What’s happening: The Hamas delegation led by Khalil al-Hayya remains in Cairo for ongoing talks over a potential new hostage deal and ceasefire.      

• The talks are being led by the Director of the Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate Hassan Rashad. He has been in contact with Israeli officials and has kept them apprised of the developments, although Israel has not at this point formally joined the negotiations. 
• According to Arab media reports the latest proposal calls for an initial 60-day interim ceasefire, during which:
  • All 50 hostages are released in stages, in exchange for Palestinian security prisoners, including terrorists who murdered Israelis
  • Hamas will “freeze” military operations. (It is currently unclear what the freezing entails, some have understood this as refraining to continue fighting, whilst other analysts have interpreted this as the storing of weapons in warehouses, potentially under supervision of the Palestinian Authority.)
  • An IDF withdrawal and redeployment to agreed new lines under supervision by the US and Arab states. 
  • In that time, negotiations over a comprehensive agreement for future governance of the Strip. 
• On Wednesday, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen.  Zamir approved the “central idea” underpinning the IDF’s plans to conquer Gaza City. The plan includes the mobilisation of between 80,000 and 100,000 reservists.  
• According to the IDF, “The chief of staff stressed the supreme importance of improving the troops fitness and readiness to mobilise reservists, while granting R&R and providing breathing room ahead of the next missions.” 
• On Wednesday, over 370 trucks of humanitarian aid entered Gaza from both the north and south. According to COGAT, that is in additions to, “over 400 trucks were collected and distributed by the UN and international organisations. A further 119 pallets of aid were airdropped by international partners. Whist, “close to 140 patients and their caregivers exited Gaza through the Kerem Shalom Crossing to the Ramon Airport for treatment in a third country.” 
• Despite the flow of aid, more than 100 international organisations have accused Israel of preventing the entry of humanitarian aid. 
• COGAT rejected those claims saying that, “Israel acts to allow and facilitate the entry of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip, while Hamas seeks to exploit the aid to strengthen its military capabilities and consolidate its control over the population. This is sometimes done under the cover of certain international aid organisations, whether knowingly or unknowingly.”
• COGAT stressed that some international organisations have refused to comply with a new Israeli defence establishment policy, which includes a formal registration process requiring, among other things, the submission of a list of the organisation’s employees operating in Gaza for prior security screening. This process is “intended to safeguard the integrity of the humanitarian system while preventing the infiltration of terrorist elements into the aid mechanism.”
• It adds that such refusal “raises serious concerns about their true intentions and the possibility of ties between the organisation or its employees and Hamas…By contrast, nearly 20 international organisations that complied with the law and completed the registration process are bringing aid into the Gaza Strip regularly and in full cooperation. As evidence of this, approximately 300 humanitarian aid trucks enter the Gaza Strip every day through organizations registered under the new mechanism.”
• Relating to the West Bank, Finance Minister Smotrich announced that he would advance the construction of 3,401 new housing units in the controversial area of E1 that connects Jerusalem to Maale Adumim in the east. 
• The plan has been suspended for the past 20 years largely due to international pressure as it would effectively cut territorial contiguity between Ramallah, Bethlehem and east Jerusalem.  Smotrich was explicit in stating, “The E1 construction plans bury the idea of a Palestinian state and continue the numerous initiatives we have taken on the ground in the framework of the ‘de facto sovereignty’ plan that we began to implement upon the establishment of this government.” 
• Despite the rhetoric, the timeline for this initiative remains unclear. Similar plans have been raised in the past, but never implemented.  

Context: Following the impasse of the talks in Doha, the renewed talks are currently being led by Egypt. 

• Historically, in previous rounds of fighting between Israel and Hamas over the last decade and a half, it has always been Egypt that has led the ceasefire efforts. The only exception being President Obama’s efforts in 2014 to co-opt Turkey and Qatar into the process, which in hindsight only extended the fighting. 
• The Egyptian government has taken a harsh stance against the Muslim Brotherhood inside Egypt, whilst both Turkey and Qatar ideologically identify with them, and by extension with Hamas.    
• Earlier this week US Secretary of State Marco Rubio blamed Britain and France for the collapse of the ceasefire talks as the symbolic call for recognition of a Palestinian state emboldened Hamas’ negotiating stance.     
• A report in the Washington Free Beacon asserted that the UN discreetly modified its classification metrics so that it could declare a famine in Gaza. The UN’s Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), has accused the IDF of causing a famine in Gaza. However they did not disclose that they changed metrics of measurement, in order to classify the situation in Gaza as a famine. In the past, the IPC has declared famine only after finding that 30% of children in an area are suffering from acute malnutrition, as measured by comparing their weight to their height. But for Gaza, the IPC lowered the threshold to just 15%, and instead of getting accurate weight and height measurements, they just measured the circumference of children’s arms, a method known to be far less precise.
• Meanwhile parts of southern Gaza remain a quasi-autonomous area under the control of the Abu Shabab clan with IDF protection. Part of a pilot programme includes the establishment of a civilian mechanism that operates a school, a public kitchen, a field hospital, a police station and a mosque.  
• Of significance, the curriculum being taught by the school is a combination of Saudi and Emirati curriculum which including tolerance of Jews and Israel.

Looking ahead: Israeli negotiators have not yet joined the talks in Cairo, but their departure will signal that a potential deal is still possible.     

• Hostage families and their supporters have called for a one day strike on Sunday. The strike is supported by several local municipal authorities, universities and the Israel Bar Association along with private companies and other organisations and institutions. The main labour union the Histadrut will not join the strike, but will support individual acts of solidarity.
• The IDF is continuing to develop their plans for an operation in Gaza City which are expected to be presented to the security cabinet next week.

What’s happened: Egypt has presented its latest proposal for a comprehensive ceasefire agreement to Hamas.

• The deal would see a release of all Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, a permanent end to the war in Gaza, a provision for the demilitarisation of Gaza, and a “symbolic exile” of surviving Hamas leaders in Gaza.
• Khalil al-Hayya of Hamas’ five man ruling committee based in Doha, arrived in the Egyptian capital earlier this week to discuss the Egyptian proposal. Earlier reports of the Egyptian proposal indicated that it had a provision for the “freezing” of Hamas weapons stores, though it was unclear if the proposed “freeze” aligned with Israel’s demand for Hamas to be disarmed.
• Amid ongoing tensions between the IDF’s Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir and senior cabinet figures surrounding the planned Israeli offensive into Gaza City, Zamir this morning approved tactical plans for the upcoming operation earlier this morning at a meeting of the General Staff, representatives of the Shin Bet, and other officers directly involved in the planned offensive.
• The Israeli Ministry of Health published a report on the condition of released hostages detailing both the inhumane conditions of their captivity and the long-term physical and psychological damage which they are still dealing with.
  • Hostages were held underground in the dark with at most one meal a day, consisting of food unfit for consumption. Haaretz reports that hostages suffered from “infectious diseases, respiratory diseases, hallucinations and severe pains, dehydration that caused them to lose consciousness, serious respiratory disturbances and skin conditions that usually continued after their release. Many of them still suffer from irreversible nerve damage, sometimes due to damage from improperly treated gunshot wounds incurred during the abduction.” 
  • The report also describes the physical and sexual torture the hostages endured, as well as the psychological trauma they still carry with them. Released hostages did not get to mourn family members who were murdered alongside them on October 7 when they were abducted, some not knowing until their release what the fate of their family members was.
  • The report was delivered to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Geneva.
• The ICRC President Mirjana Spoljaric met with a delegation of mothers of Israeli hostages earlier this week. Israeli officials indicate that the following the meeting, the ICRC seems to actually be making an effort to convince Hamas to allow it provide food and medicine for the hostages who have been held now for 677 days.
• Israel’s COGAT (Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories) published a report yesterday strongly pushing back against claims of widespread starvation and famine in Gaza. Hamas authorities had reported a sudden increase of malnutrition related deaths in July without releasing any identifying information.
• COGAT was able to identify only a few of the reported deaths, and of the ones it identified, the fatalities were people with genetic disorders, degenerative muscular disorders, or other longstanding health problems. Many of those were actually people who had, prior to the war, been treated in Israel for their ailments.
• From October 2023 until June 2025, Hamas had reported 66 deaths related to malnutrition. In the month of July alone, it reported it reported 133 malnutrition related deaths.
• COGAT also reported that 320 aid trucks entered Gaza yesterday for distribution by the UN and international aid organisation, along with three fuel tankers for the operation of essential humanitarian systems. 

Context: Following the failure of talks in Doha, the centre of gravity for hostage negotiations has now moved to Cairo. 

• While the Doha talks focused on the Witkoff plan for a 60-day ceasefire with a partial hostage release during which a permanent end to the war would be agreed on, the Cairo talks are said to focus on a comprehensive deal.
• Such a deal would see all hostages released and an immediate end to the war, without a ceasefire on the way. The implication of this would be that the two sides agree now on final redeployments rather than on partial withdrawals as a form of down payment. It would also mean the sides, under pressure from the US and Arab governments, agree now on a framework for the governance of Gaza at war’s end.
• The renewed urgency from Egypt emerges as governments in the region and elsewhere seek to prevent a large Israeli military offensive into Gaza City, as the Israeli Government has committed to carrying out in the coming weeks if no deal is reached.
• Yedioth Ahronoth quotes a senior Arab official as saying, “Everyone in the international community understands that it is impossible without the presence of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza. Hamas also understands that they will not be able to remain in Gaza. Some want to leave Gaza and go build a new life, which is why they are interested in exile.”
• The Egyptians and Qataris have not closed the door on partial deal entirely, according to Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty. Speaking at a press conference in Cairo, he said “We are working very hard now in full cooperation with the Qataris and Americans.”
• Prime Minister Netanyahu told an Israeli interviewer that Israel had despaired of reaching an agreement along the lines of the Witkoff proposal, and that the idea of a partial deal was “behind us.” Netanyahu now wants “to return everyone within a framework that ends the war, but an end to the war on our terms.” 
• Since the beginning of efforts to reach a ceasefire there has a been competition between Egypt and Qatar, with Israel traditionally preferring the Egyptians due to historical security cooperation and shared hostility towards the Muslim Brotherhood.
• However, Egypt’s role is somewhat contradictory. For decades the porous Egyptian – Gaza border allowed goods, including weapons to be smuggled into the enclave. In addition Egypt has refused to allow Gazan refugee’s to even temporarily escape the combat zone making them partly complicit in the humanitarian crisis that has ensued.

Looking ahead: The US plans on expanding its alternative aid mechanism, known as the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, in the coming weeks. US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee said yesterday that the initiative would grow from four sites to sixteen in total. 

• The UN will add Hamas to its “blacklist” of organisations and countries that have sexual violence as an act of war, in line with a draft distributed to UNSC members by UN Secretary-General António Guterres of a report to be approved on August 19. In a letter to Israel’s UN Ambassador Danny Danon, Guterres warned that Israel might also be included on a future blacklist due to reports of sexual abuse of prisoners unless Israel implemented measures stronger enforcement and disciplinary measures. Guterres’ letter and the implied threat to include Israel on a future blacklist sparked an outraged response from the Ambassador, who called it “absurd.”
• If Hamas accept the outlines of the latest proposal an Israeli delegation is expected to travel to Cairo in the days ahead.

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu held two rare press conferences yesterday for international and local media in which he explained his government’s decision regarding taking control of Gaza.

• He emphasised, “Our goal is not to occupy Gaza. Our goal is to free Gaza, free it from Hamas terrorists.”
• He continued, “The war can end tomorrow if Gaza, or rather, if Hamas lays down its arms and releases all the remaining hostages. Gaza will be demilitarised, Israel will have overriding security responsibilities. A security zone will be established on Gaza’s border with Israel to prevent future terrorist incursions. A civilian administration will be established in Gaza that will seek to live in peace with Israel.”
• “We have about 70 to 75 percent of Gaza under Israeli control, military control… the security cabinet instructed the IDF to dismantle the two remaining Hamas strongholds in Gaza City and the Central Camps. Contrary to false claims, this is the best way to end the war, and the best way to end it speedily.
• “We will do so by first enabling the civilian population to safely leave the combat areas to designated safe zones. In these safe zones they will be given ample food, water and medical care, as we have done before. And again, contrary to false claims, our policy throughout the war has been to prevent a humanitarian crisis, while Hamas’s policy has been to create it.
• “Since the beginning of the war, Israel has let in close to 2 million tons of aid! I know of no other army that has enabled such aid to go to the civilian population in enemy territory.” Netanyahu emphasised there is no, and has never been a starvation policy.  
• To combat Hamas looting of aid trucks, he outlined three steps:
  • Designating safe corridors for humanitarian aid distribution
  • Increasing the number of safe distribution points managed by the Gazan Humanitarian Foundation.
  • Air drops; by the Israeli Air Force and “we’re inviting others to join us.”
• Netanyahu described this as a “humanitarian surge,” coordinated with President Trump and his team.
• To the international media he clarified, “The purpose of this news conference is to puncture the lies…Hamas statistics, Hamas claims, Hamas forgeries, and Hamas photographs.” he then presented examples of three emaciated Gazan children that had been presented by the international media as suffering starvation, when in fact all three had pre-existing medical  conditions.  Adding, “I’m looking right now into the possibility of a governmental suit against the New York Times, because this is outrageous. Of course, the correction was postage-size, I don’t know where it was buried. But this is outrageous, these are the three most celebrated photos, and they’re all fake.”
• In a response to a question Netanyahu committed to allowing more journalist access into Gaza, but presumably only embedded with the IDF at this point.
• Also Sunday Netanyahu spoke to  President Trump. According to the PMO readout, they “discussed Israel’s plans for taking control of the remaining Hamas strongholds in Gaza in order to bring about the end of the war, the release of the hostages and the defeat of Hamas.”
• On the ground the IDF announced that they “struck the terrorist Anas Al-Sharif, who posed as a journalist for the Al Jazeera network.” The IDF said that intelligence and a large trove of documents found in the Gaza Strip confirmed that al-Sharif belonged to Hamas and served as the leader of a cell, “responsible for advancing rocket attacks against Israeli civilians and IDF troops. “
• On Sunday COGAT announced over 280 trucks entered Gaza. Whilst 300 trucks were collected and distributed by the UN and international organisations, as well as additional fuel tankers. In addition, 131 pallets of aid were airdropped in cooperation with the UAE, Jordan, Germany,  Belguim, Italy, The Netherlands and France.

Context: Netanyahu decided to hold the press conferences as a response to growing international criticism, particularly moves by the UK, French and German governments.

• The precise plans for the ”takeover” of Gaza City remain vague and with apparent contradictions. On the one hand the prime minister emphasised a speedy operation to end the war as quickly as possible. On the other hand, he had previously set the (symbolic anniversary) October 7^th deadline to evacuate the estimated 1 million Palestinian civilians currently residing in Gaza City. Moreover, the IDF has stated “safety before speed” that the operation will be slow and cautious so as to protect the soldiers and Palestinian civilians.
• A second concern relates to the fate of the 50 hostages, 20 of who are thought to be still alive, held in horrific conditions for 675 days. Following the recent video footage there is widespread concern for their lives. Furthermore, the IDF has in the past been reluctant to operate is areas that intelligence indicates they are being held, so as to not risk their lives.
• A third concern focuses on the role of the IDF reserves who will carry out the operation. The IDF is acutely aware of the strain on reservists and their families, particularly those with families during the school holidays. This will continue to be an issue as the Jewish High Holiday period begins in mid-September. This is compounded by the ongoing lack of participation by the vast majority of ultra-Orthodox men.
• Veteran commentator Sever Plocker writing in Yediot Ahronot highlighted a fourth concern, “beyond military, political and moral arguments… dire economic consequences, higher taxes, severe budget cuts, capital flight, investors’ flight, the shekel’s devaluation, a spike in inflation and other painful economic repercussions.”
• In parallel to the military preparations US Special Envoy Witkoff met with Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani. The latest efforts are thought to try and  reach a comprehensive deal that includes an end to the fighting, a full Israeli withdrawal, the release of all the hostages, disarming the Palestinian factions, exiling senior Hamas officials overseas and the establishment of a professional civilian leadership that will administer the Gaza Strip.

Looking ahead: The IDF Southern Command are expected to present their operational plan to the IDF Chief of Staff at the end of this week, who will then share with the political echelon.

• The first stage of implementation will be to encourage the civilian population to vacate the proposed combat zone, and the establishment of an alternative with enough food and medical provisions.
• This process could take up to two months, in which time if there is a possibility to reach an agreement the operation could be cancelled.              

What’s happened: The Prime Minister’s Office announced a “decisive majority” of the security cabinet “supported the Prime Minister’s proposal for defeating Hamas.  Declaring, “The IDF will prepare for taking control of Gaza City while distributing humanitarian assistance to the civilian population outside the combat zones.” The security cabinet adopted the five principles for concluding the war:

• The disarming of Hamas.
• The return of all the hostages, the living and the deceased.
• The demilitarisation of the Gaza Strip.
• Israeli security control in the Gaza Strip.
• The establishment of an alternative civil administration that is neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority.

• The first stage is expected to include the encircling all the remaining areas of the Gaza Strip that are controlled by Hamas, then conquering them. 
• The government is facing severe internal criticism. Leader of the Opposition Lapid responded saying, “all Netanyahu has to offer is more war, more dead hostages, more announcements of soldiers killed and tens of millions of taxpayer funds to be poured into the bizarre fantasies of Ben Gvir and Smotrich.”
• The Hostages and Missing Families Forum released a statement saying the, “decision to pursue occupation of the Gaza Strip means abandoning the hostages, while completely ignoring the repeated warnings from military leadership and the clear will of the majority of the Israeli public.”
• “By choosing military escalation over negotiation, we are leaving our loved ones at the mercy of Hamas, an evil terrorist organisation that systematically starves and abuses the hostages…. They don’t have any time left. We can’t leave them in the hands of these monsters any longer.”
• There were angry demonstrations Thursday night in Jerusalem and in Tel Aviv demanding that the government take immediate action to free all the hostages in exchange for ending the war. In Tel Aviv, demonstrators blocked the Ayalon Highway. The police said the demonstrators sprayed tear gas at police, attacked them and set fire to tires. Nine people were arrested.
• British Ambassador to Israel Simon Walters also warned it “would be a huge mistake” for Israel to occupy all of Gaza. Adding, “The IDF has done all that it can do in Gaza, it’s not going to achieve any more by fighting any longer.”

Context: Netanyahu decided to continue the fighting after concluding that hostage negotiations with Hamas are not feasible and that he does not believe there is any other way to achieve the war’s objectives.

• In the lead up to the cabinet decision IDF Chief of Staff Zamir’s preference was to avoid committing to a complete take over, instead endorsing a siege around the areas in which Hamas remains active in the Gaza Strip. However, the prime minister felt the plan submitted by the military was insufficient, and decided to go for the alternative of a full conquest. However, in an apparent compromise, Netanyahu endorsed a staged plan, beginning with laying siege to Gaza City and only then imposing a full conquest.
• It appears there is full agreement between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu on the need for an immediate and powerful military course of action in the Gaza Strip that will overcome the hurdle of Hamas’s intransigence.
• Both Israel and the US reached the conclusion that Hamas’s had toughened its negotiating position as a result of the heavy anti-Israel sentiment internationally and the effect of the videos of the starved hostages on Israeli public opinion – a combination Hamas hoped would lead to the Israeli government to capitulate to its demands.
• Between yesterday’s endorsement of the plan and its implementation is a window for Hamas to accept the terms of the Witkoff proposal, which has been accepted by Israel. It is also possible that finally Qatar will place the requisite pressure on Hamas to reach an agreement, though this is yet to happen.
• Throughout the last year and half there has been anger over Qatar’s duplicitous role both as facilitator of talks but also the main backer of Hamas. There was hope that under Trump more pressure would be brought on Qatar to cut their financial support for Hamas, close down their other sources of income and expel their leaders based in Doha, although so far none of this has happened.
• According to Palestinian sources, Hamas is taking the Israeli threat seriously, but there is no sign yet that they are prepared to modify its stance.
• Despite calls from right wing coalition partners, the cabinet decision focuses on security control and not annexation of the Strip. Ahead of the cabinet meeting Netanyahu told Fox News, “We don’t want to keep it. We want to have a security perimeter, but we don’t want to govern it. We don’t want to be there as a governing body.”
• Instead the prime minister said that Israel wants to “hand it over to Arab forces that will govern it properly, without threatening us, and giving the Gazans a good life.”
• The British Ambassador also justified the anticipated unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state, arguing that, “If there was a peace process, if the Palestinian Authority and Israeli government were in regular dialogue about a permanent settlement to the conflict, we would consider our timing…. but there isn’t a process and that’s the problem.”
• He sought to reassure, by adding, “I recognise that for many Israelis, the idea of a Palestinian state is concerning, but the UK is deeply committed to Israeli security.”
• Separately, The Times reported that Israel is considering cancelling security cooperation with the UK if London recognises a Palestinian state in September. Israeli intelligence expertise has previously helped the UK foil several terrorist attacks on British soil.
• For more context on the decisionmaking process behind this development, please see our morning briefing from yesterday.

Looking forward: The plan is expected to be implemented in several stages:

• In the first stage the residents of Gaza City will be evacuated over the next two months and moved to safe areas whist continuing to increase the flow of aid to those areas.    
• After that, the IDF will surround Gaza City and troops will operate inside.

What’s happened: Later today the Israeli cabinet will discuss a major new offensive operation in Gaza that could see the entire Strip conquered by Israeli forces. The decision comes on the heels of unusually public disagreements between the military and the civilian leadership and deep divisions in public opinion.

• Leaks to Israeli media indicate that the Cabinet will decide between two general directions. The first is a full conquest and ground troops occupation of the coastal enclave, while the second could be besieging its central area around Gaza City without a broader occupation.
• The deliberations around the new offensive have included an unprecedentedly public fight between civilian and military leaders, with leaks from the Government and the IDF creating a public impression that IDF Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir strongly opposes a complete occupation of the Strip. Media outlets normally supportive of the Prime Minister have been strongly critical of Zamir, whose appointment only a few months ago was broadly supported by the Prime Minister’s supporters following the resignation of the previous Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi, who had been blamed by the PM’s circle for failures on October 7th.
• Zamir himself has not made any public statement on the deliberations and has denied being behind leaks critical of the Government’s plans. Writing in Israel Hayom, military affairs correspondent noted the importance — and limitations — of the doubts attributed to Zamir: “The chief of staff is not a bureaucrat. He is a military officer. It is his responsibility to give his professional opinion and to fight for it. He  has a responsibility to protect the men and women who serve under him, as well a responsibility to uphold morality and ethics. If he thinks hostages will be killed—he has to say so. If he thinks a proposed course of action will cost the lives of many soldiers, he has to say so. If he believes many innocent Palestinians will be killed, he has to say so. If he thinks this decision will result in IDF soldiers being hunted down everywhere on earth, he has to say so. If he thinks a certain decision might lead to an arms embargo against Israel that would endanger the IDF’s ability to operate in future, he has to say so. If he thinks there is real danger that standing army and reservist troops might buckle under the strain, he has to say so. If he thinks that [imposing a] military regime [on Gaza] would create a burden on the IDF that is beyond the military’s ability to bear, he has to say so.”
• The Prime Minster briefed Opposition Leader Lapid and the military options under consideration. Following their meeting, Lapid said, “I told Netanyahu, conquering Gaza is a very bad idea. You don’t begin a move like that unless the majority of the public is behind you, but the Israeli people doesn’t want this war. We are going to pay very high prices for it.”
• Over 300 trucks of aid entered Gaza yesterday, keeping up with the pace of recent days. Hundreds are still queuing for UN pickup. Three tankers of fuel for the operation of essential humanitarian systems entered as well. Additionally, 110 pallets of aid were airdropped with the involvement of the UAE, Egypt, Jordan, Germany, Canada and Belgium.

Context: During the January-March 2025 ceasefire, Israel withdrew from nearly all of the Gaza Strip except for a small buffer zone along the border and a corridor by the Rafah crossing. As of now, Israeli forces occupy roughly 75% of the Strip.

• The remaining 25% is the centre of the Strip and includes areas that the IDF has not yet operated in during the war. It is believed that the hostages are being held there. Most Gazan civilians are there too. It is known to be intensively mined and booby-trapped.
• The first option being considered by the Cabinet tonight is for a full occupation of the Strip, including the remaining 25% in the centre. Such an operation is expected to take six months. It would begin with evacuation notices to the civilians inside the central camps and Gaza City and the preparation of an emergency civilian infrastructure, including field hospitals and displaced persons camps. The operation would begin with a conquest of Gaza City and later move to the UNRWA camps around Deir al-Balah, where most of the remaining hostages are believed to be held.
• Maariv reports that the IDF believes that in such an operation, the IDF would sustain dozens of casualties and that many, and possibly all, of the living Israeli hostages would be killed by their captors.
• In parallel, the US is expected to finance the expansion, and possibly even take over the distribution of humanitarian aid.  This could include expanding facilities of the GHF from four today to 16 in the coming months.
• The second option being considered would not include a full occupation of the remaining territory, but rather an encirclement of key Hamas sites and a siege. This option, reportedly preferred by the IDF, seeks to ensure the safety of the hostages during any offensive and avoid a repeat of the incident one year ago where six hostages were murdered by their captors when IDF forces unknowingly approached the tunnel where they were being held. This operation too would likely come with heavy losses to the IDF and a great risk to the hostages.
• The renewed interest in a military offensive began in the last two weeks following the breakdown of ceasefire talks at the end of July. For weeks until then, Israel and Hamas negotiated the details of the so-called Witkoff initiative, which would have seen a 60-day ceasefire during which half of the twenty living hostages would have been released in exchange for thousands of Palestinians prisoners and detainees held by Israel, most for terrorism offences. Hamas scuttled the talks abruptly in late July amidst a surge in international criticism of Israel, and both Israeli and American officials have concluded that it is not presently interested in any deal that would release hostages.
• Speaking at the UN on Wednesday Foreign Minister Saar said recent pressure on Israel during the sensitive days in the negotiations, “directly contributed to the assassination of the chances to reach a hostage deal and ceasefire. They prolonged the war.”
• Also shaping Israeli assessments are the perceived successes and failures of the offensive operation Israel has been conducting in the Strip since May. Hamas’ fighting capabilities have been severely degraded, but it has managed to turn the suffering of its civilians, as well as that of the Israeli hostages it holds, into net political gains. Writing in Maariv, Avi Ashkenazi reports that “military officials said that the IDF had racked up many achievements in the fighting in Gaza in the past 22 months. First among them, Hamas no longer constitutes a terrorist army. It is a group of terrorist squads that are now fighting a guerilla war without a central command, without supply lines and without ordnance. Furthermore, the IDF has surrounded Hamas’s troops in the refugee camps and in Gaza City, it has damaged Hamas underground network and has destroyed large parts of the tunnels that connected the network. The result has been that Hamas terrorists who wished to relocate were forced do so above ground.”

Looking ahead: The cabinet will meet tonight to discuss the two plans. A final decision may not be reached until early next week. A breakthrough in efforts to secure a hostage release would suspend progress toward a broad Israeli military offensive, but as of now, there are no indications of any such development. 

New BICOM research: On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched an attack on Israel. It was unprecedented in its scale, scope and brutality:

• 1,189 people were killed, including 815 civilians,
• 7,500 we wounded,
• 251 men, women and children were abducted, joining two living civilians and two dead soldiers already held by Hamas for over a decade.

The wounds — physical, emotional, and collective — remain open.

To date, 205 people have been rescued or released from Hamas captivity. 148 of the hostages returned alive, and 57 were deceased.

This BICOM’s report is a collection of testimonies of freed hostages giving a personal account of their experience in captivity.

What’s happened: Israel is reeling with anger and disgust at the latest brutal propaganda videos released by Hamas over the weekend.

• Hamas released two videos featuring 24 year old hostage Evyatar David. The first video did not include any statements, but his physical condition, severely emaciated, appeared grim with his bones jutting out of his body.
• The second video, showed David digging his own grave on orders from his captors. “I don’t eat. There’s barely any water,” said David, which he said was recorded on July 27. “This tin is for two days so that I don’t die,” he said, showing a small tin of food to the camera.
• In a script presumably dictated by his captors he says, “I have no idea whether there’s going to be food, I haven’t the faintest idea. I haven’t eaten in I don’t know how many days in a row, and I’ve been here in very-very bad shape for a very long time already.”
• In a third video, Palestinian Islamic Jihad released footage of the 21-year-old hostage, Rom Braslavski, who appeared to be gaunt and wept in the recording. Rom said, “Just give us food, if not for the Gaza Strip, then for the hostages.”
• The videos followed the visit of US envoy Witkoff who toured Gaza on Friday to personally witness the aid delivery system and later met with hostage families and consultations with senior Israeli officials. It now appears that the “Witkoff outline” is no longer on the table. Witkoff told the families they would now work on a comprehensive deal in which all of the hostages are to be released and the war ended. 
• In Beit Hanoun, in northern Gaza, the last of the Hamas fighters surrendered to troops from the Givati Brigade.
• Following questioning, the terrorists gave information about munitions warehouses adjacent to the tunnel shaft where they exited, leading troops to the warehouses. Large quantities of arms and materiel were found, including vests, rifle magazines, rifles, grenades and more. Supplies for an extended stay underground were also found in the tunnel, including food, water and hygiene supplies.
• Also over the weekend, the IDF demolished the main tunnel linking Beit Hanoun with Jabalya, Beit Lahiya and the northern reaches of Gaza City. It is estimated that dozens of Hamas terrorists were trapped in the tunnel.
• The military also said more than 130 targets were attacked around Gaza over the weekend.
• The IDF also said it had killed the terrorist Salah al-Din Za’ara, who served as the deputy commander of the Hamas Al-Furqan Battalion.
• In southern Gaza, forces killed terrorists and destroying terrorist infrastructure, including underground and buildings where terrorists operated and weapons were stored.
• Amid the ongoing fighting in Gaza, the Houthis continued to fire ballistic missiles at Israel. Sirens sounded on Friday evening in and around Jerusalem, and the Dead Sea area after a missile was fired from Yemen. The missile was intercepted by the Arrow 3 system. On Sunday the IDF intercepted a drone close to the Israeli – Egyptian border that was also launched from Yemen.

Context: Although hostage negotiations have not formally broken down, the sense in Israel is that there is currently no deal on the horizon, after Hamas hardened their negotiating positions coinciding with the British government and others increasing their pressure on Israel.          

• It is now understood that Prime Minister Netanyahu is working with President Trump and his team to draft a comprehensive new proposal that includes a deal to release all the remaining hostages and presumably end the war.
• The new proposal reportedly includes demands for the release of all remaining hostages in a single group and for Hamas to disarm. On the day after in Gaza, a US-led international administration is to be established in the Gaza Strip.
• If Hamas do not agree the US is expected to give Israel a free hand to operate militarily in the Gaza Strip.
• The horrific video footage of Evyatar David and Rom Braslavski is seen as proof that Hamas is deliberately starving the hostages in order to ratchet up pressure on Israel.   
• Israel now believes the dire humanitarian situation in the Strip actually helps Hamas, and has allowed a surge in the flow of humanitarian aid.
• According to the latest data from COGAT, in the past week over 23,000 tons of humanitarian entered Gaza and 1,200 trucks were successfully collected by the UN and international organisations.
• In addition, hundreds of pallets of humanitarian supplies were airdropped by international partners to help address urgent needs on the ground. In cooperation with Israel, the UAE, Jordan, Egypt, France, Germany, and Belgium facilitated 136 aid packages, containing food airdropped into Gaza.
• Addressing Hamas’s campaign of starvation, IDF Chief of Staff Zamir, said “The current campaign of false accusations of intentional starvation is a deliberate, timed, and deceitful attempt to accuse the IDF, a moral army, of war crimes. The ones responsible for the killing and suffering of the residents in the Gaza Strip is Hamas. IDF soldiers and commanders act with integrity and morality, in accordance with the IDF’s values and international law.”
• Separately, a group of countries including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and Qatar presented a document to the UN demanding that Hamas be disarmed and excluded from future governance of the Gaza Strip. The document represents welcome pressure now being applied on Hamas, including a condemnation of the attack on Israeli civilians on October 7. It also endorses the Palestinian Authority (PA) to take over future responsibility for security and civilian affairs.
• Relating to the British Government’s announced on unilaterally recognising the State of Palestine, Malcolm Shaw KC presented a series of arguments against unilateral recognition He argued:
  • Palestine doesn’t meet key Montevideo Convention standards, specifically lacking effective governance and a defined territory, due to internal division between PA and Hamas, and lack of territorial control.
  • Widespread recognition by states is politically significant but legally insufficient without UN Security Council approval or clear factual statehood.
  • Palestinians have the right to self-determination, but that alone doesn’t override legal thresholds for statehood.
  • Allowing declarations of statehood outside accepted criteria and procedures, even under self-determination undermines international legal order.

Looking ahead: The change to now focus on a comprehensive ceasefire plan – rather than a partial deal – will take time, as it requires resolving several difficult issues. These include the ratio and identity of Palestinian terrorists in Israeli jails to be released, the nature and geographical redeployment of the IDF, and the demilitarisation of the Strip. 

• The latter is understood to be part of a growing consensus that Hamas must agree to stop repairing / digging new tunnels, to stop the manufacture of missiles and explosives and to stop smuggling weapons under the Philadelphi Corridor from Egypt.      
• In light of the failure of the talks, the inner security cabinet will meet later this week to discuss next steps. The IDF has reduced its troop deployment and has long supported a deal. But if the government decides to continue fighting, Chief of Staff Zamir has recommended increasing operations and raids in parts of the Strip where the IDF has not operated so far, such as Gaza City and the refugee camps in the central Gaza Strip. These raids will be evaluated to avoid harming the remaining hostages.
• Defence officials anticipate that Hamas will release more videos of the hostages in captivity in an effort to ratchet up pressure on Israel.