement protesting the Government’s judicial reforms in 2023 pursuant to the Shin Bet’s legal authority to monitor “subversion.” Bar argued that the protest movement did not meet the legal standard for subversion and refused.
  • The Prime Minister sought assurances from Bar that in the event of a constitutional crisis, the Shin Bet would obey the Government and not a ruling from the Supreme Court. 
• Also in the affidavit, Bar dissects what he holds to be false accusations against him regarding warnings given to the Prime Minister before the October 7 massacre, specifically relating to accusations regarding his actions during the night before the attack.
• He also notes that he has been among the many voices inside the security establishment demanding a state commission of inquiry into the failures of October 7, but the Prime Minister and his associates have blocked this at every turn.
• Netanyahu called the affidavit “a false statement” and his office disputed in particular the timeline of events Bar claimed regarding the night before the October 7 invasion. 
• Elsewhere, associates of the Prime Minister sought to clarify his concerns about the security threats he might face in testifying, rejecting the suggestion of Bar’s affidavit that Netanyahu was seeking to use the Shin Bet to attain a blanket exemption from appearing at his own trial.

Context: Concurrently, the security cabinet met last night to discuss the operation in Gaza and the hostage negotiations. For now, no decision has been made on expanding the operation while negotiations are still ongoing.

• There are some in the cabinet calling for a broader, more comprehensive military operation, whilst the Prime Minister and Defence Minister currently prefer to maintain the current deployment, and give the diplomatic track some more time.  
• The cabinet also discussed the issue of humanitarian aid, with IDF Chief of Staff Zamir, maintaining his predecessor’s approach that it would not be the IDF’s role to distribute aid.  Whilst the professional echelon continues to closely monitor supplies, no decision was made to renew the flow of aid into Gaza. 
• With Bar in attendance, tensions between ministers and the Shin Bet Director whom the ministers unanimously voted to fire spilled out in the open repeatedly during the meeting, especially in comments by Finance Minister Smotrich. Smotrich also apparently left the room whenever it was Bar’s turn to speak.
• The Court has given Netanyahu the option of submitting a counter-affidavit by this Thursday. It is not yet clear if the Prime Minister will avail himself of this opportunity, which he could use to refute Bar’s charges but which could prove legally and politically problematic for him. If there are two affidavits with conflicting claims, the Court will have to hold a hearing and make public and binding determinations about the truth of each of the claims.  
• The Court had originally asked Bar for his affidavit by Sunday. Bar requested an extension and was granted until noon Monday. According to various media reports, there were various efforts made by associates of the Prime Minister to reach a compromise with Bar about his departure that would have involved Bar ultimately not filing an affidavit at all.
• The basic thrust of these compromise efforts, according to reports, was that Bar would have some say in the appointment of his successor. As Bar himself was planning on taking responsibility for the Shin Bet’s failures on October 7 and resigning, this compromise was seen as answering his principal publicly stated concern: not saving his own job, but rather ensuring that his successor was a professional and not someone who would just do the bidding of the Prime Minister.
• Until just before noon on Monday, it was still unclear whether a compromise had been reached or whether Bar would ultimately file his affidavit. The affidavit, and the grave accusations made against the Prime Minister in it, make it very unlikely that Bar will have a say in choosing the man or woman who will take over the Shin Bet when he does leave.
• An affidavit is effectively sworn testimony. If any of it is untrue, the person submitting it is liable to perjury charges, quite unlike the case with say a television interview or an anonymous leak.
• Netanyahu’s supporters have been eager to point out that a substantial portion of the blame for October 7 lies with Bar and therefore it is perfectly reasonable for the government to decide to end his tenure early.

Looking Ahead: Netanyahu has until tomorrow to submit his own affidavit to the Court, though it is possible that some compromise on a date for Bar’s departure will be reached beforehand. 

• The Court has barred the Government from appointing a new Shin Bet Director while it hears the case.
• Thus far, the Government has adhered to the Court’s interim ruling. If the Court ultimately rules against the Government, there will be tremendous pressure on the Government by some ministers to ignore it.