What’s happened: Tuesday saw a major call-up of reserve soldiers in preparation for Israel’s expected offensive into Gaza City. 

• Tens of thousands reported for duty as they are expected to relieve regular soldiers in the West Bank and along the northern border, who will prepare to enter Gaza in the coming weeks. 
• Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said about the upcoming operation, “Now we are facing the decisive stage.” Directing his comments to reservists, he said, “I know that you have paid a heavy price – at work, with studies and at home. We are fighting a stubborn and just war without peer. We do not forget for a moment what they did to us on October 7, the beheadings, the women who were raped, the babies who were burned and the hostages who were taken into the tunnels in Gaza. We are working to bring them all back.”
• Speaking to reservists on emergency call-up orders, IDF Chief of Staff Zamir told them, “We are going to increase and enhance the strikes of our operation, and that is why we called you. The IDF does not offer anything less than decisive victory. We will not stop the war until we defeat this enemy.”
• As call-ups increase, so too has opposition to the upcoming offensive. Protesters demanding a deal for the release of hostages converged on Jerusalem this morning, where some set fire to rubbish bins and at least one car and others mounted the rooftop of Israel’s National Library.
• The IDF announced yesterday that it had successfully eliminated Hazem Awni Naeem in a joint operation with the Shin Bet on August 28. Naeem was a senior Hamas terrorist who had, among other acts, held in captivity the three female Israeli hostages Emily Damari, Romi Gonen, and Naama Levy.
• A Houthi missile launch triggered sirens all over central Israel this morning. The missile was successfully intercepted by Israeli missile defence. Last Thursday, an Israeli operation in Sanaa eliminated several senior Houthi officials including the Houthi Prime Minister Ahmed al-Rahawi.
• Also on Tuesday, Israel successfully launched a new satellite into space, Ofek 19. President Herzog, who attended the launch, hailed it as a significant Israeli technological accomplishment. “We are not only a Start-Up Nation, we are a Space Nation.” Israel’s space program effectively began with the launch of Ofek 1 in 1988. The new satellite, Ofek 19, will orbit the earth once every 90 minutes and is expected to be fully operational, providing high-resolution intelligence to the Israeli security services in both day and night, by sometime next week.

Context: With preparation for the ground offensive into Gaza City underway, the operation is expected to begin in mid-September. The operation will involve at least four divisions.

• In the initial stage, the IDF hopes to prompt civilians to move out of Gaza City into the Al-Mawasi region on the southern beach area of the Strip, where temporary accommodation is to be provided. There are an estimated 800,000 people in the city at present.
• The pace of operation will depend on the rate at which the civilian population vacates the area. 
• According to reports in the Arab media, there is concern that Hamas might move living hostages and disperse them across Gaza City to serve as human shields for Hamas strongholds. 
• Israel Hayom reports that the operational plan which was approved is different from the original one, which Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir had warned was a “strategic trap.” The current plan was formulated by Southern Command and is reportedly much more sensitive to the challenges facing the IDF as it enters a densely populated area. According to the report, “the IDF believes Gaza City to be strewn with IEDs and underground networks that will pose a major threat to the troops. The top IDF brass said the mission could be accomplished, but in a bid to protect the troops the operation is planned to be slow and accompanied by intensive firepower.”
• The latest estimates of the cost of the Gaza operation at around 25 billion shekels (about £5.5 billion). It is not clear if cuts will be made across government or if the deficit will be extended.   
• The long time-scale for the launch of the operation leaves open the possibility of a ceasefire and hostage deal that might avert it. Israel’s position on a hostage deal remains ambiguous, with leading figures close to the Prime Minister insisting on a comprehensive deal that would release all hostages, while Minister for Strategic Affairs Dermer reportedly told mediators that Israel has not entirely ruled out a partial deal. A partial deal would reportedly include a time-limited ceasefire and the release of ten out of the twenty hostages believed to still be alive.
• Amid military preparations the government continues to clash with the judiciary. A unanimous decision by the Supreme Court ordered the government to respond by September 14 whether it will convene the Appointments Committee in order to carry out its decision to dismiss the Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara. The decision does not actually force the government to do so, though it still leaves that possibility open after September 14. In the meantime, Baharav-Miara remains in her post, though the Government only invites her to meetings where the presence of the Attorney General is a legal requirement.

Looking ahead: The French President Emmanuel Macron will host a high-level international conference in New York together with the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to advance the cause of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Macron called on the Trump administration to reverse its decision denying visas to senior officials from the Palestinian Authority, including the PA President Mahmoud Abbas. The conference was originally scheduled for June but was be postponed because of the Twelve Day War with Iran.

Inside Gaza: Two more bodies of hostages have been retrieved by Israeli security forces in Gaza.      

• Ilan Weiss, was killed on October 7th  while trying to defend his community, Kibbutz Beeri. His body was taken into Gaza. Separately, his wife, Shiri, and one of his daughters, Noga, were also taken hostage that morning. They were freed in November 2023.
• Idan Shtivi, a resident of Ein Hayam was 28 at the time of his death. He was murdered while  trying to rescue people from the Nova music festival, and his body was taken by Hamas.
• This now leaves 48 hostages, of whom 20 are believed to be alive and held by Hamas in horrific conditions for 696 days now. So far, 148 hostages have been brought back alive, along with the bodies of 59 others.
• Also on Friday, Master Sergeant Ariel Lubliner, a 34-year-old reservist from Kiryat Bialik, was killed in action in the southern Gaza Strip. Master Sergeant Lubliner was killed by friendly fire.
• He is the 900th soldier to have been killed so far in the war and the 75th to have been killed by friendly fire in an operational accident. A preliminary inquiry found that an IDF soldier in an outpost in the Khan Yunis area accidentally discharged a bullet. The bullet struck Lubliner, who was part of a logistical convoy and was roughly 200 meters away from the soldier who misfired.
• Palestinian sources (but not yet Hamas) have confirmed that Abu Obaida, Hamas’s military wing spokesman, was eliminated in an IDF attack in Gaza City. The Israeli Air Force bombed two floors of a residential building in Gaza City’s western Rimal neighbourhood. The IDF Spokesperson’s Office statement noted, “Prior to the strike, numerous steps were taken to mitigate the risk of harming civilians, including the use of precise munitions, aerial surveillance, and additional intelligence.” According to reports out of Gaza, ten people were killed in the strike.
• The IDF considered Obaida a key figure in Hamas not only because of his symbolic status and his high media profile, but also due to his close ties with senior Hamas officials. Chief of Staff Zamir commented, “In the Gaza Strip we attacked one of Hamas’s senior officials, Abu Obaida, after most of Hamas’s leadership was killed, and more is yet to come. Most of what remains of Hamas’s regime resides overseas, and we’ll get to them too.”

Context: The security cabinet convened on Sunday night and were presented with the latest plans to conquer Gaza City.

• The security cabinet did not discuss a hostage deal.  However, it is understood that negotiations have remained ongoing in an effort to find a formula that might lead to the hostages’ release, and those talks are likely to continue amid the new military operation to conquer Gaza City.
• The assassination of Hamas’s military wing spokesperson boosted hopes that Hamas might ultimately agree to be more flexible.
• For as long as President Trump gives Israel the green light to conquer Gaza City, preparations and planning are set to continue.
• In a bitter ironic twist, Hamas currently appears to favour a temporary deal, whist Israel now insists on arrangement to release all the remaining hostages in one go. This is a reversal of previous positions of both sides.  
• It is possible that Netanyahu and Trump are hoping Hamas will blink first and agree to make further concessions in the negotiations. If that doesn’t happen, Israel will be forced to prove that it is able to deliver on the promise it made to Washington to execute a short and effective military operation.
• There remain divisions within the security cabinet with IDF Chief of Staff Zamir and other security officials still in favour of reaching a partial deal that could see ten living hostages released.    
• Nevertheless, as the government has mandated preparations for the next operation continue. The first stage of the operation will be the evacuation of the civilian population to the southern Gaza Strip. As part of this effort civilian infrastructure is being prepared including tents and temporary housing, additional medical facilities and more food distribution centres.
• On the other side, Hamas has issued warnings in an attempt to deter the public from moving to the south, so that the public might continue to serve as a human shield for Hamas. So far it is estimated about 10,000 Palestinians have moved south in the last few days.
• Sunday was the first anniversary of the discovery of the six dead hostages—Carmel Gat, Eden Yerushalmi, Hersh Goldberg-Polin, Almog Sarusi, Alex Lubanov and Ori Danino—who were murdered by their captors after IDF special forces drew near the tunnel in the southern Gaza Strip where they were being held.
• Beyond Gaza, it appears that IDF successfully struck the Houthi leadership in Yemen. The latest assessment is that almost the entire Houthi political leadership was eliminated in the strike including their Prime Minister Ahmed Ghaleb al-Rahwi and several other ministers. Israel believes that the director of their politburo, the director of the prime minister’s bureau, the cabinet secretary, the justice minister, the economy and trade minister, the foreign minister, the agriculture minister and the information minister were also killed.
• Assessments from Israeli intelligence suggest the attack severely damaged the Houthi’s hold on power and deepened the sense among its leaders that they are being hunted. This is also a message to the external leadership of Hamas.

Looking ahead: On Tuesday the large-scale mobilisation of thousands of IDF reservists is due to begin. September 2 was chosen by IDF Chief of Staff Zamir in order to make it easier for reservist parents to first help their children begin the school year.

• The reservists will study the lessons from previous operation, whilst others will replace standing army units in the West Bank and northern Israel.
• Israel is preparing for the latest international flotilla heading for Gaza. Around twenty boats set sail from Barcelona, Sicily, Greece and Tunisia, with more than 200 participants from 44 countries. Participants include several famous individuals from around the world: climate activist Greta Thunberg, the actors Susan Sarandon and Liam Cunningham, and the former mayor of Barcelona Ada Cola.

What’s happening: The Hamas delegation led by Khalil al-Hayya remains in Cairo for ongoing talks over a potential new hostage deal and ceasefire.      

• The talks are being led by the Director of the Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate Hassan Rashad. He has been in contact with Israeli officials and has kept them apprised of the developments, although Israel has not at this point formally joined the negotiations. 
• According to Arab media reports the latest proposal calls for an initial 60-day interim ceasefire, during which:
  • All 50 hostages are released in stages, in exchange for Palestinian security prisoners, including terrorists who murdered Israelis
  • Hamas will “freeze” military operations. (It is currently unclear what the freezing entails, some have understood this as refraining to continue fighting, whilst other analysts have interpreted this as the storing of weapons in warehouses, potentially under supervision of the Palestinian Authority.)
  • An IDF withdrawal and redeployment to agreed new lines under supervision by the US and Arab states. 
  • In that time, negotiations over a comprehensive agreement for future governance of the Strip. 
• On Wednesday, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen.  Zamir approved the “central idea” underpinning the IDF’s plans to conquer Gaza City. The plan includes the mobilisation of between 80,000 and 100,000 reservists.  
• According to the IDF, “The chief of staff stressed the supreme importance of improving the troops fitness and readiness to mobilise reservists, while granting R&R and providing breathing room ahead of the next missions.” 
• On Wednesday, over 370 trucks of humanitarian aid entered Gaza from both the north and south. According to COGAT, that is in additions to, “over 400 trucks were collected and distributed by the UN and international organisations. A further 119 pallets of aid were airdropped by international partners. Whist, “close to 140 patients and their caregivers exited Gaza through the Kerem Shalom Crossing to the Ramon Airport for treatment in a third country.” 
• Despite the flow of aid, more than 100 international organisations have accused Israel of preventing the entry of humanitarian aid. 
• COGAT rejected those claims saying that, “Israel acts to allow and facilitate the entry of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip, while Hamas seeks to exploit the aid to strengthen its military capabilities and consolidate its control over the population. This is sometimes done under the cover of certain international aid organisations, whether knowingly or unknowingly.”
• COGAT stressed that some international organisations have refused to comply with a new Israeli defence establishment policy, which includes a formal registration process requiring, among other things, the submission of a list of the organisation’s employees operating in Gaza for prior security screening. This process is “intended to safeguard the integrity of the humanitarian system while preventing the infiltration of terrorist elements into the aid mechanism.”
• It adds that such refusal “raises serious concerns about their true intentions and the possibility of ties between the organisation or its employees and Hamas…By contrast, nearly 20 international organisations that complied with the law and completed the registration process are bringing aid into the Gaza Strip regularly and in full cooperation. As evidence of this, approximately 300 humanitarian aid trucks enter the Gaza Strip every day through organizations registered under the new mechanism.”
• Relating to the West Bank, Finance Minister Smotrich announced that he would advance the construction of 3,401 new housing units in the controversial area of E1 that connects Jerusalem to Maale Adumim in the east. 
• The plan has been suspended for the past 20 years largely due to international pressure as it would effectively cut territorial contiguity between Ramallah, Bethlehem and east Jerusalem.  Smotrich was explicit in stating, “The E1 construction plans bury the idea of a Palestinian state and continue the numerous initiatives we have taken on the ground in the framework of the ‘de facto sovereignty’ plan that we began to implement upon the establishment of this government.” 
• Despite the rhetoric, the timeline for this initiative remains unclear. Similar plans have been raised in the past, but never implemented.  

Context: Following the impasse of the talks in Doha, the renewed talks are currently being led by Egypt. 

• Historically, in previous rounds of fighting between Israel and Hamas over the last decade and a half, it has always been Egypt that has led the ceasefire efforts. The only exception being President Obama’s efforts in 2014 to co-opt Turkey and Qatar into the process, which in hindsight only extended the fighting. 
• The Egyptian government has taken a harsh stance against the Muslim Brotherhood inside Egypt, whilst both Turkey and Qatar ideologically identify with them, and by extension with Hamas.    
• Earlier this week US Secretary of State Marco Rubio blamed Britain and France for the collapse of the ceasefire talks as the symbolic call for recognition of a Palestinian state emboldened Hamas’ negotiating stance.     
• A report in the Washington Free Beacon asserted that the UN discreetly modified its classification metrics so that it could declare a famine in Gaza. The UN’s Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), has accused the IDF of causing a famine in Gaza. However they did not disclose that they changed metrics of measurement, in order to classify the situation in Gaza as a famine. In the past, the IPC has declared famine only after finding that 30% of children in an area are suffering from acute malnutrition, as measured by comparing their weight to their height. But for Gaza, the IPC lowered the threshold to just 15%, and instead of getting accurate weight and height measurements, they just measured the circumference of children’s arms, a method known to be far less precise.
• Meanwhile parts of southern Gaza remain a quasi-autonomous area under the control of the Abu Shabab clan with IDF protection. Part of a pilot programme includes the establishment of a civilian mechanism that operates a school, a public kitchen, a field hospital, a police station and a mosque.  
• Of significance, the curriculum being taught by the school is a combination of Saudi and Emirati curriculum which including tolerance of Jews and Israel.

Looking ahead: Israeli negotiators have not yet joined the talks in Cairo, but their departure will signal that a potential deal is still possible.     

• Hostage families and their supporters have called for a one day strike on Sunday. The strike is supported by several local municipal authorities, universities and the Israel Bar Association along with private companies and other organisations and institutions. The main labour union the Histadrut will not join the strike, but will support individual acts of solidarity.
• The IDF is continuing to develop their plans for an operation in Gaza City which are expected to be presented to the security cabinet next week.

What’s happened: Egypt has presented its latest proposal for a comprehensive ceasefire agreement to Hamas.

• The deal would see a release of all Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, a permanent end to the war in Gaza, a provision for the demilitarisation of Gaza, and a “symbolic exile” of surviving Hamas leaders in Gaza.
• Khalil al-Hayya of Hamas’ five man ruling committee based in Doha, arrived in the Egyptian capital earlier this week to discuss the Egyptian proposal. Earlier reports of the Egyptian proposal indicated that it had a provision for the “freezing” of Hamas weapons stores, though it was unclear if the proposed “freeze” aligned with Israel’s demand for Hamas to be disarmed.
• Amid ongoing tensions between the IDF’s Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir and senior cabinet figures surrounding the planned Israeli offensive into Gaza City, Zamir this morning approved tactical plans for the upcoming operation earlier this morning at a meeting of the General Staff, representatives of the Shin Bet, and other officers directly involved in the planned offensive.
• The Israeli Ministry of Health published a report on the condition of released hostages detailing both the inhumane conditions of their captivity and the long-term physical and psychological damage which they are still dealing with.
  • Hostages were held underground in the dark with at most one meal a day, consisting of food unfit for consumption. Haaretz reports that hostages suffered from “infectious diseases, respiratory diseases, hallucinations and severe pains, dehydration that caused them to lose consciousness, serious respiratory disturbances and skin conditions that usually continued after their release. Many of them still suffer from irreversible nerve damage, sometimes due to damage from improperly treated gunshot wounds incurred during the abduction.” 
  • The report also describes the physical and sexual torture the hostages endured, as well as the psychological trauma they still carry with them. Released hostages did not get to mourn family members who were murdered alongside them on October 7 when they were abducted, some not knowing until their release what the fate of their family members was.
  • The report was delivered to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Geneva.
• The ICRC President Mirjana Spoljaric met with a delegation of mothers of Israeli hostages earlier this week. Israeli officials indicate that the following the meeting, the ICRC seems to actually be making an effort to convince Hamas to allow it provide food and medicine for the hostages who have been held now for 677 days.
• Israel’s COGAT (Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories) published a report yesterday strongly pushing back against claims of widespread starvation and famine in Gaza. Hamas authorities had reported a sudden increase of malnutrition related deaths in July without releasing any identifying information.
• COGAT was able to identify only a few of the reported deaths, and of the ones it identified, the fatalities were people with genetic disorders, degenerative muscular disorders, or other longstanding health problems. Many of those were actually people who had, prior to the war, been treated in Israel for their ailments.
• From October 2023 until June 2025, Hamas had reported 66 deaths related to malnutrition. In the month of July alone, it reported it reported 133 malnutrition related deaths.
• COGAT also reported that 320 aid trucks entered Gaza yesterday for distribution by the UN and international aid organisation, along with three fuel tankers for the operation of essential humanitarian systems. 

Context: Following the failure of talks in Doha, the centre of gravity for hostage negotiations has now moved to Cairo. 

• While the Doha talks focused on the Witkoff plan for a 60-day ceasefire with a partial hostage release during which a permanent end to the war would be agreed on, the Cairo talks are said to focus on a comprehensive deal.
• Such a deal would see all hostages released and an immediate end to the war, without a ceasefire on the way. The implication of this would be that the two sides agree now on final redeployments rather than on partial withdrawals as a form of down payment. It would also mean the sides, under pressure from the US and Arab governments, agree now on a framework for the governance of Gaza at war’s end.
• The renewed urgency from Egypt emerges as governments in the region and elsewhere seek to prevent a large Israeli military offensive into Gaza City, as the Israeli Government has committed to carrying out in the coming weeks if no deal is reached.
• Yedioth Ahronoth quotes a senior Arab official as saying, “Everyone in the international community understands that it is impossible without the presence of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza. Hamas also understands that they will not be able to remain in Gaza. Some want to leave Gaza and go build a new life, which is why they are interested in exile.”
• The Egyptians and Qataris have not closed the door on partial deal entirely, according to Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty. Speaking at a press conference in Cairo, he said “We are working very hard now in full cooperation with the Qataris and Americans.”
• Prime Minister Netanyahu told an Israeli interviewer that Israel had despaired of reaching an agreement along the lines of the Witkoff proposal, and that the idea of a partial deal was “behind us.” Netanyahu now wants “to return everyone within a framework that ends the war, but an end to the war on our terms.” 
• Since the beginning of efforts to reach a ceasefire there has a been competition between Egypt and Qatar, with Israel traditionally preferring the Egyptians due to historical security cooperation and shared hostility towards the Muslim Brotherhood.
• However, Egypt’s role is somewhat contradictory. For decades the porous Egyptian – Gaza border allowed goods, including weapons to be smuggled into the enclave. In addition Egypt has refused to allow Gazan refugee’s to even temporarily escape the combat zone making them partly complicit in the humanitarian crisis that has ensued.

Looking ahead: The US plans on expanding its alternative aid mechanism, known as the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, in the coming weeks. US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee said yesterday that the initiative would grow from four sites to sixteen in total. 

• The UN will add Hamas to its “blacklist” of organisations and countries that have sexual violence as an act of war, in line with a draft distributed to UNSC members by UN Secretary-General António Guterres of a report to be approved on August 19. In a letter to Israel’s UN Ambassador Danny Danon, Guterres warned that Israel might also be included on a future blacklist due to reports of sexual abuse of prisoners unless Israel implemented measures stronger enforcement and disciplinary measures. Guterres’ letter and the implied threat to include Israel on a future blacklist sparked an outraged response from the Ambassador, who called it “absurd.”
• If Hamas accept the outlines of the latest proposal an Israeli delegation is expected to travel to Cairo in the days ahead.

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu held two rare press conferences yesterday for international and local media in which he explained his government’s decision regarding taking control of Gaza.

• He emphasised, “Our goal is not to occupy Gaza. Our goal is to free Gaza, free it from Hamas terrorists.”
• He continued, “The war can end tomorrow if Gaza, or rather, if Hamas lays down its arms and releases all the remaining hostages. Gaza will be demilitarised, Israel will have overriding security responsibilities. A security zone will be established on Gaza’s border with Israel to prevent future terrorist incursions. A civilian administration will be established in Gaza that will seek to live in peace with Israel.”
• “We have about 70 to 75 percent of Gaza under Israeli control, military control… the security cabinet instructed the IDF to dismantle the two remaining Hamas strongholds in Gaza City and the Central Camps. Contrary to false claims, this is the best way to end the war, and the best way to end it speedily.
• “We will do so by first enabling the civilian population to safely leave the combat areas to designated safe zones. In these safe zones they will be given ample food, water and medical care, as we have done before. And again, contrary to false claims, our policy throughout the war has been to prevent a humanitarian crisis, while Hamas’s policy has been to create it.
• “Since the beginning of the war, Israel has let in close to 2 million tons of aid! I know of no other army that has enabled such aid to go to the civilian population in enemy territory.” Netanyahu emphasised there is no, and has never been a starvation policy.  
• To combat Hamas looting of aid trucks, he outlined three steps:
  • Designating safe corridors for humanitarian aid distribution
  • Increasing the number of safe distribution points managed by the Gazan Humanitarian Foundation.
  • Air drops; by the Israeli Air Force and “we’re inviting others to join us.”
• Netanyahu described this as a “humanitarian surge,” coordinated with President Trump and his team.
• To the international media he clarified, “The purpose of this news conference is to puncture the lies…Hamas statistics, Hamas claims, Hamas forgeries, and Hamas photographs.” he then presented examples of three emaciated Gazan children that had been presented by the international media as suffering starvation, when in fact all three had pre-existing medical  conditions.  Adding, “I’m looking right now into the possibility of a governmental suit against the New York Times, because this is outrageous. Of course, the correction was postage-size, I don’t know where it was buried. But this is outrageous, these are the three most celebrated photos, and they’re all fake.”
• In a response to a question Netanyahu committed to allowing more journalist access into Gaza, but presumably only embedded with the IDF at this point.
• Also Sunday Netanyahu spoke to  President Trump. According to the PMO readout, they “discussed Israel’s plans for taking control of the remaining Hamas strongholds in Gaza in order to bring about the end of the war, the release of the hostages and the defeat of Hamas.”
• On the ground the IDF announced that they “struck the terrorist Anas Al-Sharif, who posed as a journalist for the Al Jazeera network.” The IDF said that intelligence and a large trove of documents found in the Gaza Strip confirmed that al-Sharif belonged to Hamas and served as the leader of a cell, “responsible for advancing rocket attacks against Israeli civilians and IDF troops. “
• On Sunday COGAT announced over 280 trucks entered Gaza. Whilst 300 trucks were collected and distributed by the UN and international organisations, as well as additional fuel tankers. In addition, 131 pallets of aid were airdropped in cooperation with the UAE, Jordan, Germany,  Belguim, Italy, The Netherlands and France.

Context: Netanyahu decided to hold the press conferences as a response to growing international criticism, particularly moves by the UK, French and German governments.

• The precise plans for the ”takeover” of Gaza City remain vague and with apparent contradictions. On the one hand the prime minister emphasised a speedy operation to end the war as quickly as possible. On the other hand, he had previously set the (symbolic anniversary) October 7^th deadline to evacuate the estimated 1 million Palestinian civilians currently residing in Gaza City. Moreover, the IDF has stated “safety before speed” that the operation will be slow and cautious so as to protect the soldiers and Palestinian civilians.
• A second concern relates to the fate of the 50 hostages, 20 of who are thought to be still alive, held in horrific conditions for 675 days. Following the recent video footage there is widespread concern for their lives. Furthermore, the IDF has in the past been reluctant to operate is areas that intelligence indicates they are being held, so as to not risk their lives.
• A third concern focuses on the role of the IDF reserves who will carry out the operation. The IDF is acutely aware of the strain on reservists and their families, particularly those with families during the school holidays. This will continue to be an issue as the Jewish High Holiday period begins in mid-September. This is compounded by the ongoing lack of participation by the vast majority of ultra-Orthodox men.
• Veteran commentator Sever Plocker writing in Yediot Ahronot highlighted a fourth concern, “beyond military, political and moral arguments… dire economic consequences, higher taxes, severe budget cuts, capital flight, investors’ flight, the shekel’s devaluation, a spike in inflation and other painful economic repercussions.”
• In parallel to the military preparations US Special Envoy Witkoff met with Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani. The latest efforts are thought to try and  reach a comprehensive deal that includes an end to the fighting, a full Israeli withdrawal, the release of all the hostages, disarming the Palestinian factions, exiling senior Hamas officials overseas and the establishment of a professional civilian leadership that will administer the Gaza Strip.

Looking ahead: The IDF Southern Command are expected to present their operational plan to the IDF Chief of Staff at the end of this week, who will then share with the political echelon.

• The first stage of implementation will be to encourage the civilian population to vacate the proposed combat zone, and the establishment of an alternative with enough food and medical provisions.
• This process could take up to two months, in which time if there is a possibility to reach an agreement the operation could be cancelled.              

What’s happened: The Prime Minister’s Office announced a “decisive majority” of the security cabinet “supported the Prime Minister’s proposal for defeating Hamas.  Declaring, “The IDF will prepare for taking control of Gaza City while distributing humanitarian assistance to the civilian population outside the combat zones.” The security cabinet adopted the five principles for concluding the war:

• The disarming of Hamas.
• The return of all the hostages, the living and the deceased.
• The demilitarisation of the Gaza Strip.
• Israeli security control in the Gaza Strip.
• The establishment of an alternative civil administration that is neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority.

• The first stage is expected to include the encircling all the remaining areas of the Gaza Strip that are controlled by Hamas, then conquering them. 
• The government is facing severe internal criticism. Leader of the Opposition Lapid responded saying, “all Netanyahu has to offer is more war, more dead hostages, more announcements of soldiers killed and tens of millions of taxpayer funds to be poured into the bizarre fantasies of Ben Gvir and Smotrich.”
• The Hostages and Missing Families Forum released a statement saying the, “decision to pursue occupation of the Gaza Strip means abandoning the hostages, while completely ignoring the repeated warnings from military leadership and the clear will of the majority of the Israeli public.”
• “By choosing military escalation over negotiation, we are leaving our loved ones at the mercy of Hamas, an evil terrorist organisation that systematically starves and abuses the hostages…. They don’t have any time left. We can’t leave them in the hands of these monsters any longer.”
• There were angry demonstrations Thursday night in Jerusalem and in Tel Aviv demanding that the government take immediate action to free all the hostages in exchange for ending the war. In Tel Aviv, demonstrators blocked the Ayalon Highway. The police said the demonstrators sprayed tear gas at police, attacked them and set fire to tires. Nine people were arrested.
• British Ambassador to Israel Simon Walters also warned it “would be a huge mistake” for Israel to occupy all of Gaza. Adding, “The IDF has done all that it can do in Gaza, it’s not going to achieve any more by fighting any longer.”

Context: Netanyahu decided to continue the fighting after concluding that hostage negotiations with Hamas are not feasible and that he does not believe there is any other way to achieve the war’s objectives.

• In the lead up to the cabinet decision IDF Chief of Staff Zamir’s preference was to avoid committing to a complete take over, instead endorsing a siege around the areas in which Hamas remains active in the Gaza Strip. However, the prime minister felt the plan submitted by the military was insufficient, and decided to go for the alternative of a full conquest. However, in an apparent compromise, Netanyahu endorsed a staged plan, beginning with laying siege to Gaza City and only then imposing a full conquest.
• It appears there is full agreement between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu on the need for an immediate and powerful military course of action in the Gaza Strip that will overcome the hurdle of Hamas’s intransigence.
• Both Israel and the US reached the conclusion that Hamas’s had toughened its negotiating position as a result of the heavy anti-Israel sentiment internationally and the effect of the videos of the starved hostages on Israeli public opinion – a combination Hamas hoped would lead to the Israeli government to capitulate to its demands.
• Between yesterday’s endorsement of the plan and its implementation is a window for Hamas to accept the terms of the Witkoff proposal, which has been accepted by Israel. It is also possible that finally Qatar will place the requisite pressure on Hamas to reach an agreement, though this is yet to happen.
• Throughout the last year and half there has been anger over Qatar’s duplicitous role both as facilitator of talks but also the main backer of Hamas. There was hope that under Trump more pressure would be brought on Qatar to cut their financial support for Hamas, close down their other sources of income and expel their leaders based in Doha, although so far none of this has happened.
• According to Palestinian sources, Hamas is taking the Israeli threat seriously, but there is no sign yet that they are prepared to modify its stance.
• Despite calls from right wing coalition partners, the cabinet decision focuses on security control and not annexation of the Strip. Ahead of the cabinet meeting Netanyahu told Fox News, “We don’t want to keep it. We want to have a security perimeter, but we don’t want to govern it. We don’t want to be there as a governing body.”
• Instead the prime minister said that Israel wants to “hand it over to Arab forces that will govern it properly, without threatening us, and giving the Gazans a good life.”
• The British Ambassador also justified the anticipated unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state, arguing that, “If there was a peace process, if the Palestinian Authority and Israeli government were in regular dialogue about a permanent settlement to the conflict, we would consider our timing…. but there isn’t a process and that’s the problem.”
• He sought to reassure, by adding, “I recognise that for many Israelis, the idea of a Palestinian state is concerning, but the UK is deeply committed to Israeli security.”
• Separately, The Times reported that Israel is considering cancelling security cooperation with the UK if London recognises a Palestinian state in September. Israeli intelligence expertise has previously helped the UK foil several terrorist attacks on British soil.
• For more context on the decisionmaking process behind this development, please see our morning briefing from yesterday.

Looking forward: The plan is expected to be implemented in several stages:

• In the first stage the residents of Gaza City will be evacuated over the next two months and moved to safe areas whist continuing to increase the flow of aid to those areas.    
• After that, the IDF will surround Gaza City and troops will operate inside.

What’s happened: Later today the Israeli cabinet will discuss a major new offensive operation in Gaza that could see the entire Strip conquered by Israeli forces. The decision comes on the heels of unusually public disagreements between the military and the civilian leadership and deep divisions in public opinion.

• Leaks to Israeli media indicate that the Cabinet will decide between two general directions. The first is a full conquest and ground troops occupation of the coastal enclave, while the second could be besieging its central area around Gaza City without a broader occupation.
• The deliberations around the new offensive have included an unprecedentedly public fight between civilian and military leaders, with leaks from the Government and the IDF creating a public impression that IDF Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir strongly opposes a complete occupation of the Strip. Media outlets normally supportive of the Prime Minister have been strongly critical of Zamir, whose appointment only a few months ago was broadly supported by the Prime Minister’s supporters following the resignation of the previous Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi, who had been blamed by the PM’s circle for failures on October 7th.
• Zamir himself has not made any public statement on the deliberations and has denied being behind leaks critical of the Government’s plans. Writing in Israel Hayom, military affairs correspondent noted the importance — and limitations — of the doubts attributed to Zamir: “The chief of staff is not a bureaucrat. He is a military officer. It is his responsibility to give his professional opinion and to fight for it. He  has a responsibility to protect the men and women who serve under him, as well a responsibility to uphold morality and ethics. If he thinks hostages will be killed—he has to say so. If he thinks a proposed course of action will cost the lives of many soldiers, he has to say so. If he believes many innocent Palestinians will be killed, he has to say so. If he thinks this decision will result in IDF soldiers being hunted down everywhere on earth, he has to say so. If he thinks a certain decision might lead to an arms embargo against Israel that would endanger the IDF’s ability to operate in future, he has to say so. If he thinks there is real danger that standing army and reservist troops might buckle under the strain, he has to say so. If he thinks that [imposing a] military regime [on Gaza] would create a burden on the IDF that is beyond the military’s ability to bear, he has to say so.”
• The Prime Minster briefed Opposition Leader Lapid and the military options under consideration. Following their meeting, Lapid said, “I told Netanyahu, conquering Gaza is a very bad idea. You don’t begin a move like that unless the majority of the public is behind you, but the Israeli people doesn’t want this war. We are going to pay very high prices for it.”
• Over 300 trucks of aid entered Gaza yesterday, keeping up with the pace of recent days. Hundreds are still queuing for UN pickup. Three tankers of fuel for the operation of essential humanitarian systems entered as well. Additionally, 110 pallets of aid were airdropped with the involvement of the UAE, Egypt, Jordan, Germany, Canada and Belgium.

Context: During the January-March 2025 ceasefire, Israel withdrew from nearly all of the Gaza Strip except for a small buffer zone along the border and a corridor by the Rafah crossing. As of now, Israeli forces occupy roughly 75% of the Strip.

• The remaining 25% is the centre of the Strip and includes areas that the IDF has not yet operated in during the war. It is believed that the hostages are being held there. Most Gazan civilians are there too. It is known to be intensively mined and booby-trapped.
• The first option being considered by the Cabinet tonight is for a full occupation of the Strip, including the remaining 25% in the centre. Such an operation is expected to take six months. It would begin with evacuation notices to the civilians inside the central camps and Gaza City and the preparation of an emergency civilian infrastructure, including field hospitals and displaced persons camps. The operation would begin with a conquest of Gaza City and later move to the UNRWA camps around Deir al-Balah, where most of the remaining hostages are believed to be held.
• Maariv reports that the IDF believes that in such an operation, the IDF would sustain dozens of casualties and that many, and possibly all, of the living Israeli hostages would be killed by their captors.
• In parallel, the US is expected to finance the expansion, and possibly even take over the distribution of humanitarian aid.  This could include expanding facilities of the GHF from four today to 16 in the coming months.
• The second option being considered would not include a full occupation of the remaining territory, but rather an encirclement of key Hamas sites and a siege. This option, reportedly preferred by the IDF, seeks to ensure the safety of the hostages during any offensive and avoid a repeat of the incident one year ago where six hostages were murdered by their captors when IDF forces unknowingly approached the tunnel where they were being held. This operation too would likely come with heavy losses to the IDF and a great risk to the hostages.
• The renewed interest in a military offensive began in the last two weeks following the breakdown of ceasefire talks at the end of July. For weeks until then, Israel and Hamas negotiated the details of the so-called Witkoff initiative, which would have seen a 60-day ceasefire during which half of the twenty living hostages would have been released in exchange for thousands of Palestinians prisoners and detainees held by Israel, most for terrorism offences. Hamas scuttled the talks abruptly in late July amidst a surge in international criticism of Israel, and both Israeli and American officials have concluded that it is not presently interested in any deal that would release hostages.
• Speaking at the UN on Wednesday Foreign Minister Saar said recent pressure on Israel during the sensitive days in the negotiations, “directly contributed to the assassination of the chances to reach a hostage deal and ceasefire. They prolonged the war.”
• Also shaping Israeli assessments are the perceived successes and failures of the offensive operation Israel has been conducting in the Strip since May. Hamas’ fighting capabilities have been severely degraded, but it has managed to turn the suffering of its civilians, as well as that of the Israeli hostages it holds, into net political gains. Writing in Maariv, Avi Ashkenazi reports that “military officials said that the IDF had racked up many achievements in the fighting in Gaza in the past 22 months. First among them, Hamas no longer constitutes a terrorist army. It is a group of terrorist squads that are now fighting a guerilla war without a central command, without supply lines and without ordnance. Furthermore, the IDF has surrounded Hamas’s troops in the refugee camps and in Gaza City, it has damaged Hamas underground network and has destroyed large parts of the tunnels that connected the network. The result has been that Hamas terrorists who wished to relocate were forced do so above ground.”

Looking ahead: The cabinet will meet tonight to discuss the two plans. A final decision may not be reached until early next week. A breakthrough in efforts to secure a hostage release would suspend progress toward a broad Israeli military offensive, but as of now, there are no indications of any such development.