Iran and their Proxies 11

Updated March 27, 2025

Weekend US air strikes in Yemen killed dozens

What’s happened: Described by CENTCOM as “powerful and decisive,” US air strikes continued overnight, expanding from Sanaa to the Al Jaouf and Hudaydah areas.

The Houthis have said that the current death toll stands at 53.
President Trump also warned Iran to “immediately” withdraw its support for the Houthis. His National Security Advisor Walz confirmed that the main target was the Houthi leadership.
US Defence Secretary Hesgeth pledged that America’s response would be “unrelenting” until the Houthis ceased their attacks, adding that “this campaign is about freedom of navigation and restoring deterrence”.
While denying that Tehran supported the Houthis, Major General Hossein Salami, a commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), threatened a “decisive” response if Iran was threatened, and referred to the Houthis as “the representatives of the Yemenis”.
The Houthis claim to have retaliated with a series of their own strikes against the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman with up to 18 missiles and a drone. The US has not commented on this matter, but it is a likely that – as in the past – the Houthis grossly exaggerated the impact of their attacks.
One missile fired from Yemen landed in Egypt close to the Sharm el-Sheikh resort in the Sinai Peninsula. No injuries, fatalities, or damage has been reported, and the IDF is currently investigating as to whether it was aimed at Israel.

Context: The US attacks follow Houthi threats to resume their longstanding attacks on what the group claims is “Israel-linked” shipping in and around the Red Sea in the event that the fragile ceasefire in Gaza did not hold.

These attacks began in November 2023, ostensibly in solidarity with Hamas and the people of Gaza during Operation Swords of Iron.
The Houthis claimed that they were maintaining what amounted to a naval blockade on Israel. Yet in practice, they were indiscriminately targeting almost all international shipping in and around the Red Sea, often under pretence that a particular vessel was “Israel-linked”.
In November 2023, the Houthis boarded and seized a British-owned cargo ship (the Galaxy Leader), and held its crew prisoner until January 2025. Its parent company is co-owned by an Israeli businessman.
Since then, the Houthis have attacked US warships 174 times, and commercial vessels 145 times. Approximately 12% of global shipping passes through the affected area, much of which was suspended for insurance reasons. This has caused significant disruptions, forcing shipping to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope causing increased transit times and associated costs.
Concurrently, the Houthis launched over 40 ballistic missiles and 320 drones at Israel, sometimes in what was claimed as a joint operation with Iran-backed Iraqi Shia militias.
These attacks caused limited casualties and damage, but had a significant impact on the Israeli economy, especially Eilat where they have forced the city’s port to close and declare bankruptcy in July 2024.
The strikes over the weekend mark the first US strikes on Yemen since President Trump took office in January, and follow his threats that “hell will rain down on you” unless the ceased their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.
Despite Tehran’s denials, the Houthis are widely viewed as Iran’s most important proxy in the Arabian Peninsula, and have benefited from training and weaponry from the Islamic Republic. They are an established part of the “Axis of Resistance”, and a key mechanism for Tehran to project influence against rival Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
While the Biden Administration took some military action against the Houthis, it was limited and predominantly defensive. Those few US and US-led air strikes had little deterring effect, and failed to prevent attacks on international shipping or Israel.

Looking ahead: While Israel has conducted its own sporadic air strikes in Yemen, it is hoped that the US will establish robust deterrence against the Houthis, thus preventing further attacks against Israel and international shipping in and around the Red Sea.

The Israeli Air Force has raised its readiness levels in anticipation of further Houthi drone or missile attacks against Israel in coming days. In the event of a significant attack, independent Israeli or joint US-Israeli strikes on Yemen are a realistic possibility.
Prior to the autumn of 2023, Israel’s intelligence collection efforts were predominantly focused on the West Bank, Gaza Strip, Syria, Lebanon, and Iran. Attacks by more distance enemies in Yemen and Iraq may refocus these priorities, and result in more direct collection efforts by the Israeli intelligence community rather than relying on products from CENTCOM.

January 3, 2025

IDF continues effort to demilitarise southern Lebanon, as Houthis attack again

What’s happening: The IDF continues to target Hezbollah’s military infrastructure within the provisions of the ceasefire agreement.

On Thursday the Israeli Air Force (IAF) struck two Hezbollah sites in Nabatieh that housed medium-range rocket launchers.
The IDF Spokesperson’s Office said, “As part of the enforcement of the understandings between Israel and Lebanon, prior to the strike a request was sent to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to neutralise the launchers that posed a threat to Israeli civilians and IDF troops. The launchers were struck only after the request was not addressed by the LAF.”
Earlier this week the IDF exposed extensive military infrastructure that Hezbollah had embedded in village of Naqoura, located on the ridge just above the Israeli coastal communities of Rosh Hanikra and Kibbutz Rosh Hanikra and adjacent to the main UNIFIL headquarters in southern Lebanon.
An IDF commander was quoted in the Israeli media saying, “When we scoured the village, we found unbelievable quantities of arms. There were warehouses, lookout points and military equipment in virtually every home.”
Another soldier is quoted saying, “Until a few days ago, there were several dozen different citrus trees here; we found ready launchers and weapons and ammunition hidden among the trees, hidden in a formation aimed directly at Israel… The rocket launchers were positioned close to the trees and under the branches; if we hadn’t physically entered, we wouldn’t have spotted them, either from the air or when driving by. We really had to enter the area and scour it; the closer we got to the UN headquarters and to Israel, you found more arms because it was closer to Israel. It felt like the UN was covering for them.”
Inside the houses in Naqoura, the IDF found explosive devices, rocket-propelled grenades and Kalashnikov rifles. The troops also located Burqan rockets, rocket launchers, mortars and other weapons.
One of the reasons the IDF had avoided operating in the area until the very last moment was the village’s proximity to the UNIFIL headquarters.
Elsewhere the IDF have also continued to expose underground tunnels, headquarters, arms warehouses, loaded launchers, trucks with launchers.
Last week, the IAF struck infrastructure that was used to smuggle weapons via Syria to Hezbollah at the Janta Crossing on the Syrian-Lebanese border.
Also on Thursday, Syrian sources reported an Israeli airstrike on a military facility near Aleppo.

Houthi attack: Once more in the early hours of the morning millions of Israelis took shelter following sirens as a result of another missile fired by the Houthis from Yemen.

The missile entered Israeli air space with shrapnel falling in the Modiin area. No injuries were reported.
Houthi Spokesman Hizam al-Assad wrote on X that the Yemeni people have the right to punish the people who are punishing children in Gaza. He wrote that the temporary Zionist entity will eventually disappear – God willing, it will be the Yemeni people who cause that to happen.

Operation Many Ways: The IDF have for the first time revealed details of their surprise attack on an Iranian-built precision guided missile factory built under a mountain in an underground facility in Syria that was on the cusp of becoming operational.

The site in Masyaf, west of Hama, was more than 200 km north of Israel and was attacked on the night of September 8^th.
Israeli intelligence had been monitoring the site for several years. It was targeted as it was about to become operational with the ability to produce hundreds of advanced missiles a year.
Under the cover of darkness, over 100 commandos operated inside the missile manufacturing site which was defended by dozens of aerial defence systems deep in the heart of Syria.
Within two-and-a-half hours, the troops captured documentation, destroyed the site and returned safely home.
This was the largest IDF raid, with troops on the ground, since the 1976 operation to rescue hostages in Entebbe International Airport.

Context: The ceasefire with Lebanon has been in place since 27^th November. Since then, and according to the terms of the agreement and part of the understandings with the US, Israel has continued to operate against pockets of Hezbollah resistance and its military infrastructure.

There have also been dozens of violations of Hezbollah still operating or trying to return to southern Lebanon. However there have not been any significant attacks on Israeli territory since the deal came into effect.
In some parts of southern Lebanon, the IDF appears satisfied that the LAF are deploying to prevent Hezbollah re-establishing a presence.
In other places this deployment has been slow, leading Israel to question whether they will be able to complete the withdrawal in the allocated 60 days.
As such, Israel is studying the option of keeping IDF troops deployed in a number of strategic sites in southern Lebanon even after the 60 days.
A second reason to remain is to have the required time to decommission the large quantities of Hezbollah weapons and infrastructure that are still being found on the ground.
The slow pace of the LAF deployment is explained by their overall weakness and the necessity to deploy larger and better trained troops than in the past.
A second explanation could be pressure being exerted by Hezbollah on the LAF.
Israel has lodged several complaints in recent weeks about the LAF’s slow deployment, and said that if Lebanon fails to meet the commitments it undertook in the context of the agreement between the countries, Israel would be forced to remain in southern Lebanon to protect its communities.
The strikes on the Syrian-Lebanon border attest to continued Iranian led efforts to maintain smuggling routes for weapons.
There is concern that Iran may try to circumvent these exposed routes and instead resort to flying weapons direct into Beirut airport that would pose a difficult dilemma for Israel how to respond.

Looking ahead: We are now over halfway through the initial 60 day ceasefire which will expire on 26^th January.

No decision has been made but the option of leaving IDF troops stationed in southern Lebanon will be explored and coordinated with the incoming Trump administration

December 23, 2024

Houthi Missile Strikes Tel Aviv Again

What happened: At least 16 people were injured in a missile strike on southern Tel Aviv in the early hours of Saturday morning.

The missile fired from Yemen landed in a children’s playground that was empty at the time, with damage caused to surrounding apartments.
For the second time in three days, millions of Israelis in the centre of the country were woken up by sirens in the middle of the night.
The military is investigating why Israel’s anti-missile defence systems failed to intercept the missile.
Yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu related to the attack saying, “Just as we have acted forcefully against the terror arms of Iran’s axis of evil, so too will we act against the Houthis. However, in this case, we are not acting alone. Like us, the US and other countries see the Houthis not only as a threat to international maritime navigation but to the international order as well.”
Addressing the Israeli public, he asked for “patience” in dealing with this threat, and “to continue showing the same resilience that you have shown up until now, and to strictly follow Home Front Command directives.”
While Israel has not yet responded to this latest attack, the US military struck a missile storage facility and a command-and-control facility in Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, on Saturday night. According to a CENTCOM statement, the strikes aimed to “disrupt and degrade Houthi operations, such as attacks against US navy warships and merchant vessels in the southern Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb and Gulf of Aden.”

Context: Unlike other Iranian proxies (primarily Hezbollah and Hamas) that directly threaten Israel, the Houthis also represent a threat to the wider interests of the US, UK and international community though their targeting of maritime trade.

The targeting of international shipping lanes has also badly damaged the Egyptian economy, with fleets forced to find alternative routes to avoid the Bab al-Mandeb straits and by extension the Suez Canal. Similarly, the southern Israeli port of Eilat has effectively been shut down.
Earlier this year, the US and UK conducted five joint naval and air strikes against the Houthis in response to their ongoing attacks against international cargo ships.
Houthi leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, last week declared that over the last 14 months they had fired 1,147 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles or drones.
According to Israeli figures, around 400 of those have been directed towards Israel (the vast majority of which have been successfully intercepted) while the rest targeted international ships.
Recent data suggests these attacks are increasing. According to the Alma Research and Education Centre, there have been 12 attacks so far in December, compared to a previous monthly average of five.
The Israeli assessment is that while the missile and drones are supplied by Iran, the Houthis act relatively independently.
Their motivation is to support Hamas and the Palestinian cause which is popular domestically and across the Arab world. Furthermore, their ability to disrupt international shipping lanes raises their international profile.
Yemen is one of the poorest countries in the world ranked 183^rd out of 191 countries with a per capita income of $477 a year (compared to $3,372 in the Palestinian territories). Two thirds of its approximately 30 million population live with food insecurity or hunger.
Israel faces substantial challenges in dealing with the Houthis, primarily due to the significant distance from Yemen (2,000km). As such, Israeli intelligence does not possess a bank of targets and find it harder to track and locate Houthi leaders who could also form potential targets.
The three Israeli strikes over the last year have focused on state infrastructure, such as fuel depots and the ports used to import the Iranian weapons.
These recent attacks raise speculation that Israel could choose to punish Iran for continuing to support and supply the Houthis.
The continued attacks also present an opportunity for Israel to increase its military coordination with regional allies like Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the Gulf states that also face threats from the Houthis and Iran.
In separate but related news, Arab media has reported that the Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq announced they are stopping their attacks against Israel. The decision was made in the framework of an agreement with the president of Iraq Al Sudani who has been applying pressure on the militias to cease attacks against Israel.

Looking ahead: As the Houthis appear to operate independently, it is feared they will continue to attack Israel.

Israel will be hoping that the incoming Trump administration will take a more forceful approach.

December 19, 2024

Israel strikes Yemen following attacks on Tel Aviv

What happened? The IAF attacked Houthi terrorist targets in several places in Yemen last night for the third time since October 7 2023 with dozens of combat, fueling and intelligence jets.

This included a strike in the capital Saan’a for the first time where a military camp and a large power plant in the southern part of the city were attacked. Media outlets in Yemen reported that many places in Sana’a and in Hodeidah suffered an electricity outage are in a blackout.
The strikes followed the firing of a ballistic missile by the Houthis towards Israel. IAF intercepting the missile with the long-range Arrow air defence system before it could cross into Israeli territory. Alarms were activated in several places in central Israel and a few people sustained light injuries on their way to shelter. Shrapnel caused vast damage in Ramat Gan, effectively demolishing a school.
The Lebanese Al Mayadeen news service reported that four attacks were carried out on the Hezyaz power plant in the southern part of the capital Saan’a, two on the Dhahban power stations to its north, four on Hodeidah Port and two on the oil facility at Ras Issa. Those reports state that nine people were killed.
The IDF said it “carried out a series of precision attacks on Houthi military targets in Yemen, including ports and energy infrastructure in Sana’a, which the Houthis have been using of their military operations..”
“The Houthis are conducting attacks against Israel in contravention of international law – and the Houthi regime constitutes a threat to the region’s peace and security,” said IDF Spokesperson Hagari.
The IDF also stressed that the regime in Iran “funds, arms and orders the Houthi’s terrorist activities.”
Defence Minister Katz warned the Houthis about further attacks. “I suggest to the Houthi leaders that they see, understand and remember: anyone who lifts a hand against the State of Israel, that hand will be cut off. Anyone who attacks us, will be attacked sevenfold. We will strike with might and will not permit this situation of firing and threats to the State of Israel to continue.”
Houthi politburo member Hezam al-Assad tweeted (once again in Hebrew) “Tel Aviv will not be safe as long as the siege and attacks on our people in Gaza continue.” Senior ranking Houthi official Nasr Al-Din also tweeted, “Yemen standing alongside Gaza is permanent and will not change, and Yemeni operations in support of Gaza will not stop. The response to Israeli aggression is inevitable.”

Context: The Houthis started operating in the early 1990s from the northern province of Sadat in Yemen as a religious revival movement of Shia Zaydi Islam who seized control of Yemen’s capital, Sana’a in 2014.

Their slogan is “God is great, death to America. Death to Israel, curse on the Jews, victory to Islam.”
Since Hamas’ attack against Israeli communities on October 7, the Houthis have fired 200 ballistic and 170 drones at Israel. They have also targeted about 100 merchant vessels with missiles and drones in the same period causing huge damage to global supply routes. The Houthis had launched 190 attacks between November 2023 and June 2024, affecting the interests of 65 states.
From 11 January to 30 May 2024, the US and UK conducted five joint naval and air strikes against the Houthis in response to their ongoing attacks on shipping with Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, and New Zealand providing non-operational support. Those strikes followed warnings by the UK Defence Secretary in 2023 that the UK was prepared to use military force to stop the Houthi attacks and a UN Security Council Resolution in January 2024 demanding a halt to them.
The US has also conducted a series of separate actions. On Monday, the US military’s Central Command said that it hit “a key command-and-control facility” operated by the Houthis in Sana’a, later identified as the al-Ardi complex once home to the government’s Defence Ministry.
Israel believes that weapons from Iran are transferred to the Houthis via the Hodeidah port.
Following the weakening of Iranian proxies Hezbollah in Lebanon and the fall of the Assad regime, the Houthis and popular mobilisation units in Iraq are Iran’s best options for causing damage to Israel.

Looking ahead: Israel hopes that these strikes will deter the Houthis from further attacks, with the damage to the ports making it harder for the group to receive Iranian arms shipments.

Negotiations with Hamas over a potential ceasefire and hostage release continue with negotiators believing the next few days could be critical.

November 4, 2024

Israel remains on high alert

Iranian threat: Israel remains on high alert for an Iranian attack after Ayatollah Khamenei threatened Israel with “a crushing response.”

There appears to be a consensus within the Iranian leadership, even among the ‘moderates’ over the need to respond, perhaps even stronger than the October 1st attack.
It is anticipated that they will wait until after the US election, but before inauguration. The Iranians are concerned that an imminent response would help Trump in the election.
Khamenei also hinted that their response may not necessarily be solely military, but could also include making advances towards nuclear proliferation.

October 28, 2024

Assessing Israel’s strike on Iran

Israeli and Polish air forces held a joint maneuver For the first time. Fighter pilots from the Israeli and Polish air forces will on Thursday March 15 2012 complete a week of joint exercises. The Polish dispatched a number of F-16 fighter jets which have been holding maneuvers alongside IAF F-16 and F-15s. The maneuvers are based in the Uvda Air Force Base near Eilat. Photo by Ofer Zidon/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** îèåñ çéì àåéø àååéø

Operational overview: Early on Saturday morning, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) struck 20 targets in three different areas inside Iran.

It is understood that the IAF successfully targeted Iran’s advanced long-range air-defence systems, several manufacturing sites for vital components of the Iranian ballistic missile programme, and storage sites for ballistic weapons.
The operation is considered one of the most complex missions the IAF has ever undertaken. It involved around 140 aircraft of various types, including those for the attack itself, intelligence gathering, and contingencies for rescue missions. Over half of the crews were reservists, and four members of the flight crew were women.
The strike was carried out in the early hours, with targets chosen to ensure no civilian casualties and only minimal military personnel losses.
Although Israel operated independently, the strikes were closely coordinated with the US.
As a result, Israel did not attack any nuclear or energy facilities, or symbols of the state, focusing solely on military targets.

Strategic impact: Israel has deemed this operation a success. It has significantly degraded Iran’s ballistic missile production capability, neutralised its air defences, and exposed the regime’s vulnerability to the Iranian public and the wider region.

For three hours after Israel had disabled Iranian air-defence systems, it had the ability to target any site it wanted.
The Iranians are believed to be reflecting on this vulnerability as they consider whether to respond.
Israel has incapacitated Iran’s Russian-made S-300 advanced air-defence systems. As Russia requires all available systems to defend against Ukraine, Iran is unlikely to be able to replenish these defences in the near future.
Initial estimates suggest that it could take Iran 2-3 years to reestablish capacity to build more ballistic missiles.
Iran can no longer rely on its chief proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, to retaliate against Israel. As a result of a year of conflict, both groups have been substantially weakened.
Israel considers this operation as a warning to Iran. It still has a bank of targets it can strike.
To emphasise this, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi said Sunday that the operation, “used only some of our capabilities. We can do much more. We hit strategic systems in Iran. This has great importance. And we will now see how matters develop. We are ready for all scenarios in all the theatres.”
Concurrently, the IDF continues to engage in operations in Lebanon and Gaza. While Israel is making progress in uprooting terror infrastructure on both fronts, it has come at a high cost with 23 soldiers falling in the last week.

Israel – US coordination: US officials appear satisfied with the operation. Although the mission was carried out solely by Israel, coordination with the US, particularly over overflight airspace, was crucial.

According to reports of a phone call last week between President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu, Biden had warned Israel not to target the nuclear or energy sectors.
Instead, the US encouraged Israel to respond strongly enough to deter further attacks while minimising the risk of further escalation.
The THAAD (Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence) battery is now deployed in Israel manned by US personnel for the first time ever.
Secretary of Defence Austin continues to speak regularly with Defence Minister Gallant, following the strike Austin once more reaffirmed the US “ironclad commitment to Israel’s security and support for its right to defend itself.” According to the Pentagon, “He told the Minister that Iran should not make the mistake of responding to Israel’s strikes, which should mark the end of this exchange.“

Internal criticism: The Israeli government faced criticism from within the Likud faction as well as the opposition for not taking the opportunity to strike Iran’s nuclear programme.

Leader of the Opposition Yair Lapid stated, “I congratulate the IAF for once again proving its operational capabilities of the highest level in the world and its aerial superiority. Israel’s enemies know this morning that the IDF is strong, can attack powerfully, and reach anywhere. The decision not to attack strategic and economic targets in Iran was mistaken. We could have and should have exacted a much higher price from Iran.”
The government was cautious, given that it was already engaged in conflicts on two fronts, and was less inclined to open a new major conflict. However, following the Iranian attack three weeks ago, which included 180 ballistic missiles, Israel felt compelled to respond.

Diplomatic initiatives: Following two months of no talks, Mossad director Barnea, arrived in Doha, to begin talks with the director of the CIA, Burns, and Prime Minister of Qatar, Al Thani with a view to revisit parameters to enable the release of the 101 hostages now held for 388 days.

Not to be outdone by Qatar, Egyptian President Sisi has proposed a ten-day cease-fire in Gaza to exchange four Israeli hostages and an unspecified number of Palestinian prisoners in order to kickstart more substantial negotiations.
Prime Minister has directed Sin Bet director Bar to engage with Egypt to improve the terms. All this without it being clear if Hamas will consent to a deal.
US envoy Hochstein is expected to arrive in Israel tomorrow to see if there scope to reach a ceasefire in the north.

Looking Ahead: Israel remains on high alert, waiting to see if Iran will respond militarily.

The current prevailing view in Israel is that Iran will respond, as the regime cannot afford to appear weak, both externally and domestically.
If Iran does retaliate, it risks leaving itself vulnerable to further attacks.
Regardless, with Iranian air defences down, Israel may choose to strike more targets again

October 26, 2024

Israel launches retaliatory strikes on Iran

Overnight, Israel conducted a significant number of airstrikes against military targets across Iran in a long awaited reprisal for the missile and drone attacks in April and earlier this month. Strikes were reported in the Tehran, Karaj, Isfahan and Shiraz areas.
Tehran has said that it has a “duty” to defend itself, with Iranian news sources reporting that two soldiers were killed with no further details being offered.
It is understood that Israel provided Tehran with advance warning of the attack through several third parties, including Russia according to Sky News Arabia.
According to Axios, the strikes occurred in three waves. The first wave focused on degrading and destroying Iran’s aerial defence system, with the second and third targeting missile and drone bases as well as weapon production sites.
It was also reported that Israeli planes struck Iran-backed targets in Syria.
In a statement released this morning, the IDF’s Spokesman, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said: “The retaliatory strike has been completed, and its objectives have been achieved…[targets] included missile manufacturing facilities used by Iran in its attacks on the State of Israel over the past year. Simultaneously, we targeted Iran’s surface-to-air missile arrays and Iranian aerial capabilities that were intended to restrict Israel’s aerial freedom of operation in Iran. Israel now has broader aerial freedom of operation in Iran”.
The IDF has confirmed that there have been no changes to Home Front Command guidelines to civilians.
The Times of Israel is reporting that “Iran confirmed an Israeli attack had targeted military sites in the capital Tehran and other parts of the country, but said it had caused limited damage and that air defence systems had successfully countered much of the attacks”.
Commenting on the strikes, Prime Minister Starmer has said “I am clear that Israel has the right to defend itself against Iranian aggression. I’m equally clear that we need to avoid further regional escalation and urge all sides to show restraint. Iran should not respond.”
The Biden administration has confirmed that it was notified about these strikes in advance, but did not participate in them in any way. A US official has said that if Iran retaliates, the US would be ready to again defend Israel against any attacks.
Speaking on the record, US National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett told reporters that “We urge Iran to cease its attacks on Israel so that this cycle of fighting can end without further escalation…Their response was an exercise in self-defense and specifically avoided populated areas and focused solely on military targets, contrary to Iran’s attack against Israel that targeted Israel’s most populous city”.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have both condemned these strikes, albeit with Abu Dhabi not explicitly naming Israel in its statement. Jordan has also confirmed that no jets were allowed to use the country’s airspace during the strikes.
Observers are now considering what Iran does next. A limited response would effectively allow for de-escalation, thus ending the tit-for-tat cycle of violence. However, anything that endangers Israeli citizens, would elicit another significant response

April 21, 2023

Israel deepens ties with two of Iran’s neighbours

Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen visited both Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan this week, in a move to deepen Israel’s growing ties with the Caucasus and Central Asian regions.

Cohen went first to Azerbaijan, where he was accompanied by 20 representatives of the Israeli cyber, defence, homeland security, water management, and agriculture sectors. The delegation met with representatives of both the private and governmental Azeri sectors.
Discussions were also held on connecting Israel’s natural gas deposits to Azerbaijan’s pipeline, increasing the potential for delivery of Israeli gas to Europe.
Azeri officials told Cohen of the country’s desire to expand Israeli imports to include the cyber and solar energy fields. Agreements were also reached which will see the two countries cooperate on space exploration.
After their meeting, Cohen thanked President Ilham Aliyev for the opening of the Azeri embassy in Tel Aviv last month and confirmed that they had discussed “our shared strategic regional challenges, especially regional security and the fight against terrorism.”
Cohen then proceeded to Turkmenistan, becoming the first Israeli Foreign Minister to visit the Central Asian state in 29 years.
Yesterday Cohen formally opened Israel’s first permanent embassy in the capital of Ashgabat, also meeting with President Serdar Berdimuhamedow.
According to the Foreign Ministry, they also discussed expanding cooperation in cyber-tech, agriculture, and water technology.
“Turkmenistan is an extremely important country in Central Asia and an energy powerhouse in a strategic location,” said Cohen. “The opening of our permanent embassy today strengthens the relationship between the two countries.”

Context: Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are of high strategic importance, both for their location and energy resources.

Israeli-Azeri ties have been deepening for some years, Cohen’s visit following the trip made by then Defence Minister Benny Gantz last October.
Azerbaijan has become more publicly open about its ties with Israel in recent years, breaking a tradition of opacity based on a reluctance to antagonise its Iranian neighbour.
In opening its Tel Aviv embassy, and recently appointing its first permanent ambassador, it became the first majority Shiite Muslim state to do so.
Commercial ties between the two countries are mutually significant. Israel imports 30% of its oil from Azerbaijan, while Israel provided 69% of Baku’s major arms imports from 2016-2020: 17% of Israel’s arms exports over the period.
Israel also provided valuable support to the Azeris during the 2020 Second Nagorno-Karabakh War with Armenia, after which Azeri-Iranian tensions increased, with Tehran carrying out provocative military exercises on the Azeri border.
Multiple reports have suggested that the Azeris grant Israel use of its territory for the launching of reconnaissance missions into Iran, and that any future Israeli strike on the Iranian nuclear programme could benefit from a similar Azeri base.
Israel has operated a temporary embassy facility in Turkmenistan for the past ten years.
“This is a visit to the lion’s maw, a country that is between Russia and Iran, and everything that that implies,” said one member of Cohen’s diplomatic party.
Moscow’s influence in Central Asia, which continued to be considerable even following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, has shown signs of decreasing in the last year to eighteen months.
None of the Republics have backed its invasion of Ukraine and all have complied with sanctions on the Putin government.
Turkey, with whom Israel has a complex relationship, is another key regional player, enjoying close linguistic-cultural and political ties with the Central Asian states, coordinating relations through the five-member Organization of Turkic States.
With Europe eager to divest from Russian energy, Turkey is also seen as a key gateway to supplying the continent with both oil and natural gas from alternative sources, including both Israel and Central Asian and Caucus states like Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Any advances to access to the gas pipeline must go through Turkey.
Israel’s desire to supply Europe has been hampered by technical and diplomatic hurdles since the discovery of Israeli gas fields in the Mediterranean
Israel and Turkmenistan established diplomatic relations 30 years ago, and the new embassy is now Israel’s third in Central Asia, joining those in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
The opening of a permanent embassy in Ashgabat is of symbolic importance. Located a mere 15 kilometres from the Iranian border, the new embassy becomes Israel’s closest diplomatic mission to the Islamic Republic.
Notably, ambassadors from other states united by concern over Iran, such as the United Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan and the US, were present at the embassy opening.
Although ties remain stronger with Tehran than they do in Azerbaijan, the last few years have seen Turkmenistan pivot more towards Iran’s rivals in the Gulf States, with several of whom Israel enjoys increasingly close relations.
Turkmenistan is a virtually closed state, regarded by human rights observers as a repressive dictatorship and notable for widescale abuses and corruption.
Like the other Central Asian states, it continues to face the effects of Islamist terror, with a number of its citizens joining both al-Qaeda and Islamic State in recent years.
The return of the Taliban to neighbouring Afghanistan has only heightened concerns about the Jihadi influence, and in December 2022 Israel hosted a delegation from the Central Asian states to share knowledge on border and cyber security.

Looking ahead: In a sign of the high value placed on the Azeri relationship, Israeli President Isaac Herzog is likely to visit Azerbaijan by the end of May, with the Azeri Foreign Minister also likely to make a return visit to Israel soon.

Berdimuhamedov indicated that he was considering following Azerbaijan in ordering the opening of a Turkmenistan embassy in Israel soon.

April 17, 2023

Iran’s exiled Crown Prince to arrive in Israel today

What’s happening: Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah, announced last night that he is visiting Israel this week, “to deliver a message of friendship from the Iranian people.”

He wrote on twitter that he will “engage Israeli water experts on ways to address the regime’s abuse of Iran’s natural resources and pay respects to the victims of the Holocaust on Yom HaShoah.”
Adding, “I want the people of Israel to know that the Islamic Republic does not represent the Iranian people. The ancient bond between our people can be rekindled for the benefit of both nations. I’m going to Israel to play my role in building toward that brighter future.”
He is formally being hosted by Intelligence Minister Gila Gamliel, who praised the “brave decision” to visit. She added, “The Crown Prince symbolises a leadership different from that of the Ayatollah regime, and champions values of peace and tolerance, in contrast to the extremists who rule Iran. Our nations have enjoyed good relations for thousands of years since the time of Queen Esther who thwarted the evil Haman’s plot to destroy the Jews in Persia. Today, we are taking the first step in rebuilding the relationship between our nations.”
Crown Prince Pahlavi said, “The Iranian people aspire to a government that respects its heritage, with the preservation of human rights and respect for religious and cultural diversity, among other things, through the restoration of peaceful and friendly relations with Israel and Iran’s other neighbours. Millions of my compatriots still remember living alongside their Jewish-Iranian friends and neighbours, before the Islamic Revolution tore the fabric of our society apart. They reject the regime’s murderous anti-Israel and antisemitic policies and long for cultural, scientific and economic exchanges with Israel. A democratic Iran will seek to renew its ties with Israel and our Arab neighbours. In my opinion, that day is closer than ever.”

Context: The Crown Prince is the most senior Iranian figure to ever publicly visit to Israel.

Since the Islamic Revolution of 1979 he resides in the US.
Amid the Iranian protests he has called for a peaceful revolution that would replace authoritarian Islamic rule with a parliamentary monarchy.
In an interview with Israel Hayom in 2021, Pahlavi said he believed that the majority of the Iranian people see the Islamic republic’s track record in the global theatre as a failure, and would therefore be happy to make peace with the Jewish state.
Iran recognised Israel as a state in 1950 and maintained diplomatic representation in each other’s counties until 1979. In that time, diplomatic relations extended to economic cooperation and even limited security ties. All that ended abruptly in 1979 when Ayatollah Khomeini declared Israel the “enemy of Islam.”

Over the weekend: Rallies were held throughout Iran as the latest example of the current regime calling for Israel’s destruction, orchestrating international Quds Day.

In Jerusalem, Friday passed relatively peacefully, however the police declared they prevented eight terror incidents in the last few days.
According to the Israeli Police, a record breaking 130,000 Muslim worshipers entered the Temple Mount, up from 80,000 last year.
Hamas leader Sinwar addressed a large rally in Gaza which included a video link up with Iran’s current President.
Hezbollah’s leader Nasrallah marked the occasion with a speech from his bunker warning Israel not to continue its regular strikes in Syria. He also related to recent events of rapprochement within the Arab world and explained it was partly a result of US weakness and withdrawal from the region.
There were minor protests on the Lebanese border in the north, but Hamas’s threatened rocket attacks did not take place.

Looking ahead: The Crown Prince will take part in the official opening ceremony to mark Holocaust Martyrs’ and Heroes’ Remembrance Day.

He will visit a water desalination plant in order to understand how Israel’s advanced water technologies could help the Iranian people.
He will also visit various religious sites including the Western Wall in Jerusalem and the Baha’i Gardens in Haifa, where he will also meet members of the community as well as meet Jewish Iranian ex-pats.
Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh is set to meet with officials in Iran’s rival Saudi Arabia today, in the first such visit by a Hamas leader in several years. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas will also later visit Riyadh, and meet with both the Saudi king and Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman.

March 3, 2023

IAEA says Iran nuclear progress accelerating

Information from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) this week revealed that Iran’s progress towards a nuclear weapon has once more accelerated.

The nuclear watchdog confirmed that inspections had found uranium particles enriched up to 83.7% in Iran’s underground Fordow nuclear site.
It was also revealed that Iran’s total enriched uranium stockpile stood, as of February 12, at 3,760.8 kilograms, some 18 times in excess of the limit imposed by the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement between Iran and world powers.
Inspectors also discovered, on January 21^st, that two cascades of IR-6 centrifuges at the facility had been configured in a “substantially different” form from that previously declared by Iran.
Visiting Berlin, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen called on the international community to pursue a dual approach of snap-back sanctions and “to have a credible military option on the table as well.” “This is the time…. This is the time to take steps. This is the time to do actions to prevent Iran to achieve a nuclear weapon,” he told Western allies.
In a Wednesday press briefing, US State Department spokesman Ned Price said that while Washington continues to favour a diplomatic solution, it was also “very clear” that it would, “through all means necessary, ensure that Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon.”
US Undersecretary of Defence for Policy Colin Kahl told a House Armed Services Committee hearing on Tuesday that Iranian progress towards a bomb has been “remarkable”.
The increase to 83.7% uranium enrichment moves Iran closer to the weapons-grade threshold of 90%.
Though inspectors have yet to confirm if this detection is the result of design or accident, as Iran claims, Iran admits to a programme of enrichment to 60% at two nuclear sites.
For nearly two years, Tehran has hampered inspections efforts, including by the removal of monitoring cameras at nuclear sites.
Kahl’s testimony concluded that Iran’s “breakout” time to sufficient uranium enrichment to weapons grade now stood at 12 days.
“Back in 2018, when the previous administration decided to leave the JCPOA, it would have taken Iran about 12 months to produce… one bomb’s worth of fissile material. Now it would take about 12 days,” he said.
The E3 European states – the UK, France, and Germany – share Israeli and US concern at Iranian nuclear acceleration. E3 Foreign Ministers met with US counterpart Anthony Blinken at a side-line meeting at the recent Munich Security Conference, while a joint E3-US statement from early February noted that increased uranium enrichment “carries significant proliferation-related risks and is without any credible civilian justification.”
Despite the reduction in breakout time, both Israeli and US intelligence estimate that once the 90% threshold is reached, it will still take Iran between one and two years to build a nuclear warhead capable of forming a ballistic missile.
CIA director Bill Burns said in an interview last weekend that the US remained unsure if Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had made the formal decision to resume a nuclear weapons programme.
On Wednesday, former IDF intelligence head Tamir Hayman disagreed with Burns’ assessment.
Speaking at an INSS conference, Hayman said that Burns had erroneously applied a “Western” decision-making paradigm to Iran: “We can’t just go based on once we see an order from Iran’s supreme leader that only then will we see a nuclear” weapon.
Away from the nuclear issue, Maj. Gen. Oded Basiuk, head of the military’s Operations Directorate, revealed this week that Iran had twice attempted to attack Israeli-linked vessels in the Arabian Sea during the past month.
The British navy also announced yesterday that in late February it had seized anti-tank missiles and fins for ballistic missile assemblies likely headed to Houthi rebels in Yemen from Iran, during a raid on a small boat in the Gulf of Oman.
UK Minister of State for Security Tom Tugendhat last week confirmed the assessment of Iranian journalist Catherine Perez-Shakdam that Iran is preparing to target Diaspora Jews in the event of an Israeli strike on the Islamic Republic.
“They wanted to have a better understanding so they would know how to strike and where, so that if Israel ever dared to attack Iran, the Diaspora would have a very nasty surprise,” said Perez-Shakdam.
“We know that the Iranians are using non-traditional sources to carry out these operations, including organized criminal gangs. They are paying criminal gangs to conduct surveillance,” said Tugendhat.
In a recent BICOM briefing, Iran expert Behnam Ben Taleblu noted that despite Western condemnation of its support for Russia in its war with Ukraine, Iran is growing more assertive and confident internationally and is embracing the risk inherent in both its nuclear aggression and weapons proliferation.
On proliferation, Ben Taleblu cautioned that missions to degrade the supply, such as that widely attributed to the Mossad in Isfahan recently, could not prevent the accumulation of Iranian intelligence and expertise stored online.
Last week saw the Israeli Defence Ministry’s 2023 annual work plan conference, with participants including Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, Ministry Director General Maj. Gen. (Res.) Eyal Zamir and the head of the Ministry’s Political-Security Division, Brig. Gen. (Res.) Dror Shalom discussing Israel’s military options in preventing an Iranian nuclear weapon.

Israeli and US officials have confirmed that Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer and national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi will visit Washington early next week for discussions with US national security adviser Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.

IAEA head Rafael Grossi is set to meet with Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran tomorrow, in an effort to “reset the relationship at the highest level”.

LATEST

Gaza talks stall over Hamas disarmament

US strikes Iran as Israel intensifies operations in Lebanon

Schools in Israel reopen

Israel responds to Iranian escalation

New Israel-Lebanon ceasefire sets path for staged IDF withdrawal

Ultra-Orthodox draft protests escalate with attack on judge’s home

Iran and their Proxies

Key background

Weekend US air strikes in Yemen killed dozens