In this episode, Daniel J. Levy speaks with Oz Noy, a former senior security official, about Israel’s current strategy in Gaza and the prospects for a ceasefire with Hamas.
In the conversation – recorded during a media briefing hosted by BICOM – Oz Noy unpacks the tension between Israel’s declared objective of dismantling Hamas and the parallel goal of returning the remaining hostages. He assesses the security risks of a potential prisoner release, the strategic leverage of hostage diplomacy, and the role of Egypt and other regional powers.
Oz Noy served as a divisional head in Shin Bet (ISA – Israel Security Agency), equivalent in rank to a Major General in the IDF, before retiring in 2020. He now lectures at Reichman University in Tel Aviv.
Transcript
(This transcript has been automatically generated by AI — please excuse any potential errors.)
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Daniel J Levy: Hello and welcome to the Bicon. Podcast I’m Daniel J. Levy, programs manager. And today is 3rd of July 2025. My guest is Oznoi, a career shimbet officer, who retired as a divisional head so equivalent level 2 major general in the Idf. In 2020. He is now a lecturer at the Reichman University in Tel Aviv.
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Daniel J Levy: Thank you for joining me, and to open our conversation. Perhaps you could introduce yourself a little further beyond what I did, and also maybe explain a little bit about Israel’s current security situation, reference, the possibility of an imminent ceasefire in Gaza.
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Oz Noy: Thank you very much for inviting me to this platform. Appreciate it.
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Oz Noy: As the Daniel said as they, I retire. The id the I am.
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Oz Noy: I say, sorry. 4 years ago I my last position was the head of the what we call then it been changed, and since then the head of the Israeli and the broad division. I was responsible of all the Israeli Arabs. All the Isa targets abroad. I grew up in the Palestinian arena as a field officer
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Oz Noy: and
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Oz Noy: Most of my career I made in in the field the positions. Only one position was the
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Oz Noy: in the I say headquarter.
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Oz Noy: And so my expertise, especially within the Palestinian Palestinian arena.
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Oz Noy: And to your question we’re facing now another option, another possibility for a ceasefire or some kind of
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Oz Noy: a deal.
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Oz Noy: Unfortunately, the as far as I see it, and I’m not familiar with the intelligence material since I retired. So all my knowledge is from from the media.
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Oz Noy: but as far as I see it.
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Oz Noy: unfortunately, the future within the within the Hamas in Gaza strip is very blur, because the Israeli government
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Oz Noy: put a goal, a definite victory on the Hamas, which means that
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Oz Noy: I don’t know what it what it means, a definite victory on Hamas, on ideology on thousands and thousands Hamas members with weapons, with Rpgs, with Klatchnikovs, and so on in Gaza strip.
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Oz Noy: And I really don’t know if someone know
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Oz Noy: what it means what a definite victory in Gaza, in Gaza strip means.
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Oz Noy: And, on the other hand, we have those hostages in in Gaza Strip.
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Oz Noy: and, as as you know, as I know, until the last week we had 2 main major goals.
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Oz Noy: the 1st one by the this priority.
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Oz Noy: just like the Government, the Israeli Government or the Israeli Security Cabinet defined it.
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Oz Noy: A definite victory on Hamas, and the second one
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Oz Noy: should be to release the whole. All the hostages, the death, and the live hostages.
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Oz Noy: I really don’t know how they can do it logically.
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Oz Noy: How can you erase Hamas? Existence in in Gaza Street.
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Oz Noy: and on the other military in military way, and, on the other hand.
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Oz Noy: to bring back all the all the hostages. I think there is some kind of oxymoron in this definition.
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Oz Noy: and I think that this is one of the reasons, one of the reasons that we are almost 2 years
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Oz Noy: in in Gaza Strip, and no one. Yet no one can see the the light, even small light.
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Oz Noy: to where it goes and how we are going out from this from this situation.
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Oz Noy: So I hope that we will face another ceasefire. Another another deal.
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Oz Noy: I hope that the goals, the priority of the goals, will be changed.
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Oz Noy: because I I think I believe that part of the or the main leverage to and to naturalize
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Oz Noy: Hamas influenced the military capabilities and the political influence
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Oz Noy: in Gaza strip the main leverage today. To do that is not a military leverage
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Oz Noy: is to bring all hostages back home, and I think once Hamas will be left in Gaza street
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Oz Noy: without the hostages.
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Oz Noy: It will be a completely different situation.
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Oz Noy: Internal situation in Gaza strip within the Hamas, or within the Palestinian, and people in Gaza Strip.
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Oz Noy: So I think that the main leverage to bring some kind of
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Oz Noy: solution, some kind of reasonable end to this conflict or to this war with Hamas in Gaza strip
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Oz Noy: is 1st to bring all hostages back home, then to deal with Hamas.
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Oz Noy: Hamas army, and then to deal with Hamas governance in in Gaza trip.
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Oz Noy: That’s how I see it. I think that we are way.
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Oz Noy: Still. Now, according to the to the government goals and the and the strategy, I think that unfortunately we are a little bit away from
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Oz Noy: from seeing some kind of reasonable solution
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Oz Noy: with with Hamas in Gaza strip.
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Daniel J Levy: And if we do have a ceasefire that moves forward, involving some kind of large scale prisoner exchange. What kind of factoring do you think Shimbet will be doing for the security risks associated with releasing dangerous Palestinian terrorists, convicted terrorists. And how do you think a future Sinwa situation can be avoided?
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Oz Noy: I think that the involvement of the Isa is in 2 ways 2 main ways. The 1st one is the military. It’s helped the military effort with precise
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Oz Noy: and very valuable intelligence that the Isa can bring on Hamas members, especially the
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Oz Noy: the leaders of Hamas, or main figures that hold the main capabilities in in the Hamas army.
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Oz Noy: and the other one is with the negotiations, with with Hamas.
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Oz Noy: especially through the Qataris and the Egyptian.
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Oz Noy: I think that the Isa has a very good relations with the Egyptians, and we can. The Isa can leverage
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Oz Noy: few things with the Egyptians towards Hamas
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Oz Noy: in in Gaza strip. We did that all the last 2020 years. I think that this is one of the
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Oz Noy: and
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Oz Noy: the the edges that the Isa has in this effort. So I see the Isa in 2 main efforts, the military intelligence, military effort, and help, the negotiations
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Oz Noy: to bring as much as hostages that we can bring back home.
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Daniel J Levy: Thank you for that. One of the themes that we’ve been hearing a lot is the day after. What does Gaza look like in a post Hamas era. And who should be ruling Gaza? What
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Daniel J Levy: would Shimbet or the Israeli intelligence, or sort of the domestic parts of the Israeli Intelligence Community be thinking about such an arrangement, and how could that possibly be differing from the Idf. Say.
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Oz Noy: So again, I don’t know. What are the
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Oz Noy: What are the current plans or strategy?
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Oz Noy: The I say strategy for this very main, big, huge.
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Oz Noy: important question, just to remember that at the beginning of this war, at the beginning of 2024, I believe, somewhere around March, April 2024, the Isa and the Idf.
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Oz Noy: They wanted to bring this very important, very strategic question to the Security Cabinet, and they did together.
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Oz Noy: a very deep and wide thinking, and to bring to the table some kind or several reasonable solutions.
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Oz Noy: who should be take over after after Hamas.
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Oz Noy: And just to remind you. This discussion was never made because of yeah.
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Oz Noy: that the Prime Minister didn’t want to discuss this this question.
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Oz Noy: as far as I know, until today.
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Oz Noy: So, this is, this is again one of our, I think, strategic problems that
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Oz Noy: we don’t know. Where is the the door that will lead us
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Oz Noy: to the to some kind of reasonable solution.
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Oz Noy: With the Hamas in Gaza strip.
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Oz Noy: There is no, as far as I see it, as far as I know, and familiar with the Palestinian arena.
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Oz Noy: there is no good solution, there is no good solution.
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Oz Noy: there is no even reasonable solution.
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Oz Noy: We have only bad solutions.
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Oz Noy: This is the reality.
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Oz Noy: So in this reality I believe that we should take the less bad solutions
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Oz Noy: solution that we have on the table.
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Oz Noy: And again, according to to my expertise within the Palestinian arena more than 30 years.
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Oz Noy: I don’t believe that there is any option, any options that someone else beside Palestinians can rule Gaza Strip.
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Oz Noy: I think that Gaza strip. It’s the most complicated area in the world.
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Oz Noy: and I don’t believe that there is any chance that someone.
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Oz Noy: even if it will be a a, some kind of Arab organization.
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Oz Noy: Qataris, Egyptians, Arabs, Swedians, whatever. I don’t believe that they have any chance to rule and to run
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Oz Noy: and the Gaza strip for a reasonable time
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Oz Noy: that that will take a Gaza strip out of this this very complicated solution.
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Oz Noy: So in this, under this assumption my assumption.
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Oz Noy: I think, that we should build some kind of Palestinian organization
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Oz Noy: that will take over a Gaza strip that will run Gaza, strip all the
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Oz Noy: or I will say before the security responsibility
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Oz Noy: for the next years. I don’t know how many, 5, 1015 it depends, but as far as I see it. It’s not few years
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Oz Noy: will stay at the Israeli side.
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Oz Noy: and there will be. We should build some kind of Palestinian professional Palestinian organizations
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Oz Noy: that will take over a Gaza strip.
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Oz Noy: and we’ll start to rebuild the
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Oz Noy: all the all the mess in in Gaza Strip.
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Oz Noy: and I know this is not a very good solution, and I know there is a very, not small chances that it won’t succeed.
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Oz Noy: And I know it won’t take a year or 2, or even 5.
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Oz Noy: But I believe that this is the only reasonable solution
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Oz Noy: for the day after in in Gaza Street.
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Oz Noy: and I know I know there are maybe too many political complication with this solution.
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Oz Noy: But I don’t. I don’t consider if even any political a consideration.
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Oz Noy: All, all, my, all. My view is, is only from the security
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Oz Noy: and my my knowledge and my expertise with the with the Palestinian arena.
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Oz Noy: So this is my my opinion, and about how we can.
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Oz Noy: We can see the day after in the Gaza strip.
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Oz Noy: As I said before, I really don’t know even to evaluate
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Oz Noy: what are the chances that some kind of the dissolution will be not implemented, and will be considered in this political in our political situation.
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Oz Noy: But this is how I see it.
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Daniel J Levy: And earlier, you mentioned that Shimbat has a particularly good relationship with the Egyptians. What role would you see the Egyptians playing in your vision for a day after, even if it’s indirect rather than direct rule or security involvement.
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Oz Noy: I think that practically the Egyptians are
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Oz Noy: controlling almost or not everything, but they are controlling
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Oz Noy: Gaza strip in in many ways
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Oz Noy: for the last 20 years or yeah, 20, almost 20 years.
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Oz Noy: 18 years. The only way out from Gaza Strip was through the through Egypt, Bouwaffa.
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Oz Noy: and this is the only gate outside the Gaza, strip for people, for merchandise and and everything.
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Oz Noy: And
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Oz Noy: I think that the Egyptians have still have a very heavy or big leverage
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Oz Noy: on the, on, the, on the Palestinians, in the in Gaza Strip.
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Oz Noy: They have a very or too many interests with Gaza Street.
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Oz Noy: Especially interest that the things in Gaza strip will not influence on on the on the Egypt, on the Egyptians
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Oz Noy: on the Egypt side, so I think that we should
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Oz Noy: use the Egyptians influence the Egyptians
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Oz Noy: leverage. I think we should use the Saudi Arabia influence. I think we should use the Jordanians leverage.
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Oz Noy: I don’t believe, with the Qatarians influence or leverage.
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Oz Noy: I don’t believe, with the Turkish Turkish leverage.
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Oz Noy: so this is how I see it. I think we should take the Egyptians, the Syrian, the Lebanese, the Saudi Arabians, and they should be the
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Oz Noy: the board.
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Oz Noy: Some kind of board of this.
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Oz Noy: if there is, or if we can build any some kind of a solution
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Oz Noy: they should be to. They should be involved in this solution. Of course, with the Americans, with the EU and the other other western countries.
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Daniel J Levy: And we almost have a template in the West Bank for what Israeli Palestinian security cooperation can look like. Granted. Far from perfect many issues. There. Is there any way that you could foresee some kind of similar cooperation with the Palestinian administration in Gaza.
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Daniel J Levy: taking the best of what the Israelis and the Palestinians doing together in the west bank.
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Oz Noy: Yeah, for sure, according to my my experience with the
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Oz Noy: the Palestinian security organization in the West Bank. I was there for 20 years in a row
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Oz Noy: there were years.
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Oz Noy: I’m I’m say, that clear cut the
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Oz Noy: evidence that there were years years that the Palestinians Security organization they swore more tele activity than the Isa.
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Oz Noy: Why? Why was that? Because they had the interest. They had the capability.
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Oz Noy: And then they figured out that the Hamas and the Islamic dead. The page were, threaten, the Palestinian authority
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Oz Noy: not more, but not too far from the threat, and that from the threat that they that they were threatening the Israeli side.
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Oz Noy: but
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Oz Noy: When the Palestinian authority they
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Oz Noy: They started to see that there is no any future.
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Oz Noy: There’s no any solution for the Palestinian political solution.
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Oz Noy: Things went very wrong, and since the Israeli Government started to prefer the Hamas
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Oz Noy: and prefer Hamas in Gaza strip.
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Oz Noy: just to remind you that the strategy, the Israeli strategy for years
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Oz Noy: with the Hamas in Gaza Strip was Hamas control, weak and deter?
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Oz Noy: That was the Israeli strategy.
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Oz Noy: I don’t know how you do it, how anyone can do it.
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Oz Noy: And at the end we saw.
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Oz Noy: But the Israeli strategy said that they prefer Hamas in Gaza strip, and don’t want the Palestinian authority in in Gaza, in in the West Bank.
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Oz Noy: So under this strategy, we saw that the Palestinians capabilities, security capabilities, deteriorating, and are their interest.
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Oz Noy: Were were not the same.
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Oz Noy: and the end. We are seeing these days that the Palestinian authority they are not, as far as I see it from again.
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Oz Noy: I’m not familiar with the intelligence materials, but as far as I see it, they are not working almost
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Oz Noy: any kind of terror activity in the in the west bank.
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Oz Noy: and almost 100% of the of the terror activity is working by the Isa and Idf, so they are not playing any any rule in the in the west bank, because they don’t have any interest.
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Oz Noy: So to your question, I believe
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Oz Noy: that if we can take some kind of Palestinian, a organization I don’t know how to
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Oz Noy: how to define it. Let’s let’s say that it will be some kind of Palestinian organization
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Oz Noy: that will be responsible on the for the 1st stage or phase. They will be responsible on the civilian.
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Oz Noy: They will have all the civilian responsibility in Gaza street with milestones.
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Oz Noy: 5 years, 10 years, 15 I don’t know, and with a map road
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Oz Noy: that at the end they can see that they can have the ability to take over
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Oz Noy: for all a for all Gaza Street, also on the securities issues, if they don’t
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Oz Noy: see, and they don’t believe they won’t believe that there is some kind of really and realistic
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Oz Noy: Map Road. I believe that the chances are very, very low.
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Oz Noy: It will help few years, because
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Oz Noy: the situation now it’s it can be worse.
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Paul Martin Cainer: So.
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Oz Noy: It will held. I don’t know 5 years.
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Oz Noy: but in 5 years, when the situation will be better, and they will rebuild the Gaza strip from the beginning, they will start to
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Oz Noy: and to to they will have the the initiatives and the motivation to to be independent authority.
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Oz Noy: which is very reasonable a will.
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Oz Noy: And if the Israeli side, or any kind of international and a board, or
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Oz Noy: some kind of Internet, they won’t have any kind of international background for those initiatives.
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Oz Noy: I don’t think that there is a very good chances that it will succeed, and we will face things
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Oz Noy: that are very much similar to what we are facing in the West Bank.
