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Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Key background
  • Hamas is an Islamist Palestinian nationalist movement which currently governs the Gaza Strip. It is proscribed by the UK and in the majority of western countries.
  • Its primary state backers are Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. It is also active in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Syria, and Lebanon.
  • Since seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, it has continuously launched attacks against Israel and weaponised civilian infrastructure by embedding itself into schools, mosques, and hospitals.
  • Hamas’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel killed 1200, and over 250 hostages were subsequently taken to the Gaza Strip.
Photo credit: IDF Spokesperson

Updated December 12, 2024

Fighting continues as expanded delivery of aid arrives in Gaza

What’s happening: In parallel to ongoing fighting in Lebanon, the IDF continues to operate in northern and southern Gaza.

  • The operation in northern Gaza has been expanded beyond Jabalya to include the other northern towns of Bet Lahia and Beit Hanoun, where the IDF continues to thwart Hamas efforts to reconstitute their fighting infrastructure. 
  • According to the IDF, during a recent operation, “the troops located and dismantled several rocket launcher sites aimed at firing toward the communities near the Gaza Strip. The troops also located Hamas uniforms, military equipment, AK-47 rifles, and weapon components.” 
  • Earlier this week, the IDF opened the Kissufim Crossing for the transfer of trucks and the IDF facilitated hundreds of food and water packages to be delivered to Jabaliya and Beit Hanoun
  • On Wednesday Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) released a video of the hostage Alexander Troufanov, which his family consented to make public. This is the first video of a living captive for several months. 
  • In the video, Troufanov says that he and the other remaining hostages are running out of food and water. He also pleads for the Israeli public to continue to push for a hostage deal.

Context: The 101 remaining hostages have now been held in captivity for 404 days. Compounding the desperation, there are no negotiations for their release on the horizon. 

  • Hamas has continued to demand a ceasefire as a prerequisite, whist Israel is insisting on the release of hostages without a commitment to end the war.    
  • Last week Qatar’s Foreign Ministry announced it would suspend its mediation role due to continuing deadlock.
  • The US appears to back the Israeli stance of blaming Hamas. State Department Spokesperson  Matthew Miller said, “it’s time for Hamas to accept the proposal and alleviate the suffering of the Palestinian people.”
  • The hostages remain a crucial issue on the world stage, and it was also raised in the meeting between President Biden and President-elect Trump. 
  • Biden also met the families of the seven remaining American-Israeli hostages.  Following the meeting, the families said that Biden discussed a few initiatives that his administration is pursuing to try and reach a deal.
  • The IDF continues to face the challenge of distinction between Hamas and PIJ fighters on the one hand, and non-combatant Gazans on the other. In recent weeks, tens of thousands of Gazans have finally left the north for the expanded humanitarian zone. 
  • Israeli media has highlighted many of those fleeing severely criticised Hamas saying that the group stole aid and that they were happy with Israel killed Sinwar. 
  • The opening of Kissufim, which is directly adjacent to the expanded humanitarian zone, means it will take around 10 minutes to drive to the zone from the crossing. The route has also been paved by the IDF to allow speedy, safer delivery and avoid the risk of looting on the way.       
  • According to the IDF, over the last month, 741 aid trucks have been delivered to northern Gaza, while 50,000 litres of fuel, 180 blood units, and hundreds of boxes of medical supplies and food have been delivered to support critical hospital infrastructure in northern Gaza.
  • In addition, in coordination with the World Health Organisation, 244 patients and their companions have been evacuated from hospitals in northern Gaza over the past month.
  • The IDF insists that the main problem in delivering the aid is the collection and distribution mechanism of the international NGOs, adding that 800 trucks are currently waiting on the Gazan side of Kerem Shalom awaiting collection. 
  • Compounding the problem are efforts to smuggle weapons though arms convoys. On Sunday the IDF said it spotted “unusual movement” in one of the aid trucks, whereupon inspection, “troops discovered a bag containing ammunition for firearms.” 
  • The US had threatened a partial embargo on weapons transfers if they did not increase the flow of aid.  This week the 30 day deadline expired with the US appearing satisfied that Israel had at least met some of their criteria to improved provisions for aid.   
  • The release by PIJ confirms that it is not only Hamas that holds hostages. It has been speculated that others could be held by other small terror groups or even crime organisations, making it even harder to negotiate and secure their release.       
  • A medical report which was published by the Missing Families Forum this week, indicates that the 101 hostages who remain in Hamas captivity are in life-threatening condition.
  • According to expert estimates, some hostages have lost up to 50% of their body weight due to prolonged starvation. As the winter approaches, this severe physical degradation, combined with existing malnutrition, puts them at high risk for cold-related injuries such as frostbite and hypothermia.

Looking ahead: There is hope that, in what remains of the President Biden’s term in office, his team will place further pressure on Qatar and Hamas to renew talks for a hostage deal. The outgoing administration is prepared to collaborate with Trump to secure a hostage deal.

November 12, 2024

Fighting continues in Gaza, with five Israeli soldiers killed in the northern part of the Strip

  • The soldiers were named as staff Sergeant Orr Katz, Staff Sergeant Nave Yair Asulin, Staff Sergeant Gary Lalhruaikima Zolat, and Staff Sergeant Ofir Eliyahu. All four were under 21 years old. 
  • The fifth was a 34 year old reservist, Major Itamar Levin Fridman, from Eilat, was killed by an anti-tank missile in Jabaliya.
  • The IDF launched airstrikes on several buildings in the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, as well as in Gaza City in the northern strip. 
  • On Sunday, unusual movement was detected during the passage of a convoy between northern and southern Gaza that had been coordinated with the international community and monitored by the IDF. When the convoy was stopped for a security check along the humanitarian route, IDF troops discovered a bag containing ammunition for firearms. 
  • On Sunday evening, Channel 12 News reporter Ohad Hemo spoke to Gazans who severely criticised Hamas saying that the group stole aid and that they were happy with Israel killed Sinwar. 
  • Yesterday, the IDF announced it had expanded the humanitarian zone which now includes: field hospitals established since the start of the war, tent compounds, shelter supplies, and provisions of food, water, medicine, and medical equipment. This was coordinated by the Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) in cooperation with the international community. 
  • The IDF also announced that it is preparing to open the Kissufim Crossing, which is located across from the humanitarian area. It is hoped that his will enable aid to reach the area within minutes and prevents Hamas from stealing it.  

October 31, 2024

Herzog meets British hostage mother

President Herzog: Amanda Damari, mother of Emily, who was abducted and taken hostage from the youth neighborhood in Kibbutz Kfar Aza, told me in our meeting about her daughter, a truly remarkable young woman; strong, intelligent, with a love for life, and loved by all who know her. Emily, who holds British citizenship, has been brutally held by Hamas terrorists for over a year. We must continue to do everything to bring her back to her family, along with all our loved ones held hostage.

October 30, 2024

Cabinet to vote on budget today

What’s happening: Finance Minister Smotrich yesterday sent an outline of the 2025 budget ahead of a government meeting today to approve the budget.

  • The cabinet is expected to vote on the state budget today, however substantial disagreements remain, particularly over the size of next year’s defence budget.
  • The Ministry of Defence says it needs NIS 160 billion (£33.1bn), whereas the Finance Ministry says the defence needs can be met with NIS 110 billion (£22.76bn).
  • Part of this large discrepancy is based on different assessments over when the fighting will end in the north and south as well as the Iranian threat.  
  • In general, the budget focuses on economic recovery from the war. According to the Finance Ministry, the direct cost of funding the war in Gaza from October 2023 through August 2024 was 100 billion shekels (approximately £20.7 billion). 
  • The Bank of Israel estimates the total could rise to NIS 250 billion (£51.72bn) by the end of 2025, but that was before Israel’s incursion into Lebanon, which will add to this amount.
  • As a result, several ministries are facing substantial cuts including NIS 100 million (£20.70m) off the welfare ministry and NIS 133 million (£27.50m) off the education ministry.    
  • The budget also includes cuts to the Transport and Road Safety Ministry’s development budget and Health Ministry budgets.
  • Smotrich is reportedly trying to cut NIS 40 billion (£8.27 billion). There could also be changes in the income tax brackets and tax credit points, and some national insurance payments will be frozen.
  • Responding to concerns that some of the cuts will harm Israel’s most vulnerable, Smotrich said that the ministry will identify those who are significantly harmed by the stipend freezes.
  • Ultra-Orthodox parties have, until recently, insisted on a bill to exempt full-time Yeshiva (religious seminary) students from military service before supporting the budget.
  • However, facing widespread anger and resentment both from the secular public and parts of the national-religious community (which has lost a disproportionate number of soldiers over the course of the war) ultra-Orthodox leaders in the Knesset agreed to delay their demand for a new conscription law until after this week’s budget vote. 
  • Instead, by way of compensation, the United Torah Judaism party submitted a bill to ease the criteria for daycare subsidies for ultra-Orthodox children.  The bill seeks to circumvent a decision earlier in the year by the attorney-general to block subsidies for children of yeshiva students where the father has refused to serve in the military. 
  • Addressing the budgetary issue that affects the ultra-Orthodox community, Smotrich acknowledged that there are social implications but refrained from committing to supporting financial sanctions to discourage this situation from continuing. 

Context: The discussions over the budget and the ultra-Orthodox demand for a formal exemption from army service comes as the IDF predicts it needs greater manpower. Over the next two years, IDF reservists will continue to serve for longer periods of time. 

  • Some 300,000 reservists have been called up since the Hamas attack of October 7th 2023, 18 percent of whom were men over 40 who should have been exempted. 
  • The IDF plans to increase the number of soldiers who will protect the north and the south from Hamas or Hezbollah in a scenario where they try to attack these areas in the future and to provide a better sense of security for the civilian residents.
  • The IDF is also preparing for a scenario that, even if a ceasefire is agreed, the IDF will seek to maintain their freedom to respond to anticipated Hezbollah violations of any agreement. 
  • A group of reservists recently sent a letter to IDF Chief of  Staff Halevi asking to share the burden with members of the ultra-Orthodox community.
  • In a hospital visit to an ultra-orthodox wounded soldier, Halevi talked about the important of ultra-Orthodox Jews serving, saying, “This is what’s right socially, and I think that when we manage to grow from this… from realising the need for a larger IDF, it could also bring a very positive social change.”
  • Halevi added that, “more soldiers are needed for the conscripted army and IDF reserves.”

Looking ahead: Once the cabinet approves the budget, it is then voted on in the Knesset.

  • Netanyahu and Smotrich have stated their intention to pass the budget by the end of 2024. With the coalition now with 68 seats, as long as the ultra-Orthodox parties are on board there is no reason why the budget should encounter difficulties. The final deadline to pass the budget is March 31st, which would result in the government’s collapse and early elections.

IDF Recruitment – Background

  • In 1948, David Ben Gurion struck a deal with the ultra-Orthodox community to exempt from service a capped number whose full-time occupation was Torah study. At the time, the principle that ‘Torah study is a vocation’ was never enshrined in law, but rather in a Defence Ministry regulation. Given the much smaller ultra-Orthodox population, the exemption applied only to 400 Yeshiva students. 
  • With the election of Menachem Begin as Prime Minister in 1977, the cap was removed and all Yeshiva students were able to avail themselves of the exemption.
  • In the late 1990s, the Supreme Court began a series of interventions on the issue. In a 1998 ruling Rubinstein v. The Minister of Defence, the court, under the leadership of Aharon Barak, ruled that exemption was discriminatory and violated the principle of equality. It subsequently ordered that suitable legislation be explored to remedy the status quo. In 2012, the Court similarly ruled unconstitutional the Tal Law, the first attempt at a legislative solution which, although designed to encourage greater ultra-Orthodox participation, left the process largely voluntary, resulting in ongoing low rates of service. 
  • The 2013 Netanyahu government – which did not comprise ultra-Orthodox parties – passed legislation requiring an annually increasing percentage of ultra-Orthodox men to be drafted. This was encouraged by coalition partners Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. Between 2012-14, partly as a result of reduced budgets, the amount of ultra-Orthodox students studying in Yeshiva declined by 8 per cent. 
  • The 2015 ultra-Orthodox parties return to power led to new legislation undercutting the previous policy, which in turn was once again struck down by the court. An increase in budgets for yeshiva students led to 10 per cent increase in the number of students. In 2017, the court ruled the new legislation unconstitutional and demanded the government make changes that respect the principle of equality.
  • During the Bennett-Lapid government, Defence Minister Gantz succeeded in passing, on a first reading, a bill lowering the age of exemption to 21. The bill, whose progress collapsed along with the government, also provided for the eventual drafting of the majority of the ultra-Orthodox into the IDF, with the quota for those obliged to serve rising each year. 
  • In 2022, when the coalition was formed, Netanyahu agreed to pass a new law on conscription that would have met ultra-Orthodox demands, but it has been repeatedly delayed, first in a battle over the justice system and later over the war.
  • In June 2024, the High Court ruled the state must begin drafting ultra-Orthodox Jewish seminary students, and the military said it would recruit about 3,000 ultra-Orthodox a year

October 29, 2024

Israel legislates to restrict UNRWA 

What happened: On Monday, the Israeli parliament passed two bills against UNRWA (the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East). One bill bans them from operating from inside Israel (East Jerusalem). The second prevents Israel authorities from engaging with the agency and their work in Gaza and the West Bank.A majority of 92-10 MKs voted in support of the bill effectively banning the agency, with 87-9 doing so against another bill which statutorily prevents state authorities from being in contact with it.The legal mechanism for implementing this bill will be the revoking of a 1967 exchange of notes which provide UNRWA with the basis to conduct its activities.Unless challenged in Israel’s courts, the legislation will take effect in 90 days from now. The case against UNRWA: Israel and UNRWA’s relationship has long been difficult, with tensions coming to a head in the aftermath of last year’s 7th October attacks on southern Israel.The Israeli government has alleged that at least 19 UNRWA employees participated in these attacks, prompting an investigation by the UN’s own watchdog (the Office of Internal Oversight Services). In August, it was deemed that there was enough evidence to dismiss nine employees based on Israel’s allegations.In July, Israel wrote to UNRWA listing 100 staff members it further alleged were members of terrorist organisations in the Gaza Strip, including Hamas.According to the Israeli Ministry of Defence the picture is even more severe, suggesting 1,500 UNRWA workers, (more than 10 per cent of UNRWA’s staff in Gaza) have active ties to terrorist organisations.One of those named was Muhammad Abu Attawi who has since been identified as a commander in Hamas’s special operations division and lead the killing of Israelis fleeing the Nova Festival on the morning of 7th October. In the past week, UNRWA has confirmed he was employed by the agency as a driver since 2022 and that no action was taken against him, despite warnings about his terrorist affiliations.Last month, it also emerged that Hamas’s designated leader in Lebanon, Fateh Sherif Abu el-Amin, was the head teacher of an UNRWA school in al-Bass, after his assassination in an airstrike. UNRWA confirmed that although he was an agency employee, he had been “put on administrative leave without pay in March, and was undergoing an investigation following allegations that UNRWA received about his political activities.”The IDF has also uncovered extensive Hamas military infrastructure adjacent to and underneath UNRWA’s Gaza Strip sites, including a significant tunnel network and data centre under the agency’s local headquarters in February 2024. Israel has further claimed that it is inconceivable that UNRWA officials were unaware of Hamas’s military presence in such close proximity.    UNRWA has long been criticised for its failure to remove inciteful content which glorifies terrorism and demonises Israel and Jews from educational materials used in its schools. Additionally, UNRWA educators have also been identified as sharing hateful and inciteful content on social media.UNRWA is also the only UN agency dedicated to supporting refugees from a specific region impacted by one conflict, and works separately from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. It has also been criticised for perpetuating Palestinians’ refugee status which is inherited, thus undermining the prospects of finding a positive and lasting resolution.Speaking during the debate, one of the bill’s sponsors Likud MK Bismuth said, “UNRWA is not a refugee aid organisation, it is a Hamas aid organisation. UNRWA employees were full partners in the brutal, incomprehensible massacre committed against us.” International pressure: Israeli diplomats had warned, that even among their closest allies there was strong pressure not to pass these bills.  However the momentum and support from both government and opposition helped them pass with substantial majorities.  The UK and US along with Germany, France, Australia, Canada, Japan, and South Korea have all condemned the passing of yesterday’s bill, warning that it could have “devastating consequences” in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.In a statement released yesterday, Prime Minister Starmer said “The UK is gravely concerned at the UNRWA bills that Israel’s Knesset has passed. This legislation risks making UNRWA‘s essential work for Palestinians impossible, jeopardising the entire international humanitarian response in Gaza and delivery of essential health and education services in the West Bank…We urge Israeli lawmakers to ensure that UNRWA can continue to deliver its essential work.” Looking ahead / implementation: The legislation goes into effect in 90 days. In that time Israel will need to present working solutions to replace UNRWA.     The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office issued a statement asserting that Israel is prepared to work with international partners to ensure that can still reach Gazan civilians in the 90 days before the law is implemented.It also said “In the 90 days before this legislation takes effect – and after – we stand ready to work with our international partners to ensure Israel continues to facilitate to civilians in Gaza in a way that does not threaten Israel’s security.”It is expected that Israel will be looking to work closely with other international aid organisations like the World Food Program or UNICEF to fill the gap.    Regarding UNRWA’s role inside Israel (primarily related to health provisions and education in East Jerusalem) the sponsors of the legislation insist that the state can take over these responsibilities

October 28, 2024

Assessing Israel’s strike on Iran

Israeli and Polish air forces held a joint maneuver For the first time. Fighter pilots from the Israeli and Polish air forces will on Thursday March 15 2012 complete a week of joint exercises. The Polish dispatched a number of F-16 fighter jets which have been holding maneuvers alongside IAF F-16 and F-15s. The maneuvers are based in the Uvda Air Force Base near Eilat. Photo by Ofer Zidon/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** îèåñ çéì àåéø àååéø

Operational overview: Early on Saturday morning, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) struck 20 targets in three different areas inside Iran.

  • It is understood that the IAF successfully targeted Iran’s advanced long-range air-defence systems, several manufacturing sites for vital components of the Iranian ballistic missile programme, and storage sites for ballistic weapons.
  • The operation is considered one of the most complex missions the IAF has ever undertaken. It involved around 140 aircraft of various types, including those for the attack itself, intelligence gathering, and contingencies for rescue missions. Over half of the crews were reservists, and four members of the flight crew were women.
  • The strike was carried out in the early hours, with targets chosen to ensure no civilian casualties and only minimal military personnel losses.
  • Although Israel operated independently, the strikes were closely coordinated with the US.
  • As a result, Israel did not attack any nuclear or energy facilities, or symbols of the state, focusing solely on military targets. 

Strategic impact: Israel has deemed this operation a success. It has significantly degraded Iran’s ballistic missile production capability, neutralised its air defences, and exposed the regime’s vulnerability to the Iranian public and the wider region.

  • For three hours after Israel had disabled Iranian air-defence systems, it had the ability to target any site it wanted.
  • The Iranians are believed to be reflecting on this vulnerability as they consider whether to respond.
  • Israel has incapacitated Iran’s Russian-made S-300 advanced air-defence systems. As Russia requires all available systems to defend against Ukraine, Iran is unlikely to be able to replenish these defences in the near future.
  • Initial estimates suggest that it could take Iran 2-3 years to reestablish capacity to build more ballistic missiles.    
  • Iran can no longer rely on its chief proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, to retaliate against Israel. As a result of a year of conflict, both groups have been substantially weakened.
  • Israel considers this operation as a warning to Iran. It still has a bank of targets it can strike.
  • To emphasise this,  IDF Chief of Staff Halevi said  Sunday that the operation, “used only some of our capabilities. We can do much more. We hit strategic systems in Iran. This has great importance. And we will now see how matters develop. We are ready for all scenarios in all the theatres.”
  • Concurrently, the IDF continues to engage in operations in Lebanon and Gaza. While Israel is making progress in uprooting terror infrastructure on both fronts, it has come at a high cost with 23 soldiers falling in the last week. 

Israel – US coordination: US officials appear satisfied with the operation. Although the mission was carried out solely by Israel, coordination with the US, particularly over overflight airspace, was crucial.

  • According to reports of a phone call last week between President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu, Biden had warned Israel not to target the nuclear or energy sectors.
  • Instead, the US encouraged Israel to respond strongly enough to deter further attacks while minimising the risk of further escalation.
  • The THAAD (Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence) battery is now deployed in Israel manned by US personnel for the first time ever.
  • Secretary of Defence Austin continues to speak regularly with Defence Minister Gallant, following the strike Austin once more reaffirmed the US “ironclad commitment to Israel’s security and support for its right to defend itself.” According to the Pentagon, “He told the Minister that Iran should not make the mistake of responding to Israel’s strikes, which should mark the end of this exchange.“ 

Internal criticism: The Israeli government faced criticism from within the Likud faction as well as the opposition for not taking the opportunity to strike Iran’s nuclear programme.

  • Leader of the Opposition Yair Lapid stated, “I congratulate the IAF for once again proving its operational capabilities of the highest level in the world and its aerial superiority. Israel’s enemies know this morning that the IDF is strong, can attack powerfully, and reach anywhere. The decision not to attack strategic and economic targets in Iran was mistaken. We could have and should have exacted a much higher price from Iran.”
  • The government was cautious, given that it was already engaged in conflicts on two fronts, and was less inclined to open a new major conflict. However, following the Iranian attack three weeks ago, which included 180 ballistic missiles, Israel felt compelled to respond. 

Diplomatic initiatives: Following two months of no talks, Mossad director Barnea, arrived in Doha, to begin talks with the director of the CIA, Burns, and Prime Minister of Qatar, Al Thani with a view to revisit parameters to enable the release of the 101 hostages now held for 388 days.

  • Not to be outdone by Qatar, Egyptian President Sisi has proposed a ten-day cease-fire in Gaza to exchange four Israeli hostages and an unspecified number of Palestinian prisoners in order to kickstart more substantial negotiations.
  • Prime Minister has directed Sin Bet director Bar to engage with Egypt to improve the terms.  All this without it being clear if Hamas will consent to a deal.
  • US envoy Hochstein is expected to arrive in Israel tomorrow to see if there scope to reach a ceasefire in the north.

Looking Ahead: Israel remains on high alert, waiting to see if Iran will respond militarily.

  • The current prevailing view in Israel is that Iran will respond, as the regime cannot afford to appear weak, both externally and domestically.
  • If Iran does retaliate, it risks leaving itself vulnerable to further attacks.
  • Regardless, with Iranian air defences down, Israel may choose to strike more targets again

October 27, 2024

Blinken in Israel

United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with Israelis during a protest calling for the release of Israelis held kidnapped by Hamas terrorists in Gaza, in Tel Aviv on May 1, 2024. Photo by Avshalom Sassoni/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** ארצות הברית אנתוני בלינקן שר החוץ האמריקאי מלחמת חרבות ברזל הפגנה מפגינים שבויים חטופים

Blinken visit: US Secretary of State Blinken was in Israel on Tuesday. He met with Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defence Minister Gantz, President Herzog and families of hostages held in Gaza. 

  • His meeting in Jerusalem with Netanyahu lasted for around two and a half hours, including a one-on-one meeting and a broader conversation with their respective teams. Netanyahu’s office described the meeting as “friendly and productive.” 
  • For Israel the top agenda item remains the ongoing Iranian threat: “The prime minister thanked the American secretary of state for the support of the US in the fight against Iran’s axis of evil and terrorism.”
  • Regarding Lebanon, Prime Minister Netanyahu highlighted the “need to effect a security and diplomatic change in the north that will enable Israel to return its residents safely to their homes.”
  • Also yesterday, Hezbollah formally took responsibility for the drone strike on Netanyahu’s home in Caesarea last weekend.
  • According to the Prime Minister’s Office, “The American Secretary of State expressed the US’s deep shock over the Iranian attempt, via Hezbollah, to eliminate the Prime Minister of Israel, and made it clear that this was an exceptionally extreme incident. The Prime Minister thanked the Secretary of State and said that this is a dramatically significant issue that must not be ignored.”
  • The pair also discussed the ongoing fighting in Gaza, efforts to reach a hostage deal as the “two sides discussed the issue of the governing framework in Gaza on the day after the war.” 
  • According to the State Department, Blinken spoke of the, “importance of charting a new path forward in the post-conflict period that allows Palestinians to rebuild their lives and provides governance, security, and reconstruction for Gaza. The Secretary emphasised the need for Israel to take additional steps to increase and sustain the flow of humanitarian assistance into Gaza and ensure that assistance reaches civilians throughout Gaza.”
  • Once more, “The Secretary reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to Israel’s security.”
  • Later in Tel Aviv, Blinken met with representatives of the seven families of hostages that remain in Gaza with dual US citizenship. According to the families they asked him to, “Apply more pressure on the mediating countries, especially Qatar, to restart negotiations and leverage Sinwar’s elimination into a deal for releasing all hostages.” 

Context: This was Blinken’s 11th visit To Israel since the war began and a further example that despite disagreements, the two allies remain closely coordinated on all the major issues on the security and diplomatic agenda. 

  • Regarding the Iran threat, Israeli leaders thanked Secretary Blinken for his support – in particular the deployment of US THAAD missile defence system recently installed in Israel for the first time. 
  • In his meeting with President Herzog, Herzog stressed the northern arena where, “we’ve been constantly attacked for a year already, and definitely in the last few weeks, constantly attacked from Lebanon”, is “why we have to take all the steps possible to eradicate the capabilities of Hezbollah, to move forward in preventing the onslaught against the citizens of Israel, and the cities and towns, their attacks with drones, missiles, rockets, their attack on the private home of the Prime Minister – it’s all part of a major campaign which, at the end of it all is led and commanded in Tehran. And that is why, of course, a major answer has to be made towards Tehran.”
  • On Gaza, the US sees a new window of opportunity following the death of Hamas leader Sinwar to pursue a hostage deal.
  • In tandem, the US are keen to increase to assist the civilian population of Gaza.
  • As part of this effort (and partly in response to the joint letter last week from Secretaries Blinken and Austin), Israel has facilitated the entrance of  237 trucks into northern Gaza in last 9 days.  
  • The decision was apparently criticised by head of the Shin Bet who argued aid should be kept at a level consistent with international law but not beyond that. The concession for increasing aid should be part of the levers used to induce a hostage deal.  
  • There is also ongoing concern that Hamas is still able to take over the aid, syphoning it off to their fighters at the expense of the general population.  
  • Another important component of the conversations are ongoing diplomatic efforts, along with regional Arab allies, for a plan for future governance of the Gaza Strip. Although details have not been released, part of Blinken’s plan is place Gaza under the authority of a temporary caretaker – an international mission. Their role would be to deliver , establish law and order, and lay the groundwork for future governance.

October 21, 2024

Israel targets Hezbollah financial infrastructure  

An anti-missile system fires interception missiles as rockets fired from Lebanon, as it seen from the northern Israeli city of Kiryat Shmona, October 20, 2024. Photo by Ayal Margolin/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** כיפת ברזל מערכת יירוט לבנונים גבול הצפון יירוטים

Recent IDF airstrikes on Hezbollah targeted sites linked to the group’s financing in Beirut and south Lebanon.

  • The Al-Qard al-Hassan Association, directly funds Hezbollah’s terror activities, including the purchase weapons and payments to operatives in Hezbollah’s military wing.
  • These strikes follow an IDF warning on Sunday evening that “anyone located near sites used to fund Hezbollah’s terror activities must move away from these locations immediately.”
  • IDF spokesman, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, also said that “in the coming days, we will reveal how Iran funds Hezbollah’s terror activities by using civilian institutions, associations, and NGOs that act as fronts for terrorism”.
  • On Saturday, Hezbollah attempted to assassinate Prime Minister Netanyahu with a drone strike on his Caesarea.
  • While empty at the time, the residence only suffered “superficial” damage without causing any injuries, it is the first semi-successful targeting of the prime minister and his family since the outbreak of war last October.
  • Speaking after the strike, the prime minister said that “the agents of Iran who tried to assassinate me and my wife today made a bitter mistake” with Defence Minister Gallant adding that the attack was essentially on “the State of Israel and its government symbols.”
  • Iran has distanced itself from this attack, seeking to attribute responsibility to Hezbollah with Tehran’s permanent mission to the UN saying “the action in question has been carried out by Hezbollah in Lebanon.”
  • The attack received widespread condemnation with the Prime Minister Starmer, calling Prime Minister Netanyahu the same day to express his alarm about the attack. A readout of the call also says they discussed the death of Yahya Sinwar and the opportunity it presented to achieve a ceasefire and hostage release deal, the importance of getting more aid into Gaza, and reaching a political solution in Lebanon.
  • Fighting continues in Lebanon with the IDF’s Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi, telling troops that the IDF had killed an estimated 1500 Hezbollah operators and “taken out their entire command layer.”
  • Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s rocket and missile fire on Israel continues without abatement, with over 170 projectiles being fired yesterday.
  • In Gaza, the commander of the Israel’s 401stArmoured Corps brigade, Colonel Ehsan Daqsa, has been killed in fighting in Jabaliya in the northern Gaza Strip. Daqsa, 41 and from the Druze town of Daliyat al-Karmel is one of six full colonels to fall during the war, four of whom were killed on 7th October.
  • Colonel Daqsa’s death comes as the IDF intensifies its latest offensive on Jabaliya, saying that Hamas was attempting to re-establish itself there.

Whilst Israel remains in a multi front war, the security cabinet convened on Sunday night to review a variety of issues.

  • It is understood that preparations have been completed for an attack on Iran, however it remains unclear when and what the targets will be.
  • In anticipation of another Iranian counterstrike, the US have now deployed a THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defence) battery to help defend Israel. With Israel also requesting a second battery.
  • The second item at the security cabinet was the ongoing war in Lebanon. After the drone attack at prime minister’s house, Israel is expected to be preparing a tough response.
  • Israel’s latest targeting of Hezbollah’s financial institution is aimed in part to continue targeting their terror infrastructure. Secondly, it will limit their ability to pay their troops, further decreasing their motivation to fight.
  • Hezbollah terrorists captured in recent days as part of the IDF ground operation in southern Lebanon told interrogators that Hezbollah had paid money to UNIFIL personnel for use of their positions in southern Lebanon.
  • As a result of UNIFIL intransience to move north away from the fighting, it has been suggested that Israel will base any future arrangement on commitments made by the Lebanese Armed Forces and less on UNIFIL, as it turns out that the international force has been compromised.
  • Iranian made drones continue to pose a significant threat to Israel’s home front.  Of over 10,000 projectiles launched by Hezbollah in the last year around 1,500 have been drones. Of these around 170 have evaded interception.
  • The most recently drone attacks struck an old age home in Herzliya on Yom Kippur, an army base near Binyamina last week (that killed four soldiers in the dining room) and now the strike in Caesarea.
  • The drones are small and hard for radars to detect, plus they are capable of frequently changing altitude. Their slow flight speed also makes them challenging for Israeli fighter jets to intercept. The effectiveness of the drones is increasing due to the fact that they are fired in salvos, together with rockets, attempting to overwhelm Israel’s defence system.
  • A third issue being explored is a plan to distribute in the northern Gaza Strip by a private US initiative.
  • In the meantime, according to COGAT, 114 trucks entered Gaza yesterday via the Kerem Shalom and Erez crossings.
  • As part of Israel’s preparations for the winter months and the efforts to find solutions in the field of sanitation, 3,000 tons of hygiene products, 15 garbage containers, and for the first time – a sewage suction truck entered Gaza yesterday.
  • 8 tankers of fuel and 6 tankers of cooking gas were transferred into Gaza. 2 tankers of fuel were coordinated for humanitarian purposes in northern Gaza.
  • Today, between 10:00 and 14:00, the IDF will pause its operations in the Najar Arjalas neighbourhood in Khan Yunis to enable the movement of .

With continued efforts to reach a ceasefire and diplomatic solution, US envoy Amos Hochstein will hold talks with Lebanese officials in Beirut later today.

  • According to latest reports the proposal would allow Israel to enforce the disarmament of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and maintain access to the country’s airspace.
  • Tomorrow, US Secretary of State Blinken is scheduled to arrive in Israel.

October 18, 2024

PM Starmer – UK ‘will not mourn death of Sinwar’

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has said that the UK would not mourn the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.

In a statement he said that: “As the leader of the terrorist group Hamas, Yahya Sinwar was the mastermind behind the deadliest day in Jewish history since the Holocaust, as 1200 people were slaughtered in Israel.”

The Prime Minister went on to say that his “thoughts are with the families of those victims. The UK will not mourn his death.” PM Starmer then repeated calls for the “release of all hostages, an immediate ceasefire and an increase in are long overdue so we can move towards a long-term, sustainable peace in the Middle East.”

October 18, 2024

Hamas leader Sinwar killed in Rafah

Image credit: IDF Spokesperson

Yesterday, Israel confirmed that it killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, mastermind of the 7th October attacks, in the southern Gaza Strip on Wednesday.

  • During a routine operation, soldiers were clearing booby trapped buildings in the Tel al-Sultan area of Rafah when they became engaged in a firefight with three terrorists.
  • His final moments alive were captured on an IDF drone, injured in one hand, he throws a stick at the recording drone.   
  • Following his death in the gunfight, troops were able to enter the building and retrieve his body. 
  • Although a number of reports and photos of the body leaked throughout the day yesterday, Sinwar’s death was only confirmed in the evening following the results of DNA tests.

Responses: Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “While this is not the end of the war in Gaza, it’s the beginning of the end. To the people of Gaza, I have a simple message: This war can end tomorrow. It can end if Hamas lays down its arms and returns our hostages.”

  • He added, “a message of hope to the peoples of the region: The axis of terror that was built by Iran is collapsing before our eyes. Nasrallah is gone. His deputy Mohsen is gone. Haniyeh is gone. Deif is gone. Sinwar is gone. The reign of terror that the Iranian regime has imposed on its own people and on the peoples of Iraq, , Lebanon and Yemen – this too will come to an end. All those who seek a future of prosperity and peace in the Middle East should unite to build a better future.”   
  • Prime Minister Starmer said, “As the leader of the terrorist group Hamas, Yahya Sinwar was the mastermind behind the deadliest day in Jewish history since the Holocaust, as 1,200 people were slaughtered in Israel. Today my thoughts are with the families of those victims. The UK will not mourn his death.”
  • Starmer called for, “the release of all hostages, an immediate ceasefire and an increase in are long overdue so we can move towards a long-term, sustainable peace in the Middle East.”
  • The White House issued a statement from President Biden saying: “This is a good day for Israel, for the United States, and for the world…Israel has had every right to eliminate the leadership and military structure of Hamas. Hamas is no longer capable of carrying out another October 7…There is now the opportunity for a “day after” in Gaza without Hamas in power, and for a political settlement that provides a better future for Israelis and Palestinians alike. Yahya Sinwar was an insurmountable obstacle to achieving all of those goals. That obstacle no longer exists. But much work remains before us.”
  • IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Hagari noted, “For the past year, Sinwar tried to escape justice. He failed. We said we would find him and bring him to justice, and we did. It was Yahya Sinwar who decided to wage war with Israel while hiding behind civilians in Gaza. Since the beginning of this war that Sinwar started on October 7th we’ve said: Our war is with Hamas, not the people of Gaza. We mean it. We are working to increase the amount of including food, water and medicine that goes into Gaza – to the people of Gaza who are suffering because of Yahya Sinwar.”
  • Michael Herzog, Israel’s Ambassador to the US, wrote on X, “Today, the world is a safer place. Yahya Sinwar, the sadistic mastermind behind the heinous Hamas terror attack of October 7, has finally faced justice. Like the elimination of Osama Bin Laden and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, taking out Hassan Nasrallah and Yahya Sinwar opens up significant opportunities for a better and more secure region.

Sinwar’s death could be a decisive turning point in this war, that he ruthlessly planned and led.

  • His death is a crushing blow to Hamas and its leadership already decimated, with most of the senior commanders now dead.
  • It was Sinwar’s extremist stance that was considered a major impediment to securing a hostage deal. It is too soon to predict who may replace him and what stance they will take. 
  • The highest profile Hamas leader in Gaza is Sinwar’s brother and senior military commander Mohammad.  
  • The rest of the senor leadership are based in Qatar and include Khaled Meshaal, Mousa Abu Marzouk and Osama Hamdan.
  • Earlier this year, Sinwar was appointed Hamas’s politburo chief, having served as its leader in the Gaza Strip since 2017 when he replaced Ismail Haniyeh. Even within Hamas, he was known for his radical views.
  • Born in the Gaza Strip in 1962, he became involved with the Muslim Brotherhood in his youth and developed a close relationship with Hamas’s founder, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin in the 1980s. He established the group’s internal security organisation in 1987 and became known for his brutality towards those he suspected of collaborating with Israel.
  • He was arrested in 1988 and convicted by Israel of the murder of 12 Palestinians, receiving four life sentences. However, he only served 22 years before being released in 2011 as part of the Shalit deal.
  • Two years after returning to the Gaza Strip, he was elected a member of Hamas’s Political Bureau and became its head in 2017.
  • During his leadership tenure, Sinwar prioritised developing Hamas’s military strength and capabilities as well as consolidating relations with Tehran. 
  • He also succeeded in deceiving the Israeli government into believing Hamas wanted calm and to prove its ability to govern Gaza. This misconception was shattered by the 7th October attacks.
  • In reality, the result of his decisions brought disaster to his own people.
  • Meanwhile counter-insurgency operations have continued in northern Gaza.  The IDF released the names of 12 known Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad operatives who were targeted  inside a command and control centre embedded inside the ‘Abu Hassan’ School. According to the IDF, “These terrorists were involved in rocket attacks against Israeli territory, as well as in planning and committing terrorist attacks against IDF troops and the State of Israel in recent days.”
  • The IDF further noted, “prior to the strike, numerous steps were taken to mitigate the risk of harming civilians, including the use of precise munitions, aerial surveillance, and additional intelligence.”  Inside the school the IDF also discovered, “dozens of weapons, explosives, ammunition, explosive bricks, and mortars.”

Sinwar left no obvious successor, it remains to be seen who will now step up.  

  • There is already renewed hope that Sinwar’s death may now present an opportunity to open a substantive diplomatic effort. Speaking last night, President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed that there was now an opportunity to move towards a ceasefire and hostage agreement deal, and that Israel and the US would work together to achieve one.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu has also said that those holding hostages would be spared if they released their captives and laid down their weapons.

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